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fapangel · 3 years ago
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Ukraine 48 Hour Update + Morning After
Reminder that updates are posted to my google docs first; I throw them up on Tumblr when I can, usually late.
48 Hour Update
At time of writing it is 1:30AM in Kiev and according to all sources the major assault on Kiev has begun and has been ongoing for over an hour at this point, with Kharkiv still fighting and not encircled, Suma encircled and bypassed (but still very probably resisting and denying the city center to the enemy, if not the primary road West,) and Maritipol is being torn apart by intense close-quarters combat. My prior predictions have mostly held up, with the exception of my air defense analysis – still accurate in the broad strokes but I underestimated the Ukrainian legacy inventory’s serviceability and as continuing friendly air defense activity indicates, so have the Russians.
Southern Front Update – struggle to contain breakthrough over the Dneiper River
This screenshot comes from this excellent new livemap which complements the one I linked previously as instead of showing rough unit/division AORs it shows front-lines and force concentrations. Given this Janes’s analysis largely agrees with it I’ll prefer it, esp. as Janes is working off the same information for the most part, just with less crowd sourced help and more subscription fees.
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The analysis offered by the collator(s) of the map is accurate – having managed to solidify their bridgehead in Kherson and break through stubborn containment defense to the north of the city, the Russians are massing forces to pour over the second bridge in the area (which lies atop a dam) to exploit the breakthrough. This is bad, and we can expect to see the Ukrainians pull on assets that have been held back or in reserve till now – such as artillery, especially MLRS – to suppress and blast that chokepoint as hard as possible. Note this image shows a second blue line around Mykolaiv – not only does it benefit from another significant natural waterway barrier but crucially it controls the main highway north, which will make it an essential fallback position if a breakthrough is achieved out of Kherson proper.This crossing also has a rail bridge, making it even more crucial for Russian logistical sustainment past the Dneiper (rail can move much more freight in much worse weather than roads can.) Unlike Kharkiv to the north, there are no comparably huge cites in central Ukraine that control major road/rail exchanges to provide the defenders with the advantages of defensive urban fighting, so bottling Russian forces at this natural chokepoint is crucial and I expect the Ukranians will devote a tremendous amount of effort to doing so.
The Russians are also conducting heliborne insertions along the southern coast near Odessa but nothing indicates its in any serious strength; without follow-on forces those bridgeheads are little more than harassment.
As for the eastern drive, Melitopol is engulfed in incredibly violent close-quarters fighting and the Russians finally deployed their LST’s to land a force on the other side of the city. Whether to stop the defenders from escaping, stop Mauripol’s forces from reinforcing them or simply to try to create a double envelopment of the city’s defenders is unknown, but victory here will still require the Russians to take Mariupol to begin threatening the rear of the eastern Ukrainian forces on the Donbas border.
Northern Flank Update – the brutal city fight is now raging
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Simple and ugly. The northern Ukrainian defense has done an incredible job thwarting Russian designs – Kharkiv is not only well defended but not encircled either; anchoring the Ukrainian right flank (to the extent that they are even trying to form lines and fight battles of maneuver in this terrain; but given how successful they’ve been at that despite the on-paper odds, I can’t rule it out. Sumy (or Suma, depending) has been bypassed and possibly taken, but reports are going either way at this point. Note the map of Sumy:
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Note how the major highway skirts the northwest corner of city limits but doesn’t pass through the center. This means it’s possible for Sumy to be encircled and still partially contested but still leave the Russians in control of the roadway, allowing them to drive forces towards Kiev to participate in the ongoing assault that started earlier tonight. However, if Sumy IS still contested, this means there could be a persistent threat to this roadway. This is especially true because I have seen two absolutely insane dashcam videos of civilians (incredibly) driving along large thoroughfares/roads weaving past defending Ukrainian armor only to end up in the middle of a gun duel between Russian and Ukranian tanks, and one of these is confirmed to be from Kharkiv. This means there is a credible armored force in Kharkiv and if the Ukranians should choose to fall back a bit and use the urban terrain to combat that armor a thrust north-west to cut the H07 east-west highway out of Sumy is possible; esp. given that I had underestimated how many operational and useful tactical SHORAD systems the Ukranians likely started the war with (more on that in a future update.) Whether or not they could succeed with such a thrust given Russian fires/recon is dubious, and holding Sumy even moreso, but even a temporary interruption to the supply lines of the spearhead towards Kiev would be highly disruptive. If the Ukrainians judge the fight for Kiev desperate enough, they might do it.
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Speaking of Kiev, the situation on the northern front facing Belarus is a testament to the tenacity of the Ukrainian defense. Konotop was reported taken and lost by the Ukranian military itself last night but is only encircled; those roads are still denied the enemy.
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Chernihiv continues to be an incredible stumbling block to Russian advancements. The claim here about destroyed vehicles east of the city I believe highly likely just because of the disposition of the roads – much like with Sumy the roads skirting the outskirts of the city can be used – or at least risked - if the city is contested but not strongly held, but Chernihiv is strongly held and the movements I saw last night/early morning on Twitter et al indicated lots of maneuvering by Russian forces trying to work their way around these smaller towns/cities, so it’s credible that they tried an end-run and the defenders demonstrated their sight lines and firepower.
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As said before, Kiev proper has seen the first assault – or at least the bombardment preceding that assault - start in earnest around 6:30PM EST/1:30AM – and is now bracing for the ugly city fight I (and others) have predicted would come. Note the geography here – even if the thrust from the east reaches Kiev the Dneiper provides a barrier protecting half the city and a few choke points – or none, if the Ukranians blow them behind them. Predictions are running rampant that Russia, badly behind schedule and facing a rapidly worsening international situation, will resort to as much force as possible, such as very heavy bombardment of the city proper and use of TOS-1 thermobaric MLRS systems.
President Zelensky of Ukraine, from Kiev, said that tonight is the crucial night; the night when Russia will strain with all its might to break through the tenacious Ukranian defense in every area – the Kherson bridgehead, Melitipol and of course Kiev himself.
Given the way things are going, I believe he is right.
UPDATE@ 8:21PM EST/3:21AM Kiev
The Anatov Company’s official corporate twitter account (the same company that owned the airport NW of Kiev that Russian paratroopers tried to take on the first day) reports that Russian VDV is conducting an assault on the airfield at Vasylkiv; about 22 kilometers south-south-east of Kiev proper. Sightings of over 150 attack and transport helicopters being massed in a field in Belarus were made many hours ago and I’ve seen earlier reports that those choppers were in the air around Kiev, so the landings here are almost certainly that previously sighted force. This is one of the largest heliborne assaults ever conducted in history, but even with that massive commitment, deploying behind the city – even if they’re in 152mm artillery range of forward Russian troops – still leaves them vulnerable and without much heavy weapons to serve a long-term blocking role, so this is almost certainly a bridgehead to secure an LZ for follow-on paratroopers. This would track with Ukranian claims that at least one (and more claimed) IL-76 transport has been downed tonight – the Ukranians claim by one of their SU-27s (possible) but it could also be the work of surviving Russian air-defense. Also seeing claims attributed to the Ukrainian Army that the saboteur/infiltrator in false uniform activities seen yesterday are still in use on the Kiev front. This is happening amid very heavy fighting in Kiev proper. Fortunately the Ukrainians can read a map too and they had plenty of forewarning that a heavy helicopter assault was incoming; and given the small fleet of American ISTAR assets (including AWACS) monitoring the fighting from the Polish border, it’s likely they passed on warning to Ukraine while the choppers were in the air – if not from radar tracks, then from COMINT intercepts.
This is indeed the crucial hour. Expect the situation to change by the hour, if not the minute.
Day Three Update – Ukraine Survives The Night
Ukraine has survived their crucial hour. Melitipol has apparently fallen after heavy urban fighting, and the coastal roads around it seem barely defended; but in a stunning reversal the Ukranians have re-taken Kherson. An attempted drive straight from the bridges over the Dneiper towards Mykolaiv – with the assistance of an attempted VDV vertical envelopment (i.e. flanking by deploying troops behind the enemy with helicopters) was defeated soundly, and the Ukranian counterattack pushed deep into Kherson. The Russian Dneiper bridgehead is now in serious danger.
To the north, the attack on Kiev has been soundly rebuffed. The massive airborne operation clearly failed, with the follow-on paratrooper drop seeing two IL-76 transports shot down during ingress – i.e. with their paratroopers on-board. This has actually been confirmed by United States DoD, and given their persistent AWACS presence from Poland, they’re in a position to know. Russian airborne forces have taken heavy casualties in only the first 48 hours.
Even more shocking – there are now multiple sightings on social media video posts of Russian units stranded on highways due to fuel exhaustion. Before I could even get the chance to write about the logistical constraints in greater detail, they have already manifested in dramatic fashion. This CSIS paper from last month talks about the issues extensively;many of the predictions herein have already been borne out and I expect the rest to be in short order.
Before trying to cover the strategic situation further I want to try and cover some important background info as well. I’m going to write fast as I can and hope I can at least pace this entire mess. Upcoming updates:
1. Why the “Ghost of Kiev” is bullshit (but I believe it) + why the Ukrainian air force is still alive
2. Why Putin’s actions have shifted the bedrock under the West and can be expected to (and already have) galvanized serious aid to Ukraine and outright embargoes on Russia that can and will have rapid operational effects
3. Why Ukrainian air defense is still alive and will remain a threat
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45g1 · 4 years ago
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BHCU 500243(7) 45G1
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virtualdragonduck-blog · 8 years ago
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ebenalconstruct · 6 years ago
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Grenfell Inquiry verdict on key building issues delayed
The chairman of the Grenfell Inquiry has reserved detailed judgment until phase two of his investigation on the key issues around design, construction and use and testing of building materials on high rises.
During evidence for the initial hearings experts called for a series of immediate changes including a ban on all external walls that are not of Euro class A1 – the highest no combustible material standard.
But chairman Sir Martin Moore-Bick has rejected calls for an immediate moratorium on the use of materials of Euro class A2 pending the outcome of Phase 2 of his Inquiry.
Sir Martin also held back on recommendations relating to the widespread use of sprinklers, better materials testing regimes and reducing building height definitions for high-rises from 18m to 11m.
Detailed scrutiny of building processes, material selection and testing will open in January 2020 with evidence lasting 18 months.
Already 200,000 documents have been assembled for this next phase.
In his initial report published today, Sir Martin did call for faster replacement of ACM clad buildings and warned that decorative architectural crowns must be placed under scrutiny after early evidence showed the roof of the Grenfell Tower player a key part in spreading the fire around the building.
“It is clear that the use of combustible materials in the external wall of Grenfell Tower, principally in the form of the ACM rainscreen cladding, but also in the form of combustible insulation, was the reason why the fire spread so quickly to the whole of the building.
“It is essential that it be done as quickly as possible and concern has been voiced publicly, most recently by the House of Commons Communities and Local Government Select Committee, about the apparently slow rate of progress in carrying out the work.
“In the light of what has been learnt in Phase 1 about the behaviour of ACM panels with polyethylene cores when exposed to fire, I wish to add my voice to that of the committee in expressing the view that the programme of remedial work should be pursued as vigorously as possible.
“In view of the part played by the architectural crown in the spread of the fire at Grenfell Tower, particular attention must be paid to decorative features composed of combustible materials.”
Phase 2 inquiry
The principal focus of Phase 2 will be on the decisions that led to the installation of a highly combustible cladding system on a high-rise residential building and the wider background against which they were taken
Sir Martin said: “The evidence put before me in Phase 1 is already sufficient to demonstrate that a number of improvements can be made both in the way in which high-rise residential buildings are designed, constructed, approved and managed and in the way in which fire and rescue services respond to fires in such buildings.
“The findings made in this report provide a springboard for the next phase of the inquiry, which will consider among many important things the design of the cladding and choice of materials, the testing and certification of those materials and the role of central and local Government in promoting fire safety both by appropriate legislation and guidance and provision of effective fire and rescue services.”
  Other matters of particular concern
The decisions relating to the design of the refurbishment and the choice of materials.
The regime for testing and certifying the reaction to fire of materials intended for use in construction.
The design and choice of materials.
The performance of fire doors in the tower, in particular, whether they complied with relevant regulations, their maintenance and the reasons why some of the self-closing devices do not appear to have worked.
The organisation and management of the LFB, in particular in relation to the formulation of policy in the light of experience, the arrangements for training firefighters and control room staff, and the arrangements for sharing information about the particular problems associated with fighting fires in high-rise buildings.
The warnings of potential fire hazards given by the local community.
The authorities’ response to the disaster.
He added that it had now become clear that some aspects of the building which were at one time thought to require careful investigation did not play a significant role in the disaster and will not, therefore, require further examination.
Initial concerns about the width of the stairs, supply of gas, electricity and the history of electrical surges will not be included in the next phase
Key recommendations from phase one
Evacuation
– Government must develop national guidelines for carrying out partial or total evacuations of high-rise residential buildings, which include procedures for evacuating people who are unable to use the stairs in an emergency, or who may require assistance (eg disabled people, older people and young children)
– fire and rescue services must develop policies and training for partial and total evacuation of high-rise residential buildings
– all current and future high-rise residential buildings must be equipped with sounders or similar devices enabling fire services to send an evacuation signal to the whole or a selected part of the building
– all fire and rescue services must be equipped with smoke hoods for evacuation through smoke-filled exit routes
The owner and manager of every high-rise residential building must:
– draw up and regularly review evacuation plans, provide copies in electronic and paper form to their local fire service and place in an information box on the premises
– prepare personal emergency evacuation plans (PEEPs) for all residents whose ability to self-evacuate may be compromised and keep these in the information box
– the owner and manager of every residential building containing separate dwellings must provide fire safety and evacuation instructions in a form that the occupants of the building can reasonably be expected to understand
Emergency calls
– The LFB’s policies must be amended to draw a clearer distinction between callers seeking advice and callers who believe they are trapped and need rescuing
– all fire and rescue services must develop policies for handling a large number of fire survival guidance (FSG) calls simultaneously
– electronic systems must be developed to record FSG information in the control room and display it simultaneously in units at the fire
– policies must be developed for managing a transition from “stay put” to “get out”
– control room staff must receive training on handling such a change of advice and conveying it effectively to callers
Fire doors
– the owner and manager of every residential building containing separate dwellings must carry out an urgent inspection of all fire doors
– they must carry out checks no less than every three months to ensure that all fire doors are fitted with effective self-closing devices in working order
– all those who have responsibility for the condition of the entrance doors to individual flats in high-rise residential buildings with unsafe cladding must ensure that they comply with current standards
Floor numbers
– floor numbers must be clearly marked on each landing within the stairways and prominently in all lobbies so they are visible both in normal conditions, low lighting and smoke
Plans and inspections
Owners and managers of every high-rise residential building must:
– provide their local fire service with information about the design and materials of its external walls and inform them of any material changes
– provide their fire service with up-to-date paper and electronic floor plans, showing key fire safety systems
– regularly inspect lifts intended to be used by firefighters in an emergency, test the mechanism which allows firefighters to take control of them and report the results to the fire service every month
All fire and rescue services must:
– ensure that all officers of the rank of crew manager and above are trained and aware of the requirements expected during inspections of high-rise buildings
– be equipped to receive and store electronic plans and to make them available to incident commanders and control room managers
– ensure that all staff understand the risk of fire taking hold in the external walls and know how to recognise this
Communication:
– all officers who may be expected to act as incident commanders must receive training on communication with the control room
– all control room operators of assistant operations manager rank and above must receive training on communication with the incident commander
– a dedicated communication link must be provided between the senior officer in the control room and the incident commander
Command and control:
– the LFB must develop policies and training to ensure better control of deployments and the use of resources
– the LFB must develop policies and training to ensure that better information is obtained from crews returning from deployments and that it can be made available immediately to the incident commander
– the LFB must develop a communication system to enable direct communication between the control room and the incident commander and improve the means of communication between the incident commander and the bridgehead
– the LFB must investigate the use of modern communication techniques to provide a direct line of communication between the control room and the bridgehead
Equipment
– the LFB must urgently take steps to obtain equipment that enables firefighters wearing helmets and breathing apparatus to communicate with the bridgehead effectively
– the LFB must urgently take steps to ensure that the command support system is fully operative on all command units and that crews are trained in its use
Emergency services
– each emergency service must communicate the declaration of a major incident to each other as soon as possible
– clear lines of communication must be established as soon as possible between the control rooms of the individual emergency services
– steps must be taken to investigate the compatibility of the emergency services’ systems with a view to enabling them to read each others’ messages
– Emergency services and local authorities must investigate ways of improving the collection of information about survivors and making it available more rapidly to those wishing to make contact with them
from http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/10/30/grenfell-inquiry-verdict-on-key-building-issues-delayed/
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newstfionline · 7 years ago
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Chinese Expansion Has Germany on the Defensive
By Simon Hage, Martin Hesse, Alexander Jung, Peter Müller, Gerald Traufetter and Bernhard Zand, Der Spiegel, May 24, 2018
China has already taken a significant step into Germany. In the Rheinhausen district of Duisburg, trains are now rolling across the site where steelworkers once fought unsuccessfully to save their mill in 1987 while shipyard cranes stack up containers on the banks of the Rhine River. This is the precise point where the New Silk Road, China’s massive infrastructure project, comes to an end.
The site in Duisburg is known as Logport I and it is one of the largest container ports in Europe. Twenty-five trains arrive each week at Terminal DIT, also known as the China Terminal, after having traveled the more than 10,000 kilometers from Chongqing across Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland.
Four years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the inland port. The engine of a train that arrived from China that day was decorated with red paper dragons for the occasion and Erich Staake, CEO of the Duisburg port, was also on hand.
Staake, who, like the Chinese president, was born in 1953, sees the rail connection as a boon both for the port and for the entire region, which badly needs it. “We want to grow,” he says. “China and the New Silk Road offer us great potential.” One way of seeing it is that the trade route brings China and Germany that much closer together.
There is, though, another way of seeing it: Namely that the multibillion-dollar project provides the Chinese with a kind of bridgehead in Europe from which they are pushing their expansion across the Continent and broadening their economic influence.
So which is it? An opportunity or a threat?
It isn’t easy to find an answer to that question--and that itself is telling. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to China this week will have a different flavor to it than her previous 10 visits to the country. The relationship between the two countries has changed in the interim and is no longer as balanced as it once was.
Until recently, the relationship had seemed almost symbiotic and the roles were clear: Germany sold high-end machinery and vehicles in China, including more than 5 million automobiles in 2017 alone. In return, China exported furniture, refrigerators and electronic devices to Germany at unbeatably low prices. But now, China has reached adulthood much more quickly than expected.
Not all that long ago, China was a developing economy, seen by industrialized countries in the West as a gigantic market where they could sell their goods. Then, it became the world’s factory, a place with inexhaustible resources. Now, however, it has matured into a powerful competitor capable of leaving Germany in its dust. Chinese companies are developing intelligent machinery and production facilities; they are building cars, many of them with electric motors; and they’re making inroads into sectors that used to be Germany’s private domain. China has figured out how to copy Germany’s successful model and is now becoming a danger to the original.
Mikko Huotari was one of the first to identify this development several years ago. Huotari is a scholar at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (merics), a think tank in Berlin. The old logic which held that “China needs us” is no longer true. In fact, he says, the situation has flipped: Germany is increasingly reliant on China as the country increasingly becomes a driver of global innovation. “The entire mechanics of the system have changed.”
Just how confident, or perhaps even aggressive, the Chinese have become can be seen when they buy companies in Germany. They used to target second-tier firms, but in recent years, the focus has increasingly shifted to key industrial players. “Germany is home to around 1,000 mid-sized companies that are global leaders in their sectors. The Chinese want access to them,” says Kai Lucks, head of the Federal Association of Mergers & Acquisitions in Germany.
Recently, Chinese buyers have even shown an appetite for companies listed on the DAX, Germany’s blue-chip stock index. In February, billionaire Li Shufu quietly acquired a 10 percent stake in Daimler. Dieter Zetsche, the company’s chairman of the board, believes that an additional large Chinese investor may also acquire a stake in the company: the state-owned firm BAIC, Daimler’s Chinese partner. Politicians and executives are beginning to wonder what large company might be targeted by Chinese investors next.
Along with those investments, uncertainty has been growing. And it’s not just coming from the Far East. Reliant as it is on exports, the German economy is sensitive to shifting trends in global trade and Merkel’s visit to China this week is coming right in the middle of a period of transition. China is growing stronger, America has become unreliable and Germany has to figure out what its new role will look like.
The economy has become used to seemingly eternal growth in the Far East, with exports to the region almost tripling in the last 10 years. But what will happen once China begins building high-tech machines of its own or exporting its own electric vehicles? That’s the point when German industry will quickly become painfully aware just how dependent it has become on China.
At the same time, though, German companies are confounded by the erratic course currently being charted by the U.S. president in Washington. If Donald Trump chooses to introduce punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on June 1 and the EU retaliates, Germany will become even further alienated from America, which is still its top export market. This development likewise poses a significant risk to the domestic economy.
And everything is overshadowed by the potential of a trade war between the Western superpower and the Eastern superpower. The Trump administration accuses China of unfair trade practices and massive theft of intellectual property. As a consequence, he has threatened to introduce punitive tariffs worth $150 billion and China has vowed to respond in kind should he do so.
If both countries follow through, Germany would find itself in a hopeless--and extremely dangerous--position directly between the front lines. If Germany makes concessions to one side, the other side will be displeased. The country must find a solution to this dilemma, but it isn’t clear what that might look like.
China has a plan. Few in Germany took much notice when Beijing announced it in the form of a document called “Made in China 2025.” Written in the rather unwieldy terminology of communism, it describes how China intends to become an economic superpower. It was essentially the equivalent of throwing down the gauntlet to the West.
The plan calls for transforming China into a “major manufacturing power” by 2025, reaching an “intermediate level among world manufacturing powers” by 2035 and becoming “the leader among the world’s manufacturing powers” by 2049, the centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic. The master plan does not allow for potential economic crises. “Advanced technology is the sharp weapon of the modern state,” President Xi said in a 2013 speech that offers a powerful expression of the country’s new industrial strategy. “Our technology still generally lags (behind) that of developed countries, and we must adopt an asymmetrical strategy of catching up and overtaking.”
What he means is that he wants to make more rapid progress than others in 10 key fields: information technology, automation and robotics, aerospace and aeronautics, oceanographic engineering and high-tech shipping, high-speed rail, electric vehicles, electric power equipment, agricultural machinery, new materials, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.
In contrast to previous long-term plans, the 2025 strategy seeks a global reach. Its goal is that of leaving behind Western competitors and transforming domestic companies into international champions. It is a blueprint for restructuring the country’s economy, from the factories to the laboratories, from industrial production to the service sector, from state-owned factories to privately owned businesses.
Other countries have pursued similar strategies in the past, including South Korea, Japan and, perhaps most significantly, Germany, whose industrial history Chinese experts studied closely before presenting China’s own plan. “The catch phrase ‘Industry 4.0’ hit China like a bomb,” says Changfeng Tu, who is a partner at the law firm Hengeler Mueller. It provided the blueprint for “Made in China 2025.”
The difference is that China is governed by an authoritarian system and the country is vast in size. If the Chinese leadership wants to, it can revamp entire economic sectors, as it did previously in the steel and solar industries. And now, it is doing the same in the automobile industry, Germany’s preeminent economic sector.
Like Germany since the Industrial Revolution, Shenzhen is a place that combines technical know-how with industrial application--a high-tech laboratory that still has the sheen of novelty. “The possibilities that Shenzhen offers are almost limitless,” says German engineer Jens Höfflin.
Wearing shorts and flipflops, Höfflin can be found at the startup community HAX. Together with his American partner, the 36-year-old developed a mobile magnetic resonance tomography device in Boston that will help heart and kidney patients avoid constant hospital visits. At HAX in Shenzhen, they have received funding to do an initial production run. Höfflin says it is easy to find whatever you might need in Shenzhen, whether it be circuit boards or die casting components. “Within a radius of just a few kilometers, you can find the right factory for production,” he says.
At the next desk, a startup founder from Australia is examining a prototype of a device that enables the monitoring of large herds of sheep. It is already the third iteration of his product, he says, adding that he returns to Shenzhen each time he makes an upgrade.
It used to be that Shenzhen’s low prices were the city’s main selling point, Höfflin says. “Now, though, it is its huge selection of suppliers.” The Chinese target young German entrepreneurs to bring to Shenzhen, hoping to profit from their know-how. But they also head to Germany themselves.
Last year in Munich, for example, Huawei opened its second research and development center. Around 300 experts are currently working on G-5 technology at the site, the next generation in mobile telephony. They are developing specialized antennas and semiconductors for smartphones. “Huawei sees Europe as a second domestic market and Germany is the heavyweight,” says Torsten Küpper, an executive at the German branch of Huawei.
No other company in Europe applied for more patents last year--not even Bosch or Siemens. When it comes to information and communication technology, Küpper believes that Huawei is the global leader. Now, though, the company is focusing its attentions on connecting industry in addition to connecting people, he says, which is why it has come to the Munich region, which is home to many mechanical engineering and automobile supply companies.
As a network supplier for German industry, Huawei finds itself privy to sensitive company data and has deep access to the technological nervous systems of its clients. Many have reservations about allowing a Chinese company such access and part of Küpper’s job is to dispel those fears. “Of course, we respect patent and data protection laws, just as we ourselves wish to be respected,” the executive says. He adds that Huawei resembles a large cooperative and that the company belongs to its employees.
Still, such an ownership structure does not provide protection against regime access from Beijing. Companies like Huawei are closely watched in the West. The Trump administration cut off ZTE, a Huawei competitor, from U.S. suppliers from one day to the next because it violated sanctions on North Korea. A few days ago, Trump struck a more moderate tone when it came to the company’s future, but whether it ultimately survives is dependent completely on the moods of a moody president.
Huawei isn’t nearly as exposed in America as ZTE, but Europe too could ultimately reach the conclusion that mobile telephone networks are of systemic importance. Mistrust is growing, particularly as it becomes increasingly clear how strategically China is expanding its economic influence into Europe. And it is doing so by way of the New Silk Road.
Chinese President Xi presented the idea for a new world order shortly after entering office in 2013. The Silk Roads Initiative is a network of trade and energy corridors, pipelines, railway lines and shipping lanes that are to span the entire Eurasian region by the middle of the century--and all of them begin in China.
Xi presented the plan as one for a “common future for humanity” aimed at making “globalization more open, inclusive and balanced.” But in practice, 89 percent of all infrastructure contracts are given to Chinese construction companies. And the main purpose of these projects is to secure trade corridors that can be used by China to import raw materials and to export its goods.
Leading European politicians fear it may be too late to curb China’s growing influence. With the Silk Road Initiative and the 16+1 format, China is already in the process of driving a wedge through Europe, they argue. The 16+1 format includes the 16 Central and Eastern European countries plus China. Beijing initiated the format six years ago as a counterbalance against Russia and the EU. It includes countries like Serbia and Macedonia, but also EU member states such as the Czech Republic and Hungary.
At the last 16+1 meeting in Budapest, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang held court as European leaders voiced their desire for Chinese investment. According to a meeting participant, one European head of government after the other was asked to address Li, each naming a project where Chinese money would be most welcome.
The Chinese, in other words, don’t have to fight for influence--they are essentially courted by European politicians. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has even threatened more or less openly that his country might turn to China if the EU doesn’t cough up enough money or becomes too critical of his leadership.
EU diplomats have pointed out that Germany is not exactly blameless when it comes to the divide that is now cutting through Europe. They say that one reason Eastern European member states may be going their own way is because Germany in the past has been so eager to ensure the best possible access to China for itself. Now, Berlin must learn to learn to deal with the fact that China has become a direct competitor.
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shopcode · 7 years ago
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‘Everything Store’ Emerges As The Third Force In Digital Advertising
By Guy Phillipson It’s a little-known fact, but relentless.com was one of the original company names Jeff Bezos was very keen on, before he finally settled on Amazon – which is now far more famous than the world’s longest river. Of course, he made the right decision, but his original name choice says a lot about Bezos’ single-minded mission to create what he called ‘an everything store’.
Like so many tech startups, the world’s largest bookstore started in a garage back in 1994, run by Mr and Mrs Bezos, and by the time their servers were sucking up so much power that even running a hair dryer in the house blew a fuse, they moved to a modest office in Seattle. [...]
In many respects, Bezos has realised his dream of running the world’s ‘everything store’, and it’s set to get bigger, wider and stronger. The majority of online shoppers (56%) now start their shopping journey on Amazon, supplanting Google as the number one product search engine. Here’s an even more indicative stat: 52% of American households now use Amazon Prime (while only 49% have a landline phone!), a major reason why Amazon commanded an unassailable 44% of all US e-commerce in 2017, according to eMarketer. [...]
Competing on search, video, display and voice
Undoubtedly, the massive search market is Amazon’s main bridgehead, through Amazon Media Services (AMS). It is uniquely capable of matching real-time advertising to e-commerce, with the benefit of knowing what people are actually buying. Trading on keywords, ads can appear at the top of the listing, on selected pages, and even next to a competitor’s product, making the PPC option very attractive. At iCrossing we’re seeing some very impressive numbers for our clients, and where ROI is higher for brands selling direct on Amazon, we’re prioritising the channel.
Also playing in the brand space is Amazon Media Group (AMG) offering video formats, sponsorship opportunities and native display across the likes of Prime video and Kindle, as well as their video game streaming network, Twitch, which has an impressive 100m users worldwide.
Alexa – Amazon’s little helper to bypass brands?
But perhaps the most interesting and strategic play for Amazon will be though Alexa. We’d already had some match practice talking to Google and Siri on our smartphones when Amazon simplified the whole experience with the launch of Echo, which now dominates the market and features the polite and ever-so-helpful Alexa.
While our early requests involve asking Alexa to play music, set a timer or answer trivia questions, make no mistake, she’s a key figure in Bezos’ end game. According to Experian, 32% of Prime Echo users in 2017 bought at least one thing with Alexa’s help, and as it becomes easier and cheaper, Echo shopping will become habitual – possibly to the detriment of brands. The formidable business prophet Scott Galloway pointed out that the number of voice requests that contain a brand prefix is declining, and particularly in the FMCG sector, Alexa could wipe away all the investment brands make in packaging, shelf space, promotion, and vital relationships with retailers. So, when you simply want some AAA batteries, guess which brand Alexa might suggest? [...]
(Source: TheDrum)  02.2018
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