#Team it was def joel who built the statues

[antichrists-plus1]

Grians immediate reaction to seeing his statue

[footyplusau]

Draftstars round five cheat sheet

IT HAS been a quick turnover from round four to five, so in case you haven’t kept track of all the happenings, we’re here to help. 

Here is AFL.com.au‘s Draftstars cheat sheet for the weekend, with all the best players you must consider for your daily fantasy success. For more information visit draftstars.com.au.

Port Adelaide v Carlton, Adelaide Oval, Friday night

It wasn’t a great round of Draftstars scoring for Port Adelaide last week in its loss to Greater Western Sydney, with Brad Ebert (MID, $13,700) leading with 96 points. Jasper Pittard (DEF, $12,650) was next with 89 points – his average for the year –  while Ollie Wines (MID, $15,400) lowered his colours for the first time of the year with 82 points. 

Wines is still worth your money given his average of 108 points a game so far in 2017, and Dan Houston (FWD, $8000) continues to impress, showing he can pick up disposals comfortably. He has found a role in Port’s defence, so his job security appears strong. 

Port Adelaide will be intent on stopping Marc Murphy (MID, $16,400), but given the form the Carlton skipper is in, it seems a hard task. Murphy is the man you must try to fit into your Draftstars line-up. He’s the competition’s leading scorer with an average of 133 points in the opening four rounds. 

Sam Docherty (DEF, $15,150) doesn’t come cheap, but has scored 90 or more every week and is a great pick for your defence, while first-gamer Zac Fisher (MID, $7600) impressed last week with 67 points on debut. Coaches will be tempted to throw him in as a last-picked midfielder given his lowly price. 

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions, Etihad Stadium, Saturday

With an average of 94 points a game, Lachie Hunter (MID, $15,350) rarely has a quiet day at the office. But the premiership midfielder only gathered 69 points in last week’s win over North Melbourne – a low total for a player of his quality. Watch for a huge game against the Lions on Saturday.

Liam Picken (MID, $13,500) has become one of the most popular players in the competition, but he’s still a relatively unique Draftstars choice. He scored 100 last round and has averaged 84 for the year, so is worth thinking about in your midfield at a slightly lower cost. In his 300th game, Bob Murphy (DEF, $12,400) will be a sentimental choice for many, and comes in at reasonable value with a solid average so far this season. 

Tom Rockliff (MID, $17,500) and Dayne Zorko (MID, $16,250) top the list of Brisbane players you have to consider. The pair sit inside the top seven scorers in the competition so far this season, so you can’t lose by choosing them. 

If you’re looking for a Lion who might not be in everyone else’s thoughts, then Mitch Robinson (FWD/MID, $13,300) could be your man after a terrific 29-disposal, one-goal and 122-point game against Richmond last week. His dual-position status offers some versatility too. 

Gold Coast v Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, Saturday

Hands up those who doubted Gary Ablett (MID, $15,450)? The superstar midfielder has hit back from a slow start to the season with back-to-back centuries in the Suns’ consecutive wins. His average is now a more-than-acceptable 108 points. 

If you’re looking for a cheaper Suns midfield option, then Jarryd Lyons (FWD/MID, $13,850) could be it. The ex-Adelaide midfielder is backing up his career-best season in 2016 with a strong start at the Suns and is averaging 91.5. Brandon Matera (FWD, $14,200) is also red-hot, having picked up 245 points in his first two games of the season. He looks the real deal this year. 

Adelaide star Rory Sloane (MID, $16,350) ranks fourth in the AFL for Draftstars points so must get a look, while Adelaide’s group of forwards – Taylor Walker (FWD, $12,350), Eddie Betts (FWD, $12,450) and Tom Lynch (FWD, $13,700) – pose a big threat to the Suns if they get a run on.

Adelaide’s list of Draftstars options is deep. Rory Atkins (MID, $11,950) and Matt Crouch (MID, $14,350) are a peg or two down from the aforementioned but still can score, while Charlie Cameron (FWD, $10,900) has come into his own this season with more midfield time. His average of 87 points is appealing.

Sydney v Greater Western Sydney, SCG, Saturday night

Few would have tipped Jake Lloyd (MID, $13,850) to be the Swans’ leading point scorer so far this season. But then again, few would have thought Sydney would be winless, too. Lloyd is a nice and relatively unique choice with an average of 104 points.

In some cases it might be best to steer clear of the best Swans until they hit top form again. Luke Parker (MID, $15,900) and Dan Hannebery (MID, $15,600) have had slow starts to their respective campaigns, although Josh Kennedy’s (MID, $16,000) form has stood up. An emerging, cheaper option could be George Hewett (MID, $9650), who picked up the slack with 86 points last week against West Coast. 

The tip from this game: go big on your Giants. Josh Kelly (MID, $14,350) has pieced consecutive best-on-ground games together and is averaging 110. He’s a premium price but an A-Grade player. Dylan Shiel (MID, $14,850) gathered 112 points last week, and Toby Greene (FWD/MID, $13,850) consistently hits a score above 85, which is more than solid for a forward pick.

We also saw Shane Mumford (RK, $13,100) reach triple figures for the first time, and he might go well against a weakened Swans ruck department. Be wary of choosing Jonathon Patton (FWD, $9800) on the back of his six-goal haul last week against the Power. His previous effort, in round one, was just 46 points and he’s not generally been a big Draftstars scorer in the past. 

Fremantle v North Melbourne, Domain Stadium, Saturday night

Former Giant Cam McCarthy (FWD, $7600) produced his best game so far for the Dockers in their win over Melbourne last week, kicking two goals from 20 disposals and bringing in 96 Draftstars points. Can he replicate it against North? Perhaps. He’s cheap enough to take a gamble on.

There’s less of a gamble in choosing Lachie Neale (MID, $16,250), David Mundy (MID, $14,250) or Nat Fyfe (MID, $15,500). Neale led the way with 119 points last week, working brilliantly with Aaron Sandilands (RK, $12,000), who scored 95 in the best game of his year as well. Lachie Weller’s (MID, $10,100) 83-point effort was also the best of his season. 

It’s been an iffy start to the year for Todd Goldstein (RK, $14,350), once a Draftstars lock in the ruck, but he hit form with 112 points last week. Ben Cunnington (MID, $12,550) was also superb through the midfield, picking up 111 points to lift his season average to 95 points. 

For a lower-profile Kangaroos option, Ben Brown (FWD, $10,450) scored 90 points last week and has averaged 72 across the season. He won’t be the type to be your line-up’s match-winner, but given you need to fill nine spots in your ‘salary’ format with a cap of $100,000, Brown could be reasonable value. 

St Kilda v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, Sunday

We hope you listened when we said last week that Dylan Roberton (DEF, $11,600) was flying, because his 134-point score against Collingwood suggests he’s not slowing down. 

The Saints loaded up against the Pies, but among the familiar faces was Jack Billings (FWD, $12,500), who picked up 119 points – well above his season average of 75. If he had have kicked straight in front of goal it would have helped him to be his team’s best scorer. Jack Newnes (MID, $13,700) also collected 123 points, and is a rare pick.

Step aside ‘Dangerwood’, because it was another Geelong midfield duo who took the limelight last week for the Cats. Steven Motlop (FWD/MID, $12,650) found 125 points and Mitch Duncan (MID, $14,850) had 113, making for the Cats to be very hard to stop. Both are far less popular with Draftstars coaches than Patrick Dangerfield (MID, $17,350) and Joel Selwood (MID, $15,750), so could give your team an advantage if they continue their form. 

Tom Hawkins’ (FWD, $11,950) season has flown under the radar, but he is the Cats’ fourth-leading points-scorer for the season and has booted 16 goals. He’s back to his best and should be in your thoughts as a forward given his 90-point average.

Hawthorn v West Coast, MCG, Sunday

For all the talk about Hawthorn’s radical list management, its leading scorer so far this season is recruit Tom Mitchell (MID, $16,300), so that is at least one big tick. He’s averaging 123 points a game and is a genuine ball magnet. 

There hasn’t been a lot else to love about the Hawks. Isaac Smith (MID, $13,900) is the only other Hawk to average more than 90, although former Crow Ricky Henderson (MID/DEF, $12,500) has been a solid choice in defender with an average of 85.

There’s plenty to like for the Eagles. Luke Shuey (MID, $15,450) is red-hot, Andrew Gaff (MID, $14,850) continues at a brilliant pace, and Elliot Yeo (FWD/MID, $13,150) is back to his best form. All are averaging more than 100 so far this season and are almost guaranteed to bring in big scores. But can they turn it on at the ‘G, where the Eagles have struggled? 

Richmond v Melbourne, MCG, Monday night

It was an unusual statistical game from the Tigers last week, with only Shaun Grigg (MID, $14,550) posting a triple-figure score. That’s not rare for him given his 95-point average, but it came after a quieter couple of rounds before. 

Dustin Martin (FWD/MID, $16,100) was quiet with just 63 points, as was captain Trent Cotchin (MID, $14,750) with only 70 against the Lions. Still, the Tigers did it easy and it’s got us looking at some of their next-tier Draftstars players. Jason Castagna (DEF, $8650) has been excellent so far this season and pulled in 92 points last week playing as an attacking, quick half-forward. He’s reasonable value and in good form off the back of 98 the previous week. 

It was good to see Dom Tyson (MID, $14,600) back to his best last week against Fremantle for the Dees. His pre-season was hindered by injury but he knocked out 116 points last week and his average has built to 107. Other Melbourne midfielders, like Clayton Oliver (MID, $13,900) and Jack Viney (MID, $15,000), are far more regular selections, but Tyson could be a unique pick.

Alex Neal-Bullen (FWD/MID, $11,750) is in the middle of a purple patch, ranked inside the top 40 players in the competition, and better yet you can pick him as a forward or midfielder. Tomas Bugg (DEF, $11,850) might also be called upon in a tagging role and gathered 78 points last week.

Essendon v Collingwood, MCG, Tuesday

Two Bombers hit better Draftstars form in last week’s loss to Adelaide. David Zaharakis (MID, $14,150) and Travis Colyer (FWD, $10,500) both registered season-best scores, with 111 and 124 points respectively. So far their form has been patchy so pick with caution, but they appear on the way up. 

Zach Merrett (MID, $17,500) continued his reliable form with a team-high 134 points and he’s worth every dollar, while Brendon Goddard’s (MID, $15,350) season has been underrated. Formerly a Draftstars mainstay, Goddard isn’t as popular any more, but is averaging 114 points this year. 

The Pies’ midfield has tormented Essendon in recent Anzac Day clashes, so choosing one or more of them wouldn’t be your worst Draftstars decision. Steele Sidebottom (MID, $15,650) is on fire, and Scott Pendlebury (MID, $16,000) has also lit up the big stage.

Jeremy Howe (FWD/DEF, $12,750) has been perhaps one of the best Collingwood players this season and is in form after 108 points last week, while Brodie Grundy (RK, $15,550) shapes as a big threat to the Bombers. Grundy is the best scoring ruckman in the competition with an average of 118. He would be a smart choice to bring home your Draftstars team with a big Tuesday afternoon.

The post Draftstars round five cheat sheet appeared first on Footy Plus.

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[junker-town]

Can Kent State football save Paul Haynes’ job in 2017? Ehhhhhhhh ...

Five years after one glorious season, the Golden Flashes are still searching.

I was about 50 words into the intro for this piece, marveling at Kent State’s near bid into a BCS bowl five years ago, until I realized I had already written the same intro last year.

It remains one of the more incredible outlier moments in football's recent history: In 2012, Kent State was an overtime away. The winner of the MAC Championship between 11-1 NIU and Kent teams was a de facto play-in.

Darrell Hazell, only in his second year, had inherited a team that just hadn't been able to get over the hump. The Golden Flashes finished 5-7 in each of Doug Martin's last two years and hit five wins again in Hazell's debut. But now that the offense truly had a pulse, the program took a huge step forward.

NIU survived in overtime; the Huskies advanced to the Orange Bowl, where they trailed Florida State by just seven heading into the fourth quarter but faded and lost, 31-10. Kent State lost Hazell to Purdue and lost the GoDaddy.com Bowl to Arkansas State.

There was magic, and Kent State has been trying to recapture it ever since.

The margins in coaching are so small that sometimes you can’t even see them. Successful and unsuccessful coaches do so many of the same things that sometimes it’s hard to know why something didn’t work. And when something does work, it’s hard to know why it stops a month later.

Over the last six years — two at Kent State and four at Purdue — Hazell’s record is 25-43. He began 6-8, ripped off 10 consecutive wins, then went 9-35. He didn’t suddenly become a worse coach the moment that win streak ended.

Similarly, Kent State wasn’t fundamentally any different during its magical 2012 than it was before or after. But in the 33 seasons before that fleeting run, the Flashes averaged 2.9 wins per year. In the four since, they’ve averaged three.

The school hired Hazell because of his TresselBall experience; the 25-year (at the time) veteran had spent the seven previous years at Ohio State as Jim Tressel’s receivers coach. His ball-control tendencies translated well, so when Hazell took the Purdue job, Kent attempted to follow the same script, replacing him with ... a 20-year veteran who had spent seven seasons at Ohio State.

Hazell couldn’t replicate his magic at Purdue, and Haynes hasn’t come anywhere close to Hazell’s brief success.

Haynes is a Kent State graduate, and aside from one year with the Jacksonville Jaguars and one year at Arkansas, his entire career has taken place within the MAC/Big Ten footprint. He appeared custom-built to bring success to Kent.

Haynes’ contract runs through 2017, and ... that appears to be the reason he still has a job. After a Football Scoop report that Haynes and Kent State were “expected to part ways” following another three-win season, athletic director Joel Nielsen responded with this:

A report made earlier today was erroneous and irresponsible. Paul Haynes is our head football coach. #GoFlashes

— Joel Nielsen (@KSUFlashesAD) December 5, 2016

And that was that. Haynes gets a fifth year.

Aside from a 10-game blip, Kent State has been one of the steadiest programs in the country, for all the wrong reasons.

Is there anything Haynes can do to change this trajectory? The answer basically comes down to whether there’s anything he can do about the offense. Haynes’ defenses have been generally solid. His offenses, generally miserable.

2016 in review

2016 Kent State statistical profile.

Technically, the Kent State offense improved. After fielding in 2015 what was, per S&P+, the nation’s second-worst offense of the last 12 seasons (the only team with a worse rating since 2005: 2006’s 0-12 FIU), the Golden Flashes improved to merely bad on offense.

But they were creatively bad, at least.

Thanks to injury and ineffectiveness, four quarterbacks threw at least 15 passes each, and a fifth — QB-turned-WR Colin Reardon — threw three.

Nick Holley ended up with 868 passing yards, 1,038 rushing yards (omitting sacks), and 135 receiving yards, one of the strangest stat lines you’ll ever see. He spent the first month as a skill position guy, rushing 13 times and catching 13 passes. Thanks to injury, he moved to quarterback in Week 5 and won MAC East player of the week honors, rushing for 117 and throwing for 285 against Akron.

True freshman walk-on running back Justin Rankin led the team ... in receptions.

Creativity counts for something, and Kent proved it was willing to get weird. But considering the number of signal callers (and the fact that one of them, Holley, was a junior who hadn’t played quarterback since high school), it comes as no surprise to learn the Golden Flashes had the worst passing game in the country. Consequently, that meant brief excitement when Holley took over, then a return to normalcy.

First 4 games (1-3) — Avg. score: Opp 32, Kent 19 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 4.8, Kent 4.1 | Avg, percentile performance: 26%

Next 2 games (1-1) — Avg. score: Kent 36, Opp 26 | Avg. yards per play: Kent 6.3, Opp 5.5 | Avg, percentile performance: 44%

Last 6 games (1-5) — Avg. score: Opp 28, Kent 17 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.4, Kent 4.8 | Avg, percentile performance: 30%

The typically solid defense held Penn State and Alabama to a respectable 5.7 yards per play in September but faltered a bit in MAC play. Still, the Flashes allowed 24 or fewer points in five of nine games against non-top-40 teams. That should be enough to win more than three games.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Coaching is like bailing sand sometimes — you address one issue, and another slips through your fingers. In last year’s Kent State preview, I noted that the Flashes’ biggest problem in 2015 may have been run efficiency, and that to improve from worst-in-FBS status, “it's clear that Kent will have to actually be able to run a little bit.”

Kent State could! Don Treadwell’s offense improved from 120th to 81st in Rushing S&P+. In theory, that helped to create far more third-and-manageable situations.

Unfortunately, either freshmen or converted running backs were throwing, and the Flashes fell from 124th to 128th, dead last, in FBS passing. Kent quarterbacks completed just 50 percent of their passes (despite frequently dumping the ball to running backs out of the backfield, no less) and topped a 111 passer rating just twice against FBS defenses. The result: an offense that was still drastically inefficient, and not in an “all-or-nothing” way.

The first step toward addressing Kent’s new biggest problem: Get everyone healthy. Justin Agner won the starting quarterback job as a true freshman and got hurt in the season opener against Penn State. Redshirt freshman Mylik Mitchell took over, then broke his wrist against Alabama. And when Holley got hurt and missed the season finale, it was George Bollas’ turn.

Be it with Holley, Mitchell, Agner, Bollas, or an incoming freshman like three-star Dustin Crum, continuity would mean a ton. It’s hard for QB-to-WR rapport to build if the QB is changing every week.

Fix your quarterback issues definitively, and you can move to the next issue: Does Kent have any receivers? Leading wideout Ernest Calhoun and tight end Brice Fackler are gone, leaving slot man Raekwon James and a set of returning backup options who were less than impressive last year. Starting X receiver Johnny Woods caught just six of 23 passes for 48 yards — an almost inconceivable 2.1 yards per target — and sophomores Kavious Price, Mike Carrigan, and Trey Harrell combined for 42 targets, 23 catches, and 198 yards. Be it because of the quarterbacks or receivers, those numbers are gross. No wonder so many passes were directed at the running backs.

The passing game might not have to be good to free up space for an interesting run game. Holley is a unique weapon who averaged 5.7 yards per non-sack carry, and Mitchell was averaging a decent 4.8 per carry pre-injury. Meanwhile, three sophomores (Rankin, Will Matthews, part-time running back Kavious Price) flashed serious explosiveness, albeit through freshman-level efficiency.

Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Rankin

Treadwell is throwing everything he can think of against the wall to see what sticks. He has a ton of mighty-mite guys — Rankin and James are 5’9, Matthews is 5’7, Price is 5’6, and Holley is a towering 5’10 — and tries to get them the ball in different areas of the field. There’s enough experience and versatility here to make things interesting, but you need your quarterback to actually deliver a ball downfield and a receiver to actually catch it.

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Raekwon James (24) and George Bollas (2)

Defense

Kent State’s offense improved enough in 2016 to make opposing offenses work a little bit harder. Opponents had been able to stay rather vanilla in 2015, and a talented Kent State defense was able to take advantage. The Golden Flashes ranked 19th in Def. S&P+, allowing just 4.9 yards per play and giving up more than 6 per play just three times.

Those numbers slipped a bit, but only so much. Kent still allowed only 5.2 yards per play but fell to 65th in Def. S&P+. As with 2015, the pass defense was aggressive and exciting, but run defense remained an issue.

So was fatigue; after allowing 5 yards per play over 69.8 snaps per game through nine contests, those averages rose to 5.7 and 87, respectively, and the Flashes allowed at least 31 points in each of those games. A 42-7 loss to 4-8 Bowling Green was humbling, and it isn’t a coincidence that Kent played these three games without star safety Nate Holley.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Juantez McRae

At first glance, the balance could shift. Coordinator Ben Needham’s defense returns three of its top four tackles (including senior Jon Cunningham) and a pair of seasoned linebackers in Jim Jones and James Alexander. In theory, the run defense will either hold steady or improve.

The pass defense might have some issues. Star pass rusher Terence Waugh is gone, as are three of the top four safeties (including Holley). Juantez McRae is the only returning safety who recorded more than five tackles last year, and not a single returning defender recorded more than one sack. If you’re making fewer big plays in the backfield and suffering a few more glitches in the back, that is an issue.

There is depth at cornerback, at least. Last year’s top four (Jerrell Foster, Jamal Parker, Demetrius Monday, Darryl Marshall) are all back after combining for six interceptions and 16 breakups (much of which came from Foster).

Still, the edge guys face the burden of proof. End Theo Eboigbe is the default leader at end after recording five tackles for loss, but sophomore end Alex Hoag or a freshman linebacker might need to deliver quickly. The same goes for former three-star recruits like sophomore Akeam Peters, junior Erik Simpson, sophomore Carlos Pickett, or freshman Elvis Hines at safety. The offense might be improving just in time for the defense to further regress.

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Jon Cunningham (90)

Special Teams

Kent State was really only bad at one aspect of special teams — Shane Hynes’ kickoffs almost never reached the end zone, and the coverage unit was only decent, not great. That resulted in a kickoff efficiency ranking of 115th. Everything else was in the 60s to 80s range, neither strength nor weakness.

Everybody’s back, which is nice, but considering how many tiny speedsters Kent State has, uncovering a couple who can rip off some nice returns would help immensely. Having a mostly neutral special teams unit might be okay when you’re otherwise strong, but Kent could use all the help it can get.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep at Clemson 6 -40.4 1% 9-Sep Howard NR 30.2 96% 16-Sep at Marshall 101 -8.8 31% 23-Sep at Louisville 14 -36.2 2% 30-Sep Buffalo 128 7.0 66% 7-Oct at Northern Illinois 86 -11.7 25% 14-Oct Miami (Ohio) 88 -6.4 35% 21-Oct at Ohio 103 -7.7 33% 31-Oct Bowling Green 95 -4.7 39% 8-Nov at Western Michigan 74 -16.0 18% 14-Nov Central Michigan 97 -4.3 40% 21-Nov at Akron 122 -2.6 44%

Projected S&P+ Rk 123 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 125 / 91 Projected wins 4.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -12.1 (113) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 128 / 125 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 11 / 4.3 2016 TO Luck/Game +2.8 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 54% (62%, 47%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 4.1 (-1.1)

The bad news, from an S&P+ (or eyeballs) perspective, is that there’s no reason to believe Kent State will be dramatically better. The cynical/obvious suspicion is that the school kept Haynes around so it didn’t have to pay for a buyout. But you’d like to think there’s still a chance Haynes can move the ball forward.

The good news is that the schedule offers opportunities. (So did last year’s.) If the Golden Flashes can exceed their projections by just a little, the fact that they face five teams projected 101st or worse (not to mention four more between 86th and 97th) could pay off.

There’s not much room for error, though. A quarterback has to both step forward and remain on the damn field. A couple of receivers have to emerge as downfield threats. The run defense has to improve enough to offset regression in pass defense. If those things happen — and, one by one, none is unrealistic — then maybe there’s a path forward for Haynes at his alma mater.

Team preview stats

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