#biden outmaneuvers the gop

[tomorrowusa]

NO great outcome was possible in the debt limit negotiations with Republicans. But Biden ended up with one which was far less bad than many people had feared.

Even though this crisis was provoked by House Republicans, many voters would have blamed Biden if the US had defaulted. As it turned out, Biden ended up with just a little dust on his jacket while McCarthy ends up with a self-made shit sandwich. 💩

Dan Pfeiffer was an aide to President Obama and has witnessed GOP blackmail close up. He writes...

Let’s be clear, this is shitty public policy foisted on the nation by a radical Republican House willing to blow up the economy and cause millions of jobs to vanish. Efforts to deal with deficits that do not include asking the wealthy and corporations to pay what they owe are cruel and wholly unserious. The tightening of access to aid for the most vulnerable Americans serves no purpose other than performative cruelty to appease the MAGA base.

But this could have been way worse in so many ways. The devil is very much in the details, but it seems like President Biden and his team outplayed McCarthy.

Republicans like to portray Joe Biden as doddering and totally out of it; never mind that Trump is only slightly younger and shows obvious signs of hysteria. But even if you don't grade Biden on a curve, he still comes out ahead of the GOP.

The far right MAGA fanatics absolutely hate the deal.

Jordan Weissmann at Semafor writes...

Afterwards, a quick consensus formed among much of the right and left: Republicans got blanked.

The agreement would temporarily freeze a portion of non-defense spending, while temporarily tightening the food stamp program’s work requireme​​nts for childless adults, and enacting modest changes to Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.

The early details prompted furious reactions from members of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, who’d hoped to extract vastly more sweeping budget cuts and changes to the federal safety net in return for hiking the borrowing limit.

[ ... ]

As Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo put it, it’s a bit like they walked into a Denny’s with a gun, demanded all the money in the cash register, and left with a breakfast instead. Extraordinary threats at the start, an ordinary transaction at the finish.

While this was not a great deal for anybody, Speaker McCarthy will likely suffer the most because of it.

Timothy Noah at The New Republic writes...

When this debt ceiling mess is concluded, Biden will stay president at least until January 20, 2025. McCarthy, I predict, will be gone by Christmas, and possibly before Labor Day. Should he somehow hang on to his speakership, he’ll be so diminished that you’ll barely notice he’s still there. He won’t be able to get anything done. So either way, McCarthy is toast.

McCarthy will probably have to rely on Democratic votes for the debt deal to pass. That will infuriate the far right even more.

Let's remember that one of McCarthy's concessions to the far right during the marathon election for Speaker in January was to make it possible for any member to introduce a motion to "vacate the chair". So any GOP members dissatisfied with the debt ceiling agreement could theoretically topple McCarthy – if Democrats decided to go along.

So while Republicans make a public spectacle of themselves, Dems can stock up on popcorn and collect crazy soundbites from Republicans who are more interested in nihilism than in governance.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Stephen Robinson at Public Notice:

Kamala Harris clobbered Donald Trump during their first (and likely only) presidential debate on September 10. She humiliated him by smirking and laughing at his offensive buffoonery. She appeared strong and presidential, while Trump looked weak and confused, often reduced to incoherent babble. It was a total reversal from Trump’s June 27 debate with Joe Biden, which was uniformly considered a disaster for the president. But how Biden and Trump responded to their defeats further highlights the stark differences between the two men and their parties. One party acknowledges reality and aspires toward furthering the public good even when it involves personal sacrifice and wounded egos. The other is a cult of personality that would rather lie to its supporters than admit their dear leader is fallible.

Winners don’t usually complain about rigging

Biden’s debate performance resulted in a crisis of confidence about his ability as a candidate. Although some Biden supporters complained about the moderators or tried to minimize the event’s significance, they at least acknowledged that the president didn’t come off well. Supporting Trump, however, is like taking up permanent residence in Lewis Carroll’s storybook Wonderland where you must believe nine impossible things before breakfast, no matter if they contradict each other. Trump’s post-debate narrative is barely coherent. He claims the ABC moderators conspired with the Harris campaign to rig it against him, but he also insists he won. He’s gone as far as to compare himself to a prizefighter who scored a resounding knockout. “Comrade Kamala Harris is going around wanting another Debate because she lost so badly — Just look at the Polls! It’s true with prizefighters, when they lose a fight, they immediately want another. MAGA2024,” Trump posted on Truth Social just hours after the debate.

[...] Democrats started having difficult conversations about Biden almost immediately after his debate loss. They understood the president’s performance had reinforced a damaging narrative about his cognitive fitness and would be tough to come back from. The Biden campaign might’ve initially painted anyone sounding alarms as “bed wetters,” but the post-debate polls were a sobering reality check. The current post-debate aftermath is just as alarming, if not more so, for Trump. Harris now leads Trump in at least six polls conducted after she laughed in his face on live TV. A YouGov poll found that voters overwhelmingly believe she won the debate (56 percent to 26 percent). Even better for Harris and our representative democracy, 41 percent of independents say they learned positive information about her.

[...] But Trump needed to do more than just remain standing against Harris. His primary objective in the debate was to halt Harris’s momentum and negatively define her. He clearly failed while Harris succeeded in presenting a positive, presidential image to undecided voters. Focus groups conducted after the debate agreed that she outmaneuvered Trump at every step. Unlike the GOP primaries in 2016 and 2024, Trump is only running away with the election in his own twisted imagination. 

[...] Contrast Biden’s realism with Trump, who’s fundamentally incapable of presenting himself as an “underdog.” He’s always on top, dominating his opponents. It’s only the rigged system that tries to pull him down. Despite Biden’s efforts, his polling remained bleak and it looked increasingly likely that Trump might win decisively, flipping control of the Senate and expanding the GOP’s House majority. Democratic leaders understood that a course correction was necessary. They met with Biden and urged him to reconsider his decision to stay in. Yet, even at his lowest point politically, Biden held all the leverage. No one could force him to step aside. The pressure from Nancy Pelosi, Democratic donors, and allies was effective only because Biden cared about the party defeating Trump. Defending democracy was more important than his ego. This was the ultimate test of character and Biden passed it with flying colors.

The difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s debate performances reveal two different people and who they are: Biden admitted to having an awful debate without complaint even as he was fighting off attempts to withdraw the candidacy (though he did eventually withdraw); while Trump delusionally believes he won the debate that most objective observers believe he lost.

[mariacallous]

A Trump-appointed prosecutor dropped an unfalsifiable partisan bomb on President Joe Biden Thursday, playing into a years-long right-wing media campaign — and U.S. political journalists decided to treat it as a valid and impartial charge.

Biden, who has a 40-year record of public service in the U.S. Senate, as vice president, and in the Oval Office, is a self-described “gaffe machine” with a well-documented stutter. He is also, at 81, the oldest president in U.S. history.

The right has dedicated substantial time and resources since Biden launched his 2020 presidential campaign to attributing his verbal miscues to his age. Republican political operatives surface out-of-context snippets of Biden’s misstatements and try to blow them up into national stories, and it is rarely-disputed canon in the right-wing media that the president is a mentally failing dementia patient. 

This argument blew up in their faces when Biden performed so well in a debate against then-President Donald Trump that the GOP resorted to accusing him of taking performance-enhancing drugs, and again in 2023, when his canny dealings with then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy led McCarthy to describe him as “very smart” and Republicans to question how they’d been outmaneuvered by someone purportedly in mental decline. But undeterred by reality, the right has maintained the drumbeat over Biden’s mental status, driving up public concern over the president’s age.

Enter Robert Hur. Attorney General Merrick Garland presumably selected him as a special counsel to investigate Biden’s possible unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents or other records because he thought he could quell potential complaints of political bias by putting in charge a former clerk to right-wing judges whom Trump appointed as a U.S. attorney with every incentive to do maximum political damage to the Democratic president. This is a regular pattern — Republican and Democratic administrations each appoint Republicans to investigate both Republicans and Democrats, though that never seems to halt the complaints from the right about the handling of those cases.

On Thursday, after a year-long investigation, Hur issued a 345-page report in which he concluded that “​​no criminal charges are warranted in this matter” and that “the evidence does not establish Mr. Biden's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.” But rather than stop there, he also levied an incendiary and gratuitous attack on Biden’s mental status, claiming that, “at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Hur cited specific mental lapses he’d observed during their five hours of interviews — conducted at a time when Biden was responding to the international crisis caused by the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel — including that his “memory appeared hazy” when discussing the intricacies of 15-year-old White House policy debates.

Hur’s argument that lawyers for the sitting president of the United States would argue in court that he shouldn’t be convicted of a crime because he is a senile old man is facially absurd. Indeed, Biden forcefully pushed back on the critique during a White House appearance Thursday night.

The special counsel’s actions drew sharp criticism from the legal community. Biden’s lawyers blasted claims about Biden’s memory in a draft report, saying, “We do not believe that the report's treatment of President Biden's memory is accurate or appropriate. The report uses highly prejudicial language to describe a commonplace occurrence among witnesses: a lack of recall of years-old events.” On MSNBC, former FBI counsel Andrew Weissmann called the claims “wholly inappropriate,” “gratuitous,” and “exactly what you’re not supposed to do, which is putting your thumb on the scale that could have political repercussions.” Neal Katyal, the former acting U.S. solicitor general, likewise said that based on his tours in the Justice Department, Hur’s statements were “totally gratuitous” and a “too-clever-move-by-half by the special counsel to try and take some swipes at a sitting president.” And Ty Cobb, a former Trump lawyer, said on CNN that he had served on an independent counsel probe that declined to prosecute someone due to “health issues, but we didn’t tell the world that,” suggesting that such statements by Hur were inappropriate.

But by including those inappropriate and gratuitous statements, Hur put an official seal on a partisan attack. 

The right jumped on Hur’s claims, with Republican politicians and right-wing commentators falsely claiming that the special counsel had found that Biden “is not competent to stand trial” and “has dementia.” Some called for the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and remove him from office.

The mainstream political press, meanwhile, turned Hur’s insinuations about Biden’s mental health — and not his declination to prosecute — into the report’s big takeaway. Here’s a sampling of top headlines from major newspapers, political tipsheets, and digital outlets on Thursday and Friday.

New York Times: “Eight Words and a Verbal Slip Put Biden’s Age Back at the Center of 2024” Axios: “1 big thing: Report questions Biden’s memory” Semafor Flagship: “DoJ report questions Biden’s memory” Washington Post: “Special counsel report paints scathing picture of Biden’s memory” Wall Street Journal: “Biden’s Age Back in Spotlight After Special Counsel Report, Verbal Flubs” CNN: “Biden tries to lay to rest age concerns, but may have exacerbated them” ABC News: “Special counsel blows open debate over Biden age and memory” CBS News: “Biden disputes special counsel findings, insists his memory is fine” Politico: “Age isn’t just a number. It’s a profound and growing problem for Biden.

Stories about Biden’s mental state are clearly catnip for political journalists. They can demonstrate how “fair” they are by providing negative coverage of Biden to balance their treatment of his likely opponent Donald Trump, who is an unhinged authoritarian facing scores of federal and state criminal charges, including for attempting to subvert the 2020 presidential election. And they don’t need to bone up on policy nuances separating the candidates — “is the president addled” is an easy venue for hot takes.

The storyline is particularly toxic because no matter how many times it is repudiated by Biden’s public actions or the statements of people who have spoken to him privately, it cannot be falsified. The White House physician can release health summaries calling him “fit to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency.” Democrats who have recently spoken to the president, like Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), and reporters who have recently interviewed him, like John Harwood, can attest to his mental acuity at the time of his special counsel interview. But Biden is still Biden, so he’s going to keep making gaffes, as he did Thursday night when he referred to Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as “the president of Mexico,” leading journalists to downplay his newsmaking statements about the Israel-Hamas war and fixate instead on what the statement says about his mental health. 

The choice for reporters is how they respond to such misstatements. On NPR, Mara Liasson said that the White House is pushing back by pointing out that Biden’s foes, like Fox’s Sean Hannity and Trump, have had similar mix-ups.

“But the difference is that one of these missteps, one of these guys who forgets things, Biden, has become a viral meme, and it's become a big problem for him,” she said. “Trump's misstatements, for some reason, have not risen to that level.”

It’s true that Trump’s own verbal missteps have not coalesced into an overarching narrative about his mental fitness for office. But the reason why is obvious: Political journalists decided to treat Biden’s missteps as a big problem, and Trump’s as a small one. They’re setting the agenda, following the lead of the Republican Party, the right-wing media, and now, Hur.

[mongowheelie]

Conservative explains how Biden 'outmaneuvered' Trump on debates - Alternet.org

[cyarskj1899]

MIDTERMS 2022

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Election Results 2022 Live: Democrats Get Boost for Senate Control; GOP Inches Closer to Narrow House Majority

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Latest Developments, Analysis and Results

Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was re-elected to a second term representing Nevada, giving Democrats continued control of the chamber and disappointing Republicans who believed they had a strong chance to seize the majority.

Sen. Mark Kelly re-election win in Arizona bolstered Democrats’ prospects of keeping the Senate. Republicans remained on track to take the House majority, but their expected gains had narrowed significantly. Nevada's key Senate race remained too close to call with Democrats one seat away from control. Arizona's governor race remained tight as well.

More:

Why Independent Voters Broke for Democrats

Graphics: Midterms Point to Closely Divided House

How Different Groups Voted

Democrats Keep Senate Majority as Catherine Cortez Masto Wins Re-Election in Nevada

Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was re-elected to a second term representing Nevada in the U.S. Senate, giving Democrats continued control of the chamber and disappointing Republicans who believed they had a strong chance to seize the majority in the midterm elections

Ms. Cortez Masto, 58 years old, had 48.7% of the votes with 97% counted when the Associated Press called the race, compared with 48.2% for Republican Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general. Her win gives Democrats control of 50 seats, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties, even without a result yet from the Dec. 6 Senate runoff in Georgia.

Democrats will now retain the power to confirm Mr. Biden’s nominees without help from the GOP, extending a string of judicial confirmations that he pushed through over the past two years. Senate control will also allow Democrats to more easily confirm any new executive-branch appointees, including cabinet officials, who may have faced long odds if Republicans took control.

Republicans had banked on a late breaking “red wave” to catapult them to a majority of at least a few seats in the Senate, which has stood at 50-50 for the past two years. Ahead of Election Day, nonpartisan analysts had favored Republicans to win back the House, while considering Senate control a tossup.

It was one of four Senate seats rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, an independent arbiter of elections. Democrats had prioritized defending the seat, which was widely considered to be the Republicans’ best chance to flip a Democratic-held Senate seat and help deliver the chamber into GOP control.

Democrats had jumped into the race early to paint the vastly underfunded Mr. Laxalt as a corrupt politician more interested in serving his own interests than those of the state. They hit him for his pro-life stance, asserting against his denials that he would vote for a nationwide abortion ban, for his personal investments in oil and drug companies, and for his efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election results.

That was just enough to outmaneuver Republicans, who had tried to benefit from a political environment in which voters have been dissatisfied with high inflation and crime. Over the past year, Nevada has had some of the highest gasoline prices in the nation, based on data from the American Automobile Association, and sharpest rental increases, according to research firm HelpAdvisor. Republicans tied her to the price increases by pointing to her vote for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package shortly after President Biden took office.

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Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto

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AP Race Calls

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Wins in Washington District Carried by Trump in 2020

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican Joe Kent, the Associated Press said late Saturday, flipping a House seat in Washington state previously held by a Republican and chalking up one of the biggest upsets of the cycle.

With 70% of the estimated vote counted, Ms. Gluesenkamp Perez had 50.8% to Mr. Kent’s 49.2%.

The win gives Democrats a boost in their narrow but still possible path to retaining control of the House. Heading into the midterms, nonpartisan analysis had favored Republicans to hold Washington’s 3rd District, where voters had picked former President Donald Trump over President Biden in the 2020 presidential election by 4 percentage points.

The race became more competitive when the incumbent GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler was defeated in her primary by Mr. Kent, in part for voting to impeach Mr. Trump.

Dave Wasserman of race analyst Cook Political Report called it a "big upset," saying it is the only race that Cook ranked "lean" or "likely" Republican or Democrat to be won by the other party so far.

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Washington 3rd District

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

wins House race

AP Race Calls

Smart. Compelling. Essential.

Kari Lake - Katie Hobbs Race Remains Tight for Arizona Governor After New Batch of Votes

A new batch of votes released in Arizona's most populous county saw Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor, close the gap slightly with her Democratic opponent Katie Hobbs. However, if Ms. Lake is going to win she will need to do better in remaining batches.

Ms. Lake won the roughly 85,000 votes released Saturday 52% to 48%, however in order to overtake Ms. Hobbs she will need to draw in higher percentages in the remaining 190,000 ballots that still need to be tabulated.

Ms. Hobbs currently leads Ms. Lake by 35,000 votes.

All eyes are on Maricopa County as Arizona continues to tally ballots in the only remaining competitive governors' race in the country. Ms. Lake is seen as the most prominent ally this election of former president Donald Trump and surrogate for his false claims of election fraud.

On Friday, the Associated Press projected Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly would win reelection against Blake Masters, and former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes was projected to beat state Rep. Mark Finchem, both of whom are allies of Mr. Trump.

Bill Gates, the Republican chair of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, said on CNN Saturday night nearly all of the remaining ballots are mail-in ballots that were dropped off or arrived on Election Day.

Republicans had been hopeful that those ballots would favor them because their candidates had urged people to wait until Election Day to vote. So far, the ballots have not been as friendly to Republicans as ballots cast in person on Election Day. Ballots that were mailed before Election Day have favored Democrats.

Two Arizona House seats also remain too close to call.

Senate Majority Rests on Nevada, Georgia as Results Trickle In

WASHINGTON—The battle over party control of both chambers of Congress was extremely tight on Saturday as more ballots were counted and the focus turned to races in the Western U.S. that will determine the agenda in Washington for the next two years.

Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly won a hard-fought re-election bid against Republican challenger Blake Masters, according to the Associated Press call on Friday night, boosting Democrats’ prospects of maintaining their Senate majority.

With the Arizona race called, Democrats have 49 seats and need to win one of two outstanding Senate races in Nevada and Georgia to keep their majority. Republicans, with 49 seats, must win both races to take control of the chamber, because the Democratic Party controls the White House and the vice president casts a tiebreaking vote.

Nevada Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto trailed GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by fewer than a thousand votes Saturday as the state continued counting ballots.

Pivotal results are expected later Saturday from Nevada’s Clark County, the state’s most populous. Joe Gloria, the county’s registrar of voters, told reporters that he expected to have within hours the tallies of all the mail-in ballots received by Saturday’s deadline. He said that number totaled more than 22,000.

Mr. Laxalt suggested that those results could mean his defeat. “Multiple days in a row, the mostly mail in ballots counted continue to break in higher DEM margins than we calculated,” he said on Twitter. “This has narrowed our victory window. The race will come down to 20-30k Election Day Clark drop off ballots.”

In addition, the county must process provisional ballots and ballots with problems like missing signatures that can be “cured” — fixed by voters — or discarded. The deadline for correcting a challenged ballot is Monday.

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Lauren Boebert's Lead Over Democrat Adam Frisch Widens in Colorado House Race

First-term Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert’s lead over Democratic challenger Adam Frisch has widened in her surprisingly tight Colorado House race.

With about 99% of the vote counted as of Friday evening, Ms. Boebert had 50.2% of the vote to 49.8% for Mr. Frisch, and her lead had grown to more than 1,100 votes from less than 900 votes that morning. The Associated Press has not made a call in the race.

Colorado state election rules require an automatic recount when a candidate wins by 0.5% or less of the winner's total vote count.

The race’s competitiveness caught many political analysts off guard. No mainstream polling group ever surveyed voters in the race, a sign that it was thought unlikely to be close.

Ms. Boebert, a Republican and gun rights activist, was elected to represent Colorado’s third congressional district in 2020. The district runs along the western side of the state, encompassing cities such as Grand Junction and Pueblo. Voters have favored Republican presidential candidates for at least two decades.

In her two short years on the Hill, Ms. Boebert has made headlines as a House Freedom Caucus member aligned with former President Donald Trump. She has challenged Republican leadership at times and become a frequent critic of the Biden administration’s military vaccine mandates.

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Rocket Man Mark Kelly Still Standing in Arizona

Mark Kelly, an astronaut turned Arizona Democratic Senator, said he was at the Elton John concert when he learned he had won his competitive Senate race against Republican Blake Masters. The Associated Press called it for Mr. Kelly on Friday evening.

Speaking to supporters in Phoenix, he celebrated winning a six-year term. "It was a great night last night -- Gabby and I were at the Elton John concert," he said with a smile.

Mr. Kelly thanked Arizona election officials and supporters. He also said he never forgets that he filled the seat vacated by the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, a Republican.

"When we come together and focus on solutions, we can make progress," he said.

Mr. Masters said on Twitter he wouldn’t concede until all ballots were tallied, adding that “voters decide, not the media; let’s count the votes.”

Trusted Insights. Global Impact.

Democrats Have Very Narrow Path to a House Majority

Republicans officially have 211 seats and Democrats have 201, according to AP calls. Democrats are expected to prevail in several more seats, but the odds appear slim that they can hold onto the 218 needed for the majority.

Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said Saturday he sees about six genuine toss-up House races where the expected winner is unclear. Democrats need to win all of those, as well as several races where he sees them having an advantage to keep the majority. Also possible is that Republicans end up close to Democrats’ current margin in the House, which stands at 220-212, with three absences.

Mr. Wasserman identified 11 seats in California that were unresolved. Of those, Cook Political Report rated the GOP as favored in four, Democrats favored in three, and four as tossups.

On Thursday, President Biden termed the Democrats' chances as "still alive. But it’s like drawing an inside straight," referring to a low-odds poker hand.

Democrats have picked up more seats this year in the midterms when they were expected to do poorly. Democrats are currently ahead in an Arizona seat where Jevin Hodge is leading Rep. David Schweikert, who has served in Congress since 2011. In Washington state, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is ahead of Republican Joe Kent in a race that became more competitive when the incumbent GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler was defeated in her primary, in part for voting to impeach former President Donald Trump.

Election, Inflation and Don't Forget the Debt Ceiling — Three Questions for Natalie Andrews

Q: High inflation and economic anxiety were key themes during the election. Why weren't Republicans able to engineer more of a "red wave?"

Natalie: The short answer is that it looks like a lot of independent voters swung Democrats' way. So even in areas that had polls that showed Republicans leading or tied—a House district in Rhode Island, for example—the independents swung to Democrats. Voter surveys show that abortion rights was an important issue as was a concern over democracy, which could relate to Republicans' response to the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

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Q: It's looking like the GOP will take a narrow majority in the House and the Senate is still up for grabs. If we end up with a split government, are there areas of economic policy where Congress and the White House will be able to get anything done?

Natalie: Bipartisan agreement is tough these days, but there are sometimes areas where compromise can happen—especially if lawmakers are united in other ways, like geography. For example, we saw more Republicans win seats in New York and New Jersey. Is there a chance they join with Democrats on addressing the cap on deducting state and local taxes that Republicans put in place in their 2017 tax bill? Possibly. Also, several Republicans have talked about wanting to address energy policy in some way, and perhaps they could strike a deal for more oil drilling permits and for more green energy as well.

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Q: When Republicans retook the House during Obama's first term, we ended up with a debt-ceiling showdown. Should we worry about a possible default on U.S. government debt?

Natalie: We will be watching every spending deadline and debt limit date closely. It will likely depend on what tactic Republican leaders take here with a slim majority in the House. Will they work with Democrats and cut off the members on the far right who are willing to risk default? Or will the leaders join with them? Senate control is also unknown but given that legislation needs 60 votes to pass there, enough lawmakers in that chamber are often more open to compromise.

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Natalie reports on the U.S. Congress and national politics from the WSJ's Washington, D.C., bureau. You can follow her on Twitter here and read her articles here.

Democrats Need One More Win to Clinch Senate; Slow March to 218 Continues in House

As the weekend kicks off, Democrats are one win away from securing the 50 seats needed to keep their Senate majority, while prospects for a GOP takeover have dimmed.

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly won his race late Friday, dashing Republican hopes for a pickup in the state. Now, just two Senate races remain: Nevada, which is too close to call; and Georgia, which will be decided in a runoff next month.

In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has a slight lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto – and she has been closing the gap.

Republicans would need to win both Nevada and Georgia to get to the 51 seats to take the majority. Democrats only need one, as they can keep control with just 50 seats; Vice President Kamala Harris would break any ties.

Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.), the head of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, Friday night called the results a “complete disappointment,” as the showing fell short of GOP hopes for picking up multiple Democratic seats.

On the House side, Republicans lead 211 to 201, with the focus now centering on competitive seats in California, Arizona and Oregon among others. Republicans are heavily favored to win the chamber based on the results so far, but analysts say a Democratic win remains plausible.

Video: Where Trump-Backed Election Skeptics Stand in Key Midterm Races

In the key swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania, candidates who made false claims about the 2020 election ran for positions that can exert great influence over election administration. Here’s a look at some of the results of those midterm races, and what it means for future elections.

Stay Informed. Get Ahead.

Why Independent Voters Broke for Democrats in the Midterms

Lisa Ghelfi, a 58-year-old registered Republican in Arizona, voted for Donald Trump for president two years ago but has grown tired of his election-fraud claims. It is the main reason she voted for Democrats for governor, senator, secretary of state and attorney general this fall and plans to change her registration to independent.

“Not allowing the election to be settled, it’s very divisive,” Ms. Ghelfi, a semiretired attorney from Paradise Valley, said of the 2020 race. “I think the election spoke for itself.” She said she voted for Republicans down-ballot who weren’t as vocal about election fraud or as closely tied to Mr. Trump, yet couldn’t support Arizona’s four major Republican candidates because they echoed Mr. Trump’s false claims.

Republicans succeeded in one of their top goals this year: They brought more of their party’s voters to the polls than did Democrats. But in the course of energizing their core voters, Republicans in many states lost voters in the political center—both independents and many Republicans who are uneasy with elements of the party’s focus under Mr. Trump.

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School Board Candidates Who Pushed ‘Parental Rights’ See Mixed Results

Conservative candidates who ran for school boards saying they would change what students learn about race, sex and gender, or who opposed Covid protocols, saw mixed results in Tuesday’s election, according to supporters and a sampling of nationwide results.

Ballotpedia, a nonpartisan election site, analyzed 361 races and found that about 36% of candidates who opposed school Covid protocols, diversity initiatives or the use of gender-neutral learning materials, won their elections.

About 28% of winning candidates in the analysis supported those policies or efforts. That percentage is down from elections in April and November 2021, according to Ballotpedia. About a third of candidates in Tuesday’s election analysis didn’t not take clear positions on these issues, according to the site.

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Mark Kelly Wins in Arizona, Boosting Democrats’ Prospects of Keeping Senate Majority

Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly prevailed in a closely fought re-election bid against Republican challenger Blake Masters, according to the Associated Press, boosting Democrats’ prospects of maintaining their Senate majority.

Mr. Kelly’s victory, which the AP called Friday night, means that Democrats need to win one of two outstanding Senate races to keep their majority, while Republicans must win both races to take control of the chamber.

In the House of Representatives, the GOP remained on track toward winning a narrow majority, outside analysts said, but the final outcome still hinged on races that were too close to call as of Friday, and both parties were girding for results that might not be known for days.

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Democrat Katie Hobbs Leads Kari Lake in Arizona’s Race for Governor

PHOENIX—A Friday evening dump of ballots from the state’s largest county broke in favor of Democrats, giving Secretary of State Katie Hobbs a little more breathing room against her opponent Kari Lake.

Ms. Hobbs now leads by 31,000 votes. The race remains too close to call.

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly was projected to win his re-election, the Associated Press said, after the ballot release Friday.

He leads his opponent Blake Masters, a venture capitalist, by roughly 124,000. The Democratic candidate for secretary of state, Adrian Fontes, the former Maricopa County recorder, also was projected to win after his lead grew to 118,000 votes.

He beat Republican Mark Finchem, a State House member, who supported former President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud in the 2020 election.

Maricopa County officials said there are 265,000-275,000 remaining ballots. Other smaller counties continue to release ballots as they are counted.

Two Arizona House races remained too close to call. In Phoenix, GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who is seeking re-election, is behind his Democratic opponent Jevin Hodge by 4,000 votes. In Tucson, Republican Juan Ciscomani, a former aide to Gov. Doug Ducey, led Democratic Kirsten Engel, a former state senator, by 2,900 votes.

News Doesn't Wait

GOP Sen. Rick Scott Calls Midterm Results ‘Complete Disappointment’

Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.), the head of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, called the party’s showing in the midterms disappointing and said the results suffered from the lack of a clear GOP message to voters.

“As we got closer, the polls got better. But here’s what happened to us: Election Day, our voters didn't show up. … It was a complete disappointment,” he said Friday on Fox News.

“I think we have to reflect on what didn't happen. I think we didn't have enough of a positive message. We said everything about how bad the Biden agenda was,” he said. “We have to have a plan of what we stand for.”

Ahead of the election, Mr. Scott projected the Republicans would end up in the majority with 52 or more seats in the Senate, amid growing GOP confidence due to voters’ worries about inflation and crime – as well as President Biden’s weak approval numbers. Now, the GOP's chances of reaching the 51 seats needed for a majority are hanging by a thread.

After Arizona was called for incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly late Friday, the Senate stands at 49 Democratic wins and 49 Republican wins, with Nevada still to be called and Georgia to be decided in a runoff next month. The Democrats need just 50 seats to control the Senate, as Vice President Kamala Harris would break any ties.

Earlier this year, Mr. Scott released a policy agenda that suggested tax increases for some households, saying all Americans should have “skin in the game.” He later backed away from that proposal.

The tax idea drew a rebuke from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), who also criticized Mr. Scott’s proposal to require programs such as Medicare and Social Security to be reviewed every five years.

Earlier: Rick Scott Revises Tax-Increase Proposal After Facing Criticism

Democrat Adrian Fontes Wins Race for Arizona Secretary of State

Democrat Adrian Fontes was elected as Arizona’s Secretary of State, according to the Associated Press.

He beat Republican Mark Finchem, a State House member, who supported former President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud in the 2020 election.

Mr. Fontes, a former Maricopa County Recorder, succeeds Katie Hobbs, a fellow Democrat who is in a close race for governor.

Mr. Fontes has said he would increase transparency of the office’s work and make it easier for registered voters to vote.

Arizona

Adrian Fontes

wins Secretary of State race

AP Race Calls

Arizona

Mark Kelly

wins Senate race

AP Race Calls

Read earlier posts at WSJ.com

To see new updates, reopen this article. You can add it to your saved stories by tapping 

[arpov-blog-blog]

Michael Moore thinks that despite the polling and the right leaning mainstream media that seems to regurgitate GOP talking points, there will be a 'Blue Tsunami' election day. Here is more on his thinking..."This is today’s reason why we will win in Roevember: in spite of successful Republican attempts to make it harder to vote — especially for students, the poor, working moms, Black and Brown people — we still have more days and ways now to vote than we did before the pandemic. In fact, if you live in Ohio, you can go vote today! In Michigan, we’ve been voting since it was 90 degrees and sweltering in September! In fact, in Michigan and a few other states, you can register to vote right up until what we still call “Election Day!”

Republicans — aka, the anti-Democracy Party of Trump — hate this. Because of Covid, everyone agreed back in 2020 that we had to make it easy for people to vote safely without contracting the virus. Turns out, all kinds of people loved voting in these new ways. 

Despite a deadly pandemic, we not only had the highest voter turnout of the 21st century with 67% of Americans voting, we also shattered the record of nontraditional voting with 69% of those who voted doing so early — either in-person or by mail. And PEW found the country, for once, was in agreement — the majority of both Biden voters (82%) and Trump voters (62%) cast their ballots before election day. And this year, they didn’t want to go back to the old way. 

Yet for the past two years we’ve faced attempts by Republican-led state legislatures to get rid of all the new ways people like to vote. And now there are, in many red states, fewer early voting days, fewer polling places — and in some cities with large populations, there’s only one Dropbox. Ha! 

Why don’t they want to make it easy for the citizens to vote? Because they know and agree with me on what I’ve been telling you since Midterm Tsunami Truth #1 — that there are more, many more, of us than them! And that means they can’t win unless they try to prevent some of the majority — us! —from voting. Take this as a compliment. They are so scared of us and the power of our multi-million majority, they have literally lost their minds. Gone bonkers. Cuckoo for Cocco Puffs crazy!

I mean, in just the past decade, they’ve been forced to endure a Black President, the gays all getting married, and hysterical women now making up the majority of both our medical schools AND law schools! 

“How in sweet Jesus’ name did this happen?! Marijuana everywhere! The churches are empty, young people don’t want to kill deer or ducks, you can’t bum a cigarette anymore because so few people smoke now! Vegans roaming everywhere, pronouns, so many pronouns, you don’t know who is who or what is they! Madness! Quick — close the borders! They’re trying to replace us! Mommy! Mommy! I‘M SCARED!!!”

Phew. It’s exhausting. But just like those who swore they’d never get in a horseless carriage or allow dangerous electrical wires into the walls of their homes, they will sooner or later get used to gays and their wedding cakes, and their very own kids teaching them about race and anti-racism. They will, in the next decade, learn to accept the free universal health care and day care we’re going to give them. They’re going to get a guaranteed vacation by law and paid time off when they have a baby or their parents take ill. These will be bitter pills for them to swallow, but eventually they’ll see that we meant well and we did this for them even though they didn’t vote for our candidates or listen to hip-hop or believe in Beyoncé or Buddha. We’ve always loved Uncle Bob, even though he drives us crazy. 

And on November 8th, their efforts to suppress the majority will fail — but not only because we will rise up, but because in their race to remain in power, they outmaneuvered themselves, and forgot to check their blind spot."

[liberalsarecool]

You don’t have to be a political scientist to understand the Republican Party has found itself on the wrong side of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 85% of Americans now view Russia unfavorably — the country’s worst rating in over three decades — while GOP leader Trump publicly praises Vladimir Putin’s war moves as “smart” and “savvy” and as “genius,”

So why is the press ignoring the huge political blunder by the GOP? Why aren’t elite pundits lining up to warn about midterm implications for Republicans who foolishly blamed Biden last week, instead of Putin.

The strange silence comes as the Beltway media have spent months obsessing over the midterms — but only from the perspective that Democrats might be headed for lopsided losses. That story has been covered without pause for months, even though the midterms aren’t until November.

Every possible angle has been examined, over and over — Covid might hurt Democrats in November. Inflation might hurt Democrats. Education might hurt Democrats. The supply chain might hurt Democrats. There is been no shortage of media jumping off points as the press appears to be giddy over the prospect of GOP wins in November, and wants to spend the entire year detailing possible Democrats election woes.

Why the collective shoulder shrug when it comes to the spectacle of the GOP’s leader praising Putin as he launches the largest European land invasion since World War II? It may be the most astonishing foreign policy position ever taken by a major American political figure, let alone a former President of the United States. It’s not just Trump. In the days leading up to the invasion, Republicans were lining up to state their admiration, if not allegiance, to Putin, a despot whose political opponents are regularly killed, poisoned, and imprisoned.

Forever presenting Republicans as being savvy and outmaneuvering Democrats, the press remains blind to the possibility that the GOP has miscalculated by picking the Kremlin over the White House. Apparently, only Democrats can be in a state of disarray.

As I noted last week, what’s unfolding within the GOP would have been like in 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait if members of the Democratic Party had praised Saddam Hussein. The media condemnations would have rained down without pause, as would have predictions of the party’s electoral ruin

[bubblingoverwithcharm-us]

9 ‘Starter Steps’ to Save America From Socialism

1. Face Reality

Millions of Americans are still in complete denial. Many think the military is secretly in control—that it’s only a matter of time until justice is done and President Donald Trump is restored. There’s a “secret plan”—just “have faith.” The truth is that Trump was outmaneuvered by an alliance of communists, globalists, and even traitors in his own party. The “deep state” is now almost fully in control.

Trump isn’t coming back into office any time before 2024—if we still have meaningful elections by then.

To make sure they can never be voted out of office, the Democrats plan to enfranchise 22 million illegal immigrants, abolish the Electoral College, gain at least four more far-left senators through Puerto Rico and D.C. statehood, and flood the country with tens of millions more refugees and illegal immigrants. They also plan to nationally introduce voting “reforms,” i.e., mass mail-in balloting, abolition of ID requirements, etc., that will guarantee eternal Democratic Party control.

If the Democrats can abolish the Senate filibuster and place at least four more leftist “justices” on the Supreme Court, there’ll be virtually no way to stop any of this if we rely on traditional political methods.

We’re undergoing a Marxist-Leninist revolution driven by China—right now, in real time.

The military can’t save us, nor can Trump. On the contrary, it’s up to patriots to protect Trump and the Armed Services from unrelenting Democrat/communist attacks.

When enough Americans face the unpleasant truth, then, and only then, can we talk about hope.

2. Stop All Violent Rhetoric

Violence will not save America. The harsh reality is that President Barack Obama had eight years to replace patriotic generals with left-leaning political appointees. He did a great job. If violence breaks out (God forbid), the military will stand with the government, not the insurgents.

Does anyone think Russia and China and Cuba and North Korea and Iran would stand idly by while their Democratic friends are being defeated by a patriotic uprising? They would undoubtedly use the opportunity to finish off their “main enemy” once and for all.

Beware of anyone inciting violence online, at a public gathering, or in a private meeting. Distance yourself fast. They will be at best hopelessly naive, at worst government provocateurs.

The left is praying for “right-wing” violence. It will give them an excuse for a massive crackdown on patriotic Americans. This country will be saved peacefully or not at all. If significant violence breaks out, it’s over.

Having said that, the Second Amendment must be preserved at all costs. An armed populace is at least some check on tyranny, even if useless in the face of biological warfare or nuclear attack. Americans should keep their guns and work every day to ensure they never have to use them against their own people.

3. Restore Election Integrity in All Red States

If voter trust isn’t restored within months, the Republican Party is doomed. Democrats will continue to vote. Large numbers of Republican voters will stay home. They won’t trust the elections and will refuse to participate. We’ve already seen this play out in the Georgia Senate elections.

Thirty states are currently led by Republican legislatures. Some are already holding inquiries into fixing deficient electoral procedures. Most will be whitewashes unless the public gets heavily involved. If the resulting recommendations don’t include the elimination of electronic voting machines and heavy penalties for organized voter fraud, it’s likely to be a window-dressing exercise. Be alert.

Patriots must work to restore voting integrity first in the red states, then the red counties of the blue states—then after 2022, the whole nation.

Get involved in this process. It’s a top priority.

4. Close the Republican Primaries Immediately

This should be a no-brainer, but no one is talking about it. Only five U.S. states have truly closed Republican primaries. This means that in most states Democrats and independents (even communists) can vote in Republican primaries—and they do. All over the country, the GOP’s enemies vote in Republican primaries to pick the weakest, most wimpy candidate they can.

That’s why the Republican base is super patriotic but most of their elected representatives in most states vote like “progressive” Democrats.

Close the primaries, Republican patriots. It will transform your party.

5. Organize a Compact of Free States

MAGA folk need to build a “nation within a nation.” This doesn’t mean secession—Russia and China would be quick to exploit such division. What’s needed is a reaffirmation of 10th Amendment rights as already outlined in the U.S. Constitution. The already out-of-control federal government is about to go on a rampage against every form of independence left in the country. Every red state with the courage to do so must immediately begin working toward a formal compact to collectively oppose all forms of federal overreach.

Such a formal alliance should start with Florida and Texas, then grow by inviting Oklahoma, the Plains states, most of the Southern states, New Hampshire, the free Midwestern states, and the Republican-led Northern and Western states.

Such an alliance, stretching from the Florida Keys and the Gulf of Mexico all the way to the Great Lakes and the Canadian border and even Alaska, would bisect the entire country.

Adding the red counties of the blue states such as Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and California, would create a voting and economic bloc that Washington would find exceedingly difficult to challenge.

When the Biden administration recently suggested that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis close all restaurants in his state to slow the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic, the governor politely refused—citing the ineffectiveness and horrendous economic consequences of mass lockdowns.

Biden then reportedly hinted at an unconstitutional ban on air and road travel to and from Florida. This threat might work against Florida alone. It wouldn’t work against Florida plus Texas and Oklahoma and 10 to 25 other states.

The United States is technically a federation of free and independent states. It’s time to fully realize that ideal.

Southern states will soon be reeling under a massive new wave of illegal immigration. The federal government will do nothing to prevent it. Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the free counties of New Mexico and California need to be preparing to defend their borders now. This isn’t an immigration issue that is the constitutional preserve of the federal government—this is a state public welfare issue.

Of course, the Biden-Harris administration plans to pack the Supreme Court with more left-wing justices to make virtually anything they want “constitutional.” But this shouldn’t even need to go to the courts. State governments already have the power under the 10th Amendment to nullify federal overreach; they simply have to band together to put Washington back into its constitutionally tiny box.

The Republic will be saved through the courageous application of the First Amendment (free speech) and the 10th Amendment (state sovereignty).

6. Republic Review

Every free state should immediately embark on the adoption of the “Republic Review” process. There’s a small but growing movement in some Western and Northern states to review their engagement with the federal government to eliminate or nullify all unconstitutional relationships.

Under the Constitution, the states are technically superior to the federal government. They’re sovereign under the “equal footing” doctrine and have the legal power to refuse to engage in unconstitutional programs.

For instance, most states only get about 10 percent of their education budget from the feds—but are almost completely subservient to Department of Education dictates. Why not forgo the measly 10 percent in exchange for a return to local control over all public education? America is losing its youths in public schools. Every patriotic parent knows that.

This would give parents more control over their children’s education and restore citizens’ control over their own government. Is this worth 10 percent of your state’s education budget?

If the free states are willing to stand against federal overreach, they must also be prepared to forgo unconstitutional federal money.

A thorough Republic Review audit would soon return power to the state legislatures—where it belongs.

7. Form a Multi-State ‘America First’ Popular Alliance

The left has “Our Revolution,” a nationwide alliance of 600 groups operating both inside and outside of the Democratic Party. Operated by Democratic Socialists of America and the Communist Party USA, Our Revolution works in the Democratic primaries to elect far-left candidates such as Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) into office. Our Revolution isn’t subject to Democratic Party discipline, but it does get to choose Democratic candidates.

We need an “America First” umbrella group to operate both outside and inside the Republican Party—even possibly within the Democratic Party in some areas.

This organization should be all about pushing the MAGA/America First agenda at every level of government, in every state of the union.

Such a movement could harness the energy of 70 million to 80 million Trump voters without being under Republican Party control.

America First could unite the Tea Party and MAGA movements, grassroots Republicans, patriotic Democrats, and independents to mobilize tens of millions of voters to transform the GOP into the truly populist, patriotic MAGA party it should always have been.

Take that, Mitch McConnell!

Trump is already vetting candidates to stand against Republican House members and senators who betrayed their own base after the 2020 election.

America Firsters should register Republicans by the millions to primary out dozens of Republican sell-outs in 2022. The America First/MAGA movement could “own” every level of the GOP by 2024. The GOP needs the MAGA movement way more than the MAGA movement needs the Republican brand.

Meanwhile, there are almost 70 far-left Democratic members of Congress in red states. Just restoring voter integrity alone could defeat several of them in 2022.

Running MAGA candidates backed by Trump in every one of those races could flip many more. It would be more than feasible to take back the House in 2022 to make Biden a “lame duck” president.

8. Boycott/Buycott Bigtime

Patriots should be abandoning Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc. for more honest platforms. They should also enthusiastically support efforts by DeSantis to heavily fine Big Tech operators who “cancel” patriots. If 25 or 30 free states did the same, Big Tech would soon be little tech.

Patriots need to organize nationwide boycotts of unpatriotic companies and buycotts for loyal American companies like My Pillow and Goya Foods.

Already, local groups are drawing up lists of “unfriendly” local companies and friendly alternatives so patriots can stop supporting their opponents and spend more with their fellow MAGA supporters.

It would also be smart to sequentially target vulnerable unpatriotic companies.

Imagine if 80 million MAGA patriots resolved to begin a nationwide boycott of one such company, starting now. The boycott would go on indefinitely until the target company was broke, or it apologized for “canceling” patriots. If applicable, every MAGA family could simultaneously commit to buying at least one of the canceled person’s products this year.

On April 1, another disloyal company could be targeted, then another on May 1, another on June 1, etc.

After two or three companies had collapsed or apologized, we would soon see large companies start to back away from the “Cancel Culture.”

Patriots have spending power in this country, people. We need to starve our enemies and feed our friends.

Again, patriots need to build a nation within a nation.

It should be also a given that every U.S. patriot boycotts all communist Chinese goods wherever possible. Check those labels! Buying Chinese communist products in 2021 is like buying Nazi products in 1939. It’s immoral and it’s suicidal.

The Chinese Communist Party just crippled the U.S. economy with the CCP virus. Then, pro-China communists instigated mass Black Lives Matter rioting. Then, the same people worked to influence the 2020 election.

It’s about time Americans stop funding their No. 1 enemy—the CCP.

9. Remove Malign Foreign Influence at State Level

DeSantis has announced legislation to massively curtail communist Chinese activity in Florida. The legislation also targets several other enemy states, including Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela—all of which interfere in this country’s internal affairs.

In December 2020, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe revealed that the Chinese Communist Party was conducting a “massive influence campaign” focused on dozens of members of Congress and their aides, including through attempted blackmail and bribery.

Currently, thousands of foreign companies from hostile regimes are buying up land, food production facilities, technical companies, educational facilities, and infrastructure. Tens of thousands of foreign agents are co-opting unpatriotic businessmen, unethical politicians, and sympathetic journalists in the interests of China and other malevolent states.

Under the Biden-Harris administration, nothing will be done to stop these activities at a federal level—but much can still be done by the free states. If every free state cracked down on foreign bribery, corruption, espionage, and subversion, this country would be transformed.

If hundreds of corrupt academics, journalists, businessmen, and politicians (from both parties) were exposed and punished, this country would soon be well on the way to moral, economic, and political recovery.

What Do You Think?

These steps alone won’t save America—but I believe they would be a huge step in the right direction. I will be following up with further suggestions and plans. But for now, I’d love to see your comments, suggestions, and criticisms in the comments section.

Thank you for reading. From a grateful Kiwi, God bless America.

Thanks,

Mike Capeloto

623-826-7108

...

[popolitiko]

Enemies, a Love Story: Inside the 36-year Biden and McConnell Relationship

The two 78-year-old deal-makers have been parties to the collapse of Capitol culture. Now they’ll need to make Washington work again.

By ALEX THOMPSON    01/22/2021

The last time Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell faced off, Biden blinked first.

It was the winter of 2012. Then, as now, Democrats had just won a presidential election, had a narrow Senate majority, and Biden was earnestly proclaiming that the election would break the Republican “fever” of opposing the Democratic agenda.

The first test came immediately.

A cascade of deadlines on December 31, 2012, set up a world economy-level battle known as the “fiscal cliff.” Without any action by Congress, the next year would bring about $700 billion in combined tax hikes and budget cuts—extreme austerity measures that could cripple the recovering economy.

The Democratic Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, was willing to go over the cliff if McConnell didn’t agree to tax increases for the highest earners, one of Democrats’ signature campaign promises. Reid reasoned that if taxes were to rise automatically, McConnell would have to negotiate from a weakened position. Obama and Biden, however, feared an adverse reaction from the markets and a potential recession.

In a move that angered Reid, Biden took over the negotiations with Obama’s blessing. The outcome—a continuation of the Bush-era tax cuts with a relatively modest hike of 1.8 percent, weighted toward higher earners—was the kind of deal both negotiators could celebrate.

McConnell did, crowing to his fellow Republicans that “in a government controlled two-thirds by the Democrats, we got permanency for 99 percent of the Bush tax cuts.”

Biden did, boasting in a June 2019 debate that “I got Mitch McConnell to raise taxes $600 billion by raising the top rate.”

But many Democrats weren’t celebrating at all and still haven’t gotten over it. At the same 2019 debate, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado called it “a complete victory for the Tea Party. It extended the Bush tax cuts permanently. The Democratic Party had been running against that for 10 years.”

Now, eight years later, Biden and McConnell are entering a new phase of their 36-year relationship, and the Democratic left fears a repeat of the 2012 dynamic. Once again, their party wields most of the levers of government. They control the White House and Senate, albeit by the slimmest possible margin. Unlike 2012, they have a slim majority in the House, as well. Nonetheless, they seem destined to be bargaining for half a loaf, at best, for anything that requires 60 votes in the Senate, the level necessary to defeat a filibuster.

That’s because between them and their agenda stands McConnell, an acknowledged master of Senate procedures, famed for his ability to block presidential agendas.

Even as McConnell has seen some of his power ebb away—losing his Senate majority on the clay fields of Georgia, breaking with Donald Trump in the final days of his presidency—he still finds himself an essential figure in Biden’s Washington.

He is the key to the new president’s ability to turn the page from the Trump years. After years of legislative stasis, Biden is betting big that the Senate can return to the deal-making body he and McConnell came of age in. He hopes that he and his 2012 negotiating partner can plumb their shared history to locate a workable middle in a hyperpolarized time.

That’s a special challenge for McConnell, who is already at odds with the Trumpian wing of the Republican Party after defying Trump on Biden’s victory and even privately being open to impeaching him. Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Tuesday called for a new leader in the Senate and said McConnell had revealed himself to be the “king of the establishment Republicans.”

Even if McConnell wanted to cut deals with Biden, any compromise could further undermine his and his members’ position with the Republican base ahead of the 2022 midterms and the next presidential election. Several Republican senators eyeing their own runs in 2024 are already signaling unapologetic opposition to the entire Biden agenda.

Meanwhile, Biden’s allies are loudly insisting that finding common ground is possible and exactly what the American people want after the past decade of partisan warfare. The Biden team is aware that many in their own party are rolling their eyes but argue that it’s just the latest instance of the Democratic establishment underestimating Joe Biden.

“People said it was naive, you know, 18, 19 months ago as he was running, he was criticized for it. But you know what? It's one of the reasons he won,” said a senior Biden White House adviser. Other Biden allies argue that voters will punish Republicans in 2022 if they look like they are being obstructionist in the middle of a crisis.

“A majority of senators have never served in a functional Senate,” said Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, a close Biden ally and friend. “This is the best chance the Senate will have in our lifetimes to get more functional, because we have an incoming president who knows and respects the Senate.”

But what constitutes functionality may be considerably less than Biden’s ambitious campaign promises.

“There are many examples of things that are just really beyond partisanship,” the senior adviser said. Asked for examples, the adviser pointed to second-tier issues like infrastructure spending and broadband internet access.

Jason Furman, who chaired President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers and is an occasional outside adviser to the Biden team, lowered expectations. “I’m not sure they can accomplish big things together, [but] I do think they can work together to keep the wheels on the bus,” he said.

McConnell, Furman believes, could be a willing partner in the basics—getting budgets passed in a timely manner, not playing chicken with the debt ceiling, and other incremental, good government measures.

Most skeptical of all is Obama himself, no fan of McConnell and someone who has chafed at the idea that his vice president might be able to achieve things that he himself could not.

“I’m enjoying reading now about how Joe Biden and Mitch have been friends for a long time,” the former president quipped to the Atlantic shortly after the 2020 election. “They’ve known each other for a long time.”

Washington friends aren’t normal friends. While some outliers like Ted Kennedy or John McCain genuinely relished their personal relationships across the aisle, the more enduring bond between long-serving senators is having belonged to such an exclusive club, and respect for its unwritten rules. Among these institutionalists, outsiders just don’t get it, whether they’re an earnest reformer like Obama or an imperious novice like Trump.

Biden, who joined the Senate in 1973, won his third term in the same year a former Senate staffer named Mitch McConnell won his first.

Like Biden, who began his Senate career by surprising the pundits with a razor-thin, upset win over two-term Republican Sen. J. Caleb Boggs, McConnell surprised much of the political world by edging out two-term Democrat Walter “Dee” Huddleston in the 1984 Senate race in Kentucky.

Despite being born nine months apart and sharing an interest in Senate history, the two men weren’t initially close during the 24 years they overlapped in the chamber, according to aides to both men.

“They are both good politicians, but they couldn't be more different as politicians and that was from the get go,” said Janet Mullins Grissom, who managed McConnell’s 1984 race against Huddleston and was one of the Senate’s first female chiefs of staff when McConnell appointed her in 1985.

Biden was loquacious, while McConnell was a man of few words. Biden had the grip and grin of a salesman, while McConnell displayed a tactician’s discipline climbing up the leadership ladder. Biden was a people pleaser, while McConnell at times reveled in criticism, even decorating an entire wall of his office with negative newspaper cartoons about himself.

In high school and college, Biden had been a popular kid, a jock and senior class president. McConnell was more of a nerd—he wore an “I Like Ike” button in his 5th-grade school picture—but with an enormous drive to figure out how to win over his peers in elections.

When facing off against a popular kid to be his school’s senior-class president, McConnell outmaneuvered him by courting the endorsement of other popular students. “I was prepared to ask for their vote using the only tool in my arsenal, the one thing teenagers most desire. Flattery,” he wrote in his memoir.

But there are some similarities, too.

Both have clan loyalties. Biden’s are mainly to members of his family, such as his sister Val, who managed all seven of his political campaigns before 2020. In later years, his sons joined his inner circle, as well, along with longtime aides like Ted Kaufman and Mike Donilon.

McConnell regards his political team as family. “He has a posse,” said Mullins Grissom. “It’s like the opposite of Donald Trump, but I think that that speaks to the person, and that he is an incredibly, incredibly loyal person.” Aides say that, for decades after they have left his office, they still refer to him as “boss.” And while McConnell’s daughters seem to be liberals like their mother and shun his politics, his second wife, two-time GOP Cabinet member Elaine Chao, is a Washington power broker and a political partner as well as a romantic one.

“When I picked Elaine up at her apartment at the Watergate, I was taken by her beauty, and proud to have her on my arm that evening,” McConnell wrote of their first date, a party for then-Vice President George H.W. Bush hosted by Saudi Arabia’s ambassador, Prince Bandar bin Sultan.

Former aides note that Biden and McConnell are also similar in that they are ideologically flexible: Each started off as a moderate and then moved left and right with their parties.

KEEP READING.....

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/22/joe-biden-mitch-mcconnell-relationship-460385?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[phroyd]

THE RESTAURANT LOBBY IS making a masked pitch to kill Initiative 77, a ballot measure designed to gradually raise the minimum wage in Washington, D.C., for bartenders, waitstaff, and other “tipped” employees, to $15 an hour by 2025.

The current federal floor for “tipped” workers — defined as employees who receive at least $30 a month in tips — is $2.13 per hour. Tipping, originally embraced by Reconstruction-era Americans as a way to avoid paying salaries to newly freed slaves, now supports a two-tiered system in which tipped workers experience some of the lowest pay of any industry. (Waitresses are twice as likely to use food stamps than the general population).

But you’d never glean any of that from the restaurant lobby’s pitch. In fact, the group opposing the minimum wage calls itself “Save Our Tips – No on 77″ and has campaigned with left-leaning voters in mind. On Twitter, the Save Our Tips campaign claims that they oppose President Donald Trump, support the Democratic resistance, and routinely suggests that the group exists primarily to represent the interests of employees. The campaign recently tweeted: “We can all agree with #DumpTrump. But ‘Vote No’ June 19th.”

But in contrast with the goals of most voters, regardless of political orientation, if Initiative 77 fails, the current law will cap the D.C. tipped minimum at $3.33, to increase only to $5 by 2020. (The non-tipped minimum wage is $12.50 an hour, rising to $15 by 2020.) By cloaking its opposition to the wage increase in lefty rhetoric, the campaign hopes it can trick D.C.’s overwhelmingly liberal voter base into voting down a progressive policy.

Disclosures show that the Save Our Tips campaign is managed in part by Lincoln Strategy Group, a company that did $600,000 worth of work in 2016 canvassing for the Trump presidential campaign. Lincoln Strategy Group is a firm co-founded and currently managed by Nathan Sproul, a GOP consultant and former executive director of the Arizona Christian Coalition, who has been caught up in scandals for well over a decade.

In 2004, Sproul’s company, Strategic Allied Consulting, was accused of destroying voter registration forms belonging to Democratic voters in various states across the country. And in 2012, a worker for another Sproul-owned company was caught dumping Democratic voter registration forms into a recycling bin while on retainer for the Republican Party of Virginia.

In 2016, Sproul was accused of mobilizing a fake grassroots effort to undermine the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency charged with protecting consumers from exploitation by financial companies. Sproul’s faux consumer group Protect America’s Consumers paid for advertisements attacking the agency, using out-of-context critiques of discreet aspects of the agency from Democrats to give the impression of bipartisan opposition to the agency as a whole.

The effort to defeat Initiative 77 is similarly deceptive. Misleadingly named Save Our Tips – No on 77, the campaign has claimed that any hike in the tipped minimum wage will force restaurants to close and put employees out of work. But that hasn’t been the outcome in California, Alaska, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Minnesota — states that have abolished the tipped minimum wage and allowed restaurant workers to collect wages as high as $15. A spate of restaurants in the Bay Area of California has indeed closed since minimum-wage rules have been implemented, but observers note that businesses are facing a range of challenges, particularly as rising housing prices have driven out the kind of workers who make up a waitstaff. San Francisco restaurant managers are having a hard time finding and retaining staff, which, according to the law of supply and demand, means that wages are still too low, not too high.

The No on 77 campaign has underscored the claim that the initiative will hurt restaurant workers. A low, sub-minimum tipped wage, they argue, is crucial to maintain the practice of tipping. “Restaurant workers would lose out on the tips that make it possible for them to live and work in the city if Initiative #77 passed,” the campaign tweeted. Despite the claim, cities that have abolished the tipped minimum in favor of a higher wage have continued to tip. In San Francisco, where the minimum for all hourly workers, including bartenders and servers, is currently $14 an hour (and will become $15 an hour on July 1), diners pay an average 19 percent tip rate, according to the Golden Gate Restaurant Association. The tipping rate in D.C. is 14.8 percent.

Most of the restaurants and associations funding the campaign come from prosperous northwest D.C. and the capital’s upscale suburbs. The K Street-based Restaurant Association Metropolitan Washington gave $15,000 toward the campaign; Clyde’s Restaurant based in Georgetown gave $5,000.

On behalf of restaurant employees, the group that organized Initiative 77 is the Restaurant Opportunities Center, a worker advocacy nonprofit. The group has campaigned against exploitative work conditions, including wage theft and sexual harassment on the job.

But in many ways, the ROC appears to be outmaneuvered. Prominent local politicians and celebrity chefs have expressed opposition to Initiative 77, while “Save Our Tips” signs against the measure are now a ubiquitous presence in restaurants and bars across the city.

Diana Ramirez, an organizer with ROC who is working on the Initiative 77 campaign, told The Intercept that many workers feel intimidated by the campaign that D.C. restaurants are waging and are afraid to speak up in support of it. “The restaurants are pushing this and fearmongering their employees. They’re holding captive audience meetings, pre-shift, on the clock, telling their employees, ‘This is going to hurt you,'” she said.

THE DISCLOSURES ALSO show that national restaurant interests representing major fast food chains are helping to drive the debate: The National Restaurant Association is by far the largest donor to the No on 77 campaign, having provided $25,000 of the $58,550 raised by the campaign to date.

The NRA is a trade association that represents corporate interests, including McDonald’s Corporation, Yum! Brands, Burger King Corporation, Darden Restaurants, and other multinational restaurant chains. As part of its nationwide advocacy efforts, the NRA typically opposes any sort of minimum-wage increase, as well as any effort to require paid sick time or parental leave. It spends as much as $98 million a year to advance the industry’s political agenda.

Notably, the NRA funded the lobbying group that won a carve-out against tipped workers in 1996, ensuring that restaurant workers were exempted from the increase in the federal minimum wage. The group at the time was led by Herman Cain.

While opposing efforts to raise the wages of the nation’s lowest-paid employees, the NRA paid its CEO, Dawn Sweeney, more than $3.8 million in total compensation, including a bonus of $1.7 million. If her total compensation were computed hourly, it would amount to $1,867.88 per hour (as of four years ago) — a sum which would take a minimum-wage worker 247 hours, or six weeks of full-time work, to earn.

While the NRA and some D.C. restaurants have launched their own local campaign against Initiative 77, the business-backed Employment Policies Institute think tank set up a website seeking to debunk the ROC’s claim about the tipped credit.

The Employment Policy Institute recently posted a mailer on its website, suggesting that it is directly targeting voters to persuade them to oppose Initiative 77. The think tank is a project of Rick Berman, a corporate lobbyist skilled in engineering campaigns against public interest groups (one of his frequent targets is the Humane Society) and organized labor.

Jared Bernstein, an economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and a former adviser to former Vice President Joe Biden, doesn’t buy the apocalyptic vision being offered by the restaurant lobby about Initiative 77.

“In the eight states that have abolished sub-minimums, we haven’t seen anything like the claims that the opposition puts forth,” he told The Intercept. In a recent op-ed in the Washington Post, he noted that restaurant workers in these eight states earn around 20 percent more than workers in states where the tipped wage is the federal minimum of $2.13 an hour.

Opponents of Initiative 77 claim that customers will reduce tips if restaurants are compensating tipped workers with the full minimum wage. Bernstein said he hasn’t seen any comprehensive research on tipping behavior in jurisdictions that have eliminated the tipped wage, but that overall data on income and poverty in those places shows that workers are not being hurt.

“What we do have are studies of poverty rates, income, and wages,” he said. “If tipping were negatively effected as opponents say, we wouldn’t be seeing the results we’re seeing on the poverty, wage side.”

Read On ...

Phroyd

[newsfact]

DOJ will ask Supreme Court to halt Texas abortion law

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) – The Biden administration said Friday it will turn next to the U.S. Supreme Court in another attempt to halt a Texas law that has banned most abortions since September. 

It comes as the Texas clinics are running out of avenues to stop the GOP-engineered law that bans abortions once cardiac activity is detected, which is usually around six weeks. It amounts to the nation’s biggest curb to abortion in nearly 50 years.

The latest defeat for clinics came Thursday night when a federal appeals panel in New Orleans, in a 2-1 decision, allowed the restrictions to remain in place for a third time in the last several weeks alone. 

Justice Department spokesman Anthony Coley said the federal government will now ask the Supreme Court to reverse that decision but did not say how quickly.

5TH CIRCUIT COURT GRANTS A STAY, ALLOWS TEXAS ABORTION BILL TO GO INTO EFFECT

The Biden administration was under pressure from abortion rights supporters to go to the Supreme Court even before the announcement. The court already once allowed the restrictions to take effect, but did so without ruling on the law’s constitutionality. 

Lab technician Stephannie Chaffee prepares materials that will be used to test women’s blood ahead of the arrival of patients, Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021, at Hope Medical Group for Women in Shreveport, La. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Since the law took effect Sept. 1, Texas women have sought out abortion clinics in neighboring states, some driving hours through the middle of the night and including patients as young as 12 years old. The law makes no exception for cases of rape or incest.

The Texas Attorney General’s Office called the decision Thursday night by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals a “testament that we are on the right side of the law and life.” 

A 1992 decision by the Supreme Court prevented states from banning abortion before viability, the point at which a fetus can survive outside the womb, around 24 weeks of pregnancy. But Texas’ version has outmaneuvered courts so far due to the fact that it offloads enforcement to private citizens. Anyone who brings a successful lawsuit against an abortion provider for violating the law is entitled to claim at least $10,000 in damages, which the Biden administration says amounts to a bounty.

Only once has a court moved to put the restrictions on hold — and that order only stood for 48 hours.

SEN. JOSH HAWLEY TELLS RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES NATION NEEDS A ‘BAPTISM OF COURAGE’

During that brief window, some Texas clinics rushed to perform abortions on patients past six weeks, but many more appointments were canceled after the 5th Circuit moved to swiftly reinstate the law last week. Texas had roughly two dozen abortion clinics before the law took effect, and operators have said some may be forced to close if the restrictions stay in place for much longer.

Already the stakes are high in the coming months over the future of abortion rights in the U.S. In December, the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court will hear Mississippi’s bid to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that guarantees a woman’s right to an abortion.

Texas Right to Life, the state’s largest anti-abortion group, set up a tip line to receive allegations against abortion providers but has not filed any lawsuits. Kimberlyn Schwartz, a spokeswoman, said Thursday the group expected the Biden administration to go to the Supreme Court next and was “confident Texas will ultimately defeat these attacks on our life-saving efforts.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

On Wednesday, 18 state attorneys generals from mostly GOP-controlled states threw new support behind the Texas law, urging the court to let the restrictions stand while accusing the federal government of overstepping in bringing the challenge in the first place. Last month, more than 20 other states, mostly run by Democrats, had urged the lower court to throw out the law.

U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland has called the law “clearly unconstitutional” and warned that it could become a model elsewhere in the country unless it’s struck down.

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MIDTERMS 2022

Latest news & analysis

● LIVE COVERAGE

JERRY SEIB

● LIVE COVERAGE

Election Results 2022 Live: Democrats Get Boost for Senate Control; GOP Inches Closer to Narrow House Majority

Full coverage of the midterm elections.

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Latest Developments, Analysis and Results

Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was re-elected to a second term representing Nevada, giving Democrats continued control of the chamber and disappointing Republicans who believed they had a strong chance to seize the majority.

Sen. Mark Kelly re-election win in Arizona bolstered Democrats’ prospects of keeping the Senate. Republicans remained on track to take the House majority, but their expected gains had narrowed significantly. Nevada's key Senate race remained too close to call with Democrats one seat away from control. Arizona's governor race remained tight as well.

More:

Why Independent Voters Broke for Democrats

Graphics: Midterms Point to Closely Divided House

How Different Groups Voted

Democrats Keep Senate Majority as Catherine Cortez Masto Wins Re-Election in Nevada

Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was re-elected to a second term representing Nevada in the U.S. Senate, giving Democrats continued control of the chamber and disappointing Republicans who believed they had a strong chance to seize the majority in the midterm elections

Ms. Cortez Masto, 58 years old, had 48.7% of the votes with 97% counted when the Associated Press called the race, compared with 48.2% for Republican Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general. Her win gives Democrats control of 50 seats, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties, even without a result yet from the Dec. 6 Senate runoff in Georgia.

Democrats will now retain the power to confirm Mr. Biden’s nominees without help from the GOP, extending a string of judicial confirmations that he pushed through over the past two years. Senate control will also allow Democrats to more easily confirm any new executive-branch appointees, including cabinet officials, who may have faced long odds if Republicans took control.

Republicans had banked on a late breaking “red wave” to catapult them to a majority of at least a few seats in the Senate, which has stood at 50-50 for the past two years. Ahead of Election Day, nonpartisan analysts had favored Republicans to win back the House, while considering Senate control a tossup.

It was one of four Senate seats rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, an independent arbiter of elections. Democrats had prioritized defending the seat, which was widely considered to be the Republicans’ best chance to flip a Democratic-held Senate seat and help deliver the chamber into GOP control.

Democrats had jumped into the race early to paint the vastly underfunded Mr. Laxalt as a corrupt politician more interested in serving his own interests than those of the state. They hit him for his pro-life stance, asserting against his denials that he would vote for a nationwide abortion ban, for his personal investments in oil and drug companies, and for his efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election results.

That was just enough to outmaneuver Republicans, who had tried to benefit from a political environment in which voters have been dissatisfied with high inflation and crime. Over the past year, Nevada has had some of the highest gasoline prices in the nation, based on data from the American Automobile Association, and sharpest rental increases, according to research firm HelpAdvisor. Republicans tied her to the price increases by pointing to her vote for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package shortly after President Biden took office.

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Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto

wins Senate race

AP Race Calls

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Wins in Washington District Carried by Trump in 2020

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican Joe Kent, the Associated Press said late Saturday, flipping a House seat in Washington state previously held by a Republican and chalking up one of the biggest upsets of the cycle.

With 70% of the estimated vote counted, Ms. Gluesenkamp Perez had 50.8% to Mr. Kent’s 49.2%.

The win gives Democrats a boost in their narrow but still possible path to retaining control of the House. Heading into the midterms, nonpartisan analysis had favored Republicans to hold Washington’s 3rd District, where voters had picked former President Donald Trump over President Biden in the 2020 presidential election by 4 percentage points.

The race became more competitive when the incumbent GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler was defeated in her primary by Mr. Kent, in part for voting to impeach Mr. Trump.

Dave Wasserman of race analyst Cook Political Report called it a "big upset," saying it is the only race that Cook ranked "lean" or "likely" Republican or Democrat to be won by the other party so far.

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Washington 3rd District

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

wins House race

AP Race Calls

Smart. Compelling. Essential.

Kari Lake - Katie Hobbs Race Remains Tight for Arizona Governor After New Batch of Votes

A new batch of votes released in Arizona's most populous county saw Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor, close the gap slightly with her Democratic opponent Katie Hobbs. However, if Ms. Lake is going to win she will need to do better in remaining batches.

Ms. Lake won the roughly 85,000 votes released Saturday 52% to 48%, however in order to overtake Ms. Hobbs she will need to draw in higher percentages in the remaining 190,000 ballots that still need to be tabulated.

Ms. Hobbs currently leads Ms. Lake by 35,000 votes.

All eyes are on Maricopa County as Arizona continues to tally ballots in the only remaining competitive governors' race in the country. Ms. Lake is seen as the most prominent ally this election of former president Donald Trump and surrogate for his false claims of election fraud.

On Friday, the Associated Press projected Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly would win reelection against Blake Masters, and former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes was projected to beat state Rep. Mark Finchem, both of whom are allies of Mr. Trump.

Bill Gates, the Republican chair of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, said on CNN Saturday night nearly all of the remaining ballots are mail-in ballots that were dropped off or arrived on Election Day.

Republicans had been hopeful that those ballots would favor them because their candidates had urged people to wait until Election Day to vote. So far, the ballots have not been as friendly to Republicans as ballots cast in person on Election Day. Ballots that were mailed before Election Day have favored Democrats.

Two Arizona House seats also remain too close to call.

Senate Majority Rests on Nevada, Georgia as Results Trickle In

WASHINGTON—The battle over party control of both chambers of Congress was extremely tight on Saturday as more ballots were counted and the focus turned to races in the Western U.S. that will determine the agenda in Washington for the next two years.

Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly won a hard-fought re-election bid against Republican challenger Blake Masters, according to the Associated Press call on Friday night, boosting Democrats’ prospects of maintaining their Senate majority.

With the Arizona race called, Democrats have 49 seats and need to win one of two outstanding Senate races in Nevada and Georgia to keep their majority. Republicans, with 49 seats, must win both races to take control of the chamber, because the Democratic Party controls the White House and the vice president casts a tiebreaking vote.

Nevada Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto trailed GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by fewer than a thousand votes Saturday as the state continued counting ballots.

Pivotal results are expected later Saturday from Nevada’s Clark County, the state’s most populous. Joe Gloria, the county’s registrar of voters, told reporters that he expected to have within hours the tallies of all the mail-in ballots received by Saturday’s deadline. He said that number totaled more than 22,000.

Mr. Laxalt suggested that those results could mean his defeat. “Multiple days in a row, the mostly mail in ballots counted continue to break in higher DEM margins than we calculated,” he said on Twitter. “This has narrowed our victory window. The race will come down to 20-30k Election Day Clark drop off ballots.”

In addition, the county must process provisional ballots and ballots with problems like missing signatures that can be “cured” — fixed by voters — or discarded. The deadline for correcting a challenged ballot is Monday.

Read the full article

Lauren Boebert's Lead Over Democrat Adam Frisch Widens in Colorado House Race

First-term Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert’s lead over Democratic challenger Adam Frisch has widened in her surprisingly tight Colorado House race.

With about 99% of the vote counted as of Friday evening, Ms. Boebert had 50.2% of the vote to 49.8% for Mr. Frisch, and her lead had grown to more than 1,100 votes from less than 900 votes that morning. The Associated Press has not made a call in the race.

Colorado state election rules require an automatic recount when a candidate wins by 0.5% or less of the winner's total vote count.

The race’s competitiveness caught many political analysts off guard. No mainstream polling group ever surveyed voters in the race, a sign that it was thought unlikely to be close.

Ms. Boebert, a Republican and gun rights activist, was elected to represent Colorado’s third congressional district in 2020. The district runs along the western side of the state, encompassing cities such as Grand Junction and Pueblo. Voters have favored Republican presidential candidates for at least two decades.

In her two short years on the Hill, Ms. Boebert has made headlines as a House Freedom Caucus member aligned with former President Donald Trump. She has challenged Republican leadership at times and become a frequent critic of the Biden administration’s military vaccine mandates.

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Rocket Man Mark Kelly Still Standing in Arizona

Mark Kelly, an astronaut turned Arizona Democratic Senator, said he was at the Elton John concert when he learned he had won his competitive Senate race against Republican Blake Masters. The Associated Press called it for Mr. Kelly on Friday evening.

Speaking to supporters in Phoenix, he celebrated winning a six-year term. "It was a great night last night -- Gabby and I were at the Elton John concert," he said with a smile.

Mr. Kelly thanked Arizona election officials and supporters. He also said he never forgets that he filled the seat vacated by the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, a Republican.

"When we come together and focus on solutions, we can make progress," he said.

Mr. Masters said on Twitter he wouldn’t concede until all ballots were tallied, adding that “voters decide, not the media; let’s count the votes.”

Trusted Insights. Global Impact.

Democrats Have Very Narrow Path to a House Majority

Republicans officially have 211 seats and Democrats have 201, according to AP calls. Democrats are expected to prevail in several more seats, but the odds appear slim that they can hold onto the 218 needed for the majority.

Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said Saturday he sees about six genuine toss-up House races where the expected winner is unclear. Democrats need to win all of those, as well as several races where he sees them having an advantage to keep the majority. Also possible is that Republicans end up close to Democrats’ current margin in the House, which stands at 220-212, with three absences.

Mr. Wasserman identified 11 seats in California that were unresolved. Of those, Cook Political Report rated the GOP as favored in four, Democrats favored in three, and four as tossups.

On Thursday, President Biden termed the Democrats' chances as "still alive. But it’s like drawing an inside straight," referring to a low-odds poker hand.

Democrats have picked up more seats this year in the midterms when they were expected to do poorly. Democrats are currently ahead in an Arizona seat where Jevin Hodge is leading Rep. David Schweikert, who has served in Congress since 2011. In Washington state, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is ahead of Republican Joe Kent in a race that became more competitive when the incumbent GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler was defeated in her primary, in part for voting to impeach former President Donald Trump.

Election, Inflation and Don't Forget the Debt Ceiling — Three Questions for Natalie Andrews

Q: High inflation and economic anxiety were key themes during the election. Why weren't Republicans able to engineer more of a "red wave?"

Natalie: The short answer is that it looks like a lot of independent voters swung Democrats' way. So even in areas that had polls that showed Republicans leading or tied—a House district in Rhode Island, for example—the independents swung to Democrats. Voter surveys show that abortion rights was an important issue as was a concern over democracy, which could relate to Republicans' response to the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

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Q: It's looking like the GOP will take a narrow majority in the House and the Senate is still up for grabs. If we end up with a split government, are there areas of economic policy where Congress and the White House will be able to get anything done?

Natalie: Bipartisan agreement is tough these days, but there are sometimes areas where compromise can happen—especially if lawmakers are united in other ways, like geography. For example, we saw more Republicans win seats in New York and New Jersey. Is there a chance they join with Democrats on addressing the cap on deducting state and local taxes that Republicans put in place in their 2017 tax bill? Possibly. Also, several Republicans have talked about wanting to address energy policy in some way, and perhaps they could strike a deal for more oil drilling permits and for more green energy as well.

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Q: When Republicans retook the House during Obama's first term, we ended up with a debt-ceiling showdown. Should we worry about a possible default on U.S. government debt?

Natalie: We will be watching every spending deadline and debt limit date closely. It will likely depend on what tactic Republican leaders take here with a slim majority in the House. Will they work with Democrats and cut off the members on the far right who are willing to risk default? Or will the leaders join with them? Senate control is also unknown but given that legislation needs 60 votes to pass there, enough lawmakers in that chamber are often more open to compromise.

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Natalie reports on the U.S. Congress and national politics from the WSJ's Washington, D.C., bureau. You can follow her on Twitter here and read her articles here.

Democrats Need One More Win to Clinch Senate; Slow March to 218 Continues in House

As the weekend kicks off, Democrats are one win away from securing the 50 seats needed to keep their Senate majority, while prospects for a GOP takeover have dimmed.

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly won his race late Friday, dashing Republican hopes for a pickup in the state. Now, just two Senate races remain: Nevada, which is too close to call; and Georgia, which will be decided in a runoff next month.

In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has a slight lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto – and she has been closing the gap.

Republicans would need to win both Nevada and Georgia to get to the 51 seats to take the majority. Democrats only need one, as they can keep control with just 50 seats; Vice President Kamala Harris would break any ties.

Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.), the head of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, Friday night called the results a “complete disappointment,” as the showing fell short of GOP hopes for picking up multiple Democratic seats.

On the House side, Republicans lead 211 to 201, with the focus now centering on competitive seats in California, Arizona and Oregon among others. Republicans are heavily favored to win the chamber based on the results so far, but analysts say a Democratic win remains plausible.

Video: Where Trump-Backed Election Skeptics Stand in Key Midterm Races

In the key swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania, candidates who made false claims about the 2020 election ran for positions that can exert great influence over election administration. Here’s a look at some of the results of those midterm races, and what it means for future elections.

Stay Informed. Get Ahead.

Why Independent Voters Broke for Democrats in the Midterms

Lisa Ghelfi, a 58-year-old registered Republican in Arizona, voted for Donald Trump for president two years ago but has grown tired of his election-fraud claims. It is the main reason she voted for Democrats for governor, senator, secretary of state and attorney general this fall and plans to change her registration to independent.

“Not allowing the election to be settled, it’s very divisive,” Ms. Ghelfi, a semiretired attorney from Paradise Valley, said of the 2020 race. “I think the election spoke for itself.” She said she voted for Republicans down-ballot who weren’t as vocal about election fraud or as closely tied to Mr. Trump, yet couldn’t support Arizona’s four major Republican candidates because they echoed Mr. Trump’s false claims.

Republicans succeeded in one of their top goals this year: They brought more of their party’s voters to the polls than did Democrats. But in the course of energizing their core voters, Republicans in many states lost voters in the political center—both independents and many Republicans who are uneasy with elements of the party’s focus under Mr. Trump.

Read the full article

School Board Candidates Who Pushed ‘Parental Rights’ See Mixed Results

Conservative candidates who ran for school boards saying they would change what students learn about race, sex and gender, or who opposed Covid protocols, saw mixed results in Tuesday’s election, according to supporters and a sampling of nationwide results.

Ballotpedia, a nonpartisan election site, analyzed 361 races and found that about 36% of candidates who opposed school Covid protocols, diversity initiatives or the use of gender-neutral learning materials, won their elections.

About 28% of winning candidates in the analysis supported those policies or efforts. That percentage is down from elections in April and November 2021, according to Ballotpedia. About a third of candidates in Tuesday’s election analysis didn’t not take clear positions on these issues, according to the site.

Read the full article

Mark Kelly Wins in Arizona, Boosting Democrats’ Prospects of Keeping Senate Majority

Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly prevailed in a closely fought re-election bid against Republican challenger Blake Masters, according to the Associated Press, boosting Democrats’ prospects of maintaining their Senate majority.

Mr. Kelly’s victory, which the AP called Friday night, means that Democrats need to win one of two outstanding Senate races to keep their majority, while Republicans must win both races to take control of the chamber. 

In the House of Representatives, the GOP remained on track toward winning a narrow majority, outside analysts said, but the final outcome still hinged on races that were too close to call as of Friday, and both parties were girding for results that might not be known for days.

Read the full article

Democrat Katie Hobbs Leads Kari Lake in Arizona’s Race for Governor

PHOENIX—A Friday evening dump of ballots from the state’s largest county broke in favor of Democrats, giving Secretary of State Katie Hobbs a little more breathing room against her opponent Kari Lake.

Ms. Hobbs now leads by 31,000 votes. The race remains too close to call.

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly was projected to win his re-election, the Associated Press said, after the ballot release Friday.

He leads his opponent Blake Masters, a venture capitalist, by roughly 124,000. The Democratic candidate for secretary of state, Adrian Fontes, the former Maricopa County recorder, also was projected to win after his lead grew to 118,000 votes.

He beat Republican Mark Finchem, a State House member, who supported former President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud in the 2020 election.

Maricopa County officials said there are 265,000-275,000 remaining ballots. Other smaller counties continue to release ballots as they are counted.

Two Arizona House races remained too close to call. In Phoenix, GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who is seeking re-election, is behind his Democratic opponent Jevin Hodge by 4,000 votes. In Tucson, Republican Juan Ciscomani, a former aide to Gov. Doug Ducey, led Democratic Kirsten Engel, a former state senator, by 2,900 votes.

News Doesn't Wait

GOP Sen. Rick Scott Calls Midterm Results ‘Complete Disappointment’

Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.), the head of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, called the party’s showing in the midterms disappointing and said the results suffered from the lack of a clear GOP message to voters.

“As we got closer, the polls got better. But here’s what happened to us: Election Day, our voters didn't show up. … It was a complete disappointment,” he said Friday on Fox News.

“I think we have to reflect on what didn't happen. I think we didn't have enough of a positive message. We said everything about how bad the Biden agenda was,” he said. “We have to have a plan of what we stand for.”

Ahead of the election, Mr. Scott projected the Republicans would end up in the majority with 52 or more seats in the Senate, amid growing GOP confidence due to voters’ worries about inflation and crime – as well as President Biden’s weak approval numbers. Now, the GOP's chances of reaching the 51 seats needed for a majority are hanging by a thread.

After Arizona was called for incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly late Friday, the Senate stands at 49 Democratic wins and 49 Republican wins, with Nevada still to be called and Georgia to be decided in a runoff next month. The Democrats need just 50 seats to control the Senate, as Vice President Kamala Harris would break any ties.

Earlier this year, Mr. Scott released a policy agenda that suggested tax increases for some households, saying all Americans should have “skin in the game.” He later backed away from that proposal.

The tax idea drew a rebuke from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), who also criticized Mr. Scott’s proposal to require programs such as Medicare and Social Security to be reviewed every five years.

Earlier: Rick Scott Revises Tax-Increase Proposal After Facing Criticism

Democrat Adrian Fontes Wins Race for Arizona Secretary of State

Democrat Adrian Fontes was elected as Arizona’s Secretary of State, according to the Associated Press.

He beat Republican Mark Finchem, a State House member, who supported former President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud in the 2020 election.

Mr. Fontes, a former Maricopa County Recorder, succeeds Katie Hobbs, a fellow Democrat who is in a close race for governor.

Mr. Fontes has said he would increase transparency of the office’s work and make it easier for registered voters to vote.

Arizona

Adrian Fontes

wins Secretary of State race

AP Race Calls

Arizona

Mark Kelly

wins Senate race

AP Race Calls

Read earlier posts at WSJ.com

To see new updates, reopen this article. You can add it to your saved stories by tapping  

[gibsongirlselections]

How Presidential Character Will Matter in November

It’s been 48 years since James David Barber, then chairman of the political science department at Duke, published his seminal treatise, The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House. The book is largely forgotten today, but it caused quite a stir when it appeared in 1972. Barber, who died in 2004, looked at qualities of temperament and personality in assessing how the country’s chief executives approached the presidency—and how that in turn contributed to their success or failure in office.

By extension, Barber’s prism of assessing presidential character also could be used to predict how particular politicians might approach the White House job should they ever attain it.

I last wrote about the Barber thesis in The National Interest magazine back in 2013 in assessing the temperament and outlook of President Barack Obama (reprinted on the same website a year later as a kind of update), and I reprise here some of the language I employed then to describe the Barber concept. I do so as a foundation for assessing the presidential character of President Trump and (prospectively) of his presumptive opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden.

Barber assessed presidents based on two indices: first, whether they were “positive” or “negative” in outlook; and, second, whether they were “active” or “passive” in ambition. The first index–the positive/negative one–assesses how presidents regard themselves in relation to the challenges of the office; so, for example, did they embrace the job with a joyful optimism or regard it as a necessary martyrdom they must sustain in order to prove their own self-worth? The second index—active vs. passive—measures their degree of wanting to accomplish big things or retreat into a reactive governing mode.

The two indices produce four categories of presidents, to wit:

Active-Positive: Presidents with big national ambitions who are self-confident, flexible, optimistic, joyful in the exercise of power, possessing a certain philosophical detachment toward what they regard as a great game.

Active-Negative: Compulsive people with low self-esteem, seekers of power as a means of self-actualization, given to rigidity and pessimism, driven, sometimes overly aggressive. But they harbor big dreams for bringing about accomplishments of large historical scope.

Passive-Positive: Compliant presidents who react to events rather than initiating them. They want to be loved and are thus ingratiating—and easily manipulated. They are “superficially optimistic” and harbor generally modest ambitions for their presidential years. But they are healthy in both ego and self-esteem.

Passive-Negative: Withdrawn politicians with low self-esteem and little zest for the give-and-take of politics and the glad-handing requirements of the game. They avoid conflict and take no joy in the uses of power. They tend to get themselves boxed up through a preoccupation with principles, rules, and procedures.

When Barber first put forth this matrix, he was correctly viewed as distinctively probing and original. And there is little doubt that Barber’s perceived  traits, if correctly identified and analyzed, can inform our assessments of how presidents do their job—or how prospective presidents might do theirs. But there is plenty of room for debate when it comes to attaching particular traits to particular presidents.

For example, Barber identifies George Washington as Passive-Negative, meaning he had low self-esteem, shunned opportunities for taking power, retreated from conflict, and was generally preoccupied on small matters at the expense of big ambitions. This hardly squares with history’s consistent portrayal of the first president. Another example was Barber’s categorization of Ronald Reagan as Passive-Positive, meaning his famous optimism was merely superficial, that he reacted to events rather than initiating them, and was easily manipulated.

This Reagan portrayal may have comported with what many of his opponents and detractors thought of him during his presidential tenure, but it doesn’t fit the real Reagan, who reversed decades of orthodoxy to transform the country’s economic debate and set out not just to counter the Soviet threat but to actually upend the Soviet Union itself. And he did this with hardly any evidence that he absorbed in any unhealthy way the barrage of harsh criticism thrown at him.

On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon clearly were Active-Negative, as Barber suggests. So were Herbert Hoover and Woodrow Wilson. And it isn’t difficult to accept some of Barber’s Active-Positive categorizations—Thomas Jefferson, Franklin Roosevelt, and Harry Truman, for example. All this suggests that there is plenty of room for discussion and debate on just where various presidents should be placed. It’s a kind of parlor game. And no doubt partisan impulses will creep into the parlor game as well.

So let’s go into the parlor and talk about Trump and Biden.

It isn’t difficult to place Trump on the Active-Passive scale. He is a man of large ambitions, as evidenced by his intent, as a 2016 candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, to mow down the entire GOP establishment on his way to the party nod. As president he has embraced a similar resolve to take the country in an entirely new direction in a host of areas—immigration, trade, foreign affairs. Thus it seems clear he is an Active president in his resolve, often expressed in audacious terms, to change American society in very significant ways.

But is he a Negative or a Positive? The Positive presidents relished the job and the grand necessity to move events by persuading, cajoling, bargaining with and perhaps occasionally threatening other players in the political arena. The great Active-Positive presidents all had fun in the job. They showed a zest and enthusiasm that was infectious, not just with the American people but also with members of Congress.

This doesn’t describe Trump. There’s no look of the happy warrior about him but rather a consistent bitterness and whininess. He demonstrates hardly any zest for the job and certainly very little enthusiasm for dealing with, cajoling, influencing, or even outmaneuvering the political opposition. The result is that he seldom outmaneuvers his adversaries at all.

And probably no president in American history has done more to make the big issues of the day about himself and his fate rather than about the nation and its fate. This is a bit of a giveaway that his struggles are driven by internal motivations, perhaps even internal demons of some kind or other.

All this helps explain why Trump has been unable to build politically on his basic fount of support—the 39 percent to 43 percent of Americans who give him a positive performance rating. If there is one thing his political style is not, it’s infectious. His negativity is a barrier to expansion in his overall public support; his inability to expand his public support is a barrier to success in governance; and his lack of success in governance is a barrier to eventual political success in November.

Thus do we see that Trump seems to be an Active-Negative. Presidents in this Barber category don’t have great track records. They include John Adams, a failed one-termer; Woodrow Wilson, a two-termer whose second term was among the most disastrous of our history; Herbert Hoover, tossed out after a single term because he couldn’t find a way to grapple with the Great Depression; Lyndon Johnson, a foreign-policy failure of rare dimension; and Richard Nixon, the only president to resign the office in disgrace.

What about Biden? Of course, using the Barber analyletical tool to assess the presidential character of someone who has never been president has to be considered a qualified enterprise at best. But the man has been at a high level on the national political scene for nearly half a century, and in that time we have been given a solid opportunity to observe him and assess his political attributes.

On the Positive/Negative scale, Biden would seem to be a Positive. He was excoriated early in the Democratic nomination battle for touting his ability over the years to work with fellow senators who had demonstrated their segregationist prejudices, including Mississippi’s James O. Eastland and Georgia’s Herman Talmadge. “We didn’t agree on much of anything,” said Biden, adding however, “We got things done.”

The outcry, much of it mean-spirited, was predictable, but Biden’s ability to work with senatorial colleagues was a hallmark of his image over the decades of his congressional tenure. The highly regarded Congressional Quarterly book of political profiles, Politics in America, praised Biden for his ability to work with North Carolina Republican Jesse Helms when Helms was chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and Biden was its ranking member. Said the book: “Biden’s ability to maintain lines of communication with all groups often has made him, rather than Helms, the key vote on Foreign Relations.”

This can be viewed as evidence of a Positive trait, based on the Barber scale. Even after 30 years in the Senate, said Politics in America, “he still exhibits the intelligence, drive and passion of his youth.” The key word here, in terms of presidential character, is “passion.” Positives demonstrate a zest for the job and an openness to people, even those in the opposition who represent impediments to success that must be dealt with through persuasion, cajolery, back-slapping, and old-fashioned horse-trading. Positives love that game; so does Biden.

On the Active/Passive scale, Biden seems to tilt toward passivity. This is difficult to assess, however, because you can’t know how a president will view the White House job with any definiteness until he or she actually becomes president. But Biden’s long Washington service reveals an adroit legislative politician who dealt with issues as they emerged, without much evidence of vision or big thinking.

Thus does it appear that Biden represents a likely Passive/Positive president. Recall, Barber sees presidents in this category as wanting to be loved and thus ingratiating—and easily manipulated. That indeed is one of the knocks on Biden by conservatives—that he is being manipulated in his campaign, and would continue to be as president, by his party’s emergent leftist radicals.

In any event, we have—for whatever it might be worth—what appears to be Biden’s Passive/Positive persona up against Trump’s more definitive Active/Negative designation. This isn’t intended as a suggestion on how anyone should vote, merely as one small window on the race as it unfolds.

Robert W. Merry, longtime Washington, D.C., journalist and publishing executive, is the author of Where They Stand: The American Presidents in the Eyes of Voters and Historians, among other books.

The post How Presidential Character Will Matter in November appeared first on The American Conservative.

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Few Beltway figures have proven themselves cagier than Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). When it came to fighting a showdown over the impeachment trial rules, however, McConnell had help — from Democrats past and present. And despite a last-minute surprise from former National Security Adviser John Bolton, McConnell got exactly what he wanted in the end.Ever since the House passed two articles of impeachment against President Trump, McConnell has insisted that the Senate will follow the rules put in place by the unanimous vote for Bill Clinton's trial in 1999. Those rules allow the Senate to accept the articles of impeachment from House managers, question them as to the strength of the case, and then open the process up for votes on subpoenas, witnesses, and motions for dismissal. By deferring those questions for after the presentation of the case, the Senate can then structure the proceedings as impartially as possible — at least at the beginning.Twenty years ago, then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) proposed those rules, working with both Senate Republicans and the White House, and got them passed 100-0. Among those voting to approve the rules was newly minted Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), now Senate minority leader, who also used those rules to vote for a dismissal at the end of the presentment. "I hope a trial doesn't go forward," Schumer said at the time, pledging to "explore every possible way to avoid a trial." When a dismissal failed, the Senate held a series of votes on witnesses and procedures that largely broke along party lines, but in the end Clinton got acquitted on a bipartisan vote and the trial was largely considered credible.For the past three weeks, McConnell has challenged Democrats to explain why those rules wouldn't apply to Trump just as well as Clinton. Why not look at the case first before deciding whether to call more witnesses? Until Monday, neither Schumer nor House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had an answer for McConnell's question that would have moved any of his caucus — until Bolton's surprise announcement.During the House impeachment process, Trump's former national security adviser had been invited to testify but never subpoenaed. He had let it be known that he would challenge any subpoena in court to settle the competing claims over executive privilege from the White House over his advice and counsel to Trump, and the House withdrew its invitation rather than go to court to deal with the conflict. In his statement, Bolton decried the lack of action by the House committees on pursuing testimony from himself and his aide Dr. Charles Kupperman, who did get a subpoena that was subsequently withdrawn by the House. Bolton declared that he had "resolved the serious competing issues" on his own and had decided that "if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify."That certainly appeared to flip the question on its head. Would Bolton's decision matter to the people most able to impact the process — a handful of moderates in the Senate GOP caucus? Schumer amped up the pressure by declaring any failure to subpoena Bolton up front would amount to a "cover up."In the end, however, it didn't work. Later in the same day, the two most likely Republicans to flip on the rules question instead came out firmly in support of McConnell's position. In her statement, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) noted the unanimous adoption of the same rules in 1999 and noted they don't prohibit the later calling of witnesses. "I believe this process — the Clinton approach — worked well," Collins stated. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) concurred, telling reporters that "I think we need to do what they did the last time they did this unfortunate process."This decision in light of Bolton's statement signals that Senate Republicans have reached consensus on more than just the rules. If they thought Bolton had testimony to truly impeachable conduct, neither Murkowski nor Collins would have gone out on a limb for McConnell at this stage — especially Collins, who faces a tough re-election fight this fall. Even if Bolton could provide direct testimony about a quid pro quo for the aid to Ukraine, Republicans have argued that such an action doesn't rise to the level of an impeachable offense.Therefore, testimony on these points is likely to be largely irrelevant anyway. Republicans view the articles of impeachment as the partisan fruit of a poisoned process, an impression no doubt fueled by Pelosi's attempts to withhold their transmission to force concessions out of McConnell. In fact, Murkowski specifically referenced the House delaying action while discussing her decision to vote in support of McConnell's plan. When asked about Bolton's testimony, Murkowski said that issue should be taken up after the House presents the case to the Senate, adding, "So do you have any interesting news for me on that? Like when we might be able to get articles?"McConnell didn't waste any time after getting Collins and Murkowski on board, and later getting a renewed pledge of support from Mitt Romney as well. The rules package will likely pass on a strict party-line vote in contrast with Republican cooperation with Daschle 21 years ago. That too will likely sit poorly with the GOP majority after watching the House rush through its investigation to reach its predetermined conclusions. They may vote to allow witnesses to testify, but it seems very unlikely that anyone in the Senate will change their minds on removal now. Or anyone else, for that matter.Want more essential commentary and analysis like this delivered straight to your inbox? Sign up for The Week's "Today's best articles" newsletter here.More stories from theweek.com Joe Biden's free ride is over Trump's Iranian diplomacy gambit Iran has offered Trump an 'off-ramp' from war, and there's growing speculation he might take it

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