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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Ramblings: Svechnikov Injured; Kadri and Thornton Suspended; Looking Back – April 16

There were a pair of suspensions handed down on Monday as Nazem Kadri was suspended for the rest of the series for his cross-check in Game 2 and Joe Thornton was suspended for one game for his hit on Tomas Nosek on Sunday night.

With Kadri out of the lineup, William Nylander lined up as the third line centre between Connor Brown and Patrick Marleau.

Carolina took their first game of the series against Washington with a 5-0 win at home in Game 3. The bigger news, however, could end up being the health of rookie star Andrei Svechnikov. The 19-year old challenged Alex Ovechkin to a fight and was promptly knocked out after about three punches. The ‘Canes forward left the game and did not return.

Micheal Ferland also suffered an upper-body injury and did not return.

I imagine Svech will be out for Game 4 at a minimum and it would not surprise me if he missed the rest of the series. That’s just speculation on my part, of course, but it was a devastating knockout.

Dougie Hamilton scored a pair of goals in the win, both coming on the power play. He had six total shots with two blocks, two hits, and two penalty minutes. Why the coaching staff hasn’t moved him to the top PP unit is beyond me.

The Hurricanes utterly dominated the game from start to finish. Sometimes, a score that reads 5-0 can be misleading. This was not one of those cases.

Toronto took a 2-1 series lead over Boston with a 3-2 win on Monday night. Auston Matthews got on the board with a goal and an assist while Andreas Johnsson also had a goal and an assist filling in on the top PP unit for the now-suspended Nazem Kadri.

This was a much tamer affair than the game on the weekend but I’m not very interested in talking about officiating.

Update on the late games in the morning.

Time makes fools of us all. While we do our best to predict what’s going to happen in an NHL season beforehand – that’s the entire premise of fantasy sports – there’s no possible way to get everything right.

I wanted to go back to the preseason to our panel of predictions. (Part 1 here, Part 2 here.) We cover everything from breakouts, to busts, to midseason call-ups, trophy winners, and more. Basically, I want to review where some of the predictions went wrong and what we can learn from this.

Naturally, I’ll start with my own failures.

Dark Horse – Sam Steel

At the outset of the season, I envisioned a transition year for the Ducks. Guys like Ryan Kesler and Corey Perry would still be productive, but likely on the third or fourth lines, while guys like Steel, Troy Terry, and Max Comtois would step up and lead the next wave of the Ducks core.

That wasn’t entirely the case.

Steel’s first foray in the NHL saw three points and 17 shots on goal through 13 games, averaging under 15 minutes a game. We have to think back to the state of the Ducks in October, though: Ryan Getzlaf missed two weeks due to injury, Ondrej Kase was not in the lineup due to his own injury, and Perry was injured as well. With guys like Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, and Andrew Cogliano in the top-6, Steel was playing on the third and fourth line most nights with guys who were either unproven or without a lot of offensive skill. He wasn’t exactly put into a position to succeed, and he, Lundestrom, and Terry were eventually sent down either for the rest of the season, or until after the trade deadline.

In all, the underlying numbers weren’t great for Steel but I wonder how much of that is Anaheim being a disaster most of the season. Those numbers were really bad in October, but after his recall at the end of February, he had very strong shot share numbers for the remaining games he dressed. It really was a tale of two seasons for Steel.

I’ve still a believer in his talent and think he can be a good second-line centre in the NHL. I thought that might start in 2018-19 but clearly he needed another year of to get up to speed. I think my mistake was my own beliefs in a player’s potential clouded what I should have seen as a clear development year. It’s a mistake I’m certain I’ll make again.

Midseason Call-Up – Eeli Tolvanen

This was a popular pick amongst the Dobber team, and for good reason. There has been fanfare around Tolvanen basically since the moment he was drafted by the Predators, and likely before that from certain corners of the fantasy community. I mean, he was called up in the spring of 2018. It would make sense he’d be called up sometime this season, right?

Note: I know he was called up in December, but he only lasted four games. I don’t think this is what our writers had in mind when they predicted a midseason recall.

There are two ways of looking at Tolvanen’s season: a disappointment because he was not able to make any significant contributions in NHL, or a solid development season with 33 points in 57 AHL games. That might not seem like a great total but Milwaukee was in the lower half of the league in total goals, nobody on the team cracked 50 points, and Tolvanen led the roster in shots on goal with 152 despite missing 18 games. When provided a bit more context, that’s a good year for a 19-year old. (He turns 20 next week.)

It did surprise me that Tolvanen did not get a longer look in the NHL given the injuries suffered by Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson at different times in the season. Clearly, Nashville felt more development in the AHL was necessary and with their track record at developing talent over the last five years or so, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.

To me, this screams value in 2019-20. I imagine that Tolvanen is on the roster out of camp but I also imagine some of the shine has worn off by now. There was a lot of Tolvanen buzz a little over 12 months ago about being a game-changing call-up for the Nashville playoff run. I didn’t see nearly the same fervour going into the 2019 playoffs. Does he fly under the radar this summer and into drafts in September? My money is on yes.

Probable Bust – Patrick Kane

I understand the thinking here. Following the 2017-18 season, the Blackhawks certainly seemed like a team on the downturn. There had been the breakout of Alex DeBrincat in 2017-18, but Jonathan Toews had three straight years of under 60 points, Brandon Saad was coming off a miserable season, there were other aging players like Keith, Seabrook, and Anisimov, and the team did not make a splash in free agency. Kane himself was coming off his lowest point total (76) in three years and had seen two years of decline post-Panarin. There was every reason to think the Blackhawks would take a dive this year, and Kane’s production would take a dive with them.

Two things changed for Chicago: DeBrincat was better this year than I think even the most ardent DeBrincat supporter could have expected, and Erik Gustafsson came out of nowhere to post 60 points from the blue line. Chicago’s back end looked very thin with an aging core, and Gustafsson really helped solidify it, at least offensively. An additional two minutes of ice time per game for Kane certainly didn’t hurt.

Now, to be fair to those who thought Kane would be a bust, he did have a lot of underlying numbers that were out of line: his individual shooting percentage both at five-on-five and at all strengths was a three-year high, his on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five was by far a career high, his secondary assist rate was the highest it’s been since 2010-11, and his on-ice shooting percentage on the power play was also a three-year high. It was a rebound, or career year, in many ways for Kane. Not something easily predicted for a 30-year old on what was thought to be a declining team.

An early lesson I learned in fantasy sports is to always bet on talent. Originally, for me, this applied to relief pitchers in fantasy baseball, but it’s very much true in almost any sport; elite talent usually finds a way to be productive almost regardless of circumstance. This certainly isn’t always the case (see: Kopitar, Anze) and I would bet on a modest step back for Kane in 2019-20. All the same, doubting elite talent is a bet I do not often make.

Sleeper – Antti Raanta

I just want to mention this briefly because I also liked Raanta coming into the year (officially, my pick was Kyle Palmieri) and he had a wonderful season up until the injury issues. Like many people, I wrote off Arizona after the injury, and that was a giant mistake.

Darcy Kuemper had a great year being the starter from basically the middle of December onward. He finished the year with a .925 save percentage, and has a .916 save percentage since becoming an NHL regular in 2013-14, the same rate of saves as Henrik Lundqvist and Jaroslav Halak. Now, his goals saved above average rate since 2013 isn’t very good (read: bad), but after the season he had, he’s going to at least be in the conversation for the starter in Arizona next year.

Sidebar: does anyone realize Kuemper is younger than Raanta?

So here’s the question: which goalie is the sleeper next year? How far does Raanta’s injury and uncertainty surrounding his grip on the starting role push down his ADP? Does Kuemper’s great season and potential push for the top job drive up his ADP? Will these two be drafted in relatively the same tier as, say, Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury were a few years ago? I am fascinated to see where these guys are valued by the market, especially if the Coyotes make some moves this offseason either in the trade or free agency markets. Or both.

Those were a few misses from myself and the Dobber team from before the 2018-19 season. I’m sure those of you reading this had a few. What were some predictions on player performance that went awry this year? Let us know in the comments.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-svechnikov-injured-kadri-and-thornton-suspended-looking-back-april-16/

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junker-town · 7 years

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Which struggling NHL team should be more worried: the Rangers or Canadiens?

A look at the issues facing two teams in the Eastern Conference.

In a few days, the Rangers and Canadiens will meet at the Bell Centre for a game where, thankfully, one of them will win. The weekend summit between two NHL teams that have left their fans sweating early this season will surely come with a lot of handwringing over which is more likely to get back on track.

New York and Montreal are two of the biggest fan bases in hockey, and they’ve had a lot to say while their teams stumbled early this season. The Rangers and Habs were supposed to be potential contenders, but they’re currently last in their respective divisions. The pressure is building in those markets to start winning or make changes.

Saturday will be ground zero for that growing tension, and a victory would be a step in the right direction for either team. The good news, for both clubs, is that we’re still early enough in the season that things can change quickly. After all, last year’s Canadiens started 13-1-1, then went 34-25-8 afterwards. The first few weeks aren’t necessarily indicative of a team’s destiny.

But there are very real reasons for concern with the Rangers and Canadiens, who have two of the worst goal differentials in the league this season. With that in mind, let’s look at the pair of struggling Eastern Conference teams, and which one might be more likely to break out of its funk.

Rangers

The record: 2-6-2, -11 goal differential

What’s gone right: Not a whole lot, but it’s worth noting the Rangers are 12th in goals for and 12th in power play rate. Their offense has been respectable, and it might have room for further improvement, too.

For example, Mika Zibanejad has just one assist in 10 games, and he’s spent a lot of time with Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich, who are shooting a combined 3.8 percent this season. That figure should go up, and Zibanejad’s point production with it. Over the past three seasons, Alain Vigneault’s teams shot between 9.6 and 10.4 percent. This season, the Rangers are at 7.7 percent, so there’s a good chance that won’t last.

The defense has had a lot more issues, but Ryan McDonagh has played relatively well as the top blue liner. The Rangers have posted a 54.3 percent 5-on-5 Corsi with him on the ice, and they’ve taken 61.9 percent of high-danger scoring chances, per Natural Stat Trick. He hasn’t gotten much of a chance with Kevin Shattenkirk yet, so it’s hard not to wonder whether that pairing could be the dominant one New York needs, even if it’s at the expense of spreading out talent a bit more.

The Rangers are also third in the NHL in penalty differential at plus-10, according to Corsica Hockey.

What’s gone wrong: Just about everything that wasn’t included above. A few forwards have played well, and McDonagh still looks like a good top-pairing defenseman, but the rest of the team has been a mess. They’re 22nd in penalty killing, 26th in save percentage, and 29th in venue- and score-adjusted 5-on-5 Corsi.

Over at Blueshirt Banter, SB Nation’s Rangers blog, a lot of blame has been directed at the coaching staff, which notably added former Stars coach Lindy Ruff over the summer, for a team that looks less than prepared.

Right now, we're watching five individuals play hockey at a time, and not a team. The Rangers might have some coherence if the coaching staff helped teach them, and the coaching staff might understand coherence if management led by example and showed them what that means. Right now, the New York Rangers need to decide what kind of team they are – one that’s rebuilding or one that’s contending, one that’s a collective unit playing high-speed hockey or just a group of guys who are each skating fast in different directions.

There’s also the matter of Henrik Lundqvist, the $8.5 million goalie, who hasn’t exactly signaled that he’s going to rebound from a down year. The 35-year-old has a .900 save percentage and 3.11 goals allowed average over nine starts. Both of those numbers would surpass the career-worst marks he set last season.

And no goaltender in the league has played more than Lundqvist after the Rangers traded backup Antti Raanta to the Coyotes over the summer. Ondrej Pavelec, with his .899 save percentage since the start of the 2015-16 season, doesn’t seem like much of a solution there. The Rangers will need to be careful not to overwork their aging star goalie this season considering he’s already waking up “with some discomfort.”

Canadiens

The record: 1-6-1, -20 goal differential

What’s gone right: Surely you’ve heard it already. The Canadiens’ success at generating shot attempts and limiting opposing shot attempts stands out for a team that’s struggled so badly. They’re seventh in 5-on-5 Corsi (53.8 percent) and ninth when adjusted for venue and score (51.6 percent), per Natural Stat Trick.

Those are usually indicators of a team that’s going to have success at 5-on-5, yet Montreal is dead last with a goal differential of minus-16. It’s indicative of the fact that offense in hockey is usually a product of both shot volume and shot quality. The Habs may have success in the former, but they’re clearly struggling in the latter. Still, history shows teams that that unusual shoot low percentages in October always see some improvement.

The reality is that Montreal is neither as bad as its raw goal production, nor as good as its shot attempt differential. According to Corsica Hockey, the Canadiens are actually 15th in the NHL with an expected goal percentage, which adjusts for shot location, type, etc., at 49.96 percent. At least in that statistic, the indication is that Montreal is closer to an average team than what we’ve seen so far.

What’s gone wrong: Well ... literally everything other than shot attempt distribution? Montreal is 31st in shooting percentage, 29th in save percentage, 28th on the power play, and 24th on the penalty kill. Jonathan Drouin leads the team with five points. The Blackhawks’ Ryan Hartman had that many in his first game.

Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec, Andrew Shaw, and Max Pacioretty, four of their top scorers last season, have combined for three goals. Whatever adjustments Claude Julien has made so far this season, they haven’t worked yet. On Monday, Galchenyuk, a former 30-goal scorer and top-three draft pick, was skating on the fourth line in practice.

The Canadiens have been better than their paltry offensive production would suggest, but that’s not going to fix the issue of goaltending. Like with New York and Lundqvist, Montreal will be waiting anxiously for the old Carey Price to return. He’s posted a .881 save percentage in seven games, which hasn’t helped anyone.

Which team should be more worried?

It might be too early in the season to definitively make a statement about either team, but the Rangers and Canadiens have given their fans reasons to be worried early on. In both cases, it’s fair to say that these teams have a long way to go before they stand any chance of making a run for the Stanley Cup.

But if we’re talking about which team is more likely to turn around and at least get to the playoffs, the Canadiens may have an easier path. Their star goalie is more likely to rebound given his age and recent performance, and their superior 5-on-5 shot attempt numbers should give them more room to improve. Nobody shoots below four percent all season.

GM Marc Bergevin also has nearly $7 million in cap space to work with, per Cap Friendly, which gives the team flexibility to make a major acquisition before the trade deadline if the price is right. The Rangers have less than $2 million in cap space, so major reinforcements aren’t as likely to arrive.

Both Montreal and New York, not to mention their fans, didn’t expect to be here when the season began. But as we await the primetime meeting between these two teams on Saturday night, it’ll be interesting to see which one can take another step toward getting back on the rails.

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flauntpage · 7 years

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The Golden Knights Weren't the Only Losers in the Expansion Draft

There's no point in avoiding the obvious: following Wednesday's expansion draft, the Vegas Golden Knights are about as bad as an NHL team can be. We knew the Knights would be bad, but no one believed the Knights would be this bad.

So let's just get this out of the way—in this piece about the winners or losers from the expansion draft, the Knights are the biggest losers in Vegas since those four idiots went there for a bachelor party and the one guy passed out on the roof and the other three couldn't remember anything.

The one area where the Knights should have excelled was amassing draft picks. General manager George McPhee had the league's other 30 general managers by the balls, but instead of crushing them until he got what he wanted, he caressed and complimented them. The Knights accumulated only two first-round picks (Nos. 15 and 17); four second-round picks, just one of which is for this year; and a bunch of midrange picks.

Considering the leverage McPhee had going into the expansion draft, he should have gotten much more out of it. There were instances where McPhee took a clearly less valuable player from a roster but got no obvious compensation for leaving the more valuable players alone. If there was a plan, it wasn't apparent last night.

This should seal the Knights' fate for finishing dead last and earning the best lottery odds for the first pick in 2018 (although you never know with the Avalanche still in the league). That was probably always going to be the outcome next season, but it still doesn't make some of McPhee's decisions any less confounding.

Who won? Who lost, besides Vegas? Those are great questions, because I answer them below.

WINNER: Anaheim Ducks

No team was more exposed in the expansion draft than the Ducks, who had both Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson available to be selected. McPhee could've been the mafia, muscling into Ducks GM Bob Murray's territory and eventually owning him because of the stupid way he ran his business. Instead, McPhee acted like a charity, allowing Murray to give him Clayton Stoner and Shea Theodore instead of grabbing either Vatanen or Manson.

Did McPhee and Murray go to boarding school together? Did they marry each other's sisters? What's the excuse for pulling a first-round pick out of the Islanders and the Blue Jackets but settling for Stoner and Theodore from the Ducks? Does Murray know about a murder McPhee did in 1984 and this is the price for keeping quiet? Any of those are more reasonable excuses than "I just liked the Stoner/Theodore package better."

A roster revealed. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

WINNER: Minnesota Wild

It's a similar situation to what happened with Anaheim. Why take Erik Haula and a prospect instead of taking Eric Staal or Matt Dumba? No one is saying the Knights had to keep Staal, but after a resurgent 2016-17 campaign, he has a reasonable contract and a lot of value on the open market. Was McPhee just exhausted by the process and not willing to start new trade talks on a Thursday? Was he looking forward to a long weekend? Is he staying at a hotel spa on the Strip until free agency?

Even if you don't want Dumba, you should be able to extract something more valuable out of the Wild than Haula. It's not as if Haula is some terrible player, but when you consider the size and depth of the barrel the Wild were over, this is a great outcome for them.

LOSER: James Neal

Oh, James. You poor, poor bastard. Two weeks ago, you were a bounce or two from winning the Stanley Cup. Now you're staring down the possibility of multiple seasons on a losing team with Cody Eakin as your center.

WINNER: New York Rangers

Oscar Lindberg is a fine, decent player with plenty of potential. It's possible he realizes that potential, but it's impossible for it to mean a lick to the overall success of the Knights in the coming years. This was another strange choice by McPhee when staring down a team that had far more valuable assets to lose.

Heck, Lindberg wasn't even the best Swedish forward the Rangers had to offer ('sup, Jesper Fast).

Antti Raanta could be a starting goaltender in the NHL right now. Michael Grabner is earning a pittance while coming off a 27-goal season. The Rangers are cap-strapped and in win-now mode, so the threat of losing Grabner's cheap production should have scared them into sweetening a deal to take Lindberg.

Taking Lindberg isn't as bad as taking Theodore, yet this feels like the biggest favor McPhee did for any GM.

LOSER: All the NHL insiders that tracked all these deals Wednesday

Seriously, no one has done more work over such a doomed operation since that guy who looked like Teemu Selanne designed the Death Star in the Star Wars movie. Thank you for entertaining us. No one has made the exchanging of 11th forwards and seventh defensemen this amusing.

LOSER: Florida Panthers

What. Is. This. Team. Doing?

While McPhee let other teams off the hook, he took the Panthers to the cleaners. He grabbed Jonathan Marchessault and then accepted Reilly Smith in a salary dump in exchange for a fourth-round pick in 2018. Smith may not be worth $5 million per season, but he should score 20 goals playing in a top-six role.

The Panthers have been through shakeup after shakeup after shakeup lately. They bumped out Dale Tallon as GM, had a rough start to the 2016-17 season after making a bunch of analytics-driven signings, and then brought Tallon back. McPhee took advantage of the one team that seems to be in more disarray than Vegas.

WINNER: Dallas Stars

The Stars lost Cody Eakin, who is signed through 2020 with a $3.85 million cap hit and had three goals and nine assists in 60 games. Not to beat this point into the ground, but McPhee did not get enough in terms of bribe draft picks to take on other teams' garbage.

WINNER: Marc-André Fleury

After much thought about this, I say good for Fleury. Going to the Knights might feel like exile, but really it's a reprieve from being trapped in backup goaltender hell for the rest of his time in Pittsburgh. Now he gets to spend part of his career in Vegas, and if anyone deserves it, it's one of the nicest people in the NHL.

He looks very happy to be here. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

LOSERS: Tourists

You've waited all year. The time is finally here. You're going to Las Vegas, the fun capital of the world. You've packed your sunscreen, bathing suits, and a few hundred bucks you've been squirreling away to use for your can't-miss blackjack system while your spouse and child are asleep in the room.

An ambitious concierge gives you an offer you can't refuse: free tickets to a hockey game. "There's a hockey team here? In Vegas?" "There sure is, and we want to give the three of you free tickets, compliments of the hotel." "Well, sure, we like sports and have always wanted to try out this hockey thing, so let's go tonight!"

As Calvin Pickard skates onto the ice to replace Fleury with the Knights down 5-0 to the Avalanche six minutes into the first period, regret washes over you. We skipped Cirque Du Soleil for this? You go to ask the fans sitting around you if the team is always this bad, when it hits you like a face card when you hit on 12: everyone else at the game is also there because someone gave them free tickets.

You and the family decide to bail after the first period. Weeks later, you're having dinner with two other couples. You spend 45 minutes trashing the NHL. This happens all over the world for the next year. Eventually, the bad word of mouth about the product sinks the Knights. Later, the NHL.

Years go by. You have forgotten about the NHL. Suddenly, your son comes to you and says the words that send a chill down your spine.

"I want to be a hockey player. Like the Vegas guys."

You drop to your knees and shake your fist at the sky. You took your impressionable child to Vegas and the bad influences got to him.

"Why, Vegas?!? Why?!?!"

Sick uni, though. Photo by Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

You disown your son. You get a divorce. Eventually, the world gets too hot to even go to Vegas in the winter. Yet you go back to the arena, to the place that ruined your life. You go there to find peace. Only the arena has fallen into disrepair. It's not in use. It's so hot, though, that you have to climb through a hole in the fence and go inside the building for shelter from the sun.

You sit in that same seat where you watched that one period of hockey in 2017. A disheveled man sits next to you and vomits on the floor. You ask if he needs help, only to be shooed away. You look closer. You can't believe it.

It's George McPhee.

You tell him your story. He cries. Guilt washes over McPhee. He grabs you by the shirt, drops to his knees and begs for forgiveness.

"This is my fault," McPhee wails.

You choose to take the high road, not entirely understanding the situation. "No, good sir, this could have happened to anyone."

"I can't help but think things would have gone differently if I made different choices," he says, the dried vomit now caked in his graying beard.

"How could you have known?" you say reassuringly.

"I could have taken Manson instead of Theodore," he says.

You hug McPhee. You pull him close. You look him in the eyes and pull him close again. You whisper into his ear, "This is for my family."

You punch McPhee in the stomach, causing him to vomit once more. "You were right," you scream, "it was all your fault."

You return home to repair your life, one that was destroyed because you wanted to see a free hockey game in Vegas in 2017.

The Golden Knights Weren't the Only Losers in the Expansion Draft published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Injury Ward: Malkin, Byfuglien, Pacioretty, Raanta, Krieder & Pavelski

Here’s this week’s latest in the world of injury updates! If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza.

Nick Ritchie – Is not travelling with the team as they continue their tour of Western Canada through Calgary on Friday and Edmonton on Saturday. He hasn’t been practicing either, so it’s hard to imagine him making an impact in fantasy leagues for the rest of this season.

Ryan Getzlaf – Has been practicing and is currently travelling with the team as their road trip brings them to Calgary on Friday and Edmonton on Saturday. I get the feeling that Getzlaf will return from an upper-body injury in one of those two games.

Antti Raanta – He’s been sidelined for about four months with a knee injury, and will finally start practicing with the team at some point this week. Darcy Kuemper has been excellent in Raanta’s absence, sporting a 25-19-7 record alongside a 2.40 GAA and .922 SV%. I’d expect Kuemper to close out the regular season, but if the Coyotes make the playoffs, it sounds like Raanta could be an option.

Torey Krug – It’s possible he returns from a concussion on Wednesday against the Rangers. Krug has 48 points in 59 games this season – a 66-point pace.

Marcus Johansson – Should be back in the lineup on Wednesday against the New York Rangers. Considering he was a game-time decision for Monday’s clash with the Lightning (meaning he was already close to a return), he should be good to go on Wednesday now that he’s had a couple of extra days off.

Rasmus Ristolainen – An illness kept him off the ice for Tuesday’s matchup with the Senators. Buffalo plays three more games this week; Thursday against the Red Wings, Saturday against the Islanders and Sunday against the Blue Jackets. I’d be surprised if Ristolainen didn’t play in at least two of those three games, but it’s more likely that he plays in all three. Ristolainen needs just one more point to record his fourth-straight 40-point season.

Sam Bennett – While he probably won’t be in the lineup on Wednesday against the Stars, it sounds like Bennett will return on Friday against the Ducks or Sunday against the Sharks. He has recently resumed practicing as he recovers from an upper-body injury. Calgary has already clinched a playoff spot, so while he could play immediately if the remaining regular season games were more important, the team is happy to let him return to full health.

Mikko Rantanen – Out for an “extended period”, meaning he won’t be in the lineup on Wednesday when the Avalanche take on the Golden Knights. Colorado is clinging to the second wild-card spot in the West and is playing some of their most crucial games of the season. I get the feeling Rantanen would be in the lineup if this were just a minor injury, let’s hope it’s not too serious.

Gabriel Landeskog – Has been shooting the puck and participating in some team drills. At this point, it looks like he’s about two weeks away from a return. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll be back in time to have an impact on your fantasy hockey championship or the end of the NHL regular season.

Mats Zuccarello – He’s been able to stickhandle for the past week which is a great sign considering he broke his arm about a month ago. He’s still dealing with a bit of pain when he shoots the puck, but he continues to increase the intensity of his stickhandling every day as he returns to full health. He has been making great progress and is currently travelling with the team through Western Canada – a trip that sees the Stars face the Flames on Wednesday, Oilers on Thursday and Canucks on Saturday.

Zach Parise – The Wild hope to see Parise return at some point this weekend, either on Friday against the Golden Knights or Sunday against the Coyotes. Minnesota has a tough schedule to close out the season and will need all hands on deck if they’re going to qualify for postseason action.

Paul Byron – Was knocked down by an uppercut from MacKenzie Weegar of the Panthers as the two dropped the gloves on Tuesday in Montreal. Byron appeared dazed as he stumbled to the locker room after the fight and did not return to the game. While early speculation leads me to believe that Byron suffered a concussion during the fight, it’s officially being called an upper-body injury by the team.

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Sami Vatanen – Missed both Monday’s game against the Sabres and Tuesday’s team practice because he was sick. An illness kept Vatanen out of the lineup for a few weeks earlier in the month, but we don’t know if this is related to that.

Chris Kreider – Has missed the past two games with a lower-body injury and his status remains day-to-day. The Rangers face the Bruins on Wednesday night, so we should get an update on Kreider’s status shortly after this article is posted. As I write this, he hasn’t yet been ruled out of Wednesday’s game.

Kris Letang – Is day-to-day with an upper-body injury and hasn’t been practicing. Coach Mike Sullivan declined to comment on whether this injury was related to the on that Letang suffered in late February when he was wrestled to the ice by Shayne Gostisbehere of the Flyers. As you can tell from the video below, it appears that Letang might have injured his neck on the takedown from Gostisbehere. The fact that he had surgery on his neck in 2017 to repair a herniated disc makes this situation all the more concerning. Again, this injury might have nothing to do with the last one, but it is worth mentioning since Letang only played three games in between absences.

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Evgeni Malkin – Has been skating and is making good progress as he recovers from an upper-body injury. The Penguins haven’t lost in regulation during this five-game stretch without Malkin and have no reason to rush him back considering they’ve almost secured a playoff spot.

Joe Pavelski – The Sharks are considered contenders for the Stanley Cup this season and will need a healthy lineup to achieve that goal, so they’re understandably being cautious with Pavelski’s recovery from a lower-body injury. San Jose’s captain has been participating in some on-ice drills and it’s possible that he returns on Thursday against the Blackhawks. The team has lost all four games they’ve played during this stretch without Pavelski and are currently riding a six-game losing streak.

Erik Karlsson – The team still hopes for Karlsson to get back in the lineup before the regular season ends, but he’s no longer skating every day. While the team hasn’t officially announced that Karlsson has suffered a setback in his recovery from a groin injury, it’s hard to imagine that this was a planned part of his rehab. He had been skating every day and all of a sudden coach Pete DeBoer announces he won’t be skating every day going forward? If he were progressing well, wouldn’t he be skating more and more in an attempt to get back into form for the playoffs?

Ondrej Palat – Suffered an upper-body injury on Monday against the Bruins. While we don’t know the exact nature of the injury and how long he’ll be out, we do know that he isn’t dealing with a concussion.

Jake Gardiner – Has been skating but not taking contact as he continues to recover from a back injury. The Leafs play six more games before the end of the regular season and I think they’ll try to get Gardiner back in the lineup for at least one of those games, so he doesn’t go into the playoffs completely cold. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll return soon enough to have an impact on your fantasy hockey championship this year.

Max Pacioretty – Went down awkwardly on this play as his legs bent at angles that no legs should ever have to experience. Fortunately, the injury wasn’t as bad as it originally appeared and his status remains day-to-day.

Marc-Andre Fleury – Hasn’t been practicing but could join the team in Colorado for Wednesday’s matchup with the Avalanche. Malcolm Subban has posted a 3-1 record in Fleury’s absence but gave up three goals in three of those four games (the fourth game being a shutout).

Michal Kempny – Is dealing with a long-term injury that could keep him out for the rest of the season. The team is waiting on test results to determine whether or not Kempny will need surgery for his lower-body ailment.

Laurent Brossoit – Has been progressing well from a lower-body injury but whether or not he participates in Wednesday’s practice hasn’t yet been decided.

Josh Morrissey – Is still on target for a return in early April, but we don’t know exactly when he’ll be back.

Dustin Byfuglien – The aim is for Big Buff to participate in Wednesday’s practice, which will give the coaching staff a better idea of when exactly he’ll be ready for a return to the lineup.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/injury-ward/injury-ward-malkin-byfuglien-pacioretty-raanta-krieder-pavelski/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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15 Fearless Forecasts for the 2018-19 Season

Today marks the beginning of the NHL season, a.k.a. Fantasy Hockey Christmas, when everyone is convinced their players will bestow upon them great gifts and not end up being lumps of coal. It also means predictions abound; and here you get my 15 (yes, I’m doing 15 again) Fearless Forecasts for the 2018-19 season. My 2017-18 forecasts had more hits and near misses than ever before, so I’ve got my work cut out for me to keep my predictions audacious yet my track record still somewhat solid.

Before I get to the actual forecasts, let me once again reinforce a couple of important things. These are fearless fantasy forecasts, which means they’re supposed to be bold yet at least plausible, plus fantasy relevant, as highlighted in the explanation for each. Also, you should assume all skaters involved will play 75+ games and no netminders will suffer a major injury. With that out of the way, here we go! Also, there’s a forums poll to vote on which of these will come true.

1) All three Vezina Trophy finalists will never have previously been a finalist

For fantasy purposes, what I’m saying is be prepared for a changing of the guard among top NHL/fantasy netminders, as Pekka Rinne, Devan Dubnyk, Tuukka Rask, Henrik Lundqvist, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Jonathan Quick all will not be nominees this year. My primary reasoning is simple – each is now past what last summer I surmised is the peak age for goalies.

My prediction also means I see Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck (both of whom were first time finalists last year) coming back to earth somewhat. For Vasilevskiy it boils down to him still yet having shown he can be a top netminder for an entire campaign (his GAA was 2.77, 2.89, 4.04, 3.03 in the last four months of the season), while for Hellebuyck it’s because of the added pressure of his new contract and playing for what is now a legitimate cup contending team. And I don’t see a comeback for previous winner Carey Price, whom I’m not sure will ever be the same post-injury plus will have a tire fire of a team in front of him. Previous finalist Ben Bishop likely will be hurt by the departure of goalie-friendly Ken Hitchcock in Dallas. And lastly, I’m also ruling out previous winner Braden Holtby since Stanley Cup hangovers are apparently real for netminders, as it’s been nearly 20 seasons since a reigning Cup winning team produced a Vezina finalist the following season.

Who do I think will end up being finalists? For the record I’ll go with three of Antti Raanta, John Gibson, Frederik Andersen, Matt Murray, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Martin Jones.

2) Mathew Barzal will outpoint John Tavares

Yes, I realize this happened last season and Michael Clifford has already mentioned it in his Ramblings; but I still think the vast majority of pundits have Tavares doing even better in Toronto, especially after his successful preseason, and Barzal shedding points. This includes Dobber’s Fantasy Guide, which has Tavares at 87 points and Barzal at 74.

But there will only be so many points to go around in Toronto; and Mike Babcock may opt to have Tavares center a 1A line, with Auston Matthews manning a 1B top line. Let’s also not forget Babcock is stingy with ice time. Last season Tavares averaged 19:56 per game, of which 3:10 was on the PP. In Toronto, the highest ice time for any forward in 2017-18 was Matthews at a mere 18:08 per game, and he also led the way with just 2:17 per game on the PP. So those who foresee Tavares manning a loaded PP unit that skates for 3+ minutes per game, cancel those plans. Once the regular season starts it’ll be two units with neither one receiving considerably more time versus the other.

In stark contrast, Barzal now becomes “the guy” for the Islanders. Of course the concern is whether he can truly step in for Tavares, particularly with defenses now being able to key in on his line and with the potential for a dreaded sophomore slump. But Barzal just might mesh well with Josh Bailey, with whom he’s been lining up with this preseason, as Bailey and Barzal shared the ice for only 10% of their even strength shifts last season yet Bailey scored 15% of his even-strength points with Barzal on the ice.

Also, although it’s not predictive data, there’s the fact that since 2000-01 only one other center age 20 or older scored 85+ points as a rookie: Evgeni Malkin, whom it just so happens bested his rookie output of 85 points (i.e., exactly what Barzal scored) by 21 in posting 106 points as a sophomore. What’s more, Malkin did so when Sidney Crosby missed 29 games; so there’s precedent for Barzal stepping up big time in his sophomore campaign to fill the role of a departed/injured star.

3) Ilya Kovalchuk will score 35+ goals, but under 55 points

In each of the five campaigns he spent in Russia since abruptly leaving the NHL prior to the 2013-14 campaign, Kovalchuk tallied more assists than goals. And in all his NHL seasons he never once finished with even ten more goals than assists, posting only 18 more goals than assists for his NHL career to date (417 G, 399 A). Moreover, of the last seven instances of wingers age 35+ (Kovalchuk is 35 years old) who scored 35 or more goals in a season, six had more assists than goals in the same campaign.

So why am I predicting Kovalchuk will put up Cy Young stats for the 2018-19 campaign, when it’s not really in character with his past numbers nor with what other aging goal scorers did in their twilight years? It largely boils down to a perfect storm of sorts between Kovalchuk’s power-play specialization and the team’s need in that exact area.

Kovalchuk, who led the NHL in average power-play time per game among forwards a whopping six seasons in a row during his first NHL tenure, is clearly a power play specialist and figures to be deployed prominently with the man advantage. But beyond that, in the last five seasons no LA forward has tallied more than 11 PPGs in a season, so they need a finisher when it comes to the man advantage. Kovalchuk will be looked upon to fill LA’s PPG void, and my take is he’ll be more than up to the task of doing so, in the process padding his goal total to an extent that it will dwarf his assists.

4) No more than five goalies will get 5+ shutouts

Over the past three seasons the number of goalies who had 5+ shutouts was 8 (2015-16), 9 (2016-17), and 7 (2017-18). But prior to that, there was a stretch of six straight seasons where 10+ goalies had five or more per season, with 12+ goalies having 5+ shutouts in five of those six campaigns. So why would the number shrink even more than 2017-18, when scoring was already its highest in many seasons?

For one, scoring could go even higher, as many atop the 2017-18 leaderboard are still in peak scoring years. Beyond that, the NHL doesn’t figure to have many terrible teams. Sure – Montreal and Ottawa should have poor records like they did last season, but probably not be much worse. That’s important, since when the dust settled on 2018-19 only one team had fewer than 200 goals scored, namely Buffalo with 198, and they should be vastly improved for 2018-19. Looking back over the previous two seasons, there were always two (or even more) truly dreadful teams, with two squads potting 186 or fewer goals in 2015-16, and three with 180 or fewer in 2016-17. In other words, there will be fewer cakewalk games in 2018-19 for goalies to rely upon to pad their shutout numbers.

Add to that the somewhat condensed schedule to accommodate each team’s bye week, plus teams being more conservative than ever in terms of regulating goalie starts. Then there’s, as noted above in my first fearless forecast, the aging crop of former great NHL netminders whose skills – including shutout prowess – are eroding. All these factors should result in the number of goalie shutouts dropping enough for this forecast to come true.

5) The NHL’s highest scoring forward teammates will be two of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron

I know that by my own informal research Marchand and Bergeron are past peak age for NHL forwards, but what can’t be ignored is Bergeron, Pastrnak and Marchand’s output during the Bruce Cassidy era. Bergeron’s 2016-17 consisted of 29 points in 52 games, then 24 in 27 under Cassidy, Pasta had 43 points in 48 games pre-Cassidy, then 46 in 47 after the new coach was installed, while Marchand had 55 points in 55 games before ending with 35 in 30 under Cassidy. So since Cassidy took over, Marchand has 115 points in 93 games, while Pastrnak and Bergeron each sit just below the point-per-game threshold (106 points in 109 games for Pasta, 87 in 91 for Bergeron).

And beyond that, Marchand and Bergeron both missed time last season, which likely cost all three of them points, what with Marchand and Pastrnak having to settle for Riley Nash as a center for a stretch of time and Bergeron and Pasta making due with Danton Heinen or Anders Bjork as a second winger while Marchand was out of the lineup. If the three able to play an entire season together under Cassidy, then the sky could be the limit; and when the dust settles, two of the three might just form the best NHL forward duo in terms of point production.

6) Zach Parise will score 70+ points

It wasn’t long ago that Parise was an elite fantasy winger who was consistently being drafted within the top 50 picks in roto and H2H leagues. Fast forward to now and Parise, who turned 34 years old during the offseason, has scored a mere 66 points in 111 games during his last two injury-plagued seasons for Minnesota, leaving him to be forecasted to score at a mere 47 point pace in the Fantasy Guide and as of this past weekend was being selected around spot 165 in Yahoo leagues, after the likes of Conor Sheary and Tomas Hertl.

But things might not be as bad as they seem. For one, Parise had 16 points in his final 20 games to end 2017-18, firing 59 SOG despite taking the ice for an average of only 16:15 per game during that stretch. Also, although it’s true that Jason Zucker’s break out could serve as a roadblock for Parise being the top LW for the Wild, let’s not forget that the team ices two solid lines and PP units, ensuring that if Parise’s game is up to the task he’ll still have a spot to produce.

Beyond that, we know the Wild are more than happy to let deserving grey beards push youngsters aside if warranted. Look no further than teammate Eric Staal, who’s just three months younger than Parise and who himself posted 76 points last season after having surprised the fantasy world by rebounding from 33 points in 65 games in 2015-16 to 65 in 82 contests in 2016-17. I’m certainly not advocating that you draft Parise among 70-point players; but don’t entirely disregard him on draft day, as his strong finish to last season, his motivation to succeed given his large paycheck, and his ability to produce in past years (67 point scoring pace from 2013-14 through 2015-16 for the Wild) could make him the next………Eric Staal.

7) At least ten teams will score 10+ Shorthanded Goals

Over the past five seasons the numbers of teams scoring 10+ SHGs has been, in reverse chronological order, 5, 5, 6, 2, and 5. So why do I see the number spiking to ten this season? First, more and more teams are embracing a 4F, 1D powerplay, and that either means a 1-3-1 orientation with just one player back to guard against a breakaway, or a second point man who’s normally a forward. In either case, it paves the way for teams on the PK to get shorthanded tallies.

The second reason is teams are embracing the idea of using their top scorers to kill penalties. Just last season Anze Kopitar, Mikko Koivu and Brayden Point has over 2:00 each per game on the PK, and more than a dozen forwards who scored 60+ points (or at a 60+ point full season past) in 2017-18 were out there for at least 90 seconds of PK duty per game, including Dylan Larkin (1:59 per game), Mikael Granlund (1:55), Sean Couturier (1:54), Dustin Brown (1:51), Patrice Bergeron (1:49), Brad Marchand and Vincent Trocheck (1:48 each), Aleksander Barkov (1:45), Max Pacioretty (1:43), Reilly Smith (1:40), William Karlsson (1:38), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1:37), John Tavares (1:34), plus Ryan O’Reilly and Tyler Seguin (1:33 each). With that much talent seeing that much time killing penalties – not to mention the other great players getting a minute or more – plus the proliferation of 4F, 1D PPs, teams will be less shy about deploying their top players on the PK. Accordingly, there will be more shorthanded goals scored, enough I think to essentially double the high from the past five seasons.

8) J.T. Miller will outpoint Steven Stamkos

I consider this a fearless forecast, not just because of past results but also the Fantasy Guide predicting 86 points for Stamkos versus only 72 for Miller. Last season Stamkos finished with 86 points after 20 in only 17 games during an abbreviated – due to injury – 2016-17. But last season’s totals are deceiving, as he started with 35 points in 20 games, meaning he tallied only 51 in his final 58 contests. And the 2016-17 injury was his second major one, with him posting only 136 points in 159 contests in the two seasons immediately following his first. Stamkos also turns 29 this season, and thus likely has already peaked.

As for Miller, he admittedly has nowhere near the resume of Stamkos, having posted 58 points last season to best his previous career high of only 56. But Miller will be turning 26 this season and thus is likely reaching his peak, plus he ignited for 20 points in 22 games upon being traded to Tampa. And Miller not only staked out a spot on the potent Tampa PP1, taking the ice for 59% or more of its man advantage minutes in eight of the team’s last ten regular season contests, but seven of those 20 fourth quarter points came on the PP, versus a mere four for Stamkos, through whom the PP used to be run.

Is Stamkos more naturally talented than Miller. No question he is. But nearing age 30 and following two major injuries, the truth is other than a run of 17 games in 2016-17 and 20 games in 2017-18, Stamkos has been a 70-point player since 2014-15. It might just be that Miller, armed with a fresh new $5.25M per season contract, emerges as the #2 weapon for the Lightning, outscoring Stamkos in the process.

9) Philipp Grubauer will finish within the top four in SV% among 40+ game NHL netminders

One of my major hits last year was predicting that Antti Raanta would finish within the top five in netminder save percentage, with him going on to lead the league! So I figured I’d go to the well again for 2018-19, this time selecting Grubauer, but making it a slightly bolder prediction by saying he’d finish in the top four, not top five.

And guess what – my logic in making the prediction is largely the same, as Raanta is first in the NHL in even strength save percentage since 2014-15, but guess who’s second? None other than Grubauer. And although he’s ostensibly walking into a 1A/1B situation in Colorado, I see him easily seizing the starting job by the all-star break over UFA to be Semyon Varlamov and, when all is said and done for 2018-19, finishing in the top four in save percentage among NHL netminders who play in 40+ games.

10) James van Riemsdyk will score more goals than Patrik Laine

Last season Laine potted 44 goals, to JVR’s 36, with those 36 tallies being 17% higher than JVR’s previous career best of 30. So why do I think JVR can outsnipe perhaps the purest young and up and coming goal scorer in the league this season? Goals per 60 minutes rates, and linemates.

What do Brad Marchand, Vladimir Tarasenko, Sidney Crosby, and David Pastrnak all have in common? They scored more goals that JVR’s 65 over the past two seasons yet each also had a lower goals per 60 minutes than JVR’s 1.55, which was seventh best among all NHLers who played 140+ games during that span. Just last season JVR potted 36 while playing only 14:54 per game. And if we go by his 1.79 G/60 from 2017-18 alone and project that to 18 minutes per game – voila, the result is 44 goals.

And JVR is coming back to Philly at what seems like a perfect time in that Wayne Simmonds might be dealing with after-effects of injuries that limited his effectiveness last season, plus is now 30 years old and could be looking at a lesser role, particularly as he’s set to be a UFA. Moreover, with the money they’re paying JVR, it’s all but a lock that at ES and/or on the PP he’ll play alongside one or more of Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek, who each dish out assists more so than score goals.

Then there’s Laine, who although a staple – and feared weapon – on PP1, is a second liner at even strength. And not just that – a second liner who lost the center (Paul Stastny) who helped him explode for 17 goals in his final 23 games last season. Now Laine most likely will be back to being centered by Bryan Little, who, although likely to produce better than last season, is a step down from Stastny both in general and in terms of chemistry with Laine.

And whereas JVR’s ice time should spike, Laine’s will likely continue to lag due to the emphasis placed on the Winnipeg top line. Sooner or later Laine will be on that top line, at which point the sky will be the limit; yet for now, best to temper expectations. While we’re on the subject of the Flyers……….

11) Philadelphia will finish within the top three in team goals scored

Most prognosticators, including Dobber himself, have top Flyer scorers each shedding points versus last season, which in turn would translate to the team’s scoring output dropping. But I think what we saw last season, plus the addition of JVR, should only serve to bolster the team’s production, as should the fact that they have two top notch defensemen who can each lead a PP, allowing the team to have a better second unit, which, in turn, should help improve their overall PP conversion percentage.

Their 249 total goals scored last season (averaging to 3.03 goals per game) also is somewhat deceiving, as they finished much stronger than they started, tallying 61 goals in their final 19 regular season games, for an average of 3.31 goals per game. Translated over an entire season that would be equal to 272 goals, which in turn would’ve been good enough for third in the league for 2017-18.

They also play in the East, home to six of the eight worst team in goals against last season. Granted, so do some of the teams which finished ahead of them in scoring as well, but as noted above I’m banking on a Stanley Cup hangover for the Caps, plus the Pens are aging and were luckier than normal in dodging injuries last season. The B’s are too dependent on one line, and Toronto’s stars don’t get the ice time needed to produce in droves. Thus, put the Flyers down for third in goals behind the Jets and Tampa, and move their skaters up your draft boards accordingly.

12) At least two non-rookies who’ve never scored 55 points in a season will score 80+ in 2018-19

Lost amid there being 21 players who posted 80+ points in 2017-18 (marking the first time since the 2009-10 season that even ten players reached that threshold) was that only one non-rookie (Mikko Rantanen) did so without having scored at least 55 points in a prior season. So what’s the big deal, this kind of scoring leap probably happens all the time right? Nope. Prior to last season the most recent instance of any player scoring 80+ points without having posted 55+ in a prior season was Taylor Hall in 2013-14, and that was after he posted 50 in 45 games in the 2012-13 campaign. You get the point – it’s a very rare occurrence.

Despite this, I think not only will it happen again in 2017-18, but two or more players will do so. And while my forecast doesn’t require me to say who exactly will fulfill the criteria, I’d go ahead and tell you the three I think have the best chance. Nico Hischier, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Sam Reinhart.

Hischier was a first overall pick, and there is precedent for big breakouts for them in their second season (see, e.g., Steven Stamkos); plus he figures to be playing alongside Taylor Hall yet again, which certainly won’t hurt his cause. For Dubois, he was getting not only top line duty in the final quarter of the season, but seeing oodles of power-play time and helping to ignite Artemi Panarin while at the same time ending the campaign with 17 points of his own in his final 16 games. As for Reinhart, it’s his “magical fourth season” and he had nearly a point per game over the second half of the season as it appeared all his dots had finally connected.

13) At least 13 defensemen will score 15+ goals

Despite the surge in high point producing rearguards last season (as was predicted in one of my correct forecasts from 2016-17), only a total of nine defensemen potted 15 or more goals. And as it turns out that was just about the average of eight over the previous four seasons (based on yearly totals of 6, 10, 10, and 6).

So why do I see a big jump in the total during this coming season? For one, all nine rearguards who accomplished the feat last season were at or below the peak age for defensemen, so they don’t figure to do worse. Beyond that, four others (Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Tyson Barrie, and Torey Krug) were on pace for 15+ except for missing too many games. Right there that’s already 13 in total, and that’s not even factoring in new members of the 15+ club.

But perhaps the key factor prompting this prediction is more d-men than ever are firing lots of pucks on net. Last season 44 rearguards played 60+ games while averaging at least two SOG per game, which was up from 33 in 2016-17, 31 in 2015-16, and 29 in both 2014-15 and 2013-14. That’s a big jump, and I don’t see it as a trend that will reverse itself this season, which should lead to more 15+ goal scorers. While we’re on the subject of SOG……

14) At least nine players will score 30+ goals without exceeding 200 SOG

As poolies, we associate high volume goal scorers with high volume shooters, and vice versa. Rightfully so, since of the 18 forwards who registered 250+ SOG last season 11 had 31+ goals and none had fewer than 22. But on the other side of the coin, of the 32 players who scored 30+ goals last season, six had fewer than 200 SOG, marking the second straight season that six players met both criteria, up from four in each of the 2015-16 and 2014-15 seasons and zero in 2013-14. I’m sensing a trend – one that will only continue to grow.

Simply put, there’s a new breed of player emerging in today’s NHL – what I’ll call the selectively shooting sniper. And as often happens in the NHL, trends get noticed are adopted, especially if they lead to success, and lo and behold all six who potted 30+ goals despite less than 200 SOG last season were on teams that made the playoffs.

As for the fantasy impact, be careful when drafting for SOG and/or goals. The days of one being high meaning the other is likewise automatically high – although still true in the majority of cases – is no longer a given.

And last but not least, those of you who’ve read my forecasts over the years know that I swing for the fences each year with my last pick, so without further ado…….

15) Jeff Petry will lead the Montreal Canadiens in scoring for 2018-19

Despite the tire fire that was the 2017-18 Montreal Canadiens season, Petry, whose previous career best had been 28 points, shined. He seized upon an opportunity when Shea Weber got hurt and not only ended up with 42 total points but posted 28 points of those 42 in his final 41 games, for a 56-point full season pace. Newsflash – that would’ve led the team in scoring last year. And with Shea Weber out until at least mid-December and possibly longer, Petry will get a chance to pick up where he left off.

But what this really boils down to is Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi and Tomas Tatar all not taking a step forward. The relevant details on Drouin is in my cage match on him from earlier this offseason and I covered of Gallagher in my special bubble keeper week edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters from July. But here are the high (low?) points.

Of Drouin’s last 99 points, 48 have come on the power play. To be so reliant upon man advantage scoring is not a recipe for a high output, especially on the 2018-19 Habs. There’s also the fact that despite being more of a focal point offensively last season, Drouin’s SOG rate actually dropped from 2016-17 to 2017-18. He’s also not only never had an IPP (i.e., the percentage of goals scored while he’s on the ice on which he received a point) above 70%, which is the number usually achieved by star players, he’s actually never even hit the 65% mark, which means he doesn’t have a nose for scoring. And that was despite having an offensive zone starting percentage of 62%+ not only last season but each of the prior four!

For Gallagher, although he had only had 23 assists (versus 31 goals), his secondary assists rate was his highest since 2013-14, suggesting despite so few assists he overachieved in that area. And given his already high goal rate, chances are if his secondary assists rate drops he wouldn’t expect to get more goals or primary assists, which in turn means fewer points.

Gallagher also established a career high in IPP, a function of having to do more on his own due to playing with subpar linemates. But guess what – with Montreal not having upgraded this offseason the same thing is likely to occur, except this time teams are clued in and will focus more on Gallagher’s line. Lastly, his personal shooting percentage last season (11.2%) was higher than it’s been in any full season and marked only the second time it was above 9.4%. And his average shot distance was 25.8, up from 25.2 last year and 23.4 in 2015-16; so he was shooting from farther away yet more shots were resulting in goals. Together this data suggests he lucked into probably a handful of goals he shouldn’t have tallied.

As for Domi and Tatar, my concern is shellshock coming to the hotbed of Montreal, where the media and fans are ravenous and unforgiving. And with Domi being a former top prospect plus son of an NHLer most Habs fans remember, I think he’ll fare especially poorly under the spotlight, leaving Petry as the team’s de facto scoring leader.

* * *

There they are –15 Fearless Forecasts for the 2018-19 season. A few were last minute additions because originally I had ones that included Alex Galchenyuk and Seth Jones, but injuries made it so I had to replace those. Am I making excuses? No, but I wanted that to be known. The magic question is how many of these will actually come true? Only time will tell; but as usual I’m giving you a say, as here again the link to vote on which forecast (or forecasts) will end up being correct predictions, while also adding your own predictions if you’re so inclined. Last year your votes correlated pretty well with the ones that did, in fact, come true, so let’s see if you can match or even exceed your past success this time around.

One last note that I like to always emphasize. While of course I want this to be a fun read, I’m hopeful you didn’t just digest it solely with an eye toward fun or speculation. Whether or not the forecasts come true there are fantasy lessons embedded in each one, so make sure you go back through the list and seize upon those takeaways to help get a leg up in your league.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/15-fearless-forecasts-for-the-2018-19-season/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Summarizing the Western Conference

Today is the last Saturday without regular season NHL for a long while. We’ve survived the offseason and the too-long preseason. It also means it’s the last draft weekend, so if you’re in need of a quick reference for your drafts, head over to the Dobber Shop to grab the guide. There may be too much to take in just one day but the accompanying projections and draft lists can help in a pinch.

Many promising young stars have been cut from their NHL team in recent days and the most recent was Lias Andersson being sent to the Rangers’ AHL affiliate. The top-10 pick from 2017 will have to wait to get back to the NHL after finishing the season with the Rangers last year.

There is nothing to panic about fantasy-wise unless you drafted him in one-year leagues. Not every teenager can step into the NHL in their first year or two. Whether he earned a spot in the NHL to start the year is another question, but this isn’t some sort of indictment on his long-term fantasy value.

With Seth Jones injured, Markus Nutivaara was skating alongside Zach Werenski in practice yesterday. The latter was confirmed to patrol the top PP unit, but this could give Nutivaara some ancillary value in deeper leagues. He’s also a name to keep in mind for those that play DFS.

St. Louis deployed some interesting power play units in practice yesterday:

PP units for tonight:

Maroon/O'Reilly/Tarasenko/Parayko/Bozak

Schwartz/Schenn/Kyrou/Perron/Pietrangelo#stlblues

— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) September 28, 2018

Now, whichever unit has Vladimir Tarasenko is the de facto PP1, but the way the talent is split leads me to believe this could be a split-TOI situation for the Blues, at least to start the year. Not that the top guys were overly reliant on PP production last year but this could be an issue for upside this year.

Yesterday I started my round-up for those with their drafts this weekend. My Ramblings through the offseason and preseason have comprised of tens of thousands of words and expecting people to have read and remember them all is unrealistic. I’m going to go team by team and review some notable players I’ve discussed, which will include their outlook for 2018-19.

Today is the Western Conference.

Anaheim Ducks

With the recent injury to Corey Perry, the door for Ondrej Kase to get those top PP minutes has been kicked down. He may not skate with Ryan Getzlaf a lot but if he gets those top minutes, improving on last year’s production seems likely.

Rickard Rakell continues to be undervalued in standard Yahoo! leagues. Not many wingers can provide 30 goals, 30 assists, 3 shots per game, and triple-digit hits. Rakell is one of them.

Ryan Getzlaf can push a point per game but don’t just focus on his assist totals. He can provide two shots per game and triple-digit hits. If you’re avoiding drafting a top centre early, he’s one to grab later in drafts.

Arizona Coyotes

The injury to Alex Galchenyuk has muddled a lot of things. With the existing injury to Christian Dvorak, this is not a team deep down the middle and we’ve seen talk about Clayton Keller or Vinnie Hinostroza possibly sliding to the middle.

Speaking of Keller, don’t be surprised if he pushes past 70 points, even if Galchenyuk misses a couple weeks of the season.

Jakob Chychrun is a guy to target in deeper drafts who can not only provide real-time stats like solid hits and blocks, and perhaps to get to the 30-point mark.

Antti Raanta should be a late target in net for a lot of people.

Calgary Flames

In all formats, Johnny Gaudreau ranks as one of the highest players on my list. Not many players can threaten 90 points, but he can, and can do so at a wing position, even without hits or blocked shots.

Mark Giordano is one of my favourite targets outside the top-12 defencemen. He had to share PP duties with Dougie Hamilton last year and does not have that threat this year. The additions of Elias Lindholm and James Neal should add more scoring and help Giordano surpass 40 points again.

Matthew Tkachuk looks primed for a big year in all formats but even more so in leagues counting hits or PIMs.

Colorado Avalanche

Beyond the usual suspects, one guy to watch is Tyson Jost. I’m not sure he’ll have much relevance in most leagues, but in deeper leagues, he should be the fourth forward on the top PP unit. He’s cheap source of PP points going very late. Again, only for deeper leagues.

Be wary of drafting Gabriel Landeskog too high in multi-cat leagues. Last year is probably as good as it gets. Expecting improvement beyond that is asking a bit too much.

If you miss out on guys like John Klingberg, Shayne Gostisbehere, and John Carlson, drafting Tyson Barrie is just fine. He should pass 50 points again.

Dallas Stars

We know all about the top stars (pun very much intended). Don’t be shy to grab either Tyler Seguin or Jamie Benn in the second round. This team, thankfully, won’t be the Ken Hitchcock Dallas Stars. Look for them to get back to being fun to watch again.

Jason Spezza’s health is always a concern but he has the inside track to getting back on the top PP unit.

Valeri Nichushkin, on the other hand, doesn’t look like he’ll be featured on the top PP unit anytime soon. I love his talent but we’ve been down this road before and he’s already a bit nicked up in the preseason. Look elsewhere.

The defence corps is going to be a lot of fun to watch this year. Don’t be surprised if Miro Heiskanen has a Calder-worthy season, though his true fantasy relevance probably won’t be very high just yet, even if he does skate with Klingberg.

Edmonton Oilers

Given the goings-on in the preseason, Ty Rattie is going to be a popular pick. We’ve seen a lot of wingers fall off Connor McDavid’s line in his brief career. I’m more focused on drafting Jesse Puljujarvi late. Surely, he has to eventually make his way to the top PP unit, right?

I also am a fan of Kailer Yamamoto but his promotion to the top PP unit seems unlikely.

Oscar Klefbom is one of the more under-valued defencemen in drafts. He’s regularly going outside the top-30 defencemen and he’s more than capable of 200 shots and 40 points.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being available around pick 100 and having multi-positional eligibility seems like a very nice option. Let’s just hope that 2017-18 doesn’t rear its ugly head and have a lineup shuffle every other game.

Los Angeles Kings

To me, Anze Kopitar is one of the most over-valued players in standard Yahoo! leagues right now. He had a career year pretty much across the board and came in around player-20. He’s being often drafted around player 30-35. Expecting him to nearly repeat last year is what his ADP is demanding. I’d rather draft Jeff Carter 100 picks later.

A lot of people I’ve seen have Ilya Kovalchuk in the 60-point neighbourhood. I think, for the most part, this is people (present company included) saying, ‘I really don’t know how this is going to go.’ We give our best guess and move along. He’s a risk.

I really hope Tyler Toffoli bounces back but he should be locked out of the top PP unit. Not that he’s often found himself there in the past, but it’ll continue to hinder his fantasy upside.

Minnesota Wild

The word is out on Jason Zucker and he’s going with frequency in the top-10 rounds of a 12-team league. There’s nothing wrong with that, though. He’s a discounted Rickard Rakell.

Eric Staal is being drafted like he’ll repeat close to last year. Maybe not quite 40-plus goals, but it seems 30-plus is the expectation. I’m not sure he’s worth his ADP. This is another instance where I’ll wait and grab someone like Jeff Carter, or even Mika Zibanejad or Nico Hischier.

I don’t have a particular issue with where Matt Dumba is being drafted, but I don’t think there’s a lot of profit to be had, either. He’s fine as a second defenceman in that he shouldn’t bust, but he won’t take another huge leap, either.

I’m a believer in Mikael Granlund’s career turnaround. You should be too.

Nashville Predators

Eeli Tolvanen being sent to the AHL (temporarily) is not what early drafters were hoping for but this won’t last long. He’ll be back sooner rather than later.

I believe that Kevin Fiala forces his way to the top PP unit. In fact, he’ll take another step altogether. Look for him to push 30 goals.

Everyone is waiting for the year Filip Forsberg pushes a point per game in a healthy season. I’m willing to bite this year.

I’m not one buying the half-season sample from Ryan Ellis last year. He can be a 40-point guy but expecting more than that from him is expecting too much. Draft accordingly.

St. Louis Blues

The revamped offence has a lot of things up in the air but Patrick Maroon looks locked on the top line and may even get some top PP minutes. He’s far too cheap in multi-category leagues right now.

There aren’t many players who can threaten for the Rocket Richard Trophy and Vladimir Tarasenko is one of them. Being able to draft him in the third round is a gift, it doesn’t matter the format. He looks healthy which is all that matters.

Last year was probably the high-water mark for Alex Pietrangelo. I don’t like drafting established players and expecting more out of them than the previous season just to return value on their ADP. Pietrangelo falls in this category.

Ryan O’Reilly’s ADP is hilariously low. He’s also another guy I’d flat-out rather draft than Eric Staal, let alone being able to get him several rounds later.

San Jose Sharks

I mean, what can we say? I officially have Brent Burns first and Erik Karlsson third among d-men but picking one over the other is like picking a favourite child.

Joe Pavelski rebounding will depend a lot on the health of Joe Thornton. So goes one as does the other. I will take a gamble on Pavelski but will do so as a winger rather than a centre.

If Evander Kane can manage nearly 80 games again, his ADP is an absolute steal. If he cannot, well, he might return his ADP regardless. He can be a top-50 player in multi-cat leagues even if he plays just 70 games.

Timo Meier is a guy to get late in drafts. He quietly had 20 goals last year and has the profile of a player who can push 30 even without the top PP minutes. He’s been pretty consistently in the top-6 of late in preseason.

Vancouver Canucks

I’m not concerned about a regression from Brock Boeser and you shouldn’t be either. This kid is special.

Speaking of special, if I could only draft one rookie this year, it’s Elias Pettersson. Just the top PP minutes alone should mean he’ll pass 50 points. Not many rookies elsewhere can boast that.

Alex Edler can’t be relied upon to stay healthy but he’s a multi-category monster for 60-plus games. Add the replacement player you can slide in for him and he’s probably worth his ADP.

I don’t think there’s much value to be had on this roster aside from players to be featured on the top power play.

Vegas Golden Knights

There are very few rookies who’ve impressed in the preseason as much than Erik Brannstrom. The suspension to Nate Schmidt had opened the door for Brannstrom to make the team but he was cut a couple days ago. Hold in dynasties but maybe not much here in 2018-19.

Max Pacioretty was due to rebound anyway but having a centre the quality of Paul Stastny should only cement that. He can be a multi-category beast this year at a wing position. Don’t let him pass you by.

Don’t expect Marc-Andre Fleury to repeat last year’s ratios.

William Karlsson will regress but won’t fall off the map. Regardless, Jonathan Marchessault is the guy to own off the top line in multi-cat leagues.

Winnipeg Jets

Even with regression built into his projection, Blake Wheeler comes out as one of my most valuable wingers. He’s a gift pick in the second, even third round.

I love Nikolaj Ehlers but without the prime PP minutes, he won’t reach his true fantasy potential. Be wary of over-drafting him.

I know Jack Roslovic is a sexy sleeper pick this year (just type his name and ‘sleeper’ in the google machine) but I’m not buying that he’ll A) replace Bryan Little on the second line, and B) get top PP minutes. We’ll have to wait for his true breakout season.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-summarizing-the-western-conference/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Henrik Zetterberg, Robert Thomas, John Gibson, and More – August 28

September is right around the corner and that means training camps will be here in no time. Get a leg up on your fantasy league mates by grabbing your copy of the 2018-19 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide today! It has everything you need to get ahead of the curve for the 2018-19 fantasy season.

The big news from the weekend came out of Detroit with the news that Henrik Zetterberg hasn’t really been able to train this off season and this puts his season in doubt. He turns 38 years old early in October and his long-standing back issues are no secret.

Craig Custance of The Athletic tweeted this Monday morning:

Yes. At this point, I'd be surprised if he plays again.

— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) August 27, 2018

Dobber covered this a little bit in his Ramblings yesterday.

Aside from the understanding that Andreas Athanasiou will move to centre, one thing I would like to add is that this undoubtedly solidified Dylan Larkin’s role. Larkin played just under 20 minutes a game last year but with the lack of depth at centre now, it’s easy to see Larkin’s role expanding even more. We could see Larkin end up playing close to Aleksander Barkov minutes, which would be around 22 a night. It’s probably not what Jeff Blashill, or any coach, really wants to do but they don’t have a lot of options.

I am interested to see how Athanasiou fares. He has very solid underlying numbers like controlled zone entries and exits but he’s more of a shooter than a true playmaker. Does he continue his shot-heavy ways or does he expand his game to be a true all-around centre? It’ll be fascinating to watch. He could have relevance in 12-teamers now, but as a late-round flier and not someone necessarily to target.

We’re starting to get more updates on players and their injury recoveries going into training camp. One such note was on Robert Thomas:

Yeo said there are a couple guys they "aren't 100 percent sure on" regarding some of the injuries sustained last season/end of last season. Wants to wait until they get in/meet with doctors first, but Robert Thomas (ankle) sounds like is ready to go when camp opens. #stlblues

— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) August 27, 2018

Thomas is a curious player this year. There were some quotes back in July that Thomas could legitimately be the number-2 centre for the Blues this year, or at least on a line with Ryan O’Reilly. I’m not bullish enough on him to believe he’ll do that but it sure did sound like he’ll have every opportunity to make the team out of camp.

Most people are thinking about the 2018-19 fantasy hockey season but our very own Cam Robinson is looking ahead to the 2019 Entry Draft. A few days ago he released his top-62 rankings for the draft, and you’ll never guess who was at the top of the list. (Jack Hughes. It’s Jack Hughes.) Anyway, for those in dynasty leagues it’s a good opportunity to get a head start. Even if you don’t agree with them, it’s a chance to see whose stock rises and falls over the next 10 months. Sometimes a player’s stock falls for performance, or off-ice issues, or a host of other reasons. If they’re ranked highly now, and not ranked highly in June, it could be a good buying opportunity. Someone like Jakob Chychrun comes to mind. If they’re a good player now, they’ll probably still be a good player for 2019 fantasy rookie drafts. It’s just a good idea to keep track of these things when trying to maximize value.

One thing I like to do when draft season approaches is look at different rankings and ADPs from different sites. This really depends on the competition of a given league but despite the proliferation of information available, there’s a good portion of the fantasy community that are underprepared when their actual draft comes around. Some people do rely on the rankings from a site when making their picks and that can lend itself for different players to be over- or under-drafted.

For today, I want to look at goalies on ESPN and Yahoo only. Here’s a few things to note:

Yahoo has five goalies in their top-25 and this is where they’re ranked: Andrei Vasilevskiy (14), Pekka Rinne (19), Connor Hellebuyck (22), Braden Holtby (24), and Sergei Bobrovsky (25). ESPN has just three goalies in their top-25: Vasilevskiy (15), Bobrovsky (19), Holtby (23). Now, leagues draft differently; sometimes players are really aggressive on goaltenders. All the same, for those drafting on ESPN (I know Dobber won’t be one of them), you could probably draft three skaters and still be able to snag a top-10 goalie from your draft board. On Yahoo, that would be a little more precarious.

Carey Price is ranked a fair bit lower on ESPN (goalie number 14) than on Yahoo (goalie 10). Last week, I wrote that I’m probably not interested in Price being my team’s number-1 goalie but would consider him in the number-2 range. It looks like I may be able to do that in the one league I have on ESPN.

One goalie ranked a bit higher on ESPN is Jonathan Quick, coming in as goalie 4. Over on Yahoo, he’s the seventh-ranked goaltender, between Tuukka Rask and Frederik Andersen. I understand that Quick can be a divisive goalie both in the real world and in the fantasy game but other than his injury-plagued 2016-17, he has at least 25 wins and a .915 save percentage in every season since the lockout year. I guess it’s a matter of how good (or bad) a person thinks the Kings might be this year. It might be fair to say they over-achieved a bit last year, but a healthy Jeff Carter and the signing of Ilya Kovalchuk should make a difference.

John Gibson, meanwhile, is ranked way higher on ESPN (goalie number 6, 41st overall) than he is on Yahoo (goalie 17, 95th overall). I think there are valid concerns about the Anaheim Ducks, chief among them being their aging stars. All the same, goalie 17 seems awfully low for a 25-year old goalie with such a stellar track record. If he starts sliding in your Yahoo drafts and you can legitimately grab him anytime outside the top-10 goalies, it’s too good an opportunity to pass on.

Antti Raanta is ranked kind of low on both sites, coming in as goalie 20 on ESPN and goalie 24 on Yahoo. It’s sort of understandable because repeating a .930 season is nearly impossible for any goalie and despite some changes and additions in the off season, they could still be in tough to be a team which scores enough to provide Raanta with wins. All the same, consider this: Martin Jones was just inside the top-20 goalies last year with 30 wins, a 2.55 GAA, and a save percentage of .915. If you think Raanta can exceed those marks, then he’s going at a value across the industry right now.

There are some others to dig into but I just wanted to cover some of the bigger names for today. It’ll be another couple weeks yet until we get reliable ADP data to see if the rankings will truly reflect where some of these goalie are drafted, but it does look like we could see some value options depending on which site is being used.

Any thoughts on the goalies named above, Dobber fans?

This is more of a general comment but as draft season is really starting to wind up (we’ll be full-bore once training camps start), an important comment on the randomness of hockey:

I love this from Lopez's new piece.https://t.co/gu7XhNNlDI pic.twitter.com/zLV9sC48pX

— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) August 27, 2018

The 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres were one of the worst teams to skate in the NHL this century and they still won 23 of their 82 games, about 28 percent. You won’t see a winless season in the NHL like has happened in the NFL. With the salary cap, the randomness of the game, no more ties, and scouting progression across the world which has created a deeper talent pool, you won’t see single-digit wins like in the NBA. Even horrific NHL teams like that Sabres team a few years ago can still be expected to win one out of every four games.

We like to look for meaning in everything. Quite often, we can find a reason why a player excelled (or didn’t) or a goalie stood on his head (or didn’t). Sometimes though, things are just random. It could be for a single game or it could be for an entire season. Sometimes there just isn’t a meaning. Sometimes, stuff happens.

To kind of continue the theme of “stuff happens,” a good read from Dom Luszczyszyn over at the Athletic on predicting point totals for teams. Or, as the title of his piece says, measuring uncertainty.

He shows in his article the results of different simulations of the season. Because of the inherent randomness of the game itself, there’s one simulation where both the Islanders and Sabres make the playoffs and the Avalanche are in the Cup Final. There’s another where the Islanders win the Metro Division and the Lightning miss the playoffs by 10 points. There are simulations where the Coyotes make the playoffs, others where they’re last in the West.

You get the point.

Just remember that if Dobber, or Laidlaw, or myself, or whomever else’s projections you, the reader, look towards, we’re going to be wrong and we’re going to be wrong a lot. When you’re projecting how many goals, assists, shots, penalty minutes etc. that every skater in the NHL will have, there are going to be some players we are wildly wrong on. It’s just important to learn why something went wrong (maybe there’s a blind spot in a model or ensuing analysis) and try to improve in the future. There are guys I’ve missed on very recently like Victor Hedman, Kyle Connor, and Josh Anderson. There will be players I miss on this year. Such is the nature of the game we play.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-henrik-zetterberg-robert-thomas-john-gibson-and-more-august-28/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Western Conference: Sneaky Playoff Pool Value Picks

Chris Kane makes his DobberHockey Wild West debut…

With the regular season wrapping up this weekend our thoughts of course turn to the playoffs. Many of us, who were less fortunate in our individual leagues (hats off to my opponent for the league title, you had a great team) are looking for a little fantasy redemption come playoff time. Playoff leagues are a bit of a different animal, as while top tier players can still be useful, often times those second tier players who go further in the playoffs and get more games end up being more valuable. We all know who the major players are on each team going into the season, but I wanted to outline a few players that I have my eye on in the Western Conference.

(Note: Vegas, San Jose, Winnipeg, Minnesota, LA, and Nashville stats do not include the final game – a combination of it being a less important game for many of them, and a function of when I had time to write. My apologies for leaving off the last game of the season for your favorite team.)

Vegas: I like many, have to admit to being pretty skeptical of what would happen in Vegas this year. They certainly managed to prove their doubters wrong again and again. We all know that if Vegas continues to succeed it is likely going to be a combination of those who have done it all year (looking at you William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith). The guy I am watching though is Shea Theodore. He has had a bit of an inconsistent season, and it took a while to really find his footing in Vegas. Since March 20 though he has managed 2-7-9 in 9 games, but the thing I am liking even more is the 34 shots (3.78 per game) and the 61% of the power play time over that stretch. The last three games have been even better, averaging over four minutes a game and 73% of the team’s total power play time over that stretch.

San Jose: This one is slightly more obvious as his was one of the biggest names moved at the trade deadline, and he has made a splash with several multi-goal games. In case you have stopped paying attention recently I think it is worth comparing Evander Kane’s Buffalo stats immediately prior to the move and his San Jose stats.

Goals

Assists

Shots

TOI

PPTOI

PP%

Buffalo

18:26

1:48

35.78

San Jose

20:09

3:07

61.28

What a difference usage makes. More than half of that increase in time on ice is on the power play, and clicking with Pavelski certainly doesn’t hurt either. A giant increase in shots, keeps his shooting percentage over this time period pretty reasonable. He doesn’t have much experience in the playoffs, but if San Jose makes it past the first round, I want Kane on my team. Joonas Donskoi has recently returned to the Kane/Pavelski line so watch out for him as well.

Winnipeg: Who to choose on Winnipeg? Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine? Yes, you want those guys, but the guy I am watching right now is Kyle Connor. Like Theodore, the rookie has had ups and downs this year, but I am fully prepared to jump on the upswing heading into the playoffs. He is getting time on the first line with Scheifele and Wheeler, and PP2 time with Little and Ehlers. His recent stat line is looking great with 7-8-15 over his last 12 games with 38 shots to go along with it. Essentially all of the points are coming even strength, and his overall playing time could be better, so keep an eye on that. With Winnipeg firing on all cylinders and hopefully for a few rounds, I am certainly interested in grabbing Connor.

Minnesota: Injuries have a chance to derail Minnesota this playoff season. Having had Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon out has left defensive core pretty thin and the pressure falls to Matt Dumba to pick up the slack. Over his last 10 games Dumba has been up to the task, tallying three goals and seven assists for 10 points. He has also totaled 31 shots over that span, getting top unit power play deployment. Spurgeon is reportedly close to returning which is certainly good news for Minnesota and hopefully won’t negatively impact Dumba too much.

Los Angeles: Just in case you forgot about him because he was injured for a good chunk of this year, Jeff Carter is still here doing his thing – shooting and scoring goals. He has 9-3-12 over his last 12 games with 39 shots. He is also getting top power play time, as is Brown, whose resurgent year appears to be kicking back into gear. He has 8-8-16 and 42 shots, though admittedly 7 shots and 4 goals came in one game against a rather defenseless Minnesota. These guys are obviously a bit more well known, but make sure they aren’t slipping by if you see the Kings getting out of the first round.

Nashville: I am keeping an eye on Craig Smith in Nashville. Given they wrapped up the President’s Trophy earlier on this week, their lines have been a little off as they have rested players. Through all of that Smith is getting prime deployment on the top power play. If there is a chance that Smith can keep that into the playoffs, count me interested. He has had some cold spells but is running with 4-2-6 and 15 shots over his last 5 games. Watch those practice lines, but if there is a chance to grab a top power play forward on the Preds a little later in your playoff pool, I would seriously consider jumping on it.

Anaheim: Anaheim had a strong run into the playoffs, willing their last 5 in a row. Even with that though they seem to have been scoring more by committee, with guys like Getzlaf and Rakell, doing fine, but nothing amazing. The guy I am watching here is Adam Henrique. He has been getting top power play time, and is on a 4 game point streak, with 2-3-5 during the streak . The one downside here is that he has only managed 9 shots during that span, though 7 game in the final two games.

Colorado: A big emotional win over the Blues for their last game clinched the Avs their playoff spot. This is exactly what the NHL is hoping for, consequential games at the end of the season. With Semyon Varlamov and Erik Johnson out it is hard to know what is going to happen on defense and outside of Nathan MacKinnon there isn’t a lot of offense coming out of Colorado right now. With his three point night last night Gabriel Landeskog has five points in his last five games (1-4-5) and 17 shots. He also recorded 10 hits last night if that is of interest in your pool.

West Coast Roundup

Others have already penned fitting words, so I won’t repeat their work here, but hats off to the Sedin’s for a truly remarkable career.

Can we talk for a second about Antti Raanta? Since Feb 15, he has only lost 3 times. Over his last 10 he is 8-2-0, with a GAA of 1.38 and a SV% of .956. Did he help someone win your league? He sure beat me in mine.

Since both Johnson and Varlamov have been out out the Avs have let in 13 goals in their last 4 games (3.25 GA per game). They are going to need to tighten up a bit to have a shot at getting out of the first round.

Thanks for reading, I’ve got some upcoming ideas for the summer columns, but if you have anything in particular you are interested in, leave some thoughts in the comments.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/the-wild-west/western-conference-sneaky-playoff-pool-value-picks/

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flauntpage · 7 years

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The Golden Knights Weren't the Only Losers in the Expansion Draft

Who won? Who lost, besides Vegas? Those are great questions, because I answer them below.

WINNER: Anaheim Ducks

A roster revealed. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

WINNER: Minnesota Wild

LOSER: James Neal

WINNER: New York Rangers

Heck, Lindberg wasn't even the best Swedish forward the Rangers had to offer ('sup, Jesper Fast).

Taking Lindberg isn't as bad as taking Theodore, yet this feels like the biggest favor McPhee did for any GM.

LOSER: All the NHL insiders that tracked all these deals Wednesday

LOSER: Florida Panthers

What. Is. This. Team. Doing?

WINNER: Dallas Stars

WINNER: Marc-André Fleury

He looks very happy to be here. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

LOSERS: Tourists

Years go by. You have forgotten about the NHL. Suddenly, your son comes to you and says the words that send a chill down your spine.

"I want to be a hockey player. Like the Vegas guys."

You drop to your knees and shake your fist at the sky. You took your impressionable child to Vegas and the bad influences got to him.

"Why, Vegas?!? Why?!?!"

Sick uni, though. Photo by Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

It's George McPhee.

You tell him your story. He cries. Guilt washes over McPhee. He grabs you by the shirt, drops to his knees and begs for forgiveness.

"This is my fault," McPhee wails.

You choose to take the high road, not entirely understanding the situation. "No, good sir, this could have happened to anyone."

"I can't help but think things would have gone differently if I made different choices," he says, the dried vomit now caked in his graying beard.

"How could you have known?" you say reassuringly.

"I could have taken Manson instead of Theodore," he says.

You hug McPhee. You pull him close. You look him in the eyes and pull him close again. You whisper into his ear, "This is for my family."

You punch McPhee in the stomach, causing him to vomit once more. "You were right," you scream, "it was all your fault."

You return home to repair your life, one that was destroyed because you wanted to see a free hockey game in Vegas in 2017.

The Golden Knights Weren't the Only Losers in the Expansion Draft published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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flauntpage · 7 years

Text

The Golden Knights Weren't the Only Losers in the Expansion Draft

Who won? Who lost, besides Vegas? Those are great questions, because I answer them below.

WINNER: Anaheim Ducks

A roster revealed. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

WINNER: Minnesota Wild

LOSER: James Neal

WINNER: New York Rangers

Heck, Lindberg wasn't even the best Swedish forward the Rangers had to offer ('sup, Jesper Fast).

Taking Lindberg isn't as bad as taking Theodore, yet this feels like the biggest favor McPhee did for any GM.

LOSER: All the NHL insiders that tracked all these deals Wednesday

LOSER: Florida Panthers

What. Is. This. Team. Doing?

WINNER: Dallas Stars

WINNER: Marc-André Fleury

He looks very happy to be here. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

LOSERS: Tourists

Years go by. You have forgotten about the NHL. Suddenly, your son comes to you and says the words that send a chill down your spine.

"I want to be a hockey player. Like the Vegas guys."

You drop to your knees and shake your fist at the sky. You took your impressionable child to Vegas and the bad influences got to him.

"Why, Vegas?!? Why?!?!"

Sick uni, though. Photo by Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

It's George McPhee.

You tell him your story. He cries. Guilt washes over McPhee. He grabs you by the shirt, drops to his knees and begs for forgiveness.

"This is my fault," McPhee wails.

You choose to take the high road, not entirely understanding the situation. "No, good sir, this could have happened to anyone."

"I can't help but think things would have gone differently if I made different choices," he says, the dried vomit now caked in his graying beard.

"How could you have known?" you say reassuringly.

"I could have taken Manson instead of Theodore," he says.

You hug McPhee. You pull him close. You look him in the eyes and pull him close again. You whisper into his ear, "This is for my family."

You punch McPhee in the stomach, causing him to vomit once more. "You were right," you scream, "it was all your fault."

You return home to repair your life, one that was destroyed because you wanted to see a free hockey game in Vegas in 2017.

The Golden Knights Weren't the Only Losers in the Expansion Draft published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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junker-town · 7 years

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2017 NHL expansion draft: Breaking down the Golden Knights’ most surprising choices

Vegas made some puzzling decisions during the expansion draft on Wednesday.

There’s a lot to like about what the Vegas Golden Knights did during the expansion draft on Wednesday. They now have three draft picks in the top 15 overall this year, a pair of top prospects in Alex Tuch and Shea Theodore, and a roster that may not scream contender, but signals this team might not be a total mess out of the gate.

So it’s fair to say that GM George McPhee and his staff set up the Golden Knights for a lot of potential success in the coming years. The entry draft this weekend will presumably make it even clearer what Vegas is trying to do, but for now, you get the sense that at the very least, McPhee has a plan to build a winner in the desert.

That plan will not be without some head-scratching decisions, however. This is the NHL, after all, where there seems to be a regular divide at times between general managers and the public opinion on certain players. So it should be no surprise that the Golden Knights would make decisions that might seem questionable at first glance.

McPhee will have the chance to prove us all wrong in the end, and if he can hit on some of his high draft picks this year, there’s a good chance he’s put his team on the road to success. But before we can start really digging into what the future holds for the Golden Knights, let’s look at some of their most surprising expansion draft selections.

Tomas Nosek, Red Wings

More than anything, this tells you how low the Golden Knights must’ve been on the Red Wings’ other players. Center Riley Sheahan, defenseman Xavier Ouellet, and goaltender Petr Mrazek were all on their unprotected list for the expansion draft.

Instead, Vegas went with Nosek, an undrafted 24-year-old who spent the past three seasons in the AHL. He put up good numbers in 2016-17 with the Grand Rapids Griffins, recording 41 points in 51 games, but you have to be wondering what spurred the Golden Knights to avoid three similarly aged players who already have NHL experience.

Mrazek in particular is a surprise situation. The Red Wings were expected to protect him but went with veteran Jimmy Howard instead. Then came reports that the decision was due to issues between Mrazek and management. He’s talented, but you have to wonder if that stuff scared away Vegas.

Alexei Emelin, Canadiens

When word was going around that Vegas was taking Emelin, the speculation was that it must be getting an asset from Montreal not to take Brandon Davidson or Charles Hudon. Nope, it turns out that the Golden Knights straight up wanted Emelin, who has a $4.1 million cap hit for one more season.

That’s surprising because Emelin isn’t necessarily a $4.1 million player given the poor season he just had. The Canadiens may end up viewing this move as addition by subtraction, while the Golden Knights added a veteran who is expensive, but not all that great.

This feels like the kind of move that could’ve came with a pick attached. Otherwise, you’d think the younger, cheaper Davidson would be a more appealing option.

Oscar Lindberg, Rangers

Lindberg is a fine young player, but the Rangers left Antti Raanta and Michael Grabner available. The former is a potential starting goalie, the latter is coming off a 27-goal season. Both are signed to affordable deals through next season. But the Rangers went with Lindberg, who still needs to be signed as a restricted free agent, without getting anything else in return. That’s a little surprising.

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Flyers

Philadelphia managed to protect its best players without issue, so the prime candidates for Vegas seemed like Michael Raffl, Dale Weise, Michal Neuvirth, or possibly free agent Jordan Weal. They ended up going with Bellemare, a physical forward who just put up eight points over 82 games in 2016-17.

It seems obvious that Bellemare was chosen to make sure the Golden Knights had an edge on the ice. He’ll bring that, and he’s also a versatile forward who can play winger but also take faceoffs. Over the past three years, he’s been a serviceable 48 percent in that area.

Still, Bellemare is the kind of player that’s typically not that difficult to replace, so it’s a little surprising Vegas went with him. Then again, he’s cheaper than Raffl, Weise, or Neuvirth, so the salary cap likely figured in here to some degree.

Luca Sbisa, Canucks

The alternative was probably picking an RFA then declining to qualify him, so I guess you can see where this one came from.

Did they get enough from Anaheim and Minnesota?

The best players on offer for Vegas were arguably Anaheim’s Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson and Minnesota’s Eric Staal, Mathew Dumba, and Marco Scandella. Somehow, the Golden Knights managed to come away with none of them thanks to a pair of side deals.

In the end, Vegas got Clayton Stoner, Erik Haula, Alex Tuch, and Shea Theodore from those teams instead of, say, Manson and Dumba. Is that a win for the Golden Knights? You would need to be really high on Haula, Tuch, and Theodore because Manson and Dumba would be top-four defensemen in Vegas for the next 5-10 years.

Maybe these guys never would’ve been unprotected if not for the side deals, but the Golden Knights went with the top prospects over good, already-established defensemen. It’s fair to wonder whether they ultimately got enough to pass on such valuable pieces.

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junker-town · 8 years

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NHL playoff race report: Opportunities await Penguins and Islanders this week

Our weekly look at the Eastern Conference playoff stretch.

Welcome to the post-trade deadline NHL world! It’s a hellish landscape full of streaky teams battling each other for a handful of playoff spots. It’s a Great Time To Be Alive™.

So each Monday we’ll hit the reset button, take a step back, and look at how the playoff race in each conference has changed. Who’s up. Who’s down. What changed since the previous week. What games teams need to take care of this week. You get the idea.

Onward!

Playoff-Primed

Photo by Codie McLachlan/Getty Images

Pittsburgh Penguins (43-16-8, 94 points)

Holds second in Metropolitan by two points, 15 games left (11 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Taking advantage of the Capitals’ plummet. Pittsburgh extended their win streak to five games last week. But they finish their road trip against the Flames on Monday, the NHL’s hottest team.

Met goal for last week? No. Kris Letang remains out with an undisclosed injury.

Goal for this week: Keep the streak alive and pass the Capitals in the standings.

Washington Capitals (44-17-7, 95 points)

Leads Eastern Conference & Metropolitan by one point, 14 games left (11 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Dropping points out of nowhere. Washington has lost four straight games and just lost their new toy in a suspension. A second-straight Presidents’ Trophy isn’t the foregone conclusion it was a week ago.

Met goal for last week? Nope and nope. Braden Holtby is still winless against the Stars (so strange) and Kevin Shattenkirk only had one power play point in three games before his suspension.

Goal for this week: Stop the slide, but that won’t be easy. The Wild, Predators and Lightning are all on tap this week. Washington chose a bad time to start slumping.

Columbus Blue Jackets (43-18-6, 92 points)

Holds third in Metropolitan by two points, 15 games left (11 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Columbus lost ground to the Penguins last week after an odd rout at the hands of the Sabres over the weekend.

Met goal for last week? Nope. Taking advantage of an easy schedule does not include losing to Buffalo. The Jackets should’ve swept the week.

Goal for this week: Bounce back with statement games against tougher competition. That means sticking to their identity: score first in at least three of the four games.

Montreal Canadiens (39-22-8, 86 points)

Leads Atlantic Division by two points, 13 games left (8 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: That division lead is looking precarious.

Met goal for last week? Eh. If the goal was to “withstand” the road trip, then they did so ... but that 5-0 loss in Calgary was briefly demoralizing.

Goal for this week: Sweep the Senators in a critical home-and-home weekend series. Their points lead over Ottawa is the difference between facing the Rangers in the first round or the Bruins in an emotionally-charged trap series.

Ottawa Senators (39-22-6, 84 points)

Holds second place in Atlantic Division by six points, 15 games left (12 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: That six-point cushion over Boston is delicious. Both teams enjoyed a successful week (Ottawa extended its winning streak to six games) but only the Senators earned those extra two points.

Met goal for last week? Yes. See above.

Goal for this week: End the week as healthy as they began it. Which isn’t that healthy, mind you: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan are all dealing with issues despite Ottawa’s recent success.

Boston Bruins (36-26-6, 78 points)

Holds third place in Atlantic Division by two points, 14 games left (12 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: As impressive as those wins over Detroit and Philadelphia were, the loss last Monday in Ottawa stung.

Met goal for last week? No. Boston’s 4-2 loss in Ottawa kept them from earning every possible point last week.

Goal for this week: Take a month-worth of momentum on one of the more dreaded road trips in hockey: the Western Canada road swing.

New York Rangers (44-23-2, 90 points)

Holds first wild card by 14 points, 13 games left (12 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: A disappointing loss to the Hurricanes aside, the Rangers are doing well. Though the injury to Henrik Lundqvist could prove costly if Antti Raanta stumbles.

Met goal for last week? Yes. For the most part. New York stopped bleeding goals, holding opponents to one goal per game on average in their three wins.

Goal for this week: Let Antti Raanta prove he’s one of the best backups in the game.

Have a shot

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

New York Islanders (32-24-11, 75 points)

Trailing wild card by one point, 15 games left (8 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Breathing down Toronto’s neck. Interim head coach Doug Weight has infused this team with confidence at the right time, and the Islanders finished up one of their longest road trips of the season with two wins in Western Canada.

Met goal for last week? Yes. Thomas Greiss was the star in the Isles’ 4-1 win in Edmonton and helped stave off the Canucks in a 4-3 overtime win two nights later.

Goal for this week: Keep the pressure up on the Leafs during an easy week against the Hurricanes (twice) and Jets.

Toronto Maple Leafs (31-22-14, 76 points)

Holds wild card by one point, 15 games left (11 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: That was a week the Leafs desperately needed. Toronto ended a five-game slide with three straight wins.

Met goal for last week? Yes. Those wins over Detroit, Philadelphia and Carolina held off the charging Islanders at least for another week. But now it gets tough.

Goal for this week: Keep that momentum alive during a truly tough week: a trip to Florida and Tampa Bay finishes with a home date with the red-hot Blackhawks on Saturday. Toronto needs to aim for at least three points out of six.

In trouble

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Lightning (32-26-9, 73 points)

Trailing wild card by three points, 15 games left (10 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Broken. The playoffs are still within reach, but injuries are back in Tampa Bay.

Met goal for last week? No. We told them to stay healthy. Then Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov and Cedric Paquette all suffered knee injuries in one game. Whoops.

Goal for this week: Hope the kids can keep producing. They still won that injury-plagued game against the Wild and rookie Yan Gourde scored to help them beat the Panthers. If Tampa Bay can keep this up, they might get Steven Stamkos back with the playoffs still in play.

Florida Panthers (29-27-11, 69 points)

Trailing wild card by seven points, 15 games left (11 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Whatever hope gained by Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau’s return has evaporated after losing eight of nine games and going winless last week.

Met goal for last week? No. Florida did not “get back into that winning groove.” It’s more like a losing waddle.

Goal for this week: Salvage. Salvage. Salvage. This is a difficult week with the Leafs, Blue Jackets, Rangers and Penguins on deck. Florida must get points in at least three of four to stay relevant.

Philadelphia Flyers (31-28-8, 70 points)

Trailing wild card by six points, 15 games left (9 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Philly wasted its opportunity after demolishing the Sabres on Tuesday. The Flyers followed that up with losses in Toronto and Boston, giving them a net loss in points for the week.

Met goal for last week? No. Aside from that 6-3 win in Buffalo, the Flyers were outscored 6-3 in their next two games. Michal Neuvirth and Steve Mason weren’t perfect, but they weren’t aided much, either.

Goal for this week: Watch the tape of that Sabres win religiously and put the lessons to use against the Blue Jackets and Penguins.

Pretty much done

Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Carolina Hurricanes (27-27-11, 65 points)

Trailing wild card by 11 points, 17 games left (13 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Sandwiched in between disappointing losses to Toronto and Colorado was an impressive win over the Rangers. Valentine Zykov also enjoyed a successful NHL debut with a goal in his first game.

Met goal for last week? No. We asked them to feast on struggling teams. They lost to the Avs and Leafs, so ...

Goal for this week: Ask more of the youngsters and receive it. Zykov will get more playing time, and Lucas Wallmark just got called up over the weekend. This is the chance for both to prove they’re ready for the show next season.

Buffalo Sabres (28-29-12, 68 points)

Trailing wild card by eight points, 13 games left (12 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: A miserable week takes Buffalo out of the “in trouble” category and into this done-zo one. Their win on Saturday ended a four-game slide that likely ended their playoff hopes.

Met goal for last week? No. Dropped points in two of three games instead of all three like we asked. Is it that hard? To follow the rules?

Goal for this week: Get a point on a brutal road trip across California.

Absolutely done

Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Detroit Red Wings (26-30-11, 63 points)

Trailing wild card by 13 points, 15 games left (8 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Well, they’re still out of the race by a good margin. But they proved they can still play spoiler against playoff teams in their own conference.

Met goal for last week? Nope. Petr Mrazek gave up ten goals in three games. So much for that.

Goal for this week: Same as last week, I suppose. If Mrazek can’t turn it around against the two worst teams in the league, Detroit should be worried.

New Jersey Devils (25-31-12, 62 points)

Trailing wild card by 14 points, 14 games left (10 vs. quality teams)

Outlook: Ten straight losses. Carving a path up the lottery rankings.

Met goal for last week? No. They did not stop the bleeding. And now they are about to die.

Goal for this week: Catch up on The Expanse and Legion. Oh, wait, you meant New Jersey’s goal. I don’t know. Go get some pizza.

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