#1.5 Celsius

[n0thingiscool]

2023 on track to be world's hottest year on record, temperatures exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for first time

Welp, this is the start of mass extinction in the eyes of the environmental experts.

We will either let the fossil fuel industry and all it's bootlickers kill us or we'll have to get to them soon.

This year is now almost certain to become Earth's warmest on record after a hot July and August saw global temperatures reach the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This is the first time the 1.5C threshold has been passed for more than one month, and only the second time it has ever been exceeded, behind February 2016. Data released last week from Copernicus, a branch of the European Union Space Programme, shows August was 1.59C warmer than 1850-1900 levels, following a 1.6C increase in July. The recent records have now lifted the year-to-date global temperature to the end of August to 1.35C above pre-industrial levels, just 0.01C behind 2016 — the current record holder, according to Copernicus data.

[opensky-tom]

Based on the news I read today, I wished the report had had more specifics like what are wrong and what can be done, which is contrary to IPCC Chief's comment mentioned in the article though. If put cynically, is the report made for governments instead of people (do you want us to sprint really?)? 

Anyway, it seems in a nutshell, we need to rely on renewable energy, but my country, Japan is not progressing as well as hoped in this field. In my opinion, if warfare still continue on this earth, I wouldn't see the efforts to prevent severe Climate Crisis would become meaningful. So, Russian invasion into Ukraine, Civil War in Syria and so forth are the touchstone of world communities' ability to tackle with a very important global issue like Global Warming as well because for the world to unite, we need to trust each other. If hate overpowers trust, our efforts to unite and to achieve a global goal would come to nothing.

[lullaby-of-the-leaves]

making up a guy who cares about climate change for the first time because he realizes he has to walk his dog in 35 degree rainy muddy weather instead of 30 degree snowy weather all winter long

[zvaigzdelasas]

China’s massive rollout of renewable energy is accelerating, its investments in the sector growing so large that international climate watchdogs now expect the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions to peak years earlier than anticipated—possibly as soon as this year[!!!].

China installed 217 gigawatts worth of solar power last year alone, a 55% increase, according to new government data. That is more than 500 million solar panels and well above the total installed solar capacity of the U.S. [...]

Wind-energy installation additions were 76 gigawatts last year, more than the rest of the world combined. That amounted to more than 20,000 new turbines across the country, including the world’s largest, [...]

The low-carbon capacity additions, which also included hydropower and nuclear, were for the first time large enough that their power output could cover the entire annual increase in Chinese electricity demand [!!!!], analysts say. The dynamic suggests that coal-fired generation—which accounts for 70% of overall emissions for the world’s biggest polluter—is set to decline in the years to come, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency and Lauri Myllyvirta, the Helsinki-based lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.[...]

Its rapid emissions growth long provided fodder for critics who said Beijing wasn’t committed to fighting climate change or supporting the Paris accord, the landmark climate agreement that calls for governments to attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial temperatures. Now, analysts and officials say Beijing’s efforts are lending momentum to the Paris process, which requires governments to draft new emissions plans every five years.

“An early peak would have a lot of symbolic value and send a signal to the world that we’ve turned a corner," said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, a senior researcher at the Oslo-based Center for International Climate and Environmental Research.

In 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged that the country’s emissions would begin falling before 2030 and hit net zero before 2060, part of its plan prepared under the Paris accord. He also said China would have 1,200 gigawatts of total solar- and wind-power capacity by the end of this decade. The country is six years ahead of schedule: China reached 1,050 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity at the end of 2023, and the China Electricity Council forecast last month that capacity would top 1,300 gigawatts by the end of this year.[...]

Transition Zero, a U.K.-based nonprofit that uses satellite images to monitor industrial activity and emissions in China, says the official data are “broadly aligned and consistent" with theirs.[...]

[M]oving China’s timeline for an overall emissions peak forward could shave off around 0.3 to 0.4 degrees Celsius of projected global warming if emissions started to decline next decade, analysts say.[...]

The most certain variable in the equation is the breakneck pace of China’s renewable-energy rollout, which analysts expect will continue to add 200 to 300 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity a year. The investments in renewable energy have become a major driver of the Chinese economy. The country’s clean-energy spending totaled $890 billion last year, up 40%. [...]

The adoption of electric vehicles is happening so rapidly that analysts say peak gasoline demand in China was already reached last year[!!!].

10 Feb 24

[reasonsforhope]

No-paywall version.

"You can never really see the future, only imagine it, then try to make sense of the new world when it arrives.

Just a few years ago, climate projections for this century looked quite apocalyptic, with most scientists warning that continuing “business as usual” would bring the world four or even five degrees Celsius of warming — a change disruptive enough to call forth not only predictions of food crises and heat stress, state conflict and economic strife, but, from some corners, warnings of civilizational collapse and even a sort of human endgame. (Perhaps you’ve had nightmares about each of these and seen premonitions of them in your newsfeed.)

Now, with the world already 1.2 degrees hotter, scientists believe that warming this century will most likely fall between two or three degrees. (A United Nations report released this week ahead of the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, confirmed that range.) A little lower is possible, with much more concerted action; a little higher, too, with slower action and bad climate luck. Those numbers may sound abstract, but what they suggest is this: Thanks to astonishing declines in the price of renewables, a truly global political mobilization, a clearer picture of the energy future and serious policy focus from world leaders,

we have cut expected warming almost in half in just five years.

...Conventional wisdom has dictated that meeting the most ambitious goals of the Paris agreement by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees could allow for some continuing normal, but failing to take rapid action on emissions, and allowing warming above three or even four degrees, spelled doom.

Neither of those futures looks all that likely now, with the most terrifying predictions made improbable by decarbonization and the most hopeful ones practically foreclosed by tragic delay. The window of possible climate futures is narrowing, and as a result, we are getting a clearer sense of what’s to come: a new world, full of disruption but also billions of people, well past climate normal and yet mercifully short of true climate apocalypse.

Over the last several months, I’ve had dozens of conversations — with climate scientists and economists and policymakers, advocates and activists and novelists and philosophers — about that new world and the ways we might conceptualize it. Perhaps the most capacious and galvanizing account is one I heard from Kate Marvel of NASA, a lead chapter author on the fifth National Climate Assessment: “The world will be what we make it.” Personally, I find myself returning to three sets of guideposts, which help map the landscape of possibility.

First, worst-case temperature scenarios that recently seemed plausible now look much less so, which is inarguably good news and, in a time of climate panic and despair, a truly underappreciated sign of genuine and world-shaping progress...

[I cut number two for being focused on negatives. This is a reasons for hope blog.]

Third, humanity retains an enormous amount of control — over just how hot it will get and how much we will do to protect one another through those assaults and disruptions. Acknowledging that truly apocalyptic warming now looks considerably less likely than it did just a few years ago pulls the future out of the realm of myth and returns it to the plane of history: contested, combative, combining suffering and flourishing — though not in equal measure for every group...

“We live in a terrible world, and we live in a wonderful world,” Marvel says. “It’s a terrible world that’s more than a degree Celsius warmer. But also a wonderful world in which we have so many ways to generate electricity that are cheaper and more cost-effective and easier to deploy than I would’ve ever imagined. People are writing credible papers in scientific journals making the case that switching rapidly to renewable energy isn’t a net cost; it will be a net financial benefit,” she says with a head-shake of near-disbelief. “If you had told me five years ago that that would be the case, I would’ve thought, wow, that’s a miracle.”"

-via The New York Times Magazine, October 26, 2022

[probablyasocialecologist]

Each time you search for something like “how many rocks should I eat” and Google’s AI “snapshot” tells you “at least one small rock per day,” you’re consuming approximately three watt-hours of electricity, according to Alex de Vries, the founder of Digiconomist, a research company exploring the unintended consequences of digital trends. That’s ten times the power consumption of a traditional Google search, and roughly equivalent to the amount of power used when talking for an hour on a home phone. (Remember those?) Collectively, De Vries calculates that adding AI-generated answers to all Google searches could easily consume as much electricity as the country of Ireland.

[...]

This insatiable hunger for power is slowing the transition to green energy. When the owner of two coal-fired power plants in Maryland filed plans to close last year, PJM asked them to keep running till at least 2028 to ensure grid reliability. Meanwhile, AI is also being used to actively increase fossil fuel production. Shell, for example, has aggressively deployed AI to find and produce deep-sea oil. “The truth is that these AI models are contributing in a significant way to climate change, in both direct and indirect ways,” says Tom McBrien, counsel for the Electronic Privacy Information Center, a digital policy watchdog. Even before Google’s AI integration this spring, the average internet user’s digital activity generated 229 kilograms of carbon dioxide a year. That means the world’s current internet use already accounts for about 40 percent of the per capita carbon budget needed to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius.

20 June 2024

[anarchywoofwoof]

yesterday, november 18 2023 was the first day in recorded history where the global 2m surface temperature exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline.

the 1850-1900 period serves as a baseline for the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) primarily because it represents the pre-industrial era, just before the widespread industrialization that began in the late 19th century.

this era is important for understanding the effects of climate change because it provides a relatively stable reference point for the earth's climate system before human activities - particularly the burning of fossil fuels - began to significantly alter the composition of earth's atmosphere. therefore, this period offers some of the earliest reliable meteorological data, allowing scientists to establish a baseline climate against which current and future changes can be compared.

the last time it was close to this hot was +1.99°C above the baseline, on Feb. 28, 2016 during hottest part of El Nino

yesterday, the value was +2.01°C before the hottest part of El Nino.

the 2°C threshold is widely regarded as a critical limit beyond which climate change impacts become increasingly severe and potentially irreversible. this includes increasing extreme weather events, over time a 40~ foot sea-level rise, and massive loss of biodiversity. some of which we are seeing take place before our eyes right now, every single day. all of these headlines are from this year alone:

Ocean scientists concerned over uptick of whale deaths on Northeast coasts

Penguin Chicks Are Dying Off as Antarctic Sea Ice Disappears

More than 10 billion snow crabs starved to death off the coast of Alaska. But why?

Texas oysters in dire straits

Tens of Thousands of Dead Fish Wash Ashore on Gulf Coast in Texas

Drone footage shows millions of dead fish blanket river

Mass death of Amazonian dolphins prompts fears for vulnerable species

‘Crisis period': Dead or dying marine mammals increasingly washing up on SoCal beaches

bear in mind that this is because we're already seeing a near-average of 1.5°c warming this year. this was not expected until the year 2050. like.. it's happening now.

the 1.5°c warming threshold, which is often discussed alongside the 2°c threshold, holds its own significance in the context of climate change and the efforts to mitigate its impacts. this threshold was brought into prominence by the paris agreement, which aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°c, preferably to 1.5°c, compared to pre-industrial levels.

we have effectively blown past this barricade and are barreling toward another. the capitalist train is leaving the tracks and taking us with it.

[mindblowingscience]

The U.N. weather agency on Wednesday predicted that there's an 80% chance that average global temperatures will surpass the 1.5 Celsius-degree (2.7 degree-Fahrenheit) target laid out in the landmark Paris climate accord within the next five years. The World Meteorological Organization said Wednesday that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 is expected to range between 1.1 and 1.9 degrees Celsius hotter than at the start of the industrial era. It also estimated that there's nearly a one-in-two chance—47%—that the average global temperatures over that entire five-year span could top 1.5 C, an increase from just under a one-in-three chance projected for the 2023-2027 span.

Continue Reading.

[smalllady]

Places in Mass Effect 2 - Korlus Korlus' biggest business is the recycling of decommissioned or junked spacecraft into their component parts. While the invention of omni-gel has made this process significantly cleaner, it is still a dirty business that chokes Korlus' sky with smog and fills its ports with megatons of scrap. A shady hospitality industry and a scavenger underclass round out the spectacle of urban decay. TRAVEL ADVISORY: Korlus ranks second in murder per capita in the Terminus Systems and first in offworlder murder. Civilian traffic is encouraged to employ security professionals when visiting. Population: 3.8 billion (est.) Colony Founded: 1781 Capital: Choquo (disputed) Orbital Distance: 1.3 AU Orbital Period: 1.5 Earth Years Radius: 6,850 km Day Length: 28.9 Earth Hours Atmospheric Pressure: 1.5 Earth Atmospheres Surface Temperature: 28 Celsius Surface Gravity: 1.3 G

[talonabraxas]

The Sirius Star Constellation & Astronomy The Astronomy of the Sirius Star System Located behind the Sun when viewed from our planet during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, Sirius rises in the east, before the Sun begins to rise. It was this pre-dawn path that led the astronomers of early civilizations to assume that the star somehow brought about the intense heat and droughts that were common in the middle of summer. In addition to this, Sirius goes by a different name: Alpha Canis Majoris, or the Dog Star. Sirius earned its canine-inspired moniker due to its position on the Canis Major constellation, otherwise known as the Big Dog. It actually traces its name back to its Greek roots — “Seirios,” which means “sparking” or “scorching.” According to modern-day estimates, the Sirius star system is approximately 8.6 light years away from Earth. Despite being so far away, astronomers are still able to gauge just how bright Sirius is, thanks to its stellar magnitude. The stellar magnitude system used by astronomers is simple: the lower the number, the brighter the star is. In the case of the Sirius star system, its visual magnitude clocks in at -1.44, which means that when viewed from our vantage point in the cosmos, it is brighter than any other visible star. Note: this does not mean that Sirius is the brightest star in the entire galaxy. Sirius does not produce the most amount of energy, nor does it radiate the most intense light; however, other stars are farther away from Earth, and thus don’t shine as brightly as Sirius does. One doesn’t even need to use a telescope just to see Sirius. There are only six celestial bodies within the Solar System that outshine Sirius: the Sun, the Moon, Mercury (which isn’t even the case most of the time), Venus, Mars, and Jupiter. Binary Star Sirius A & B Why is Sirius so bright despite its massive distance from our planet? Sirius is a binary star system. In addition to the main sequence star (known as Sirius A), the system also features a smaller companion star (Sirius B). Sirius A is twice the mass is twice that of Sirius B, which in turn is almost the same as our Sun’s. Sirius A Diameter of roughly 2.4 million kilometers (or 1.5 million miles). Sirius A is close to twice as large as our Sun. It is a main-sequence star (spectral type A1V). That means Sirius A’s energy is a direct result of the fusion of hydrogen atoms deep within its core. This gives Sirius A a luminosity that is easily 25 times that of our Sun, as well as a surface temperature of around 10,000 degrees Celsius (or 18,000 degrees Fahrenheit). Sirius B A diameter of approximately 11,800 km (7,300 miles). As a white dwarf star, Sirius B has a density 92 000 times our own sun. One cubic inch of material at that density would weigh over two tons at the surface of the Earth. It has a gravitational force that is about 350,000 times stronger than Earth’s. Meanwhile, Sirius B travels around Sirius A following a highly elliptical orbit. Its luminosity is roughly 3% that of the Sun. However, it’s easily five times as hot as the sun, registering surface temperatures of close to 25,000 degrees Celsius (45,000 degrees Fahrenheit). Relative to Earth, Sirius B is the closest known white dwarf star. That is a star that is so old that it has completely depleted its energy source and lost its outer layer. ~Anatomy of a Star~

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from EcoWatch:

The planet just had its hottest April ever recorded, extending a streak of 11 consecutive record-setting months, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The monthly bulletin from C3S said the average global temperature was 1.61 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average — the highest for a 12-month period. It was also 0.73 degrees Celsius above the average from 1991 to 2020.

“El Niño peaked at the beginning of the year and the sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific are now going back towards neutral conditions. However, whilst temperature variations associated with natural cycles like El Niño come and go, the extra energy trapped into the ocean and the atmosphere by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will keep pushing the global temperature towards new records,” said C3S Director Carlo Buontempo in the report.

For months, ocean surface temperatures broke records as well, leading scientists to ask whether a tipping point due to human activity had been reached, reported Reuters.

“I think many scientists have asked the question whether there could be a shift in the climate system,” said Julien Nicolas, senior climate scientist at C3S, as Reuters reported.

Zeke Hausfather, Berkeley Earth research scientist, has estimated that there is a 66 percent chance this year will be the hottest ever recorded, and a 99 percent likelihood of it being the second hottest, reported CNN. Hausfather added that the best estimate is that the global average temperature for 2024 will be a little higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

[todaysbat]

Our climate is hurtling toward 1.5 degrees Celsius of heating over preindustrial levels. One recent study estimates that if emissions continue apace, we have a 50 percent chance of reaching a global annual average of 1.5 degrees C in just six years. But as we approach this grim milestone, we still have choices. Those of us who live in the “West” or the “Global North” (two geographically dubious terms that essentially mean wealthy, powerful nations) have the greatest responsibility for igniting the blaze that now threatens the entire neighborhood. So will we run toward the fire, determined to help? Or will we set up lawn chairs and watch it burn? Unfortunately, much of the current discourse around 1.5 degrees C reflects the second choice. Instead of action, we’re increasingly obsessed with prognostication: Will we, or won’t we, hold global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C? From there, it's a short leap to a narrative of surrender: if we're going to breach 1.5 C anyway, maybe we should just give up trying. We’re relating to the climate crisis as if it’s something we’re watching instead of something we’re doing—and that mindset has enormous consequences.

[astronicht]

my recipe collection is just. a cavalcade of things in celsius, things in fahrenheit, things in kg, things that say "use this thing from publix" or "use this thing from Spar (Austrian not UK)" or molasses or black treacle or-- it's never right for the moment!! do you know how much math i do in the meat aisle? I nearly got bodied off of the goulash meat today trying to add 0,27 kg and 0,34 kg and get 1.5 lb

[thoughtlessarse]

At least 33 Indian polling staff died on the last day of voting from heatstroke in just one state, says a top election official, after scorching temperatures gripped swaths of the country. Navdeep Rinwa, chief electoral officer for the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where voting in the seventh and final stage of the election ended on Saturday, said 33 polling personnel died due to the heat. The figure included security guards and sanitation staff. “A monetary compensation of 1.5 million rupees [$18,000] will be provided to the families of the deceased,” Rinwa told reporters on Sunday. While there have been reports of multiple deaths from the intense heatwave – with temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in many places – the dozens of staff dying in one day marks an especially grim toll.

continue reading