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#honorable mentions include lemmings
Who had the most badass suicide:
A.) Humpy Dumpty in Puss & Boots
B.) Batman in Superman: Red Son
C.) Icarus from Ancient Greece
D.) Oily Josh from Ancient Palestine
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iuphilanthropy · 5 years
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A visit to the Rijksmuseum
By Duke Ogar
The other day our group visited KPN Mooiste Contact Fonds and the Rijksmuseum. As a lead sponsor, KPN not only supports the Rijksmuseum financially, but in particular with information and communications tech expertise. For instance, the museum guides use iPads on their tours, and visitors will find iPads in sub-collections that provide additional information about the artworks. Additionally, the Rijksmuseum’s acclaimed website is hosted by KPN. These are some of the ways KPN is making art accessible for everyone. Just as important are the large number of innovative products that KPN supplies in the fields of telephone, data traffic and data storage. In this way, KPN is helping the Rijksmuseum achieve its strategy of being an innovative, state-of-the-art cultural institution of global significance.
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The Rijksmuseum is a family friendly Dutch national museum dedicated to arts and history in Amsterdam. To give a brief background, it was founded in the 1800s in The Hague and moved to Amsterdam in 1808. The current building was designed by Pierre Cuypers and opened in 1885. The collection of the Rijksmuseum consists of 1 million pieces of art from the years 1200 to 2000. According to the tour guide, about 8,000 pieces are currently on display. More than 2,000 paintings were derived from the Dutch Golden Age by several notable painters such as Jacob van Ruisdael, Frans Hals, Johannes Vermeer, Jan Steen, and Rembrandt. Interestingly, the museum proceeded to making 125,000 high resolution images available for download through its Rijksstudio web platform, with plans to add another 40,000 images per year until the entire collection of one million works is available, thanks to KPN.
The Rijksmuseum’s world-famous collection is now presented in an entirely new way. Visitors can now travel through time and experience a sense of beauty and time. As mentioned, 8,000 objects in 80 rooms tell the story of 800 years of Dutch art and history.
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The Rijksmuseum’s collection illustrates the history of Holland, from the Middle Ages to the present. It showcases art and history in an international context. Some works that many look forward to seeing include:
·         Night Watch, Rembrandt van Rijn’s most well-known painting that is famous throughout the world.
·         The museum’s Gallery of Honor in which paintings from great masters are displayed, including Frans Hals, Jan Steen, Vermeer and Rembrandt. Even if one has only little time to spare for a visit, this is where you can see the best of the Golden Age in one place.
·         A gorgeous collection of Delft Blue pottery ranging from tea sets to vases.
·         The Cuypersbibliotheek, which is the biggest and oldest art history library in Holland. A far-reaching renovation has restored the space to its original state.
The museum organizes several exhibitions in what is known as the Philips Wing each year, showcasing works from its own collection as well as international loans. There is a coffee corner in the Philips Wing, where one could also buy exhibition catalogues and gifts associated with the exhibitions.
The museum’s aim for this year is to honor Rembrandt van Rijn with prestigious exhibitions. It was great to see the biggest collection of Rembrandt’s paintings ever in a single exhibition and discover why Rembrandt is still one of the world’s greatest artists. Come fall, one can see a number of works by Spanish masters exhibited side by side with the Dutch masters of the Golden Age.
The tour was complimented by the Rijksmuseum Garden, Rijksshop and Café, which are said to be accessible without tickets from 9:00 to 18:00. The food was great, so I advise combing a visit with lunch or dinner. It is also advisable to buy an online ticket ahead of time so you can join the fast lane and don't have to wait in line for a ticket.
During the tour, I got to appreciate the generosity of the donors as they have contributed to the success of the museum. Donations and funds help support education, digitization, restoration, research, and publications at the museum. As a result of these donations and funds, the museum has been able to appoint Marije Jansen as junior curator of Japanese Prints, fulfilling a long-time ambition of the museum and a cherished dream of Marije herself. Private donations and funds have also enabled the Rijksmuseum to set up a special fellowship programme that offers talented students from the Netherlands and abroad opportunities to conduct scholarly research on Dutch art and history in an unparalleled setting. Also, thanks to the generous support of the Kramer-Lems Foundation, metal restorer Arie Pappot was able to begin doctoral research on the development of the copper and bronze industry in the seventeenth-century Netherlands.
Overall, I was very impressed by the what I saw having explored the Rijksmuseum and its many works of art. The experience also highlights ways in which philanthropy has become a vital instrument to propel art culture around the world.  
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lazilysillyprince · 6 years
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What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://cloudcomputingoffers.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
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hostingnewsfeed · 6 years
Text
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://cloudcomputingoffers.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
0 notes
smartwebhostingblog · 6 years
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What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://khalednaser.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
0 notes
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://khalednaser.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
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republicstandard · 7 years
Text
Liberals Have Stolen The Moral Right To Protest #MarchForOurLives
Protest is for me, but not for thee...
I recently wrote an article about political correctness and absolute moral authority and many of the ideas contained therein are relevant to this piece. I do encourage you to read that article also. As we proceed through the days following the recent anti-Second Amendment "March for our Lives" it imperative that we understand what is happening to our society.
This setup has been in process for at least 50 years. We have been ingrained from the earliest days in school and this has continued in businesses and even some churches. There are people, groups, and events which cannot and must not be questioned. They have either assumed or been granted absolute moral authority. Neither the Constitution nor the rule of law matter. Then come the calls that, “We must do something”.
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Of course, none of this is even vaguely possible without a willing and complicit media.
In the lead up to the big march in Washington California teacher Julianne Benzel posed a question for her students. “Are all protests equal?” I like to hear this because there is very little critical thinking taught in schools these days, and most certainly that is true in California. If students can decide to walk out of school for 17 minutes in support of gun control, can they do the same to protest abortion? Of course, her point was not only a valid one, it was one designed to make the kids think rather than act like sheep or lemmings.
She learned about absolute moral authority after class when she was placed on administrative leave after receiving a complaint about her comment in class. So the discussion now includes the First Amendment along with the Second. Understand this, absolute moral authority and political correctness are used to stifle speech and take away rights. They protect nothing but feelings and in so doing make us incapable of articulating a position or having a civil discussion.
Ohio senior Jacob Shoemaker refused to walk out of his classroom and was suspended. Now he was directed to go to a special study hall in lieu of the protest, but his point was that he and the other students AND the teacher belonged in class;  divisive politics has no place in school. I admire his pluck, however, I believe schools should neither take sides nor ignore these things. Free speech is always a good thing, free thinking, and discussion; reason and critical thinking.
Every year there is a March For Life in DC, this year was the 45th, a pro-life march focused on abortion and the lives lost. This year an estimated 100,000 attended however in 2013 the crowd was put in the area of 650,000, roughly the same as this event that was put on by school kids (Really? More on that later.), but you did not know that, did you? In 2010 Glenn Beck’s Restoring Honor march attracted an estimated 750,000. Yet if one is to look at media reports we are led to believe only "progressive" rallies capture these numbers, there is no mention of those by conservatives.
And to think this was organized by school children! The organizational skills of these young people are amazing; raising money to fund the facilities and equipment, obtain the necessary permits and everything to pull off this event was incredible. Please excuse my sarcasm.
Obviously, the kids did not put this on, they were used by seasoned operatives; community organizers. A number of well-known people spoke up and declared they would send money in support. A question. Who was the check made out to and to which address was it sent?
Our tax laws enable this darkness. The March For Our Lives Fund was organized as a 501(c)(4) organization. Donations to such an organization are not tax-deductible, but they DO NOT have to disclose their donor's identities. It is possible for a 501(c)(3) to give money to a (c)(4), thus money can be funneled to an event such as this and be deductible. I have no proof of this, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities. There was a suggestion made publicly that donations would be deductible if written to “March For Our Lives - Everytown Support Fund”, a Michael Bloomberg organization. Hmmm, high school kids. Right.
Front Page Magazine did a great job of following the money and I will not repeat it here, click on that link and see the trail that leads to the groups behind this “children’s march”. None of it comes from Florida.
What I felt was the most interesting was the aftermath of the event. While it is odd to me that people gathered demanding that their constitutionally protected right be taken away, one of the primary faces of the event (David Hogg) was furious when it touched him personally. One of the policies taken up by his Parkland school was to allow only clear plastic backpacks. It seems David views this as an infringement on his constitutional rights. Remember, David is the only one allowed to protest…
“It’s unnecessary, it’s embarrassing for a lot of the students and it makes them feel isolated and separated from the rest of American school culture where they’re having essentially their First Amendment rights infringed upon because they can’t freely wear whatever backpack they want regardless of what it is,” Hogg said.
“One of the other important things to realize is many students want their privacy. There are many, for example, females in our school that when they go through their menstrual cycle, they don’t want people to see their tampons and stuff,” he explained.
“What we should have is just more policies that make sure that these students are feeling safe and secure in their schools and not like they’re being fought against like it’s a prison,” according to Hogg.
Perhaps he didn’t think it through- that a government that can give you what you want can also take away what you want.
If you listen to what the protesters demanded and who they blamed, it seems it was the fault of politicians, the NRA, the gun, an outdated constitution (only certain parts I suppose)...but no one blamed the actual shooter, Nicholas Cruz. Cruz broke many laws, to think passing another law would matter does not make sense.
No one blamed the resource officer who refrained from entering the building or the initial deputies who also stayed outside. EMS personnel was prevented from entering (understandable since there was no law enforcement inside) to render aid to the ones who had been shot. No one blamed the collusion between the sheriff’s office and the school administration to under-report incidents in order to receive more federal funding. You see, none of those fit the agenda of gun control. Remember, never let a crisis go to waste.
Unheard was any vocalization against the proposed gun restrictions. Ben Shapiro gave some of them a voice, but the mainstream media will not. Ben makes some excellent points, such as a seventeen-year-old cannot buy a gun but is old enough and mature enough to set public policy and law. An 18-year-old must register for the draft and can volunteer to join the military, but would be denied the ability to buy a gun. Should we also restrict their right to speak out? Again, political correctness and absolute moral authority dictate who may speak and have a valid opinion and who may not.
And what of those who marched and carried signs at the event in Washington? Would it make any sense at all for those who march and demand gun control, specifically banning “Assault Rifles”, should they know what they are talking about? To have credibility, one should have a working knowledge of the subject. In this case, it seems not to be so. This video interviews some of the marchers. Are these the people who should be shaping public policy infringing our natural rights?
The reason they cannot define what an Assault Rifle is because the term was made up. The Germans used the term “Storm Rifle” (sturmgewehr), it seems in 1988 John Sugarmann of the anti-gun Violence Policy Center coined the term to apply to scary looking guns. An excerpt from his study “Assault Weapons and Accessories in America”:
"Assault weapons—just like armor-piercing bullets, machine guns, and plastic firearms—are a new topic. The weapons' menacing looks, coupled with the public's confusion over fully automatic machine guns versus semi-automatic assault weapons..." I think the confusion is the difference between the term "Assault Rifle" and "Assault Weapon". Assault rifles are any of various automatic or semiautomatic rifles with large capacity magazines designed for military use.”
It is simply taking advantage of the public’s ignorance. So, protesters who are ignorant and know nothing about what they are protesting have the absolute moral authority and those who understand the meaning of “Shall not be infringed” and that a semi-automatic sporting rifle is not a rifle designed for military use.
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The division in our society has been created intentionally. A divided society is easier to control. And many seem anxious to keep the division alive and well. The media plays it, politicians play it and many on social media. Many of the speeches given at the DC event and interviews since offer no inclination to understand the truth or the other side.
May we endeavor to educate those who are willing to learn and stand firm against those who would take or diminish our rights.
from Republic Standard | Conservative Thought & Culture Magazine https://ift.tt/2pTsvma via IFTTT
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anthonybialy · 7 years
Text
Warp Speed and Brains
We still must debate what's known to be lunacy.  A My Pillow won't help you feel less tired.  Even stacking the second you get for a great price will be fruitless.  Perhaps they're good for smothering; the mustache guy doesn't mention it in the ad.
The warped prospective looks normal to those sucked into wormholes. Those who should be shunned have the same access to Twitter and message boards as the sane and decent.  Lunacy is accepted as legitimate far too often.  At least we can feel thankful for having a republic.
There is no more rational behavior than knocking down statues, presuming ghosts are both real and haunting police forces with racist urges. As for more recent history, Rebel memorials were there in July, which makes concluding they contained latent evil juju seem rather odd. Those suddenly indignant aren't willing to hear that the Confederacy may have involved more issues than losing wars on slavery's behalf, including misguided personal valor.  But it's easy to win once you've deemed your enemies diabolical.  No, we're not talking about emancipation: the subject is honoring war dead.
Hating the CSA is a favorite pastime of those who also loathe the USA. Insulting the flag is how the modern bright person shows they respect this place.  Kneeling poseurs can't figure out whether America will be swell once it never has problems or is as continually monstrous as Trump voters.
But details are unimportant when you're righteous enough.  Barack Obama showed his adoration for our country by trying to alter everything he disliked, which is to say everything.  His intellectual disciples claim America will be swell once an ever-efficient government provides compassionate insurance to all.  Pray for the spouses of such critical people, although they presumably had to have suspected what was in store.
The NFL will explain what a catch is before those who flip off the anthem at work explain why insolence is the new patriotism.  There hasn't been one intelligent football player explaining why this self-aggrandizing moment is selfless.  It's perhaps because their extrapolations sounds like those of head trauma victims.  More concussion research is necessary.
I wish petulant NFLers would fight stereotypes by not being lunkheaded athletes.  I'd actually prefer the typical dumb jock who has no pretensions of learning anything more than the playbook.  Realizing limits is far wiser than thinking a sanctimonious affront aids justice.
Football is a team game, just like blindly following what washed-up players claim about racist devil cops.  Note how many lemmings concluded that Colin Kaepernick is both bright and decent, and you see how ESPN thinks going for social justice would equal ratings.  Who would want to watch plain sports?
It's cool to resist.  Don't you want to be self-important?  Hashtag rangers are fighting oppression, which you should oppose.  Sure, deciding the country is trash based on a handful of incidents involving unpleasant cops doesn't make much sense, especially compared to truly crummy stuff in every inferior non-America nation. But grown juveniles aren't interested in your square statistics. Please let us know when this is no longer a garbage country.  Don't leave in the meantime, as there are endless rights to exploit by bitching about them.
Why are you against helping others?  Socialism is cool, according to those who can slack thanks to the free market.  We've gained every technological advancement while losing understanding of what human nature is.  It might take looking up from our screens, so forget it.
But we wouldn't even get the chance to devolve into slugs without a robust marketplace.  No worker's paradise is going to invent an iThing.  But you can coast in a free society while bitching that it's unfair.  It's right in a way they don't grasp.
The needle is buried so far in the red that getting back to merely dangerous will be a trek.  Warped perspective makes peril seem fun. In a fair world, Bernie Sanders should be handing out mimeographed pamphlets about corporate greed on a Burlington street corner. Instead, he's lauded as a neat grandpa by dolts who in a more enlightened time would reside in asylums despite the consistently odious results of his lunatic idiocy over human history.  But socialism helps people and is free, so why won't you give up your corporate greed and work so the selfless don't have to.
Sure, we could blame social media, which is rotting brains worse than rock music and Sugar Smacks combined.  But it's merely easier to do dumb things.  This whole on the line computering fad facilitates finding plenty of supportive people, which is the worst thing imaginable. Have you met them?  In this case, their anonymous message board accounts show how atrocious notions can thrive with the encouragement of unhindered lunatics.  Those indulging horrid notions show the value of having editors.  Professionals aren't found in echo chambers packed with resentful dolts.
Technomen are supposed to find relevant information instantly, which leaves more time for pondering.  Instead, modern man jumps quickly to the next topic that requires crude overreaction.  Our species is now conditioned to react as quickly as our devices.  Evolved humans indulge feelings instead of contemplating, which is almost as uncool as Blockbuster Video.  It's time to upgrade to DVD.
We must avoid talking to outsiders.  Their differing ideas are toxic. Everyone who disagrees is closed-minded, which is why it's okay to close them out. It's almost a clever trick.  Maintain eye contact in a circle jerk attended by people who don't recognize gender.  This tolerantly happy world is more futuristic than those in 1967 could've imagined.  Use unimaginably advanced devices to claim we're dealing with 19th-century problems.  Everyone who follows you agrees, so the facts check out.
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allcheatscodes · 8 years
Text
fieldrunners iphone
http://allcheatscodes.com/fieldrunners-iphone/
fieldrunners iphone
Fieldrunners cheats & more for iPhone (iOS)
Cheats
Unlockables
Hints
Easter Eggs
Glitches
Guides
Achievements
Get the updated and latest Fieldrunners cheats, unlockables, codes, hints, Easter eggs, glitches, tricks, tips, hacks, downloads, achievements, guides, FAQs, walkthroughs, and more for iPhone (iOS). AllCheatsCodes.com has all the codes you need to win every game you play!
Use the links above or scroll down to see all the iPhone cheats we have available for Fieldrunners.
Check PC cheats for this game
Check PSP cheats for this game
Check Android cheats for this game
Genre: Action, Side Scrolling Combat Developer: Unknown Publisher: Apple ESRB Rating: Not-Rated Release Date: October 5, 2008
Hints
Currently we have no tips for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Cheats
Currently we have no cheats or codes for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Unlockables
Currently we have no unlockables for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Easter eggs
Currently we have no easter eggs for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Glitches
Currently we have no glitches for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Guides
Currently we have no guides or FAQs for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Achievements
Achievement List
Active Denial System – Defeat 1,000,000 fieldrunners.
Aerial Madman – Destroy 500 air units.
Aerial Survivalist – Destroy 100 air units.
Base Major – Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Classic mode on Medium.
Baserunner – Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Classic mode on Hard.
Berzerker – Defeat 500,000 fieldrunners.
Blow ’em Up! – Fully upgrade a Missile Tower.
Boot Camp Complete – Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Classic mode on Easy.
Boot Camp Dominator – Get to round 100 on Drylands in Classic mode on Easy.
Boot Camp Junior – Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Classic mode on Easy.
Boot Camp Master – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Classic mode on Easy.
Boot Camp Senior – Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Classic mode on Easy.
Commander-in-Chief – Achieve 500 victories.
Crossroads Bronze – Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Extended mode on Easy.
Crossroads Gold – Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Extended mode on Hard.
Crossroads Silver – Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Extended mode on Medium.
Crystal Caves Bronze – Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Extended mode on Easy.
Crystal Caves Gold – Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Extended mode on Hard.
Crystal Caves Silver – Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Extended mode on Medium.
Crystal Clear – Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Classic mode on Easy.
Crystalrunner – Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Classic mode on Hard.
Cuts Like Butter – Fully upgrade a Laser Tower.
Daredevil – Get to round 150 on any map in Endless mode on Hard.
Desert Captain – Get to round 100 on Drylands in Classic mode on Medium.
Desertrunner – Get to round 100 on Drylands in Classic mode on Hard.
Diamonds are Forever – Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Classic mode on Medium.
Diehard – Play 75 rounds consecutively with 1 life.
Drylands Bronze – Get to round 100 on Drylands in Extended mode on Easy.
Drylands Gold – Get to round 100 on Drylands in Extended mode on Hard.
Drylands Silver – Get to round 100 on Drylands in Extended mode on Medium.
Field Corporal – Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Classic mode on Medium.
Fieldrunner – Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Classic mode on Hard.
Firecracker – Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Classic mode on Easy.
Firewalker – Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Classic mode on Medium.
FLAWLESS! – Achieve victory without taking any damage.
Frostbite Bronze – Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Extended mode on Easy.
Frostbite Gold – Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Extended mode on Hard.
Frostbite Silver – Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Extended mode on Medium.
Get off my Lawn – Fully upgrade a Shotgun Tower
Global Warmer – Fully upgrade a Flame Tower.
Grasslands Bronze – Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Extended mode on Easy.
Grasslands Gold – Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Extended mode on Hard.
Grasslands Silver – Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Extended mode on Medium.
Guerrilla Warfare – Buy and sell 20 towers consecutively.
Hard Worker – Get defeated 100 times.
HARDCORE! – Unlock all achievements.
Heavy Poison – Fully upgrade a Poison Tower.
I Love the Smell of Napalm. – Defeat 5,000 fieldrunners with the Flame Tower.
Ice Brigadier – Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Classic mode on Medium.
Icerunner – Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Classic mode on Hard.
Impenetrable! – Destroy 5,000 air units.
Insane! – Get to round 500 on any map in Endless mode on Easy.
Iron Fist – Score 500,000 points on any map in a single session.
It’s Better to be Alive – Get to round 150 on any map in Endless mode on Easy.
Jelly Up! – Slow down 100,000 fieldrunners with the Goo Tower.
Lavaflow Bronze – Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Extended mode on Easy.
Lavaflow Gold – Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Extended mode on Hard.
Lavaflow Silver – Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Extended mode on Medium.
Lavarunner – Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Classic mode on Hard.
Lemming! – Get defeated 1,000 times.
Mad Scientist – Fully upgrade a Tesla Tower.
Manhattan Project – Fully upgrade a Mortar Tower.
Master Plan – Score 850,000 points on any map in a single session.
Medal of Honor – Unlock 50%% of all achievements.
Mow Them Down – Fully upgrade a Gatling Tower.
Mud on Your Boots – Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Classic mode on Easy.
Mudrunner – Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Classic mode on Hard.
Mudslide Bronze – Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Extended mode on Easy.
Mudslide Gold – Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Extended mode on Hard.
Mudslide Silver – Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Extended mode on Medium.
Natural Born Sniper – Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Classic mode on Medium.
No Mercy – Defeat 5,000 fieldrunners.
Nuclear Dawn – Defeat 15,000 fieldrunners with the Mortar Tower.
Nuclear Winter – Fully upgrade an Ice Tower.
Patience is a Virtue – Get defeated 500 times.
Precious Snowflake – Slow down 50,000 fieldrunners with the Ice Tower.
Purple Heart – Survive any map with only 1 life.
Sky Colonel – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Classic mode on Medium.
Skyrunner – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Classic mode on Hard.
Skyway Bronze – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Easy.
Skyway Gold – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Hard.
Skyway Silver – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Medium.
Slice Them Up! – Defeat 5,000 fieldrunners with the Laser Tower.
Slow Mow! – Fully upgrade a Goo Tower.
Solar Flare – Fully upgrade a Plasma Tower.
Statistic – Defeat 100,000 fieldrunners.
Strategic Genius – Get to round 250 on any map in Endless mode on Medium.
Super Volcano – Fully upgrade a Lava Tower.
They Keep Coming, I Keep Gunning – Defeat 25,000 fieldrunners.
THIS IS SPARTA! – Achieve 100 victories without losing any lives.
Time Flies – Get to round 250 on any map in Endless mode on Easy.
War Hero – Achieve 100 victories.
Warming Up – Score 100,000 points on any map in a single session.
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hostingnewsfeed · 6 years
Text
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://khalednaser.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
0 notes
smartwebhostingblog · 6 years
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What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://naturalanxietyremediestips.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
0 notes
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://naturalanxietyremediestips.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
0 notes
lazilysillyprince · 6 years
Text
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
New Post has been published on http://naturalanxietyremediestips.com/what-should-i-do-with-my-ibm-shares/
What Should I Do With My IBM Shares?
On October 28, 2018 Seeking Alpha’s News Editor Brandy Betz announced the following IBM acquires Red Hat for $34B, which I am sure left many investors scratching their heads as to why IBM (IBM) would do such a thing? In this article, I will not discuss the various operations of the proposed merged company and how each is doing, as you can read many such articles on Seeking Alpha, both pro and con. What I will simply do is a quantitative analysis of IBM’s results on Main Street and then relate them to what an investor should do on Wall Street, using zero emotion.
Since 2013 IBM has struggled on both Main Street and Wall Street and this under performance has forced many investors (including legendary investor Warren Buffett) to cut and run from IBM and sell their shares in disgust. This has occurred for the simple reason that IBM’s management has struggled to grow the company’s revenue. Over the last four decades, I have learned one very important lesson as an Analyst and that is that investors on Wall Street hate negative revenue growth more than anything else. IBM has been the poster child of negative revenue growth over the past five years , achieving 21 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, before having the streak recently end.
This negative revenue growth rate has unfortunately forced IBM’s management to go outside of the company (in its acquisition of Red Hat), in order to find revenue growth, as it has tried internally for 21 consecutive quarters before eventually doing so. Here is our Friedrich datafile and quantitative chart (not technical chart) of Red Hat (RHT).
So in hunting for revenue growth, IBM ended overpaying by a large margin for Red Hat. The white line you see in the chart above is the Wall Street price for Red Hat and the yellow line is our Friedrich algorithms Main Street price (or what the algorithm believes the company is worth to a private buyer on Main Street if s/he were to buy the entire company per share) At $190 offered per share in cash for Red Hat, we believe that IBM paid over 4 times what the company is really worth. So in effect the decision making at IBM has gone from bad to worse. Let us now go and analyze IBM and then see what our Friedrich algorithm has to say about what you should do with your shares.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
In analyzing IBM, we will present some unique ratios that our Friedrich Investing System uses and will present a real-time quantitative analysis that will demonstrate the power of free cash flow in the investment process. In doing so, we will also teach everyone how to analyze one’s portfolio holdings on Main Street vs. Wall Street. At the same time, we will explain how the methodology involved in this analysis came about.
Main Street is where IBM operates and Wall Street is where its shares trade. The IBM shares that one can purchase on Wall Street are traded publicly on exchanges and the company has little control over how each share will trade. IBM is required to release its earnings reports each quarter and, from time to time, it also provides press releases to its shareholders (and the general public) giving updates on how its operations are doing on Main Street.
Main Street is where IBM invests in its own operations and sells to its customers. How well the CEO of IBM and its management do in selling those products determines how profitable the company will be. Wall Street then reacts based on the success or failure of management to meet its goals. Main Street and Wall Street are thus interlinked, but because anyone with a computer (or even just a smart phone), an internet connection, and a brokerage account can buy or sell any stock at any time, expertise is not a requirement in order to invest on Wall Street.
This results in Wall Street being a very dangerous place to operate as many investors tend to invest through emotion or follow the herd in and out of stocks. During bull markets, investors feel like they can do no wrong as “the rising tide lifts all boats.” But when a bear market suddenly shows up, these same investors tend to panic and like lemmings stampede over the cliff. Thus, we have the classic case of “greed vs. panic.”
Creation of the Friedrich Algorithm
Having noticed this problem some 35 years ago, I spent the last three decades building an algorithm called Friedrich. Our algorithm was designed to assist all investors (both Pro and Novice alike) and give them the ability to quickly compare a company’s Main Street operations, to its Wall Street valuation (Overbought or Oversold condition). Friedrich can do this on an individual company basis or assist users in analyzing an entire index like the S&P 500, an ETF, Mutual Fund, or individual portfolio with the use of our Portfolio Analyzer. I recently did so when I compared Apple (AAPL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY) Apple Vs. The S&P 500: Which Is The Better Investment?
Many years ago, while reading Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A) ( BRK.B) 1986 letter to shareholders, I discovered a ratio, which Mr. Buffett called “Owner Earnings,” or what we may consider to be Mr. Buffett’s version of FCF, or “Free Cash Flow.” To my amazement, in that little footnote, Mr. Buffett explained how to use it and basically states that it is one of the key ratios that he and Charlie Munger used in analyzing stocks. In that article, he defined the term “owner earnings” as the cash that is generated by the company’s business operations.
“[Owner earnings] represent [A] reported earnings plus [B] depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges… less [C] the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.”
I have used the free cash flow ratio for decades, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey, whose founder was Arnold Bernhard. Mr. Bernhard was a big fan of free cash flow and probably introduced it sooner than Mr. Buffett did. I know this as I was able to calculate the FCF ratio using old Value Line sheets for my 60-year backtest of the DJIA from 1950 to 2009.
The backtest mentioned above demonstrated that if one can purchase a company whose shares are selling for 15 (or less) times its Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio, that the probability of success will dramatically increase in most cases. I have renamed the ratio the Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio in honor of both men. The following is how that ratio is calculated.
Wall Street Analysis
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor / [(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/Diluted Shares Outstanding))
The above are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Wall Street, and below are the ratios I use when analyzing a stock on Main Street.
Main Street Analysis
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) – (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
The FROIC ratio tells us how much forward free cash flow we can expect the company to generate on Main Street relative to how much total capital it has employed. So, if a company invests $100 in total capital on Main Street and generates $20 in forward free cash flow it, therefore, has a FROIC of 20%, which we consider excellent. This is just one of the key ratios (66 in total) that we use to identify how a company is performing on Main Street, as it is our belief that if a company is making a killing on Main Street, Wall Street will eventually take notice.
So, let us begin our analysis and at the same time try to teach everyone how to do a similar analysis on one’s own portfolio. In analyzing IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF ratio, we must first adjust IBM’s Wall Street Price to account for its debt using our Sherlock Debt Divisor. Below is a detailed definition of that ratio and how we use it.
Sherlock Debt Divisor
A major concern that I have these days in analyzing companies is the debt burden relative to its operations and whether management is abusing this situation by taking on more debt than it requires. Debt, when used wisely, allows for what is called leverage, and leverage can be extremely beneficial within certain parameters. On the other side of the coin, the use of debt can also be excessive and put a company’s future in jeopardy. So, what I have done to determine if a company’s debt policy is beneficial or abusive is to create the Sherlock Debt Divisor.
What the Divisor does is punish companies that use debt unwisely and rewards those who successfully use debt as leverage. How do I do this? Well, I take a company’s working capital and subtract its long-term debt. If a company has a lot more working capital than long-term debt I reward it but punish those whose long-term debt exceeds its working capital. So, if this result is higher than the current stock market price, then leverage is being used and the more leveraged a company is, the worse the results of this ratio will be and the less attractive its stock will be as an investment.
Thus, having successfully defined the Sherlock Debt Divisor, we need the following four bits of financial data in order to calculate it for IBM. TTM (trailing twelve months) is as close to real-time data as we can get, based on when each company reports. The current analysis is taken from the IBM’s September 30, 2018 filing with the SEC (except the Market Price per share).
Market Price Per Share = $119.90
Working Capital = Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets = $48,258,000,000
Total Current Liabilities = $36,823,000,000
Working Capital = $11,435,000,000
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000,000
Sherlock Debt Divisor = Market Price Per Share – ((Working Capital – Long-Term Debt)/ (Diluted Shares Outstanding))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ((11,435,000,000 – $35,989,000,000)/ 915,200,000))
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $119.90 – ($-26.83) = $146.73
Since IBM has more Long-Term Debt vs. Working Capital, we, therefore, must punish it and use the new $146.73 as our new numerator in all our calculations.
Wall Street Analysis of IBM
Price to Bernhard Buffett FCF Ratio = Sherlock Debt Divisor/[(net income per share + depreciation per share) + (capital spending per diluted share)]
Sherlock Debt Divisor = $146.73
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow Ratio = $146.73/$7.29 = 20.13
Now, if one goes to our FRIEDRICH LEGEND (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 20.13 is considered average where anything under 15 is considered excellent.
We last ran our data file for IBM on December 15, 2018, and our Friedrich Algorithm gave a recommendation to our subscribers that IBM is a “Hold” as our Friedrich Data File and Chart below shows. There you will also find the last ten years of IBM’s Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow results.
Main Street Analysis of IBM
Now that we have taught everyone how to calculate our Price to Bernhard Buffett Free Cash Flow ratio, let us now move on and teach everyone how to calculate our FROIC ratio.
This is how we calculate it:
FROIC means “Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital”
Forward Free Cash Flow = [((Net Income + Depreciation) (1+ % Revenue Growth rate)) + (Capital Spending)]
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/(Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
Net Income per diluted share = $5,720,000,000/ 915,200,000= $6.25
Depreciation per diluted share = $4,517,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $4.93
Capital Spending per diluted share = $-3,569,000,000/ 915,200,000 = $3.89
$6.25 + $4.93 – ($3.89) = $7.29
Revenue Growth Rate TTM = 2%
[(($6.25 + $4.93) (102%)) – ($3.89) =$7.51
Long-Term Debt = $35,989,000,000
Shareholders Equity = $19,784,000,000
Diluted Shares Outstanding = 915,200,000
FROIC = (Forward Free Cash Flow)/ (Long-Term Debt + Shareholders’ Equity)
$7.51/$60.94 =12.3%
FROIC = 12.3%
Now, if one goes to my FRIEDRICH LEGEND again (on what is considered a good or bad result), you will notice that our result of 12.3% is considered good and tells us that IBM produces $12.30 in forward free cash flow for every $100 it invests in total capital employed on Main Street .
On Main Street, IBM is doing ok, while on Wall Street it is considered a hold.
What To Do?
Going forward, IBM in our opinion bought Red Hat in order to help it achieve a consistent positive revenue growth rate, but that it way overpaid for that privilege. Not only that, but it paid 10.77 times Red Hat’s TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) revenue and 118 times its TTM earnings. Those are dot.com boom and bust numbers and will only make matters worse at IBM. Once the merger is complete we will come back and write another article about the combined firm and you will probably find that though revenue growth maybe positive, every other result will be greatly reduced. The WARNINGS that you see in the IBM Datafile above are given when a company has one of three things happen to it.
1) Revenue growth is negative for two periods in a row
2) Badwill to Price is greater than 33%. (Badwill = Goodwill + Intangible Assets)
3) Sell price achieved.
Well, IBM has overcome its 21 consecutive periods of negative growth and may further do so when merging operations with Red Hat, but it will probably increase its Goodwill and Intangible assets substantially and that we see as a serious “Badwill to Price” negative. As you can see from our Red Hat Datafile at the beginning of this article, that Red Hat has had WARNINGS over the entire 10 year period under analysis and that is because it has always sold above its sell price. The reason for this is because its revenue growth has been excellent and that is what Wall Street loves more than anything. All I can say is that Warren Buffett is probably very happy he sold his entire stake in IBM prior to this disastrous merger being announced. In our opinion IBM dramatically overpaid for Red Hat and it should come back to haunt them sooner than later. We also recommend that investors follow Warren Buffett’s lead, as management keeps creating more problems for the company with every attempt they make to save it. Management’s days in our opinion are numbered.
In conclusion, it is my belief that free cash flow analysis is the ultimate tool when analyzing companies, and my hope is that you may add these ratios to your own investor toolbox in order to help you in your own due diligence. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
At Friedrich Global Research, we stick to the numbers. We do analysis like what you saw in this article, but for 20,000 stocks from 36 counties around the world. We also provide model portfolios ranging from ultra conservative to aggressive growth, so you can apply our research to your investing easily.
Interested? Go here to sign up today.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This analysis is not an advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from our research. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the poster is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results of actions taken based on information contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.
0 notes
allcheatscodes · 8 years
Text
fieldrunners pc
http://allcheatscodes.com/fieldrunners-pc/
fieldrunners pc
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Cheats
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Glitches
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Get the updated and latest Fieldrunners cheats, unlockables, codes, hints, Easter eggs, glitches, tricks, tips, hacks, downloads, achievements, guides, FAQs, walkthroughs, and more for PC (PC). AllCheatsCodes.com has all the codes you need to win every game you play!
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Genre: Action, Side Scrolling Combat Developer: Unknown Publisher: Apple ESRB Rating: Not-Rated Release Date: October 5, 2008
Hints
Currently we have no tips for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Cheats
Currently we have no cheats or codes for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Unlockables
Currently we have no unlockables for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Easter eggs
Currently we have no easter eggs for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Glitches
Currently we have no glitches for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Guides
Currently we have no guides or FAQs for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Achievements
Achievement List
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Skyway Bronze – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Easy.
Skyway Gold – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Hard.
Skyway Silver – Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Medium.
Slice Them Up! – Defeat 5,000 fieldrunners with the Laser Tower.
Slow Mow! – Fully upgrade a Goo Tower.
Solar Flare – Fully upgrade a Plasma Tower.
Statistic – Defeat 100,000 fieldrunners.
Strategic Genius – Get to round 250 on any map in Endless mode on Medium.
Super Volcano – Fully upgrade a Lava Tower.
They Keep Coming, I Keep Gunning – Defeat 25,000 fieldrunners.
THIS IS SPARTA! – Achieve 100 victories without losing any lives.
Time Flies – Get to round 250 on any map in Endless mode on Easy.
War Hero – Achieve 100 victories.
Warming Up – Score 100,000 points on any map in a single session.
0 notes
allcheatscodes · 8 years
Text
steel battalion heavy armor xbox 360
http://allcheatscodes.com/steel-battalion-heavy-armor-xbox-360/
steel battalion heavy armor xbox 360
Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor cheats & more for Xbox 360 (X360)
Cheats
Unlockables
Hints
Easter Eggs
Glitches
Guides
Achievements
Get the updated and latest Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor cheats, unlockables, codes, hints, Easter eggs, glitches, tricks, tips, hacks, downloads, achievements, guides, FAQs, walkthroughs, and more for Xbox 360 (X360). AllCheatsCodes.com has all the codes you need to win every game you play!
Use the links above or scroll down to see all the Xbox 360 cheats we have available for Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor.
Genre: Simulation, Ground Vehicle Combat Sim
Developer: From Software
Publisher: Capcom
ESRB Rating: Mature
Release Date: June 19, 2012
Hints
Currently we have no tips for Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Cheats
Currently we have no cheats or codes for Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Unlockables
Currently we have no unlockables for Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Easter eggs
Currently we have no easter eggs for Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Glitches
Currently we have no glitches for Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Guides
Currently we have no guides or FAQs for Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Achievements
Achievement List
Acrophiliac (30) – Complete “King of the Hill” and leave no Uncles to talk about it.
Air Superiority (10) – Complete the November 2082 campaign.
Angel of War (50) – Guide Bravo 1 through the entire war without sustaining a single casualty.
Auspicious June (30) – Guide Bravo 1 through the June 2082 campaign without sustaining a single casualty.
Bad Nephew (10) – Take down your first enemy combatant.
Bombs Away (15) – Give the signal to a friendly bomber.
Bridge Blowout (30) – Complete “Bridge Blowout” and leave no Uncles to talk about it.
Brother in Arms (15) – Survive the war with an inseparable friend.
By the Dawn’s Early Light (10) – Complete the April 2084 campaign.
Choices, Choices (20) – Obtain 11 pieces of equipment for your vertical tank.
Corporal Punishment? (15) – Teach your subcom a valuable lesson.
CQC (10) – Take out an enemy soldier in close quarters.
Dark Destrier (20) – Destroy 100 enemy vertical tanks.
Davy Jones (20) – Send 3 armed freighters to the bottom of the sea.
Evidence Eraser (30) – Complete “Crash Site” and leave no Uncles to talk about it.
Family Portrait (40) – After the war, complete Bravo 1’s platoon photo by reversing the fate of its fallen members.
Fortunate July (30) – Guide Bravo 1 through the July 2083 campaign without sustaining a single casualty.
Four by Four (20) – Create a platoon with three other players and complete a mission without any player casualties.
Gatecrasher (10) – Complete the January 2084 campaign.
Gift to the Future (15) – Save the most precious of lives.
Golden January (30) – Guide Bravo 1 through the January 2084 campaign without sustaining a single casualty.
Happy November (30) – Guide Bravo 1 through the November 2082 campaign without sustaining a single casualty.
Home Veet Home (40) – Obtain 21 pieces of equipment for your vertical tank.
Iron Coffin (10) – Prevent being gunned down by closing the armored shutter.
Jewel of the Nihil (15) – Find a valuable vacuum tube in the middle of nowhere.
Joyful October (30) – Guide Bravo 1 through the October 2083 campaign without sustaining a single casualty.
Lemmings to Lemonade (30) – Complete “Lemmings” and leave no Uncles to talk about it.
Lights Out, Berlin (30) – Complete “Berlin After Dark” and leave no Uncles to talk about it.
Lucky August (30) – Guide Bravo 1 through the August 2082 campaign without sustaining a single casualty.
Metal of Honor (20) – Destroy an HVT (heavy vertical tank).
Multitasker (10) – Double up as a loader.
New Toy (10) – Obtain your first piece of vertical tank equipment.
Octa-gone (10) – Knock out 8 enemy soldiers with a single HEAT round.
Officer and a Gentleman (15) – Give a generous share of food to your mechanic.
One-way Ticket (10) – Complete the October 2083 campaign.
Perfect April (30) – Guide Bravo 1 through the April 2084 campaign without sustaining a single casualty.
Pirouette (15) – Perform a pivot turn in high-speed mode to take out an enemy behind you.
Port Authority (10) – Complete the August 2082 campaign.
Reach for the Sky! (20) – Knock an enemy bomber out of the skies.
Repatriation (10) – Complete the June 2082 campaign.
Sign of Life (15) – Celebrate a victory with your loader.
Surgeon General (10) – Successfully purge the cockpit of smoke.
The Graduate (10) – Complete basic training.
Uncle Slam (20) – Take down 1000 enemy soldiers.
Urban Warrior (30) – Complete “Urban Warfare” and leave no Uncles to talk about it.
Watch and Learn (10) – Create a platoon with another player and complete a successful mission.
Waterside Wipeout (30) – Complete “Waterside Warehouse” and leave no Uncles to talk about it.
What a Shot! (20) – Hit an enemy using rear ammo.
With You in Spirit (10) – Join another player’s platoon and fall in battle while the commanding unit fights on.
World Traveler (10) – Complete the July 2083 campaign.
0 notes
allcheatscodes · 8 years
Text
fieldrunners android
http://allcheatscodes.com/fieldrunners-android/
fieldrunners android
Fieldrunners cheats & more for Android (Android)
Cheats
Unlockables
Hints
Easter Eggs
Glitches
Guides
Get the updated and latest Fieldrunners cheats, unlockables, codes, hints, Easter eggs, glitches, tricks, tips, hacks, downloads, guides, hints, FAQs, walkthroughs, and more for Android (Android). AllCheatsCodes.com has all the codes you need to win every game you play!
Use the links above or scroll down to see all the Android cheats we have available for Fieldrunners.
Check PC cheats for this game
Check PSP cheats for this game
Check iPhone cheats for this game
Genre: Action, Side Scrolling Combat
Developer: Unknown
Publisher: Apple
ESRB Rating: Not-Rated
Release Date: October 5, 2008
Hints
Currently we have no tips for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Cheats
Currently we have no cheats or codes for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Unlockables
Achievements
Active Denial System: Defeat 1,000,000 fieldrunners.
Aerial Madman: Destroy 500 air units.
Aerial Survivalist: Destroy 100 air units.
Base Major: Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Classic mode on Medium.
Baserunner: Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Classic mode on Hard.
Berzerker: Defeat 500,000 fieldrunners.
Blow ’em Up!: Fully upgrade a Missile Tower.
Boot Camp Complete: Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Classic mode onEasy.
Boot Camp Dominator: Get to round 100 on Drylands in Classic mode onEasy.
Boot Camp Junior: Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Classic mode on Easy.
Boot Camp Master: Get to round 100 on Skyway in Classic mode on Easy.
Boot Camp Senior: Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Classic mode on Easy.
Commander-in-Chief: Achieve 500 victories.
Crossroads Bronze: Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Extended mode onEasy.
Crossroads Gold: Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Extended mode on Hard.
Crossroads Silver: Get to round 100 on Crossroads in Extended mode onMedium.
Crystal Caves Bronze: Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Extended modeon Easy.
Crystal Caves Gold: Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Extended mode onHard.
Crystal Caves Silver: Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Extended modeon Medium.
Crystal Clear: Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Classic mode on Easy.
Crystalrunner: Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Classic mode on Hard.
Cuts Like Butter: Fully upgrade a Laser Tower.
Daredevil: Get to round 150 on any map in Endless mode on Hard.
Desert Captain: Get to round 100 on Drylands in Classic mode on Medium.
Desertrunner: Get to round 100 on Drylands in Classic mode on Hard.
Diamonds are Forever: Get to round 100 on Crystal Caves in Classic mode onMedium.
Diehard: Play 75 rounds consecutively with 1 life.
Drylands Bronze: Get to round 100 on Drylands in Extended mode on Easy.
Drylands Gold: Get to round 100 on Drylands in Extended mode on Hard.
Drylands Silver: Get to round 100 on Drylands in Extended mode on Medium.
Field Corporal: Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Classic mode on Medium.
Fieldrunner: Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Classic mode on Hard.
Firecracker: Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Classic mode on Easy.
Firewalker: Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Classic mode on Medium.
FLAWLESS!: Achieve victory without taking any damage.
Frostbite Bronze: Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Extended mode on Easy.
Frostbite Gold: Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Extended mode on Hard.
Frostbite Silver: Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Extended mode onMedium.
Get off my Lawn: Fully upgrade a Shotgun Tower
Global Warmer: Fully upgrade a Flame Tower.
Grasslands Bronze: Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Extended mode onEasy.
Grasslands Gold: Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Extended mode on Hard.
Grasslands Silver: Get to round 100 on Grasslands in Extended mode onMedium.
Guerrilla Warfare: Buy and sell 20 towers consecutively.
Hard Worker: Get defeated 100 times.
HARDCORE!: Unlock all achievements.
Heavy Poison: Fully upgrade a Poison Tower.
I Love the Smell of Napalm.: Defeat 5,000 fieldrunners with the FlameTower.
Ice Brigadier: Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Classic mode on Medium.
Icerunner: Get to round 100 on Frostbite in Classic mode on Hard.
Impenetrable!: Destroy 5,000 air units.
Insane!: Get to round 500 on any map in Endless mode on Easy.
Iron Fist: Score 500,000 points on any map in a single session.
It’s Better to be Alive: Get to round 150 on any map in Endless mode onEasy.
Jelly Up!: Slow down 100,000 fieldrunners with the Goo Tower.
Lavaflow Bronze: Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Extended mode on Easy.
Lavaflow Gold: Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Extended mode on Hard.
Lavaflow Silver: Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Extended mode on Medium.
Lavarunner: Get to round 100 on Lavaflow in Classic mode on Hard.
Lemming!: Get defeated 1,000 times.
Mad Scientist: Fully upgrade a Tesla Tower.
Manhattan Project: Fully upgrade a Mortar Tower.
Master Plan: Score 850,000 points on any map in a single session.
Medal of Honor: Unlock 50%% of all achievements.
Mow Them Down: Fully upgrade a Gatling Tower.
Mud on Your Boots: Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Classic mode on Easy.
Mudrunner: Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Classic mode on Hard.
Mudslide Bronze: Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Extended mode on Easy.
Mudslide Gold: Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Extended mode on Hard.
Mudslide Silver: Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Extended mode on Medium.
Natural Born Sniper: Get to round 100 on Mudslide in Classic mode onMedium.
No Mercy: Defeat 5,000 fieldrunners.
Nuclear Dawn: Defeat 15,000 fieldrunners with the Mortar Tower.
Nuclear Winter: Fully upgrade an Ice Tower.
Patience is a Virtue: Get defeated 500 times.
Precious Snowflake: Slow down 50,000 fieldrunners with the Ice Tower.
Purple Heart: Survive any map with only 1 life.
Sky Colonel: Get to round 100 on Skyway in Classic mode on Medium.
Skyrunner: Get to round 100 on Skyway in Classic mode on Hard.
Skyway Bronze: Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Easy.
Skyway Gold: Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Hard.
Skyway Silver: Get to round 100 on Skyway in Extended mode on Medium.
Slice Them Up!: Defeat 5,000 fieldrunners with the Laser Tower.
Slow Mow!: Fully upgrade a Goo Tower.
Solar Flare: Fully upgrade a Plasma Tower.
Statistic: Defeat 100,000 fieldrunners.
Strategic Genius: Get to round 250 on any map in Endless mode on Medium.
Super Volcano: Fully upgrade a Lava Tower.
They Keep Coming, I Keep Gunning: Defeat 25,000 fieldrunners.
THIS IS SPARTA!: Achieve 100 victories without losing any lives.
Time Flies: Get to round 250 on any map in Endless mode on Easy.
War Hero: Achieve 100 victories.
Warming Up: Score 100,000 points on any map in a single session.
Easter eggs
Currently we have no easter eggs for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Glitches
Currently we have no glitches for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
Guides
Currently we have no guides or FAQs for Fieldrunners yet. If you have any unlockables please feel free to submit. We will include them in the next post update and help the fellow gamers. Remeber to mention game name while submiting new codes.
0 notes