#fib retracement

[stockmarketdailyupdates]

How the Fibonacci Retracement Strategy Can Enhance Your Trading Portfolio

The Fibonacci sequence, named after Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa (also known as Fibonacci), is a series of numbers where each is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. For example, 3 and 5 add up to 8, the seventh number in the sequence. It goes like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and so on, continuing to infinity.

How Does Fibonacci Retracement Work? According to Fibonacci retracement theory, after a stock makes an upward move, you can anticipate a pullback to specific Fibonacci levels. For example, the stock might first correct to 23.6%, and if it drops further, traders can watch the 38.2% and 61.8% levels as potential support points. This technique, known as the Fibonacci trading strategy, helps traders forecast corrections or trend reversals.

How to Use Fibonacci Retracement in Trading To use the Fibonacci retracements, we should first identify the 100% Fibonacci move. Once this is identified, we connect them using a Fibonacci retracement tool.  ​ Here’s know how you can implement the Fibonacci retracement trading strategy.

[thalialunacy]

Thalia’s Sherlock Recs pt 10

(back to rec index)

R

Ravish Me by amalnahurriyeh

The Real Meaning of Idioms by feverishsea

Red Apples by naughtyspirit

The Red Roses by SilentAuror

The Red-Headed League by JRow

Renegades by augustbird

Repairing the Broken Things by BakerTumblings

Responsible Adults by J_Baillier

The Result of It All by orphan_account

Retrace by DiscordantWords

Ridiculous by KateAtTheClose

The River Variations by withoutawish

A River Without Banks by Chryse

Roman Holiday by emmagrant01

S

Santa Knows by Itsallfine

Scheherazade of the Thrift Shop by standbygo

Scrutiny by lifeonmars

Second Chance by SilentAuror

The Secret by weeesi

See Recipe for Details by pandoras_chaos

Sehnsucht by unicornpoe

Sell Out by Unloyal_Olio

A Sense of Propriety by orphan_account

Seventeen Letters by out_there

The Sexual Awakening of Sherlock Holmes and Dr. John Watson by suitesamba

Shallow Grave by SilentAuror

A Shipless Ocean by myswordfishmind

The Short But Illustrious Babysitting Career of Sherlock Holmes, as Recounted by the Man Himself by Dee_Laundry

Shrivelfigs by lifespossible

Silent Treatment by peevee

Six Dates by avawtsn

The Six Steps of Courtship by emptycel

a slice of sentiment by darcylindbergh

Slow and Steady by SailorChibi

Slowly by orphan_account

A Smart-Arse Consulting Detective Is For Life, Not Just For Christmas by Berty

The Smashed Stradivarius by sunnyrea

Sociopathy and Other Fibs by kinklock

Some Nights by SailorChibi

Someone Else’s Heart by thisprettywren

Sometimes When We Touch by kedgeree

The space between by Salambo06

Spaces Between by aubkae

Speaker for the Bees by antietamfalls

Stages of Grief by Speranza

stake by light

State of Flux by Atiki

Stay by msdisdain

Stay for Me by Itsallfine

The Still World by esplenade

A Storm for Late Blooming by zemph147

Stood in History by philalethia

Stradivarius by berty

The Strait of Juan de Fuca by mightypog

Stranded by BeautifulFiction

Strings by EstherShapiro

A Study in Body Shots by wearitcounts

A Study in Sentiment by ManicMoose

A Study in Sexuality by Jupiter_Ash

A Study in Spherification by mistyzeo

Succulent by FinAmour

Supernova by buttcat

Survival Instinct by shirleyholmes

Sussex by SilentAuror

Swallow the Night by ArwaMachine

Sweet William by Joules Mer

Swift, Fierce & Obscene by J_Baillier

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[bitcoincables]

Bitcoin Price Declines 8% but Bulls Active above $40,000

The price of Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline after reaching close to $45,000, dropping over 8%. However, there seems to be some bullish activity above the $40,000 level. Bitcoin is currently trading below $43,500 and the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average. A key bullish trend line with support near $43,500 was broken, indicating bearish signs.

Bitcoin had been in a bullish zone after surpassing the $40,000 resistance, steadily rising above $42,000 and $43,000. The price even reached above $44,000 but failed to test the $45,000 resistance. It then began a swift downward correction, falling below $44,000. Additionally, there was a break below the crucial bullish trend line near $43,500.

The BTC/USD pair dropped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward movement from its swing low of $39,398 to the high of $44,699. Bitcoin is currently trading below both $43,500 and the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average. However, the $40,000 support level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level are being defended by the bulls. The price is currently attempting a recovery but is facing resistance near $42,400.

Read the original article

BitcoinPrice #BearishSigns #BullishMomentum #Cryptocurrency

[ellenstradingjournal]

back testing 07/16/2025

GBPJPY - Joining a short after confirmation of market direction using the 4h chart as a reference for a possible area of retracement. Price approaching the 0.79 fib level on 4H.

Price initial reaction to 0.79% fib level.

Looking for displacement

Confirmed displacement , looking to join and waiting for retracement.

[aureavault]

AureaVault Bitcoin Analysis: Why This $108K Breakout Hits Different ✨

bitcoin is doing that thing again ✨

okay so i've been watching bitcoin charts way too much lately (don't judge me) and something pretty cool is happening that i wanted to share with y'all

the breakout that actually broke out

bitcoin just smashed through $108,500 like it was made of paper. and i'm not talking about some quick spike that immediately dumps - this looks like the real deal. we're sitting pretty above $110k right now and the charts are looking chef's kiss

the technical stuff is all aligning too:

broke above that annoying bearish trendline

sitting comfortably above the 100-hour moving average

macd is getting spicy in bullish territory

rsi is vibing above 50

what AureaVault's analysis is showing

been following some solid analysis from AureaVault (https://www.ajslkz.com/) and they're highlighting some interesting patterns. the fibonacci levels are actually behaving like they're supposed to for once, which is honestly refreshing in crypto land

the 23.6% retracement level held as support during the recent consolidation, which is exactly what you want to see if you're bullish. it's like bitcoin is following the textbook for once instead of just yeeting itself in random directions

resistance levels to watch

next up we've got:

$111,600 (immediate resistance)

$112,000 (the big one everyone's watching)

$112,500 (if we get this far, things get interesting)

if bitcoin can clear $112,500 cleanly, we might be looking at a run toward $115k or even higher. but crypto gonna crypto, so who knows really

the vibe check

honestly, this feels different from the usual bitcoin pump and dump cycles. there's actual technical structure here, not just pure hopium and rocket emojis. the breakout had conviction, the follow-through has been solid, and the indicators are backing up the price action

that said, crypto markets are absolutely unhinged and can humble you faster than you can say "diamond hands." key support levels are at $110,800 and $109,750 - if those break, the whole thesis gets questionable

personal thoughts

i'm cautiously optimistic about this setup. it's got all the ingredients for a decent move higher, but i'm also not betting the farm on it. the 50% fib level at $109,750 is basically the make-or-break point for me

what do you think? are we finally getting that sustained bitcoin rally or is this just another elaborate bull trap? the charts look promising but crypto markets love to do the opposite of what seems obvious

anyway, this is not financial advice, just me rambling about squiggly lines on charts at 2am because apparently this is my life now 🤷‍♀️

always dyor and never invest more than you can afford to lose

[okx-referral-code]

📈TRUMP/USDT Chart Analysis📉

After breaking out of the descending triangle pattern, the TRUMP price has retraced to trade within the upper boundary of the triangle, within the $13.7 breakout point.

After breaching the 0.236 Fibonacci level ($14.01), the Official Trump price now looks to be on a correction, headed for the next support zone within the triangle.

However, the price of Official Trump still trades above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which indicates that TRUMP is still bullish.

If the bulls find support around the 0.382 Fibonacci level (13.32), the price could soar back to $16.37 zone, an 18% surge from the current level.

On the flip side, if the bears exert more pressure, the $12.21 (0.618 Fib level) acts as a cushion against downward pressure.

[mood-report]

Boom

The SPX blew away the "important Fib confluence level" and the March 25th swing point with volume.

Better than expected China negotiations, 90-day tariff pause.

Epic prescription drug re-pricing plan (probably the most ballsy Executive Order yet).

India-Pakistan cease fire.

Potential Russia-Ukraine cease fire.

All this on a full moon.

Multiple options remain for a completion of the corrective pattern, but that's what I'm calling the move down from the all-time highs now: a corrective pattern.

Was it a simple ABC correction down to the April 7th low that's now resolving as an impulse to record highs (where we might be somewhere in a strong 3rd-wave)?

Are we nearing completion of an ABC rally before some sort of re-test of the lows?

Are we testing the 78.6% retracement of the decline and about to fall out of bed before tracing out a high level triangle before new highs?

Corrective patterns are many. Detecting which one is a mix of art and guesswork. Not a fan of the latter.

The absolute most simple thing is to take it step by step. We're closing in on the 78.6% at 5866.58. How it acts there is a huge tell.

Oh, and regarding the full moon, the market move could be *full* as well. I'll be most likely pricing short-dated puts tomorrow.

(click on the chart if Tumblr is cropping it)

[pearlslittlespot-blog]

My daily notes. What I am seeing. Not investment advice. Never investment advice. I am writing for me to understand not you.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) –Chart Analysis for end of day, April 4, 2025

505.28

Important points

Friday

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing their collars in the face of the selloff.

Holding steady into the last 3 hours near the lows of the day. We are through major support lines.

Testing and retesting the big support line on the channel. Crucial moments ahead.

Closer to an ‘all correlations go to 1’ event. VZ and MO are falling like rocks.

The play next week might be a volatility crush on the VIX. We made an intraday top at 44 touching a level going back to COVID.

Volatility control funds were never designed to manage this sort of sigma event volatility. They, at best, handle bell curve or a handful of sigma deviations from the mean.

Thursday

The market opened lower with a massive gap to fill. The September low provided support causing a bounce.

Lots of technical damage was done this week. Should not be surprising with the spinning top into a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart.

We are not near the bottom yet. No ‘all correlations go to 1’ event.

---

Technical Breakdown

April 4, 2025

Don’t ask about moving averages. They are far above us. The 300d EMA for SPX is 5525.

Far below moving averages. 4875 and 4575 on SPX are next. 4825 on the 50% Fib retracement from the 2022 low.

SPY is at a confluence of the downtrend channel and a trendline from the 2022 low. Just below the trendline from the 2002 low touching the 2023 low.

The selloff provided confirmation of the spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle.

Free fall through the bottom of the downtrending channel on the daily chart. Thinking we may see a retracement to the downtrending channel in the coming week before earnings.

18.74 RSI on the 4-hour chart. 17.96 on the 1-hour chart. 23.24 on the daily chart for SPY. 27.17 on the weekly chart.

We closed below the bottom of the downtrending channel which started from the bottom in 2022.

April 3, 2025

Crashed through previous support in the overnight and on the open. Bounced off the September 2023 low. A retest of the upper band on the downtrending channel is possible.

Still appears to be a lot of hopium in the market.

We are sitting just below a trendline that started in 2020 and touched the 2022 low. Volume is already higher than last week on the weekly chart.

Every time frame is ugly for SPY. Crashed into the red on the daily MACD.

Nothing pretty about anything.

April 1, 2025

Bounced off and defended 554.5. Defended on multiple occasions the last few days.

Stronger volume which bodes well for continuation.

Tested the downtrend channel today after breaking through yesterday turning it into support.

Testing and bouncing off the 330d EMA.

March 31, 2025

The morning volume tapered off from the drop and rebound at open.

Around 12:30, volume picked up. Likely some funds window dressing at the end of quarter.

Very heavy volume with a spinning top red candle in the last 15 minutes.

Moved through a resistance level.

March 29, 2025

Monthly MACD is in the process of turning negative.

Spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart.

At the .236 retracement from the 2022 low. Levels below are 514, 483, and 452.

At the bottom of a channel extending back to the 2020 lows.

Everything previous is rendered moot.

March 27, 2025

Weekly MACD is still negative. This down week is not helping with respect to repairing damage.

Doji on the daily. Maybe an up day tomorrow since we are bouncing off support.

Still in the channel. More to the upside than downside. We are bouncing off the bottom of the channel.

Possibly we drift until the end of quarter with an April drop.

Gravestone doji to end the day on the 4-hour chart. Retesting the 23.6 retracement.

Almost a bearish engulfing on the 1-hour. Strong negative volume to close the day.

Lower highs and lower lows on the 1-hour RSI.

March 25, 2025

The MACD on the weekly chart is negative. The 12 is starting to bend but needs time.

The MACD on the daily chart is positive pointing to higher prices. RSI is at 50 meaning uncertainty.

Price action on the daily chart shows a test of the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. We have moved above the 200d moving average. Right now, we sit at the top of a channel with resistance at 5800. Both the top of the channel and a resistance line going back to the post-election gap.

On the 1-hour chart, we are rolling over to the negative. Close to 0.

---

Key Support & Resistance Levels

Resistance Zones (Upside Targets)

Gap fill to 536 and 555.

Reclaim the upward trendline.

Support Levels (Downside Risks)

483 and 452 are Fibonacci at the 2022 lows.

380 is the support from the 2008 low touching the 2020 low.

---

Key Fundamental Data for the Week ending April 3, 2025

Latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for Q1 is now down -2.8%.

JOLTS came in weaker than expected.

ISM was weaker as well at 44.7 showing contraction for the manufacturing sector. New orders fell to the lowest level in 2 years. Inventories highest in 3 years.

Challenger Job Cuts up to 275k from 175k in February. Jobless Claims were slightly down. Continuing claims up.

Unemployment came in stronger than expected at 228,000 but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and last month’s figures were revised to the downside.

---

Volume & Momentum Considerations

Volume exploded on Thursday and Friday

Strong downside momentum

Oversold going into the weekend with prices at important support levels.

---

Trading Plan & Risk Management

Bullish Scenario

None

Bearish / Hedge Scenario

Shorted the VIX due to the oversold nature of the markets. Closed at 44 which is the same point as Covid 2020.

Moved stops up on shorts.

---

News and Random Thoughts:

Friday:

Some hard rumors last night. Microsoft might be preparing to cut CAPEX which has been holding up tech valuations this year. If true, look for tech to crater as AI implodes on itself.

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing collars in the face of the selloff. One has to ask if the JP Morgan collar at 5300 for the 2nd quarter will be defended for the entire quarter.

TikTok sale is expected over the weekend. Put off now for 75 days.

Earnings are meaningless at this point. It is all about the guidance and second quarter. Still trading at 20x multiple for future earnings.

US hits the debt ceiling at the end of May.

Credit spreads are over 4 at 4.01.

We are in a mess technically but oversold everywhere meaning we should see a snapback next week.

The VIX closed at levels associated with the 2020 Covid selloff.

Thursday:

The tariff news has come in worse than expected for the markets, leading to an overnight correction.

The markets do appear to be too high based on incoming data. This week, ISM new orders crashed and prices paid rose. Atlanta Fed GDP is coming in at -3.8% for Q1. Challenger Job Cuts are rising but not filtering through to Jobless Claims yet.

Quarter 1 earnings are starting with JPM next Friday. Expect a mess because nobody cares about quarter one. All eyes will be tariff impacts and guidance for the year.

The JPM collar at 5300 seems strange to me with all of the bad news. I expect it to be a heavily defended spot unless rewritten lower. It is a possibility.

Bear market level on SPX is 4920. SPY is 490.58.

The problem with us being oversold is that there needs to be some catalyst. Earnings are coming but the quarter has been getting worse as it progressed. Guidance will be paramount. Who cares if you hit this quarter if you guide down for the next? Hoping on earnings alone is hopium. The market discounts out 3-6 months and this slowdown has yet to be fully priced in.

Bill Gross says not to catch a falling knife.

The effects will start to be felt soon.

Correlations are not 1. Yet.

Tuesday’s rise was a follow-through from Monday. Meme and recent IPO’s popped hard after Coreweave’s failed IPO last week sucked life out of the IPO market.

Monday’s drop on the open and subsequent rally was good from a few angles. We closed the gap and pushed through resistance. Volume was stronger than Friday.

The downside is that it feels like a trap with all the negative news flow behind the scenes. GDP and targets are being revised lower. End of quarter rebalancing. Top 10 stocks in QQQ were mixed with 4 up and 6 down. 5 of the 6 were down .90% or more.

The JP Morgan collar for the second quarter is 5,300.

A lot of technical damage was done in the sell off. You should not expect a V-shaped recovery. Especially with all the negative data coming out.

Everything below is moot based on Friday’s price action. A spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle is a red alert.

Nothing good on the charts. Hard to do a writeup when there is nothing positive to say. There needs to be a catalyst for a rebound after the previous rebound was wiped out on Friday.

If we did, it would be to all-time highs with valuations. To start the year, we were priced to perfection. Returning to that would mean another sell off.

----

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) –Chart Analysis 04/04/25

422.67

Important Notes

Into open air on the downside. Not good. Not a place to be long.

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing their collars in the face of the selloff.

Holding steady into the last 3 hours near the lows of the day. We are through major support lines.

Testing and retesting the big support line on the channel. Crucial moments ahead.

Closer to an ‘all correlations go to 1’ event. VZ and MO are falling like rocks.

The play next week might be a volatility crush on the VIX. We made an intraday top at 44 touching a level going back to COVID.

Lots of IPO’s are now on pause.

---

Technical Breakdown

April 4, 2025

Crashed through the channel on Nasdaq, retested, and tested the low for the day.

Below the channel on QQQ.

28.44 RSI on the weekly. 24.11 RSI on the daily. 20.90 on the 4-hour. 20.09 RSI on the 1-hour.

Crashed through the downtrending channel.

Followed through on the spinning top doji into an engulfing bearish channel.

April 3, 2025

The monthly is terrible. Rollover has happened. We are probably looking at a good 6 months until we cross back over to the positive.

The weekly chart is ugly. The daily chart has us below 452.46, a Fibonacci retracement from the 2020 low.

435 is the channel low.

If we clear the channel low. The next stop is 400, which is a line going back to 2008.

Heavy volume today.

March 31, 2025

Tapering volume to start with a pickup in the afternoon and a very strong close.

6 of the top 10 holdings were down for the day. 5 of the 6 down 0.90% or more.

Unlike the S&P, we are a good bit below resistance into open space. Hard to see what will hold this up.

We are in an area defining the mid-March low. The rest of the week will be important. Do we get a lower high and a lower low?

March 28, 2025

Everything below was invalidated on Friday.

The monthly MACD has rolled over. Last time this happened was January 2022. Overbought RSI has rolled over.

Weekly MACD and RSI are negative. We tested the 23.6% Fibonacci from the 2022 low, bounced back, and now retesting.

MACD turning negative on the 4-hour.

We are below the resistance line from the 2023 low. The next trendline is from the 2020 low at 340. Only Fibs now.

On the weekly, we have a spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle.

Previous

Negative on the weekly chart. Las week’s bullish candle was done on tepid volume. Weekly MACD is negative.

The daily chart is active in terms of levels. We tested the 38.2 fibonacci and pulled back over the past 2 trading days on tepid volume. The 38.2 level was also a resistance level going back to the post-election pregap close. Sitting now on a trend line. Shooting star candle on the 27th. Sitting just below the 23.6% Fibonacci. In a tight channel with ~496 as the top and 481 as the bottom.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is in the process of rolling over. The 1-hour MACD is still moving lower.

Gap from March 21 is filled. Gap back to March 13th remains open.

---

Fundamental Data for the week ending April 3, 2025

Latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for Q1 is now down -2.8%.

JOLTS came in weaker than expected.

ISM was weaker as well at 44.7 showing contraction for the manufacturing sector. New orders fell to the lowest level in 2 years. Inventories highest in 3 years.

Challenger Job Cuts up to 275k from 175k in February. Jobless Claims were slightly down. Continuing claims up.

Unemployment came in stronger than expected at 228,000 but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and last month’s figures were revised to the downside.

---

Key Support & Resistance Levels

Resistance Zones (Upside Targets)

433.06 is the bottom of the channel. Retested during the day.

Gap fills to 450 and 473.

Support Levels (Downside Risks)

Combined Fibs from 2020 and 2022 lows. Not sure which one is more relevant.

2022 23.6 – 474 38.2 – 432.63 50 – 399 .618 – 317.54 100 – 256.58

2020 23.6 – 452.46 38.2 – 397.35 50 – 352.8 61.8 – 308.26 78.6 – 244.84 100 – 164.05

382 is a trendline from 2008 touching 2020 and 2022.

---

Volume & Momentum Considerations

4/4/25

Not good. Lots of additional technical damage.

---

Trading Plan & Risk Management

Bullish Scenario (Continuation Above 200EMA)

The bottom of the downtrending channel is 430.

Gap fills at 450 and 466.

Bearish / Hedge Scenario (Failed Follow-through)

Entry:

Target 1:

Target 2:

Target 3:

Stop-loss:

---

News and Random Thoughts:

Friday:

Some hard rumors last night. Microsoft might be preparing to cut CAPEX which has been holding up tech valuations this year. If true, look for tech to crater as AI implodes on itself.

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing collars in the face of the selloff. One has to ask if the JP Morgan collar at 5300 for the 2nd quarter will be defended for the entire quarter.

TikTok sale deadline extended 75 days. Put off now for 75 days.

Earnings are meaningless at this point. It is all about the guidance and second quarter. Still trading at 20x multiple for future earnings.

US hits the debt ceiling at the end of May.

Credit spreads are over 4 at 4.01.

We are in a mess technically but oversold everywhere meaning we should see a snapback next week.

The VIX closed at levels associated with the 2020 Covid selloff.

Stagflation.

Thursday:

The tariff news has come in worse than expected for the markets, leading to an overnight correction.

The markets do appear to be too high based on incoming data. This week, ISM new orders crashed and prices paid rose. Atlanta Fed GDP is coming in at -3.8% for Q1. Challenger Job Cuts are rising but not filtering through Jobless Claims yet.

Quarter 1 earnings are starting with JPM next Friday. Expect a mess because nobody cares about quarter one. All eyes will be tariff impacts and guidance for the year.

The JPM collar at 5300 seems strange to me with all the bad news. I expect it to be a heavily defended spot unless it is rewritten lower. A possibility.

Bear market level on SPX is 4920. SPY is 490.58.

Stopped out of my short. Reentered EOD at smaller positions.

The problem with us being oversold is that there needs to be some catalyst. Earnings are coming but the quarter has been getting worse as it progressed. Guidance will be paramount. Who cares if you hit this quarter if you guide down for the next? Hoping on earnings alone is hopium. The market discounts out 3-6 months and this slowdown has yet to be fully priced in.

The effects will start to be felt soon.

Failed Coreweave IPO is not helping matters any.

Tuesday’s rise was a follow-through from Monday. Meme and recent IPO’s popped hard after Coreweave’s failed IPO last week sucked life out of the IPO market.

Correlations are not 1. Yet.

Friday was bad. Worse than anyone realizes. The technicals are flashing red lights everywhere. A rollover on the monthly. Spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle. If Monday is bad, this could get very ugly, very fast.

I have been thinking about where we are on an Elliott Wave diagram. People thought this was a wave 5 and they are wrong. Looks like a Wave 1 to me. If this is Wave 3, the longest, we see the 400 area as a bottom.

—-

Bitcoin/IBIT - 3/2/25 We hit resistance and sold off. Next few days will be important. Channel support is 91,200. Watch like a hawk for the next move.

3/3/25 - They took away the entire weekend move in one day placing Bitcoin back down to where it was EOD on Friday. What this weekend and Monday did was establish the channel with 95,300 as the resistance and 85,500 as support. Continue to watch like a hawk. It looks like we are going to get a small rally before another takedown. Watch for a break of support followed by a retest to enter into a new short position.

3/11/25 - V harmonic on the charts. Into an uptraend with resistance at 83,800, 85,200, and 86,900. Would place us back on the ledge from the 8th. Shorts stopped out. Looing for new entry points. Maybe a rally that pushes us up to the 86.9 line. Above that is 92k.

Lots of technical damage. Will take months to recover.

3/25/25 - Still in downtrend channel on the weekly. 2 green candles in a row but on very weak volume. Daily chart showing much of the same with a possible rollover. Bouncing off the 330D moving average on daily. Having issues with the 200 candle on the 4 hour chart. Weak volume on last 2 down days.

Bitcoin is quietly meandering in a small range with no push to move higher or lower.

5D - 0

1M - 0

3M - U

6M - D

1Y - U

5Y - D

SBIT - none

Put - 1/15/27 15P 10*

—-

Watch Cass Freight Index - Shipments

Market note - High option premiums

JPM collar on at 5565

[crypto195]

BlockDAG Presale 8% Automatic Bonus Takes Crypto Throne as Ethereum Price Drops & Dogecoin Wobbles

BlockDAG Presale Hits $68M with Exciting 8% Bonus System The crypto market might be down right now, but many are keeping their eyes on the future, waiting for the next big boom. Now is a great time to spot opportunities that could pay off when the market improves. One thrilling chance at the moment is BlockDAG, which has quickly raised $68 million in its presale and is generating excitement with its 8% leaderboard bonuses. In contrast, Ethereum is struggling below $2,680, hinting at a further decline. Meanwhile, Dogecoin price is influenced by key levels around $0.1042 and $0.1000, with most holders still in profit despite recent large transactions.

Ethereum Price Drops Below $2,650 Resistance Ethereum price tried to rise above $2,680 but couldn't sustain the increase and fell below $2,650, similar to Bitcoin's recent movement. It also dropped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level and the 100-hour moving average.

To Know More- Toncoin Price Prediction

[thecryptounderground]

Daily Analysis 5.14.24 with The Crypto Underground

What's Going On Traders?

Got to give credit where it's due - the video analysis from yesterday wound up being a bit more on point than my written post. In the video, I clearly stated that if the 50% Fibonacci retracement level failed to hold as support, we'd likely see a retest of the old consolidation line.

Well, that's exactly what played out after the 50% Fib didn't survive as a solid bounce level. We've since pulled back to that former consolidation resistance which has now flipped to support intraday. As I record this, the price is indeed bouncing off that key line once again.

Have to tip my cap to the video take for nailing that retracement path. My post was a little too bullish on the prospect of the 50% Fib level holding and triggering a continuation higher. Sometimes you read the charts right, sometimes you get it slightly off.

What's clear now is we have a tougher road ahead to reclaim bullish momentum. That old consolidation line has proven to be a formidable barrier whether serving as resistance or support. And on the way up to my 70K target, that same line is going to pop up as potential resistance in multiple key areas.

So bullish or bearish resolution, we're likely in for a drawn-out grind either way until we can finally clear that level for good. Lots of tug-of-war action coming up as we navigate these key inflection points marked by the consolidation line.

No way around it - the path of least resistance has gotten bumpier in the short-term. But that's why we stay vigilant, remain adaptable, and roll with the punches. Looking forward to battling it out! Until the next update..

[centfx]

Centfx

Analysis of Silver Prices: XAG/USD declines due to rising US dollar and rising inflation

The XAG/USD uptrend is still in place despite the retracement, and falls are seen as chances for purchasers to hold onto Silver's bid. Silver sellers have been unable to drive prices below the 50% Fibonacci retracement, or $27.05, of the Fib drawn from the swing low at $24.34 to the most recent high at $29.76 during the course of the previous four trading days. Should traders break above $28.00, it would open the door for more gains in the event of a bullish resumption. The 23.6% Fib retracement at $28.48 and the $29.00 level would be the first and second resistance points, respectively. The year-to-date (YTD) high of $29.76 would be the next supply area to consider. Conversely, bears may have some solace if XAG/USD declines below Analysis of Silver Prices: XAG/USD declines due to rising US dollar and rising inflation the 61.8% retracement at $26.41 and the 50% Fib retracement at $27.05. A following decline is observed below that level, revealing the intersection of the 78.6% Fib retracement at $25.50 and the 50-day moving average (DMA).

centfx #forexdaily #forexdaytrader #forexforbeginners #forexfamily

[likesmoney]

Correction

At 25 weeks, stocks are in their timing band for an ICL. Stocks formed a weekly swing high, broke below the weekly trend line and closed below the 10 week MA to signal the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks should turn the 10 week MA lower in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline. Oftentimes an intermediate cycle decline retraces to the 38 fib level, which coincides with a previous…

[ellenstradingjournal]

Trades for Week 3 July 14-18

USDJPY Buy Risk-0.08% Reward-0.52%

AUDUSD Buy Risk-0.18% Reward-0.56%

waiting for the price to retrace from 0.62% fib level.

Oh man! glad I deleted the order to buy at 0.62%. The price was acting rather funky and I wasn't feeling comfortable looking at how the price is moving. TRADING PLAN FOR USDJPY CONTINUATION 7/16/25

TRADE PLAN FOR AUDUSD

[dencyemily]

Market Buzz: Analyst's Bold Prediction Envisions a Potential 4000% Surge for VRA

Egrag Crypto, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency analysis realm, has recently unveiled a comprehensive analysis that foresees a substantial surge in VRA, setting the stage for potentially lucrative returns for investors. The analysis strategically identifies an imminent breakout for VRA, presenting savvy investors with strategic entry points to capitalize on potential gains.

At the heart of Egrag's analysis is the current chart formation of VRA, which strikingly mirrors a previous cycle, showcasing a distinctive "W" pattern. According to the analyst, this pattern serves as a crucial indicator of an impending significant upward movement in the value of VRA.

The analysis pinpoints a critical juncture in VRA's chart, suggesting the likelihood of an imminent breakout. Should this breakout materialize, Egrag Crypto predicts that VRA could reach Fib 0.702, approximately around 0.0288c, before retracing to Fib 0.5. This retracement, as per the analyst's suggestion, could offer reasonable entry points for long positions, maximizing the potential for gains.

Egrag's analysis goes further to outline ambitious price targets for VRA post-surge, including Fib 1.272 (around 0.23C), Fib 1.414 (around 0.38C), and Fib 1.618 (around 0.82C). These levels represent significant milestones that, if achieved, could propel VRA into unprecedented valuation territory.

The overarching sentiment conveyed by Egrag's analysis is one of optimism and the potential for substantial wealth generation. Emphasizing the transformative impact of VRA's projected surge on investors' portfolios, the analyst boldly states, "VRA alone will make you a multi-millionaire."

While the cryptocurrency market is known for its speculative nature and inherent volatility, Egrag's meticulous analysis provides valuable insights for investors navigating this dynamic landscape. As traders eagerly await unfolding developments, all eyes are on VRA, positioned at the brink of what could be a historic surge.

For cautious investors, conducting thorough research and exercising prudence in navigating the unpredictable terrain of cryptocurrency investments is always advisable. However, for those bold enough to seize the opportunity, the potential 4000% surge in VRA presents a rare chance to ride the wave of crypto fortune.

[mood-report]

DrudgeMonday

All this from a mere 23.6% Fib Retracement.

Wake me if USDJPY breaks 125.