#Statistics and math ain't mathing in my head

[vonn13]

Writing fics about Neil loving math is fun and all until you're crying yourself to sleep because you don't understand how tf ANOVA works

[blank-slate-jay]

Can you please do Ellie catching you and Joel kissing? Male reader of course :) Thank you in advance <3

Untold Pair

Joel Miller x Male!Reader

Word Count: 1.5k

Tags: Fluff, Kissing, Established Relationship(Ellie doesn't know), Ellie is less savage

A/N : Hey Anon, thanks for the submission. This one's just cute. I hope this is what you wanted, enjoy!

Ellie sighed heavily, making her way down the staircase. She really wanted to stay home for the day, she hated going to that god awful school she attended. Reading and Writing, Math and Statistics; including having to go multiple times a week. Really? She should be learning how to hunt and better defend herself, she thought. This commune live just wasn't cutting it.

Making her way to the living room, she tosses her bag onto the couch. She might as well fetch breakfast to cheer herself up before leaving. The school wasn't so bad. She at least had Dina, a friend of hers to keep her company during class time. For her, that was the only thing keeping her from skipping classes all together.

She made her way toward the kitchen area, picking up on the stirs and sizzling pan on the other side of the wall. Curious, she makes her away around the corner.

Joel was sitting at the corner and then there was you stationed up at the even. That was surprising to her. You rarely ever got a change to visit due to your workload in the greenhouses. So you being there, so early in the morning, was a warm welcome.

Ellie gasped, calling your name and running up to you. You hadn't even gotten a chance to say or take notice of her before her arms were wrapped around you.

"Morning to you too", you joke, patting the top of her head. “Your food is on the counter by the way.”

She pipes up and turns to look over at the untouched plate next to Joel, a growing excitement running across her face. Eggs and Bacon, "Oh fuck yeah"! She releases you and slides into the seat next Joel. She rubbed her hands together thrilled that she didn't have to eat oatmeal again.

Picking up her fork, she was about to take a stab at her food but Joel nudged her arm. She looks at him and watches as his eyes and head motion in your direction. His face displayed somewhat disbelief, like she had done something wrong. Ellie didn't understand what he wanted from her, couldn't she enjoy herself for once? It clicked for her after a few awkward moments, "OH! Thank you."

You glare over your shoulder at her, nodding as you finish up plating your own food. After your gesture, she begins to gorge down on her food, manners be damned.

Through Ellie's muffled chewing, Joel wipes away at his mouth with a napkin. He pushes himself to his feet and grabs his plate too. He walks over to the sink, dumping his plate in. "You didn't have to do all this”, he says, pointing out your cooking.

You shook your head, your lips curling up, "No it's...I don't mind doing this for you two”. Besides, Ellie told me you tried making my finest last week.”

“Ok,” he starts, feeling put on the spot. He tried explaining, “That was…”

“...a terrible attempt,” Ellie remarks with a satisfied 'mph' as she bites into her food. “I’ll give you props for trying, but man it was burnt to a crisp.” 

He widens his eyes at her, the girl’s focus back on the last bit of food on her plate. She couldn’t just butt in and then leave the older man stranded, left with you glancing at him, awaiting an explanation. 

“She’s funny, ain't’ she?” Joel tried making a smooth recovery but his embarrassment was as clear as day. 

You gave the man mercy, instead of toying with him further, “Next time you need a chef, Miller. Just ask,” you patt the man’s chest, slipping right by him to take a seat. Fuck, he loved when you touched him. 

Ellie finishes up only wishing she could have some more. “Are you gonna come later,” she asked, already knowing what the answer would be. “Don’t think so. Got a lot to do today, probably not getting home until after dark.”

Slightly bummed, she hums, taking out her dismay by pushing her plate away. You just never had the time these days, it was disheartening for Joel and Ellie since you were about the only person in Jackson who made them feel welcomed; aside from Tommy and Maria.

“If it makes you feel better, I can walk you to school,” you suggested, granting you a smile from the girl. Every chance she got was a win. “Joel?” 

The man looked in awe, “Sure I was…going to pick up something at the store anyway”. There was a level of uncertainty behind his voice, a lie perhaps? You didn’t bring it up just happy you’d get a bit more time with Joel. 

They packed themselves to leave, you reminded Ellie to check her bag for all the essentials she needed. She assured you that she had everything she needed, brushing off your concern as ‘parental instincts’.

No matter, the three of you were out of the home and walking through the neighborhood. Each one of you trailing slowly, subconsciously using the snow on the ground as an excuse to keep extending the conversation; to slow down your pace. 

Only thing was, this method only made splitting with you painful. Preventing the inevitable worked that way whether the two liked it or not, you’d be gone for sometime. 

They made a stop on the sidewalk, deep into the town of Jackson where everything was booming with working people. It was time to split and say they're farewells. 

“So, when can we see you again,” Joel asked. 

You shrugged, “I can make time in a few days. Someone should be covering for me sometime this week.” 

Joel nods, rubbing his enclosed hands to warn off the cold and the lonely feeling that'll come about in your absences. Still, he had something, that was better than nothing.

“We should watch a movie, you heard about Vansien Viper 3, everyone at school is talking about it. I really really wanna watch it.” Ellie pronounces.

Your eyes widen, “I’m down. Sounds like it could be good.”

“I’ve heard the first one is good but that the second one sucksss,” she leans her head back to exaggerate her point. 

Joel scoffs, “I’m sure it ain’ that bad. I…haven’t ever finished watching the second one yet but that could work too. We don't have the actual cd, do we?”

Ellie establishes, “Don’t worry about that, I got us covered.”

What did she mean by that exactly, her smug tone made bells go off in Joel’s head, she was up to something. He raised one of his brows, seeing if he could discern her words. “And how exactly do you plan on doin' that," he asked.

The suspicion in Joel was evidently rising, she said more than should’ve been said. It was time to call it quits. Ellie quickly swept you into a hug, completely ignoring Joel’s question. She lets you go before backing away, the girl says goodbye to you, picking up her pace as Joel takes a few steps toward her. He tried to call for her but she dipped around the corner of a building, out of view and completely away from being confronted. Chasing after her would just be embarrassing, especially in front of you.

“Have some faith in her Joel,” you jokingly poked at him. 

He turned to you shaking his head; a smile crawling up his face, “Don’t tell me you’re on her side.”

“Whatever she is up to, I’m sure it won’t be troublesome.” 

For all you knew she could be bribing someone into giving her what she wanted, likely mimicking the stories Joel would tell her during his days in the Boston QZ. Joel wouldn’t want her following his old ways.

You let out a heavy sigh, “I should get going though, don’t wanna hold you up much longer.” Ironic you say that since Joel felt it worked the other way around. However, the man's presence was nearly enough to make you discontinue your duties. Joel nodded, upset you had to leave, he wasn’t going to let you go without sharing a kiss. 

He pulls you in by your arms and locks his lips with yours, lingering on your taste knowing he wouldn’t be with you for some time. Standing there, some people were likely looking on momentarily before going about their day. Except for one person, Ellie. 

She pretended to run off, giving the impression that she was off to school. She instead was peaking just around the corner she’d hid behind, curious if Joel had separated from you. The opposite was true, she was witnessing what your dynamic truly was for the first time. You two weren’t just close friends, as she initially believed, but rather lovers. It all made sense though, the small gestures, the look you both gave each other; she must’ve misinterpreted them, somehow.

She pulls herself back into full cover after seeing the both of you release one another. She let the two of you share your moment together, beginning to finally head to school. She couldn’t stop thinking about the possibilities of your relationship with Joel. Could it mean that you might move in with them, if so then how soon? Ok, maybe she was getting ahead of herself, still her thoughts bombarded her. You and Joel as her guardians, if there was something in the commune she could get used to, that was one of them.

[nascentgoth]

An interesting addendum to this is AI, another big fear people have had cropping up recently. In online communities, people are mostly worried about art theft, which is fair and reasonable, but I do know from experience that a lot of people are afraid of artificial intelligence uprisings in the same way that people are afraid of the cancel causing GMO carrots that make you infertile or whatever.

The way AI works from my understanding with Machine Learning classes I took in college is that it is basically applied statistics. It reduces input information to numbers (something that is particularly easy with pixels and words, which is why you see so many AIs do art and writing), and then runs it through a system of equations, transformations, and such until a model is made. Then, these days, the model is also trained on inputs while it is being used to produce drawings or writing.

So basically, AI is just a lot of math done at high volumes, and to say that it is sentient as I've seen people argue is kinda out there, considering that it's a machine that draws a billion lines. This is a gross oversimplification but it cuts through the marketing at gets the point across, this ain't skynet.

BUT you should absolutely be scared of AI because almost every large corporation has their own, and whatever we have access to in open source forms, I assure you, is nothing compared to their proprietary resources. And the possibilities there are horrifying. What happens when Facebook can make a voice clip that accurately mimics a person's voice so much that a loved one can't tell the difference? Or when companies can sell predictions of how an employees temperament might be based on data LEGALLY harvested from social media? This is just off the top of my head, and I'm sure that there are other, more sinister uses that I couldn't even dream of.

AI is a tool that you and I don't have access to. It's another powerful thing that the elites have that they can use against the general populace en masse. You should absolutely be worried about that.

Funny how that works

[carbonwriter]

It's (not) a numbers game?

Knowledge, not information. Evoke, not instruct

I'm not the best at numbers. What I mean to say is that I'm actually quite good with numbers, just not the "do it in your head" part. The way I think about it is that for hundreds if not thousands of years, we've been able to use tools to mitigate the need to do calculations in your head. Why does my head need to know how to calculate the square-root of 22? Don't get me wrong, I'm not in any way anti-maths, far from it; it's super important to be able to have a random-stab-in-the-dark as to what an answer might be. Kind of like a sanity check. I guess you could call it an estimation. I may not know what the square root of 22 is, but I can tell you it's certainly less than 22! I'm a firm believer that if there's a tool to help, then you should at least try to use it. Sure, if the tool is too complicated, then you either need a different tool or maybe just give up on the calculation bit & guess, I mean estimate.

Now, with all that unnecessary preamble out of the way, why am I talking about numbers? Like it or not, we, and by that I mean humanity, in a broader sense, use numbers. Numbers are everywhere. And by everywhere, I mean that it's baked into our language.

I remember watching a documentary by Dr Jonathan Miller back in the 90s. He was attempting to unpick the origins of language. Further, he wanted to reconstruct what the original root language may have looked like. He presented a delightful mix of science and a philosophical, based view. One particular detail that struck me was around the use of numbers. He deduced that the root language may have had words for "one", "two", "few", "many". Not exactly comprehensive, but it perhaps gives an insight into the fundamental importance of numbers.

With numbers being so important to us, it is remarkable how easily we choose to ignore them. It happens all the time. It almost seems to be baked into us.

Let's take the Climate Emergency. The raw data and analysis is 100% clear. If we do nothing, then we are all screwed. Screwed in a find-another-planet kind of screwed! Yet in the face of that, whilst most of us are making slight changes, those changes are lethargic at best.

If numbers are such a basic part of our psyche, why don't we act based on them?

Remember that early language bit? Those people who were figuring out how to take thoughts and turn them into noises that could be repeated to others? Yeah, that bit. Well before that was all clearly resolved, those very early people were most likely not at the top of the food-chain. Archaeological evidence suggests that they were quite sensibly sheltering in caves.

You see, here is the point. If they were to look at the statistical likelihood of getting trashed by a nasty animal, then they wouldn't have taken a step out of that cave. But they did. Sure, they were careful about, but despite the numbers, they still made that step.

I think those wanting to evoke change often miss this point. All the numbers in the world, whilst provoking thought, do not appeal to that step-out-of-the-cave instinct.

Sometimes the numbers are indeed enough. Most of us have seen the massive increase in energy costs, and after seeing if we can do the quick-fix of moving to a cheaper tariff, the mathematical element of us may simply conclude that another way to reduce our energy cost is just to use less. The numbers have worked.

Numbers work on a local scale; "one", "two", "few", "many".

However, and it's a planet-sized "however", what if you want to prompt change on a global basis? Numbers just ain't going to cut it.

Global change doesn't need numbers. Global change needs to tap into whatever made us take that numerically stupid step outside of our cave.

Having said that, the advantage that we have over our ancestors is that we have raw data to help aid that step-outside decision. Which can be a fantastically complicated problem too.

When I was a student living in Rotherham, I lodged with a guy who sold The Encyclopaedia Britannica. It was 1992 and although The Internet (yes it had a capital T back then) was around, the World Wide Web wasn't. The extent of searching was via a curious service called Gopher. It was a "thing" that jumped from server-to-server looking for whatever you asked for. Search engines hadn't even been invented yet. If you wanted to know something, then you needed to connect to a known server and manually find it. You get the picture. Anyway, at that point, The Encyclopaedia Britannica was the definitive guide of knowledge. Sure, it didn't cover everything, but you knew that at the very least the information in it had gone through the hands of an editor. I remember the guy, who's name escapes me (if you're reading this, I'm sorry about that but I have fond memories of you. I remember chatting about the new book Good Omens whilst sitting in the tiny back room on the broken 3-seater, with the insert-money-pay-phone in the corner. I also remember you getting sunburn standing all day trying to sell copies – if you read this, get in touch). It was an investment to buy the collection; you were investing in "knowledge".

Back then there was a sense, at least from my perspective, that you needed to invest something to get knowledge. Be that time or money.

That is not the case now.

Information seems to drip out of our phones and computers. Out of our TVs, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram… (etc.).

However, there is a distinction between "Information" and "Knowledge".

Anyway, I seem to have somehow drifted off my point. Oh yes, my point. Back then in the cave, action was based more on instinct rather than hard facts and knowledge. Yet that instinct moved us all forward as a species.

As a collective, we all need to move forward. I am not talking about whether to buy Salad Creme or Mayonnaise. I'm talking about the large-scale problems.

Large-scale problems need more than numbers. Sure, numbers help to define the scale of the problem. To remove the vagaries and to provide an indisputable definition. But I think change requires something more.

If we are to move forward on these problems, we need to not only "instruct" but also need to "evoke" change.

In a world driven by data and information, it's not enough to "know" that I should use my car less. I need to "feel" that I should use my car less.

original source (by me)

read.carbonwriter.net

[tombeane-blog]

Hi, I'm 79 And You're Not

Here's what I tell my grandsons when they get snippy about me being 'an old man'.

"I've got something going for me you don't", I say.

"I know that I will live to be 79 years old - you don't."

The average life expectancy number is meaningless.

It is meaningless to you and meaningless to me. It has absolutely no value to either of us as individuals except for the costs of insurance or how much money you have to take out of your IRA every year.

And it constantly changes throughout your life.

The life expectancy for a 2 year old male in America is totally different than the life expectancy for a 20 year old male or a 50 year old male.

And if the male lives in Timbogostan, well, that's a whole different kettle of statistics.

Right now, my life expectancy number says I will live to the age of 90 years and 1 month. But if I make it to 85, it increases to 92 years and 11 months.

Ain't Math Cool? The longer I do make it, the longer I can make it. Some people live to 110. Might as well be me.

It's just common sense that the principle factors that determine individual life expectancy are: Lifestyle Choices, Risky Behavior, Just Plain Luck and Genetics.

Lifestyle Choices: Well into my 50's and 60's I smoked. Cigarettes, cigars and pipes, or, when I was 8 years old, dry leaves wrapped in newspaper.

My eating habits and food choices have always been atrocious and I will probably die with a cheeseburger in my hand, one in my stomach and one already digested.

And let's just say that during a life with little self discipline I drank my fair share of alcohol - along with yours, hers and that guy's over there.

Exercise? We don't need no stinking exercise! Until I retired, I never picked up anything heavier than a six pack.

Risky Behavior: Most people think of this as driving a race car, being a lumberjack or joining the French Foreign Legion. But if we redefine 'risky' as good old stupid behavior.... well, count me into that club as a founding member.

At least my mom might think that things that qualify as 'risky' would be like - water skiing while being towed by a car down a canal in South Florida at 60 mph, or, scaling up a 40-50 foot cliff face in the Italian Alps drunk, or, sitting on the hood of a swerving car on a gravel road at 20-30 mph with three teenage buddies trying to see who will fall off first. (I still carry a belly scar after losing that one.)

I haven't lived life. It's more like I survived life.

Just Plain Luck: When a monkey drops a coconut from a tree, once in a great while, it hits someone in the head and kills them. Sucks to be that guy.

Looks like extraordinarily good luck canceled out a life of risky stupidity, but why hasn't a life of bad eating, drinking and smoking paired with indolence, inertia, goldbricking, lolligagging and loafing killed me yet?

So why?

Gotta be Genetics: There is a legend that a Scottish Clan Chief almost had a rebellion from his clansmen because they thought he had gone 'soft'. Why? They were sleeping outside on the Scottish Moor on a cold, wet, rainy winter night and they caught him using a rock for a pillow.

Thanks Mom. Thanks Dad. I owe you one.

[whimsically-ominously-auspice]

True. And finding the right answer in itself is a reward

Don't reward for being correct if you try this method -- reward for completion.

So say you have 20 problems in say math... They guess 5 wrong... So they have to solve them by hand.

So you reward Upon completion...

So you can give a 20 minute break or you can give s 15 minutes break since they guessed 15 right, But if you use the latter then don't use it unless they have gotten more than half the problems correct. Otherwise it's a punishment unless it's like a 100 problem sheet.... But even so ... Dam they would need a fucking break because that is a lot of work!!

Im always told not to use food as a reward system... But you can use treats... A lollipop or miniature piece of candy

Oh! It reminds me! If your child has a hard time studying for tests!

Gum is a simple trick. Or a candy they can or will suck on for hours.

So you assign a flavor to each subject.

So chemistry is spearmint

Calculus is big red/cinnamon

Math is bubble gum

So when they do math they have the bubble gum flavor always

Then trash the gum and go for the cinnamon for the next subject

A 15 piece pack of gum is $2 that will last more than two weeks.

So the initial investment in your child and the upkeep is $2 times the subjects... So 4... $8 every 3 weeks.

That's not a bad deal. And you really just need it for the subjects they struggle in so if you have multiple kids...

But of course you can't let only Steve have gum because he struggles... When you have 2 other kids... So you let the other two wake up with a refreshing mint gum... Let them have one piece each in the morning or even rip it in half...

Then let Steve have a half piece also during his struggle subject.

*not picking on steves.. I was gonna name all the kids but... I blanked so..

I struggle in math because I need to apply the math in word problems that make sense... Dude has 14 feet of fencing and wants to fence his yard... No that isn't real. Dude wants so much of a fucking yard and dude is gonna go buy more fencing. I can't believe that shit was in a college textbook or we fucking used it at the University of New Mexico. Dam tried to make me fail math. With some stupid shit. Too critical. Leaving dude to his own cause he ain't right in the head. Too realistic. Couldn't help the dude. I wanted to just stand there and look at him to figure WTF it was. Cause that was not human.

The whole text book was written that way.

"Just forget the words and put it in an algebraic equation, pick one from the board. Come on baby, you can do this, you promised." My soulmate

Me: okay but im gonna fuck this mother fucker up. Just wait until i find him. He's dead mother fucking meat. Okay stupid wants this shit where over here. Why i dont fucking know. Don't want to, he's stupid. Now i know me an algebraic equation that will fit because the teacher told me so... I am gonna guess... I'm actually gonna guess!! Using the intuition God gave me because oh my fucking God!!! Okay read this again to see if it will fit to see if I am write. Skim... Okay yeah i got it. I fucking hate this babe. I almost want to kill myself for having to talk to this"

"Babe You're not talking to it, you're talking to me"

"Yeah put this puzzle in your head and see how much life it brings you because it doesn't!!"

He always laughs

"Don't laugh I'll look stupid! Im in class all laughing dumb to myself"

"So. There's nothing wrong with that"

So i would laugh... He would laugh through me.

We had a substitute teacher one day, he taught statistics which was fucking easy because it's all like doing math wrong and he said "you must really love math"

I replied "im gonna kill this fucking text book" through my gritted teeth.

"What problem are you on?"

"30 i just finished 29 and OMG"

He went and read the problem and sat back and laughed and laughed "I see the problem!" Then he walked over to see my work "can I just look And see what you did?"

"I fucking got it. I'm quite sure but OMFG. This is ridiculous!! Who the Hell is even writing these questions?!!?"

"You cuss a lot. You got kids?"

"Only during math. I mean yeah"

He asked the class who else struggled because the way the problems were written. Dude had sheep and wanted to pen them. 55 sheep and 17 yards of fencing. What are the sides and lengths of the fence? Some stupid shit. His barn was 9 feet wide and wanted to use his barn to pen in as well.

There was a mathematical formula we had to use...

20% of the class had problems with the way it was written.

10% understood why we had issues but didn't really have as much as a difficult time as i did. But sometimes wanted to punch the text book in the head -- not my words, actually.

The rest were failing or were just fine about half and half. But more like 2/3 were just not getting it... And a whole side of the room was getting help from a tutor that was normally paid to help people. But she took her class time to do her homework to help others instead.

So if your kid is struggling... There could be a legit reason like the way a textbook is written.

To my knowledge the text book is now banned at UNM due to two excellent teachers taking their time to have it banned. Not that I matters but I want to mention both are Jewish. In New Mexico that is rare as most are Catholic

Im not full blown gonna go into religion... But Jewish people don't believe that some dude said we can fuck shit up. Say sorry and move on. In Jewish religion, we gotta fix our mistakes and try to make the world better and safer, because if we don't, no one else will.

And in NYC they are 61% Jewish. So NYC is doing well in keeping the amount of bunkers for kidnapping empty.

Because no matter the religion.. In NYC all are affected by Jewish religion. Schools have every single Jewish holiday off from school. We also ahd Christmas and Easter off

So as a child I always wanted to know more. I wanted to know more about these Jewish people that got us out of school so often. Why so much happiness they had? Celebrations more than Christians??

Any way point..

School is almost over for most..

So keep on breathing, some just have a few weeks and some have about a month and a week...

Except for year round school, I'm not sure how they run on their schedule.

Y'all are gonna make it. If you're trying you're best and your kid is, too, then they're not gonna fail.

Keep on at it!!

Y'all are gonna be alright.

Y'all beating your kids, we will see you this week. And it is gonna be helpful.

When your kid asks you a question or to help with something, instead of immediately giving them the answer, ask what they think the answer is and why they think that. Then do the same with the right answer, and over time this will help them with critical thinking and problem solving.