#Newcomb’s Problem

[caseyjones-junior]

Gavilán, huh?

Not my usual style I was just dicking around and felt really inspired by @bonvivant-divisionbell ‘s fic Newcomb’s Problem.

Also an angsty soft mini playlist. Cuz seriously. Divisionbell’s got me in a chokehold with this story

[fruityyamenrunner]

deal or no deal

what gameshow selects for the stupidest winners?

[billthedrake]

LINEAGE (PART SIX)

We hit a rough patch. I guess it happens in every marriage. Braden and I made sure not to fight in front of the boys, but we were arguing more. Some of the usual stuff, about me being a workaholic and not doing enough parenting duties for our youngest, Evan and Keith. It was like me and my eldest son's earlier dynamic was coming back in a different way.

But behind it all was Brade still wasn't pregnant. He and I had decided to have a fourth son, and it just wasn't taking. We'd come back from our belated honeymoon fucking like bunnies, but after a year, the sexual intensity had faded. We still had sex once a week, but maybe that wasn't enough.

I'd talked to the younger Dr. Fiedler about it, and Todd said that fertility starts to decline in a man's mid-30s. He said he could write a script for some fertility pills, if Braden and I wanted to try them. But I figured I'd hold off on that. I didn't want Braden to feel I was putting pressure on him to conceive. For all we knew, my swimmers weren't doing the job.

Todd Fiedler was the one man who I could unload my problems to and I knew he'd keep them private. I suspect one part of the marital issues was that Braden didn't have a close confidante when it came to incest marriage. And my husband was starting to resent the Saturday tee times with my golf buddy.

Still, I wasn't going to give them up. Junior had taken to golfing, in a big way, and at 14 was pretty damn good. It helped that the Fiedlers had a son Junior's age, Sam, so we became a regular foursome.

"He's gonna beat you today, Bill," Todd said with a grin as he slid his club into the bag. The boys were walking ahead of us.

"Seems that way," I said. "Guess my game is off."

Todd patted my shoulder. He could be flirty with me, in an understated way though Brade and I never fooled around with the Fiedlers like with did with the Connors men. "Maybe. But your son's a natural." He got a playful look in his eye. "Took Adam a lot longer to beat me." Adam is the oldest Fiedler son, just then starting college. "But I'll tell ya, the sex was fuckin incredible that day."

Todd's eyes fixed on me as he dropped that bombshell.

"You mean...?" I asked.

He nodded. "I figure I can tell you and Braden. But yeah, that's developed and it's pretty incredible."

I was trying my best not to get hard in my golf shorts, but it was probably going to be a losing battle. "Jesus, Todd... we're gonna have to talk more about this."

He smiled. "You got it. Dad and I still have to pinch ourselves that it's happening." I sort of resented we didn't have the time or full privacy for him to share the full story.

We walked along. "I've been meaning to bring this up, Bill... but a friend of mine is doing a study of incest families... it's all confidential... I told him I'd see if you were interested in being part of it, too."

"What kind of study?" I asked. From anyone else the request would have seemed far-fetched but I trusted the Fiedlers.

"Psychology, mostly interviews with me, Dad, and our sons. I'll just say Mark is, um, sympathetic to our kind of families."

I chuckled. "Is that right? It's funny how I spent years thinking Brade and I were the only ones, and gradually we find more sympathetic family men."

"Besides the Connors?" Todd asked.

I had never told him about the Newcombs, the father and son we'd met in the Caribbean. I'd half forgotten about them myself. Only..

"Braden and I met these guys on our honeymoon. We drew them out of their shell a bit.""

"Yeah?" Todd's eyes gleamed. He knew Braden and I were open to playing with the Connors and suspected that was the case here.

I didn't spell it out though. "They kind of freaked out on us, but I just got a LinkedIn message from the dad."

Todd was listening with rapt attention.

"It was all coded, but basically he was thanking me," I continued.

"Seems like we both have some stuff to talk about," Fiedler said. We were now catching up to the where the boys were already setting up their tees on the next hole.

Sam hit a good shot, but Junior's was the incredible drive right down the fairway. Yep, my son was gonna beat me that day, for sure.

***

The next couple of weeks were busy. That's why the news came out of the blue for me.

"Dad... can you come in here?" I heard from the master bathroom one morning. It was a weekend, and I was putting away folded laundry.

"What is is, buddy?" I asked, stepping into the bathroom. Braden was still in his pyjama pants and a worn T-shirt that hugged his ex-Marine muscle body. If we hadn't had sex first thing that morning, I would have been initiating something right then.

He had a nervous look. "Shut the door... " he said softly. "I just have this feeling, call it a daddy's intuition."

I'd barely shut it, when my son pulled down the flannel pants and hauled out his soft dong. He grabbed the stick of the pregnancy test and let his piss stream hit it for a few seconds.

"You mean...?" I asked excitedly.

Braden looked at me with nervous hopefulness. I realized then how much he really wanted this. Wanted to be impregnated with our fourth.

I was getting hard just waiting for the result, and I could see Brade chub up. I stepped up close and placed my hand on his shoulder as we both watched in anticipation. Then, clear as day, a plus appeared on the stick.

"God, Dad..." Braden said. He was 38 years old now, but he had almost the innocent enthusiasm he showed when he was 18.

We kissed. I'd missed this romantic connection, but it was like riding a bike. Braden was the best kisser I'd ever known, and his tongue dancing against my own, sucking me into his mouth before nudging back, was driving me wild.

"I need you inside me, Dad," he hissed. Already he was pushing those pyjama pants down.

"The boys..." I warned. We had to be restrained with even a quickie during these weekends.

"The door's shut," Brade hissed. He was turning away and leaning over the bathroom vanity slightly. Ready to be taken.

The lube was in the bedroom, but I opened the medicine cabinet and found the petroleum jelly, which we'd used a couple of times before. I smeared my breeder cock and got into position.

"Ooff!" Braden grunted at the sudden penetration. Then, "fuck me, Dad." He braced his hands on the sink ledge. "Fuck your son."

"My oldest son," I hissed. While Braden and I had kept up at least some regular sex life, it had been WAY too long since we'd indulged the verbal.

"Oldest of four... now five... oh fuck!"

I was thrusting now, and Braden was opening up for me. Our eyes locked on the mirror. At the vision of me mounting and fucking his newly pregnant muscle body.

"I love fucking breeding you, Brade... knocking you up."

"My hot fucking dad. Fucking stud patriarch."

God, Braden was gonna get me off quick. That and the pregnancy news.

"My hot fucking pregnant son." My hips were piledriving harder. We might not be able to get this hard later in Braden's pregnancy so I felt an urgency to take him like this while I could.

"Gonna keep barefoot and pregnant, Dad?"

Fuck, I was cumming, my hips locking and my dick spurting a heavy load inside Braden. His eyes watched my O face in the mirror as he stroked off to a heavy cum himself.

I gave my son a playful pat to his muscle ass when I withdrew and we kissed softly once more. "If you wanna clean up, Son, I'll go check on the boys."

"Yeah. Thanks, Dad."

"For what?" I laughed.

He laughed back. "For being my father. For giving me another kid. For that fuck. I don't know."

We kissed again then Brade started the shower.

I made myself presentable and went to the family room. There was inevitably the emotional whiplash of going from sex and romance time with Braden back to parenting mode. I had an intuition and sure enough Evan and Keith were fighting over the iPad.

"Dad! Keith is hogging it" The two brothers were just a year and a half apart in age. That meant they could get along famously one minute and be at each other's throat the next.

I had to play stern dad. "I'll take away both your screen time, fellas. Don't think I won't."

Junior's attention was on his phone but even in my peripheral vision I saw him smirk.

***

We did that study. Or at least we started. Fiedler's psychologist friend Mark said it was a long term study, though we could drop out any time. He assured us he'd only ask the boys general questions, whereas Brade and I would each be asked more probing questions.

It felt freeing to talk about my sex life and what incest meant to me in the privacy of his office. I had to hide my boner, but then realized it probably didn't matter.

"Do you feel normal?" the man finally asked me.

I had to think. "I know I'm not the norm," I said. "But deep down, what I have with Brade, our family, feels normal to me."

"What's been the hardest part for you?"

I didn't have to think, I knew right away. "The secrecy. Pretending I'm a coparent rather than Braden's husband."

The shrink wrote in his pad, then set it down. "That should be enough, Bill. I really appreciate you taking the time and opening up about your family."

It was weird being studied this way, but I liked the doctor's nonjudgmental approach. Reading between the lines of what Todd Fiedler told me, I wondered if Mark had an incest history of his own, or if it was something that turned him on. I almost asked.

Braden seemed in a quiet mood when I got home. But we enjoyed family time, watching a movie until it was time for Evan and Keith to go to bed. I'd had to lay down the law about a reasonable bedtime, and I could see Braden amused as I dealt with their pleading to stay up late this time.

But finally they went to brush their teeth and get ready for bed. I checked on them and when I came back, Braden was talking to Junior about starting up high school in a couple of weeks. It was the most animated I'd seen our eldest be in a while.

"I just know homework will get harder," he said.

"You're a good student, Junior," Braden said.

Our son smiled at the compliment. I didn't even have to get on his case, Junior was diligent when it came to school. "I just worry about balancing school and golf, you know?"

Already Junior was anticipating joining the golf team.

"You'll do fine," I said. "It's the dating life which might suffer," I teased.

Junior blushed but tried to be part of the grown-up conversation.

"I guess that's another good thing about high school, huh?" he said.

"It was for your dads," Braden said, leaning into my arm as we sat on the couch. I could tell he was feeling far more relaxed talking about these things with Junior.

Our son took that in and with hesitation asked. "Dad.... Daddy... how did you first start dating?"

Braden looked at me in a "should we tell him?" way.

I figured our son was old enough. I wouldn't give all the details, but I could start.

"Well, your Daddy was attracted to me, and deep down I was attracted to him, but I had to be a father first, you know. But when he was a senior, we let it happen. And pretty quickly, we knew it was serious."

"That's cool," Junior said. "I hope I find someone special like you two have."

"You will," Braden said.

Junior paused. "Dads... I haven't told you, but I'm pretty sure I'm gay."

"Pretty sure?" Braden asked.

Junior chuckled. "Well, completely sure."

I don't know why the news surprised me, but it did. "I'm proud of you, buddy... for realizing who you are. It took me a long time."

"Gosh," Junior said. Then thoughtfully, he added. "You know, I guess I worry what people with think. Having two dads, and if you made me gay."

Braden chimed in. "If your Dad and I cared what people think we wouldn't be happy."

That made Junior smile. He'd been lectured on the need of secrecy and the taboo about incest since he was young. "I guess not."

We made some more talk, mostly general stuff about dating, then Brade and I said it was time for bed.

As my husband and I got ready and stripped down, the conversation weighed heavily on us. "He's gonna be trouble," Braden said.

"What do you mean?"

"I don't know," my son replied. "He's a good looking kid... smart, maybe too smart." He snuggled up to me. "I wouldn't be surprised he if ends up a teen father like you."

Maybe it was the warm feel of Braden next to me, but I won't lie, my cock went rigid. Rock hard against my son's softly furred abs. That got a chuckle out of Braden.

"You like that idea," he said.

"Come on, Brade," I objected. It was an idle fantasy, not reality.

Braden didn't press me on, it though. Nor were we amping up to sex quickly. Instead my son kissed me softly. He was in a romancing mood, and I did my best to respond.

"Sorry if I was moody earlier," he said. "It was that interview with Mark."

My protective streak kicked in. "We don't have to participate, Brade," I said.

He nodded. "It's fine... only... did he make the moves on you?"

"No. Why?" Did Mark hit on Brade?

"He and I talked. The dude has SO many daddy issues. Jerks off to pictures of his dad each day. Only goes for guys who are older as a substitute."

"We didn't get personal, not like that," I said. I reflected. "Maybe it's common."

"I'm sure it is," Braden said, relieved. "I'm lucky as hell I have my actual father."

We kissed more intensely then Braden pushed me on my back. "Lie there, Dad," he said and reached over for the lube. "It's been a while since I've ridden that dad cock."

I placed my hands behind my head and grinned. "Pregnancy hormones kicking in?" We'd had sex that morning and usually didn't find time for twice in a day.

Braden smiled. "In a big way, Dad. Maybe that's why I got turned on hearing the doc talk about his father."

"Incest is really hot, isn't it?"

Braden slicked up my hardon and straddled me. "God yes." He settled back into place. I thought back to those homecoming fucks when Brade was in the Marines, coming back on leave, or home from deployment. And after our conversation with Junior, I realized how much Brade and I had almost forgotten about that phase of feeling each other out, trying to decide how much was physical transgression between father and son and how much was true love.

My dick penetrated him. Brade's hands were on my chest, feeling me up as he lowered down. "I love your cock, Dad. So much."

"I love your ass, buddy. Can't ever get enough."

"I wish more people could see us, Dad. See how a father and son mate." He settled further down. Lost in his sexual fantasy but also very much in the moment.

"Like Doug and Eric Newcomb?"

His eyes went wide. "You hear from those guys again?" I'd told Braden about

"From Doug, yeah. He and his boy want to visit sometime."

"God, I want you to fuck me in front of them... with my big pregnant gut..." OK, Brade wasn't kidding about the pregnancy hormones. His voice was getting louder.

I held onto his hips and pumped gently as we got deeper into the sex talk. But this was mostly Brade's fuck, his hips driving it like he wanted. He fucked himself on my dick to a hands-free cum. The very sight pushed me over the edge. The post-fuck kiss was amazing and we took our time to uncouple.

***

The next morning Junior had a knowing look on his face when I came into the kitchen to pour my coffee. We had one of those coffee makers with an automatic time. It took me a second to realize the pot was a little short.

"You drinking coffee?" I asked Junior.

"That's OK, Dad, right?" he asked, a combination of innocence and challenging me. Junior was a good kid but Braden was on to something. He was going to be a challenging teen to raise in his own way.

"Yeah, buddy, it's OK," I said. Pouring my own cup.

"Dad..." Junior said.

"Yeah?"

He stood up from the counter and dropped his voice to a whisper. "No disrespect. But you and Daddy might want to be quieter. I could hear you guys..."

I gulped, while trying not to act like things were out of the normal. Brade and I kept our sex life private, but we never wanted our boys to see anything unhealthy about our relationship. "Sorry, kiddo," I said. Trying to give a conspiratorial smile. "Though I guess you have something to tell that shrink next time."

At least that made Junior laugh. "Don't worry, Dad, I can keep a secret." He passed me and put his mug in the dishwasher. And he walked out to get ready for school.

***

I almost didn't make Braden's obstetrician appointment, and I was five minutes late. Everything seemed routine, until after a few tests when Doc Kennedy called us into his office.

"Braden... Bill... it turns out Braden's carrying twins."

I looked over at my son, who was stunned by the news. I, meanwhile, couldn't hide the big smile. Doc could tell and he chuckled at watching both of us.

"It'll make for a more physically exhausting pregnancy, Braden, but many men bear twins each year and have healthy young babies. Particularly since you're in your 30s still. We'll set up extra appointments to check in, and I'll give you some websites to read."

It was sinking in. "Wow, twins... " The smile was forming on Braden's face as he looked at me.

"Not the news you expected," Dr. Kennedy said with a chuckle.

"No, sir," Brade said.

The doctor explained, "It often happens when men take fertility pills."

"No fertility pills, Doctor," I said. "Just the old fashioned way."

He shrugged. "Like I say, it happens."

Braden and I couldn't wait to get home. I was supposed to go back to the office for a meeting, but I called out instead. My son and I had about forty minutes before we had to go pick up Evan and Keith from school.

"Goddamn, Dad," Braden said, excitement building in his voice as we stepped into the house. "We went right for number five, didn't stop at four sons."

"I'll be my fifth and sixth," I reminded Brade. I adjusted the hardon in my suit trousers.

"Guess I wasn't kidding about the barefoot and pregnant thing."

Brade and I kissed, hard. Our bodies connecting through our clothes, then the impatience as we stripped each other.

"Brade... Sport... I want you to go off the pills."

He didn't get it. "I'm already pregnant dad. Knocked up with twins."

I tugged his arm to guide him back to the bedroom. "I mean, once they're born. I want us to fuck unprotected from here on out... let the chips fall where they may."

"Jesus, Dad!" Brade really liked that idea.

"Your natural womb giving us a son whenever it happens."

"Yes, sir," Brade growled.

I wish I could say we consummated the news with a nice long romantic mating, but it was maybe three hot minutes of missionary sex. Brade's way. Legs wrapped around my waist, us kissing deep. Envisioning the two sons that were gonna grow inside Braden. And the future ones we gonna make.

It was hands-free for Braden, which seemed to happen more and more during his pregnancy, and I was three strokes behind, loading up my son-husband deep.

"I can't believe I'm getting two more grandkids," I said as I lay in the afterglow, stroking Braden's chest. Even those pecs would get full again, and I'd be able to milk feed from my son's bosom.

"Gonna need a bigger SUV, Dad. And we only have one car seat."

I mussed Braden's hair. "I thought I was supposed to be the practical one, Sport."

Braden laughed. "I guess you're rubbing off on me, old man." He leaned up and checked his watch. "Time for pick up duty."

"I got this, Brade," I said, sliding out of bed. I dug into my drawers and found clean underwear and a casual T shirt. "Why don't we go out as a family tonight, to celebrate? We can tell the boys the great news."

[transgenderer]

has yud (or other people who apply TDT to reality) ever laid out their argument for why any real life situation resembles newcomb-type problems well enough for it to be applicable? this has never seemed clear to me. like, unless you're *literally reasoning* about your *literal replica* it doesnt really come into play. the only time it applies in reality is like...reggie's thing about doing the dishes. if you want to be the sort of person who did the dishes yesterday you have to do them today. etc

[murderofsomeone]

Can I get a penny for your thoughts on different systems of time travel

okayyy yaaayy

I'm actually just gonna cover a bunch of topics that might help to consider when writing time travel into your story

OK SO FIRST OF ALL you need to figure out how time travel affects your time stream. this is really important to figure out right away so it doesn't fuck you over later on, do you want:

time travel to create an alternative universe from altered choices

time travel to be reversible

time travel to be inevitable and irreversible

one thing to consider no matter what choice you do is that a time paradox is not only inevitable, but also speaks volume for how time travel works to begin with in your story/world.

now I'm not particularly a fan of the "time falling apart" trope as it requires reality to be that fragile to begin with and for physical matter to be negatively impacted by other timelines just from... interacting with itself. it's not exactly the most logic based thing for "touching hands with your past self and causing reality to become unstable" to happen, as individual atoms do not have the capacity to think "wow this body is exactly like mine" and collapse upon itself. like that's just stupid, so I'm disregarding that trope right the fuck now.

now digging into time paradoxes, I'll give a quick run down on what they are and what it means to implement them.

The Grandfather Paradox: this is the most used fictional time paradox and to be honest I hate it the most. I understand why it could happen, but I usually just write around it since this isn't a paradox I'm interested in pursuing. the paradox centers around traveling back in time, killing your grandparent, and coming back to a timeline where time travel couldn't have happened because you no longer exist. unlike the bootstrap paradox, this one works within the realm of time being alterable "one way" and it technically creates or overwrites timelines with the choices of the time traveler. this one is really common because it means that a time traveler's actions are reversible (well, depending on if they just erase the time traveler or not). there's a problem with this particular one where trying to fix their mistakes creates a bunch of copies of the character, but many fiction writers just delete all the extra versions of them after the timeline is restored. however, that isn't a requirement. literally all this is fake science anyway

The Bootstrap Paradox: MY FAVORITE PARADOX!!! this is the time paradox that makes time travel irreversible and in a way, stuck in a perpetual loop with no true origin. no timelines get overwritten because the entirety of this paradox is contained within one, already changed, timeline. the gist of it is that "there is no time from which time travel didn't happen" meaning that the timeline is permanently affected by time travel. this puts the timeline in a "feedback loop", meaning whatever the person does in time travel has already affected the present and time will not change because it has already been changed. I like this one because the consequences are permanent. I could probably ramble about it more, but I've already talked about it before

The Pedestrian Paradox: this one is kinda similar to bootstap. time traveler goes back to past and accidentally stops something that affects the future while being sustained in an intact timeline. saving the past creates their already existing future, cause and affect type deal. 90% of the philosophy behind this one is about challenging the existence of free will.

Newcomb's Paradox: similarly to the last one, this one also challenges the existence of free will and is really only important if you have (a) god(s) for your world or the existence of anyone who can predict the future. I don't think this one is super important, but a lot of people do explore it.

anyway, creating a basis for how time moves to the will of the time traveler will help a lot in a story and will also help fill some of those pesky plot holes. I think the only thing I have left to give thought on because my brain ran away from me is: is your time machine a time machine or a time and displacement machine.

moving in time is one thing, but how does that guarantee you'll be exactly where your time machine is? will the earth's rotation and movement cause a timetraveler to end up in the middle of the ocean? or worse, space? does the time machine stay put to its coordinates on earth specifically to prevent that from happening? or does your time machine move to certain locations when it moves through time? will it be affected by the first concern? lots of things to consider when actually making a time machine and I'd definitely recommend looking into it.

generally time travel is fictional enough that you can just bullshit stuff and never have to worry about it, but also I like world building and putting some rules in place so I can stay consistent. here's a quick checklist that might help:

how does the time machine move through time? does it move physically or only temporally?

if it does move, are coordinates required for the usage of a time machine?

how will time travel affect the timeline? will it affect it independently, only changing the present as the past is altered, or will the present have always been affected by the changed past?

does time travel create alternative realities? would going back in time create a split timeline where your actions affect the past/future, but not yours because it created a new, separate, timeline now affected by your actions?

does free will exist? does it matter?

will time travel affect the abstract concept of reality? is it capable of being collapsed to begin with?

why should your character know to avoid certain scenarios like meeting their past self? does it matter?

if you're having logic problems with some of the scenarios (such as people from the future stopping their past selves from a terrible future, destroying their present in exchange for a new one, but now having no origin of time travel), then congratulations! you have ended up in a time paradox, which is completely fine and normal for creating a story that contains time travel.

I hope at least some of this made sense, I like the fake science that doesn't matter

[bonvivant-divisionbell]

this boy has so many shapes to him.

some sketchy casey's from newcomb's problem (x).

[liskantope]

Of all of KenTheCowboy_'s YouTube recent interviews, the one with Adrusi (linked to start at the relevant part of the conversation to the below) has the most interesting non-directly-Ziz-related stuff, most particularly about Newcomb's Paradox. I know I've written about Newcomb's Paradox here -- I think about it only perennially -- and I know that I've always had a strong feeling in favor of the one-boxer position, but I don't remember exactly what points I made before and don't want to search for it in case it colors the thoughts I have about it now.

For those unfamiliar or who could use a quick review (as I recently did), the premise of Newcomb's Paradox is as follows. An omniscient Entity shows you two boxes. The first is transparent and you can see that there are $100 in it. The second is opaque, and the Entity (whose word you trust completely) says that It has either put a billion dollars into this box or nothing into this box, that it will fly away unable to touch the boxes again, and that you may choose to take both boxes or only the second box. But here's the catch: the Entity has determined (using its omniscience, which I think in most interpretations comes from a deterministic model of the universe and its knowing everything about you that will determine your future actions) in advance whether you'll take both boxes or only the second one, and that It has put a billion dollars into the second box if and only if you will take only the second box.

So, what should you do, take both boxes, or take only the second one?

My take at the moment is actually a pretty simple one: it's all a matter of believing the premise (that is, believing that there could in theory be an Entity that mostly doesn't interact with the world but has determinism-based knowledge of everyone else's future actions), and if you do believe this, then of course you take only the second box because it logically follows from everything else that the Entity has determined that you were going to do this and put a billion dollars in it. It's that simple!

Well, modulo believing the premise in the first place, which admittedly is spooky and a bit mind-bending and I (despite being somewhat of a determinist) am not totally sure I believe it's logically possible even though I lean towards contending that it is.

But here's something I'm sure is a logical contradiction: having knowledge of one's own future actions, or of the future of a system that you are a part of and currently interfering in. There is a fancy way to argue this that I remember seeing once before in a philosophy paper that I'm pretty sure I posted about at the time on Tumblr. (A quick search in my archive is not finding this, though.) Something in terms of "entities from outside the system" versus "entities within the system".

Anyway, two variants on the problem are discussed in the Kenny/Adrusi conversation that both fall under The (above-described) Logically Contradictory Condition. The first one is where Adrusi is talking about how a majority of philosophers believe in taking two boxes and argue this by proposing a variant of the puzzle where the second box is transparent (so you can see whether the Entity put a billion dollars in it or not before you make your choice) and then claiming it's isomorphic to the usual version of the problem; now in the both-boxes-transparent version, it's obvious that you should take both boxes, so the philosophers conclude that the same holds for the usual version. Except I would say it's not isomorphic: the box-boxes-transparent story features The Logically Contradictory Condition!

So, so far I disagree with those philosophers and agree with Adrusi.

But then, later in the conversation (see around 1:11:35 in the video), Adrusi talks about yet a different version of the puzzle from the way I always understood it, without acknowledging any difference: they speak of making the decision to take only the second box, then opening the second box and seeing that it has a billion dollars in it and even securing it in your bank account, and then still being able to decide to take the first box with $100 (and the correct answer still being not to then take the first box!). Whereas I always understood the Newcomb's Paradox story as you having a choice to make between two boxes or one box and in one moment fully committing to your choice before seeing what's in the second box (i.e. you can't change your mind after seeing it). And the difference here is relevant because Adrusi's version again features The Logically Contradictory Condition!

In other words, [common philosopher's variant] seeing what's in the second box before making your decision is getting information about your own future choice before you make it, and [Adrusi's variant] seeing what's in the second box and then being able to change your decision from one-box to two-box is, in a sneakier way, still getting information about your future choice before you make it: after all, the Entity put the billion dollars in the second box based on your "final choice", right?

[reading-lawrence]

The Great Men of History

My proper share was a minor one, but because of a fluent pen, a free speech, and a certain adroitess of brain, I took upon myself, as I describe it, a mock primacy. In reality I never had any office among the Arabs: was never in charge of the British mission with them. Wilson, Joyce, Newcombe, Dawnay and Davenport were all over my head. I flattered myself that I was too young, not that they had more heart or mind in the work, I did my best. Wilson, Newcombe, Dawnay, Davenport, Buxton, Marshall, Stirling, Young, Maynard, Ross, Scott, Winterton, Lloyd, Wordie, Siddons, Goslett, Stent Henderson, Spence, Gilman, Garland, Brodie, Makins, Nunan, Leeson, Hornby, Peake, Scott-Higgins, Ramsay, Wood, Hinde, Bright, MacIndoe, Greenhill, Grisenthwaite, Dowsett, Bennett, Wade, Gray, Pascoe and the others also did their best. ... In these pages the history is not of the Arab movement, but of me in it.

Seven Pillars of Wisdom, preface

This is an extremely interesting passage to me when considering the legacy of T. E. Lawrence. He is often criticized in relation to what's termed "great man" history, which describes giving a handful of powerful individuals the majority of the credit for the concerted effort of many people. Usually this is a powerful white man, as in Lawrence's case; it's the same idea that a CEO is somehow the guy holding a company together, and not thousands of low-level employees. Criticism will claim that Lawrence's role in WWI was much smaller than popularly believed, and we shouldn't be giving him credit as the Uncrowned King of Arabia or whatever nonsense tabloids in 1920 called him.

And this is in many aspects a true critique, but what I think is interesting is that in his writing, Lawrence seems aware of this problem himself. The preface and dedication go out of their way to name dozens of people involved with his operation, and in other quotes I've seen he often seems uncomfortable with newspapers giving him too much praise. I think this passage is a reminder that we shouldn't confuse the public reaction to a story with the content of the story itself.

(I'll note that Lawrence does not, here, name any of his Arab allies among the people to give credit to)

[biconic-disaster25]

So...

I wrote a oneshot for @bonvivant-divisionbell 's fic 'newcomb's problem' because I'm hooked on it.

It's been a hot minute since a fic has made my heart pound from the sheer intensity of the situation so many times. WHEW BOY. I highly rec this! The writing/writer is absolutely phenomenal.

[daniel-r-h]

And to answer the queseion of why focus on absurd scenarios: it’s common in thought experiments to try to remove extraneous detail. Nobody is *actually* in the trolley problem IRL, but it still nicely illustrates a divide in how people think of things.

Newcomb’s problem is a simplified problem, in the sense of removing extraneous detail, of any situation where someone is predicting what you’ll do. It’s presented with someone who is perfect at making that prediction to remove attempts to trick them, but the math still works if they are human and can guess slightly better than a coinflip. That is why Newcomb invented it almost two decades before Yudkowsky was born, and other people analyzed it a decade before he was born, and it was in a pop science magazine six years before he was born.

More everyday, informal situations where FDT is useful are any time you use the word “promise” when there’s no enforcement mechanism for if you break the promise.

@raginrayguns

I am open to this, but every time I have tried to learn about "timeless decision theory" I have bounced off a) the motivation for it, which is coming up with mathematics congenial to his cult and b) also not having any understanding and view of non-occult Decision Theory.

I don't even know if the whole "Decision Theory" current is 'important philosophy', let alone Yudkowsky's contribution. It doesn't seem to lead to anything practical except justifying his cult. What would you say is serious about it?

[collapsedsquid]

Hawk Tuah girl disappeared after she failed to be impressed enough by Newcomb's Problem pun to bear the punster's children

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[literaturereviewhelp]

The research project involved carrying out an analysis and design of concrete pavements based on a comprehensive literature review as well as on the results of a number of engineering tests to determine the best designs for concrete pavements. Concrete pavements are road surfaces that are built using a concrete mixture of Portland cement, sand, coarse aggregate and water to provide durable surfaces that can effectively sustain vehicular or foot traffic. The history of the use of concrete pavements on roads and walkways dates back to 1893 when the world’s first strip of concrete pavement was successfully completed. According to Croney (2008), the first concrete roads were constructed in the United States at the beginning of the 20th century and the technology later spread to Europe and the other parts of the world in the 1920s. Over the years, concrete as a building material has been increasingly used for paving airports, highways, residential streets as well as business parking lots. According to many experts, the increasing popularity of concrete pavements is particularly attributed to the numerous benefits of using concrete as a paving material some of which include its durability and less maintenance requirement, workability, strength, cost effectiveness and durability. Contemporary design techniques used for concrete pavements have resulted in the development of economically sustainable concrete pavements that are not only offer one of the best riding surfaces but are able to perform for many years with minimal maintenance. According to Horenstein (34), modern designs often take into account all the diverse sorts of environmental conditions including future estimations on environmental changes and traffic growth. Currently, there is a growing need for sustainable and low cost alternative pavement materials in many developed countries including Australia.   or   The overall annual incidence of traumatic brain injury in the United Kingdom is nearly 300/100 000. (British,1998) A majority of the TBI patients are young however their life expectancy is only occasionally diminished, (NHS, 1996; Rimel et al, 1990) this has resulted in a substantial population of TBI victims living in the UK. It has been conjectured that as many as 500 000 people in the United Kingdom may be presently living with the consequences of their head injury. (McMillan &Greenwood 1991). Traumatic brain injury is often "a hidden disability"(Social, 1995) as an affected person may appear physically normal, and as yet may harbor considerable cognitive, psychological, social, emotional, and behavioral problems. While it is a fact that about 2% of the US population suffers from some form of TBI-related disability, as yet no known holistic pharmacological treatment is currently available. As a result TBI progressively causes post-acute injury, progressive neuronal degeneration occasioned by acute and delayed cell death mediated in part by calpains (Kampfl et al. 1996) and in part by apoptotic-inducing caspases (Rink et al. 1995; Colicos et al. 1996; Yakovlev et al. 1997; Conti et al. 1998; Newcomb et al. 1999; Clark et al. 2000).Thus psychosocial problems, in particular, have been documented long after discharge from acute services. These include impaired judgment, short temper, aggression, and intolerance of others. (McKinlay et al,1981; Tate et al,1981; Thomsen ,1992; Koskinen,1998) The long-term or permanent effects of brain injury may require post-injury and possibly life-long rehabilitation. Such effects include: cognitive deficits-coma, confusion, shortened attention span, memory problems and amnesia, problem-solving deficits, problems with judgment, inability to understand abstract concepts, loss of sense of time and space, decreased awareness of self and others, inability to accept more than one- or two-step commands simultaneously; motor deficits- paralysis or weakness, spasticity (tightening and shortening of the muscles), poor balance decreased endurance, inability to plan motor movements, delays in initiation. Read the full article

[the-dao-of-the-zerg]

I think a lot of religious people, especially vaguely spiritualist lefties, ARE actually fairly agnostic about their beliefs: this is what works for me, this is what "speaks" to me, this is what *I* believe. Conversely, as the image says, the difference between an atheist and an agnostic is that the atheist is willing to insist this is a factual, scientific, settled matter. (Conversely, the agnostic is perfectly willing to go along with the vaguely spiritualist lefties.) I would dare say "The Christian God is the only God, Islam is false, the Jews are all lying to you" IS actually quite incendiary and unpopular, just like "God is fake, the Christians are lying to you, Catholicism is a hollow shell used to exploit children" is also unpopular.

The offensive quality here is insisting that other people are wrong.

---

To be clear, I say all of this as someone who thinks God is fake, and everyone else is empirically, factually wrong.

I will also insist there's one correct answer to the Trolley Problem, Newcomb's Paradox, etc., and I get called annoying for that too.

People really don't like being told that they're wrong!

There's something about atheism that I've repeatedly tried and failed to put into words on several posts on this blog but I think I finally got it.

Atheists are the only religious minority who, even (or sometimes even *especially*) in ostensibly progressive spaces are not allowed to ever act like they're sure of their beliefs.

[transgenderer]

Thinking more about ethics in terms of maximizing good vs ethics in terms local good. I think maybe it makes the most sense to think of the latter as a sort of...acausal cooperation to create the kind of society you want to live in. Like it's fundamentally self interested but in a weird way. It's like the newcombs problem framing of voting, pointless if you do it but significant if everyone who acts similar to you does it. So you apply that same logic to your society and act in ways that make thst society a nicer place for you to live in. This is fundamentally distinct imo from like donating to effective charities that do work in faraway countries. Which is much more philosophically straightforward it's just causing good things to happen.

Anyway I mention all this because I think it's the strongest case for not stealing. It's nice to live in a society with less stealing. We all have to put less effort into securing our stuff. It's like not being warlike. If everyone is more warlike no one is better off we just all dedicate more resources to war. Classic prisoners dilemma

[mesaprotector]

almost any time one of those "philosophical dilemmas" comes up i find myself agreeing far more with the theologians than the rationalists.

if something is enough of a dilemma to be hard, i think it makes sense that a tradition with thousands or even millions of years behind it would be better able to find a solution, than one with a mere few decades.

newcomb's problem is a good one. it's not about cause and effect at all; it's about the price to sell your soul.