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jameswoo · 2 years ago

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A great deal of attention has been focused on Microsoft’s Game Pass subscription service. However, the recent Microsoft quarterly earnings show that the service does not appear to be doing much for Microsoft’s bottom line.Revenue from both Xbox hardware and content and services declined during the holiday 2022 season. This begs the question, does Microsoft’s game business model make sense?

How Many Subscribers Does Game Pass Have?

As a large conglomerate, it should be noted that Microsoft provides limited insight into its game business. However, the company did note that Game Pass subscribers were up. On the earnings conference call, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said Xbox monthly active users reached 120 million.

However, Xbox users is not a relevant number as Xbox basically comes free with any Windows PC or phone. As DFC reported, our company has had issues making sure that we do NOT become active Xbox users on business PCs. The tendency is to get anyone with a Microsoft account into Xbox.

The important metric is Game Pass subscribers. A year ago this time, Phil Spencer, CEO of Microsoft Gaming reported Game Pass had 25 million subscribers. The media has pegged this number at 29 million after Sony filed a comment with the U.K. CMA last October. However, like much of Sony’s filing. the source was dubiously cherry-picked and has since been discredited.

Whatever the true number of Game Pass subscribers, it is clear that Game Pass is struggling to grow into a true mass-market service. In its latest financial filings Sony reported 45.4 million PlayStation Plus subscribers (down from a peak of 48 million at the end of 2021). Meanwhile, Nintendo reports 36 million Switch Online subscribers, up from 32 million in the previous year's quarter (ending 9/30).

How Many Subscribers Are Needed for the Business Model to Work?

On the surface, the numbers for the video game industry appear staggering. DFC Intelligence shares some blame for adding to the hype when talking about over 3 billion video game consumers worldwide. However, this is primarily a number thrown out for mass media journalists. The true analysis lies in the many subsegments where a company like Microsoft can report quarterly revenue in video games of $4.8 billion and it feels like a disappointment.

The problem with Game Pass is the business model does not appear to work. Comparing subscriber numbers is not necessarily fair because the services have significantly different prices. However, what is clear is how well Nintendo’s subscription service works as an enhancement to the overall business model of selling hardware and software. In contrast, Game Pass appears to be trying to be its own end where Xbox hardware sales are not important.

Xbox Game Pass subscriptions range from $5 month to $15 a month. There is even a $25/$35 a month/for a 2-year financing option that includes an Xbox Series S or X at 0% financing. Sony launched a new PlayStation Plus program last June. The new service is confusing but essentially monthly prices range from $10 to $18 a month, with a significant discount buying yearly of $60 to $120/year/

Meanwhile, there is Nintendo Switch Online which costs only $20 a year or a family plan for 8 accounts is only $35 a year. In late 2021, Nintendo added the option to upgrade to a Nintendo Switch Online + Expansion Pack for $50 a year ($80 for family option).

When one does the math, Game Pass is making probably three times the revenue Nintendo Switch Online currently generates and probably getting close to matching PlayStation+ revenue because it is priced higher. However, Microsoft is giving away a lot to generate that revenue and it does not appear to be a sustainable long-term business model.

Of course, if Game Pass could somehow get 100 million subscribers the economics would change. But that is a big if. Even if the Activision Blizzard user numbers (minus mobile users) are added in the numbers fall far short. A top-selling front-line Call of Duty can only hit 30 million units and Blizzard MAUs have hovered around 30 million for years.

Nintendo Switch Online: Average Service at a Reasonable Price

The beauty of Nintendo’s online service is it is not very good in comparison to the competition but offers decent value for the consumer. The basic service gives you online play for a fairly limited number of titles (about 40) as well as a limited number of the 1980s and early 1990s NES and SNES games. The Expansion packs add Sega Genesis (console system launched 1989) and Nintendo 64 (console system launched 1996) games from the mid-to-late 1990s as well as some expansion packs for Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, and Splatoon.

PlayStation Plus gives free monthly downloadable games and the option to upgrade to a catalog of over 400 downloadable games plus over 300 streaming games going back to the first PlayStation. Game Pass is similar to PS+ but takes it a step further by adding PC games, EA games, Ubisoft games and most importantly making all Microsoft first-party content free for subscribers.

The last part of giving away AAA first-party content is the kicker. Nintendo’s online service includes extra content for Mario Kart 8 and Animal Crossing: New Horizons. However, these titles respectively sold 48 million and 40 million units at full retail price. In other words, these two titles generated more revenue than a year of Game Pass.

Are Video Games Appropriate For a Netflix-Style Model?

For many years, DFC has argued that it is usually not appropriate to compare video games to viewing traditional non-interactive video. They are a different medium and a major mistake subscription services tend to make is talking about the “Netflix of video games.”

The difference with video games is that the content tends to attract a long-term audience who stays around a specific game for the long term. In contrast, once users watch a show on a service like Netflix the majority move on to the next show. This is good news for the overall video game business. Nintendo, and companies like Electronic Arts, have moved to a high-price initial content purchase model followed by live service updates.

The problem with game services like Game Pass is they rotate games before consumers can finish playing them. If a consumer truly likes a game they will tend to buy the full version. The hope is that they will buy it through a Microsoft Xbox channel but the reality is they are likely to choose another distributor.

What About Exclusives?

Take for example the recent release of the Sega/Atlus title Persona 4 Golden across multiple platforms including Switch and Game Pass. Persona 4 Golden was one of the standouts for the poor-selling portable PlayStation Vita. Many consumers did not get to try it because they did not have a Vita. However, a new audience was introduced to the franchise with the 2016 launch of Persona 5.

Persona 4 Golden is a free title on Game Pass, but in the DFC office several people choose the Switch version for $20. The thinking was that this title works well on the portable Switch and $20 is nothing to pay for 40+ hours of entertainment.

Note that as this article was being completed the classic GoldenEye 007 was announced as a January 27 exclusive for both Nintendo Switch Online and Game Pass subscribers. But it appears online play is exclusive to Switch users! DFC did a separate analysis on this but it only highlights our points.

Subscription Services = Value-Add More Than a Complete Solution

The bottom line is that game subscription services seem to work well as a value-add proposition. Nintendo has shown that with Nintendo Switch Online. There are tens of millions of users that will pay $60+ for a game and a cheap mediocre online service. Taking it to the level of a Game Pass requires not only significantly more expenditure but requires giving up a large established revenue stream.

Game Pass is a great service for the consumer. For less than $200 a year, one gets access to all kinds of games. It allows subscribers to save money to spend on Nvidia graphic cards, Nintendo Switch, and PlayStation products. What it does not seem to yet do is drive more revenue to the Xbox side.

The video game market is huge. Asking how many people play video games is like how many watch TV. The answer is basically everyone, the devil is in the details. Surprisingly it is Nintendo and Switch Online that have found an answer that is both compelling for consumers AND the company bottom line.

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jameswoo · 2 years ago

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If you'd like to read an article I wrote on Medium where I lament the current state of the Razer Kraken, both as a product and as a fallen brand/trademark, you can do so here!

This is not a friend link like some of the other links to Medium I've shared on Tumblr, so you may see some messaging about the soft paywall over there.

Razer articles tend to do better and I've got to try and earn a penny on occasion. Thanks for your understanding!

Soon I will post more random screenshots of video games here. I'm a little over halfway through the Callisto Protocol and I'm not hating it as much as I thought I would after all the backlash. It's had some balance changes in patches, but I think its biggest problems are its "old" small scope and its ineptitude at explaining how freeform its own combat system is.

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jameswoo · 2 years ago

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jameswoo · 4 years ago

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Playstation Vita Error C2-12828-1 Help - Written By Sebastian

Always on the road I really enjoy a casual mobile gaming experience. Of course a tablet and a smartphone is great for gaming. But I do use a Nintendo 3ds and a Playstation Vita every now and then.Recently though I ran into a strange issue while playing 'Uncharted Golden Abyss' on my Playstation Vita.While using the game and occasionally while booting up the game I received a tough error and the game would crash.The Error Code: C2-12828-1Time to find a solution.Unfortunately the official Playstation Support Site is not of much help. Really misleading it describes a NAT / networking / demilitarised zone issue: http://community.eu.playstation.com/t5/PS-Vita/Fixing-the-Error-c2-12828-1-issue-on-your-Vita/td-p/15328217But I don't believe this C2-12828-1 is a networking issue at all.From my experience with the issue (very random occurrence, usually involving large chunks of data being loaded, game-brraking) I do not believe it is networking related at all.I would rather side with the other sources I've found on gamefaqs and reddit and the like. There you read a lot of warnings that this bug might get worse over time and it might destroy download data and save data. As in my experience game crashes are mentioned and worse: random shutdowns of the whole system. From all these reports this seems to be a nasty memory/file system error. The Vita uses a proprietary file-system plus heavy encryption. Something along side of heavy use, constant Vita-standby-mode and quick switching between big games may case defects in memory which worsen over time due to read/write activity. Ultimately the whole partition gets damaged and a Vita showing this bug should not be used but rather should be 'fixed' quickly. So how could this bug be fixed?FixBased on: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/656455-madden-nfl-13/64026055In short the only known fix is to backup the data of your Vita and then thoroughly wiping and rebuilding the console's memory and then restoring.Prerequisites for the fix:

Vita System and Data Cable

Sony Content Manager Assistant software for Windows or Mac

Free space on your PC/Mac (if you have a 16GB memory card the. At least 16GB free)

time and patience

Steps to fix C2-12828-1 :

Delete all games and apps you no longer need

Sync trophies / save-data with PSN server and do a full backup of your Vita using Content Manager Assistant. Basically hook up the Vita with a PC running Content Manager Assistant and copy over everything.

Remove any game card from the system.

Turn Vita off completely -> turn Vita on in SAFE MODE -> using Power button, PS button + R trigger to start it up.

At SAFE MODE screen select option (3) to Format Memory Card

Afterwards turn Vita on in SAFE MODE again, and select option (4) to Restore PS Vita System

Once again, get your Vita back to SAFE MODE and select option (2) to Rebuild Database

Turn your Vita on regularly and it should look fresh again. Icons everywhere. Don't bother with changing any settings as the backup has it all; though you will have to re-arrange icons. At this point, go into Settings -> Format -> Format Memory Card (one last time).

Then get back to Settings and connect the Vita to your usual internet connection and sign in to your PSN so that it is authenticated.

Open Content Manager application on the Vita and Restore From Backup - connect to where your backup is stored.

After all is done, the icons are shufffled so get them re-arranged, make sure your time is set right using the internet

For some games the data was apparently so corrupted so it could not be restored. This happened for round about 5 out 30 games. I re-downloaded these games and downloaded save-data from PSN.After all that was done, I was able to use my Playstation Vita as expected. The whole procedure especially re-downloading some larger games was cumbersome but in the end I seem to have a stable system now.

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jameswoo · 7 years ago

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Assault Gunners HD Edition (PlayStation 4) Review

By Gabriel Jones 11.03.2018

Mars has thrived for over 4.6 billion years. Unfortunately, that era of peace and tranquillity has come to an end. Humanity, fearing the imminent destruction of Earth, has started colonising the Red Planet. In order to assist with the unprecedented level of terraforming, ANTs were developed. These automated mechs are controlled via the mother computer on Deimos. However, something seems to have gone wrong, because the ANTs are no longer following orders. Worse, they have started attacking the colonies. In order to squash this uprising, the mobile assault squad, DAT, has been deployed. In Assault Gunners HD Edition, mankind has gotten itself into another fine mess, and only a daring pilot can sort it out.

Inoffensive, that's the word that best describes Assault Gunners HD Edition. Here's a game that's unexceptional, yet also harmless. It doesn't inspire, nor does it aggravate. It is entirely incapable of drawing strong emotions out of those who decide to play it. Who could possibly take interest in such a remarkably bland videogame? After all, gamers are a species that thrive on being pushed to the limit. Joy comes from teetering on the edge of oblivion. Perhaps this title is dedicated to those who have been pushed over the edge. They are stressed out by endless nights of competitive first-person shooters or have dodged one too many bullet patterns. They are exhausted and their nerves are spent, so they require something inoffensive to refresh their spirits, before the next challenge presents itself.

The war for Mars spans 35 missions, most of which can be completed in just a few minutes apiece. Generally, the goal is to destroy all of the ANTs. Despite the peculiar name, these automatons are basically tanks, robots, and ships. They group together in battalions, presumably to overwhelm their enemies with sheer firepower. It's hardly anything to stress over, however, as they are quickly decimated by the DAT Units. Unlike other third-person shooters, mecha or otherwise, ammo is easy to come by, and there's never a need to reload. In almost every situation, pilots are free to hold down that fire button and crush the opposition.

In-between missions, pilots can visit the hangar to outfit their squad. While on the field, it's possible to acquire new equipment. Since up to four DAT Units can participate in battle, a good rule of thumb is to ensure that they all have the best possible armaments. Shotguns are always a safe bet, thanks to their spread and inexplicably long range. A shoulder-mounted cannon is exceptional for crowd control. Melee weapons are unlikely to get any use, unless the pilot has a death wish. Mechs can also be equipped with a variety of ability-enhancing parts, such as improved shields or radar. Again, there aren't any penalties for equipping several top-tier parts, so load up. Development points, also earned during combat, can be invested into more advanced bodies.

ANTs aren't especially durable, nor are they much of a threat by themselves. However, given high enough numbers, they can quickly chew through a DAT's shields and armour. Furthermore, it's nearly impossible to avoid taking damage. Even after several rounds of significant upgrades, these mechs are still large and bulky. Also, their thrusters and shields share the same energy gauge, so they can't dash their way out of a desperate situation. What it all comes down to is a game of numbers and probabilities. Survival is never guaranteed, but the odds can be easily shifted in the player's favour. Strong torsos and legs significantly boost the DAT's defensive capabilities. There's also an add-on that boosts the drop-rate of healing items. A small crowd of hostiles is prone to leaving behind something that will keep the squad's armour in mint condition.

The most noticeable aspect of an inoffensive game is its lack of challenge. Assault Gunners HD Editionwasn't designed to be easy, but ended up that way due to numerous variables. It doesn't take much for enemies to reduce the player's squad to scrap, but the copious healing items ensure that their efforts are usually in vain. It's probably just as well, because otherwise the difficulty would feel really cheap. In some scenarios, ANTs can spawn instantly, sometimes completely surrounding pilots. Enemy ships will blend in with the walls and floors. They are also capable of shooting through solid stone or steel, and that's flat out unfair. If anything, the cheating AI serves as justification for players to take advantage of every game mechanic available to them. There's no reward in fighting honourably.

Alongside the main game, there's also a set of Inferno missions. The goal is to destroy as many ANT waves as possible. Thankfully, restorative items aren't nearly as plentiful as in the campaign, so it's unlikely that pilots will survive for an especially long time. Most players aren't liable to stick around after one or two attempts, because these missions are extremely boring. The moment to moment action simply isn't nearly as exciting as it should be. Whenever an enemy is destroyed, the resulting explosion is about as impressive as a firecracker's. The assortment of weapons available to DAT Units is creatively bankrupt. There aren't any homing lasers, turrets, or anything that could be considered different from the norm.

Cubed3 Rating4/10

SUBPAR

Much like a relic from a forgotten age, Assault Gunners HD Editionstruggles to find its place in today's gaming landscape. There isn't anything wrong with dozens of missions centred on destroying anything that moves. Really, it's the charming simplicity that helps keep this shooter afloat. The main problem is that there just isn't any depth, nuance, or fun. Without those qualities, the game is unable to form an identity. Few people are willing to invest their free time into such an uninspired blast-a-thon. On the plus side, this isn't all that punishing. Thanks to the short missions and generous upgrade system, anyone with nothing better to do can become the saviour of Mars.

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jameswoo · 8 years ago

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