Timothy Snyder at Thinking About...:
Ukrainians have been asking me what it means for their country that President Joe Biden has decided to withdraw his candidacy and that Vice-President Kamala Harris is now the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.
I think that it only means good things.
The Biden administration now has more time for Ukraine. Until last Sunday, Joe Biden had two jobs: president and candidate for president. Now he has only one job: to be president. This means more time for policy, including foreign policy. The people on his team who work on Ukraine will find it easier to get his attention. Aside from that: President Biden will now be thinking about his legacy. He knows that whatever policies he wants attached to his name must be formulated and implemented in the next six months.
Though it is impossible to be sure, I would guess that Ukraine will likely as central to a Harris presidency than it was to the Biden presidency. On a number of foreign policy issues, including Ukraine, the Biden administration began from traditional assumptions that were outdated, and then worked quickly to catch up. I do not think that this will be the case for Harris, in part because the Biden administration has caught up. The vice-president’s foreign policy team might well be more decisive on Ukraine than the Biden team. Vice-President Harris made a point of traveling to Geneva for Ukraine’s peace summit when it became clear that President Biden would not attend. In fairness, we should remember that President Biden visited Kyiv itself!
All of that, though, is far less important than the main issue, which is beating Donald Trump.
[...]
In Ukrainian terms, Trump is a Yanukovych figure, a wannabe oligarch backed by actual oligarchs and the Kremlin. Unlike Yanukovych, he is personally charismatic and politically talented. The essence of Trump’s agenda is the transformation of the American political order. Whether or not this succeeds, the attempt at regime change will remove the United States from the international scene for an indefinite period. Insofar as we have a foreign policy at all under a Trump administration, it will amount to allowing Russia and China to do what they want.
When thinking of how the United States matters to Ukraine, it is also worthwhile considering how Ukrainians (Ukrainian-Americans) will matter in this election.
Given the strange American electoral system, certain states matter more than others. Ukrainian-Americans are 1% of the population of Pennsylvania, and 0.5% of the population of Michigan. If Trump wins those two states, he will win the general election. If Harris wins those two states, then she will win the general election.
Timothy Snyder wrote an excellent piece on how electing Kamala Harris is essential to Ukraine existing as an independent nation.
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This pattern holds across many of the conventional wars since World War II: a conflict over territory and power balance that began with the declaration of those modern states and that has flared intermittently ever since.
Armenia and Azerbaijan, for instance, two countries that also emerged out of the Soviet Union’s breakup, have fought periodic wars ever since, broken by long but tense cease-fires. India and Pakistan fought their first war within months of their independence and partition in 1947, followed by three more wars, most recently in 1999, and repeated lower-level conflicts now held at a tentative nuclear peace. North and South Korea reached an armistice in 1953 but remain in a technical state of war with occasional flare-ups and an ever-present threat of all-out fighting.
Such conflicts, in other words, have often persisted for as many as six or seven decades. With peace talks minimal or nonexistent in many cases, some may well continue longer than that.
And while outright fighting may be infrequent, with what Dr. Radchenko termed “active phases” lasting only a few months, periods of calm typically require deep international involvement to maintain. American troops, for instance, have been garrisoned in South Korea for more than 70 years.
It is impossible to predict whether this represents the future for Russia and Ukraine, though it perhaps already describes their present state. The seven years before Russia’s 2022 invasion were marked by lower-level fighting, with heavy Western diplomacy and support to Ukraine aimed at forestalling wider conflict.
This pattern shows that one side rarely vanquishes the other outright, especially with foreign states ready to step in. And it offers another lesson: Political change within those countries rarely provides the sort of breakthrough that observers are hoping might one day lead Moscow to pull back. The decade-long Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, for instance, only deepened with the elevation, in 1985, of the reform-minded leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
— What 70 Years of War Can Tell Us About the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
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Flora Garamvolgyi and David Smith at The Guardian:
Allies of Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán will hold a closed-door meeting with Republicans in Washington to push for an end to US military support for Ukraine, the Guardian has learned.
Members of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and staff from the Hungarian embassy in Washington will on Monday begin a two-day event hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation thinktank.
The first day includes panel speeches about the Ukraine war as well as topics such as Transatlantic Culture Wars. It is expected to feature guests including Magor Ernyei, the international director of the Centre for Fundamental Rights, the institute that organized CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) Hungary. Kelley Currie, a former ambassador under then president Donald Trump, said she was invited “but declined”.
According to a Republican source, some of the attendees, including Republican members of Congress, have been invited to join closed-door talks the next day.
The meeting will take place against a backdrop of tense debate in Washington over Ukraine’s future. Last week the White House warned that, without congressional action, money to buy more weapons and equipment for Kyiv will run out by the end of the year. On Wednesday Senate Republicans blocked an emergency spending bill to fund the war in Ukraine.
A diplomatic source close to the Hungarian embassy said: “Orbán is confident that the Ukraine aid will not pass in Congress. That is why he is trying to block assistance from the EU as well.”
Orbán is a frequent critic of aid to help Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Seen as Vladimir Putin’s closest ally inside the EU for the past few years, he was photographed smiling and shaking hands with the Russian president two months ago in Beijing.
Orbán recently demanded that Ukraine’s European Union (EU) membership be taken off the European Council’s agenda in December. The Hungarian leader posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter: “It is clear that the proposal of the European Commission on Ukraine’s EU accession is unfounded and poorly prepared.”
The Heritage Foundation is leading Project 2025, a coalition preparing for the next conservative presidential administration, and has in recent months hosted speeches by leading British Conservative party members Liz Truss and Iain Duncan Smith.
The thinktank has also been a vocal opponent of US assistance to Ukraine. Last year Jessica Anderson, the executive director of its lobbying operation, released a statement under the headline: “Ukraine Aid Package Puts America Last.” In August, Victoria Coates, Heritage’s vice-president, posted on social media: “It’s time to end the blank, undated checks for Ukraine.”
When Heritage celebrated its 50th anniversary last April, Orbán’s political director, Balázs Orbán (no relation), was invited as a speaker for the event. Heritage’s president, Kevin Roberts, repeatedly praised the Hungarian leader on X: “One thing is clear from visiting Hungary and from being involved in current policy and cultural debates in America: the world needs a movement that fights for Truth, for tradition, for families, and for the average person.”
In recent years Orbán has championed a transatlantic far-right alliance with a hardline stance against immigration and “gender ideology”, staunch Christian nationalism and scorn for those who warn of a slide into authoritarianism.
Allies of Hungary's far-right autocrat PM Viktor Orbán are meeting with Republicans to effectively force Ukraine to surrender to Russia by ending US Military support for Ukraine.
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People & countries mentioned in the thread:
DR Congo - M23, Cobalt
Darfur, Sudan - International Criminal Court, CNN, BBC (Overview); Twitter Explanation on Sudan
Tigray - Human Rights Watch (Ethnic Cleansing Report)
the Sámi people - IWGIA, Euronews
Hawai'i - IWGIA
Syria - Amnesty International
Kashmir- Amnesty Summary (PDF), Wikipedia (Jammu and Kashmir), Human Rights Watch (2022)
Iran - Human Rights Watch, Morality Police (Mahsa/Jina Amini - Al Jazeera, Wikipedia)
Uyghurs - Uyghur Human Rights Project (UHRP) Q&A, Wikipedia, Al Jazeera, UN Report
Tibetans - SaveTibet.org, United Nations
Yazidi people - Wikipedia, United Nations
West Papua - Free West Papua, Genocide Watch
Yemen - Human Rights Watch (Saudi border guards kill migrants), Carrd
Sri Lanka (Tamils) - Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch
Afghans in Pakistan - Al Jazeera, NPR
Ongoing Edits: more from the notes / me
Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh/Azerbaijan (Artsakh) - Global Conflict Tracker ("Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict"), Council on Foreign Relations, Human Rights Watch (Azerbaijan overview), Armenian Food Bank
Baháʼís in Iran - Bahá'í International Community, Amnesty, Wikipedia, Minority Rights Group International
Kafala System in the Middle East - Council on Foreign Relations, Migrant Rights
Rohingya - Human Rights Watch, UNHCR, Al Jazeera, UNICEF
Montagnards (Vietnam Highlands) - World Without Genocide, Montagnard Human Rights Organization (MHRO), VOA News
Ukraine - Human Rights Watch (April 2022), Support Ukraine Now (SUN), Ukraine Website, Schools & Education (HRW), Dnieper River advancement (Nov. 15, 2023 - Ap News)
Reblogs with Links / From Others
Indigenous Ppl of Canada, Cambodia, Mexico, Colombia
Libya
Armenia Reblog 1, Armenia Reblog 2
Armenia, Ukraine, Central African Republic, Indigenous Americans, Black ppl (US)
Rohingya (Myanmar)
More Hawai'i Links from @sageisnazty - Ka Lahui Hawaii, Nation of Hawai'i on Soverignty, Rejected Apology Resolution
From @rodeodeparis: Assyrian Policy Institute, Free Yezidi
From @is-this-a-cool-url: North American Manipur Tribal Association (NAMTA)
From @dougielombax & compiled by @azhdakha: Assyrians & Yazidis
West Sahara conflict
Last Updated: Feb. 19th, 2024 (If I missed smth before this, feel free to @ me to add it)
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