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The war in Syria has displaced 13 million people, but the situation and realities on the ground are not helping to facilitate their return writes Al-Araby al-Jadeed.

As the bombardment of civilian targets in northern Syria by Assad’s regime and Russian forces continues, a key battle for the country’s future looms under the fog of war. 

This battle centres on the rights of some 13 million displaced Syrians and the return to their homes in a safe and dignified manner. 

It is precisely the displaced who hold the key to the future of the country and stability of the region. And even beyond the region, the political dynamics of Europe will also be significantly impacted if another wave of Syrian refugees hits its shores.

The narrative of Assad’s victory in the Syrian conflict permeates international discourse, and serves to fortify the false legitimacy of a regime that has killed hundreds of thousands of its citizens, and expelled millions, but is now considered the authority that is supposed to now guarantee the rights of those returning from displacement. 

Not only is this narrative a perversion of the basic internationally recognised rights of the displaced, it is also patently false. 

What has Assad won? Russia, Iran and its proxies are today the real owners of Syria, not Assad’s regime.

Nothing testifies to this as vividly as the reality of an Assad “victory” in areas under the “control” of his forces. They are a textbook example of a failed and illegitimate state on the brink of a complete social and economic collapse. The regime’s political decisions are dictated by Russia, while Iran’s penetration of the security, military and economic sectors of the country has reached unprecedented levels.

It is not the myth of Assad’s “victory,” but the safe return of the 13 million displaced – more than half of country’s population – that will define the country’s future and any chance of durable stability.

Assad knows this and is frantically trying to demographically engineer a new reality through various means, including dubious legislation. Examples of this are the notorious Decree 66 and Law 10, designed to effectively strip the displaced of property ownership.

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The Syrian and Russian armies have dispatched a large number of troops to Northern Hama and built new military positions there to confront a possible aggression by the Turkish Army, Kurdish media said Sunday.

The Xber24 news website reported that the Russian troops have built four military points in the city of Tal Rafat in Northern Syria to support the Syrian Army in the war on terrorism.

It pointed to the arrival of a large number of Russian Army forces together with heavy weapons to the military points over the past two days and equipment of these bases, and said that these forces have reinforced their military points in the town of Kashta'ar in Northern Aleppo and some new commanders have also been appointed to the mission.

Meantime, it said that the Russian military reinforcements came as differences have intensified between the Turkish and Russian sides after Ankara supported Tahrir al-Sham in its attacks on the Syrian Army.

According to a military source in Aleppo, the Syrian Army has also sent reinforcements from the capital, Damascus, and Homs to the Southern countryside of the province. The reinforcements have reportedly arrived at the key town of Al-Hadher.

The source told Al-Masdar that the Syrian Army is preparing to launch an offensive around the key town of Tal Al-‘Eis, which they briefly captured during their late 2015 offensive.

In a relevant development earlier today, a Russian newspaper in a report on Ankara's attempt to arm terrorists in Northern Syria in flagrant violation of the Sochi Agreement with Russia disclosed Turkey's support for militants' attack on Humeimem Military Base in Lattakia Province.

After declaring ceasefire by the Syrian Army in Idlib province on May 18, terrorists launched rocket attacks on Russia's Humeimem military base which resulted in emergency phone talks between the Russian and Turkish sides, the Arabic-language service of Russia Today cited Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta as saying.

It added that a news website affiliated to Tahrir al-Sham al-Hay'at (the Levant Liberation Board or the Al-Nusra Front) has released photos on the attack on Humeimem military base as the rockets used in the attack bore Turkish-language imprints. However, the pictures were taken off hours later.

The report also noted that the attack on Humeimem military base had not been possible without Ankara's support, and said that Turkey arms terrorists who are fighting the Syrian government as Humeimem military base constantly comes under attack by terrorists stationed in Idlib.  

Meantime, an expert of Russia's Strategic Research Center Vladimir Ivosif confirmed the report, and said that terrorists' access to modern missile-launchers is only possible from Turkey.

Hmeimim Air Base is a Syrian airbase currently operated by Russia, located Southeast  of the city of Lattakia. The airbase shares some airfield facilities with Bassel Al-Assad International Airport. The legal status of the base is regulated by a treaty Russia and Syria signed in August 2015. At the end of 2017, Russia said it had decided to turn the Hmeimim base into a component of its permanent military contingent stationed in Syria.

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It was a long day today ,back to the quarter's.