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And here is my response: Suzanne Schroeder -  November 7, 2017 This is a response to Abdul Rahman Rahami’s piece: “A Peace Dilemma: Afghan Peace Talks Require a New Approach.”While the Taliban’s internal cohesion is still present, the movement is also simultaneously fragmented, so any move towards negotiations must include an understanding of the complex and competing views of negotiations that currently exist within the movement. The Taliban’s ability to sustain cohesion grew out the bonds that were formed during the Soviet jihad. These experiences remain a core, defining feature of movement. It’s reasonable to expect that there will be widening fissures among hardliners in the Taliban’s military wing, and those who would support a diplomatic settlement advanced by the political wing.  After sixteen years of fighting, Taliban military leadership has become younger, more radical, and less likely to be open to negotiations. Warnings of this evolution of a more hardline Taliban are not new. Wikileaks’ Global Intelligence Files published a 2010 email from Stratfor analyst Ben West, questioning the decapitation strategy, that was then part of the “kill/capture” campaign: https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/19/1946210_re-ct-afghanistan-update-101021-.html With the strategy of an increased use of air power to degrade Taliban capability, the danger of them gaining popular support, especially in rural areas, is a consequence that should be weighed. (This is especially true now, when the US has largely abandoned the type of ambitious counterinsurgency strategy that was employed in during the Surge in 2009.)Rahami is entirely correct that “the Taliban does not promote an international jihadi agenda.” They remain a socio-religious, nationalist resistance movement, and are ideologically distinct from the Islamic State, al Qaeda, and other terrorist groups with whom they are often carelessly linked. (This is not to diminish the enormous amount of damage that has been wrought by the Taliban, in the past sixteen years of conflict.) Interestingly, regarding Saudi Arabia, the Taliban realize the irony; that their emirate was lost because of the sanctuary they gave to one Saudi, who had been driven from the Kingdom. An additional complication for future negotiations is the recent crisis between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This past August, the Saudi envoy to Kabul, Mishari al Harbi, called the Taliban “armed terrorists,” as the anti-Qatar rhetoric increased. The Taliban’s official response was strikingly moderate in its tone: https://alemarah-english.com/?p=18194, and acknowledged a role for Saudi Arabia, in aiding in a negotiated settlement. (With the most recent actions of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, it’s impossible to speculate where his new “reforms” may lead.) President Trump’s advocacy of closing the Taliban’s political office in Doha would be a fruitless gesture that will not contribute to a more tractable, and diplomatically engaged Taliban.As for the end of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, as often as this prescribed as a critical component to reaching a diplomatic settlement, there is no step by step program to follow, to convince Pakistan they will see rewards from the resulting regional stability that peace would bring. Failure to successfully address continuing hostilities between Pakistan and India makes it unlikely that Pakistan will abandon all support for the Afghan Taliban, at least not a level to satisfy Pakistan’s critics within the Afghan government.  It’s important to recognize that the Taliban strongly desire legitimacy, and wish to assert independence. A carefully crafted diplomatic agreement might give the Taliban a “way out,” to distance themselves from Pakistan’s security services, while still requiring them to demonstrate good faith moves that would safeguard Afghanistan’s political and social advances, and halt dangerous trends towards greater breakdown of the Afghan state.

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Here is Abdul Rahman Rahmani’s piece on negotiations, for The Strategy Bridge: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2017/11/7/a-peace-dilemma-afghan-peace-talks-require-a-new-approach

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https://apnews.com/3dd09d951be9475a922baf4d2d79f41e