kaitiblake-blog

[kaitiblake-blog]

Week of July 27, 2017

So… We need to talk about the weather. Specifically, we need to talk about the heat. In the words of Steve Spriester, “I’m done with summer. I am so done.”

I think we can all relate to that…at least a little. This ‘heat streak’ has been brutal: we’re going on day #8 in a row of a high of at least 100°. Additionally, if Thursday’s high is at least 100°, it will be the 11th day of 100°+ heat so far this summer.

For perspective, our ‘normal’ high temperature this time of year is around 96°. Here’s the official almanac from Wednesday, July 27th: 

 So, for as long as the National Weather Service has been keeping records, the average high on a day in July has been around 95°. Now, that’s just 5° shy of the temperatures we’ve been battling lately…100°, 101°. That may not seem like a huge difference, especially to Texans in the summertime. We’re tough, am I right?

However, just 5 degrees can make a pretty noticeable difference when it comes to the heat index, or what it feels like to our bodies:

So, if you’ve been thinking that this past week has been a little more toasty than normal, you’d be right.

THE REST OF THE WEEK 

Things are going to get worse before they get better, though. As we head into the upcoming weekend (July 28th, 29th, and 30th), we will likely record our highest temperatures so far this year:

These days will come at the hands of upper-level high pressure, or a ridge.  This feature tends to be prevalent in the summer months, especially in southern-half of the U.S. During the summer, the jet stream in the northern hemisphere doesn’t dip as far south as it does in late-fall, winter, and early-spring.  That typically keeps all the active weather -  low pressure systems, fronts – well north of us:

We’re left with what you may know as a ‘heat high.’ Essentially, upper-level high pressure is associated with a ton of sinking air. Sinking air is typically a double-dose of NO THANK YOU, especially in the dead of summer. 

Firstly, air must rise in order for condensation to occur, so that clouds may form, so that showers & thunderstorms can get going. Upper-level highs literally suppress air, or keep it from rising. So, we typically see minimal cloud cover when upper-level highs are around. If the high is smack above us, skies stay crystal clear. Here’s a look at our South Texas skies on Thursday, the 27th: 

On this day, San Antonio is still sitting on the outer edges of the upper-levle high, so a few afternoon clouds were able to pop-up. 

Sinking air also has an effect on temperatures. Temperatures tend to over-achieve when upper-level highs are involved. Sinking air quite literally piles up on or suppresses the air at the surface. Surface tempertatures are what WE experience on a day-to-day basis. When air piles up, temperatures tends to maximize, or rise well above average…sometimes 10-20 degrees above-average.

Sadly, that’s what we’ll be dealing with through pretty much the end of the month: an upper-level high directly overhead Texas, sending our temperatures to a whopping 103° by Saturday the 29th. 

NEXT WEEK & THE START OF AUGUST

The upper-level high that will be overhead this weekend will move away from Texas by the start of next week. Woohoo! That will a) send temperature back to the upper 90s... (HEY...it’s something...) and b) allow for us to reintroduce low-end rain chances: 

I say our rain chances will be low-end due to the fact that we’ll be at the mercy of some subtle ‘disturbances’ skirtign along the edge of the upper-levle high. These disturbances tend to spark showers and storms in the afternoon hours, some of which can affect South Texas. However, the placement of these showers and storms can be pretty erratic, and hard to nail down until the day-of. That’s why we’ve brought-in 20% chances early next week: 

As we Texans know...summer won’t last forever. Here’s something to look forward to: 

See you next blog! ~Kaiti 

[kaitiblake-blog]

Weather Blog: Week of May 22, 2017

Welcome to another week of wild Texas weather! 

I know many of you were disappointed in how rainfall was distributed this past weekend. Many folks saw some soaking rain, but not everyone. I wish we could have given each of you the exact amount of rain you wanted. However, that’s beyond the scope of our powers (at the moment). Thanks for turning to us in the first place, and thanks for understanding that we work hard for YOU… Sometimes Mom Nature just likes to keep us scientists humble.

Monday evening through Tuesday evening will be pretty unsettled as we wait on our next front: clouds, high humidity, and hit-or-miss rain chances.

Monday Night: Clouds will fill back in overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. We still have the same lingering frontal boundary draped across the Coastal Bend that’s been there all weekend. 

That will be the focus for some showers tonight, but don’t count on muchat all. Coverage will be low, at 20%. The low pressure system that will bring us our next cold front will fire some severe storms in far West Texas this evening, but those won’t make it to us.

Tuesday: Cold front day! We’ll have to keep a close eye on the progress of tomorrow’s cold front, but it looks like it will swing through in the early afternoon hours. Winds will already be northeasterly, but will turn due north after the front passes. Tomorrow’s front will bring with it another chance for showers and storms, but they won’t be very widespread. Coverage will be at 40%, with a lean to the south of Bexar County. Why there?

Glad you asked! 

Remember that stalled front from last weekend? When this new front runs into that front, that’ll provide more of a focus for some thunderstorms to get going tomorrow afternoon and evening. Best chances will be for anyone south of I-10. A small number of severe thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and some damaging winds.

Post-Cold Front: Wednesday will be sunny, a little cooler, and A LOT less humid! 

Trough after trough coming out of the western United States will keep out weather pattern moving along quickly.

South winds return by Thursday, and humidity will be back in the ‘gross’ range by Friday morning.

Friday and the Weekend: Hot…and More Rain Chances

There will be a persistent surface low pressure system to our northwest Friday through Sunday. This will keep things breezy for us, but really won’t do much else. The dry line will be too far west to bring us any decent thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, yet another cold front will be sagging south across the Lone Star State. As of right now, all signs point to this front seeping into our northernmost counties (think the Hill Country, Comal, Hays, Blanco counties) by late in the day Sunday. That alone will be the trigger for some thundershowers. However, there will be another player in the game…

An upper-level disturbance will be moving into northern Mexico late on Sunday. This will be similar to the upper-level feature that brought us Sunday’s (5/21) rain. However, it’s looking like this upper-low will be a littleeee more potent, and may lead to more widespread rain than last Sunday. 

Our two ‘big’ models aren’t in total agreement on timing just yet, so we’ll be watching that and tweaking as necessary.

Bottom line: that upper-level feature is going to mosey across Texas through Memorial Day and the middle of next week, and thus keep rain chances around. Stay tuned! 

Send your forecast questions my way any time on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/kaitiblake/

[kaitiblake-blog]

Week of March 2nd-March 9th

Happy Thursday! Well, we’re two(ish) days into meteorological spring: March, April, and May. If you’re anything like me, then you may think it’s felt like spring for a while now. Aside from some cold mornings to end the work week, we’re going to keep the spring vibe going headed into the weekend…

Thursday and Friday: After Wednesday’s cold front, the rest of the week will be quiet and cool. Morning lows will be in the 30s and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s. However, even today (Thursday), you’ll notice those high, thin clouds in the sky. Those are cirrus clouds! They’re cirrus-ly cool…

I know...I’m funny. 

They tend to look pretty wispy, because they’re literally being moved by the jet stream winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. Follow the motion of these wispy clouds, and that’ll tell you how the jet stream is moving. 

Anyway, we’re going to see a lot of those in the sky Thursday and Friday...especially Friday. I think they’ll thicken-up a little more by then, giving the appearance of mostly cloudy skies. They’ll be streaming-in ahead of an upper-level low pressure system, or a cutoff low.

This low will be responsible for our less-than-impressive rain chances on Saturday. It looks to be a soggy weekend well south of us, in the Hill Country and closer to the I-10 corridor. However, our rain chances will only be at 20% Saturday. Odds favor those of you south of I-20.

Sunday and Early Next Week: Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast beyond Sunday. What is certain is that a cold front will arrive early on Tuesday of next week. Beyond that, models have a poor handle on things. How big of a temperature drop we’ll see AND how much rain we could get vary greatly at this time.

The biggest difference between the ‘big 2′ - i.e. the GFS model and the European model - is how much oomph this front will have behind it.

The GFS sends a deeper, stronger trough (or, upper level low pressure system) through the central United States. This would make Tuesday’s cold front stronger, and drop our temperatures more Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. It would also help us out with rain chances…  A little more jet stream support as the front is moving through would give a little extra lift for some shower and weak thunderstorm activity.

The Euro is spitting-out a scenario that is, essentially, the opposite. It keeps the trough and strongest jet stream energy further north, which would: 1. not cool us down as much behind the front and 2. not bring us any rain with the front.

Due to licensing issues, I can’t share Euro model images with you. Booooo. 

I’m not completely sold on either scenario, but lean more toward the GFS right now: cooler and a slightly better rain chance, albeit not very high to begin with.

Here’s where I have you rain chances, for now:

At best, I’ll take Tuesday’s chances up to 30% or 40% in the next day or so, if need-be. Stay tuned!

[kaitiblake-blog]

Make Some Room in Your Home for Old Man Winter...

A very happy Monday to you! I hope you enjoyed the rainy, cool weekend…it sure made for some good sleep. We’ll make a transition from rainy & cool to downright FRIGID before week’s end.

End of the Rain Monday: The upper-level disturbance responsible our rainy weekend has gotten itself “stuck” off to our southwest. That’ll keep some low-end rain chances in the forecast today for the Big Country – a little higher in the Heartland: 30% and 50%, respectively. Any shower activity today will just be more of that light to moderate rainfall.

By Monday night, we’ll all have a dry forecast headed into Tuesday.

Turning Our Attention to the Temperatures: The first of two fronts this week will work through Tuesday morning. Now, we’ve talked before about how the upper-levels of the atmosphere have a direct result on what happens at the surface… I.E. a dip in the jet stream, or a trough, usually results in more active weather = surface low pressure systems, cold fronts, etc.

The dip in the jet stream associated with cold front #1 is not as intense as the one with front #2 will be (spoiler alert!). That’ll be the difference between the two, and you’ll see that easily reflected in your forecast temperatures. 

That’s also why I’m calling from #1 our “baby” front, emoji and all.

We’ll take high temperatures from the mid 50s Monday into the upper 40s and low 50s Tuesday afternoon. Not a big change, but it’ll be a touch cooler. 

Temperatures will rebound a little Wednesday, thanks to a south wind. Highs will be in the mid 50s on Wednesday afternoon. Our little rebound will be short-lived, though....

Cold front #2 has a lot more support from Jack Frost, and therefore, bigger consequences. The dip in the jet stream associated with front #2 reaches down a lot further into the Plains and the Midwest. This just means that much colder air can make it much further south. 

It’s like Canada is going to open their gates and share all of their cold air with the United States. How kind of ‘em! 

Enter our ‘Old Man Winter’ emoji... Which is just the old man emoji, called the Old Man Winter emoji by me. He’s tagging along with this second front, and will send temperatures into the mid to upper 20s by Thursday morning. 

Wind speeds will pick up to between 10 and 20 MPH, beginning Wednesday evening. Gusts will be as high as 30 MPH through early Thursday morning. 

Temperatures in the 20s + a 10 to 20 MPH breeze = seriously low wind chills! Keep in mind that wind chills tell us what it feels like... Those numbers will be in the teens early on Thursday. 

Thursday morning looks to be the one day this week we have to deal with it feeling THAT cold. Wind speeds will be much lower by Friday morning, though we’ll still be in the low to mid 20s to start the day. 

Looking Ahead: Things improve nicely by the upcoming weekend... Try highs in the 60s! 

Here’s your 7-Day...

[kaitiblake-blog]

The Weather This Week: 10/31-11/6

Hello & Happy Halloween! It’s hard to believe October is already in the rear view mirror. It’s been quite the month… The Abilene airport has seen only three days this month with measurable rainfall. Abilene will finish the month 2.50” BELOW-NORMAL in terms of rainfall. That’s not ideal, by any means.

However, it is important to mention that some folks have gotten a decent amount of rain this month. The frontal boundaries we’ve had move through didn’t spread the rainfall love out very much, but there HAS been rain out there! Below are some totals from when our most recent front moved through.

Speaking of cold fronts, we’ve got one of those on the way this week!

We’ll finally see a pattern change by the middle of this week. Upper-level high pressure, or a ridge, has been with us since LAST weekend. Tuesday of last week was really the only day we saw it break down a touch, and that was when a shortwave moved through. Otherwise, it’s been free to keep us warm and dry… That’s exactly what has happened.

Monday & Tuesday: Subtle changes, but still very warm…

The ridge will be holding steady on Monday of this week, with only a few fair-weather clouds expected during the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s again. Monday will be the 6th day in a row with a high above 80 degrees. That doesn’t seem too crazy, but it is when you consider that our normal high is 73 degrees.

We’ll see an increase in cloud cover by Tuesday morning, as the ridge starts to move east. That essentially just opens the door for more clouds to sneak in, and (eventually) for our cold front to arrive on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday will still be in the mid 80s...

I know. Scary. 

Monday and Tuesday will also be very breezy – and sometimes gusty – days. A surface low pressure system will park itself north of the Texas panhandle, creating a pressure gradient. Pressure gradients always spell an increase in wind speeds, and that will translate to south winds 10-20 MPH both days. Wind gusts will be near 25 MPH on Monday and closer to 30 MPH on Tuesday.

Fun Fact: The pressure gradients that I just mentioned set-up most frequently in our part of the world when low pressure system form off of the Rocky Mountains. The closer we are to the center of said low pressure system, the windier it will be! Many times, like on Monday and Tuesday, the surface low will be to our north, and actually looks to sit right over the Texas panhandle and then meander into Oklahoma. Ever heard, “Oooooooklahoma where the wind comes sweeping down the plain?” Yes – weather patterns that lead to windy days sometimes quite literally come sweeping off of the Rockies and into the Plains. They knew what they were talking about! ;)

Wednesday & Thursday: Noticeable changes arrive…

A cold front is set to wander through the Big Country on Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Skies will be partly cloudy on Wednesday and highs will be in the low to mid 80s ahead of the front. Rain chances will be reserved for the Heartland and the far northwestern Big Country on Wednesday. Some showers are possible in the Heartland as big time south winds pump in moisture from the Gulf. The rain chance for the NW Big Country will come late in the day, as the front starts to progress southeast.

The best chances for rain with this front will be overnight Wednesday through early Thursday morning. The fact that the front will swing through overnight AND the lack of any support from the jet stream will take any severe weather concerns out of the discussion. That’s good news. Expect showers and some non-severe storms overnight, especially north of I-20. That’s where models are putting the bulk of the rainfall, topping-out at locally highest totals of 1 inch. The front will keep rolling south Thursday morning, but will have less and less support to produce a lot of rainfall a) as the night progresses (no sun = less heat = less instability) and b) as it gets further and further detached from its trough (upper-level support).

What’s a trough, lady?! Here’s a blog from a few weeks ago that explains: http://kaitiblakektab.tumblr.com/post/151290997639/the-weather-this-week-103-109

Regardless, cooler air will filter-in behind the front, and afternoon temperatures on Thursday look to top-out just in the mid 70s.

Friday & The Coming Weekend: More seasonable temperatures…

The front will clear us by the end of the day Thursday, setting us up for a cooler day Friday. Highs will be in the mid 70s again! Most of us will stay dry Friday, but there will be a lingering chance for rain in our westernmost counties. It won’t be anything that will affect football games!

Saturday will be similar. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with rain chances confined to just the western Big Country.

The reason rain chances will be limited to the western Big Country both Friday and Saturday has everything to do with the reason we’ll ALL see more widespread rain by Sunday. A cutoff low, or a an upper-level trough, is going to be digging into the southwest US both days.

A cutoff low is very similar to a shortwave, except cutoff lows are usually more potent, or have more “oomp” behind them. We talked about shortwaves last week. Here’s that link: http://kaitiblakektab.tumblr.com/post/152252050034/the-weather-this-week-1024-1030-so-close-to

By Sunday, it will keep moving east, but will be close enough to us that it will send a big push of rain our way. It looks as though this rainfall will be very widespread across the Big Country, and could be very beneficial. The associated rain and cloud cover will help keep temperatures in the low 70s Sunday afternoon.

Here’s the Extended Forecast...

Drought Monitor for this week: Still drought-free, despite a dry October...

[kaitiblake-blog]

The Weather This Week: 10/24-10/30 (So Close to Halloween!)

Happy Monday, y’all! That’s not an oxymoron. I hope everyone had a nice weekend! It started off cool, but afternoon temperatures were back in the low 80s Saturday and Sunday.

We’re getting so close to Halloween... So close, in fact, that I’m seeing more and more Christmas stuff in stores! It’s madness. I LOVE Christmas... I listen to the music all year ‘round and watch Christmas movies pretty often, too. But, even I’m starting to feel guilty for indulging before Halloween arrives. That’s when you know it’s gotten out of hand! So, we’ll keep it all Halloween here...for now. ;) 

Let’s get to the forecast...

After some big swings in temperatures the past couple of weeks, things will stay on an even-keel through the coming weekend. High temperatures will fluctuate between the low and the mid 80s. Now, when you compare that to where we were a couple of days last week (low 90s!), the 80s don’t seem THAT bad… However, our climatological “normal” high is only in the mid 70s. I.E. that’s where our temperatures SHOULD be this time of year… Not quite as fun when you think about it that way. 

The culprit: Upper-level high pressure, or ridging. This type of pattern suppresses rain chances, and increases temperatures. This is the pattern we typically fear in the summertime, as it can bring us our hottest stretches of weather of the year. (That was the case this year, when our nine-day 100-degree streak was going on.)

Monday & Tuesday: We’ll see a few kinks in the ridge, before it strengthens a little more by mid-week.

Kinks? What you talkin’ bout, Willis? 

Sometimes, upper-level disturbances, or shortwaves, will pass through an area where a ridge is already in place. These shortwaves can interrupt the ‘hot & sunny’ weather pattern that ridges support. This was happening yesterday and this morning. There was an increase in cloud cover for all of us yesterday, and even some light rain in the Heartland very early this morning.

That shortwave is on its way out, and we’ll see mostly sunny skies return for everyone this afternoon Monday afternoon. 

Another shortwave is on its heels, though… This second disturbance will send an increase in cloud cover our way Monday night, as well as a small chance for isolated showers Tuesday afternoon.

Our rain chances Tuesday will be nothing to write home about. When shortwaves pass by a ridge, rain chances can be pretty slim. Ridges support subsidence, or sinking air. This translates to a lack of instability in the atmosphere = no rain.

Showers and storms NEED at least some instability to get going. Shortwaves can provide a spark of this instability – i.e. they can open a brief window for our atmosphere to say, “Okay. I could drop some rain right now.” 

Didn’t you know that the atmosphere talks? Am I the only one that hears it? 

However, it all depends on the situation at hand…

1) How strong is the ridge already in place? Is it so strong that there is NO room for the shortwave to set off its spark? OR...is it juuuust weak enough that the shortwave could tap-into the atmosphere, and fire-off some showers or storms?

2) What are conditions at the surface? The higher the air and dew point temperatures, the easier it is for rain to get going and the more likely it is that we’ll see some precipitation out of the shortwave.

3) How strong is the shortwave itself? Some pack more of a punch than others… Just like the ridges, they can be weaker or stronger, which can hurt or help rain chances, respectively.

In our case on Tuesday, our atmosphere will be unstable, but the ridge will have a cap in place. This cap will act to suppress any wannabe shower or thunderstorm activity. Additionally, there’s not going to be much support from the upper-levels tagging along with the shortwave to potentially break the cap = make it rain. 

Models keep spitting out a few showers tomorrow afternoon, but chances are that they just see the shortwave and how warm it will be and think: RAIN! I don’t buy it, and am calling for just an isolated shower in the far eastern Big Country and Heartland Tuesday afternoon. The overwhelming majority of us will just see partly cloudy skies on Tuesday. 

Wednesday and Beyond: Ridging returns in full force for the rest of the week, and it won’t be disturbed by and kinks! 

That spells sunny skies & warm afternoons for us. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s (think 83°-86°) through the end of the week. 

DROUGHT MONITOR 

We could use some rain, despite being ALL CLEAR, drought monitor-wise. We’re 1.88″ BELOW normal in terms of rainfall for the month of October. It hasn’t come back to hurt us yet, but we could certainly use all we can get headed into the cold-weather months. 

*Last week’s blog had some information regarding the fall & winter outlook... Check it out here if you missed it: http://kaitiblakektab.tumblr.com/post/151952581994/whats-ahead-for-the-cold-weather-months* 

Here’s your Extended Forecast:

[kaitiblake-blog]

What’s Ahead for the Cold-Weather Months?

I've had several questions about what's ahead for the fall and winter seasons. As we hit the halfway point of October, it seems like the perfect time to address some trends we could see in our weather over next several months.

While I can't tell you (YET) if you’ll be able to wear your warmest sweater on Christmas Eve or if there will be snow on New Year's Day, I can share with you some expected trends, based on global weather patterns.

Probably the biggest player in the game this year is the transition from El Nino to La Nina. The current state of the ENSO, or the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, is "La Nina Watch." Essentially, a strong El Nino had been in place through early this year, and now things are beginning to transition toward a La Nina pattern. However, it's not fully La Nina-ed (not a real verb) just yet. However, it is expected that there will be a lean toward La Nina-like patterns through this fall and winter.

Image from: https://www.climate.gov/enso

So, what does that mean for OUR weather?!

When La Nina is out in 'full force,' so to speak, that spells warmer and drier weather for us. In fact, it's a safe bet that the whole southern U.S. will have a warmer and drier winter. The opposite is true for the northern U.S. They have a cold and wet winter during La Nina. Now, I did mention above that La Nina isn't fully in effect, but it's still a very good bet that our winter weather will still lean toward warmer and drier.

When El Nino is in effect, the water in the eastern Pacific is warmer. This helps to amplify the pacific jet stream, which sends us more active weather: more troughs = more potential surface systems = more fronts = more chances for precipitation AND cooler temperatures.

When La Nina is in effect, the water in the Eastern Pacific is cooler. This takes the ooomph out of the pacific jet stream, and the polar jet stream becomes more of a focal point for active weather. This polar jet stream is closer to the poles, so it's displaced further north than we are here in the southern U.S. In turn, the active weather stays further north, too: More snow and colder weather for the northern U.S.

Bottom line: we will have some big cool downs this winter, but they'll be short-lived. We'll also have some very warm periods. (We've already gotten a little taste of that these past couple of weeks!) There will also be some wintry precipitation (sleet, snow, freezing rain), but expect occurrences to be few and pretty far between. I.e. you may not get as much use out of your heavy-duty winter gear this year...but, you WILL need to pull it out a few times!

Here's a look at some temperature changes we'll see over the next week and a half or so...

This is reminiscent of what kind of patterns we should expect through the winter months: cool-down, warm-up, cool down warm-up.... Expect the warm-ups to be more influential and memorable than the cool downs.They’ll be more exaggerated, while the cool-downs will not be as strong.

[kaitiblake-blog]

The Weather This Week: 10/10 - 10/16

Hello & Happy Columbus Day! After a nearly perfect fall weekend, it may have been hard to get back in the groove today. I feel your pain! Throw some pumpkin-spice creamer in your coffee. It helps!

Speaking of pumpkins… Monday puts us exactly three weeks from Halloween! It also puts us less than TWO weeks from the premiere of the Walking Dead…just saying. 

Last weekend was pretty top-notch, weather wise. Temperatures stayed in the mid 70s each afternoon. We did have some cloud cover around, particularly out west. Some of that filtered-in each day, but overall, it was great out there.

The coming week looks quiet, especially compared to last week. We don’t have a big shakeup coming, like last Friday’s cold front.

Ugh. Goodbye cooler weather... We hardly knew ye...

Monday will be another nice day. Skies will be sunny, but temperatures will be starting to inch upward. We’ll see highs in the low 80s.

An upper-level ridge will start to build in from the southwest Monday, which is going to really start to affect our temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Last week, I talked about the upper-levels of the atmosphere, but our forecast was really focused around upper-level troughs. Flashback: Upper-level low = tough = surface low pressure = more active weather for us here on the ground. Ridges are essentially the opposite… (Now I want some Ruffles. Sigh.)

An upper-level ridge is an atmospheric feature that is usually associated with surface high pressure, and more benign weather…i.e. sunshine. What’s not so benign is what can happen to temperatures at the surface if a ridge is strong enough… Temperatures are often above-average when a ridge is in place, and sometimes well above-average. It all depends on the strength of the ridge. During our warmer months, especially during summertime, the jet stream is displaced further north, so any dips (troughs=active weather & potentially cooler air) stay further north, latitude-wise. That makes us here in the Lone Star State way more vulnerable to becoming influenced by a ridge, which means H-O-T days for us. Think back to our nine day 100-degree heat streak this past summer. That was the ridge in action! 

Back to the forecast: As that ridge hangs around Monday through Wednesday, our afternoon temperatures will climb from the low 80s Monday to the upper 80s (90 not our of the question) by Wednesday.

Luckily, we won’t be stuck in that pattern for too long.

A trough will start digging through the Plains on Wednesday, spitting out a surface low and a cold front. I’m expecting the front itself to make it through on Thursday morning, but without much (if any) rain, in-tow. We’re not going to see a big influx of cooler air, either. We’re going to be way too displaced from the trough and surface low pulling cold air down from Canada.

Being so displaced will cause the front to really wash-out southeast of us during the day on Thursday. This frontal boundary will intermingle with a humid  & warmer air mass in place over central & north Texas, bringing-in a chance for some showers and non-severe storms Thursday afternoon.

By Friday, that front won’t really matter anymore. But, we’ll still have a chance for rain. The culprit this time is another trough, though this dip in the jet stream will not be as pronounced and will not have as much “oomph” behind it. We call these shortwaves, or upper-level disturbances. They don’t send surface low pressure systems to the surface, like troughs do, but they do provide a spark of energy overhead, which almost always results in rain chances. This will be the case Thursday night through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts won’t be high. This disturbance will swing some showers and non-severe storms through pretty fast, before we clear-out in time for football on Friday night. 

A ridge is back for the weekend and the start of next week. That’ll send temperatures back to the upper 80s and low 90s, a good 10+ degrees warmer than normal.

Don’t lose your head... HA! We’ll continue to see our share of cool-downs...and warm-ups...and cool-downs. See where I’m going? 

Here’s the 7-Day....

DROUGHT MONITOR 

While we’ll always take more rain, we’re sitting pretty as far as the Drought Monitor is concerned. Everyone is drought-free. 

[kaitiblake-blog]

The Weather This Week: 10/3 - 10/9

Good Morning & Happy Monday, Big Country! I hope you enjoyed the beautiful weather we had this weekend. Get ready for the first full week of October! 

High temperatures were in the 70s on Friday, but they rebounded into the low 80s Saturday, and the mid  80s yesterday. So, yes… Things are starting to change again!

There are a number of things going on this week, weather-wise. It’s almost better to split the week into two halves… 

1st Half: Monday through Wednesday

2nd Half: Thursday through the weekend.

Monday – Wednesday: Early-Week Storms

First things first: We’ve got to start at the top - of the atmosphere! 

Teaching Moment: You’ll hear me talk about an “upper-level system” sometimes in my forecasts. The upper-levels of the atmosphere drive pretty much everything that happens at the surface. For example: If we have dry line storms in the forecast (Hint: we do), that’s a surface-based phenomenon I.e. the dry line is a surface feature. It separates high dew points from low dew points. However, dry lines are most commonly associated with a surface low pressure system… enter the big red L you always see on maps. Surface lows are a product of a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

What’s a trough? Like what a horse drinks out of?

Okay, no. A trough is a dip in the jet stream (or, the upper-levels of the atmosphere). That spells active weather downwind of said trough. That active weather usually stems from a surface low pressure system.

Image from http://www.weatherbell.com/

Condensed Version: Dip in jet stream = surface low pressure = better chances for showers & storms.

Back to the forecast…

We’ll see a weaker trough work east toward us on Monday. That’ll spit-out a surface low NW of the Texas panhandle. This low will have a cold front and dry line tacked onto it. The dry line will be the focus for some Monday afternoon and evening storms well west of us. As the sun sets and things cool down, any storms will begin to weaken, though showers and storms will continue to be possible through the overnight hours. This chance will be primarily for the western Big Country.

Image from http://www.weatherbell.com/

On Tuesday, the surface low and pair of fronts will move further east, as the upper-level trough moves further east, too. This will put the dry line in the western Big Country Tuesday afternoon. With dew points high on the eastern side of the dry line – i.e. where we are – and temperatures in the upper 80s, there will be the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms.

By and far, the higher severe weather threat will be to our north, closer to the center of the surface low. However, the Big Country still could see a small number of severe storms, capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

The surface low I’ve mentioned up to this point will still be meandering around on Wednesday, and its weak cold front will be draped off to our northwest. The trough responsible for this low will be lifting up and away from us. This will remove any good chance for rain for us on Wednesday.

Thursday – Sunday: Stronger Late-Week Cold Front

By Thursday, a larger, more potent trough will be setting-up over the western United States. This trough will drop a surface low in the Great Plains on Thursday, which will have a strong cold front attached to it. This front will make a run at the Big Country Thursday evening, and looks to swing through by Friday morning. The best chances for showers and storms this week will be Thursday night through Friday morning.

Image from http://www.weatherbell.com/

There are some minor disparities in the timing of the front. One of the “big” models I look at has been consistent in clearing the front through, while another has been wishy-washy. That wishy-washy model keeps rain around through early Saturday. I left-in a small chance for rain early on Saturday to account for this. If things start to learn back toward the other scenario more, we’ll take that rain chance out. Bottom line: The weekend looks overall very nice again…cooler and dry.

Tropics Tie-In

Hurricane Matthew is stirring-up trouble in the Caribbean. It’s track will be largely dependent on how strong and how fast the trough that brings us our cold front on Friday moves east across the United States. A stronger trough will keep Matthew further east, and away from the east coast this weekend. One model (GFS) supports this scenario…it’s also the model that clears the front out by Friday afternoon. Another model (the Euro) weakens the trough and allows for Matthew to edge a little farther west…closer to the U.S. coastline.

Image from http://www.weatherbell.com/

While Matthew won’t impact us directly, it’s eventual track will have a lot to do with the trough and cold front that will affect us on Thursday and Friday. A more eastward track for Matthew is favored now, suggesting a stronger frontal passage for us. 

Here’s your Extended Forecast for the week...

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New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 7/15/2016 11:59 PM to 7/16/2016 12:45 AM CDT for Knox County. More information at

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New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 7/15/2016 7:19 PM to 8:15 PM CDT for Haskell County. More information at

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New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 7/15/2016 7:08 PM to 7:45 PM CDT for Stonewall County. More information at

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New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 7/15/2016 5:47 PM to 6:45 PM CDT for Haskell County, Throckmorton County. More information at

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New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 7/14/2016 7:56 PM to 9:00 PM CDT for Kent County, King County, Stonewall County. More information at

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New event. Areal Flood Advisory from 7/9/2016 10:18 PM to 7/10/2016 1:15 AM CDT for Mills County. More information at

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New event. Areal Flood Advisory from 7/9/2016 10:03 PM to 7/10/2016 12:00 AM CDT for Brown County, Coleman County. More information at

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New event. Areal Flood Advisory from 7/9/2016 8:45 PM to 10:45 PM CDT for Callahan County, Taylor County, Jones County, Shackelford County. More information at