orientalseed

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东子证券舆情大数据研报

东子证券舆情大数据指标（一） 【海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数】

海外中国证券市场情绪谨慎

东子证券 2024–11–13 9:30:00

今日，东子证券发布的“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”显示为52.9，与昨日相比下降4.7%，国际投资者对海外中国证券市场有所谨慎。这一变化主要是由于投资者对中美关系未来走向的担忧，尤其是关于对华鹰派人士可能出任美国最高外交官的消息，引发了市场对贸易和关税问题可能采取更强硬立场的担忧。

大华继显的执行董事Steven Leung指出，市场目前普遍担心特朗普政府会加速推出对华不利政策，并且这些政策的强硬程度可能超出市场预期。这种担忧情绪导致国际投资者对海外中国证券市场持更加谨慎的态度。

在全球经济环境下，瑞银全球财富管理作为全球最大的财富管理公司之一，也下调了对中国股市的预测。其理由主要是关税问题引发的市场波动以及刺激措施的效果不如预期。瑞银的这一举动在同行中显得尤为突出，因为它率先下调了对中国股市的展望，因为中国股市在9月底开始的上涨之后继续失去动力。

澳新银行研究部的分析师赵鹏则进一步分析了本周股市的表现，认为主要受到对中美关系未来悲观情绪的影响。他指出，这种影响是持久且长期的，短期内不太可能发生根本性改变。这也意味着，投资者对中国股市的信心可能需要更长时间来恢复。

此外，大和资本市场也发布了一份报告，指出当前市场缺乏“增量刺激”，这可能会给投资者的热情泼上一盆冷水。报告预测，在没有新的刺激措施的情况下，中国股市短期内可能会回落，这一观点进一步加剧了市场对未来走势的担忧。

综上所述，当前海外中国证券市场受到多方面因素的共同影响，尤其是中美关系的紧张局势和关税问题的不确定性，导致市场情绪谨慎。

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图：东子证券“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”

✭指数说明：东子证券“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”是全球首个监测全球媒体和机构对当日中国股市做多情绪的指数，该指数以世界顶级媒体每日对中国政治、经济、外交、股市等方面的评论为基础，依托大数据算法得出对中国股市的乐观、悲观意愿值，数值越高表明做多中国股市意愿越强。

东子证券舆情大数据指标（二） 【海外中国证券-当日证券新闻指数】

消息面对海外中国证券市场呈一定利空

东子证券 2024–11–13 9:30:00

今日，东子证券发布的“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”录得-1.1，这一数据无疑为市场带来了一定利空。同时，“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”为-0.98，消息面对港股呈一定利空。这两项指数的弱势表现，无疑为今日市场带来一定负面影响。

今天盘后，中国国务院公布了修订后的《全国年节及纪念日放假办法》，自2025年1月1日��，全体公民放假的假日增加2天。这一政策被视为刺激消费的开始，预示着未来可能还有更多刺激消费的政策出台。然而，从短期来看，该政策对市场情绪的提振作用可能有限，因为市场更关注的是当前的经济形势。

海外市场，值得关注的是欧洲的股市，集体暴跌。表明特朗普胜选的影响仍然很强烈，对整个欧元区产生了影响。中国资产方面，中概股指数大跌4.5%，富时中国A50也出现跳水，人民币汇率继续弱势！显示出海外投资者对中国资产的风险偏好有所下降。

综合来看，今日海外中国证券市场面临一定的利空因素。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家媒体中与新加坡富时中国A50相关的宏观、政策、经济、行业等新闻报道，对所有新闻的属性、影响力进行评判，最后通过东子证券新闻舆情模型综合计算得出当日新闻分值，以此揭示新闻信息对富时中国A50的利好、利空属性。

✭指数说明：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”数值越高表明其对股市的利好性越大，反之亦然。负0.5以下为利空、负0.5至0.8为中性、0.8以上为利好。

图2：东子证券“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家媒体关于中国港股的新闻报道，对相关所有新闻的属性、影响力进行评判，最后通过东子证券新闻舆情模型综合计算得出当日新闻分值，以此揭示新闻信息对港股的利好、利空属性。

✭指数说明：东子证券“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”数值越高表明其对股市的利好性越大，反之亦然。负1以下为利空、负1至1为中性、1以上为利好。

东子证券舆情大数据指标（三） 【海外中国证券-当日机构舆情指数】

海外中国证券市场沽压增大

东子证券 2024–11–13 9:30:00

今日，“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”为50.8，较昨日环比下降22%，特朗普风险打压市场，使得短线情绪逐步弱化，当前市场多空力量相对均衡，博弈特征明显。

“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”下跌9%，最终收盘于36.7，短线情绪与指数同步回落走低至低迷区，这反映了市场参与者对港股市场的悲观预期。特别是，特朗普（川普）上台可能带来的外资对港股风险溢价的增加，这一预期加剧了外资的观望态度，他们可能更加谨慎地评估港股市场的风险和回报。大市成交金额达2,342亿元，较上日多一成半，沽压增大。

总之，当前市场情绪相对低迷，投资者需谨慎对待市场波动。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家国际投行、100家国际财经媒体关于新加坡富时中国A50分析文章和研报近100篇，再通过相关软件进行关键词提取、对关键词多空属性进行分析等数据处理，得出当日富时A50股市多方、空方力量分布比例。

✭指数说明：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”数值越大表明机构对股市的做多热情越高，反之亦然。48以下为看跌、48至52为看平、52以上为看涨。

图2：东子证券“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家国际投行、100家国际财经媒体关于中国港股分析文章和研报近200篇，再通过相关软件进行关键词提取、对关键词多空属性进行分析等数据处理，得出当日港股股市多方、空方力量分布比例。

✭指数说明：东子证券“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”数值越大表明机构对股市的做多热情越高，反之亦然。48以下为看跌、48至52为中性、52以上为看涨。

东子证券舆情大数据指标（���） 【海外中国证券-当日盘前预测】

海外中国证券市场存在小跌的可能

东子证券 2024–11–13 9:30:00

今日，预期新加坡富时中国A50指数今日整体呈弱势，存在小跌的可能。

预期香港恒生指数今日弱势特征明显，存在小跌的可能。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50指数走势预测”

图2：东子证券“中国香港恒生指数走势预测”

东子证券舆情大数据指标（五） 【海外中国证券-当日盘前策略】

港股面临进一步下行压力

东子证券 2024–11–13 9:30:00

今日，东子证券“港股三大舆情指数”同步走低，这一信号预示着港股市场可能面临进一步的下行压力，表明大市仍有可能再进一步下寻月内新低。

港股本周连续两个交易日显著下跌，主要反映政策未有直接刺激内需和楼市，令投资者情绪受到打击。我们看到，东子证券情绪指数中“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”近期在荣枯线附近徘徊，因为他们认为中国近期的一些重大事件已经尘埃落定，然而，针对消费行业的具体政策并未出现。另一方面，此前市场关注的中央额外发行特别国债的配额也未在会议上宣告。由于该配额用于银行资本重组或消费的支持，故国际投资者尤为关注。因此产生了一定的失望情绪，徘徊等待更进一步的刺激政策惊喜出现。此外，“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”出现连续下滑，短线情绪回落至低迷区。这反映了市场参与者对港股市场的悲观预期，我们看到港股大市成交金额达2,342亿元，较上日多一成半，沽压增大。

此外，“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”持续在0轴下方，表明消息面整体对港股利空面，一是人民币近日连续贬值，资金有自港股流走迹象，人民币反覆走弱，美元兑人民币昨日曾挑战7.25水平，升穿7月以来下降轨，或将开展新一轮走弱行情，不利港股表现。二是特朗普当选后，市场担心会对中国加征新一轮关税。美国政府总统内阁及部分重要岗位正在选拔中，市场传出特朗普将提名佛州联邦参议员卢比奥出任美国国务卿。由于此君对华立场强硬，为市场对两国之间的政策不确定性带来担忧。在市场情绪转弱下，这或是引发市场昨天抛售的原因之一。

结合东子证券诸多指标，目前港股中短期上升的空间受限，今日存在继续下行的风险。恒指近七周以来首次未能守住两万点关口收市，这一重要心理位位的失守可能会引发市场的进一步波动和调整。相信会有一两天、或者一段时期的反覆。

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东子证券舆情大数据指标（六） 【海外中国证券-中线智能实盘交易】

空仓等待！

东子证券 2024–11–13 9:30:00

今日，东子证券的“海外中国证券三大舆情指数”出现同步下行走势，舆情指数的下行通常反映了投资者情绪的谨慎和悲观，预示着新加坡富时中国A50、香港恒指市场今日将面临一定的下行压力。

在东子证券的情绪指数体系中，“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”和“海外中国证券-当日机构舆情指数”出现回落，这两个指数反映了投资者对中国经济、外交及证券市场的整体看法和机构投资者的情绪变化，它们的回落意味着投资者对市场的信心有所减弱。

同时“海外中国证券-当日证券新闻指数”出现一定利空，利空新闻往往会导致市场情绪恶化，进而推动市场下行。

在悲观预期和利空消息的双重打击下，将导致今日市场进一步走弱。近期市场波动加剧，这反映了投资者对市场走势的不确定性。东子证券的中线智能交易系统没有触发交易信号，选择空仓等待市场走势的明朗。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50指数中线智能实盘交易”

图2:东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50指数中线智能实盘交易”成绩榜

图3：东子证券“中国香港恒生指数中线智能实盘交易”

图4:东子证券“中国香港恒生指数中线智能实盘交易”成绩榜

✭东子证券中线智能实盘交易是依据东子证券“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”、东子证券“海外中国证券-当日证券新闻指数”以及东子证券“海外中国证券-当日机构舆情指数”，通过大数据加权计算得出中线买卖交易信号，根据买卖信号指引进行交易操作的一种智能交易模式。

#market-outlook #hongkong #china #stocks #investing #research #investing

[orientalseed]

东子证券舆情大数据研报

发布时间 2024-11-12 9:25:00

东子证券舆情大数据指标（一） 【海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数】

投资者对海外中国证券市场的信心有所增强

东子证券 2024–11–12 9:30:00

今日，东子证券发布的“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”显示为55.5，与昨日相比上升10%。这一显著的上升主要归因于中国经济数据向好以及货币政策放松预期的刺激，导致国际投资者对海外中国证券市场的信心有所增强。

法国巴黎银行股票及衍生品策略主管Jason Lui指出，投资者正在逐步平掉之前的看涨押注，因为他们认为中国近期的一些重大事件已经尘埃落定，而这些事件的结果并未完全满足他们的预期，因此产生了一定的失望情绪。与此同时，投资者的注意力已经转向了即将召开的中央经济工作会议。这是当局在12月初于北京举行的一次重要经济会议，投资者期望通过此次会议了解更多关于未来经济刺激措施的细节。

政府机构指出，10月份的关键高频经济数据显示“第四季度初出现反弹”。衡量线下消费信心和势头的指数上个月同比增长了8.2%，而家电网上销售额则增长了40.2%。这些数据都显示出中国国内需求的强劲潜力，为投资者提供了更多的信心支持。

最后，中国人民银行已表示准备进一步放松货币政策。央行行长潘功胜表示，央行可能在年底前将银行存款准备金率下调25至50个基点，具体数额将��决于市场流动性的情况。这一政策预期也为投资者提供了更多的信心支持。

综上所述，尽管投资者情绪存在一定的复杂性，但在中国经济数据向好以及货币政策放松预期的共同作用下，投资者对海外中国证券市场的信心有所增强。

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图：东子证券“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”

✭指数说明：东子证券“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”是全球首个监测全球媒体和机构对当日中国股市做多情绪的指数，该指数以世界顶级媒体每日对中国政治、经济、外交、股市等方面的评论为基础，依托大数据算法得出对中国股市的乐观、悲观意愿值，数值越高表明做多中国股市意愿越强。

东子证券舆情大数据指标（二） 【海外中国证券-当日证券新闻指数】

消息面对海外中国证券市场呈中性偏空

东子证券 2024–11–12 9:30:00

今日，东子证券发布的“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”录得了-0.3，这一数据无疑为市场带来了一定利空。同时，“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”为-0.15，消息面对港股呈中性。这两项指数的弱势表现，无疑为今日市场带来一定负面影响。

中国10月份的宏观经济数据出炉，其中M2同比增速达到7.5%，远高于市场预期的6.9%，显示出货币供应量的增加。M1也有回升迹象，降幅收敛，但企业中长期贷款仅为1700亿，远低于去年同期的3828亿，反映出企业对未来经济前景的信心仍然不足。总体来看，虽然数据有所好转，但尚未形成重大拐点。

此外，中国资产中，人民币受强势美元影响，走势疲软，一度跌破7.23，创下3个月新低。汇率走弱表明投资外流，A50期指及恒指出现小幅下跌。

综合来看，今日海外中国证券市场面临一定的不利因素。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家媒体中与新加坡富时中国A50相关的宏观、政策、经济、行业等新闻报道，对所有新闻的属性、影响力进行评判，最后通过东子证券新闻舆情模型综合计算得出当日新闻分值，以此揭示新闻信息对富时中国A50的利好、利空属性。

✭指数说明：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”数值越高表明其对股市的利好性越大，反之亦然。负0.5以下为利空、负0.5至0.8为中性、0.8以上为利好。

图2：东子证券“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家媒体关于中国港股的新闻报道，对相关所有新闻的属性、影响力进行评判，最后通过东子证券新闻舆情模型综合计算得出当日新闻分值，以此揭示新闻信息对港股的利好、利空属性。

✭指数说明：东子证券“中国港股-当日证券新闻指数”数值越高表明其对股市的利好性越大，反之亦然。负1以下为利空、负1至1为中性、1以上为利好。

东子证券舆情大数据指标（三） 【海外中国证券-当日机构舆情指数】

海外中国证券市场情绪分化加剧

东子证券 2024–11–12 9:30:00

今日，“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”为65.1，较昨日环比上升28%，这一变化明确指示了市场情绪在富时中国A50指数方面的积极转向。这一指数的上涨往往被视为对中国内地股市，特别是大型蓝筹股未来表现的乐观预期。结合中国10月PMI数据的积极变化，显示出中国经济活动有所增强，经济复苏的迹象明显，这为股市投资者提供了做多的动力和信心。

然而，与此形成鲜明对比的是，“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”的下跌，跌幅达到7.8%，最终收盘于40.4，这反映了市场参与者对港股市场的悲观情绪。特别是，特朗普（川普）上台可能带来的外资对港股风险溢价的增加，这一预期加剧了外资的观望态度，他们可能更加谨慎地评估港股市场的风险和回报。

综上所述，今日海外中国证券市场展现了截然不同的情绪反应，分化加剧。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家国际投行、100家国际财经媒体关于新加坡富时中国A50分析文章和研报近100篇，再通过相关软件进行关键词提取、对关键词多空属性进行分析等数据处理，得出当日富时A50股市多方、空方力量分布比例。

✭指数说明：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”数值越大表明机构对股市的做多热情越高，反之亦然。48以下为看跌、48至52为看平、52以上为看涨。

图2：东子证券“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”

✭数据来源：东子证券“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”每天运用大数据技术采集全球100家国际投行、100家国际财经媒体关于中国港股分析文章和研报近200篇，再通过相关软件进行关键词提取、对关键词多空属性进行分析等数据处理，得出当日港股股市多方、空方力量分布比例。

✭指数说明：东子证券“中国港股-当日机构舆情指数”数值越大表明机构对股市的做多热情越高，反之亦然。48以下为看跌、48至52为中性、52以上为看涨。

东子证券舆情大数据指标（四） 【海外中国证券-当日盘前预测】

海外中国证券市场振荡特征明显

东子证券 2024–11–12 9:30:00

今日，预期新加坡富时中国A50指数今日振荡特征明显。

预期香港恒生指数今日振荡特征明显。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50指数走势预测”

图2：东子证券“中国香港恒生指数走势预测”

东子证券舆情大数据指标（五） 【海外中国证券-当日盘前策略】

今日市场将呈震荡走势

东子证券 2024–11–12 9:30:00

昨日东子证券在盘前指出新加坡富时中国A50指数存在低开高走的可能，市场走势再次验证了盘前观点的正确性。经过昨天的探底回升，市场做多热情指标再度回升，然而我们也要看到证券新闻指数仍为负值，预示着今日市场震荡特征明显。

随着富时中国A50权重股中，中芯国际、中微公司等科技股盘中突然拉升，极大地刺激了投资者追涨热情。所以，市场人气再度强劲复苏。“新加坡富时中国A50-当日机构舆情指数”环比上升28%至65。这其实从一个侧面说明了当前市场增量热钱，交易意愿仍然高涨，他们仍然有能力推动着盘面交易情绪的持续升温。

此外，东子证券“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”为55.5，较昨日环比上升10%，主要归因于中国经济数据向好以及货币政策放松预期的刺激，导致国际投资者对海外中国证券市场的信心有所增强。10月份的关键高频经济数据显示“中国第四季度初出现反弹”。衡量线下消费信心和势头的指数上个月同比增长了8.2%，而家电网上销售额则增长了40.2%，这些数据都显示出中国国内需求的强劲潜力，此外央行可能在年底前将银行存款准备金率下调25至50个基点，为投资者提供了更多的信心支持。

然而，我们也要看到，东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50-当日证券新闻指数”的利空因素，该指数昨日创出有史以来的最低值，今日虽有所回升，但仍处于负值区域。表明证券市场的实质性利好并没有发酵，无疑将会挫伤投资者乐观情绪。昨天的低点，就是政策低于“小作文”预期的情况下形成的。

整体来看，今日市场震荡特征明显。新加坡富时中国A50指数要突破10月8日的高点，在短期内并不容易。毕竟，上周的上攻在很大程度上受到了政策预期的推动。在缺乏进一步利好证券市场消息的情况下，指数接下来可能会以震荡的方式进行整固。

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东子证券舆情大数据指标（六） 【海外中国证券-中线智能实盘交易】

空仓等待！

东子证券 2024–11–12 9:30:00

今日，东子证券“海外中国证券三大舆情指数”出现背离，预示着新加坡富时中国A50、香港恒指振荡特征明显。

在东子证券的情绪指数体系中，“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”和“海外中国证券-当日机构舆情指数”出现了截然不同的走势。这一变化清晰地反映出投资者对于海外中国证券市场的情绪出现分化，对港股市场相对谨慎，对富时中国A50相对乐观。尽管存在乐观情绪，但“海外中国证券-当日证券新闻指数”均出现小幅利空，这无疑对今日市场带来一定负面影响。

海外中国证券市场的舆情指数背离现象反映了投资者情绪的分化。尽管存在乐观情绪，但利空因素仍对市场构成压力，近期，市场波动加剧。在此背景下，东子证券的中线智能交易系统没有触发交易信号，空仓等待市场走势的明朗。

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图1：东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50指数中线智能实盘交易”

图2:东子证券“新加坡富时中国A50指数中线智能实盘交易”成绩榜

图3：东子证券“中国香港恒生指数中线智能实盘交易”

图4:东子证券“中国香港恒生指数中线智能实盘交易”成绩榜

✭东子证券中线智能实盘交易是依据东子证券“海外中国证券-当日综合新闻指数”、东子证券“海外中国证券-当日证券新闻指数”以及东子证券“海外中国证券-当日机构舆情指数”，通过大数据加权计算得出中线买卖交易信号，根据买卖信号指引进行交易操作的一种智能交易模式。

#market-outlook #hongkong #china #stocks #investing #research #investing

[orientalseed]

Dongzi Securities Big Data Research Report on Public Opinion

Release DateNovember 11, 2024 at 9:25 AM

East Zhi Securities Public Opinion Big Data Indicator (I) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Comprehensive News Index]

The attitude of international investors towards overseas Chinese securities markets has become more cautious.

Dongzi Securities Nov. 11, 2024 9:30:00

Today, Dongzi Securities released the “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Comprehensive News Index” which showed a reading of 50.4, a decline of 11.8% from the previous period. This significant decline is mainly attributed to investors’ lower expectations for Beijing’s fiscal stimulus plan, leading international investors to become more cautious about the overseas Chinese securities market.

Louis Wong, executive director of Hui Li Capital Management, said: “Chinese assets immediately fell after the National People’s Congress press conference started at 4pm. This may reflect investor disappointment over the economic stimulus plan, as it mainly focuses on addressing the hidden debt problems of provincial governments.”

Swiss private bank economist Carlos Casanova believes that Beijing may remain on the sidelines until the details of US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans become clearer.

Despite the fact that addressing local government debt is indeed an important aspect of policy support, it is merely one part of the broader efforts needed to revive the economy. Bernie O’Connor, Chief Investment Officer of UBS O’Connor Global Multi-Asset Alpha, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: “In order to have a truly positive impact on the market, we need to see stimulus measures of $200 billion or more, particularly those related to consumption.”

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Figure: Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities — Daily Comprehensive News Index”

Exponent Index: The Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities — Daily Comprehensive News Index” is the world’s first index that monitors global media and institutional sentiment towards the Chinese stock market on a daily basis. The index is based on the daily comments of the world’s top media on China’s politics, economy, diplomacy, and stock market, and uses big data algorithms to derive optimistic and pessimistic sentiment values for the Chinese stock market. The higher the value, the stronger the willingness to buy Chinese stocks.

Dongzi Securities Social Media Big Data Indicators (Part 2) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Securities News Index]

The news is a major negative for the overseas Chinese securities market.

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–11 9:30:00

Today, Dongzi Securities released the “FTSE China A50 — Daily Securities News Index” which recorded a score of -3.1, which undoubtedly brought significant bearish news to the market. Meanwhile, the “Hong Kong Stock Exchange — Daily Securities News Index” also showed a significant bearish impact on the Hong Kong stock market with a score of -3.1. The weak performance of these two indices undoubtedly made investors more panicked.

On Friday evening, US-listed Chinese stocks experienced a collective correction, with the share prices of many leading companies in the internet, consumer goods, and pharmaceutical sectors falling sharply, with declines of more than 5% being common. At the same time, the renminbi was also under pressure, with the 3x long FTSE China ETF plunging by 16.1%. The reason behind this series of market performances is that the market has overinterpreted the positive expectations for recent policy announcements, while the reality has not met these high expectations, leading to a quick shift in market sentiment to pessimism.

Additionally, during the weekend, TSMC’s decision to cut off supply of 7nm and below advanced process chips to China further intensified the tense atmosphere in the market. At the same time, US House Representatives have demanded that the top five semiconductor equipment companies, including ASML and Applied Materials, provide a list of Chinese customers and sales figures, which undoubtedly reveals the US’s intentions to suppress China’s semiconductor industry.

Overall, with multiple bearish factors at play, the overseas Chinese securities market is facing significant downward pressure today.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 — Daily Securities News Index for Singapore”

The data source: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 Daily Securities News Index” uses big data technology to collect daily news related to FTSE China A50 from 100 global media outlets, including macro, policy, economic, and industry news. The model evaluates the attributes and influence of all news articles, and then uses the Dongzi Securities News Sentiment Model to calculate the daily news score, revealing the positive or negative impact of news on FTSE China A50.

The index indicates: The higher the value of the East Securities “FTSE China A50 Daily Securities News Index” for Singapore, the more positive it is for the stock market, and vice versa. A value below -0.5 is bearish, -0.5 to 0.8 is neutral, and 0.8 or above is bullish.

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Exchange — Daily Securities News Index”

The data source: The “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Securities News Index” from Dongzi Securities uses big data technology to collect news reports about China Hong Kong stocks from 100 global media outlets every day. It evaluates the attributes and influence of all related news articles, and then uses the Dongzi Securities News Sentiment Model to calculate the daily news score, thereby revealing the positive or negative attributes of the news information on Hong Kong stocks.

Exponent index: The higher the “China Hong Kong Stock Exchange — Daily Securities News Index” from Dongzi Securities, the more positive it is for the stock market, and vice versa. A value below minus 1 indicates a bearish outlook, a value between minus 1 and 1 indicates a neutral outlook, and a value above 1 indicates a bullish outlook.

East Zhi Securities Public Opinion Big Data Indicator (III) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Institutional Public Opinion Index]

The sentiment in China’s overseas stock market has cooled down from its previous high.

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–11 9:30:00

Today, the “FTSE China A50 — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” was 50.8, down 30.6% from yesterday, with market sentiment quickly shifting from hot to cold, and the FTSE A50 index also fluctuated accordingly. Meanwhile, the “Hong Kong Stock Exchange — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” fell 33.5%, ultimately closing at 43.9, with market sentiment becoming cautious.

The significant decline of these two sentiment indicators undoubtedly reveals that market sentiment is cooling down rapidly, and investors’ current confidence in entering the market is clearly insufficient. Affected by this, investors have become more cautious in participating in market transactions, which undoubtedly increases the risk of further decline of relevant indices.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index for Singapore”

The data source: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” uses big data technology to collect nearly 100 articles and research reports on FTSE China A50 analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it uses relevant software to extract keywords, analyze the bullish and bearish attributes of the keywords, and conduct other data processing to obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the FTSE A50 stock market on the same day.

Exponent Index: The higher the “Singapore FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” from East Securities, the more bullish the institutions are about the stock market, and vice versa. A reading below 48 indicates a bearish sentiment, while readings between 48 and 52 indicate a neutral sentiment, and readings above 52 indicate a bullish sentiment.

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index”

The data source: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” uses big data technology to collect nearly 200 articles and research reports on China Hong Kong stock market analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it uses related software to extract keywords, analyze the positive and negative attributes of keywords, and conduct other data processing to obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the Hong Kong stock market on the same day.

Exponent index: The higher the “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” from East Securities, the more bullish the institutions are about the stock market, and vice versa. A value below 48 indicates a bearish outlook, a value between 48 and 52 indicates a neutral outlook, and a value above 52 indicates a bullish outlook.

Dongzi Securities Social Media Big Data Indicators (IV) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Pre-Market Forecast]

There is a possibility of further decline in overseas Chinese securities markets.

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–11 9:30:00

Today, it is expected that the FTSE China A50 Index will be weak today, with a possibility of a sharp decline during the trading session.

It is expected that the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index will be weak today, with a possibility of a sharp decline during the trading session.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “Predicted Trend of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore”

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “Predicted Trend of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index”

East Zi Securities Sentiment Big Data Indicator (V) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Pre-Market Strategy for the Day]

There is continued downward pressure on the market today.

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–11 9:30:00

In Friday’s trading, overseas Chinese stock markets experienced significant declines, mainly due to the failure of the market’s expectation for further stimulus policies to be met. Investors had hoped to see more policy surprises, but the reality did not meet their expectations to some extent, which limited the short-term upward potential of the FTSE China A50 Index. Today’s Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities Top Three Public Opinion Index” declined simultaneously, which will bring further downward pressure on the stock market for the day.

The sentiment index system of Dongzi Securities has shown a downward trend in line with the FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore, highlighting the forward-looking and accurate nature of sentiment indicators. Among them, the “Overseas China Securities — Daily Comprehensive News Index” and the “Overseas China Securities — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” have both experienced a sharp decline, clearly indicating that investors’ attitude towards overseas Chinese securities markets is becoming increasingly cautious. Unless China can introduce more economic support policies, investors’ confidence in entering the market is lacking. Will the market see new economic policy measures in the future? It is worth keeping a close eye on. First, the Central Economic Work Conference and Political Bureau meeting in December will be important observation windows. Second, the actions and statements of President-elect Trump in January will also have a significant impact on policy direction. At that time, whether China will introduce more policy measures will directly affect the market trend.

Meanwhile, the “FTSE China A50 — Daily Securities News Index” for today also indicates that the policy face constitutes a significant bearish impact on the market. This will have a significant negative impact on the market today and may trigger profit-taking exits, creating a large amount of selling pressure. Therefore, a pullback within the day is inevitable. However, since the significant decline on Friday has already absorbed some of the selling pressure, the expected decline in the index will be relatively limited. If the market opens significantly lower on Monday, the possibility of a low-open high-close cannot be ruled out.

On the whole, it is not easy for the FTSE China A50 Index to break through its previous high on October 8 in the short term. After all, the current consolidation period is still too short, and last week’s advance was largely driven by policy expectations. Without further positive news, the index may consolidate in a volatile manner in the coming period.

In summary, the overseas Chinese securities market is under downward pressure today and is expected to remain volatile and consolidate in the short term.

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East Zi Securities Social Media Big Data Indicator (VI) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Mid-to-Long-term Smart Live Trading]

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–11 9:30:00

Today, Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities Top Three Public Opinion Index” declined simultaneously, and the FTSE China A50 and Hong Kong Hang Seng indices subsequently triggered sell signals, indicating that the overseas China securities market will continue to remain weak today.

In the emotion index system of Dongzi Securities, both “Overseas China Securities — Daily Comprehensive News Index” and “Overseas China Securities — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” experienced a sharp decline. This change clearly reflects that investors are becoming increasingly cautious about the overseas China securities market, and the market’s bullish and bearish forces are intensifying. Meanwhile, the “Overseas China Securities — Daily Securities News Index” also showed significant bearishness, which will undoubtedly further intensify market panic.

In the current market, enthusiasm for bullish positions has cooled rapidly. Meanwhile, there has been some negative news from the policy front. Under these circumstances, the medium-term intelligent trading system of Dongzi Securities has triggered a sell signal and liquidated the long positions.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “Long-term Smart Live Trading of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore”

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “Singapore FTSE China A50 Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading” Performance Chart

Figure 3: Dongzi Securities “Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Midline Smart Live Trading”

Figure 4: Dongzi Securities “Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading” Performance Chart

The East Securities Mid-term Smart Live Trading is a smart trading model that guides trading operations based on East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Comprehensive News Index,” East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Securities News Index,” and East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index,” through big data weighted calculation to derive mid-term buy and sell trading signals.

#market-outlook #hongkong #china #stocks #investing #research #investing

https://dongzisecurity.com/index.html

[orientalseed]

Dongzi Securities Big Data Research Report on Public Opinion

Release Date November 8, 2024, 9:25 AM

East Zi Securities Sentiment Big Data Indicator (I) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Bullish Comprehensive Index]

A 25% surge! Extreme volatility in overseas Chinese securities markets

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–08 9:30:00

Today, Dongzi Securities released the “Overseas China Securities — Daily Long Index” which reached 57.2, a significant increase of 25.3% from the previous day. This significant increase was mainly due to investors’ expectations that the National People’s Congress will soon adopt positive stimulus measures, which boosted international investors’ confidence in the overseas China securities market. This positive attitude to some extent alleviated market concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s second term government on the Chinese economy.

David Chao, global market strategist at Invesco, believes that Beijing is likely to roll out more fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, which are expected to partially offset the negative impact of trade headwinds. This view further bolsters market optimism about China’s economic policies in the future.

Meanwhile, data released by customs on Thursday showed that China’s export growth in October reached its fastest pace in more than two years, exceeding market expectations. Despite the threat of tariffs that once cast a shadow over China’s economic growth outlook, the export data still showed a strong growth momentum, becoming an important driver of China’s economic growth.

In addition, China’s central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, also said in his comments on Thursday that China will continue to implement supportive monetary policies to promote the sustained recovery of the economy. This statement further confirmed the central bank’s supportive stance on future economic policies, providing more confidence to the market.

In summary, the sentiment in overseas Chinese securities markets has been boosted by multiple positive factors, including investors’ expectations for proactive stimulus measures, the strong performance of export data, and the continued implementation of supportive monetary policies by the central bank. These factors have combined to create a positive outlook for overseas Chinese securities markets.

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Figure: Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities — Daily Long-Only Composite Index”

Exponent Index: The Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities — Daily Long-Only Comprehensive Index” is the world’s first index that monitors global media and institutional investors’ bullish sentiment towards the Chinese stock market on a daily basis. The index is based on the daily comments of the world’s top media on China’s politics, economy, diplomacy, and stock market, and uses big data algorithms to derive the optimistic and pessimistic sentiment values for the Chinese stock market. The higher the value, the stronger the willingness to buy Chinese stocks.

East Zhi Securities Big Data Indicators for Public Opinion (Part 2) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily News Opinion Index]

The news is a major boost for the overseas Chinese securities market.

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–08 9:30:00

Today, Dongzi Securities’ “FTSE China A50 Daily News Sentiment Index” recorded a high score of 2.0, which undoubtedly brought significant positive news to the market. Meanwhile, the “Hong Kong Stock Exchange Daily News Sentiment Index” also performed well, with a score of 1.7 indicating significant positive news for the Hong Kong stock market. The strong performance of these two indices undoubtedly injected a dose of confidence into investors.

On the policy front, Li Ming, vice chairman of China’s securities regulator, also sent positive signals to the market. He said that he would strive to enhance the investment value of the stock market and create long-term returns for investors. This statement is undoubtedly a powerful boost to the market and shows the high regard of the policy-making authorities for the development of the stock market.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s interest rate cut decision has sent positive signals to global markets. The Fed announced that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% to 4.75%. This is the second interest rate cut by the Fed this year, showing its concerns about economic growth and its determination to stimulate the economy through monetary policy.

In terms of market performance, the US stock market continued to party, with the Nasdaq index setting a new all-time high. However, it is worth noting that Chinese assets also demonstrated exceptional strength. The FTSE China 3x Leveraged ETF surged more than 16%, and the China Golden Dragon Index of Chinese stocks on the US market also rose by 3.5%. Additionally, the renminbi exchange rate also showed significant appreciation, rising by 500 points.

Overall, with the positive stimulus, the performance of China’s securities market overseas today is undoubtedly positive and uplifting.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 — News Sentiment Index for Singapore”

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily News Sentiment Index”

The data source: The “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily News Sentiment Index” from Dongzi Securities uses big data technology to collect news reports about China Hong Kong stocks from 100 global media outlets every day. It evaluates the attributes and influence of all related news articles, and then uses the Dongzi Securities News Sentiment Model to calculate the daily news score, revealing the positive or negative impact of the news on the Hong Kong stock market.

Exponent index: The higher the “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily News Sentiment Index” from Dongzi Securities, the more positive it is for the stock market, and vice versa. A value below -1 is bearish, between -1 and 1 is neutral, and above 1 is bullish.

East Zhi Securities Public Opinion Big Data Indicator (III) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Institutional Public Opinion Index]

The bullish sentiment in the overseas Chinese securities market is high.

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–08 9:30:00

Today, the “FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” is 74.3, up 33% from yesterday, indicating a marked recovery in market sentiment and risk appetite. At the same time, the “Hong Kong Stock Exchange Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” rose 54.5%, ultimately closing at 66, with both indices showing a rapid rise in market sentiment and high investor enthusiasm for buying.

Both markets have seen significant improvements in liquidity, with market activity remaining at a good level. This is mainly due to investors’ expectations that China will introduce large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, as well as the market confidence restored by China’s policy direction of strengthening domestic demand, deleveraging, and ensuring the completion of real estate projects.

With the rising market sentiment, investors are becoming more active in the market, which is expected to drive further increases in relevant indices.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index for Singapore”

The data source: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” uses big data technology to collect nearly 100 articles and research reports on FTSE China A50 analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it uses relevant software to extract keywords, analyze the positive and negative attributes of keywords, and conduct other data processing to obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the FTSE A50 stock market on the same day.

Exponent index: The higher the “Singapore FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” from East Securities, the more bullish the institutions are about the stock market, and vice versa. A reading below 48 indicates a bearish sentiment, while readings between 48 and 52 indicate a neutral sentiment, and readings above 52 indicate a bullish sentiment.

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index”

The data source: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” uses big data technology to collect nearly 200 articles and research reports on China Hong Kong stock market analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it uses related software to extract keywords, analyze the positive and negative attributes of keywords, and conduct other data processing to obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the Hong Kong stock market on the same day.

Exponent index: The higher the “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” from Dongzi Securities, the more bullish the institutions are about the stock market, and vice versa. A value below 48 indicates a bearish outlook, a value between 48 and 52 indicates a neutral outlook, and a value above 52 indicates a bullish outlook.

Dongzi Securities Social Media Big Data Indicator (IV) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Pre-Market Forecast]

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–08 9:30:00

Today, it is expected that the FTSE China A50 Index will exhibit a weak fluctuating trend today, with a possibility of decline.

It is expected that the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index will show a weak fluctuating trend today, with a possibility of declining.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “Predicted Trend of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore”

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “Predicted Trend of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index”

East Zi Securities Sentiment Big Data Indicator (V) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Pre-Market Strategy for the Day]

There is momentum for the market to continue rallying today.

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–08 9:30:00

Yesterday, China’s asset market saw a comprehensive upward trend, mainly due to the widespread expectation that China will announce a series of stimulus measures today. As a result, investors rushed to position themselves ahead of time, driving the market’s “pre-determined” rise. Today, the “Singapore FTSE China A50” medium-term intelligent trading system of Dongzi Securities also triggered a buy signal, further confirming that the market has the momentum to continue its rally.

In the emotion index system of Dongzi Securities, two key indices — “Overseas China Securities — Daily Buy Comprehensive Index” and “Singapore FTSE China A50 — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” have shown significant improvements. This change not only reflects the growing enthusiasm of investors for long positions in overseas China securities markets, but also indicates that hot money in the market is actively seeking opportunities to go long. With the continuous changes in the external environment, China’s macro environment has also undergone new adjustments. To cope with these new changes, bullish funds have formed new trading logic, namely, preserving external demand and promoting domestic demand. This logic leads to the conclusion that China’s domestic demand measures will be more proactive in the future, and the main line of large consumption will become a popular choice for various hot money. Among the FTSE China A50 component stocks, the leading stocks in sub-sectors such as liquor and tourism have all hit the limit-up board, becoming the most active mainline in the market.

Additionally, there is a more aggressive trading logic in the market, which states that asset price appreciation will effectively repair residents’ balance sheets and drive them to increase consumption. The numerous positive incremental information since September 24 also aligns with this logic, further bolstering investors’ bullish sentiment. In the eyes of these investors, the biggest beneficiary of asset price appreciation is undoubtedly the brokerage sector, represented by the large financial mainline, so the brokerage stocks in the FTSE China A50 index also continued to rally on Thursday.

Such intense bullish sentiment has also stimulated the desire of additional funds that are still on the sidelines to enter the market. Meanwhile, the “FTSE China A50 Daily News Sentiment Index” for today has a high score, indicating that the policy face is likely to be a significant positive factor for the market. Although Trump’s taking office was seen as a bearish factor for the stock market, the market has gradually absorbed this information and shifted its focus to the policy market. Market expectations are that the government will prepare relevant preventive measures, including a larger rescue plan. If the scale of the rescue plan exceeds market expectations, the FTSE China A50 Index is expected to continue to rise.

In summary, the rise of the FTSE China A50 index in Singapore not only reflects the investors’ bullish sentiment, but also indicates the positive support of the policy face to the market. In the future, as the rescue measures are gradually implemented and the proactive implementation of the domestic demand policy, the index is expected to continue to rise.

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East Zi Securities Social Media Big Data Indicator (VI) [Overseas Chinese Securities — Mid-to-Long-term Smart Live Trading]

Be proactive and do more!

Dongzi Securities 2024–11–08 9:30:00

Today, Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities Top Three Public Opinion Index” rose simultaneously, and the FTSE China A50 and Hong Kong Hang Seng indices subsequently triggered buy signals, indicating that the overseas China securities market will continue to maintain its strength today.

In the emotion index system of Dongzi Securities, both the “Overseas China Securities — Daily Long-Only Comprehensive Index” and the “Overseas China Securities — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” have experienced a significant rebound. This change clearly reflects the rapidly rising enthusiasm of investors for long positions in overseas China securities markets, with a strong market bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, the “Overseas China Securities — Daily News Sentiment Index” also shows significant positive signals, which will undoubtedly further stimulate market trends and provide more confidence and motivation for investors.

In the current market, bullish sentiment is rapidly heating up. Meanwhile, the outcomes of several major events this week have become clearer. Under this background, the medium-term intelligent trading system of Dongzi Securities has triggered a buy signal, actively going long.

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Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “Medium-term Smart Live Trading of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore”

Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading” Performance Chart

Figure 3: Dongzi Securities “Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading”

Figure 4: Dongzi Securities “Hang Seng Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading” Performance Chart

The East Securities Mid-term Smart Live Trading is a smart trading model that guides trading operations based on East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Long-only Comprehensive Index”, East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily News Sentiment Index”, and East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index”, through big data weighted calculation to derive mid-term buy and sell trading signals, and then follows the signals to conduct trading operations.

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