#my lady byng nominee

[dougiejack]

THERES MY LADY BYNG NOMINEE

[gothjeffskinner]

MY LADY BYNG NOMINEE WITH THE GOAL!!

[farbutnevergone]

NATEMAC FIGHT NATEMAC FIGHT NATEMAC FIGHT

THATS MY LADY BYNG NOMINEE

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Preview - East Play-in Matchup 2/4: NYI vs FLA

Hello, and welcome back to my series previewing each of the qualifying round playoff matchups! Today, I’ll be looking at the second play-in matchup in the East, the New York Islanders vs the Florida Panthers.

This series will be a rematch of the 2016 Eastern Conference Quarters, a battle which both teams likely won’t have forgotten. The Islanders were victorious in that series in 6 games, with then-captain John Tavares tying Game 6 in the final minute and going on to score the double OT winner to put the Isles through to the second round.

Both of these teams have very different looks now. New York, of course, is distinctly Tavares-less (having left the JT Years and entered the Age of Barzal), and the Panthers have kept their core intact while adding some promising young players and a future Hall of Fame coach in Joel Quenneville. The Islanders won all three games of the season series against Florida in 2019-20.

The Islanders’ defensive style that Barry Trotz began using last season still suits them very, very well. They lost Vezina nominee Robin Lehner to free agency over the summer, but Thomas Greiss - who, along with Lehner, captured the William Jennings trophy for the fewest goals allowed in 2018-19 - has been just as good as he was last year. FA pickup from Colorado Semyon Varlamov has been decent, so their goaltending tandem hasn’t suffered too much from Lehner’s departure. The Islanders still have the 5th fewest Goals Against of any team in the league.

However, New York is, like the Columbus Blue Jackets, another example of a team that finds success by commitee. The Islanders just do it a bit better. They have five players who have scored at least 40 points (nearly six if you count Anthony Beauvillier’s 39) and nine players who have hit double digits in goals. Mat Barzal is an extremely talented and exciting player to watch, even if he does get the merry-go-round going a little too often, and he is the spark that constantly ignites the team’s offense.

Unfortunately, sometimes he’s the only one who can do that. The Islanders have good depth, and when they get offensive contributions from across their lineup, they’re very dangerous. But as a side effect of their well-known defense-first style, they are prone to having difficulty finding the back of the net at times. To go along with having the 5th best Total Goals Against, the Islanders have the 8th worst Total Goals For. In fact, their stingy defense isn’t enough to overcome their at-times equally stingy offense, and they finished the shortened season with a -1 Goal Differential. To win in the playoffs, the saying is that you need your best players to be your best players. If the Islanders can do that - if Greiss plays as well as they know he can, if Barzal can be the catalyst for the offense while also getting depth scoring from the top 6 down - they’re a very good team.

The question is, is Florida better? 

The Panthers’ top 6 is better, at least. Jonathan Huberdeau has rather quietly scored 78 points, putting him tied for 10th in the NHL in points and 7th in assists. The 2011 3rd overall pick also became Florida’s all-time leading scorer earlier this season, passing Olli Jokinen in more than 50 games fewer. Aleksander Barkov is one of the best two-way forwards in the entire league, a perennial Selke and Lady Byng trophy nominee. Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov round out their stars, with both players scoring at least 25 goals and 45 points. They have good depth scoring with Noel Acciari, Frank Vatrano, and Brett Connolly, to name a few, and even defensemen Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad both eclipsed 40 points. 

The Panthers have a glaring issue, though, which is the biggest thing that gives me pause: goaltending. Good goaltenders are at a premium these days, and Florida thought they’d gotten one when they paid Sergei Bobrovsky huge money to sign with them in the summer, and, well... to say that he’s been lackluster is putting it nicely. In 48 starts, he’s posted a 3.23 GAA and .900 SV%, his worst GAA in his career by a significant margin and his second worst SV%. It was only in 2011-12, when it was .899 - a negligible difference, and that was a lockout-shortened season in which he faced almost 700 fewer shots than he did this year. It’s really laughable how much Florida is paying him when you look at his performance this year. And I don’t watch many Panthers games, but the ones I have, he's looked pretty much as bad as the numbers make it seem

Okay, so what are their other options for goaltending, then? One of them is Sam Montembault, a 23-year-old sophomore with an .890% SV and 3.34 GAA in 9 starts - not too encouraging.  Florida’s last hopes in net could rest on the shoulders of rookie Chris Driedger, who posted a 7-2-2 record in his 11 starts. He also has a .938 SV% and 2.05 GAA. 11 games is not a very large sample size, but those are great numbers, and as a Hurricanes fan, Driedger was phenomenal in the game he played against Carolina, stopping 42 of 44 shots. He really was the only reason the Panthers were able to win that game. Of course, doing that in 11 games in the regular season and doing it in the playoffs are two very different things. And it should be noted that neither Montembault nor Driedger have any playoff experience between them. Still, if Bobrovsky continues to underperform, Driedger could be Florida’s best chance to salvage their playoff dreams.

I know this is long, but there’s one last thing I wanted to cover, and that is special teams. Both of these teams are not where they want to be in their special teams. Last year, Florida had the 2nd best powerplay in the NHL at 26.8% and 2nd most PPG with 72. Only Tampa Bay - the team that tied the record for most wins in a season - was better. They have not been able to repeat their success this season. Their powerplay has fallen to 21.3%, putting them 10th. That’s still not bad, but not as good as they hoped.  Meanwhile, it may not shock you to learn that the Islanders inability to score goals applies to their powerplay, too. They’re tied for 7th worst, and 4 of the 6 teams that are below them are teams that did not even make the qualifying round of the Return to Play plan. (Of course, that also means there are 3 teams that didn’t make the play-in that have a better powerplay than New York. Yikes.). As for the penalty kill, you’d think that the Islanders’ defensive style would benefit them on the kill, but that hasn’t exactly been the case either. Their PK is 15th best at 80.7%, which like the Florida powerplay, isn’t bad, but also isn’t great. Florida’s penalty kill, meanwhile, is 20th at 78.5%. Special teams are extremely important in the playoffs, and both Florida and New York are equally average with theirs. I’d maybe give Florida the slight advantage because of their powerplay.

Final Prediction: New York, 3-1

I thought I was going to have a harder time deciding between these teams before I started, but once I got all my thoughts in order and down on the page, I realized that I just cannot see Florida winning with the goaltenders they currently have. Yes, the Islanders sometimes have a problem scoring goals, but the Panthers - especially Bobrovsky - have a far worse problem trying not to allow goals. The Panthers have a more star-studded group of forwards, but it hasn’t helped their special teams like it did last year and it won’t help their goaltending. I just can’t see this series going any way but a repeat of 2016.

Make sure to check back tomorrow for my preview of the Carolina Hurricanes vs the New York Rangers! I am obviously a lifelong Hurricanes fan, so I’m going to try not to be too biased, but either way I’m really looking forward to writing about that series. See you tomorrow!

CaniacWrites

[itsjuliak5]

THAT’S MY LADY BYNG NOMINEE!!!

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Hoffman Traded Twice, NHL Awards and Draft Predictions (June 20)

That was quite a day for Mike Hoffman, first being dealt to the Sharks, then getting flipped to the Panthers. After he had been labelled as damaged goods, who would have thought that he would have gotten traded twice in one day?

Here is Mike Clifford’s fantasy take on the Hoffman deals and how they affect all of Ottawa, San Jose, and Florida. He mentioned the possibility of Florida not wanting to break up its top six after a successful second-half run. That could happen, but I think the more likely scenario is that Hoffman is on the outside looking in on the Panthers’ first-unit power play. But he can still score in spite of having lacking first-unit power-play time. In his first full season he scored 27 goals, even though only one of those goals was on the power play. Either way, there are more scoring options in Florida than Ottawa right now, so there’s reason for optimism if you’re a Hoffman keeper owner.

If Hoffman does in fact land on the third line, then this trade could help the value of Jared McCann. A former late first-round pick of the Canucks, McCann came on late in the season with 12 points (3g-9a) in 22 games. Maybe a late-round sleeper in deeper leagues right now, though.  

The upcoming season will be important for Hoffman as far as putting this recent controversy behind him. If you’ve got a bit of risk taker in you, it might even represent a bit of a buy-low opportunity for your fantasy team. Just ask Doug Wilson, who managed to earn a profit in terms of draft picks along with clearing all-important cap space. If Wilson manages to land one of John Tavares, John Carlson, or Ilya Kovalchuk to improve his team as a result of moving the Mikkel Boedker contract, he could turn into the big winner of the summer.

One other point: If we didn't know about the reported accusation toward Hoffman's girlfriend, wouldn't the big story of the day be about how the Senators got robbed in this deal? Obviously Wilson out-GMed Pierre Dorion here, but we're not going to be so quick to judge Dorion now that we know more of the facts. 

*

You probably heard the Artemi Panarin trade rumors by now. Now the Flyers are reportedly discussing trading Wayne Simmonds. Yes, this is silly season. This is going to be a very busy next few days. I don’t think this offseason will disappoint if you enjoy watching players changing teams.

*

Because it’s NHL Awards night on Wednesday night, here are my predictions for each of the individual awards:

Hart Trophy: Connor McDavid

What, he’s not on the ballot? You’re not allowed to be on the ballot if you’re the league’s leading scorer by a good six points? All right, fine, it’s the player judged most valuable to his team.

Let’s try this again. I’ll use the criteria of biggest lead between the nominee and the second-leading scorer on his team.

Hart Trophy: Taylor Hall

At 93 points, Hall was 41 points clear of the Devils’ second-leading scorer (Nico Hischier). Where would the Devils be without him? Sorry, Oilers fans. 

Norris Trophy: Victor Hedman

Fifth in points among defensemen (63 points), also second among defensemen in plus/minus (+32) and fifth among defensemen in time on ice (25:51).

Vezina Trophy: Pekka Rinne

Better ratios than his competition (Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy) while posting similar win and shutout totals.

Calder Trophy: Mathew Barzal

The trophy was in Barzal’s hands even before Brock Boeser suffered a season-ending back injury. The first rookie since Sidney Crosby to post at least 20 goals and 60 assists.

Selke Trophy: Patrice Bergeron

If Bergeron wins, this would be his fifth Selke Trophy, passing Bob Gainey for the most Selke Trophy wins. So it’s his to lose.

Lady Byng Trophy: William Karlsson

Ryan O’Reilly recorded just a single minor penalty all season. Karlsson had just 12 PIM, but he also had a stronger season, which also factors into the award.

Jack Adams Award: Gerard Gallant

General Manager of the Year Award: George McPhee

Easy picks here, considering what the Vegas Golden Knights have accomplished in their first season.

Ted Lindsay Award: Connor McDavid

The players won’t overthink this one.

Masterton Trophy: Brian Boyle

Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award: Blake Wheeler

King Clancy Trophy: Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin

One other prediction: There will be at least one bad joke. But the awards will also provide more serious moments, with tributes to the recent tragedies in Las Vegas; Parkland, FL; and Humboldt, SK.  

The #Humboldt Broncos. pic.twitter.com/5XK6F6Mrzr

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) June 19, 2018

*

This draft forecast, aka mock draft, is based on where I think the picks will end up, not rankings in terms of likelihood of success in the NHL. Remember that teams don’t always pick the best player available, but will sometimes pick based on perceived team need. I also won’t go out on a limb and predict any trades, although I’m sure at least one will happen involving a first-round pick.  

BUF: Rasmus Dahlin, D – There’s about a 99 percent chance this will happen. Buffalo needs this player.  

CAR: Andrei Svechnikov, RW – The odds of this happening probably aren’t 99 percent, but still very good.  

MON: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C  – The wild card of the draft. Certainly not the number 3 ranked prospect (#7 on Cam’s rankings), but a perfect example of a team drafting for positional need. Or Marc Bergevin not being able to value players properly again. But that’s difficult to say right now, considering that we’re talking about 18-year-old kids here. That’s why I don’t get too excited or discouraged with a team picking a particular player.  

Things change so quickly. A week ago, I didn’t think it was likely the Habs would pass on Zadina at 3. Now, after speaking to several people, it seems they’re locked in on Kotkaniemi. They’ll move down to take him if they can, but it seems they’re willing to take him at 3.

— Eric Engels (@EricEngels) June 18, 2018

OTT: Filip Zadina, RW – He might fall, but not that far. Now that the Senators have traded Mike Hoffman, there’s an opening for a young goal-scoring winger to start the rebuild. (Note: The Sens have up until the time they make this pick to trade it to Colorado as part of the Matt Duchene deal. Otherwise they give up the 2019 pick. Given the direction Ottawa is going, this could get interesting. Have I mentioned that the Duchene deal was very bad for Ottawa?)  

ARI: Brady Tkachuk, LW – The younger Tkachuk brother lands on one of the teams that his dad played for.  

DET: Quinn Hughes, D – The run on defensemen begins here.  

VAN: Noah Dobson, D – If Dobson is still available here, the Canucks pick him. My sub prediction is that he doesn’t fall past number 7. But he’s gone by number 6 if the Habs don’t pick Kotkaniemi.  

CHI: Adam Boqvist, D – The Hawks can take their time with Boqvist with Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook in the fold.  

NYR: Oliver Wahlstrom, RW – The Rangers begin their rebuild with a sniper.  

EDM: Evan Bouchard, D – The Oilers always need help on D, so this is a great fit.  

NYI: Ty Smith, D – Another option for the Oilers and would love to play for Edmonton. But more likely to be one of the Islanders’ two picks.  

NYI:  Joel Farabee, LW – The second Islanders’ pick.  

DAL: Joseph Veleno, C  

PHI: Dominik Bokk, LW/RW  

FLA: Barrett Hayton, C  

COL: Vitali Kravtsov, RW  

NJ: Bode Wilde, D  

CBJ: Rasmus Kupari, C  

PHI: Grigori Denisenko, LW  

LA: Martin Kaut, RW  

SJ: K’Andre Miller, D  

OTT: Rasmus Sandin, D  

ANA: Ty Dellandrea, C  

MIN: Isac Lundeström, C  

TOR: Akil Thomas, C  

NYR: Ryan Merkley, D  

CHI: Jake Wise, C  

NYR: Serron Noel, RW  

STL: Jonny Tychonick, D  

DET: Jay O’Brien, C  

WSH: Nils Lundkvist, D

I’m not expecting to get many of my later picks correct, since there are wider swings of variance as to where these players might end up. But as they say, even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while.

Looking for much more in-depth prospect rankings and analysis than what I just provided? Pick up your 2018 Fantasy Prospects Report today.

*

For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-hoffman-traded-twice-nhl-awards-and-draft-predictions-june-20/