#peak oil
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hope-for-the-planet · 14 days ago
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From the article:
[T]here are now signs that China’s thirst for crude is reaching a peak sooner than expected, a development that has sent shockwaves through the oil market. This week, China said its oil imports had fallen nearly 2 per cent, or 240,000 barrels a day, to just over 11mn b/d in 2024 compared with the year before, the first decline in two decades barring the disruption during the Covid pandemic[...]. [T]he decline stems from longer-term trends too. There was a boom in trucks switching from diesel to liquefied natural gas, and, most importantly, the rising number of electric vehicles helped to depress sales of petrol and diesel. Sales of both road fuels peaked in 2023, according to China National Petroleum Corp, and will now fall by 25-40 per cent over the next decade. In December, Sinopec, China’s biggest refiner, brought forward its forecast for crude oil consumption to reach a peak to 2027, compared with the range it previously gave of between 2026 and 2030. The implications of China hitting peak oil are enormous. If Chinese demand is reaching a plateau that would fulfil projections by the IEA of global oil demand peaking before 2030. The forecast sustains hope for the world to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050."
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homoqueerjewhobbit · 4 months ago
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Imagine being 7 years old and learning about peak oil from a throwaway joke on Steven Universe.
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whatifsandspheres · 10 months ago
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Honestly? Almost none of you should be "working" It's a false reality composed of habit and capitalistic and statist ideals of stratification. By material and resource standards the industrial era made it a physical reality that most people "working" are really just getting in the way or being exploited, or a combination of both. Unfortunately, this has carried on for so long that energy like fossil fuel hydrocarbons has also begun a depletion curve downward at an accelerating pace in line with Hubbert's predictions (globally since 2008 for conventional crude oil and especially with depletion curves for the array of desperate energy grabs of unconventionals like fracking spoils). Slavery has even made a comeback, and I'm not speaking figuratively. As it stands, Amnesty International and other organizations estimate around 50 million enslaved humans worldwide and we've been able to estimate where most of them are from and where they're being trafficked and exploited. It may even become a physical reality that we will need to revert to much older technological levels in order to sustain population levels. Think horse-drawn carriages, bicycles, trains, wood-fired engines and stoves, and even communal collection of latrines/bedpans. It's less likely people will wake up and spread awareness before entropy draws us further away from the bounties and possibilities of this brief boom and flash of a golden era-- but it's not impossible. I wish it were that way. Not just a hypothetical potential. It might be one of the only things keeping me alive the past decade.
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personally i think you should be able to afford a place to live with a part-time job
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“Although increased BEV and plug-in hybrid sales are only one factor moderating recent gasoline consumption in China, continued market penetration of these vehicles could weigh on the future of gasoline consumption,” the EIA concludes.
“In China, typically between 20 million and 25 million passenger vehicles are sold every year. In the future, depending on future sales trends and the number of internal combustion engines decommissioned, BEVs and hybrids could make up a large portion of the total vehicle fleet in China.
Although we do not forecast consumption for individual petroleum products such as gasoline or diesel in countries other than the United States in our STEO, we factor in fundamental shifts that affect petroleum product consumption in our forecasts(..)
P.S. The Chinese car market is the most important globally...success in this market is enough to ensure the success of Chinese electric car manufacturers in the global car market.
Furthermore, no sane consumer likes dependence on the OPEC oil cartel, Russian imperialists, Muslim terrorists, and Latin American drug lords... who control politics in most oil-producing countries...
Oil is not only bad for your health, but also bad for your safety. Every time you put gas in your car, you are funding Russian atomic bombs targeted on you and Muslim terrorist ideology base - Islam!!!
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spokenforinvaliduser · 4 months ago
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lowest priority: reflection and finance
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hope-for-earthlings · 6 months ago
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Until the early 2010s, discussions over peak oil generally exclusively referred to concerns over peak oil production: the point at which crude oil reaches its maximum production capacity, followed by an irreversible decline.
This was a worrying concept for energy experts seeing a rising global dependence on oil, and there's no shortage of predictions of sometimes imminent arrival of peak oil production that haven't come to pass. One big reason the world hasn't reached this peak in recent years is the advent of unconventional oil sources such as shale oil and tar sands, combined with discoveries of large conventional oil fields in countries such as Guyana, Namibia and Brazil.
"There's always been new discoveries or new technologies, new ways of extracting oil," says Krista Halttunen, a research fellow in sustainable finance at the University of Oxford who co-authored a paper last year on peak oil while a PhD researcher at Imperial College London. "So we've never actually reached a peak – oil production capacity has been growing the entire time that we've had oil, really."
As concerns over climate change have grown over the past few decades, however, opinions around fossil fuel extraction have shifted enormously. With coal, oil and gas by far the largest contributors to global climate change, and a host of alternative renewable energy sources waiting at our fingertips, a reduction and phase-out of fossil fuels is seen as an urgent and necessary step.
As the world has begun to make efforts to move away from fossil fuels, a new concept of peak fossil fuels has emerged: that we will hopefully start cutting our need for them far before we use up all that is possible to extract from the Earth's crust. This is the point the IEA now thinks the world will reach at the end of the 2020s.
A surprise result
The IEA's new projections come from its latest medium-term oil report and are broadly aligned with its "stated policies scenario" (Steps) – a relatively conservative global scenario, which is based on what has already been put in place to achieve climate and other energy goals, rather than assuming all stated goals will be met.
"This is a view of what we think is going to happen based on things that people have said they're going to do or that we're confident are going to happen," says Healy. [...]. "We're doing our best job of trying to say what we think is the likely way things will play out." For oil demand to decline sooner, additional policy measures and behavioural changes would be needed, the IEA notes.
Even tracking the current use of oil is a big job. "There's a big team of statisticians here that do nothing else, essentially," says Healy.
The five-year projection goes up to 2028 – when the IEA thinks the world will be just on the brink of reaching peak oil demand.
The report marks the first time the IEA has found global oil demand will peak in such a short timeframe. "When we ran the model, and there was a peak in it, it was a bit of a surprise," says Healy. "It was clearly a very interesting result."
The key to peaking oil use
To understand what the IEA thinks is now happening with peak oil demand, it's worth considering that the transport sector is by far the biggest consumer of oil: it accounts for around 60% of the 100 million barrels of oil used globally every day. "There's nothing else that takes up as much oil as transport," says Halttunen.
Of that, around 45% of the total, or around 45 million barrels a day, is used in road fuel for vehicles like cars, trucks and vans, says Healy. It's here where sweeping changes are already beginning to curb oil demand.
Two big factors are driving this: the advent of alternative vehicle fuels – especially electric vehicles – and increased vehicle efficiency.
Electric vehicles have been a huge success story, says Healy, and are already having an impact on gasoline demand – especially in China, Europe and North America. Globally, 14% of all new cars sold in 2022 were electric, up from 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020.
"We expect that to continue to have a really big impact, as more and more electric vehicles are sold and displace the use of internal combustion engines in the fleet," says Healy.
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whatifsandspheres · 1 year ago
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Okay, but wind farms are centralized grid energy schemes. We can't keep thinking about everything in terms of massive industry that requires centralization and shifts accountability away from our personal lives. The wind mill went in two different directions toward turbines and another toward smaller rooftop compatible designs. Those smaller designs are much safer for the ecology and much more easily obtained in smaller groups than the massive energy projects most people think about these days. And a reminder that when these energy executives plan those wind, tidal, or solar farms, they're not considering the planet, they're thinking about profits too. They've repeatedly trampled over indigenous land rights as well as wildlife surveys by biologists and ecologists.
as a huge lover of birds, 90% of the concern against wind turbines being used for energy is literally just pro fossil fuel propaganda. birds ARE at a risk however there is a lot of strategies even as simple as painting one of the blades that reduces a lot of accidental deaths. additionally renewable energy sources will do more in favor of the environment that would positively impact birds (and all of us). one study found over one million bird deaths from wind turbines. while that is a shockingly high number and we should work to drastically shrink it, at least 1.3 billion birds die to outdoor cats on a yearly basis. it was never about caring about birds
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msexcelfractal · 9 months ago
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have they tried cooking sphagnum moss in a centrifuge
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bmobeaumont · 1 year ago
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ininterestingtimes · 1 year ago
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Radical Engagements: "Bracing for Impact" by John Michael Greer, Part 1
Part 2
Here is the piece referred to: https://www.ecosophia.net/bracing-for...
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sprightlyfox · 3 days ago
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Kids must be arriving to school, sick of it before they've even started. So I want to say words of hope after surviving school sanely: (Versus A Dot)
Experience is required Yet all are trained when hired. Forget what you had learned How the tables have turned
School doesn't train anyone Work hard and use your brain They told you it would matter But they meant you to obey!
https://youtu.be/NFF2BKXJ4sM
The words they make you memorize are mostly a waste of your time, but the human connections and self growth you take away are real. The real world won't care what grades you got but your work ethic will shine through. Don't compare yourself to others to give yourself excuses not to be the best you can be.
Focus on being a good human more than a good worker. Self care and exercise will leave you fit for the troubles ahead. Stock up on food and set up water catching systems when you can. Yea, we may end up fighting for our lives, but I'd rather do that in a community with something to defend than be a nomad in a desert.
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whatifsandspheres · 1 year ago
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May, year 3 A.P. (After Peak)
Disclaimer on what’s about to spew forth. I’m working on something much more convoluted, melodramatic, and well, all-around sweating a musk reminiscent of teen spirit.  And while I still feel that it has to be written, I also realize that the early feedback I was getting away from xanga, was right.  By assuming some comfort in my grasp of the concepts, I butchered understanding, and watered down…
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edouardstenger · 1 year ago
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Will global fossil fuels emissions really peak this year ?
The latest IEA annual World Energy Outlook offers some serious glimmers of hope with global fossil fuels demand taking place soon, but a enormous task lies ahead. Now more than ever we need to roll up our sleeves and create the future we deserve.
It’s an annual event for the energy and sustainability crowds, the latest World Energy Outlook by the reputed International Energy Agency is out. For years, this publication was lowballing renewable energy sources. And all along independant organizations were lamenting the fact. Figures would prove them wrong : solar, wind and other technologies would soar higher and higher.Little by little, then…
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kindwarrior · 1 year ago
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https://rumble.com/v462w0x-this-is-what-they-dont-want-you-to-know-about-the-climate-agenda.html
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geopolitique · 1 year ago
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The IEA says China has hit peak oil - Oil markets face enormous glut
The IEA says China has hit peak oil - Oil markets face enormous glut
P.S. Very good news: China is helping Ukraine repel Russian aggression much better than the meager arms supplies from the US, which are slowed down even more by various silly restrictions...!
If it were possible to reduce the profits of Russian oil exports and the ability of Russians to finance the war against Ukraine, it would greatly help the Ukrainians to protect their sovereignty...
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