#scarth street

[gentlemanpixelator]

Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. Scarth Street.

[the-lost-and-gone]

Pompeii

       The eruption of Mount Vesuvius was a catastrophic event that took place in 79 AD on the island of Pompeii (located in Campania Italy, Southeast of Naples). Some of the surviving documents that have been found included two letter written by Gaius Plinius Secundus (aka Pliny the Younger), a Roman lawyer, author and magistrate. One of the letters talks about his uncle and mentor, Pliny the Elder, and his efforts to save his friends on Pompeii. The second is about his own escape from Campania when the ash came down. Based on the letters, the fire and ash were so thick that it was impossible to see the daylight. “It was daylight everywhere else by this time, but they were still enveloped in a darkness that was blacker and denser than any night, and they were forced to light their torches and lamps... Then, suddenly, flames and a strong smell of Sulphur, giving warning of yet more flames to come, forced the others to flee” (Pliny 1) Many people had abandoned their homes and belongings to avoid the flames and disaster to come. In the surrounding areas,fear had spread amongst the residents as they witness the initial explosion and the incoming clouds of ash and smoke. the surrounding island had also been affected by the eruption, as they were too covered in smoke and ash, as Pliny states “Ash was already falling by now, but not very thickly. Then I turned around and saw a thick black cloud advancing over the land behind us like a flood...We were amazed by what we saw, because everything had changed and was buried deep in ash like snow” (Pliny 1)

       The city of Pompeii had been excavated starting in 1748 by English ambassdor to naples, Sir William Hamilton. Excavations have shown that some goods were fully preserved, like some buildings, mosaics and sculptures. " graffity (announcements, advertizing sales, expressing personal opinion) is still visible on street walls” (Scarth 1)

[deeisace]

Okay so

I think I’ve made a post about this before

Or at least I’ve thought about doing that

Anyway so

My uhhhh 4th?-great grandfather (Geoff, Robert, James, Robert, yep) Robert Fergus was a bit of a mystery - he said he was born in 1840 in Kirkintilloch to John Fergus, right, but no such guy exists as I can find

So I widened the search parameters a bunch, actually checked the census records as well as the baptism records - found a Robert Fergus born in Kirkintilloch in 1839, but this time to a James Fergus

Now, following Robert, James was a bit of a family name - his son and two of his grandsons were James, too - if this James went by some nickname (not at all uncommon), or his middle name was John (I don’t know, but I do know an American grandson was called J J, so it might’ve been so), that’s where a mistake might’ve been made, I spose

Also further clues, this Robert-son-of-James had a sister Isabella, where my Robert had a daughter who was recorded as Isabella as a child, and Arabella as an adult (I don’t know if she changed her name on moving to America or before then, but she went to her maternal aunt in Oak Park Illinois, along with two of her Scarth cousins), and also a granddaughter Isabella too

Family names tend to follow, and the dates and places tally well enough, so I’m pretty sure that these two Roberts are the same person

So James, Robert’s father, was a coal merchant in Greenock West - as such I do have a couple adverts he placed in the local paper - notices of moving premises and a list of coal prices by weight, and also one time some guy stole seven of his shirts (like off a washing line?? I have no idea) so he took him to court for the theft

And I’ve had a bit of a clickabout anyway, and this morning I’ve found a listing that says that Robert Fergus son of James Fergus coal merchant was admitted to the Greenock Poorhouse in 1859 on mental health grounds

I’ve no idea what that might mean, but I’ve ordered the record to read (hopefully by next month it’ll arrive)

It does explain why he’s nowhere to be found on the 1861 censuses, tho

He only turns up again as a dock labourer in Liverpool in 1871 

....

Oh god what’s going on

Hang on a fuckin minute

James Linklater Fergus, who is definitely my 3rd-great grandfather, cs the names follow

He’s the one who died by stepping on a nail on a ship in Egypt in 1898

Him, right. There’s a baptism record - for him, name correct, parents’ names correct, date correct enough - and it says “father’s occupation - solicitor”

Which. Which is not right. The guy was a docker, says so on every following record (cotton porter, dock labourer, day labourer, etc)

Did. Did they just want to sound fancy for the church? Did he have money problems or smth in the next two years, for him then to be listed a docker?

Okay okay. Right. So. 

Emma Baikie Fergus was born in London, in 1864, we know that, though nothing else. Then James, born in Liverpool to Maria and Robert-the-solicitor, Hornby Street, 1868. Then Robert, born in Liverpool to Maria and Robert-the-hawker, Hornby Street, 1869. Then we have the 1871 census, where he is a dock labourer. Then Lilly May Johnston Fergus, to Maria and Robert in 1874 (and isn’t that something, that she has her aunt’s married name for a middle name - was Maria about with her sister’s husband, or is there another reason?) - she died before the next census, age 3, and I’ll have to take a trip up Anfield Cemetery again, see if I can’t find her (she’s in with someone else, the record says, but then, so’s my sister, and she’s got a name on a stone, so - idk if they will’ve done the same 145 years ago as they did 25, tho, she mightn’t have a stone, or one surviving - her/our grandfather John’s is broken, anyway, so I haven’t read it). Then apparently this is when Maria Scarth and Robert Fergus marry, though it was definitely those two on the 1871 census and I can’t imagine John Scarth (Maria’s dad the cathedral choir master) would’ve been happy had he known they were what’s the phrase ‘living in sin’. Then we have Arabella/Isabella Margaret Fergus, born to Robert and Maria in 1877 - and in 1881, he’s listed as a labourer.

Ah. Ah fucking ha, right

Solicitor is another word for “someone who sells”

There, it’s all fine, it matches, that’s what hawker means too

But a new mystery with Lilly May there, tho. And I’d forgotten that Maria and Robert didn’t marry until far later than they ought’ve done. 

I don’t know about Emma, exactly. But the next baptism record on from James in 1868 is for an Emma Baikie born to Maria and John Baikie, a captain (presumably of a ship) also living on Hornby Street. Is this more evidence of Maria Scarth being unfaithful (along with little Lil’s middle name)? Cs it’s only her who shows up when I click on Maria Baikie - Maria Scarth and Maria Fergus. And Captain John Baikie doesn’t appear to exist outside of this one record as I can find, and there certainly isn’t one who married a Maria (though there are a couple of Marys, as there always is)

So was she out-of-wedlock, then, or adopted in some other manner

Or, the records are just lost, that also happens reasonably often and is I spose the simplest explanation in a way.

[skgway]

1824 Aug., Tues. 24

5 20/60

0Had a basin of boiled [milk] and off to (walked) H–x [Halifax] at 6 20/60 – Just in time – Off from H–x [Halifax] at 6 3/4 – Off from Bradford in 1 1/2 hour (waited there of another coach near 1/2 hour) and stopt at the Rose and Crown, Leeds at 9 1/2 – 

Went immediately to the White Horse to see about places in the Union to London – Sent up the luggage – Returned, had a couple of basins of boiled milk – A little on the other side Leeds observed a new brick warehouse building – When Mr. Sheepshanks, said the coachman, has finished and begins to use it, he will just pay a thousand a week in wages – Said a passenger Ackroyd and Son of H–x [Halifax] pay as much as that already –

First corn cut (oats quite green) 3 or 4 miles on this side of Bradford – A field of wheat in cutting (ripe enough) near Kirkstall – Beautiful morning – Could not have had a finer – Settled my accounts – Wrote the above of today – 

The man at the union coach office very civil – Made no difficulty about luggage – said 30 lbs. each passenger were allowed but they were not very particular – Did not mind 3 stones – 2d [pence] a lb the charge for extra luggage – 

Sat very comfortably at the Rose and Crown till 11 1/4 – Then went to pay for my places in or rather on the union, 2 outsides to London 35 /. [shillings] each. Left Cordingly sitting in the coach and sauntered about the neighboring streets till 12 when we started for town, I on the box with the coachmen and Cordingley just behind me – 

At Pontefract, 13 miles, at 1 3/4 – A tolerably good town – A handsome sessions-house, and a good-looking church – Never once able to get a peep at the ruins of the castle – Just going out of the town, they had sunk the road several yards, making what my uncle would call a deep gully; but they say the snow blows over it and does not fill it up – 

Our coachman a very civil man – The guard but a good driver and had taken the coachman’s place today, on account of the coachman being ill – Speaking of carriage builders, he thought Messrs Coleridges, Rowley, and Co. the best – That 1 of the firm superintended the executing of the order to whom it was given – 

A Mr. Cooke, a very clever young man, the junior was very much liked, and our coachman advised the order being given to Mr. Cooke – His majesty employed this firm, and always saw Mr. Cooke – They would not make a good traveling chaise for less than £300 – 

From Pontefract to Doncaster 14 miles – Changed horses at the Robin Hood about 7 miles from Pontefract where we were detained 10 minutes by finding that 3 out of 4 pointers (2 belonging to a gentleman and 2 to a boy of a gentleman’s servant on the top of the coach) put into the back were dead of suffocation, and the 4th tho’ still gasping, not very likely to recover – 

Stopt at the old angel (the Head Inn) Doncaster at 3 1/2 – On going upstairs, met Mrs. Wilcock and 2 or 3 of her daughters. I stared – She spoke very civilly – asked if I was going forwards – merely answered yes and asked after Miss Pickford –

Mrs. W– [Wilcock] had been staying at this Inn 3 or 4 days, on account of having sent her oldest daughter to a school in the town – Doncaster certainly a pretty town – Very handsome church steeple – Tell my aunt the bridge house, where she used to be at school is now Mr. “Graham’s academy” – A few heat-drops just as we left Pontefract but they soon cleared off, and we had no more – 

Off from Doncaster at 4 – Did not change coachmen till we got to Tuxford at 7, when our driver from Leeds resumed his place of his guard but only for the next 27 miles to Stanford – The sun at Scarthing-moor one of the prettiest I ever saw – A verandaed doorway – Roses and whatnot – Very pretty – Excellent house – Might stay a week there – 

Off from Tuxford at 7 5/60 – Stopt at Newark at 8 1/2 – Just light enough to distinguish the narrow bridge over the river and the very near remain of the langer square castle which is a fine object tea and supper ad libitum prepared for us at Newark – Staid there 25 minutes – I had boiled milk, and Cordingley tea – Neither of us took anything at Doncaster during the 1/2 hour the coach stopt there for dinner –

[sideways in margin] Doncaster, Tuxford, etc. Dead dogs. Best carriage builders. Pontefract.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

Saskatchewan now has the lowest minimum wage in Canada at $11.06 an hour and in mock celebration of that statistic, people in Regina and Saskatoon gathered to push the province to institute a $15 per hour minimum wage.

This comes after Nova Scotia on Monday increased its minimum wage to $11.55 per hour, leaving Saskatchewan in last place.

At the corner of Scarth Street and 11th Avenue in Regina on Monday afternoon, around a dozen people served cake to passersby and encouraged them to sign a petition calling for a $15/hour minimum wage in a “party and protest” event organized by Fight for 15 Saskatchewan. A similar event was held in Saskatoon.

“When a minimum wage was instituted, the idea behind a minimum wage was that you should be able as an adult who had a family to be able to provide for your family. That was what minimum meant. It meant a basic dignity of life, and that is no longer true for the minimum wage in Saskatchewan. Eleven dollars an hour does not ensure dignity of life,” said Saima Desai, who helped organize the event.

Continue Reading.

[qccpafmaf]

PERFORUM ROUND TABLE DISCUSSION - SEPTEMBER 22, 2018

By Saima Desai

“My grandmother told me that the only time she remembered hearing Lenape was in songs that her grandmother would sing while they were making baskets,” Vanessa tells us, “and they would only do it at night.”

We’re halfway into a conversation on “Performing Alterity.” On the stage are six Black and Indigenous performance artists: Thirza Cuthand, Raven Davis, Vanessa Dion Fletcher, Dana Michel, Harold Offeh, and Adrian Stimson.

The panel’s moderator, John G. Hampton, told us that the panel was about the differences and similarities between everyday performances and artistic performances of self. Predictably, John began with Judith Butler’s idea of performativity: performativity is a “stylized repetition of actions,” John tells us. “Gender is constructed alongside your sense of self through the way you live your life, your daily performance of self, and that’s informed by social norms and structures that you grow up in.”

But this is a panel of brown and Black queer people. The panelists understandably don’t seem interested in discussing white queer theory.  

Instead, the conversation turns to languages. John, Raven, Vanessa, and Adrian introduce themselves in their own Indigenous languages before switching to English. Later, we’ll learn that Thirza has taken a few Cree language classes, and Dana never learned Patois. Harold knows only enough Akan to be embarrassed when he visits Accra.

There’s a sharp, new sadness I found in adulthood. It’s the sadness of not being able to speak my parents’ language. My parents gave up on sending me to Gujarati language school after years of dragging my sulky, whiny ass to Sunday classes. All my friends got to go to ballet lessons on Sundays. I was stuck in a suburban classroom that smelled like the inside of a cupboard, with a teacher who rewarded up for proper conjugation with those biscuits you give to teething babies.  

Today, I can nod and smile and speak in simple two-word sentences. I can I can spell my name and nothing else, the letters shy and childish. I’m embarrassed to speak to my motapapa, my grandfather. I feel shame – not just the shame of failure, but the shame of failing at something that should be as natural as breathing.  

“She’d be lying at night, hearing these songs, and that was the only exposure she got to her language,” Vanessa continues. “[… My grandmother’s parents] wanted the kids to learn English, as a survival mechanism, and also to hide from the Indian Agents and the government.”

Indigenous languages were literally beaten out of children in residential schools, and outlawed by white colonizers. For others of us, whose people have also lived under colonization, our languages were wiped from textbooks, deprioritized, shamed, silenced, or simply forgotten.

Today, there are very few speakers of the Lenape languages, Munsee and Unami. There are only two fluent Munsee speakers, aged 77 and 90. The conversation turns briefly to a fire that destroyed 20 million items at Brazil's National Museum earlier this month. Among the items lost were audio recordings of Indigenous languages that are no longer spoken.

The news sends a shiver of fear through me. I wonder if, hundreds of years into the future, my family’s language might be endangered like that. If its connection to this world could ever be so tenuous that the string could be snapped in one go.

Vanessa continues: “But when I feel that deep sadness at the lack of access I have to my language, I think: not all moments in the past or present or future have to be ones that are through language. There are always moments of silence and moments of communicating physically and visually. Even though I will always mourn the loss of my language, for myself and for everybody, I can still have experiences that are outside of that loss.”

Later, Dana Michel will tell us that she never learned Patois from her parents: “it was deemed ‘not proper’ to pass it on to your children.” She often feels a lack of connection with her history, she says, but there are ways in which our bodies hold and speak that history. Family members tell her that she’s a lot like her grandfather – a grandfather she met maybe twice in her life.

“There’s a way of history and heritage being passed down without our knowing,” she muses. “Or a certain kind of knowing.”

“We’re becoming more aware of intergeneration trauma, so then logically, intergenerational wisdom…” she trails off.

Vanessa’s performance, on Wednesday, used porcupine quills, Wampum belts, and menstrual blood to probe the outlines of a body – physical and cultural. At one point, she filled her mouth with porcupine quills, and then walked around the Regina Public Library pulling quills from her mouth and handing them to strangers.

“Porcupine quills were used before glass beads or embroidery – to tell stories, to adorn our bodies,” explains Vanessa. “Porcupine quills would be put in your mouth to soften them before they would be sewn into clothing.”

“When I learned that, I thought: ‘I’m never going to speak the words that I want, I’m never going to have all the ideas that I want. I’m never going to be able to hear or sing the songs that my grandmother heard falling asleep at night. But I can still put this quill in my mouth, and I can feel the same thing that people in my community have felt forever.’ And that’s something that hasn’t been interrupted by colonialism.”

In my voice recorder, all the panelists hum softly in agreement. I think of the sharpness of a mouth full of quills, of jagged shards of words you’ll never speak, shattered by colonization and displacement.

“I think that’s the beauty of being an artist, and being a performance artist,” begins Adrian. “That we create our own language.”

PERFORMANCE - VISITING THAHAB - NABIL VEGA - SEPTEMBER 22, 2018

by Saima Desai

This story begins with a delayed flight. It’s fitting, for a performance about 9/11.

Because of their flight delay, Nabil Vega’s morning performance has been cancelled. Instead, I make it to the Dunlop in the evening for the second part of “Visiting Thabab.”

I am the only South Asian or Arab person I can pick out in the audience. That’s not at all unusual for the Regina art scene, but I feel a little bit smug about it today. I expect I’m better positioned to understand the art than anybody else in the room. Who better to write about a performance on what it is to be a brown femme in post-9/11 North America than me?

Nabil emerges under a sheet of gold fabric that drapes to their thighs. They silently stand or crouch in front of each audience member. I watch the audience members steel themselves for eye contact with this eyeless apparition – when their turn comes, some smirk, some squint, some adopt an air of practiced seriousness.

Nabil leaves, returns with a plastic bag full of gold glitter that slithers between their knuckles as they pace the room, casting a protective circle around the space. They wade into a red kiddie pool in the center of the room, sit wide-legged on a stool, and begin combing a tangled clump of dark hair out from under the gold sheet, eventually letting it fall into the pool.

Grasping for meaning, I think of the importance of hair for Indian women – as a tool of intergenerational care, a locus of beauty, a site of vicious gender control. I remember my own long ponytail I once cut off, eventually working up to shaving my head to a buzzcut. My parents were – still are – livid at my boyish cut.

Then, Nabil crouches in the pool, ripping at a seam at the side. Silently, and almost imperceptibly, the pool begins to leak water – I don’t notice it until audience members start nervously lifting their shoes out of its spreading path.

The water picks up glitter as it spreads, gilding its edges. There’s something sinister about this silent, unstoppable crawl of water, bordered with gold, fingers reaching towards our toes. It looks like the spread of a virus, or the march of a colonial army across a map. I think of Harsha Walia’s concept of border imperialism, which "links the politics of borders to global systems of power and repression, systems which find their roots in ‘othering,’ colonization, and slavery.”

I don’t understand the performance.

I don’t understand what it means to be a brown girl in post 9/11 North America.

After, I ask Nabil when their second performance will be, and whether it’s a continuation of the first. I’m not sure this is true, but I tell her I “really liked” the first one. I guess I really liked that a brown queerdo was making art – but I couldn’t tell you any more about what I liked about it. Haltingly, shyly, I tell them that I found their performance “more opaque” than I expected and that I was still “grappling with the symbolism.” It is my way of very quietly screaming, “I don’t get it! Why don’t I get it? Don’t I – a brown girl living in post-9/11 North America – deserve to get it?” I stop myself before actually asking Nabil to explain any of the symbolism – but anyways, they have already darted off to help a volunteer wrestle the now-flaccid kiddie pool into a bucket. When they hefts it off the ground, it looks like a dead body, still sagging with water.

*

Later, I show up outside the Dunlop art gallery in downtown Regina. Nabil is already outside, under their gold sheet. I watch as they crouch in the middle of Scarth Street and light the first blue smoke bomb between their feet, rich indigo clouds rising like bubbles in a glass. Seeing the smoke, people begin to filter out of the afterparty, gathering at a distance around Nabil. The drunk people at the bar across the street start shouting at us.

Nabil takes off towards the bar, and we begin to follow. Gary, the director of QCC, chases them, muttering “I told them they needed to take someone with them, for protection.” I glance nervously at the drunk white guys at the bar, still yelling. Do white men not know than whenever they yell – excitedly or belligerently – my whole body fractures into little triangles of fear? I’m shot through by that same fear for Nabil, which is really a fear for myself – another queer brown femme walking home alone at night past a bar of drunk and yelling white guys.

They turn, stop, stand in the middle of the darkened street, set off another haldi-yellow smoke bomb, study us. Under the rippling gold sheet, in absolute silence, with the smoke rising like a prayer, they look like a ghost.

I think of the other brown ghosts of 9/11:

Balbir Singh Sodhi, a Sikh man originally from India, murdered at a gas station in Arizona on September 15, 2001. He was the first fatality of the post-9/11 backlash against Muslims and those perceived as Muslim. His killer also shot at a Lebanese person and an Afghan family’s house. In 2011, the Arizona legislature tried to remove Mr. Sodhi's name from their state 9/11 memorial.

On the same day, Waqar Hasan, an immigrant from Pakistan, was murdered in a grocery store in Texas. He was the second fatality. Three weeks later, his murderer would kill Vasudev Patel, an Indian man.

Two weeks after Hasan’s death, Abdo Ali Ahmed, a 51-year-old Yemeni man, was shot to death outside his convenience store. Two days earlier a note reading, “We’re going to kill all you fucking Arabs,” was left on his car windshield.

I was only six when 9/11 happened. I couldn’t tell you where I was when I heard the news – probably in my Grade One classroom. I’d be lying if I said I felt, at the time, even the slightest shiver of what 9/11 would come to mean for people who look like me. How it would change entire regimes of race, of state violence and systematic dehumanization, of wars and geopolitics, of displacement and migration. The exhaustion of being “randomly selected” for the thousandth time at airport security.

I think of the way I walk faster, clamp my teeth around my tongue, tighten my heart when I pass a bar full of drunk white men, yelling. The times I thought I might become another brown ghost.

I think of the way my skin looks under lake water, so brown it’s just a little gold.

[awhilesince]

Tuesday, 24 August 1824

5 20/60

0Had a basin of boiled and off to (walked) H–x (Halifax) at 6 20/60 – Just in Time – off from H–x (Halifax) at 6 3/4 – off from Bradford in 1 1/2 hour (waited there of another coach near 1/2 hour) and stopt at the Rose and Crown in Leeds at 9 1/2 – went immediately to the White horse to see about places in the Union to London – sent up the luggage – returned had a couple of basins of boiled milk – 

a little on the other side Leeds observed a new brick warehouse building – when Mr Sheepshanks, said the coach man, has finished and begun to use it, he will just pay a thousand a week in wages – said a passenger Ackroyd and son of H–x (Halifax) pay as much as that already –

first corn cut (oats quite green) 3 or 4 miles on the side of Bradford – a field of wheat in cutting (ripe enough) near Kirkstall – Beautiful morning – could not have had a finer – settled my account – wrote the above of today – 

the man at the union coach office very civil – made no difficulty about luggage – said 30 lbs. (pounds) each passenger were allowed but they were not very particular – did not mind 3 Stones – 2d (pence) a (lb.) pound the charge for extra luggage – 

Sat very comfortably at the Rose and Crown Till 11 1/4 – then went to pay for my places in or rather on the Union (2 outsides to London 35/. each) left Cordingley sitting in the coach and sauntered about the neighboring streets Till 12 when we started for town, I on the box with the coach man and Cordingley just behind me – at Pontefract (13 miles) at 1 3/4 – a tolerably good town – a handsome sessions-house, and a good-looking church – never once able to get a peep at the ruins of the castle –

Just going out of the Town, they had sunk the road several yards, making what my uncle would call a deep gully; but they say the snow blows over it, and does not fill it up – our coach man a very civil man – the guard, but a good driver, and had taken the coach man’s place today, on account of the coach man being ill – speaking of carriage builders, he thought Messieurs Coleridges, Rowley, and company the best – that 1 of the firm superintended the executing of the order to whom it was given – a Mr Cooke, a very clever young man, the junior was very very much liked, and our coach man advised the order being given to Mr Cooke – His majesty employed this firm, and always saw Mr Cooke – they would not make a good travelling chaise for less than £300 – 

From Pontefract to Doncaster 14 miles – Changed horses at the Robin Hood about 7 miles from Pontefract where we detained 10 minutes by finding that 3 out of 4 pointers (2 belonging to a gentleman and 2 to a boy of a gentleman’s servant on the top of the coach) put into the back were dead of suffocation, and the 4th, tho’ still gasping, not very likely to recover – 

Stopt at the old angel (the head Inn) Doncaster at 3 1/2 – on going upstairs, met Mrs Wilcock and 2 or 3 of her daughters I stared – she spoke very civilly – asked if I was going forwards – merely answered yes, and asked after Miss Pickford – Mrs W– Wilcock had been staying at this Inn 3 or 4 days, on account of having sent her oldest daughter to a school in the town – Doncaster certainly a pretty town – very handsome church steeple – Tell my aunt the bridge house, where she used to be at school, is now Mr ‘Graham’s academy’ – 

a few heat-drops just as we left Pontefract but they soon cleared off, and we had no more – Off from Doncaster at 4 – Did not change coach man Till we got to Tuxford at 7, when our driver from Leeds resumed his place of his guard but only for the next 27 miles i.e. to Stamford – the Inn at Scarthing-moor one of the prettiest I ever saw – a verandaed doorway – roses and what not – very pretty – Excellent house – might stay a week there – 

off from Tuxford at 7 5/60 – Stopt at Newark at 8 1/2 – just light enough to distinguish the narrow bridge over the river and the very near remain of the large square castle which is a fine object Tea and supper ad libitum prepared for us at Newark – staid there 25 minutes – I had boiled milk, and Cordingley tea – neither of us took anything at Doncaster during the 1/2 hour the coach stopt there for dinner –

left margin: 

Pontefract

Best carriage builders.

Dead dogs

Doncaster

Tuxford etc.

reference number: SH:7/ML/E/8/0033, SH:7/ML/E/8/0034

[jobinterviewghost]

Hogs, chickens and horses

Composed by Robert Brokenmouth on 18 November 2019.

Not As Bad As It Could've Been- Scarth Hog( self-released) Mystery Train- Chickenstones:( Crankinhaus Records) Away from the Sun- Majestic Horses( Kasumuen Records )Yes, dear reader, I too questioned what a scarth was. Well, Scarth is a family name, and 'is of Anglo-Saxon origin and came from when the household resided in the county of Yorkshire, where they held the manor of Scarborough. This place-name was initially originated from the Old English Skaroisburg, which was brought into England during the Norman Conquest of 1066.' Scarth is also Yorkshire dialect for a rough, bare rock. No-one ever said Costs Bostle (whose band this is) ever lacked a sense of humour.

I utilized to know Bill a little, in the pasts when 205 was a combination of interweaving bands instead of a street number, and when Bill played (drums) in King Snake Roost with, to name a few fascinating active ingredients, the late Charlie Tolnay. I recall one check out to his home (in a peaceful inner Adelaide 'burb) throughout which he boasted of being "the loudest bastard in the street" which, offered that he had the Grateful Dead on 11, was patently apparent.

Despite his rather odd taste in music, I have actually always been rather keen on Expense. Mind you, a few of the bands he's remained in: skronk as hell. An afraid racket, and an excellent outlet for the frustrations of real life. Scarth Hog ain't as loud as I anticipated. They're favorably groovy (rather delighted in the punnily called instrumental "A Minor Detour"). Wikipoopoopants has this to state:

King Snake Roost (also known as KSR) was among a variety of Australian and Worldwide guitar-based bands who emerged from within the punk rock and post-punk scene of the mid-1980s that became specified as sound rock. King Snake Roost formed in 1985 in Adelaide and in 1987 the band moved to Sydney. The band separated in 1990 after a two-month trip of the USA. In Australia and the USA the band played with some of the most prominent noise rock bands of the 1980s, consisting of Sonic Youth, Big Black, Mudhoney, Helmet, Babes In Toyland, Lubricated Goat, feedtime and The Mark of Cain. KSR dipped into some prestigious 1980s US places, including, CBGB and Maxwell's.

The album press flyer discusses even more: "Adventurous originals three-piece band stirring the swampy pot of rawk, blues, jazz, metal and punk loosely known as sound rock. Based at Canberra, Australia. Have snouts will take a trip." Enough of Costs, for the moment. His bass guitar case increases to 12 (yes, he's on bass). Phil Gemmell plays guitar, and is a veteran of the Christchurch punk and metal scene ... but here, he "returns to fuzz, valves, personalized humbucking jeans and slicing out runs and power chords". Mark Woods is on drums and "more cowbell", and used to play in "Canberra's Detroit-metal tearaways Hell Yes", who I have, normally, never ever heard of. ( ED: Likewise house to a young Costs Gibson, later on of The Eastern Dark, Lemonheads and New Christs.) And the CD? It's terrific fun, as it takes place. They're loud (and for finest effect, you require to annoy the neighbours) with a distinct early '70s feel that manages to be easygoing and urgent at the same time. Expense's on bass and he's actually maintaining the timing; his lyrics are bluntly political with a dark humour - you can virtually see his understanding laugh in '2 Dollar Dream' - deadpan faux-cocktail blues mixed with time changes and sensibility. Costs's vocals are exactly what you wouldn't get out of somebody with his background, by the way; clearly audible words provided sharp focus. "Cable television Street" - I do not understand if you learn about this, however it's a well-known (or infamous) incident in the history of London politics, so when I hear Bill's gritted-out line "My old man held Cable television Street and I will hold this ground" ... numerous threads of history mesh. It's likewise a difficult tune. Look, I'll leave it there. We have one groovy, loudly rock album here, a number of various styles played damned well. Plenty to listen to, songs which go someplace rather than constantly repeat the very same message. When I see Bill next I want to have a beer-fuelled argument about several things and add to reducing the tone of Canberra (as if that were even possible). On the other hand, I'm damn grateful "Not As Bad As It Could've Been" is such a great disc, and I truly want to see these buggers live. Either get it here or bother the band on their Facebook page.

* * * * * Due to a cancellation and a realisation that I needed a vacation of sorts, just recently I was able to see Chickenstones at the Collaroy Beach Club in Sydney. The majority of the set came from their brand-new LP, "Secret Train". The 'Stones are a band that flourishes on gigging and rehearsal, playing, playing and playing some more. When the women dance at the front ... that's what you desire, not some crinkly critic banging on. Now, then, "Secret Train" is also a damn fine LP. Rather apart from the title track (the mystery is, as Phil Van Ruin explained from the phase, where we're going.) There are a variety of dark threads running through the bedrock here. Andy's brush with the hyena of cancer triggered, as you would expect, a re-consideration of the truths of the folks around him, their and his function and so on. And yet, what might have been a horrendous triple LP set of meandering solos and pompous mumbling is instead a splitting, relentless rock 'n' roll LP. You don't require to know the backstory. How many of you understand what "Midnight Rambler" is about? (hint: it's not about choosing blackberries along a country lane at 12.01 am). No. From the first 2nd, 'Mystery Train' is an ideal fuzzball twin-guitar hoot, a revelatory breathing churn chockas with the twist of 2 unique singers - Van Ruin's voice has a white wine clearness with a hurt lilt which makes me thirsty, while Doc Temple's voice has a dirty blues lustre that makes me think about sticky carpet at the back of the mouth. Paul Worth and Jim Kelly are the ideal rhythm area, definitely in-sync, tuff and ruff and do not fuck with them, not foreseeable but permitting the vocals and guitars to shine. Bloody big noise they all have too. Mal Gillies lends some perfect blues harp, and Russell Parkhouse some bar-room pianner. Manufacturer Russell Pilling's done a fine job of capturing this tight-cat's- arse band - the Stones think they're heading into acid rock area. I guess it may seem like that. However nah, they're heading into gloriously muscular pop area. Take that slight squealy riff in "You Got a Right".

I ought to mention that there's no lost space here. Every worthless area is taken control of, you hear new things all the time. There's also a great deal of stress, worry, muffled rage and frustration here. "Fuel", for example. By "Leave", we're drenched in adrenaline and taken in heavy riffs. We understand with a jolt that lots of, numerous better-established bands would kill to have a noise like this, never ever mind any among these songs. That "Mystery Train" came out of such grim, un-nerving scenarios is a testament to a number of things: pig-headedness and/or determination, take your pick; and the love and pleasure of making music. The Barman is right when he describes the title track, "Secret Train", as the centrepiece; until then the songs have actually been increasing fast in intensity; now they peak, splinter and we're left with the rest of the LP ... which tosses us around in a different way. Phil's glorious voice is to crave, and while I normally loathe "sweet" blues, this one had me destroying. Transcendent. And I'll say this, too, "Mystery Train" is the type of track which would not sound out of location on mainstream FM between the adverts for panel-beaters and wifebeaters on special. Then we head into deep r 'n' r area ... "Ball and Chain" - well, I don't understand what the fuck is happening with that guitar but it seems like a sax, it's that fuzzed up. This one has me dancing, much like it will you. All these fucked-up relationships.:

Come on honey, turn me loose/ I'm gon na enjoy you like a ball and chain

Fucking dazzling. "First Light" remembers Chickenstones' origins with the stand-up bass and the huge hairdos. Today, they reek menace and pace like tigers, and most likely bring flick-knives in their boots. " Crawling King Snake" is another tour de force. In context, it strikes out of a hole like a funnel-web onto a bug. (That's us). I simply like the groove these males take out of no place, a strong stoner drive but set to a nastier speed and with a far, far nastier vibe. I think it's Phil's vocal, by god it's remarkable. Then there's "I Got ta Move" (" the method you treat me darlin', is a criminal activity"), Child Jane' and 'Hooks In Me'. Groovy? The Stones are setting a criteria upon standards here. And I'll agree with The Barman again: the Stones explain those tortured male vs female relationships without assuming it's one-sided. There are clearly two sides. "Child Jane" (" Take an appearance in the mirror/ Infant Jane things are looking grimmer") ... Oh, and. The reason I keep calling the Chickenstones "the 'Stones" is because as far as I'm worried, the Rolling Stones might be good, however give me this bunch of Sydney scruffians any day. More genuine, sincere, more power, great songs ... (also, their Tee shirts are more affordable). "Mystery Train" is heavily addictive and on heavy repeat at Bunker Brokenmouth. There's not a duff or slightly crap track here, it's all the excellent stuff you want and more. Wan na know something else? Right now you can picture the band playing in an Islington bar circa 1966, or an Austin bar in the 1970s and blowing the location apart, any Sydney joint in the '70s and 1980's and embarrassing Midnight Oil, and ... you understand?

The (Chicken) Stones are a band for perpetuity, and you 'd be a mug not to have them burning a hole in your collection. Dig the clips:

Now get yer wallet out and go * * * * * I was talking with my dealership (Mark at Streetlight Records, in Adelaide) a few days ago, and said that there is merely no other way to stay up to date with the enormous quantity of material being released, rereleased, and all the amazing things you lost out on first time around, which existed way, way before you were born. It's madness. The large range of choice, the problem in detecting sparkle among the range of mountains of indifferent filth ... So, when I check out Kasumuen's description of Majestic Horses, "the brand-new band for members of Screamfeeder/ Deafcult, The Holy Soul and The Uncertain", I felt rather irked with myself. Have I heard of these attires? Yes. Have I heard them? No. Not one of them. ( ED: Must be an Adelaide thing.) Kasumuen continues: "Kellie Lloyd (Screamfeeder) is competently backed by Kate Wilson (The Holy Soul, previously The Laurels) and Andrew P Street (The Unsure, Career Girls)." Well, one thing is that I need to have no preconceptions today. And you, dear reader, will understand more about Screamfeeder than I do. Kasumuen encourages, "pedigree musicians schooled from record collections likewise filled with '90s shoegaze, indie and dream-pop". Oh, bugger. I shouldn't have checked out that. Dammit, terms like "shoegaze" constantly aggravate me ( ED: Me too) - for instance, I loved Flight's first EP, but then ... I bought the 2nd EP, and LP, and ... no. And ... I even saw Flight live, too. No. Did not get me. And again, when I saw Sonic Youth in 1989 I went straight off them (I had all their records up until then). And I have actually never ever listened to them given that. Charming individuals, so I collect. And maybe I was extremely extreme (I was 26, FFS). ... you see what I indicate. A mountain range of choice. And don't get me started on "indie", hell, from the mid '80s when that term was trumpeted as a virtuous badge of honour it always seemed to me to be code for "songs not quite sufficient". The idea was crucial in 1976, however by 1986, I hated it. Oh, shit, prejudgments. Well, let's put "Majestic Horses" on and have a listen. I immediately enjoy the swirling, measured guitar, and the vocal. I'm presuming these are Kellie Lloyd; she's extremely gifted. The title track, "Away from the Sun" is terrific and gets my attention, as does " Scene of the Criminal offense". Do bear in mind that while these folks - particularly Kellie-- have considerable cred and history, I can just hear this out of that context. Production worths are high, the sound is cool. On my first listen, I believe that this is excessive genric ... That said, you might fairly say that of The Meanies, The Johnnys or any one of numerous popular attires. That's not much of a criticism. And you'll have thought by now that I initially had trouble here. Yet there's a lot to like here; former "Db" writer Street's bass is frequently interesting and appealing (" Signal"), Kellie's marvelous vocals (with fine lyrics to match) ... in reality the appeal here is an ill, nauseating thing (see 'Damage Whatever'). It appears I may have a concern with the style. ... ... and then ... I got it. Took me a while. Not the first time I couldn't see the wood for the trees, and I expect it will not be the last. Majestic Horses are a sonic rollercoaster, a slow ice-cream scream, the quiet bulk who are happiest when offering you tinnitis. Honestly, I presume Majestic Horses are one of those bands you need to see live to truly get them. They'll remain in Adelaide in a number of weeks - they're on tour at the moment - so I'll see for myself. I dug a little and discovered that Majestic Horses supported Swervedriver on their current tour, and went down well with the audience - and this only their second or third gig. Nevertheless ... "Away from the Sun" grows on you, in the exact same method that, possibly, that while some folks warbled about the newest fad ('80s Bowie, for instance, or New Romantics) you were falling down a Cohen or Velvets or Fugs rabbit-hole. So much for prejudgments-- I shouldn't have read the Kasumuen blurb, should I? Perhaps "dream-pop" put me off more than I realised. But, no, carefully crafted tunes, backed with strong, strong rhythms and ripping, seething guitar constantly triumphes. There's that voice ... yeah nah yeah Majestic Horses are magical, like a winged chimpanzee is magical. One last thing: if this lyric doesn't make you identify our immediate world and the continuing impending crisis of our types ... the voice of her generation?

Yesterdays divide messed up all the static in the air, on the radio. It comes as not a surprise, The garbage you walk by today is the garbage we accept tomorrow., The trash we choose up tomorrow, the garbage we expect tomorrow, The garbage we accept tomorrow. Statues sit inside, whatever is old and dead and dirty, Old and dead and dusty. it's comfy regardless of your custom-mades and conditioning, no requirement to dispose of anything. i'm here to ruin whatever. We need to destroy, We're here to ruin everything.

Last week 4ZZZ made 'Far from the Sun' their LP of the week. They were right. Buy it here or her. Catch the Majestic Horses:

November 29: Major Tom's (Kyneton) November 30: The Old Bar (Melbourne) December 1: Tramway Hotel (City of Yarra) December 14: The Crown and Anchor, Adelaide

" 4" > - Scarth

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[mari-musing]

Roundup 28 & 29 April 2017 I just read about a 12-year-old Australian rock climber, Angie Scarth-Johnson, who is already the best junior in the world and is set to eclipse the world women’s competition as well. Not your average tween girl! To have the mental and physical strength to attempt Grade 34 climbs is remarkable.

I, on the other hand, was screaming after a 00:02:30 wall-sit haha! (I might add it was deeper than the high-angle photo shows - 90° or nothing lol - and I was still jolly at the 30s mark. 😂) This was a Healthy Challenge Group flash challenge - I also did bicycle crunches and pushups - but that has been the extent of my exertions, other than client demonstrations. (I try to make those count; not just go through the motions.)

I have been suffering with my bowel disease as a result of the (truncated) antibiotics course for persistent facial dermatitis. I have been getting up many times in the night and was late for work every day this week. Such is the life of a spoonie with an invisible illness because, of course, I look perfectly normal, but my reality can be extremely painful and messy. The worst part is the fatigue.

In my work, I listen to the difficulties others are experiencing and help them improve their lives by building their strength and fitness. One thing that makes me good at my job is empathy and understanding; I do know how hard it is to find the energy to exercise - do anything - when you are struggling to put one foot in front of the other. When I feel low, I think of what I tell my patients and try to practice what I preach. I can be bright for them, so I should be bright for myself! I inspire them but they inspire me too.

Last night was particularly bad so this morning I passed up the Autumn Liv Ride (such a beautiful day too) and started my day with a 15 minute meditation. I am pretty pleased that I am showing perseverance with the meditation because I think it might be a keystone for improvement, and, as I’ve noted before, the science concurs.

I also plan to get a bit more running in this winter so treated myself to the humorous SunFrog leggings and their ‘Ohhhhhh Shift!’ tee-shirt, which pretty much sums me up on hills.

The food porn is smashed avocado at Doric Street Café, my new favourite place.

[gentlemanpixelator]

Regina, Saskatchewan. Scarth Street

[deeisace]

agh tumblr why are you like this

i had a post fuckin yonks ago, idk when, which was basicly using the vague lives of various distanct relatives of mine as the basis of a story

main character was to be an amalgamation of two of my very-great-aunts - Isabella Fergus who was in a very very awful orphanage, and the other i think her name was Mary or smth old-fashioned but unremarkable, who was a latch-press - that is, made latches, but which sounds like an old-fashioned word for burgular, tbh

and her brother Henry, who is a ghost. based off my very distant cousin Henry Bird, who was only ever seen, by me at least, on the passenger list going to Ontario in 1873-ish, at 8 years old - there are no records for him on either side of the pond and i’m very confused

and then also this guy who is like a preacher/teacher/failed-moral-compass for Isabella, based off my 4th great grandfather John Scarth, who was the choir master (i’ve forgotten the scottish word for it) at St Magnus’ Cathedral in Orkney for decades, and had a “very neat manner” and sung or Temperance Movement meetings

and this family based off my several-times great-aunt’s family - her husband was legally married to the woman next door, and they had at least 10 children between the houses over 15 years - the youngest two were baptised to the opposite mothers as they were living with on the census, tho idk about the rest. In story, I’d spose, I’d say imagine the Weasleys but with more parents and more pickpocketing/mild crime, and/or Fagin’s gang in Oliver Twist but nicer, and with a ghost.

and the bad guy of the story is based off my 3rd great grandfather, who was an absolute cock in a lot of ways - alcoholic and a physical abuser of at least his wife, tho what put him in prison a lot was not this, nor the stealing or fighting in the streets or such as that, it was listed as “abandonment of wife and children” - which these days I spose would be termed neglect? he disappeared on benders to pubs for days on end and there wasn’t money for food nor rent (somewhat reminicent of my dad in his early/mid 20s, tbh, i’m displeased to note, altho my dad was never physically abusive, he’s just a twat about money and also in the past about many many drugs, and can be emotionally manipulative and occasionally gas-lighty. so that’s cheerful). anyway.

so in story this guy is like a mob-boss type who isabella kinda accidentally angrily breaks into his house on the advice of another of my uncles, Mark Darke, who is included purely on the basis of his really stupid name (Susanna, I know it was 1842, but why would you give your son such a stupid name? Mind you, it’s probably on par with Redvers Madge - Jack, the rest of your children had normal names why did you do that to your youngest? I can see why he went by his middle name, Henry. There’s not even anyone in the area with that last name, as I can find, so Elizabeth probably wasn’t having an affair. what’s the excuse for giving your child such a stupid name then?)

anyway anyway

so my thought today was

cs talking about graverobbers and resurrectionists, yeah

what if

or like, what happened to Henry the ghost’s body?

what if the body is also still about? as like a zombie or a, a ghoul?? no, i don’t know enough about such to say which kind of previously-alive person he’d be

but how would it be to have another version of yourself, sort of, runnin about concurrently?

would the body be exactly the same as the ghost/soul? would they have personality differences? what’s their relationship like, do they get on or is it really weird to meet yourself-except-not?

but both of them are themselves-but-not. bcs neither of them are alive-henry.

so how does all of this work then? is one closer to the alive-henry than the other? or is it just that they are kinda-sorta-new-folks, just with the same-ish face, and name?

lots of things to think!

[estimize]

Exploring Multifactor Models in Constructing the Estimize Signal

Predicting asset price movements with a high degree of certainty is harder than ever in today’s dynamic environment which includes a greater focus on quantitative trading. The finance profession is no longer confined to well connected MBA candidates from Wharton claiming to have a knack for stock picking. Many of the best and brightest in physics and mathematics now hold high profile positions on Wall Street and are responsible for defining the mathematical models to unlock potential mispricing opportunities in the market. But given the increasing complexities and intricacies of the market, building an accurate model requires choosing a set of complementing factors which accurately explain and understand the pattern of security returns.

This forecasting technique predates contemporary trading strategies. In the early 90s, Kenneth French and Nobel prize winning economist Eugene Fama examined the differences in returns of a diversified portfolio, now known as the Fama-French 3 Factor Model. The model takes principles of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which states that expected returns of a portfolio equal the risk free rate plus a risk premium, two steps further. Decades of empirical research established that a single beta factor inadequately describes an asset's true movement, only explaining 70% of actual returns. In other words, if a stock increases 10%, about 70% of that movement can be explained by a single risk factor with the remaining 30% due to other factors. In response to CAPM’s shortcomings, Fama and French added size and value components to the original risk factor for a more astute description of asset price movements. Extensive backtesting concluded that the combination of size, value and risk explained between 90 and 95% of total returns, doing a better job of clarifying market anomalies.

As factor analysis becomes more commonplace, a greater number of financial professionals are applying enhanced tools to explain market performance. Most funds now employ a multi factor discipline, often kept from the public eye, to discover hidden gems or impoverished stocks that can be leveraged into profitable trades. In general, many models use some form of fundamental analysis to understand the relationship between price movement and underlying financials, such as earnings. But over time, the ubiquity of fundamental and sell side earnings estimates data means the alpha previously found in quantitative models now turns to beta. Building an effective earnings model that generates alpha in today’s market requires an alternative data set.

With this in mind, we built the Estimize Signal. It’s a multifactor model based on multiple layers of our proprietary crowdsourced earnings estimates. We leveraged research from an earlier paper, “Generating Abnormal Returns Using CrowdSourced Earnings Forecasts from Estimize”, first published by our CEO, Leigh Drogen, and Head of Quant, Vinesh Jha, in 2014.  

The biggest factors used in the construction of the Signal comprise a pre earnings component measuring the difference between Estimize and Wall Street as well as post earnings factors such as recent earnings surprises benchmarked against Estimize forecasts. It’s possible to trade both factors independently and generate above average returns, but together it forms a highly powerful tool to generate superior alpha. Ultimately, though, the signal aides funds in position sizing and execution timing across the 2000+ U.S. stocks covered in the Estimize universe and not predicting the exact results of an earnings report or any price movement through print.

The Signal’s inputs include the following factors:

Pre Earnings

The difference between Wall Street expected earnings and the Estimize Select Consensus, which is a re-weighted composite forecast of Estimize EPS forecasts, with weights based on the contributor’s track record and the timeliness of their forecasts.  The idea is that the Estimize community provides forecasts which are leading indicators of future Wall Street revisions

The difference between the average Estimize contributor’s EPS estimate and the Estimize Select Consensus.  The idea is that top Estimize contributors lead other Estimize contributors and provide an early indication of revisions generally

The historical likelihood of a company, and others in its industry, to beat or miss EPS and Revenue targets.  Wall Street estimates, unlike Estimize estimates, tend to exhibit predictable biases, possibly relating to companies’ ability to manage Wall Street estimates more effectively than they can manage the Estimize community

Post Earnings

The degree to which earnings beat or missed the Estimize Select Consensus, which is a more accurate representation of the market’s true expectations than is the Wall Street consensus – and therefore is a better benchmark for earnings surprises and the subsequent price drift

The Signal also overweights cases in which the company beat (missed) relative to Estimize, but missed (beat) relative to Wall Street; these are even stronger signals

Delivery of the Signal occurs on a daily basis before the market opens and covers 400 companies reporting in a 13 day window. We specifically designed it this way to harness the most value out of the Estimize data set which peaks in the 10 days leading up and 3 days following an earnings announcement. Meanwhile, daily cuts of data provide managers with sufficient time to exit positions immediately ahead of a company’s report (i.e. same day for reports after market closes and prior day for before opening bell) or enter a new trades in those that recently reported. The Signal, itself, takes on a uniform distribution with scores ranging between -100 and +100.

Although every investor analyzes the data in their own unique way, we found using a dollar neutral strategy generates hefty returns. A basic market neutral strategy by definition seeks to limit systemic risk by taking simultaneous long and short positions either in individual instruments or at the portfolio level. Because one position occurs in conjunction with another  the strategy effectively reduces directional exposure and shifts in market sentiment. Profiting using a market neutral strategy depends on the delta in price between two stocks, or in this case the long and short components.

One of the earliest forms of pairs trading (long/short) dates back to the 1960s when Ed Thorp launched the first market neutral derivatives hedge fund, Princeton Newport Partners. The fund compiled a track record of 227 winning months and only 3 losing months, touting annualized returns of about 20% before fees. But even before that Thorp successfully used a “delta hedging strategy”, another term for the same thing, to identify trading opportunities in options. Track records such as Thorp’s prove it's possible to beat the market with a highly disciplined and mathematical approach.

In essence, the Estimize Signal trading strategy incorporates many of the fundamental principles pioneered by Thorp nearly 50 years ago. A score of positive 100 represents a buying opportunity while a negative 100 screams a short with each subsequent cut of data representing another chance to rebalance or make additional trades.

In our hypothetical portfolio, we created an equally weighted long/short portfolio of stocks in the top and bottom deciles according to a given day’s Signal score. The dollar neutral returns equal the difference between the long and the short portfolio’s return. Over the past 5 years, a dollar neutral strategy using the Signal produced average annualized returns of 23.1% with a 1.75 Sharpe. Returns peaked at 37.7% with a 2.75 Sharpe in 2015 and bottomed in the first 9 months of 2016, but more importantly the Signal produced returns that far exceed the S&P 500 in 4 of the 5 years of testing (Note: In 2013 the S&P 500 jumped 26% whereas the Signal produced returns of about 21%). In other words, investing with the Signal at the start of 2012 generated compounded annualized returns of 173% through Q3 2016 compared to 70% collected by the S&P 500.

Funds employ some of the greatest minds in the world to answer a simple question that escaped the finance profession for so long, “What really drives performance? The answer can  vary depending on who you ask and what factors they use to model market behavior. However, many investors recognize that the most accurate models trade on  some form fundamental data, namely earnings.  To help meet this growing need we developed the Estimize Signal, a multifactor model that uses our proprietary pre and post earnings data to aide traders during earnings season. And in doing so, the model yielded a rate of return that far exceeds the broad market with each passing quarter.

To learn more visit us at Estimize or email us sales@estimize.com 

Photo Credit: Robert Scarth

[scarth123]

MY DAYS 78

V used to be a patient, but now she’s a friend. We’re preparing to go out to the Oakland First Friday street fair, and her caregiver is getting her dressed. She asks, “How are you going to get undressed and into your nightgown when you get home?”

V says,”Oh, Scarth can help me. He’s a good friend. He’s seen me at my worst. The first time he came to visit me for therapy, he ended up cleaning shit off of me after I had an accident in bed.”

V smiles, “It was love at first wipe.”

[officialvirago]

Details of Knox-Metropolitan United Church. Carved into stone on the front of the church a sign read "Destroyed and rebuilt 1912". Knox-Metropolitan United Church is the current manifestation of Presbyterian and Methodist congregations that date back to 1885. The original Knox Church was constructed in 1885 at Scarth Street and 11th Avenue. The current location at Victoria and Lorne had its groundbreaking in 1906 and was designed by Architects Darling and Pearson. Knox and Metropolitan churches were both destroyed by the Regina Cyclone of 1912 and immediately rebuilt. In 1951 the two congregations of the now-United Church of Canada merged and occupied the Metropolitan building with the rebuilt Knox being demolished. 2340 Victoria Avenue, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. Source: Wikipedia #travel #wanderlust #details #godisinthedetails #wandering #traveladdict #photoart #adventurist #photoart #awesome #adventurist #wow #awe #art #ReginaCyclone #heritagebuilding #UnitedChurch #UnitedChurchofCanada #wandering #architecture #reginask #Saskatchewan #Canada #seeYQR #exploreYQR #Regina #YQR FotoQuartet (at Knox-Metropolitan United Church)

[viragoland]

Details of murals outside 2158 12th Avenue in Regina. This 1912 Building was former home to the infamous Novia Café for 93 years from 1918 - 2011. This area is now part of City Square Plaza- the Regina Downtown Business Improvement District. This area is home to Regina's Farmers’ Market. The project had some trees removed from Victoria Park and large steel sculptures installed (lower right photo) in the downtown park along 12th Avenue between Scarth and Lorne streets. City Square Plaza, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. Source: https://www.regina.ca/residents/parks/city-square/ #travel #wanderlust #globalgypsy #details #godisinthedetails #wandering #traveladdict #travelbug #traveladdicts #streetarteverywhere #paint #streetart #colors #colours #art #traveladdiction #worldtraveladdict #photoart #awesome #CitySquareRegina #adventurist #Saskatchewan #YQR #Regina #canada #FotoQuartet #CitySquarePlaza #CitySquare #seeyqr #CitySquarePlazaRegina (at City Square Plaza)

[calvinzeepeda79]

Exploring Multifactor Models in Constructing the Estimize Signal

Predicting asset price movements with a high degree of certainty is harder than ever in today’s dynamic environment which includes a greater focus on quantitative trading. The finance profession is no longer confined to well connected MBA candidates from Wharton claiming to have a knack for stock picking. Many of the best and brightest in physics and mathematics now hold high profile positions on Wall Street and are responsible for defining the mathematical models to unlock potential mispricing opportunities in the market. But given the increasing complexities and intricacies of the market, building an accurate model requires choosing a set of complementing factors which accurately explain and understand the pattern of security returns.

This forecasting technique predates contemporary trading strategies. In the early 90s, Kenneth French and Nobel prize winning economist Eugene Fama examined the differences in returns of a diversified portfolio, now known as the Fama-French 3 Factor Model. The model takes principles of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which states that expected returns of a portfolio equal the risk free rate plus a risk premium, two steps further. Decades of empirical research established that a single beta factor inadequately describes an asset’s true movement, only explaining 70% of actual returns. In other words, if a stock increases 10%, about 70% of that movement can be explained by a single risk factor with the remaining 30% due to other factors. In response to CAPM’s shortcomings, Fama and French added size and value components to the original risk factor for a more astute description of asset price movements. Extensive backtesting concluded that the combination of size, value and risk explained between 90 and 95% of total returns, doing a better job of clarifying market anomalies.

As factor analysis becomes more commonplace, a greater number of financial professionals are applying enhanced tools to explain market performance. Most funds now employ a multi factor discipline, often kept from the public eye, to discover hidden gems or impoverished stocks that can be leveraged into profitable trades. In general, many models use some form of fundamental analysis to understand the relationship between price movement and underlying financials, such as earnings. But over time, the ubiquity of fundamental and sell side earnings estimates data means the alpha previously found in quantitative models now turns to beta. Building an effective earnings model that generates alpha in today’s market requires an alternative data set.

With this in mind, we built the Estimize Signal. It’s a multifactor model based on multiple layers of our proprietary crowdsourced earnings estimates. We leveraged research from an earlier paper, “Generating Abnormal Returns Using CrowdSourced Earnings Forecasts from Estimize”, first published by our CEO, Leigh Drogen, and Head of Quant, Vinesh Jha, in 2014.  

The biggest factors used in the construction of the Signal comprise a pre earnings component measuring the difference between Estimize and Wall Street as well as post earnings factors such as recent earnings surprises benchmarked against Estimize forecasts. It’s possible to trade both factors independently and generate above average returns, but together it forms a highly powerful tool to generate superior alpha. Ultimately, though, the signal aides funds in position sizing and execution timing across the 2000+ U.S. stocks covered in the Estimize universe and not predicting the exact results of an earnings report or any price movement through print.

The Signal’s inputs include the following factors:

Pre Earnings

The difference between Wall Street expected earnings and the Estimize Select Consensus, which is a re-weighted composite forecast of Estimize EPS forecasts, with weights based on the contributor’s track record and the timeliness of their forecasts.  The idea is that the Estimize community provides forecasts which are leading indicators of future Wall Street revisions

The difference between the average Estimize contributor’s EPS estimate and the Estimize Select Consensus.  The idea is that top Estimize contributors lead other Estimize contributors and provide an early indication of revisions generally

The historical likelihood of a company, and others in its industry, to beat or miss EPS and Revenue targets.  Wall Street estimates, unlike Estimize estimates, tend to exhibit predictable biases, possibly relating to companies’ ability to manage Wall Street estimates more effectively than they can manage the Estimize community

Post Earnings

The degree to which earnings beat or missed the Estimize Select Consensus, which is a more accurate representation of the market’s true expectations than is the Wall Street consensus – and therefore is a better benchmark for earnings surprises and the subsequent price drift

The Signal also overweights cases in which the company beat (missed) relative to Estimize, but missed (beat) relative to Wall Street; these are even stronger signals

Delivery of the Signal occurs on a daily basis before the market opens and covers 400 companies reporting in a 13 day window. We specifically designed it this way to harness the most value out of the Estimize data set which peaks in the 10 days leading up and 3 days following an earnings announcement. Meanwhile, daily cuts of data provide managers with sufficient time to exit positions immediately ahead of a company’s report (i.e. same day for reports after market closes and prior day for before opening bell) or enter a new trades in those that recently reported. The Signal, itself, takes on a uniform distribution with scores ranging between -100 and +100.

Although every investor analyzes the data in their own unique way, we found using a dollar neutral strategy generates hefty returns. A basic market neutral strategy by definition seeks to limit systemic risk by taking simultaneous long and short positions either in individual instruments or at the portfolio level. Because one position occurs in conjunction with another  the strategy effectively reduces directional exposure and shifts in market sentiment. Profiting using a market neutral strategy depends on the delta in price between two stocks, or in this case the long and short components.

One of the earliest forms of pairs trading (long/short) dates back to the 1960s when Ed Thorp launched the first market neutral derivatives hedge fund, Princeton Newport Partners. The fund compiled a track record of 227 winning months and only 3 losing months, touting annualized returns of about 20% before fees. But even before that Thorp successfully used a “delta hedging strategy”, another term for the same thing, to identify trading opportunities in options. Track records such as Thorp’s prove it’s possible to beat the market with a highly disciplined and mathematical approach.

In essence, the Estimize Signal trading strategy incorporates many of the fundamental principles pioneered by Thorp nearly 50 years ago. A score of positive 100 represents a buying opportunity while a negative 100 screams a short with each subsequent cut of data representing another chance to rebalance or make additional trades.

In our hypothetical portfolio, we created an equally weighted long/short portfolio of stocks in the top and bottom deciles according to a given day’s Signal score. The dollar neutral returns equal the difference between the long and the short portfolio’s return. Over the past 5 years, a dollar neutral strategy using the Signal produced average annualized returns of 23.1% with a 1.75 Sharpe. Returns peaked at 37.7% with a 2.75 Sharpe in 2015 and bottomed in the first 9 months of 2016, but more importantly the Signal produced returns that far exceed the S&P 500 in 4 of the 5 years of testing (Note: In 2013 the S&P 500 jumped 26% whereas the Signal produced returns of about 21%). In other words, investing with the Signal at the start of 2012 generated compounded annualized returns of 173% through Q3 2016 compared to 70% collected by the S&P 500.

Funds employ some of the greatest minds in the world to answer a simple question that escaped the finance profession for so long, “What really drives performance? The answer can  vary depending on who you ask and what factors they use to model market behavior. However, many investors recognize that the most accurate models trade on  some form fundamental data, namely earnings.  To help meet this growing need we developed the Estimize Signal, a multifactor model that uses our proprietary pre and post earnings data to aide traders during earnings season. And in doing so, the model yielded a rate of return that far exceeds the broad market with each passing quarter.

Photo Credit: Robert Scarth