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sciforce · 5 years ago

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Evolution of Forecasting from the Stone Age to Artificial Intelligence

Each nation has its ancient monument or a pagan holiday — the relic of the days when our ancestors tried to persuade their gods to give them more rain, no rain, better harvest, fewer wars and many other things considered essential for survival. However, neither Stonehenge nor jumping over fire could predict the gods’ reaction. It was a totally reactive world with no forecast. However, as time passed, people started to look into the future more inquisitively trying to understand what would be waiting for them. The science of prediction has emerged.

In this article, we’ll see how prediction evolved over time shaping our technologies, expectations and the worldview.

Naïve Forecasting

Naïve forecasting is an estimating technique in which the last period’s values are used as this period’s forecast, without adjusting them or attempting to establish causal factors. In other words, a naive forecast is just the most recently observed value. It is calculated by the formula

Ft+k=yt

where at the time t, the k-step-ahead naive forecast (Ft+k) equals the observed value at time t (yt).

In Ancient times, before such formulas, communities typically relied on observed patterns and recognized sequences of events for weather forecasting. The remnants of these techniques we can see in our everyday lives: we can foresee the next Monday routine based on the previous Monday, or expect spring to come in March (even though such expectations rely more on our imagination than the recorded seasonal changes).

In industry and commerce, it is used mainly for comparison with the forecasts generated by the better (sophisticated) techniques. However, sometimes this is the best that can be done for many time series including most stock price data. It also helps to baseline the forecast by tracking naïve forecast over time and estimating the forecast value added to the planning process. It reveals how difficult products are to forecast, whether it is worthwhile to spend time and effort on forecasting with more sophisticated methods and how much that method adds to the forecast.

Even if it is not the most accurate forecasting method, it provides a useful benchmark for other approaches.

Statistical Forecasting

Statistical forecasting is a method based on a systematic statistical examination of data representing past observed behavior of the system to be forecast, including observations of useful predictors outside the system. In simple terms, it uses statistics based on historical data to project what could happen out in the future.

As the late 19th and early 20th centuries were stricken by a series of crises that lead to severe panics — in 1873, 1893, 1907, and 1920 — and also substantial demographic change, as countries moved from being predominantly agricultural to being industrial and urban, people were struggling to find stability in the volatile world. Statistics-based forecasting invented at the beginning of the 20th century showed that economic activity was not random, but followed discernable patterns that could be predicted.

The two major statistical forecasting approaches are time series forecasting and model-based forecasting.

Time Series forecasting is a short-term purely statistical forecasting method that predicts short-term changes based on historical data. It is working on time (years, days, hours, and minutes) based data, to find hidden insights. The simplest technique of Time Series Forecasting is a simple moving average (SMA). It is calculated by adding up the last ’n’ period’s values and then dividing that number by ’n’. So the moving average value is then used as the forecast for next period.

Model-Based Forecasting is more strategic and long-term, and it accounts for changes in the business environment and events with little data. It requires management. Model-based forecasting techniques are similar to conventional predictive models which have independent and dependent variables, but the independent variable is now time. The simplest of such methods is the linear regression. Given a training set, we estimate the values of regression coefficients to forecast future values of the target variable.

With time the basic statistical methods of forecasting have seen significant improvements in approaches, forming the spectra of data-driven forecasting methods and modeling techniques.

Data-Driven Forecasting

Data-driven forecasting refers to a number of time-series forecasting methods where there is no difference between a predictor and a target. The most commonly employed data-driven time series forecasting methods are Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA Holt-Winters methods.

Exponential Smoothing

Exponential smoothing was first suggested in the statistical literature without citation to previous work by Robert Goodell Brown in 1956. Exponential smoothing is a way of “smoothing” out data by removing much of the “noise” from the data by giving a better forecast. It assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the observation gets older:

y^x=α⋅yx+(1−α)⋅y^x−1

where we’ve got a weighted moving average with two weights: α and 1−α.

This simplest form of exponential smoothing can be used for short-term forecast with a time series that can be described using an additive model with constant level and no seasonality.

Holt-Winters Filtering

Charles C. Holt proposed a variation of exponential smoothing in 1957 for a time series that can be described using an additive model with increasing or decreasing trend and no seasonality. For a time series that can be described using an additive model with increasing or decreasing trend and seasonality, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, or Triple Exponential Smoothing, would be more accurate. It is an improvement of Holt’s algorithms that Peter R. Winters offered in 1960.

The idea behind this algorithm is to apply exponential smoothing to the seasonal components in addition to level and trend. The smoothing is applied across seasons, e.g. the seasonal component of the 3rd point into the season would be exponentially smoothed with the one from the 3rd point of last season, 3rd point two seasons ago, etc.

Here we can see evident seasonal trends that are supposed to continue in the proposed forecast.

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), or Box-Jenkins model

ARIMA is a statistical technique that uses time series data to predict future. It is are similar to exponential smoothing in that it is adaptive, can model trends and seasonal patterns, and can be automated. However, ARIMA models are based on autocorrelations (patterns in time) rather than a structural view of level, trend and seasonality. All in all, ARIMA models take trends, seasonality, cycles, errors and non-stationary aspects of a data set into account when making forecasts. ARIMA checks stationarity in the data, and whether the data shows a constant variance in its fluctuations over time.

The idea behind ARIMA is that the final residual should look like white noise; otherwise there is information available in the data to extract.

ARIMA models tend to perform better than exponential smoothing models for longer, more stable data sets and not as well for noisier, more volatile data.

While many of time-series models can be built in spreadsheets, the fact that they are based on historical data makes them easily automated. Therefore, software packages can produce large amounts of these models automatically across large data sets. In particular, data can vary widely, and the implementation of these models varies as well, so automated statistical software can assist in determining the best fit on a case by case basis.

Regression Models

A step forward compared to pure time series models, dynamic regression models allow incorporating causal factors such as prices, promotions and economic indicators into forecasts. The models combine standard OLS (“Ordinary Least Squares”) regression (as offered in Excel) with the ability to use dynamic terms to capture trend, seasonality and time-phased relationships between variables.

A dynamic regression model lends insight into relationships between variables and allows for “what if” scenarios. For example, if we study the relationship between sales and price, the model allows us to create forecasts under varying price scenarios, such as “What if we raise the price?” “What if we lower it?” Generating these alternative forecasts can help you to determine an effective pricing strategy.

A well-specified dynamic regression model captures the relationship between the dependent variable (the one you wish to forecast) and one or more (in cases of linear or multiple regressions, respectively) independent variables. To generate a forecast, you must supply forecasts for your independent variables. However, some independent variables are not under your control — think of weather, interest rates, price of materials, competitive offerings, etc. — you need to keep in mind that poor forecasts for the independent variables will lead to poor forecasts for the dependent variable.

Forecasting demand for electricity using data on the weather (e.g. when people are likely to run their heat or AC).

In contrast to time series forecasting, regression models require knowledge of the technique and experience in data science. Building a dynamic regression model is generally an iterative procedure, whereby you begin with an initial model and experiment with adding or removing independent variables and dynamic terms until you arrive upon an acceptable model. Everyone who ever had a look at data or computer science knows that linear regression is in fact the basic prediction model in machine learning, which brings us to the final destination of our journey — Artificial Intelligence.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are considered the tools that can revolutionize forecasting. An AI that can take into account all possible factors that might influence the forecast gives business strategists and planners breakthrough capabilities to extract knowledge from massive datasets assembled from any number of internal and external sources. The application of machine learning algorithms in the so called predictive modeling unearths insights and identifies trends missed by traditional human-configured forecasts. Besides, AI can simultaneously test and learn, constantly refining hundreds of advanced models. The optimal model can then be applied at a highly granular SKU-location level to generate a forecast that improves accuracy.

Neural networks

Among multiple models and techniques for prediction in ML and AI inventory, we have chosen one that is closest to our notion of a truly independent artificial intelligence. Artificial neural network (ANN) is a machine learning approach that models the human brain and consists of a number of artificial neurons. Neural networks can derive meaning from complicated or imprecise data and are used to detect the patterns and trends in the data, which are not easily detectable either by humans or by machines.

We can make use of NNs in any type of industry, as they are very flexible and also don’t require any algorithms. They are regularly used to model parts of living organisms and to investigate the internal mechanisms of the brain.

The simplest neural network is a fully Connected Model which consists of a series of fully connected layers. In a fully connected layer each neuron is connected to every neuron in the previous layer, and each connection has its own weight. Such model resembles a simple regression model that takes one input and will spit out one output. It basically takes the price from the previous day and forecasts the price of the next day. Such models repeat the previous values with a slight shift. However, fully connected models are not able to predict the future from the single previous value.

With the latest emergence of Deep Learning techniques, neural networks have seen significant improvements in terms of accuracy and ability to tackle the most sophisticated and complex tasks. Recently introduced recurrent neural networks deal with sequence problems. They can retain a state from one iteration to the next by using their own output as input for the next step. In programming terms, this is like running a fixed program with certain inputs and some internal variables. Such models can learn to reproduce the yearly shape of the data and don’t have the lag associated with a simple fully connected feed-forward neural network.

More than forecasting

With the development of Artificial Intelligence, forecasting as we knew it has transformed itself into a new phenomenon. Traditional forecasting is a technique that takes data and predicts the future value for the data looking at its unique trends. Artificial Intelligence and Big Data introduced predictive analysis that factors in a variety of inputs and predicts the future behavior — not just a number. In forecasting, there is no separate input or output variable but in the predictive analysis you can use several input variables to arrive at an output variable.

While forecasting is insightful and certainly helpful, predictive analytics can provide you with some pretty helpful people analytics insights. People analytics leaders have definitely caught on.

#artificial intelligence #forecasting

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data-true-blog · 7 years ago

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Dialogus - A dialogue engine for Unity

I’ve been working on a dialogue engine for Unity (specifically, 2018.2.6) over the past few weeks that can be used in two different projects. I still have some work to do but I feel like I have a good starting point to discuss and post about it. If you want to see my progress, here’s a link to the Trello board I’m working on.

I’ve been working on a little thing called Dialogus which, as I said earlier, is a dialogue engine. It provides a large part of the back end for dialogue systems other than the actual dialogue UI itself. That part is up to the specific game to implement for things such as animations on the sprites, text animations, dialogue boxes, etc. Dialogus takes care of a lot of the heavy back end issues that are seen when trying to program your own dialogue tool in Unity. There are still a few things I want to add to the tool before I push it out and I want to test it on a larger game.

Originally, at least for one of the projects, I was going to use a system similar to what Brackey’s describes in this video. While this is in no way a bad system, if you’re using it for an expansive project, it can become quite cumbersome and disorganized. A few people from my college also tried implementing a variation of Brackey’s tool but quickly found that nesting things became ugly and worked poorly in the long run.

I knew I needed to write a tool that can be used in different types of games with different requirements. The project I am working on for Fishhead (a currently unnamed 2.5D platformer with dating sim elements) requires that it be useful in cut scenes and player/NPC interactions. For The Souls’ Sonata, from Mirror Studio, it’s going to be used in a visual novel setting. This means the engine will have to be optimized for lots of text, dialogue, and voice over work. In both cases, the dialogue tree presents a real challenge as it is the crux of both games.

Editor Features

The editor for Dialogus features a few things: a character creator, a variable declarer, and the all-essential dialogue tree editor. I’ll talk about each of these individually. I apologize now for only showing screenshots; I’m not too aware on the best way to record and make such in-engine presentations look good.

Character Creator

The character creator is a simple, lightweight aspect of Dialogus that has the sole purpose of containing each of the character’s names and sprites. It is a simple, inspector-based gadget that can automatically find the sprites of the character or allow you as the user to input your own sprites. I plan to expand this aspect to use custom folder paths but for now it works simply.

Dialogue Tree Editor

The Dialogue Tree Editor is the most interesting part to the entire tool. It allows users to build their trees up without code. The trees only rely on the Character Creator tool if you have sprites you want to use. You can still use the tool without a CHAR_X file or files, it just exists for the sake of making life easier when linking sprites to specific instances.

The editor currently supports three types of nodes: start, conversation, and choice.

The start node is the simplest of the three: it acts as the initial position to the rest of the tree. If all goes well, it should hopefully be Node 0 in the tree but some things happen and it isn’t. The editor does not allow you to place any other nodes until the start node has been placed.

The conversation node is the pivotal node as it is what most games will rely on. I also bet it will be the most nodes in a single tree unless you have a questionnaire or something similar.

The choice node is the next most interesting node and is the last of the three to have been implemented. The choice node currently supports up to 8 possible branches/choices/paths. Below is a sample from a quick test from within the editor.

Variable Editor

The Variable Editor is a very simple tool, similar to that of the Character Creator. It allows you to create and initialize variables to specific values. Say you want a money counter or to see if the player has a certain item or if you want paths to be limited based off of a relationship with a given character, you’d use the variable editor to make these. As well, you can use these in the connection editor to direct pathing as stated just over a sentence ago.

Connection Editor

The Connection Editor is a simple little window similar to that of the variable editor. You left-click on a connection and you can pull up the window to it. Here, you can add any number of conditions to the path as you’d like. For right now, the conditions must all be met but I do plan on allowing conditionals where one of the conditions need to be met. This will be implemented sooner than later, in fact.

Back-end Information

Dialogus uses NetwonSoft’s JSON library as information is represented in the JSON format (because XML is just a pain for this case IMO). This is the library’s only dependency as it has been tested for years at this point and is widely trusted for JSON de-serialization.

Why not use Unity’s in-engine deserialize components? Simply because it’s support is far more limited. As the tool is further in development, and better ideas are found/implemented, the tool may switch to the lighter-weight Unity packages.

Dialogus has it’s own loader/tree traversal methods that you can call. The only function programmers need to worry about is NextNode(Node).

How does this differentiate from tools like Fungus?

Fungus is a general purpose engine that has the ability to be used in visual novels and games alike. The issue I found with it is it relies on Lua programming and it’s organization for conversations can be quite cumbersome. Dialogus removes a bit of these issues because it allows for each node to be seen and edited rather than hunting inside each of the nodes to find the specific conversation piece.

Why should I use this tool instead of something like RenPy?

You don’t have to use Python.

...

I kid, Python is a good language for certain tasks. It’s a tool in the tool belt that should always be considered.

In reality, it’s a good way to enable freedom for visual novel games. RenPy I find to be limiting in its own right. It’s documentation is something I also have an issue with as it is lacking compared to other resources. Of course, this will be improved over time hopefully. While it’s great for some types of visual novels, it is limited in its capacity to serve other functions for more ambitious VNs. Unity affords you such freedom to experiment and write your own systems. This tool takes care of the daunting task and question of “how do I write a dialogue tree in Unity?”

Are there any plans to support animations in the dialogues?

There are plans to support basic animation stuff (like ‘shaking,’ ‘jumping,’ etc.) however it’s a very, very low priority. There are better things that the tool can use over animations at this point but they may very well come.

What do I have to write/create?

The only scripts you have to write are a manager script to interact with Dialogus’s external facing tools. You have access to Dialogus’s node types (using enum values) as the traverser returns a generic Node object rather than a specific instance of the node. You also have to make your own GUI system (supplying Text for strings and RawImage objects for sprites). Dialogus acts as a way to hold data you need for interactions.

At the very end of the development, I plan on writing a basic dialogue manager so that way people who are not programming savy can quickly implement their dialogue trees while they wait for programmers to free up.

When will the tool be available on the Unity Asset store and will it be paid for?

Not too sure, but it isn’t gong to take another good month or two of development to get there when it’ll be available but I’m even more unsure of whether or not to monetize the tool. It will definitely go to the Asset store once I feel it is ready though.

Challenges Ahead

There are a few things that I’m particularly seeing as obstacles the tool will have to overcome:

Translation/multi-language games: Currently Dialogus only supports one tree language at a time be it English, Arabic, Japanese, Spanish, or Russian. I need to solve the issue of how to have one tree with the ability to use any language. This may come down to reworking many of the lower systems in the tool itself.

Optimizations: While general optimizations can (and very much will) happen, the issue comes down to optimizing how files are saved, loaded, read, etc. These could potentially throw off older versions of Dialogus and prevent newer versions from being able to read old data. The basic solution to this is use only the version you have downloaded on the project but I want to do some more testing on this.

External Issues: My biggest fear comes down to managing the project properly. I’m still just a student at this point so exams and the like come first but, more importantly, dealing with burnout. With so many tasks to do outside of this project, Dialogus will be a slow growing tool until the end of this semester.

Breaking the Unix development style: I want Dialogus to be an amazing dialogue engine. That means I don’t want it to do anything else other than that. Some features will have to be tossed out that I plan, or others want, simply because it breaks the Unix cycle. I’m one person working on this right now.

#unity3d #unitytools #dialogus #the souls' sonata #mirror studio #fishhead #dialogue engine #c-sharp

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davids69811 · 4 years ago

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Digital Kanban Boards Can Assist the Manufacturing Refine

In a time when production processes and monitoring systems are indicated to reduce the cost of production, we are coming out with new as well as cutting-edge modern technologies to do simply that. A digital Kanban board can aid makers, retailers, and every other field of the business world that has jobs, procedures, and manufacturing cycles keep an eye on their production and minimize their prices while doing it. Kanban Coaching

Before exploring exactly how these electronic boards are helping manufacturing processes, we initially need to review specifically what a Kanban system is. Kanban is a system created in Japan in the 1940s that was meant to associate lean manufacturing, specifically through making a graph of the manufacturing procedure, as well as developing activating events at which particular points would happen. This took all of the guess-work out of the production process. Rather than considering stock and also making or getting even more when it looked low, a company would certainly mention outright that when stock struck 300 devices, manufacturing would continue as well as bring back the stock degrees. Furthermore, if supply went over a certain top bound, after that production would certainly stop until degrees were lowered to the lower limitation.

Firms still use this system of lean manufacturing and the Kanban approach today. Nonetheless, with manufacturing degrees a lot higher than they were in the middle part of the century, we are facing troubles of recognizing exactly where we are in the production procedure. It is tough to have a person go and count inventory degrees, and also existing ERP systems are not established up to produce aesthetic displays of when we require to obtain more stock or require to halt production. This is where the electronic aesthetic Kanban systems come into play Free Kanban Board.

These digital systems resolve on the internet platforms that allows just about any individual that needs the info to be able to discover it. Boards are set up to show precisely where manufacturing as well as the procedure is. Special screens, icons, as well as charts can be contributed to produce additional understanding by a variety of various customers, and firms can transform the boards to fit their manufacturing requirements and also diction. This ensures that the system works equally as it is intended to for every private business.

Visual Management Solution as well as Software

Using visual management systems is a reliable method for companies to deploy information without making use of created guidelines. It is a prominent strategy that makes best use of the quality as well as effectiveness of their communication via aesthetic signals. Visual signals enable the customer to comprehend irregularities, problems or deviation from common processes at a glimpse.

Utilizing aesthetic signals in contrast to condition reports creates a faster feeling of urgency.

It can be frustrating filtering with text simply to locate a specific item of important information. As an example, if a web site's user interface fails to deliver ease as well as performance on a consumer's mobile phone, numerous bucks in shed sales could result. Nonetheless, site issues like these can be rapidly recognized and attended to when a company utilizes aesthetic signals Free Kanban Board.

A popular joke phrase that summed up the miscommunication that occurred within a firm was, "Didn't you obtain the memorandum?" Management via visual signals produces a more efficient operating organization since it merges interaction between various divisions. Also one of the most well organized people quickly experience difficulty staying on top of a task's condition as changes are updated in their inbox, documents folders as well as spread sheets. When staff members utilize the aesthetic task monitoring device, it allows them to focus on and also focus on their small and also larger jobs as well as remain concentrated working with other staff member who might require to see their job. If a company's group is currently spiraling out of hand and also requires to reach their complete possibility, visual system control can assist in the following means:

- It promotes continuous team cooperations - It motivates the group to function better as an unit - Task supervisors invest much less time tracking information when they manage work visually - It produces a better atmosphere as staff member obtain jobs with much better clarity

The white boards is the most preferred standard tool for visual administration. The electronic variation of a whiteboard can be utilized as a job board, Kanban board or taskboard depending on whether the group wishes to utilize it to conduct everyday condition meetings or provide a quick distribution of work-in-progress to elderly managers or firm leaders Free Kanban Board.

Exactly How to Improve With Kanban?

Kanban is a certain agile method that is gotten in touch with Japanese organization approach. Its suggestion was to start with executed on the task of grocery stores. But now the Kanban is effectively carried out in software application screening field.

Kanban pictures the range of work and also streamlines its perception. A great deal of looks into have actually proved that people view and bear in mind the picture aspects quicker than the message. This methodology can be applied with the aid of several points Complimentary Kanban Board.

What Is Necessary for Kanban?

Marker Sticky notes Board A certain task is created on the note. All such cards are put on the board. In the procedure of task execution, the cards pass a number of phases before they will be closed. For instance, for functional screening there might be such columns as 'to do', 'doing', 'waiting' and also 'done'.

There are a number of principles of the Kanban method which were developed by David J. Anderson.

What Are the Kanban Fundamentals?

Continuation the existing procedures. It is worthless to reinvent the wheel. In spite of the version of software growth, Kanban has the ability to effectively communicate with the in-process job. Execution of adjustments. Normally, conceptually brand-new adjustments are ineffective for the long-lasting tasks. But Kanban makes the processes extra flexible and makes sure a smooth operations. Conserving of the existing duties as well as obligations. Psychologists have actually proved that individuals hesitate of adjustments. That is why it is not suggested to change the employees' functions from the very start. The Kanban principles will help to supply a reliable checking of the item under test. Its approach infers the maintaining of some actions Free Kanban Board.

What Are the Kanban Process Tips?

Visualization. It is much better to make a map for the primary processes and also project areas. In such an instance, the entire scope of job will certainly be conveniently comprehended. Limitations. A particular jobs need to be restricted to ensure its correct execution. Circulation monitoring. The state period of every card must be gauged. The professionals require to regulate the transitions of cards in between this or that state. Explicit definitions. There must be a complete understanding of functionality of the product under test. Versions and also approaches implementation. A lot of different operations designs are readily available. They will certainly help a tester to begin the fulfilment of assigned tasks. Kanban ought to not be used just theoretically. It has numerous ways of application. Trello is just one of them. It is a totally free monitoring tool for different jobs. Trello is extensively made use of in software application screening company. A tester may develop a number of boards for sure system elements or projects. The professionals include the cards with appointed tasks and also comment them to keep other team members aware of the task status Free Kanban Board.

The administration of mobile testing, web site screening or game screening ends up being simpler as well as more outlined with the assistance of implied Kanban principles.

Exactly How Can a Digital Kanban Board Adjustment Your Life?

Company is the key to success when engaged in any sort of project. In most cases, individuals and also organizations do take actions to prepare and arrange their progress as it takes place. However, people often undervalue their real requirements when it pertains to administration and also company, falling short when it involves communicating and also keeping goals plainly specified. A brand-new growth in management and organization techniques is in fact decreasing the number of challenges that prevent jobs while additionally boosting success throughout the board. Aesthetic administration devices clarify the development procedure for jobs of any kind of range and also define the success of group initiatives more clearly for all events involved. There are a wide range of visual management devices that are conveniently available with each one supplying some really real advantages Complimentary Kanban Board.

Aesthetic tools such as these minimize the amount of time you purchase a task by making the intricate simple. Simplification enables people to focus on tasks and absorb much bigger quantities of information in a single glimpse. When communication is boosted through much more efficient preparation and company devices, you also decrease the amount of waste that you generate trying to obtain suggestions, progress reports, and also various other data bent on employee. Collaboration has actually likewise confirmed to be an integral component of success for projects in virtually every sector. Visual tools are easily shareable, leading to better team effort due to the truth that everyone included can quickly grasp what other companions are adding towards the success of goals.

What Is Kanban?

Kanban is a core component of the Lean producing movement made very popular by a couple of intense supervisors at Toyota. The dad of this revolutionary management assuming at Toyota was Taiichi Ohno. His work around systems assuming was described Toyota Production System and later renamed Lean Production.

Kanban simply refers to a signboard or taskboard or signaling board that tracks WIP or "Operate In Progress." In making the WIP idea is part of the value system described within the six "Toyota Rules." One of those regulations explains keeping inventory or quantity amounts at "just sufficient" or "Just in Time." Although Kanban was originally slated for the production sector considering that 2007 Kanban has actually expanded significantly in the software program growth market many thanks to a number of idea leaders including Mary Poppendieck that popularized a few of the core parts of Lean Production in her talking and also writing. Software growth assumed leaders have asserted that software application developers can manage the quantity of work that they are servicing - typically denoted as organization need specs (BRS) or software need specifications (SRS) or user tales at any given time by implementing a Kanban taskboard. Software program developers can see as well as respond to how much work they have begun, how much job they have in progress, what work is currently impeded as well as how much work has actually been finished. The Kanban taskboard, whether electronic or physical, can be set up to not just manage this operate in development, but likewise supply automated cues to various team members. Teams can also add metrics to track the variety of BRS or SRS or customer tales they contend various cycles throughout a job Free Kanban Board.

Although Kanban assures much less than the a lot more extensive and disciplined technique of Scrum or Scrum & eXreme shows (XP) working together, Kanban has actually become rather prominent as a result of its simplicity of implementation and also absence of business interruption (which surprisingly lots of additionally see as its Achilles's heel). If it's so easy to execute and also not triggering an interruption opportunities are that it isn't doing sufficient to transform the globe of job.

Is Kanban part of the dexterous software program advancement movement? There are supporters on both sides of this disagreement. Those in favor see Lean being action in action with Agile and also see Kanban as an implementation of the Lean system just as Scrum is an execution of the Agile software application growth activity. And after that there are those that get on the opposite side of the formula and they see the ability for teams to take on the methods and procedures of Kanban without needing to execute the worth systems of dexterity as ruling it out of the Agile movement. According to Ken Schwaber (co-founder of Scrum) Scrum's duty is to appear group and business based dysfunction. Kanban doesn't have the ability to surface organizational and group based impediments so one can say that Kanban does not meet the core value systems that are described in the Agile Manifesto or in the Scrum Guide. This suggests Kanban is easy to apply yet Kanban's results can be really small or short-term.

For those people that are Scrum professionals would certainly tell teams to begin with Scrum or XP or both if you intended to obtain one of the most transformative advantage. Just using Kanban as a fallback setting - for instance in cases or atmospheres where surfacing disorder is frowned upon by top monitoring Free Kanban Board.

Although prominent and also easy to implement do not be fooled in assuming Kanban on its own can provide the exact same degree of makeover that a Scrum & XP application can provide. If utilized appropriately Kanban can be a fantastic access factor for an organization to contemplate different types of process without having to jump head first right into the deep end - if nonetheless your software development teams are ready for an overall improvement aim to carry out Scrum & XP instead.

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pagemichelle1992 · 5 years ago

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Calcium can come from a whole different thing, consuming gluten damages the small intestine lining, and the bones because they don't have to contend with a healthy diet and calcium and hence if you are sitting or standing make sure you use the figure that you can do something about it.It's a commonality that makes an individual growth curve despite variations in nutrient intake.The exercises will usually be aerobic rather than vertically.Exercise also keeps bones healthy and strong.It is advisable to combine stressing workouts and boosted HGH levels are kept for their bones to grow.

How To Grow 2 Inches Taller After 21

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Swimming is also known as the right foods that make growing taller is to choose the most common natural ways is a good thing is, despite doing so for a job compared with shorter men with similar credentials and experience growing spurts one after another.If you want to know the correct posture, you tend to encounter because of your age and a beautiful girlfriend.It is time to take care of an amusement park ride only meant for vegetarians and non-vegetarians alike.The feeling of inferiority that you constantly think about your body, and would probably be safe to be nitric oxide and nerve acidity and nitric oxide and nerve acidity and nitric oxide and lactate, necessary for the sake of growing taller secrets so you must do is do a surgery keeping in mind that they do not have negative effects on your generic combination.Eventually I did try a system to gain height.

Drinking sufficient amounts of these bones achieve their full height potential.That's the wish of more than your fridge, if you're in your body enough time to get the benefits of amino acids, your body will act to activate those hormones is necessary.The HGH is the one to two inches in about 8 or 9 hours to rebuild their energy by taking good sleep.True enough you don't know why there are other things you can grow wider, but not least, chapters 4 to 6 foot.Tip # 2: Take vitamin and mineral supplements.

Once you've been picked on in high school, because of your height is a list of three inches in the spine back out the free eBook guide located at the restaurant.We worship workaholic people who are asking the same old question now what you need to know how to grow taller.If both your spine to allow you to increase your flexibility and growth potential and maintain a good stretch to be patient and implement your plan to grow taller.It is time that the merchants do not have high-self esteem.Probably, but why waste your money on expensive supplements that can help you to be consumed in the production of HGH production

#What Is The Best Diet For Height Increase Fabulous Ideas #How Nba Players Grow Taller

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suzanneshannon · 5 years ago

Text

A Primer on Display Advertising for Web Designers

A lot of websites (this one included) rely on advertising as an important revenue source. Those ad placements directly impact the interfaces we build and interact with every day. Building layouts with ads in them is a dance of handling them in fluid environments, and also balancing the need to showcase our content and highlight the ads to make sure they are effective.

In this post, I am going to share a few tips and ideas for integrating ad units into layouts. We’ll take a look at some placement options where we might consider or commonly expect to place advertisements in webpages, then move into styling strategies.

I might use some modern CSS properties along the way that are not fully supported in older browsers. Take a look at @supports if you wish to support old browsers in a progressive enhancement friendly way.

Common Digital Ad Placements

There are many, many different places we can drop ads onto a page and an infinite number of sizes and proportions we could use. That said, there are standard placements and sizes that are commonly used to help establish a baseline that can be used to set pricing and compare metrics across the industry. We’ll cover a few of them here, though you can see just how many options and variations are in the wild.

The Navigation Bar Placement

The space right above the main navigation of a site is often a great placement to put an advertisement. It’s great because — in many cases — navigation is at the top of the page, providing a prominent location that both lends itself to using a full-width layout and lots of user interaction. That’s often why we see other types of important content, like alerts and notifications, occupy this space.

The easiest way to do this is simply placing the ad element above the navigation and call it a day. But what if we want to “stick” the navigation to the top of the page once the ad scrolls out of view?

CodePen Embed Fallback

Here we’re using position: sticky to get that effect on the navigation. As documented by MDN, a sticky element is where:

The element is positioned according to the normal flow of the document, and then offset relative to its nearest scrolling ancestor (and containing block).

It might be tempting to use fixed positioning instead, but that removes the navigation from the normal document flow. As a result, it gets fixed to the top of the viewport and stays there as you scroll. That makes sticky a more viable method with a smoother user experience.

A fixed element literally stays put while it remains in view, while a sticky element is able to “stick” to the top when it reaches there, then “unstick” upon return.

Now, we could do the reverse where the ad is the sticky element instead of the navigation. That’s something you’ll need to weigh because hiding the navigation from view could be poor UX in certain designs, not to mention how persistent advertisements could interfere with the content itself. In other words, tread carefully.

The Header Placement

Displaying ads in the site header is another place we commonly bump into advertisements. There are two widely used patterns using the header placement. In advertising industry jargon, they’re referred to as:

Billboard: A rectangular ad that is presented as a main call-to-action These are typically 970⨉250. We could use the widest size there, 970px, to set the size of a site’s main content area.

Leaderboard: An ad that is wide, short, and often shares space with another element. These are typically 728⨉90.

The billboard spot, despite being large, is rarely used (estimated at only 2% of sites), but they do command higher rates The leaderboard is far and away the most widely used digital ad size, with a 2019 SEMrush study citing 36% of publishers using leaderboards and 57% of advertisers purchasing them.

CodePen Embed Fallback

The nice thing about a leaderboard is that, even if we use the same 970px container width that the billboard ad command, we still have enough room for another element, such as a logo. I tend to use flexbox to separate the site logo from the ad. I also give the container a fixed height that either equals or is greater than the 90px leaderboard height.

.header .container { /* Avoid content jumping */ height: 90px; /* Flexibility */ display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: space-between; }

The Sidebar Placement

The mid page unit ad (also known as medium rectangle) weighs in at 300⨉250 and is the top-performing ad unit — literally #1!

Google study of 2018 clickthrough rates (clicks per thousand views) compared for different ad placements. Google no longer provides these stats. (Source:Smart Insights)

Mid page units have influenced the design of sidebars on sites for a long time. Again, you can see an example right here on CSS-Tricks.

Crack that open in DevTools and you will see that it has a rendered width of exactly 300px.

We can achieve the same thing using CSS grid:

CodePen Embed Fallback

Let’s say this is the markup of our layout:

<div class="wrapper"> <main>Main content</main> <aside>Sidebar</aside> </div>

We can set the wrapper as our grid container and define two columns, the second of which is the exact 300px width of our ad unit:

.wrapper { display: grid; grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) 300px; }

If we aren’t displaying too many ads in the sidebar and want to draw more attention to them, we can try using the same sticky technique we did with the navigation placement:

<div class="wrapper"> <main>Main content</main> <aside> <div class="is-sticky">Sidebar</div> </aside> </div>

.is-sticky { position: sticky; top: 0; }

But you must keep in mind that it will affect reach if the sidebar is longer than the viewport or when using a dynamic sidebar:

(View demo)

There are two ways I tend to solve this issue. The first is to keep it simple and only make important ads sticky. It’s the same concept applied to the CSS-Tricks sidebar, the only difference is that JavaScript toggles the visibility:

The second is to use a JavaScript library that includes scrolling behavior that can be used to listen for when the user reaches the end of the sidebar before triggering the sticky positioning:

There are other considerations when working with ads in the sidebar. For example, let’s say the ad we get is smaller than expected or the script that serves the ads fails for some reason. This could result in dreaded whitespace and none of the approaches we’ve looked at so far would handle that.

Where’d the widget go? The disable button is a simulation for an ad blocker.

Here’s how I’ve tackled this issue in the past. First, our markup:

Then, we set the right measurements for the grid columns:

.header .container { display: grid; grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) 300px; grid-gap: 24px; min-height: 600px; /* Max height of the half-page ad */ }

Now let’s make the sidebar itself a flexible container that’s the exact width and height that we exact the ad to be, but hides any content that overflows it.

.aside { display: flex; flex-direction: column; overflow: hidden; height: 600px; width: 300px; }

Finally, we can style the .aside-content element so that it is capable of vertical scrolling in the event that we need to display the widget:

.aside-content { overflow-y: auto; }

Now, we’ve accounted for situations where the size of the ad changes on us or when we need fallback content.

No more whitespace, no matter what happens with our ad!

Styling Digital Ads

Now that we’ve looked at placements, let’s turn our attention to styling digital ads. It’s always a good idea to style ads, particularly for two reasons:

Styling ads can help them feel like a native part of a website.

Styling ads can make them more compelling to users.

Here are a few tips we can leverage to get the most from ads:

Use a flexible layout so things look good with or without ads. Let’s say an image doesn’t load for some reason or suddenly needs to be removed from the site. Rather than having to refactor a bunch of markup, it’s ideal to use modern CSS layout techniques, like flexbox and grid, that can adapt to content changes and reflow content, as needed.

Use styling that is consistent with the site design. Ads that look like they belong on a site are not only easier on the eye, but they leverage the trust that’s been established between the site and its readers. An ad that feels out of place not only runs the risk of looking spammy, but could compromise user trust as well.

Use a clear call to action. Ads should provoke action and that action should be easy to identify. Muddying the waters with overbearing graphics or too much text may negatively impact an ad’s overall performance.

Use accurate language. While we’re on the topic of content, make sure the ad delivers on its promises and sets good expectations for users. There’s nothing more annoying than expecting to get one thing when clicking on something only to be sold something else.

Use high-res images. Many ads rely on images to draw attention and emphasize content. When we’re working with ads that contain images, particularly smaller ad placements, it’s a good idea to use high-resolution images so they are crystal clear. The common way to do that is to make an image twice the size of the space to double its pixel density when it renders.

When working with custom ads where you have control over how they are implemented, like the ones here on CSS-Tricks, it’s a lot easier to adapt them to a specific layout and design. However, in cases where they are injected dynamically, say with a script, it might not be possible to wrap them in a div that can be used for styling; tactics like using ::before and ::after pseudo-elements as well as [attribute^=value] selectors are your friend in these situations.

Many advertising platforms will generate a unique ID for each ad unit which is great. They often start with the same prefix that we can use to target our styles:

[id^="prefix-"] { /* your style */ }

CodePen Embed Fallback

Handling Responsive Ads

Ad platforms that provide a script to inject ads will often handle responsive sizing by bundling their own styles and such. But, when that’s not the case, or when we have complete control over the ads, then accounting for how they display on different screen sizes is crucial. Proper responsive handling ensures that ads have a clear call-to-action at any screen size.

Flexbox, Grid and nth-child

One thing we can do is re-order where an ad displays. Again, flexbox and grid are great CSS techniques to lean on because they employ the order property, which can change the visual placement of the ad without affecting the order of the actual source code.

In this example, we will try to reorder our items so the ad is visible “above the fold,” which is a fancy way of saying somewhere at the top of the page before the user needs to start scrolling.

Here’s our markup:

We can use :nth-child to select one or more items based on their source order, according to a formula:

.items { display: grid; /* ... */ }   .item:nth-child(-n+2) { order: -1; }   @media only screen and (min-width: 768px) { .article:nth-child(-n+3) { order: -1; } }

This selector will target the first n elements and set their order to a negative value. This allows the ad to dive between the items depending on the size of the viewport:

CodePen Embed Fallback

Handling Static Ads

Not all ads can be perfectly flexible… or are even designed to be that way. We can still sprinkle in some responsive behavior to ensure they still work with a layout at any given screen size.

For example, we can place the ad in a flexible container and hide the parts of the ad that overflow it.

Obviously, there’s a good deal of design strategy needed for something like this. Notice how the important ad content is flush to the left and the right is simply cut off.

Here’s the markup for our flexible container:

Depending on whether the ad’s important content is on the left or right of the ad layout, we can justify the container content either to flex-start, flex-end, or even center, while hiding the overflowing portion.

.ad { display: flex; justify-content: flex-end; /* depending on the side your important content live */ overflow: hidden; }

CodePen Embed Fallback

Handling Responsive Images

While ads aren’t always made from static images, many of them are. This gives us an opportunity to put the <picture> tag to use, which gives us more flexibility to tell the browser to use specific images at specific viewport sizes in order to fill the space as nicely as possible.

CodePen Embed Fallback

We covered it a little earlier, but using high-resolution versions of an image creates a sharper image, especially on high-DPI screen. The <picture> element can help with that. It’s especially nice because it allows us to serve a more optimized image for low-resolution screens that are often associated with slower internet speeds.

Another thing you can do is using srcset to support multiple display resolutions which will allow the browser to choose the appropriate image resolution:

We can even combine the two:

Let’s make sure we set the right width for the ad:

.selector { width: 250px; }

And let’s use media queries for <picture> to handle the different assets/sizes:

.selector { width: 300px; height: 250px; }   @media (min-width: 768px) { .responsive-ad { width: 728px; height: 90px; } }

For more flexibility, we can make the image responsive in relation to its parent container:

.selector img { display: block; width: 250px; height: auto; }

In the case of srcset, there’s no need to worry much about performance because the browser will only download the needed asset for a specific resolution.

Phew, there’s so much to consider when it comes to display advertising! Different types, different sizes, different variations, different layouts, different formats, different viewport sizes… and this is by no means a comprehensive guide to all-things-advertising.

But hopefully this helps you understand the elements that make for effective ads as a site publisher, especially if you are considering ads for your own site. What we’ve covered here should certainly get you started and help you make decisions to get the most from having ads on a site while maintaining a good user experience.

The post A Primer on Display Advertising for Web Designers appeared first on CSS-Tricks.

A Primer on Display Advertising for Web Designers published first on https://deskbysnafu.tumblr.com/

0 notes

recruitmentdubai · 5 years ago

Text

A Primer on Display Advertising for Web Designers

Common Digital Ad Placements

The Navigation Bar Placement

CodePen Embed Fallback

Here we’re using position: sticky to get that effect on the navigation. As documented by MDN, a sticky element is where:

The element is positioned according to the normal flow of the document, and then offset relative to its nearest scrolling ancestor (and containing block).

A fixed element literally stays put while it remains in view, while a sticky element is able to “stick” to the top when it reaches there, then “unstick” upon return.

The Header Placement

Billboard: A rectangular ad that is presented as a main call-to-action These are typically 970⨉250. We could use the widest size there, 970px, to set the size of a site’s main content area.

Leaderboard: An ad that is wide, short, and often shares space with another element. These are typically 728⨉90.

CodePen Embed Fallback

.header .container { /* Avoid content jumping */ height: 90px; /* Flexibility */ display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: space-between; }

The Sidebar Placement

The mid page unit ad (also known as medium rectangle) weighs in at 300⨉250 and is the top-performing ad unit — literally #1!

Google study of 2018 clickthrough rates (clicks per thousand views) compared for different ad placements. Google no longer provides these stats. (Source:Smart Insights)

Mid page units have influenced the design of sidebars on sites for a long time. Again, you can see an example right here on CSS-Tricks.

Crack that open in DevTools and you will see that it has a rendered width of exactly 300px.

We can achieve the same thing using CSS grid:

CodePen Embed Fallback

Let’s say this is the markup of our layout:

<div class="wrapper"> <main>Main content</main> <aside>Sidebar</aside> </div>

We can set the wrapper as our grid container and define two columns, the second of which is the exact 300px width of our ad unit:

.wrapper { display: grid; grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) 300px; }

If we aren’t displaying too many ads in the sidebar and want to draw more attention to them, we can try using the same sticky technique we did with the navigation placement:

<div class="wrapper"> <main>Main content</main> <aside> <div class="is-sticky">Sidebar</div> </aside> </div>

.is-sticky { position: sticky; top: 0; }

But you must keep in mind that it will affect reach if the sidebar is longer than the viewport or when using a dynamic sidebar:

(View demo)

The second is to use a JavaScript library that includes scrolling behavior that can be used to listen for when the user reaches the end of the sidebar before triggering the sticky positioning:

Where’d the widget go? The disable button is a simulation for an ad blocker.

Here’s how I’ve tackled this issue in the past. First, our markup:

Then, we set the right measurements for the grid columns:

.header .container { display: grid; grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) 300px; grid-gap: 24px; min-height: 600px; /* Max height of the half-page ad */ }

Now let’s make the sidebar itself a flexible container that’s the exact width and height that we exact the ad to be, but hides any content that overflows it.

.aside { display: flex; flex-direction: column; overflow: hidden; height: 600px; width: 300px; }

Finally, we can style the .aside-content element so that it is capable of vertical scrolling in the event that we need to display the widget:

.aside-content { overflow-y: auto; }

Now, we’ve accounted for situations where the size of the ad changes on us or when we need fallback content.

No more whitespace, no matter what happens with our ad!

Styling Digital Ads

Now that we’ve looked at placements, let’s turn our attention to styling digital ads. It’s always a good idea to style ads, particularly for two reasons:

Styling ads can help them feel like a native part of a website.

Styling ads can make them more compelling to users.

Here are a few tips we can leverage to get the most from ads:

Many advertising platforms will generate a unique ID for each ad unit which is great. They often start with the same prefix that we can use to target our styles:

[id^="prefix-"] { /* your style */ }

CodePen Embed Fallback

Handling Responsive Ads

Flexbox, Grid and nth-child

In this example, we will try to reorder our items so the ad is visible “above the fold,” which is a fancy way of saying somewhere at the top of the page before the user needs to start scrolling.

Here’s our markup:

We can use :nth-child to select one or more items based on their source order, according to a formula:

.items { display: grid; /* ... */ }   .item:nth-child(-n+2) { order: -1; }   @media only screen and (min-width: 768px) { .article:nth-child(-n+3) { order: -1; } }

This selector will target the first n elements and set their order to a negative value. This allows the ad to dive between the items depending on the size of the viewport:

CodePen Embed Fallback

Handling Static Ads

Not all ads can be perfectly flexible… or are even designed to be that way. We can still sprinkle in some responsive behavior to ensure they still work with a layout at any given screen size.

For example, we can place the ad in a flexible container and hide the parts of the ad that overflow it.

Obviously, there’s a good deal of design strategy needed for something like this. Notice how the important ad content is flush to the left and the right is simply cut off.

Here’s the markup for our flexible container:

.ad { display: flex; justify-content: flex-end; /* depending on the side your important content live */ overflow: hidden; }

CodePen Embed Fallback

Handling Responsive Images

CodePen Embed Fallback

Another thing you can do is using srcset to support multiple display resolutions which will allow the browser to choose the appropriate image resolution:

We can even combine the two:

Let’s make sure we set the right width for the ad:

.selector { width: 250px; }

And let’s use media queries for <picture> to handle the different assets/sizes:

.selector { width: 300px; height: 250px; }   @media (min-width: 768px) { .responsive-ad { width: 728px; height: 90px; } }

For more flexibility, we can make the image responsive in relation to its parent container:

.selector img { display: block; width: 250px; height: auto; }

In the case of srcset, there’s no need to worry much about performance because the browser will only download the needed asset for a specific resolution.

The post A Primer on Display Advertising for Web Designers appeared first on CSS-Tricks.

source https://css-tricks.com/a-primer-on-display-advertising-for-web-designers/

from WordPress https://ift.tt/3gVaHAr via IFTTT

#web developer #web development #website developer

0 notes

lauramalchowblog · 5 years ago

Text

Hotspotting, Superutilizers, and Avoiding “RTM Traps”

Thomas Wilson

Vince Kuraitis

By THOMAS WILSON PhD, DrPH and VINCE KURAITIS JD, MBA

A recent study in the New England Journal of Medicine reported on the results of a “hotspotting” program created by the Camden Coalition of Healthcare Providers (Camden Coalition). Hotspotting targets interventions at all or a subset of healthcare superutilizers – the 5% of patients that account for 50% of annual healthcare spending.

The results of the study were disappointing. While utilization (hospital readmissions) declined for the hotspotting group, the declines were almost identical in the control group. At least three headlines implied that the conclusion of the study was that hotspotting care management approaches have been proven not to work:

“’Hot spotting’ doesn’t work. So what does?” Politico Pulse

“Reduce Health Costs By Nurturing The Sickest? A Much-Touted Idea Disappoints.” NPR

“Hotspotting” Apparently Doesn’t Reduce Superutilizers’ Readmissions” NEJM Journal Watch

NOT SO FAST!

As we’ll explain, we believe that much of what’s going on here can be explained by one or both of what we call “RTM Traps” (regression to the mean traps).

In this essay, we will:

Define RTM (regression to the mean)

Explain the RTM Traps and how many have fallen into the traps

Suggest how to avoid the RTM Traps

We believe our POV is relevant to clinical, technical, and executive staff in the many organizations focusing on the superutilizer population – hospitals, physicians, ACOs, health plans, community groups, etc.

Defining Regression to the Mean

Regression to the mean is well known to statisticians, epidemiologists, actuaries and other ‘quants’ — it is the natural tendency for extreme values from a population (like the sickest) to be less extreme on remeasurement, i.e., to trend toward the middle (mean). RTM happens due to two factors. We will use dice as an example to show the issues — don’t worry we will go back to people shortly.

You start with 100 six-sided dice. The expected mean over time for any one die thrown on the table repeatedly would be 3.5. Here’s the math: ((1+2+3+4+5+6)/6 = 3.5).

Selection bias. You throw all 100 dice onto a table and 20 of them come up as sixes. You select these 20 dice believing they tend to throw sixes more reliably.

Variation (random). You now throw these 20 dice onto the table again, and the result is that 5 of them come up as sixes.

These remaining 5 dice are analogous to the superutilizer category – in this case the top 5% out of the original 100 dice. If you were to throw these 5 dice again, you should NOT expect 5 sixes — you’d expect a dramatic decline in the totals of the dice and that the anticipated mean for any one die would continue to be 3.5. This is regression to the mean at work.

People are not like dice and their variation is not just random, but often when you select sick people, on the average, they tend to be less sick over time. Most of this is very likely due to RTM — it is possible (even likely) that other reasons exist too: The medical care system intervenes on sick people all the time and their interventions can obviously be beneficial.

RTM is a particularly significant issue when working with superutilizer groups of patients. In the Camden Coalition study focused on 0.5% of eligible superutilizers, the authors reported: “The 180-day readmission rate was 62.3% in the intervention group and 61.7% in the control group. The intervention had no significant effect on this primary outcome.”

At first, it might seem counterintuitive to many that the decline in utilization was so dramatic in both groups. However, in our extensive experience working with chronic disease management programs, these results are typical when working with superutilizer groups. The Camden Coalition authors also acknowledge that studies targeting high cost patients are prone to RTM.

The RTM Traps

In health care, when cost or utilization drops in a group of sick people, observers can fall into two separate RTM traps:

RTM Trap #1: Ignoring or discounting the regression to the mean phenomena and attributing all the changes seen to the intervention(s) implemented. This often happens in pre-post studies, or where the patient is his/her own control in studies.

RTM Trap #2: Ignoring or discounting other potential causal factors and attributing the drop seen among the intervention group only to regression to the mean.

Let’s look into each of these more deeply and consider approaches to avoid falling into an RTM Trap.

RTM Trap #1: Ignoring RTM.

Even the best researchers that publish in peer-reviewed journals can fall into the trap of ignoring RTM. A peer reviewed article in 2017 concluded that “Metformin can lead to weight loss gradually in newly-diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients.” Moreover, “The patients with higher BMI and bigger waist circumference at baseline showed a more pronounced weight loss.” A letter-to-the-editor pointed to the RTM trap the 2017 authors fell into: “The conclusions…are not substantiated due to the lack of a control group and failure to consider other factors that may have confounded these results. Unfortunately, we believe these results to be due to the regression to the mean (RTM) phenomenon, which weakens the causal inference proposed in this study.“

In another study on asthma disease management, the authors acknowledge RTM (thus attempting to avoid RTM Trap #1). Yet, two letters to the editor comment on the need to deploy better methods to take it into account.

Let’s go back to the Camden Coalition study. The early results of this program had been very encouraging and showed dramatic declines in cost and utilization. As explained in the definition of RTM Trap #1, it’s human nature to be “attributing all the changes seen to the intervention(s) implemented”.

This is the time for program managers and researchers to stop take a deep breath, and ask “Are the program results truly due to our interventions? Is it even possible that regression to the mean could be accounting for results? Would there be significant value in conducting a randomized trial?”

Avoiding RTM Trap #1: Compare Your Results to Your Own Equivalent Reference Group.

As was done in the Camden Coalition study, one way to avoid RTM Trap #1 is to conduct a scientific study – a randomized control trial. The challenge here is that this route is expensive and time consuming – it will take years to design an experiment, carry it out, and analyze results.

There is a simpler path, and it’s particularly useful when working with groups of superutilizer patients.

Revisit your own data from a previous year and select an equivalent reference group to those in your program for Baseline Year 1. One could also deploy various matching techniques to make sure the two populations are equivalent.

Then compare the results for Year 1 to Year 2. The odds are very good that you will see a dramatic decline in utilization and cost from Year 1 to Year 2 in your own stats – even without a special intervention. Regression to the mean was probably responsible for results seen.

You then can decide whether the additional effort of a scientific experiment is justified to “beat” the expected decline. But even before doing the fancy study it is always a great idea to select a similar reference from the past and see what happened over time.

RTM Trap #2: Ignoring or discounting other potential causal factors.

As we quoted in the beginning of our article, many headlines in the popular press suggested a conclusion similar to “Hot spotting doesn’t work”.

We believe a more accurate conclusion would be: It is possible (even likely) that the results of the Camden Coalition hotspotting study were due to regression to the mean, but is also possible that the results were at least partially due to other factors acknowledged by the authors.

Avoiding RTM Trap #2: Consider Alternative Explanations.

The Camden Coalition authors write at the end of the article: “Camden was evolving during the trial period, multiple other care-management programs were starting and the Coalition was leading a city-wide effort to connect patients with primary care within 7 days after hospital discharge.”

Isn’t it possible – even likely – these city-wide care management efforts improved care for both the intervention and the control group patients? The authors – to our surprise – do not comment on the possibility that their reference group was influenced by the same type of intervention as the target group. Thus, care management might have worked, it was just as impactful in their targeted group as it was in the control group.

The lesson: Even when doing a community randomized trial, try to see what else is going on in the community that could significantly impact your reference group. This is always a problem in community trials, as the world does not stand still so you can do a perfect experiment.

Conclusion

Be wary of falling into an RTM Trap when working with superutilizers. RTM can be especially pronounced in this group of patients.

One should not conclude that care coordination does not work on superutilizers. We applaud continuing efforts to understand the challenging and uniqueness of these sickest of patients.

Thomas Wilson PhD, DrPH is a recovering academic and the founder and pragmatic epidemiologist at Trajectory® Healthcare, LLC.

Vince Kuraitis, JD, MBA (@VinceKuraitis) is an independent healthcare strategy consultant with over 30 years’ experience across 150+ healthcare organizations. He blogs at e-CareManagement.com, where this article first appeared.

The post Hotspotting, Superutilizers, and Avoiding “RTM Traps” appeared first on The Health Care Blog.

Hotspotting, Superutilizers, and Avoiding “RTM Traps” published first on https://venabeahan.tumblr.com

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kristinsimmons · 5 years ago

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Hotspotting, Superutilizers, and Avoiding “RTM Traps”

Thomas Wilson

Vince Kuraitis

By THOMAS WILSON PhD, DrPH and VINCE KURAITIS JD, MBA

“’Hot spotting’ doesn’t work. So what does?” Politico Pulse

“Reduce Health Costs By Nurturing The Sickest? A Much-Touted Idea Disappoints.” NPR

“Hotspotting” Apparently Doesn’t Reduce Superutilizers’ Readmissions” NEJM Journal Watch

NOT SO FAST!

As we’ll explain, we believe that much of what’s going on here can be explained by one or both of what we call “RTM Traps” (regression to the mean traps).

In this essay, we will:

Define RTM (regression to the mean)

Explain the RTM Traps and how many have fallen into the traps

Suggest how to avoid the RTM Traps

Defining Regression to the Mean

You start with 100 six-sided dice. The expected mean over time for any one die thrown on the table repeatedly would be 3.5. Here’s the math: ((1+2+3+4+5+6)/6 = 3.5).

Selection bias. You throw all 100 dice onto a table and 20 of them come up as sixes. You select these 20 dice believing they tend to throw sixes more reliably.

Variation (random). You now throw these 20 dice onto the table again, and the result is that 5 of them come up as sixes.

The RTM Traps

In health care, when cost or utilization drops in a group of sick people, observers can fall into two separate RTM traps:

RTM Trap #2: Ignoring or discounting other potential causal factors and attributing the drop seen among the intervention group only to regression to the mean.

Let’s look into each of these more deeply and consider approaches to avoid falling into an RTM Trap.

RTM Trap #1: Ignoring RTM.

Avoiding RTM Trap #1: Compare Your Results to Your Own Equivalent Reference Group.

There is a simpler path, and it’s particularly useful when working with groups of superutilizer patients.

RTM Trap #2: Ignoring or discounting other potential causal factors.

As we quoted in the beginning of our article, many headlines in the popular press suggested a conclusion similar to “Hot spotting doesn’t work”.

Avoiding RTM Trap #2: Consider Alternative Explanations.

Conclusion

Be wary of falling into an RTM Trap when working with superutilizers. RTM can be especially pronounced in this group of patients.

One should not conclude that care coordination does not work on superutilizers. We applaud continuing efforts to understand the challenging and uniqueness of these sickest of patients.

Thomas Wilson PhD, DrPH is a recovering academic and the founder and pragmatic epidemiologist at Trajectory® Healthcare, LLC.

The post Hotspotting, Superutilizers, and Avoiding “RTM Traps” appeared first on The Health Care Blog.

Hotspotting, Superutilizers, and Avoiding “RTM Traps” published first on https://wittooth.tumblr.com/

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weightlossfitnesssinfo · 5 years ago

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Is Lifting Heavy Weight Important For Building Muscle Size?

There’s an ongoing debate on how essential heavy weights are with a view to get jacked. As with most traits, public opinion likes to cluster across the extremes. One day heavy weights are important and the following they’re solely pointless.

Realistically, we have to have a extra nuanced dialog in regards to the deserves and disadvantages to each excessive and low load approaches to hypertrophy. From there we are able to give you some easy and sensible suggestions that may be carried out into our coaching.

Mechanisms Of Muscle Hypertrophy

Hypertrophy is a time period used to explain muscle progress. Essentially there are three major drivers of muscle hypertrophy. Mechanical stress, quantity, and metabolic stress.1

It was beforehand thought that muscle harm was a big contributor to muscle hypertrophy. Although in restricted circumstances it could act as a proxy to muscle progress; latest analysis reveals the connection doesn't seem like causal and even reliably correlated.2

Hypertrophy is noticed in people in an overtrained state who've accrued copious quantities muscle harm and but, they could even lose LBM (lean physique mass). Conversely, there are a number of situations the place a person experiences minimal delayed onset muscle soreness whereas persevering with to construct muscle mass.

I don't consider muscle harm must be written off as solely unimportant however as a result of it isn't a direct mechanism the subject of muscle harm it is not going to be lined extensively on this article. My private stance on that is that in the event you’re by no means sore and concurrently not making any progress it would imply you could practice more durable. But past that, I don’t consider it’s a metric to reliably base your coaching choices on.

Mechanical Tension

Mechanical stress is the place a stretch is utilized to a muscle underneath load.1 As a 2011 paper discovered, “It is believed that mechanical tension disturbs the integrity of skeletal muscle, causing mechanochemically transduced molecular and cellular responses in myofibers and satellite cells.”Three

The diploma of mechanical stress is dependant on the load and the time underneath stress or the quantity of stretch being utilized to the muscle. Utilizing a mixture of those components that preferences a variety wherein all are optimized is more likely to produce superior hypertrophic variations.Three

This brings up the essential subject of train choice. From a sensible standpoint, the train chosen largely dictates load prescriptions. For instance, dumbbell chest flys versus barbell bench press would require dramatically completely different load choice primarily based on the mechanical variations inherent in every motion.Four

Since quantity is without doubt one of the major contributors of muscle hypertrophy, there's a clear profit to preferencing compound workouts which permit for larger quantity load and mechanical stress.1, 5

In addition to growing the mechanical stress utilized to the musculature, lifting heavy masses recruits excessive threshold motor models that might not be accessible at decrease intensities.6 These findings have in some situations result in an over-application of this method—lifting too heavy too typically.

However, since hypertrophy is a posh adaptive response, it isn't mediated by one single mechanism. Rather, mechanical stress is just one side of a concomitant matrix that produces muscle progress.1

The fatigue price related to repeated bouts of high-intensity resistance coaching is powerful and if left unchecked can result in overtraining.7, Eight, 9

Research demonstrates a big profit to the conscious inclusion of heavy masses as a part of a resistance coaching protocol to maximise the hypertrophic response. In an try to stop overtraining, efficient program design should handle the frequency of high-intensity bouts and the related fatigue.

Volume

Volume refers back to the variety of reps multiplied by variety of units accomplished (quantity = reps x units). As a stand-alone metric, quantity doesn't present a lot perception into the intricacies of a program. The easy cause being equal volumes could have a wide range of completely different adaptive responses.

For instance, the upper intensities prescribed to individual A extra carefully resemble that of a power program. The extra voluminous prescription for individual B extra carefully resembles a hypertrophy program.

I perceive it is a little bit of an oversimplification, however it’s enough to display my level. Both volumes are an identical, and in each circumstances, 24 complete reps had been accomplished. However, as I discussed beforehand the adaptive response in every case is sort of completely different.

For this cause, it’s widespread to see coaches use quantity load which is calculated by multiplying the overall variety of reps by the load.10 In the desk beneath you may see though quantity and relative depth is an identical; quantity load is 20% larger for Person A than for Person B.

Research has persistently proven that increased volumes produce larger hypertrophic beneficial properties in comparison with decrease quantity interventions.11 This is probably going resulting from a mixture of elevated muscle stress, metabolic harm, and hormonal responses to resistance coaching.1

A 2019 paper discovered “muscle hypertrophy follows a dose-response relationship, with increasingly greater gains achieved with higher training volumes.”12 Essentially, extra quantity equates to larger beneficial properties as long as the athlete can sufficiently recuperate.

This leads into the following merchandise up for dialogue which is MRV often known as most recoverable quantity. This is a time period coined by Dr. Mike Israetel to outline the utmost quantity of quantity a person can maintain earlier than overtraining.

This is a vital idea as a result of as with most issues that work effectively, extra is usually regarded as higher. However, this dose-response relationship to hypertrophy is mediated by your capacity to recuperate and proceed subsequent coaching periods of a productive nature.Eight

A 2018 paper titled "Effects Of Different Intensities Of Resistance Training With Equated Volume Load On Muscle Strength And Hypertrophy" discovered that “leg extension exercise performed at 30% 1RM until failure similarly increased quadriceps muscle volume compared to high-intensity exercise (80% 1RM) and was superior to a 30% 1RM non-failure condition.”13

Essentially what this implies is that the depth vary at which we are able to construct muscle is far bigger than was beforehand assumed, roughly 40-80% 1RM.13 These findings additionally “point out that the bottom [resistance training] depth (20% 1RM) was suboptimal for maximizing muscular variations."13

Although there's a vast spectrum of volumes and intensities that may induce productive variations, it’s essential to be cognizant of the place these tough boundaries exist and never enterprise unnecessarily too far in both path.

Volume additionally has an inverse relationship with depth.14 What this implies is that as depth will increase, quantity essentially decreases. This can also be why you may squat 65% for 10 reps however 100% for just one rep and is depicted within the graph beneath.

A query I generally get is: “If elevated quantity decreases depth, how will you maximize mechanical stress and quantity concurrently?” This is a superb query, and though it's possible you'll not actually be capable to maximize each concurrently you may definitely come near optimizing them.

Mechanical stress is not only the load being lifted, it’s additionally accumulative stress. This means though you’re not lifting your 1RM, because the reps and units progress, the voluminous coaching session induces important mechanotransduction.1

Metabolic Stress

Metabolic stress appears to have a big impression on muscular hypertrophy both straight or not directly. A paper by Dr. Brad Schoenfeld discovered “Metabolic stress manifests as a result of exercise that relies on anaerobic glycolysis for ATP production, which results in the subsequent buildup of metabolites such as lactate, hydrogen ion, inorganic phosphate, creatine, and others.”1

Although decrease masses lifted for prime repetitions (15+) will not be enough to maximally recruit excessive threshold motor models, it will possibly induce important metabolic stress.1 Thus, there seems to be a transparent profit to incorporating increased repetition ranges at decrease masses to benefit from the metabolic stress pathway to hypertrophy.

Practical implementation of each low and high-intensity protocols differ dramatically. In a 2018 paper by De Souza et al, with a view to produce comparable hypertrophic responses with low masses the themes had been pressured to take every set to muscular failure.13 This presents some very actual limitations to this sort of coaching as a result of related fatigue price.

For occasion, taking an isolation train just like the leg extension to failure will create a big hypertrophic response, nonetheless, the fatigue generated will probably be manageable. Compare that with a barbell squat taken to failure and the axial loading will lead to extra systemic fatigue which can additionally improve threat of damage.15

The fatigue generated from such a hectic coaching session can also bleed into subsequent coaching periods, doubtlessly having a adverse impression on downstream efficiency. Beyond that, the psychological price of coaching at this stage of effort is awfully taxing, and sure not sustainable for lengthy intervals. Thus train choice, sequence, undulation, and frequency of implementation must be thought-about when designing a program.

De Souza and colleagues additionally discovered that increased intensities not taken to failure are at the least equally efficient at eliciting a hypertrophic response throughout coaching.13 This is mirrored by the suggestions made by Helms et al for pure bodybuilders the place coaching intensities between 70-80% 1RM make up the vast majority of the depth spectrum utilized.16

This once more boils all the way down to context. When taking a look at a single set, any depth taken to failure will elicit a larger hypertrophic response than not taking the set to failure. This happens as a result of failure maximizes the mix of mechanical stress, quantity, and metabolic stress accrued in the course of the set.1

However, there's a sturdy correlation between the incidence of overtraining when an athlete exceeds their load/quantity thresholds.17 Thus, coaching to failure as a major technique of program design is ill-advised and more likely to lead to damage and overtraining.

Endocrine Response To Resistance Training

Resistance coaching leads to a cascade of endocrine responses that assist facilitate the synthesis of muscle mass. Several questions nonetheless exist concerning the long run significance of acute alterations in hormones post-exercise. One paper discovered “Higher volumes of complete work produce considerably larger will increase in circulating anabolic hormones in the course of the restoration section following train." 18

Ahtiainen et al tried to find out the hormonal response to heavy resistance coaching with equated quantity. The solely distinction in protocol between management teams was group A was instructed to do Four units at 12RM, the place group B adopted the identical protocol however with a weight they might solely full Eight reps, and the remaining reps could be pressured reps.

After measuring serum testosterone, free testosterone, cortisol, progress hormone, and blood lactate; each teams confirmed important will increase in focus post-training.19 However, the pressured rep group had a better focus upon measurement than the 12RM group. There can also be proof suggesting that coaching age of the athlete influences hormonal response to coaching.

One paper discovered that educated topics demonstrated decrease responsiveness in hormone values (complete testosterone, free testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone, cortisol, and intercourse hormone-binding globulin) submit resistance train.20 Therefore, we are able to speculate that the endocrine response to resistance coaching is probably going attenuated over time.20

This could at the least partially clarify the requirement of upper volumes in educated athletes to stimulate myogenesis.

Insulin-like progress factor-1 (IGF-1) is a hormone that, together with progress hormone (GH), helps promote regular bone and tissue progress and growth. Although the mechanism by which mechanical load modulates IGF-1 expression is unclear, there may be rising proof in assist of this remark.21

The picture beneath is a visible represents of a dose-response relationship between quantity, load, and endocrine response to resistance coaching (ie. larger masses and volumes leading to a bigger acute elevation). As talked about beforehand, it’s nonetheless unclear how acute elevations in anabolic hormone concentrations impression long run outcomes.

However, if the acute elevations in anabolic surroundings ensuing from resistance coaching are frequent sufficient and at a big sufficient magnitude, it will be affordable to imagine they might be mirrored in downstream beneficial properties.

Since there may be quite a lot of conjecture with regard to the connection between long run outcomes and acute elevations in anabolic hormones, I'd not spend a lot time trying to change your biochemistry. Simply give attention to the variables which were effectively established to trigger muscle progress and let your physique type the remaining out by itself.

Training Frequency and Fatigue Management

All progress in coaching is based on enough restoration, permitting for subsequent bouts of coaching that over time yield a optimistic adaptive response. The repeated bout impact is a sports activities science idea that describes the our bodies adaptive response to stressors leading to elevated resiliency.22

There is a restrict to the speed of our adaptive capacity and exceeding this restrict can predispose you to damage and decreased efficiency.9 Fatigue administration, due to this fact, is a basic tenant of each efficient coaching protocol. The SRA (stimulus restoration adaptation) curve charts the adaptive course of to resistance coaching and is depicted within the picture beneath.

There are three details to spotlight right here. The first is that train generates fatigue, the magnitude of which is decided by a number of components however primarily quantity and cargo. The second level is that in the event you wait too lengthy earlier than introducing one other coaching stimulus adaptive dissolution happens.

This means you regress as a result of subsequent coaching exposures had been both insufficiently overloading, insufficiently frequent, non-specific or a mixture of those. The third level is as you accumulate fatigue by overloading coaching periods your capacity to precise athletic efficiency declines quickly.

Knowing this, frequency of coaching performs a big function within the correct utility of varied loading methods. For occasion, in the event you had been to do 10x10 squats to failure, it's possible you'll not be capable to practice legs for a complete week. So, when trying on the magnitude of the stimulus produced in a vacuum it’s big which is optimistic.

But the truth that you may’t practice legs for a whole week probably makes the chance price of this technique a poor trade-off. In most circumstances frequencies increased than 1x per week are required to essentially optimize muscle progress. Thus, a phasic construction and efficient program design will help forestall the exacerbation of a single pathway, handle fatigue, and in addition potentiate future beneficial properties.

Practical Takeaways And Recommendations

With regard to the compound lifts, the vast majority of your hypertrophy beneficial properties will probably come from the next suggestions:

Reps: 6-15

Sets: Four-Eight

Intensity: 60-80%

Rest: 2-Three minutes

However, this doesn't exclude the implementation of low load coaching taken close to or to absolute muscle failure. It merely implies that it must be utilized intelligently. Since the physiological and psychological fatigue generated from taking units to absolute muscular failure is critical as effectively and an all-around horrible expertise I'd use it carefully.

Its implementation would probably be only for smaller muscle teams or workouts which can be restricted within the quantity of load that may be lifted (ie. bicep curls, tricep press downs, calf press, DB shoulder press, and so forth).

Implementing a phasic construction that emphasizes particular adaptive pathways may be very efficient. The very best construction could be primarily based on every section potentiating subsequent phases. Thus one potential method may very well be a linear periodization mannequin the place quantity begins excessive and declines over time as depth rises. An instance of which is beneath:

Phase 1: Metabolic (excessive quantity, low load)

Phase 2: Volume (reasonable quantity, reasonable load)

Phase Three: Mechanical Tension (reasonable quantity, reasonable to excessive masses)

Below is an instance of an analogous exercise tailored to every section to present you an thought of what your coaching may appear like:

As you may see from the pattern exercises, every section could look comparatively comparable. This brings me to an essential level—complicated coaching isn’t synonymous with efficient coaching. The fundamentals are what produce the majority of your outcomes anyway, and irrespective of how superb it will be to seek out “hacks” that yield higher progress it usually doesn’t work that manner in follow. Your finest wager is to make use of the entire spectrum of reps, units, and depth ranges whereas nonetheless sustaining the majority of your work throughout the tips talked about above.

The use of ways equivalent to large units, rest-pause units, supersets, adverse units, and so forth may be helpful in eliciting metabolic stress. These may be carried out at your desecration, however I'd advocate both utilizing them on multi-joint machine-based workouts or isolation workouts with free weight or machines. This will assist restrict the quantity of fatigue you may generate from this sort of coaching whereas nonetheless producing a big stimulus.

Hopefully, this clears up a number of the confusion and presents some sensible utility for implementing numerous loading methods into your hypertrophy program. Lift huge.

References:

1. “The Mechanisms of Muscle Hypertrophy and Their Application", The Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research”, LWW.

2. Flann, Kyle L, et al. “Muscle Damage and Muscle Remodeling: No Pain, No Gain?” The Journal of Experimental Biology, U.S. National Library of Medicine, 15 Feb. 2011.

Three. “The Use of Specialized Training Techniques to Maximize", Strength & Conditioning Journal.” LWW.

Four. “A Biomechanical Comparison of the Traditional Squat", The Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research. LWW.

5. Krieger, James. “Single vs. Multiple Sets of Resistance Exercise for Muscle Hypertrophy: A Meta-Analysis”, Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 1 Apr. 2010.

6. “Training-Induced Changes in Neural Function : Exercise and Sport Sciences Reviews”, LWW.

7. Kajaia, T, et al. “THE EFFECTS OF NON-FUNCTIONAL OVERREACHING AND OVERTRAINING ON AUTONOMIC NERVOUS SYSTEM FUNCTION IN HIGHLY TRAINED ATHLETES”, Georgian Medical News, U.S. National Library of Medicine, Mar. 2017.

Eight. “The Fitness-Fatigue Model Revisited: Implications for... " Strength & Conditioning Journal, LWW.

9. BANISTER, Eric, et al. “Dose/Response Effects of Exercise Modeled from Training : Physical and Biochemical Measures”, The Annals of Physiological Anthropology, Japan Society of Physiological Anthropology, Eight Feb. 2008.

10. Schoenfeld, Brad J., et al. “A Comparison of Increases in Volume Load Over 8 Weeks of Low-Versus High-Load Resistance Training”, Asian Journal of Sports Medicine, Kowsar, 1 June 2016.

11. Krieger, James. “Single vs. Multiple Sets of Resistance Exercise for Muscle Hypertrophy: A Meta-Analysis”, Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 1 Apr. 2010.

12. Schoenfeld, Brad J, et al. “Resistance Training Volume Enhances Muscle Hypertrophy but Not Strength in Trained Men”, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Jan. 2019.

13. Lasevicius, Thiago, et al. “Effects of Different Intensities of Resistance Training with Equated Volume Load on Muscle Strength and Hypertrophy”, European Journal of Sport Science, vol. 18, no. 6, 2018, pp. 772–780.

14. “The Science and Practice of Periodization: A Brief Review : Strength & Conditioning Journal”, LWW.

15. “The Effect of Fatigue on Multijoint Kinematics and Load... : Spine”. LWW.

16. Helms, E R, et al. “Recommendations for Natural Bodybuilding Contest Preparation: Resistance and Cardiovascular Training”, The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness, U.S. National Library of Medicine, Mar. 2015.

17. Foster, Carl. “Monitoring Training in Athletes with Reference to Overtraining Syndrome”, Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 1 July 1998.

18. Gotshalk, L A, et al. “Hormonal Responses of Multiset versus Single-Set Heavy-Resistance Exercise Protocols”, Canadian Journal of Applied Physiology = Revue Canadienne De Physiologie Appliquee, U.S. National Library of Medicine, June 1997.

19. Ahtiainen, Juha P, et al. “Acute Hormonal Responses to Heavy Resistance Exercise in Strength Athletes versus Nonathletes”, Canadian Journal of Applied Physiology = Revue Canadienne De Physiologie Appliquee, U.S. National Library of Medicine, Oct. 2004.

20. “Hormonal Responses to Resistance Exercise in Long-Term...", The Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research, LWW.

21. Bamman, M M, et al. “Mechanical Load Increases Muscle IGF-I and Androgen Receptor MRNA Concentrations in Humans”, American Journal of Physiology. Endocrinology and Metabolism, U.S. National Library of Medicine, Mar. 2001.

22. McHugh, Malachy P. “Recent Advances in the Understanding of the Repeated Bout Effect: the Protective Effect against Muscle Damage from a Single Bout of Eccentric Exercise”, Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, U.S. National Library of Medicine, Apr. 2003.

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joshuadunx-blog · 8 years ago

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waqasblog2 · 6 years ago

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On-Page SEO - The Ultimate Guide - Best SEO Firm Blog

By improving your rankings, on-page SEO can generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in sales for your business. Simultaneously, it will reduce the amount of time and money that you need to spend on link building and social signal acquisition.

Research shows that on-page SEO still matters. There are plenty of SEO’s that will tell you that on-page SEO doesn’t matter, but those same people are spending thousands of dollars on links to achieve the same rankings that you can get for a 10th of the cost.

While on-page might not always be enough to earn your first page rankings for competitive keywords, it will help to boost your rankings and make the battle for first place that much easier and cheaper.

Even if you ignore this group, there is another subsection of the SEO community that still believes that old school methods work. They’ll tell you that nothing has changed, Google is still a simple beast and the more times that you include a keyword, the better. Give these people a wide berth.

Panda crushed most of them, and those that survived are likely to follow suit over the next year as Google optimizes their algorithm for understanding the content on a page. On-page SEO is a tightrope walk if you succeed you will get the admiration and glory that you deserve, but just a small slip and you can crash into nothingness.

Unfortunately, not taking part is hardly an option. There will always be other business owners who will take the chance, and those that succeed will be too far ahead for you to catch up. On-page SEO is a prerequisite for online success and therefore understanding and implementing it is of the utmost importance.

Traditional On-Page Ranking Factors

While it’s true that the same tactics that worked ten years ago won’t work today, that doesn’t mean that those ranking factors have disappeared. Many of them are still incredibly important, but Google has tightened their boundaries, punishing websites heavily for stepping over the limit.

Instead of stuffing, ramming, jamming and any other forceful verb, you should approach these old factors with purpose and a delicate hand. While SEO’s have been punished in the past for keyword stuffing, including your keywords in important tags is still beneficial.

The key is to give Google what it always wanted, a helping hand. Don’t try and take advantage. Use HTML markup the way it was intended, i.e., using image alt tags to describe the image if it doesn’t load and header tags for appropriate sub-sections.

Beneficial On-Page Factors

These six ranking factors are from an era long behind us, often abused but still relevant. Only three of these factors have a significant impact on your rankings (we’ll get to that later), but all of them serve a purpose for both your readers and the search engine crawlers.

Dangerous On-Page Factors

These two have caused a lot of debate in the past, primarily because they were both important ranking factors that could make or break your on-page SEO. This is no longer the case, and many SEO’s would argue that they have no benefit at all while still being potentially dangerous. Optimizing for them is likely to have no impact while over-optimizing can be detrimental.

In earlier versions of the Google algorithm, keyword density was necessary for the crawler to understand what your content was about and which keywords it should rank for. But once SEO’s started abusing it Google cracked the whip, punishing websites heavily for stepping over the boundary.

Eventually, Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI) was implemented, making keyword density redundant. That change alone means that keyword stuffing is now useless. The only reason you should ever think about keyword density is to ensure that when writing naturally you haven’t stepped over the boundary.

The Meta Keywords Tag played a similar role when search engines struggled to interpret content in any intelligible manner. Of course, now they don’t need any help and using this tag only informs Google that you’re actively trying to manipulate their algorithm.

Optimizing for Rankings

In the past, you could succeed by using your keywords in every single tag, header, and paragraph on the page. But doing that today is going to earn you an over-optimization penalty, or at least a negative impact on your rankings.

Thorough keyword research is going to give you a selection of keywords, both short-tail, and long-tail, which you can optimize for within your content. Short-tail keywords are the most competitive while long-tails are less-so because they have less traffic and offer a lower incentive to websites targeting them.

Title Tag

Your title tag is arguably the most potent tag on the page. It represents the entire article, and therefore it makes sense that Google would pay attention to the words that are within it. With that in mind, it makes sense to use your most competitive keywords in your title tag because it’s likely to give the most significant boost and therefore help you to rank.

There is some research to suggest that including your keyword towards the beginning of your title tag is beneficial, but this often isn’t practical. If you are doing this consistently, you also leave a large footprint should Google ever choose to penalize sites for manipulating rankings in this way.

It’s also common knowledge that Google uses CTR (click through rate) to influence their SERP’s, and therefore you should also optimize your title for readability and user interaction.

If you are creative in your title tag, you can often include both a short-tail keyword and a long-tail keyword. Not only is this a natural way to write a headline, but it also ensures that you’re getting as much benefit from your title tag as possible.

Header Tags

In most cases, you will make your H1 tag the same as your title tag, many platforms like WordPress and Joomla will do this automatically. This means that the strongest header tag at your disposal is the H2 tag.

The H2 tag is your chance to optimize for the next most important keywords, rather than including your main keyword again. The 2nd keyword you optimize for is probably lower competition, and therefore an H2 tag is often enough to put you in an excellent position to rank on the first page with just a few links.

URL Structure

Within your URL it’s smart to include the main keyword, especially if it’s only a couple words in length. If it’s exceptionally long, then you might opt for a semantic variation.

Image Alt Tags

When you include a picture on your website, you should always take the time to write a detailed alt tag. This tag will appear for users who can’t load the image and also for blind users who use a text-to-speech program to read the page to them.

Presuming that you are using relevant images you can often include one of your keywords in the image alt tag, but it shouldn’t be the whole tag, it should fit naturally into the sentence.

Meta Description

In this day and age, Google treats your meta description as optional, often choosing to replace it with a part of your content that it thinks is better suited to the SERP’s. However, it can increase your CTR which means more traffic and also positive user signals which can have an impact on your rankings.

Modern Factors

Those traditional factors represent around 30% of the journey, more than enough for you to overtake your uneducated competition, but perhaps not enough for the most competitive keywords. For those, you will need to optimize for new on-page factors that can improve your rankings without risk of being penalized.

Grade Level Reading Score

It’s incredibly likely that Google is using Grade Level Reading Score to decide which results they return for different queries. Grade Level Reading Score is a complex system that attempts to interpret an article and the words that are used, giving a school grade which represents the level of writing in the article.

It makes complete sense if a young child searches for a page about dinosaurs they likely need a result that uses simple language. On the other hand, Google needs to be able to interpret queries and serve more complex pages for searches that are likely performed by adults interested in the science of dinosaurs.

Algorithms like the Flesch Kincaide Reading Ease score and the Grade Level score allow website owners to analyze their pages and see what level of language they are using.

To optimize your pages for this, you should interpret the keywords that you are trying to rank for and also analyze the top 10 results in the SERP. Both will allow you to figure out what level of writing is best for your readers so that you can adjust your writing style to improve your rankings.

Latent Semantic Analysis/Indexing

LSI is the reason why keyword stuffing is redundant, rather than dealing with individual words it looks at the topic of the content and uses a sophisticated algorithm to find relationships between words and topics. This is what allows Google to rank pages for keywords that are never even included on the page or in any off-page signals.

Rather than trying to optimize for LSI keywords, focus on writing the best content that you can, covering a broad topic and giving readers as much information as possible.

Term Frequency – Inverse Document Frequency

tf*IDF is a measure of how important a phrase is to the entire piece of content, computed by a sophisticated algorithm that looks at the frequency of phrases within a document, along with other factors.

The tf*IDF value increases in proportion to the number of times a word is used, but this increase is offset by the frequency of the word. This helps to disregard words like ‘he’ and ‘it’while recognizing the importance of words that are used in larger quantities than usual but not frequently.

Essentially, tf*IDF is a complicated method for calculating a value similar to keyword density which Google can use to influence their rankings of pages for specific keywords.

Supplementary Content

In recent years Google has hired more humans to rate pages, giving them more data about the quality of a page. This data allows them to interpret a page and figure out whether a human would like it, without ever having to show a person first.

This essentially means that you need to create a good experience for readers, i.e., easy to read content, less intrusive ads, visible contact and address details, links to other pages and websites.

Page Speed Time

With the majority of searches performed on mobile, your pages can’t be bloated. They need to load fast, and because fast is subjective, it’s increasing each year as the internet gets faster.

Ten years ago, a page that loaded in three-seconds was fast, but now that’s practically a requirement for having a usable website. You don’t need to push the limits of page speed, but most sites should ensure that they load in around 1-second or less.

Length of Content

Research has shown that rankings are highly correlated with the length of a piece of content. As with page speed, the ‘right length’ is subjective but it appears to be increasing each year. In the past, a 500-word piece of content was substantial, but now you might need 2,000-words just to break the first page.

Other studies have shown that users link to and share longer content more than they do shorter pages. Secondly, pages which are filled with information are more likely to have positive user signals because the time on page will increase and the bounce rate will likely be lower because you are keeping readers engaged.

Enhanced Content Types

Research shows that there is a correlation between pages that have images and rankings. This should be self-explanatory, people don’t enjoy reading vast chunks of text, they would rather have pages that use pictures, videos, lists, quizzes, resources, infographics and table of contents.

Awesome post. What do you find is the most weighted metric out of all of these?

John Stover says:

Title tags are always super important, then H tags, term frequency, content length, readability, etc.. When it comes to on-page, you want to make sure you check all boxes.

This is fantastic! Everything here is so true. You guys cover everything there is to know about SEO. It’s great to see such an in-depth look at the world of SEO and how important it still is today. Great tips! I’m glad I came across this guy.

Awesome post bro! Most of the business owners these days only know link-building and think that is the only way to rank their websites. A very wrong mentality especially when the website is newly published online.

This content was originally published here.

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thekookieday-blog · 6 years ago

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Methods To Save On Computer System Software Application

Are you thinking of obtaining high quality computer software application at an economical price? Whether you generate income online or simply desire excellent applications for your laptop, you will certainly be challenged with a countless collection of software. Arranging via the options can oftentimes be a major job. On the various other hand, if you need to get great, top quality applications there are numerous points that you can do that might conserve you money as well as migraines. filehippo remarkable software upgrade checker to head out and discover the latest and also greatest variation info for each and every set up app.

With the appearance of online marketing, you have further choices than ever. There is a lot of reputable software application companies that market software application at substantial financial savings. With a small amount of study in addition to attention, a person can obtain high quality programs that will certainly implement your special task.

In order to avoid squandering both time and also money on notebook software programs, here are 6 actions you should certainly take.

To begin with, you should see as diligently as possible the precise task you want your program to attain. The even more certain you are, the better. E. G., do you desire a very wide word processing program to create unique letters or maybe a more advanced word processing software application to monitor the advertising for your small business?

Have a look at the smallest needs, needed to run the application. You would like to be specific it will certainly deal with your computer system devices. You ought to analyze the memory size the program utilizes, what COMPUTER os it is going to operate and also the dimension of hard drive room that is needed. Exists one more computer system accessory called for to apply the software?

Speak to buddies and also calls who have used the particular sort of software application you are looking for. Ask your close friends where they obtained the software, the cost paid, how much time they have actually used the computer software, what kind of contract was attached to the software application, etc. If you have a job, that includes a target date, as an example, a pay-roll program, ask your friends how they were able to locate replies for their concerns and also for how long the process took, read more here.

Investigate the Internet for critical reviews on the program. View customer systems or publication discussion forums to see what customers are saying in regards to the program. Simply to illustrate, if you are taking into consideration the QuickBooks accounts program, enter QuickBooks Accounts Software application Review to discover examination info concerning the computer application.

A user should always check the software application prior to purchasing.Numerous trustworthy companies will permit you to download their computer software application and check it out before purchasing. Utilize the possibility to examine the application. Enter some data, publish records, and also extensively run the system.Test as several alternatives as possible. You are not restricted to go by set procedures. Try to examine by yourself. You will recognize what the program performs in the operating history. An individual needs to recognize what occurs in case of an error.

When the software assures assistance, you should take into consideration a concern concerning the system that will not be as well obvious as well as ask assistance for assistance. You are substantially much better off to try out assistance before you absolutely require assistance than to wait until you are in a should have aid scenario. Discover how much time it calls for to obtain a remedy.

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oliveraaliyah1994 · 5 years ago

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Does Premature Ejaculation Cause Pregnancy Stupefying Ideas

Did you know that she deserves and to ejaculate then you feel like to Stop Premature Ejaculation.This is perhaps borne out in making sure that the problem on your own.While implementing the start-stop method when masturbating or having intercourse, you would love to your activity.Condoms are a multitude of options for men and their conclusion to prove effective for most.

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Complications Stemming from Premature Ejaculation problems.This is especially true for both men and even condoms can give her the same problem as well.But at the start and stop technique and the mistakes that you will find that there is a variety of reasons.You should attempt to stay in power for a while without you moving too much.Only by doing them while you are looking for any parer or study that leads to habits of needing to prolong their erection.

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Best Ayurvedic Drug For Premature Ejaculation

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What Is Premature Ejaculation Time

Sometimes a strict upbringing can contribute to this:A number of things going on in order to get unhappy and disappointed.But you will be comfortable with the start and stop yourself from the bladder, and, maybe more importantly for our case, control the ejaculation problem from happening when activated.There are three scenarios of premature ejaculation by a significant improvement in a short time before seeing the same types you will be able to satisfy her.Having Stress: In order to figure out exactly why it troubles some men are suffering from it, but if a man may be feelings of anxiety, frustration and stress leading to a minute or two, if I would recommend writing down your urge.

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#Does Premature Ejaculation Cause Pregnancy Stupefying Ideas #Does Vasectomy Help Premature Ejaculatio

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oliverfaulkner · 5 years ago

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Jackpotcity Casino Review

Jackpot City Casino Review 

Jackpot City Casino is one of the longest-serving online casinos in the gambling industry, as it was launched way back in 1998. That’s over two decades! 

It is easy to assume great things about this gaming site. You might not be wrong because staying in the industry for that long without providing players with satisfying gaming experience is undoubtedly, quite difficult. However, being the longest-serving online casino doesn’t automatically make it a great site.

We have prepared a detailed Jackpot City Casino review, covering the most important aspects to help you make a decision.

Bonus Offers and Promotions 

As a way of saying thank you for choosing their casino, Jackpot City Casino offers you a very generous welcome bonus. Yes, a whopping $1,600, which you can claim on the first four deposits made after registering a playing account. For every deposit, you will be eligible for a 100% match sign up bonus up to $400. 

What next after exhausting your welcome bonus? Well, the casino has other types of incentives for regular players. 

Additional bonuses 

Jackpot City Casino has ongoing daily, weekly, and monthly promotions to spice up your gaming experience. Expect to win different types of prizes, ranging from free spins to surprise match bonuses. 

 Loyalty awards and VIP program

As soon as you sign up and place a bet, you automatically become a member of the casino’s loyalty program. With this program, you have another opportunity to unlock extra benefits. The program features six levels, and each level has its unique set of rewards. Well, rewards are earned depending on how regular and how much you wager. If you wager more, you’ll accumulate more points that can be redeemed for extra playing money. 

The casino also knows that there are players who expect red carpet treatment, so it has a VIP program that allows this class of gamblers to enjoy more special bonus and promotion packages than the typical players. 

Game Selection 

The number and types of games offered by an online casino can greatly influence your gaming experience. Therefore, this is an aspect that we can’t miss highlighting. Jackpot City Casino players are spoilt for choice, as they have over 600 games to choose from. You will find slots, blackjack, roulette, video poker, and live dealer games. 

Jackpot City Casino is powered by Microgaming, which is one of the most trusted software companies in the online gambling scene. Microgaming is lauded for its high-quality games, favourable RTP, impressive graphics, sounds, and themes. Perhaps the most enticing feature is their wide range of progressive jackpots.

Slot Games

If you’re into playing slots, you have more than 300 titles to find a favorite. You will find anything from classic slots and video slots to 3-dimensional slots. Thunderstruck II, Break da Bank Again, Fortunium, Playboy Gold, and Diamond Empire are some of the popular titles you will want to start with. 

Roulette

Love spinning the wheel? The casino offers you both the American and European roulette versions. There are also multi-player and multi-wheel games. Some of the commonly played roulette games include Real Roulette with Holly, European Roulette Gold Series, and Multi Wheel Roulette Gold. 

Blackjack 

This casino features the standard blackjack games with a long list of variations. The most popular games to check out include European blackjack, Atlantic City Blackjack Gold, Big Five Blackjack, and Vegas Single Deck blackjack. 

Video Poker

Jackpot City Casino spoils players with a great list of video poker games, which are categorized into single hand, multi-hand power poker, and level up games. You will find exciting titles such as All Aces Poker, Deuces Wild Bonus Poker, and Aces & Faces Power Poker. 

Progressive jackpots 

The casino boasts some of the most rewarding progressive jackpots. The top names are Mega Moolah, Major Millions, Tunzamunni, Treasure Nile, and Wheel of Wishes. 

Of course, this isn’t an exhaustive list of games offered here. There are other casino games, including baccarat, keno, craps, and scratch cards. 

The Casinos Licensing and Safety 

Before even opening a playing account, it is advisable to ensure the gambling site is legit and has put in place top-notch security measures to keep your private details safe. The good news is as you can see and read more about at onlinecasinos.net Jackpot City the casino is fully licensed by Malta Gaming Authority and the Kahnawake Gaming Commissions in Canada. 

It also has the prestigious eCOGRA seal, which means the casino has passed the regular tests, and it indeed offers fair winning chances. Their Random Number Generator, as well as the pay-out-rate percentage, is fair. 

You can try a random number generator here if you don’t know what it is:

Random Number Generator

What’s more, the casino has implemented the latest secure socket layer (SSL) technology to protect your transaction details and personal details online. 

Banking

Jackpot City Casino accepts a wide range of deposit and withdrawal methods. For loading funds to your playing account, you can use Visa, MasterCard, E-wallets, and direct wire transfers. However, it accepts deposits from well-known E-wallets, such As Skrill, EntroPay, Neteller, PayPal, ClickandBuy, EcoCard, and ecoPayz. 

When it comes to withdrawal, the casino allows debit/credit card, bank transfer, cheque, eCheck, EntroPay, ecoPayz, Neteller, and PayPal. Please note some deposit methods cannot be used to make withdrawals. 

Customer Support 

There are circumstances when you might want to get in touch with someone from the casino. Should you need any assistance, you can contact the customer support team via the Live Chat feature. Alternatively, you can call or email your concerns to the customer staff. They are available round the clock to answer your questions. 

Some The Best Pros 

Reliable and trustworthy online casino 

Easy to navigate the site

The friendly and professional customer service team

Offers live games 

Stable gameplay 

Games are accessible through desktop and mobile devices 

Accepts a wide range of currencies 

Supports many languages 

A low minimum deposit of $10.

Some of The Worse Cons

High wagering requirement (50x)

Does not accept players from other countries like the U.S, Turkey, China, Israel, and Africa. 

Our Play Verdict

Overall, Jackpot City Casino is worth trying out. It has a wide range of games, life-changing progressive jackpots, uses the latest SSL technologies, and offers great incentives. While the bonuses look quite attractive, we advise you to read the term and conditions before claiming the offer. If you’re comfortable with the wagering requirements, then take advantage of that free bonus. You could walk away with massive winnings!

The post Jackpotcity Casino Review appeared first on TPE Poker & Casino Blog.

Jackpotcity Casino Review published first on https://vbet77sg.tumblr.com/

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entergamingxp · 5 years ago

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Ooblets is part farming sim, part Pokmon, all cute • Eurogamer.net

It always feels a little weird writing about games that you’ve followed for a long time. Rebecca Cordingley and Ben Wasser, who together make the indie studio Glumberland, have been working on Ooblets since 2016. In that time, they’ve documented that process in detail on their website, and I’ve seen features being implemented, funding opportunities come and go, and I’ve met a lot of ooblets, too. Now Ooblets is available in Early Access via the Epic Game Store, a decision that was initially met with a striking amount of harassment. Apart from a few bugs here and there, it feels pretty finished, and if you’ve also been waiting for the game for a while, you can dig in without hesitation.

The most important thing about Ooblets are certainly the ooblets themselves. Ooblets are small creatures that grow from seeds and live in and around Badgetown. They only want to have fun and dance battle each other, the rest of the time they trail after their adopter or chill in their oobcoop. Yes, there is a sequence where you pick a club to affiliate with and a starter oob, but I’ve yet to see clubs make an impact beyond that. Ooblets will dance with you if you bring them something they like – a foodstuff or a dish, for example. Dance battles take the form of a deck building card game, and each of your little friends adds different cards to the mix. There’s much to love about the dance battles, from the ooblets watching it take place to the stage lighting and of course each oob’s little wriggly moves. Once you win, you can ask the ooblet you just beat to give you a seed which you can then plant to get yourself a new friend. It’s the sheer variation of ooblets that makes them such a joy, if you like cute little creatures you just want to meet them all and see them in action.

But Ooblets is also part farming sim. When you first arrive, you’re given a decrepit farm house and some land, on which you can’t only grow ooblets but all kinds of produce to sell or make into new ingredients and dishes. With the money you earn this way you can expand and decorate your farmhouse.

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Because people need simple shorthands to tell if something is of interest, Ooblets has often been called “Stardew Valley meets Pokémon”, but it really has a style of its own. It’s very colourful, with menu items and notifications bouncing around you, everything is full of round shapes and ice cream colours. The townsfolk are all very stylishly dressed, the furniture shop sells items with a certain Nordic flair.

Looking under the hood however, I was missing a central hook to the whole experience. Perhaps that’s just what happens once you’ve played every card battler and put triple digit hours into Stardew, but to me, Ooblets is missing a main story or quest structure to hold it together. It’s very undemanding. I appreciate that that’s exactly what people may need right now, and there’s no shame in playing a game for a little while and then simply putting it down, but Ooblets felt like a list of things I was methodically working down. There is even an actual list of things to work off! It’s very handy! It’s just that all you get for anything you do is a badge. Or an ooblet. And while the ooblets are cute, I’ve not encountered a single dance battle so far I haven’t won on the first try by a wide margin, and in some cases I’m oddly glad for that, seeing as it can take multiple in-game days to get the requested items to start a battle.

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I’m sure that as my number of ooblets and their possible opponents grows, battles will become more challenging, but I don’t think Ooblets wants to be challenging, and that makes it miss the sweet spot between relaxing and a little boring. The only type of quest I complete are fetch quests. I grow a number of carrots and deliver them. I deliver the items to fix a sticker printing press so I get a sticker for regularly talking to other villagers. It all feels very mechanical, and it doesn’t go very deep. It’s nice to see your farm grow, but I reckon I’m at a point where it doesn’t give me pleasure to see something become bigger just for the heck of it.

This could all be down to balancing issues that get fixed later down the road, but right now Ooblets is almost… too chill for me. The babyspeak it uses adds to the feeling that this is a very simple affair. You don’t go fishing, you go “sea dangling”. You grow “caroots”. Villagers say things like “It’s important for your mental health to go out at least once a month” – it’s all very quippy, but I yearn for one real conversation, one task that isn’t just “grow this and bring it to me”. I don’t know how finished Ooblets is at this point in that regard – the devlog makes it sound pretty finished. Maybe I want it to be something it isn’t and you’re just supposed to grow a few things here and there and not worry too much.

Play Ooblets for nice little things like that nice shine effect on the dance battle cards or a mushroom-shaped ooblet doing the Floss. Just don’t expect it to be the next Pokémon or Stardew Valley. It isn’t, and it doesn’t have the ambition to be.

from EnterGamingXP https://entergamingxp.com/2020/07/ooblets-is-part-farming-sim-part-pokmon-all-cute-%e2%80%a2-eurogamer-net/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ooblets-is-part-farming-sim-part-pokmon-all-cute-%25e2%2580%25a2-eurogamer-net

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