#given past class statistics I already anticipated I might have to go back... that is literally what this is for

[northwestofinsanity]

God, I love it when my classmates blow up the class group chat with nastiness over something entirely stupid for the N'th time. Like, please, don't.

[architectnews]

New UK Housing: British Housebuilding

New British Homes, Property in England, Building, ONS House Price Index 2021, Architect

New UK Housing: Housebuilding News

UK Residential Property Expansion + Housebuilding Issues: Reaction to Budget

3 August 2021

UK commercial premises conversion to residential property

This week the Government’s new rules have come into effect making it easier for commercial premises to be converted into residential property. While this might seem like a welcome change, will we really see the high street and office blocks converted into flats – it surely won’t be that easy, says Savio D’Costa, Commercial Real Estate Partner at JMW Solicitors:

“With demand clearly outstripping supply for housing, it is extremely sensible to make it easier to convert building usage for different purposes. As shops move online and restaurants and bars struggle to turn a profit, converting those properties to homes will help meet the high demand for residential housing. However, it’s not as straightforward as it might first appear. These rules have overlooked certain basic requirements – such as being able to convert external facades.

“In addition, the juxtaposition of commercial premises coexisting with residential housing such as in office blocks also has its drawbacks and could change the business district environment altogether.”

16 June 2021

UK House Price Rise

ONS House Price Index Rise

Today’s ONS House Price Index shows that the average UK house price rose by 8.9% in the year to April 2021.

Jamie Johnson, CEO of FJP Investment, said: “While today’s ONS’s data reaffirms what most of us already knew, which is that house prices have risen significantly throughout the first half of the year, we have to remember that there is a time delay with this index. We are receiving insight into the state of the market in April, not right now. This is important because, as the stamp duty holiday approaches, we are really waiting to see if the house price growth continues, plateaus or falls across June, July and into summer.

“The rate of growth has slowed slightly according to ONS, and I expect this trend to continue once the initial stamp duty holiday deadline passes on 30 June. However, given the scheme tapers down rather than coming to an immediate end, this should help avoid any shocks in the property market. Ultimately, demand will not disappear overnight, and the pandemic has demonstrated once again that both homebuyers and investors see bricks and mortar as a safe bet during times of economic uncertainty.”

Paresh Raja, CEO of Market Financial Solutions said: “We are in the eye of a perfect storm, with multiple factors contributing to house prices increasing at a remarkable rate. The role of the stamp duty holiday is well documented. But we must also acknowledge that the pandemic has forced homeowners to reconsider their priorities, prompting many to list their properties and look for new homes. At the same time, the Bank of England’s record low base rate makes borrowing more affordable, while we are also seeing more investors gravitating towards real estate as a reliable asset class in the current climate.

“Given these multiple factors, not to mention the backlog of deals still waiting to be completed, there is every reason to believe prices will continue to increase in the second half of 2021, even if the rate of growth eases off, as was seemingly the case in April when compared to March. The stamp duty holiday might be about to begin its taper back to normal levels, but it would be foolish to assume this will reverse the past year’s progress.”

30 Sep 2020

Impact Of Covid-19 on UK Housebuilding

New Figures Show Impact Of Covid-19 On Housebuilding Rates

Quarterly housing starts and completions lowest since 2000

Industry calls for assistance to construction sector

Wednesday 30 September 2020 – The number of new build homes started or completed in England between April and June 2020 fell to their lowest levels since the year 2000as Covid-19 hit the construction industry, according to new figures published today.

The figures also show, despite Covid, a longer-term decline in housing starts and completions, with the number of homes started or completed in the year to June 2020 also showing a sharp fall.

According to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the indicators of new housing supply figures should be regarded as a leading indicator of overall supply.

They show:

The number of dwellings where building work has started on site was 15,930 in April to June 2020 – a 52% decrease when compared to the last quarter.  It also follows a recent trend of a slowdown in growth with six of the last six quarters showing a decrease.  Starts are 67% below their March quarter 2007 peak and are 7% below the previous trough in the March quarter of 2009. It is the lowest quarterly starts figure in the seasonally adjusted time series (which begins in the year 2000).

There were 121,630 estimated new build dwellings starts in the year to June 2020, a 26 per cent decrease compared to the year to June 2019.

The number of dwellings completed on site was 15,390 in April to June 2020.  This is a 62% decrease compared to the last quarter and 64% below their level in the same quarter a year ago. Completions are now 67% below their peak in the March quarter 2007 and 37% below the previous trough in March quarter 2013. It is the lowest quarterly completions figure in the seasonally adjusted time series (which begins in the year 2000).

An estimated 147,180 new build dwellings were completed in the year to June 2020, a decrease of 15 per cent compared to the year to June 2019.

Clive Docwra, managing director of property and construction consultancy McBains said:

“Today’s statistics bear out the huge impact that Covid-19 – and in particular the Spring lockdown – has had on housebuilding rates. 

“The government target of building a million new homes in the new five years was always going to be a steep challenge, but the pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to that ambition.

“The industry is now facing a double-whammy – trying to recover from the impact of Covid but also suffering from the uncertainty over a Brexit deal – with investors holding off putting money into new developments until the picture on a withdrawal agreement becomes clearer.

“The Government will no doubt point to its recent planning White Paper as the answer to building more homes, saying that it will mean ‘permission in principle’ will be given to developments on land designated for renewal to speed-up building, but the uncertainty and resulting fluctuating values driven by Covid and Brexit are reducing the incentive on developers to build in the short term.

“The government could address this by temporarily staggering or deferring Section 106 planning obligations – where developers are asked to provide contributions for community infrastructure – so that developers are encouraged to complete housebuilding projects as soon as possible.”

Recent UK housing news on e-architect:

New UK homes for the North and Midlands

13 August 2020

UK Residential Market News

Rental Sector Strength Comment

We post comment below in response to the RICS monthly residential market survey.

Elisabeth Kohlbach, CEO of Skwire comments: “Doom and gloom surrounding the news that the UK residential market is set for a ‘bust’ in the coming months overlooks a bright spot in a major segment of the residential market – the rental sector.

“The PRS sector is a growing part of the UK’s housing mix and the demand for this part of the market is not going away. Moreover, with lenders introducing a range of restrictions to cope with the spike in demand for mortgages following the announcement of stamp duty relief, many would-be buyers are struggling to get on the ladder and will no doubt turn to the rental market once again.

“While traditional destinations for BTR investors, such as London, may no longer be as attractive as remote workers flock to towns and cities beyond the capital, investors should look to the regions, which offer an exciting and untapped opportunity. Institutional investors should look beyond the traditional high density city-centre developments and seize the opportunity to tap into a rich pool of existing stock across the UK.”

7 August 2020

UK house prices rise in July

Halifax House Price Index for July 2020

Halifax has this morning released its House Price Index for July, showing that house prices have risen month-on-month and year-on-year in reaction to the Stamp Duty Land Tax holiday introduced earlier in the month.

While this is positive news for the sector, can this momentum be maintained?

Jamie Johnson, CEO of FJP Investment “Today’s House Price Index shows that the stamp duty holiday is having its desired effect, encouraging buyers and sellers to make a cautious return back to the property market. The release of pent-up demand is driving up house prices, slowly making up for the losses that were incurred at the height of the pandemic.

“The big question now is whether this initial burst in activity can be maintained over the next few months. Will house prices continue to grow; or will the momentum fizzle out? There is no clear answer at present. Nonetheless, today’s House Price Index makes the case for cautious optimism.

“Importantly, I do not believe the coronavirus has dampened investor demand for UK real estate. Property’s resilience and ability to quickly recover any losses in value in times of crises makes it a top asset class for both domestic and overseas buyers. Once there is greater certainty about the future of COVID-19 and the post-pandemic recovery, I anticipate buyer demand to return in full force.”

8 July 2020

UK Stamp Duty Changes

8 July 2020 Chancellor’s ‘mini budget’ for green jobs misses mark on transport and housing, says to CPRE

Commenting on the Chancellors ‘mini budget’, Tom Fyans, campaigns and policy director at CPRE, the countryside charity, said:

‘While we have seen promising starts on energy efficiency and shoring up rural hospitality businesses, the Chancellor has missed major opportunities to begin building back better when it comes to transport and housing investment.’

Read more at UK Summer Statement Response

8 July 2020 RIBA reacts to Chancellor’s ‘Plan for Jobs’

“The RIBA has long advocated for a ‘green’ post-COVID recovery, so I welcome the Chancellor’s efforts to put sustainability front and centre of today’s announcements.”

Read more at RIBA UK News

8 July 2020 UK Stamp Duty Changes

View from Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing on the stamp duty changes:

Kush Rawal, Director of Residential Investment from Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing comments: “We welcome the Chancellor’s stamp duty holiday, which makes shared ownership homes an even more attractive option for people looking to own their own home. Removing stamp duty from almost all initial share purchases means that key workers will be able to buy a shared ownership home with as little as two months of rent as their deposit.”

6 July 2020

Is ‘build build build’ best for England’s planning system?

Alister Scott, Professor of Environmental Geography and an expert in urban planning and infrastructure, writes for The Conversation on proposals to change the UK’s planning system.

English Planning System

18 Jun 2020

Timber Frame: Accommodating The Differential

With sales of timber homes and buildings heading towards £1bn in the next 12 months*, Andy Swift, sales and operations manager, UK & ROI for ISO-Chemie, considers sealant tapes for timber frame structures and accommodating differential movement:

New UK Timber Frame Building

3 Jun 2020

UK Architects welcome landmark ARCO Report

We post comments from Mark Rowe, principal at Penoyre & Prasad and Félicie Krikler, director at Assael Architecture in support of ARCO’s landmark report launched earlier today:

Mark Rowe, principal at Penoyre & Prasad, said: “This research highlights the shift towards a more collective way of living – integrating purpose-built accommodation with access to healthcare and facilities that can help maintain independence.” – read more at:

Too little, Too late? Housing for an ageing population

26 Mar 2020

Housebuilding Rates Fall – Even Before Coronavirus Impacts

Thursday 26th of March 2020 – The number of new build homes started and completed in the last quarter of 2019 fell below government targets, according to new government figures published today – and the industry says the coronavirus pandemic is set to impact these further.

According to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the new build dwellings figures should be regarded as a leading indicator of overall housing supply.

Today’s figures show that:

On a quarterly basis, new build dwelling starts in England were estimated at 34,260 (seasonally adjusted) in the latest quarter, an 11 per cent decrease compared to the previous 3 months and a 17 per cent decrease on a year earlier. Completions were estimated at 44,980 (seasonally adjusted), a 1 per cent decrease from the previous quarter and 3 per cent higher than a year ago.

Annual new build dwelling starts totalled 151,020 in the year to December 2019, a 10 per cent decrease compared with the year to December 2018. During the same period, completions totalled 178,800, an increase of 9 per cent compared with last year

All starts between October and December 2019 are now 99 per cent above the trough in the March quarter 2009 and 30 per cent below the March quarter 2007 peak. All completions between October and December 2019 are 78 per cent above the trough in the March quarter 2013 and 7 per cent below the March quarter 2007 peak.

Clive Docwra, Managing Director of leading construction consulting and design agency McBains, said:

“The government’s ambitious housebuilding target – delivering a million homes in the next five years – was always going to be extremely challenging, and the latest statistics bear this out. However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will mean this is now virtually impossible.

“Many sites are empty, supply chains have been disrupted and multi-million pounds worth of private investment is on hold for the foreseeable future. That will knock back housebuilding rates months, if not years.

“The government has already announced an unprecedented package of measures to help support business, but once we’ve turned the tide on the virus further help, such as tax incentives, will be needed to get the UK building again.”

Previously on e-architect:

24 Nov 2017

UK Housebuilding Policy

UK Government Approach to Housing Shortage – Budget Reaction

The UK Chancellor announced a raft of measures aimed at significantly increasing levels of home building and “reviving the British dream of home ownership”.

Key amongst the Chancellor’s statements were the abolition of Stamp Duty Land Tax on homes under £300k for First Time Buyers, £15.3 billion of new financial support for house building over the next five years (which includes money for the government to buy land as well as delivering supporting infrastructure) and more money to help SME builders.

This is in addition to the £10bn extra funding already announced for the English version of the Help to Buy shared equity scheme.

Some reactions to this week’s UK Budget from key built environment representatives:

“In essence the abolition of Stamp duty is the kind of sweeping move we needed to provide hope at the bottom end of the market and hopefully helping towards the aspirational 300K homes per year. As an employer, seeing younger architects get a foothold on the housing ladder is a strong hope and this is surely a welcome hand-out to bring the youth vote around for the Conservatives.

We would like to see more certainty on how the £44Bn figure to aid housebuilding will actually materialise into capital expenditure from Central or Local Government. The budget won’t solve the disconnect in planning, unless some of that cash is pumped into increasing resources in planning departments.”

Graham Hickson-Smith, Commercial Director, 3DReid

“It’s good to see the government taking the housing crisis seriously with the final quarter of the speech devoted to this one subject, an impressive commitment to extra spending of £44bn over five years and the headline grabbing finale of the reduction in stamp duty. The devil though will, as always be in the detail.

The lifting of HRA caps is good in principle but there are no details at all, while the £34m for skills training sounds like a drop in the ocean when we are faced with a huge likely loss of construction workers post-Brexit. Other measures announced include the review to be chaired by Oliver Letwin which may, helpfully, lay to rest the myth that land banking is a serious problem – most developers being concerned to turn over their capital as fast as possible rather than tie it up in dormant sites.

Finally there is the reduction in stamp duty for first time buyers, which will undoubtedly appeal to younger voters, but the same measure would probably be much more effective, economically, as an incentive to retired people to downsize, releasing under-occupied houses into the market.”

Richard Morton, Richard Morton Architects

“We really welcome the Chancellor’s moves to boost the supply of badly-needed new homes. Policies which aim to lower the cost of land and bring forward more building sites, particularly in urban areas well served by public transport, are good news – and preferable to policies which make it easier for some people to afford high house prices.

But all of this new housing needs to be sustainable, in environmental terms, and here the government’s policies are seriously lacking. It wants five new garden cities, but has said virtually nothing about what defines them.

The Budget has not addressed the critical need for green and low-carbon infrastructure and low-impact homes, not just on green fields, but everywhere. Nor has this budget addressed the need to upgrade and retrofit millions of our existing energy-inefficient homes.”

Sue Riddlestone OBE, Chief Executive of Bioregional

22 Jan 2016

UK Housing Expansion

Homebuilding in Great Britain

The Ministry of Defence has put 12 sites on the block to provide land for up to 15,000 new homes.

Government Defence Minister Mark Lancaster said the land sale was expected to raise £500m, which will be ploughed back into frontline defence budgets, reports https://ift.tt/3gu2l4R.

The sale is the first tranche of more ambitious plans to support the government’s ambition to build 160,000 homes by 2020.

The MOD, which owns around 1% of all UK land, plans to slash the size of its built estate by nearly a third, with its current holdings stretching to 452,000 hectares.

As part of that plan, the Ministry has committed to generating £1bn through land sales during this parliament and contributing up to 55,000 homes.

Imber in Wiltshire, on Salisbury Plain, England “was evacuated in 1943. The village, still classed as a civil parish, remains under control of the Ministry of Defence”: photograph © swns.com

Ministry of Defence Estate Sell-off MoD estate sell-off – tranche 1 12 sites placed on the market:

– Kneller Hall in Twickenham – Claro and Deverell barracks in Ripon – RAF sites Molesworth and Alconbury in Cambridgeshire, and Mildenhall in Suffolk. – Lodge Hill in Kent – Craigiehall in Edinburgh – HMS Nelson Wardroom in Portsmouth – Hullavington Airfield in Wiltshire – RAF Barnham in Suffolk – MOD Feltham in London

The MOD will announce further sites in due course, with a full list published in the Footprint Strategy later in 2016.

Link: https://ift.tt/3gs27v2

photograph © swns.com

British Houses

UK Government Housing Policy

UK Government Design Advisory Panel – New Housing Design Quality

Chair of RIBA Housing Group, Andy Von Bradsky, represented RIBA this week on the government’s Design Advisory Panel. The panel was set up under the coalition government and has been re-formed by the current government to advise on key policy issues, reports the RIBA.

The RIBA has welcomed the Prime Minister’s announcement that a Design Advisory Panel is being set up to ‘set the bar on housing design across the country’ and is looking forward to working with other panel members.

David Cameron announced the creation of the panel this week when he confirmed the go ahead for a new Starter Homes scheme, though the panel will inform government policies on housing design nationally.

Fleet Street Hill Housing in London by Peter Barber Architects: image from architect

The DCLG has already confirmed that panel members will include Sir Terry Farrell, classicist Sir Quinlan Terry and philosopher Roger Scruton alongside nominated representatives from the RIBA, RTPI, Design Council and Create Streets.

The panel will be chaired by ministers, so there are high hopes that it will have a genuine influence on policy. The Government says the panel will act as a sounding board, so that the housing and design industry can discuss policy issues with ministers and senior government officials. Its remit will cover:

Emerging housing and planning policy to ensure that good design is considered and embedded from the outset. Delivery of housing and planning policy to ensure that good design is achieved through Government’s programmes. Emerging industry issues and barriers to good design in housing delivery.

Inspiring design of Grand Large Housing Dunkirk: photo from ANMA/Agence Nicolas Michelin & Associés

‘We welcome the response from Government to the Farrell review and our own recommendation to have more design advice available to Government when shaping policy.’ said RIBA Head of External Affairs Anna Scott-Marshall.

‘It is encouraging that the Government, industry and other professionals will work in collaboration to ensure that we build the right kinds of homes in the right kinds of places.’ Farrell is also enthusiastic and said the panel has the potential to make a real difference.

‘It builds on the recommendations of the Farrell Review (https://ift.tt/3xpf4LF), which highlighted the need for more proactive planning and better placemaking as we attempt to address the housing crisis, with radically higher priority given to landscape, sustainability and the public realm.’

Stadthaus at 24 Murray Grove, London, by Waugh Thistleton – constructed entirely in timber, the nine-storey high-rise is the tallest timber residential building in the world

Stadthaus photo : Will Pryce Murray Grove Housing

Interesting link:

Imber village on Salisbury Plain under control of the Ministry of Defence

UK Housing Links:

Housing Crisis

New London Housing

British Homes

British House Designs

English Architecture:

English Architecture Designs – chronological list

Location: UK

Contemporary British Homes

Recent British Home Designs

Black House, Kent, South East England Architect: AR Design Studio image courtesy of architects Black House in Kent

A House for Essex, Essex, South East England Design: FAT Architecture and Grayson Perry photograph : Jack Hobhouse A House for Essex

Balancing Barn, Suffolk, South East England Design: MVRDV photo : Living Architecture Balancing Barn Suffolk

Hurst House, Buckinghamshire, Southern England Design: John Pardey Architects with Ström Architects photo : Andy Matthews Buckinghamshire Property

Contemporary North European Homes

Recent North European Houses

Danish Houses

German Houses

French Houses

Comments / photos for the New UK Housing Shortage – Current British Housebuilding page welcome

The post New UK Housing: British Housebuilding appeared first on e-architect.

[aggretsukoguide]

Aggretsuko Cheats

Aggretsuko Guide

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Don't reinvent the wheel by writing the same boilerplate code again and again. Instead, focus your time and energy on what makes your app unique, and let the android architecture components and other recommended libraries handle the repetitive boilerplate. That way, users can enjoy your app's functionality even when their device is in offline mode. Remember that not all of your users enjoy constant, high-speed connectivity. Whenever your app needs to access this piece of data, it should always originate from this single source of truth.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

My editors are forever asking me to take the long Twitter threads I write and turn them into articles here at FiveThirtyEight. So I’m actually going to give that a try!

What follows are some follow-up thoughts on our election model, which was originally composed in the form of a V E R Y L O N G tweetstorm that I never published. (See if you can guess where the 240-character breaks would have been.)

In this thread … err, article … I’ll try to walk you through my thought process on a few elements of our model and respond to a few thoughtful critiques I’ve seen elsewhere. Before you dive in, it may help to read our summary of the state of the race, or at least skim our very detailed methodology guide.

But the basic starting point for a probabilistic, poll-driven model ought to be this: Is polling in August a highly reliable way to predict the outcome in November?

The short answer is “no.”

Polling in August is somewhat predictive. You’d much rather be ahead than behind. But there can still be some very wild swings.

You can see that in the daily threads that Nathaniel Rakich, one of our elections analysts, puts together. Here is what a national polling average would have looked like in elections dating back to 1976:

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 84 days until E-Day:

2020: Biden+8.3 2016: Clinton+6.6 2012: Obama+0.5 2008: Obama+2.6 2004: Kerry+2.5 2000: Bush+10.0 1996: Clinton+11.3 1992: Clinton+20.1 1988: Dukakis+5.6 1984: Reagan+16.0 1980: Reagan+22.1 1976: Carter+26.6

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) August 11, 2020

OK, I cheated a bit. I’m using a version that Nathaniel published last week, partly because this was the exact moment in the campaign when Michael Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic nominee, started to blow his large lead, which he never regained. Still, there’s some wild stuff there! John Kerry led at this point in 2004. George W. Bush had a 10-point lead at this point in the 2000 race, but, as we know, he didn’t win the popular vote that year. In other cases, the leading candidate won, but the margin was off by as much as 20 points (Jimmy Carter in 1976).

Now, as I wrote last week, there are some caveats here. Several of these polling averages were taken while one or both candidates were experiencing convention bonuses, and although there are ways to correct for those, every time you correct for something so your model fits the past data better, you raise the possibility that you’re overfitting the data and that your model won’t be as accurate as claimed when applied to situations where you don’t already know the outcome.

There are also decent arguments that polling averages have become more stable in recent years. In that case, the wild fluctuations in the polls from, say, 1976 or 1988 might not be as relevant.

Our model actually agrees with these theories, up to a point! The fact that voters are more polarized now (more polarization means fewer swing voters, which means less volatility) is encoded into our model as part of our “uncertainty index,” for instance.

But we think it’s pretty dangerous to go all in on these theories and assume that poll volatility is necessarily much lower than it was before. For one thing, the theory is not based on a ton of data. Take the five most recent elections, for instance. The 20041 and 2012 elections featured highly stable polling — 2012 especially so. But 2000 and 2016 (!) did not, and 2008 election polling was not especially stable, either. Small sample sizes are already an issue in election forecasting, so it seems risky to come to too many firm conclusions about polling volatility based on what amounts to two or three examples.

Meanwhile, other people have pointed out that the most recent two presidents, Trump and Barack Obama, have had highly stable approval ratings. But the president just before them, George W. Bush, did not. His approval rating went through some of the wildest fluctuations ever, in fact, even though polarization was also fairly high from 2000 to 2008.

That said, polls have been stable so far this year. Indeed, that’s another factor that our uncertainty index accounts for. But don’t get too carried away extrapolating from this stability. Case in point: Polls were extremely stable throughout most of the Democratic primaries … but when the voting started, we saw huge swings from the Iowa caucuses through Super Tuesday. Poll volatility tends to predict future volatility, but only up to a point.

Remember, too, that voters haven’t yet been exposed to the traditional set pieces of the campaign, namely the conventions and the debates, which are often associated with higher volatility.

Now, suppose that despite all the weirdness to come in the general election campaign, Biden just plows through, leads by 6 to 9 points the whole way … and then wins by that amount on Nov. 3? If that happens, then we’ve got more evidence for the hypothesis that elections have become more stable, even when voters are confronted with a lot of surprising news.

But, crucially, we don’t have that evidence yet. So some of the models that are more confident in Biden’s chances seem to be begging the question, presuming that polls will remain stable when I’m not sure we can say that yet.

Then there’s the issue of COVID-19. Sometimes — though people may not say this outright — you’ll get a sense that critics think it’s sort of cheating for a model to account for COVID-19 because it’s never happened before, so it’s too ad hoc to adjust for it now.

I don’t really agree. Models should reflect the real world, and COVID-19 is a big part of the real world in 2020. Given the choice between mild ad-hockery and ignoring COVID-19 entirely, I think mild ad-hockery is better.

However, I also think there are good ways to account for COVID-19 without being particularly ad hoc about it. If you’re designing a model, whenever you encounter an outlier or an edge case or a new complication, the question you ask yourself should be, “What lessons can I draw from this that generalize well?” That is: Are there things you can do to handle the edge case well that will also make your model more robust overall?

As an aside, when testing models on historical data I think people should pay a lot of attention to edge cases and outliers. For instance, I pay a lot of attention to how our model is handling Washington, D.C. Why Washington? Well, if you take certain shortcuts — don’t account for the fact that vote shares are constainted between 0 and 100 percent of the vote — you might wind up with impossible results, like Biden winning 105 percent of the vote there. Or when designing an NBA model, I may pay a lot of attention to a player like Russell Westbrook, who has long caused issues for statistical systems. I don’t like taking shortcuts in models; I think they come back to bite you later in ways you don’t necessarily anticipate. But if you can handle the outliers well, you’ve probably built a mathematically elegant model that works well under ordinary circumstances, too.

But back to COVID-19: What this pandemic encouraged us to do was to think even more deeply about the sources of uncertainty in our forecast. That led to the development of the aforementioned uncertainty index, which has eight components (described in more depth in our methodology post):

The number of undecided voters in national polls. More undecided voters means more uncertainty.

The number of undecided plus third-party voters in national polls. More third-party voters means more uncertainty.

Polarization, as measured elsewhere in the model, which is based on how far apart the parties are in roll call votes cast in the U.S. House. More polarization means less uncertainty since there are fewer swing voters.

The volatility of the national polling average. Volatility tends to predict itself, so a stable polling average tends to remain stable.

The overall volume of national polling. More polling means less uncertainty.

The magnitude of the difference between the polling-based national snapshot and the fundamentals forecast. A wider gap means more uncertainty.

The standard deviation of the component variables used in the FiveThirtyEight economic index. More economic volatility means more overall uncertainty in the forecast.

The volume of major news, as measured by the number of full-width New York Times headlines in the past 500 days, with more recent days weighted more heavily. More news means more uncertainty.

Previous versions of our model had basically just accounted for factors 1 and 2 (undecided and third-party voters), so there are quite a few new factors here. And indeed, factors 7 and 8 are very high thanks to COVID-19 and, therefore, boost our uncertainty measure. However, we’re also considering several factors for the first time (like polarization and poll volatility) that reduce uncertainty.

In the end, though, our model isn’t even saying that the uncertainty is especially high this year. The uncertainty index would have been considerably higher in 1980, for instance. Rather, this year’s uncertainty is about average, which means that the historical accuracy of polls in past campaigns is a reasonably good guide to how accurate they are this year. That seems to me like a pretty good gut check.

It might seem counterintuitive that uncertainty would be about average in such a weird year, but accounting for multiple types of uncertainty means that some can work to balance each other out. We don’t have a large sample of elections to begin with; depending on how you count, somewhere between 10 and 15 past presidential races had reasonably frequent polling. So your default position might be that you should use all of that data to calibrate your estimates of uncertainty, rather than to try to predict under which conditions polls might be more or less reliable. If you are going to try to fine-tune your margin of error, though, then we think you need to be pretty exhaustive about thinking through sources of uncertainty. Accounting for greater polarization but not the additional disruptions brought about by the pandemic would be a mistake, we think; likewise, so would be considering the pandemic but not accounting for polarization.

I’ve also seen some objections to the particular variables we’ve included in the uncertainty index. For instance, not everybody likes that our way of specifying “the volume of major news” is based on New York Times headlines. I agree that this isn’t ideal. The New York Times takes its headlining choices very seriously, but as we learned from thumbing through years of its headlines, it also makes some idiosyncratic choices.

However, I don’t think anybody would say there hasn’t been a ton of important news this year, much of which could continue to reverberate later in the race. Nor should people doubt that poll volatility is often news-driven. Polls generally don’t move on their own, but rather in response to major political events (such as debates) and news events (such as wars starting or ending). Even before COVID-19, we were trying to incorporate some of this logic into our polling averages by, for instance, having them move more aggressively after debates.

Other people have suggested that we ought to have accounted for incumbency in the uncertainty index, on the theory that when incumbents are running for reelection, they are known commodities, which should reduce volatility. That’s a smart suggestion, and something I wish I’d thought to look at, although after taking a very brief glance at it now, I’m not sure how much it would have mattered. The 1980 and 1992 elections, which featured incumbents, were notably volatile, for instance.

So if it’s too soon to be all that confident that Biden will win based on the polls — not that a 71 percent of winning the Electoral College (and an 82 percent chance of winning the popular vote) are anything to sneeze at — is there anything else that might justify that confidence?

In our view, not really.

I’ll be briefer on these points, since we covered them at length in our introductory feature. But forecasts based on economic “fundamentals” — which have never been as accurate as claimed — are a mess this year. Depending on which variables you look at (gross domestic product or disposable income?) and over what time period (third quarter or second quarter?) you could predict anything from the most epic Biden landslide in the history of elections to a big Trump win.

Furthermore, FiveThirtyEight’s version of a fundamentals model actually shows the race as a tie — it expects the race to tighten given the high polarization and projected economic improvement between now and November. So although we don’t weigh the fundamentals all that much, they aren’t exactly a reason to be more confident in Biden.

What about Trump’s approval rating? It’s been poor for a long time, obviously. And some other models do use it as part of their fundamentals calculation. But I have trouble with that for two reasons. First, the idea behind the fundamentals is that they’re … well, fundamental, meaning they’re the underlying factors (like economic conditions and political polarization) that drive political outcomes. An approval rating, on the other hand, should really be the result of those conditions.

Second, especially against a well-known opponent like Biden, approval ratings are largely redundant with the polls. That is to say, if Trump’s net approval rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) is -12 or -13 in polls of registered and likely voters, then his being down 8 or 9 points in head-to-head polls against Biden is pretty much exactly what you’d expect. (Empirically, though, the spread in approval ratings are a bit wider than the spreads in head-to-head polls. A candidate with a -20 approval rating, like Carter had at the end of the 1980 campaign, wouldn’t expect to lose the election by 20 points.)

Also, models that include a lot of highly correlated variables can have serious problems, and approval ratings and head-to-head polls are very highly correlated. I’m not saying you couldn’t work your way around these issues, but unless you were very careful, they could lead to underestimates of out-of-sample errors and other problems.

One last topic: the role of intuition when building an election model. To the largest extent possible, when I build election models, I try to do it “blindfolded,” by which I mean I make as many decisions as possible about the structure of the model before seeing what the model would say about the current year’s election. That’s not to say we don’t kick the tires on a few things at the end, but it’s pretty minimal, and it’s mostly to look at bugs and edge cases rather than to change our underlying assumptions. The process is designed to limit the role my priors play when building a model.

Sometimes, though, when we do our first real model run, the results come close to my intuition anyway. But this year they didn’t. I was pretty sure we’d have Biden with at least a 75 percent chance of winning and perhaps as high as a 90 percent chance. Instead, our initial tests had Biden with about a 70 percent chance, and he stayed there until we launched the model.

Why was my intuition wrong? I suspect because it was conditioned on recent elections where polls were fairly stable — and where the races were also mostly close, making Biden’s 8-point lead look humongous by comparison. If I had vividly remembered Dukakis blowing his big lead in 1988, when I was 10 years old, maybe my priors would have been different.

But as I said earlier, I’m not necessarily sure we can expect the polls to be quite so stable this time around. And when you actually check how accurate summer polling has been historically, it yields some pretty wide margins of error.

[deniscollins]

Willy Wonka and the Medical Software Factory

If you were a 75 year old CEO of Epic Systems, a $2.7 billion medical software company, would you require that your successor must be an executive who already works for the company, be a software developer, and  keep Epic privately held: (1) Yes, (2) No? Why? What are the ethics underlying your decision?

In the farm country of southern Wisconsin, 12 miles from Madison, is one of the nation’s biggest tech companies — and almost certainly the quirkiest. The woman who controls it is a septuagenarian coding savant, its campus contains a human-size rabbit hole and an elevator to hell, and in all probability your personal medical records are on servers running its software.

Epic Systems is a health care services provider with $2.7 billion in annual revenue. Its mathematician chief executive, Judy Faulkner, is a billionaire recluse who hosts P.T. Barnum-esque gatherings for clients. Those clients — big hospitals and health systems around the United States and more than a dozen overseas markets — are served by customer-service representatives known as BFFs. Every month, employees are compelled to gather in a subterranean chamber for two-and-a-half-hour staff meetings that have been likened to a megachurch experience. Workers are discouraged from ordering business materials on Amazon or living more than 45 minutes away from the office, in order to shorten commutes and keep Epic’s wealth in the local economy.

Epic’s software is ubiquitous in doctors’ offices and operating rooms, and companies like Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet regularly hoover up its young engineers. Yet most people outside of the Madison environs, I’d be confident to say, have never heard of the company.

I certainly hadn’t. I cover Wall Street, not health care or technology, and when I came across the privately held Epic this year I was consumed with questions. Who was this publicity-shy yet spectacle-loving C.E.O., and how did her theme-park sensibility coexist with the mundanity of health care billing protocols? Was Epic’s odd culture a magnet for talent and clients, or was it an indulgence that kept the company from growing even bigger? In August, I traveled to Wisconsin to see what this 1,100-acre Midwestern behemoth might be hiding.

Cookies and tree houses

When I arrived in Epic’s hometown, Verona, two beaming receptionists at the Fairfield Inn tried to offer me something called the “Epic discount.” When I said I couldn’t accept anything of value from the company, they clarified that the special rate was a gesture of gratefulness from the hotel, on account of the huge proportion of guests who come to do business with Epic. It is by far the dominant player in Verona, where the population of 10,600 is comparable to the company’s head count of 9,800.

Epic’s headquarters were a short drive away, down a meandering road through countryside dotted with Queen Anne’s lace and farm equipment. I drove past a giant Tin Man, the first indication of the campus’s fairy-tale aesthetic, and into guest parking, in one of the campus’s few aboveground lots.

There was virtually no security. I walked past a sculpture of Humpty Dumpty, set on a wall and typing away on an Epic laptop, past the warning against carrying concealed weapons (Wisconsin allows them in most public venues), and into reception. I was asked to sign an old-fashioned guest book, given a “Hello! My name is” sticker and a few pages of directions, and told I could wander the campus’s 25 buildings and numerous footpaths on my own.

The design theme was childish even by the standards of technology start-ups, where ball pits and scooters are common. I paused at the Cavey Den, a hollowed-out treehouse with stumps for seats and children’s books, then rocked on a rocking horse and ate a cookie from a jar, wondering what time was set aside for naps. There was a long series of clay slabs with handprint impressions from longtime employees, and walls and walls of art sourced from Wisconsin-area artists: a dragon perched in an iron bird cage; expanses of blue and purple stained glass; a clock featuring manicured poodles and Cupid; an old-timey circus ad painted on canvas.

The diversions went beyond art. At the Black Dragon cafe, which was next to an informal band-practice area, a sandwich board advertised oatmeal for 75 cents and bacon for $1. Along the Indiana Jones tunnel, decorated with vines and a golden idol, the sound of dripping water and roaring animals played in a constant loop. A conference room named after a Star Wars planet was reached via a rickety swinging bridge. All around me, young workers in shorts and band T-shirts hurried past. (The company’s dress code is that when visitors are on campus, wear clothes.)

The next morning, I woke up feeling off: a throat infection I’d been treating with antibiotics seemed to be getting worse. Verona, while long on breweries, day cares, artisanal pizza and jumbo mortgages, lacks an urgent-care clinic, so I drove into nearby west Madison for some attention.

The clinic I found was, naturally, running on an Epic system that logged me in, took my information and tracked my health statistics. The nurse’s assistant who saw me had visited Epic during her training, as do many medical professionals who work with its technology as part of their jobs.

Epic’s reach is, well, epic. Its systems contain records for more than 50 percent of United States medical patients. It is a major software provider to big health systems like Memorial Sloan Kettering, the Mayo Clinic, Cedars-Sinai and University of Utah Health, as well as scores of doctor’s offices and smaller clinics. Its applications handle functions both complex and straightforward, from the emergency room to the bills sent to patient homes. They calibrate drug dosages, monitor vital signs, match blood types, anticipate infection symptoms, and keep tumor measurements. Epic software is elemental to everything from transplants to cesarean sections.

Once you know what Epic does in health care, you see it everywhere. When I left the urgent-care center, diagnosed with a gnarly case of strep, the summary printout I was given was branded on one corner with Epic’s insignia.

Coders who don’t mind a little blood and gore

The next day, back at company headquarters, I sat in one of the less Montessori-style conference rooms with Steve Dickmann, 72, the chief administrative officer. He became animated when explaining some of the more functional, less fantastical features of the space. “The whole campus is designed to promote productivity, creativity, comfort,” he said.

There was a philosophy behind everything. All employees have offices, because studies show that workers in open floor plans get interrupted frequently. Stairs promote socialization, but buildings can’t be more than three stories, because workers are reluctant to climb more than a flight or two. Every conference room must have windows so that visitors don’t feel hemmed in during days and days of training.

The overriding mission, Mr. Dickmann said, was to ensure the safety of patients at facilities that use Epic software. If health care programmers make mistakes, he said, “bad things can happen.”

Epic’s coders often leave campus to embed in operating and recovery rooms, where they watch nurses ripping the tops off blood bags and surgeons opening up people’s chest cavities. It’s an experience that young engineers are unlikely to get at, say, Facebook or Snap, working on algorithms that tailor ads to demographic groups or insert rainbow vomit into photographs.

Programmers regularly faint at the sight of beating hearts, scalpels and bodily fluids. “There were people that would pass out in the hallway” of hospitals, said Aaron Webb, who worked at Epic for 10 years as a software developer. He watched “hundreds” of surgeries, often with his team in tow, before moving to Seattle, where he now works for a business that matches companies with storage space. “But if you can’t understand what your users are going through, you’re not going to design a good system.”

Epic works its more than 5,000 programmers hard. Middle-of-the-night technical crises, stress-related illness and employees weeping from exhaustion in airport lounges are not uncommon, say former employees. Long hours are expected. One piece of company lore has it that during a construction project, Ms. Faulkner questioned a plan to install motion-activated light switches, noting that employees might be sitting still at their desks for such long stretches that they’d frequently find themselves in the dark. (The sensors were installed, and she was proved correct.)

“The volume of work at Epic, regardless of what role you’re in, is very high,” said Jacob Lewis, who was a technical writer at Epic before he left in 2014. He later sued the company over unpaid overtime. His case, a class-action suit that hinged on the obligation to sign an employee agreement that forced workers into arbitration, rather than litigation, was combined with similar cases and was heard by the Supreme Court last year. The workers lost.

This combination of chaotic, stressful client visits and isolating, mundane office work might explain the company’s Disney dimension. Epic is a place where wedding music plays on a campuswide public-announcement system when new clients are signed. Dry-cleaning services are found at the “New York Sock Exchange.” Employees can hurtle down an “Alice in Wonderland” slide into a room with miniature furniture. They are encouraged to visit a conference room encased by waterfalls and a shark pond when in need of inspiration. (The shark is fake.) Internal awards for outstanding work are named after Jack Bauer and MacGyver.

The benefits of disattention

A few hours after my sit-down with Mr. Dickmann, I was granted an audience with Ms. Faulkner herself. We met in her personal conference room, a place of warm earth tones, steaming hot tea and personal memorabilia, including a copy of the prayer “Desiderata” with faux-burned margins mounted on a wall. “I think we save many, many, many lives a year,” she told me.

Ms. Faulkner, who bears the same shy, distracted demeanor as Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, was wearing a long-sleeved T-shirt and a crocheted cardigan. She is soft-spoken and literal in conversation. But once a year, at her annual client meeting, she dresses up as the Mad Hatter or a wizard and gives an inspirational talk to an audience of thousands. This year, the theme was camp: She dressed up as a park ranger and told a story about catching frogs with her bare hands on a hiking trip and  eating them for dinner.

Born in 1943, Ms. Faulkner said she taught herself to code in a week, using a Fortran textbook, during her undergraduate years at Dickinson College. As a graduate student in computer science at the University of Wisconsin, she conceived a prototype for Epic while sitting in her living room one day in the mid-1970s.

“The sun was shining, I was disattentive, I was just sitting there and suddenly it all came to me: Here’s how you build it,” she said. “And I remember running into the kitchen, grabbing a pad of paper and just writing code, code, code, code,” she said. While she went on to teach computer science for a period, she kept coming back to the idea, and in 1979, in a Madison basement, she founded what would become Epic: a start-up called Human Services Computing. Today, some of Epic’s foundational programming still bears Ms. Faulkner’s initials.

Ms. Faulkner is now 75, and over the last four years, the company she built has grown an average of 14 percent a year, according to revenue figures it shared with The Times. She has instructed her heirs (she has three children) and stock-holding employees, who together constitute a majority of the company’s equity holders, that they must always vote their shares in favor of keeping Epic private. They must also ensure that Epic is run by an executive who already works for the company, and that that person is a software developer.

That decision-making may not occur for a while. It’s “more likely that I’d die than that I’d retire,” she said.

We talked about her “10 commandments” and other principles for doing business, which are hung in most public spaces around campus and discussed in detail at the monthly staff meetings. Ms. Faulkner said that staying private ensures the company can make decisions without public shareholder pressure — such as forgoing  revenue when a client’s facilities are damaged by severe weather and it can’t afford to pay software maintenance fees for a time. Avoiding both debt and budgets is another Faulkner goal. But she leaves the enforcement of these principles to lieutenants, preferring to focus on software and customer relations.

“I look at our financial information maybe for a minute a month,” she said.

One criticism that has dogged Epic is that its software sometimes won’t connect with that of competitors, meaning that patient information can’t move around as seamlessly as it should. The company has chipped away at the problem in recent years, but much remains to be done.

“The problem isn’t the lack of effort, it’s the lack of standards,” said Jim Turnbull, the chief information officer for the University of Utah system and a longtime Epic client. “Until the federal government and all the vendors recognize that we have too many standards, I just don’t think it’s going to be possible to completely interoperate,” he said, using the industry term for connectivity.

The day after meeting with Ms. Faulkner, I took a final tour of Epic with its head of media relations, Meghan Roh, who was hired in 2017 as the first person ever to occupy that position. We went down a slide connecting the ground floor of a building called Heaven, with a white interior, to a lower level with an elevator whose floors were marked Devil, Satan, Lucifer, Beelzebub and Mephistopheles. (When you press a button, you hear audio of an imaginary demon saying, “Please come in. It’s nice and toasty in here.”)

Underground is also where you’ll find Epic’s auditorium. Built partly to preserve the sightlines on campus and minimize water and waste runoff, the gathering place hosts the Verona high school’s annual graduation ceremony as well as Epic’s monthly staff meetings, at which attendance is required. On the way in, employees are served popcorn and coffee, an homage to an earlier point when the company used movie theaters for large meetings, and shown a reel of pictures of recent staff weddings, newborn babies and beloved pets. Then they hear presentations on new products and priorities, matters of company philosophy, and new “armies” being formed for employees to brainstorm software-based solutions to epidemics like the opioid crisis and maternal morbidity.

Workers who fully commit to Epic — who survive the long hours and grisly sights — are treated to a remarkable perk. After five years, they get a sabbatical, including round-trip airfare for two to travel somewhere they’ve never been for a month, plus a per diem for meals and lodging. (They get another sabbatical after 10 years, 15, and so on.)

Epic is constantly scanning the undergraduate ranks for new hires. Rather than sticking to engineer incubator schools like M.I.T. or Stanford, it scouts institutions like Carleton College in Minnesota and Clemson University in South Carolina. Candidates take online tests to gauge their problem-solving skills and, if they pass muster, are whisked to Madison for an on-campus interview and tour of the area.

Once on board, employees take a multiweek training course that includes basic business etiquette as well as Epic-specific skill building. Officials preach a flat structure in which it’s never O.K. to turn down colleagues for help. They also teach a tactic called “badgering” — remember, it’s Wisconsin — or the art of being persistent but not maddening.

Epic’s broad recruiting strategy and perks help draw people in, but over time, it’s the cultures of both Wisconsin and Epic that help keep people there.

“The only reason I left Epic was so that my family could move out West,” said Mr. Webb, the former Epic programmer. “Every day was different. And it was fun. And just being able to go see the impact you were having, that was really, really cool.”

[ultrasfcb-blog]

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia – together with

Clockwise from prime left: Hirving Lozano, Andre Silva, Breel Embolo, Youri Tielemans, Maxi Gomez and Cristian Pavon are among the many younger stars to look at on the 2018 World Cup

World Cup 2018 on the BBC Host: Russia Dates: 14 June – 15 July Dwell: Protection throughout BBC TV, BBC Radio and BBC Sport web site with additional protection on Pink Button, Related TVs and cellular app.

We already know concerning the superstars who might gentle up the 2018 Fifa World Cup, however what concerning the subsequent era of expertise?

Few of the 736 gamers who might function in Russia could be classed as complete unknowns however there’ll nonetheless be some unfamiliar faces trying to announce themselves on the worldwide stage.

Right here, BBC Sport’s TV and radio World Cup commentators pick the 15 younger gamers from outdoors the Premier League who’re price watching out for this summer time.

1. Hirving Lozano (Mexico)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands)

Lozano was given his nickname ‘El Chucky’ as a toddler, when he would conceal underneath the mattress and attempt to frighten different boys. He hit 4 targets in Mexico’s qualifying marketing campaign and was named considered one of Fifa’s younger stars of 2017

Steve Wilson: With 19 targets and 11 assists in 34 video games, Lozano’s statistics in PSV’s Eredivisie-winning season – his first marketing campaign in Europe – present the potential he confirmed at Pachuca is now being absolutely realised.

Having performed his approach into Mexico’s Confederations Cup group final summer time, he scored in a 2-1 win over Russia earlier than the semi-final defeat by Germany. His brace in a 3-Three attract Belgium in November was one other headline-grabbing efficiency from a ahead who can play on the precise or left of a central striker.

Jonathan Pearce: Lozano is a superb, fiery prospect and will effectively gentle up these finals – he has searing tempo and likes to roll in off the left to attain along with his favoured proper foot.

In addition to his targets at membership degree, he has seven strikes in 27 senior internationals for Mexico, which is an effective return for a younger participant.

There is a catch – he was despatched off twice for PSV this season and for Mexico on the 2016 Olympics – however he appears decided to make an influence a method or one other.

2. Cristian Pavon (Argentina)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: Boca Juniors (Argentina)

Pavon loves to chop in from the left on to his proper foot and is exhibiting a promising understanding with Lionel Messi. Argentina coach Jorge Sampaoli says: ‘Cristian is a participant who has very particular traits for speaking with Messi. He goes to area, he’s providing on a regular basis and he has an vital dynamic’

Man Mowbray: With such a stellar checklist of names forward of him within the Argentina facet, the Boca Juniors prospect may not get any recreation time in Russia – but when he does get off the bench it is an opportunity to indicate he’ll quickly belong in the most effective firm.

Pavon appears to be like set for a transfer to Benfica, following the European path trodden by Angel di Maria – an apparent participant for comparability, and one who may quickly make approach for the younger pretender.

3. Aleksei Miranchuk (Russia)

Age: 22 Place: Attacking midfielder Membership: Lokomotiv Moscow (Russia)

Miranchuk, who can play on the precise wing or up entrance, scored seven targets to assist Lokomotiv Moscow win the Russian Premier League for the primary time since 2004. His twin brother Anton is a midfielder

Conor McNamara: I’m commentating on the opening recreation of the World Cup, so I have been holding an in depth eye on Russia’s build-up. There’s a number of strain on the hosts, who will probably be hoping Miranchuk steps up as one of many stars. He may very well be their inventive inspiration.

Take heed to McNamara’s commentary of Russia v Saudi Arabia (kick-off 16:00 BST) on BBC Radio 5 dwell on Thursday, 14 June.

Steve Wilson: Russia are determined for somebody to galvanise the group to no less than a decent exhibiting as hosts.

That somebody might but be the long-lauded Aleksandr Golovin, who went to Euro 2016 with nice expectations that appeared solely to show a burden – or it could be the marginally older Miranchuk, who has simply helped Lokomotiv win the Russian title together with twin brother Anton, who can be within the squad.

An attacking midfielder with an eye fixed for purpose, Aleksei has developed effectively since his transient look in final summer time’s Confederations Cup.

4. Breel Embolo (Switzerland)

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Schalke 04 (Germany)

Embolo was born in Yaounde, the capital of Cameroon, and lived there till he was 5. After a yr in France, he moved to Basel and has had a Swiss passport since 2014. He’s a favorite of the Switzerland followers, who sing ‘Oh Embolo! Oh Embolo!’ (to the tune of ‘The Lion Sleeps Tonight’)

Ian Dennis: I first noticed Embolo play 4 years in the past when his FC Basel facet beat Liverpool within the Champions League. As a young person, he was uncooked however had electrifying tempo to hassle defenders.

He left Switzerland in the summertime of 2016 to maneuver to Schalke however an ankle damage that October ended his first season in Germany prematurely.

Embolo nonetheless wants so as to add targets to his recreation however he is a strong striker and nonetheless solely 21.

5. Renato Tapia, Peru

Age: 22 Place: Midfielder, centre-half, right-back Membership: Feyenoord (Netherlands)

Tapia left Peru aged 16 for a trial with Liverpool in 2011 after they noticed him within the World Youth Cup however, in an interview he gave to Dutch journal Voetbal Worldwide in 2016, he claimed the Reds instructed him he was too brief – regardless of him being 6ft tall on the time. He has now grown an additional half-inch.

Radio 5 dwell soccer correspondent John Murray: Renato Tapia is a rising star, and a flexible one too. He has been schooled in Dutch soccer since he moved to Europe to hitch FC Twente in 2013 and is now at Feyenoord. Regardless of his age, he is a crucial a part of a Peru group going to the World Cup with kind and confidence – and is seen as a future captain of Los Incas.

6. Sardar Azmoun (Iran)

Age: 23 Place: Striker Membership: Rubin Kazan (Russia)

Often called ‘the Iranian Messi’ – for his dribbling capability – and ‘the Iranian Zlatan’ for his high quality within the air, Azmoun was closely linked with Liverpool in January 2016 however a switch by no means materialised

Alistair Bruce-Ball: Azmoun scored 11 targets in 14 video games in qualifying and has a implausible strike fee of 23 targets in 32 worldwide appearances.

Iran are superb defensively – Carlos Queiroz’s facet stored 9 consecutive clear sheets of their closing spherical of qualification video games – however, if they will progress in Russia, they should rating with the few possibilities that come their approach. Loads of that will probably be right down to Azmoun.

7. Achraf Hakimi (Morocco)

Age: 19 Place: Full-back Membership: Actual Madrid (Spain)

Hakimi was born in Getafe, Spain, however each his mother and father are from Morocco and he made his debut for the Atlas Lions on the age of 17, earlier than he made his senior debut for Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: At 19, Hakimi already has winner’s medals from the Membership World Cup and Champions League. He performed at right-back in each Actual’s matches towards Spurs within the latter competitors this season – and made 17 first-team appearances in all – however might begin at left-back for Morocco in Russia.

Former Actual boss Zinedine Zidane preferred him a lot he was completely happy to promote Brazil worldwide Danilo to Manchester Metropolis. Sufficient stated.

8. Andre Silva (Portugal)

Age: 22 Place: Striker Membership: AC Milan (Italy)

Silva, who has scored 12 targets in 22 video games for Portugal, joined AC Milan from Porto for £33m in the summertime of 2017

Conor McNamara: Silva continues to be discovering his approach at AC Milan and was primarily used in its place final season in Serie A, however he was given extra of an opportunity within the Europa League and scored six targets in eight begins in that competitors in 2017-18.

To this point in his worldwide profession he has averaged a purpose each three photographs, and apparently Wolves and Huddersfield are desirous about bringing him to the Premier League subsequent season.

Wherever he finally ends up enjoying his membership soccer, Cristiano Ronaldo has already stated Silva could be his long-term successor as Portugal’s foremost goalscorer.

9. Rodrigo Bentancur, Uruguay

Age: 20 Place: Midfielder Membership: Juventus (Italy)

Juve provisionally signed Bentancur in 2015 as a part of the deal that noticed Carlos Tevez transfer to Boca Juniors. He ultimately joined the Italian facet for £8m in July 2017

John Murray: Good issues are anticipated of this tall, two-footed midfielder who has simply completed his first season with Juventus and solely made his senior worldwide debut in October 2017.

I am anticipating Uruguay to do effectively and, in the event that they do, Bentancur might effectively get his probability to shine.

10. Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Iran

Age: 24 Place: Striker Membership: AZ Alkmaar (Netherlands)

Jahanbakhsh scored 21 targets and made 12 assists for AZ Alkmaar and have become the primary footballer from the Center East or Asia to complete as prime scorer in a serious European league

Man Mowbray: It could be a shock if Carlos Queiroz can information Iran out of the group stage above both Spain or his native Portugal, however in AZ striker Alireza Jahanbakhsh he has a participant of high quality who’s being linked with a transfer to the Premier League.

Positive, the Eredivisie is not the highest degree today, however to complete as prime scorer continues to be no imply feat – he is following some main gamers to the honour.

A purpose towards one or each of the large weapons in Group B may not get Iran by way of to the final 16, nevertheless it may get his Dutch membership facet a number of extra million euros later this summer time.

11. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Serbia

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Lazio (Italy)

Nicknamed the Sergeant, Milinkovic-Savic stands 6ft 4in tall. His mom was knowledgeable basketball participant and tall genes run within the household – his youthful brother Vanja is 6ft 8in is a goalkeeper who signed for Manchester United in 2014 however left after failing to safe a piece allow.

Steve Wilson: Born in Spain, Milinkovic-Savic has been an important success for Lazio – scoring 14 targets from midfield final season – and is reported to be on Manchester United’s purchasing checklist.

The 23-year-old has received each the Below-20 World Cup and the Below-19 European Championship along with his nation and is vying with Andrija Zivkovic of Benfica for the title of Serbia’s brightest younger factor.

Alistair Bruce-Ball: He solely has three caps for his nation as a result of the previous supervisor Slavoljub Muslin did not choose him, a lot to the chagrin of the Serbian followers. Russia may very well be his probability to shine.

12. Youri Tielemans, Belgium

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Monaco (France)

Tielemans says enjoying judo from the age of 4 has helped him in his soccer profession, explaining: “It taught me so much as a result of it’s a must to assume. It’s a must to use your energy and play with the weak point of the opponent. It’s a must to use your head after which there’s this tradition of labor.”

Ian Dennis: This 21-year-old midfielder may go underneath the radar behind Belgium’s large names, solely 4 appearances in qualifying however has clearly been seen by a number of scouts.

I watched him play towards Manchester United within the Europa League final yr, when he was being tracked by Premier League golf equipment previous to his transfer to Monaco from Anderlecht. It’s simple to see why – he has all of the attributes, approach, imaginative and prescient and supplies actual drive from midfield.

13. Ismaila Sarr, Senegal

Age: 20 Place: Ahead Membership: Rennes (France)

Sarr is from the identical ‘Technology Foot’ academy in Senegal that produced Liverpool’s Sadio Mane. In addition to claiming he rejected Barcelona, Sarr was linked with Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund earlier than becoming a member of Rennes final summer time

Steve Wilson: A left-sided attacker who’s drawing inevitable comparisons to countryman Sadio Mane, Sarr has fought again effectively from a critical tendon damage in September 2017 to make the £15m Rennes paid Metz for him seem like cash effectively spent.

Sarr selected Rennes and common soccer forward of a transfer to Barcelona, which should have been a tricky however level-headed alternative. If he does in addition to many anticipate in Russia, then one other queue for his signature will probably be forming.

14. Uros Spajic, Serbia

Age: 25 Place: Centre-back Membership: Krasnodar (Russia)

Spajic joined Anderlect for £2m from French facet Toulouse in 2017, after spending a yr on mortgage with the Belgian facet

Ian Dennis: Spajic turned 25 this yr so is a little bit older than most on this checklist, however stays a superb prospect and I used to be shocked he lately headed east – he is simply signed for Russian facet Krasnodar for 7m euros from Belgian facet Anderlecht.

A reliable, courageous centre-back who is nice within the air, he’s a participant who’s alert to hazard and in addition completely happy to place his physique on the road.

15. Maxi Gomez, Uruguay

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Celta Vigo (Spain)

Nicknamed ‘the Bull’, Gomez scored 18 instances for Celta Vigo within the season simply completed – together with strikes towards each Barcelona and Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: With Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez round, getting enjoying time for Uruguay goes to be the issue for Gomez, who has been an enormous success in his first season in Europe with Celta Vigo.

An enormous-money transfer to Beijing Guoan which might reportedly have elevated his wages tenfold stalled in January as Gomez acquired chilly toes about China. He was clever to assume twice – additional fame and fortune are simply across the nook.

BBC Sport – Football ultras_FC_Barcelona

ultras FC Barcelona - https://ultrasfcb.com/football/5642/

#Barcelona

[architectnews]

New UK Housing: British Housebuilding

New British Homes, Property in England, Building, ONS House Price Index 2021, Architect

New UK Housing: Housebuilding News

UK Residential Property Expansion + Housebuilding Issues: Reaction to Budget

16 June 2021

UK House Price Rise

ONS House Price Index Rise

Today’s ONS House Price Index shows that the average UK house price rose by 8.9% in the year to April 2021.

Jamie Johnson, CEO of FJP Investment, said: “While today’s ONS’s data reaffirms what most of us already knew, which is that house prices have risen significantly throughout the first half of the year, we have to remember that there is a time delay with this index. We are receiving insight into the state of the market in April, not right now. This is important because, as the stamp duty holiday approaches, we are really waiting to see if the house price growth continues, plateaus or falls across June, July and into summer.

“The rate of growth has slowed slightly according to ONS, and I expect this trend to continue once the initial stamp duty holiday deadline passes on 30 June. However, given the scheme tapers down rather than coming to an immediate end, this should help avoid any shocks in the property market. Ultimately, demand will not disappear overnight, and the pandemic has demonstrated once again that both homebuyers and investors see bricks and mortar as a safe bet during times of economic uncertainty.”

Paresh Raja, CEO of Market Financial Solutions said: “We are in the eye of a perfect storm, with multiple factors contributing to house prices increasing at a remarkable rate. The role of the stamp duty holiday is well documented. But we must also acknowledge that the pandemic has forced homeowners to reconsider their priorities, prompting many to list their properties and look for new homes. At the same time, the Bank of England’s record low base rate makes borrowing more affordable, while we are also seeing more investors gravitating towards real estate as a reliable asset class in the current climate.

“Given these multiple factors, not to mention the backlog of deals still waiting to be completed, there is every reason to believe prices will continue to increase in the second half of 2021, even if the rate of growth eases off, as was seemingly the case in April when compared to March. The stamp duty holiday might be about to begin its taper back to normal levels, but it would be foolish to assume this will reverse the past year’s progress.”

30 Sep 2020

Impact Of Covid-19 on UK Housebuilding

New Figures Show Impact Of Covid-19 On Housebuilding Rates

Quarterly housing starts and completions lowest since 2000

Industry calls for assistance to construction sector

Wednesday 30 September 2020 – The number of new build homes started or completed in England between April and June 2020 fell to their lowest levels since the year 2000as Covid-19 hit the construction industry, according to new figures published today.

The figures also show, despite Covid, a longer-term decline in housing starts and completions, with the number of homes started or completed in the year to June 2020 also showing a sharp fall.

According to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the indicators of new housing supply figures should be regarded as a leading indicator of overall supply.

They show:

The number of dwellings where building work has started on site was 15,930 in April to June 2020 – a 52% decrease when compared to the last quarter.  It also follows a recent trend of a slowdown in growth with six of the last six quarters showing a decrease.  Starts are 67% below their March quarter 2007 peak and are 7% below the previous trough in the March quarter of 2009. It is the lowest quarterly starts figure in the seasonally adjusted time series (which begins in the year 2000).

There were 121,630 estimated new build dwellings starts in the year to June 2020, a 26 per cent decrease compared to the year to June 2019.

The number of dwellings completed on site was 15,390 in April to June 2020.  This is a 62% decrease compared to the last quarter and 64% below their level in the same quarter a year ago. Completions are now 67% below their peak in the March quarter 2007 and 37% below the previous trough in March quarter 2013. It is the lowest quarterly completions figure in the seasonally adjusted time series (which begins in the year 2000).

An estimated 147,180 new build dwellings were completed in the year to June 2020, a decrease of 15 per cent compared to the year to June 2019.

Clive Docwra, managing director of property and construction consultancy McBains said:

“Today’s statistics bear out the huge impact that Covid-19 – and in particular the Spring lockdown – has had on housebuilding rates. 

“The government target of building a million new homes in the new five years was always going to be a steep challenge, but the pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to that ambition.

“The industry is now facing a double-whammy – trying to recover from the impact of Covid but also suffering from the uncertainty over a Brexit deal – with investors holding off putting money into new developments until the picture on a withdrawal agreement becomes clearer.

“The Government will no doubt point to its recent planning White Paper as the answer to building more homes, saying that it will mean ‘permission in principle’ will be given to developments on land designated for renewal to speed-up building, but the uncertainty and resulting fluctuating values driven by Covid and Brexit are reducing the incentive on developers to build in the short term.

“The government could address this by temporarily staggering or deferring Section 106 planning obligations – where developers are asked to provide contributions for community infrastructure – so that developers are encouraged to complete housebuilding projects as soon as possible.”

Recent UK housing news on e-architect:

New UK homes for the North and Midlands

13 August 2020

UK Residential Market News

Rental Sector Strength Comment

We post comment below in response to the RICS monthly residential market survey.

Elisabeth Kohlbach, CEO of Skwire comments: “Doom and gloom surrounding the news that the UK residential market is set for a ‘bust’ in the coming months overlooks a bright spot in a major segment of the residential market – the rental sector.

“The PRS sector is a growing part of the UK’s housing mix and the demand for this part of the market is not going away. Moreover, with lenders introducing a range of restrictions to cope with the spike in demand for mortgages following the announcement of stamp duty relief, many would-be buyers are struggling to get on the ladder and will no doubt turn to the rental market once again.

“While traditional destinations for BTR investors, such as London, may no longer be as attractive as remote workers flock to towns and cities beyond the capital, investors should look to the regions, which offer an exciting and untapped opportunity. Institutional investors should look beyond the traditional high density city-centre developments and seize the opportunity to tap into a rich pool of existing stock across the UK.”

7 August 2020

UK house prices rise in July

Halifax House Price Index for July 2020

Halifax has this morning released its House Price Index for July, showing that house prices have risen month-on-month and year-on-year in reaction to the Stamp Duty Land Tax holiday introduced earlier in the month.

While this is positive news for the sector, can this momentum be maintained?

Jamie Johnson, CEO of FJP Investment “Today’s House Price Index shows that the stamp duty holiday is having its desired effect, encouraging buyers and sellers to make a cautious return back to the property market. The release of pent-up demand is driving up house prices, slowly making up for the losses that were incurred at the height of the pandemic.

“The big question now is whether this initial burst in activity can be maintained over the next few months. Will house prices continue to grow; or will the momentum fizzle out? There is no clear answer at present. Nonetheless, today’s House Price Index makes the case for cautious optimism.

“Importantly, I do not believe the coronavirus has dampened investor demand for UK real estate. Property’s resilience and ability to quickly recover any losses in value in times of crises makes it a top asset class for both domestic and overseas buyers. Once there is greater certainty about the future of COVID-19 and the post-pandemic recovery, I anticipate buyer demand to return in full force.”

8 July 2020

UK Stamp Duty Changes

8 July 2020 Chancellor’s ‘mini budget’ for green jobs misses mark on transport and housing, says to CPRE

Commenting on the Chancellors ‘mini budget’, Tom Fyans, campaigns and policy director at CPRE, the countryside charity, said:

‘While we have seen promising starts on energy efficiency and shoring up rural hospitality businesses, the Chancellor has missed major opportunities to begin building back better when it comes to transport and housing investment.’

Read more at UK Summer Statement Response

8 July 2020 RIBA reacts to Chancellor’s ‘Plan for Jobs’

“The RIBA has long advocated for a ‘green’ post-COVID recovery, so I welcome the Chancellor’s efforts to put sustainability front and centre of today’s announcements.”

Read more at RIBA UK News

8 July 2020 UK Stamp Duty Changes

View from Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing on the stamp duty changes:

Kush Rawal, Director of Residential Investment from Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing comments: “We welcome the Chancellor’s stamp duty holiday, which makes shared ownership homes an even more attractive option for people looking to own their own home. Removing stamp duty from almost all initial share purchases means that key workers will be able to buy a shared ownership home with as little as two months of rent as their deposit.”

6 July 2020

Is ‘build build build’ best for England’s planning system?

Alister Scott, Professor of Environmental Geography and an expert in urban planning and infrastructure, writes for The Conversation on proposals to change the UK’s planning system.

English Planning System

18 Jun 2020

Timber Frame: Accommodating The Differential

With sales of timber homes and buildings heading towards £1bn in the next 12 months*, Andy Swift, sales and operations manager, UK & ROI for ISO-Chemie, considers sealant tapes for timber frame structures and accommodating differential movement:

New UK Timber Frame Building

3 Jun 2020

UK Architects welcome landmark ARCO Report

We post comments from Mark Rowe, principal at Penoyre & Prasad and Félicie Krikler, director at Assael Architecture in support of ARCO’s landmark report launched earlier today:

Mark Rowe, principal at Penoyre & Prasad, said: “This research highlights the shift towards a more collective way of living – integrating purpose-built accommodation with access to healthcare and facilities that can help maintain independence.” – read more at:

Too little, Too late? Housing for an ageing population

26 Mar 2020

Housebuilding Rates Fall – Even Before Coronavirus Impacts

Thursday 26th of March 2020 – The number of new build homes started and completed in the last quarter of 2019 fell below government targets, according to new government figures published today – and the industry says the coronavirus pandemic is set to impact these further.

According to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the new build dwellings figures should be regarded as a leading indicator of overall housing supply.

Today’s figures show that:

On a quarterly basis, new build dwelling starts in England were estimated at 34,260 (seasonally adjusted) in the latest quarter, an 11 per cent decrease compared to the previous 3 months and a 17 per cent decrease on a year earlier. Completions were estimated at 44,980 (seasonally adjusted), a 1 per cent decrease from the previous quarter and 3 per cent higher than a year ago.

Annual new build dwelling starts totalled 151,020 in the year to December 2019, a 10 per cent decrease compared with the year to December 2018. During the same period, completions totalled 178,800, an increase of 9 per cent compared with last year

All starts between October and December 2019 are now 99 per cent above the trough in the March quarter 2009 and 30 per cent below the March quarter 2007 peak. All completions between October and December 2019 are 78 per cent above the trough in the March quarter 2013 and 7 per cent below the March quarter 2007 peak.

Clive Docwra, Managing Director of leading construction consulting and design agency McBains, said:

“The government’s ambitious housebuilding target – delivering a million homes in the next five years – was always going to be extremely challenging, and the latest statistics bear this out. However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will mean this is now virtually impossible.

“Many sites are empty, supply chains have been disrupted and multi-million pounds worth of private investment is on hold for the foreseeable future. That will knock back housebuilding rates months, if not years.

“The government has already announced an unprecedented package of measures to help support business, but once we’ve turned the tide on the virus further help, such as tax incentives, will be needed to get the UK building again.”

Previously on e-architect:

24 Nov 2017

UK Housebuilding Policy

UK Government Approach to Housing Shortage – Budget Reaction

The UK Chancellor announced a raft of measures aimed at significantly increasing levels of home building and “reviving the British dream of home ownership”.

Key amongst the Chancellor’s statements were the abolition of Stamp Duty Land Tax on homes under £300k for First Time Buyers, £15.3 billion of new financial support for house building over the next five years (which includes money for the government to buy land as well as delivering supporting infrastructure) and more money to help SME builders.

This is in addition to the £10bn extra funding already announced for the English version of the Help to Buy shared equity scheme.

Some reactions to this week’s UK Budget from key built environment representatives:

“In essence the abolition of Stamp duty is the kind of sweeping move we needed to provide hope at the bottom end of the market and hopefully helping towards the aspirational 300K homes per year. As an employer, seeing younger architects get a foothold on the housing ladder is a strong hope and this is surely a welcome hand-out to bring the youth vote around for the Conservatives.

We would like to see more certainty on how the £44Bn figure to aid housebuilding will actually materialise into capital expenditure from Central or Local Government. The budget won’t solve the disconnect in planning, unless some of that cash is pumped into increasing resources in planning departments.”

Graham Hickson-Smith, Commercial Director, 3DReid

“It’s good to see the government taking the housing crisis seriously with the final quarter of the speech devoted to this one subject, an impressive commitment to extra spending of £44bn over five years and the headline grabbing finale of the reduction in stamp duty. The devil though will, as always be in the detail.

The lifting of HRA caps is good in principle but there are no details at all, while the £34m for skills training sounds like a drop in the ocean when we are faced with a huge likely loss of construction workers post-Brexit. Other measures announced include the review to be chaired by Oliver Letwin which may, helpfully, lay to rest the myth that land banking is a serious problem – most developers being concerned to turn over their capital as fast as possible rather than tie it up in dormant sites.

Finally there is the reduction in stamp duty for first time buyers, which will undoubtedly appeal to younger voters, but the same measure would probably be much more effective, economically, as an incentive to retired people to downsize, releasing under-occupied houses into the market.”

Richard Morton, Richard Morton Architects

“We really welcome the Chancellor’s moves to boost the supply of badly-needed new homes. Policies which aim to lower the cost of land and bring forward more building sites, particularly in urban areas well served by public transport, are good news – and preferable to policies which make it easier for some people to afford high house prices.

But all of this new housing needs to be sustainable, in environmental terms, and here the government’s policies are seriously lacking. It wants five new garden cities, but has said virtually nothing about what defines them.

The Budget has not addressed the critical need for green and low-carbon infrastructure and low-impact homes, not just on green fields, but everywhere. Nor has this budget addressed the need to upgrade and retrofit millions of our existing energy-inefficient homes.”

Sue Riddlestone OBE, Chief Executive of Bioregional

22 Jan 2016

UK Housing Expansion

Homebuilding in Great Britain

The Ministry of Defence has put 12 sites on the block to provide land for up to 15,000 new homes.

Government Defence Minister Mark Lancaster said the land sale was expected to raise £500m, which will be ploughed back into frontline defence budgets, reports https://ift.tt/3gu2l4R.

The sale is the first tranche of more ambitious plans to support the government’s ambition to build 160,000 homes by 2020.

The MOD, which owns around 1% of all UK land, plans to slash the size of its built estate by nearly a third, with its current holdings stretching to 452,000 hectares.

As part of that plan, the Ministry has committed to generating £1bn through land sales during this parliament and contributing up to 55,000 homes.

Imber in Wiltshire, on Salisbury Plain, England “was evacuated in 1943. The village, still classed as a civil parish, remains under control of the Ministry of Defence”: photograph © swns.com

Ministry of Defence Estate Sell-off MoD estate sell-off – tranche 1 12 sites placed on the market:

– Kneller Hall in Twickenham – Claro and Deverell barracks in Ripon – RAF sites Molesworth and Alconbury in Cambridgeshire, and Mildenhall in Suffolk. – Lodge Hill in Kent – Craigiehall in Edinburgh – HMS Nelson Wardroom in Portsmouth – Hullavington Airfield in Wiltshire – RAF Barnham in Suffolk – MOD Feltham in London

The MOD will announce further sites in due course, with a full list published in the Footprint Strategy later in 2016.

Link: https://ift.tt/3gs27v2

photograph © swns.com

British Houses

UK Government Housing Policy

UK Government Design Advisory Panel – New Housing Design Quality

Chair of RIBA Housing Group, Andy Von Bradsky, represented RIBA this week on the government’s Design Advisory Panel. The panel was set up under the coalition government and has been re-formed by the current government to advise on key policy issues, reports the RIBA.

The RIBA has welcomed the Prime Minister’s announcement that a Design Advisory Panel is being set up to ‘set the bar on housing design across the country’ and is looking forward to working with other panel members.

David Cameron announced the creation of the panel this week when he confirmed the go ahead for a new Starter Homes scheme, though the panel will inform government policies on housing design nationally.

Fleet Street Hill Housing in London by Peter Barber Architects: image from architect

The DCLG has already confirmed that panel members will include Sir Terry Farrell, classicist Sir Quinlan Terry and philosopher Roger Scruton alongside nominated representatives from the RIBA, RTPI, Design Council and Create Streets.

The panel will be chaired by ministers, so there are high hopes that it will have a genuine influence on policy. The Government says the panel will act as a sounding board, so that the housing and design industry can discuss policy issues with ministers and senior government officials. Its remit will cover:

Emerging housing and planning policy to ensure that good design is considered and embedded from the outset. Delivery of housing and planning policy to ensure that good design is achieved through Government’s programmes. Emerging industry issues and barriers to good design in housing delivery.

Inspiring design of Grand Large Housing Dunkirk: photo from ANMA/Agence Nicolas Michelin & Associés

‘We welcome the response from Government to the Farrell review and our own recommendation to have more design advice available to Government when shaping policy.’ said RIBA Head of External Affairs Anna Scott-Marshall.

‘It is encouraging that the Government, industry and other professionals will work in collaboration to ensure that we build the right kinds of homes in the right kinds of places.’ Farrell is also enthusiastic and said the panel has the potential to make a real difference.

‘It builds on the recommendations of the Farrell Review (https://ift.tt/3xpf4LF), which highlighted the need for more proactive planning and better placemaking as we attempt to address the housing crisis, with radically higher priority given to landscape, sustainability and the public realm.’

Stadthaus at 24 Murray Grove, London, by Waugh Thistleton – constructed entirely in timber, the nine-storey high-rise is the tallest timber residential building in the world

Stadthaus photo : Will Pryce Murray Grove Housing

Interesting link:

Imber village on Salisbury Plain under control of the Ministry of Defence

UK Housing Links:

Housing Crisis

New London Housing

British Homes

British House Designs

English Architecture:

English Architecture Designs – chronological list

Location: UK

Contemporary British Homes

Recent British Home Designs

Black House, Kent, South East England Architect: AR Design Studio image courtesy of architects Black House in Kent

A House for Essex, Essex, South East England Design: FAT Architecture and Grayson Perry photograph : Jack Hobhouse A House for Essex

Balancing Barn, Suffolk, South East England Design: MVRDV photo : Living Architecture Balancing Barn Suffolk

Hurst House, Buckinghamshire, Southern England Design: John Pardey Architects with Ström Architects photo : Andy Matthews Buckinghamshire Property

Contemporary North European Homes

Recent North European Houses

Danish Houses

German Houses

French Houses

Comments / photos for the New UK Housing Shortage – Current British Housebuilding page welcome

The post New UK Housing: British Housebuilding appeared first on e-architect.

[ultrasfcb-blog]

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia – together with

Clockwise from prime left: Hirving Lozano, Andre Silva, Breel Embolo, Youri Tielemans, Maxi Gomez and Cristian Pavon are among the many younger stars to look at on the 2018 World Cup

World Cup 2018 on the BBC Host: Russia Dates: 14 June – 15 July Dwell: Protection throughout BBC TV, BBC Radio and BBC Sport web site with additional protection on Pink Button, Related TVs and cellular app.

We already know concerning the superstars who might gentle up the 2018 Fifa World Cup, however what concerning the subsequent era of expertise?

Few of the 736 gamers who might function in Russia could be classed as complete unknowns however there’ll nonetheless be some unfamiliar faces trying to announce themselves on the worldwide stage.

Right here, BBC Sport’s TV and radio World Cup commentators pick the 15 younger gamers from outdoors the Premier League who’re price watching out for this summer time.

1. Hirving Lozano (Mexico)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands)

Lozano was given his nickname ‘El Chucky’ as a toddler, when he would conceal underneath the mattress and attempt to frighten different boys. He hit 4 targets in Mexico’s qualifying marketing campaign and was named considered one of Fifa’s younger stars of 2017

Steve Wilson: With 19 targets and 11 assists in 34 video games, Lozano’s statistics in PSV’s Eredivisie-winning season – his first marketing campaign in Europe – present the potential he confirmed at Pachuca is now being absolutely realised.

Having performed his approach into Mexico’s Confederations Cup group final summer time, he scored in a 2-1 win over Russia earlier than the semi-final defeat by Germany. His brace in a 3-Three attract Belgium in November was one other headline-grabbing efficiency from a ahead who can play on the precise or left of a central striker.

Jonathan Pearce: Lozano is a superb, fiery prospect and will effectively gentle up these finals – he has searing tempo and likes to roll in off the left to attain along with his favoured proper foot.

In addition to his targets at membership degree, he has seven strikes in 27 senior internationals for Mexico, which is an effective return for a younger participant.

There is a catch – he was despatched off twice for PSV this season and for Mexico on the 2016 Olympics – however he appears decided to make an influence a method or one other.

2. Cristian Pavon (Argentina)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: Boca Juniors (Argentina)

Pavon loves to chop in from the left on to his proper foot and is exhibiting a promising understanding with Lionel Messi. Argentina coach Jorge Sampaoli says: ‘Cristian is a participant who has very particular traits for speaking with Messi. He goes to area, he’s providing on a regular basis and he has an vital dynamic’

Man Mowbray: With such a stellar checklist of names forward of him within the Argentina facet, the Boca Juniors prospect may not get any recreation time in Russia – but when he does get off the bench it is an opportunity to indicate he’ll quickly belong in the most effective firm.

Pavon appears to be like set for a transfer to Benfica, following the European path trodden by Angel di Maria – an apparent participant for comparability, and one who may quickly make approach for the younger pretender.

3. Aleksei Miranchuk (Russia)

Age: 22 Place: Attacking midfielder Membership: Lokomotiv Moscow (Russia)

Miranchuk, who can play on the precise wing or up entrance, scored seven targets to assist Lokomotiv Moscow win the Russian Premier League for the primary time since 2004. His twin brother Anton is a midfielder

Conor McNamara: I’m commentating on the opening recreation of the World Cup, so I have been holding an in depth eye on Russia’s build-up. There’s a number of strain on the hosts, who will probably be hoping Miranchuk steps up as one of many stars. He may very well be their inventive inspiration.

Take heed to McNamara’s commentary of Russia v Saudi Arabia (kick-off 16:00 BST) on BBC Radio 5 dwell on Thursday, 14 June.

Steve Wilson: Russia are determined for somebody to galvanise the group to no less than a decent exhibiting as hosts.

That somebody might but be the long-lauded Aleksandr Golovin, who went to Euro 2016 with nice expectations that appeared solely to show a burden – or it could be the marginally older Miranchuk, who has simply helped Lokomotiv win the Russian title together with twin brother Anton, who can be within the squad.

An attacking midfielder with an eye fixed for purpose, Aleksei has developed effectively since his transient look in final summer time’s Confederations Cup.

4. Breel Embolo (Switzerland)

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Schalke 04 (Germany)

Embolo was born in Yaounde, the capital of Cameroon, and lived there till he was 5. After a yr in France, he moved to Basel and has had a Swiss passport since 2014. He’s a favorite of the Switzerland followers, who sing ‘Oh Embolo! Oh Embolo!’ (to the tune of ‘The Lion Sleeps Tonight’)

Ian Dennis: I first noticed Embolo play 4 years in the past when his FC Basel facet beat Liverpool within the Champions League. As a young person, he was uncooked however had electrifying tempo to hassle defenders.

He left Switzerland in the summertime of 2016 to maneuver to Schalke however an ankle damage that October ended his first season in Germany prematurely.

Embolo nonetheless wants so as to add targets to his recreation however he is a strong striker and nonetheless solely 21.

5. Renato Tapia, Peru

Age: 22 Place: Midfielder, centre-half, right-back Membership: Feyenoord (Netherlands)

Tapia left Peru aged 16 for a trial with Liverpool in 2011 after they noticed him within the World Youth Cup however, in an interview he gave to Dutch journal Voetbal Worldwide in 2016, he claimed the Reds instructed him he was too brief – regardless of him being 6ft tall on the time. He has now grown an additional half-inch.

Radio 5 dwell soccer correspondent John Murray: Renato Tapia is a rising star, and a flexible one too. He has been schooled in Dutch soccer since he moved to Europe to hitch FC Twente in 2013 and is now at Feyenoord. Regardless of his age, he is a crucial a part of a Peru group going to the World Cup with kind and confidence – and is seen as a future captain of Los Incas.

6. Sardar Azmoun (Iran)

Age: 23 Place: Striker Membership: Rubin Kazan (Russia)

Often called ‘the Iranian Messi’ – for his dribbling capability – and ‘the Iranian Zlatan’ for his high quality within the air, Azmoun was closely linked with Liverpool in January 2016 however a switch by no means materialised

Alistair Bruce-Ball: Azmoun scored 11 targets in 14 video games in qualifying and has a implausible strike fee of 23 targets in 32 worldwide appearances.

Iran are superb defensively – Carlos Queiroz’s facet stored 9 consecutive clear sheets of their closing spherical of qualification video games – however, if they will progress in Russia, they should rating with the few possibilities that come their approach. Loads of that will probably be right down to Azmoun.

7. Achraf Hakimi (Morocco)

Age: 19 Place: Full-back Membership: Actual Madrid (Spain)

Hakimi was born in Getafe, Spain, however each his mother and father are from Morocco and he made his debut for the Atlas Lions on the age of 17, earlier than he made his senior debut for Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: At 19, Hakimi already has winner’s medals from the Membership World Cup and Champions League. He performed at right-back in each Actual’s matches towards Spurs within the latter competitors this season – and made 17 first-team appearances in all – however might begin at left-back for Morocco in Russia.

Former Actual boss Zinedine Zidane preferred him a lot he was completely happy to promote Brazil worldwide Danilo to Manchester Metropolis. Sufficient stated.

8. Andre Silva (Portugal)

Age: 22 Place: Striker Membership: AC Milan (Italy)

Silva, who has scored 12 targets in 22 video games for Portugal, joined AC Milan from Porto for £33m in the summertime of 2017

Conor McNamara: Silva continues to be discovering his approach at AC Milan and was primarily used in its place final season in Serie A, however he was given extra of an opportunity within the Europa League and scored six targets in eight begins in that competitors in 2017-18.

To this point in his worldwide profession he has averaged a purpose each three photographs, and apparently Wolves and Huddersfield are desirous about bringing him to the Premier League subsequent season.

Wherever he finally ends up enjoying his membership soccer, Cristiano Ronaldo has already stated Silva could be his long-term successor as Portugal’s foremost goalscorer.

9. Rodrigo Bentancur, Uruguay

Age: 20 Place: Midfielder Membership: Juventus (Italy)

Juve provisionally signed Bentancur in 2015 as a part of the deal that noticed Carlos Tevez transfer to Boca Juniors. He ultimately joined the Italian facet for £8m in July 2017

John Murray: Good issues are anticipated of this tall, two-footed midfielder who has simply completed his first season with Juventus and solely made his senior worldwide debut in October 2017.

I am anticipating Uruguay to do effectively and, in the event that they do, Bentancur might effectively get his probability to shine.

10. Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Iran

Age: 24 Place: Striker Membership: AZ Alkmaar (Netherlands)

Jahanbakhsh scored 21 targets and made 12 assists for AZ Alkmaar and have become the primary footballer from the Center East or Asia to complete as prime scorer in a serious European league

Man Mowbray: It could be a shock if Carlos Queiroz can information Iran out of the group stage above both Spain or his native Portugal, however in AZ striker Alireza Jahanbakhsh he has a participant of high quality who’s being linked with a transfer to the Premier League.

Positive, the Eredivisie is not the highest degree today, however to complete as prime scorer continues to be no imply feat – he is following some main gamers to the honour.

A purpose towards one or each of the large weapons in Group B may not get Iran by way of to the final 16, nevertheless it may get his Dutch membership facet a number of extra million euros later this summer time.

11. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Serbia

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Lazio (Italy)

Nicknamed the Sergeant, Milinkovic-Savic stands 6ft 4in tall. His mom was knowledgeable basketball participant and tall genes run within the household – his youthful brother Vanja is 6ft 8in is a goalkeeper who signed for Manchester United in 2014 however left after failing to safe a piece allow.

Steve Wilson: Born in Spain, Milinkovic-Savic has been an important success for Lazio – scoring 14 targets from midfield final season – and is reported to be on Manchester United’s purchasing checklist.

The 23-year-old has received each the Below-20 World Cup and the Below-19 European Championship along with his nation and is vying with Andrija Zivkovic of Benfica for the title of Serbia’s brightest younger factor.

Alistair Bruce-Ball: He solely has three caps for his nation as a result of the previous supervisor Slavoljub Muslin did not choose him, a lot to the chagrin of the Serbian followers. Russia may very well be his probability to shine.

12. Youri Tielemans, Belgium

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Monaco (France)

Tielemans says enjoying judo from the age of 4 has helped him in his soccer profession, explaining: “It taught me so much as a result of it’s a must to assume. It’s a must to use your energy and play with the weak point of the opponent. It’s a must to use your head after which there’s this tradition of labor.”

Ian Dennis: This 21-year-old midfielder may go underneath the radar behind Belgium’s large names, solely 4 appearances in qualifying however has clearly been seen by a number of scouts.

I watched him play towards Manchester United within the Europa League final yr, when he was being tracked by Premier League golf equipment previous to his transfer to Monaco from Anderlecht. It’s simple to see why – he has all of the attributes, approach, imaginative and prescient and supplies actual drive from midfield.

13. Ismaila Sarr, Senegal

Age: 20 Place: Ahead Membership: Rennes (France)

Sarr is from the identical ‘Technology Foot’ academy in Senegal that produced Liverpool’s Sadio Mane. In addition to claiming he rejected Barcelona, Sarr was linked with Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund earlier than becoming a member of Rennes final summer time

Steve Wilson: A left-sided attacker who’s drawing inevitable comparisons to countryman Sadio Mane, Sarr has fought again effectively from a critical tendon damage in September 2017 to make the £15m Rennes paid Metz for him seem like cash effectively spent.

Sarr selected Rennes and common soccer forward of a transfer to Barcelona, which should have been a tricky however level-headed alternative. If he does in addition to many anticipate in Russia, then one other queue for his signature will probably be forming.

14. Uros Spajic, Serbia

Age: 25 Place: Centre-back Membership: Krasnodar (Russia)

Spajic joined Anderlect for £2m from French facet Toulouse in 2017, after spending a yr on mortgage with the Belgian facet

Ian Dennis: Spajic turned 25 this yr so is a little bit older than most on this checklist, however stays a superb prospect and I used to be shocked he lately headed east – he is simply signed for Russian facet Krasnodar for 7m euros from Belgian facet Anderlecht.

A reliable, courageous centre-back who is nice within the air, he’s a participant who’s alert to hazard and in addition completely happy to place his physique on the road.

15. Maxi Gomez, Uruguay

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Celta Vigo (Spain)

Nicknamed ‘the Bull’, Gomez scored 18 instances for Celta Vigo within the season simply completed – together with strikes towards each Barcelona and Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: With Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez round, getting enjoying time for Uruguay goes to be the issue for Gomez, who has been an enormous success in his first season in Europe with Celta Vigo.

An enormous-money transfer to Beijing Guoan which might reportedly have elevated his wages tenfold stalled in January as Gomez acquired chilly toes about China. He was clever to assume twice – additional fame and fortune are simply across the nook.

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World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia – together with

Clockwise from prime left: Hirving Lozano, Andre Silva, Breel Embolo, Youri Tielemans, Maxi Gomez and Cristian Pavon are among the many younger stars to look at on the 2018 World Cup

World Cup 2018 on the BBC Host: Russia Dates: 14 June – 15 July Dwell: Protection throughout BBC TV, BBC Radio and BBC Sport web site with additional protection on Pink Button, Related TVs and cellular app.

We already know concerning the superstars who might gentle up the 2018 Fifa World Cup, however what concerning the subsequent era of expertise?

Few of the 736 gamers who might function in Russia could be classed as complete unknowns however there’ll nonetheless be some unfamiliar faces trying to announce themselves on the worldwide stage.

Right here, BBC Sport’s TV and radio World Cup commentators pick the 15 younger gamers from outdoors the Premier League who’re price watching out for this summer time.

1. Hirving Lozano (Mexico)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands)

Lozano was given his nickname ‘El Chucky’ as a toddler, when he would conceal underneath the mattress and attempt to frighten different boys. He hit 4 targets in Mexico’s qualifying marketing campaign and was named considered one of Fifa’s younger stars of 2017

Steve Wilson: With 19 targets and 11 assists in 34 video games, Lozano’s statistics in PSV’s Eredivisie-winning season – his first marketing campaign in Europe – present the potential he confirmed at Pachuca is now being absolutely realised.

Having performed his approach into Mexico’s Confederations Cup group final summer time, he scored in a 2-1 win over Russia earlier than the semi-final defeat by Germany. His brace in a 3-Three attract Belgium in November was one other headline-grabbing efficiency from a ahead who can play on the precise or left of a central striker.

Jonathan Pearce: Lozano is a superb, fiery prospect and will effectively gentle up these finals – he has searing tempo and likes to roll in off the left to attain along with his favoured proper foot.

In addition to his targets at membership degree, he has seven strikes in 27 senior internationals for Mexico, which is an effective return for a younger participant.

There is a catch – he was despatched off twice for PSV this season and for Mexico on the 2016 Olympics – however he appears decided to make an influence a method or one other.

2. Cristian Pavon (Argentina)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: Boca Juniors (Argentina)

Pavon loves to chop in from the left on to his proper foot and is exhibiting a promising understanding with Lionel Messi. Argentina coach Jorge Sampaoli says: ‘Cristian is a participant who has very particular traits for speaking with Messi. He goes to area, he’s providing on a regular basis and he has an vital dynamic’

Man Mowbray: With such a stellar checklist of names forward of him within the Argentina facet, the Boca Juniors prospect may not get any recreation time in Russia – but when he does get off the bench it is an opportunity to indicate he’ll quickly belong in the most effective firm.

Pavon appears to be like set for a transfer to Benfica, following the European path trodden by Angel di Maria – an apparent participant for comparability, and one who may quickly make approach for the younger pretender.

3. Aleksei Miranchuk (Russia)

Age: 22 Place: Attacking midfielder Membership: Lokomotiv Moscow (Russia)

Miranchuk, who can play on the precise wing or up entrance, scored seven targets to assist Lokomotiv Moscow win the Russian Premier League for the primary time since 2004. His twin brother Anton is a midfielder

Conor McNamara: I’m commentating on the opening recreation of the World Cup, so I have been holding an in depth eye on Russia’s build-up. There’s a number of strain on the hosts, who will probably be hoping Miranchuk steps up as one of many stars. He may very well be their inventive inspiration.

Take heed to McNamara’s commentary of Russia v Saudi Arabia (kick-off 16:00 BST) on BBC Radio 5 dwell on Thursday, 14 June.

Steve Wilson: Russia are determined for somebody to galvanise the group to no less than a decent exhibiting as hosts.

That somebody might but be the long-lauded Aleksandr Golovin, who went to Euro 2016 with nice expectations that appeared solely to show a burden – or it could be the marginally older Miranchuk, who has simply helped Lokomotiv win the Russian title together with twin brother Anton, who can be within the squad.

An attacking midfielder with an eye fixed for purpose, Aleksei has developed effectively since his transient look in final summer time’s Confederations Cup.

4. Breel Embolo (Switzerland)

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Schalke 04 (Germany)

Embolo was born in Yaounde, the capital of Cameroon, and lived there till he was 5. After a yr in France, he moved to Basel and has had a Swiss passport since 2014. He’s a favorite of the Switzerland followers, who sing ‘Oh Embolo! Oh Embolo!’ (to the tune of ‘The Lion Sleeps Tonight’)

Ian Dennis: I first noticed Embolo play 4 years in the past when his FC Basel facet beat Liverpool within the Champions League. As a young person, he was uncooked however had electrifying tempo to hassle defenders.

He left Switzerland in the summertime of 2016 to maneuver to Schalke however an ankle damage that October ended his first season in Germany prematurely.

Embolo nonetheless wants so as to add targets to his recreation however he is a strong striker and nonetheless solely 21.

5. Renato Tapia, Peru

Age: 22 Place: Midfielder, centre-half, right-back Membership: Feyenoord (Netherlands)

Tapia left Peru aged 16 for a trial with Liverpool in 2011 after they noticed him within the World Youth Cup however, in an interview he gave to Dutch journal Voetbal Worldwide in 2016, he claimed the Reds instructed him he was too brief – regardless of him being 6ft tall on the time. He has now grown an additional half-inch.

Radio 5 dwell soccer correspondent John Murray: Renato Tapia is a rising star, and a flexible one too. He has been schooled in Dutch soccer since he moved to Europe to hitch FC Twente in 2013 and is now at Feyenoord. Regardless of his age, he is a crucial a part of a Peru group going to the World Cup with kind and confidence – and is seen as a future captain of Los Incas.

6. Sardar Azmoun (Iran)

Age: 23 Place: Striker Membership: Rubin Kazan (Russia)

Often called ‘the Iranian Messi’ – for his dribbling capability – and ‘the Iranian Zlatan’ for his high quality within the air, Azmoun was closely linked with Liverpool in January 2016 however a switch by no means materialised

Alistair Bruce-Ball: Azmoun scored 11 targets in 14 video games in qualifying and has a implausible strike fee of 23 targets in 32 worldwide appearances.

Iran are superb defensively – Carlos Queiroz’s facet stored 9 consecutive clear sheets of their closing spherical of qualification video games – however, if they will progress in Russia, they should rating with the few possibilities that come their approach. Loads of that will probably be right down to Azmoun.

7. Achraf Hakimi (Morocco)

Age: 19 Place: Full-back Membership: Actual Madrid (Spain)

Hakimi was born in Getafe, Spain, however each his mother and father are from Morocco and he made his debut for the Atlas Lions on the age of 17, earlier than he made his senior debut for Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: At 19, Hakimi already has winner’s medals from the Membership World Cup and Champions League. He performed at right-back in each Actual’s matches towards Spurs within the latter competitors this season – and made 17 first-team appearances in all – however might begin at left-back for Morocco in Russia.

Former Actual boss Zinedine Zidane preferred him a lot he was completely happy to promote Brazil worldwide Danilo to Manchester Metropolis. Sufficient stated.

8. Andre Silva (Portugal)

Age: 22 Place: Striker Membership: AC Milan (Italy)

Silva, who has scored 12 targets in 22 video games for Portugal, joined AC Milan from Porto for £33m in the summertime of 2017

Conor McNamara: Silva continues to be discovering his approach at AC Milan and was primarily used in its place final season in Serie A, however he was given extra of an opportunity within the Europa League and scored six targets in eight begins in that competitors in 2017-18.

To this point in his worldwide profession he has averaged a purpose each three photographs, and apparently Wolves and Huddersfield are desirous about bringing him to the Premier League subsequent season.

Wherever he finally ends up enjoying his membership soccer, Cristiano Ronaldo has already stated Silva could be his long-term successor as Portugal’s foremost goalscorer.

9. Rodrigo Bentancur, Uruguay

Age: 20 Place: Midfielder Membership: Juventus (Italy)

Juve provisionally signed Bentancur in 2015 as a part of the deal that noticed Carlos Tevez transfer to Boca Juniors. He ultimately joined the Italian facet for £8m in July 2017

John Murray: Good issues are anticipated of this tall, two-footed midfielder who has simply completed his first season with Juventus and solely made his senior worldwide debut in October 2017.

I am anticipating Uruguay to do effectively and, in the event that they do, Bentancur might effectively get his probability to shine.

10. Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Iran

Age: 24 Place: Striker Membership: AZ Alkmaar (Netherlands)

Jahanbakhsh scored 21 targets and made 12 assists for AZ Alkmaar and have become the primary footballer from the Center East or Asia to complete as prime scorer in a serious European league

Man Mowbray: It could be a shock if Carlos Queiroz can information Iran out of the group stage above both Spain or his native Portugal, however in AZ striker Alireza Jahanbakhsh he has a participant of high quality who’s being linked with a transfer to the Premier League.

Positive, the Eredivisie is not the highest degree today, however to complete as prime scorer continues to be no imply feat – he is following some main gamers to the honour.

A purpose towards one or each of the large weapons in Group B may not get Iran by way of to the final 16, nevertheless it may get his Dutch membership facet a number of extra million euros later this summer time.

11. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Serbia

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Lazio (Italy)

Nicknamed the Sergeant, Milinkovic-Savic stands 6ft 4in tall. His mom was knowledgeable basketball participant and tall genes run within the household – his youthful brother Vanja is 6ft 8in is a goalkeeper who signed for Manchester United in 2014 however left after failing to safe a piece allow.

Steve Wilson: Born in Spain, Milinkovic-Savic has been an important success for Lazio – scoring 14 targets from midfield final season – and is reported to be on Manchester United’s purchasing checklist.

The 23-year-old has received each the Below-20 World Cup and the Below-19 European Championship along with his nation and is vying with Andrija Zivkovic of Benfica for the title of Serbia’s brightest younger factor.

Alistair Bruce-Ball: He solely has three caps for his nation as a result of the previous supervisor Slavoljub Muslin did not choose him, a lot to the chagrin of the Serbian followers. Russia may very well be his probability to shine.

12. Youri Tielemans, Belgium

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Monaco (France)

Tielemans says enjoying judo from the age of 4 has helped him in his soccer profession, explaining: “It taught me so much as a result of it’s a must to assume. It’s a must to use your energy and play with the weak point of the opponent. It’s a must to use your head after which there’s this tradition of labor.”

Ian Dennis: This 21-year-old midfielder may go underneath the radar behind Belgium’s large names, solely 4 appearances in qualifying however has clearly been seen by a number of scouts.

I watched him play towards Manchester United within the Europa League final yr, when he was being tracked by Premier League golf equipment previous to his transfer to Monaco from Anderlecht. It’s simple to see why – he has all of the attributes, approach, imaginative and prescient and supplies actual drive from midfield.

13. Ismaila Sarr, Senegal

Age: 20 Place: Ahead Membership: Rennes (France)

Sarr is from the identical ‘Technology Foot’ academy in Senegal that produced Liverpool’s Sadio Mane. In addition to claiming he rejected Barcelona, Sarr was linked with Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund earlier than becoming a member of Rennes final summer time

Steve Wilson: A left-sided attacker who’s drawing inevitable comparisons to countryman Sadio Mane, Sarr has fought again effectively from a critical tendon damage in September 2017 to make the £15m Rennes paid Metz for him seem like cash effectively spent.

Sarr selected Rennes and common soccer forward of a transfer to Barcelona, which should have been a tricky however level-headed alternative. If he does in addition to many anticipate in Russia, then one other queue for his signature will probably be forming.

14. Uros Spajic, Serbia

Age: 25 Place: Centre-back Membership: Krasnodar (Russia)

Spajic joined Anderlect for £2m from French facet Toulouse in 2017, after spending a yr on mortgage with the Belgian facet

Ian Dennis: Spajic turned 25 this yr so is a little bit older than most on this checklist, however stays a superb prospect and I used to be shocked he lately headed east – he is simply signed for Russian facet Krasnodar for 7m euros from Belgian facet Anderlecht.

A reliable, courageous centre-back who is nice within the air, he’s a participant who’s alert to hazard and in addition completely happy to place his physique on the road.

15. Maxi Gomez, Uruguay

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Celta Vigo (Spain)

Nicknamed ‘the Bull’, Gomez scored 18 instances for Celta Vigo within the season simply completed – together with strikes towards each Barcelona and Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: With Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez round, getting enjoying time for Uruguay goes to be the issue for Gomez, who has been an enormous success in his first season in Europe with Celta Vigo.

An enormous-money transfer to Beijing Guoan which might reportedly have elevated his wages tenfold stalled in January as Gomez acquired chilly toes about China. He was clever to assume twice – additional fame and fortune are simply across the nook.

BBC Sport – Football ultras_FC_Barcelona

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World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia - together with

World Cup 2018: Younger gamers to look at in Russia – together with

Clockwise from prime left: Hirving Lozano, Andre Silva, Breel Embolo, Youri Tielemans, Maxi Gomez and Cristian Pavon are among the many younger stars to look at on the 2018 World Cup

World Cup 2018 on the BBC Host: Russia Dates: 14 June – 15 July Dwell: Protection throughout BBC TV, BBC Radio and BBC Sport web site with additional protection on Pink Button, Related TVs and cellular app.

We already know concerning the superstars who might gentle up the 2018 Fifa World Cup, however what concerning the subsequent era of expertise?

Few of the 736 gamers who might function in Russia could be classed as complete unknowns however there’ll nonetheless be some unfamiliar faces trying to announce themselves on the worldwide stage.

Right here, BBC Sport’s TV and radio World Cup commentators pick the 15 younger gamers from outdoors the Premier League who’re price watching out for this summer time.

1. Hirving Lozano (Mexico)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands)

Lozano was given his nickname ‘El Chucky’ as a toddler, when he would conceal underneath the mattress and attempt to frighten different boys. He hit 4 targets in Mexico’s qualifying marketing campaign and was named considered one of Fifa’s younger stars of 2017

Steve Wilson: With 19 targets and 11 assists in 34 video games, Lozano’s statistics in PSV’s Eredivisie-winning season – his first marketing campaign in Europe – present the potential he confirmed at Pachuca is now being absolutely realised.

Having performed his approach into Mexico’s Confederations Cup group final summer time, he scored in a 2-1 win over Russia earlier than the semi-final defeat by Germany. His brace in a 3-Three attract Belgium in November was one other headline-grabbing efficiency from a ahead who can play on the precise or left of a central striker.

Jonathan Pearce: Lozano is a superb, fiery prospect and will effectively gentle up these finals – he has searing tempo and likes to roll in off the left to attain along with his favoured proper foot.

In addition to his targets at membership degree, he has seven strikes in 27 senior internationals for Mexico, which is an effective return for a younger participant.

There is a catch – he was despatched off twice for PSV this season and for Mexico on the 2016 Olympics – however he appears decided to make an influence a method or one other.

2. Cristian Pavon (Argentina)

Age: 22 Place: Winger Membership: Boca Juniors (Argentina)

Pavon loves to chop in from the left on to his proper foot and is exhibiting a promising understanding with Lionel Messi. Argentina coach Jorge Sampaoli says: ‘Cristian is a participant who has very particular traits for speaking with Messi. He goes to area, he’s providing on a regular basis and he has an vital dynamic’

Man Mowbray: With such a stellar checklist of names forward of him within the Argentina facet, the Boca Juniors prospect may not get any recreation time in Russia – but when he does get off the bench it is an opportunity to indicate he’ll quickly belong in the most effective firm.

Pavon appears to be like set for a transfer to Benfica, following the European path trodden by Angel di Maria – an apparent participant for comparability, and one who may quickly make approach for the younger pretender.

3. Aleksei Miranchuk (Russia)

Age: 22 Place: Attacking midfielder Membership: Lokomotiv Moscow (Russia)

Miranchuk, who can play on the precise wing or up entrance, scored seven targets to assist Lokomotiv Moscow win the Russian Premier League for the primary time since 2004. His twin brother Anton is a midfielder

Conor McNamara: I’m commentating on the opening recreation of the World Cup, so I have been holding an in depth eye on Russia’s build-up. There’s a number of strain on the hosts, who will probably be hoping Miranchuk steps up as one of many stars. He may very well be their inventive inspiration.

Take heed to McNamara’s commentary of Russia v Saudi Arabia (kick-off 16:00 BST) on BBC Radio 5 dwell on Thursday, 14 June.

Steve Wilson: Russia are determined for somebody to galvanise the group to no less than a decent exhibiting as hosts.

That somebody might but be the long-lauded Aleksandr Golovin, who went to Euro 2016 with nice expectations that appeared solely to show a burden – or it could be the marginally older Miranchuk, who has simply helped Lokomotiv win the Russian title together with twin brother Anton, who can be within the squad.

An attacking midfielder with an eye fixed for purpose, Aleksei has developed effectively since his transient look in final summer time’s Confederations Cup.

4. Breel Embolo (Switzerland)

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Schalke 04 (Germany)

Embolo was born in Yaounde, the capital of Cameroon, and lived there till he was 5. After a yr in France, he moved to Basel and has had a Swiss passport since 2014. He’s a favorite of the Switzerland followers, who sing ‘Oh Embolo! Oh Embolo!’ (to the tune of ‘The Lion Sleeps Tonight’)

Ian Dennis: I first noticed Embolo play 4 years in the past when his FC Basel facet beat Liverpool within the Champions League. As a young person, he was uncooked however had electrifying tempo to hassle defenders.

He left Switzerland in the summertime of 2016 to maneuver to Schalke however an ankle damage that October ended his first season in Germany prematurely.

Embolo nonetheless wants so as to add targets to his recreation however he is a strong striker and nonetheless solely 21.

5. Renato Tapia, Peru

Age: 22 Place: Midfielder, centre-half, right-back Membership: Feyenoord (Netherlands)

Tapia left Peru aged 16 for a trial with Liverpool in 2011 after they noticed him within the World Youth Cup however, in an interview he gave to Dutch journal Voetbal Worldwide in 2016, he claimed the Reds instructed him he was too brief – regardless of him being 6ft tall on the time. He has now grown an additional half-inch.

Radio 5 dwell soccer correspondent John Murray: Renato Tapia is a rising star, and a flexible one too. He has been schooled in Dutch soccer since he moved to Europe to hitch FC Twente in 2013 and is now at Feyenoord. Regardless of his age, he is a crucial a part of a Peru group going to the World Cup with kind and confidence – and is seen as a future captain of Los Incas.

6. Sardar Azmoun (Iran)

Age: 23 Place: Striker Membership: Rubin Kazan (Russia)

Often called ‘the Iranian Messi’ – for his dribbling capability – and ‘the Iranian Zlatan’ for his high quality within the air, Azmoun was closely linked with Liverpool in January 2016 however a switch by no means materialised

Alistair Bruce-Ball: Azmoun scored 11 targets in 14 video games in qualifying and has a implausible strike fee of 23 targets in 32 worldwide appearances.

Iran are superb defensively – Carlos Queiroz’s facet stored 9 consecutive clear sheets of their closing spherical of qualification video games – however, if they will progress in Russia, they should rating with the few possibilities that come their approach. Loads of that will probably be right down to Azmoun.

7. Achraf Hakimi (Morocco)

Age: 19 Place: Full-back Membership: Actual Madrid (Spain)

Hakimi was born in Getafe, Spain, however each his mother and father are from Morocco and he made his debut for the Atlas Lions on the age of 17, earlier than he made his senior debut for Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: At 19, Hakimi already has winner’s medals from the Membership World Cup and Champions League. He performed at right-back in each Actual’s matches towards Spurs within the latter competitors this season – and made 17 first-team appearances in all – however might begin at left-back for Morocco in Russia.

Former Actual boss Zinedine Zidane preferred him a lot he was completely happy to promote Brazil worldwide Danilo to Manchester Metropolis. Sufficient stated.

8. Andre Silva (Portugal)

Age: 22 Place: Striker Membership: AC Milan (Italy)

Silva, who has scored 12 targets in 22 video games for Portugal, joined AC Milan from Porto for £33m in the summertime of 2017

Conor McNamara: Silva continues to be discovering his approach at AC Milan and was primarily used in its place final season in Serie A, however he was given extra of an opportunity within the Europa League and scored six targets in eight begins in that competitors in 2017-18.

To this point in his worldwide profession he has averaged a purpose each three photographs, and apparently Wolves and Huddersfield are desirous about bringing him to the Premier League subsequent season.

Wherever he finally ends up enjoying his membership soccer, Cristiano Ronaldo has already stated Silva could be his long-term successor as Portugal’s foremost goalscorer.

9. Rodrigo Bentancur, Uruguay

Age: 20 Place: Midfielder Membership: Juventus (Italy)

Juve provisionally signed Bentancur in 2015 as a part of the deal that noticed Carlos Tevez transfer to Boca Juniors. He ultimately joined the Italian facet for £8m in July 2017

John Murray: Good issues are anticipated of this tall, two-footed midfielder who has simply completed his first season with Juventus and solely made his senior worldwide debut in October 2017.

I am anticipating Uruguay to do effectively and, in the event that they do, Bentancur might effectively get his probability to shine.

10. Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Iran

Age: 24 Place: Striker Membership: AZ Alkmaar (Netherlands)

Jahanbakhsh scored 21 targets and made 12 assists for AZ Alkmaar and have become the primary footballer from the Center East or Asia to complete as prime scorer in a serious European league

Man Mowbray: It could be a shock if Carlos Queiroz can information Iran out of the group stage above both Spain or his native Portugal, however in AZ striker Alireza Jahanbakhsh he has a participant of high quality who’s being linked with a transfer to the Premier League.

Positive, the Eredivisie is not the highest degree today, however to complete as prime scorer continues to be no imply feat – he is following some main gamers to the honour.

A purpose towards one or each of the large weapons in Group B may not get Iran by way of to the final 16, nevertheless it may get his Dutch membership facet a number of extra million euros later this summer time.

11. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Serbia

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Lazio (Italy)

Nicknamed the Sergeant, Milinkovic-Savic stands 6ft 4in tall. His mom was knowledgeable basketball participant and tall genes run within the household – his youthful brother Vanja is 6ft 8in is a goalkeeper who signed for Manchester United in 2014 however left after failing to safe a piece allow.

Steve Wilson: Born in Spain, Milinkovic-Savic has been an important success for Lazio – scoring 14 targets from midfield final season – and is reported to be on Manchester United’s purchasing checklist.

The 23-year-old has received each the Below-20 World Cup and the Below-19 European Championship along with his nation and is vying with Andrija Zivkovic of Benfica for the title of Serbia’s brightest younger factor.

Alistair Bruce-Ball: He solely has three caps for his nation as a result of the previous supervisor Slavoljub Muslin did not choose him, a lot to the chagrin of the Serbian followers. Russia may very well be his probability to shine.

12. Youri Tielemans, Belgium

Age: 23 Place: Midfielder Membership: Monaco (France)

Tielemans says enjoying judo from the age of 4 has helped him in his soccer profession, explaining: “It taught me so much as a result of it’s a must to assume. It’s a must to use your energy and play with the weak point of the opponent. It’s a must to use your head after which there’s this tradition of labor.”

Ian Dennis: This 21-year-old midfielder may go underneath the radar behind Belgium’s large names, solely 4 appearances in qualifying however has clearly been seen by a number of scouts.

I watched him play towards Manchester United within the Europa League final yr, when he was being tracked by Premier League golf equipment previous to his transfer to Monaco from Anderlecht. It’s simple to see why – he has all of the attributes, approach, imaginative and prescient and supplies actual drive from midfield.

13. Ismaila Sarr, Senegal

Age: 20 Place: Ahead Membership: Rennes (France)

Sarr is from the identical ‘Technology Foot’ academy in Senegal that produced Liverpool’s Sadio Mane. In addition to claiming he rejected Barcelona, Sarr was linked with Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund earlier than becoming a member of Rennes final summer time

Steve Wilson: A left-sided attacker who’s drawing inevitable comparisons to countryman Sadio Mane, Sarr has fought again effectively from a critical tendon damage in September 2017 to make the £15m Rennes paid Metz for him seem like cash effectively spent.

Sarr selected Rennes and common soccer forward of a transfer to Barcelona, which should have been a tricky however level-headed alternative. If he does in addition to many anticipate in Russia, then one other queue for his signature will probably be forming.

14. Uros Spajic, Serbia

Age: 25 Place: Centre-back Membership: Krasnodar (Russia)

Spajic joined Anderlect for £2m from French facet Toulouse in 2017, after spending a yr on mortgage with the Belgian facet

Ian Dennis: Spajic turned 25 this yr so is a little bit older than most on this checklist, however stays a superb prospect and I used to be shocked he lately headed east – he is simply signed for Russian facet Krasnodar for 7m euros from Belgian facet Anderlecht.

A reliable, courageous centre-back who is nice within the air, he’s a participant who’s alert to hazard and in addition completely happy to place his physique on the road.

15. Maxi Gomez, Uruguay

Age: 21 Place: Striker Membership: Celta Vigo (Spain)

Nicknamed ‘the Bull’, Gomez scored 18 instances for Celta Vigo within the season simply completed – together with strikes towards each Barcelona and Actual Madrid

Steve Wilson: With Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez round, getting enjoying time for Uruguay goes to be the issue for Gomez, who has been an enormous success in his first season in Europe with Celta Vigo.

An enormous-money transfer to Beijing Guoan which might reportedly have elevated his wages tenfold stalled in January as Gomez acquired chilly toes about China. He was clever to assume twice – additional fame and fortune are simply across the nook.

BBC Sport – Football ultras_FC_Barcelona

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