#warren causing chaos as usual. just another wednesday

[lureofthegallowsgame]

could I perhaps request "tousle" or "belt loops" for Warren the loml? 🥰

Warren simps rise up 😤

“Stop moving,” I told him, poking his cheek. “You’re gonna loosen it and cheat.”

“It’s not cheating,” Warren insisted as I tightened the blindfold. I twisted the knot together firmly, admired my work, then tousled his dark hair just enough to make him laugh. “That’s an unfair advantage, you know.”

“Oh, yeah?” I teased. I combed my fingers through the soft locks of his hair, tidying the waves the way he liked it. It didn’t miss my attention that he arranged his hair in such a way that it left my gaze lingering. As if he had to present himself perfectly to keep my attention. I loved him regardless of his hairstyle, yet we left that space between us with unspoken acknowledgment. He made an effort to be better with slow, unsure steps, and I  supported him. I would cheer him forward and catch him when he fell back.

Even if that meant fixing his hair when I playfully tousled it, or prodding him to make room in the mirror for the both of us to get ready in the morning together.

“Oh, yeah. I can’t defend myself if I can’t see,” Warren said wryly. He had that little smirk at the corner of his mouth that he always had when he teased me. Despite his initial complaints, he settled back in his chair as I ran my fingers through his hair, letting our silence lay content. The quiet felt like a gift in the wake of the past few months, as if the world was letting us catch our breath. I could take this precious time to admire the relaxed slant of his shoulders, the near-imperceptible tilt of his head as he let me manipulate his head to fix his hair, the soft smile touching the corner of his mouth where his smirk gentled into something more vulnerable.

“There,” I finally said, smoothing my hands over his broad shoulders and giving him a squeeze. “You look beautiful again.”

“My hero,” Warren sighed. He tilted his head back slowly, and even with his eyes hidden behind the fold of the fabric, I could sense his happiness, the burn of his hidden eyes attuned to my presence. I leaned forward and pressed a kiss to his forehead, the bridge of his nose, my lips brushing the fabric of his blindfold with a whisper. He sighed, and I pressed a fleeting kiss to the corner of his mouth with a laugh.

“Seriously, we have to go before we get distracted,” I told him. Still, I hovered in his space, close enough to feel his soft breath brushing against my cheek and the warmth of his shoulders underneath my hands. He didn’t move, either. That teasing smirk played on the edge of his smile, burning a wildfire in the pit of my stomach.

“It would be a shame, wouldn’t it?” Warren murmured. Then he lifted his chin, and I met him halfway in a soft, proper kiss. I cupped the curve of his jaw in my palms, thumbing the edge of his cheekbones reverently.

For a long moment, we stayed together. I could imagine giving in, canceling our dinner reservation, and settling into the warmth of his embrace. I could imagine avoiding the eyes of the world around us in favor of this addicting feeling.

I pulled back slowly. “Nice try, Mr. Sinclair.”

“Worth a shot,” he said, and it was a little breathless, longing in a way that made my mouth dry.

[nicholerestrada]

How to think about the China talks

Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE CHINA TALKS — There will be closer to 60 days to make a deal one we get through the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. And there likely won’t be any serious talks before that. Once we hit the new year, there are likely to be several rounds of talks including possible U.S. delegations to Beijing and Chinese visits to Washington, though as of Thursday there was no schedule set up yet.

Story Continued Below

That’s not much time for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to put together a meaningful accord that would include specific goals for the Chinese to meet on intellectual property rights, forced technology transfer and other key administration goals.

The document will also have to include timetables for compliance and a mechanism for verification. The Chinese are good at making vague promises and then not doing much of anything to comply with them. This is not true of buying U.S. products, which they are more than happy to do and doesn’t actually mean anything to their long-term goals.

There is almost no chance any of this can get done in sixty days. Which means there will have either have to be extensions or President Trump can accept a weak deal or push ahead with a trade war escalation.

Trump alone will make this call and he probably has little idea at this point which way he is going to go. His senior advisers certainly don’t know. A lot will depend on how markets are doing in late February, what the Fed has done on rates, what’s happening in the Mueller probe and what Trump’s mood is like.

The betting here is that Trump will care more about market reaction and not screwing up the economy heading toward re-election than he will about complaints from hardliners like Peter Navarro that he is not being tough enough with China. This makes the most likely outcome an extension past March 1 for more work or acceptance of modest promises and more Chines goods purchases.

CHIEF OF STAFF HUNT GOES ON — Our Rebecca Morin: “Trump said on Thursday that he’s narrowed his chief of staff search down to five candidates, but he refused to reveal who’s now on the short-list. During a meeting with governors-elect, the president teased out vague details of the search in reality-show style. ‘Five people. Really good ones. Terrific people. Mostly well known, but terrific people,’ Trump said. Trump did not name any of the candidates or say when a decision will be made.

“Trump has repeatedly insisted that it’s a highly coveted job, even as top White House aide Kellyanne Conway hinted that Kelly may stay on longer than the end of 2018. … Other contenders floated have included David Bossie, a former Trump campaign deputy manager; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer; and Republican fundraiser Wayne Berman.” Read more.

IS HE GOING TO JARED? — HuffPo’s S.V. Date: “Jared Kushner, the husband of Trump’s daughter Ivanka and already an official White House adviser, met with Trump Wednesday about the job, a top Republican close to the White House told HuffPost. He and two others close to Trump or the White House who confirmed Kushner’s interest in the position did so on condition of anonymity to discuss the president’s staffing considerations freely.

“Kushner has been pushing his own candidacy with Trump, citing his work on a criminal justice reform package and a claimed ability to work with Democrats, one person said.” Read more.

WP’s Josh Dawsey on Twitter: “A White House official says Jared Kushner is not under consideration for chief of staff and is not interviewing for the job. (The usual Trump White House caveats apply here.)”

MM SIDEBAR — We are told by one person close to the White House that Christie is unlikely due to frictions with Kushner, though Trump could overrule his son-in-law. We are also told that Mulvaney actually does want it (very badly) and could somehow wind up with it if no other candidate emerges, though wanting it is usually a very bad look with Trump. Blackstone’s Wayne Berman is again on some short lists but we are told he is not among the FINAL FIVE. Anyway, it’s a big, Trump Show mess.

BOSSIE THE BOSS? — Our Gabby Orr, Andrew Restuccia and Rebecca Morin: “Depending on who you ask … Bossie, a controversial Republican operative excluded from the president’s earliest batch of hires, is either a frontrunner or a nonstarter in … Trump’s chief of staff sweepstakes.

“Some White House allies say Bossie, formerly Trump’s deputy campaign manager, shot to the top of the list the minute Trump expressed an interest in having an effective political operator in the slot. … People close to the White House said the president has even discussed splitting the job into two separate positions: one person tasked with focusing on the day-to-day operations of the West Wing and another person charged with orchestrating a political strategy ahead of the 2020 election.” Read more.

CRAPO WEIGHS DEUTSCHE INVESTIGATION — Per our Zachary Warmbrodt: Senate Banking Chairman Mike Crapo says he’s taking a request by Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Elizabeth Warren to investigate Deutsche Bank “under advisement” but he’s hesitant to single out a specific company.

“The Banking Committee has not yet, and I don’t know that I’m ready to start, singling out and creating investigations on specific companies,” Crapo told POLITICO.

Crapo said the committee’s already been reviewing anti-money laundering rules and that “I’m very open to looking into the issues further.” Police raided Deutsche’s offices recently as part of a money laundering investigation.

The company’s problems could be a case study as part of a potential anti-money laundering overhaul but Crapo said the committee also has “a list as long as your arm of issues that we need to hold hearings on.”

Sen. Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the committee, says he’s in favor of the committee “looking into all of this kind of scandal, and Deutsche Bank is sort of first in line it seems on all things scandal.”

** A message from the American Council of Life Insurers: Americans work hard and deserve a secure retirement. Now is the time for Congress to act. The American Council of Life Insurers is joined by the Insured Retirement Institute, BPC Action, Church Alliance, and other leading voices in calling on Congress to pass retirement security legislation this year. Learn more. **

FED PREP — The central bank will almost certainly boost its target rate by a quarter point next week to a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent. What happens after that is now a pretty open question.

We should get some signals from Fed Chair Jay Powell next week on whether three rate hikes are still likely for next year. He may well nudge expectations away from that and lean hard into the idea of data dependence and that any signs of a significant economic slowing could reduce the number to two, one, or even none.

RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas: “Recent Fed rhetoric implies there will be changes in the language around forward-looking guidance … which will deemphasize the dot plot forecast. We expect the committee to drop the phrase ‘further gradual increases’ in favor of something that points toward the evolution of high frequency data and risks around the outlook, which remain balanced.”

SPEAKING OF THE CHINESE BUYING STUFF — Our Megan Cassella: “China purchased 1.13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week, offering a sign that the two countries are beginning to make progress in alleviating trade tensions. The Department of Agriculture on Thursday reported the purchase, which historical data show is the ninth-largest daily sale of U.S. soybeans ever. … The purchase, which is equal to about 41 million bushels, will make up only a fraction of the total soybeans typically sold to China in a normal year.

“Including the purchase, the U.S. has sold roughly 55 million bushels to China in this marketing year, which began Sept. 1. That represents a 91 percent drop from the more than 600 million bushels sold to China at the same point last year, said John Newton, chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.” Read more.

SHOT — Trump to Fox News on the GM plant closings: “It doesn’t really matter because Ohio is, under my leadership from a national standpoint, Ohio’s going to replace those jobs like in two minutes.”

CHASER — American Bridge’s Andrew Bates emails: “Trump spent years promising the American people that he could prevent layoffs and outsourcing. But now that 11,000 American workers are losing their jobs on his watch – in part due to economic damage caused by his own trade policies – he says it ‘doesn’t really matter.’ Try telling that to the thousands of distressed families in Ohio, Michigan, and Maryland whose futures were just thrown into chaos right before the holidays.”

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend, all. Email me at bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

DRIVING THE DAY — Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent … Industrial production at 9:15 a.m. … Industrial Production at 9:15 a.m. expected to rise 0.3 percent …

NO PLAN AS SHUTDOWN NEARS — Our Sarah Ferris, Burgess Everett, and Anthony Adragna: “Without … Trump to worry about, a bipartisan deal would likely sail through Congress to fund the government ahead of the holidays. But with Trump enjoying his border wall brinkmanship, everyone in the Capitol has basically stopped talking.

“The House and Senate left town Thursday with no strategy to avert a partial government shutdown next week, putting Congress on the brink of an intractable conflict that could drag out through New Year’s Day — furloughing hundreds of thousands of workers and costing taxpayers millions.” Read more.

INSIDE THE LAST DAYS OF LLOYD — Bloomberg’s Max Abelson and Sridhar Natarajan: “When Lloyd Blankfein told his colleagues at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in July that he was going to retire from the bank’s top job, he said the timing just felt right. When things are going wrong, he wrote them in a memo, you can’t up and leave. Now in Blankfein’s final weeks as chairman of Wall Street’s most influential bank, things have gone wrong.

“Prosecutors are zeroing in on the firm’s work for a Malaysian investment fund that they say was raided in a historic plunder. Goldman’s role raising about $6.5 billion for 1MDB has become one of its ugliest scandals in a generation. In November, the U.S. Justice Department revealed that a former partner pleaded guilty to bribery charges, his deputy was arrested and the firm put a top Asia banking executive on leave. The stock is down more than 30 percent in 2018.” Read more.

MEET YOUR NEW BANKING COMMITTEE DEMOCRATS — Via Zach: Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema and Sen. Tina Smith are joining the Democratic side of the Senate Banking Committee, a pair that may effectively cancel each other out when it comes to certain regulatory issues.

The appointment of Sinema was great news for bank lobbyists. The Arizona Democrat has been one of the most industry-friendly members of her party in the House, and she supported the landmark bank deregulation bill that became law in May.

Smith opposed that legislation. Senate Banking ranking member Sherrod Brown, who led the charge against the bill, described the Minnesota Democrat as “pro-consumer” in an interview.

The committee lost two of its more “conservative members” — Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly — “and picked up a progressive and a conservative,” Brown told POLITICO.

“I don’t know Sinema,” he said. “I don’t talk to her. I’ve never seen her in action. I know that she’s not been exactly where I am politically but it’s a big country. I worked with Heidi and Joe.”

TRUMP PUSHES OPPORTUNITY ZONES — Our Brian Faler: “Trump … signed an executive order creating a new group of government officials charged with developing ways of improving the new Opportunity Zone program. The White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council will be led by Ben Carson, head of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and staffed by aides from 13 agencies.

“It will be responsible for finding ways federal agencies can support the initiative, which is designed to funnel money into designated areas for economic development. … The effort has come under criticism, though, because many of the areas were already gentrifying before the initiative began. It would also personally benefit Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner’s family, the Associated Press and Bloomberg News have reported.” Read more.

BUDGET DEFICIT UP TO $305B IN FY2019 — WSJ’s Kate “Coat Thief” Davidson: “The U.S. budget gap widened in the first two months of the fiscal year as tax collections lagged behind federal outlays, which included higher spending for the military and interest on the national debt. The government ran a $305 billion deficit in October and November, compared with $202 billion during the same period a year earlier, the Treasury Department said Thursday.

“Federal outlays climbed 18 percent the first two months of fiscal 2019, which began Oct. 1, and total receipts rose 3 percent. Much of the increase in the deficit was attributable to a shift in the timing of certain payments, the Treasury said. The first day of December fell on a Saturday this year, so payments that would have been made then were moved up to Nov. 30, boosting spending for the period.” Read more.

MNUCHIN “HAPPY,” BUT WILLING TO BE TRUMP’S CHIEF — Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Erik Wasson: “Mnuchin indicated he’d serve as White House chief of staff if President Donald Trump wants but said he’s happy in his current job. ‘I’m happy where I am,’ Mnuchin said Thursday in a brief interview at the Capitol, but added: ‘Whatever the president wants.’

“Trump said earlier Thursday that he’s weighing five candidates to succeed retired General John Kelly as White House chief of staff, after eliminating Representative Mark Meadows, a North Carolina Republican, from consideration.” Read more.

BIGGEST THREAT IN 2019? STILL THE TRADE WAR. — WSJ’s Harriet Torry: “Most economists in a recent survey view a trade war between the U.S. and China as the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019, a sign that forecasters view political uncertainty and the potential for new punitive tariff barriers as greater risks than macroeconomic or financial disruptions.

“Nearly half of economists who responded to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, 47.3 percent, said they viewed the U.S. dispute with Beijing as the No. 1 risk for 2019. Some 20 percent cited financial market disruptions and 12.7 percent pointed to a slowdown in business investment.” Read more.

ECONOMIST SCALE BACK PROJECTIONS ON FED HIKES — WSJ’s Kate Davidson: “Private economists tempered their expectations for the path of interest rates next year in a new Wall Street Journal survey, and many foresee the Federal Reserve cutting rates starting in 2020.

“All but one of the 60 economists polled expect the Fed to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate next week to a range between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent. But they dialed back their median forecast for 2019, calling for two rate increases next year rather than the three they expected when surveyed last month.” Read more.

CAN CRYPTO SURVIVE GOVERNMENT REGULATION? — NYT’s Peter Henning: “The government has finally begun a crackdown on the market for cryptocurrencies and digital tokens. Does this spell the demise of digital currencies and the end of initial coin offerings? …

“But even before the government began its crackdown, there was a big sign that euphoria was evaporating from the market: the decline in cryptocurrency ‘mining’ that generates additional digital tokens. Giga Watt, a digital currency mining operation in Washington state, filed for bankruptcy recently due in large part to the collapse in Bitcoin’s price.” Read more.

** A message from the American Council of Life Insurers: Americans work hard and deserve a secure retirement. Now is the time for Congress to act.

The American Council of Life Insurers is joined by a broad coalition of advocates across industries in calling on Congress to pass comprehensive retirement security legislation this year. Legislation now before the House and Senate would help millions of Americans prepare for a financially secure future by expanding access to retirement plans and making it easier for employers to offer guaranteed lifetime income options. Enhancements to the retirement system are needed now more than ever—10,000 Americans turn age 65 every day, with many living 30 years or more in retirement.

Congress: Support workers, retirees, and business owners by passing retirement security legislation before year’s end. Learn more. **

Source link

Source: https://hashtaghighways.com/2018/12/17/how-to-think-about-the-china-talks/

from Garko Media https://garkomedia1.wordpress.com/2018/12/17/how-to-think-about-the-china-talks/

[michaeljtraylor]

How to think about the China talks

Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE CHINA TALKS — There will be closer to 60 days to make a deal one we get through the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. And there likely won’t be any serious talks before that. Once we hit the new year, there are likely to be several rounds of talks including possible U.S. delegations to Beijing and Chinese visits to Washington, though as of Thursday there was no schedule set up yet.

Story Continued Below

That’s not much time for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to put together a meaningful accord that would include specific goals for the Chinese to meet on intellectual property rights, forced technology transfer and other key administration goals.

The document will also have to include timetables for compliance and a mechanism for verification. The Chinese are good at making vague promises and then not doing much of anything to comply with them. This is not true of buying U.S. products, which they are more than happy to do and doesn’t actually mean anything to their long-term goals.

There is almost no chance any of this can get done in sixty days. Which means there will have either have to be extensions or President Trump can accept a weak deal or push ahead with a trade war escalation.

Trump alone will make this call and he probably has little idea at this point which way he is going to go. His senior advisers certainly don’t know. A lot will depend on how markets are doing in late February, what the Fed has done on rates, what’s happening in the Mueller probe and what Trump’s mood is like.

The betting here is that Trump will care more about market reaction and not screwing up the economy heading toward re-election than he will about complaints from hardliners like Peter Navarro that he is not being tough enough with China. This makes the most likely outcome an extension past March 1 for more work or acceptance of modest promises and more Chines goods purchases.

CHIEF OF STAFF HUNT GOES ON — Our Rebecca Morin: “Trump said on Thursday that he’s narrowed his chief of staff search down to five candidates, but he refused to reveal who’s now on the short-list. During a meeting with governors-elect, the president teased out vague details of the search in reality-show style. ‘Five people. Really good ones. Terrific people. Mostly well known, but terrific people,’ Trump said. Trump did not name any of the candidates or say when a decision will be made.

“Trump has repeatedly insisted that it’s a highly coveted job, even as top White House aide Kellyanne Conway hinted that Kelly may stay on longer than the end of 2018. … Other contenders floated have included David Bossie, a former Trump campaign deputy manager; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer; and Republican fundraiser Wayne Berman.” Read more.

IS HE GOING TO JARED? — HuffPo’s S.V. Date: “Jared Kushner, the husband of Trump’s daughter Ivanka and already an official White House adviser, met with Trump Wednesday about the job, a top Republican close to the White House told HuffPost. He and two others close to Trump or the White House who confirmed Kushner’s interest in the position did so on condition of anonymity to discuss the president’s staffing considerations freely.

“Kushner has been pushing his own candidacy with Trump, citing his work on a criminal justice reform package and a claimed ability to work with Democrats, one person said.” Read more.

WP’s Josh Dawsey on Twitter: “A White House official says Jared Kushner is not under consideration for chief of staff and is not interviewing for the job. (The usual Trump White House caveats apply here.)”

MM SIDEBAR — We are told by one person close to the White House that Christie is unlikely due to frictions with Kushner, though Trump could overrule his son-in-law. We are also told that Mulvaney actually does want it (very badly) and could somehow wind up with it if no other candidate emerges, though wanting it is usually a very bad look with Trump. Blackstone’s Wayne Berman is again on some short lists but we are told he is not among the FINAL FIVE. Anyway, it’s a big, Trump Show mess.

BOSSIE THE BOSS? — Our Gabby Orr, Andrew Restuccia and Rebecca Morin: “Depending on who you ask … Bossie, a controversial Republican operative excluded from the president’s earliest batch of hires, is either a frontrunner or a nonstarter in … Trump’s chief of staff sweepstakes.

“Some White House allies say Bossie, formerly Trump’s deputy campaign manager, shot to the top of the list the minute Trump expressed an interest in having an effective political operator in the slot. … People close to the White House said the president has even discussed splitting the job into two separate positions: one person tasked with focusing on the day-to-day operations of the West Wing and another person charged with orchestrating a political strategy ahead of the 2020 election.” Read more.

CRAPO WEIGHS DEUTSCHE INVESTIGATION — Per our Zachary Warmbrodt: Senate Banking Chairman Mike Crapo says he’s taking a request by Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Elizabeth Warren to investigate Deutsche Bank “under advisement” but he’s hesitant to single out a specific company.

“The Banking Committee has not yet, and I don’t know that I’m ready to start, singling out and creating investigations on specific companies,” Crapo told POLITICO.

Crapo said the committee’s already been reviewing anti-money laundering rules and that “I’m very open to looking into the issues further.” Police raided Deutsche’s offices recently as part of a money laundering investigation.

The company’s problems could be a case study as part of a potential anti-money laundering overhaul but Crapo said the committee also has “a list as long as your arm of issues that we need to hold hearings on.”

Sen. Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the committee, says he’s in favor of the committee “looking into all of this kind of scandal, and Deutsche Bank is sort of first in line it seems on all things scandal.”

** A message from the American Council of Life Insurers: Americans work hard and deserve a secure retirement. Now is the time for Congress to act. The American Council of Life Insurers is joined by the Insured Retirement Institute, BPC Action, Church Alliance, and other leading voices in calling on Congress to pass retirement security legislation this year. Learn more. **

FED PREP — The central bank will almost certainly boost its target rate by a quarter point next week to a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent. What happens after that is now a pretty open question.

We should get some signals from Fed Chair Jay Powell next week on whether three rate hikes are still likely for next year. He may well nudge expectations away from that and lean hard into the idea of data dependence and that any signs of a significant economic slowing could reduce the number to two, one, or even none.

RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas: “Recent Fed rhetoric implies there will be changes in the language around forward-looking guidance … which will deemphasize the dot plot forecast. We expect the committee to drop the phrase ‘further gradual increases’ in favor of something that points toward the evolution of high frequency data and risks around the outlook, which remain balanced.”

SPEAKING OF THE CHINESE BUYING STUFF — Our Megan Cassella: “China purchased 1.13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week, offering a sign that the two countries are beginning to make progress in alleviating trade tensions. The Department of Agriculture on Thursday reported the purchase, which historical data show is the ninth-largest daily sale of U.S. soybeans ever. … The purchase, which is equal to about 41 million bushels, will make up only a fraction of the total soybeans typically sold to China in a normal year.

“Including the purchase, the U.S. has sold roughly 55 million bushels to China in this marketing year, which began Sept. 1. That represents a 91 percent drop from the more than 600 million bushels sold to China at the same point last year, said John Newton, chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.” Read more.

SHOT — Trump to Fox News on the GM plant closings: “It doesn’t really matter because Ohio is, under my leadership from a national standpoint, Ohio’s going to replace those jobs like in two minutes.”

CHASER — American Bridge’s Andrew Bates emails: “Trump spent years promising the American people that he could prevent layoffs and outsourcing. But now that 11,000 American workers are losing their jobs on his watch – in part due to economic damage caused by his own trade policies – he says it ‘doesn’t really matter.’ Try telling that to the thousands of distressed families in Ohio, Michigan, and Maryland whose futures were just thrown into chaos right before the holidays.”

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend, all. Email me at bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

DRIVING THE DAY — Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent … Industrial production at 9:15 a.m. … Industrial Production at 9:15 a.m. expected to rise 0.3 percent …

NO PLAN AS SHUTDOWN NEARS — Our Sarah Ferris, Burgess Everett, and Anthony Adragna: “Without … Trump to worry about, a bipartisan deal would likely sail through Congress to fund the government ahead of the holidays. But with Trump enjoying his border wall brinkmanship, everyone in the Capitol has basically stopped talking.

“The House and Senate left town Thursday with no strategy to avert a partial government shutdown next week, putting Congress on the brink of an intractable conflict that could drag out through New Year’s Day — furloughing hundreds of thousands of workers and costing taxpayers millions.” Read more.

INSIDE THE LAST DAYS OF LLOYD — Bloomberg’s Max Abelson and Sridhar Natarajan: “When Lloyd Blankfein told his colleagues at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in July that he was going to retire from the bank’s top job, he said the timing just felt right. When things are going wrong, he wrote them in a memo, you can’t up and leave. Now in Blankfein’s final weeks as chairman of Wall Street’s most influential bank, things have gone wrong.

“Prosecutors are zeroing in on the firm’s work for a Malaysian investment fund that they say was raided in a historic plunder. Goldman’s role raising about $6.5 billion for 1MDB has become one of its ugliest scandals in a generation. In November, the U.S. Justice Department revealed that a former partner pleaded guilty to bribery charges, his deputy was arrested and the firm put a top Asia banking executive on leave. The stock is down more than 30 percent in 2018.” Read more.

MEET YOUR NEW BANKING COMMITTEE DEMOCRATS — Via Zach: Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema and Sen. Tina Smith are joining the Democratic side of the Senate Banking Committee, a pair that may effectively cancel each other out when it comes to certain regulatory issues.

The appointment of Sinema was great news for bank lobbyists. The Arizona Democrat has been one of the most industry-friendly members of her party in the House, and she supported the landmark bank deregulation bill that became law in May.

Smith opposed that legislation. Senate Banking ranking member Sherrod Brown, who led the charge against the bill, described the Minnesota Democrat as “pro-consumer” in an interview.

The committee lost two of its more “conservative members” — Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly — “and picked up a progressive and a conservative,” Brown told POLITICO.

“I don’t know Sinema,” he said. “I don’t talk to her. I’ve never seen her in action. I know that she’s not been exactly where I am politically but it’s a big country. I worked with Heidi and Joe.”

TRUMP PUSHES OPPORTUNITY ZONES — Our Brian Faler: “Trump … signed an executive order creating a new group of government officials charged with developing ways of improving the new Opportunity Zone program. The White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council will be led by Ben Carson, head of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and staffed by aides from 13 agencies.

“It will be responsible for finding ways federal agencies can support the initiative, which is designed to funnel money into designated areas for economic development. … The effort has come under criticism, though, because many of the areas were already gentrifying before the initiative began. It would also personally benefit Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner’s family, the Associated Press and Bloomberg News have reported.” Read more.

BUDGET DEFICIT UP TO $305B IN FY2019 — WSJ’s Kate “Coat Thief” Davidson: “The U.S. budget gap widened in the first two months of the fiscal year as tax collections lagged behind federal outlays, which included higher spending for the military and interest on the national debt. The government ran a $305 billion deficit in October and November, compared with $202 billion during the same period a year earlier, the Treasury Department said Thursday.

“Federal outlays climbed 18 percent the first two months of fiscal 2019, which began Oct. 1, and total receipts rose 3 percent. Much of the increase in the deficit was attributable to a shift in the timing of certain payments, the Treasury said. The first day of December fell on a Saturday this year, so payments that would have been made then were moved up to Nov. 30, boosting spending for the period.” Read more.

MNUCHIN “HAPPY,” BUT WILLING TO BE TRUMP’S CHIEF — Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Erik Wasson: “Mnuchin indicated he’d serve as White House chief of staff if President Donald Trump wants but said he’s happy in his current job. ‘I’m happy where I am,’ Mnuchin said Thursday in a brief interview at the Capitol, but added: ‘Whatever the president wants.’

“Trump said earlier Thursday that he’s weighing five candidates to succeed retired General John Kelly as White House chief of staff, after eliminating Representative Mark Meadows, a North Carolina Republican, from consideration.” Read more.

BIGGEST THREAT IN 2019? STILL THE TRADE WAR. — WSJ’s Harriet Torry: “Most economists in a recent survey view a trade war between the U.S. and China as the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019, a sign that forecasters view political uncertainty and the potential for new punitive tariff barriers as greater risks than macroeconomic or financial disruptions.

“Nearly half of economists who responded to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, 47.3 percent, said they viewed the U.S. dispute with Beijing as the No. 1 risk for 2019. Some 20 percent cited financial market disruptions and 12.7 percent pointed to a slowdown in business investment.” Read more.

ECONOMIST SCALE BACK PROJECTIONS ON FED HIKES — WSJ’s Kate Davidson: “Private economists tempered their expectations for the path of interest rates next year in a new Wall Street Journal survey, and many foresee the Federal Reserve cutting rates starting in 2020.

“All but one of the 60 economists polled expect the Fed to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate next week to a range between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent. But they dialed back their median forecast for 2019, calling for two rate increases next year rather than the three they expected when surveyed last month.” Read more.

CAN CRYPTO SURVIVE GOVERNMENT REGULATION? — NYT’s Peter Henning: “The government has finally begun a crackdown on the market for cryptocurrencies and digital tokens. Does this spell the demise of digital currencies and the end of initial coin offerings? …

“But even before the government began its crackdown, there was a big sign that euphoria was evaporating from the market: the decline in cryptocurrency ‘mining’ that generates additional digital tokens. Giga Watt, a digital currency mining operation in Washington state, filed for bankruptcy recently due in large part to the collapse in Bitcoin’s price.” Read more.

** A message from the American Council of Life Insurers: Americans work hard and deserve a secure retirement. Now is the time for Congress to act.

The American Council of Life Insurers is joined by a broad coalition of advocates across industries in calling on Congress to pass comprehensive retirement security legislation this year. Legislation now before the House and Senate would help millions of Americans prepare for a financially secure future by expanding access to retirement plans and making it easier for employers to offer guaranteed lifetime income options. Enhancements to the retirement system are needed now more than ever—10,000 Americans turn age 65 every day, with many living 30 years or more in retirement.

Congress: Support workers, retirees, and business owners by passing retirement security legislation before year’s end. Learn more. **

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How to think about the China talks

Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE CHINA TALKS — There will be closer to 60 days to make a deal one we get through the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. And there likely won’t be any serious talks before that. Once we hit the new year, there are likely to be several rounds of talks including possible U.S. delegations to Beijing and Chinese visits to Washington, though as of Thursday there was no schedule set up yet.

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That’s not much time for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to put together a meaningful accord that would include specific goals for the Chinese to meet on intellectual property rights, forced technology transfer and other key administration goals.

The document will also have to include timetables for compliance and a mechanism for verification. The Chinese are good at making vague promises and then not doing much of anything to comply with them. This is not true of buying U.S. products, which they are more than happy to do and doesn’t actually mean anything to their long-term goals.

There is almost no chance any of this can get done in sixty days. Which means there will have either have to be extensions or President Trump can accept a weak deal or push ahead with a trade war escalation.

Trump alone will make this call and he probably has little idea at this point which way he is going to go. His senior advisers certainly don’t know. A lot will depend on how markets are doing in late February, what the Fed has done on rates, what’s happening in the Mueller probe and what Trump’s mood is like.

The betting here is that Trump will care more about market reaction and not screwing up the economy heading toward re-election than he will about complaints from hardliners like Peter Navarro that he is not being tough enough with China. This makes the most likely outcome an extension past March 1 for more work or acceptance of modest promises and more Chines goods purchases.

CHIEF OF STAFF HUNT GOES ON — Our Rebecca Morin: “Trump said on Thursday that he’s narrowed his chief of staff search down to five candidates, but he refused to reveal who’s now on the short-list. During a meeting with governors-elect, the president teased out vague details of the search in reality-show style. ‘Five people. Really good ones. Terrific people. Mostly well known, but terrific people,’ Trump said. Trump did not name any of the candidates or say when a decision will be made.

“Trump has repeatedly insisted that it’s a highly coveted job, even as top White House aide Kellyanne Conway hinted that Kelly may stay on longer than the end of 2018. … Other contenders floated have included David Bossie, a former Trump campaign deputy manager; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer; and Republican fundraiser Wayne Berman.” Read more.

IS HE GOING TO JARED? — HuffPo’s S.V. Date: “Jared Kushner, the husband of Trump’s daughter Ivanka and already an official White House adviser, met with Trump Wednesday about the job, a top Republican close to the White House told HuffPost. He and two others close to Trump or the White House who confirmed Kushner’s interest in the position did so on condition of anonymity to discuss the president’s staffing considerations freely.

“Kushner has been pushing his own candidacy with Trump, citing his work on a criminal justice reform package and a claimed ability to work with Democrats, one person said.” Read more.

WP’s Josh Dawsey on Twitter: “A White House official says Jared Kushner is not under consideration for chief of staff and is not interviewing for the job. (The usual Trump White House caveats apply here.)”

MM SIDEBAR — We are told by one person close to the White House that Christie is unlikely due to frictions with Kushner, though Trump could overrule his son-in-law. We are also told that Mulvaney actually does want it (very badly) and could somehow wind up with it if no other candidate emerges, though wanting it is usually a very bad look with Trump. Blackstone’s Wayne Berman is again on some short lists but we are told he is not among the FINAL FIVE. Anyway, it’s a big, Trump Show mess.

BOSSIE THE BOSS? — Our Gabby Orr, Andrew Restuccia and Rebecca Morin: “Depending on who you ask … Bossie, a controversial Republican operative excluded from the president’s earliest batch of hires, is either a frontrunner or a nonstarter in … Trump’s chief of staff sweepstakes.

“Some White House allies say Bossie, formerly Trump’s deputy campaign manager, shot to the top of the list the minute Trump expressed an interest in having an effective political operator in the slot. … People close to the White House said the president has even discussed splitting the job into two separate positions: one person tasked with focusing on the day-to-day operations of the West Wing and another person charged with orchestrating a political strategy ahead of the 2020 election.” Read more.

CRAPO WEIGHS DEUTSCHE INVESTIGATION — Per our Zachary Warmbrodt: Senate Banking Chairman Mike Crapo says he’s taking a request by Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Elizabeth Warren to investigate Deutsche Bank “under advisement” but he’s hesitant to single out a specific company.

“The Banking Committee has not yet, and I don’t know that I’m ready to start, singling out and creating investigations on specific companies,” Crapo told POLITICO.

Crapo said the committee’s already been reviewing anti-money laundering rules and that “I’m very open to looking into the issues further.” Police raided Deutsche’s offices recently as part of a money laundering investigation.

The company’s problems could be a case study as part of a potential anti-money laundering overhaul but Crapo said the committee also has “a list as long as your arm of issues that we need to hold hearings on.”

Sen. Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the committee, says he’s in favor of the committee “looking into all of this kind of scandal, and Deutsche Bank is sort of first in line it seems on all things scandal.”

** A message from the American Council of Life Insurers: Americans work hard and deserve a secure retirement. Now is the time for Congress to act. The American Council of Life Insurers is joined by the Insured Retirement Institute, BPC Action, Church Alliance, and other leading voices in calling on Congress to pass retirement security legislation this year. Learn more. **

FED PREP — The central bank will almost certainly boost its target rate by a quarter point next week to a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent. What happens after that is now a pretty open question.

We should get some signals from Fed Chair Jay Powell next week on whether three rate hikes are still likely for next year. He may well nudge expectations away from that and lean hard into the idea of data dependence and that any signs of a significant economic slowing could reduce the number to two, one, or even none.

RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas: “Recent Fed rhetoric implies there will be changes in the language around forward-looking guidance … which will deemphasize the dot plot forecast. We expect the committee to drop the phrase ‘further gradual increases’ in favor of something that points toward the evolution of high frequency data and risks around the outlook, which remain balanced.”

SPEAKING OF THE CHINESE BUYING STUFF — Our Megan Cassella: “China purchased 1.13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week, offering a sign that the two countries are beginning to make progress in alleviating trade tensions. The Department of Agriculture on Thursday reported the purchase, which historical data show is the ninth-largest daily sale of U.S. soybeans ever. … The purchase, which is equal to about 41 million bushels, will make up only a fraction of the total soybeans typically sold to China in a normal year.

“Including the purchase, the U.S. has sold roughly 55 million bushels to China in this marketing year, which began Sept. 1. That represents a 91 percent drop from the more than 600 million bushels sold to China at the same point last year, said John Newton, chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.” Read more.

SHOT — Trump to Fox News on the GM plant closings: “It doesn’t really matter because Ohio is, under my leadership from a national standpoint, Ohio’s going to replace those jobs like in two minutes.”

CHASER — American Bridge’s Andrew Bates emails: “Trump spent years promising the American people that he could prevent layoffs and outsourcing. But now that 11,000 American workers are losing their jobs on his watch – in part due to economic damage caused by his own trade policies – he says it ‘doesn’t really matter.��� Try telling that to the thousands of distressed families in Ohio, Michigan, and Maryland whose futures were just thrown into chaos right before the holidays.”

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend, all. Email me at bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

DRIVING THE DAY — Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent … Industrial production at 9:15 a.m. … Industrial Production at 9:15 a.m. expected to rise 0.3 percent …

NO PLAN AS SHUTDOWN NEARS — Our Sarah Ferris, Burgess Everett, and Anthony Adragna: “Without … Trump to worry about, a bipartisan deal would likely sail through Congress to fund the government ahead of the holidays. But with Trump enjoying his border wall brinkmanship, everyone in the Capitol has basically stopped talking.

“The House and Senate left town Thursday with no strategy to avert a partial government shutdown next week, putting Congress on the brink of an intractable conflict that could drag out through New Year’s Day — furloughing hundreds of thousands of workers and costing taxpayers millions.” Read more.

INSIDE THE LAST DAYS OF LLOYD — Bloomberg’s Max Abelson and Sridhar Natarajan: “When Lloyd Blankfein told his colleagues at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in July that he was going to retire from the bank’s top job, he said the timing just felt right. When things are going wrong, he wrote them in a memo, you can’t up and leave. Now in Blankfein’s final weeks as chairman of Wall Street’s most influential bank, things have gone wrong.

“Prosecutors are zeroing in on the firm’s work for a Malaysian investment fund that they say was raided in a historic plunder. Goldman’s role raising about $6.5 billion for 1MDB has become one of its ugliest scandals in a generation. In November, the U.S. Justice Department revealed that a former partner pleaded guilty to bribery charges, his deputy was arrested and the firm put a top Asia banking executive on leave. The stock is down more than 30 percent in 2018.” Read more.

MEET YOUR NEW BANKING COMMITTEE DEMOCRATS — Via Zach: Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema and Sen. Tina Smith are joining the Democratic side of the Senate Banking Committee, a pair that may effectively cancel each other out when it comes to certain regulatory issues.

The appointment of Sinema was great news for bank lobbyists. The Arizona Democrat has been one of the most industry-friendly members of her party in the House, and she supported the landmark bank deregulation bill that became law in May.

Smith opposed that legislation. Senate Banking ranking member Sherrod Brown, who led the charge against the bill, described the Minnesota Democrat as “pro-consumer” in an interview.

The committee lost two of its more “conservative members” — Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly — “and picked up a progressive and a conservative,” Brown told POLITICO.

“I don’t know Sinema,” he said. “I don’t talk to her. I’ve never seen her in action. I know that she’s not been exactly where I am politically but it’s a big country. I worked with Heidi and Joe.”

TRUMP PUSHES OPPORTUNITY ZONES — Our Brian Faler: “Trump … signed an executive order creating a new group of government officials charged with developing ways of improving the new Opportunity Zone program. The White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council will be led by Ben Carson, head of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and staffed by aides from 13 agencies.

“It will be responsible for finding ways federal agencies can support the initiative, which is designed to funnel money into designated areas for economic development. … The effort has come under criticism, though, because many of the areas were already gentrifying before the initiative began. It would also personally benefit Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner’s family, the Associated Press and Bloomberg News have reported.” Read more.

BUDGET DEFICIT UP TO $305B IN FY2019 — WSJ’s Kate “Coat Thief” Davidson: “The U.S. budget gap widened in the first two months of the fiscal year as tax collections lagged behind federal outlays, which included higher spending for the military and interest on the national debt. The government ran a $305 billion deficit in October and November, compared with $202 billion during the same period a year earlier, the Treasury Department said Thursday.

“Federal outlays climbed 18 percent the first two months of fiscal 2019, which began Oct. 1, and total receipts rose 3 percent. Much of the increase in the deficit was attributable to a shift in the timing of certain payments, the Treasury said. The first day of December fell on a Saturday this year, so payments that would have been made then were moved up to Nov. 30, boosting spending for the period.” Read more.

MNUCHIN “HAPPY,” BUT WILLING TO BE TRUMP’S CHIEF — Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Erik Wasson: “Mnuchin indicated he’d serve as White House chief of staff if President Donald Trump wants but said he’s happy in his current job. ‘I’m happy where I am,’ Mnuchin said Thursday in a brief interview at the Capitol, but added: ‘Whatever the president wants.’

“Trump said earlier Thursday that he’s weighing five candidates to succeed retired General John Kelly as White House chief of staff, after eliminating Representative Mark Meadows, a North Carolina Republican, from consideration.” Read more.

BIGGEST THREAT IN 2019? STILL THE TRADE WAR. — WSJ’s Harriet Torry: “Most economists in a recent survey view a trade war between the U.S. and China as the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019, a sign that forecasters view political uncertainty and the potential for new punitive tariff barriers as greater risks than macroeconomic or financial disruptions.

“Nearly half of economists who responded to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, 47.3 percent, said they viewed the U.S. dispute with Beijing as the No. 1 risk for 2019. Some 20 percent cited financial market disruptions and 12.7 percent pointed to a slowdown in business investment.” Read more.

ECONOMIST SCALE BACK PROJECTIONS ON FED HIKES — WSJ’s Kate Davidson: “Private economists tempered their expectations for the path of interest rates next year in a new Wall Street Journal survey, and many foresee the Federal Reserve cutting rates starting in 2020.

“All but one of the 60 economists polled expect the Fed to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate next week to a range between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent. But they dialed back their median forecast for 2019, calling for two rate increases next year rather than the three they expected when surveyed last month.” Read more.

CAN CRYPTO SURVIVE GOVERNMENT REGULATION? — NYT’s Peter Henning: “The government has finally begun a crackdown on the market for cryptocurrencies and digital tokens. Does this spell the demise of digital currencies and the end of initial coin offerings? …

“But even before the government began its crackdown, there was a big sign that euphoria was evaporating from the market: the decline in cryptocurrency ‘mining’ that generates additional digital tokens. Giga Watt, a digital currency mining operation in Washington state, filed for bankruptcy recently due in large part to the collapse in Bitcoin’s price.” Read more.

** A message from the American Council of Life Insurers: Americans work hard and deserve a secure retirement. Now is the time for Congress to act.

The American Council of Life Insurers is joined by a broad coalition of advocates across industries in calling on Congress to pass comprehensive retirement security legislation this year. Legislation now before the House and Senate would help millions of Americans prepare for a financially secure future by expanding access to retirement plans and making it easier for employers to offer guaranteed lifetime income options. Enhancements to the retirement system are needed now more than ever—10,000 Americans turn age 65 every day, with many living 30 years or more in retirement.

Congress: Support workers, retirees, and business owners by passing retirement security legislation before year’s end. Learn more. **

Source link

from RSSUnify feed https://hashtaghighways.com/2018/12/17/how-to-think-about-the-china-talks/