#catching fish

[one-time-i-dreamt]

I was playing Animal Crossing and I went to catch a fish, my character caught a sea bass and said, "What the fuck," and I got so scared that I woke up.

[platilove-blog]

[rozecrest]

hey don’t cry. spiro the bald eagle failing at catching a crab, okay?

[criiitter]

redraw of the best scene in the whole damn show

[rainy-nomad]

Late for mermay? Early for mermay? no, I say mermay is today! I really wanted to draw them as fish and I could not wait until May so I present... Janumaid

[exactlyharddefendor]

Deep sea fishing. Loved it. On the way out to sea. Spent the whole day. Caught eight Rockfish. Great day.

[nonasuch]

here is a concept: time travel cop, fish & wildlife division

most of their job is dealing with the kinds of assholes who think black market tiger cubs are a great idea right up until someone gets mauled, except these are even bigger assholes with black market Smilodon cubs that they are even less equipped to care for

this is the most straightforward and therefore relatively headache-free part of their job, because it’s the same “put that thing back where it came from or so help me” song and dance every time

it’s also significantly less depressing than the trophy hunters who don’t even want an alive extinct animal. those are extra annoying because you have to undo the time travel that let them kill that poor Megatherium or thylacine or anklyosaur or whatever, and it’s always so much extra paperwork.

and those people suck, definitely, and have fully earned a stint in Time Jail. no question. but they still do not create anywhere near as much work as the obsessive hobbyists with their exhaustively careful best practices and worryingly good track-covering. also, weirdly, it’s almost always birds with them?

like. the guys who will flagrantly abuse Time Law to bird-nap breeding pairs just long enough to raise one clutch of eggs apiece, and return them seamlessly to their spots on the timeline. who are so determined to keep their pet (ha) projects going that no one even realizes what they’re doing until they have an entire stable breeding population of passenger pigeons up and running. who are now the reason that reps from six different zoos are about to start throwing hands right in front of you over who gets dibs.

those guys cause the most paperwork. and half the time they’re snapped up by the same zoo or wildlife preserve that gets their colony of ivory-billed woodpeckers or Carolina parakeets or — once, very memorably — giant fucking South Island moa, and they never even spend a day in Time Jail.

[beybuniki]

fishing trip day 2 & 3 🎣🍀

[travelstore24-blog]

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A massive octopus attacks a diver wrapping itself around his arms and equipment as he attempts to pry himself from its grasp. The diver eventually frees himself.

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[lotus-pear]

started playing mayoi and i forgot how much i missed them😭

[locusfandomtime]

Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book

lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.

(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)

What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?

(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)

The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.

However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.

TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)

Grian's Data

According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.

To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.

Is this statistically significant?

Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):

H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)

H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)

5679 trials, 0 mending books

X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)

p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)

p = 0.2021473392

Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0

With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.

Are other values statistically significant?

Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.

I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?

Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation

The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.

End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.

[an-adhd-infested-nerd]

Me when a game lets you explore the ocean, find fish, help people and there are also horrors.

[the-darkestminds]

Me reading this:

[sloppybrush]

Waiting for some stuff to charge so I shall slowly catch up with updating my tumblr art posts😌

Tell me you’ve played over 400 hours of hades without telling me played over 400 hours 😬😬😬

My compulsion to add more was only stopped my my tears as I tried to draw all these details in on a 9x12 sheet of paper

Think I descended in madness when I couldn’t fit it in the mini print version and then broke down the image into 5 separate prints and spent forever patching the weird break off points. But just like the game I may love this print forever 😂😂

Bracing myself to experience it all again with hades 2🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

[bearlyfunctioning]

"Lessons Learned" - A personal painting I have been waiting excitedly to share for a year now 🐻✨ this was my last truly inspired to work on/complex artwork before burnout truly set in. My lovely patrons gifted me the time to make this back in Jan '23, just sharing publicly now.