#even rhaegar... (could get hubs to read it)

[ladydracarysao3]

Send me ‘voice’ and a line from my character’s canon (or of your own design) and I’ll voice act it as my character

[warsofasoiaf]

Expanding Southron Ambitions

I was reading stuff that @goodqueenaly and @moonlitgleek were writing about marriages and alliances the other day (protip: follow them). I was thinking about marriage alliances and what to consider, both from the plotters’ perspective and from what fans should think about when building out larger alliance networks, the case in particular being Southron Ambitions. You can find that theory here, written by the excellent @stefansasse, as in Stefan Sasse. Read that, because that forms the baseline for the marriage alliance network that I’ll be discussing. These principles also work when thinking about a 2-party alliance, but the discussion is geared toward multi-party coalitions, so some concerns might be different.

When it comes to building out the marriage alliance, the first question of course, is why build it out at all? Does being bigger mean being better? For that, you need to assess the risks of expanding the coalition versus the risks of keeping the ranks tight. So, what do we get?

Expanding the coalition, naturally, makes the coalition larger. Another family involved means the alliance network can offer more men and money, as well as another leader in the inner circle’s braintrust. If the new family can offer something that the previous Arryn-Baratheon-Stark-Tully does not possess, this expands their capabilities as well as their raw power.

However, expanding the coalition also endangers it. A prospective plotter could turn on the conspiracy and win themselves the eternal gratitude of House Targaryen for foiling them, especially if communications are saved and used as evidence. It also has the potential to diffuse the strategic decision-making of the group. Adding more bodies might cause friction if the goals of the individual plotters are at odds, and could even sink the conspiracy into factionalism and infighting.

By contrast, Southron Ambitions is already the single largest coalition that exists in the Seven Kingdoms. It might not be worth the risks to expand the coalition and instead keep expand the conspiracy at a future time. The obvious advantage is, of course, information secrecy. There is no risk of someone spilling any information if no offers are made. The disadvantage is, of course, that there are no new capabilities added, and if the rest of the houses of Westeros side against the conspiracy, they will be outnumbered and potentially overpowered.

After that, the advantages and disadvantages should be considered for each potential partner. Not all alliance partners are created equal, and with every alliance made, the risks for expanding, especially for internal factionalism, become larger and larger. So with that being said, what potential partners do we have, and what can they offer the conspiracy?

Top Pick: House Lannister

It comes as no surprise that House Lannister leads the pack. House Lannister offers a significant number of advantages to the Southron Ambitions conspiracy. Militarily, they offer around 40k troops at full mobilization. Geographically, the Westerlands maintain a border with the Riverlands, establishing an internal line of communication with the rest of the alliance for shipping men and materiel along the River Road. Strategically, this alliance threatens the Reach from three directions, preventing the Reach from utilizing their significant manpower reserves and causing border vassals of the Reach to be nervous in the event of an all out war. Economically, they are the wealthiest house with vast gold reserves, metalworking, and direct control of the third-largest city in Westeros. Politically, Tywin Lannister is of an ancient and highly respected (and feared) house and, after the Rains of Castamere, has few rivals and an iron grip on the loyalties of the Westermen. Additionally, with the Lannisters, three of the four ruling houses from the pre-Targaryen era (the fourth being House Martell) are allied. Tywin has little love for House Targaryen given the repeated insults and infamous rows between the king and his Hand, meaning that Tywin is less likely to report any potential conspiracy out of a desire to not aid Aerys II. Is there any wonder, then, that Jaime/Lysa was floated as a potential marriage match?

Runner-Up: House Redwyne

House Redwyne reaches the number two position, as it offers many advantages with only few risks. Militarily, while House Redwyne does not offer much in the way of an army, they have one of the largest navies in the Seven Kingdoms, and this is before Balon Greyjoy builds the Iron Fleet. Geographically, while the Redwynes are isolated from the rest of the alliance, their island makes it difficult for a front to be opened up on Redwyne soil (amphibious landings are hard even with modern technology) and the Redwyne navy can keep their seas clear. If it comes to war, eventually King’s Landing will need to be taken, and it cannot be besieged without a navy, and the small Manderly and Arryn fleets out of Gulltown are not up to the task of attacking the Velaryon fleet. Strategically, this match also divides the Reach (House Hightower isn’t going to move its levies and risk losing Oldtown), though it does not protect the western Riverlander flank. Economically, House Redwyne is loaded thanks to its grip on the wine trade. Politically, House Redwyne is a powerful house with a decent claim to Highgarden. This could make their Tyrell in-laws nervous, or bring them into the fold to secure themselves. The risk here is that while House Redwyne isn’t particularly close to House Targaryen, they don’t have any especial reason to oppose them either (unless one of Aerys’s ill-considered tariffs really stung). They might not trust the coalition and retreat inward among their own Reacher allies and then spill the plot to Aerys. Conversely, if the Tyrells fear the Redwyne machinations if they join the coalition and run to tell Aerys, it wouldn’t take much evidence to get notably paranoid Aerys to act.

The rest of these houses aren’t ranked, so they’re in alphabetical order.

House Greyjoy

Not very appealing. Militarily, it offers a good galley navy, but far less troops than House Lannister. It’s isolated though, and command of the sea means that the Greyjoys have the potential to flank an enemy Westerlands or Reach. The cultural differences will be problematic, and Quellon’s kids are notably not so keen on ties with the green lands (and Euron is Euron). Economically, the Iron Islands are poor, so not much help there. Politically, House Greyjoy is ancient and respected...among the Ironborn, but the cultural mistrust would be hard to ignore. Quellon himself is a reformer, and that’s not nothing, but pushing for strong ties like that might risk a cultural revolt that the alliance partners would have to assist in putting down. Quellon himself might spill the plot to Aerys in the hopes of tying the Isles closer to the mainland, but he’d probably play it safe and keep mum, just in case the conspiracy ends up winning, much the same as he did during Robert’s Rebellion.

House Hightower

House Hightower has a lot of advantages. They’re one of the stronger Reachmen houses, so they offer plenty of troops comparatively. They divide the Reach as the others do, but there is a serious weakness. The Hightowers are isolated compared to the other members, which opens up an isolated pocket that can be surrounded by the Reach to the north and east and potentially endanger an alliance partner. This both undermines a war effort and becomes a serious political consideration for the Hightowers jumping onboard with the plot. Economically, though, they’re loaded, and they’ve got Oldtown, the second-largest city in the Seven Kingdoms, and one that’s a bit better as a trading hub than Lannisport since it’s a shorter voyage to Essos. The risks of the plot being spoiled, however, are the same as House Redwyne, depending  on whether or not Mace is married, betrothed, or unaffiliated.

House Martell

This one is chancy. They’re the most powerful house in Dorne, and while they don’t offer as many troops as the Lannisters or Tyrells, they still have a significant number. Geographically, Dorne secures the Stormland’s southern border via the Boneway (unless the Yronwoods rebel), and they can threaten the Reach via the Prince’s Pass, so there is some strategic potential there. It also secures the east coast, though the coalition doesn’t have the naval power to threaten the royal fleet.  Politically, like the Lannisters, the Martells are an ancient, royal house, which offers a tremendous amount of political legitimacy and the Martells have a better hold over their bannermen than the Tyrells. Culturally, there’s a bit of a cultural divide, but not as severe as the ironborn given that the Dornish still follow the Faith, and there’s some cultural similarities in outlook and personality if nothing else with the North if the worldbook is to be believed. Economically, the Dornish aren’t as wealthy as some other picks, but they do offer a diverse export portfolio, which offers its own benefits and capabilities when dealing with foreign trade partners. The chancy part is the risk. The Unnamed Princess of Dorne (Eupodia Martell as I call her), wants to wed Elia to Rhaegar, and revealing this conspiracy would give her all the clout she needs to make that match.

House Yronwood

This is a strange one. The perennial rivals to the Martells, the Yronwoods are the number two house in Dorne. Militarily, they don’t have many levies compared to the Martells or the Hightowers, so unless they can pull other Dornish houses away from the Martells (perhaps using a salty/stony cultural divide), they’re going to have troubles in the event of a war. They secure the Baratheon southern border, but it forces the Baratheons to march south, and this means that the Riverlands have to push south to threaten the Reach lest the Reachmen levies steamroll east. Politically, the Yronwoods are an old house, but they’ve been number two for a while, since the Dornish unification, so their political prestige isn’t as strong as House Martell. Economically, the Yronwoods don’t have much, and any civil war would eventually have the ouster of House Martell and the installation of the Yronwoods as the new rulers. The risk is lower than the Martells though, since giving them the chance to claim their ancient lordship over them could help entice them to join the conspiracy, especially if this is after Rhaegar and Elia are wed.

Those are a few houses, feel free to let me know what houses you think would make the best choices or any other considerations that might make one house more or less appealing. As for actual marriages, I’d recommend asking @goodqueenaly because she’s the best when it comes to that.

-SLAL