#(caption is from gridlock)

[claraoswalds]

The sky's a burnt orange, with the Citadel enclosed in a mighty glass dome, shining under the twin suns. Beyond that, the mountains go on forever. Slopes of deep red grass, capped with snow.

The Legend of Ruby Sunday // The Sound of Drums

[itsnesss]

𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐞 | kimi antonelli × fem!reader

summary | after accidentally posting a meme about kimi before he got his first pole position, you’re called to his team truck. what starts as a tense confrontation quickly turns into flirtation

warnings | fluff, mild language, flirting, romantic tension, kissing

word count | 1.0 k

🖇 more ka12 🖇️ f1 masterlist

It wasn’t intentional. Well… maybe just a little.

The meme had been ready since Friday. Kimi Antonelli: the prince of Free Practice Fridays, the ghost of Saturdays. It was funny, harmless… at least until he pulled off a magic lap in qualifying and got his first pole.

And you, on autopilot, posted it right after.

"When you make more shade than lap times," the caption read, over a photo of Kimi stepping out of the car, serious face, dark sunglasses. It was clever. It was viral. It was... a big mistake.

Your phone explodes.

First, the retweets. Then, the messages. After that, PR calls. And finally, the message you were dreading:

Kimi Antonelli: “Can you come to the truck for a second?”

You swallow hard. Take a deep breath. Walking toward the team area has never felt this long.

You find him leaning against the side door, still in his race suit, unzipped to the waist, a white shirt clinging to his chest, hair a little damp from the heat inside the helmet. He’s not smiling. He’s not even blinking.

“What was that?” he asks, in that tone so... Kimi. Serious. Calm. Lethal.

You try a nervous laugh.

“It was a mistake. I had the post scheduled before quali. I didn’t think you were gonna… well, pull off magic.”

He raises an eyebrow.

“So my mistake was proving you wrong today?”

“That’s not what I meant…”

“No?”

There’s a pause. You cross your arms. He studies you like you’re one of his corners on a brand-new circuit. Something shifts in his gaze. It's no longer just irritation. It’s curiosity. Playfulness.

“You know how many memes I’ve seen in the last three months?” he says, stepping closer. “Each one made me want to prove I’m more than just potential.”

Your heart drums. The air between you gets thicker than a gridlock in Monaco.

“And what do I have to do with that?”

“You’re the one posting them.”

“And you’re the one who got a pole. I fixed it, deleted it, celebrated it. What else do you want?”

Silence.

“An apology. In person.” Kimi barely smiles. “Because I want to hear if you sound as sarcastic as you write.”

You look at him. Long. You step closer. Your lips are just inches from his ear when you whisper:

“Sorry, Kimi. I really thought you’d qualify tenth.”

He chuckles. Drops his head for a second like he can’t believe it. Then looks up again. Closer. Sharper.

“You’re worse than I thought.”

“And you’re more intense than I expected.”

“Intense?” he repeats. “This isn’t intensity. This is passion. Whole different thing.”

That tone heats your cheeks. You look away. He notices.

“But you kinda like it, don’t you?”

“Don’t answer that,” you say, smiling even though you didn’t want to.

Silence again. But this time, it’s not uncomfortable. It’s loaded.

The distant noise of the paddock fades as he runs a hand through his hair and crosses his arms.

“You know what bothered me most about that meme...” he begins, lowering his voice, “wasn’t what it said. It’s that it came from you.”

“Why?”

“Because you’re good. Too good. And I didn’t expect you to be the one doubting me.”

That hits harder than a badly taken chicane.

“I didn’t doubt you,” you murmur. “I laughed a little. But I never doubted.”

Kimi looks at you. Strong. Steady. Then, like it’s the most natural thing in the world, he steps closer. Your back touches the side of the truck. His hand rests just beside your head.

“Wanna buy me a coffee to make up for it?”

“Coffee?”

“Or whatever you drink when you wanna make things right with someone who’s looking at you the way I’m looking at you.”

You hesitate for a second.

A coffee. Any excuse would work, but you know it’s not about that. Not when he looks at you like this. Not when his eyes scan your face like they’re trying to memorize it. Not when his voice is no longer a challenge, but a whisper full of intent.

“I could buy you something,” you say, barely audible. “But I don’t think it’ll be enough.”

He tilts his head.

“No?”

“No.”

Your eyes drop to his lips, unintentionally. He notices.

What happens next is quick, but it doesn’t feel that way. Everything slows down.

Kimi leans in, just enough. Close enough for you to feel the brush of his breath on your lips. He smells like hot engine, adrenaline, and something fresh you can’t quite name—but it feels right. Familiar. The air between you vibrates with silent tension.

“Tell me if you don’t want this,” he murmurs, his voice a whisper. “But if you don’t say anything…”

You don’t say anything.

You can’t.

Because deep down, you’ve been waiting for this.

And he knows it.

His lips brush yours like he’s testing the moment’s temperature. Like he’s giving you one more second to back out.

But you don’t.

So you kiss him.

Or he kisses you. You’re not even sure. What matters is that it happens.

Slow. Intentional. Almost tender, though there’s fire underneath. Your heart pounds like it might burst through your chest. Kimi holds you by the waist, not hard, but firm—like he’s afraid you’ll vanish. Your hands end up on his chest, feeling the same wild rhythm that says just one thing: he wanted this too.

The kiss deepens. Your lips find his with a terrifying ease. There’s no awkwardness. Just need. Just desire.

When you finally pull apart, just barely, both of you are breathing like you just ran a qualifying lap.

He smiles. This time, for real.

“I think that made up for the meme.”

“Only a little?”

“A lot.”

“Then maybe I should post another.”

Kimi laughs. And this time, it reaches his eyes.

“Post whatever you want. But I’ll need the right to reply.” He pauses. “Privately.”

“Oh yeah?”

“Yeah. Emotional contract. After that kiss, you’re officially my personal community manager.”

You laugh. He looks at you like you’re his new trophy. And you, who were just there to do your job, realize the most important pole wasn’t the one he got on track.

It was the one that made you fall headfirst into this.

Into him.

[onenettvchannel]

BALITANG LOKAL: Unexpected Counterflow Traffic prompts 'No Left Turn' experiment in Dumaguete City [#OneNETnewsEXCLUSIVE]

DUMAGUETE, NEGROS ORIENTAL -- In recent weeks, local commuters and residents of Dumaguete City have been grappling with an unprecedented surge in traffic, particularly around the bustling intersection of Veterans Avenue and Rovira Road near Saint Paul University (SPU). Since November 6th, 2023 on Monday morning (Dumaguete local time), the city has witnessed a consistent gridlock, prompting intervention from the Traffic Management Office (TMO).

In an exclusive radio interview on DWFH-FM 97.7mhz K5 News FM: Dumaguete (formerly Radyo Bandera: Sweet FM network) as TMO Chief Traffic Officer named Gilbert E. Ablong Sr. addressed this month-long issue, emphasizing the severity of the traffic congestion during the upcoming holiday season by December 2023. Commuters heading both North and South were facing challenges navigating the intersection, leading to an escalation of the problem.

To tackle this issue head-on, the local Traffic Management Office (TMO) has decided to implement an experimental "No Left Turn" policy at the Veterans Avenue and Rovira Road intersection. The decision was influenced by the heavy traffic flow, and the experiment is set to commence starting Monday from 6:30am on November 27th, 2023.

During a flexible schedule, student participants from Saint Paul University (SPU) - Dumaguete will experience the "No Left Turn" policy during peak commuting hours, specifically from 6:30am to 8:30am, 11:30am to 1pm, and 4pm to 7pm on regular school days. Outside the academic schedule, commuters using routes such as Sibulan to Bantayan, Bantayan to Qualfon, Qualfon to Pulantubig, and Pulantubig to Sibulan town are advised to plan their trips meticulously, adhering to the newly implemented traffic policy.

The decision to enforce a "No Left Turn" policy reflects the city's commitment to finding a sustainable solution to its traffic woes. In a series of Facebook posts and videos circulating widely (whose owned by Meta Platforms Inc.) and initially reported from Headz Up! NegOr News with CNN Philippines' Negros Oriental correspondent (Roy August Bustillo), concerned citizens documented the traffic chaos, drawing attention to the urgent need for intervention.

Mr. Ablong, in the said radio interview, stressed the importance of public cooperation for the success of the experiment. The goal is to create a safer and more efficient traffic system in Dumaguete City, providing relief to both local residents and the countless students navigating the area daily.

As the experiment unfolds, the local Traffic Management Office will be closely monitoring the situation through the effectiveness of the "No Left Turn" policy. The success of this initiative hinges on the collective efforts of the community, fostering a sense of responsibility and discipline among residents of The City of Gentle People.

PHOTO COURTESY: Roy August Bustillo via Headz Up! NegOr News BACKGROUND PROVIDED by: Tegna

SOURCE: *https://www.facebook.com/1837868953134880/videos/1742985726147128 [Referenced FB LIVE Video #1 via Headz Up! NegOr News] *https://www.facebook.com/1837868953134880/videos/1032136738108245 [Referenced FB LIVE Video #2 via Headz Up! NegOr News] *https://www.facebook.com/1837868953134880/videos/877099743999080 [Referenced FB VIDEO #1 via Headz Up! NegOr News] *https://www.facebook.com/1837868953134880/videos/1513954496060780 [Referenced FB VIDEO #2 via Headz Up! NegOr News] *https://www.facebook.com/1837868953134880/videos/2883967905089995 [Referenced FB VIDEO #3 via Headz Up! NegOr News] *https://www.facebook.com/1837868953134880/videos/258335503897297 [Referenced FB VIDEO #4 via Headz Up! NegOr News] *https://www.facebook.com/100050636672555/posts/903978531300028 [Referenced FB Captioned Post via Headz Up! NegOr News] *https://www.facebook.com/61550972826016/posts/122142171446032427 [Referenced FB Local Advisory via The Paulinian - Saint Paul University Dumaguete] *https://www.facebook.com/100093531061967/posts/215781001549601 [Referenced FB News Article #1 via DWFH-FM 97.7mhz's K5 News FM: Dumaguete] and *https://www.facebook.com/100093531061967/videos/3215315128767370 [Referenced FB News Article #2f via DWFH-FM 97.7mhz's K5 News FM: Dumaguete]

-- OneNETnews Team

[nbrook29]

but baby, it’s cold outside

So, I might have written a thing 🤭 Robbe’s photo related thing to be more specific.

Also on ao3!

----

“Wow, who knew making a fire could be so sexy?”

Robbe heaves a long-suffering sigh and looks at the sky above him in hopes it gives him strength to deal with the dork also known as his boyfriend.

“Don’t you sigh at me, Robin, you’d agree with me if you could see yourself right now.”

The tone of his voice is enough to let Robbe know Sander is currently in his teasing mood and lives to rile him up.

He looks very pleased with himself when Robbe turns his head to give him an eyeroll, even more so when he notices the smile tugging at the corners of Robbe’s mouth. At the eyebrow wiggle he then receives Robbe stops fighting the smile altogether and laughs quietly at Sander’s antics, his chapped from cold lips cracking a little.

“Will you help me or you’re just gonna stand there looking pretty, huh?” he lights another match but it’s immediately blown out by the wind and he lets out a small whine in frustration.

“But you’re doing so good on your own! I can cheer for you though?” Sander’s offer sounds almost genuine but the blossoming smirk acts like a tattletale and yes, Sander is definitely in the mood.

And Robbe can’t even be mad that he’s a little shit because he’s a sucker for him and that smile and they both know it. So he just shakes his head in feigned resignation, giggling when Sander actually does start cheering for him, whooping and clapping his hands, and just being embarrassing in general.

It’s getting noticeably colder with the temperature dropping significantly since they left Sander’s house over an hour ago. There has been a warning of a blizzard coming to Antwerp this evening but it feels like it may come sooner than anticipated.

They went for a long walk in the afternoon to get a bit of fresh air and to enjoy the dearly missed for years snow after being cooped up in their respective bedrooms for days and days on end, cramming for finals (Robbe) and finishing up projects (Sander). The sound of fresh snow crunching under their shoes felt like freedom at last, both of them instantly turning into 8 year olds, threatening each other with snowballs and making snow angels, soaking half of their clothes in the process.

For the artist inside of Sander, the winter wonderland-like scenery was like a wet dream, his fingers clicking away on his vintage camera every two minutes or so, making their walk extra slow. Robbe didn’t mind though, being long acquainted with Sander’s artistic habits and indulging him every time he turned his big eyes on him to request them getting off their track a bit to take a photo of yet another thing looking awesome covered in snow. And then after every picture taking his hands into his own to rub his freezing fingers in order to warm them up because Sander refused to wear gloves. Granted, they weren’t very practical for operating a camera but still. Robbe had a very personal relationship with these beautiful hands so it’s not like he could just let them freeze off. It was basically his duty. The sweet smile Sander shot him every time he did it was an additional bonus.

They grabbed a coffee from their favorite coffee shop at the corner of Sander’s street but the wonders that the warm liquid did to warm them up has been long gone by now. Robbe is pretty sure the sound that’s coming from his left side is actually Sander’s chattering teeth so he doubles his efforts and after a few attempts he finally manages to make fire pit lit up. His boyfriend lets out a loud whoop and then immediately comes closer, wrapping himself around Robbe’s small body from behind and holding his palms above the new source of warm.

“You know,” he starts as Robbe pokes at the fire a few times and throws a piece of wood in it and letting it burn before melting into Sander’s embrace and warming his own hands over the flames. “I already knew I’m dating a skater boy but I had no idea I’m also dating a scout boy.”

Robbe snorts. “Lucky you because otherwise you’d freeze to death. I’m expecting your gratitude anytime now.”

Hey, he can be a little shit too if he puts his mind to it.

“Well thank you, baby,” Sander purrs sweetly into his ear, placing a kiss on the spot on the side of his neck currently not covered with scarf causing a shiver go through Robbe’s body, only partially due to his cold as ice lips.

He tilts his head to the left and presses a lingering kiss to his mouth, his eyes closing and knees buckling a little within seconds when Sander licks into him, his hands landing on Robbe’s hips to steady himself. It’s slow and unhurried, a bit uncomfortable given the position they’re standing in but it’s not like either of them actually cares.

They do care though when the darkish grey clouds over them decide it’s high time for some snow so they’re forced to separate, Sander letting out a sorrowful sigh, burying his face in Robbe’s neck and circling his waist with his arms, refusing to let go.

“Come on, let’s go before it gets really bad,” he laughs quietly when Sander shakes his head petulantly, his fringe tickling Robbe’s cheek in the process.

“I don’t want to,” he groans but after a few minutes he lifts his head slowly, surrendering. But then he dips his head again under Robbe’s jaw as if to test something. “Hey, you smell nice. Is that a new aftershave?”

“Yeah, you like it?” Robbe asks expectantly.

Sander pretends to think for a second. “Wait, I think I need to check again,” he replies before burying his cold nose in the hinge of his jaw. Robbe lets out a high-pitched squeak at the sudden coldness and tries to squirm away, giggling as Sander instead of letting him go places little (cold) kisses along his jawline. Once he manages to kiss every square of it he backs out with a triumphant smile, barely dodging Robbe’s incoming elbow.

“After a closer inspection, yes, I do like it, I like it a lot.”

“Cool.”

“Cool.”

Robbe tries to hide his smile, pleased with Sander’s reaction because he wants to actually keep his cool but he fails and Sander sees right through him, chuckling when he realizes the slight blush on Robbe’s cheeks has little to do with cold. Surprisingly, he decides to let it go and not tease him about it which Robbe is lowkey grateful for because it’s embarrassing how gone he is for him.

Before they leave the lakeside, they both take a picture with their phones of the now extinguished fire, or actually what’s left of it. Robbe is first to post it but Sander’s photo is better, obviously, his skills at tweaking it to look just right far more superior than Robbe’s. Once Sander’s done, he puts away his phone with a tongue-in-cheek smile and Robbe is already dreading what he’s going to find in the caption. He taps on the app icon and groans.

Fire made by my firebreather 🌬️🥶❄️☃️💙 #scoutboy

“Ugh, you’re so annoying.”

Sander blows him a kiss, ignoring his scoffing as he entwines their fingers and pulling Robbe along to finally get them moving, the snow getting stronger the longer they stall.

Robbe forgets all about Sander’s embarrassing caption when he realizes they are still about 20 minutes away from his house and he’s almost soaked to his underwear. Sander’s in a better state than him, his leather jacket despite not giving much warmth keeping the snow from getting through, and so are his ankle reaching shoes.

They can’t exactly take a tram because the snow caused a huge gridlock, people honking at each other left and right with trams stuck in between. They try to run for a while but the pavement is too icy and it quickly turns out that one wrong move is going to cost them a broken bone. But Sander looks determined to get them to his house as quickly as possible once he notices Robbe’s soaked through clothes and his violently shivering body so they end up getting there in under 15 minutes.

Thankfully, his parents had left the heat in the house turned on before they went to the movies so once they cross the threshold they are bathed in a delightful warmth. They take off their shoes and jackets, but then Robbe lingers in the entry, aware of his dripping clothes and not wanting to make a mess at which Sander just rolls his eyes and drags him to the upstairs bathroom.

Robbe has troubles to keep his teeth from chattering and when he sees himself in the mirror, his lips are slowly turning a weird shade of blue so he peels off all the soaked layers while Sander turns the shower on, making sure the water is hot enough to stop Robbe from turning into a smurf. He has that deep wrinkle between his furrowed eyebrows and he’s acting like a man on a mission helping Robbe get off the soaked clothes and collecting a fresh share of his own for him to put later on.

“He-ey, calm down, I-I-I’m f-iiii-ne,” Robbe stutters out because when Sander gets all worried about him like this it’s best to squash that seed right away.

“Tell that to your lips,” he scoffs, worrying his own lip between his teeth. “Come on, get in.”

Robbe sighs and decides it’s probably best to just let him fret a little. He lets himself be maneuvered into the shower and then snorts at Sander’s unsure look on his face as he hovers near the shower door, clearly wanting to join in but not wanting to intrude.

“Ar-rre you seriii-oouus?” he asks, groaning in relief when the hot water hits his back. “What are you wai-iii-ting for, get in, you’re all wet too!”

That puts him in motion and Robbe laughs when he sees him shedding his clothes off in record speed, jumping on one leg when he tries to get off his wet skinny jeans, before joining him and pushing his face directly under the stream.

“Fuck, it feels so good.” Sander turns his head back and forth, letting the water wet his hair before he takes a good look at Robbe. “You’re feeling better?”

He delicately thumbs at his lower lip and the sweet gesture makes Robbe smile and give his finger a side kiss, then turning his head slightly to place another on the center of his palm.

“Yeah, I think circulation is back,” he jokes, wiggling his toes.

“I’m sorry, I know it’s my fault, if I hadn’t been fooling around we would have gotten home before it got so bad-”

“Sander, shut up, it’s not your fault it snowed harder we anticipated,” Robbe looks at him with disbelief.

Of course Sander would blame himself.

“But-”

“No buts. Period.”

Sander doesn’t look convinced so to avoid any further doubts, Robbe stands on his tiptoes, looping his arms around his neck and shuts him up with a kiss. It definitely helps to warm him up faster.

“So like... no butts at all?”

Robbe blames it on the almost-hypothermia that it takes him a few seconds to get the joke.

“Oh my god you’re unbelieveable,” he laughs into his finally smiling mouth and deepens the kiss, Sander’s wandering hands effectively erasing any cold-related feeling from his mind.

[tigerfush]

But the Met Gala red carpet is now an arena where people go to make statements, which inevitably robs those statements of their power. No one here is rebelling against the Man. The Man loves the extra publicity; it helps sell more $35,000 tickets to socialites who love a frisson of revolution as long as it’s safely divorced from the threat of actual tumbrels. In 1970, Tom Wolfe famously used the term radical chic to describe a New York party held by Leonard and Felicia Bernstein to fundraise for the Black Panthers. (Wolfe’s account of the party in New York magazine included a photo of the snacks. The accompanying caption asked: “Do Panthers like Roquefort morsels?”) The Met Ball is now the heir to this tradition, a safe space for political statements that all attendees will applaud, regardless of whether they truly believe them. In a decade’s time, the wheel will turn again, and this Met Gala will look as outdated as fashion’s previous attempts at social commentary via the medium of clothes affordable only to the 1 percent. (John Galliano’s “Haute Homeless” collection, I’m looking at you.)

Rapinoe’s purse is a prime example of the toothless nature of activist couture. It was cute, sure, but it bears no comparison to her decision to support the San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick by taking a knee before a National Women’s Soccer League game in 2016. That protest was brave and powerful because viewers all understood the stakes: Kaepernick had suffered huge professional consequences for his anti-racist protest, and Rapinoe followed his lead despite knowing that she risked a similar backlash. But no one gets booed, or thrown out, or shunned by their peers for wearing an ensemble supporting any progressive cause to the Met Gala. Everybody there would probably pay lip service to “taxing the rich,” for example, even as they do absolutely nothing to address the legislative gridlock that makes progressive tax reform politically impossible. So what is the risk of wearing a sloganeering outfit to the Met Gala—giving Tucker Carlson more palpitations with which to fill his airtime? For Ocasio-Cortez, that’s just a day ending in a Y.

The most striking thing about yesterday’s Met Gala, to me, was what didn’thappen. Awards ceremonies and red-carpet events have traditionally been followed by best- and worst-dressed lists—a shabby, nitpicking roll call of self-appointed tastemakers cackling with schadenfreude over an exceptionally attractive woman whose bad dress sense has resulted in her going out looking merely like a very attractive woman. A decade ago, I would have expected to see the Met Gala outfits forensically and cruelly dissected on blogs such as Go Fug Yourself and Perez Hilton—both of which have toned down their criticisms since their respective heydays.

That harsher style of commentary is now out of fashion. We are more comfortable analyzing celebrities’ moral choices—their past remarks, their insensitively named shapewear lines, their fake-pregnancy photos—than their ill-advised decision to wear an A-line skirt when they’re a bit heavy on the hips. Where the public once bullied A-listers for a bad nose job or a frumpy neckline, these days we instead scrutinize their political outlook and find it equally objectionable. Body-shaming has been replaced by soul-shaming.

In that light, the celebrity embrace of political statements makes perfect sense. We have to talk about something. If the Met Gala is just hot people in nice outfits, what’s the point of that? Activism is now the height of fashion.

Helen Lewis

[bronva]

Grieving son ‘missed dad’s funeral because of M25 eco protest’

Grieving son ‘missed dad’s funeral because of M25 eco protest’

Caption: Man missed dad’s funeral due to eco-protestors Credit : ITV/Just Stop Oil A grieving son missed his father’s funeral because of road chaos caused by environmental protesters. Tim Bambury set off from his home in Buckinghamshire towards Essex when he was caught up in gridlock traffic on Monday. He learned en route that Just Stop Oil protesters had blocked parts of the M25, a stunt the…

[patriotsnet]

Can Republicans Keep The House And Senate

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/can-republicans-keep-the-house-and-senate/

Can Republicans Keep The House And Senate

Democrats Take The House Republicans Hold The Senate A Look At The Most Likely Outcomes Of The Next Congress

Democrats win House, Republicans keep Senate

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, right, and Minority Whip Steny H. Hoyer celebrate Tuesdays election result, which puts Pelosi in line to return to the speakership.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez addresses the crowd gathered at La Boom nightclub in Queens, N.Y., after she became the youngest woman elected to Congress.

Supporters of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez celebrate her victory.

Sen. Ted Cruz addresses his supporters as he declares victory at his election night headquarters in Houston.

U.S. Senate candidate Beto ORourke and his wife, Amy Sanders, take the stage as he concedes.

Sen. Joe Manchin III celebrates his reelection.

People react to Tuesdays election results during a Democratic election watch party in Washington.

Grace Scherrer, 86, is excited to cast her ballot as the polls open at the Luxe Sunset Boulevard Hotel in Brentwood.

Maude, a 2-year-old English bulldog, waits as Danny Carinci votes at the Hermosa Beach Lifeguards headquarters.

Musicians Julie Mintz, left, Mindy Jones and Moby entertain the crowd during a campaign rally at Katie Porters campaign headquarters Tuesday in Tustin, Calif.

Rep. Adam Schiff and candidate Katie Porter greet the crowd during a rally at her campaign headquarters Tuesday in Tustin, Calif.

Rachel Mesa, 29, holds her son Madison Mesa, 1, as she votes at a polling site Tuesday in Stevenson Ranch, Calif.

Voters fill the booths Tuesday at Los Angeles County Fire Station No. 124 in Stevenson Ranch, Calif.

Republicans Keep The House; Democrats To Retain Senate

Democrat Elizabeth Warren takes the stage after defeating incumbent GOP Sen. Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race on Tuesday. Michael Dwyer/APhide caption

toggle caption

Democrat Elizabeth Warren takes the stage after defeating incumbent GOP Sen. Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race on Tuesday.

Republicans have easily maintained their hold on the House, while missteps from Tea Party favorites helped Democrats retain a majority in the Senate.

That means the two chambers of Congress remain deeply divided, with prospects for agreement on such big-ticket items as deficits, tax rates and climate change unclear.

In the House, Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, gloried in his party’s victory and laid down a marker. Saying he stands “willing to work” with his partners, Boehner added, “with this vote, the American people have also made clear there’s no mandate for raising tax rates.”

For his part, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said, “The strategy of obstruction, gridlock and delay was soundly rejected by the American people. Now, they are looking for solutions.”

‘miserable And Emboldened’: If Republicans Lose The House They’ll Be On Defense

House GOP leaders are expecting to oversee a more conservative conference next year, with many of their losses coming in seats held by centrists. That tilt to the right is likely to mean even more pressure by top leaders for members to stick together to vote on legislation that is closely aligned to Trump and his agenda.

Senate races in mostly red states benefited from Trump focus

Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky talks to reporters after the Senate voted to confirm Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh on Oct. 6.hide caption

toggle caption

Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky talks to reporters after the Senate voted to confirm Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh on Oct. 6.

Senate Democrats had faced a steep challenge as they fought to keep seats in states Trump won by double-digit margins in the worst battlefield for any party in modern history.

Just six Republicans were up for re-election; all but one of them ran in safely Republican states.

Democrats landed on a plan to allow each vulnerable Democrat to run an independent campaign without a unified platform. For example, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota could stump on protecting farmers while Joe Manchin in West Virginia promised new health protections for coal miners.

Read Also: Did Trump Say Republicans Are Stupid

Election Senate Odds: Will Republicans Regain Upper Chamber

Democrats are narrowly in control of the U.S. Congress, but Republicans are licking their chops for next years midterm races because, over the last 30 years, the party out of presidential power has usually made substantial gains in midterm elections during a presidents first term, with the most substantial occurring in 1994 and 2010.

Given Democrats extremely slim margins of control, the prediction that the Democrats will lose at least one, if not both, chambers of Congress can be supported by historic precedents.

However, changes in the Senate have been less consistent than in the House. And given next years election trajectory in Congress upper chamber, the likelihood of a Republican takeover there deserves a second look.

Can Democrats hold their 50-50 majority in the Senate?

First, lets take a look at the collective odds for Congress.2022 Election Congress odds

Republicans only need a net gain of one seat to capture the Senate, but Democrats are well-positioned to make gains because the GOP will be defending more seats. Moreover, several seats are being vacated by Republicans in swing states where Democrats have experienced some electoral success over the past 5 years.

With the polarizing nature of the current American political landscape, neither oddsmakers nor bettors believe theres much of a chance that control of Congress will be split following the 2022 midterm elections but thats the most likely scenario at this point .

Democrats Can Keep The House In 2022 Really

Next year, promises to be tough but House Democrats can beat the usual trends of losing enough seats to hand the majority to the Republicans.

Last week, the Washington Posts Karen Tumulty asked House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer how he is feeling about the 2022 midterm election. After all, the presidents party almost always loses at least a few House seats and usually many more. Yet Hoyer insisted he is optimistic. He argued there are a couple of exceptions to the midterm rule, in particular, when the country was facing deep economic downturns. He also noted that Donald Trump wont be on the ballot and the Republican Party is deeply divided, which could dampen Republican base turnout.

Meanwhile, analysts have pointed out that Republicans are poised for a takeover of the House. As CQ Roll Calls Nathan Gonzales put it, Republicans should disband if they dont win back the House in 2022 because Democrats have their narrowest majority in more than a generation, and Republicans have redistricting and history on their side in the midterm elections.

But Hoyers optimism should not be treated as delusional or dishonest. History does show Democrats have a path forward.

Where hope lies for Democrats is in the exceptions to the midterm rule. However, Hoyers specific analysis is well off the mark; deep economic downturns are not good for the presidents party!

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Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022

But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.

Trump Sticks To Trump Country As He Pushes For Gop Wins In The Midterms

Trump personally played a significant role in tight Senate contests in the closing weeks of the election cycle. He traveled to Indiana, Florida, Montana, Nevada, Missouri and Mississippi and in some cases landed in dramatic fashion aboard Air Force One to crowds of supporters enthusiastically cheering his red-meat speeches focused mostly on immigration and warnings about what Democratic control meant for his agenda.

His visits included overt reminders to his base supporters that they weren’t just voting for any Republican on the ballot they were voting for senators promising to back his priorities.

“They want to raise your taxes, the Democrats do, restore crippling regulations, shut down your new steel mills, take away your health care, and put illegal aliens before American citizens,” Trump said in a closing rally in Indiana on Monday. “If you want more caravans, if you want more crime, vote Democrat tomorrow.”

A year of big money and big controversy

Democrats benefited from a flood of donations to official party organizations and outside groups working on their side. Democratic candidates and their outside supporters are expected to spend more than $2.5 billion on this year’s election, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Republican candidates and their backers are on track to spend $2.2 billion.

Fundraising in 2018 far outpaced what is normal for a miderm election.

NPR’s Deirdre Walsh contributed to this report

Recommended Reading: Senate News

Bob Woodward: You Could Write A Whole Book On Lindsey Graham

The House of Representatives voted to pass legislation on Tuesday to prevent a government shutdown at the end of the month and suspend the nation’s borrowing limit, setting up a showdown with Republicans who insist Democrats should act alone to stave off a looming debt crisis. The party line vote was 220-211.

Gop Women Made Big Gains

Election 2020: can the Democrats win the Senate? | The Economist

While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.

GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats

Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11

District D+22.1

Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.

Read Also: How Many States Are Controlled By Republicans

Election : The Votes Are In Now Comes The Wait

After a smooth and largely uneventful Election Day, Americans are now waiting for results in key states. Both major-party presidential candidates addressed supporters overnight and foreshadowed a wait and, potentially, a fight.

The Senate outcome rested on a handful of states where Democrats still hoped to topple incumbent Republicans, but their pickup opportunities were dwindling fast on an unusually large battleground that stretched from Maine to Alaska and could tilt with the presidential results. At stake was the ability of the next president to fill his cabinet, appoint judges and pursue his agenda, and the two parties had waged a pitched battle to the end, pummeling voters with advertising backed by record sums of money, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars.

Republicans scored crucial wins in Iowa, Alabama and Montana, and were running stronger than expected in North Carolina and Maine, where the results were still too close to call early Wednesday morning.

Democrats needed a net gain of three or four seats to take Senate control, depending on whether former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic nominee, won the presidency, which would allow his vice president, Kamala Harris, to cast tiebreaking votes.

They flipped seats in Colorado, where John Hickenlooper, the former Democratic governor, easily defeated Senator Cory Gardner, and in Arizona, where Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, beat Senator Martha McSally.

Republicans Are Well Positioned To Take The House In 2022

Although we dont yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party thats not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election .

Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020s election at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.

The recent history of midterms in a Democratic presidents first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clintons election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.

If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.

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Republicans Hold The House And The Senate

This outcome would be Republicans ideal, in part because theres a decent chance that they will widen their Senate majority on Tuesday given the number of Democratic seats that are vulnerable in states Trump won.

Its unlikely they would win enough new seats to give them a filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority. But even a slight boost from the current 51-seat majority would give them more cushion in those cases where only 50 votes are needed in the Senate.

The GOP effort to repeal Obamacare, which was pushed through using special budget rules, failed by just one vote. And the confirmation of Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court became a real nail-biter thanks to the doubts of just two or three GOP moderates.

Republicans have said they would try to resume their effort to repeal Obamacare and pass another tax cut. But even with government under one party as it is now such efforts wont be easy without gaining some measure of bipartisan support something Republicans have shown little interest in securing over the past two years.

One important new dynamic will be who takes over from retiring House Speaker Paul D. Ryan. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has been crisscrossing the country for months raising money and campaigning for Republicans. Hes the front-runner, though the partys hard-right wing appears unsold on him.

Iowa Montana And South Carolina

Though Iowa, Montana and South Carolina are all traditionally right-leaning, polls had shown tight Senate races in those states, and the Cook Political Report had rated each a tossup. But come Election Day, Republicans easily won each race.

In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst, the Republican incumbent, dispatched Theresa Greenfield, her Democratic challenger, by 6.6 percentage points. In Montana, Senator Steve Daines, the Republican incumbent, won by more than 10 percentage points against Steve Bullock, Montanas two-term Democratic governor.

And in South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican and the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, survived a challenge by Jaime Harrison, a former chairman of the states Democratic Party, winning by 10.3 percentage points.

Also Check: Why Do People Hate Planned Parenthood

What Is The New Balance Of Power In The House

House Democrats held onto their majority but lost seats to Republican challengers.

More than a dozen incumbent Democrats lost re-election bids, despite earlier projections they could gain up to 15 seats.

Democrats took the chamber after they netted 41 seats in the 2018 midterm elections, their largest single-year pickup since the post-Watergate midterms of 1974. But some of those new Democrats were among the partys losers in 2020.

Election Results : Veto

See also: State government trifectas

Two state legislatures saw changes in their veto-proof majority statusâtypically when one party controls either three-fifths or two-thirds of both chambersâas a result of the 2020 elections. Democrats gained veto-proof majorities in Delaware and New York, bringing the number of state legislatures with a veto-proof majority in both chambers to 24: 16 held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats.

Forty-four states held regularly-scheduled state legislative elections on November 3. Heading into the election, there were 22 state legislatures where one party had a veto-proof majority in both chambers; 16 held by Republicans and six held by Democrats. Twenty of those states held legislative elections in 2020.

The veto override power can play a role in conflicts between state legislatures and governors. Conflict can occur when legislatures vote to override gubernatorial vetoes or in court cases related to vetoes and the override power.

Although it has the potential to create conflict, the veto override power is rarely used. According to political scientists Peverill Squire and Gary Moncrief in 2010, only about five percent of vetoes are overridden.

Changes in state legislative veto-proof majorites State

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The laws largely focus on tightening voter ID requirements, purging voter rolls and restricting absentee and mail-in ballots.

Texas

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Weakening Of The Investigations Against Trump

If Democrats dont control the House or the Senate, they cant initiate investigations of Trump or some of his more controversial cabinet members, such as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt.

More importantly, after the 2018 elections, the electoral process will recede as a constraint on the president and GOP in terms of the Russia investigation at least for a while.

We dont really know why Trump, despite his constant criticisms of the investigation, has not fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, or why he has not directly tried to stop the probe by special counsel Robert Mueller. Maybe Trump, despite his rhetoric, has some real respect for the rule of law. I think its more likely that Trump understands that firing Rosenstein or making a drastic move to stop the Mueller probe would increase both the chances of Democrats winning the House and/or Senate this year, and the odds that the resulting Democratic-led chamber would feel compelled to push to impeach Trump. But if the GOP emerges from 2017 and 2018 without losing control of the House or the Senate, I suspect that, with the next election two years away, the president will feel freer to take controversial steps to end the Russia probe. And I doubt Republicans on Capitol Hill would try to stop him.

[washingtonpost-us]

Fire Razes NIPCO Filing Station In Osogbo

Fire Razes NIPCO Filing Station In Osogbo

Fire Outbreak Causes Gridlock In Osogbo Fire Razes NIPCO Filing Station In Osogbo

Residents and Commuters fled the scene as the NIPCO Filling Station at Ogo Oluwa area of Osogbo, Osun State was razed by fire.

The cause of the inferno which led to panic was not known as residents speculated that the fire would have come from the 33,000-liter fuel tanker parked in the Station.

NIGERIA NEWSgathered…

[techcrunchappcom]

New Post has been published on https://techcrunchapp.com/trump-ends-covid-budget-stimulus-relief-talks/

Trump ends Covid budget stimulus relief talks

Image copyright Getty Images

Image caption Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been in budget talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin

US President Donald Trump has said he is ending negotiations over a Covid-19 relief bill, and will only resume talks after the election.

He predicted he would win next month’s election and pass a bill afterwards. US stocks fell after the announcement.

Budget talks between Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin began in July.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said Mr Trump had “turned his back” on the American people.

“Make no mistake: if you are out of work, if your business is closed, if your child’s school is shut down, if you are seeing layoffs in your community, Donald Trump decided today that none of that – none of it – matters to him,” Mr Biden said in a statement on Tuesday.

The Republican president – who is himself currently being treated for Covid-19 – countered: “Crazy Nancy Pelosi and the Radical Left Democrats were just playing ‘games’ with the desperately needed Workers Stimulus Payments.

“They just wanted to take care of Democrat failed, high crime, Cities and States. They were never in it to help the workers, and they never will be!”

He said he had instructed Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to focus efforts on confirming his Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett.

Mr McConnell later told reporters he supported the president’s move because he believed a deal with the Democrats was looking too difficult. “We need to concentrate on the achievable,” he said.

Lawmakers from both parties had hoped for another round of Covid-19 relief spending to pass ahead of the 3 November election, but Mr Trump’s tweet appears to have abruptly suspended that prospect.

It comes as coronavirus cases rise in several parts of the country, the outbreak widens among White House staff and Republican senators, and hits Pentagon top brass.

The millions of Americans ‘hanging by a thread’

Will coronavirus change America’s jobless stigma?

A very risky political move

Donald Trump’s decision to kill Covid-19 relief negotiations may be a brave stand on principle, ultimately siding with conservatives who are against more massive deficit-financed spending, but it is also a very risky political move.

A multi-trillion-dollar deal would have pumped stimulus into the economy at a time when the unemployment and business growth outlook is trending downward. A jobs and spending boost – or even the prospect of one – would have helped the president make the case that he, not Joe Biden, would be the best steward of the American economy for the next four years.

Instead, the stock market dropped precipitously on the president’s announcement, and the massive permanent layoffs that have already started in the travel and entertainment industries will continue apace.

This isn’t good news for Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, either, as her hardline negotiating strategy ended up with nothing to show for it. More moderate Democrats, who were already expressing frustration with the lack of a deal, will only sharpen their criticism of the Democratic leadership.

Whoever wins the elections in November won’t have long to savour their victories before having to face what is sure to be a large and growing economic crisis.

Who’s to blame?

In an all-too-familiar story of Washington gridlock, both Republicans and Democrats refused to compromise enough to meet in the middle.

The White House said it would back a Covid-19 relief bill of $1.6 trillion. But Mrs Pelosi was holding out for a more generous package.

Her House Democrats last week passed a $2.2tr stimulus bill, though that measure had no chance of advancing in the Republican-controlled Senate.

The Senate leader had indicated he would not support any legislation with a price tag of more than $2tr.

Mr Trump begrudgingly offered $250bn of funding for state and local governments. Mrs Pelosi was holding out for more than $400bn.

Republicans accused her of simply seeking a bail-out for Democratic-run states facing budgetary problems stemming from before the pandemic.

The White House said last week it favoured a $400 per week pandemic jobless benefit, but Democrats wanted $600.

What is the economic situation in the US?

Analysts have warned that the economic recovery risks stalling without further aid. While the US has regained about half the jobs lost in March and April, more than 10 million people remain unemployed.

In a speech on Tuesday, the head of America’s central bank, Jerome Powell, warned of “tragic” consequences should policymakers do too little and the pace of progress slow further.

“The expansion is still far from complete,” he said. “Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste.” 

Mr Trump’s unexpected announcement comes as many of the individual benefits previously approved by Congress have already run out.

The new Congress will not reconvene until January, following the November elections.

What was Pelosi’s response?

Mrs Pelosi accused Mr Trump of “putting himself first at the expense of the country”.

“He shows his contempt for science, his disdain for our heroes… and he refuses to put money in workers’ pockets, unless his name is printed on the cheque,” she added.

Nancy Pelosi breaks rules with hair salon visit

“Clearly, the White House is in complete disarray,” she said, calling on Trump officials to heed Mr Powell’s advice.

[atlanticsentinel]

Republicans Broke American Politics in Three Ways

Here's how Republicans broke American politics

View of the United States Capitol from the Washington Monument in Washington DC, March 18, 2011 (MudflapDC) Political scientists Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein argue in The New York Times that the Democratic and Republican Parties don’t share the blame for the sorry state American politics are in. Republicans are the ones who broke American politics, they write, in three ways: By…

[bluemagic-girl]

Rural Nevada Officials Worry About Impact Of ‘Storm Area 51’ Visitors : NPR

Grace Capati seems at a UFO show out of doors of the Little A’Le’Inn, in Rachel, Nev., the nearest the town to Area 51, the top-secret Cold War check website online within the Nevada desolate tract.

John Locher/AP

disguise caption

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John Locher/AP

Grace Capati seems at a UFO show out of doors of the Little A’Le’Inn, in Rachel, Nev., the nearest the town to Area 51, the top-secret Cold War check website online within the Nevada desolate tract.

John Locher/AP

No one in reality is aware of what number of people will go back and forth to rural Nevada subsequent month for the “Storm Area 51” tournament looking for to be told, neatly, one thing concerning the U.S. govt’s alleged dealing with of UFOs and extraterrestial beings within the faraway desolate tract check space. But leaders of a 2d Nevada county say that whilst there would possibly appear to be quite a few area for 1000’s, possibly hundreds of thousands, of visiting UFO hunters within the area, there may be in reality no room for them — nor meals, nor water, no longer even bogs. The commissioners of Nye County voted unanimously to claim a preemptive state of emergency to arrange for anticipated inflow of holiday makers for “Storm Area 51” occasions in close by Lincoln County. “Be prepared not to have cell service, not to have internet, said Commission Chairman Jon Koenig, since local cell phone towers are not equipped to handle such a heavy call volume. “There it will be no water to be had, there it will be no ice to be had as a result of the whole lot goes to promote out,” he added. “There it will be no fuel left within the fuel station, no meals, nowhere to move potty. If you might be coming, be ready as a result of it is most definitely no longer going to be great.”

Local regulation enforcement is concerned about gridlocked visitors and whether or not emergency responders will be capable of do their jobs. Nye Sheriff Capt. David Boruchowitz stated other people must no longer come. Leaders of neighboring Lincoln County briefly authorized a an identical emergency declaration closing week, bringing up the similar issues about their group’s skill to host 1000’s of holiday makers. The county has authorized two occasions in tiny cities of Hiko and Rachel for Sept. 20-22. In the city of Alamo, about 90 miles north of Las Vegas, alongside U.S. Route 93, native trade homeowners are getting ready for the onslaught of holiday makers and the visitors. “It’s going to crash these whole towns. It’s going to kill us,” stated Pam Broxson, an area inn proprietor. “It’s going to devastate us, but I’m prepared as we can possibly get.”

from Moose Gazette https://ift.tt/2Zydh9U via moosegazette.net

[davehodgetts-blog]

The grueling weekday routine could be stressful. Moving back and forth from the office to home is even worse. You may bump some random sulky strangers, exchange some heated useless arguments, or got stuck in an unending gridlock. These stuff make me rather impulsive to look for quick weekend getaway, a location distant enough from the toxic metro.

Before the most desired toodle-oo on the week’s terminal hours, I scanned around the internet to look for suggestions. I planned for a desolate trip again, masturdating, as they say, hence a staycation would be the top option. Then I found The Plaza Hotel Balaga in Agoda.

The Plaza Hotel, stunning at night

The Plaza Hotel facade

With the concept pinned from the past, the hotel is designed with Spanish Colonial architecture. The interiors, however, are inked on contemporary style and composition. The sleek, simple, and modern interiors perfectly create a stunning contrast with the spic, concrete-clad facade.

The Reception

Showing you the chandelier

Reception displays

The entertainment inside the suite

Showing you my comfy bed

The complimentary

pretty obvious, no caption needed

Shower area..

I got a chance to visit the roof top bar of the hotel. Aside from the interesting cocktails, which I did not try, is the awesome panoramic view of the city. From there you can see the fountain and light show, and other brilliant structures within Plaza Mayor de Ciudad de Balanga, including St. Joseph Cathedral.

The Saint Joseph Cathedral as viewed from the roof top bar of the Plaza Hotel

Cafe Kyoto

Cafe Kyoto dining

I was the first customer then, so I was a bit overwhelmed when I was served with three gorgeous ladies at the same time. One took my order and served my water, the other served me coffee, and the other served my meal.

My Filipino breakfast,

Galeria Victoria , the closest building to The Plaza Hotel, which is a host to a grocery store, dining, and shopping options.

I went to explore Mount Samat after my breakfast. When I returned, I still had time to freshen up and rest a bit before heading to my next stop, the Las Casa Filipinas de Acuzar. Verdict? I really enjoyed the stay, yeah, seriously!

Agoda.com/ThePlazaHotelBalanga Phone: +63 47 237 1037 | +63 917 310 5083 | +63 998 541 1741 Email: info@theplazahotelbalanga.com

The post The Plaza Hotel Balanga: Comfort and Accessibility appeared first on Freedom Wall.

[toldnews-blog]

New Post has been published on https://toldnews.com/world/deadly-fire-hits-bangkok-shopping-centre/

Deadly fire hits Bangkok shopping centre

Image copyright Reuters

Image caption Hundreds of people were evacuated from the shopping centre and hotel

At least two people have died after a fire broke out at a major Bangkok shopping mall complex on Wednesday.

The fire, which has now been brought under control, reportedly started on the eighth floor of the Centara Grand hotel at 17:40 local time (10:40 GMT).

At least one of those who died had fallen from the building, local reports say.

Videos on social media showed hundreds of people evacuating from the large shopping complex.

Other clips showed emergency services struggling to get through gridlocked rush-hour traffic to get to the scene.

Bangkok Governor Assawin Kwanmuang told local media that one person had died at the scene and two others at local hospital. He also said seven other people were injured.

Hospital and police officials could only confirm two fatalities.

Image copyright Google

Image caption The complex also contains the 57-floor Centara Grand hotel and convention centre

The cause of the fire has not been confirmed.

On their Facebook page, CentralWorld said (in Thai) that the fire was brought under control about 30 minutes after it started.

The shopping centre’s website describes it as the largest lifestyle shopping destination in Bangkok.

It is also said to be as the 11th largest complex of its kind in the world.

[harbourfronttechnologies]

Potential Black Swans and How to Hedge Against Them

It happened again, and again.

Last Thursday volatility increased sharply at around 1.30 p.m, then it came back to normal at the end of day. For now, we ignore the cause. But this event reinforced our observation: sharp volatility spikes occur more and more frequently these days.

[caption id="attachment_382" align="aligncenter" width="590"] Volatility on July 27, 2017. Souce: InteractiveBrokers[/caption]

In a low volatility environment like this one, market participants are becoming more and more aware of the potential risks caused by the volatility feedback loop which will happen when the short volatility players are forced to deleverage. Sharp spikes in volatility are usually caused by unanticipated, black swan type of events. According to Steve Cucchiaro, the following circumstances can have the potential of leading to black swans

Momentum is a principal reason why equities keep hitting new highs. Could this shift to momentum turn into a parabolic melt-up? If so, it could set the scenario for a black swan correction

A record amount of money is shorting the primary volatility index, the VIX. What would happen if some event were to change this environment? There likely would be a ton of short-covering in the VIX, which could turn a minor correction into a major one.

Kim Jung Un has been shooting off missiles in North Korea without consequence. Given that the North Korean regime appears irrational, who know what could happen. What if they “tried to take out our satellites?”

Increasing tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia threatens to destabilize more than the Middle East.

Gridlock in Washington looks worse than ever.

A major cyber-attack on our infrastructure, electrical grid or financial system has become a larger risk. Hackers are getting more sophisticated and their ability wreak havoc is rising.

The profits recession of 2015 is over and corporate bottom-lines are throwing off record amounts of income. What if this is the last great quarter of corporate earnings for the current cycle?

What about a bond market meltdown? After 35-year rally in bonds, interest rates remain near historic lows. Most major central banks are all trying to normalize on a synchronized basis. Read more

Nobody knows when a black swan will happen. So the right question to ask is: how to protect oneself from the black swan events?

We believe that using VIX options to construct ratio call spreads (for example 1x2 VIX calls) is a sensible solution.

We note that recently, Joe Ciolli of Business Insider presented an example of a hedge against a massive increase in volatility. But according to his post, we think that the trade is risky, so this is not a good hedge.

To fund it, the investor sold 262,000 VIX puts expiring in October, with a strike price of 12.

The trader then used those proceeds to buy a VIX 1x2 call spread, which involves buying 262,000 October contracts with a strike price of 15 and selling 524,000 October contracts with a strike price of 25.

In a perfect scenario, where the VIX hits but doesn't exceed 25 before October expiration, the trader would see a whopping $262 million payout.

It is possible for the VIX to spike too much. If it increased beyond 35.2, the investor would start to lose money since they used a call spread, even though they got the direction of the trade correct.

For context, VIX October futures are trading at 13.6, while the spot index closed at 9.62 on Thursday. Read more

Alternatively, the trade was constructed and executed correctly, but it was misinterpreted by the journalist.

Originally Published Here: Potential Black Swans and How to Hedge Against Them

[patrickbensei]

Travellers hit by more snow and ice delays

Image copyright Andrew Matthews/PA Wire

Image caption This was the scene for drivers on Ringway West in Basingstoke on Friday evening

Travel by road, rail and air has been disrupted by snow and ice, with weather warnings issued for Friday and overnight.

The Met Office yellow warnings for snow and ice cover several areas of the UK, while a separate warning for ice is in place for southern England.

“Treacherous driving conditions” are hampering some southern areas, it says.

Highways England says delays have hit the M3, A303 and A34 in Hampshire and Wiltshire.

Snow at a depth of 17cm (7in) was recorded in Hampshire near Basingstoke, the Met Office said.

Hundreds of schools across Wales and southern parts of England were closed for the day due to the conditions.

At Bristol Airport most of the day’s flights were cancelled.

The airport advised passengers to check flight information with their airline but said they expected a normal service on Saturday.

Highways England said there was only one lane open from junction 6 to juncton 7 on the M3 westbound near Basingstoke, due to three stranded HGVs. It said surrounding roads were also “treacherous”.

Basingstoke and North Hampshire Hospital made an appeal for nursing staff within walking distance to help, as it faced staffing issues due to the gridlock.

Drivers in Surrey also face delays, with the A31 and A3 among the major roads affected.

Skip Twitter post by @HighwaysSEAST

Challenging driving conditions and delays #M3 #A303 and #A34 in #Hampshire #Wiltshire at the moment due to weather conditions. Please take extra care! We're working with @HantsPolice @wiltshirepolice to clear incidents as quickly as possible.

— Highways England (@HighwaysSEAST) February 1, 2019

Report

End of Twitter post by @HighwaysSEAST

Salt-spreaders covered 80,000 miles of England’s motorways and major A roads through Thursday night to keep traffic moving, Highways England said.

Latest as more snow due to hit UK

In Pictures: Some of the most striking images of snowfall

Rough sleeping: What is being done about homelessness?

How do I efficiently de-ice my car?

In pictures: Snow dogs of England

Flight disruption at airports in Cardiff and Bristol affected rugby fans heading to Paris ahead of Friday’s France v Wales Six Nations opener, with ex-Wales captain Sam Warburton among those caught up in the chaos.

On the trains, Transport for Wales said services were now running as normal after some disruption in the morning, while Great Western Railway – which earlier warned of disruption until 12:00 – said a near-normal service had resumed.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionZSL Whipsnade Zoo animals explore snowy conditions

Some Eurostar services were also cancelled on Friday.

The match between Port Vale and Tranmere Rovers was the first of the weekend’s English League fixtures to be postponed because of a frozen pitch, while five Scottish League One and Two matches were also postponed.

Several of Saturday’s matches will be subject to pitch inspections in the morning but fans heading for matches can check for the latest updates on postponements on the BBC Sport website.

Skip Twitter post by @TranmereRovers

👎 Game postponed.

Tomorrow's game @OfficialPVFC has been postponed due to a frozen pitch. A new date for this fixture will be announced in due course.#TRFC #SWA pic.twitter.com/VpHq0g055m

— Tranmere Rovers (@TranmereRovers) February 1, 2019

Report

End of Twitter post by @TranmereRovers

In Bath the Corridor shopping centre was closed on Friday after two separate roof collapses due to snow.

The weather meant few shoppers were around and no-one hurt.

In East Ham, east London, a baby girl was found abandoned in a shopping bag in park in near-freezing temperatures on Thursday evening.

Ovidijus Zvaliauskas found the baby with his mother, who was walking her dog.

He told BBC News it was so cold the baby had frost on her head. “There’s no words for it. It’s terrible,” he said.

The newborn girl was taken to hospital and is said to be in a stable condition. Medical staff have been calling her Roman, as the play area she was found was situated just off Roman Road.

Image copyright Met Police

Image caption The baby girl was discovered in a shopping bag next to a park bench

South-west England was worst affected on Thursday night, with snow depths of 12cm (5in) recorded in Bodmin, the Met Office said.

Parts of Cumbria saw 8cm of snow, while there was 7cm recorded in Inverness-shire and 5cm in Powys.

Image copyright PA

Image caption The Duke and Duchess of Sussex visited the Bristol Old Vic theatre

Image copyright Getty Images

Image caption Children in Poundbury. Dorchester took advantage of the snowfall

Image copyright Matt Argyle

Image caption Drivers were stuck on the A30 in Cornwall overnight

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionThree easy tips for driving in the snow

Temperatures fell to their lowest level this winter, with Braemar, Aberdeenshire, dropping to -15.4C (6F) in the early hours of Friday.

This is the lowest in the UK since 2012 – when temperatures fell to -15.6C in Holbeach, Lincolnshire.

The cold start to the day saw hundreds of school closures in different parts of the UK. More than 500 schools were shut in Wales, with about 200 in Berkshire, 250 in Wiltshire and 300 in Buckinghamshire also closed.

What’s the forecast?

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Media captionMore disruption is possible from ice but brighter weather is expected this weekend

BBC weather presenter Stav Danaos said travel disruption is likely throughout Friday night and into Saturday due to lying snow and ice.

It will remain cold on Saturday but wintry showers will become increasingly confined to the eastern coast of the UK, leaving some spells of sunshine.

What warnings are in place?

There are yellow warnings for snow and ice covering northern Scotland, most of Northern Ireland, the eastern coast of England and the west coast of Wales until 12:00 GMT on Saturday.

They warn of some snow showers, with heavier accumulations of up to 5cm possible in northern Scotland and up to 10cm over higher ground.

There is also a yellow warning for snow, covering parts of south-east England, between 16:00 GMT and midnight on Friday, with accumulations of 2-3cm likely and up to 7cm possible over higher ground.

A separate warning for ice is in place for southern England until 11:00 GMT on Saturday, as Friday’s snow gradually eases during the evening.

Yellow warnings are issued for low level impacts including some disruption to travel. People should check the latest forecast and check how they might be impacted.

You can read the Met Office guide to its warnings here or watch our handy breakdown.

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Original Article : HERE ; This post was curated & posted using : RealSpecific

Travellers hit by more snow and ice delays was originally posted by News Now