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Poco pan y mucho circo ¿A dónde lleva la Constitución “Madurista”05/2017 Autor:Anna Ayuso, investigadora sénior, CIDOB y Susanne Gratius, investigadora asociada, CIDOB

Los al menos 35 muertos en las protestas de los últimos días en Venezuela son prueba de la creciente crispación política y social en un país dividido, empobrecido, violento y en colapso económico. Con el país en llamas y un descontento generalizado, el presidente Nicolás Maduro sorprendió el 1 de mayo con el anuncio de convocar una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente para redactar una nueva Carta Magna. Ésta sustituiría la Constitución de 1999, herencia de Hugo Chavez quien, ante la incapacidad de superar la crisis económica y social, se aferró a este texto como principal fuente de legitimidad.

Recordando el precedente de la única derrota electoral de Chávez en 2007, cuando pretendió eternizarse en el poder y convertir Venezuela en un país autoritario por referéndum, la apuesta de Maduro puede ser muy arriesgada para el régimen en un clima mucho más crispado que entonces. Con esta medida pretende sobre todo distraer a los suyos en una nueva movilización constante (circo en vez de pan) y ningunear a la Asamblea Nacional, dominada por la oposición, después del torpe intento de cerrarla directamente a través de una sentencia del Tribunal Supremo. Con su maniobra de inhabilitar al Parlamento, el Gobierno subestimó la firme reacción de la comunidad internacional, incluyendo la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA) y la Unión Europea.

Ahora trata de nuevo de boicotear la Asamblea Nacional convocando una Asamblea Constituyente paralela escogida entre sus afines, ignorando el poder legislativo vigente. Para ello, Maduro invoca el artículo 347 del Capítulo III del Título IX en la vigente Constitución que señala “el pueblo de Venezuela es el depositario del poder constituyente originario”. Según el artículo 348, el Presidente de la República en Consejo de Ministros puede tomar la iniciativa, al igual que la Asamblea General por acuerdo de dos terceras partes, los Consejos Municipales en Cabildos y el 15 por ciento de los electores inscritos en el registro. Lo que no explica la Constitución es cómo se debe constituir esa Asamblea Constituyente, pero no puede sustraerse al sufragio universal.

Mientras la oposición acusaba al Presidente de golpista, Maduro anunció que la Constituyente estará integrada por 500 miembros del pueblo, la mitad por miembros de la “clase obrera” y la otra por miembros de las comunidades locales. Sin embargo, los temores son que esté íntegramente compuesta por las bases chavistas y con ellas se transforme la estructura institucional democrática pluripartidista y con elección directa, universal y secreta, en un sistema de cooptación no competitivo, de partido único, que acabe con todo vestigio del modelo de democracia liberal con división de poderes. Con esto en mente, la oposición no acudió a la invitación de diálogo del Presidente.

Creciente aislamiento regional y giro de política exterior

La degradación institucional, la deriva autoritaria y el número de presos políticos ha conducido a un creciente rechazo al gobierno de Maduro en la región. La escalada de la tensión con el Secretario General de la OEA, el uruguayo Luís Almagro, llevó al gobierno de Maduro a solicitar la salida de la organización para evitar ser expulsado a través de la puesta en marcha del artículo 9, que exige una mayoría de dos tercios de los miembros de la Asamblea General y la aplicación inminente de la Carta Democrática Interamericana. Ya antes, los cambios de gobierno en Argentina y Brasil llevaron a su suspensión de MERCOSUR por incumplimiento de los acuerdos. Los reequilibrios de poder en la región también propiciaron que la convocatoria de la Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños (CELAC) del 2 de mayo, solicitada por Venezuela para buscar respaldo, acabara sin ninguna resolución.

Entre tanto, Venezuela trata de encontrar alternativas. En abril de 2017, el influyente ministro de Defensa, Vladimir Padrino López, participó en una conferencia de seguridad internacional en Rusia buscando el apoyo de Putin, que ya ha concedido varios créditos a la empresa petrolera PDVSA y envía armas ligeras. China también concedió en 2015 un préstamo de 10.000 millones de dólares al Estado venezolano para refinanciar la deuda y modernizar PDVSA. En total, Venezuela ha recibido unos 65.000 millones de dólares de China, algo más de la mitad de toda la inversión del país asiático en América Latina. Venezuela también ha diversificado su comercio exterior. Aunque en 2016, Estados Unidos siguió representando un 29% del total del comercio venezolano, con un 14%, China ya es su segundo socio y la India con un 10% el tercero, seguido en cuarto lugar por una Unión Europea que, con poco más del 6%, no tiene un peso relevante. Venezuela apenas recibe cooperación al desarrollo lo cual reduce los instrumentos de Europa y Estados Unidos para “sancionar” económicamente o influir políticamente. De este modo, la Revolución Bolivariana ha modificado los fundamentos de una política exterior antes orientada hacia el mundo Atlántico.

La transición hacia el desastre y el autoritarismo ¿Sin salida del laberinto?

Venezuela muestra cómo se puede transitar, con los instrumentos de la democracia, hacia un autoritarismo pretendidamente legitimado por un nada transparente proceso de participación ciudadana. La espiral de violencia y la transición a la inversa que tienen lugar en Venezuela son el resultado de muchos años de mal gobierno. La Presidencia de Nicolás Maduro ha quedado tan debilitada que, tras bloquear el referéndum revocatorio mediante el control de la autoridad electoral, ya no quiere convocar ni las elecciones regionales previstas en diciembre de 2016, ni las municipales de 2017 porque sabe que las va a perder. En su lugar convoca la Constituyente para ganar un tiempo que le permita llegar a las presidenciales de 2018 con una nueva Constitución a su medida.

Todos los intentos de la OEA, de UNASUR y del Vaticano de encontrar una salida negociada al conflicto fracasaron ante la imposibilidad de tender puentes entre Gobierno y oposición, enrocados en posturas irreconciliables. La dramática situación en Venezuela contrasta con dos fenómenos difíciles de asociar con la actual imagen de un país en emergencia. Primero, la sólida convicción democrática de sus ciudadanos que aparece en las encuestas del Latinobarómetro donde alcanzan los índices más altos en la valoración de la democracia. Segundo, es el único país latinoamericano cuyas reservas petroleras deberían garantizar una cierta riqueza, o al menos evitar el hambre y la pobreza, lo cual abona la teoría de la maldición de los recursos si no son administrados con responsabilidad.

La hiperinflación, por encima del 1000%, generada por la estrategia de imprimir dinero y multiplicar los salarios mínimos, ha terminado con los avances sociales que había logrado el chavismo cuando llovían los petrodólares. Venezuela sufre el drama de depender en un 90% del oro negro, pero también de la incapacidad de sus gobernantes, con niveles históricos de corrupción. Ante una recesión del -8%, una deuda externa del 69% del PIB y un déficit público ya incalculable parece puro cinismo que Nicolás Maduro plantee con su nueva Constitución crear un “Estado post-petrolero” o institucionalizar las Misiones (programas sociales con ayuda cubana) de las que poco queda en un Estado en bancarrota.

La absoluta falta de voluntad y capacidad de negociar para resolver los gravísimos problemas ha hecho que se prolongue el cada vez más violento tira y afloja entre gobierno y oposición. El general Padrino dice que las Fuerzas Armadas, con 180.000 efectivos, defenderán la Constitución y no ve ruptura democrática en el proceso constituyente. También afirma tener bajo control a 400.000 milicianos armados civiles, al tiempo que tacha de insurrectos a los manifestantes. Si se les roba el voto, se acrecienta el riesgo de implosión violenta y de una escalada de represión. Cuanto más se ahonde en la fractura política y social más difícil será salir del pozo negro en el que se encuentra el país, y cuyas consecuencias sufren los ciudadanos.

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Ukraine Conflict Monitor, March 14-21, 2017

Ukraine 101:

Ukraine's richest man Rinat Akhmetov doubled his wealth in 2016, to $4.6 billion, according to Forbes. (Kyiv Post, 03.21.17)

West’s leverage over Russia:

The European Union has extended for six months sanctions against 150 Russia-linked people over the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The blacklist includes Russian politicians, businessmen and law-enforcement officials, as well as former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and senior members of his administration and the leadership of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR). All individuals mentioned in the list are not allowed to enter the European Union, while their assets in European banks are to be frozen. The regulation came into force on March 15 and is set to expire on Sept. 15, 2017, according to the Official Journal of the European Union. (TASS, 03.15.17, AP, 03.13.17)

Russia’s leverage over West:

Bulgaria’s United Patriots, a nationalist coalition that’s poised to hold the balance of power after this month’s snap election, would seek to end European Union sanctions against Russia if it makes it into government. (Bloomberg, 03.14.17)

Russia’s leverage over Ukraine:

Russia is not giving special treatment to holders of passports from two Ukrainian breakaway republics, despite the Kremlin’s partial recognition of the regions, the news website RBC has reported. Holders of the passports are allowed to stay in Russia for 90 days visa-free. They are then obligated to leave the country or obtain a residence permit like any other Ukrainian citizen. (The Moscow Times, 03.20.17)

The Russian arm of Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International is preparing to offer services to holders of passports from two self-proclaimed republics in rebel-held eastern Ukraine, its boss said on March 16. (Reuters, 03.16.17)

Casualties and costs for Russia, West and Ukraine:

At least 9,940 people have been killed in the conflict between government forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine since it erupted in mid-April 2014, the Office of the U.N.'s High Commissioner for Human Rights said on March 15. (RFE/RL, 03.16.17)

Russian citizens lose about 4,380 rubles ($75) annually because of Russian counter-sanctions, according to research by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Service and the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade. (RBTH, 03.21.17)

Ukraine’s National Security Council has ruled to halt all cargo traffic passing between government-held areas and the separatist-controlled regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Council Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov said that traffic would remain blocked until the Russian-backed separatists cede control of coal mines in Donbas and fulfill their part of the 2015 Minsk agreement. (The Moscow Times, 03.15.17)

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has imposed sanctions on five banks with Russian capital functioning in Ukraine. A statement on the presidential website on March 16 said that Poroshenko signed a decree introducing sanctions on Sberbank, VS Bank, Prominvestbank, VTB Bank and BM Bank for a one-year period. (RFE/RL, 03.16.17)

The National Bank of Ukraine says it has slashed its estimate for economic growth in 2017 to 1.9% from the 2.8% predicted in January due to the blockade. (AP, 03.21.17)

Russia accused Ukraine of “consciously” rejecting its own land and people by imposing a blockade of separatist-held territory in the country’s east. (Bloomberg, 03.17.17)

Ukrainian opposition lawmakers have demanded an explanation from authorities after the arrests of several dozen activists who were blocking trade with eastern areas held by Russia-backed separatists. Ukraine's main security agency, the SBU, said that it arrested 43 "blockader" activists at three sites on March 13 after they refused to surrender weapons. (RFE/RL, 03.14.17)

Russia's biggest bank Sberbank is looking "very actively" at options for a quick exit from Ukraine, the bank's chief executive German Gref said on March 21. Gref also told reporters that Sberbank's loan-loss provisions in Ukraine made up around 70% of its potential losses. (Reuters, 03.21.17)

Impact of Russia’s actions vis-à-vis Ukraine on other countries:

The biggest beneficiary in President U.S. Donald Trump's budget—the Defense Department—released a broad wish list on March 16, signaling what it would do with its proposed $54 billion windfall. ''Russia and China continue to rise and assert themselves, often in a destabilizing fashion or at the expense of U.S. interests,'' the Defense Department budget request says, explaining why the U.S. military needs more money for readiness. (New York Times, 03.16.17)

The Swedish government and part of its political opposition agreed on March 13 to boost defense spending by 500 million crowns ($55.7 million) this year to bolster military capabilities in the face of growing security concerns in the region. (Reuters, 03.13.17)

The German government has presented a draft law that would impose fines of up to 50 million euros on social networks that fail to delete hate speech or fake news, in what amounts to the most draconian clampdown by a European country against internet platforms such as Facebook and Twitter. (Financial Times, 03.14.17)

Russia’s state-run TV network Channel One issued a mocking response to a NATO effort to analyze comedy shows on Russian television as examples of “strategic communication,” a term often invoked as a euphemism for propaganda. One show, “KVN,” was singled out by NATO as an exemplar of state-run efforts to use comedy to manipulate public opinion. (The Moscow Times, 03.16.17)

Red lines and tripwires:

A U.S.-led battalion of more than 1,100 soldiers will be deployed in Poland from the start of April, a U.S. commander said on March 20, as NATO sets up a new force in response to Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea. More than 900 U.S. soldiers, around 150 British personnel and some 120 Romanian troops will make up the battlegroup in northeastern Poland, one of four multinational formations across the Baltic region. Russia has condemned the deployment as an aggressive strategy on its frontiers. (Reuters, 03.20.17)

Factors and scenarios that could cause resumption of large-scale hostilities or lead to accidents between Western and Russian forces in Europe:

Two Ukrainian marines were killed and seven wounded on March 20 in a fierce attack by Russian-backed forces near the frontline village of Vodyane, some 10 kilometers east of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast. According to official statement published by Ukraine’s military press center, the army’s positions were attacked by an enemy sabotage unit. According to Gazeta.ru sources among Donbas separatists, however, it was two platoons of Ukrainian marines that tried to advance at Vodyane, losing up to 15 servicemen in action. (Kyiv Post, 03.20.17, Russia Matters, 03.20.17)

Russia has been building up its armed forces along the Ukrainian border and is in the process of establishing four new divisions: the 150th Motorized Rifle Division in the Rostov region, the 10th Armored Division and the 3rd Mechanized Division in the Voronezh region and the 144th Motorized Rifle Division near Smolensk. They will be headquartered 50, 45 and 255 kilometers from the border, respectively. In addition, the headquarters of the Russian 20th Army has been moved closer to Ukraine—from its former base east of Moscow to Voronezh. A new 8th Army headquarters is being established in the Rostov region. And three motorized rifle brigades that were previously located deep inside Russian territory, near Kazakhstan and in the Volga basin—the 9th, 23rd and 28th—are also being shifted westward. They will be based in the Belgorod, Bryansk and Voronezh regions, all less than 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. (Eurasianet, 03.20.17)

Russia has launched unprecedented land, air and sea drills in annexed Crimea in a coordinated training exercise involving thousands of troops. The action is billed as significant by the military as it is said to be the first time in the history of the Russian army that three large airborne units have been “simultaneously alerted.” (Independent, 03.20.17)

Arming and training of Ukrainian forces by Western countries:

No significant developments.

Strategies and actions recommended:

No significant developments.

Analysis:

Richard Sokolsky, a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, writes: “The new standoff between NATO and Russia may become the new normal, but the relationship is unlikely to be stable and is rife with possibilities for miscalculation. The more NATO and Russia escalate and counter escalate with military responses that the other sees as hostile, the greater the chance of a conflict due to an accident, miscalculation, or military incident that spins out of control. …The escalation of a local war over a small parcel of Baltic territory to a regional, or even theater-wide, conflict would likely result in a Russian defeat unless Moscow was successful in threatening or using nuclear strikes to cow NATO into submission.” (Task Force on U.S. Policy toward Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, 03.13.17)

Other important news:

European security watchdog OSCE on March 16 prolonged its monitoring mission to Ukraine by one year until March 2018. OSCE monitors recorded more ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions between the evenings of March 17 and 18 compared with the previous reporting period, but fewer ceasefire violations in both between the evenings of March 18 and 19 compared with the previous 24 hours. (Reuters, 03.16.17, OSCE, 03.20.17)

The European Parliament is calling on Moscow to free more than 30 Ukrainian citizens who are in prison or other conditions of restricted freedom in Russia, Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine that are controlled by Russia-backed separatists. (RFE/RL, 03.16.17)

Ukraine is developing a new indigenous lightweight fighter aircraft, according to a new report. However, the project has existed in some form for more than 10 years. (National Interest, 03.21.17)

Ukrainian lawmakers have approved a bill that requires national television and radio stations to have at least 75% of their programming in the Ukrainian language. (RFE/RL, 03.17.17)

Russia marked a low-key third anniversary of the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, as Kiev blasted the annexation of the strategic Black Sea peninsula as a “crime.” State-run television showed footage of sparsely attended concerts and parades in cities across the country and there was much less fanfare over the event than in previous years. (AFP, 03.18.17)

The White House announced nominees for six senior Pentagon jobs on March 16. David Joel Trachtenberg, nominated for the No. 2 policy job, penned a December 2015 commentary saying the Obama administration failed to adapt to a changing reality with Russia following its annexation of Crimea, incursions into eastern Ukraine and more aggressive military exercises. (AP, 03.16.17, Defense News, 03.16.17)

The European Commission agreed on March 16 to send Ukraine 600 million euros ($643.2 million) to help its finances, ending months of delays over EU conditions linked to the loan. (Reuters, 03.16.17)

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will travel to Russia next month, a week after a NATO summit meeting that he is skipping, State Department officials said Monday. (AP, 03.21.17)

Ukrainian lawmaker Serhiy Leshchenko on March 21 released new financial documents allegedly showing that President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, laundered payments from the party of disgraced ex-leader of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych using offshore accounts in Belize and Kyrgyzstan. (Washington Post, 03.21.17)

The European Union on March 17 condemned Russia’s seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea territory, calling Moscow’s annexation of the Black Sea peninsula a “direct challenge to international security.” (RFE/RL, 03.17.17)

The United States on March 16 issued a sharp condemnation of Russia’s seizure of Crimea and the referendum that Moscow staged there and later held up as justification for the annexation. (RFE/RL, 03.16.17)

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Russia Matters

Russia in Review, Feb. 24-March 3, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

Russia will support the candidacy of Yukiya Amano for his re-election as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA Board of Governors is expected to address Amano's re-election next week. (Interfax, 03.01.17)

Michael Anton, a senior official on U.S. President Donald Trump's embattled National Security Council, wrote in the public discussion forum of a men's fashion website that it is "inevitable" that an Islamic terrorist group will carry out a successful nuclear attack against the United States, and that in its aftermath the world "will regress hundreds of years politically." (Bioterrorism Week, 02.27.17, Intercept, 02.16.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

Iran's official stock of enriched uranium has fallen by half after large amounts stuck in pipes have been recategorized as unrecoverable under a process agreed with major powers, the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Feb. 24. (Reuters, 02.24.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

U.S. President Donald Trump will propose a federal budget that would significantly increase defense-related spending by $54 billion while cutting other federal agencies by the same amount, an administration official said. The State Department's budget could be slashed by as much as 30%. The Kremlin says that U.S. plans to boost defense spending will not affect Russia unless they change the "strategic balances" between the former Cold War foes. In the meantime, U.S. lawmakers on March 2 unveiled a $578 billion spending bill to keep the U.S. armed forces operating through September. (The Washington Post, 02.27.17, RFE/RL, 02.27.17, RFE/RL, 03.02.17, VOA, 03.02.17)

The Russian Defense Ministry says the nation’s top military officer has spoken to his NATO counterpart for the first time in several years. The ministry said Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, had a phone call March 3 with Czech Army Gen. Petr Pavel, the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee. (AP, 03.03.17)

British Vice Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. Gordon Messenger met Gen. Alexander Zhuravlev, the deputy chief of Russia's general staff, and discussed how best to prevent accidents and other incidents involving the two countries' militaries, the news agency said. (Reuters, 02.28.17)

The U.S. Army's top European commander on March 1 called on Russia to open to observers its major military exercise later this year to assuage the anxieties of its neighbors. Russia has unveiled plans to stage its Zapad 2017 exercise near its western borders this autumn but has not said how many troops will take part. (Reuters, 03.01.17)

NATO cannot deter Russia alone and must formulate a “grand strategy” for security in Europe with the EU, the alliance’s highest-ranking operational European officer has warned. “The threat from Russia is that through opportunism and mistakes and a lack of clarity regarding our deterrence, we find ourselves sliding into an unwanted conflict which has existential implications,” said Sir Adrian Bradshaw, a British general and NATO’s deputy supreme allied commander. (Financial Times, 03.02.17)

Britain is not Russia’s enemy, and should stop accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of war crimes in Syria, a committee of Britain’s parliament members have said, effectively calling for a reappraisal of relations with Moscow. Members of parliament from the foreign affairs committee said greater engagement was needed and criticized British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s Foreign Office for appearing “not to know what it wants.” (Financial Times, 03.01.17)

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel on March 2 criticized Russia's military build-up on Russia’s borders with the Baltic States as irrational and said Germany would keep troops in the region for as long as needed. Gabriel visited about 400 German soldiers stationed in Rukla, Lithuania. (Reuters, 03.02.17)

Pro-Russian opposition leaders in Montenegro have asked the White House chief strategist to help block the Balkan country’s NATO bid. Two opposition officials wrote in a letter to Steve Bannon, a senior adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, that the U.S. Senate should vote against the accession. The vote has been stalled because of objections by two senators. (AP, 03.03.17)

European Union states will take the formal decision on March 6 to create a joint command center for the bloc's military missions, a symbolic step in the renewed quest for more security and defense cooperation, officials and diplomats in Brussels said. (Reuters, 03.03.17)

Missile defense:

China and Russia have agreed to intensify their coordinated opposition to the deployment of a U.S. missile-defense system in South Korea, the Chinese foreign ministry said on March 1. (Reuters, 03.01.17)

Nuclear arms control:

"Trump's campaign slogan 'Make America great again', if that means nuclear supremacy, will return the world to the worst times of the arms race in the '50s and '60s," said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the international affairs committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament. (Reuters, 02.24.17)

Counter-terrorism:

U.S. lawmakers on March 2 unveiled a defense bill that provides $980 million to train and equip foreign forces to combat the Islamic State extremist group. (VOA, 03.02.17)

During his first speech as president to a joint session of Congress, U.S. President Trump said his administration is “taking steps to protect our nation from radical Islamic terrorism.” Even after his national security adviser asked him to avoid using the term during his speech to Congress, Trump didn't hesitate in uttering those three words. (The Washington Post, 02.28.17)

Conflict in Syria:

Russia is urging U.S. President Donald Trump to help it resolve conflicts in Syria and Libya, where the Kremlin is finding it tough going after seizing the initiative in a bid to act as a leading power in the region. “We would like to see an active U.S. role” in Syria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said in an interview in Geneva. “The United States is one of the most important players here.” (Bloomberg, 03.03.17)

There have been no substantial contacts between Russia and the new U.S. administration on the Syrian issue, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on March 3. "There have been no real progress in cooperation in combating terrorism, either, which causes regret," Peskov said noting that this "is probably so because the work [is] only beginning." (TASS, 03.03.17)

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin urged U.S. President Donald Trump to make good on his pledge to mount a joint fight against Islamic State in Syria. “Enough talk about it,” Fomin said. (Bloomberg, 03.01.17)

Russia has not discussed Western sanctions imposed on Moscow with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, and has not asked Washington to repeal them, Russian news agencies cited Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Feb. 28. But Ryabkov said it would be easier for Russia to work with the U.S. on the crisis in Syria if sanctions were lifted. (Reuters, 02.28.17)

U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis on Feb. 27 gave the White House a plan to “rapidly defeat” the Islamic State group, a Pentagon spokesman said. The strategy includes significant elements of the approach President Donald Trump inherited, while potentially deepening U.S. military involvement in Syria. (AP, 02.27.17)

Syrian army units were clearing land mines and explosives left behind by Islamic State militants in the historic town of Palmyra on March 3, a day after government troops and allied militiamen recaptured it from the extremists, a Syrian security official said. The Kremlin's spokesman said Russian President Vladimir Putin was informed by his defense minister that Syrian troops had gained control of Palmyra, with support from Russian warplanes. (AP, 03.02.17, AP, 03.03.17)

The Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich left the port of Sevastopol in Crimea on Feb. 27 for the Mediterranean where it will join the country's naval forces deployed near the Syrian coast, a naval official said. (Reuters, 02.27.17)

Maj. Gen. Peter Melugin, head of the department for combat training at the headquarters of Russia’s Western military district, was seriously injured during the battle for Palmyra in Syria. (RBTH, 03.07.17)

The Syrian Air Force deliberately bombed a United Nations humanitarian aid convoy in September in what appeared to be a “meticulously planned” attack that amounted to a war crime, United Nations investigators said on March 1 in a report detailing a range of war crimes committed by forces on both sides of the conflict. (New York Times, 03.01.17)

The U.S. commander of coalition forces in Iraq and Syria says a Russian air strike in northern Syria accidently struck U.S.-backed Syrian Arab forces who are part of the fight against so-called Islamic State militants. Russia’s Defense Ministry said "neither Syrian nor Russian aviation delivered strikes against areas designated by the U.S. side" as locations of pro-U.S. opposition forces. (RFE/RL, 03.01.17)

Syria peace talks in Geneva showed a first flicker of movement on March 1, as the opposition said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's negotiators had been pushed by his Russian allies to address for the first time opposition demands for a political transition. Six days of U.N.-led talks, the first in nearly 10 months, have focused almost entirely on how to arrange more substantive talks in later rounds. (Reuters, 03.01.17)

Jaish al-Islam, the main opposition group at Syrian peace talks in Geneva, said last week it wants to meet Russian envoys to discuss what it says are Moscow's broken ceasefire promises, a move diplomats say aims to put pressure on the Russian-backed Syrian government delegation. (Reuters, 02.27.17)

Syrian peace talks involving the armed opposition and Russia, Iran and Turkey are scheduled to take place in Kazakhstan on March 14, Russian news agencies reported on March 1, citing a source close to the talks. (Reuters, 03.01.17)

Russia is struggling to salvage its bid to secure a deal to end six years of civil war in Syria as deepening differences with Iran risk a repeat of previous failed peace efforts led by the U.S. “Things aren’t going as smoothly as we would want” in the Geneva talks, President Vladimir Putin told reporters Feb. 28 during a visit to Kyrgyzstan. (Bloomberg, 02.28.17)

Russia and China have blocked a push by Western governments at the United Nations to punish the Syrian government over chemical weapons attacks, the latest in a string of vetoes by Moscow and Beijing on resolutions about the six-year-old conflict. New U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley directly confronted Russia and China over their positions, saying they were taking an indefensible stance by putting the protection of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime ahead of global security. (RFE/RL, 02.28.17, Wall Street Journal, 02.28.17)

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Russia’s alleged interference in U.S. elections:

U.S. House of Representatives lawmakers have come to a bipartisan agreement on the scope of a congressional probe into possible Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The House Intelligence Committee said March 1 that it would examine the extent of the Russian cyber activity directed at the U.S., as well as the U.S. government response to those attempted intrusions. (Wall Street Journal, 03.02.17)

Congressional Republicans, straining to defend the Trump administration amid investigations of Russian interference in the 2016 election, resisted growing calls on March 2 for a special prosecutor or select congressional committee to review the matter, even as Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself from any inquiry. None of the Republicans joined the chorus of Democrats, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), demanding Sessions's immediate resignation. (New York Times, 03.02.17)

Top U.S. Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer joined House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in calling March 2 for Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ resignation after the government confirmed he met with Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. while serving as a prominent surrogate for U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign. However, U.S. House of Representatives’ Republican Speaker Paul Ryan said on March 2 he saw no reason for Sessions to recuse himself from investigations into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. Sessions denied he had met with “any Russian officials to discuss issues of the campaign. I have no idea what this allegation is about. It is false,” he said. (Bloomberg, 03.02.17, The Washington Post, 03.02.17, Reuters, 03.02.17)

The U.S. Justice Department confirmed March 1 that Attorney General Jeff Sessions spoke twice last year with Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak while serving as a prominent supporter and adviser to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, but said it was as a senator and member of the Armed Services Committee. One contact was at the Republican National Convention in July in Cleveland and the second was at Sessions’ office in Washington. (Bloomberg, 03.03.17)

Attorney General Jeff Sessions told Fox News that he did not know whether Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government favored Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton during the presidential campaign. (The Washington Post, 03.03.17)

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), an early supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump's whose district narrowly voted for Hillary Clinton last year, said over the weekend that the Justice Department should consider appointing a special counsel to probe any links between the Kremlin and Trump associates. (Wall Street Journal, 02.26.17)

Russia's ambassador to the United States met with a number of aides to U.S. President Donald Trump during the election campaign last year besides current Attorney General Jeff Sessions, including Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, the White House and U.S. media reports said on March 2. Carter Page, a former foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign, spoke with Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak at the same Heritage Foundation event where Sessions spoke to the ambassador last summer. Also, Trump's eldest son Donald Trump, Jr. was likely paid at least $50,000 for an appearance late last year before the Center of Political and Foreign, a French think tank whose founder and wife are allies of the Russian government in efforts to end the war in Syria. (Wall Street Journal, 03.02.17, RFE/RL, 03.02.17)

The White House acknowledged Feb. 24 that its chief of staff asked senior officials at the FBI to publicly refute a news report alleging repeated contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence officials, after it said the FBI told him the story was inaccurate. (Wall Street Journal, 02.24.17)

Republicans on Feb. 28 stifled a Democratic attempt to force the Justice Department to produce records related to its investigation of whether U.S. President Donald Trump and his campaign had secret ties to Russia. A powerful GOP committee chairman said, however, that he would urge federal authorities to continue their probe. (The Washington Post, 02.28.17)

White House lawyers have instructed the president’s aides to preserve materials that could be connected to Russian interference in the 2016 election and other related investigations, three administration officials said March 1. (AP, 03.02.17)

U.S. Democrats are charging that FBI Director James Comey declined to divulge all he knew about the agency's investigation into Russian meddling in the U.S. election at a closed-door meeting with the House Intelligence Committee. (RFE/RL, 03.02.17)

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is asking the Treasury Department to evaluate whether U.S. President Donald Trump and his family’s business associates and possible investors from Russia and other countries have violated U.S. laws against financing terrorism, money laundering and other illicit activities. (AP, 03.02.17)

In the Obama administration’s last days, some White House officials scrambled to spread information about Russian efforts to undermine the presidential election—and about possible contacts between associates of President-elect Donald Trump and Russians—across the government. Former American officials say they had two aims: to ensure that such meddling isn’t duplicated in future American or European elections, and to leave a clear trail of intelligence for government investigators. (New York Times. 03.01.17)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has harshly criticized the current focus on U.S. officials' contacts with the Russian ambassador in Washington, describing the situation as a "witch hunt." He said that “all this is very much reminiscent of a witch hunt and the McCarthyism era, which we all thought was long gone.” (The Washington Post, 03.03.17, The Moscow Times, 03.03.17)

A Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said March 2 there was nothing extraordinary in its U.S. ambassador's contacts with officials in Washington during the U.S. presidential campaign last year. "If our diplomats are meeting with U.S. officials, it means they are working," said Maria Zakharova. (Wall Street Journal, 03.02.17)

Former U.S. President George W. Bush said Feb. 27 “we all need answers” on the extent of contact between President Donald Trump’s team and the Russian government, and didn’t rule out the idea that a special prosecutor could be necessary to lead an investigation. (AP, 02.27.17)

Former CIA Director John Brennan called for congressional committees looking into the possibility of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election to “pursue this investigation with vigor and with the appropriate amount of bipartisan support.” (Bloomberg, 02.26.17)

The former British spy who authored a controversial dossier on behalf of U.S. President Donald Trump’s political opponents alleging ties between Trump and Russia reached an agreement with the FBI a few weeks before the election for the bureau to pay him to continue his work, according to several people familiar with the arrangement. (The Washington Post, 02.28.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

Oil prices fell nearly 2% on March 2 after Russian oil production remained unchanged at 11.11 million barrels per day in February, showing weak compliance with a global deal to curb supply to tighten the oversupplied market. At the same time, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak claimed that Russia may cut oil production as part of an OPEC-led agreement designed to boost prices faster than it had previously expected. (Reuters, 03.02.17, Reuters, 02.27.17)

Europe has wanted to wean itself from Russian natural gas since supplies from its eastern neighbor dropped during freezing weather in 2009. Almost a decade later, the region has never been more dependent. Gazprom shipped a record amount of gas to the European Union last year and accounts for about 34% of the EU’s use of the fuel. Russia will remain the biggest source of supply through 2035, Royal Dutch Shell Plc said. (Bloomberg, 02.28.17)

Chinese imports of Russian oil rose 36.5% in January 2017 from January 2016 to the equivalent of 1.08 million barrels per day (bpd), while those from Angola surged 63.5% to 1.16 million bpd. (Reuters, 02.27.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

A top Russian diplomat said Feb. 28 that preparations have started for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, amid growing questions in Washington about contacts between associates of the president and the Kremlin. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said there had been "no agreement yet as to the time and place of such a meeting, but practical preparations have been started," Russian news agencies reported. (Wall Street Journal, 02.28.17)

Russia has said it is waiting with "patience" for indications about the future course of Washington's policy toward Moscow. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, told reporters on March 1 that the Kremlin has "heard different statements from President [Donald] Trump." (RFE/RL, 03.01.17)

“There wasn’t a word about Russia,” Konstantin Kosachyov, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the upper house of the Russian parliament, said regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s first address to Congress. “What’s behind that isn’t clear yet.” Trump didn’t mention Russia or Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Feb. 28 speech, even as he declared that the U.S. is “willing to find new friends, and to forge new partnerships, where shared interests align.” (Bloomberg, 03.01.17)

U.S. President Donald Trump is moving to name Fiona Hill, a former intelligence officer and well-known scholar of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as his top Russia adviser, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 03.02.17)

Former Sen. Daniel Coats pledged on Feb. 28 that in his role as the nation’s next spy chief he would work with Congress to investigate allegations that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections. (The Washington Post, 02.28.17)

Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., who U.S. President Donald Trump has touted to lead his trade negotiations, was confirmed as secretary of commerce by the Senate in a 72-to-27 vote on Feb. 27. Ross’s confirmation was largely uncontroversial, though Sen. Cory Booker asked the billionaire in recent days to clarify his business ties to Russian shareholders while serving on the board of directors of a Cypriot bank. Sen. Chuck Schumer accused Ross of having questionable business ties to Russia. He said Ross and the Trump administration had failed to be forthcoming about the matter and described it as a troubling pattern. (The Washington Post, 02.27.17, New York Times, 02.27.17)

Russia’s adversaries in the U.S. Congress are preparing an “economic blockade” against Russia, by pushing a bill that would prevent President U.S. Donald Trump from easing sanctions against Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in a statement Feb. 28. (The Moscow Times, 02.28.17)

The Kremlin, increasingly convinced that U.S. President Donald Trump will not fundamentally change relations with Russia, is instead seeking to bolster its global influence by exploiting what it considers weakness in Washington, according to political advisers, diplomats, journalists and other analysts. (New York Times, 02.28.17)

Alexander Posobilov, former employee of an electronics export company in the U.S. city of Houston, has been sentenced to more than 11 years in prison for his role in a scheme to illegally export about $50 million of microelectronics to Russia. (RFE/RL, 03.01.17)

The U.S. Senate may rename the street outside the Russian Embassy in Washington in honor of slain opposition activist Boris Nemtsov. (The Moscow Times, 02.28.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

The Russian government expects the country's gross domestic product to grow by 2% in 2017, pulling the country out of economic recession. (The Moscow Times, 02.28.17)

Russia is set to spend 209 billion rubles ($3.6 billion) in the next three years to boost the country's struggling Arctic regions. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.17)

Twenty-eight Russians on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index have added $24.4 billion to their fortunes since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president on Nov. 8. The 10.5% increase has lifted their combined wealth to $256 billion on the back of rallies for commodities and the ruble amid speculation that relations between Russia and the U.S. will improve. (Bloomberg, 03.01.17)

Russia has become the world’s biggest producer of beet sugar, outpacing France, the United States and Germany, Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev said at the government meeting on March 2. (TASS, 03.02.17)

“Even if they lift sanctions, investment won’t flow,” Boris Titov, the Kremlin’s ombudsman for business, said in an interview in Moscow. “For the moment, the risks in Russia are too high and the returns too low.” (Bloomberg, 02.27.17)

The annexation of Crimea is one of the greatest sources of national pride for ordinary Russians, a survey by independent pollster the Levada Center has revealed. Some 43% of Russians said that they took pride in "returning Crimea to Russia," making it Russia's second most celebrated achievement. It was beaten only by Russia's victory in World War II, which was named as a source of pride by 83% of respondents. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.17)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that the country's anti-doping efforts "failed," but reiterated his claim that it has never had a state-sponsored system for using banned substances to boost performance in sports. (RFE/RL, 03.01.17)

Russia’s leading opposition figure has published a sweeping report accusing Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of corruption, claims which the government has shrugged off as propaganda. In a report posted March 2, Alexei Navalny alleged Medvedev has amassed a collection of lavish mansions, yachts and vineyards managed by companies and charities controlled by his associates. (AP, 03.03.17)

While 33% of people who knew Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny were prepared to vote for him in 2011, just 6% of respondents recognized his name. In 2017, some 47% of respondents recognized the opposition leader. From this larger group, 10% said that they would back Navalny at the polls, independent pollster the Levada Center has revealed. (The Moscow Times, 02.28.17)

Besides a march held on Feb. 26 in Moscow commemorating former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov, who was killed two years ago, events in his memory also took place in others cities on the same day. (RFE/RL, 02.26.17)

A Moscow court has overturned the decision to fine independent Russian news outlet RBC for libeling Igor Sechin, oligarch and ally to Russian President Vladimir Putin. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.17)

Defense and aerospace:

Russia will test-fire an ICBM from a missile-equipped “death train” in 2019, according to Russian media. (The National Interest, 02.26.17)

The first full-size model of Russia’s future long-range bomber PAK DA, being developed for the Aerospace Force, has been created by the Tupolev company, a source in Russia’s defense-industrial complex told TASS. (TASS, 03.01.17)

Russia has developed a new artillery-launched small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that it is offering for export. Under the Russian concept, the UAV would be launched via a 300mm rocket shot from a Smerch Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) at ranges of roughly 90 kilometers. (The National Interest, 03.01.17)

“Psychological warfare has existed as long as man himself.” So begins a book purported to be an unauthorized reprint of the Russian military intelligence service (GRU) textbook on psychological warfare. The book was published in Minsk in 1999, but it has long been the basis of courses on psychological warfare for reserve officer training cadets at Moscow State University’s journalism department, former students say. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

Russia has declined to fulfill recommendations of the European Court on Human Rights to combat torture during police detention. (The Moscow Times, 03.03.17)

Russian intelligence officers charged with betraying state secrets have been accused of covering up their meetings with foreign spies by pretending to act as Kremlin recruiters. The former Federal Security Service officers reportedly told colleagues that they wanted to recruit foreign agents to work for the Kremlin. Instead, they used their meetings to pass on classified information, the Interfax news agency reported Feb. 27. Treason charges brought against the suspects relate to allegations made by a Russian businessman seven years ago, according to the businessman and a source connected with the investigation. (Reuters, 02.26.17, The Moscow Times, 02.27.17)

The General Prosecutor’s Office reported a 9.6% reduction in the number of crimes in Russia in 2016 compared to 2015. Crime in Russia is now at lowest levels in five years. (RBTH, 02.27.17)

Opposition activist Ildar Dadin has been released from prison. The release came after a delay of several days as court paperwork made its way to the Altai IK-5 penal colony in western Siberia. (The Moscow Times, 02.26.17)

Russia has asked France to extradite Sergei Pugachyov, a fugitive banker and former lawmaker who once had close ties to the Kremlin. (RFE/RL, 03.02.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

The Russian government plans to invest $43 billion to upgrade its railway infrastructure in order to benefit from growing freight traffic between China and Europe, a senior official from Russian Railways said this week. (RBTH, 03.02.17)

The Russian central bank plans to open an office in Beijing in mid-March, a central bank official said March 1, as Moscow looks into borrowing in Chinese yuan. (Reuters, 03.01.17)

Sweden has moved to reintroduce conscription "as a response to the new security situation" in Europe, the country's defense minister told CNN March 2. (CNN, 03.02.17)

Japan is ready to propose a specific plan to Russia for the joint economic development of an island chain that both countries claim, The Nikkei Asia Review reports. (RFE/RL, 02.26.17)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met March 2 with Faez Sarraj, the prime minister of the unity government in Tripoli. Lavrov said that Russia, a “good and old friend” of Libya, would like to see it prosperous and united. (AP, 03.02.17)

Russia is proposing the creation of an OPEC-like organization for the global aluminum industry, the TASS news agency quoted Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov as saying on Feb. 27. (Reuters, 02.27.17)

The European Union’s foreign policy chief faced pro-Russian chants and boos in the Serbian parliament on March 3 as she called for the integration of the Western Balkans into the 28-nation bloc. (AP, 03.03.17)

A court in Lithuania has sentenced two men, a Russian citizen and a former Lithuanian military officer, to prison on charges of spying for Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.28.17)

EU and Russian officials have warned of a potential ethnic conflict and geopolitical crisis in the Balkans after Macedonia’s president blocked the opposition leader from forming a government backed by a majority of parliament members. (Financial Times, 03.02.17)

Ukraine:

Regarding the blockade of transportation between separatist-held parts of Donbas and the rest of Ukraine, maintained by Ukrainian war veterans and their supporters:

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said on March 1 there had hardly been any progress in implementing the Minsk peace agreement for eastern Ukraine, which meant no lifting of sanctions against Russia was in sight. (Reuters, 03.01.17)

U.S. lawmakers on March 2 unveiled a bill to keep the U.S. armed forces operating through September. Some $150 million is allotted in the bill to supply Ukraine with lethal and nonlethal aid to counter Russian aggression. This would constitute only half of what the U.S. allocated for such aid in 2016. (VOA, 03.02.17, Gazeta.ru, 03.03.17)

The European Union has extended for a year sanctions against 15 people in Ukraine accused of misusing state funds. Sanctions against former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych and senior members of his administration were first introduced in March 2014 and have been extended annually since. (AP, 03.03.17)

On an official visit to Kiev, British Foreign Secr

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov has called on the government to find a way to forcibly end the blockade, and several blockade participants at two locations were attacked on March 1. (RFE/RL, 03.01.17)

Alexander Zakharchenko, the main pro-Russian separatist leader in Ukraine, said on March 3 he would cut economic ties between rebel territory and the rest of the country, following through on an ultimatum to end trade if the government did not halt a rail blockade. (Reuters, 03.03.17)

Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine said on Feb. 27 they would take control of Ukraine-run businesses in rebel-held areas if the Ukrainian government does not end a rail blockade that has halted coal supplies. They then seized offices of a telecom firm and a charity controlled by Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov. A fifth of a million phone users in Ukraine's rebel-controlled eastern city of Donetsk were cut off from the rest of the country on as a result. (Reuters, 02.27.17, BBC, 02.28.17, Reuters, 03.01.17, 03.01.17)

A company controlled by billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man, said on March 2 that the seizure of some of its assets by Russia-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country is "unacceptable." (RFE/RL, 03.02.17)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman defended the separatist move to seize companies, saying that "regions that have been rejected by their state are in an increasingly difficult situation … in the conditions of a total blockade by extremist elements." (RFE/RL, 03.01.17)

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Russia in Review, Jan. 13-20, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

“Nuclear security is too important to be a party policy, for our nation and for the world. Although we no longer live in the daily dread of nuclear confrontation, the dangers we face today require a bipartisan spirit,‘” outgoing U.S. Vice President Joe Biden warned. (The Dawn, 01.16.17)

“If I was in [Trump’s] position, I would start off on some easy cases, where we have mutual interests, like preventing nuclear terrorism, because a bomb could be set off in Moscow as easily as Washington,” former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry said. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 01.17.17)

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) recently sent a public letter to incoming U.S. President Donald Trump expressing concern over the continuity of government operations for national security positions in the National Nuclear Safety Administration and the U.S. Department of Defense. (Homeland Preparedness News, 01.20.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

No significant developments.

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has called NATO “obsolete because it wasn’t taking care of terror” and said member organizations aren’t paying their “fair share.” Trump also said that the “U.K. was so smart in getting out” of the EU, which he described as “a vehicle for Germany.” Germany’s Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Jan. 16 that Trump’s comments had aroused concern across the 28-member alliance. NATO reacted on Jan. 16 to Trump’s statement by saying it has full confidence in the U.S. security commitment to Europe. In contrast, Moscow has welcomed Trump calling NATO “obsolete.” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on Jan. 16 that "NATO is indeed a vestige [of the past] and we agree with that.” (AP, 01.15.17, Reuters, 01.17.17, RFE/RL, 01.16.17, Slate, 01.16.17)

“We have to think about changing the [NATO] treaty to front face the 21st and 22nd centuries,” incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s advisor Anthony Scaramucci said, adding that the focus should now be on finding common cause with Russia. “Let’s try to find a way to get along better [with Russia]. We need to focus less on combatting Communism and more on rejecting radical Islam,“ he said. (Reuters, 01.17.17)

On Jan. 18, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg pushed hard against U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s comments that the Western military alliance is “obsolete,” saying that the defense organization is constantly evolving to meet modern security threats, including terrorism. (AP, 01.18.17)

A top NATO general said Jan. 17 that aspects of the alliance were “obsolete,” echoing U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s language and saying that the Western military alliance needs to adapt for a changing world. “When I look at the threats we are facing now, we see that we may have focused too much, until the Ukraine crisis, we may have focused too much on expeditionary operations, especially in Afghanistan, and doing that, NATO has a bit failed to look at the change in the strategic background,” said French air force Gen. Denis Mercier, the senior NATO commander based in the United States. (The Washington Post, 01.17.18)

Departing U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter says the U.S. should continue to seek opportunities to cooperate with Russia. Days before the inauguration of incoming President Donald Trump, who has vowed to seek improved relations with Putin, Carter said that option is “still possible” where U.S. and Russian interests overlap, such as blocking North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and preventing Iran from having one. Yet such cooperation has “decidedly not been the case” in fighting Islamic State terrorists in Syria, he said. (Bloomberg, 01.17.17)

Lithuania on Jan. 17 signed an agreement with the United States formalizing the presence of U.S. troops in the small Baltic country bordering Russia and Belarus. (AP, 01.17.17)

Following a Russian military buildup in Kaliningrad over the past few months, Lithuania announced on Jan. 16 that it would build an 80-mile-long fence equipped with surveillance cameras on the border with Kaliningrad, scheduled to be finished later this year. (The Washington Post, 01.17.17)

Polish leaders welcomed U.S. troops to their country Jan. 14, with the defense minister expressing gratitude for their arrival and calling it the fulfillment of a dream Poles have had for decades. The first of 3,500 American troops began rolling into Poland for a nine-month-long mission starting on Jan. 8, 2017. (AP, 01.14.17, The National Interest, 01,15.17)

The U.S. Marine Corps has touched down in Norway. The first 300 Marines en route to Vaernes military base in the Scandinavian country have arrived as part of a temporary, six month stay. (Foreign Policy, 01.17.17)

Missile defense:

No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump said: "They have sanctions on Russia—let’s see if we can make some good deals with Russia. For one thing, I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially, that’s part of it.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov questioned whether Trump had really suggested he would be ready to drop U.S. sanctions on Moscow in exchange for nuclear arms cuts, but said Moscow wanted to start talks with the United States on nuclear weapons and on the balance of military power between the two former Cold War foes anyway. Lavrov said that specific topics of discussion could include hypersonic weapons, the missile shield the United States is building in Europe, space weapons and nuclear testing. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia never raises the issue of sanctions in talks with its foreign counterparts and doesn’t intend to do so because it’s not up to Moscow to scrap them. (The Washington Post, 01.17.17, The Moscow Times, 01.17.17, AP, 01.16.17, Reuters, 01.17.17, RFE/RL, 01.17.17)

In his final press conference, outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama said that Donald Trump may be able to negotiate a deal to further reduce U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, and he blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the deterioration of relations between the two countries in his second term. “If President-elect Trump is able to restart those talks in a serious way, I think there remains a lot of room for our two countries to reduce our stockpiles,” Obama said at the press conference. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.18.17, Bloomberg, 01.19.17)

The Kremlin on Jan. 19 disputed a statement by outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama on nuclear arms cuts, saying Russia had always been ready to consider making proportional cuts to its arsenal. “The Russian side always favored a proportional and fair process of nuclear disarmament,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call. “It can’t be disproportional.” (Reuters, 01.19.17)

Counter-terrorism:

John Brennan, outgoing CIA director, said he spent the morning of Jan. 16 making farewell phone calls to about a dozen foreign counterparts, including Alexander Bortnikov, the director of Russia’s Federal Security Service, with whom he has had a relationship the past four years. While that relationship has grown “very tense” of late, Brennan said the final call was reassuring. “What I told him this morning was, despite the unpleasantness that we’ve had and despite the differences in a number of the policies of our government, that I very much hope that the CIA and the Russian intelligence services can work together in the future,” Brennan said, particularly on counterterrorism. (Wall Street Journal, 01.16.17)

“I think certain possibilities for constructive cooperation with the United States will present themselves in such areas as counter-terrorism efforts, information security and in a number of other spheres,” secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said. (TASS, 01.15.17)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Jan. 20 that Moscow is ready to advance a constructive dialogue with the United States in the interests of jointly combating terrorism. On Jan. 17, Lavrov said that if other countries are unable or unwilling to fight the Islamic State, the Russian Army is prepared to battle them alone. He also claimed that U.S. troops only began to fight the Islamic State after Russian troops arrived in the region. (RFE/RL, 01.20.17, The Moscow Times, 01.17.17)

The Iraqi army on Jan. 17 released a video which features passports belonging to Islamic State fighters from Russia. The documents were discovered in the recently recaptured University of Mosul. Among the Russian passports that can be seen in the video, one belongs to Andrei Katsuk, who was reported missing in July 2013 after he left Krasnoyarsk for Turkey. (The Moscow Times, 01.17.17)

Chechen and Russian security personnel have launched the largest sweep operations to date to round up suspected members of a group of fighters said to be planning large-scale terrorist attacks at the behest of the Islamic State. However, details of how many men have been apprehended or killed, and what their precise intentions were, remain unclear. Since Jan. 10, at least four, and possibly as many as 10 men have been killed and up to 100 apprehended. (RFE/RL, 01.17.17)

Turkish officials on Jan. 17 confirmed the arrest of a suspect accused of fatally shooting 39 people at a New Year’s Eve party in an Istanbul nightclub. Officials say that he is Uzbek national Abdulkadir Masharipov, who is linked to the Islamic State (IS) militant group and had received training in Afghanistan. (Reuters, 01.17.17)

The United States say the last remaining Russian citizen being held in the military detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, has been released. The Defense Department announced on Jan. 19 that former Red Army ballet dancer Ravil Mingazov has been transferred to the United Arab Emirates, along with two other Guantanamo inmates. (RFE/RL, 01.20.17)

Osama Bin Laden wrote on Egypt: “The [leader] might be Bouteflika or the Arab Zionists’ elder Hosni Mubarak or his son, the expected leader; he may be any of those, but subordination is to be controlled [by someone else]. Occupation is taking over the country, government, ministries, police, wild security forces, prisons, detention centers, army against us [the citizens] and an actual leader administering from his office in the embassy, which most likely is American or perhaps Russian, French or even Israeli.” (DNI.gov, 01.19.17)

Conflict in Syria:

The Russian military says it has teamed up with Turkey to conduct joint airstrikes against an Islamic State group’s stronghold in northern Syria. Lt. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi of the military’s General Staff said on Jan. 18 nine Russian warplanes and eight Turkish jets have taken part in the strikes on the outskirts of the town of al-Bab in the province of Aleppo. (AP, 01.18.17)

Pentagon officials have sought to publicly play down the mounting indications of Turkish-Russian military collaboration. Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters last week that he had been assured by his Turkish counterpart that the Turks were not cooperating with the Russians. (New York Times, 01.18.17)

Russia wants incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to send officials to planned Syria talks in Kazakhstan on Jan. 23 in what would be the first formal contact with the new administration, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Lavrov voiced hope that Russian and U.S. experts could start discussions on fighting terrorism in Syria during that meeting. Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Jan. 15 urged the Trump administration to accept an invitation from Russia to attend the talks. (Bloomberg, 01.17.17, AP, 01.17.17, AP, 01.15.17, Reuters, 01.17.17)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said he believed peace talks in Kazakhstan would lead to local “reconciliation” deals with rebels, a sign of his confidence in a process launched by his Russian allies after the opposition’s defeat in Aleppo. On Jan. 20, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek said his country has to be “realistic” and can no longer insist on any settlement for Syria’s long-running war without Assad. (AP, 01.20.17, Reuters, 01.19.17)

Iran opposes the United States’ participation in the Russia-backed Syrian peace talks to be launched in Kazakhstan next week, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Jan. 17. (AP, 01.17.17)

Representatives of some Syrian rebel groups said Jan. 16 they will attend talks sponsored by Russia and Turkey scheduled for Jan. 23 in Kazakhstan, despite mounting violations of a cease-fire across war-ravaged Syria. But one of Syria’s most powerful rebel groups, the Islamist Ahrar al-Sham, said it will not attend peace talks. (AP, 01.16.17, (RFE/RL, 01.19.17)

Moscow and Damascus have signed an agreement to expand and modernize Russia’s naval facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, a Russian government document shows. (RFE/RL, 01.20.17)

The Syrian capital of Damascus was two to three weeks away from falling to terrorists when Russia intervened in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a news conference on Jan. 17. (Reuters, 01.17.17)

Cyber security and alleged Russia interference in the U.S. electoral campaign:

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump criticized U.S. intelligence officials for their role in compiling a memo that suggested Russia might have compromising information on him. Trump backed away from a suggestion on Twitter this week that CIA Director John Brennan might have leaked the salacious allegations about him to the media, saying he accepted Brennan’s denial. “But it came out of someplace,” Trump said. (The Washington Post, 01.18.17)

The FBI and five other intelligence and law enforcement agencies are working together on an investigation into whether Russia’s government secretly helped incoming U.S. President Donald Trump win the election, according to a new report. The collaborative probe is partially focused on whether any covert money from the Kremlin financed hacking operations to benefit Trump’s campaign, McClatchy reported Jan. 18. (The Hill, 01.18.17)

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 17 accused the outgoing U.S. administration of trying to undermine incoming U.S. President Donald Trump by spreading fake allegations and said those who are doing it are “worse than prostitutes.” (AP, 01.17.17)

Russia has dismissed as a fabrication a dossier written by a former officer in Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, which suggested Moscow had collected compromising information about incoming U.S. President Donald Trump. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the dossier’s author, Christopher Steele, as “a fugitive charlatan from MI6” during his annual press conference on Jan. 17. (Reuters, 01.17.17)

“You think we are living in 2016. No, we are living in 1948. And do you know why? Because in 1949, the Soviet Union had its first atomic bomb test. And if until that moment, the Soviet Union was trying to reach agreement with [President Harry] Truman to ban nuclear weapons, and the Americans were not taking us seriously, in 1949 everything changed and they started talking to us on an equal footing,” Andrey Krutskikh, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s adviser on cyber issues, said at a Russian national information security forum in 2016. Krutskikh continued, “I’m warning you: We are at the verge of having ‘something’ in the information arena, which will allow us to talk to the Americans as equals.” (The Washington Post, 01.18.17)

“The conclusions of the intelligence community with respect to the Russian hacking were not conclusive as to whether WikiLeaks was witting or not in being the conduit through which we heard about the DNC emails that were leaked,” outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama told his final press conference. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.18.17)

U.S. surveillance whistleblower Edward Snowden has been given permission to stay in Russia for several more years, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced Jan. 18. (The Moscow Times, 01.18.17)

Outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama has commuted the sentence of Chelsea Manning, a former Army intelligence analyst who is serving 35 years in prison for leaking classified U.S. documents to WikiLeaks. (RFE/RL, 01.18.17)

More than half of Americans believe that Russia interfered in the U.S. presidential elections, according to the results of a poll conducted by U.S. television channel NBC and the Wall Street Journal newspaper. (The Moscow Times, 01.18.17)

A power blackout in Ukraine’s capital last month was caused by a cyberattack and investigators are trying to trace other potentially infected computers and establish the source of the breach, utility Ukrenergo told Reuters on Jan. 18. (Reuters, 01.18.17)

Russian Presidential aide Vladislav Surkov’s personal chief of staff resigned. Two sources close to the presidential administration told Russian newspaper Vedomosti that Alexander Pavlov resigned in December over the leak of his boss’ emails, which had been published online by Ukrainian hackers two months earlier. (The Moscow Times, 01.20.17)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says any claims that Moscow is staging cyberattacks to interfere in European elections are "dreamt-up.” (RFE/RL, 01.17.17)

Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Russian Security Council, says the country recently has seen a marked increase in attempted cyberattacks from overseas. Russia suffers “hundreds and thousands” of cyberattacks emanating from the West daily, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (TASS, 01.20.17, AP, 01.15.17)

Russia’s Kommersant has reported that Andrei Gerasimov, who has been head of the Russian Federal Security Service’s Information Security Center, responsible for the its cybersecurity, since 2009, may soon be dismissed, according to an unnamed source at the bureau. (Foreign Policy, 01.13.17)

A Russian programmer has been arrested in Spain on the orders of U.S. intelligence agencies. Stanislav Lisov was detained in the Barcelona airport on Jan. 13 as part of an FBI search for “Russian hackers,” his wife Darya Lisova said. Spanish police say the programmer is one of that country’s most important hackers and is wanted by the United States for suspected financial fraud amounting to some $5 million (5 million euros). (The Moscow Times, 01.19.17, AP, 01.20.17)

Russian researcher Andrei Leonov has been awarded a record $40,000 by U.S. social media site Facebook for spotting a vital security flaw. (The Moscow Times, 01.20.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

OPEC, which is cutting oil output alongside independent producer Russia for the first time in years, wants a lasting partnership with Moscow, the energy minister for top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia said on Jan. 19. (Reuters, 01.19.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

Twelve months ago, the mood of the Russian delegation at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland was distinctly gloomy, with oil prices near 12-year lows below $30 per barrel and Western sanctions depressing their economy and financial markets. Since then, however, Russian stock and bond markets have risen about 50%, boosted by rebounding oil and—more recently—expectations that the new U.S. presidency of Donald Trump will ease the sanctions imposed over Moscow’s actions in Ukraine. Russian magnates and American investors alike are anticipating a Trump administration that removes punishing sanctions, frees up access to capital and encourages U.S. businesses pursuing profits in Russia’s vast market—regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policies. (Reuters, 01.18.17, AP, 01.19.17)

Anthony Scaramucci, aide to incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and founder of SkyBridge Capital, discussed possible joint investments in a Davos, Switzerland meeting with Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund that the U.S. sanctioned in 2015, the fund’s press service said. (Bloomberg, 01.17.17)

“We have uncertainties again about the U.S. Who knows what the new administration will do?” Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska, president of United Co. Rusal PLC, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of the gathering at the World Economic Forum. (Wall Street Journal, 01.20.17)

Other bilateral issues:

Top aides to incoming U.S. President Donald Trump have denied a published report that he plans to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Iceland as his first foreign trip in office. Incoming White House press secretary Sean Spicer said the report is “not true—[the] report is 100% false.” But two Russian officials said Moscow was working on a plan to organize the meeting of two presidents in Reykjavik. “The first meeting should take place neither in Russia nor in the U.S. but in a neutral third country,” an official in the Russian presidential administration told Financial Times. “It certainly won’t be London, and it won’t be Germany, because they’re both too hostile to Russia. It can’t be France—that would be seen as inappropriate because they have an election campaign going on. What about Iceland?” (Financial Times, 01.15.17, RFE/RL, 01.15.17)

In a move that appears designed to make it harder for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to roll back sanctions after President Barack Obama leaves office, on Jan. 13 Obama extended all U.S. sanctions on Russia through March 2018 over its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and its backing of separatists in the eastern part of the country. (RFE/RL, 01.14.17, RFE/RL, 01.15.17)

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will keep U.S. sanctions against Russia in place “at least for a period of time,” he has said in an interview, adding that he would consider lifting the sanctions once Russian President Vladimir Putin proves he can be an ally. “If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody’s doing some really great things?” Trump said. (RFE/RL, 01.15.17)

In a series of interviews in March 2014, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump singled out Russia as the United States’ “biggest problem” and greatest geopolitical foe. In these interviews reviewed by CNN, which occurred on NBC News and Fox News, Trump goes as far as to suggest imposing sanctions to hurt Russia economically and then later says he supports such sanctions. Trump also expressed his agreement with former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s 2012 assessment that Russia is the United States’ number one “geopolitical foe.” (CNN, 01.17.17)

Moscow hopes for better relations with the United States based on respect for mutual interests once Donald Trump takes office, in contrast with the “messianic” approach of the outgoing administration that has ravaged ties, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his annual press conference on Tuesday. “They don’t want to have double standards, and they don’t intend to use the fight against terrorism as a cover for personal interests,” Lavrov said. “By concentrating on a pragmatic search for mutual interests we can solve a lot of problems,” he said. Lavrov also dismissed reports that U.S. senators are preparing new sanctions against Moscow. “The new administration will seek to understand the interests of their partners without any moralizing,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 01.17.17, AP, 01.17.17, Reuters, 01.17.17)

Russian officials and lawmakers lauded incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, hoping it will herald a period of better ties with the United States, while revelers in Moscow and elsewhere gathered for celebrations as bar and club owners sought to cash in on public excitement. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that while Trump’s policy toward Russia is unclear yet, “we are hoping that reason will prevail.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he considers it a big mistake to think Trump is “our” man. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Jan. 17 that Moscow hopes for better relations with the United States based on respect for mutual interests once Trump takes office, in contrast with the “messianic” approach of the outgoing administration that has ravaged ties. “They don’t want to have double standards, and they don’t intend to use the fight against terrorism as a cover for personal interests,” Lavrov said. “By concentrating on a pragmatic search for mutual interests we can solve a lot of problems.” Lavrov also dismissed reports that U.S. senators are preparing new sanctions against Moscow. “The new administration will seek to understand the interests of their partners without any moralizing,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 01.17.17, AP, 01.17.17, Reuters, 01.17.17, AP, 01.20.17, RBTH/TASS, 01.20.17)

“I think it is in America’s interest and the world’s interest that we have a constructive relationship with Russia … Where our interests have overlapped, we’ve worked together,” outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama told his final press conference. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.18.17)

The U.S. must confront Russian aggression just as it took on fascism and Communism in earlier decades, outgoing U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power said in a farewell address. (Bloomberg, 01.17.17)

Outgoing U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, in his last major speech before leaving office, described Russia on Jan. 18 as the biggest threat to the international liberal order and said Washington must work with Europe to stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Reuters, 01.18.17)

John Brennan, the outgoing CIA director, charged on Jan. 15 that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump lacks a full understanding of the threat Moscow poses to the United States. “Mr. Trump has to understand that absolving Russia of various actions it has taken in the past number of years is a road that he, I think, needs to be very, very careful about moving down,” Brennan said. Brennan also rejected Trump’s suggestions that he may have leaked an unsubstantiated dossier on the president. (Foreign Policy, 01.17.17, AP, 01.15.17, Wall Street Journal, 01.16.17)

The U.S. Treasury will enforce all sanctions against Russia unless a deal were reached between Washington and Moscow, Steven Mnuchin, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee to run the department said on Jan. 19. Asked during a Senate confirmation hearing if he was committed to enforcing existing sanctions against Russia, Mnuchin said: “100 percent so.” (Reuters, 01.19.17)

Adam Szubin, the U.S. Treasury Department’s top official for terrorism and financial intelligence, is among 50 senior Obama administration appointees to remain in their posts after his inauguration to ensure continuity in government. The Obama administration picked Szubin in January 2016 to accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of being corrupt. Szubin also travelled to Europe in late 2016 to discuss enforcement of sanctions on Russia. (Indian Express, 01.19.17, Reuters, 01.25.17, research by Russia Matters’ staff, Wall Street Journal, 01.20.17)

During her confirmation hearing for the post of U.S. ambassador to the U.N., South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley voiced heavy skepticism about Russia and optimism about NATO, both deviations from some of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements. “Russia is trying to show their muscle right now. It’s what they do,” Haley said. “I don’t think that we can trust them,” she added. “We have to continue to be very strong back and show them what this new administration is going to be.” (The Washington Post, 01.18.17)

During his annual press conference Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized U.S. spy agencies for what he described as numerous efforts to recruit Russian diplomats under pressure. U.S. intelligence agencies tried to use vital medicines as leverage to recruit a Russian diplomat as a spy, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on Jan. 15. Lavrov also pointed out that the U.S. diplomats more than once acted in disguise, particularly, men dressed as women. (The Washington Post, 01.17.17, TASS, 01.17.17, The Moscow Times, 01.16.17)

Russia’s Foreign Ministry plans to ask the new U.S. presidential administration to halt what it calls "illegal abductions” of Russian citizens from third countries. (The Moscow Times, 01.18.17)

Russia’s ban on U.S. citizens adopting Russian children breaks human rights law, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has ruled. The court ordered Moscow to pay damages to American families who were abruptly prevented from adopting Russian children, characterizing the ban as discriminatory. The speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament said Jan. 18 that Moscow is willing to open discussions about rescinding the ban on Americans adopting Russian children. (AP, 01.18.17, The Moscow Times, 01.17.17, New York Times, 01.17.17)

Russian authorities warned that they could retaliate against U.S.-based media and social networks if state-backed Russian channel RT’s access to social networks is restricted, a threat that came amid what the network called a “war” targeting its digital reach. (RFE/RL, 01.19.17)

The CIA published 12 million pages of declassified documents online Jan. 17. Around 33,000 of the documents are intelligence files pertaining to Russian territory. Another 150,000 relate to other Soviet Republics. One document tells the story of Operation Gold, a joint scheme concocted in the 1950s by the CIA and British security services to tap into communications of the Soviet army in Berlin using a tunnel into the Soviet-occupied zone. (The Moscow Times, 01.19.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

Russia’s economy could grow by 2% in 2017 as long as there are no external shocks such as a renewed fall in oil prices, Russia’s Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Oil—a crucial source of revenue—has bounced back above $50 and Russian manufacturing expanded in December at its fastest pace since 2011, a sign the economy is starting to grow again. (Reuters, 01.18.17, Reuters, 01.20.17)

A recent poll by Russia’s Public Opinion Foundation found that 45% of Russians are dissatisfied with the general situation in the country. Nearly half the population expressed dissatisfaction with the authorities in the realms of healthcare, the economy and the social safety net. (The Moscow Times, 01.19.17)

Russia could start building up its depleted fiscal reserves while keeping the ruble from firming if prices for Urals crude oil URL-E average $55 a barrel this year, documents seen by Reuters showed on Jan. 19. (Reuters, 01.19.17)

South Korea topped the 2017 Bloomberg Innovation Index published on Jan. 17. Russia dropped to 26th place from 12th place in early 2016. (RBTH, 01.18.17)

Russian state-owned bank VTB lent over $11 billion to Qatar and commodities trader Glencore four days after they signed a deal to buy a stake in Russian state oil firm Rosneft for the same amount of money. (Reuters, 01.17.17)

Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom has pushed back a program to build a BREST-OD-300 lead-cooled fast reactor, dubbed the “breakthrough” program, over the country’s dire economic straits, Russian media reported. (Bellona, 01.19.17)

The Kremlin is planning to build an exclusive health clinic for Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior officials, according to documents seen by Reuters and to medical sources familiar with the project. (Reuters, 01.19.17)

Defense and Aerospace:

On Jan. 16, 2017, the Strategic Rocket Forces carried out a successful flight test of a silo-based Topol-M (SS-27) missile. The missile was launched from a silo at the Plesetsk test site north of Moscow, and the warhead was said to have reached its target at the Kura site in Kamchatka. (Russianforces, 01.16.16)

Flight tests of Russia’s new Barguzin rail-mobile ICBM are said to begin in 2019. (Russianforces.org, 01.19.17)

Russia’s Sarmat program that is expected to produce a new “heavy” ICBM, appears to have hit some kind of a bump. The first sign was the delay with the first ejection tests—they were moved from 2015 to the end of 2016 and now to 2017. (Russianforces.org, 01.19.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

Russia’s Constitutional Court has dismissed a landmark ruling by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) to pay 1.8 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in compensation to the former shareholders of defunct Russian oil company Yukos. The Russian court ruled that the ECHR decision violated Russia’s constitution and that the Kremlin did not need to honor the pay-out. (The Moscow Times, 01.19.17)

Lawyers for the Russian government and former shareholders of defunct Russian oil giant Yukos are back in court in what could be the final stages of a $50 billion battle over ex-tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s once-massive energy company. (RFE/RL, 01.17.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

Chinese President Xi Jinping said China would “strive to build a new model of major-country relations with the United States,” as well as “a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination with Russia” and other relationships, without giving specific details. (AP, 01.18.17)

Russia is an important international partner and world leaders should consider inviting it back to the annual summit of major industrialized nations, Italian Foreign Minister Angelino Alfano said on Jan. 17. (Reuters, 01.20.17)

There is no reason to speculate about a return to the Group of Eight (G8) meetings that included Russia, a spokesman for the German government said on Jan. 20. (Reuters, 01.20.17)

Russia is working with China to try to get talks on North

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Africa Programme

In a rapidly changing international environment, supporting improved understanding of politics and socio-economic change in sub-Saharan African countries towards more effective international engagements becomes ever more important.

The Africa Programme’s independent research and outreach will support decision-makers globally with evidence-based analysis and discussion of challenges faced, progress made and policy approaches in sub-Saharan Africa towards improved outcomes. Our work will also serve to provide a reminder of the important role of sub-Saharan African countries, both state and non-state actors, in the changing international system.

Access to our research and open events remains free thanks to the generous support of thefunders of the Africa Programme.

Central and East Africa

Emphasis in the Africa Programme’s work on examining political trends and prospects for consolidating democracy and respect for the rule of law for greater accountability and inclusion continues. With elections in Kenya and Rwanda, the Africa Programme will track developments in both countries and trends in the region. Kenya’s August election, taking place in an already challenging environment, is raising fears of escalating tensions and ethnic polarisation. The Africa Programme will engage with a range of actors in support of a peaceful, free and fair process.

Analysis on the Democratic Republic of the Congo will focus on national and regional implications of the political crisis resulting from delayed elections and President Kabila remaining in office beyond his constitutional mandate. Africa Programme engagement will focus on where solutions might lie to steer the DRC towards a more progressive course to lift the livelihoods and prospects of its citizens. Similarly, the consequences of and possible solutions to the crisis in Burundi triggered by President Nkurunziza’s controversial third term will be discussed with key actors.

Research on important questions of governance for development and more equitable economic growth will continue. Case studies in Tanzania and Uganda will examine the prospects for the scaling up of local businesses to expand employment, and an Africa Programme publication will analyse infrastructure development in Tanzania.

Horn of Africa

The effects of changing interests, priorities, and relations in and on the Horn of Africa will be examined through a series of events and publications. The drivers, nature and impact of relations between Gulf States and countries of the Horn of Africa will be analysed in a report based on field research and events in the two regions.

Ethiopia’s development, regional integration and role as non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, in addition to domestic dynamics and responses to the state of emergency, will be a research focus. Post-election Somalia including federal institution-building, stabilisation efforts by national and regional security forces, economic expansion and resource-sharing will be analysed. The anticipated election of a new President in Somaliland will be monitored, together with the impacts of severe drought. Events and research on South Sudan and Sudan will continue to emphasise the importance of pursuing inclusive political processes, dialogue and reconciliation.

Southern Africa

Policies for generating inclusive and diversified economic growth to tackle inequality, strengthening regional security, consolidating democracy, and adapting to environmental change will feature strongly in Africa Programme activities, including Southern Africa research. The Programme will publish research on South Africa’s commercial relationships with other African countries, as well as the prospects for generating businesses of scale in Zambia. A May conference will explore progress in and potential for economic diversification and development in Angola. Our project on infrastructure development will examine local perspectives on governance for infrastructure development in Angola and Mozambique.

Events and research will track developments towards Angola’s elections and the implications of the departure of President dos Santos after 38 years in office for the country’s political and democratic future. Analysis of the ANC’s presidential elective conference at the end of 2017 will inform engagements with South Africa.

The Programme will also build on its work on Zimbabwe’s reengagement and transition, and follow developments in Mozambique, including the resurgence of RENAMO and the country’s economic fragility. An event will discuss Africa’s maritime security and development as South Africa assumes the chair of the Indian Ocean Rim Association later this year. The Africa Programme will continue to provide administrative and research support to the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on Angola.

West Africa

A key focus of the Africa Programme’s work in 2017 will be the analysis of resource governance and efforts to diversify economies. West Africa will feature heavily in this work, with publications that will examine governance towards the delivery of sustainable civil infrastructure projects in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. A new project together with the Chatham House MENA Programme will investigate North African and Western Sahel economic links.

As Liberia prepares for general elections in October 2017, which will mark its first transition of power through open elections, Africa Programme research and events will monitor developments, including efforts to rebuild the economy that has been devastated by the Ebola crisis.

Nigeria remains a key focus of the work of the Africa Programme. In 2017, reports will be published exploring prospects for scaling-up of businesses, and how to better connect policy and institutional efforts on anticorruption to everyday experiences and expectations of society. Supporting informed approaches to address Nigeria’s current closely linked economic, development, security and humanitarian challenges will be central to Africa Programme work. The Africa Programme will also continue to provide administrative and research support to the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on Nigeria.

Africa in the International System

Many of the gains made in Africa over the last two decades through democratic transitions, strong economic growth, development efforts, greater stability and improvements in governance may be under threat of reversal as globally many states become more inward-looking with a shift towards more protectionist trade policies. Africa Programme research and outreach will examine how the African Union, under its new AU Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahama, and Africa’s Regional Economic Communities can work to further progress, and strengthen Africa’s position as an influential collective actor on global challenges including climate change, refugee flows, migration and trade for development.

Analysis of sub-Saharan African states’ diversified international relations and shifting influences will continue, with the May launch of a publication examining emerging relations between Africa and the newest EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe, and the opportunities that might emerge for both regions from these engagements. Africa Programme activities ahead of the 5th EU-Africa summit will explore evolving EU-Africa relations and intended outcomes of the summit.

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Iran

James Mattis on Iran

| Jan. 17, 2017

President Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, retired Marine Gen. James Mattis, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he would not have signed the nuclear deal with Iran but that the United States must live up to its obligations and work with its allies.

Rex Tillerson on Iran

| Jan. 12, 2017

Former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, said that he would conduct a “full review” of the nuclear deal and begin considering next steps if confirmed. Tillerson told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Iran poses a great threat to the world because of its “refusal to conform to international norms.”

Mike Pompeo on Iran | Jan. 12, 2017 President Trump’s nominee for Central Intelligence Agency Director, Mike Pompeo, said that he opposed the nuclear deal as a member of Congress, but acknowledged that his role would change upon confirmation. “First, you have my commitment that we, if I’m confirmed at the Agency, will continue to evaluate their compliance with the Agreement in the way that you just described the Agency has been doing to date,” he told the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Nikki Haley on Iran | Jan. 20, 2017 Governor Nikki Haley, Trump’s nominee for U.N. ambassador, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the U.N. Security Council’s endorsement of the nuclear deal was a “huge disappointment” and that the new administration would need “to do a lot of things to fix what’s happened.” Haley, however, did not advocate for unilaterally pulling out of the agreement.

Poll 1: Iranians on Nuclear Deal, Trump | Jan. 25, 2017 Some 71 percent of Iranians believe that President Trump is likely to decide not to abide by the nuclear deal’s terms, according to a new poll by the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland and IranPoll.com. Some 55 percent of Iranians predict his policies will be completely hostile toward Iran.

Poll 2: Rouhani’s Standing, 2017 Election | Jan. 25, 2017 President Hassan Rouhani will be up for reelection in May 2017. His popularity peaked in August 2015 with an 89 percent favorability rating just after the nuclear deal was brokered between Iran and the world’s six major powers. As of December 2016, however, only 68 percent of Iranians viewed him favorably, according to a new poll.

One Year Anniversary of Nuclear Deal | Jan. 17, 2017 Top leaders marked the first anniversary of the nuclear deal’s implementation day, January 16. President Obama said the deal has “achieved significant, concrete results in making the United States and the world a safer place.” President Rouhani also hailed the achievement, but accused Washington of obstructing implementation.

Iran Meets Fordow Milestone | Jan. 25, 2017 Under the nuclear deal, Iran was required to remove certain infrastructure and excess centrifuges from the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant by the one-year anniversary of implementation, January 16, 2017. The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Yukiya Amano, and U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, have both confirmed Iran’s compliance.

Crisis Group Report on Status of Nuclear Deal | Jan. 19, 2017 The International Crisis Group released a report highlighting uncertainly around the agreement’s continued implementation. It notes that the new U.S. administration, should it seek to renegotiate the deal, would have “more credibility in offering incentives to Iran than President Barack Obama ever did” because President Trump will likely be backed by the Republican-controlled Congress.

Kuwait Minister Calls for Dialogue with Iran | Jan. 25, 2017 Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sabah Khaled al Sabah made a rare one-day visit to Tehran and called for a frank dialogue between Iran and its Arab neighbors.

US Renews State of Emergency with Iran | Jan. 13, 2017 President Obama sent letters to Congress on the continuation of the national emergency with respect to Iran.

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The Astana process may represent a moment of new Russian seriousness.

This week’s Russian-sponsored Syria peace talks in Astana were meant to demonstrate Moscow’s centrality to resolving the Syria crisis. Gathering together the key regional actors – Turkey and Iran, as well as the Syrian government and a delegation of armed rebels – Moscow hoped to finally break the log-jam.

Yet, in the end, the talks proved unable to deliver any meaningful breakthrough. There are no concrete details on how a current Russian-Turkey brokered ceasefire will be solidified, no steps to end the deliberate obstruction of humanitarian assistance, nor any meaningful political progress. In many ways Astana mirrored previous US-Russian summits – promising future cooperation, namely the establishment of a joint ceasefire monitoring mechanism, rather than delivering immediate action. It is no surprise that new UN-sponsored intra-Syrian talks scheduled for February have now been delayed.

But the failure of the Astana talks to deliver immediate results may not entirely be due to the Russian intransigence that has hung over repeated rounds of international negotiations. While scepticism that this may just be another ruse to buy the regime more time to finish the job has some value, there’s no getting away from the sense that the Astana process represents a moment of new Russian seriousness.

Moscow has invested considerable energy in this process in an apparent bid to consolidate the regime’s military gains. In so doing Moscow has reached an unprecedented accord with Turkey, the opposition’s key external backer. This agreement has already delivered important results, including a ceasefire that has held fast across significant areas of the country. Ankara has considerably softened its stance that Assad must go, reflecting both the post-Aleppo reality and its prioritisation of preventing further Syrian-Kurdish advances. Russia has, in turn, sent signals that it is willing to support a Turkish zone of influence in northern Syria as part of an approach that accepts a degree of decentralisation across non-regime areas. Moscow and Ankara even went as far as conducting joint anti-ISIS air strikes around the northern city of al-Bab this week.

Meanwhile, Russia has opened the door to a wider array of key rebel armed groups, a development that points to a new Russian pragmatism that recognises the necessity of a more inclusive approach.

Meanwhile, Russia has opened the door to a wider array of key rebel armed groups, including the Turkish backed Ahrar al-Sham and the Damascus-based Jaish al-Islam, both of which it formerly labeled as extremist. It is a development that points to a new Russian pragmatism that recognises the necessity of a more inclusive approach.

Taken together these represent notable shifts. But they remain insufficient for locking in the ceasefire yet alone moving forward a meaningful political process.

In the end, Moscow appears to fallen short of securing full Iranian buy-in, without which it remains unable to deliver a recalcitrant Assad set on total victory. Tehran continues to believe that control must, at minimum, be re-established over rebel-held districts in Damascus, the strategic importance of which is self-evident. Ongoing fighting around Wadi Barada and East Ghouta has been a key obstacle to cementing the ceasefire and broader peace process. The continued military operations of Russia’s allies in these regions drew unprecedented criticism from Moscow, laying bear some of the divisions at play.

Until the regime re-establishes control over these areas, which appears increasingly inevitable - there is little reason to believe that Russia will do much to shift Iran’s calculations. The delay in the creation of a ceasefire monitoring mechanism and the postponement of new intra-Syrian talks in Geneva, likely reflects this reality.

But if Moscow has any hope of this process meaningfully moving forward, Iran’s support will be paramount. In many ways Tehran faces a coming moment of truth – a choice between the more minimalist interpretation of victory, apparently now pursued by Moscow, and the maximalist ambitions of the regime that would involve taking the fight to Idlib, Daraa, and beyond. The choice it makes will have a significant bearing on the next phase of the conflict.

On the one hand it is clear why Iran might – and is perhaps likely – to continue the fight. Not only has the regime long been clear that it wants to regain control over every inch of Syrian territory, but recent dynamics have put the wind in its sails. With armed opposition increasingly neutralised due to a lack of external support, the strategic logic in trying to confront the last meaningful stronghold of significant opposition capability in Idlib is clear. The recent outbreak of intra-rebel fighting across the province as the rebranded al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat Fateh al-Sham advances against other groups, some of whom were represented in Astana, will make the task both easier and more palatable internationally.

Meanwhile, Iran is also acutely aware of the tide of anti-Iran sentiment sweeping through Washington DC following the election of President Donald Trump. Rather than fold, as some might hope, Tehran may choose to double down on its regional position, employing the forward defence approach that has long defined its regional strategy. Trump’s recent messaging on the need for safe zones in Syria could push Iran to take action now before these can materialise, even if Trump’s aversion to putting US troops on the ground or arming the opposition make the likelihood of US-led safe zones somewhat questionable.

But this strategy could prove risky for Iran, and there are reasons it might choose to hold fire. Tehran could have a more minimalist view of victory, one that nonetheless assures the Assad regime’s strategic dominance and which in time could also come to include ISIS-held and energy rich territories in the east of country, as a means of extricating itself from a longer term fight. Iranian manpower and resources are, in the end, likely to bear the greater burden of any ongoing conflict given the Assad regime’s clear capacity constraints. Iran’s response may, in part, depend on the extent of alignment with Ankara and its belief that a Turkish northern zone of influence could actually serve to contain ongoing rebel ambitions, thereby limiting the possible impact of an ongoing insurgency.

The possibility of a shift in international acceptance of Assad’s hold over core Syria (UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson suggested this week that Assad could stand in future elections, demonstrating a potential shift in position) might persuade Tehran of the wisdom of consolidating its position through the ceasefire and a carefully managed political process.

The truth is that no one knows the precise nature of current Iranian calculations, or how far Moscow is willing to go to try and deliver a result. Having initiated and in some sense tied its credibility to the process, Moscow will be intent on delivering some progress, and it is Moscow’s track that today probably holds out the best hope of securing a more meaningful ceasefire and wider de-escalation. It may well deploy some leverage by refraining from providing ongoing air cover to new regime advances. But it remains more uncertain whether it would ever be willing to try and force compliance from Iran, perhaps as part of a wider agreement with Trump that some are now betting on.

The optimistic view is that this is the moment Russia begins to shift position. The realistic view is probably that in the end Russia will have no choice but to bend to Iran’s will or risk losing the entirety of its Syria investment.

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