#42go

[specialists-opinions]

'The potential for war is real' – Prof Mearsheimer on India, China and Thucydides trap

144,585 views • May 3, 2025

Professor and Freddy Gray discuss Donald Trump’s foreign policy during his second term, focusing on the Middle East and U.S. relations with Iran. They look at Trump's instincts versus execution, divisions within the administration, diplomacy with Iran, and the broader geopolitical stakes involving Russia, Israel, and China.

Transcript

0:00[Music]

0:01what about centrifugal forces inside

0:04Iran i mean it's clear that there have

0:06been has been a lot of discontent within

0:10Iran Uh the society is not just this

0:13simple uh obedient theocratic state Um

0:18there's there is resistance uh to Kmeni

0:22and to to the regime Uh Iran could

0:26collapse more quickly than Israel surely

0:30There's no question that there's

0:31centrifugal forces in play inside Iran

0:34But the question I have for you is okay

0:38what do you suggest we do well maybe

0:41help it collapse let it collapse

0:44And how do we do that difficult question

0:47to answer

0:49I mean the Israeli solution is to bomb

0:52Iran a massive air offensive involving

0:56the United States and Israel against

0:57Iran First of all I think if anything

1:00that will cause a rally around the flag

1:03effect in Iran and it will work in

1:05exactly opposite the way in an opposite

1:07way from the one you're describing But

1:10furthermore uh when you get into the

1:13business of social engineering on the

1:15foreign policy front Freddy you

1:17invariably get yourself into huge

1:19trouble You want to remember we tried to

1:21do social engineering in Afghanistan How

1:24well did that work out we tried to do

1:26social engineering in Iraq How well did

1:29that work out we tried to do social

1:31engineering in Libya How well did that

1:34work out i could go on and on Vietnam

1:36I've learned Vietnam Exactly You know I

1:39cut my teeth on Vietnam I was in the

1:42American military from 1965 to 1975

1:45which was co-terminous with the Vietnam

1:47War Uh and uh I learned in those years

1:52that you want to stay out of places like

1:54Vietnam If you think you can go into

1:56countries like Vietnam Iraq Afghanistan

1:58and do social engineering uh you're

2:01going to get yourself into one well of a

2:03lot of trouble And I would note to you

2:05Freddy the Soviets went into Afghanistan

2:08before we went in and that did not work

2:10out very well And the British were in

2:12Afghanistan before the Soviets and that

2:14did not work very out very well And the

2:16French were in Vietnam before we were in

2:18there and that did not work out very

2:20well And oh by the way after we left

2:22Vietnam in 1975 and 1979 the Chinese

2:27invaded Vietnam and they got their

2:29stouts whacked You want to stay out of

2:31these countries You don't want to get

2:32involved in social engineering and you

2:35certainly don't want to get involved in

2:36social engineering at the end of a rifle

2:39barrel Well that uh is something again

2:42going back to your point about Trump's

2:43instinct that's something that the Trump

2:45administration appears to understand uh

2:47much more clearly than its predecessors

2:50Absolutely I think that Trump's basic

2:53instincts on foreign policy the issues

2:56that I know about and care about deeply

2:59are correct His instincts are correct

3:02It's the execution

3:05uh where you run into big trouble Uh the

3:10and execution is terribly important

3:12Freddy in large part because these are

3:14incredibly complicated problems Uh I

3:17mean one of

3:19Trump's fundamental mistakes to start

3:22with uh this time round was that he

3:26thought that he could deal with the

3:28problems rather easily If you listen to

3:31him talk about Ukraine he thought that

3:34he could come in and he could shut down

3:36the Ukraine war in a day or two Indeed

3:39he was talking about shutting down the

3:40Ukraine war even before he moved into

3:43the White House Anybody who's studied

3:46the Ukraine conflict and USRussia

3:50relations knows that shutting down this

3:54conflict and improving relations with

3:56the Russians is going to involve a

3:58herculean effort Uh it's almost

4:01impossible to figure out how you can do

4:03this Maybe you can do it but it's going

4:05to be a very difficult task But Trump

4:09was quite flippant in his views about

4:11how easy it would be and he's now

4:14finding out it's not easy And the same

4:16thing goes with Iran And the same thing

4:19goes with the Israel Palestine conflict

4:22And the same thing goes with tariffs

4:23These are really tricky issues Uh the

4:27reason that we rely on experts and

4:30President Trump does not like experts He

4:32prefers to rely on his instincts as he

4:35said when he talked about how he makes

4:37tariff policy Prefers to rely on

4:39instincts You can't rely on instincts

4:42you have to rely on experts uh because

4:46these are incredibly complicated issues

4:49I mean Trump is the ultimate decider and

4:51there's no question about that and

4:53that's the way it should be But he

4:55should be listening to people who have

4:57studied these problems uh and letting

5:00them help him figure out how to get out

5:03of these problems But he has not done

5:05that You mentioned earlier about how uh

5:08one of the difficult things about

5:09foreign policy is that it's very hard to

5:12keep one's eye on uh the same ball um

5:16when there are so many different balls

5:17uh moving around Uh and this is

5:19particularly hard for American

5:21presidents and and White House uh

5:24administrations Um one story that's sort

5:27of popped up really it's been rumbling

5:30for a very long time but there was this

5:31terrible terrorist attack uh in India um

5:34and has now triggered uh a potentially

5:37nuclear conflict that Western analysts

5:40often just sort of forget about uh

5:42because we're so focused on the Middle

5:44East and uh Ukraine more recently um and

5:47perhaps China and Taiwan But uh if um

5:51India and Pakistan go to war that is a

5:54conflict that uh I mean does America

5:57have any uh way of trying to moderate

6:00that conflict

6:02you know it's funny Freddy but I was at

6:03a conference at Yale uh on uh Thursday

6:08Friday and Saturday that was devoted to

6:10India uh and uh right before the

6:15conference started the terrorist attack

6:18uh in Kashmir took place So I have been

6:22thinking uh for obvious reasons about

6:25the India Pakistan conflict uh over the

6:28past few days Uh just to butress your

6:33point what's very interesting it's hard

6:35to find uh uh serious discussion of this

6:40conflict in the newspapers these days

6:43because there are all sorts of other

6:44issues like Ukraine Iran tariffs and so

6:47forth and so on that dominate it So this

6:50issue has been pushed off to the side in

6:53a very important way because not only

6:56President Trump but all of us can only

6:58deal with so many issues at the same

7:01time Uh now this is a very dangerous

7:06situation Uh these are two nuclear armed

7:10countries that have a history of

7:12fighting wars And in the past the United

7:15States has intervened in crisis between

7:19these two countries to go to great

7:22lengths to shut them down Mainly what

7:24we've tried to do is make sure that the

7:26Indians didn't launch a major attack

7:29against Pakistan which would then leave

7:32Pakistan maybe to use nuclear weapons Uh

7:37but you don't have the sense that the

7:38Trump administration is paying careful

7:40attention to this conflict or that

7:43President Trump uh will intervene in a

7:46major way to dampen down the tensions

7:49the way previous presidents have because

7:52he's so busy on so many other fronts Uh

7:55so it could be the case let's hope this

7:58is not the case that this one could spin

8:00out of control and you could have a real

8:02war and nuclear weapons might even be

8:05used because you want to remember Freddy

8:07if you look at the conventional balance

8:09of power between Pakistan and India it

8:12greatly favors the Indians And we've

8:15always feared that a conflict that

8:17started off at the conventional level

8:19would escalate to the nuclear level

8:21because the Pakistanis would feel

8:23compelled to turn to nuclear weapons if

8:25they were losing conventionally which we

8:27expected to happen None of this is to

8:30say that in the past or even now a war

8:34will happen and nuclear weapons will be

8:36used But the fact is there is real

8:39potential for a real war and there is

8:41real potential for nuclear use And in

8:44that kind of situation you want

8:46President Trump you want the United

8:48States to be deeply involved in trying

8:51to settle this short of a shooting match

8:55But I don't have the sense that that's

8:56what we're doing Maybe we are and I'm

8:58just not reading about it Let's hope

9:00that's the case But uh this is just

9:03another example of another ball in the

9:05air Well I wonder if uh you were pretty

9:08down on tariffs earlier but I wonder if

9:10this is an area where tariffs can give

9:13America um substant substantial

9:16negotiating uh leverage Um I mean JD

9:20Vance visited India last week Um yet

9:24last night uh Trump suggested that a a

9:27free trade deal was on the horizon I

9:30don't know whether um the situation in

9:31Kashmir has been part of those

9:33discussions I don't think anybody has

9:35said so publicly Um but surely America

9:39could say you might want to hold off

9:41retaliating or you might want to do what

9:43we want in this conflict or this free

9:46trade deal that we are now in the

9:48process of agreeing will be out the

9:49window

9:52I don't think we would do that I think

9:55relations between the Trump

9:56administration and the Modi

9:58administration are very good and we're

10:02not likely to play hard ball uh with

10:05Modi in the way you just described Um

10:10but uh maybe maybe that's the case I do

10:14agree with your general point that

10:17although I think that tariffs uh the way

10:21they were implemented made no sense uh I

10:24I do think that uh the possibility of

10:28walking back the tariffs does give us

10:30leverage over allies uh and adversaries

10:34alike Uh so I think that we do have some

10:38leverage there Uh maybe Trump could tell

10:42the Indians that he'd give them a real

10:43sweetheart deal uh if he felt they were

10:46on the verge of going to war and Trump

10:50didn't want them to go to war But uh

10:53just hard to say what's going on with

10:55regard to US Indian relations uh over

10:58the Cashmere uh crisis at this point in

11:02time You've touched on uh China a couple

11:06of times It seems to me looking at

11:09almost everything the Trump

11:10administration does whether it's uh the

11:13war on DEI uh in Harvard and that

11:16actually involves um fighting back

11:18against a lot of uh Chinese influence in

11:20American higher education institutions

11:23or whether it's uh the Panama Canal the

11:25Gulf of America as it's now called um or

11:29whether it's Greenland or whether it's

11:31um even Iran and the Middle East and and

11:34Ukraine too and of course Taiwan China

11:37is increasingly the main strategic focus

11:41and the Trump

11:42administration all the sound and fury

11:44that it makes on the world stage There's

11:46always a Chinese element uh in its

11:49thinking There's no question about that

11:51You want to remember what I said about

11:52Trump's first administration right only

11:57radical change that was made in foreign

12:00policy or domestic policy was with

12:03regard to our approach to China Up until

12:072017 when Trump moved into the White

12:10House the United States had pursued a

12:13policy of engagement with China This was

12:16true in Republican administrations and

12:18it was true in Democratic

12:20administrations Both the Clinton

12:22administration and the George W Bush

12:24administration played a key role in

12:26bringing China into the World Trade

12:29Organization which helped China grow its

12:31economy by leaps and bounds But when

12:34Trump came into office in 2017 he

12:38abandoned engagement and he did 180°ree

12:43turn and adopted a policy of containment

12:46So Trump has had his eye on China as a

12:50potential threat for a long time And as

12:54I said he also was interested in

12:56improving relations with the Russians in

12:59his first administration because he

13:02wanted to have good relations with the

13:04Russians so that we could pivot to Asia

13:06and so that we could peel the Russians

13:09away from the Chinese Right so from the

13:12get-go Trump has been very oriented

13:16towards containing China Biden it's

13:19important to un to emphasize Biden

13:22followed in Trump's footsteps Biden did

13:26not did not go back to engagement He

13:28stuck with containment And in fact you

13:31could argue that Biden was tougher on

13:34containment visav China than Trump was

13:37in the first administration Now Trump is

13:41back to dealing with China He wants to

13:44focus on China This is what we were

13:47talking about when we focused on Pete

13:49Hexith before Hexith is a China hawk He

13:52wants to contain China There's just no

13:55question about that Uh and you want to

13:58understand what's happened here Freddy

14:00is that since 2017 when Trump first

14:04moved into the White House the balance

14:07of power between China and the United

14:10States has shifted in China's favor We

14:13are still we meaning the United States

14:15is still the most powerful state on the

14:17planet China is clearly number two but

14:20China is closing the gap And the United

14:22States lives in mortal fear that the

14:25Chinese are going to dominate

14:28uh cutting edge technologies moving

14:30forward We have a competition with the

14:33Chinese as to who's going to develop

14:35sophisticated technologies moving

14:37forward And the great fear in the United

14:39States is that the Chinese are going to

14:41beat us at that game And that's going to

14:43have huge economic consequences And

14:46furthermore as the Chinese economy grows

14:50and closes the gap between its size and

14:52the size of the American economy it

14:54takes that economic wherewithal and

14:57translates it into military might So the

15:01Chinese military is growing more and

15:03more powerful with the passage of time

15:06The Chinese are not only building

15:08military forces that will be uh useful

15:12in East Asia They're also developing

15:14power projection capability They're

15:16building a blue water navy They want a

15:19military that can go along with their

15:21belt and road initiative The Chinese are

15:23imitating the United States And this

15:26really spooks the Americans and the

15:29Americans want to contain China Again as

15:32I said this was true of the Biden

15:33administration and it is certainly true

15:36of the Trump administration But what you

15:38want to understand is that because we're

15:41pinned down in the Middle East and we're

15:43pinned down in Ukraine it's very

15:46difficult for us to pivot to

15:49Asia The best example of this and it's a

15:52very important example is our war

15:55against the Houthies Right the United

15:58States has huge numbers of naval assets

16:02deployed in and around the Red Sea for

16:05purposes of fighting against the Houthis

16:08What's happening is we are expending

16:11huge amounts of ammunition against the

16:14Houthies that is needed for East Asia We

16:18have large numbers of naval forces in

16:22the Middle East that should be in East

16:24Asia It just shows you the difficulty

16:27we're having pivoting to Asia to deal

16:30with China And this is all at the same

16:32time that China is growing more powerful

16:36militarily And again this gets back to

16:38the Iran scenario Do we really want to

16:42launch a major war against

16:44Iran that will go on for a long period

16:48of time that will necessitate keeping

16:50large numbers of American forces in the

16:52Middle East for a long period of time

16:55when we have to be principally concerned

16:58with East Asia and containing China and

17:01of course the answer to that is no

17:04I I think what you in in relation to

17:07China I think what you're talking about

17:08there is what people in your world call

17:10the Thusidities trap which I believe was

17:12Allison's term was it originally uh that

17:15two superpowers cannot really exist uh

17:18together or at least one superpower

17:20cannot replace another super power

17:22without there being a major war Uh do

17:25you think that trap has inevitably been

17:28sprung is springing is it is a major

17:31conflict between China and America

17:34inevitable let me tell you what my basic

17:36argument here is Uh the thusidities trap

17:40is an argument that Graham Allison laid

17:43out which is different than mine My

17:46argument is that any great power uh in

17:50an ideal world wants to dominate its

17:53region It wants to be a regional

17:56hegeimon Uh it wants to be by far the

17:59most powerful in its region of the world

18:02and it also wants to make sure that it

18:05does not have a peer regional hegeimon

18:10The United States is the only regional

18:13hegeimon in modern history We dominate

18:17the Western Hemisphere There is no

18:20threat to the United States from any

18:23other country military threat from any

18:26other country in the Western Hemisphere

18:28We are a regional hegeimon At the same

18:30time we go to great lengths to make sure

18:34that there is no other regional hegeimon

18:37either in Europe or in East Asia

18:40Therefore we went to great lengths to

18:42help defeat Imperial Germany Nazi

18:45Germany Imperial Japan and the Soviet

18:49Union We played a key role in putting

18:51all four of those countries on the scrap

18:53heap of history because the United

18:55States does not tolerate peer regional

18:59hegeimons The problem that we face with

19:02China is because it's so powerful it

19:05threatens to dominate all of Asia the

19:09way we dominate the Western Hemisphere

19:12And that is unacceptable to the United

19:14States And this largely explains why

19:17President Trump when he moved into the

19:18White House in January 2017 abandoned

19:22engagement and pursued containment

19:25policy And it's why Joe Biden doubled

19:28down on Trump's containment policy

19:31because both of them understood that

19:33China cannot be allowed to become a

19:36regional hegeimon Now one final point it

19:40does not mean that war is inevitable

19:44with regard to Imperial Germany Imperial

19:47Japan and Nazi Germany Obviously there

19:50were wars world wars and the United

19:52States got involved to prevent those

19:54countries from becoming regional

19:55hegeimons But if you think back to the

19:58cold war which you and I know well in

20:00the cold war thankfully we did not have

20:04a hot war It was a cold war And the

20:06Soviet Union lost the cold war And then

20:09the Soviet Union disintegrated in

20:11December

20:131991 But it was without a shooting war

20:16between the United States and the Soviet

20:18Union Let's hope that the security

20:21competition that has now set in where

20:24the United States is trying to prevent

20:26China from dominating Asia ends up like

20:29the Cold War and not like World War I

20:32and World War II It's very important

20:35especially since we live in the nuclear

20:37age that we not have a war between China

20:40and the United States But the potential

20:43Freddy for a war is real because China

20:47has a deep-seated interest in dominating

20:49Asia It's in China's interest and we

20:52have a deep-seated interest in

20:54preventing China from dominating Asia

[shebalegend-blog]

#4down #42go #brownnotbroken #neva2late #masculineusproject #becuzisediwould #action (at New York, New York) https://www.instagram.com/p/CPZhpOShnIP/?utm_medium=tumblr

[fantomette22]

Wow i really had 42Go of Bloodborne screenshots and recording on my ps5 💀

[doublestupid]

hey what's up0:04so uh0:07um0:08i posted a transcript of what i said0:12um0:15and then uh rob robert o'neill0:19interview with sean ryan0:22and uh0:25that that feeling man0:28um just0:31so good0:33but i'll tell you what0:57[Music]1:05[Music]1:13like when it's all said and done1:17um1:20you know1:21uh1:25[Music]1:28this is what it's all about man i'll1:29tell you what it's all about1:31about this1:32this1:33[Music]1:34from this1:38um1:40it's just1:43uh1:45i don't know how to describe it1:51i'll tell i'll read it to you1:55i'll read it to you a little bit1:59um2:07[Music]2:18so2:36so this is this book here2:41um2:42[Music]2:47dafa2:59shi3:01chuang shi3:09zhu de zhi huiso what it means um3:12what it means is3:14great3:15law3:17is3:19start3:20world3:22head3:24of3:26wisdom3:28and so on and so forth i'll3:32bring it back to what i'm reading3:39[Music]3:44zhe zhu3:46you3:48zenshanren3:51jejong to shinda3:55is exactly is3:57[Music]3:59has4:01zhenshanren4:03this4:05kind4:06special4:07nature4:10uh4:11and and it's a whole you know4:13book um4:15but it's just so awesome you know um4:19yeah4:21that about sums it up4:23um4:26like4:27life is good man life is amazing but4:29tell you no matter as good as it feels4:34like4:35you know i spent the whole4:38last four days4:40just you know4:42going hard you know4:44chewing dip4:47drinking coffee4:50just working4:54and4:54uh4:56so this morning um4:592 3 a.m i woke up and i had to finish5:01watching sean ryan5:03and you know i'm tired but i just5:08yeah finish watching the interview5:11then i gotta leave the house around six5:13so5:15i didn't get much sleep and i'm just5:18spent you know5:28it's kind of like5:29dj shipley you see he said that when he5:32got electrocuted5:34he he got like superhuman vision5:38kind of going all out5:40past your limit all the time that's how5:42you are all the time5:44that's how you are all the time5:49and and still no matter what at the end5:51of the day5:53it just comes down to that to these5:55words you know5:57like it's nothing compared to these5:59words however and it6:01in itself it's it's beyond belief like6:05you can't describe how and how6:08um6:09just6:12just how6:13you know6:16um6:20and you know how6:24how much there's to it6:28how magic things are6:31you know6:33but it's still6:35yeah6:39that's that's awesome that's pretty cool6:45excuse me6:47so i'm a little hungover so to speak but6:52it's nothing you know

hey what’s up0:04so uh0:07um0:08i posted a transcript of what i said0:12um0:15and then uh rob robert o’neill0:19interview with sean ryan0:22and uh0:25that that feeling man0:28um just0:31so good0:33but i’ll tell you what0:57[Music]1:05[Music]1:13like when it’s all said and done1:17um1:20you know1:21uh1:25[Music]1:28this is what it’s all about man i’ll1:29tell you what it’s all about1:31about this1:32this1:33[Music]1:34from this1:38um1:40it’s just1:43uh1:45i don’t know how to describe it1:51i’ll tell i’ll read it to you1:55i’ll read it to you a little bit1:59um2:07[Music]2:18so2:36so this is this book here2:41um2:42[Music]2:47dafa2:59shi3:01chuang shi3:09zhu de zhi huiso what it means um3:12what it means is3:14great3:15law3:17is3:19start3:20world3:22head3:24of3:26wisdom3:28and so on and so forth i’ll3:32bring it back to what i’m reading3:39[Music]3:44zhe zhu3:46you3:48zenshanren3:51jejong to shinda3:55is exactly is3:57[Music]3:59has4:01zhenshanren4:03this4:05kind4:06special4:07nature4:10uh4:11and and it’s a whole you know4:13book um4:15but it’s just so awesome you know um4:19yeah4:21that about sums it up4:23um4:26like4:27life is good man life is amazing but4:29tell you no matter as good as it feels4:34like4:35you know i spent the whole4:38last four days4:40just you know4:42going hard you know4:44chewing dip4:47drinking coffee4:50just working4:54and4:54uh4:56so this morning um4:592 3 a.m i woke up and i had to finish5:01watching sean ryan5:03and you know i’m tired but i just5:08yeah finish watching the interview5:11then i gotta leave the house around six5:13so5:15i didn’t get much sleep and i’m just5:18spent you know5:28it’s kind of like5:29dj shipley you see he said that when he5:32got electrocuted5:34he he got like superhuman vision5:38kind of going all out5:40past your limit all the time that’s how5:42you are all the time5:44that’s how you are all the time5:49and and still no matter what at the end5:51of the day5:53it just comes down to that to these5:55words you know5:57like it’s nothing compared to these5:59words however and it6:01in itself it’s it’s beyond belief like6:05you can’t describe how and how6:08um6:09just6:12just how6:13you know6:16um6:20and you know how6:24how much there’s to it6:28how magic things are6:31you know6:33but it’s still6:35yeah6:39that’s that’s awesome that’s pretty cool6:45excuse me6:47so i’m a little hungover so to speak but6:52it’s nothing you know

hey what’s up0:04so uh0:07um0:08i posted a transcript of what i said0:12um0:15and then uh rob robert o’neill0:19interview with sean ryan0:22and uh0:25that that feeling man0:28um just0:31so good0:33but i’ll tell you what0:57[Music]1:05[Music]1:13like when it’s all said and done1:17um1:20you know1:21uh1:25[Music]1:28this is what it’s all about man i’ll1:29tell you what it’s all about1:31about…

[specialists-opinions]

Prof. Jeffrey Sachs [Live from Moscow] : Does Trump Want Peace?

104,922 views Streamed live 15 hours ago Prof. Jeffrey Sachs [Live from Moscow] : Does Trump Want Peace?

Transcript

0:09[Music]

0:19heat heat

0:21[Music]

0:32hi everyone Judge Andrew Npalitano here

0:35for Judging Freedom today is Tuesday

0:38April 29th 2025 joining us now from

0:42Moscow is our dear friend uh and regular

0:46colleague Professor Jeffrey Sax

0:47professor Sax always a pleasure thank

0:50you very much great night where you are

0:52but thank you very much for joining us

0:55and of course you're there with other

0:57friends of ours and I'm glad that you

0:59all uh got together um I want to ask you

1:03about President Trump's efforts to bring

1:06about peace between Ukraine

1:09uh and Russia in the past week uh the

1:12vice president of the United States and

1:14the secretary of state both said "We're

1:17thinking of the US is thinking of giving

1:20up on Ukraine if something isn't

1:22resolved uh in a week." Also in the last

1:26week General uh Kellogg one of the

1:28president's senior adviserss on Ukraine

1:30came out with an idea that is absurd

1:33it's a non-starter from the beginning

1:36with NATO dividing the country into

1:40protectorates and last week

1:43surprisingly President Trump and

1:45President Sinski chatted for a couple of

1:48minutes and of all places St peter's

1:50Basilica a place that you and I have

1:52visited together um I thought it was odd

1:56that they would have a conversation

1:57without anybody else participating and

1:59I'm sure that President Trump will

2:01remember it differently than President

2:02Sinsky did with all those things

2:05happening with with the pressure on

2:08President Sinski not to concede any real

2:12estate to President Putin where is the

2:16United States going in its peace efforts

2:19according to Jeffrey Sachs

2:21I think we have to keep in mind two

2:24basic points one is Ukraine is losing on

2:29the battlefield and this will not be

2:32reversed in the coming months and indeed

2:35the coming years second the United

2:38States under President Trump is not

2:42going to get back into the war in an

2:45active way with finance and military

2:49supplies for Ukraine

2:52what this adds up to is that Ukraine has

2:56a a real choice and the choice is make a

3:01settlement that is not uh according to

3:06its wish list but is a settlement that

3:09reflects uh the realities that Ukraine

3:13faces or face further losses on the

3:18battlefield that's effectively the

3:21choice i don't think the United States

3:24government is going to change that

3:28fundamental choice faced by the

3:31Ukrainian government now the Europeans

3:36many of them I should say because Europe

3:38is divided on this question but the UK

3:41under Starmer uh France under Manuel

3:45Mcronone uh Germany probably with its

3:49incoming administration

3:52of Chancellor to be Mertz uh are saying

3:57that Ukraine should fight on and not

4:00seed territory but Europe doesn't really

4:04have the means to make that claim

4:08effective because Europe plus the US was

4:12not pushing back Russia russia was still

4:16advancing now it's Russia uh without um

4:21the US on the other side and Europe has

4:25no means to uh uh push for uh its

4:30argument that Ukraine should fight on

4:34what all of this means in summary is

4:37that we're reaching a kind of endgame uh

4:40either Ukraine uh to its intense

4:45displeasure of this ruling group or not

4:50agrees to some peace arrangement and we

4:54know what the structure of that would be

4:56or it would very likely face continuing

5:01military defeat that I think is where

5:04we're heading

5:06my guess at the end of all of this is

5:10that we're actually heading towards an

5:13end of the war with the

5:17Ukrainians coming to the uh realization

5:22as deeply unpleasant as it is that they

5:25had better settle or else they will lose

5:28everything

5:30is it fair to

5:32characterize President Sinski as a

5:35puppet of deeply hardcore uh nationalist

5:40figures and pro probably yes

5:45probably what we're seeing in Ukraine is

5:49the exercise of an

5:52extraordinarily extreme and violent

5:56nationalism which was uh uh in the

6:01ascendancy for many years and basically

6:04which took power in a coup in uh

6:08February 2014 a coup backed by the

6:12United States in fact part of a

6:15long-term US strategy uh long-term US

6:19collaboration with extreme uh right-wing

6:22uh militarized forces in Ukraine and so

6:28what we're seeing is an extremist regime

6:32it does not rule now by popular ascent

6:36there are no elections this

6:39is effectively military rule it is

6:42martial law uh the population in Ukraine

6:47as best one can guess from opinion

6:49surveys is exhausted and wants the war

6:52to end but the regime in power is a

6:57clique of extremists on the right that

7:02are determined to find anyone to give

7:05them the arms and the financing uh

7:08to impress the public

7:13into deadly service that is to grab

7:16people off the streets and push them to

7:18the front lines to their death and

7:20that's what the Ukrainian regime is

7:22doing this is an important point I think

7:25that we need to underscore the idea

7:29that Trump is somehow siding with Putin

7:34against Ukraine is the opposite of the

7:37truth the idea

7:39that Starmer of UK and Mcronone of

7:44France uh are somehow siding with

7:46Ukraine against Russia is the opposite

7:49of the truth the war party is the party

7:53condemning Ukraine to massive further

7:57bloodshed the peace party in this case

8:01led by President Trump is saving Ukraine

8:06not on Ukraine's terms because Ukraine

8:10wants things that it cannot get it can't

8:14win those on the battlefield it is not

8:18able to achieve its maximal demands what

8:23President Trump is saying is you can't

8:26achieve those here is something on offer

8:29which saves Ukraine gives security

8:33stabilizes or ends the fighting I should

8:35say stabilizes the situation and that is

8:41the offer that Ukraine should take

8:43because the

8:44alternative is to lose everything and I

8:47should add that Vice President Vance

8:51made this statement absolutely clearly

8:54correctly and explicitly in recent days

8:58so this this is really the core

9:02president Trump is not anti- Ukraine and

9:05Ukraine's supposed supporters are the

9:07ones driving Ukraine to further massive

9:11loss of life chris put up the uh picture

9:14from St peter's Basilica

9:17uh please of Trump and Zalinski uh isn't

9:21this really a waste of time i mean is

9:26President

9:28Zalinski free to negotiate and free to

9:33concede real estate like Crimea and and

9:37the vast percentages of the four Oblasts

9:40uh which have historically uh been

9:42Russian is he free to make these

9:44decisions without the loss of his own

9:46life

9:48of course we don't know the fact of the

9:51matter is that if uh he is in a position

9:55where he knows that Ukraine is losing

10:02that if he doesn't take the peace offer

10:05it's much worse but he resists taking it

10:09because of fear of his uh life uh

10:12physically or politically if that's

10:14really the choice that he faces and he

10:18can't make the choice other than to

10:20continue the slaughter he's definitely

10:22got the wrong job uh that's not a

10:25situation he should be in uh it's not a

10:27situation he absolutely has to be in i

10:30don't envy I don't envy his situation

10:33but of course of course but he might not

10:35have any choice he because we said

10:37earlier he's a puppet of arch

10:39nationalists and from their perspective

10:42he's the right guy for the job because

10:43he does what they want maybe he leaves

10:47and takes asylum someplace who knows uh

10:51you know the fact of the matter is

10:54individual politicians should not

10:57condemn their nations to destruction

11:01period this is a basic point we cannot

11:05run the world for the sake of a few

11:09politicians the politicians have to work

11:12for their society if they're put in a

11:16position where they cannot do so they

11:19have to do the best they can to get out

11:21of the position that they happen to be

11:23in and so whether

11:27uh whether Zalinski has a margin of

11:30maneuver whether his life's a threat his

11:33political life is a threat whether a

11:36corruption machine which is enormous in

11:39Ukraine is really the issue at hand

11:42whether it's

11:43delusional I think we don't know what

11:47President Trump said in that

11:52colloqu but the idea a of what President

11:56Trump is saying right now which is that

11:59Ukraine should take a deal and that it

12:02should save lives and the fighting

12:05should stop president Trump is exactly

12:08right on this point the fact that the

12:11Europeans the hardliners are saying uh

12:15you're appeasing Putin this is

12:18completely wrong actually you have to

12:22look at the situation in its factual

12:26context which is that if you don't take

12:29an agreement Ukraine loses more and

12:33hundreds of thousands or millions more

12:35people die and if Ukraine does take an

12:39agreement it survives it has guarantees

12:43it may not get all it wants yes it wants

12:47to join NATO it cannot join NATO the

12:50idea was terrible from the beginning the

12:53United States was reckless in putting it

12:55on the table because it knew it was a

12:57Russian red line ukraine cannot get back

13:01all the territories that it has lost it

13:05can't it may want to but it can't and it

13:09may fight on to do it but what will

13:13happen is it will lose more and innocent

13:17people by the hundreds of thousands or

13:20millions will die and the risk of

13:24nuclear escalation will remain as long

13:27as this fighting continues so this is

13:31the reality that needs to be faced it's

13:35the job

13:36of leaders to face such situations if

13:40Zilinski doesn't like it or he fears for

13:42his life he should get the heck out of

13:44there because he's the wrong person for

13:48that job if that's the case that's the

13:51job of a leader all right before we

13:54leave St peter's Basilica I thought you

13:57might want to see this

14:04[Laughter]

14:10he fell sound asleep but Melania's

14:13Melania's glare

14:15uh awakened him you know I can only say

14:19honestly I have a little sympathy for

14:22jet lag so as a non-stop travel a

14:25non-stop traveler but in any event that

14:29was a sad day that day of bearing the

14:32greatest peace leader in the world um

14:35why why were there no Israeli officials

14:37there because he called because he

14:40called a priest in Gaza once a week to

14:42make sure the priest was still alive and

14:44still tending to his flock because

14:47Israel made itself a pariah state in the

14:51world that's why because if you are an

14:54extremist government that is

14:56slaughtering innocent people you become

14:58a pariah and when others point out that

15:01you're slaughtering innocent people and

15:04you resent that you make yourself

15:06completely isolated in the world and so

15:09the reason that Israel doesn't appear at

15:13diplomatic functions it is is that it

15:15has isolated itself from uh world

15:19opinion because of the way that it is

15:21behaving

15:23is Trump doing anything for peace in

15:25Gaza

15:27we don't know

15:28uh we really don't know what what he is

15:34one very important thing as we talked

15:36about last time is he is resisting the

15:40call for war with Iran of course the

15:43United States is in no position to have

15:46another war anywhere right now uh not

15:49from a military stockpile point of view

15:53not from a geopolitical point of view

15:56not from a fiscal point of view and so

15:58Trump is doing the right thing in

16:01resisting Netanyahu's call now he has to

16:05keep doing it because the pressures are

16:08relentless uh to

16:10uh side with the this extremist Israeli

16:14government what is he going to do in

16:18Gaza and uh on the issue of Israel and

16:21Palestine what he should do of course is

16:26to recognize a state of Palestine

16:29alongside the state of Israel like the

16:32vast majority of the world I estimate

16:3595% of the world

16:37population live in countries that are

16:39onside for the two-state solution and

16:42that includes all the Arab states and it

16:44includes the 57 Islamic majority states

16:48in the Organization of Islamic

16:50Cooperation what is Trump actually going

16:53to do like usual I'm not sure he knows

16:58and I'm not sure that we can know but he

17:01has an idea which is a wrong idea that

17:04needs to be cleared up and the idea is

17:08that he can establish peace between

17:13Saudi Arabia and Israel and maybe some

17:15other Arab countries and Israel without

17:19needing to face the question of the

17:22Palestinian statethood which is a

17:24difficult one because of the Israel

17:27lobby so he's hoping that uh offers of

17:32big armaments for Saudi Arabia or other

17:35kinds of deals for Saudi Arabia will

17:38entice Saudi Arabia to say yeah we will

17:43normalize with Israel and uh no

17:47Palestinian state necessary the Saudis

17:51however have been extremely clear on

17:54this point as has the Arab League as

17:58have countries all over the world that

18:00there can be no

18:03normalization unless there's a state of

18:06Palestine in this context otherwise the

18:09violence the killing the cruelty the

18:13illegality of what Israel is doing is

18:17far too high to enable any kind of

18:20normal

18:21relations whether Trump realizes this or

18:26not is a big question whether he hears

18:29this clearly when he goes to the Middle

18:32East very shortly in just a few days if

18:36he hears this clearly from the Arab

18:39leaders if he hears it clearly from

18:42Saudi Arabia if he hears it clearly from

18:45other leaders that he's going to visit

18:48he may reach the same correct conclusion

18:51that he reached in Ukraine which is that

18:54there's only one route to peace that is

18:56the two-state solution and that actually

19:00strangely enough is completely in

19:03America's hands israel has no veto over

19:08the two-state solution the reason is

19:10simple the membership of Palestine as a

19:14UN state is a matter that comes up in

19:18the UN Security Council where Israel has

19:21no veto it's only the United States that

19:25put a veto on the state of Palestine

19:28it's only the US that has blocked the

19:30path to peace if Donald Trump says "No

19:32I'm not going to block the path to peace

19:34anymore." The US changes its vote then

19:37the UN Security Council will give

19:40membership to Palestine as the 194th UN

19:44member state the UN General Assembly

19:47will vote probably 185 to maybe you know

19:52three against and the others not voting

19:54or something like that in other words

19:57the overwhelming expression of humanity

20:00will be for the two-state solution so

20:04this is really an issue in front of the

20:07United States in the next few weeks but

20:10is this a pipe dream given the ironclad

20:15grip that the donor class has on the

20:19American government the president of the

20:21United States just put a former IDF

20:24soldier who is a a citizen of Israel in

20:28the National Security Council in charge

20:31of the Iran Israel desk come on yes so

20:36here is the point just as with Ukraine

20:40which was based on a

20:4230-year project of the CIA and the rest

20:46of the deep state to surround Russia to

20:49weaken Russia maybe to divide Russia and

20:52so forth that 30-year effort failed and

20:57Donald Trump said "I don't want to hold

21:01a losing hand." Okay and so he changed

21:06quite

21:07fundamentally American policy towards

21:10Russia just in recent weeks we might

21:13have said that's a pipe dream america's

21:15anti-Russian look at the last five

21:18presidents and so forth but Donald Trump

21:21basically took a a a pragmatic view and

21:25said "I don't want to play a losing

21:28hand." Now when you turn to Israel and

21:32the Middle East Israel has pushed the

21:35United States to play not just one

21:38losing hand but losing hands

21:42repeatedly during the last almost 30

21:46years as well since Netanyahu became

21:49prime minister in the mid

21:511990s and for me it's the same point yes

21:56it seems impossible that the United

21:59States would change and maybe it would

22:01have been impossible given the power of

22:03the Israel lobby in the early 2000s when

22:07John Mirshimer and Steve Walt wrote

22:10their brilliant book about the Israel

22:12lobby and explained all of this very

22:14very clearly but now we're nearly 30

22:18years on netanyahu has led the United

22:20States into one disaster after another

22:24his whole Netanyahu's country is so

22:27profoundly divided right now he's

22:30breaking apart the country so Donald

22:33Trump actually has more of a free hand

22:36than we might imagine because the

22:39American people are a ghast at what

22:42Israel is doing they're not siding with

22:45Israel on this this is not public

22:48opinion that Donald Trump would have to

22:50oppose yes this is a lobby that Donald

22:54Trump would have to oppose but Donald

22:56Trump could explain to the American

22:58people just like he has explained the

23:02Ukraine situation that this is the

23:05losing path of Biden this is the losing

23:08path of previous presidents he's not

23:12going to play that losing path anymore

23:15it's It may sound like a long shot maybe

23:18it is a long shot it happens to be the

23:20right thing to do and I wouldn't rule it

23:22out my goodness I wish he would listen

23:25to you and we know he's listened to you

23:27in the past because he he posted

23:32uh some brilliant and forceful comments

23:34that you made uh about Prime Minister

23:37Netanyahu i want to bring you back to

23:39Ukraine before we uh we finish do you

23:42think that the Europeans

23:44uh are um misguided enough to try to to

23:50replace the United States if as Vance

23:54and Rubio have threatened the spigot is

23:57turned off in a week

24:00uh some of them definitely are i would

24:04say the British have no sense uh

24:08somebody needs to tell them that they

24:10lost their empire a while ago because

24:13they still behave as if they're the

24:15British Empire running the world though

24:17they have as Donald Trump would say no

24:20cards to play so Starmer is absurd in

24:25what he's saying there are a few others

24:27that are absolutely absurd but there are

24:30also some European leaders that not only

24:33know the truth but are speaking it

24:35absolutely clearly of course the uh the

24:39most uh clearheaded uh of all has been

24:43the Hungarian uh leader Victor Orban uh

24:48the Slovak leader Robert Fitzo

24:52absolutely clear uh and throughout

24:55Europe there are more and more political

24:58leaders that are making the obvious

25:01point this is failing this is not

25:04working we couldn't do it with the US we

25:06can't do it without the US this has to

25:10stop uh I actually uh in Rome spoke to a

25:15massive peace gathering called a couple

25:18of weeks ago there were about 80,000

25:22people uh in the Roman Forum stretching

25:25to the Colosseum it was quite a location

25:28to give some remarks which I did uh but

25:32the outpouring for peace in Italy which

25:35I've seen with my own eyes is

25:40profound prime Minister Maloney is on

25:43the good side of President Trump if

25:46President Trump says to Prime Minister

25:48Maloney "Look we we need to stick

25:51together to get this peace deal done,"

25:53there's a good chance she's gonna say

25:56that's right and when she says that's

25:59right then Europe has no basis for

26:02acting as Europe because Europe has to

26:06act in a consensus manner and when there

26:09is no consensus at all Europe is

26:13absolutely barred by their constitution

26:17essentially in other words by the let me

26:19say more specifically by the treaties

26:23that govern the European Union that they

26:26can't continue this i know you are

26:29multilingual but in what language did

26:31you address 80,000 Romans

26:34that's an interesting question i I I did

26:37address them in English and uh some

26:40people seem to be very very clearly

26:44hearing that but there was a voice over

26:46as well it was a very interesting day

26:48speaking to I wish that I could have

26:50been there i also wish that I could be

26:53there when this photo was taken there we

26:57are yeah oh my god my buddy Jeff and our

27:01buddy Ray McGovern yeah phenomenal

27:04that's great when and where was that

27:07taken recently just now in Moscow

27:09absolutely we happen to just be

27:12coincidentally here but Christopher

27:15brought us together you know enabled us

27:18to know that we're both here at the same

27:21time so I'm here at a different

27:22conference i'm here at a really

27:25wonderful uh conference called an open

27:28dialogue which has brought people from

27:30all over the world and it's very

27:32impressive that the Russian government

27:34saying let's talk about the future in a

27:37completely open way and it's a a very

27:40effective meeting well that's excellent

27:43professor Sax thank you very much i know

27:45it's uh very late there but but deeply

27:47as always wherever you are you're so

27:49faithful to this uh program and it is so

27:53appreciated by my team by me and by all

27:56of our uh viewers thank you very much

27:58for your time great to be with you see

28:00you next week yes you got it uh tomorrow

28:04Wednesday at 8 in the morning Professor

28:06Gilbert Doctoro at 12:30 in the

28:08afternoon Pepe Escobar at 1:00 Professor

28:12Glenn Diesen at 2:00 always worth

28:15waiting for Max Blumenthal at 3:00 our

28:19buddy Phil Geraldi a full day judge

28:22Npalitano for judging

28:27freedom heat heat

28:31[Music]

28:41[Music]