#Ukraine Counteroffensive

[deborahdeshoftim5779]

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claims to be "carefully studying" a peace plan. Of course, Ukrainian politicians have responded angrily. But even this misses the point.

Why has Putin repeatedly mentioned peace plans and negotiation recently? Because after 17 months of war, Russia has not only failed to win, but now has to fend off Ukrainian attacks around the occupied territories.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is struggling, no doubt. And the Russians have resorted to obscene tactics in order to slow down Ukrainian progress: blowing up the Kakhovka Dam and backing out of the Turkey-backed graine deal.

All of this will not change the fact that Ukraine is encroaching on Russian-held areas, exposing Putin to the possibility of another shock defeat such as the chaotic expulsion of Russian soldiers from Kharkiv province last autumn.

In fact, the more obscene tactics Russia uses, the more energised the Ukrainian resistance. Many of us predicted this from the beginning. As I have said before, Putin has not read history properly: every previous attempt by Russia to rule over Ukraine has ended, either by war (the Russian Empire) or by popular vote (the Soviet Union).

Putin has to know by now, given the number of pro-Putin Russians who have been fired from his government or have suddenly died, that total victory in Ukraine is impossible. He has to have known this ever since Russian soldiers withdrew from around Kyiv last year, because he responded to that withdrawal by claiming that he had never intended to seize Kyiv, but was merely preparing for the 'real' battle in the Donbas.

This was a pathetic lie, of course, designed to save face. Putin had invested in an early victory by seizing the Ukrainian capital within five days. He totally failed, and that failure is obvious even to Russian propagandists.

Naturally, Putin cannot and will never admit to defeat, especially not the Soviet-style Afghanistan humiliation he has caused in Ukraine. His only option is to facilitate a withdrawal that allows him to save face and cast himself as a moderate who could have pursued the war, but instead chose peace. The only way for Putin to save face is to leave the conflict with Ukrainian guarantees not to join NATO (and possibly not the EU), and if possible, with recognition of the four Ukrainian provinces he annexed last year.

It may be that Putin hopes his peace plan talk will entice the international community to put pressure on Ukraine to end its counteroffensive in order to facilitate negotiations. If so, then such a gamble only demonstrates the Kremlin's concern about any possible Ukrainian gains and how these will be perceived among Putin's supporters.

As the war drags on, a stalemate and/or negotiation becomes increasingly likely. But Ukrainian adviser to the Head of Office for President Zelenskyy, Mykhailo Podolyak, claimed on Twitter that the Russians 'refuse to talk to us'.

It should be noted, however, that Zelenskyy himself closed down negotiations with Russia in around April last year, especially after the atrocities in Bucha, and later said that negotiations with Russia are impossible under the current "president".

(Despite fighting a blatantly totalitarian regime, Zelenskyy still referred to Putin as a "president" and claimed in an interview with the Washington Post last year that all or most Russians had voted for him, when Russian elections are just as fraudulent as the Russia-backed "referendums" in Crimea, Zaporizhzia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.)

Nonetheless, Zelenskyy is right to note that Russia must change politically, which is one of the demands that Podolyak noted as a Ukrainian condition for peace. Here they are in full: '1)- Get out of Ukraine; 2)- Change the political elite; 3)- Admit war crimes; 4)- Extradite the authors of the war to the tribunal.'

Of course, Ukraine's demands mean that Putin, his government and allies (Belarusian dictator Lukashenko) will have to be removed from power and put in front of of a war crimes tribunal (as well as much of the Russian army); he will have to confess to his war crimes, including the deliberate bombing of Ukrainian civilians and conspiracy to commit forced depopulation and deportation, and he will have to surrender all of the territory he has stolen from Ukraine since February 2014.

Sadly, it isn't likely that Putin will end up before a war crimes committee.

The recent attempted mutiny by Wagner Group terrorist Yevgeny Prigozhin, however serious the mutiny really was to the Kremlin, still indicates that Putin has many enemies in Russia. I doubt he would make it long enough out of power to be able to visit any tribunal, let alone the International Criminal Court. A foundational reason for Putin's continuance of this failed and outrageous war is to protect his power. Yes, this war is also about greed and imperialism, but even if neither of those two reasons existed, Putin would still have launched this war.

Dictators need war to survive. Putin wouldn't be in power today if it weren't for war. But war is the very means by which dictators have collapsed. Putin has gambled everything and has very little to show or himself so far. He therefore talks peace to save face and maintain legitimacy. Everyone who supports freedom should make it clear that Putin has none.

[bobjackets]

Some much needed support for both.

[taiwantalk]

Wow. This is like a chess move. Check. Can attack Mariupol or donetsk or go diagonal & strike Melitopol… (a bit far of course) but depends on what’s in the way.

[tomorrowusa]

Members of the puppet government which Russia set up in the occupied city of Tokmak are apparently leaving as the Ukrainian military advanced to within 20 km of town.

That’s according to the information of locals reported by Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, which is the next occupied Ukrainian city in the area. “The occupiers are being smoked out of Tokmak. Almost daily explosions and the liberation of settlements in the Melitopol direction transform Tokmak, which is still occupied, to a completely front-line city,” Fedorov said. While the initial distance from the Russian-occupied city of Tokmak to the frontline was about 31 km, it is now less than 20 km as the Ukrainian army advanced, taking Robotyne and areas around it. The Ukrainian army has reached the second line of Russian defense in the area.

A few days ago Ukraine liberated the village of Robotyne. Ukraine's goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and thereby cut the Russian-occupied territories in two.

As was reported, following the liberation of Robotyne, Ukrainian troops are continuing their offensive in Melitopol direction in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, bypassing minefields and advancing towards the second line of defense of the Russian Army.

In other news, Ukrainian drones damaged four large Russian Il-76 transport planes in the city of Pskov near the border with Estonia.

Drone strike damages four Il-76 aircraft deep in Russian territory

[anastasiamaru]

Ukrainian Armed Forces

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"В наступ літо наступає.Сонце ворога пече.Хай як віск- загарбник тане.І до пекла весь втече.Вправно станемо до бою.

Перемогу наближати.

Крим попереду,кордони.

Нумо край наш визволяти!Знаємо свою роботу:в зливи,спеку,крізь вітри.Все пройде морська піхота.Кожен з нас -Вірний Завжди" Р.Липинський

✦ 　　　　 　 　˚　　 . ✦ 　　　　.　　　　　　　　.　　　　　　　ﾟ　　　　　.　　　　　　　•　　　　　　　　. 

[workersolidarity]

Seymour Hersh: Prigozhin’s Folly

In an interview with Seymour Hersh, an anonymous Intelligence Officer gives a condensed analysis of the recent Wagner PMC Rebellion and how it has strengthened Putin's position:

Seymour Hersh was also given access to some intelligence on the great so-called counter-offensive that began about three weeks ago, and has only led to the capture of a number of small, depopulated hamlets, a few fields and some abandoned trench networks.

At the end of the article, Sey Hersh goes on to give his own assessment of the current iteration of the Democratic Party:

"as the Democrats move closer to the intellectual and moneyed classes" is the key sentence here. But unacknowledged in this assessment is the fact that the Democratic Party made this decision long, long ago.

The Democratic Party represents one coalition of Capitalist Class Elites, while the Republican Party represents another coalition of Elites.

The Republican Party represents the old moneyed elites, the Fossil Fuel companies, old Wall Street, big traditional Investment Banks, Military Contractors, Energy and Natural Resource extraction and processing companies, and some traditional Manufacturing, Shipping and trading companies.

The Democrats represent the new moneyed interests, the Silicon Valley tech giants (this is why Dems talk about Net Neutrality and breaking up tech giants but magically never bring a bill to vote), other Tech and Engineering companies, Renewable energy companies getting massive subsidies under Democratic budgets along with favorable regulations (amazing how much they can get done for their donors even as they can never manage passing anything in favor of workers who vote for them).

But despite the parts of their coalitions that are different, the Democratic and Republican Parties have far more of their parts of their coalitions in common: Defense Contractors, Energy companies, Insurance companies, Big Banks and Wall Street.

THAT is who the two parties truly represent: the donors and Lobbyists they share together.

That is why they can always find money for war, new military bases, big weapons procurement projects, Imperialist actions abroad, oil drilling, deregulation, austerity, disinvestment in American communities, subsidies and tax breaks for the rich and giant corporations, all the while inflicting censorship and political repression of alternative views and media domestically.

Anything done positive for workers and civilians is incidental to their goals and policies, or is an attempt to throw a bone to people to keep them engaged with the system.

[jloisse]

🇺🇦 Véhicules blindés des forces armées ukrainiennes détruits et abandonnés dans la direction de Zaporizhzhya

[goodassmotherliker]

Today was a beautiful sunny day in Kyiv. Whenever we went, chestnut seeds kept falling from the trees and lying scattered under our feet. Even when we were drinking beer, watching the panel houses (as well as ugly new houses) light up and the cars clog up in traffic jams on the way out of the Left Bank, we could still hear chestnuts fall. This is everything. This is home.

[beardedmrbean]

French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday called on the West to offer Ukraine "tangible and credible" security guarantees as it battles Russia's invasion.

Stressing that Ukraine "is today protecting Europe", Macron said in Bratislava that it is in the West's interest that Kyiv have security assurances from NATO. 

"That is why I'm in favour, and this will be the subject of collective talks in the following weeks... to offer tangible and credible security guarantees to Ukraine," he added.

He said various NATO members could provide these guarantees for the time being as Ukraine waits to join the alliance. 

"We have to build something between the security provided to Israel and full-fledged membership," Macron said.

The French head of state is on a visit to Slovakia, where he delivered a speech at an event organised by the international affairs think tank Globsec.

The event, focussed on regional security issues, comes in the run-up to the NATO summit in Lithuanian capital Vilnius on July 11-12. 

Macron recalled that he once called the Western defence alliance "brain dead" but said Russia's invasion last year "had jolted NATO awake". 

"We need to help Ukraine today with all means to carry out an effective counter-offensive" against Russian forces, Macron said.

"It's what we are currently doing. We have to intensify our efforts because what will happen in the next few months offers a chance even for... a lasting peace."

Macron also called on EU nations to buy European arms and acquire in-depth strike capabilities.

"It is up to us Europeans to in the future have our own ability to defend ourselves," he said.

"A Europe of defence, a European pillar within NATO, is indispensable. It's the only way to be credible... in the long-term," he said.

- 'EU must enlarge' -

The French leader also called for EU enlargement, to bring more countries into the fold.

The European Union should "invent several formats" to meet the membership aspirations of countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, he said.

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine itself are among the countries which have applied to join the European bloc, but conforming to the accession rules can be a difficult and timely procedure.

"Yes, it (the EU) must enlarge. Yes, it must be rethought in terms of its governance and its aims. Yes, it must innovate, no doubt, to invent several formats and clarify the aims of each of these formats," Macron declared.

"This is the only way to meet the legitimate expectations of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine, which must join the European Union, and to maintain the geopolitical effectiveness, but also the climate, the rule of law and the economic integration of the European Union as it exists today," he insisted.

The two alternatives are to make candidate nations "wait indefinitely" or to let them swiftly join the existing EU structure with the risk that the bloc will no longer be able to function.

Macron will next visit Moldova on Thursday where he will meet with fellow European leaders, including from outside the European Union. 

[chrysocomae]

[taiwantalk]

It’s terrible that there are so many tweets updating the geographical movements of the counteroffensive. I only comment when it’s reported by msm or by Ukrainian press releases.

Twitter should really shut down those tweets.

[head-post]

Kyiv forced to scale back army operations as Western aid runs out

A spokesman for Ukraine’s military command has warned that the army has already been forced to scale back some operations due to delays in Western support.

General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said that Ukrainian troops faced an acute shortage of ammunition along “the entire front line”, which poses a “big problem” for further combat operations. Kyiv has continually asked for more weapons, including ammunition, but tens of billions of pounds of military aid has been delayed due to political disagreements in the US and EU. This delay is visible on the battlefield. He said in an interview:

“There’s a problem with ammunition, especially post-Soviet (shells) – that’s 122mm, 152mm. And today these problems exist across the entire frontline. The volumes that we have today are not sufficient for us today, given our needs. So, we’re redistributing it. We’re replanning tasks that we had set for ourselves and making them smaller because we need to provide for them.”

Ukraine depends heavily on Western support, with the US providing much of the military aid.

Admiral Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee:

 “The bottom of the barrel is now visible.”

Read more HERE

[tomorrowusa]

From @nexta_tv

Always take news from the Russian government with a few tons of salt.

Despite burn and scorch damage, it's clear that the patch from the dead soldier is unmistakably Russian. It looks like they may have tried to photoshop the remaining telltale lettering away. There also seems to be a Russian red star on the hat of the caricature.

The rather odd inscription is: РУССКАЯ ТАКТИЧЕСКАЯ БОРОДА It means "Russian Tactical Beard". It doesn't seem to be a unit but rather some sort of community. They even have an account at VK which is Russia's largest social network.

Just for comparison, this would be the same phrase in Ukrainian: РОСІЙСЬКА ТАКТИЧНА БОРОДА; Ukrainian nominative feminine adjective grammatical endings tend to be -А rather than -АЯ. No Ukrainian would be caught dead wearing that Russian patch. If you do a search for "УКРАЇНСЬКА ТАКТИЧНА БОРОДА" (Ukrainian tactical beard) that style doesn't show up.

You can buy such a patch in Russia for 590 rubles. https://alfastore.ru/aksessuary/shevrony/shevron-russkaya-takticheskaya-boroda

Those patches do come in a variety of fonts and colors.

Because Missing In Action is not the same as Killed In Action, Russia has a habit of abandoning the bodies of its dead on the battlefield. That way Putin doesn't have to pay relatives of the dead soldier any survivor's benefits. By pretending those Russian tank crew members are Ukrainian, Putin can pocket a few more rubles to help build another palace for himself.

As for that Russian, misidentified as Ukrainian, he joins over 216,000 other Russians as fatalities in Putin's three-day "special operation".