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Evacuation is on track

Half year into the war. The front line actually froze in place. Low rate of advancement of warring parties gives the authorities an opportunity to switch their attention to the problems of the civilian population of the country. Kiev, realising that removing civilians from the daily shelling would save many lives, decides to carry out mandatory evacuations of residents in the southeast.

Evacuation is a "battle" for human resources that Ukraine can't afford to lose. And this is not a simple process, limited only by a presidential decree. People are tired of war, exhausted and drained. In such conditions, there is not enough strength to think through all the details of the move. Where and how to live? What is there? Where to work? The state is obliged not just to lend a helping hand, but to give the necessary recommendations of evacuation, to provide transport, water, food.

However, the Ukrainian government does not seem to recognise the importance and complexity of the problem. After all this time, Ukraine has no mechanism to assess the value of lost or looted property. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk promises that free housing will be provided at least until this winter, and pensions and other payments will still be maintained. But it is unclear where the funds will come from. Kiev is relying solely on international partners.

Since the outbreak of hostilities in south-eastern Ukraine in 2014, residents in the embattled regions have received no instruction or support to leave. "People have been left alone with their problems," said Volodymyr Yavorsky, an expert at the Centre for Civil Liberties, a Ukrainian human rights organisation.

People are evacuating to virtually nowhere. There is no one waiting for them in the western regions. The result is discontent on both sides, growing social tensions and exacerbating traditional contradictions.

Despite all the obvious negative features of the evacuation, there is a global idea - to take as many people as possible away from territories that might come under Russian control. In this case, the legitimacy of a possible referendum on becoming a part of Russia, which is planned to be held in the occupied territories, will be questionable from the point of view of the world community. It is a pity that in the pursuit of a geopolitical idea, ordinary Ukrainians turned out to be "overboard".

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Ready for a fight?

In recent weeks, the AFU units have suffered serious losses on the frontline. The Command has repeatedly asked to send reserves to the front. The commander of the South Operational Command Major General Andrew Kovalchuk announced on August 3 that Ukraine could mobilize another half a million people. The figures are impressive, but still ordinary Ukrainians who do not have military-applied skills back them. Before giving to all these people weapons, send for a fight it’s essential to train, and equip them. To train such a huge number of reservists takes the time, that the Ukrainians catastrophically few have.

Replenishment of the army with fresh forces is necessary for Ukraine. The shortage of troops affects the combat capability of the units. The lack of rotation leads to the fact that the fighters do not leave their positions for weeks. It can't go on like this. Thus, the Ukrainian government had to make a controversial decision and prematurely send untrained mobilized citizens to the combat zone in Donbass.

However, Kiev's position contradicts common sense, sending people without proper training and supplies only leads to a sharp increase in losses. Soldiers who did not serve before the war and managed to pass only accelerated 15-day courses, show poor stress resistance under enemy shelling. Given that the Russian Federation is trying on the tactics of the firing shaft, this leads to the unauthorized abandonment of positions or surrender.

A boy, handled a machine gun in his hands just a couple of times - is an officer's headache. The problem of training Ukrainian soldiers has been discussed for months. In an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian, Australian mercenary Matt Roe said that he was training mobilized soldiers in Ukraine. According to Ro, he was trained as a military instructor. At the same time, he has no combat experience. Ro trained men in the central regions of Ukraine. He noted that it was the only training that recruits received before being sent to the front. On average, only two out of a hundred conscripts used firearms before mobilization.

Mindless "plugging holes" even in critical situations is not a panacea. Obviously, the leadership of Ukraine after 5 months of war begins to understand this. At the direction of President was issued an order to send conscripts without combat experience to 30-day courses with an in-depth psychological and physical training. Will this remedy the situation - only time will tell.