randomthoughts

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2025: My Team Post the Break

At the urgings of my Mocksports FBB friend, I made some consequential moves. Number 1 - a Big Trade I traded away: Zack McKinstry - DET ($1), Slade Ciccone - CLE ($1) & Noah Cameron - KC ($1) For Cody Bellinger - NYY ($24) and George Kirby ($14) It was a real steal for me. McKinstry has been a great super utility player with some speed, but what I got in return could make a difference.

Of course, I took on a lot of salary.

Number 2 - FAAB Pick-Up Like most owners, we were waiting for the Yankees to acquire Eugenio Suarez, but then they traded for Ryan McMahon instead.

The Mariniers made a bold trade for Josh Naylor, so I went for broke on him ($39) and got him. Offensively, my team will look good once everyone is healed, I think I have a competitive bunch of hitters: C - Heim ($9) and Heinman ($1) 1B - Torkelson ($1) 2B - Westburg ($11) SS - Pena ($24) (once is returns from the IL) 3B - Jung ($14) CI - Burger ($30) MI - Torres ($19)) OF - Bellinger ($34), Carpenter ($22), Mullins ($17), Smith ($5), and Chandler Simpson ($1) DH - Naylor ($39)

SP - Kirby ($12), Castillo ($22), Adrian Houser ($1), Zebby Matthews ($1), AND when healthy -- Pablo Lopez ($22), Spencer Arrighetti ($5), and Sawyer Gibson-Long ($1) - for now, my replacements are: Ginn, Springs, and Corbin - plus, I have Cam Schlittler on my minor league roster RP - Estevez ($13) and Hoffman ($20)

All this being said, I'm in 5th place, 14 points out of first to the team that won last season. I hate saying it, but if I were a betting man, I would not put down money on my team to take first place, but my team has been improved.

Right now, my team needs some power punch as I have 4 pts in HRs and 3 pts in RBI, plus some wins in pitching. Can I make up 14 points? Probably not, but I'm still having fun.

[randomthoughts]

My Team at the Mid-Point

Well, my team is improving and I have made it to 5th place, but that may be my ceiling.

This season has been rough and unpredictable for all the owners. My team only has 6 of my 13 original hitters still active on my roster. 

Yesterday, I lost Josh Jung, who got sent down to re-work his swing, but Jake Burger was activated, so they balance it out somewhat. Both have been disappointing. Jordan Westburg has spent half the time on the IL and is not knocking the cover off the ball when he is playing.

My best performer, Jeremy Pena, just went down to a fractured rib cage. He was out performing my expectations. Spencer Torkelson has powered my team in terms of HRs and RBI. 

I took a gamble on Cam Smith at the beginning of the season as my first rookie pick. It was him or Kristian Campbell, who was ranked higher on all prospect reports. Cam Smith had a great spring and just as I was about to pick Campbell, Scott White of CBS Sports, said Smith was a must-pick.

I went with Smith and had a lot of second doubts. He started off slow, but has gradually ramped up and has hit .294. That said, the power isn’t there -- yet. (Campbell, on the other hand, started strong, but slowly flamed out and got sent back down to the minors.)

My other player I worked into a pre-season trade has been a big category pick-up and that is Chandler Simpson, who probably will never hit for power, but steals bases like no one's business. (I’m glad I wrangled him into that deal. I don’t think the other owner knew what he was giving away.)

My pitching staff is very similar to hitters. I only have 4 of my active pitchers left on my staff. My rotation has been a revolving door. Losing Pablo Lopez for at least two months has been a huge blow. I’ve been riding hot replacements. 

Tyler Mahle pitched above his head but went down to an injury. Adrian Houser of the White Sox has done a similar thing. Not getting a lot of Ks, but keeping the ERA and WHIP down. 

Shane Smith shined for a while, but dulled out. Jeffrey Springs has filled in for him. 

Clarke Schmidt, an original pick, pitched unevenly at first, but has elevated his game lately. 

UPDATE: Now Schmidt just went on the IL.

Carlos Estevez has been a lights out closer for me. Jeff Hoffman was very rocky at first, but has settled down into good form.

So, I could possibly make a run for it, but unless Jake Burger returns to form, I don’t think I can make that happen.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2025: My Evolving SPs

Initial Starting Rotation Pablo Lopez  Min 22  Luis F. Castillo  Sea 22  Clarke Schmidt  NYY 9  Spencer Arrighetti  Hou 5 (injured) Zack Littell  TB 1 (waived - twice) Cade Povich  Bal 1 (waived)

My Starters as of May 29 Pablo Lopez  Min 22  Luis F. Castillo  Sea 22  Clarke Schmidt  NYY 9  Tyler Mahle TEX 1 (pitching incredibly well) Shane Smith CHW 1 (also pitching well) Zebby Matthews MIN 1 Jeffrey Springs ATH 1

My Other Cast-Offs Will Warren NYY 1 (I regret dropping him) Easton Lucas TOR 1 (I do NOT regret dropping him) Gunnar Hoglund ATH 1

My starting rotation numbers are in the middle of the road. I’ll have a decision to make when Arrighetti comes off the DL. I would imagine I’ll drop Springs. 

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2025: Pre-Season Trades Reflections

I usually go into the pre-season with ideas how I can improve my team via trades, but this pre-season I wasn't as eager to deal. That was primarily due to my lack of talent. That didn't prevent me from trading, though, as other owners came knocking at my door. My First Trade was this one: Yusei Kikuchi, P LAA ($9) Luke Raley, CI SEA ($9) FOR

Jeremy Pena, SS HOU ($24) Chandler Simpson, OF TB ($2) I was very reluctant on this one. Kikucki was relatively cheap and has decent K rate. Raley had OF/CI eligibility and despite platooning had decent power numbers.

How Has It Turned Out Quite well for me. Pena helped me lock in good SS and has produced quite well. He's not Top 5, but has 6 HRs and 6 SBs with a .300 average.

Chandler Simpson wasn't the first player offered in the trade, but I negotiated him into the deal because he stole 103 bases across AA and AAA last season. And while he has almost no power, he does hit for average and is stealing bases for me. I was hesitant to call him up, but my existing OFs were sucking and Simpson was playing regularly. In just 20 ABs, he already has 4 SBs. He can be a difference maker in this counting stat.

Trade 2 Cody Bradford, P TEX ($5) FOR Pablo Lopez, P MIN ($18) This one really turned out well for me because Lopez had been my ace. Bradford on the other hand ended up on the IL in the spring and hasn't thrown a pitch this season.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2025 - Semi-Early Returns

It's mid-May and my team had been hovering around 7th and 8th place for the first five weeks, but in the past two weeks, my team has been surging. And there has been a lot of surprises and a lot of change on my team. I'm currently in 5th, but there is reason for hope.

Eight of my current players weren't on my opening day roster. Five came about as a result of waived players and three came onto my team as injury replacements. Pleasant Surprises Spencer Torkelson ($1) - leads my team in HRs Jeremy Pena ($24) - super solid and a bit more Kerry Carpenter ($22) - same as Pena Gleyber Torres ($19) - poached and doing well Josh Jung ($14) - hurt, but came back strong Pablo Lopez ($22) - my ace Carlos Estevez ($13) - undisputed closer in KC Middle of the Road (and liking it) Jonah Heim ($9) - decent performance Cedric Mullins ($17) - decent power/decent speed Luis Castillo ($22) - sort of seeing signs of decline, but ok Clarke Schmidt ($9) - delayed due to injury, but semi-solid My Surprise Replacements (nearly everyone of my replacements have performed) Luis Urias ($1) - not spectacular, but semi-solid Daniel Schneemann ($1) - not hurting me Zach McKinstry ($1) - swiss army knife utility Shane Smith ($1) - iffy White Sox SP pitching great Tyler Mahle ($1) -- a pick up that has really delivered My Rookie Gambles Cam Smith ($5) - it was pick him or Kristian Campbell as my first pick in the minor league draft. Well, at first, Campbell looked like the better choice, but Smith is getting better Chandler Simpson ($2) - got him in a trade and he is stealing bases Huge Disappointments Jake Burger ($30) - so bad, he was sent to the minors Joc Pederson ($6) - really, really bad. I finally cut him Jordan Westburg ($11) - okay performance, but injured Spencer Arrighetti ($5) - freak injury took him out for months Fear Factor Players Jeff Hoffman ($20) - delivered saves, then went south Luis Castillo - losing his dominance to some degree

No Regret Departures Hunter Renfroe - really sucked Noel Jhonkensky - not as bad as Renfroe, but bad On whole, I'm more surprised by my recent surge. There are some players playing above their heads (Shane Smith and Tyler Mahle), but they are balanced out that my most expensive player is not delivering. I have reason to hope and may start looking at some trades to make a run for it.

[randomthoughts]

The 2025 Spears Carriers

(And my draft strategy and how things went) I had a plan going in. That was to get Jake Burger and then target Chris Martin of Texas to get saves. But things changed. I saw that one team had frozen a 2B and topped two more 2Bs -- which meant that one of them was vulnerable. So, I decided to improvise with this draft, looking for opportunities. 

Surprisingly, someone tossed out the Blue Jays new presumed closer, Jeff Hoffman. I bid him up to $20 and I ended up getting him. Then I decided to make a move on one of those 2B, Gleyber Torres. I got him, then my top two SP, Castillo and Lopez.

I was able to hold onto one of my OF Toppers, Kerry Carpenter, but I lost Josh Lowe. Between the two, I would have preferred to keep Lowe, but he went later and I was out of money. (He also went for $28.)

In the end, I sort of went with a stars and scrubs approach with a caveat that there weren’t many stars available, but given the talent available, I think I did okay.

My Rotowire draft software says I will place 4th. FantasyPros has me in 9th place. I think I’ll be somewhere in between.

Here are my purchases by round: R1 - Jake Burger, $30 R1 - Jeff Hoffman, $20 R2 - Gleyber Torres, $19 (someone else’s topper) R3 - Pablo Lopez, $22 (topper) R4 - Jonah Heim, $9 (someone else’s topper) R5 - Kerry Carpenter $22 (topper) R6-R8 - No winning bids R9 - Chris Martin $4 R9 - Jhonkensy Noel $3 R9 - Joc Pederson $6

(NOTE: We were supposed to go to Speed Rounds at round 8, but our LA forgot. That allowed me to get Chris Martin, which made me happy.)

Speed Round Purchases Hunter Renfroe $5 Wenceel Perez $1 Spencer Torkelson $1 Jake Rogers $1 Zack Littell $1 Cade Povich $1

I can’t say I got any real bargains, but if I did, these would be them if these players meet their projected expectations: Chris Martin $4 Joc Pederson $6 Spencer Torkelson $1

So, here are the 2025 Spears Carriers:

C - Jonah Heim $9 - sort of overbid for him C - Jake Roger $1 - So. 1B - Jake Burger $30 - my first round target MI - Gleyber Torres $19 - discovered he was poachable SS - Jeremy Pena $24 - got him in a trade 3B - Josh Jung $14 - carried him over as a freeze CI - Spencer Torkelson $1 - saw he was having a great spring OF - Cedric Mullins $17 - another freeze OF - Kerry Carpenter $22 - it was keep him or Josh Lowe OF - Hunter Renfroe $5 - I DID NOT want him on my team OF - Jhonkensy Noel $3 - not hopeful for much OF - Wenceel Perez $1 - speed round desperation DH - Joc Pederson $6 - hoping for some decent numbers SP - Luis Castillo $22 - Topper SP - Pablo Lopez $22 - Topper SP - Spencer Arrighetti $5 - Freeze SP - Clarke Schmidt $9 - Freeze SP - Zack Littell $1 - speed found (lost Rasmussen) SP - Cade Povich $1 - speed round RP - Jeff Hoffmen $20 - surprising winning bid RP - Carlos Estevez $13 - freeze RP - Chris Martin $4 - target I got

Path to Victory Burger breaks in his return to the AL. Josh Jung is finally healthy and produces. Torres returns to his 38 HR form. Pena, Mullins, and Carpenter have solid years. My veteran aces, Castillo and Lopez, deliver as usual and Arrighetti shows the same brilliance that he did at the end of the 2024 season. Hoffman and Estevez deliver the saves Road to Defeat Burger sucks. Pena is mediocre. The front half of my outfield is as bad as the back half. One of my veteran aces falls apart and Arrighetti becomes inconsistent. Estevez doesn't get the closers job in KC. Most Likely Outcome My offense delivers a lot of power, but lacks in steals and average. My starters are okay. I do well in saves. I finish 4th.

[randomthoughts]

My Doomed Team

My team was a huge “If” starting out and it would take a small miracle for it to compete, but I never saw how disastrous my hitters would be. 

C - Reese McGuire and Jose Trevino - nothing good happening here 1B - Anthony Rizzo - Not horrible, not good 2B - Brandon Drury went down to an injury, but sucked before that SS - Corey Seager started slowly, but has been red hot lately 3B - Josh Jung got injured within two weeks & has been down ever since CI - Justin Turner started hot, but has turned arctic MI - Jose Mateo - I did not expect much & he has met those expectations OF - Tyler O’Neill - started as world-beater, but a concussion & has suck since OF Cedric Mullin - his hitting for some power & getting SBs, but not much else OF - Kerry Carpenter - my only bright star in the OF OF - Max Kepler - started on the IL, but did come on hot OF - Hunter Renfroe - $16 for a guy who has not hit over .200 all season DH - Alex Kirlloff - started well, but got so bad I dumped him 

NOTE: I spent $31 of my FAAB money to own Josh Lowe for 16 ABs

Now, my starting pitching has been surprisingly good.

Luis Castillo - pitching well, but not getting run support Yusei Kickuchi - great all season so far, but showing some slippage Clarke Schmidt - another fantastic surprise, 5 wins, ERA under 3, 9Ks per 9 Zack Littell - another great surprise; only 2 wins, ERA at 3.00 and 9Ks per 9 Jon Gray - killing it but got injured Erik Fedde - another gamble that paid off; ERA under 3.00, 4 wins & 8Ks per 9

My relievers have not looked good but still getting saves

Carlos Estevez - 8 saves James McArthur * - 3 saves (* McArthur was a FAAB Claim pick-up)

All-in-all, I don't have a lot of hope for this season and, sadly, I can't seem to find any trades to make it better for next season.

[randomthoughts]

2024 Spears Carriers

It was a frustrating draft. Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes were the marquee players and garnered huge bids of $51 and $39. A part of me wishes I had taken Burnes, but I can’t pay $40 for a starting pitcher. I just can’t.

My Bargain Basement Cathers

There’s nothing to write home about here.

C Jose Trevino More NYY 1  C Christian Vazquez More Min 2 

My Very Decent Infield

This infield should generate a lot of power numbers and runs, but few steals.

1B Anthony Rizzo NYY 10  2B Brandon Drury LAA 10  3B Josh Jung Tex 10  SS Corey Seager Tex 38  CI Justin Turner Tor 13  MI Jorge Mateo Bal 1 

My Middle of the Road Outfield

These are a bunch of mid-tier to low-tier guys. I’m hoping for bounce-back performances from Kepler and Kirloff. I’m also hoping Cedric Mullins retains his job. There have been rumors. 

OF Tyler O'Neill Bos 21  OF Kerry Carpenter Det 13  OF Max Kepler Min 9  OF Cedric Mullins Bal 13  OF Hunter Renfroe KC 16  DH Alex Kirilloff Min 4 

My Iffy Starting Staff

Castillo should be good, but all others are nothing but risks. We shall see.

P Luis Castillo Sea 27 P Jon Gray Tex 19 P Yusei Kikuchi Tor 5 P Erick Fedde CWS 17 P Patrick Sandoval LAA 1 P Clarke Schmidt NYY 5 P Zack Littell TB 1

My Mid-Tier Relievers

Let’s face it, either of these guys could lose their job at any moment.

P Alex Lange More Det 15 P Carlos Estevez More LAA 9

I don’t have a lot of hope for this team. There’s no speed with the exception of Mateo and there’s nothing but hopes and dreams for the rest of my starting staff.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2023: The Ugly End

I didn't go from first to worst, but it was close. I placed in 9th.

That said, I did a couple of dump trades near the end of the year, sort of strategically trying to get a better draft position. Of the trades, I may regret dumping Andes Gimenez. He sucked through the season, but jumped his numbers up towards the end. With McClanahan down for 2024 with TJ surgery, my starting staff will be thin. The top starter I have is Luis Castillo, but Kyle Bradish is good too and did look good down the stretch. After that, there's some long shots -- Bryce Miller and maybe Logan Allen. Estevez and Lange were decent closers, so I may be hold onto one or both of them. As for position players, the best I have are Seager (who was great) and Cedric Mullins (who was not great) then Brandon Drury and Kerry Carpenter. That's not a lot to build on and I'm not hopeful for next season unless I get really lucky.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2023: Dump Trades

In seeing my team is not going to be even close to competing, I've decided to pull off some dump trades to get prospects and younger, cheaper talent. Trade 1 Spears Carriers Trade Andrew Vaughn, 1B CHW Trade Matt Chapman, 3B TOR

Weekend Warriors Trade Mike Ford, 1B SEA Eduardo Escobar, 3B LAA Josh Jung, RL TEX

This was all for Jung. Neither Vaughn nor Chapman are performing to their salaries and are not players to build around.

Trade 2 Spears Carriers Trade Steve Kwan, OF CLE Trade Andres Gimenez, 2B CLE

Susquehannocks Trade Mauricio Dubon, 2B HOU Trade Jake Meyers, OF HOU Trade Jonathan Aranda, Minor TB Trade Shane Baz, RL TB

Both Kwan and Gimenez were not going to be freezes for next year. I decided Aranda and Baz were worth the risk -- that is, if the Rays play Aranda. He's been active for almost a week and they haven't started him once. His is issue is that he isn't a great fielder, but has great hitting skills. We shall see if either of these pay off. I do think Jung will, but harbor some skepticism that about Aranda and Baz. Baz is going to hope to come back from a 3rd Tommy John surgery next season.

Really Bad News My ace, Shane McClanahan, is having Tommy John surgery. I saw it coming. He had a string of mediocre starts, then got pulled from a start. Then the announcement. It's a real blow for my team and part of the reason I went for Baz.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2023: Looking to Next Season

Well, after a winning season, my team has imploded. I'm currently in 7th and most of key players are injured, plus many of my players are sucking.

Here's the tale: Cory Seager - currently on his second stint on the IL Cedric Mullins - SAA Brandon Drury - has spent weeks on the IL Lance Lynn - I cut him, brought him back & he got traded to the NL Bryce Miller - a once golden boy has gone south Andres Gimenez - has horrible underperformed except SBs Shane McClanahan - has had a string of bad outings Both Chapman and Rizzo have also underperformed All-in-All, the team has been a disappointment and I don't see a great core of players to build on.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2023: Stuck in the Middle

I brought back 80% of my first place team from last season and they have greatly under-performed for me this season. Let me count the ways:

Alek Manoah - so bad that he got sent to the instructional league

Lance Lynn - so bad I cut him...then brought him back

Anthony Rizzo - after starting hot, he has been mediocre

Matt Chapman - Ditto from the above

Andre Gimenez - I thought he was the next Jose Ramirez, not so

Steven Kwan - I thought he would rise, but again, not so

Mixed Results

Corey Seager - great but injured for 45 days

Cedric Mullins - started hot, got hurt

Bright Spots

Both Carlos Estevez and Alex Lange have been capable closers

Luis Castillo - Pitching great

Shane McClanahan - performing like a Cy Young contender

Brandon Drury - started slow, picked up

Outlook Poor. I have some upside players - Bryce Miller and Logan Allen have shown promise. Kyle Bradish is starting to shine after some bad starts.

I am disappointed that my first place team has let me down.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2023: One Month In

Well, we’re one month into the season and my results have been underwhelming. With exceptions of catchers, I brought back 80% of my hitters. Because I won with my team last season, I thought they could repeat. Alas, that has proven out -- so far. 

Currently, my team is in 6th place. Like last season, I built my team on power and speed. I’m getting the speed, but not the power. That said, Corey Seager, who I was counting on as keystone player has been out for 3 weeks and will be out for at least two more with a hamstring injury. That has really hurt. 

But both Anthony Rizzo and Matt Chapman have been great. Chapman absolutely exploded and has an OPS of 1.109.  Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Jose Miranda and Andrew Vaughn have been underperforming. My outfield has been a revolving door as Laureano, Carpenter, and Meadows all have ended up on the IL. In fact, I’ve own 3 Tigers outfielders, which is not a good thing.

My two newbies on offense were Brandon Drury and Kolten Wong. Both sucked for about 3 weeks, but Drury caught fire and really helped me surge a little. I’ve cut Wong.  My pitching has had some bright spots and some downs. McClanahan and Castillo have been out of sight. Manoah and Lynn have both struggled, but Manoah is doing better. Lynn, not so much.  Martin Perez has been Martin Perez, getting wins with unimpressive stuff. Kyle Bradish looked great for a tiny bit, but got injured. He has had one good start and one awful start since returning from the IL  I do have two rookie pitchers who have had great debuts -- Logan Allen and Bryce Miller. If Bradish fumbles, I can promote one of them. My big gamble on relievers are looking like they are paying off. Alex Lange looks to be the primary closer for the Tigers and Carlos Estevez looks set as the closer for the Angels. What about looking forward? Well, I’m optimistic that my team will climb in the standings, but getting back to first will be a real struggle. The first place team is really dominating right now. We shall see. It’s a long season.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2023: The Draft Report

The 2023 Spears Carriers

This team is 80% the same as my 2022 team because my 2022 won it all. My catchers have changed and I have two faces in the bullpen. My new faces on offense are Brandon Drury, Austin Meadows, and Kolton Wong.

My starting pitching staff is 100% the same as last season. I paid for them, but they should deliver across all the starting pitching categories.

My relievers are a reach for saves. None of them have been officially set as closers. We shall see. It’s basically like I’m punting saves. 

My Cheap Catchers C - Christian Vazquez $6 C - Martin Maldonado $1

My Slugging Infield 1B - Anthony Rizzo $18 2B - Andres Gimenez $9 SS - Corey Seager, $31 3B - Matt Chapman, $22 CI - Jose Miranda, $9 MI - Brandon Drury, $6 ← New face

My Low Cost Speedy Outfield OF - Cedric Mullins $9 OF - Andrew Vaughn $14 OF - Steven Kwan $9 OF - Ramon Laureano $11 OF - Austin Meadows $10 ← New face

UT - Kolton Wong $4 ← New face

My Repeat Starting Rotation Shane McClanahan $9 Alek Manoah $22 Luis Castillo, $23 Lance Lynn $18 Martin Perez $5 Kyle Bradish $3

My Revamped Bullpen Alex Lange $11 Carlos Estevez $11 Jimmy Herget $1

Draft Strategy Review

I’ve never gone into a draft with a plan that I was able to follow -- until now. I had set goals which basically boiled down to maintaining the core of my winning team and I did it.

My infield is the same as 2022 with the exception of Brandon Drury. I liked him because he has position eligibility at 1B, 2B, and 3B. 

I had locked in the first four positions in my outfield. The only new face is Austin Meadows. He had a pattern of delivering every other year. This is his year to deliver. I actually tried to get Kerry Carpenter, but he went for $9.

My most sketchy position is closer. I took reaches there, picking up Alex Lange, Carlos Estevaz and Jimmy Hertage. I hope at least one of them ends up being a closer.

What Needs to Happen for Me to Win

My team matches last year’s performances

Seager steps up due to the end of the shift

4 of my SPs deliver

One of relievers becomes a closer

Road to Defeat

Castillo & Manoah regress, McClanahan is injured

My pseudo closers becomes just that

Kwan & Laureano regress. Meadows doesn’t rebound

Drury & Wong don’t adjust to the AL pitching

Most Likely Scenario

Seager meets expectations

My OF remains steady

Bradish flourishes, then struggles

One of my relieves does close but two do not

I trade my wealth of talent for a closer

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2023: Price of Winning

What Winning Cost Me

Key components of my team were built through trades -- trades that may cost me in the long run. I traded away a lot of high quality pitching because 3B was weak and I lost Matt Olson. 

Here are the deals: Dylan Cease ($5) for Matt Chapman ($17) Tristan McKenzie ($5) for Anthony Rizzo ($20 in the draft) George Kirby ($2) for Sonny Gray ($27) Drew Rasmussen ($5) for Lance Lynn ($19)

If I had it to do over, I would not have traded away Kirby. I wish I didn’t have to trade Cease.

I have an incredibly expensive starting staff to protect in the draft, but also some cheaper keepers: (includes next year’s salaries) Shane McClanahan ($9) Martin Perez ($5) Alek Manoah ($22) Luis Castillo ($47) Lance Lynn ($23) Sonny Gray ($31)

I also have Austin Voth and Kyle Bradish at $5 a piece. If I kept one, it would probably be Voth.

Of the above, McClanahan and Perez are definite keepers. I’d probably keep Manoah, but Lance will be a stretch. Sonny Gray will not be keepable.

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2022: I Won!

How I Won It All A part of me said it might have been luck, but the truth of the matter was that I went into the draft with three strategies:

Get steady performers over stars

Spend early because the talent pool thins out quickly

Go for Power and Speed

SOP My other standard operating procedure is to get work-horse contributors and avoid spending lots of money on stars and hyped-up prospects. I think my team reflected that with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Cedric Mullins, Matt Chapman, and Corey Seager. Basically, get producers across all positions.

Spend Early That said, I spent $41 on Trevor Story and he missed over a third of the season and when he did play, he wasn’t all that great. Yes, had he played a full season, I project 22 HRs and 20 SBs. But that $41 was a part of my strategy to spend early to get talent. 

Power and Speed I ignored batting average and picked up Story, Rizzo, and Chapman for power. I figured Seager would hit for average and give me decent power. (He led my team in HRS, but his average was sub-par.) Ramon Laureano was a good balance of speed and power for me as he got 13 HRs and 11 SBs. 

I thought after a 30/30 season, Cedric Mullins would hit more HRs, but he delivered on speed with 34 SBs. 

Along with Mullins, both Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan got me SBs with 20 and 19 each. 

Pre-Season Moves I was blessed to have an abundance of pitching talent going into the pre-season. That gave me some options. When I lost Matt Olson, I was forced to part with some of that talent though. I was okay with trading Triston McKenzie for Anthony Rizzo, but I still regret trading Dylan Cease for Matt Chapman, but third base talent was so thin. (In reflection, I would have been better off going for Eugenio Suarez and keeping Cease, but I won the league, so that’s what matters most.)

Reworking my Starting Rotation Revamping my Starting Rotation is becoming a regular practice for me. 

Here’s how I started the Season: SP - Alek Manoah, TOR $18 SP - Shane McClanahan, TB $5 SP - John Means, BAL $7 SP - Chris Flexen, SEA $5 SP - Corey Kluber, TB $11

Here’s my final rotation: SP - Alek Manoah, TOR $18 SP - Luis Castillo, SEA $42 SP - Lance Lynn, CHW $19 SP - Martin Perez, TEX $1 SP - Austin Voth, BAL $1 SP - Kyle Bradish, BAL $1 (NOTE: Shane McClanahan and Sonny Gray was on the IL at the end of the season.)

I had a lot of issues with my starting pitching. John Means made two starts and then went down to TJ surgery. I subbed in Matt Brash, who looked good in Spring Training. (Brash didn’t perform.)

Probably my most important pickup was Martin Perez. I usually avoid Perez like he was the plague, but he discovered some magic this season. I almost picked up another pitcher, but ran my two choices (Faedo or Perez) past the CBS Fantasy Baseball Facebook group, they recommended Perez. I’m glad I took their advice. 

When Corey Kluber went south, I picked up Austin Voth of the O’s and while he didn’t get Ks, he maintained a decent ERA. Likewise, I picked up Kyle Bradish who delivered almost identical numbers to each other. (I discovered that O’s pitchers were attractive this season because the leftfield wall was moved back in Camden Yards.) 

I made two big trades, moving Drew Rasmussen for Lance Lynn and George Kirby for Sonny Gray. If I had to do over, I would still make the Lynn trade but I would not have traded Kirby. Kirby would have been a nice cheap starting pitcher for the future, but I went for the win.

My other big move was to go all-in on Luis Castillo, who was traded by the Reds to the Mariners. I almost didn’t get him, but a procedural rule blocked another owner from getting him (who had a higher bid). This move probably switched the lead to me (the losing owner came in 3rd) or else it would have been close.

Prospects Pay Off I did well in the minor league draft and went for players that would deliver this season. While Steven Kwan doesn’t hit for power, he helped lift my BA and stole 19 bases.

Jose Miranda made a huge difference for my team. I no longer had to depend on Matt Chapman to carry the load on the hot corner.

George Kirby was carry over minor leaguer and he allowed me to trade for Sonny Gray who pitched well for me down the final stretch. 

Mistakes Were Made The above mentioned Kirby trade was one of them. Plus, the Chapman for Cease trade.

Chasing saves turned out to be a bad move. Soto held his role as closer for the Tigers, but other than Dany Jimenez getting 10 saves for me early one, I didn’t get much from Duran, Brett Martin, or Dillion Tate. 

Sticking with Vidal Brujan as a prospect was another mistake.

Spending $64 on two players who didn’t play that much could have doomed my team. Trevor Story ($41) certainly didn’t deliver on that spend. Fanmill Reyes ($23) was so bad the Guardians cut him. 

Looking at these two players and the money I spent on them and it’s a wonder I won. But I did, so I’m guessing it really wasn’t luck that I did.

I lost out on Amed Rosario because I filled my MI slots (Story, Seager, Gimenez) and thought Rasario could play the OF. (He only played 18 games in the OF in ‘21.) But on the upside, Gimenez outperformed Rosario.

Hitting MVP Corey Seager ($38) 33 HRs and 83 RBI paid off for me

My Cy Young Alek Manoah edged out Shane McClanahan, but only because McClanahan was hurt at the end of the season. 

Best Value Player Andres Gimenez ($4) 17 HRs, 69 RBI, 20 SBs (I’m hoping becomes the next Jose Ramirez.) 

Summing Up I won because I spent early and stuck with my strategy of not overspending on superstars, but instead of getting steady performers

[randomthoughts]

FBB 2020: 10 Games To Go

With 10 games to go, I’m in first place by 8 points, but it will be nervous final few games. 

Members of my team are starting to fall to injuries.

Sonny Gray is done of the season with a hamstring injury

Shane McClanahan (my ace) came off the IL, but then is having neck spasms

Trevor Story is also done for the season. The 2nd half was lost to injuries.

Ramon Laureano has an injury that has finished his season

McClanahan is my biggest concern. He’s been an anchor is for my rotation. 

That said, I’ve been extremely lucky with replacements. 

I picked up two Oriole’s starters who had been shaky at the beginning of the season, but have been improving in the second half. 

Austin Voth - in 5 starts, he has a 2.88 ERA with two wins

Kyle Bradish - in 5 starts, he has a 2.07 ERA with two wins

(Bradish just had a 10K shut out last night.) Kerry Carpenter of the Tigers doesn’t play everyday, but when he does, he has been hitting home runs. 

Gavin Sheets is not hitting for average, but like Carpenter, he’s hitting HRs. Statistically, I should finish in first, but earlier in the season, I was up by 12 points and fell out of first in less than 5 days (only regain first in one day). I sure miss the huge lead I had at the end of the last two seasons I won.