#kherson counteroffensive

[chrysocomae]

[niveditaabaidya]

Kherson Counteroffensive Getting Worse. #kherson #ukraine #kyiv #crimea ...

[mapsontheweb]

Russia's control over the annexed regions of Ukraine as of 14th June 2024

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on 24. February 2022. In the first weeks Russia made significant territorial gains. However Ukraine had won the most important battle of the war: the Battle of Kyiv. Russian troops retreated from Northern Ukraine by April 2022. Russia captured Mariupol in May 2022 following a destructive siege. On 30 September 2022 the Russian Federation formally annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts although not entirely controlling any of them. The Ukrainians launched successful counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, liberating Kherson city. The Russians managed to take Bakhmut and Avdiivka of Donetsk oblast. As of today the war is in a stage called war of attrition with minimal territorial gains and large losses on both sides, however in the past few months Russian numerical advantage resulted in territorial gains for Russia most notably in the Avdiivka sector west of Donetsk city.

by hunmapper

[mariacallous]

In the space of four days, the Russia-Ukraine war has dramatically shifted. The incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia’s Kursk region has quickly turned into the largest territorial gain by either side since the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022. As of this writing, it is still unclear whether thinned-out and poorly prepared Russian forces have been able to halt the Ukrainian advance, with reports of burning columns of Russian reinforcements reminiscent of the early days of the war.

The operation demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to achieve surprise and exploit sudden breakthroughs, something at which Russia has consistently failed since the start of its invasion. It is also the first time Russia has been invaded by foreign troops since World War II, showing Russians in no uncertain terms that the bloody war they unleashed against their neighbor has come home. Ukraine’s Western supporters seem to be on board, with the White House and European Union headquarters issuing statements that it was up to Ukraine to decide on the operation.

Previously, there had been much debate in Washington, Berlin, and among a wildly speculating media about the Kremlin’s supposed red lines that would set off World War III and nuclear Armageddon, with one of the lines being taking the war to Russia with Western weapons. The latter has now occurred. The belief in uncontrolled escalation led the Biden administration and some of its partners to severely restrict both the types of weapons delivered to Ukraine and their permitted range; Ukraine has not been allowed to use Western missiles to hit military installations on the Russian side of the border, for example. Part of the effect and purpose of the Kursk operation could be to demonstrate, once again, the fallacy of the red-line argument.

As the offensive unfolds and Kyiv stays mostly mum on events, it’s still too early to say what strategic goals Ukraine is hoping to achieve. One speculation that has gained a lot of traction is that it could lead to a quicker end to the war. The operation makes it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine retains significant potential to inflict pain on Russia. And if Ukrainian forces can hold on and maintain control of Russian territory—for which they appear to be digging in as they bring in more equipment and build new defensive lines—it could strengthen Ukraine’s leverage in any potential negotiations to end the war. Already, Ukraine’s lightning foray into Russia undermines the widespread idea that Putin holds all the cards to dictate the terms of a cease-fire.

Kyiv seems to be signaling that leverage in negotiations is one of the goals of the offensive. An unnamed advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Washington Post: “This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia—this is what it’s all about.” This dovetails with recent hints by Zelensky that Kyiv was ready to negotiate. In an interview with BBC News in July, he said, “We don’t have to recapture all the territories” by military means. “I think that can also be achieved with the help of diplomacy.” Occupied Russia could be traded for occupied Ukraine: As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt suggested on X, “Would an idea be for both states to retreat to within their respective recognized border?”

If Kyiv seems to be preparing the ground for potential negotiations—by seeking to strengthen its hand and publicly declaring its willingness—it is also a response to several factors.

One is growing war weariness among the Ukrainian population. Although the majority of Ukrainians favor fighting on until all the territories Russia has occupied since 2014 are liberated, the number saying that Ukraine could trade some of that territory for peace has been rising.

Second, there has been growing criticism, particularly in Western Europe and the global south, of the way Ukraine has repeatedly ruled out talks with Moscow. Major substantive issues aside, with the Kremlin apparently back-channeling openness to talks, Kyiv risked being seen as intransigent in preventing an early end to the war.

Finally, Ukraine’s strategic position is risky, even if it holds back Russia and maintains the flow of Western weapons. A victory by Donald Trump in the November U.S. presidential election and a sudden stop of U.S. aid cannot be ruled out, and even a Harris administration may have trouble cobbling together future support packages if the Republicans keep their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Zelensky may have decided to gamble to change and accelerate the dynamics of the war, including greater leverage if negotiations end up taking place sooner than anticipated.

Without much leverage, Kyiv has had to appeal to moral, normative, and legal arguments when communicating with its foreign partners about any peace short of full liberation. In the past, this has led to highly skewed negotiations. In the talks that produced the Minsk I and II accords in 2014 and 2015, Ukraine had such a weak hand that it had to agree to impossible terms: It could only get the Russian-controlled Donbas back if it allowed Moscow’s proxies to become part of the Ukrainian polity through local elections manipulated by the Kremlin, which would have given Moscow a permanent veto over Kyiv’s politics. Previously occupied and annexed Crimea was not even included in the discussion.

In March 2022, direct talks between Ukraine and Russia on the Belarusian border were not a negotiation but Russia’s delivery of surrender terms to Ukraine. In April 2022, negotiations brokered by Turkey in Istanbul also went nowhere: Russia’s price for ending its invasion was a considerable limitation of Ukrainian sovereignty and ability to defend itself. Since then, Russia’s proposal has been for Ukraine to permanently cede, in addition to Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts—including substantial parts that Russia has never occupied.

Not only has Ukraine lacked negotiation leverage, but Russia has also been successful in promoting, to audiences around the world, its land-for-peace approach to ending this round of the war. As Ukrainian counteroffensives after 2022 largely failed and the Russian war machine slowly but steadily took more territory in Ukraine’s east, another Minsk-type deal limiting Ukrainian territorial integrity and political sovereignty seemed to loom on the horizon.

Kyiv has not only changed the military narrative on the ground but may also be trying to change the narrative on negotiations—from a “land for peace” deal to a “land for land” deal. This puts Putin in a bind: Loss of control over parts of Russia proper is an enormous embarrassment for the Kremlin. But since their illegal annexation by Russia, the Ukrainian territories Putin seeks to keep are also part of the state territory he is obliged to defend. That said, in terms of Russian elite and popular perception, the restoration of Russia’s legitimate state territory will take precedence over continued occupation of recently conquered domains—especially if a land swap opens an avenue to the end of Western sanctions.

In a way, the new Ukrainian strategy may provide an opening for doves in the Russian leadership—assuming they exist and have any influence over Putin—to argue that the annexations should be reversed in order to restore Russia’s territorial integrity. As long as Ukraine can hold on to its captured territories in Russia, there will a strong pressure on Putin to return them under Moscow’s control.

None of this, however, changes the most fundamental problem with a negotiated outcome: the fact that Russia has ignored just about every agreement it has signed with Ukraine. But for Ukrainians and their Western supporters hoping for an end to the war, some intriguing possibilities may soon be on the table.

[highlights-of-the-lowlife]

Do you support freedom of the press? The right for people to form political parties, advocate for their preferred policy and vote freely? Because they don't have those freedom in Ukraine thanks to Zelensky who banned opposition parties and newspapers critical of his regime.

cause russia's track record on those is stellar. the kyiv independant criticises govt actions all the time particularly around resupplying and maneuvering in bakhmut. also yeah there's martial law right now cause there's a FUCKING WAR ON. a war ukraine didn't want and didn't start so now its got to be all hands on deck until this shitshow is over.

the people in the donbas and crimea don't have those freedoms either. the referendums were done at gunpoint and many civilians have been executed for not bowing to the mafias claiming to be the government in those regions. hung from lamp posts in public as a threat to those who oppose the kremlin backed dictatorships.

the moment russian speaking ukrainians are on the the ukrainian side of the frontline, they get shelled. remember when kherson forever was the kremlin line? that kherson is russian and will not fall? well after very quickly abandoning the people there to the supposedly brutish ukrainians, russian positions have been shelling kherson from the eastern bank ever since.

do you remember the kharkiv counteroffensive? majority russian speaking city welcoming the ukrainian forces. babushkas despite having very little food because the russians looted all the stores still begging the ukrainian forces to take soup and watermelon. you see the kremlin doesn't care about these people. the ukrainians do.

you can vomit all the words you want about nato and wanting a ceasefire but as far as the average ukrainian goes they want to free their own. they know the suffering thats been happening in the russian controlled territories and they will leave nobody behind if they can help it

slava ukraini

[leeenuu]

In the village of Vavylove, a Ukrainian serviceman embraces his mother for the first time since Russian troops withdraw from the Kherson region, southern Ukraine, Sunday, November 13, 2022. Families were torn apart when Russia invaded in February, as some fled and others hunkered down. Now many are seeing one another for the first time in months, after Moscow's latest retreat amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has retaken a pocket of territory wedged between the regional capitals of Kherson and Mykolaiv and the Black Sea. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

Ukrainian police officers rip Russian propaganda billboards off in the city, after Russia's retreat from Kherson, Ukraine, Wednesday, November 16, 2022. (REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko)

Vyacheslav Lukashuk in Kherson on Monday, November 14, 2022. He said Russian soldiers had beaten him with rifle butts and had tried to suffocate him with a plastic bag for his pro-Ukrainian graffiti. (Lynsey Addario/The New York Times)

Refrigerators stolen by Russian soldiers are seen at their position at a compound of an international airport after Russia's retreat from Kherson, in Chornobaivka, outside of Kherson, Ukraine, Wednesday, November 16, 2022. (REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko)

A boy tramples the Russian flag in central Kherson, Ukraine, Sunday, November 13, 2022. The Russian retreat from Kherson marked a triumphant milestone in Ukraine's pushback against Moscow's invasion almost nine months ago. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

A sniper unit aims towards Russian positions, Kherson region, southern Ukraine, Saturday, November 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

A work of world-renowned graffiti artist Banksy is seen on the wall of a destroyed building in the Ukrainian town of Borodianka, which had been occupied by Russia until April and heavily damaged by fighting in the early days of the Russian invasion, Saturday, November 12, 2022. (REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)

Alesha Babenko, 27, left, Vitaliy Mysharskiy, 14, center, and family member Tanya Babii sit in the yard of the family house in the recently retaken village of Kyselivka, outskirts of Kherson, southern Ukraine, Tuesday, November 15, 2022. As violence escalates in Ukraine abuse has become widespread, according to the United Nations. In September Alesha Babenko and his 14-year-old nephew, Vitaliy Mysharskiy, were arrested by Russian soldiers who occupied their small village of Kyselivka, after taking photos of destroyed tanks and sending them to the Ukrainian army. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

Ukrainian sappers inspect territory during a demining operation of a residential area in Novoselivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, November 16, 2022. (AP Photo/Andriy Andriyenko)

Dancing into the night to celebrate Kherson’s liberation, on Saturday, November 12, 2022. (Lynsey Addario/The New York Times)

[ukrainenews]

Update June 7, 2023

(There are a lot of accusations flying around as to why the Kakhovka Dam ruptured. Ukraine says one thing, Russia says another. Propaganda is everywhere. I personally do not believe that Ukraine blew up their own dam, endangering the lives of thousands of people, ruining acres of farmland, killing countless animals, and disrupting electricity to thousands more. However, I can just report what the news is saying and do my best not to post something I can prove is fake news. Links here and here for charities in Ukraine.)

Under the cut:

Ukraine warned of the danger of floating mines unearthed by flooding and the spread of disease and hazardous chemicals on Wednesday as senior officials inspected damage caused by the collapse of the vast Kakhovka hydro-electric dam.

Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 1,100 metres near the eastern city of Bakhmut in the past 24 hours, Kyiv said on Wednesday, the first gains it has reported since Russia said Ukraine had started a counter-offensive.

Engineering and munitions experts point to a deliberate explosion as the most logical reason behind the Kakhovka dam explosion, the New York Times reported on June 7. A mass humanitarian and ecological disaster unfolded after the Kakhovka dam collapsed around 2:50 a.m. on June 6. According to the Ukrainian authorities, the dam was blown up by Russian forces to prevent a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Britain has said it will increase funding to the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, by £750,000 to support nuclear safety work in Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant gets its cooling water from the reservoir of the Kakhovka dam, which collapsed on Tuesday.

Fighting around Bakhmut “remains the epicenter of hostilities,” Ukraine’s deputy defense minister said Wednesday.

Ukraine warned of the danger of floating mines unearthed by flooding and the spread of disease and hazardous chemicals on Wednesday as senior officials inspected damage caused by the collapse of the vast Kakhovka hydro-electric dam.

Visiting the city of Kherson on the Dnipro river that bisects the country, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said that over 80 settlements had been affected in a disaster which Ukraine and Russia blame on each other.

Blaming the dam's collapse on Russia, Kubrakov said: "They did it in order to free up troops in this direction by flooding this bit of the front line."

Russia, whose troops seized the dam soon after they invaded in February last year, has said Ukraine sabotaged the dam to distract attention from a counteroffensive it said was "faltering".

"I can't even speak now, I can't collect myself," said Lyubov Buryi, 67, who was evacuated from Kherson to a hospital on Tuesday with her 40-year-old son Roman.

"I'm of course awfully angry at (the Russians), I can't even describe it … I don't know what awaits us, our house seems to be destroyed," she said.

Regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin said the water had reached a depth of 5.34 metres (17.5 ft) in some places of Kherson, though he said the rise had slowed and could peak by the end of Wednesday.

In Kherson, a large city about 60 km (37 miles) downstream from the destroyed dam, residents have set up makeshift embarkation points for dinghies that police, rescue workers and volunteers are now using to get around.

Kherson faces the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro, and some residents have come under fire from Russian artillery as they go about their rescue and recovery work. The thud of artillery is heard almost constantly in the distance.

"Water is disturbing mines that were laid earlier, causing them to explode," Kubrakov, dressed casually in a grey T-shirt, told reporters. As a result of the flooding, chemicals and infectious bacteria were getting into the water, he said.

He said Ukraine had allocated 120 million hryvnias ($3.25 million) allocated to secure the water supply in Mykolaiv, another southern city, and 1.5 billion hryvnias had been set aside to rebuild water mains systems ruined by the flood.

EVACUATION The chief doctor of a Kherson hospital, who asked not to be named because he did not want the hospital to risk retribution, said 136 people had been admitted for treatment because of the flooding. Many were elderly.

"These people had difficulties with their psychological state. These are usually older people. (Some of) these people have chronic illnesses which could get worse," the doctor said.

Ukrainian authorities have evacuated people from 24 flooded settlements and at least 20 settlements are flooded on territory occupied by Russian forces, Kubrakov said.

"We see that the occupation authorities are not evacuating people," he said, calling for the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross to help evacuate flood victims in Russian-occupied regions.

Kherson, a city of 279,000 before Russia's full-scale invasion in February last year, was occupied by Russian forces for over eight months until November.

Kubrakov said the water level in the city had risen by 12-16 cm an hour on Tuesday but was now rising at one-two cm an hour.

"It's one of the most terrifying terrorist acts of this war," he said.

($1 = 36.9290 hryvnias)

-via Reuters

~

Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 1,100 metres near the eastern city of Bakhmut in the past 24 hours, Kyiv said on Wednesday, the first gains it has reported since Russia said Ukraine had started a counter-offensive.

Moscow said this week Kyiv had launched a series of assaults in its partially occupied region of Donetsk, which it said it thwarted, and described them as the start of the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Ukrainian officials have said little directly in response to the Russian assertions although a senior security official on Wednesday denied the broad counter-offensive had begun.

"We have made advances of from 200 to 1,100 metres (220-1,200 yards) on various sections (of the front line) in the Bakhmut direction over the past day," Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram messenger, without providing further details.

Ukrainian troops, she said, had been on the offensive in the area for several days and Russian troops were on a defensive footing, aiming to hold on to their positions.

"Our troops have switched from the defensive to the offensive in the direction of Bakhmut," Maliar said.

Russia said last month its forces had captured Bakhmut, site of the longest and bloodiest battle since its February 2022 invasion, though Kyiv said it retained a small presence in the ruined city and was advancing on the flanks.

The Russian defence ministry said on Wednesday Ukraine had mounted attacks near Bakhmut, but that they had been unsuccessful.

Reuters was unable to independently verify the situation on the battlefield.

Maliar said in separate, televised comments that Russia lacked forces in Bakhmut and was bringing in troops from other positions.

Kyiv hopes its counter-offensive will be a turning point in the war but has portrayed assaults under way as localised.

"When we start the counter-offensive, everyone will know about it, they will see it," Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told Reuters.

-via Reuters

~

Engineering and munitions experts point to a deliberate explosion as the most logical reason behind the Kakhovka dam explosion, the New York Times reported on June 7.

A mass humanitarian and ecological disaster unfolded after the Kakhovka dam collapsed around 2:50 a.m. on June 6. According to the Ukrainian authorities, the dam was blown up by Russian forces to prevent a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

According to experts cited by the New York Times, hard evidence of a deliberate explosion was "very limited" given that the dam was located in an active warzone, but "an internal explosion was the likeliest explanation for the destruction of the dam, a massive structure of steel-reinforced concrete that was completed in 1956."

The breach would have required "hundreds of pounds of explosives" to cause the kind of destruction that occurred and "an external detonation by bomb or missile would exert only a fraction of its force against the dam," the experts added.

The dam had previously sustained damage during fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces since the start of the full-scale invasion last year, but the plant was "built to withstand an atomic bomb," Ihor Syrota, the head of Ukraine's state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo, said.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba criticized international media on June 6 that entertained Russian narratives that Ukraine might somehow be responsible for the Kakhovka dam's destruction, saying that it "puts facts and propaganda on equal footing."

Over 1,300 people have been rescued or preemptively evacuated from flood zones in the past 24 hours, according to the Interior Ministry, and relief efforts are ongoing.

Meanwhile, the President's Office reported that at least 150 tons of oil had spilled into the Dnipro River following the destruction of the dam, with the risk of 300 additional tons leaking.

The Agriculture Ministry also predicted on June 7 that the disruption caused to the biodiversity in the region by flooding would have unprecedenced economic and environmental consequences for years to come.

-Kyiv Independent

~

Britain has said it will increase funding to the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, by £750,000 to support nuclear safety work in Ukraine.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant gets its cooling water from the reservoir of the Kakhovka dam, which collapsed on Tuesday.

Ukrainian and UN experts have said the dam’s destruction and the draining of the reservoir behind it does not pose an immediate safety threat to the plant further upstream, but warned that it will have long-term implications for its future.

IAEA head Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement on Tuesday that “our current assessment is that there is no immediate risk to the safety of the plant.” But there are long-term concerns, both over safety and the possibility of the plant becoming operational again in the coming years.

Reuters reports the UK’s permanent representative to the IAEA, Corinne Kitsell, as saying:

Russia’s barbaric attacks on Ukraine’s civil infrastructure and its illegal control of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant runs contrary to all international nuclear safety and security norms.

She added:

I commend the work of the IAEA’s staff in Ukraine and I am pleased that the UK’s additional funding will help to facilitate its vital work, particularly given the additional risk posed by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.

-The Guardian

~

Fighting around Bakhmut “remains the epicenter of hostilities,” Ukraine’s deputy defense minister said Wednesday.

Speaking on Telegram, Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian forces have made gains ranging from 200 meters (656 feet) in some areas to 1,100 meters (3,609 feet) in others, but did not say where exactly.

Maliar also noted that Wagner fighters had largely withdrawn, noting they “remain in some places in the rear” and the large majority of the fighting is now being conducted by regular units of the Russian Federation, including airborne units.

The head of the Wagner military group in Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused Russia of sabotaging his withdrawal from Bakhmut last week, claiming exit routes were mined.

Some context: Bakhmut sits toward the northeast of the Donetsk region, about 13 miles from the Luhansk region, and had long been a target for Russian forces. Since last summer the city has been a stone’s throw from the front lines.

Last month, Russian forces said they had finally captured the embattled eastern city. It followed a months-long slog where Russian soldiers had to grind for every inch of territory.

-CNN

[workersolidarity]

🇺🇦🇷🇺 🚨

UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA NOW SAYS THAT THE FAILED SUMMER OFFENSIVE WAS ACTUALLY A PSY-OP ALLOWING UAF TO GAIN STRENGTH

According to a propaganda video released by the Ukrainian authorities suggests that this summer's Ukrainian Offensive was actually a psychological operation and that the real Ukrainian offensive has yet to start.

The video claims that Russian Forces fell for this maneuver, however it does not explain the tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who were killed as part of the offensive.

"The war is fought not only on the ground and in the air, but also in minds," the video claims at its start.

"Ukrainian psychological operations will be analyzed in the future in textbooks. One of the most successful is the 'counteroffensive'," the video claims.

"For several months we deceived the enemy, claiming that we were leading a large-scale operation."

This stunning claim comes as Russian Forces begin to go on the offensive, as many Ukrainian reserve battalions have been decimated by months of heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia, South Donetsk, Donetsk, and Kherson areas of eastern Ukraine.

The video claims that while Russian Forces were busy engaging with this false "large-scale ground operation," Ukrainian Forces were in fact biding their time and gaining strength while preparing for real assault.

"For several months, the Russians tend to the most powerful of psychological attacks while our troops gain strength and get stronger for the real counteroffensive."

As per the video, no explanation is forthcoming for the estimated 80'000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or severely wounded in this summer's offensive, nor does the video explain where the manpower and equipment that burned in the "false" summer offensive came from or how it will be replaced.

Or perhaps the video's authors believe that all the burning equipment the entire world saw was in fact part of this psy-op, and Ukrainian Military manpower and equipment is still somehow intact.

One can only assume the video's authors think the viewer has not seen such videos and news, or that the viewer writes off such news as "Russian propaganda."

We will wait eagerly for real Ukrainian offensive to begin!

(video subtitles may not be fantastic, I'm subtitling these videos myself)

#source

@WorkerSolidarityNews

[herukapadmajungiansworld]

Incredible timeline provided by Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar summarized the results of 500 days of Russia's large-scale war against Ukraine.

497 days ago, we destroyed the expectations of "Kyiv in three days" and the myth of "the second army of the world". 462 days ago we liberated Kyiv region and the north of Ukraine, the Russian mass media for the first time talked about our retreat as a "gesture of goodwill"

451 days since the defenders of Ukraine sent the Russian cruiser "Moskva" to the bottom of the Black Sea.

380 days ago, Ukraine received the first Himars from the Allies.

373 days , as the Snake Island was liberated.

305 days ago, a counteroffensive began in the Kharkiv region, "an unprecedentedly fast offensive with a cascading collapse of the Russian defense, which shocked the whole world," Malyar recalled.

273 days since the first attack on the Crimean bridge was made to disrupt Russian logistics, and 239 days ago "our Kherson was returned," the deputy minister noted.

113 days ago, Ukraine obtained an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in The Hague.

80 days after we received powerful air defense equipment from our partners - the Patriot system.

65 days since the Russian "supersonic" Dagger missile was shot down for the first time.

"At this very moment, our soldiers are liberating the occupied lands in the east and south in heavy battles. Very soon, we will start training pilots for the F-16. Victory is ahead," she emphasizedIn

[argumate]

Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian military officials and geolocated social media footage confirm that Ukrainian troops have made gains northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City in the past 24 hours and advanced up to 7km in some areas. Russian forces so far appear to be withdrawing in relatively good order, and Ukrainian forces are making expected gains without routing Russian forces, as they did in the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Ukrainian strikes since August have successfully degraded Russian supply lines on the west (right) bank to force Russian forces to withdraw and will liberate Kherson Oblast to the Dnipro River in the coming days or weeks. The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.

[taiwantalk]

melitopol??? "russian convoy was eliminated on the border of vailyivka and melitopol district," but by ukrainian resistance in the occupied territories, which means, it's behind the frontline.

russian forces in kherson oblast are so fucked. they got flooded by their own catastrophic demolition of kakhovka dam, they have no fresh water, they're sick with cholera, they cannot just reinforce zaporizhzhya because that's just what ukrainians want them to do. if russian infantry in kherson oblast want to live, they'd have to retreat to crimea because the line gets congested.

but crimea most likely will just be ordered to prohibit any retreat into crimea.

[my-skull-is-full-of-sunken-ships]

Yesterday events were wierd af, so I brought you memes about Prigozhin's military coup in russian.

We'll start with the telegram channel called "Peduza" - it's a satirical media (named after Meduza - popular independent media in Russia) that makes fun of the news and events in Russia. Here's the first post:

[Russian Ministry of Defence: we have to admit that Ukrainian counteroffensive started in an unexpected place]

And another one that will need a little bit of explaining:

["Russia is here forever" banners started to appear in Moscow.]

Context of the joke is this: when Russian troupes occupied Kherson, "Russia is here forever" banners were all over the place:

But as you may know, the city was freed in November 2022 and those banners were whether took down or replaced with these ones:

[Russia is here till November 11th]. So now phrase "Russia is here forever" actually means "Russia isn't here for long"

Back to memes:

I hope you recognized the big guy - Lukashenko, self-proclaimed president of Belarus, deus ex machina of yesterday's events, who negotiated with Prigozhin and convinced him to back off. Small dudes in his hands are Russian minister of defence Shoigu (on the left) and Prigozhin himself (on the right). The word "мырытес" is intensionally wrong spelled (and also stylized to look Belorussian) "make peace" (миритесь). The original meme looks like this:

Where "ебитес" is also intentionally wrong spelled "fuck" ("now fuck", if you will). The origin of this meme seems to be "now kiss" that exists in English segment of the internet.

And at last this one:

[- Wagner mercenaries going back to Ukraine

- Russians who bought plane tickets for 100k rubles]

(when shit happens, many Russians just pack their bags and leave the country, so of course prices go so high up that only people with money can afford flights outside of Russia in those days. 100k rubles now is about 1200 USD but also keep in mind that most of the people in Russia (especially outside of Moscow) make less than 350 USD per month)

That's it for today, hope you had some fun reading this!

[mapsontheweb]

Russia's control over the annexed regions of Ukraine after 2 years of war

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on 24. February 2022. In the first weeks Russia made significant territorial gains. However Ukraine had won the most important battle of the war: the Battle of Kyiv. Russian troops retreated from Northern Ukraine by April 2022. Russia captured Mariupol in May 2022 following a destructive siege. On 30 September 2022 the Russian Federation formally annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts although not entirely controlling any of them. The Ukrainians launched successful counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, liberating Kherson city. The Russians managed to take Bakhmut and Avdiivka of Donetsk oblast. As of today the war is in a stage called war of attrition with minimal territorial gains and large losses on both sides.

by hunmapper

[mariacallous]

It was almost two years ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As another winter of war arrives, voices skeptical of the country’s prospects are growing louder—not in diplomatic meetings or military planning sessions, but rather in news reports and in expert commentary. Most do not openly argue that Ukraine should simply give up its fight, but the pessimism, buttressed by supposedly pragmatic arguments, carries clear strategic implications that are both dangerous and wrong.

These skeptics suggest that the current situation on the battlefield will not change and that, given Russia’s vastly greater resources, the Ukrainians will be unable to retake more of their territory. They argue that international support for Ukraine is eroding and will plummet sharply in the coming months. They invoke “war fatigue” and the supposedly bleak prospects of our forces.

The skeptics are correct that our recent counteroffensive did not achieve the lightning-fast liberation of occupied land, as the Ukrainian military managed in the fall of 2022 in the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson. Observers, including some in Ukraine, anticipated similar results over the past several months, and when immediate success did not materialize, many succumbed to doom and gloom. But pessimism is unwarranted, and it would be a mistake to let defeatism shape our policy decisions going forward. Instead, policymakers in Washington and other capitals should keep the big picture in mind and stay on track. A Ukrainian victory will require strategic endurance and vision—as with our recent counteroffensive, the liberation of every square mile of territory requires enormous sacrifice by our soldiers—but there is no question that victory is attainable.

Over nearly two years of brutal war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has upped the ante to the point that half-solutions are impossible. Any outcome besides a clear defeat of Russia in Ukraine would have troubling implications, and not just for my country—it would cause a global disarray that would ultimately threaten the United States and its allies, as well. Authoritarian leaders and aggressors around the world are keeping a close watch on the results of Putin’s military adventure. His success, even if partial, would inspire them to follow in his footsteps. His defeat will make clear the folly of trying.

STAGES OF VICTORY

Wars of this scale are fought in stages. Some of those stages may be more successful than others. What matters is the end result. In Ukraine, that means both fully restoring our territorial integrity and bringing those responsible for international crimes to justice—goals that are both clear and feasible. Meeting those objectives would ensure not only a just and lasting peace in Ukraine but also that other malicious forces around the world are not left with the impression that mimicking Putin will ultimately pay off.

The current phase of the war is not easy for Ukraine or for our partners. Everyone wants quick, Hollywood-style breakthroughs on the battlefield that will bring a quick collapse of Russia’s occupation. Although our objectives will not be reached overnight, continued international support for Ukraine will, over time, ensure that local counteroffensives achieve tangible results on the frontlines, gradually destroying Russian forces and thwarting Putin’s plans for a protracted war.

Some skeptics counter that although such goals are just, they simply aren’t achievable. In fact, our objectives will remain militarily feasible as long as three factors are in place: adequate military aid, including jets, drones, air defense, artillery rounds, and long-range capabilities that allow us to strike deep behind enemy lines; the rapid development of industrial capacity in the United States and Europe as well as in Ukraine, both to cover Ukraine’s military needs and to replenish U.S. and European defense stocks; and a principled and realistic approach to the prospect of negotiations with Russia.

With these elements in place, our effort will bring marked progress on the frontlines. Yet that requires not veering off course and concluding that the fight is hopeless simply because one stage has fallen short of some observers’ expectations. Even with significant challenges, Ukraine has achieved notable results in recent months. We won the battle for the Black Sea and thereby restored a steady flow of maritime exports, benefiting both our economy and global food security. We’ve made gains on the southern front, recently securing a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. And elsewhere, we have held off enormous Russian assaults and inflicted major losses on Russian forces, including by thwarting their attempts on Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Despite their gargantuan effort, Russian troops failed to secure any gains on the ground.

Indeed, over the last year and a half, the Ukrainian military has proved its ability to surprise skeptics. Against all odds, Ukrainian forces have liberated more than half the territory taken by Russia since February 2022. This did not happen with a single blow. After the liberation of Ukraine’s northeast in the first months of the war, we lost some ground in the east before regaining momentum—a sequence that demonstrates why drawing broad conclusions based on one stage of fighting is misleading. If the war were only about numbers, we would have already lost. Russia may try to outnumber us, but the right strategy, advanced planning, and adequate support will allow us to effectively strike back.

THE FALLACY OF NEGOTIATIONS

Some analysts believe that freezing the conflict by establishing a cease-fire is a realistic option at the moment. Proponents of such a scenario argue that it would lower Ukrainian casualties and allow Ukraine and its partners to focus on economic recovery and rebuilding, integration into the European Union and NATO, and the long-term development of our defense capabilities.

The problem is not just that a cease-fire now would reward Russian aggression. Instead of ending the war, a cease-fire would simply pause the fighting until Russia is ready to make another push inland. In the meantime, it would allow Russian occupying troops to reinforce their positions with concrete and minefields, making it nearly impossible to drive them away in the future and condemning millions of Ukrainians to decades of repression under occupation. Russia’s 2024 budget for the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, amounting to 3.2 trillion Russian rubles (around $35 billion), is clear evidence of Moscow’s plan to dig in for the long haul and suppress resistance to Russian occupation authorities.

Moreover, whatever the arguments that such a scenario would be less costly for Ukraine and its partners, the reality is that such a negotiated cease-fire is not even on the table. Between 2014 and 2022, we endured approximately 200 rounds of negotiations with Russia in various formats, as well as 20 attempts to establish a cease-fire in the smaller war that followed Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and occupation of Ukraine’s east. Our partners pressed Moscow to be constructive, and when they ran into the Kremlin’s diplomatic wall, they insisted that Ukraine had to take the “first step,” if only to demonstrate that Russia was the problem. Following this flawed logic, Ukraine made some painful concessions. Where did it lead? To Russia's full-scale attack on February 24, 2022. Declaring yet again that Ukraine must take the first step is both immoral and naive.

If the frontline were frozen now, there is no reason to believe that Russia would not use such a respite to plan a more brutal attack in a few years, potentially involving not only Ukraine but also neighboring countries and even NATO members. Those who believe Russia will not attack a NATO country after celebrating success in Ukraine should recall how unimaginable a large-scale invasion of Ukraine seemed just two years ago.

SUPPORTING UKRAINE IS NOT CHARITY

Skeptics also argue that supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom is too expensive and cannot be sustained indefinitely. We in Ukraine are fully aware of the amounts of assistance that we have received from the United States, European countries, and other allies, and we are immensely grateful to the governments, legislators, and individuals who have extended a helping hand to our country at war. We manage the support in the most transparent and accountable way: U.S. inspectors of military aid to Ukraine have found no evidence of significant waste, fraud, or abuse.

This support is not, and never has been, charity. Every dollar invested in Ukraine’s defense returns clear security dividends for its supporters. It has enabled Ukraine to successfully rebuff Russian aggression and avert a disastrous escalation in Europe. And Ukraine has done all this with American assistance totaling roughly three percent of the annual U.S. defense budget. What is more, most of this money has in fact been spent in the United States, funding the U.S. defense industry, supporting the development of cutting-edge technology, and creating American jobs—a reason that some local business leaders in the United States have publicly opposed withholding or cutting military aid to Ukraine.

Moreover, while the United States is Ukraine’s top defense partner—and Washington’s leadership in rallying support for Ukraine has been exemplary and essential—the United States has hardly borne the burden alone. As NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, recently noted, other NATO members, including European countries and Canada, account for more than half of Ukraine’s military aid. A number of countries have provided more support as a percentage of GDP than the United States has: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom. Germany's assistance continues to grow, making it Ukraine's largest European supporter in absolute terms.

Attempts by some skeptics to brand Ukraine’s fight for freedom as just another futile “forever war” ignore these facts. Ukraine has never asked for American boots on the ground. The deal is fair: our partners provide us with what we need to win, and we do the rest of the job ourselves, defending not only our borders but also the borders of global democracy.

The United States has spent decades, and hundreds of billions of dollars, building and protecting an international order that could sustain and protect democracy and market economies, thus ensuring security and prosperity for Americans. It would be foolish to give up on that investment now. If democracy is allowed to fall in Ukraine, adversaries of the United States will perceive weakness and understand that aggression pays. The price tag for defending U.S. national security against such threats would be many times higher than the one for supporting Ukraine and could spark decades of global turbulence with an uncertain outcome.

Scholars and analysts often warn of a World War III involving nuclear conflict between great powers. But they may overlook the risk of a world of smaller hot wars between states, with bigger powers feeling empowered to take advantage of their smaller neighbors—World Wars I, plural,rather than World War III. Without a common commitment to Ukrainian victory, Russian aggression could in hindsight mark the onset of such a world.

LISTEN TO UKRAINIANS

No country in the world desires peace more than Ukraine. It is not our side that wants this war to drag on indefinitely—Putin does. (We have a clear vision of the path to peace, as laid out in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ten-point Peace Formula.) And it is Ukraine that is paying the greatest price for this war. We are losing some of our best men and women every day. There is hardly a Ukrainian family that has not directly felt the pain of war. Our warriors have in many cases been serving for more than 20 months, stuck in muddy or icy trenches under daily Russian bombardment, with no return date in sight; the toll on civilians, whether enduring brutal airstrikes or occupation, keeps growing, and the horror of Ukrainian children being stolen and then “adopted” by Russian families for “re-education” continues to haunt us all.

Yet even with our suffering, weariness, and struggles, Ukrainians are not willing to give up, to opt for “peace” at any price. Eighty percent of Ukrainians oppose making territorial concessions to Russia, according to a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Another poll found that 53 percent of Ukrainians were prepared to endure years of wartime hardship for the sake of a Ukrainian victory. Ukrainians would not be ready to give up even in the event of a significant decrease in foreign military aid: polling in November by the New Europe Center showed that only eight percent of Ukrainians think that such a reduction should push us into negotiations with Russia. (Thirty-five percent said that a Russian willingness to withdraw troops from Ukraine would be the necessary condition for starting talks, and 33 percent said that under no conditions should talks begin at all.)

Western analysts who urge Ukraine to accept a hasty cease-fire on unfavorable terms neglect such views. For years, policymakers and experts in Europe and the United States failed to listen to Ukrainian warnings that both diplomacy and business as usual with Russia were no longer possible. It took a large-scale invasion and enormous destruction and suffering for them to recognize that the Ukrainian warnings were right. They should not fall into the same trap again.

ALLIES AT WAR

In the summer of 1944, in the weeks after the World War II Allies’ D-Day landing, the headlines in allied capitals were often pessimistic: “Allied Pace Slows,” “Delays in Normandy: Overcaution of Allies and Bad Weather Seen as Factors Upsetting Schedule,” “Terrain Slows Tanks, U.S. Officer Explains.” Even after Allied success in Normandy, the massive Operation Market Garden in the German-occupied Netherlands in September 1944 proved challenging. It had been expected to bring the war to a close but instead yielded limited successes and massive Allied losses. Yet pessimistic headlines and disappointing, even costly, setbacks did not cause the Allies to give up.

At the end of last month, I attended a NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels. What struck me most was the disparity between the mood inside the chamber and the mood outside it. On the sidelines, reporters opened their questions by asserting that the war had reached a “stalemate” and that “war fatigue” would cripple support, before wondering why Ukraine wouldn’t offer to trade territory for peace. Yet such defeatist narratives were absent in the official discussions, with ministers making a firm commitment to additional military aid and sustained support.

However prevalent a false narrative of attrition becomes, we should not allow it to set policymaking and our shared strategy on a disastrous course. Nor should we be duped into believing that Moscow is ready for a fair negotiated solution. Opting to accept Putin’s territorial demands and reward his aggression would be an admission of failure, which would be costly for Ukraine, for the United States and its allies, and for the entire global security architecture. Staying the course is a difficult task. But we know how to win, and we will.

[theothin]

The Russian government’s continued failure to put Russian society on a war-time footing will have significant impacts on Russian logistics as traffic from Russian tourism to occupied Crimea jams Russian logistics to southern Ukraine in the midst of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. The Kerch Strait Bridge is along one of two ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supporting Russia’s southern force grouping, with the other route passing through occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Oblasts. This sole remaining logistics route is now a single point of failure for the supply of the large numbers of mechanized Russian forces in southern Ukraine needed to resist Ukrainian counteroffensives. Russian and occupation officials have nevertheless continued to promote occupied Crimea as a tourist destination, however, urging Russian civilians to drive through and to a warzone rather than advising them to avoid it as a responsible government would.[8] Russian occupation authorities recently struggled to mitigate traffic issues just from increased Russian tourism across the Kerch Strait Bridge, as ISW has previously reported.[9] Russian President Vladimir Putin even ordered the use of Russian military assets to ferry tourists across the Kerch Strait.[10] Some Russian milbloggers also suggested that the attack against the Kerch Strait Bridge should not reduce continued tourist flows.[11]

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