#electionforecasting

[leadpac]

🌍 World Environment Day – June 5 🌿

Let’s nurture nature, so nature can nurture us. Small actions lead to a greener future. Let’s pledge to reduce, reuse, recycle, and restore! 🌱

💚 A healthy planet begins with us.

🔹 Presented by LEADpac 📞 +91 77 93 93 93 48 🌐 www.leadpac.in

[inexable]

Election Confidence: Overconfidence or Realistic Strategy?

With House Speaker Mike Johnson predicting a sweeping GOP victory in both congressional chambers and the presidential race, the political landscape is heating up! Johnson's optimism, backed by seat-by-seat predictions and grassroots experience, suggests a possible 13-seat majority in a best-case scenario. The upcoming presidential debates add another layer of excitement, with Trump’s advisors expressing confidence despite tight polling and media scrutiny.

Is Johnson's confidence warranted or overly optimistic? Can the GOP's strategy and mobilization efforts clinch the win in battleground states? And how much impact do you think voter registration trends and grassroots campaigning will have on the upcoming elections? Let’s discuss!

[jjbizconsult]

Most Accurate 2020 Predictor AtlasIntel Says Trump Will Sweep Every Swin...

[signode-blog]

Phalodi Satta Bazar Predicts Tight Race for BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

The Phalodi Satta Bazar, a prominent and influential betting market in India, has been closely monitoring and predicting the outcomes of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Known for its historical accuracy in forecasting election results, the Phalodi market’s predictions are highly anticipated and scrutinized. As of the latest phases of the election, Phalodi Satta Bazar has adjusted its predictions,…

[armariuminterreta]

While we agree with Dr Bonham that approval ratings are rubbish, they're more the sort of thing you'd toss into recycling than landfill.

[stag28]

"the polls had been fine, more or less[..]. The failure was not so much with the polls but with the people who were analyzing them. [..] The U.S. presidential election [..] was something of a similar case. No, the polls didn’t show a toss-up, as they had in Brexit. But the reporting was much more certain of Clinton’s chances than it should have been based on the polls. Much of The New York Times’s coverage, for instance, implied that Clinton’s odds were close to 100 percent. [..] while a Trump win was unlikely, it should hardly have been unthinkable. [..] It’s hard to reread this coverage without recalling Sean Trende’s essay on “unthinkability bias,” which he wrote in the wake of the Brexit vote. Just as was the case in the U.S. presidential election, voting on the referendum had split strongly along class, education and regional lines, with voters outside of London and without advanced degrees being much more likely to vote to leave the EU. The reporters covering the Brexit campaign, on the other hand, were disproportionately well-educated and principally based in London. They tended to read ambiguous signs — anything from polls to the musings of taxi drivers — as portending a Remain win, and many of them never really processed the idea that Britain could vote to leave the EU until it actually happened. [..] political experts4 aren’t a very diverse group and tend to place a lot of faith in the opinions of other experts and other members of the political establishment. Once a consensus view is established, it tends to reinforce itself until and unless there’s very compelling evidence for the contrary position. Social media, especially Twitter, can amplify the groupthink further. It can be an echo chamber. [..] James Surowiecki’s book “The Wisdom of Crowds” which, despite its name, spends as much time contemplating the shortcomings of such wisdom as it does celebrating its successes. Surowiecki argues5 that crowds usually make good predictions when they satisfy these four conditions: Diversity of opinion. “Each person should have private information, even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.” Independence. “People’s opinions are not determined by the opinions of those around them.” Decentralization. “People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.” Aggregation. “Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.” [..] when he refers to “aggregation,” the broader idea is that there’s some way for individuals to exchange their opinions instead of keeping them to themselves. [..] There was once a notion that whatever challenges the internet created for journalism’s business model, it might at least lead readers to a more geographically and philosophically diverse array of perspectives. But it’s not clear that’s happening, either. Instead, based on data from the news aggregation site Memeorandum, the top news sources (such as the Times, The Washington Post and Politico) have earned progressively more influence over the past decade: The share of total exposure8 for the top five news sources9 climbed from roughly 25 percent a decade ago to around 35 percent last year, and has spiked to above 40 percent so far in 2017. While not a perfect measure10, this is one sign the digital age hasn’t necessarily democratized the news media. Instead, the most notable difference in Memeorandum sources between 2007 and 2017 is the decline of independent blogs; many of the most popular ones from the late ’aughts either folded or (like FiveThirtyEight) were bought by larger news organizations. Thus, blogs and local newspapers — two of the better checks on Northeast Corridor conventional wisdom run amok — have both had less of a say in the conversation."

[cristian-randieri]

Tweeted

Election 2020 Forecast. October,2017 Minnesota: Likely TRUMP My post: https://t.co/HPQxH828ss #TrumpTrain #Election2020 #MAGA #TRUMP2020 #TRUMPReelction #Reelction #Reelction2020 #Minnesota #SwingState #SwingStates #Demographics #ElectionForecast #ElectionMap

— StatesPoll,com (@StatesPoll) October 12, 2017

[leadpac]

🌸 Telangana Formation Day | June 2 🌸

Celebrating Telangana's spirit, culture, and identity – a land rich in tradition, heritage, and resilience. From the vibrant festivals to the architectural marvels, Telangana continues to inspire unity and pride.

💫 Let’s honor the journey and embrace the future with hope and harmony.

🟪 Jai Telangana! Jai Hind! 🇮🇳

🔹 Presented by LEADpac 📞 +91 77 93 93 93 48 🌐 www.leadpac.in

[leadpac]

🗓️ May 21 | World Anti-Terrorism Day

🕊️ United against hatred. Together for peace.

Today, we honor the sacrifices of our brave soldiers and reaffirm our commitment to a world free from fear, violence, and terror. Let us stand strong against all forms of extremism and promote harmony, tolerance, and unity.

🛡️ Terrorism has no religion, no face — only pain.

🔸 Message from LEADpac 📞 +91 77 93 93 93 48 🌐 www.leadpac.in

[leadpac]

🌕 Happy Buddha Purnima 🕊️

On this sacred day of enlightenment, may the teachings of Lord Buddha guide us towards compassion, wisdom, and inner peace. Let’s embrace kindness and spread harmony in every heart we touch.

🙏 “Peace comes from within. Do not seek it without.” – Gautama Buddha

🔸 Wishes from LEADpac 📞 +91 77 93 93 93 48 🌐 www.leadpac.in

[leadpac]

🌸 Happy Mother’s Day 💖

To the ones who taught us love, strength, and selflessness — today we celebrate YOU, Mom. Thank you for every cuddle, every smile, and every sacrifice. You are our first teacher, best friend, and forever hero. 👩‍👧‍👦💕

Warm wishes from LEADpac to all the amazing mothers out there!

📞 +91 77 93 93 93 48 🌐 www.leadpac.in

[leadpac]

🚑🌍 World Red Cross Day – May 8 🌍🚑

Today, we honour the brave hearts and volunteers who selflessly serve humanity in times of crisis, conflict, and calamity. Let’s celebrate the power of compassion, unity, and care that the Red Cross stands for. 🙌🏼

🌐 www.leadpac.in 📞 +91 77 93 93 93 48

[leadpac]

🪖 Operation SINDOOR 🇮🇳

A salute to our brave Indian Army personnel, whose unmatched courage and sacrifice led to the successful rescue of our citizens from danger. Their actions remind us that behind every symbol of peace stands a warrior of steel. Jai Hind!

Proudly shared by LEADpac — Honouring the heroes who protect our tomorrow.

[leadpac]

Happy Ambedkar Jayanti!

On this day, We pledge to take a stand against discrimination and always work for equality in society.

#ambedkarjayanti #equalityforall #standagainstdiscrimination #socialjustice #drbhimraoambedkar #unityindiversity #humanrights #empowerment #casteequality #celebratediversity #leadpac #politicalanalysis #politics

[leadpac]

🌍💙 World Health Day – 7 April, 2025 💙🌍

"Health is the greatest wealth." This World Health Day, let's commit to nurturing our minds and bodies. Together, we can build a brighter, healthier future for everyone!

✨ Stay active ✨ Eat mindfully ✨ Prioritize mental well-being ✨ Support accessible healthcare for all

📞 Contact us: +91 77 93 93 93 48 🌐 Visit: www.leadpac.in

[leadpac]

🎉 Happy Ram Navami! 🎉

On this auspicious day, may Lord Rama’s divine blessings fill your life with joy, peace, and prosperity. Let us embrace the virtues of truth, courage, and righteousness that He embodied.

✨ Wishing you and your family a blessed Ram Navami! ✨