#iranian oil crisis

[quakerjoe]

Here, I'll do it FOR you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution

I was about ten when this went down. I watched as a country that wasn't all that different from us go right down the shitter for all females in Iran. We, the USA, built that and we're about to do it here at home.

Tehrain in the 60s or early 70s. Women went to school/college. They dressed like this. They were career oriented people.

And today:

This conversion to a government based on far, far right religious beliefs led to:

Overthrow of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and monarchy

Constitution of the Islamic Republic replaced Persian Constitution of 1906 with referendum

Ruhollah Khomeini becomes the new Supreme Leader of Iran

Iran hostage crisis

Consolidation of the Iranian Revolution

Beginning of the Iran–Iraq War

Hijab for all women by law

1979 oil crisis

Massive exile that characterizes a large portion of today's Iranian diaspora

Islamic revival worldwide[3]

International sanctions against Iran

Anti-Americanist regime change

Iran designated state-sponsored of terrorism

This is literally where we're headed if we don't stomp out the GOP today. Side with them, either by voting for them or by simply doing nothing, at not only your own peril but sooner or later it'll be someone you love and deeply care about and by then it's too late to change your mind.

[girlactionfigure]

🔵 FRIDAY - ISRAEL REALTIME - Connecting to Israel in Realtime

Erev Shabbat - Parshat Pinchas - Numbers 25:11 - Aaron’s grandson Pinchas is rewarded for his act of zealotry in killing the Simeonite prince Zimri and the Midianite princess who was his paramour.

▪️ISRAEL REALTIME under attack… multiple hack attempts to take control of our WhatsApp groups. If posts turn weird or no posts, see links at bottom for alternatives.

▪️WITH THE OLYMPICS SCHEDULED TO START TONIGHT.. (Israel time) France hit with a major cyber attack disabling much of the national train service as well as arson attacks disabling numerous lines.  Israeli team under heavy threat from Iranian groups.

▪️THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS.. from yesterday’s Netanyahu Biden meeting: Biden expressed the need to close the remaining gaps and reach a hostage deal as soon as possible. He also raised the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the need to remove obstacles to the flow of humanitarian aid and the critical importance of protecting civilian lives during military operations. 

.. The President also emphasized the commitment of the US to the security of Israel against the threats from Iran and its affiliates, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

.. VP to PM Netanyahu: Kamala Harris- "Let's get to the deal now"; "The two-state solution - the only way to a safe and Jewish democratic state"

▪️A HERO SOLDIER HAS FALLEN.. Moti Rave, 37, from Shani, fell in battle in Gaza.  May his family be comforted among the mourners of Zion and Jerusalem, and may G-d avenge his blood!

.. 330 hero soldiers have fallen in the offensive against Hamas.

▪️MORE HOUTHI THREATS.. Military sources in Sana'a (Yemen) to the Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper: "Yemen's response to the Israeli attack will not be limited to one or two operations."  (( Noting these guys love their propaganda, but they also tend to follow through and don’t seem to care at the cost. ))

▪️HAMAS ARRESTS.. a wave of arrests by Hamas against Fatah operatives throughout the Strip in recent days, with an emphasis on the northern part of the Strip, just a few days after the signing of the "Beijing Declaration" regarding Palestinian internal reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.

▪️HAMAS DAMAGE?  Palestinian sources to Reuters:  "A communication network built by Hamas before the war was severely damaged. The loss of personnel and the destruction of the communication network meant that centralized decision-making collapsed."

▪️ECONOMY - GAS PRICE DROP.. gasoline prices expected to drop 17 agarot per liter, due to exchange rates and world oil prices.

🔸DEAL NEWS.. Reuters: Hamas rejects Israel's demand to check those returning to the northern Gaza Strip to make sure there are no terrorists among them (and to make sure there are no HOSTAGES among them, oh and no weapons.)

.. Suleiman Masveda:  Netanyahu demands more live hostages in the first stage, contrary to the position of the security establishment who say "the conditions for the deal are ripe".

.. PM Netanyahu to the families of the abductees during the joint meeting with Biden: "I am not delaying anything. Within two days an updated proposal will be issued to Hamas"

♦️(Enemy report) The town of Ita al Sha'ab has been under artillery attack and by bombing - more than 75% of the houses are destroyed.

♦️IAF fighter jets, combat helicopters, and drones, struck some 45 targets across Gaza over the past day.  The targets included terrorists, tunnel shafts, buildings used by terror groups,  and rocket launchers previously used to attack the southern city of Be’er Sheva.

♦️COUNTER-TERROR OPS - KALKILYA, JENIN, JERICHO.. overnight.

⭕ US BASE IN IRAQ ATTACKED.. The Ein Al Asad air base was attacked last night with 4 rockets and a suicide drone.

⭕ HAMAS ROCKETS this morning at Yated, Nachal Oz.

[taraross-1787]

This Day in History: Operation Eagle Claw

On this day in 1980, a special operations team attempts to rescue 53 American hostages in Iran. That mission would unfortunately end in tragedy.

The Iran Hostage Crisis had been ongoing for months, ever since revolutionary Iranians stormed the American embassy in November 1979. Jimmy Carter’s administration had tried economic sanctions, freezing Iranian assets, and embargoing oil—and yet the hostage crisis continued. Something had to be done! In April 1980, Carter approved a military attempt to extract the hostages—Operation Eagle Claw.

The story continues here: https://www.taraross.com/post/tdih-operation-eagle-claw

[darkmaga-retard]

Middle East On The Brink. Iran reconsidering attack on Israel. Sinwar chosen to replace Haniyeh as Hamas leader. Tim Walz Set Up Covid ‘Snitch Line’ in Minnesota. The U.K. is heading to CIVIL WAR.

Aug 07, 2024

Middle East On The Brink: Goldman Heads Discuss 'Interconnected Realities' Of Markets & Geopolitics Amid Looming Iran Strike 

"The primary market nexus through which Middle Eastern tensions could have global growth impact would be via the oil market (as was the case in the 1970s)." 

The war drums in the Middle East are getting louder by the hour as the world braces for an imminent Iranian (or Iranian proxy forces) strike on Israel. The US faces the daunting task of defending Israel from Iranian strikes if deterrence missile defense shields fail, which could potentially ignite a regional conflict. Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, and Sam Morgan, Global Head of FICC Sales and Co-Head of One Goldman Sachs, discussed Tuesday the latest developments in the Middle East, structural changes across the region, and how markets are responding to the overseas crisis as war risks soar. 

White House sources: Iran reconsidering attack on Israel

US warned of 'serious consequences' for new Iranian government if tensions in Middle East escalate, Iran delaying attack on Israel due to US pressure, report says.

White House officials on Tuesday said they believe that Iran may be reconsidering its planned attack on Israel, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported. According to Ignatius, Iran may be "reconsidering a plan for major retaliation" for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. However, the officials stressed that Hezbollah "is still a wild card." Initially, it was believed that Israel eliminated Haniyeh. However, the Iranian government has recently concluded that Haniyeh was eliminated by a concealed bomb.

Blinken to both Iran and Israel: No one should escalate this conflict

US Secretary of State calls on both Iran and Israel to avoid escalating conflict in the Middle East: Our commitment to Israel's security is ironclad but further attacks only perpetuate conflict.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday said that both Iran and Israel should avoid escalating conflict in the Middle East. "No one should escalate this conflict. We've been engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, communicating that message directly to Iran. We communicated that message directly to Israel," Blinken told reporters, according to the AFP news agency. "Our commitment to Israel's security is ironclad. We will continue to defend Israel against attacks from terrorist groups or their sponsors, just as we'll continue to defend our troops," Blinken stressed.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

October 15, 2023

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

“We came here with four key objectives,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Egypt: “to make clear that the United States stands with Israel; to prevent the conflict from spreading to other places; to work on securing the release of hostages, including American citizens; and to address the humanitarian crisis that exists in Gaza.”

Blinken has been traveling country to country in the Middle East since shortly after the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas fighters, who crossed into Israel and killed at least 1,300 people, of whom more than 1,000 were civilians, 30 were Americans, 12 were Thais, and 2 were French nationals. They also took 126 hostages, including not only Israelis, apparently, but also 8 Germans, 5 U.S. nationals, and 2 Mexican nationals.

Retaliatory strikes by Israeli forces on Gaza since then have killed at least 2,670 people and displaced almost a million. Israel has stopped food, water, fuel, and electricity from getting to Gaza and has told the more than a million residents in northern Gaza to move south to clear the way for a military incursion. Israeli energy minister Israel Katz said the siege would continue until Hamas frees the hostages. About 500 U.S. citizens are in Gaza.

The Biden administration has been pushing diplomacy to stop the crisis from spreading. On October 11, Blinken traveled to Israel, where he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and then to Jordan, where he met with the head of the Palestinian Authority that exercises limited government in the West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas.

Then he went on to Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Virtually everywhere, he said, he found “a shared view that we have to do everything possible to make sure this doesn’t spread to other places; a shared view to safeguard innocent lives; a shared view to get assistance to Palestinians in Gaza who need it, and we’re working very much on that.”

Blinken emphasized that the U.S. will stand with Israel “today, tomorrow, and every day…in word and also in deed.” He noted that the U.S. has moved a second carrier strike group (CSG) to the Eastern Mediterranean. A CSG is a powerful, flexible group of about 7,500 sailors and Marines on a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, a replenishment ship (which carries oil and supplies), a cruiser, destroyers, and a submarine, as well as various aircraft. 

The U.S. maintains 11 CSGs. Two of them are now in the Eastern Mediterranean not as provocation, Blinken said, but “as a deterrent. It’s meant to make clear that no one should do anything that could add fuel to the fire in any other place.” Sending two CSGs to the region is a strong statement, almost certainly designed to address threats by Iran that it will “respond” if Israel proceeds with a ground invasion of Gaza.

Iran backs Hamas—although there is not yet evidence that Iranian officials directly helped plan the October 7 attack—and also backs Hezbollah, the militant group that controls southern Lebanon. Today, clashes broke out on the border between Israel and Lebanon as Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel and Israeli forces fired artillery back. 

Israel has “the right—indeed it has the obligation—to defend itself against these attacks from Hamas, and to try to do what it can to make sure that this never happens again,” Blinken said. But, he added, “[i]t needs to do it in a way that affirms the shared values that we have for human life and human dignity, taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.”

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres implored Hamas to release the hostages immediately and Israel to grant “rapid and unimpeded access…for humanitarian supplies and workers for the sake of the civilians in Gaza,” which “is running out of water, electricity and other essential supplies.” These two issues must not become bargaining chips, he said. “[W]e are on the verge of the abyss in the Middle East.” Opening a gate between Gaza and Egypt would allow supplies to be brought in and would help to move refugees south, away from the northern areas Israel is expected to attack.  

Relief for Gaza’s people has been bottled up on the Egyptian side of the border as Israeli officials refuse to guarantee their forces will not bomb relief trucks out of concern they are carrying weapons. The U.S. has put strong pressure on Israel to reopen the water supply to Gaza, especially in the southern region since the influx of refugees was already stressing supplies, and today Israel did so, but observers say that without electricity and fuel, the pumping stations and the plants that take salt out of the water don’t work. 

The U.S. is also clearly working to get the U.S. hostages released, but officials will not talk about the details of that operation. 

Today President Biden appointed Ambassador David Satterfield as the U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, charging him with bringing “urgently needed humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people, particularly in Gaza, in coordination with the U.N., Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and other regional stakeholders.” 

A diplomat since 1980, Satterfield has worked in countries all over the region for both Republican and Democratic administrations. He has served as the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, U.S. deputy chief of mission in Iraq, assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, and director general of the body overseeing peace between Israel and Egypt.

“There are two very different visions for the future and what the Middle East can and should be,” Blinken said today. The U.S. stands behind a vision “that has countries in the region normalizing their relations, integrating, working together in common purpose, and upholding and bringing forth the rights and aspirations of the Palestinian people.” 

The other vision is the one Hamas embraces: “a vision of death, of destruction, of nihilism, of terrorism. That’s a vision that does nothing to advance aspirations for Palestinians, that does nothing to help create better futures for people in the region, and does everything to bring total darkness to everyone that it’s able to affect.”

The visions are clear, Blinken said. He said he had no doubt that the overwhelming majority of people in the region would choose the first if given the chance. So it is the responsibility of “all of us who believe in that first path…to make it real, to bring it to light, to make it a clear, affirmative choice. And that’s what we’re determined to do…. If we do that, everyone in this region will be in a much better place and so will the rest of the world.”

And yet that vision must be reinforced at home. The murder of a six-year-old child and the attempted murder of the child’s mother yesterday in Illinois by their 71-year-old landlord prompted the president to warn against Islamophobia. The family was Palestinian and had immigrated to the U.S. “seeking what we all seek—a refuge to live, learn, and pray in peace,” Biden said. The child was born in the U.S.

“This horrific act of hate has no place in America, and stands against our fundamental values: freedom from fear for how we pray, what we believe, and who we are,” Biden said.  

“We join everyone here at the White House in sending our condolences and prayers to the family, including for the mother’s recovery, and to the broader Palestinian, Arab, and Muslim American communities.”

—

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[mariacallous]

Moses may have parted the Red Sea, but now, thanks to a wave of Houthi missile attacks, shipping companies are departing it in droves.

So far, the Iran-backed Yemeni group has launched at least 100 missile and drone attacks against a dozen ships in the Red Sea, according to U.S. officials, and threatened to target all vessels heading toward Israel, whether or not they are Israeli-owned or operated. To avoid suffering the same fate, major energy and shipping companies, including BP and Maersk, have halted their operations there—rattling energy markets and driving up global oil prices and soon everything else. The Red Sea is what connects Asia to Europe, in terms of cargo ships, so disruptions are felt around the world.

The Houthi attacks “have created worries for global freight markets, for the flows of energy commodities, other commodities, goods,” said Richard Bronze, the head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a research firm. “It’s a really critical shipping route, so any disruption risks adding delays and costs, which have a sort of knock-on effect in many corners of the global economy.”

Washington is reportedly mulling striking the Houthi base in Yemen, just days after announcing a multinational task force to safeguard navigation in the Red Sea. But the pledge did little to deter the Houthis, who instead vowed to ramp up their attacks and target U.S. warships if Washington executed attacks in Yemen. 

As the threat of escalation looms over wary shipping companies and energy markets, Foreign Policy broke down the Red Sea crisis—and what it could mean for global trade.

You lost me at Houthis.

Backed by Iran, the Houthi rebel group controls vast swaths of northern Yemen, following a yearslong effort to gain power that ultimately plunged the country into a devastating civil war in 2014. After years of fighting between the Iran-armed Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition, at least 377,000 people had been killed by the end of 2021, 70 percent of whom were children younger than 5, according to U.N. estimates. 

Experts say the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks are part of a bid to shore up domestic support and strengthen the group’s regional standing, while the Houthis’ popularity has only grown since they began waging these attacks. As part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” the Houthis have vowed to attack ships transiting the Red Sea until Israel ends its bombardment of Gaza. They’re Iran’s JV team, but they can make a splash at times.

“They seek to accomplish a more prestigious status in the region, as a resistance movement integral to the Iranian Axis of Resistance,” said Ibrahim Jalal, a nonresident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. The Houthis also “want to be framed as a disruptive actor that’s capable of also offering security by halting attacks,” he said.

By attacking ships heading toward Israel, Iran, through its Houthi proxies, is essentially doing what Washington and the West does with economic sanctions—turn the screws. “What they’ve done is very architecturally similar to Western secondary sanctions,” said Kevin Book, the managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, an energy consultancy. “They have essentially tried to make it so that anyone who has nexus to, or trades with, Israel is subject to attack or risk of an attack.”

Why is the Red Sea so important?

Tucked between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan, the Red Sea is an entryway to the Suez Canal and one of the world’s key global trade corridors, overseeing some 12 percent of global trade and nearly one-third of global container traffic. With as many as 19,000 ships crossing through the Suez Canal annually, the inlet is a strategic pressure point in the energy and commodity trade. 

“There’s always been a lot of interest in oil and freight chokepoints because they may be relatively small geographically but they have global impact,” Book said. “Adversaries of the U.S. and Western allies sometimes seek to capitalize on those chokepoints because it can exert such a significant influence over global dynamics.”

Worried by the Houthi attacks, a growing list of major energy companies and shipping firms—including BP, Equinor, Maersk, Evergreen Line, and HMM—have rerouted their ships or suspended operations in the Red Sea. Rather than steaming through the narrow sea, at least 100 ships have instead traveled around the bottom of southern Africa—a detour that can extend ship journeys by thousands of miles and delay freight by weeks.

For now, that will just mean delays, higher costs, and continued disruptions—not the complete upending of global trade. The attacks have “been enough to make certain shippers hesitant to continue using the Red Sea,” said Bronze of Energy Aspects. “But we’re not at a stage where all shipping is being halted or rerouted or that there’s any sort of likelihood of that scale of disruption.”

How is Washington responding?

Washington, which currently has at least three destroyers stationed by the Red Sea, has shot down countless Houthi drones and intercepted missiles launched at transiting ships. To ensure freedom of navigation, Washington also announced this week that it mobilized 10 other countries to form a new task force called Operation Prosperity Guardian.

The operation is set to include Bahrain, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, Spain, and the United Kingdom, U.S. officials said, although details are still murky and there remains ongoing confusion about what it will look like. Italy, for example, has said it is sending a frigate to the Red Sea under its long-standing plans—not as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, Reuters reported. According to the Associated Press, several other countries also agreed to take part in the task force but preferred to remain anonymous. (Many Arab countries don’t want to be seen as defending Israel just now.)

That “underline[s] how tricky it’s been to assemble this coalition and perhaps the limited enthusiasm for many countries for being too visible in confronting this threat and in standing sort of shoulder to shoulder with the U.S. on this issue,” Bronze said.

Apparently undeterred, the Houthis have vowed to continue the fight. “Even if America succeeds in mobilizing the entire world, our military operations will not stop unless the genocide crimes in Gaza stop and allow food, medicine, and fuel to enter its besieged population, no matter the sacrifices it costs us,” Mohammed al-Bukaiti, a senior Houthi official, posted on X, formerly Twitter.

That could mean continued uncertainty for energy and shipping companies, many of which are waiting for more robust reassurances and greater stability until they feel comfortable resuming operations in the Red Sea.

“From a shipping company or a tanker company perspective, I think it’s probably safe to say that they’re going to err on the side of caution until they have some sense that the underlying risks have changed,” said Book of ClearView. Maersk, for instance, acknowledged that its shipping diversions would disrupt operations but stressed that the safety of its crews is paramount.

More fireworks could soon come. Washington is reportedly considering military strikes targeting the Houthis’ base in Yemen if the task force fails to thwart future attacks. The Houthis have threatened to strike U.S. warships in response, potentially paving the way for future escalations. 

The United States could also snap back previously levied sanctions on key Houthi figures as a dissuasive measure—but Saudi Arabia isn’t sold on that idea, since Riyadh is trying to negotiate an end to the yearslong quagmire in Yemen and worries that heavy-handed U.S. tactics could complicate its withdrawal.

What exactly is Saudi Arabia’s calculus here? 

After years of involvement in the Yemen war, Riyadh wants out. Saudi Arabia has been working to extricate itself from that war and to make peace with both Tehran—the two powers normalized relations in March—and the Houthis. 

As Saudi Arabia and the Houthis inch closer to securing a peace agreement, experts say Riyadh has adopted a cautious approach, wary of taking any steps that could jeopardize its fragile detente with Tehran or derail peace talks. But continued escalations in the Red Sea could throw a wrench in Riyadh’s plans. 

“If the U.S. were to attack targets in Yemen, not only could it threaten the truce that Saudi Arabia has struck with the Houthis, but it could interfere with that detente between Iran and the kingdom,” Book said. And that could threaten what is still one of the world’s biggest oil producers and exporters at a time when crude oil is already trading north of $70 a barrel.

“If that were to happen,” Book said, “then risks to production could come back, and that would change the picture, potentially adding more upside risk to the crude price.”

[maaarine]

Bibliography: articles posted on this blog in 2023

Posted in January

To grasp how serotonin works on the brain, look to the gut (James M Shine, Psyche, Jan 03 2023)

Thousands of records shattered in historic winter warm spell in Europe (Ian Livingston, The Washington Post, Jan 02 2023)

“Il faut que tu sois belle maintenant” : en Égypte, des femmes libérées du voile restent prisonnières des diktats (Aliaa Talaat, Al-Manassa via Courrier International, 20 nov 2022)

Mystery of why Roman buildings have survived so long has been unraveled, scientists say (Katie Hunt, CNN, Jan 06 2023)

Colombia’s surrogacy market: Buying a baby for $4,000 (Lucía Franco, El País, Jan 04 2023)

How to spot an eating disorder (Phillip Aouad & Sarah Maguire, Psyche, Jan 11 2023)

UAE sparks furious backlash by appointing Abu Dhabi oil chief as president of COP28 climate summit (Sam Meredith, CNBC, Jan 12 2023)

Don’t tell me that David Carrick’s crimes were ‘unbelievable’. The problem is victims aren’t believed (Marina Hyde, The Guardian, Jan 17 2023)

Baromètre Sexisme 2023 : "La situation est alarmante", estime le Haut Conseil à l'Égalité (Juliette Geay, Radio France, 23 janvier 2023)

—

Posted in February

Spain approves menstrual leave, teen abortion and trans laws (NPR, Feb 16 2023)

Are Men the Overlooked Reason for the Fertility Decline? (Jessica Grose, The New York Times, Feb 15 2023)

American teenage girls are experiencing high levels of emotional distress. Why? (Moira Donegan, The Guardian, Feb 16 2023)

Figures that lay bare the shocking scale of toxic influencer Andrew Tate’s reach among young men (Maya Oppenheim, The Independent, Feb 17 2023)

Why psychological research on child sex offenders is important (Meetali Devgun, Psyche, Feb 22 2023)

Derrière les chiffres des féminicides, des visages et un continuum de violences contre les femmes (Fanny Declercq, Le Soir, 27 fév 2023)

—

Posted in March

English is not normal (John McWhorter, Aeon, Nov 13 2015)

Are Iranian schoolgirls being poisoned by toxic gas? (BBC News, March 03 2023)

‘Why do we need a supermodel?’: Backlash after Fifa makes Adriana Lima Women’s World Cup ambassador (Henry Belot, The Guardian, March 02 2023)

New Human Metabolism Research Upends Conventional Wisdom about How We Burn Calories (Herman Pontzer, Scientific American, Jan 01 2023)

Polish woman found guilty of aiding an abortion in landmark trial (Harriet Barber, The Telegraph, March 14 2023)

How Diet Builds Better Bones: Surprising Findings on Vitamin D, Coffee, and More (Claudia Wallis, Scientific American, Jan 01 2023)

Met police found to be institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic (Vikram Dodd, The Guardian, March 21 2023)

Chinese Dating App Does the Swiping for Singles to Find Love (Nikki Main, Gizmodo, March 21 2023)

Aphantasia can be a gift to philosophers and critics like me (Mette Leonard Høeg, Psyche, March 20 2023)

—

Posted in April

Facts Don’t Change Minds – Social Networks, Group Dialogue, and Stories Do (Anne Toomey, The LSE Impact Blog, Jan 24 2023)

Uganda’s failure to jail child rapists as teen pregnancies soar (Tamasin Ford, BBC News, April 17 2023)

Italy risks ‘ethnic replacement’ because of low birth rate and high immigration, says minister (Nick Squires, The Telegraph, April 19 2023)

Putin, Trump, Ukraine: how Timothy Snyder became the leading interpreter of our dark times (Robert P Baird, The Guardian, March 30 2023)

India overtakes China to become world’s most populous country (Hannah Ellis-Petersen, The Guardian, April 24 2023)

—

Posted in May

Des crèches ferment toutes les semaines, « et ce n’est pas près de s’arrêter » (Le Soir, 5 mai 2023)

People in comas showed ‘conscious-like’ brain activity as they died, study says (Hannah Devlin, The Guardian, May 01 2023)

Chinese woman appeals in battle for right to freeze her eggs (The Guardian, May 09 2023)

Women CEOs: Why companies in crisis hire minorities - and then fire them (The Guardian, DG McCullough, Aug 08 2014)

Glass cliffs: firms appoint female executives in times of crisis as a signal of change to investors (Max Reinwald and Johannes Zaia and Florian Kunze, LSE Business Review, Aug 19 2022)

—

Posted in June

Afghan women in mental health crisis over bleak future (Yogita Limaye, BBC News, June 05 2023)

Support Of Amber Heard Alongside French Feminists & Cinema Figures (Melanie Goodfellow, Deadline, June 05 2023)

Why is Japan redefining rape? (Tessa Wong & Sakiko Shiraishi, BBC News, June 07 2023)

Catching the men who sell subway groping videos (Zhaoyin Feng & Aliaume Leroy & Shanshan Chen, BBC News, June 08 2023)

Netherlands to provide free sun cream to tackle record skin cancer levels (Kate Connolly, The Guardian, June 12 2023)

The Cause of Depression Is Probably Not What You Think (Joanna Thompson, Quanta Magazine, Jan 26 2023)

—

Posted in July

‘Farsighted impulsivity’ and the new psychology of self-control (Adam Bulley, Psyche, Feb 03 2021)

Can a perfectionist personality put you at risk of migraines? (Shayla Love, Psyche, July 25 2023)

—

Posted in August

How Loneliness Reshapes the Brain (Marta Zaraska, Quanta Magazine, Feb 28 2023)

Why religious belief provides a real buffer against suicide risk (David H Rosmarin, Psyche, Aug 07 2023)

—

Posted in September

What Are Dreams For? (Amanda Gefter, The New Yorker, Aug 31 2023)

Rape Cases Seize Italy’s Attention and Expose Cultural Rifts (Gaia Pianigiani, The New York Times, Sep 03 2023)

Councils in England in crisis as Birmingham ‘declares itself bankrupt’ (Heather Stewart and Jessica Murray, The Guardian, Sep 05 2023)

Nearly one in three female NHS surgeons have been sexually assaulted, survey suggests (Jamie Grierson, The Guardian, Sep 12 2023)

Domination and Objectification: Men’s Motivation for Dominance Over Women Affects Their Tendency to Sexually Objectify Women (Orly Bareket and Nurit Shnabel, Sep 09 2019)

In Spain, dozens of girls are reporting AI-generated nude photos of them being circulated at school: ‘My heart skipped a beat’ (Manuel Viejo, El País, Sep 18 2023)

When the human tendency to detect patterns goes too far (Shayla Love, Psyche, Sep 19 2023)

—

Posted in October

My Brain Doesn’t Picture Things (Marco Giancotti, Nautilus, Oct 04 2023)

“Inverse vaccine” shows potential to treat multiple sclerosis and other autoimmune diseases (Sarah C.P. Williams, The University of Chicago, Sep 11 2023)

Poland election: exit polls point to Law and Justice defeat as Tusk hails ‘rebirth’ (Shaun Walker, The Guardian, Oct 16 2023)

—

Posted in November

What I have learned from my suicidal patients (Gavin Francis, The Guardian, Nov 22 2019)

Did natural selection make the Dutch the tallest people on the planet? (Martin Enserink, Science, Apr 07 2015)

Tumblr Is Always Dying (Elizabeth Minkel, Wired, Nov 14 2023)

How accurate is the new Napoleon film? Sorting fact from fiction (Andrew Roberts, The Sunday Times, Nov 19 2023)

Far-right party set to win most seats in Dutch elections, exit polls show (Jon Henley and Pjotr Sauer and Senay Boztas, The Guardian, Nov 22 2023)

Climate change: Rise in Google searches around ‘anxiety’ (Lucy Gilder, BBC, Nov 22 2023)

—

Posted in December

The sexual assault of sleeping women: the hidden, horrifying rape crisis in our bedrooms (Anna Moore, The Guardian, June 15 2021)

Afghanistan: Taliban sends abused women to prison - UN (Nicholas Yong, BBC News, Dec 15 2023)

Longitudinal Associations Between Parenting and Child Big Five Personality Traits (University of California Press, Nov 18 2021)

Scientists Pinpoint Cause of Severe Morning Sickness (Azeen Ghorayshi, The New York Times, Dec 13 2023)

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 3.15 (after 1920)

1921 – Talaat Pasha, former Grand Vizir of the Ottoman Empire and chief architect of the Armenian genocide is assassinated in Berlin by a 23-year-old Armenian, Soghomon Tehlirian. 1922 – After Egypt gains nominal independence from the United Kingdom, Fuad I becomes King of Egypt. 1927 – The first Women's Boat Race between the University of Oxford and the University of Cambridge takes place on The Isis in Oxford. 1939 – Germany occupies Czechoslovakia. 1939 – Carpatho-Ukraine declares itself an independent republic, but is annexed by Hungary the next day. 1943 – World War II: Third Battle of Kharkiv: The Germans retake the city of Kharkiv from the Soviet armies. 1951 – Iranian oil industry is nationalized. 1961 – At the 1961 Commonwealth Prime Ministers' Conference, South Africa announces that it will withdraw from the Commonwealth when the South African Constitution of 1961 comes into effect. 1965 – President Lyndon B. Johnson, responding to the Selma crisis, tells U.S. Congress "We shall overcome" while advocating the Voting Rights Act. 1974 – Fifteen people are killed when Sterling Airways Flight 901, a Sud Aviation Caravelle, catches fire following a landing gear collapse at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran, Iran. 1978 – Somalia and Ethiopia signed a truce to end the Ethio-Somali War. 1986 – Collapse of Hotel New World: Thirty-three people die when the Hotel New World in Singapore collapses. 1990 – Mikhail Gorbachev is elected as the first President of the Soviet Union. 1991 – Cold War: The Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany comes into effect, granting full sovereignty to the Federal Republic of Germany. 2008 – Stockpiles of obsolete ammunition explode at an ex-military ammunition depot in the village of Gërdec, Albania, killing 26 people. 2011 – Beginning of the Syrian Civil War. 2019 – Fifty-one people are killed in the Christchurch mosque shootings. 2019 – Beginning of the 2019–20 Hong Kong protests. 2019 – Approximately 1.4 million young people in 123 countries go on strike to protest climate change. 2022 – The 2022 Sri Lankan protests begins amidst Sri Lanka's economic collapse.

[leparoledelmondo]

COP28

Siamo a un momento difficile per la diplomazia climatica. La crisi energetica ha indebolito i già fragili piani di transizione di molti paesi e le tensioni geopolitiche rendono ancora più difficile un dialogo indispensabile per la firma di accordi efficaci. A ciò si aggiunge il neo-presidente di COP28, la conferenza delle Nazioni Unite sul contrasto al riscaldamento globale che si terrà a Dubai dal 30 novembre al 14 dicembre.

Si chiama Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, è emiro degli Emirati arabi, amministratore delegato della società di stato Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), in testa alla classifica delle aziende i cui piani di espansione sono incompatibili con il rispetto degli obiettivi climatici. Sotto Adoc, nella classifica dell’inadeguatezza ci sono giganti come Nationa Iranian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil, China National Petroleum Corporation, Chevron.

Il presidente Al Jaber sarà d’accordo nel mantenere gran parte delle risorse fossili del pianeta sotto terra evitando di emettere altra CO2?

(Fonte: Global Oil & Gas Exit List 2023 - Urgewelde - https://gogel.org/)

[williamkergroach55]

The CIA sets up Daech in Afghanistan

The Central Intelligence Agency's control of the international heroin market was the main reason why the boys got killed all those years in Afghanistan. The sale of heroin provided a hidden financial windfall to America's real bosses on Wall Street. The secret weapon that the globalists were counting on to help them cope with the worst stock market crisis in their history were the poppy fields of Helmand. But, snap! The Yanks got kicked out of Kabul! Fortunately, Langley (CIA headquarters) found a new opportunity to do harm: to create a new caliphate on the doorstep of China and Russia.

The "godfather" Karzai

After the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001, all was well: opium production in Afghanistan had resumed dramatically, overseen by "President" Hamid Karzai, a dedicated CIA agent. Washington had military bases in Helmand, Herat, Nimrouz, Balkh, Khost and Paktia, Bagram, Kandahar and Shindand, in Herat, only 100 kilometers from the Iranian border. They were within striking distance of Russia and China. But since the Taliban chased American soldiers out of their country, nothing is going to happen anymore: Wall Street will not be able to count on the manna brought by Afghan heroin in the face of the stock market tsunami for which it is responsible.

A promising pipeline

The so-called war on terror, led by the United States in Afghanistan, was the usual American politician's blabla. It was all a pretext to threaten Central Asia militarily. The U.S. air bases built in Afghanistan were positioned to strike Russia, China, Iran and eventually the oil-rich countries of the Middle East if they strayed. Afghanistan was right in the path of the oil pipeline that would carry oil from the Caspian Sea to the Indian Ocean. The U.S. oil companies, Unocal, Enron and Halliburton (the company of vicious Vice President Dick Cheney), had arranged a juicy deal: they had managed to secure exclusive rights to a pipeline that would carry natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to Enron's natural gas-fired power plant in Dabhol, near Mumbai, India. That's where the American Deep State was! Happy as a piranha in troubled waters.

Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, a flop

Al Qaeda, too, was a "brilliant" idea of William Casey, the CIA director - Ronald reagan's campaign manager in the 1980s. The idea was to pick up the most fanatical Muslims from all countries and send them to fight the Russian troops in Afghanistan. It was hoped to create a "new Vietnam" for the Soviet Union. The CIA financed the Taliban and Al Qaeda equally, as long as they broke the Communists.

Yet despite the dollars, al Qaeda had recruitment problems. James Jones, President Obama's former national security adviser, was forced to admit under oath to the U.S. Congress that al Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan was "very small." With only 100 members, no more, in the entire country, and not even an operational base, al Qaeda simply did not exist. The "terrorist threat" in Afghanistan was therefore bogus.

Islamic destabilization

After its defeats in Iraq and Syria against the Russians, the CIA is now striking back with a new terrorist state in Afghanistan. Islamic State sleeper agents, are being flown into Afghanistan by helicopter from Pakistan, Iraq and Syria as we speak. Since September 2018, Russian and Kyrgyz political officials have been warning about the arrival of these Islamist troops in Central Asia. The objective of CIA strategists is to sow, as usual, the seeds of trouble in the region. The installation of an Islamic state in the middle of Central Asia would be a new threat to the Russians and the Chinese. The United States is very happy about this, because it will never give up on Central Asia. This region is too important for its destiny as a world power. To achieve this, they need to find an instrument to destabilize the region that serves their geopolitical goals well. An Islamic State is the ideal instrument. 

Islamic State, the American know-how.

The American deep state has a long experience in building terrorist organizations. One recalls that to serve as cadres for the Islamic State in Syria, officers of Saddam Hussein's army had previously been opportunely released from prison by the American military. Washington had then released an obscure preacher named Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi from Camp Bucca, the American prison in Iraq, around 2009. Al Baghdadi was to serve as a messianic figure for a Muslim world heated up by the attacks and massacres in Palestine. Iraqi officers, in particular the former Iraqi intelligence colonel, Hadji Bakr, had designed the structure of Daech. So the Iraqis kept the store running until our scum got Russian bombs on their bearded faces.

Today, the Islamic State is redeploying to Afghanistan. Daech's forces in Central Asia are estimated to already number more than 10,000 men, in Islamist movements such as Hizb ut-Tahrir in Uzbekistan, or Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Islamic Jihad Union in Pakistan. Many of the fighters of Daech in Syria and Iraq come from Central Asia.

Divided Taliban

The Taliban in Afghanistan are divided against this new "Made in America" threat. It is a country of clans. And among them, there are the conservatives, who want to remain among the Pashtuns; the Pakistani agents; and those who favor an alliance with the Islamic State. The latter believe that the Taliban must "modernize" the jihad. The Islamic State in Khorasan (EIK) seeks to absorb the latter to lead the fight against enemies... That Washington will designate for them. Right now, the targets are Iran, China, Russia and their Central Asian allies.

It is in this context that the recent assassination, proudly announced by the Taliban, of the head of the Daech cell responsible for the attack on the Kabul airport, which cost the lives of 13 American soldiers and nearly 170 Afghan civilians in August 2021, takes on all its importance. The war between the Taliban and Daech-K is raging in the newly liberated country.

Daech, an existential threat to the Taliban

Since its inception in 2015, the Islamic State-Khorassan Province (ISIL-KP or ISKP) has taken hold in Afghanistan and has carried out numerous terrorist attacks against government forces and religious minorities. With the Taliban coming to power in August 2021, the group found an opportunity to reorganize and regain ground, particularly in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces. But the Taliban quickly crushed Daech's men in Farah, Logar and Zabol provinces. As a result, Daech is retreating to urban terrorism, targeting mainly government forces and religious minorities, such as the Hazaras. Since the departure of U.S. troops, EI-K has already committed at least 119 attacks, mostly against Taliban officials and fighters. Although the Taliban are Sunni of the Hanafi rite, EIIL-K calls them infidels. Daech also, of course, attacks Shiite minorities, such as the Hazaras. The Islamic State thus seeks to challenge the doctrinal purity of the Taliban, in an Islamist overkill familiar to those who know these circles. Although the Taliban have, for the moment, a superiority in terms of numbers and weaponry, the EIIL-K remains an existential danger for the new Taliban government.

That said, despite EIIL-K's offensive in Afghanistan, the Salafist ideology advocated by the terrorist organization is struggling to gain a lasting foothold in the country. The fanaticism and universalist vision of the EIIL-K are repulsive to an Afghan population that would like all these foreigners to finally leave them alone. The Taliban have set up a counter-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan which shows that they know how to deal with the problem: Salafists are eliminated without trial.

[slutty-urbanist]

Why the Statistic “Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions” annoys me so much.

On 10 July 2017, The Guardian released an article titled “Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions, study says” and since then the internet has used it in the most annoying way possible. But to understand that, we first have to understand the article and the report it’s based on. The article is reporting on the Carbon Majors Report by the Carbon Disclosure Project. The Carbon Majors Report was a novel (in 2017) way of calculating who is responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

The traditional way of calculating responsibility is to base it off of the pollution produced by each country. The advantage of this method is the ability to see the location where pollution is being produced. Another method of tracking pollution responsibility is by the pollution caused by the consumption of each country. The advantage of this method is the ability to see where pollution ends up and which countries are ultimately benefiting from pollution. The Carbon Majors Report’s innovation was to track GHG responsibility by the institution that was doing the polluting and all downstream pollution caused by their activities. Downstream pollution means all pollution caused by other individuals and institutions using the product that the institution sells, eg: someone buying petrol and burning it to drive their car would be accounted as caused by the oil company that extracted the oil.

So what were the results of this method of tracking polluting responsibility? They found that between 1988 and 2015, 100 economic institutions were responsible for 70.6% of global industrial emissions. This is where the Guardian headline came from. Except there’s one discrepancy. The headline left out the word industrial. That might seem like a small omission, but it changes the meaning of the whole sentence. Industrial emissions are emissions from energy use and industrial output and as explained by the Carbon Majors Report on page 7 “Non-industrial GHG emissions consist of carbon dioxide relating to land-use change, and methane from sources such as farming and landfills.” Industrial emissions account for 78.4% of total emissions over the period while non-industrial emissions account for 21.6%. This means that the Guardian headline should have said that 100 companies emit 55% (70.6%*78.4%) of emissions.

So is that all that annoys me about this statistic? That the Guardian got a statistic wrong on a technicality? No. What annoys me about this statistic is the way people use it to shirk their responsibility for stopping climate change. People will often say “why should I have to use my car less? 71% of emissions are from 100 companies.” So why does that annoy me? Well, let’s look at who these 100 companies actually are. Chinese Coal, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, National Iranian Oil, Exxon Mobil. All 100 of the companies are fossil fuel companies (often state owned) that extract either coal, oil, or methane gas. So the statistic could be reformulated as 55% of emissions come from coal, oil, and methane gas, which is just like no shit. So when someone brings up this statistic to avoid personal responsibility what they’re actually saying is “I shouldn’t have to reduce my greenhouse gas emissions because half of emissions are caused by fossil fuels.” Not a coherent argument.

But, I hear you object, “Personal responsibility is not enough to solve the climate crisis, collective action is necessary.” And I agree, collective action is necessary, which brings me to the way that people use this statistic that annoys me the most. Which is when people use it to deny collective responsibility. The most common form this takes is saying “Why should I have to pay carbon tax, 100 companies cause 71% of emissions.” This boils my blood. Why should you have to pay carbon tax because you contribute to the 55% of emissions caused by fossil fuels? Why should you have to be slightly inconvenienced for the pollution you caused? Because if you’re going to benefit from polluting the atmosphere, then you should pay the costs of your actions.

And that’s why the way people use the statistic “Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions” annoys me.

Bibliography

Guardian: Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions, study says

CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017

Fact Checking the Internet’s Favourite Statistic by hazelisonline

Corporate Greenhouse Gas Protocol

Sector by sector: where do global greenhouse gas emissions come from?

[dan6085]

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, ruled from 1941 until his overthrow in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution. His reign was marked by efforts to modernize Iran, increase its international stature, and maintain close ties with the West, particularly the United States. However, his policies also led to significant social unrest and opposition, ultimately leading to his downfall. Here’s a detailed timeline of his life and reign:

### **Early Life and Ascension to the Throne**

- **October 26, 1919**: Mohammad Reza Pahlavi is born in Tehran, Iran, to Reza Khan (later Reza Shah Pahlavi) and Queen Tadj ol-Molouk.

- **1931-1936**: Mohammad Reza is sent to Institut Le Rosey, a prestigious Swiss boarding school, for his education.

- **1936**: Returns to Iran and attends the local military academy, following his father’s wishes.

- **September 16, 1941**: Following the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran during World War II, Reza Shah Pahlavi is forced to abdicate in favor of his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who becomes Shah at the age of 21.

### **Early Reign and Post-War Period**

- **1941-1946**: Mohammad Reza’s early reign is marked by limited power as Iran is occupied by British and Soviet forces. The young Shah struggles to assert his authority in a politically unstable environment.

- **1946**: The Soviet Union refuses to withdraw its troops from northern Iran, leading to the Azerbaijan Crisis. With American support, Iran successfully pressures the Soviets to withdraw, enhancing Mohammad Reza’s international standing.

- **1949**: Survives an assassination attempt by a member of the Tudeh Party, a communist group. This event leads to the banning of the Tudeh Party and the Shah consolidating more power.

### **Nationalization of Oil and the Mossadegh Crisis**

- **1951**: Mohammad Mossadegh is elected Prime Minister and moves to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, challenging British control over Iran’s oil resources.

- **1953**: The Shah faces a major political crisis as Mossadegh’s popularity grows. After a failed attempt to dismiss Mossadegh, the Shah briefly flees Iran. However, Operation Ajax, a CIA and MI6 orchestrated coup, successfully overthrows Mossadegh, and the Shah returns to power with increased authority.

### **Consolidation of Power and the White Revolution**

- **1953-1963**: The Shah consolidates his power, suppressing political opposition and expanding the role of the SAVAK, the secret police, to enforce his rule.

- **1963**: Launches the White Revolution, a series of reforms aimed at modernizing Iran and reducing the influence of traditional elites. These reforms include land redistribution, women’s suffrage, and educational reforms. While these efforts lead to economic and social progress, they also generate opposition, particularly from religious leaders like Ayatollah Khomeini.

### **Economic Growth and the Persepolis Celebration**

- **1960s-1970s**: Iran experiences rapid economic growth, fueled by oil revenues. The Shah embarks on ambitious infrastructure projects and strengthens Iran’s military with substantial purchases from the United States.

- **October 1971**: Hosts the lavish 2,500-year celebration of the Persian Empire at Persepolis, showcasing Iran’s ancient heritage and the Shah’s desire to position himself as the heir to a glorious past. However, the extravagance of the event sparks criticism both domestically and internationally.

### **Increasing Opposition and the Islamic Revolution**

- **1975**: The Shah abolishes the multi-party system in favor of a single-party state under the Rastakhiz Party, further centralizing power. This move alienates many Iranians who see it as a step towards dictatorship.

- **1976**: In an attempt to modernize Iranian society further, the Shah introduces reforms like changing the calendar from Islamic to an imperial calendar. These moves alienate religious leaders and traditionalists.

- **1977**: Opposition to the Shah’s rule intensifies. Human rights abuses by SAVAK, economic difficulties, and the widening gap between the elite and the general population contribute to growing discontent. The Carter administration in the U.S. pressures the Shah to allow for more political freedom and human rights, leading to limited liberalization.

### **The Decline and Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty**

- **January 1978**: Mass protests begin, initially sparked by an article attacking Ayatollah Khomeini. These protests, fueled by a combination of religious, economic, and political grievances, grow in scale and intensity.

- **1978**: The situation in Iran deteriorates rapidly as strikes and demonstrations paralyze the country. The Shah tries various measures, including concessions and repression, but fails to quell the unrest.

- **January 16, 1979**: Facing massive opposition, the Shah and his family leave Iran for exile, marking the end of the Pahlavi dynasty. He travels to Egypt, Morocco, the Bahamas, and Mexico in search of a permanent home.

- **February 1, 1979**: Ayatollah Khomeini returns to Iran from exile, and the Islamic Revolution quickly takes control of the country.

### **Exile and Death**

- **1979**: The Shah’s health deteriorates due to cancer. His request for asylum in the United States, primarily for medical treatment, exacerbates the situation in Iran, leading to the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis.

- **1980**: After being denied asylum by several countries, the Shah finds refuge in Egypt under President Anwar Sadat’s protection.

- **July 27, 1980**: Mohammad Reza Pahlavi dies of complications related to non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in Cairo, Egypt. He is buried in the Al Rifa'i Mosque in Cairo, alongside other members of the Egyptian royal family.

### **Legacy**

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s reign is remembered for its significant modernization efforts, economic development, and the secularization of Iran. However, his authoritarian rule, reliance on the West, especially the United States, and failure to address the grievances of various social groups led to widespread opposition. His overthrow in 1979 not only ended the Pahlavi dynasty but also transformed Iran into an Islamic Republic, marking a significant turning point in the country’s history.

His legacy remains deeply contested, with some viewing him as a progressive leader who sought to modernize Iran, while others criticize him for his autocratic rule and the repression of political freedoms. The consequences of his reign and subsequent overthrow continue to influence Iranian politics and society to this day.

[sa7abnews]

Stock markets plunge on US recession fears

New Post has been published on https://sa7ab.info/2024/08/06/stock-markets-plunge-on-us-recession-fears/

Stock markets plunge on US recession fears

Wall Street stocks deepened their losses Monday, and Tokyo had its worst day in 13 years as panic spread across trading floors over fears of recession in the United States.

Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index tumbled 6.3 percent at the open, with the S&P 500 falling 4.2 percent and the Dow dropping 2.7 percent.

Major European indices were down around three percent in afternoon trading.

Tokyo’s Nikkei sank more than 12 percent on its worst day since the 2011 Fukushima crisis. It also suffered its biggest-ever points loss, shedding 4,451.28.

A weak US jobs report on Friday triggered the market meltdown. The report showed that the unemployment rate reached its highest since October 2021.

The report came two days after the US Federal Reserve decided, as expected, to keep interest rates at a 23-year high while signalling that it could cut them in September.

“Investors are gripped by fears that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to pivot on its policy, especially in light of Friday’s disappointing US jobs data and a slew of other weak economic indicators pointing toward a looming recession,” said market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and FOREX.com.

Friday’s much-anticipated report showed the US economy added just 114,000 jobs last month, well down from June and far fewer than expected, and unemployment at 4.3 percent.

The news came a day after lacklustre factory data.

Investors fear the Fed’s high rates, which aimed to slash inflation, could be plunging the economy towards a hard landing and recession instead of the soft landing sought by the central bank.

Expectations that the Fed could cut more aggressively than expected starting in September or even be forced into an emergency reduction this month sent the dollar sliding against the yen.

The Japanese currency was boosted also by a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike last week, analysts said.

The dollar went under 142 yen for the first time since January.

Bitcoin, oil retreat

Markets tumbled on Monday, with Brent North Sea crude reaching its lowest level in over six months despite heightened Middle East tensions. Bitcoin slumped more than 10 percent to under $50,000.

“Aside from ongoing worries about a US recession, the continuation of the pressure on markets has been attributed to the unwinding of the yen carry trade and geopolitical fears surrounding an expected Iranian military retaliation against Israel after Israel killed a high-ranking Iranian military official,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.

Many investors have borrowed at low interest rates in a weak yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, but the abrupt surge in the yen and interest rate moves are upending the trade.

Some analysts pointed to the “Sahm rule”, which says an economy is in the early stages of recession if the three-month moving average of unemployment is 0.5 percentage points above its low over the previous 12 months. That was triggered by Friday’s data.

O’Hare also noted big falls in tech and semiconductor shares.

That helped fuel sharp drops in Asia markets, and US tech shares also pulled down Wall Street indices.

Shares in AI chip manufacturer Nvidia plunged 14.6 percent at the start of trading on Monday.

Shares in Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, slumped 7.2 percent.

Microsoft and Google’s parent company, Alphabet’s shares, were down around five percent. 

Commodities under pressure

Commodities, including oil, natural gas, metals and agricultural products, also joined the global sell-off in equities.

Commodities had already taken a hit in recent weeks, weighed down by a sluggish economy in top buyer China, with crude oil down around 5% last week, copper hitting a four-month low on the London Metal Exchange, and corn near its weakest since 2020.

Crude oil dropped around 1 percent on Monday in volatile trade, less than losses on major equity indexes as US recession fears and possible implications for oil demand were somewhat mitigated by price support from rising tensions in the Middle East.

Copper prices tumbled over 3 percent to 4-1/2 month lows as a deteriorating demand outlook in China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies, triggered a sell-off of the metal used in power and construction.

Gold was last down around 2 percent.

European gas, power, and carbon contracts also fell.

European benchmark gas for the month ahead sank around 4% from the previous session, under pressure from panic selling in line with the wider sell-off as well as other factors, according to one trader.

[darkmaga-retard]

https://www.globalresearch.ca/new-energy-holding-co-piloted-russia-china/5867552

New Energy Holding Co-piloted by Russia and China? Oil Dependence in the Next Decade

Russia and China have sealed a stratospheric oil contract, one of the largest in history

By Germán Gorraiz López

Global Research, September 11, 2024

Since alternative energies still need huge subsidies to be viable in developing countries, the practice of fracking (kind of universal panacea that will solve the energy problems of humanity), environmental concerns and the inertia of oil assets will not allow large companies to abandon their current equipment and infrastructure, it follows that the world economy will continue to gravitate towards oil dependence in the next decade.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production in Russia reached its historic high (11.41 million barrels per day) in 1988 when it was still part of the Soviet Union, but after the decline caused by the economic crisis of 2008, production has been growing to reach 10.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 with a 20-year expiry date.

Russia and China have sealed a stratospheric oil contract that becomes one of the largest in the history of the energy industry by which the Russian company Rosneft, (the country’s largest oil company), will supply the Asian giant for 25 years with $270 billion. 

This, together with the mega gas contract signed by Russia’s Gazprom and China’s CNPC, which will supply 38,000 cubic meters of natural gas to the Asian country for an amount of approximately $400 billion and with a duration of 30 years through the pipeline Sila Sibiri (The Siberian Force), would lay the economic foundations of the Euro-Asian Union that began its work on January 1, 2015 as an economic and military alternative to the US project of creating a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP for its acronym in English).

Regarding Venezuela, according to a report by OPEC, crude oil production in the first quarter of 2024 would have risen to almost 900,000 bpd (4.28% increase over 2023) and exports increased by 7.4% to reach 27.6 million barrels. Venezuela has reportedly signed an agreement whereby the Chinese state-owned petro-chemical company Sinopec will invest $14 billion to achieve a daily production of oil in 200,000 barrels per day of crude oil in the Orinoco Oil Strip, (considered the most abundant oil field in the world) and the national hydrocarbon company PDVSA would be in negotiations with Russian Rosneft, Italian Eni and Spanish Repsol to obtain the necessary credits to carry out new projects of crude oil and gas, with which Russia and China would already be “strategic partners of Venezuela”.

In the case of Iraq, the western oil companies’ commitment to a transition towards renewable energy sources would be, being exploited by Chinese and Russian state oil companies such as Lukoil and PetroChina, to acquire a larger portion of oil-related assets in Iraq. Thus, according to the Iraqi Oil Ministry, Inpex (Japan’s main oil company, a key ally of the US) was to sell its 40% stake in Block 10 at the Eridu field, one of the biggest oil discoveries of recent decades and which was taken over by Russian oil company Lukoil.

Likewise, US energy giant ExxonMobil has formally abandoned the West Qurna 1 oil field in southern Iraq, handing over its operations to PetroChina, that it retains a majority stake in one of the world’s largest oil fields. Thus, the West Qurna field would have reserves estimated at over 20 billion barrels and represents about 15 per cent of total Iraqi production estimated at over 4 million barrels per day, what would be a triumph of Chinese foreign policy in its strategy to increase its energy sources as well as a severe setback for the US geopolitical interests.

Iran, with the third largest proven reserves of oil and gas in the world after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, is the destination for 80% of Iranian exports of approximately 3 million barrels per day (3% of world production).

[transcriptionexperts]

Al Jazeera: It’s Always About the Oil

The 1953 U.S and UK-backed coup overthrew Iran's democratically elected prime minister Muhammad Musadeq. Mosadeq argued Iran should begin profiting from its vast oil reserves which had been controlled by the company known as British Petroleum (BP).

The coup was led in part by a CIA agent named Kermit Roosevelt, the grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt. The crushing of Iran's first democratic government ushered in more than two decades of dictatorship under the Shah who relied heavily on US aid and arms. The anti-American backlash that toppled the Shah in 1979 shook the whole region. In 1953 the United States together with Britain participated in a coup in Iran that got rid of Musadeq and his government. We’re swept from power in favor of General Zahidi.

The British government has never officially acknowledged its role in the Coup. I don't think at any time we really planned a coup. For over 34 years evidence that has the potential to turn a dark chapter in history inside out. Iran is shaping politics to this day. The United States does not want democracy in the Middle East. His most recent book is titled Oil Crisis in Iran from nationalism to coup d'etat. We are talking about an event 70 years ago that has shaped not only the Middle East, but I think you could say geopolitics in the world today. Irvine Abrahami if you can start off by talking about the significance of this moment. What happened? Why the United States and Britain were so hell-bent on toppling democracy in Iran? Well, the official argument that is constantly repeated was it was to save Iran from communism and the Soviet threat in reality. When you look at the documents there was no communist threat or Soviet interest in Iran. The main concern of the United States was that if the nationalization in Iran of oil was successful, this would set a terrible example to other countries where U.S oil interests were present. Countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Indonesia.

So, the the nightmare in Washington was that if you have a successful nationalization in Iran, this would be a contagious disease that would spread throughout the world and this would change the whole balance of power and this was mainly the main interest. But of course, American politicians don't want to admit that economic issues are at play with their foreign policies, so they've underplayed this. They never mentioned this publicly. What they insisted was the so-called communist threat. The British, in fact, required honest about this. They said they used the bogey of Communism to, basically, persuade people that the coup was justifiable. Documents where the Americans are discussing with the British whether they'll come in and join the crew and they're discussing share of the oil. Basically saying “yeah we'll help you if you can have a slice of, you know, Iranian Oil” Which is exactly what happened.

The British have not admitted to their leading role. It was quick, it was cheap, and Iranians died but who cares about that. So it emboldened them to the to do it again.

(Al Jazeera, Video, Article)

[mariacallous]

In the not-too-distant past, Saudi Arabia would have cherished the opportunity for a joint U.S.-U.K. strike targeting Houthi strongholds. After all, Riyadh fought a brutal war against the group for almost a decade. But today, a Western offensive on the Yemeni group is precisely the opposite of what Riyadh wants as it conducts a delicate peace negotiation with the Houthi leadership to extricate itself from Yemen and, it hopes, permanently protect itself from cross-border attacks.

As temperatures rise in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia has therefore chosen to stay out of the conflict. Instead, the lines of communication between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are staying open as Riyadh avoids overtly siding with Washington, lest it become the target of attacks. For now, this strategy seems to be working—but the larger question remains about whether this will guarantee Saudi Arabia’s protection in the long term.

Early on Jan. 12, U.S. and British warplanes targeted dozens of Houthi military sites in Yemen. A day later, Washington launched new raids on Houthi positions, targeting command centers, ammunition stores, missile launch systems, and drones. Vowing to take revenge, the Houthis fired ballistic missiles at a U.S.-owned container ship on Jan. 15. (Washington retaliated again on Jan. 16.)

These strikes followed two months of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which the rebels claim demonstrate solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Houthis say that these strikes are limited to ships affiliated with Israel; in practice, they have targeted any vessels within range. At least 50 countries have been affected by the nearly 30 Houthi attacks on international shipping so far.

It did not take long for most of the world’s leading container-shipping companies to announce decisions to avoid the Red Sea, a vital waterway leading to the Suez Canal, which handles approximately 15 percent of the world’s shipping traffic and as much as one-third of all global container trade.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent Middle East tour was intended to pressure regional actors to keep the conflict in Gaza contained. However, Persian Gulf capitals know the Houthis—and their limited leverage over them—well, and they did not respond with much. In another attempt, the United States urged the Saudis to take the Red Sea crisis into consideration in their peace talks with the rebels and slow down their negotiations.

Nonetheless, both the Houthis and Riyadh opted to continue their discussions, preferring not to let the Red Sea crisis interfere with their progress. Following the U.S.-British strikes, the Saudi Foreign Ministry expressed its “great concern” and called for “self-restraint” to avoid an escalation.

Riyadh simply doesn’t have the appetite to embroil itself in another intractable conflict with the Houthis. The kingdom has learned from past lessons through dealing with the rebels militarily and is acutely aware that it risks falling directly in the line of fire.

The 2019 Aramco attacks that were claimed by the Houthis—which targeted two major oil installations and forced the kingdom to temporarily shut down half of its oil production—marked a turning point. This was due to the United States’ lack of response. Feeling betrayed by the Americans, Riyadh quickly recalibrated its foreign policy in the years that followed, seeking diplomatic solutions to its regional headaches instead of relying on Washington to come to its rescue.

These days, Riyadh is instead keeping dialogue open with Iran. A day prior to the strikes on Yemen, Saudi  Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan was contacted by his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The last thing that Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, needs is an escalation that disrupts the crucial years leading up to the much-anticipated Vision 2030, an extensive reform plan intended to diversify the national economy. Consequently, the kingdom opted to stay silent amid the Red Sea crisis, hoping that its communication channels with Iran—via a China-brokered deal announced in spring 2023—and the Houthis will shield it from regional turmoil and future Houthi attacks.

These new communication lines are not aimed at stopping Houthi actions in the Red Sea; rather, they are a pragmatic part of a wider effort to isolate the kingdom from any regional escalation, regardless of the circumstances. So far, the strategy appears to be working, and Riyadh has not been targeted. Indeed, part of Saudi Arabia’s decision not to join the U.S.-led maritime coalition against the Houthis is influenced by its experience of bearing the brunt of Iran-U.S. tensions.

Saudi Arabia’s number one priority is protecting itself. The kingdom wants a swift exit from Yemen’s war, and it won’t let the West’s latest spat with the rebels mess this up. Since 2021, negotiations with the Houthis—facilitated by Oman—have been snowballing. Riyadh has finally reached a point of effective communication with the rebels, something that took years to achieve. Hence, Saudi Arabia judges that it is not worthwhile to jeopardize this relationship—which the Saudis see as sufficient to protect themselves from Houthi attacks—just to support the U.S. operations in the Red Sea.

If anything, the recent escalation provided Saudi Arabia with additional incentives to finalize an agreement as soon as possible. Toward the end of November, Riyadh presented a draft proposal to the U.N. special envoy for Yemen, intended to lay the groundwork for future U.N.-led talks between the Yemeni government and the Houthis. Part of the agreement reportedly includes a buffer zone to protect Saudi Arabia’s borders, a top priority for the kingdom.

Riyadh is also feeling smug. The kingdom has long warned Washington about the dangers of the Houthis acquiring more advanced drone capabilities and gaining control of areas close to the Red Sea, but in their eyes, received only lackluster responses. Hence, Saudi Arabia is questioning why it should assist the same Western partners that have spent years criticizing it for its brutal war against the Houthis.

Now that Washington is in the Houthis’ firing line, Riyadh sees no reason to join it there.

But Saudi Arabia’s calculus could be mistaken. A final peace agreement has not yet been secured; what exists is merely a fragile understanding that could collapse at any moment. There is nothing stopping the Houthis from targeting the kingdom—in the Red Sea or its borders—in the future, absent an official peace agreement.

The likelihood of this possibility only increases as the situation escalates. The rebels themselves admit in private that Riyadh’s protection hinges on their decision not to engage in the wider spat. The Houthis are aware of Saudi Arabia’s weak point—its border—and can exploit this whenever they see fit. Just hours after the second spate of strikes made by the United States, the Houthis conducted a military maneuver along the Saudi border, serving as a warning to the kingdom about the potential consequences of siding with the United States.

Complicating matters further, if and when Riyadh decides to resume normalization talks with Israel, the kingdom could once again become a prime target for the rebels. The Houthis have not shied away from voicing their criticism of the Abraham Accords—the U.S.-brokered deal that normalized relations between Israel and some Arab nations in 2020—and this issue has been central to their critique of the United Arab Emirates.

Should Saudi Arabia proceed with normalization talks, there’s a strong possibility that the Houthis might shift the goal posts and declare their intent to target any nation perceived as aligned with Israel, using it as justification to extract further concessions from the Saudis on the peace talks. What is for certain is that Riyadh will need to resume talks with Israel while being mindful of potential future targeting by the rebels.

In an ideal world for the warring sides, their peace talks would remain compartmentalized from the Red Sea crisis. But this is not the reality of today. The region is quickly heating up, and more actors are entering into the fray by the minute that could altogether threaten Yemen’s fragile peace process. If the United States opts for nonmilitary approaches—such as designating the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization—Houthi participation in future U.N.-led peace talks will be compromised, raising the specter of reigniting the local conflict in Yemen and thus ending the de facto truce.

On the other hand, if the United States and Britain continue to strike Yemen, the Houthis could escalate further, as they have threatened to do, by targeting U.S. military bases in the region, including in Bahrain or even in Gulf capitals that they see as aligning with Israel. At the very least, such attacks would completely derail peace talks and force the Saudis to act, plunging Yemen into a much more complex regional war.

Overall, there are no favorable options left for Saudi Arabia in Yemen. While the strategy of compartmentalizing the two issues has succeeded in protecting Riyadh thus far, this is only a temporary bandage absent an official peace agreement. The future of Yemen’s conflict is now inextricably linked to the upheaval in the Red Sea, and the country’s peace process must now take this uncomfortable reality into consideration.