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Back to the Dance Part Ten: Daeron, Addam and Tumbleton

Thanks as always for reading; here's the masterpost if this is your first encounter!

i. Rocky road to Tumbleton

Having tackled the issues with the war north of the Gold road, we can turn our attention to events south of it between the Battle of the Honeywine and the conclusion of the Second Battle of Tumbleton. In the span of just over four months (January 20th to early June), the fortunes of war see-saw considerably, with the Greens going from near catastrophic defeat to the cusp of victory at First Tumbleton, only for both sides to reach their nadir with the collapse of the Hightower army and Rhaenyra's flight from King's Landing. I previously covered this subject in Part Two of this series and Parts 6, 10, and 11 of the original series, but the importance of this campaign warrants a more comprehensive discussion since it further illustrates the issues with the story, namely the plot ignoring context and the setting in order to function.

The strategic significance of the Battle of the Honeywine warrants discussion as promised at the end of Part Eight, as it represents a massive missed opportunity for the Blacks despite it's full implications being ignored much like those of the Gullet. Lord Bar-Emmon suggests it may be time to bend the knee to Aegon II after word of the battle reaches Dragonstone, and while this is admittedly quite defeatist it's also the closest F&B gets to recognizing the battle's implications. As noted in Part 6 of the original series, the most detailed maps we have of the Reach show the seats of 21 houses, 24 including the individual Shield Isles, that are deemed significant enough to be given locations. Eight of these houses or one third play no part in the Dance: the Tyrells declare neutrality, the Florents and Blackbars are never mentioned despite their proximity to the Honeywine, Cuy and Bulwer never appear despite being vassals of the Hightowers, and Crane, Ashford, and Meadows are never mentioned despite their proximity to the Westerlands and Stormlands. The other two-thirds or 13-16 Reach houses support Rhaenyra save for the Hightowers, Redwynes, and Fossoways, and only the former two are known to have supported Aegon II from the outset. We know of eight other houses thanks to the 'Caltrops,' but only Peake and Roxton are known Greens as of the Battle of the Honeywine.

This puts the true magnitude of the Blacks defeat in stark perspective, as we're told that the Rowan-Caswell host was equal in size to Ormund's and was aided by Costayne and the 'Two Alans' in attacking Ormund from the front and rear. The two weeks between the Gullet and the Honeywine should have been ample time for Daemon and/or the dragonseeds to help deliver a crushing blow in the Reach. Aegon would be stripped of his greatest supporters and left with a single dragon, while Rhaenyra's control of the Reach would completely isolate the Westerlands and expose King's Landing and the Stormlands to attacks from the south and west. Victory at the Honeywine would probably have won Rhaenyra the war then and there, but these implications are never acknowledged; on the other hand, despite Jasper Wylde's suggestion that Aemond "summon Lord Hightower and Prince Daeron from the south," almost a thousand miles of enemy territory stands between the Hightower army and King's Landing. To cover that ground at a reasonable pace with an army that numbered over 20000 after the sack of Bitterbridge, Ormund, Daeron, and the army's leadership would need to effectively plan and develop strategy to guide their movements, but we have little evidence of this.

The first we hear of Ormund and Daeron post-Honeywine is after 'the Fishfeed,' when we're told that they enforced the submission of the Rowans, Oakhearts, and the Shield Islands; by the 'Butcher's Ball' the Hightower army has laid siege to Longtable and sacked Bitterbridge, and between then and the First Battle of Tumbleton the army advances slowly, smashing Black opposition and forcing those who bend the knee to join their forces to the army. F&B gives us no figures for the Hightower army prior to it's crossing at Bitterbridge beyond Ormund's 5000 men which he raised after Rook's Rest; assuming it was 10-15000 strong by the time they turned northwards up the Mander, this still means the army grew by a third or doubled in size within a month at least. Depending on the logistical support available to Ormund when he initially marched north, accommodating such considerable growth would rely on transport infrastructure being up to the task, namely roads and waterways.

What we're told or shown of the army's route has serious issues in this regard: on the one hand, the Maiden Day council specifically mentions the army 'creeping up the Mander' despite our noting in Part Two that riverine transport plays no role in the army's logistics; on the other hand, what little information we have on it's logistics has the army relying on a baggage train and foraging and so dependent only on land transport, whereas it's progress is not exactly road bound. Marching north on the Rose Road should bring the army close to the river only once, at Bitterbridge, as the road otherwise takes them well north or south of the middle and upper Mander; but we also know the army lays siege to Longtable on the southern bank of the Mander and attacks Tumbleton to the north of the road, while Owen Fossoway's presence could well mean that a visit was paid to Cider Hall on the same riverbank as Longtable and Tumbleton. If the army relies on a baggage train, this meandering course is unfeasible without knowledge of the local roads, since diverting off of well-developed roads like the royal roads would risk damage to carts and wagons, and only increase the consumption of supplies on these detours rather than continuing towards their final objective. Halts such as for the siege of Longtable would complicate the army's growth by preventing it from foraging on the move, forcing it to consume it's own supplies. Incorporating more troops and the transport needed for the grain and 'wealth' taken from Longtable would only exacerbate this.

Assuming that local roads are at least adequate and riverine transport is incorporated, there may be no need to use the Rose Road at all: if the army sticks to the south bank of the Mander, it merely exchanges the crossings north of Highgarden and at Bitterbridge on the royal road for crossings of the Cockleswhent and Blueburn near Cider Hall and Longtable, avoiding Bitterbridge entirely and proceeding straight to Tumbleton. This has the advantage of screening one flank with the Mander while allowing for potential communication and cooperation with the Stormlords to the south and east. Whether the Hightower army relies solely on a baggage train and forage as F&B implies, relies more on riverine transport, or uses land transport in addition to a system of magazines as we suggested in Part Two, it cannot operate with the flexibility that the story implies. Changing direction on the march might be possible for a smaller host, but an army in the tens of thousands that is adding more troops as it goes needs a secure, established supply line and/or bases of supply to draw from, especially if the plan is to march on King's Landing directly from Tumbleton which requires the army to march off the royal roads and cross the Blackwater Rush.

The timing of the harvest adds further wrinkles to the march of the Hightower army, as whether it runs April-May or May-June in the Reach the fact remains the Hightower army would have marched two to three months with limited access to forage. Even if water and fodder could be provided for as the army advanced, we noted in Part Two that the army would require at least 20 tons of rations a day at it's peak, and this would need to be sustained through transporting stores or requisitioning from local markets and granaries prior to Bitterbridge at least, which is almost implied by what we see at Longtable but is contradicted by the sack of Bitterbridge. Following the Rose Road makes even less sense in this context since it would take the army through the infamously empty territory between Goldengrove, the Mander, and the Gold Road, whereas the southern bank has Cider Hall, Longtable, and Tumbleton with Ashford and Grassy Vale just to the east. At over 20000 men, a six month supply of grain would be more than 3600 tonnes and require at least 90 40-tonne barges to transport, but even allowing for the army being smaller than this prior to sacking Bitterbridge, the movements of the Hightower and their timing vis-a-vis the harvest give no indication of the planning and preparation that an advance by so large an army would need.

The absence of strategy from the maneuvers and logistics of the Hightower army remains when we look at the lack of involvement from the other Green houses in the campaign. Neither Borros Baratheon nor the Hightower and Redwyne fleets play any part in the fighting while the Lannisters are never mentioned, with Criston Cole even choosing to lead his army south through enemy territory to reach Daeron rather than heading for the Westerlands to aid Johanna Lannister or enter the Reach from the northwest. Borros Baratheon remains inexplicably absent following Luke's death at Storm's End, despite his daughter's betrothal to Aemond, and Unwin Peake's arguing for remaining at Tumbleton until "Lord Baratheon could bring up his power from Storm's End to join them." The mention of Storm's End could imply that Borros had finished his conflict with the Vulture King at this time, and Ser Byron Swann was able to take leave of his father in order to fall to a dragon some time before Maiden Day, but the Hightower army would have been well north of the Marches by that point. Along with communication between Storm's End and Oldtown being possible long before this point, the Vulture King's actions should have been a concern for western Marchers like Unwin Peake and the Tarlys, Ormund's erstwhile foes and the family of his wife Samantha, and would more than warrant cooperation between Borros and the Hightowers.

Detaching troops to assist the Stormlords would reduce the Hightower army's supply demand and is justifiable given Daeron's presence and the absence of any meaningful opposition to it until after Bitterbridge. Eliminating the threat of the Vulture King earlier opens the door for Borros to assist Ormund's advance as we've noted previously that the Stormlords can threaten Tumbleton and Bitterbridge from the east and disrupt attempts by the Blacks to reinforce them. When we consider the issues we've already discussed about the route the army takes, including the Stormlords raises the question of whether Tumbleton even needed to be taken at all? Certainly the garrisons placed there would be a threat and especially once the Riverlords arrived, with or without Hugh and Ulf; then again, Bitterbridge fell before Maiden Day while Tumbleton is less than 200 miles to the north as the crow flies, meaning Ormund averaged only c.6 miles a day despite Daeron's presence, his army's size, and the absence of major settlements on either bank of the upper Mander. That subduing the Blacks in this region could impose such a delay is an argument for coordinating with the Stormlords by itself, but the Hightower army's implied reliance on the Rose road suggests that a better plan would be to leave a force to invest Tumbleton while the rest of the army continued on the royal roads. Communicating and coordinating with Borros could allow the Stormlords to accumulate supplies in the Kingswood to support Ormund's forces, while the Blacks would have to divide their dragonriders against three targets in stead of one (Aemond, Daeron, Tumbleton).

ii. Tumbleton, a Farce in Two Parts

It is clear that the movements of the Hightower army are not governed by strategy, logistics, or the decisions of the characters attached to it but by the priorities of the plot, and this remains the case with the First and Second Battles of Tumbleton. We've noted already that the Blacks failed to confront Daeron and Ormund with their dragons, and Tumbleton's garrison presents similar problems. Gyldan places the number of defenders at 9000 while mentioning that other accounts number them as little as 6000 or as many as 12000; 6000 are said to have opposed Ormund's army outside the walls when the battle began, and it's unlikely that the defenders would have placed their entire strength beyond the walls, so a higher figure is more likely. F&B numbers the Riverlords 6600 strong at the 'Butcher's Ball' excluding the remnants of the 'winter wolves,' so this host alone would likely have numbered just under 7000 when it arrived at Tumbleton if we allow for casualties. If we account for the original forty man garrison, the thousands of Reachers said to have arrived from further south, and the score of lords and knights from the Blackwater Rush whose forces accompanied the Riverlords as they marched south, 10-12000 strong seems a more likely number for Tumbleton's defenders. The town's garrison would have been just under half the size of the Hightower army after crossing the Mander at Bitterbridge, while Ulf and Hugh would give them double the amount the dragons in addition to Vermithor and Silverwing being older and larger than Tessarion.

With a deficit of just 2:1 in manpower at First Tumbleton and a 2:1 advantage in dragons, alongside the town and castle walls the Blacks were in a position of strength and were more than capable of defeating Ormund, especially if they rallied Rhaenyra's supporters north and south of the Mander instead of allowing Ormund and Daeron to subdue them. Armies have faced longer odds than two-to-one and triumphed in our own history, while Ormund and Daeron's defeat is even more likely if given the Hightower army's composition. We know next to nothing about the locations or spheres of influence of Aegon's Reacher supporters: Oldtown, Cider Hall, and the Arbor are the only major seats that support him and only the former two can be counted among the army at Tumbleton. The eight other houses named within the army-Peake, Roxton, Norcross, Ambrose, Rodden, Leygood, Graceford and Risley-have yet to be located on maps, while only Peake and Roxton are known to have backed Aegon as of the Honeywine. Ormund set out with 5000 of his own men along with uncounted numbers of sellswords, free riders, and other 'rabble' after Rook's Rest, but Costayne, the 'Two Alans,' and the desperate fighting at the Honeywine would have taken a heavy toll on these forces. The 'Hour of the Wolf' later tells us that the Hightowers were capable of raising new armies quickly from the streets of Oldtown, but there's little indication this was done post-Honeywine, especially with Ormund, Bryndon, and Hobert being the only senior Hightowers at Tumbleton.

We know that Black and neutral houses were subdued and their forces incorporated into the Hightower army after the Sack of Bitterbridge, and Gyldan tells us that "sellswords, robber knights, and like rabble" flocked to Hugh Hammer from the army's ranks after the Sack of Tumbleton, While F&B does not acknowledge this, the impression we get of the Hightower army is that actual supporters of Aegon II and especially original supporters, represent a minority of the army's actual strength. The bulk of Ormund's troops appear to be mercenaries, neutrals and former Blacks, and 'Johnny-come-latelys' to the Green cause; faced with a Black army half their size at best and supported by two dragons larger than Tessarion, there's every reason to believe these unreliable elements would tip the scales in favour of the Blacks. This has obvious implications for the command crisis after First Tumbleton, since Bourney, Corne, and the Betrayers play a crucial role in the Green victory there while Ulf and Hugh could destabilize the army with their mere presence. The little information we have about the army suggests the bulk of it's troops are there because they were paid or forced to do so, not out of loyalty to Ormund or Aegon: even if Ormund and Bryndon survived or Daeron and Hobert could more effectively assert command, a confrontation with the Betrayers would have been unavoidable.

The most serious problem with the Tumbleton plot is that the Hightower army remains there after the first battle: we've estimated that Tumbleton was sacked on April 28th and F&B mentions that word of Aemond's death and the unrest in King's Landing reached the army, meaning the Second Battle of Tumbleton would have taken place in the first week of June at least. The army thus spends over a month at Tumbleton, and we are told of the problems this creates: men begin deserting soon after the sack to head for 'home and harvest,' while "drunkenness was endemic in the camp...and disease had taken root" according to Grand Maester Munkun, and Hobert Hightower wanted to fall back to the Reach after First Tumbleton "to replenish their fast-dwindling supplies." We've already addressed the issues with the harvest and the army's logistics, though evidence of the latter problem is contradictory: Gyldan tells us the Riverlords "burned or captured almost all their wagons, fodder, and provisions" and captured "three-quarters of their warhorses," which seems to imply that these were still in abundance despite Hobert's concerns about dwindling supplies, while the endemic drunkenness would rely on Tumbleton having considerable stores of alcohol that survived Vermithor and Silverwing's flames, and/or supplies of alcohol still reaching the army.

We noted in Part Two that starvation would have defeated the Hightower army long before Addam arrived, and disease would have the same affect given the state of the town post-sack. I mentioned in Part 11 of the original series that the description of Tumbleton during and after the sack presents contradictory evidence of damage. Firing towns and property was common place in Medieval and Early Modern warfare, though it made sacking a town or city risky since out of control violence could destroy quarters and supplies that the aggressor may have needed. Such acts involved bands of soldiers armed with torches and other incendiary devices, but this is a far cry from subjecting a town to dragon fire which burns much hotter than natural flames (see Part 6 of the Dorne series). Though Vermithor and Silverwing are smaller than Vhagar or even Balerion, they are still larger than any other dragons alive at the time, and their flames should have a devastating affect on the town. This is certainly implied by Gyldan: Tumbleton was "scourged...with whips of flame from one end to the other" and "reduced to ash and embers," while "thousands burned, and as many died by drowning as they tried to swim the river...." Despite this apparent devastation and Tessarion setting the grounds outside the walls aflame, enough of the over 20000 man army is able to enter the town and find unburned townsfolk to rape and murder, and unburned buildings to plunder. Gyldan even tells us there were "shops and homes and septs that had been spared the first time" which were set ablaze by Seasmoke during Addam's attack.

The supposed devastation of Tumbleton has serious implications for Munkun's claim that disease 'took root' prior to the second battle, since this is a severe understatement at best. If we ignore large swathes of Tumbleton's buildings somehow surviving the dragon fire, the fact that the town was torched and the Hightower army seemingly relies on tents and pavilions for quartering poses a major risk. Winter arrives in the Seven Kingdoms as of Maiden Day at the end of a year long autumn, and even if the Reach rarely gets snow in winter we would still expect heavier precipitation along with cooler temperatures and shorter days. The Hightower army's position on the banks of the Mander southwest of it's headwaters risks flooding and the ground becoming waterlogged, but this pales in comparison to the sanitation problems it should face.

We don't know how many casualties the army suffered in the battle and subsequent sack, but we'll assume it's post-battle strength is at least 20000 men. We estimated a 'herd' of over 10000 horses in Part Two for both the cavalry and baggage train, but even a more conservative human-to-animal ratio of 3 or 4:1 still gets us between 5000 and over 7000 horses, and this is without accounting for any pack mules or donkeys and 'meat on the hoof' like cattle or pigs that might accompany the army as sustenance. We can't forget that there are also townsfolk remaining in Tumbleton, again despite the inferno that Ulf and Hugh supposedly unleashed. All of these people and animals must be fed to keep them alive and well, and the cold and damp would only increase ration and fodder consumption; they also need fuel, namely firewood, to prepare meals and keep humans and horses warm. If the town has indeed been burned and ransacked and tents are relied on for quartering by the likes of Daeron, Unwin Peake, and Hobert Hightower, dwindling supplies are the least of their worries. Without proper quarters and stables, cold and hunger will sap the strength of both men and horses rapidly, and disease and malnourishment would create a vicious feedback under such circumstances.

Per Michael Harbinson, a horse produces 20 kg of manure and 20 liters of urine per day (Harbinson, "Horses and Horsemen in Fifteenth-Century Siege Warfare," 206); 5000 horses would thus produce 200 tonnes of solid and liquid waste per day, while over 10000 horses would yield more than 400 tonnes. To remain at Tumbleton for more than a month, the Hightower army would have to dispose of six to twelve thousand tonnes of solid and liquid horse waste assuming there were no deaths, although dead horses would reduce the army's mobility while adding carcass disposal to the list of sanitation tasks. Based on Gyldan's claim that "instead of being given honorable burial...corpses were left to rot, fodder for carrion crows and wild dogs," it appears the army's indiscipline post-sack prevented human cadavers from being disposed of, let alone animal carcasses or human and animal waste. Throw in the wild animals drawn to the carcasses and waste and the fact that 'thousands' drowned in the Mander while fleeing Tumbleton, and disease can join starvation in annihilating the army long before Addam and the Riverlords arrived. The cold and damp would rule out flies spreading disease like dysentery, but the corpses in the Mander combined with excreted waste and leakage from carcasses seeping into the ground would infect local water supplies, while unwashed hands and arms would serve as another vector for transmission.

The second battle has it's own problems in addition to the logistics of how Addam's army got there (see Part Two); I mistakenly suggested that George forgot the local geography in the original analysis-Gyldan tells us the Riverlords 'faded back into the hills' during the night after the battle-but Tumbleton's geography and it's implications are clearly not appreciated by the narrative. Every official map which shows Tumbleton's location places it on the south bank of the Mander, south of or at the feet of the hills where the river begins. This is a major problem based on what F&B tells us, that the Riverlords sent "columns of armored knights...pouring in from north and west," when the Hightower camp is outside the main gates of the town with the town and river to it's north. To attack from north and west during the "black of night" no less, Addam's forces would have to navigate the hills and ford the river unnoticed, divide their already outnumbered army to send one force wide around the town to attack from the west, and coordinate their attacks with Addam and Seasmoke despite the distance separating them. Even if they managed to do so, the northern 'prong' would have to strike from the northeast or northwest; the former places the town and encampment between the two prongs which risks their being defeated in detail if one attack meets heavy resistance, while the latter leaves the center and east of the encampment and the town untouched save for Seasmoke's fires.

That Addam's attack succeeds despite his army consisting of Tully troops and other new levies, especially given the premium the story places on experience, is unserious but hardly surprising in light of our prior analyses. As with the Riverlands and Sunset Sea, the Dance in the Reach between the Battle of the Honeywine and Second Tumbleton completely ignores the setting and broader context for events to unfold as they do. While the great distances, large armies, and high stakes involved should make strategy a necessity for either side, neither the Greens nor the Blacks have any use for it.

iii. Daeron "the Daring"

Now that we've assessed the problems with the southern campaign and the battles of Tumbleton from a broader, military perspective, we can cover the First and Second Battles from the perspective of the story and the writing in general. What were George's intentions for this plot, and why do events play out as they do, assuming we can answer those questions? This means discussing the characters and in particular Prince Daeron Targaryen and Ser Addam Velaryon, starting with the former and how the story portrays him after the First Battle of Tumbleton. F&B places special importance on Daeron's failure to take command during the Sack of Tumbleton, but the claims and reasoning used by Gyldan do not hold up to scrutiny when we consider what we're told and shown of Daeron's character and the reasonable inferences we can draw from them.

According to Gyldan, "the prince was still a boy. The youngest of Queen Alicent's sons, he had grown up in the shadow of his older brothers, and was more used to following commands than giving them." According to the Cambridge Dictionary, to be in the shadow of someone else is to 'receive little attention because someone else is better known or more skillful,' and we might believe this to be Daeron's case as the third son and fourth child without any other information. The other contention is that he was more used to following than giving commands, and we could also assume this based on his youth and his gentle nature without any other information. Combined with the undistinguished character of Hobert Hightower, Daeron's inability ensures the army remains leaderless during and after the sack, but all of this relies on ignoring previous information about Daeron. The idea he lived in his brothers shadows is questionable already given the circumstances of his birth: Daeron was born shortly after Jace in the waning days of 114 AC, and Gyldan tells us that Viseys assigned them to the same wetnurse in the hopes they would be milk brothers and thereby ease the rivalry between Alicent and Rhaenyra. Already at birth, Daeron received as much if not more attention from his father than any of his siblings save Aegon, thanks to Viserys' misguided hope that enforcing closeness between the newborn princes could help heal the rift his actions created.

As Alicent and RHaenyra's sons grew older, Gyldan tells us they attended the same "feasts, balls, and revels, and sometimes trained together in the same yard under the same master-at-arms," though these efforts only deepened the rivalry between them. Viserys' efforts may have failed, but they demonstrate that Daeron was treated no differently than his brothers or Rhaenyra's sons in his education and training, despite being a third son and fourth child whose father actively excluded him and his siblings from their rightful places in the royal succession. Daeron continued to distinguish himself as he got older: when he departs for Oldtown at age 12, Gyldan deems him "the most popular of the queen's sons, as clever as he was courteous, and most comely as well;" his popularity combined with his gentle nature demonstrates that far from living in his brothers shadows, Daeron developed his own personality and character which differed from theirs in positive ways. Although we see later that Daeron is similar to his brothers in possessing a temper, demonstrated when he sacks Bitterbridge and in his dealings with the Two Betrayers, he displays none of their more anti-social tendencies despite being raised alongside them in ostensibly the same environment, and this was to his advantage in Viserys' court.

More significant still is Daeron's bond with Tessarion, which Gyldan tells us was forged by the time he was six, meaning he bonded with her at around the same age as Laenor Velaryon bonded with Seasmoke. He had yet to ride her in 120 AC but by the time of the Dance the Black Council included Tessarion among the other three fully-grown dragons the Greens possessed, suggesting that Daeron was flying Tessarion by that time. His achievement at such a young age not only placed him ahead of Aegon and Helaena, who were dragons riders as of 13 and 11, it placed him head-and-shoulders above Aemond with his lack of a dragon prior to 120 AC, while even his father King Viserys had flown Balerion only once and never claimed another dragon. By any reasonable measure, Daeron was outside the shadow of Aegon and Aemond by the time he left for Oldtown, to become Ormund Hightower's ward and serve as his squire and cupbearer. Daeron's individuality would only have developed further in the three years he spent with his mother's family before the Dance, living almost half a decade and entering his teenage years apart from his siblings in a new environment.

The contention that Daeron lived in his brothers shadows is actively contradicted by the evidence F&B provides us, and this undermines the idea that Daeron was a 'follower' unable to lead. The first issue with Daeron being more used to receiving than giving commands is the fact he and his brothers were not raised as princes in a conventional sense as we might expect. While Alicents sons are educated and trained in a fashion we'd expect of royalty and are waited upon by servants and other royal staff, Rhaenyra's status as de facto heir and the birth of her sons places them well at the bottom of the succession totem pole, and Aegon's children push Aemond and Daeron further downward. All of Viserys' children have to claim living dragons themselves while Rhaenyra's sons are gifted cradle eggs by Viserys, Aemond and Daeron are unmarried when the Dance begins unlike Rhaenyra, Aegon and Helaena, Jace, and Luke, while Daeron is alone among his siblings in being made a ward of another great house with the potential connections that can bring later in life, and even then it's with his mother's family. It's unclear how any of Alicent's sons save for Aegon could have preparation for commanding others, let alone experience doing so. This is significant when both Aegon and Aemond step into leadership roles without great difficulty during the Dance, and even more so when the criticisms made against them are weak at best (see Parts Eight and Nine).

The portrayal of Daeron as a follower has even greater problems in light of his upbringing in Oldtown and service alongside Ormund during the Dance. Aside from living away from his brothers and beside Ormund's children and extended family, Daeron would be surrounded by boys his age and men much older than he who would be far below him in social standing due to his status as a prince, a dragonrider, and blood ties to House Hightower. His education and training will have continued at a similarly high level, especially since Otto and Alicent would have every reason to keep tabs on Daeron and his progress, while his comfortability at court and membership in the royal family would be considerable advantages for forming relationships with the Reacher nobility. While serving as Ormund's cupbearer and squire would have accustomed him to following commands as his uncle's personal aide, these positions were also intended as places of honour historically, guaranteeing one's closeness to and influence upon a king or lord, while squiring for Ormund would obligate Daeron to to train in arms, riding, and general martial pursuits, since a squire's duty was to support and safeguard their master in battle (see Part Three for some mentions of this). As I noted in Part 11 of the original series, Daeron's service as cupbearer and squire for Ormund is effectively an apprenticeship for knighthood and lordship, requiring him to hone his abilities as a warrior and a courtier while developing his bond with Tessarion and his skill as a dragonrider, especially if the Greens expected a succession crisis to follow Viserys' death.

If there's no good reason for Daeron to fare any worse than his brothers as a leader, neither is there any good reason why his upbringing should have made him unable to effectively command, and his actions during the war further expose this problem. The only reason Ormund, Unwin Peake, and the rest of the Hightower army survived the Battle of the Honeywine is because Daeron intervened in the battle, and Rise of the Dragon tells us explicitly that Daeron acted "of his own volition." Daeron is knighted after just turning fifteen and would have been granted lands by Ormund at least in theory, while he would also require a squire of his own. He remains involved in the actions of the Hightower army, as Gyldan credits him alongside Ormund with obtaining the submissions of Goldengrove, Old Oak, and the Shield Isles as of the 'Fish Feed,' while Ormund defers to Daeron at Bitterbridge when the latter chooses to sack the town. This certainly indicates that Daeron can take the initiative, and his role as a scout for Ormund only demonstrates this further; it might be argued that scouting is a natural use for dragons in war, but Daeron during the Dance and Jaehaerys during 'Lord Rogar's War' with the Vulture King are the only instances we're given, while relying on a fifteen year old, newly-made knight for scouting requires Ormund to place enormous trust in Daeron.

As we discussed in Part Three, reconnaissance was often undertaken by lords and kings themselves to ensure the accuracy of information gathered and allow actions to be taken quickly on their basis. Daeron would ideally have familiarity with surveying landscapes thanks to flying Tessarion as well as hunting and recreational riding on horseback. Even with Tessarion's senses guiding her, Daeron's will is still necessary for them to reach his intended destination and he would thus require some skill or ability in navigation and reading the terrain, especially to seek out and find Ormund's army along the Honeywine in time. Gyldan reinforces this when he mentions that Daeron flew ahead of the main column of Ormund's army and "proved invaluable as a scout, warning Lord Ormund of enemy movements." He also tells us "the queen's men would melt away at the first glimpse of the Blue Queen's wings," though Daeron would also need to be able to use the clouds, the lay of the ground, and low-visibility conditions to conceal his presence and allow him to gather intel effectively or to maximize the element of surprise. He would need to provide information in a timely fashion for the army to take advantage, which again requires him to be a capable navigator and flier while also coordinating with Ormund's fellow lords and subordinates and advanced elements of the host like vanguards. All of this would require Daeron to take initiatives himself, argue his case before the army's staff, and earn some measure of trust from those around him as well as Ormund. Daeron's actions in supporting the Hightower army tells us about his character whether or not F&B is aware of this fact, and they completely undermine Gyldan's claims about him.

If what Gyldan tells us about Daeron is contradicted by the story's own evidence and only a little inference from it, it's also the case that F&B quickly moves on from this premise. We're outright told that Daeron commanded Hobert Hightower to intervene in the sack, and that it was Hobert's inability which undermined this effort, while Daeron is part of the war council which came two days after the Sack, when Unwin Peake murdered Owain Bourney. He also offers lordship of Bitterbridge to Ulf though this initiative is frustrated by Ulf and Hugh's grander goals; neither of the Betrayers is eager to help Daeron attack King's Landing, though Gyldan tells us this was Daeron's priority nonetheless. Unwin Peake and other lords in the army seek to declare him Prince of Dragonstone or even King, while Daeron famously confronts Hugh over his assertion that he ought to be king by splashing wine in his face. Although the 'Caltrops' meet without Daeron to discuss getting rid of the Betrayers, none of them are willing to take action without Daeron's support; of all the men that might have delivered Daeron their petition and the warrants for the Betrayers' execution, the 'Catrops' send Lord Owen Fossoway to his tent, the only lord of a major house that we know of save for Hobert Hightower. Daeron agrees quickly to their plans, and the story has to result to contrivance by having two days pass inexplicably so that Addam and the Riverlords can attack with the Hightower army still at Tumbleton. Whether we look to Daeron's character, the logistics of the Hightower army, or it's composition and the loyalties of it's troops, nothing about the Tumbleton command crisis or the Hightower army's lengthy pause makes any kind of sense.

iv. Addam Velaryon: Driftmark's bravest son

Regardless of the evidence, F&B views Daeron’s inaction as crucial to the travails of Tumbleton and the Hightower army, and the same can be said for Addam’s actions and his role in bringing about the Second Battle of Tumbleton. Similar to Daeron, we don't get an abundance of information about Addam's character from F&B, but his role in the story appears more straightforward than Daeron's. According to Gyldan, Addam was "determined to prove that not all bastards need be turncloaks" after his flight from King's Landing and raised an army in the Riverlands to retake Tumbleton from the Betrayers, "whose treason had stained him." His nearly 4000-strong army included the previously neutral Tullys, with the rest drawn from forces "whose lords were loyal to the queen." Gyldan credits him with saving King's Landing "from the queen's foes" at the cost of his own life, and Alyn Velaryon interred his bones at Hull with a tombstone inscribed only with the word "Loyal." At least this is what F&B tells us about the motivations of Alyn and his allies; when we analyze the story more closely, I believe a different picture emerges. First we need to get a sense of Addam's character based on the available information, if we even hope to grasp his motivations.

So who was Addam of Hull? We certainly have information about his childhood and upbringing, though I want to address this for other reasons related to his character. I've seen claims made in the fandom on Tumblr and X which disagree with HOTD S2's portrayal of Corlys and Addam and Alyn's upbringing, suggesting both were made out to be worse than they were in F&B. Far be it from me to run interference for the show after the mess it made of S2, but this is a case where the show was both faithful to the books and managed to do them one better. Addam was 15 at the time of the Red Sowing in late 129 AC, meaning his birth in 114 was a few weeks or months before Jace and Daeron, who were born in the waning days of that year. Alyn's birth in 115 AC had serious consequences for the boys and their mother, Marilda of Hull: the daughter of a shipyard owner, she was 16 and nearly 18 when she gave birth to her sons, though she never identified their father prior to the Sowing. Addam and Alyn were presented to Rhaenyra and Jace in 129 as Laenor's bastards, but between Mushroom's account and the choices of HOTD it seems to have been widely suspected that Corlys was their true father. Gyldan tells us their parentage was still a matter of debate long after the Dance, but finds Mushroom's suggestion that Corlys was the father more credible.

The picture F&B paints of Corlys as a father is not remotely positive: he twice impregnates a young woman a third his age, giving her bastard boys with Velaryon features at the same time as Jace and Luke are born with none of Laenor and Rhaenyra's looks. This would have painted a massive target on the backs of Marilda and her boys, except Corlys abandons them soon after Alyn's birth according to Mushroom, ceasing his "shipyard trysts" and instructing Marilda to "keep her boys far from court" despite Hull being right next door to Driftmark. It seems the only family the boys had was Marilda and her father, the latter passing away when Addam was ten and Alyn was nine, and there's not the slightest hint of financial aid for Marilda. Addam and Alyn went to sea as ship's boys before they were 8 while Marilda sold her father's yards upon his death in 124 AC to procure a merchant cog, the Mouse; although Marilda owned a fleet of seven ships by 130 AC, the fact she sold the yards the moment her father died and the funds she earned sufficed for only a single ship suggests her family's wealth was not great.

Wealth did not equal status in feudal society, the latter being determined by land ownership, military service to one's liege, and a noble bloodline. Neither Marilda's father nor her sons would be considered "gentlemen" in the Medieval English sense, as that status depended on an individual's means sparing them from manual labour; her grandfather was a shipwright and would have certainly been involved in the building and repairing of ships in his own yards, while Addam and Alyn have worked on ships since a young age. By contrast, the Velaryons already had a storied, noble lineage from Valyria before they settled on Driftmark, and their lands, wealth, and centuries long service to House Targaryen ensured they remained nobility in Westeros. Gyldan stresses that Corlys was a man apart from his forebears, that it was "traditional for the sons of the seahorse to be given a taste of a seafarer's life when young" and Corlys took to this life like no one before, though his first voyage to Pentos was made with an uncle. Corlys had the luxury to embrace a life at sea, whereas Addam and Alyn had little choice in the matter and apparently lacked the family support network Corlys enjoyed. Mushroom explicitly mentions this class divide when he claims the boys were hidden by Corlys to avoid Rhaenys' anger, should she discover he'd fathered bastards on a girl half her age "and a shipwright's daughter besides."

Marilda's merchant profession and subsequent growth of her fleet suggests that their living might not have been as hand-to-mouth as Alyn's monologue implies at the end of HOTD S2, but living life at sea and between ports would not have been comfortable. Alongside storms and shipwrecking, piracy, and damaged or spoiled cargo, the War in the Stepstones which Daemon and Corlys abandoned the year Alyn was born would still create problems for shipping in the Narrow, Summer, and Sunset Seas despite F&B forgetting about it until after the Dance. Make no mistake, Corlys abandoned Addam, Alyn, and Marilda, and they survived and thrived through their own skill, ability, and luck, not the 'Sea Snake's' charity. This upbringing gives us perspective on his later actions in the Dance and allows us to make some reasonable inferences about Addam's character. Family would obviously be important to Addam and Alyn, having no father and only their mother, grandfather, and each other to rely on in an uncertain world. This absolutely tracks with Addam's actions, in particular when he uses Seasmoke to help Alyn attempt to claim Sheepstealer, driving the dragon away when it proves hostile and using his own cloak to douse the flames that struck Alyn, saving his life.

They would have to grow up fast, cliché as that may sound, due to serving a ship's boys and therefore being separated from their mother and grandfather for long periods of time, all the while enduring the dangers of life at sea as mere children. They would have earned wages which they would likely have to negotiate from paymasters and captains, unlike Corlys; while Alyn is later said to be a poor haggler and bad with money, despite both boys having later served on their mother's merchant ships, Addam was a capable speaker and Gyldan describes him as "relentless, determined, and glib of tongue" in his efforts to raise an army in the Riverlands. Although Alyn is the only brother who gets to demonstrate his prowess as a seafarer, both of them would have been competent sailors at the very least after serving on ships from a young age, which Gyldan confirms by noting the brothers had "sea salt in their blood." Both boys were ambitious enough to dare to claim a dragon, although Seasmoke had already known riders and Addam used him to assist Alyn's efforts, while Marilda presents them to Rhaenyra and Corlys claims them as his grandsons. We can confidently say that Addam was ambitious, capable, and well-spoken, and that he cared strongly for his family having made it through a difficult childhood in one piece alongside his mother and brother.

With this background in mind, we have to ask what relevance it has to Addam's actions before and during the Second Battle of Tumbleton. Gyldan determines Addam's motives quite confidently but offers us no sources beyond his own assertions, and contradicts himself in the process. This isn't merely an argument for argument's sake: when he addresses the tales of Addam visiting the Isle of Faces to consult with the Green Men, Gyldan claims "the scholar must confine himself to known fact," despite beginning the same paragraph with his own unsourced assertion that Addam sought to prove his loyalty and punish the betrayers. Ostensibly this is a 'known fact' despite Addam’s death in battle, but none of his three sources or any of his other quotes actually address the battle or Addam's actions in any detail. Eustace is never consulted, Mushroom is introduced after the battle when Hobert and Ulf are poisoned, and Munkun is referenced but never quoted in reference to disease in the Hightower camp, the tent fire theory of Daeron's death, and Benjicot Blackwood's account of Tessarion diving into Vermithor and Seasmoke's battle. Even Elmo Tully's comment that "'A dragon in one's courtyard does wonders to resolve one's doubts" is something he is "reported to have said" per Gyldan.

So despite Addam's motivations being 'known fact,' and the army he raised having been brought together by persuading lords and ladies to support him, F&B gives us no testimonies about these interactions or any discussions of the battle and arguments about it between our three sources, let alone a quote from or about Addam Velaryon himself. Gyldan refers to an interview between Maester Munkun and Benjicot Blackwood, who led the Blackwoods in the battle and carried Addam's broken corpse from the field afterwards, yet the narrative of the battle itself and our coverage of Addam derives entirely from Gyldan? This alone should raise eyebrows, but the substance of Addam's purported motivations also has numerous problems. To recap, Gyldan claims Addam sought to prove his loyalty to Rhaenyra by punishing the Betrayers who had stained his honour, and to prove that a bastard need not be a turncloak, but this ignores multiple factors. Not only was Addam knighted and presumably granted lands by Rhaenyra for claiming Seasmoke, she legitimized him as Laenor's son and Corlys made him heir to Driftmark. Addam is no longer a bastard, he is now heir to one of the foremost noble houses of the Seven Kingdoms, and he is a dragonrider and knight; more importantly, Rhaenyra knighted Ulf and Hugh but gave them lands on Driftmark rather than marriages to Rosby and Stokeworth, so Addam would be their liege lord in a world where there was no betrayal. There's no reason for Addam to feel any sort of kinship or connection to these men that would spur him to feel slighted by their actions.

The other factor Gyldan ignores, once again contradicting himself, is that Ulf and Hugh's actions made Rhaenyra suspicious of Addam, but it was Nettles’ alleged actions that drove Rhaenyra to act. Addam would have been aware of the betrayal prior to Rhaenyra meeting her council, since she received the news on the Iron Throne and ordered the city gates to be sealed; it's doubtful he was unaware of Nettles' allegations when he was forewarned and fled, especially if it was Corlys or one of his associates that warned him. If Addam heads to Maidenpool he can get there before Rhaenyra's raven and either enlist Daemon to apprehend Nettles or seek the aid of one or both riders for his predicament. Considering that his flight would put his grandfather and brother in a difficult position, targeting Nettles would be the easier and swiftest option compared to what he chooses. In going after Ulf and Hugh, Addam must fly much farther into the Riverlands and risk encountering Aemond or Daemon, the latter of whose loyalties he could assume lay with Rhaenyra; enlist the aid of the pro-Rhaenyra Riverlords to fight for him, an accused traitor to their queen; all to attack a walled town occupied by the largest army seen in the Dance and three dragonriders, two of whom have mounts far larger than his own. Time is also against him in this case: while almost a month would have passed between Addam's flight and Second Tumbleton, it's unlikely he would have had information about the Hightower army's halt early on, meaning his efforts risk being in vain if the Betrayers marched on King's Landing at any time and killed Rhaenyra.

Gyldan's claims about Addam's motives are questionable at best, but it might still be argued that loyalty to Rhaenyra motivated the Riverlords and thus confirms his motivations as known fact. We are told that the Blackwoods, Pipers, Smallwoods, Darrys, Deddings, and Vances of Wayfarer's Rest contributed forces, while Sabitha Frey and her Vypren family also contributed despite going unmentioned previously. We can perhaps believe theirs and Addam's loyalty to Rhaenyra brought them to Tumbleton, but Gyldan reminds us that many of these houses had seen heavy fighting already and could only send very young or very old levies, whereas the neutral Tullys would have provided more and better troops. The role of the Tullys in the battle is uncertain: I noted in Part 11 of the original series that F&B and The Princess and the Queen never mention them during the actual battle, whereas TWOIAF credits Elmo with leading the Riverlords at Second Tumbleton, and F&B later has Mushroom attribute Grover Tully's death in 131 AC to apoplexy due to his house fighting for Rhaenyra. When Aegon II returns and raises the ire of Rhaenyra's former allies by targeting the Crownlands, Gyldan tells us Elmo Tully "called the lords of the Trident to war once more," implying he helped raise the army and led it despite the former being credited to Addam.

Assuming the Tullys did fight at Tumbleton under Lord Elmo, the reasons given for this are questionable compared to what we're told about Elmo and why he kept Riverrun neutral. Elmo Tully defied Grover's wishes in 129 AC and kept House Tully neutral rather than supporting Aegon II, justifying himself on the grounds that both sides have dragons and Riverrun had no defense against them, declaring with regards to Grover that "I would sooner the rest of us did not die with him." Gyldan calls Elmo a "reluctant warrior" and later tells us "the undistinguished history of House Tully had only been exacerbated by the character of its last two lords," comparing Grover and Elmo unfavourably to Kermit and Oscar. Elmo is portrayed as cautious and pragmatic compared to Grover, who loudly and proudly stands by his principals even at the risk of endangering his own house and family, and this poses a problem for Gyldan's account of Second Tumbleton. Although Addam’s words are credited with winning over lords and houses, we're led to believe that Elmo was won over by Seasmoke landing on the grounds of Riverrun, hence his reported comment about dragons in courtyards.

Addam winning over the Tullys is effectively attributed to coercion rather than persuasion and diplomacy, flying in the face of what we just observed about Elmo Tully's character and reasoning. We first need to recognize that any veiled threat made with Seasmoke is counterproductive, since harming the Tullys would not only hamper Addam's efforts to raise the other Riverlords, but would deprive him of a large number of fresh troops for his attack. Grover's sons courted Rhaenyra during her progress through the Riverlands in 112 AC, but Elmo is his grandson; Elmo’s father courting Rhaenyra clearly did not affect his decision to remain neutral in 129, despite the memory of her progress and the oaths sworn to her motivating others to support her claim. Supporting Addam also flies in the face of his goal of avoiding destruction through dragon fire: as of First Tumbleton, the Greens have four dragons at their disposal of which three are the largest alive (Vhagar, Vermithor, and Silverwing); without Nettles and Addam, Rhaenyra has three dragons at best in Caraxes, Syrax, and Tyraxes, though the latter two have not seen combat while the former's status is unknown and may be tied down by Aemond and Vhagar anyway.

Elmo has no good reason to fear Seasmoke or choose loyalty to Rhaenyra, while his case for remaining neutral is only more relevant after First Tumbleton. Aemond has taken no action against Riverrun during his campaign in the Riverlands and the Greens are de facto leaderless anyways without Aegon II or the Green Council, whereas joining forces with Addam places Riverrun at risk of attack from Aemond while Elmo leads his forces against a far larger army supported by three dragons, with just a single dragon to support him. Leaving aside Rhaenyra's own failures as Queen and the poor decisions of the Black Council, such as leaving the Riverlands to face Aemond and the Green armies alone, there's simply no way that Addam could "resolve" Elmo's doubts and spur him to act completely out of character and in defiance of his own reasoning for the sake of Addam's alleged objectives. Punishing Ulf and Hugh to clear his own name is a personal objective for Addam, while proving one's loyalty to Rhaenyra is irrelevant to Elmo. Even considering the problems we've talked about regarding the writing of the Dance, the fact remains that Addam and Elmo's alleged motivations are derived solely from Gyldan's assertions and have no foundation in the information provided by the text.

Not only are Addam and Elmo's motivations given little to no support by F&B, but the actions of the Riverlords hardly suggest that they were driven by diehard loyalty to Rhaenyra. Second Tumbleton officially ends when the Riverlords depart the field and 'fade back into the hills,' heading northwards to return to their lands. Gyldan notes that they lacked the siege equipment to take Tumbleton from the remnants of the Hightower army, although the latter should have had some equipment with them while the Riverlords could have built or improvised their own rams and trebuchets as was often done by Medieval armies (see Part Three). The greater issue is that despite their alleged loyalty to Rhaenyra, the army returned to the Riverlands rather than entering the Crownlands to assess the situation in King's Landing and/or join up with Rhaenyra's supporters. If word of the chaos in King's Landing could reach the Hightower army after Aemond's death, it should have reached the Riverlands and Addam's army as it marched south. Without knowing of Rhaenyra's flight they would still know that their queen was in danger, while reaching out to the houses of the Crownlands would allow them to gather intel about the capital and would have made them aware of Rhaenyra's flight, as Rhaenyra would have reached Duskendale by the first week of June and was still there in October.

Even without a dragon and siege equipment, the Riverlords wouldn't need these to aid their queen, especially since they suffered less than a hundred casualties in the battle while capturing horses and supplies from the Hightower army, and could have gathered reinforcements from among the Crownlanders. If they were truly loyal to their queen and marched to Tumbleton to demonstrate this, 'calling it quits' the moment the battle was done and leaving King's Landing in chaos was a funny way of showing it, especially since Borros Baratheon secures the capital with only a slightly larger army (4600 vs c.4000). Their actions in 131 AC are even more revealing: when Elmo calls his banners to march on King's Landing, we're told he did so to avoid the fates of Rosby, Stokeworth, and Duskendale after Borros Baratheon stormed their holdfasts, while TWOIAF tells us that Aegon II's enemies "fought as much out of fear of his reprisals as they did for Rhaenyra." Although Mushroom suggests that Grover Tully died of apoplexy after learning of Elmo's actions at Tumbleton, Elmo was only Lord of Riverrun for 49 days before dying of sickness on the march, meaning Grover Tully would have lived for more than half a year after the Second Battle of Tumbleton based on our estimates. Mushroom's story is definitely a fabrication, but it's significant that nothing more is said about Grover's response to Elmo's decisions, even though it would have been hard to conceal a mobilization from even a bed ridden Grover Tully, who was still the legal Lord Paramount of the Riverlands.

When we actually scrutinize Addam's character and the actions of his allies before and after the Second Battle of Tumbleton, Gyldan's claims about their motivations have little to no foundation. We're left with the puzzling scenario of a lone, fugitive dragonrider rallying a neutral lord and his erstwhile subjects to commit thousands of soldiers to fight against a numerically superior foe in both men and dragons, for seemingly no reason. This could be another of F&B's many writing gaffes and I certainly made that assumption in the original analysis, but this is where the re-analysis and especially our analysis of Alys, Nettles, and the Battle Above the Gods Eye has been extremely helpful. Compared to the Gods Eye, the problem of sources for Second Tumbleton should be the exact opposite: we know Maester Munkun interviewed Benjicot Blackwood and spoke with him about the battle, and there are so many other significant figures in the Dance who were there and survived such as Unwin Peake, Sharis Footly, and Sabitha Frey, along with thousands of soldiers on either side and some remaining townsfolk of Tumbleton. The fact we get no quotes from any of these potential witnesses about the events of the battle itself, and no comparisons of accounts between Gyldan's three main sources, is too significant to be mere coincidence.

Much like the Gods Eye, key or potential witnesses to the event did not survive or left no account: Aemond died, Daemon definitely died, and Alys and Nettles left no testimony, while Addam, Daeron, the two Betrayers, Hobert Hightower, Elmo Tully, and most of the 'Caltrops' along with a few of the Riverlords died in the battle or sometime after it. Similar to F&B's portrayal of the Battle Above the Gods Eye, I believe our account of Addam's flight and subsequent actions at Tumbleton is the result of piecing together undeniable facts with details from multiple accounts, so that historians, song writers, and poets could offer a coherent narrative. The facts that could be agreed upon universally were that Addam fled the capital due to the fallout from the Sack of Tumbleton and Nettles' affair, although Addam's attack on Tumbleton led to the former being emphasized over the latter; that he raised a host from the Riverlords who were supporters of Rhaenyra and succeeded in getting the Tullys to join the fray; that he attacked Tumbleton and was instrumental in defeating the Betrayers and Daeron's army; and that Alyn Velaryon built a tomb for his brother's bones with an inscription extolling his loyalty. Since he fled due to Rhaenyra’s charges of treason and raised an army of her supporters to defeat those who had betrayed her, along with Addam, Ulf, and Hugh all being bastards as of the Red Sowing and erstwhile comrades-in-arms, it makes sense that writers seeking to fill in the blanks would portray Addam's motivations as they did.

With all that being said, the question remains as to what Addam's actual motivations may have been, assuming there’s even an answer. I believe there is one to be found if we carefully analyze the evidence we have and consider potential parallels with other events and characters in ASOIAF, since George loves to do this in his writing and we have evidence of it via Larys, Alys, and Nettles (see Parts Six and Nine). One clue as to Addam's motivations comes from the aftermath of the Gullet: Gyldan tells us that Addam met with Corlys Velaryon but that "what they spoke to each other even Mushroom does not say." F&B shows us the dragonseeds' reactions to the battle and they all tell us something about their character and trajectories in the story: according to Mushroom, Ulf and Hugh meet in a tavern and drink to the slaughter, with Hugh celebrating their knighthoods while Ulf hopes for a lordship, offering a glimpse of their crudeness and ambition while the tavern calls to mind locales like the 'Bloody Caltrop' and 'Bawdy Badger' in Tumbleton. Nettles' reaction is the exact opposite: her cheeks are streaked with tears after returning from battle, presaging her tearful flight from Maidenpool and also offering a potential glimpse of her personality, taking no joy or pleasure in death and destruction despite fighting bravely alongside the other dragonseeds in defense of Driftmark, her home.

Addam seeks out Corlys after the battle and their private conversation is not recorded by Mushroom, but we need to remember that Mushroom's account of Addam and Alyn asserts that Corlys is their father, and even Gyldan admits that Mushroom's theory is credible. Although Addam was made heir to Driftmark before the Battle of the Gullet, ostensibly forgetting that Jace and Joffrey are alive and Joffrey should be the heir to Driftmark after Luke's death, Jace's death at the Gullet makes Joffrey the heir to the Iron Throne and ensures that Addam is the indisputable heir to the Driftwood Throne. If Mushroom already knew that Addam was Corlys' son, I doubt he felt any need to pry into their private conversation or to relay its contents that should have been obvious to anyone paying attention, since Gyldan also suspects that Addam and Alyn's parentage was an open secret in Rhaenyra's court. With Jace's death solidifying Addam's status as Corlys' heir, the end of his first battle would seem as good a time as any to confront his 'grandfather' about his true parentage if he already had suspicions, or for Corlys to reveal the truth if Addam merely sought to speak with his grandfather.

As with Nettles and the Betrayers, recognizing this gives us a glimpse into Addam's character and his trajectory in the story, since we noted in Part Nine that TWOIAF credits Corlys with warning Addam and allowing him to escape arrest while F&B implies this was the case. Although Mysaria warning Addam could still be possible, if we assume that Corlys at least sent someone to tip off Addam then the lack of information about their conversation on Driftmark would parallel Corlys' silence when confronted by Luthor Largent's charges of treason against him, resigning himself to captivity in the dungeons. Accepting that Addam knew Corlys was his true father gives him a motivation for his actions: his father risked his life to save him from torture and death, allowing him to escape but guaranteeing that Corlys may meet the same fate. Daemon and Nettles are occupied by Aemond and the former might choose Rhaenyra over Nettles, so acting immediately against Rhaenyra risks pitting him against Syrax, Tyraxes, and possibly Caraxes, while the Velaryon forces would have to contend with the Gold Cloaks, Rhaenyra's sworn swords and Dragonstone men, Manderly troops, and in theory some Valemen and 'Knights Inquisitors.' After all of that, the Betrayers and the Hightower army can still march on King's Landing and annihilate them all, so the situation calls for Addam to not only save his father's life but the lives of countless others from the looming threat of Ulf and Hugh.

That Addam was motivated by concern for the lives of others as opposed to his own reputation, both as a bastard and in the eyes of his queen, is supported by the text. Gyldan claims the Riverlords "knew much and more of the horrors that had befallen Tumbleton," implying that fear of the Betrayers and concern for the destruction they wrought was also a motivator, and not purely diehard loyalty to Rhaenyra. Ulf and Hugh's actions and anything Addam could tell the Riverlords about their character would also help explain Elmo Tully's intervention, as he chose neutrality to avoid the destruction of his home, lands, and people by dragon fire. Aegon II and Rhaenyra would leave Riverrun alone if it was no threat to either, and even Aemond makes no attacks on the Tullys, but the treachery and cruelty of the Betrayers makes them a threat to the Tullys regardless of their neutrality. When Vermithor rampages after Hugh's death and Addam intervenes to fight the larger dragon, Gyldan reiterates that Addam sought "to prove his loyalty by destroying the Two Betrayers and their dragons," but because of Vermithor's attacks on the Riverlords "he must have felt duty bound to protect them…." While Addam's loyalty to Rhaenyra is re-emphasized, Gyldan admits that concern for the lives of others motivated Addam in the moment without recognizing the implications of these words.

When Vermithor begins rampaging, the immediate threat to Addam is Tessarion, who aside from attacking Seasmoke is also the dragon of Rhaenyra's brother and one of her rival claimants, Daeron. Tessarion is equal to Seasmoke in size and is riderless, but despite her symbolic significance to Rhaenyra's cause and the far greater danger Vermithor poses to Addam and Seasmoke, Addam chooses the lives of others over his own and his supposed loyalty to Rhaenyra. Another crucial factor to keep in mind through all of this is that Ser Addam Velaryon is a knight; we get some of the vows from The Hedge Knight:

In the name of the Warrior I charge you to be brave. In the name of the Father I charge you to be just. In the name of the Mother I charge you to defend the young and innocent. In the name of the Maid I charge you to protect all women….

while Gendry's knighting ceremony in Arya VII of ASOS gives us a less formal but still useful account:

Gendry, do you swear before the eyes of gods and men to defend those who cannot defend themselves, to protect all women and children, to obey your captains, your liege lord, and your king, to fight bravely when needed and do such other tasks as are laid upon you, however hard or humble or dangerous they may be?

The charges against Addam and his unwillingness to submit to Rhaenyra's authority and answer them would count against his loyalty to his monarch, but raising an army to rescue his father and protect King's Landing and the realm from the Betrayers are absolutely in keeping with his knightly vows and duties.

Admittedly this theory of Addam's actual motivations relies on speculation and reading against the grain, but it has strong parallels with the actions of another character in ASOIAF. For your consideration, this is Addam's situation after fleeing King's Landing: a paranoid, unpopular monarch wants to kill his father, said monarch's enemies have sacked Tumbleton and threaten to do so to King's Landing, with the specter of dragon fire threatening the capital, while Addam chooses his father's life and the lives of countless others over his loyalty to said monarch and his own honour. If that sounds eerily familiar, it should: the scenarios aren't one-to-one comparisons of course, but Addam Velaryon's dilemma post-the Sack of Tumbleton parallels that of Jaime Lannister during the Sack of King's Landing. Much like Addam, Jaime remains in King's Landing with the other six kingsguard split between the Trident and the Tower of Joy, paralleling Daemon and Nettles hunting Aemond while Ulf and Hugh reinforce Tumbleton. Aerys treats Jaime as a glorified hostage and orders him to kill Tywin during the Sack, much as Addam's life is threatened by Rhaenyra who also jails Corlys and plans to execute him for aiding Addam's escape. The Hightower and Lannister armies sack Tumbleton and King's Landing respectively, with Ulf and Hugh destroying the former with dragon fire while the latter is threatened with destruction by wildfire, with Aerys hoping to be reborn a dragon from the ashes.

Jaime is 16-17 when he's faced with his dilemma, whereas Addam was not yet 16 in 130 AC, but both of these young knights essentially make the same choice. Jaime chooses his father's life and the people of King's Landing over his personal honour and loyalty to Aerys, killing him and his pyromancers and thus sparing the city. Addam likewise chooses the lives of others and his father over his own reputation and loyalty to Rhaenyra, raising an army to defeat the Betrayers and perhaps even rescue his father, to spare Corlys and the realm as a whole from the cruelties of Ulf and Hugh. One might argue that Jaime's negative treatment versus Addam's positive remembrance undermines this comparison, but they are more similar than different. Jaime chooses the lives of others over his honour and duty to his king but never reveals his motivations, choosing instead to bear the insults and disdain of Westerosi society out of his own disillusionment with knighthood, embracing the title and persona of "Kingslayer." Jaime's negative reception reinforces the Seven Kingdom's harmful ideals of honour and loyalty, which value personal image and duty to one's superiors over doing what is morally right, and our analysis of Addam's motives shows the same process at work in how he is remembered.

Instead of being remembered as a loyal son who sought to save his father, and a true knight who sought to protect the lives of others in keeping with his duty, the Addam shown to us by F&B acts to prove his loyalty to an unjust queen who wants him dead along with his father, and salvages his own honour by punishing two other bastards in the hopes of being seen as a 'good' bastard, an exception to the rule that bastards are untrustworthy and disloyal by their very nature. Addam's portrayal in the account of the Second Battle of Tumbleton not only erases his true motivations, it uses him to uphold the unjust social norms of the Seven Kingdoms: Nettles, Ulf, and Hugh affirm the stigma against bastards while Addam is the exception that proves the rule, with personal honour and unswerving loyalty to one's ruler being more important than the lives of others. This narrative's creation was made possible by Addam's death and the deaths of many of his allies: Elmo dies on the march in 131 AC, Stanton Piper and Lyonel Deddings are killed by Vermithor, while the rest of the Riverlords would have been unlikely to tell the truth if they knew it because of the backlash it would generate, especially if Addam planned to march on King's Landing and rescue Corlys after defeating the Betrayers. That could explain both the Riverlords' silence about Addam and their warm interactions with Corlys during the 'False Dawn.'

v. A true 'Dance of Dragons'

Flipping the script on Addam's motivations for the Second Battle of Tumbleton has obvious implications for the other purple-eyed elephant in the room: if Addam's actions were not as they appear in F&B, what does this mean for Daeron? Answering that question means delving into the circumstances of the battle itself, though first we need to establish a timeline. Gyldan tells us Addam attacked Tumbleton in "the black of night," while Tessarion died at sunset on what was presumably the next day after attempting to fly in the late afternoon. The fighting was over by dusk the same day and the Riverlords departed at moonrise, with the Hightower army finding them gone "the morning after the battle" while Hobert Hightower and Ulf the White died of poison the day after. The full drama of the battle thus unfolded over three or four days, with the clashes between dragons taking place at night during the very beginning of the battle; we know there were clouds in the sky which Seasmoke and Tessarion flew through and the 'black' descriptor suggests limited moon and starlight, all of which is a problem for the question of what observers may or may not have seen.

Gyldan would have us believe that Daeron died at the outset of the battle, and gives us three differing accounts to that effect:

Three conflicting accounts exist as to the manner of death of Prince Daeron Targaryen. The best known claims that the prince stumbled from his pavilion with his night clothes afire, only to be cut down by the Myrish sellsword Black Trombo, who smashed his face in with a swing of his spiked morningstar. This version was the one preferred by Black Trombo, who told it far and wide. The second version is more or less the same, save that the prince was killed with a sword, not a morningstar, and his slayer was not Black Trombo, but some unknown man-at-arms who like as not did not even realize who he had killed. In the third alternative, the brave boy known as Daeron the Daring did not even make it out at all, but died when his burning pavilion collapsed upon him. (F&B, pg. 531)

Maester Munkun preferred the third version, as does Gyldan, but we’re given no reason for this; revealingly, Gyldan leaves a footnote stating that "whatever the manner of his death," Daeron died at Second Tumbleton and "the feigned princes who appeared during the reign of Aegon III, using his name, have been conclusively shown to be imposters." So we're given three possible causes of death, one of which is favoured for no particular reason, only to have Gyldan suggest that the 'False Daerons' that arose after Aegon III's regency were all proven impostors despite the accounts of Daeron's death seemingly being unsatisfactory. Not only are they unsatisfactory explanations, but they are completely unfeasible and require us to find a different explanation.

The first two accounts are easy to dismiss thanks to the location of Daeron's pavilion: Gyldan tells us that Vermithor, Silverwing, and Tessarion were left unchained, that the former two slept in the fields south of the encampment, and that Tessarion slept 'not one hundred yards' from Daeron's pavilion in his camp west of the town. This is important considering the Riverlords attacked from the north and west, meaning Daeron's camp should have been among the first sites attacked; we also know that Silverwing and especially Vermithor were roused when Riverlord troops attacked them, but we have no indication of any attacks on Tessarion despite her close proximity to one of the two prongs of Addam's army. Neither Trombo nor the unknown assailant could have reached Daeron's pavilion without they themselves or other men running into Tessarion; further problems stem from the fact the unknown assailant should have recognized Daeron's tent at least, and his hair and eyes should have been a give away as only his night clothes are said to be on fire. Trombo striking Daeron in the face with his morningstar is too convenient a death since he could claim any faceless corpse as Daeron's, while in both accounts it should have been possible to present a head, ring hand, or some other body part or personal effects from the tent as proof of Daeron's death, but this was clearly not done.

The tent theory is favoured by Gyldan, Munkun, and the fandom at large, but it has glaring flaws. Seasmoke's fires consumed not just Daeron's tent but those of Hobert Hightower and Unwin Peake as well, yet both men were still alive the morning after the Riverlords departed; Hobert was 60 years old in 130 AC and "as stout as he was slow" according to Gyldan’s quote, so we have to ask ourselves how he managed to survive his tent catching fire when the Hightower army was ostensibly abed when the attack began, while Daeron was much younger and in better health but somehow failed to escape.The fire itself is another issue, since Seasmoke's flames would not have the intensity of those of a larger dragon: Tessarion was the same size, and her fires burned Bitterbridge only by gradually spreading through the buildings, while Daeron's body would not be exposed directly to Seasmoke's breathe. Since the tent supposedly collapsed on top of him, his body should have been identifiable even if just by its location in his pavilion alongside any belongings or personal effects that could be found around it. The Riverlords remained at Tumbleton for almost a day and departed with Addam's corpse, while the Hightower army remained there longer and Unwin Peake was able to obtain the sword Orphan-Maker before departing. If Daeron died in his tent, either side should have had the opportunity to locate his remains, but this was clearly not the case.

None of the accounts of Daeron's death have any validity, as demonstrated by the later appearance of the 'False Daerons': there should have been a body left behind in all three accounts and that alone should have been sufficient to expose the impostors if not prevent them from manifesting entirely. The fact none of this is the case tells us that Daeron’s body was not where it was expected to be, which brings us to the next mystery surrounding Daeron and the Second Battle of Tumbleton: Tessarion. An interesting fact about the second battle is that we're shown a broad spectrum of dragon behaviour throughout: we have a rider-dragon team in Addam and Seasmoke which functions pretty much as we'd expect; we have the polar opposite in Vermithor, whose rider we know was killed at the outset of the battle, and basically goes berserk during the battle and attacks anything he sees. In the middle of the spectrum we have Silverwing, who circles the skies over the battle in a kind of holding pattern after being attacked by the Riverlords; this was due to Ulf sleeping in a tavern under an alcohol-induced 'coma,' and she departs Tumbleton soon after Ulf's death when attempts to claim her fail. We thus have a dragon following the will of its rider, a dragon with a dead rider pursuing its own will, and a riderless dragon whose rider is incapacitated and which does not intervene.

Then there's Tessarion: Gyldan claims that "alone of the four dragons on the field that day, Seasmoke had a rider," and we're meant to believe that Daeron had already died in his camp, but nothing about her behaviour suggests this. Whereas Vermithor "knew not friend from foe" and attacked those unlucky enough to be in his vicinity, Tessarion's actions were targeted. After making her appearance, she immediately engages Seasmoke and only breaks off when Seasmoke attacks Vermithor, whereupon she also dives into the fray. Her attacks aren't random like Vermithor's, whose rider is dead, nor did she depart as Silverwing did soon after Ulf's death, and she certainly isn't stuck in a holding pattern like Silverwing as we might expect if Daeron was not yet dead. Even her interactions with Seasmoke are puzzling: although she "threw herself into the air, shrieking and spitting flame," Gyldan explicitly tells us the battle between her and Seasmoke was different, with neither dragon making use of the normal means of fighting their own kind such as claws, teeth, or tail. Never closing, they circled and rushed each other, Tessarion diving out of a cloud merely to burn Seasmoke's tail when she could have easily killed Addam, while Seasmoke maneuvered to get behind her without making any serious attack, and both disappeared into the clouds.

Hundreds are said to have watched this 'dance' from the rooftops below, though this seems strange given how the few buildings left intact in Tumbleton were supposed to be burning due to Seasmoke. The idea that Seasmoke and Tessarion were engaged in a 'mating dance' is attributed to one of these observers, and Gyldan admits that "perhaps it was," but this relies upon us knowing what a dragon mating dance looks like, which we do not, and believing that Seasmoke would defy his bond with Addam to mate with riderless Tessarion mid-battle, which we cannot. Compounding all of this bizarre activity by Tessarion is her intervention in Seasmoke's battle with Vermithor, which prompts this bombshell from Gyldan:

Who can know the heart of a dragon? Was it simple bloodlust that drove the Blue Queen to attack? Did the she-dragon come to help one of the combatants? If so, which? Some will claim that the bond between a dragon and dragonrider runs so deep that the beast shares his master’s loves and hates. But who was the ally here, and who the enemy? Does a riderless dragon know friend from foe? (F&B, pg. 533)

There are two major problems with what Gyldan tells us, starting with the idea that a dragon can share "his master's loves and hates." From what little we know of the dragonbond, based on Dany's last POV in ADWD and the clues we get from TWOIAF and F&B, we know that dragons and riders can experience each other's emotions or feelings: Dany screams with Drogon in Daznak's Pit after he is hit with a bolt, while Vhagar and Dreamfyre scream when Aemond loses his eye and Helaena commits suicide. This comment also calls to mind warging, which allows the warg to live a second life after death in their host animal and we likewise see emotions and feelings shared between warg and animal, such as when Jon experiences Ghost's hunger in Jon XII of ASOS. The issue here is that warging involves consciousness transfer, with the warg's mind entering the body of the host; thus Jon and Arya see through Ghost and Nymeria's eyes during their 'wolf dreams,' while Bran sees through Hodor's eyes at the entrance to Bloodraven's cave in ADWD until it's magical ward 'kicks him out' into his own body again. When Dany rides Drogon at the end of ADWD, she sees the world through her own eyes rather than his, so the bond seems to involve a two-way psychic link where both minds remain in their own bodies. While F&B implies that Sunfyre was able to reunite with Aegon II thanks to the strength of their bond, Aegon was alive at the time whereas Daeron is supposed to be dead. In essence this idea relies upon the will of the rider and their emotions living on in their dragon well after the rider's death, but we have no indications that this is possible.

The second and far greater problem is that accepting this explanation, which even Gyldan doesn't really support, has serious implications for Tessarion's actions before, during, and after. If Addam or his men really did kill Daeron in or near his tent, then we still have no explanation for why Tessarion acts as she does towards Addam and Seasmoke. We also know that Daeron signed off on the executions of Ulf and Hugh, and yet Tessarion takes no actions against Silverwing and only attacks Vermithor after Addam and Seasmoke dive in, despite Ulf and Hugh being hated by Daeron prior to his apparent death. Addam and his army have attacked Daeron and his army, while Daeron's planned to move against Ulf and Hugh prior to Addam's attack, yet Tessarion's actions don't really line up with what we'd expect of Daeron's hates, nor does he have any reason to love the three dragonseeds. Gyldan’s wording is also quite significant: he uses the word “his” despite Tessarion being female, which could imply that Seasmoke was following Addam’s will and that they were not looking to fight Tessarion. Between the accounts of Daeron's death and of Tessarion's actions, we can identify a pattern in the writing: mystery surrounds Daeron's circumstances at Second Tumbleton, explanations are proffered that aren't really satisfactory, and in the case of his death the sources either cannot or will not admit to a more straightforward answer. We've already concluded that Daeron's death is mysterious because he clearly didn't die where people expected him to be, so I don't think it's too bold to claim Daeron was flying with Tessarion during the battle.

I made this suggestion in Part 12 of the original analysis, though I concluded he may have fallen from her back into the fires of Tumbleton or the Mander river. Neither explanation actually works, since we know the encampments were outside of Tumbleton and Vermithor nested south of the town, so if Daeron fell to his death from Tessarion it's unlikely he was close enough to Tumbleton or the Mander for his body to land there. Nonetheless, Daeron riding Tessarion in the battle does explain her seemingly purposive actions and why Daeron's body 'disappeared,' since no one would have thought to look around Tessarion, Seasmoke, and Vermithor. We still have a problem though, as I noted already that Daeron should have wanted to fight Addam at least initially, while the attacks on Vermithor almost come off as coordinated. Both dragons disappeared into the clouds, whereupon Addam dove to attack Vermithor and Tessarion followed moments later. In a way it's almost the opposite of Rook's Rest, where the two smaller dragons clashed before being driven to the ground by a far larger one, and Meleys succeeds in threatening Sunfyre which forces Vhagar to come in uncoordinated. At Second Tumbleton, the largest dragon is on the receiving end of the two smaller dragons, who seemingly coordinate their attacks to overcome their larger opponent.

What's missing is why Daeron or Addam would actually help the other when they are on opposite sides of the conflict; I have three answers as to why, but first it's worth considering the numerous parallels between the two. Daeron and Addam are both born in 114 within weeks of each other, making them essentially the same age in 130 AC; their fathers are of Valyrian heritage while their mothers are not, and they appear to take after their fathers in appearance; despite this, both boys are raised primarily by their mothers, likely with some contributions from their grandfathers, and while Viserys was more present in Daeron's life neither he nor Corlys was a remotely adequate father for their sons; they both left home at a similar age, with Addam going to sea at age 10 albeit on his mother's cog, while Daeron is sent to Oldtown at age 12; both boys have strong connections to the sea, with Daeron's mother and her family being Hightowers of Oldtown and Daeron living in Oldtown as of the beginning of the Dance, while Addam obviously has more explicit connections via his birthplace, his upbringing, and his maternal and paternal families; both are knights and dragonriders, with their dragons even being the same size; both claimed their dragons themselves, though a cradle egg was never a possibility for Addam, while Daeron bonded with Tessarion at a similar age to Addam's purported father and Seasmoke's first rider, Laenor Velaryon; they're also said to be charming and well spoken, though this gets undercut in Daeron's case so that the Hightower army can be delayed in Tumbleton for plot reasons.

A key parallel between them is that neither Daeron nor Addam is shown to be needlessly cruel, although they both make morally questionable decisions. This is more obvious with Daeron given he ordered the Sack of Bitterbridge, his motivation being grief and anger at the brutal death of Maelor rather than destruction for destruction's sake, as he is otherwise shown to be gentle and tries to intervene in the Sack of Tumbleton through Hobert Hightower. When Addam attacks the Hightower army, we're told that the few buildings that were spared from the sack and Ulf and Hugh's attack went up in flames due to Seasmoke's fire, and we can safely assume that there were townsfolk who were killed as a result. We've already covered Addam's motivations, which were more likely a concern for his father's life and the lives of King's Landing's population and that of the realm at large, and these motivations would absolutely resonate with Daeron. His own mother is a prisoner of Rhaenyra just like Corlys and neither would be safe if the Betrayers captured King's Landing, and the same can be said for Jaehaera and Aegon II whose whereabouts would still be unknown. Despite their actions, Daeron does not relish death and destruction anymore than Addam does, and so protecting the innocent and defenseless from the Betrayers and their dragons is something both boys would support, in keeping with their knightly vows.

Even so, these arguments about Addam's true motives and Daeron's true fate in the Second Battle of Tumbleton are mere speculation if we can't prove that their cooperation was set-up or foreshadowed in anyway: they may have similar motives and they may have both fought in the battle, but what more do we have to support these contentions? The answer is that we have three clues indicating that Daeron and Addam cooperating in the battle was in the cards for the story, which I've ordered from least to most compelling in my opinion. The first clue comes from the Maiden Day meeting, when Corlys and Rhaenyra discuss what should be done with her brothers: when Rhaenyra asks what is to be done, she refers only to Aegon II and Aemond while Corlys' solution of sending them to the wall seems only directed at them, which The Rise of the Dragon confirms by directly stating that Aegon and Aemond were to be sent to the Wall. The only time Corlys addresses Daeron is when he suggests taking him hostage instead of having Ulf and Hugh kill him, which Rhaenyra rejects; this suggests that Corlys had no real animus against Daeron and was inclined to spare his life. Assuming once again that Addam was forewarned by Corlys or someone sent by him, it's entirely possible these intentions for Daeron were communicated to Addam and he passed this along to Daeron. His motivations according to the story emphasize Ulf and Hugh more than anyone else in the Hightower army, so it appears Addam held no strongly negative feelings towards Daeron either, and it's not clearly stated whether he targeted Daeron's pavilion specifically or if it just caught fire along with the surrounding tents in a general conflagration.

Clue number two takes us back to the start of our discussion of Addam's motivations, where Gyldan claims that "Singers say Ser Addam had flown from King's Landing to the Gods Eye, where he landed on the sacred Isle of Faces and took counsel with the Green Men." Gyldan's dismissal of the story is meant to be a tell that not everything he says should be accepted whole cloth, but I believe there's more at work here. The Isle of Faces is of great importance to the Children of the Forest and the Old Gods religion, but Addam was born and raised on Driftmark and could be assumed to have worshipped the Seven or the Merling King. It's unclear how or if he would have had such knowledge of the Isle or the Green Men, and TWOIAF tells us attempts by outsiders to visit the island are frustrated by winds rising up or flocks of ravens driving them away, with the former definitely presenting an obstacle for a dragon. Addam has no obvious connections to the Old Gods, but outsiders with no ties to the Old Gods have been allowed on the island before: the signing of The Pact between the First Men and the Children of the Forest.

After the Hammer of the Waters was invoked to break the Arm of Dorne, the resulting devastation spurred "the wisest of both races" to seek peace, and the leaders of the First Men and the Children met on the Isle of Faces to conclude the Pact, of which one provision was that the First Men would adopt the Old Gods of the Children as their own. This parallels Second Tumbleton quite nicely: Had Hugh 'Hammer' been acknowledged as a noble bastard, his full name would have been Hugh 'Hammer' Waters, and we know that a prophecy made the rounds of the Tumbleton encampment after the first battle which claimed that "When the hammer shall fall upon the dragon, a new king shall arise…," further tying Hugh to hammer imagery beyond his background as a blacksmith. We thus have Addam Velaryon visiting the Isle of Faces in response to 'the Hammer's' devastation of Tumbleton which threatens the whole realm, culminating in members of the Green and Black factions working together to over come this threat, i.e. Addam and Daeron fighting Vermithor. The prophecy gives us an obvious reference to ASOIAF and the Battle of the Trident, while it can also work as foreshadowing for Addam and Daeron teaming up. Even the idea of Addam taking counsel from the "Green Men" rings true in this light, since he ends up seeking the aid of Daeron, the son of Alicent Hightower and so part of the 'Green' faction in the court of Viserys I (a 'green man').

The third clue hails from 114 AC, the year that Addam, Daeron, and Jace were all born; as Gyldan tells us, "by royal command, the infants Jacaerys Velaryon and Daeron Targaryen shared a wet nurse until weaned," as Viserys "hoped to prevent any enmity between the two boys by raising them as milk brothers." We know that Viserys' hopes were dashed and that the forced closeness between Daeron and Jace did not prevent them from becoming rivals and ultimately enemies during the Dance. Daeron and Addam teaming up at Second Tumbleton is thus a nod to these efforts by Viserys, as a Velaryon boy born in the same year as Daeron and Jace does work with Daeron without their ostensible enmity getting in the way. It thus acts as a parallel and a callback to events earlier in the text, but it also works because it highlights an important theme from George's writing and ASOIAF in particular, being that of choice vs determinism/coercion. Preston Jacobs made an excellent series of videos laying out this theme through Brienne's character arc in ACOK, ASOS, and AFFC, and it's also an underlying theme of the Dunk and Egg novels.

The upshot of this is that heroic characters choose to do the right thing because it is right, as opposed to being forced to do so or simply going through the motions of some code or vows. When Brienne is being hanged with Podrick and Hyle Hunt at the end of AFFC, Lady Stoneheart gives her two choices of her oath to Catelyn or dying an oathbreaker; the word she cries out at the end of the chapter was "sword" according to George, but her POV focuses on Podrick's struggles rather than her sword or her own death. The implication is that Brienne chooses to save others rather than her own honour and oath to Catelyn and death, and that she lies to Stoneheart and the Brotherhood for Pod and Hyle's sake. In a similar vein, Viserys' attempts to force Daeron and Jace to like each other fails, whereas Daeron and Addam choose for themselves to work together to protect others. This explains Seasmoke and Tessarion's 'dance,' which would have been Addam trying to communicate with Daeron and enlist his aid in good faith, which then explains the attacks on Vermithor. Although I've criticized the story turning Daeron into a 'follower' for the sake of the Tumbleton plot, that choice could be part of a character arc for Daeron, since we know that Addam attacked Vermithor alone and was losing badly according to Benjicot Blackwood until Tessarion intervened. This could easily have been Daeron making his own choice to save the lives of others rather than cling to personal honour factional loyalties.

So to recap what I've laid out thus far, Addam attacked the Hightower army not to prove his loyalty to Rhaenyra and salvage his personal honour by punishing Ulf and Hugh, but because he chose to protect the lives of others, including his father Corlys, over his personal honour and reputation. Hugh is killed by Jon Roxton when the attack gets under way while Ulf sleeps through the battle due to a hangover, but contrary to the theories put forward after the war, Daeron survives the initial attack or may even have been forewarned by Tessarion's dragon senses and neither are in Daeron's camp when the Riverlords storm through. Daeron seeks out Addam in the skies over the battlefield, but Addam attempts dialogue with him instead of the two fighting to the death; Vermithor goes berserk and starts attacking anyone or anything around him, and Addam dives out of the clouds from his impromptu meeting with Daeron to attack the 'Bronze Fury.' Daeron and Tessarion follow moments later, and a chaotic melee ensues on the ground between the three dragons, ending in death for Addam and most likely Daeron.

vi. "Have you news of my boy Jack?"

The scenario I've just laid out for the Second Battle of Tumbleton has many things going for it, at least in my opinion: it fits in with the meta themes of perception and truth within stories which George explores through unreliable narrators in his own works and ASOIAF especially, and which I believe he demonstrates through the stories of Nettles, Alys Rivers, and the Battle Above the Gods Eye as we discussed in Part Nine. Furthermore, it explores themes and calls back to characters and character arcs within ASOIAF itself, while offering explanations for inconsistencies which are conspicuous and inconspicuous within the narrative of the battle and of the Dance itself. It also gives the events of Second Tumbleton a sense of pathos and tragedy more effectively than the narrative portrayed by Gyldan, but more on that later. Even so, this scenario creates more questions than answers because it only further deepens the greatest mystery of the battle: what became of Daeron?

As I said above, there is a pattern to how F&B tries to explain the mysteries surrounding Daeron: explanations or accounts are offered which are not satisfactory, the narrative gives us hints that Gyldan acknowledges this problem, and closer scrutiny provides us a solution which the sources cannot or will not accept. Daeron riding Tessarion in the battle helps to explain the uncertainties about his death and Tessarion's actions, by showing that he left his tent to ride her into battle and thus his body would not have been found in his camp while Tessarion's strange actions are explained by Daeron's presence. What happened to Daeron remains a mystery: Addam's body was recovered but accepting that Daeron rode Tessarion and cooperated with Addam means we should expect his body to have been found near Tessarion or at least in the vicinity of the battle with Vermithor. Not only is his body not recovered, his disappearance along with the inability of authorities and chroniclers to find a convincing cause of death provides foundations for a political crisis during Aegon III's reign, in which 'False Daerons' appear claiming to be the lost prince and try to press his claim to the throne, though Gyldan tells us they were all exposed as frauds. In theory we should expect a similar pattern: explanations are offered about his manner of death and his pretenders are labeled frauds, but Gyldan acknowledges that no one is sure exactly how he died while the fact multiple 'False Daerons' appeared and made claims clearly indicates that the mystery endured despite a series of debunkings.

Sticking with our pattern we should expect an answer to this final mystery of Daeron which the sources cannot or will not accept, but this is easier said than done. It's worth noting that there are numerous parallels between the Second Battle of Tumbleton and its predecessor, the Battle Above the Gods Eye: both involved two dragon riders, both saw smaller dragons launch diving attacks on a larger foe from out of the clouds, both include combatants killed by penetrating their eye, with Aemond killed by Darksister while his younger brother's dragon is mercy killed by Bill Burley firing three arrows into her eye; and in both battles, the remains of one rider is found while speculation ensues that the missing rider may have survived and lived on, as Addam's body is recovered and Aemond's bones are later found, but neither Daeron nor Daemon are accounted for (the latter two even have similar names). The problem with these parallels is that the environments of the battles were different, and this helps to explain the fates of Aemond and Daemon's bodies; as we noted in Part Nine, Aemond was chained to his saddle and seemingly already dead when Vhagar hit the lake and sank, so his bones could be found by locating Vhagar. Daemon was not chained to his saddle and this allowed him to potentially deliver the killing blow to Aemond, but it means he would have landed in the water and as we argued in Part Nine, this would guarantee his death and allow for the currents and fish to disperse his body as Gyldan proposes.

The circumstances could not be more different for Second Tumbleton, as the dragons were above the land the entire time and fought their final clash on the ground, meaning Daeron and Addam's corpses could not sink. This explains why Addam's corpse could be recovered while Aemond's bones remained lost for some time, but the circumstances of the battle also make it hard to believe that any remains could be left of Addam, let alone Daeron. If we consider the two other dragon-v-dragon battles of the Dance, Rook's Rest and Dragonstone, we know that Baela unchained herself from Moondancer while Sunfyre devoured her, but she was "burned and battered" and had to be rushed to a maester by Marston Waters, and we also covered the problems with that scenario in Part Five. At Rook's Rest, Aegon is horrifically injured with half of his body severely burned, parts of his armour melted into his skin, and suffering many broken bones, while "a body believed to be Rhaenys Targaryen" was found near Meleys "but it was so blackened that no one could be sure it was her." At Second Tumbleton, Seasmoke's collision with Vermithor had sufficient force to drive the far larger dragon into the ground from c.20 feet in the air, and the two became entangled and rolled around on the ground while crushing anyone unlucky enough to be caught up in the frenzy. Tessarion dives in afterwards, but we're not given any sense how she affected the battle; we're simply told that Seasmoke died first, that Vermithor died soon after when he tried to fly with Seasmoke's head after killing him, crashed to the ground and died instead, while Tessarion lingered till sunset.

It's frankly a miracle that any remains were left from Addam or Daeron, but the fact Addam's body survived and his alone is a problem. There's no good reason why his body should have survived when he was the first to enter the fray with Vermithor, and Benjicot Blackwood's interview with Munkun implies that Seasmoke had the worst of that match-up due to Vermithor's size and weight. We once again need to remember that dragonriders ride on the backs of their dragons, so any rolling on Seasmoke's part would absolutely have crushed Addam and especially if we add Vermithor's weight on top. The manner of Seasmoke's death underscores this further, as we're told Vermithor tore off his head while Doug Wheatley's illustration depicts Vermithor holding the head in his mouth with some neck still attached, standing over what we can assume is the headless body of Seasmoke. According to Gyldan, "the broken body of Ser Addam Velaryon" was found dead beside his dragon, but the damage he should have suffered would be worse than just a 'broken' body. Once again, the injuries of Aegon II and the inability to even identify Rhaenys' body at Rook's Rest is instructive, especially since Sunfyre and Meleys crashed into the ground due to Vhagar while all three dragons at Second Tumbleton were locked in a vicious melee on the ground for some time.

Another factor to consider regarding Addam's fate is his riding 'tack' for Seasmoke: Addam was posted to the dragonpit prior to his flight in order to defend the city at a moment's notice, so we can safely assume that Seasmoke was saddled and Addam was chained into the saddle, both when he fled and when he fought at Second Tumbleton. We see throughout the dance that the saddle and chains have important effects on the rider, both good and ill: one account of Jace's death at the Gullet claims that he leapt from Vermax's back before being killed by crossbow fire as he clung to debris, which could suggest he freed himself from the saddle in time although we cannot be sure; we're told Aemond secured himself on Vhagar's back via four short chains between his belt and saddle while Daemon left his chains dangling, which allowed Daemon to leap from his saddle and kill Aemond, while ensuring Aemond's bones would be found as opposed to Daemon's; we're told Baela still found the strength to undo her chains and crawl away after Sunfyre and Moondancer crashed into the courtyard on Dragonstone, whereas Aegon II leapt 20 feet from his saddle and we might assume he was not chained in since he would lack the equipment after having fled King's Landing; we then have Joffrey Velaryon's failed attempt to ride his mother's dragon Syrax, but falls 200 feet to his lack of a bond with Syrax and his rush to take flight leaving her without a saddle or a whip to control her.

Addam might well have escaped his saddle as Baela did and as Jace may have done, but this highly doubtful given the utter chaos of the melee, and even if he was found beside his dragon as Rhaenys allegedly was, the destruction his body should have suffered would make him as impossible to identify as she was. We also have to factor in that Vermithor crashed to the ground after attempting to fly and this would pose a further risk to Addam's body, while carrion animals were feasting on the corpses by the time the Riverlords left which should have added another risk. Daeron's situation is an interesting contrast, since the story denies his role in the battle despite the evidence supporting it. Tessarion intervenes in the melee with Vermithor after Seasmoke's attack, but despite Seasmoke's brutal death and the chaos generated by the fight, Tessarion outlives both dragons and lasts until perhaps a few hours before the Riverlords depart. She attempts to fly three times, and when Bill Burley kills her with three arrows in the eye it is portrayed as a mercy killing, meaning she could easily have lingered in pain for some time afterwards. She fairs much better than either dragon, and if Daeron was with her during the battle then we would expect a somewhat similar outcome for his own remains.

Daeron riding Tessarion without her saddle or saddle chains would once again parallel the Battle Above the Gods Eye, as well as the death of Joffrey Velaryon. In both cases we'd have the third son of a queen riding a dragon without proper tack, leading them to fall to their death, although Daeron would have fared better thanks to his bond with Tessarion. Tessarion was not in Daeron's camp when the attack was fully underway, and Daeron's corpse could not have been in or near his tent; Gyldan tells us the Hightower men were cut down "as they staggered from their tents, as they were saddling their horses, struggling to don their armour, buckling their sword belts," so it's unlikely Daeron got airborne with everything he needed for the fight. Although an experienced rider like Daeron could have held on without his chains as Daemon is said to have done and apparently Aegon II, the chaos of the melee with Vermithor presents opportunities for him to fall or be thrown from Tessarion's back, or possibly to climb off to escape, that would spare his body from the damage Addam suffered while still guaranteeing his death. His body would be broken like Joffrey's was, while Aegon II also suffered serious broken bones after his leap from Sunfyre, so we once again have parallels to turn to for Daeron's fate in the battle.

As for what became of his body, my explanation is actually what gave me the idea to rethink Second Tumbleton, first as its own theory post but ultimately as part of the re-analysis. Simply put, I think the body which Benjicot Blackwood found was Daeron, not Addam; the chances of finding either boy's body would not have been great, but the chances of finding Daeron should have been greater, and would explain how Daeron's body could not be found when it should have been near Vermithor, Tessarion, and Seasmoke. This is definitely a more tinfoil-y theory than what I've presented for Daeron's death and Tessarion's actions in the battle, but there are two bodies of evidence (no pun intended) to draw upon. Firstly, Daeron's body being recovered and presented as Addam's has thematic relevance in terms of the pattern we've already identified and George's own themes and writing; secondly, there is evidence that the Riverlords knowingly or unknowingly presented Daeron's remains as Addam's.

The thematic and/or story relevance of Daeron's body being swapped for Addam stems from a number of factors, most obvious of which is the strange circumstances surrounding Addam's remains. Taking Addam's remains to Raventree Hall makes sense because the Riverlords didn't march on King's Landing after the battle, and it's unlikely they would bring them on the march to King's Landing in 131 AC since they couldn't guarantee a victory against Aegon II's forces. Nonetheless, the fact his bones were only returned at Alyn's request in 138 AC, almost a decade after Addam's death, is incomprehensible: Benjicot Blackwood, Sabitha Frey, and Hugo Vance fought for Addam at Second Tumbleton and survived the 'Muddy Mess,' joining 'the Lads' in King's Landing at the end of the war, while we might include Kermit and Oscar Tully assuming one or both of them fought with Elmo at Second Tumbleton. It makes no sense why none of them would bring up Addam's death or the existence of his remains to Corlys or Alyn during the 'False Dawn' or the 'Hour of the Wolf,' as a means of ingratiating themselves with the Velaryons or at the very least to pay respects to Addam and prove that he was indeed loyal and a 'good bastard.' Corlys died in March of 132 AC, meaning just under a year passed between Aegon III and Jaehaera's wedding and Corlys death without Corlys, Alyn, or any of the Riverlords addressing the issue of Addam's remains, while Addam's heroism and his status as Corlys' heir prior to his death never comes up in the context of the Driftmark succession dispute between Alyn, Daeron and Daemion Velaryon, and Rhogar and Malentine of the 'Silent Five.'

Keeping in mind the varying quality of the Dance's writing, the absence of Addam from these events and the lengthy delay in returning his remains could be explained by the fact that the remains were not his own, while his bones returning in 138 would ensure no one could identify whether it was Addam or Daeron. It's also worth noting that although Addam's bones were interred on Driftmark at Hull, and a mouse and seahorse were engraved on his tomb as a nod to his parentage, 'LOYAL' is the only word inscribed on the tomb. Without prior knowledge that this was Addam's tomb, that he was born and raised in Hull, or that 'mouse' was his mother's nickname, there's no way of knowing that this tomb belonged to Addam in particular. While it served to honour Addam and those living at the time would have accepted it as Addam's tomb, the direct connections with Addam are subtle enough that it can function as a kind of 'Tomb of the Unknown Soldier,' so that Daeron is also paid respects unwittingly and his bones have a proper resting place. When we consider the parallels between Addam and Daeron that we've already discussed, it seems a little too coincidental for George to have the climactic dragon battle of the Dance end with controversy surrounding a mysterious death and missing body, when the two dragonriders involved in the battle were almost the same age, would have had similar appearances, and likely met their ends on the same battlefield.

There's a fun, 'prince and the pauper' element to this idea, where Daeron the prince and at least a former commoner in Addam are mistaken for one another, with Addam being rightly lauded as a hero, albeit for the wrong reasons, without anyone knowing that the bones in his tomb are those of a prince, assumed to be Addam's enemy and possibly a current enemy of the realm due to the 'False Daerons.' There's also the fact that George has pulled off actual or alleged body swaps multiple times in the series, including in F&B where Rhaena's twin daughters, Aerea and Rhaella Targaryen, are disguised as each other and sent away after Aegon the Uncrowned is killed at the Gods Eye, to keep them safe from Maegor, with it later being implied that the girls' identities remained swapped until their deaths. ASOIAF is full of these swaps: Gilly and Dalla's babies, Mance Rayder and Rattleshirt, Jeyne Poole and Arya, Aegon VI and the 'Pisswater Prince' (allegedly), Ramsay and the original Reek, and the bodies of the Miller's Boys which Theon presents as Bran and Rickon in ACOK. The last example is especially relevant, since Theon uses the disfigured corpses of the Miller's Boys to claim that Bran and Rickon are dead, when all the while we know that they are actually hidden in the crypts; the Addam and Daeron swap would essentially be the opposite, with a prince's body being presented as that of a former commoner and bastard, with controversy and conflict raging over Daeron's fate when all the while his bones are actually entombed right under the noses of the Targaryens and Velaryons. The parallels between Daeron and Joffrey Velaryon also continue here, since Joffrey is claimed to be a Velaryon but is actually the bastard son of Harwin Strong, much as Daeron’s remains would be claimed as a Velaryon’s despite being a Targaryen’s.

The thematic relevance and support for the Addam-Daeron corpse caper is also crucial in tying back to the pattern we identified about Daeron's mysteries: none of the explanations are satisfactory and people seem to know this, while a straightforward solution is right in front of the observers who cannot or will not accept it. The idea that Daeron's bones are interred in Addam's tomb without anyone being aware of this would have a similar effect for the 'False Daerons' while adding dramatic irony to that plotline. F&B ends late in 136 AC, since we know Aegon III was born in the last days of 120 AC and his nameday in 136 is when he dismisses the Council of Regents and his reign officially begins. Neither TWOIAF nor F&B gives us any dates for the 'False Daeron' rebellions, but we do know that Addam's bones are returned to Driftmark in 138 AC and Daeron I is born five years later in 143 AC. The timing of Aegon III's official reign is also significant: 137 AC would be the first actual year of his reign, while Aenys Targaryen succeeded Aegon the Conqueror in 37 AC; Aenys made a progress of the realm south of the Neck after his coronation, whereas a much larger progress was planned for Aegon III but canceled when he dismissed the Regents; while Aenys' progress was followed by four different rebellions led by would-be kings, and Aegon III also had to deal with several 'False Daerons' who sought to claim the throne.

I would not be surprised if the first of the 'False Daerons' appeared in 137 or 138 AC given these parallels; it would also mean that returning Addam's bones to Driftmark may have been counter-programming against the rebels by reminding the realm of the 'real hero,' the irony being that Addam and Daeron were both heroes at Second Tumbleton and that this is another case of others repurposing Addam's story for their own agenda. This would also have implications for Daeron I's naming, as he shares a name with both his grandfather and great uncle, Daeron Velaryon and Daeron Targaryen respectively. We thus have a mystery represented by the 'False Daerons,' an explanation which is rendered unsatisfactory by the existence of multiple of these 'Daerons' despite their identities being debunked, and finally we have our answer that cannot or will not be acknowledged. Daeron died at Second Tumbleton, but his body was recovered rather than Addam's and his bones were interred in Addam's tomb at Hull. It offers the solution to the 'False Daerons,' since his remains can be located, but no one knows this is true and few would probably believe it if it was revealed, especially Alyn and the Velaryons.

With or without the corpse caper, Daeron's fate is ultimately the same as Addam's: both die in battle and are unable to tell their own story as to why they acted as they did during Second Tumbleton, and before in Addam's case. Their deaths and the obscuring of the events of the battle afterwards allow others to write their stories for them, and in neither case are their memories done justice. Just as Addam is turned into a caricature that upholds the unjust beliefs and morays of Westerosi society, Daeron's identity is appropriated by others to pursue power, which stands in stark contrast to Daeron's gentle nature and the selfless nature of his final act to aid Addam and Seasmoke against Vermithor. The fate of these two young men also mirrors that of the two women we discussed in Part Nine, Alys Rivers and Nettles. In all four cases, individual stories and histories are left to others to tell, and the way these stories are portrayed tells us more about the writers and their biases than it does about their subjects. Nettles and Alys were ordinary women who elevated themselves above their circumstances during extraordinary times, but both are approached through the lens of Westerosi misogyny and their alleged relationships with powerful men, losing sight of who they truly were and their importance to history. Similarly, Daeron and Addam are young men whose portrayals are coloured by the socio-political baggage of the Seven Kingdoms post-Dance, with Addam being re-written to support the status quo of bastards in Westerosi society while Daeron's part is downplayed and erased because of events a decade or more after his death.

This brings us to the second body of evidence, and my final point on this subject: there is evidence that the Riverlords knowingly or unknowingly presented Daeron's remains as Addam. Two key figures in this theory are Benjicot Blackwood and Black Trombo, the former the preteen heir of Samwell Blackwood and head of House Blackwood after the Battle of the Burning Mill, and the latter a former mummer turned sellsword from Myr who was hired by House Vance of Wayfarer's Rest during the Dance. "Bloody Ben" features prominently in the events of Second Tumbleton and afterwards: he answers the call of Addam and Elmo Tully to march on Tumbleton and is the only participant we're told gave testimony about the battle; he notices Tessarion's pain and orders Bill Burley to kill her, and is the one who carries Addam's body when the Riverlords leave Tumbleton; and he was lord of Raventree Hall when Addam's bones were sent to Driftmark. His character and Daeron’s are also similar, as both are said to be gentle-natured but are also capable warriors, with Ben weeping at the sight of the slaughter after the 'Fish Feed' while Daeron tries unsuccessfully to stop the Sack of Tumbleton. They also suffer the same fate of being brushed aside by older characters for plot reasons, as Daeron is sidelined during the Sack while Ben and the Tully brothers get the same treatment from Cregan Stark during the 'Hour of the Wolf.'

We thus have Ben mentioning that Tessarion aided Addam and Seasmoke and ordering her to be mercy-killed; if we believe it was Daeron's body the Riverlords recovered, then he is also the one to carry Daeron's body. What we're shown of his character suggests a capable warrior who does not relish in slaughter and brutality, as demonstrated by his reaction to the 'Fish Feed' and the fact his nickname "Bloody Ben" was not bestowed until after the final battle of the war, the 'Muddy Mess,' despite seeing combat since 130 AC. We already noted that the Riverlords actions during the Second Tumbleton campaign and in 131 AC are not indicative of diehard loyalty for Rhaenyra, save for TWOIAF and F&B claiming that this motivated Kermit and Oscar Tully. Elmo Tully and Lords Piper and Deddings died after or during Second Tumbleton; Derrick Darry fought at Second Tumbleton but a Lord Roland Darry answers Elmo's call in 131 and is killed at the 'Muddy Mess,' so we may assume Derrick either died during or after Second Tumbleton or that he was accidentally renamed Roland and that Derrick/Roland Darry died in 131. If there was any caper involving Daeron's body, Ben's friendship with Kermit and Oscar along with the latter's departing for Essos after Aegon III's wedding could ensure silence from the Tullys, while fighting beside Sabitha Frey and her relationship with Alysanne Blackwood would have the same effect. Hugo Vance is the only other lord with potential knowledge of such a plot, but his cooperation would be likely based on our other key figure, Black Trombo.

Trombo first appears after Aemond and Cole depart from Harrenhal; although Gyldan later credits Benjicot Blackwood's forces with intercepting Cole and Aemond's foragers at Harrenhal and harassing Cole's forces as they march south, Black Trombo and his sellswords were also involved in the latter campaign and in particular the 'corpse feast' and ambush at Crossed Elms. Trombo was hired by Lord Vance, and since Lord Tristan Vance was killed by Adrian Tarbeck at the Red Fork we can assume that the young Hugo Vance was in charge by this point. Hugo's youth and taking over for his father after his death in battle parallel Benjicot Blackwood's situation, and between Trombo's role in harassing Cole's forces and Hugo leading the Wayfarer's Rest Vances at Second Tumbleton and the Muddy Mess, I think we can also presume that Hugo would support Ben if any cover story was needed to explain the 'irregularities' of what happened at Tumbleton. The text presents parallels between events in the Dance and in the main ASOIAF books which suggest Trombo was involved at the very least: Trombo is a mummer-turned-sellsword, and 'mummery' or a 'mummer's farce' is always used in the books to refer to something which is not as it seems; thus Dany regards Xaro Xhoan Daxos’ emotional appeals for her to leave Meereen as "mummer's tears" in Daenaerys III of ADWD, while Wyman Manderly is engaged in a "mummer's farce" in the same book by pretending to be loyal to Tommen and the Boltons while actually conspiring to rebel against them.

We see Trombo's mummery at Crossed Elms, when Cole's outriders are ambushed by men hiding under corpses taken from the 'Fish Feed,' and we already suggested that Trombo himself may have used a disfigured corpse as proof of killing Daeron when it's doubtful the corpse was actually the prince. That would give us two instances of Trombo using corpses to disguise the truth, so it wouldn't be surprising if he used a disfigured corpse to claim credit for Daeron's death while doing so to provide a cover story for Ben and any of his allies. This certainly makes sense given his parallels with another, more prominent former mummer from the Three Daughters in ASOIAF: Lord Varys, "The Spider." Their former professions are the same, Trombo is Myrish while Varys is Lyseni meaning both hail from the Three Daughters; we know Varys faked Jon Connington's death to bring him to Essos and into the conspiracy with Illyrio, while Trombo uses corpses to convince Cole's riders that Crossed Elms is abandoned, only for the men hiding under them to spring the trap; Trombo allegedly killing Daeron by striking his face with his morningstar also parallels the alleged death of Aegon VI, who was smashed head-first against a column by the Mountain, as this would allow Trombo to claim any body was Daeron's while Aegon VI was allegedly swapped with the 'pisswater prince,' whose wrecked face ostensibly prevented the swap from being discovered.

vii. The Meaning of Second Tumbleton

To recap my proposals for the sake of any readers that may be understandably lost: 1) Addam Velaryon and his Riverlord allies were not at Tumbleton out of loyalty to Rhaenyra, but to defend the realm from the Betrayers; 2) Prince Daeron did not die in his camp that night, but took to the skies with Tessarion and fought Vermithor alongside Addam and Seasmoke; 3) Benjicot Blackwood could not recover Addam's body, and so Daeron's body was taken in his stead, with his bones being interred on Driftmark in 138 AC. There is textual and subtextual evidence to support this, along with numerous parallels between these events and the characters involved and others within the world of ASOIAF. Nonetheless, this theory has two problems, the first being why no one revealed these things or at least revealed the identity of the bones; the second is whether or not any of this can be relevant to the story and the themes as a whole? What we need is a through-line so-to-speak, and that requires us to dig a little more into the characters of Benjicot Blackwood and Hugo Vance.

A good place to start with these two is their names, which tell us a lot about their characters and especially Ben. With regards to Hugo Vance, it's a known fact at this point that House Vance of Wayfarer's Rest and Atranta are both references to American sci-fi author Jack Vance, a three-time Hugo Award winner and one of George's inspirations as a writer. Of course the Hugo Awards are named after Victor Hugo, one of the great writers of all time and in particular of historical fiction, a genre that sits alongside sci-fi and fantasy as a major influence on the writing of ASOIAF. So Hugo Vance is both an explicit reference to one of George's favourite writers and has the last names of two great writers for his own first and last names. As for Ben, his name and character are references to another genre that influenced George as a writer, perhaps even more than fantasy or sci-fi: superhero comics, in particular Marvel Comics. Alliterative names are commonplace in Marvel and DC comics, and Benjicot Blackwood has similarities with one of George's favourite heroes, The Amazing Spiderman. Benjicot Blackwood and Peter Parker have alliterative names, and both have alter egos in "Bloody Ben" and Spiderman, with Gyldan telling us outright that "clad in mail-and-plate, Bloody Ben was an altogether different man...." Assuming the corpse-caper took place, Ben and Peter also harbour secret identities, Peter has his literal secret identity as Spiderman, while Ben harbours the secret about the true identity of Addam’s bones. Ben also shares a name with Peter's uncle and father figure, Ben Parker, as well as a frequent ally of Spiderman and member of George's favourite hero team, Ben Grimm of the Fantastic Four, aka The Thing. Finally, Ben's initials and character traits are shared by a member of the Avengers, also favourites of George: Bruce Banner, the Incredible Hulk, who is much like Benjicot in that you won't like him when he's angry!

We thus have two characters whose names and backstories call to mind George's writing inspirations and favourite genres; we also have a writer and a hero/protagonist character paired together not unlike Vergil and Dante in the Divine Comedy, a fitting parallel in my opinion since Ben and Hugo are essentially travelers through hell, observing the horrors of war in the Riverlands and the surrounding lands. Aside from their names being references, Ben and Hugo follow similar paths in the war: Benjicot is 11 when the Dance begins while Gyldan refers to Hugo as 'young' in the context of Second Tumbleton; the Dance pits both boys families against their neighbours, with the Blackwoods supporting Rhaenyra against their old foes and supporters of Aegon II, the Brackens, while the Wayfarer's Rest and Atranta Vances support Rhaenyra and Aegon respectively; both become the lord of their house after their fathers are killed in battle, with Samwell Blackwood falling at the Burning Mill and Tristan Vance being slain by Adrian Tarbeck at the Red Fork; and both Ben and Hugo enter the fight around the same time, as Ben fights at the 'Fish Feed' while Black Trombo first appears during Cole's retreat from Harrenhal, meaning Hugo Vance joined the Riverlords sometime after Ben. Both of them survive the Dance and are involved in its major battles from the 'Fish Feed' to the 'Muddy Mess,' save for their conspicuous absence at First Tumbleton.

I say conspicuous absence because they conveniently escape the fate of Garibald Grey, Red Robb Rivers and the rest, but F&B seems to forget this fact. While properly introducing "Bloody Ben" at the start of the 'Hour of the Wolf,' Gyldan tells us that "At the Fishfeed he had famously wept at the sight of so many dead, yet he did not flinch from battle afterward, but rather sought it out," only to contradict himself by listing off Ben's role in defeating Cole, his participation in Second Tumbleton, and his crucial actions at the 'Muddy Mess.' It cannot have escaped Gyldan, George, or anyone able to count to two that Benjicot Blackwood appears to have flinched from battle or did not seek it with regards to First Tumbleton; I noticed this fact but was inclined to cynically dismiss it as George sparing a character with importance to the later plot, but Black Trombo's absence from First Tumbleton means that Hugo Vance wasn't there either. Considering the negligible information we have about Hugo Vance, George could easily have killed him at First Tumbleton while not mentioning Trombo at the Butcher's Ball and placing him in service to another house, provided they were mere side characters.

It could be argued that the Blackwoods and Vances had suffered heavy losses and that Aemond's looming threat caused them to withdraw, and yet Red Robb Rivers, the Bowman of Raventree, marched on with Grey and the rest rather than following Raventree Hall's new lord. Moreover, no one else seems to have taken leave of the host, in fact they gain new levies from the Blackwater Rush, so casualties and the threat of Aemond had no effect on the others. Gyldan also tells us during the 'Hour of the Wolf' that the Blackwoods and Vances ruled larger domains and could raise larger armies than the Tullys, while Benjicot and Hugo are never said to have raised new levies for Addam's army unlike Piper, Smallwood, Darry, and Deddings, whom "all had suffered grievous losses in the autumn's battles." Ben and Hugo clearly took part in the lead up to the 'Butcher's Ball' and would have been present at that battle, yet neither is mentioned explicitly; Pate of Longleaf even gives the order for Red Robb and his men to shoot down Ser Criston Cole, despite Gyldan telling us that Benjicot "had refused to delegate authority to older men...." When we consider how recently Ben and Hugo will have joined the Riverlord host and how far away their seats were from the Gods Eye and Tumbleton, these inconsistencies in the narrative point towards something happening which caused the young lords to break ranks. The slaughtering of the Riverlords at First Tumbleton meant no one save Ben or Hugo could say what happened, but I think we have enough evidence which both reveals the cause of their withdrawal and the through line of the Second Tumbleton plot.

The 'Butcher's Ball' is the ignominious end to Criston Cole's story: after parting ways with Aemond due to their disagreements, he leads what remains of their army south to link up with Daeron and Ormund. Black skirmishers, which we now know were Blackwood and Vance men with Trombo's sellswords, tail him along the lakeshore and south towards the Blackwater Rush, where the Riverlords finally confront Cole and slaughter him along with his host. The key moment comes when Cole goes to treat with Garibald Grey, Pate of Longleaf, and Roderick Dustin, and I'll quote their exchange at length:

Calling for a peace banner, King Aegon’s Hand rode out to treat with them. Three came down from the ridge to meet him. Chief amongst them was Ser Garibald Grey in his dented plate and mail. Pate of Longleaf was with him, the Lionslayer who had cut down Jason Lannister, together with Roddy the Ruin, bearing the scars he had taken at the Fishfeed. “If I strike my banners, do you promise us our lives?” Ser Criston asked the three of them. “I made my promise to the dead,” Ser Garibald replied. “I told them I would build a sept for them out of traitors’ bones. I don’t have near enough bones yet, so…” Ser Criston answered, “If there is to be battle here, many of your own will die as well.” The northman Roderick Dustin laughed at these words, saying, “That’s why we come. Winter’s here. Time for us to go. No better way to die than sword in hand.” Ser Criston drew his longsword from its scabbard. “As you will it. We can begin here, the four of us. One of me against the three of you. Will that be enough to make a fight of it?” But Longleaf the Lionslayer said, “I’ll want three more,” and up on the ridge Red Robb Rivers and two of his archers raised their longbows. Three arrows flew across the field, striking Cole in belly, neck, and breast. “I’ll have no songs about how brave you died, Kingmaker,” declared Longleaf. “There’s tens o’ thousands dead on your account.” He was speaking to a corpse. (F&B, pg. 475-476)

Even Garibald Grey considered the subsequent fight 'butchery' rather than battle, from whence Mushroom derived the battle's name. When we consider that Jaime Lannister was the first character to acknowledge Cole in the books in AFFC, and both are kingmakers in the figurative sense for both Cole and Jaime as well as literally for the latter, the parallels between them are further stressed by the Butcher's Ball. Like Jaime during the Sack of King's Landing, Criston Cole chooses the lives of others over his loyalty to his king and his own honour, turning his back on Prince Regent Aemond and offering to surrender rather than squander the lives of his sick, exhausted men. Jaime succeeds where Cole fails, but they both demonstrate what we already talked about: putting the lives of others above loyalty to your superiors and ruler and your own personal honour wins you few to no favours in the Seven Kingdoms. Cole is cut down beneath a peace banner by six opponents, a reference to his telling Aemond that "one against six is a fight for fools;" Gyldan tells us before that many of Cole's men deserted on the march and joined the Riverlords, but rather than add Cole's remaining thousands to their ranks, the leaders of the Riverlord host choose to risk their men's lives in a needless battle for the sake of it.

Killing a foe beneath a peace banner and massacring his men after he sought to surrender is undoubtedly a war crime by Westerosi standards, and we are meant to view the Butcher's Ball as such based on what happens next. Just as the Westerlands army marched against Lord Piper at Acorn Hall with his grandson's head impaled on a spear, the Riverlords arrive at Tumbleton with Cole's head upon a spear, but whereas the Westerlands army was driven into the water at the 'Fish Feed,' the Riverlords are immolated by dragon fire. After treacherously killing Criston Cole, Owain Bourney, Roger Corne, and the Two Betrayers repay Garibald Grey and his ilk in their own coin, and Grey is even wounded by a crossbow bolt to the chest before being engulfed in dragon fire, just as one of the three arrows fired at Cole struck his breast. As Rhaenyra later finds out, treachery begets treachery, and butchery begets butchery for the Riverlords, who are betrayed while Tumbleton is horrifically sacked. This is as close as it gets to karmic justice and/or moral judgement being meted out by the writer and the narrative, and it can't be mere coincidence that Ben and Hugo were spared from it.

When we compare the 'Butcher's Ball' to Benjicot Blackwood's actions during and after Second Tumbleton, there is a clear contrast between them. When Cregan Stark takes over during the 'Hour of the Wolf' and plans to attack Oldtown, Storm's End and Casterly Rock, his dialogue with the Lads is almost the exact same as Cole's exchange with Roderick Dustin:

Ser Criston answered, “If there is to be battle here, many of your own will die as well.” The northman Roderick Dustin laughed at these words, saying, “That’s why we come. Winter’s here. Time for us to go. No better way to die than sword in hand.” (F&B, pg. 475) When Kermit Tully pointed out that Storm's End, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock...would not fall easily...and young Ben Blackwood echoed him and said, "Half your men will die, Lord Stark," the grey-eyed Wolf of Winterfell replied, "They died the day we marched, boy." (F&B, pg. 575)

Ben is placed at odds with the nihilistic, brutal logic of the northerners, a logic which Grey, Pate, and Rivers did not dispute when Dustin replied to Cole. Based on what we're told of Ben's character and our arguments about Addam's motivations, Benjicot Blackwood will have fought at Second Tumbleton to safeguard the lives of the realm and his people, rather than to prove his loyalty to his queen and uphold his own honour. Whereas Cole is pierced with three arrows out of cruelty at the 'Butcher's Ball,' Tessarion is felled by three arrows as a mercy by Ben’s own orders. Pate of Longleaf signals Red Robb and his archers to shoot down Cole because he has no wish for him to die bravely, as punishment for his actions in the Dance; by contrast, Ben tells Munkun that Tessarion's intervention saved Addam's life against Vermithor, ensuring that Daeron's brave deeds will be remembered even if he himself is not. Gyldan may be right that Benjicot and perhaps Hugo Vance did not shrink from battle, but he is absolutely wrong about actively seeking it out, especially one which was needless and cruel like the 'Butcher's Ball.' With Aemond, Cole, and the Lannisters invading the Riverlands, it was only natural that Ben and Hugo would take up their fathers swords to defend their lands, but they both clearly chose to walk away before First Tumbleton.

This brings us back to the question of Daeron's death and the possible corpse caper: Grey et al inflict a further indignity on Cole after his death by decapitating his corpse and displaying his head as a trophy. If Ben's actions at Second Tumbleton are meant to be the opposite of the Riverlords at the 'Butcher's Ball,' it stands to reason that he would honour Daeron's body rather than desecrate it, hence the corpse-caper. Assuming Addam wore armour and Daeron did not, it would be easy enough to excuse this difference by removing the armour to make the corpse lighter for transport; we know Benjicot carried the body from the field, while any other clothes Addam and Daeron would have worn would be tattered and ruined regardless. There's still the risk someone could identify the corpse was not Addam's, and that's where Trombo comes in: as I pointed out in Part Nine regarding the theories about Helaena's death, they all contain grains of truth or evidence of other events regardless of whether one or none of them is true. In the case of Daeron, we can say that he was asleep in his tent when the attack began, and it did catch fire; since he wasn't found in his tent, the unknown man-at-arms theory also rings partially true by having Daeron leave the tent; and it can likewise be true that Trombo struck Daeron in the face with his morningstar, but this was done post-mortem rather than being his cause of death.

Trombo defacing Daeron's corpse to pass him off as Addam would be another solid parallel with Varys and the supposed death of Aegon VI; as Kevan Lannister thinks in the epilogue of ADWD:

The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but the boy … a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore, a few hanks of fair hair. None of us looked long. Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon, and we took him at his word.

Taking Daeron's corpse prevents it from being scavenged or taken by the Greens for their own purposes, while presenting it as Addam allows for both boys to be honoured, Daeron by burial and Addam by memory. That being said, revealing this secret to undercut the 'False Daerons' would not have been a solution, as assuming anyone believed the story it would create serious problems for those that fought and those that died at Second Tumbleton. Not only would Ben and his allies have to admit to lying to the Velaryons and the realm as a whole, acknowledging the bones as Daeron's would reveal that Daeron had flown in the battle, and that Tessarion was not acting alone. If Tessarion was not acting alone, then the two boys clearly made common cause against Vermithor at least, casting doubt on Addam's motivations and in turn the motivations of the Riverlord host. Admitting that the story of loyalty and a bastard's honour was a lie means exposing Addam and all those that followed him to scorn and ridicule, as Jaime experienced for killing Aerys.

We once more see a conflict between doing the right thing or upholding your personal honour and loyalty to your leaders, and that is the through line of Second Tumbleton. Addam fights to protect others rather than out of blind loyalty to Rhaenyra and the need to salvage his honour, winning over Elmo Tully and the Riverlords on this basis and leading them against the Betrayers at Tumbleton. Daeron survives the initial attack and flies up to confront Addam, but they ultimately choose to protect the people around them from Vermithor's wrath and Daeron chooses aiding Addam when he might easily have abandoned the field entirely. They choose the lives of others over loyalty and personal honour, but Cole's death will have taught Benjicot Blackwood and Hugo Vance that making that choice will not lead them to be remembered kindly by the Seven Kingdoms. To protect the memories of those that died at Second Tumbleton and afterwards, Ben and most likely Hugo must downplay or obscure the importance of saving the lives of others, and they must knowingly dishonour themselves and the dead to simultaneously protect the honour of the latter. We've got ourselves some 'human hearts in conflict with themselves' per George's favourite Faulkner quote, as well as a through line connecting Addam's motivations, Daeron's mysterious death, and the aftermath of Second Tumbleton and the Dance itself.

If two young lords keeping a terrible secret at great personal cost also sounds familiar, it's because we have yet another parallel between events and characters of the Dance and those of Robert's Rebellion in particular, in this case between Lords Benjicot Blackwood and Hugo Vance and Lords Eddard Stark and Howland Reed. Leaving aside the testimonies of Jojen and Meera Reed, Howland Reed's character and life are as obscure as Hugo Vance's, and their first names both start with 'H' to boot, while Ben and Ned are excellent foils of one another. Both are capable warriors while being quiet, reserved individuals prone to shyness and awkwardness; both have strong ties to the Old Gods and First Men, and played key roles in the wars of their youth. Much as I've argued for Ben and Hugo, Ned and Howland keep terrible secrets about the wars they've fought, with the Dance ending the dragons while Robert's Rebellion ends Targaryen rule itself. Against the secret of Second Tumbleton, we have the secret of the Tower of Joy: the child Ned brought back from Dorne is neither his nor Ashara Dayne's, but Lyanna's son sired upon her by Rhaegar Targaryen. It's doubtful Lyanna was in love with Rhaegar, but she likely went with him willingly to escape her betrothal to Robert, and this knowledge would call the motivations of Brandon Stark and Robert Baratheon into question. As for Jaime's knowledge, good luck telling the Loyalists that their 'puissant prince' lured away another man's betrothed to father a prophecy baby, while said prince's father wanted to immolate King's Landing to become a dragon! This theme of moral quandary and parallels to Robert's Rebellion are fitting, since George himself has addressed the question of whether or not the rebellion was justified.

viii. "Can We Fix-It?" Part Two: Yi-Ti Drift

If any of my mad ramblings is remotely close to the mark dear reader, I owe George the deepest of apologies. In the previous analysis I suggested that Tumbleton is where the Dance jumps the shark, but my new analysis tells me that it is the pinnacle of the story if not it's saving grace. It is my firm belief that George's themes, inspirations, and writing clues come together with the Second Battle of Tumbleton to produce a brilliant but sadly obscured and overlooked tragedy, which strikes at the very moral underpinnings of the Seven Kingdoms. Whereas Addam and Daeron's sacrifices amidst the winter of 130-136 AC were seemingly in vain, I can only hope right will ultimately prevail with a 'dream of spring.'

This brings us at last to the remaining fix-its for 130 AC, connecting the southern campaign with the war to the north as we discussed in Part Nine. In light of my analysis of Second Tumbleton, the only real 'fix-its' necessary are for the lead-up to the First Battle and some of the circumstances prior to the Second, otherwise I see nothing that needs changing. While the changes we made in Part Nine would create some butterflies for the Second Tumbleton plot as we discussed above, in particular the Riverlands campaign, I'm saving that for the series' conclusion when we can put together a comprehensive timeline of the Dance. That ensures that the finale won't simply be restating previous points from the strategy installments, but will actually have something to say about how we can integrate George's themes and plot beats with more effective set-ups for the plot of the Dance itself.

In keeping with our timeline alterations from Part Nine, ITTL the Battle of the Honeywine takes place on February 3rd, almost a month after the Battle of the Gullet IOTL, while at least the grain harvest of the Reach takes place in February-March. With Costayne, the 'Two Alans,' and presumably the Mullendores subdued while the Rowan and Caswell forces retreat north, Ormund uses this period as an 'operational pause' for his army. Men are sent to assist with the harvest, negotiations lead to the submission of Old Oak, Goldengrove, and the Shield Isles, and the Hightower and Redwyne fleets move men, supplies, and other necessities northwest to the Lower Mander in preparation for the advance north and likewise prepare to move north against the Ironborn if necessary. Counting on riverine transport combined with requisition and forage to sustain his army, Ormund leads his army along the left or southern bank of the Mander ITTL rather than the meandering course of OTL. The advance up the Mander takes place in April and May ITTL instead of March and April as IOTL, with Ormund following the Roseroad before cutting around neutral Highgarden and proceeding north towards Cider Hall, where Lord Owen Fossoway makes common cause with the Greens and the army crosses the Cockleswhent. Reliance on the Mander and local roads means the siege of Longtable actually makes sense ITTL, since the fortifications would be a challenge to Tessarion while it's garrison can threaten road and river traffic.

Ormund's progress upriver needs to be spaced out more effectively given the time it takes to reach Tumbleton from Bitterbridge, and allowing the weather to actually affect the story is as good a solution as any. Since it's late autumn/early winter, runoff from western hills, Red Mountains, and Tumbleton combined with seasonal rain would impede Ormund's advance, requiring him to wait for roads to dry and water levels to subside, as well as hampering Daeron and Tessarion's operations. The Blacks in the Reach are able to mount some resistance at Longtable and positions further north, but the Hightower army's advance is inexorable and Daeron is able tom prove his effectiveness as a scout when given the chance. The weather also allows us to get around a problem with the Bitterbridge plot, namely that Rickard Thorne's journey brings Maelor deep into Black territory in the Reach and along the main road that their armies would use. He actively endangers Maelor by doing this even though the story is unaware of this problem; since Thorne is a Stormlander and doesn't know the route Willis Fell and Jaehaera are using, there's no real reason he could not have traveled through friendly territory in the Stormlands and then followed the Blueburn or Cockleswhent to link up with Daeron and Ormund in the south. ITTL the weather can force him to stick to the royal roads and seek out towns for quarters, lest Maelor take ill from the cooler, wet conditions, and so explaining why he would travel to Bitterbridge in the first place.

Events from the siege of Longtable to just prior to the First Battle of Tumbleton can remain largely the same, with the battle taking place at the end of May instead of April like IOTL. As we suggested in Part Nine, the Blackwater men and the remnants of the 'winter wolves' are sent by Daemon to reinforce Tumbleton alongside the Black Reacher forces there, while Valemen and Manderly troops arrive from King's Landing rather than the Riverlord host from the 'Fish Feed' and 'Butcher's Ball' as IOTL. The first battle can be made better by having it take place down river from the town itself, allowing the Betrayers to annihilate the Blacks with fire without destroying Tumbleton itself and ruling out the sack. A more offensive posture by the Blacks can be justified by acknowledging the uncertain qualities and loyalties of large segments of Ormund's host; when the day of battle arrives, Tessarion can sense the presence of Silverwing and Vermithor and Daeron is forced to search the clouds above to avoid an ambush, while the 'winter wolves' exploit a gap in the Hightower army's center mid-battle to charge Ormund's banners, killing Ormund and Bryndon as IOTL. With the Black host fully committed to battle and eager to secure victory, Ulf and Hugh enact a second 'Field of Fire' and immolate their erstwhile allies. Making common cause with Daeron and the Hightower army's leadership in the aftermath of the battle, they lead the host to Tumbleton and sack the town aided by Owain Bourney and Roger Corne's treachery.

From here the only real issue are the command crisis and the pause, though the former can be accounted for ITTL by focusing on Daeron and the Betrayers from the start, with many of the army's unreliable elements flocking to the Betrayers and dividing the Hightower host. The better logistical system of the Hightower army somewhat mitigates the problems of the pause, but over a month is still to long for the army to spend in one place, especially with the weather issues we've incorporated into the story. Cutting down the time between First and Second Tumbleton is a solution, albeit an imperfect one: if we cut Daemon's time at Harrenhal in half and have Addam make for Riverrun immediately after his flight to seek refuge with a neutral party, Daemon and Aemond's deaths can take place much earlier and allow Addam to act without their interference. ITTL the Riverlords have a better logistical system and are still mobilized against Aemond's allies; if we allow the Tullys to have mobilized their own sworn swords and bannermen before hand in case the Westerlands army fails to respect their neutrality, then Addam and Elmo Tully can rally their army more quickly and reach Tumbleton by following the Blackwater Rush and the Gold Road before turning south. In light of my analysis of Second Tumbleton, I see no need to alter the battle itself in any major way, though as stated we will address some of the outstanding problems at the end of the series.

If you've made it this far, I commend you for your efforts and thank you for reading this series; I also hope you found the Second Tumbleton analysis interesting and informative, and that it encourages you to give the story a second look. That wraps up our coverage of strategy in the first half of 130 AC, and there's only two parts left for this analysis; stay tuned for Part Eleven, "Strategy in the Dance, Part 3!"

#tbr

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