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dhowellafisheromen · 1 year ago

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Biles, Marchand headline memorable moments at Olympics' halfway point

PARIS (AP) — The Paris Olympics at the halfway mark have brought the world “The Pommel Horse Guy, " a rugby star and social media sensation who wants to be on reality show “Love Island” and “The Real John Wick” in the form of a 51-year-old Turkish shooter.

These Olympics have been full of memorable moments since the dazzling opening ceremony: the Seine River was too dirty for the triathlon swim to go off as scheduled, a gender controversy has emerged in women's boxing, and Leon Marchand led France with four golds in four swimming events, and of course, Simone Biles has dazzled while winning two gold medals with more still up for her taking.

Here's a look at some of the memorable moments at the halfway point of the 2024 Olympics.

Simone Shines

The first week of the Paris Games has belonged to Biles, who went into the halfway mark with gold medals in the women's team final and the all-around and drew a star-studded crowd every time she competed. She now has nine medals in her Olympic career, including six golds, more than any other American gymnast.

Biles still has three more events, too. The vault is Saturday night and she has the balance beam and floor exercise on Monday.

Three years after she pulled out of most of her events at the Tokyo Olympics to address her mental health, Biles has bounced back to become only the third woman to become a two-time all-around champion. She joined Larisa Latynina of the Soviet Union in 1956 and 1960 and Vera Caslavska of Czechoslovakia in 1964 and 1968.

And at 27, she's the oldest to finish atop the all-around podium since then 30-year-old Maria Gorokhovskaya of the Soviet Union won the first-ever Olympic all-around in Helsinki in 1952.

Illona Maher, Yusuf Dikec and other stars emerge

The world was introduced to Stephen Nedoroscik, aka “The Pommel Horse Guy,” when he helped the U.S. men’s gymnastics team win its first Olympic medal in 16 years.

The bespectacled 25-year-old from Worcester, Massachusetts, sat practically still during the men's team final waiting his turn to take to the pommel horse, his only event in Paris. When it was time to go, he delivered 45 seconds of brilliance.

The celebration began before his feet even hit the mat on his dismount and Nedoroscik was an instant meme on social media.

Ilona Maher, who became a star in Tokyo with her behind-the-scenes social media posts, led the U.S. to its first ever podium in rugby sevens.

Maher has used her platform to promote body positivity and to document life in the athletes' village, which she renamed “The Villa” in reference to her beloved reality show “Love Island”.

The unlikeliest star, though, has been Yusuf Dikec.

The 51-year-old Turkish pistol shooter went viral on social media for a seemingly casual attitude while shooting his way to a silver medal in mixed 10-meter air pistol. Commenters called him “The Real John Wick” after the Keanu Reeves character in “The Matrix” series.

Dikec was shooting in a T-shirt, one hand in his pocket, a seemingly standard pair of glasses and an impassive look on his face. He’s been likened to a regular guy competing at the Olympics, or even a hitman.

Gender Questions

An Algerian boxer is facing a gender outcry after her Italian competitor pulled out seconds into their bout.

Imane Khelif has faced vitriol from former U.S. President Donald Trump and Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni. Khelif was disqualified from the 2023 world championships after failing unspecified and not transparent eligibility tests for women’s competition from the now-banned International Boxing Association.

Khelif was assigned female at birth and it says so on her passport, which is the International Olympic Committee’s threshold for eligibility for boxing.

Marchand and Katie Ledecky rule at the pool

The pool has belonged to Marchand, who electrified a home crowd Friday night when he won his fourth gold by setting an Olympic record in the 200-meter individual medley. He also won gold in the 400-meter individual medley, 200-meter butterfly and 200-meter backstroke.

Ledecky will look to tie Michael Phelps as the only two swimmers to win four gold medals in the same event.

Ledecky is seeking a four-peat of the women’s 800-meter freestyle, an event she first won in the 2012 London Olympics. Another win would be the ninth Olympic gold of her career, which would be tied for second for the most gold medals in the Olympics, Summer or Winter, in any sport.

Phelps, who won the 200 individual medley four times, won 23 gold medals.

Opening ceremony controversy

The opening ceremony prompted a storm of outrage for a contentious scene featuring drag queens and other performers.

Although artistic director Thomas Jolly has repeatedly said that he wasn’t inspired by “The Last Supper,” critics interpreted part of the show as a mockery of Leonardo Da Vinci’s painting showing Jesus Christ and his apostles.

Now, Paris police have opened a hate speech investigation following a complaint from Jolly over death threats.

Stinky Seine

Organizers have been adamant in their insistence the swimming portion of the triathlon and the marathon swimming events next week could safely be held in the Seine River amidst health questions about the quality of the water.

After several delays for elevated levels of bacteria, the triathlon swims were held and the views played well on television as athletes cycled and ran by Paris’ finest attractions.

It was all part of an ambitious plan to clean up the long-polluted Seine, spending 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in infrastructure improvements. A few swim practice sessions needed to be scratched and the men’s race pushed back a day due to water quality.

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AP Olympics: https://apnews.com/hub/2024-paris-olympic-games

https://thescore.com/olym/news/3048113

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sainzofthecentury · 3 years ago

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I posted 985 times in 2022

320 posts created (32%)

665 posts reblogged (68%)

Blogs I reblogged the most:

@waggle100

@intoafandom

@chuckschippedchomper

@incredulouspasta

@krugstrash

I tagged 376 of my posts in 2022

#bruins lb - 203 posts

#boston bruins - 44 posts

#david pastrnak - 14 posts

#patrice bergeron - 10 posts

#jeremy swayman - 6 posts

#hampus lindholm - 5 posts

#brad marchand - 5 posts

#the boys won - 5 posts

#one shot - 4 posts

#nhl fluff - 4 posts

Longest Tag: 101 characters

#acting like he isn’t bouta turn around and crossscheck him in the head next time they play each other

My Top Posts in 2022:

this shirt makes me feel things

36 notes - Posted April 23, 2022

Black Tie

Pairing: Connor McDavid x reader

Type: Fluff

Warnings: None

Word Count: 1.1k

Summary: Every once in a while there was a black tie event hosted by the team that Connor had to attend. As a member of the Oilers organization you also had to attend. You and Connor both hated fake sipping champagne and talking to people you hardly knew. For the past two years that similarity drew you to each other. This year, though, had Connor feeling flirty.

Request: Request #29 with Connor McDavid? 👉🏼👈🏼 (from anon)

Fluff Prompt #29: “Who gave you permission to go out in public looking like that?”

~~~~

It was nearing the point in the evening when your social battery was dangerously close to zero. Like, blinking red about to be stranded in the middle of the ocean with no life preserver, dangerously close to zero. And if you knew Connor McDavid as well as you thought you did, his would be in the danger zone too.

“That time of the night, Y/N?” Zach chirped as you walked past him. You shot him a look and playfully flipped him off as you continued on your way to what would become your safe corner for the night. You sat down and tried your best to look like you didn’t want to jump out the window.

“I see the clock has struck midnight for the both of us,” the voice of your fellow introvert Connor McDavid had you genuinely smiling for the first time all night.

“Thank god,” you sighed as he sat down at the table across from you, placing his drink down in front of him. “It looks like you lasted longer than me this year.”

“I actually think we both tapped out at the same time,” Connor said, looking around for any sponsors he might have to hide from. “There are times I rethink my career choice and this is one of them.”

“Yeah,” you agreed, making eye contact with him. Like always, your stomach fluttered. “This industry isn’t the best if you’re not an extrovert.”

“I genuinely have no idea how Leon does it,” Connor said, looking over to see Leon Draisaitl in the middle of the room somehow managing three different conversations and one of them was in German. “Man is a god.”

“He has to be,” you agreed, shaking your head in awe. “There is literally no other explanation.”

Connor laughed and took a sip of his drink. He swallowed before turning his gaze onto you. Your cheeks heated up to the point you would have sworn your face was literally glowing.

“So what was the conversation that did you in?” with his question the party around you seemed to melt away.

“New camera equipment, believe it or not,” you answered.

“Really?” Connor was surprised. “I thought you loved getting new gear?”

“I do, believe me I do,” you worked for the Edmonton Oilers’ media department. Getting new gear before a season was like Christmas. “But there was just something about it tonight that I could not sit through.”

“Business conversations are the worst,” Connor agreed. “I couldn’t even explain what the one I just abandoned was about. I think it was skate laces? I don’t even know.”

“Who knew these black tie events could be so goddamn boring,” you said, eliciting a laugh from Connor.

“Agreed.”

Connor thought for a second before speaking again. He wasn’t sure if it was the amount of drinks he’d had at the party or if it was something else, but he had a little extra courage that had his threshold for stupidity so far up it was in danger of becoming part of the ballroom ceiling.

“Hey, wanna leave?”

“I’m sorry?” you looked at him in shock. You had been to countless of events like these and ended up in this scenario countless of times before but not once had Connor proposed the idea of ditching. “I know you won’t get fired but I still have my job to worry about.”

“Oh don’t worry about it,” Connor said as he stood up. Oh. He was serious. “If someone gives you a hard time just point them in my direction. I’ll say you were feeling sick and since I was with you you just asked me to take you home.”

“Alright, I guess that’s believable enough,” you answered and took his hand, allowing him to help you up from your seat.

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79 notes - Posted April 9, 2022

500th

Pairing: David Pastrnak x reader

Type: Smut

Warnings: Oral (f+m receiving), fingering, swearing, protected sex, hair pulling kink, cockwarming 18+ ONLY

Word Count: 1.1k

Summary: You knew David was close to 500 career points, but you didn't expect him to reach that milestone in his first game back after being out for three weeks. The good mood he was in when he got home somehow became an even better mood when he saw you in nothing but a pair of heels and his jersey.

Smut Prompt #8: “A beautiful sight, you wearing nothing but my jersey waiting for me” Smut Prompt #15: “Pull my hair”

A/N: I guess this is a part two to 200th. Also i am on my knees for pasta, literally would do anything for him

~~~~

David hummed to himself as he unlocked the apartment door and let himself in. He was in a good mood. His first game back after being injured against Detroit could not have gone better. He didn't expect to score the first goal of the game, but when you’re David Pastrnak anything can happen apparently.

That anything can include coming home to seeing your girlfriend laying in the middle of your bed wearing nothing but a very sexy pair of heels and your jersey. David dropped his bag on the floor, his jaw hanging open. He shamelessly raked his eyes up and down your body.

“What’s all this?” he asked once he found his voice.

“You had a big game,” you responded in the best sultry voice you could muster. “I thought you deserved a little reward.”

“A reward?” David hummed, a smirk pulling at the corners of his lips. He took a couple steps forward and knelt on the bed beside you. His finger tips lightly skimmed over your ankle. “A beautiful sight, you wearing nothing but my jersey waiting for me.”

“I thought you might like it,” you responded, pushing yourself to sit up and meet his lips. David kissed you fervently. You moaned against him, hand coming to cup the back of his head and hold him in place.

You used the leverage you had gained against him to flip him onto his back.

“What’s all this?” he asked, tucking his arm behind his head and watching you get to work unbuttoning his pants.

“You know how a milestone gets rewarded by now,” you smirked, pulling his pants and boxers down. His dick, hard and red, slapped against his stomach. David’s muscles tightened as the cool air of the room touched his tip.

You licked your lips, practically able to see his dick throbbing with want. The man was insatiable, and you were fully prepared to have a long night.

“Y/N, don’t just fucking look at it do something,” David’s voice was strangled.

“As you wish.”

He moaned, loud and long as you licked a thick stripe up the underside of his dick along the vein. He gathered your hair in a ponytail and gripped it tight. You brought your mouth down on him, taking as much as you could. His moans were music to your ears as you bobbed your head up and down. You hollowed your cheeks every once in a while, making him moan a little louder each time.

You knew David’s body so well that you could bring him to the edge and back three times before he started to get frustrated. And it wasn’t through his voice that you knew he was getting frustrated. It was when his hips would not stay still. He kept squirming, trying to find the right position in order to get some sort of relief. But every time he did you changed what you were doing.

It wasn’t until he gripped your hair a little bit tighter that you finally took pity on him. You gripped the base of his dick and gave him short but firm squeezes and alternated between gently sucking his tip and giving him little kitten licks. David’s stomach tightened as he came. His eyes screwed shut and he let out a strangled moan.

“Congratulations, baby,” your voice was hoarse as you crawled back up his body to whisper in his ear.

“You are going to be the fucking death of me,” David all but growled. He kissed you passionately, his lips claiming you as his own. You whimpered and let him push you onto your back. His hands traced your sides before reaching the hem of the jersey. He lifted it over your hips

“David,” you whimpered, snaking your hand into his hair as he lifted your legs onto his shoulders. You felt his breath on your dripping pussy before you felt his tongue. You jumped at the contact before allowing yourself to relax into his ministrations.

He knew your body as well as you knew his. It made sex that much more pleasurable. You squirmed as he switched between licking and sucking your clit and blowing cool air on it. He threw his arm over your hips to keep you still. You moaned louder than you had since he started and tugged on your hair.

David emitted a sound you’d never heard come from him before. He pulled away from your clit and looked up at you with dark, hooded eyes.

“Pull my hair,” he commanded. You shuddered at the sound of his voice but gave the roots of his hair another yank nonetheless. His eyes rolled back and his muscles tightened. “Fuck.”

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81 notes - Posted April 24, 2022

Friend From College

Pairing: Jeremy Swayman x reader

Type: Fluff

Word Count: 1.9k

Warnings: Swearing

Summary: Jeremy was quickly adopted by his new Bruins teammates. And that comes with being harassed by Brad Marchand and eventually Nick Foligno until you invite your closest friend down to Boston during Christmas break to meet your new teammates.

Request: Can you do 4 and 43 from fluff with swayman thank you in advance (from anon)

Fluff Prompt #4: “Is that my sweatshirt?” Fluff Prompt #43: “Will you two just kiss already?”

~~~~

Jeremy took a deep breath before walking into the locker room. For the past weeks, ever since Nick Foligno had walked in on him on FaceTime with you, he had been harassed about when he was “going to introduce us to your girlfriend, Swayman?” He was going to need all the luck he could get being around the team whenever there was even half a moment of silence.

“Good practice, Sway,” Patrice greeted him with a nod. Jeremy’s shoulders relaxed. Bergy was one of the only ones to not give him a hard time. Although he didn’t exactly take steps to stop the heckling whenever it started.

“Thanks,” Jeremy returned the greeting, taking a sip of his Dunkin coffee.

“Oh, hey, I have an extra ticket to the game tomorrow if you want it, Stephanie said she’d reserve the seat beside her,” Bergy said before leaving.

“Oh, sure,” Jeremy smiled. “Thanks, Cap.”

“No problem,” Patrice gave Sway a subtle wink before walking out to the equipment room.

Jeremy groaned. He knew exactly who Patrice wanted him to give that ticket to. But you were still in Maine with your family, you wouldn’t want to make that drive all the way down to Boston just for a hockey game. But then again, it was worth at least giving you a call, right?

“If I don’t call her they’re never going to let me forget it,” he sighed and picked up his phone, knowing that if one of the friends he’d made in Boston showed up tomorrow night with that ticket he would never live it down. He was pretty sure their next steps were going to be going through his phone, finding your number, calling you themselves, and telling you they thought Jeremy liked you. And he could never live with himself if that happened.

“Y/N! Your phone is ringing!” your little cousin yelled from the basement. You downed the rest of the drink in your glass before jogging down the stairs.

“Hello?” you answered, not even bothering to glance at the caller ID.

“Y/N!” Jeremy’s cheery voice was on the other end of the line. You smiled to yourself as you stepped into the toy closet to get away from the noise your younger family members were making.

“Thank god you called me,” you sighed. “I’m hiding from the kids. You gotta get me outta here, Jeremy.”

Jeremy’s chest warmed.

“Well lucky for you Bergy just offered me a ticket for the game tomorrow night if you want to come down,” he said, applauding himself for the smooth offer. He knew, though, that if any one of the guys walked in he would instantly crumble.

“Oh my god, please,” you were relieved. “I’m gonna drive down right now. Jeremy you have no idea how happy I am to get out of this reunion.”

“Anything for you, Y/N,” he said. “Let me know when you’re thirty minutes out. You can just come straight to my apartment, I’ll send you the address.”

“You’re a legend, Sway,” you said before hanging up and walking back up stairs.

“Who was that sweetie?” your mom asked as you reached for your keys.

“Jeremy,” you responded. “He invited me to the game tomorrow night. I’m gonna drive down this afternoon. I should be at his place by like eight. I’ll be back here on Monday.”

“Have fun!” she told you as you walked out the door, knowing you were going to take any escape you could to get away from the extended family in town for the weekend no matter what she said.

Jeremy was thankful that his mom forced him to buy one extra set of sheets than he thought he needed when he got home after practice. He was also thankful for his real estate agent for persuading him to get an apartment with a guest room. He set up the guest room before settling down on the couch.

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84 notes - Posted March 16, 2022

My #1 post of 2022

Bloodied and Bruised

Pairing: Matthew Tkachuk x reader

Type: Fluff

Warnings: Injury

Summary: Matthew wasn’t usually accident prone, but this morning’s practice had him beat up in more than one way. He’d taken a puck to the knee, causing him to limp for the rest of the day. And he’d gotten an accidental high stick to the face, causing a small but nasty cut just above his eyebrow. You knew it was bothering him more than usual after he begged you to stay with him.

Request: Hi can you write a Matthew Tkachuk imagine with the prompts 37 and 63 from your list where he had a rough practice and gets injured and you help bandage him up. You want to be there for him even though he usually keeps to himself but this time he needs comfort from his girlfriend with some cuddling please. Thank you! (from anon)

Fluff Prompt #37: “Quit being such a baby and let me put a new Band-Aid on your face” Fluff Prompt #63: “Can you- do you want to- please stay with me, I don’t want to be alone”

~~~~

The front door creaked, announcing Matt’s arrival home from practice. You grinned and hastily wiped your hands on the towel you had over your shoulder before tossing it down to the island. When you saw Matt standing at the end of the hallway, shoulders slumped and head down, you knew something was wrong.

“Matty, baby,” you hummed, brows furrowing in concern as you walked up to him. “What happened?”

“Got a little banged up,” he mumbled. You cupped your hand around his jaw and moved his head so you could get a close look at the cut above his eyebrow. A small white Band-Aid was overing it, but a few drops of blood had already seeped through it.

“I’m sorry, baby,” you wrapped your arms around his waist, expecting him to push you away like he always did when he was injured. But instead he melted into you, letting his head droop to your shoulder and his hands resting lightly on your hips. You knew the injury was bothering him.

“You’re really warm,” he said, his voice muffled by your hoodie.

“Come on, baby,” you took his hand and pulled him down the hallway to your bedroom. He followed like a puppy dog. You sat him down on the edge of the bed and went to retrieve the first-aid kit from where you’d stashed it under the sink.

“What are you doing?” he asked as he watched you open it and pull out a package of Band-Aids.

“Changing that Band-Aid,” you answered, flicking your eyes up to his cut. “There’s blood coming through it, if you keep it on it’ll get infected.”

Matt pouted up at you.

“Quit being such a baby and let me put a new Band-Aid on your face,” you said, crossing your arms over your chest. Matt smirked and kept his eyes on you as you carefully peeled off the white Band-Aid and replaced it with one of the new ones.

“All better?” he asked.

“All better,” you nodded and placed a gentle kiss over the Band-Aid.

You turned around, ready to head back to the kitchen to finish making the mac n’ cheese you had started, when Matt’s hand latched around your wrist. You turned around, eyebrow raised in question.

“Can you- do you want to- please stay with me, I don’t want to be alone,” he muttered, hanging his head. Your heart panged. There must have been something more to his injuries acquired at practice that a cut over his eye.

“Did something else happen?” you asked, sitting down on the bed beside him.

“It’s nothing,” he tried shrugging it off. “I just took a puck to the knee, that’s all. It’s not a big deal.”

You watched as he pulled up the leg of the shorts he was wearing. An ugly purple bruise was starting to get darker.

“I’m gonna go get you an ice pack,” you said, leaving before he got the chance to protest. When you got back you found his curled up in bed, cuddling a pillow.

A smile shadowed your lips as you placed the ice pack on the bruise that was slowly forming on his left knee. The second Matt felt you near him he tossed aside the pillow and wrapped his arms around you instead.

Matty was usually like a porcupine when he was injured, never wanting people around him. You had no idea what caused this change in him but you liked it and you didn’t want it to go back to the way it was. He almost never let you play with his curls but now he was humming in contentment as you raked your fingers through his hair and twisted the curls around your fingers.

276 notes - Posted February 5, 2022

Get your Tumblr 2022 Year in Review →

#tumblr2022 #year in review #my 2022 tumblr year in review #your tumblr year in review

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is6621 · 6 years ago

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Really, That Accurate? by Diana Flynn

When you hold your iPhone X (or any newer model) up to look at your notifications, you see that your phone automatically unlocks from face recognition. Now you’re probably thinking that that feature is pretty cool and makes getting into your phone super easy, which it does. The key here is ‘easy’. Back in the old days of “Touch ID”, you had to scan your finger and wait for the screen to unlock- how inconvenient! However, that was an intense source of privacy as no one else has your fingerprint. Now think to yourself - convenience or accuracy?

My mother had the iPhone 8 for a while, obviously, as her nosy kid, I added my fingerprint to her phone- easy, no problem. I heard that she got the iPhone 11 and my immediate thought was waaaait I can’t get into her phone anymore! While I was home this past weekend, my mom asked me to send a text for her, instinctively, I picked up her phone and started typing the text. As I was typing, I questioned why she didn’t have a password on her new phone- she looks at me real fast and says she does. So then it hit me: my face opened her phone! So obviously out of curiosity, I brought my sisters in and we were all trying to open each other's phones with our faces. A dangerous amount of times we could open the other one’s phone, including my mother’s. So this got me thinking - how accurate is facial recognition? I’d say we look alike, but not close enough to have the ability to open each others’ phones!

In the research I did, most people prefer face ID over Touch ID out of sheer convenience (I think my mom would have to disagree with this). But in reality, the facial recognition software is not as accurate as it should be.

I read an article in the Boston Globe last week about Amazon’s new facial recognition software “Rekognition”. Amazon is advertising this to police agencies to assist in their investigations. However, there was one issue while trying out the software - mugshots from the database were mistakenly matched with pro athletes from Boston sports teams such as the Patriots and the Bruins. For example, Brad Marchand (Bruins), Tacko Fall (Celtics), and James White (Patriots) were all matched with a mugshot from the database. New England Patriots player Duron Harmon, who was also misidentified, said: “If it misidentified me, my teammates, and other professional athletes in an experiment, imagine the real-life impact of false matches” (Boston Globe). He is completely right! This software needs to go through multiple updates before it is released for this type of use. But even if it is 99% accurate, is that enough? Apparently, during this initial test the software was set to an 80% confidence threshold, which was the default setting; Amazon is arguing with the company who did the testing, American Civil Liberties Union, that they did not use the highest setting (99% confidence threshold) and that is why there were 27 mistaken identifications of mugshots to professional athletes.

Now let's tie this into the newest software that might be taking over the business world. In a Washington Post Article, HireVue, a recruiting-technology firm, discussed a system that uses facial recognition software to “analyze their [candidates] facial movements, word choice and speaking voice before ranking them against other applicants based on an automatically generated “employability” score” (The Washington Post). This raises the question of how much knowledge an AI researcher has about the psychology of a human in this situation and an AI developer’s ability to detect all of these aspects from a human’s face. This runs into the same problem of facial recognition- how accurate is this really? People’s careers are on the line, and they may or may not get the job based on if they frown once or twice in the interview, even if the subject matter he/she is discussing with the interviewer requires a more depressed-face answer (yes, this was a very simplified example). This use of facial software in an interview takes away the personable aspect of the exchange between two people because the candidate is so focused on impressing the software and not the actual human being. There are definitely some good uses of this technology but I see more bad outcomes than good. In the end, this ties back to the question of convenience or accuracy? Sure, a company could go through 1,000 candidates faster with technology knocking off the ones that didn’t use 10 “big” and “fancy” words but what if one of those is an expert in a special type of technology your company is trying to integrate with its business model? You’d lose out on him.

The idea of facial recognition software is great, and it’s amazing that we are this technologically advanced to even have this software available, but for it to be more widely used and liked, it definitely needs to work on its accuracy.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2019/10/21/athletes-outlaws-the-software-not-sure/lCwfZSCyzlymLzX3NCwasK/story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/10/22/ai-hiring-face-scanning-algorithm-increasingly-decides-whether-you-deserve-job/

https://techbeacon.com/security/apples-face-id-no-match-multifactor-security

https://bgr.com/2018/12/17/iphone-face-id-vs-touch-id-patent-describes-iphone-support-for-both/#targetText=Apple%20chose%20Face%20ID%20over,and%20secure%20than%20fingerprint%20scanning.&targetText=The%20feature%20seems%20to%20indicate,%2C%20iPad%2C%20or%20something%20else.

http://www.mysmartcave.net/2019/05/17/creating-and-setting-up-an-amazon-rekognition-account/

https://www.psfk.com/2017/08/ai-matches-applicants-with-the-right-jobs-based-on-their-face.html

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ultradollarsstuff · 6 years ago

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This has been a serious wake up call

0 in orlando after late nani goal (2) And Naselsky, P. OTTAWA Justin Trudeau says he abandoned a proposed meeting with Donald Trump in Washington this week after the White House insisted that the prime minister first agree to a five year clause in a renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement. En revanche, les politiques sont entendus frquemment. Woolley emerged from the Oct. "This has been a serious wake up call," she said. Despite the fact that the population trend appears to be decreasing, the decline is not believed to be sufficiently rapid to approach the thresholds for Vulnerable under the population trend criterion (>30% decline over ten years or three generations). However, with the number one objective of conservation, environmental issues should be considered with priority when serious conflicts generate between environment and tourism.. Over 15 days, Manitoba RCMP, military aircraft and dive crews scoured the forests and rivers looking for the two. Certes ce n'est vraiment pas donn (un produit pour bobos ?) mais c'est le prix d'un travail artisanal, avec la parfaite traabilit d'ingrdients locaux de qualit. Otherwise I would have found them two and a half years ago. Was an emotional game, admitted Oystrick. 1 after posting its highest regular season win total since 1977. Ur sonj vat eo rak al lavaro se a zo c'hoazh gwir hiriv an deiz. I sit cross legged on a white mat spread on the bathroom floor and examine the rows of medication lined up on the shelf of the vanity neat piles of green and white boxes of blood thinners, a rainbow of pill bottles, painkillers worth thousands of dollars. But it isn necessary to take a spreadsheet approach to vintage information. All eligible entries from all three Rounds in this Sweepstakes will be combined into a single pool, and from that pool one winner will be selected in a random drawing on or about September 3, 2019. 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backroomblogs · 7 years ago

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Bruins beat Flyers 3-2 - Jimmer

Coming off of another big OT win, the Bruins were looking to keep the win streak going on Thursday night against Philly. Despite starting the season very shaky, including a stretch of 10 games without a win, Philly has somehow fought their way into the race for the Metropolitan Division. It was an exciting one from the the TD Garden, so let’s jump right in.

The Good

- Brad Marchand did it again. Marchy has been playing like a man on a mission lately, and especially since Patrice Bergeron went down with an injury. With 22 seconds left Marchand tucked home the game winner after digging up a loose puck off of a Zdeno Chara shot from the point. The goal, Marchand’s 29th of the season, was the 3rd GWG in a row for Marchand.

- The line of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Riley Nash continued to click tonight. Marchand and Nash both scored, while Pasta finished with 2 assists. With Bergeron out and Riley Nash filling in, this line has not missed a single beat. They have continued to be the catalyst for the offense, and have made the loss of Bergeron for the next few games much easier to deal with.

- Brian Gionta got his first goal as a Bruin tonight with a backhand finish of the breakaway. Gionta now has 4 points in his first 4 games, and is making a strong argument to remain in the lineup upon the return of Backes and Bergeron. It may mean he has to slide down to the 4th line and replace one of the wingers, but there is still some time so we will see how things play out.

- Tuukka looked real good coming back tonight after a quick little injury. Ask stopped 31 of 33 shots, and weathered the early storm that the Flyers brought. It’s good to see Rask continuing his great season to this point.

The Bad

- Nolan Patrick’s assist on the opening goal for Philly (scored by Voracek) was filthy. Honestly nothing you can really do to stop that play, but it’s just unfortunate it had to happen to the B’s.

- There was too many penalties tonight. It may have something to do with the refs (we’ll talk about them later), but you have got to recognize that if the refs are having a horrible night you have to be more careful. Thankfully Philly only connected on one PP goal, but 5 penalties (3 in the first period) is too many.

- The second goal the Flyers scored was all around bad. Allowing a shorthanded goal is never a good thing, and when you have a 2-1 lead in a game it is even worse. It was a weird bounce that jump started the Philly rush, which you can’t fully control, but Risk has got to stop that shot. It’s the only slip up Tuukka had all night.

The Ugly

- The refs. Just a terrible night for the boys in stripes tonight. I honestly have no idea what any of them were thinking. Some of the penalties were absurd, and then actual penalties were completely missed. The threshold for what was allowed and what wasn’t was never really established all night. Not a great showing at all.

The B’s win moves them to 5-0-0 on this homestand, and with a weak Chicago team coming in on Saturday afternoon the Bruins will look to finish undefeated before heading back on the road.

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gibsongirlselections · 5 years ago

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Bizarro Robin Hood: Taking from the Middle Class to Give to the Rich

On the (virtual) campaign trail, former vice president and presidential candidate Joe Biden offers voters the same “friend of the working class” pitch he’s offered over the course of his political career.

The former vice president and U.S. Senator has repeatedly railed against income inequality, but as voters have come to realize in elections past, campaign rhetoric rarely matches reality. Biden’s current “Build Back Better” agenda would result in massive giveaways to wealthy Americans and politically connected corporations rather than struggling Americans. Biden should replace these Robin Hood-in-reverse policies with a genuine agenda to help working class Americans.

It’s understandable that politicians and presidential candidates try to market themselves as down-to-Earth and relatable. In the midst of a struggling economy and crippling pandemic, Americans want elected officials who can empathize with their plight and offer realistic solutions. Too often, these “solutions” amount to a brazen giveaway of taxpayer dollars to well-off citizens. For example, subsidies targeting “renewable” technologies disproportionately benefit affluent households who would have made green purchases anyway.

According to a 2018 analysis by Pacific Research Institute scholar Dr. Wayne Winegarden, roughly 80 percent of electric vehicle (EV) tax credits accrue to households earning $100,000 or more. This misguided policy has not only benefited higher income households, but also already-subsidized automakers with record-high stock market valuations. This tax credit has been phased out for well-heeled automakers such as Tesla, since Tesla and other manufacturers have manufactured more than the initial subsidy threshold of 200,000 EVs. But, according to a statement by the Biden campaign, “Biden will restore the full electric vehicle tax credit to incentivize the purchase of these vehicles.” President Biden would likely push to make the tax credit open-ended, ensuring that manufacturers could continue to benefit from the credit even after producing hundreds of thousands of vehicles.

The EV giveaway is one of many Robin Hood-in-reverse policies championed by the presidential contender. Under Biden’s higher education policy, undergraduate federal student loan holders would only have to pay 5 percent of their discretionary income (over $25,000) toward loans over a twenty-year period. After twenty years, the remainder will be forgiven. That generous policy disproportionately benefits the top quartile of households with the highest earnings, who hold 34 percent of outstanding education debt according to a 2019 Urban Institute analysis. The proposal puts taxpayers on the hook for the loan debt of the wealthy.

For example, if a student from a wealthy household accumulates $150,000 in debt at a 4-year college and earns a comfortable $80,000 per year in discretionary income coming out of the college, that repayment would only equal $2,750 per year. Even if the student’s discretionary income reached $130,000 per year over the 20-year repayment period, taxpayers would still be subsidizing roughly $70,000 of the student’s tuition at the end of the payment period.

Even the presidential candidate’s progressive-sounding tax plan would spell disaster for America’s working families. President Biden would hike the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28 percent, which would result in higher prices, lower wages, and fewer opportunities for struggling Americans. According to a Tax Foundation analysis, raising the corporate tax rate to 28 percent would lead to 187,000 fewer jobs and result in a nearly 1 percent pay cut for workers. It’s little wonder that American Enterprise Institute scholars Kyle Pomerleau, Jason DeBacker, and Richard W. Evans conclude that, under the Biden plan, “The bottom 95 percent of taxpayers would generally face a tax increase due entirely to the corporate income tax increases.”

Biden hardly has a monopoly on costly, regressive policies. President Trump’s tariff policies have disproportionately hit households struggling to pay the bills on time. Levying more than $400 in annual trade taxes on middle-and-lower class families is a terrible plan, regardless of the political party responsible. Meanwhile, there have been troubling revelations that taxpayer dollars from the Paycheck Protection Program (championed by President Trump and both parties) funded the endeavors of rich celebrities such as Kanye West and Robert De Niro.

It’s up to each presidential candidate to assure hard-working Americans that they won’t be forced to foot sky-high bills and fund the lifestyles of their wealthier neighbors. But that’s a hard sell, given the political duopoly’s history of Robin-Hood-in-reverse policies. The onus is on the political class to prove that they’ll serve the working class.

Ross Marchand is the Vice President of Policy for the Taxpayers Protection Alliance.

The post Bizarro Robin Hood: Taking from the Middle Class to Give to the Rich appeared first on The American Conservative.

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thrashermaxey · 6 years ago

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Ramblings: Pastrnak Returns, Barkov Rolls On, & Scoring is Up and It Is Spectacular (March 20)

In a pivotal Eastern Conference battle, the Canadiens and Flyers met in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening. Montreal came into the contest losers of two straight and with just four points in their last six games. That run was pushing them closer to the 10th place, Flyers than the eighth-place, Blue Jackets.

Carey Price and Carter Hart both came to play, but it was the Habs who jumped out to a 2-0 lead half-way through the contest. Brendan Gallagher’s 31st of the year tied his previous career-best set a season ago, while Shea Weber converted his 12th tally. Sean Couturier got the Flyers on the board in the final frame on a power-play marker, but Max Domi sealed it into the empty net with under 90 seconds to play.

The win pulled the Habs to within a single point of Columbus for the final Wild Card spot but CBJ had a contest with the Flames later in the evening.

Let’s just jump right into that one to keep the suspense from building too high.

Calgary came into the night leaders of the West with 95 points despite being just 5-5-0 in their previous 10 games. They fell behind early in this one after Zach Werenski scored his 11th, but tallied the next three and never looked back. Dave Rittich stopped 33 of 35 to record his fourth straight victory. The loss leaves CBJ clinging to that final Wild Card spot.

Remember when Freddie Andersen was one of the best fantasy netminders? Yeah, neither do I. The Danish puck-stopper has been flipping the bird to his owners during the fantasy playoffs for the better part of two weeks. Heading into a Tuesday night matchup with the Preds, he had allowed 14 goals in three games.

He and the Maple Leafs were desperately looking to stop the skid, but it wasn’t to be. Brian Boyle gave the Predators a 1-0 lead at 4:47 of the first period. Wayne Simmonds boosted the Predators a 2-0 lead at 9:13 of the third period. Filip Forsberg scored an empty-net goal to make it 3-0.

Kyle Turris returned to the lineup after being a healthy scratch the previous two contests. He skated just 11:30 on the fourth line.

Ben Bishop returned from a brief injury stint to try and rekindle his shutout-streak. He was going up against a red-hot Sasha Barkov and the Florida Panthers so it was going to be a tough task.

The shutout streak ended just two minutes into the contest, lasting a total of 233:04. Not too shabby though. And of course, it was Barkov who found the back of the net – his first of two goals on the evening. The 22-year-old is absolutely feeling it these days.

{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sasha Barkov is on another planet right now. He has 17 points over his current 7-game streak. <br><br>He’s set career-highs for goals (32), assists (53), and points (85). <br><br>And there’s still 9 games left to be played. </p>— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hockey_Robinson/status/1108192231041589248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2019</a></blockquote>

He’s one of the most underrated players in the game today. Barkov has just six total penalty minutes while averaging 22:28 per contest. That mark trails only Connor McDavid (23:03) and Leon Draisaitl (22:36) as the Oilers ride their only horses right into the dirt.

The best is yet to come for the Finnish pivot.

Bishop and the Stars weren’t shaken by the early goal against. The top line took over from there, with Jamie Benn (1+2), Alex Radulov (2+1), and Tyler Seguin (0+4) combining for 10 points. The Stars took this one 4-2 and are now five points up on the Wild and looking set to rejoin the playoff picture.

Here is a look at the Stars' stats since the infamous 'horseshit' comments by the team's CEO:

Tuukka Rask recorded what might have been the easiest shutout of his career. The Finnish netminder turned aside just 13 shots as the Bruins blanked the Islanders 5-0 on Tuesday evening.

The big news in this one was the return of David Pastrnak. After missing nearly six weeks with an injured thumb, the 22-year-old was back to his old spot on the top line next to Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. He skated 14:19 with three shots on goal. That entire line was rested as this one was never in doubt.

There were reports that Jake DeBrusk would miss this game due to injury, but he managed to dress and buried his 23rd of the campaign. As expected, Danton Heinen lost his cushy spot in the top six and was skating on the left side of Sean Kurlay – who happened to pot two markers in this game, and Chris Wagner.

Heinen nabbed an assist in this one, but skating on the third line doesn’t present a lot of reasons to expect the production to continue.

The Penguins received a massive boon as Kris Letang returned to the lineup after missing nearly a month. The team’s top blueliner didn’t miss a beat as he scored a goal, recorded four shots, 12 penalty minutes and skated a team-high 26:45. Jake Guentzel continued his terrific season by posting a goal – his 37th of the season, and an assist. The 24-year-old may be clicking on 18.7 percent of his shots this season, but he is no stranger to high conversion rates.

Here’s a tweet from the tail-end of his rookie season in 2016-17

{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In 88 combined regular season & playoff games this season in AHL/NHL, Jake Guentzel has scored 46 goals on 209 shots (22% rate). <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Penguins?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Penguins</a></p>— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hockey_Robinson/status/865357948322586624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 19, 2017</a></blockquote>

There aren’t too many players I would feel comfortable projecting to hang around the high-teens for conversion rates; Guentzel is one of them. His living next to Sid doesn’t hurt that one bit.

It wasn’t enough though, as the Pens fell 3-2 to the Canes in a shootout. Carolina is now two points back of the Pens for the third spot in the Metro. They have two games in hand.

Of note, Sebastian Aho led all skaters with 28:27 – including 3:54 in overtime. That’s a career-high for the 21-year-old.

Petr Mrazek stopped 33 of 35 to record his sixth quality start in his last seven starts. He’s battled all the way back to a .909 save percentage on the season. Not bad for a throwaway.

The Caps waltzed through the Devils 4-1 on Tuesday. But to be fair, nearly everyone does that to New Jersey these days. Their roster is a who’s who of AHL players and they lost Kyle Palmieri to injury in the first frame. He did not return.

The tank is rolling deep.

Phoenix Copley made 20 saves, Brett Connolly scored a goal and an assist, and Alex Ovechkin recorded the rare no-shot game.

In a battle between two not-very-good teams, Jimmy Howard made 41 stops to help the Red Wings defeat the Rangers 3-2 at Madison Square Gardens.

Fresh off of signing his first professional contract, and receiving the BIG10 Conference Player of the Year Award, Taro Hirose skated in his first NHL contests. He grabbed an assist on Frans Nielsen’s first-period goal.

Andreas Athanasiou scored two goals to give him five in his previous four games and 28 on the campaign.

Jaden Schwartz scored three and added a helper, David Perron chipped in with two goals and an assist as the Blues feasted on the Oilers 7-2. Jordan Binnington made just 15 saves to improve his record to 18-4-1 with a 0.930 save percentage.

McDavid saw his eight-game, multi-point, and 12-game point streaks come to an end.

We all know scoring is up. But just how high is remarkable. Let’s take a gander at the five seasons prior to this one and see how the quality and quantity of production has fluctuated. To keep things simple when comparing to 2018-19, I’ve set the games played minimum at 55.

Way back in 2013-14, we witnessed 11 skaters record a point-per-game or better. Sidney Crosby led the way with 1.30 points-per-game. Four skaters played at a 90-point pace or better. 2014-15 saw eight skaters break the point-per-game mark with Jamie Benn leading the way with 87-points.

2015-16 slipped even further. Just seven skaters played at the point-per-game pace. Patty Kane ran away with the Art Ross with his 106 points. No other skater played at a 90-point-pace. 2016-17 was nearly identical. Eight skaters at or above the point-per-game mark, with McDavid the only triple-digit producer, and Crosby the only other player to play above a 90-point pace.

Last season we began to see a shift for the good. A whopping 24 skaters clicked above the point-per-game mark. We had three 100-plus point seasons from McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Claude Giroux. Meanwhile, we had eight others produce at or above the 90-point threshold.

The good times have certainly continued to roll in 2018-19. With just 10 games remaining on the schedule for most clubs, we have 35 players above the point-per-game mark. We have already witnessed three players crack the 100-point barrier, and seven more are on pace to join them by early April.

Kucherov is on pace to record the most points in a campaign since Teemu Selanne dropped 132 back in 1991-92.

2017-18’s 2.97 average goals-per-game represented the highest mark since the 2005-06 season when penalty calls were… actually called on a regular basis thanks to the lockout. This season has taken it a step further with a 3.03 goal-per-game average.

We’re not back to the four-goal average we saw in 1981-82 (I use the word ‘saw’ loosely as I wasn’t even a glimmer in my papa’s eye at that point), but we are slowly crawling back to the gaudy totals of the early 1990s before the clutch and grab era took over. And it’s not due to the referees calling things either. The league has steadily slowed it’s power-play opportunities from a high-water mark of 5.85-per-game in 2005-06 to the 2.98 we’re seeing this season.

What’s the difference? Well, teams are shooting a bit more. But what’s really driving things can only be explained by an increase in performance. The young talent that enters the game on a yearly basis has made life very difficult on oppositions coaches and goaltenders. Let’s push to embrace this style, and push for more power-plays in the future. One day, I’d like to draft a player who has a legit chance at posting 150-plus points.

Dare to dream, people. Dare to dream.

Follow me on Twitter @Hockey_Robinson

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-pastrnak-returns-barkov-rolls-on-scoring-is-up-and-it-is-spectacular-march-20/

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othersportsnews-blog · 8 years ago

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Authentic or not? Gio Gonzalez has a day to keep in mind - SweetSpot

New Post has been published on https://othersportsnews.com/authentic-or-not-gio-gonzalez-has-a-day-to-keep-in-mind-sweetspot/

Authentic or not? Gio Gonzalez has a day to keep in mind - SweetSpot

It must have been Jose Fernandez out there on his twenty fifth birthday, making an attempt to shut out a no-hitter in opposition to Washington Nationals, possibly even pitching what could have been a astonishing Marlins group into to start with area.

In its place, Fernandez’s family and newborn daughter visited Marlins Park for the to start with time considering that his death. Teammates still left birthday needs on Twitter. Miami is nowhere in close proximity to a playoff location. And his fantastic close friend Gio Gonzalez was in the highlight, back again in the town the place he grew up and graduated large college from, getting a no-hitter into the base of the ninth. Gonzalez failed to get it — Dee Gordon led off the inning with a line-push single into centre field — but it was unforgettable evening for the veteran lefty.

“Tonight was a lot more of an psychological evening, a unique evening,” Gonzalez reported through the televised write-up-recreation job interview. “I received to see the Fernandez family and what a evening.”

Gonzalez, who attended Fernandez’s funeral final September, was at a comfortable 103 pitches getting into the ninth, but Gordon available at a one-one curveball that was just off the plate to split up the no-hitter. Pretty fantastic pitch for Gonzalez, bad final result. With a slim one- guide, Dusty Baker turned to the bullpen and Sean Doolittle closed it out, finding Giancarlo Stanton to strike into a double enjoy for the to start with two outs.

Gonzalez became the 3rd pitcher to get rid of a no-hitter in the ninth inning this time, signing up for Kyle Freeland and Mike Foltynewicz, although the Marlins’ Edinson Volquez has the a person no-hitter.

Anyone who does not luv viewing Standard Time Nats video games in ’17, no matter whether they score 23 or acquire one- w Gio’s in close proximity to no-no, just does not get it.

— Thomas Boswell (@ThomasBoswellWP) August one, 2017

Gonzalez is acquiring a quietly terrific time, improving to nine-five and lowering his Period to two.sixty six — the 3rd-most effective in the Countrywide League. He has extended relied on that significant sweeping curveball, and there is certainly very little in his peripherals that counsel he is doing anything distinct as his strikeout and wander costs are right at his career norms.

The two outlier quantities are his .245 BABIP, nicely beneath his career mark of .297, and an 85.one p.c strand price that is second between certified starters to Clayton Kershaw. So he is most likely been a minimal fortunate, but he is also been fantastic and he is slotted in easily as the team’s No. two or 3 starter in the postseason, based on the place Stephen Strasburg‘s well being sits after Oct rolls all around.

I was contemplating of this although viewing the ultimate innings of this recreation as nicely: No person considers Gonzalez a star, whilst he has produced two All-Star groups, but his career would be a terrific consequence for any of the potential customers traded on deadline day or earlier in the thirty day period.

He has 111 career wins and 25. WAR so considerably in his career. Which is a far better career than 99 p.c of important leaguers. This will be his eighth straight time of 27-additionally commences and his fourth of 4-additionally WAR, a reminder that for pitchers it is really normally basically about finding a way to continue to be healthful.

Baseball The us experienced a research that appeared at all potential customers traded in July from 2003 to 2012 and discovered that fewer than 20 p.c of them pan out — with a pretty low threshold of two seasons in the majors and a constructive career WAR. Definitely, even fewer reach the heights Gonzalez has obtained. Which is a reminder that A’s admirers or Rangers admirers must continue to be cautiously optimistic about the returns for Sonny Grey and Yu Darvish.

Most of us are unable to even strike .485 in sluggish-pitch softball. The Astros pounded the Rays — a unusual bad start off by Alex Cobb, who has largely been lights out of late — as Jose Altuve went two-for-4 to raise his time common to .368 although finishing July with a .485 common. The highest averages in a thirty day period of the enlargement era (considering that 1961), bare minimum seventy five at-bats:

Todd Helton, Rockies, Could 2000: .512

Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers, June 2004: .five hundred

George Brett, Royals, July 1980: .494

Rod Carew, Twins, June 1977: .486

Jose Altuve, Astros, July 2017: .485

Wade Boggs, Pink Sox, June 1987: .485

Meanwhile, Aaron Decide strike his MLB-primary thirty fourth household run and drew two walks as the Yankees defeat Michael Fulmer and the Tigers. MVP race update:

Altuve: .368/.430/.577, 15 HR, sixty one RBI, 74 operates, 6. WAR

Decide: .303/.429/.639, 34 HR, seventy five RBI, eighty three operates, five.two WAR

The WAR totals are getting into Monday. Decide strike .224/.350/.447 with six household operates in July, in section for the reason that his strikeout price rose from 29 p.c in Could and June to 38 p.c. His BABIP also regressed from in excess of .450 those people two months to .310. There is very little alarming in this article, just a young participant going by means of standard swings of productiveness, particularly a person with a large strikeout price.

1 knock on Decide was that he is hitting .206 in the ninth inning with a person household run and .234 in the eighth inning with two household operates. Initial of all, we are conversing about 86 plate appearances. A far better gauge of his late-recreation productiveness is “late and shut,” and Decide is hitting .271/.442/.492 in those people scenarios. Altuve, in fewer plate appearances, has been lethal, hitting .487/.565/.821 (46 PAs). Decide has been high-quality, but Altuve has elevated his recreation so considerably in those people clutch at-bats. One thing to continue to keep in brain as we evaluate the MVP race later in the time.

So this was awesome. As Adrian Beltre stepped up for his to start with at-bat, Felix Hernandez gave his close friend and previous teammate a hug of congratulations for Beltre’s 3,000th strike:

Authentic realize actual. 🐐 👑 pic.twitter.com/BgmEG7NsEl

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) August one, 2017

Hernandez struggled early as the Rangers took a 4- guide immediately after two innings, but the Mariners rallied for a 6-4 victory as Robinson Cano drove in two operates in the ninth to climb in excess of .five hundred. David Phelps received 5 outs, all on strikeouts, and Edwin Diaz closed it out, firing a a hundred-mph fastball past Rougned Odor for his 20th help save. This recreation kicks off a stretch in which the Mariners will enjoy 21 of 28 video games on the street.

Who requirements to make a deal when you have Rafael Devers? The 20-calendar year-aged 3rd baseman went 4-for-4 for the Pink Sox. Pleasurable checklist in this article:

Rafael Devers is the 5th participant in Pink Sox record with a 4-strike recreation just before turning 21 (by using @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/mxHfbql4Ia

— ESPN Stats & Data (@ESPNStatsInfo) August one, 2017

In other information of top rated potential customers/young players, Yoan Moncada experienced a awful collision with Willy Garcia and both equally players still left the recreation. Moncada is day-to-day with a knee contusion although Garcia will be re-evaluated Tuesday immediately after suffering a head contusion. Ultimately, the Mets introduced shortstop Amed Rosario will be identified as up and make his important league debut on Tuesday at Colorado.

Trade deadline wrap-up. I wrote about my winners and losers in this article although Bradford Doolittle breaks down the significant Yu Darvish trade for the Dodgers and Andrew Marchand claims finding Sonny Grey usually means the Yankees are the Yankees again.

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thrashermaxey · 7 years ago

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15 Fearless Forecasts for the 2018-19 Season

Today marks the beginning of the NHL season, a.k.a. Fantasy Hockey Christmas, when everyone is convinced their players will bestow upon them great gifts and not end up being lumps of coal. It also means predictions abound; and here you get my 15 (yes, I’m doing 15 again) Fearless Forecasts for the 2018-19 season. My 2017-18 forecasts had more hits and near misses than ever before, so I’ve got my work cut out for me to keep my predictions audacious yet my track record still somewhat solid.

Before I get to the actual forecasts, let me once again reinforce a couple of important things. These are fearless fantasy forecasts, which means they’re supposed to be bold yet at least plausible, plus fantasy relevant, as highlighted in the explanation for each. Also, you should assume all skaters involved will play 75+ games and no netminders will suffer a major injury. With that out of the way, here we go! Also, there’s a forums poll to vote on which of these will come true.

1) All three Vezina Trophy finalists will never have previously been a finalist

For fantasy purposes, what I’m saying is be prepared for a changing of the guard among top NHL/fantasy netminders, as Pekka Rinne, Devan Dubnyk, Tuukka Rask, Henrik Lundqvist, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Jonathan Quick all will not be nominees this year. My primary reasoning is simple – each is now past what last summer I surmised is the peak age for goalies.

My prediction also means I see Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck (both of whom were first time finalists last year) coming back to earth somewhat. For Vasilevskiy it boils down to him still yet having shown he can be a top netminder for an entire campaign (his GAA was 2.77, 2.89, 4.04, 3.03 in the last four months of the season), while for Hellebuyck it’s because of the added pressure of his new contract and playing for what is now a legitimate cup contending team. And I don’t see a comeback for previous winner Carey Price, whom I’m not sure will ever be the same post-injury plus will have a tire fire of a team in front of him. Previous finalist Ben Bishop likely will be hurt by the departure of goalie-friendly Ken Hitchcock in Dallas. And lastly, I’m also ruling out previous winner Braden Holtby since Stanley Cup hangovers are apparently real for netminders, as it’s been nearly 20 seasons since a reigning Cup winning team produced a Vezina finalist the following season.

Who do I think will end up being finalists? For the record I’ll go with three of Antti Raanta, John Gibson, Frederik Andersen, Matt Murray, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Martin Jones.

2) Mathew Barzal will outpoint John Tavares

Yes, I realize this happened last season and Michael Clifford has already mentioned it in his Ramblings; but I still think the vast majority of pundits have Tavares doing even better in Toronto, especially after his successful preseason, and Barzal shedding points. This includes Dobber’s Fantasy Guide, which has Tavares at 87 points and Barzal at 74.

But there will only be so many points to go around in Toronto; and Mike Babcock may opt to have Tavares center a 1A line, with Auston Matthews manning a 1B top line. Let’s also not forget Babcock is stingy with ice time. Last season Tavares averaged 19:56 per game, of which 3:10 was on the PP. In Toronto, the highest ice time for any forward in 2017-18 was Matthews at a mere 18:08 per game, and he also led the way with just 2:17 per game on the PP. So those who foresee Tavares manning a loaded PP unit that skates for 3+ minutes per game, cancel those plans. Once the regular season starts it’ll be two units with neither one receiving considerably more time versus the other.

In stark contrast, Barzal now becomes “the guy” for the Islanders. Of course the concern is whether he can truly step in for Tavares, particularly with defenses now being able to key in on his line and with the potential for a dreaded sophomore slump. But Barzal just might mesh well with Josh Bailey, with whom he’s been lining up with this preseason, as Bailey and Barzal shared the ice for only 10% of their even strength shifts last season yet Bailey scored 15% of his even-strength points with Barzal on the ice.

Also, although it’s not predictive data, there’s the fact that since 2000-01 only one other center age 20 or older scored 85+ points as a rookie: Evgeni Malkin, whom it just so happens bested his rookie output of 85 points (i.e., exactly what Barzal scored) by 21 in posting 106 points as a sophomore. What’s more, Malkin did so when Sidney Crosby missed 29 games; so there’s precedent for Barzal stepping up big time in his sophomore campaign to fill the role of a departed/injured star.

3) Ilya Kovalchuk will score 35+ goals, but under 55 points

In each of the five campaigns he spent in Russia since abruptly leaving the NHL prior to the 2013-14 campaign, Kovalchuk tallied more assists than goals. And in all his NHL seasons he never once finished with even ten more goals than assists, posting only 18 more goals than assists for his NHL career to date (417 G, 399 A). Moreover, of the last seven instances of wingers age 35+ (Kovalchuk is 35 years old) who scored 35 or more goals in a season, six had more assists than goals in the same campaign.

So why am I predicting Kovalchuk will put up Cy Young stats for the 2018-19 campaign, when it’s not really in character with his past numbers nor with what other aging goal scorers did in their twilight years? It largely boils down to a perfect storm of sorts between Kovalchuk’s power-play specialization and the team’s need in that exact area.

Kovalchuk, who led the NHL in average power-play time per game among forwards a whopping six seasons in a row during his first NHL tenure, is clearly a power play specialist and figures to be deployed prominently with the man advantage. But beyond that, in the last five seasons no LA forward has tallied more than 11 PPGs in a season, so they need a finisher when it comes to the man advantage. Kovalchuk will be looked upon to fill LA’s PPG void, and my take is he’ll be more than up to the task of doing so, in the process padding his goal total to an extent that it will dwarf his assists.

4) No more than five goalies will get 5+ shutouts

Over the past three seasons the number of goalies who had 5+ shutouts was 8 (2015-16), 9 (2016-17), and 7 (2017-18). But prior to that, there was a stretch of six straight seasons where 10+ goalies had five or more per season, with 12+ goalies having 5+ shutouts in five of those six campaigns. So why would the number shrink even more than 2017-18, when scoring was already its highest in many seasons?

For one, scoring could go even higher, as many atop the 2017-18 leaderboard are still in peak scoring years. Beyond that, the NHL doesn’t figure to have many terrible teams. Sure – Montreal and Ottawa should have poor records like they did last season, but probably not be much worse. That’s important, since when the dust settled on 2018-19 only one team had fewer than 200 goals scored, namely Buffalo with 198, and they should be vastly improved for 2018-19. Looking back over the previous two seasons, there were always two (or even more) truly dreadful teams, with two squads potting 186 or fewer goals in 2015-16, and three with 180 or fewer in 2016-17. In other words, there will be fewer cakewalk games in 2018-19 for goalies to rely upon to pad their shutout numbers.

Add to that the somewhat condensed schedule to accommodate each team’s bye week, plus teams being more conservative than ever in terms of regulating goalie starts. Then there’s, as noted above in my first fearless forecast, the aging crop of former great NHL netminders whose skills – including shutout prowess – are eroding. All these factors should result in the number of goalie shutouts dropping enough for this forecast to come true.

5) The NHL’s highest scoring forward teammates will be two of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron

I know that by my own informal research Marchand and Bergeron are past peak age for NHL forwards, but what can’t be ignored is Bergeron, Pastrnak and Marchand’s output during the Bruce Cassidy era. Bergeron’s 2016-17 consisted of 29 points in 52 games, then 24 in 27 under Cassidy, Pasta had 43 points in 48 games pre-Cassidy, then 46 in 47 after the new coach was installed, while Marchand had 55 points in 55 games before ending with 35 in 30 under Cassidy. So since Cassidy took over, Marchand has 115 points in 93 games, while Pastrnak and Bergeron each sit just below the point-per-game threshold (106 points in 109 games for Pasta, 87 in 91 for Bergeron).

And beyond that, Marchand and Bergeron both missed time last season, which likely cost all three of them points, what with Marchand and Pastrnak having to settle for Riley Nash as a center for a stretch of time and Bergeron and Pasta making due with Danton Heinen or Anders Bjork as a second winger while Marchand was out of the lineup. If the three able to play an entire season together under Cassidy, then the sky could be the limit; and when the dust settles, two of the three might just form the best NHL forward duo in terms of point production.

6) Zach Parise will score 70+ points

It wasn’t long ago that Parise was an elite fantasy winger who was consistently being drafted within the top 50 picks in roto and H2H leagues. Fast forward to now and Parise, who turned 34 years old during the offseason, has scored a mere 66 points in 111 games during his last two injury-plagued seasons for Minnesota, leaving him to be forecasted to score at a mere 47 point pace in the Fantasy Guide and as of this past weekend was being selected around spot 165 in Yahoo leagues, after the likes of Conor Sheary and Tomas Hertl.

But things might not be as bad as they seem. For one, Parise had 16 points in his final 20 games to end 2017-18, firing 59 SOG despite taking the ice for an average of only 16:15 per game during that stretch. Also, although it’s true that Jason Zucker’s break out could serve as a roadblock for Parise being the top LW for the Wild, let’s not forget that the team ices two solid lines and PP units, ensuring that if Parise’s game is up to the task he’ll still have a spot to produce.

Beyond that, we know the Wild are more than happy to let deserving grey beards push youngsters aside if warranted. Look no further than teammate Eric Staal, who’s just three months younger than Parise and who himself posted 76 points last season after having surprised the fantasy world by rebounding from 33 points in 65 games in 2015-16 to 65 in 82 contests in 2016-17. I’m certainly not advocating that you draft Parise among 70-point players; but don’t entirely disregard him on draft day, as his strong finish to last season, his motivation to succeed given his large paycheck, and his ability to produce in past years (67 point scoring pace from 2013-14 through 2015-16 for the Wild) could make him the next………Eric Staal.

7) At least ten teams will score 10+ Shorthanded Goals

Over the past five seasons the numbers of teams scoring 10+ SHGs has been, in reverse chronological order, 5, 5, 6, 2, and 5. So why do I see the number spiking to ten this season? First, more and more teams are embracing a 4F, 1D powerplay, and that either means a 1-3-1 orientation with just one player back to guard against a breakaway, or a second point man who’s normally a forward. In either case, it paves the way for teams on the PK to get shorthanded tallies.

The second reason is teams are embracing the idea of using their top scorers to kill penalties. Just last season Anze Kopitar, Mikko Koivu and Brayden Point has over 2:00 each per game on the PK, and more than a dozen forwards who scored 60+ points (or at a 60+ point full season past) in 2017-18 were out there for at least 90 seconds of PK duty per game, including Dylan Larkin (1:59 per game), Mikael Granlund (1:55), Sean Couturier (1:54), Dustin Brown (1:51), Patrice Bergeron (1:49), Brad Marchand and Vincent Trocheck (1:48 each), Aleksander Barkov (1:45), Max Pacioretty (1:43), Reilly Smith (1:40), William Karlsson (1:38), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1:37), John Tavares (1:34), plus Ryan O’Reilly and Tyler Seguin (1:33 each). With that much talent seeing that much time killing penalties – not to mention the other great players getting a minute or more – plus the proliferation of 4F, 1D PPs, teams will be less shy about deploying their top players on the PK. Accordingly, there will be more shorthanded goals scored, enough I think to essentially double the high from the past five seasons.

8) J.T. Miller will outpoint Steven Stamkos

I consider this a fearless forecast, not just because of past results but also the Fantasy Guide predicting 86 points for Stamkos versus only 72 for Miller. Last season Stamkos finished with 86 points after 20 in only 17 games during an abbreviated – due to injury – 2016-17. But last season’s totals are deceiving, as he started with 35 points in 20 games, meaning he tallied only 51 in his final 58 contests. And the 2016-17 injury was his second major one, with him posting only 136 points in 159 contests in the two seasons immediately following his first. Stamkos also turns 29 this season, and thus likely has already peaked.

As for Miller, he admittedly has nowhere near the resume of Stamkos, having posted 58 points last season to best his previous career high of only 56. But Miller will be turning 26 this season and thus is likely reaching his peak, plus he ignited for 20 points in 22 games upon being traded to Tampa. And Miller not only staked out a spot on the potent Tampa PP1, taking the ice for 59% or more of its man advantage minutes in eight of the team’s last ten regular season contests, but seven of those 20 fourth quarter points came on the PP, versus a mere four for Stamkos, through whom the PP used to be run.

Is Stamkos more naturally talented than Miller. No question he is. But nearing age 30 and following two major injuries, the truth is other than a run of 17 games in 2016-17 and 20 games in 2017-18, Stamkos has been a 70-point player since 2014-15. It might just be that Miller, armed with a fresh new $5.25M per season contract, emerges as the #2 weapon for the Lightning, outscoring Stamkos in the process.

9) Philipp Grubauer will finish within the top four in SV% among 40+ game NHL netminders

One of my major hits last year was predicting that Antti Raanta would finish within the top five in netminder save percentage, with him going on to lead the league! So I figured I’d go to the well again for 2018-19, this time selecting Grubauer, but making it a slightly bolder prediction by saying he’d finish in the top four, not top five.

And guess what – my logic in making the prediction is largely the same, as Raanta is first in the NHL in even strength save percentage since 2014-15, but guess who’s second? None other than Grubauer. And although he’s ostensibly walking into a 1A/1B situation in Colorado, I see him easily seizing the starting job by the all-star break over UFA to be Semyon Varlamov and, when all is said and done for 2018-19, finishing in the top four in save percentage among NHL netminders who play in 40+ games.

10) James van Riemsdyk will score more goals than Patrik Laine

Last season Laine potted 44 goals, to JVR’s 36, with those 36 tallies being 17% higher than JVR’s previous career best of 30. So why do I think JVR can outsnipe perhaps the purest young and up and coming goal scorer in the league this season? Goals per 60 minutes rates, and linemates.

What do Brad Marchand, Vladimir Tarasenko, Sidney Crosby, and David Pastrnak all have in common? They scored more goals that JVR’s 65 over the past two seasons yet each also had a lower goals per 60 minutes than JVR’s 1.55, which was seventh best among all NHLers who played 140+ games during that span. Just last season JVR potted 36 while playing only 14:54 per game. And if we go by his 1.79 G/60 from 2017-18 alone and project that to 18 minutes per game – voila, the result is 44 goals.

And JVR is coming back to Philly at what seems like a perfect time in that Wayne Simmonds might be dealing with after-effects of injuries that limited his effectiveness last season, plus is now 30 years old and could be looking at a lesser role, particularly as he’s set to be a UFA. Moreover, with the money they’re paying JVR, it’s all but a lock that at ES and/or on the PP he’ll play alongside one or more of Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek, who each dish out assists more so than score goals.

Then there’s Laine, who although a staple – and feared weapon – on PP1, is a second liner at even strength. And not just that – a second liner who lost the center (Paul Stastny) who helped him explode for 17 goals in his final 23 games last season. Now Laine most likely will be back to being centered by Bryan Little, who, although likely to produce better than last season, is a step down from Stastny both in general and in terms of chemistry with Laine.

And whereas JVR’s ice time should spike, Laine’s will likely continue to lag due to the emphasis placed on the Winnipeg top line. Sooner or later Laine will be on that top line, at which point the sky will be the limit; yet for now, best to temper expectations. While we’re on the subject of the Flyers……….

11) Philadelphia will finish within the top three in team goals scored

Most prognosticators, including Dobber himself, have top Flyer scorers each shedding points versus last season, which in turn would translate to the team’s scoring output dropping. But I think what we saw last season, plus the addition of JVR, should only serve to bolster the team’s production, as should the fact that they have two top notch defensemen who can each lead a PP, allowing the team to have a better second unit, which, in turn, should help improve their overall PP conversion percentage.

Their 249 total goals scored last season (averaging to 3.03 goals per game) also is somewhat deceiving, as they finished much stronger than they started, tallying 61 goals in their final 19 regular season games, for an average of 3.31 goals per game. Translated over an entire season that would be equal to 272 goals, which in turn would’ve been good enough for third in the league for 2017-18.

They also play in the East, home to six of the eight worst team in goals against last season. Granted, so do some of the teams which finished ahead of them in scoring as well, but as noted above I’m banking on a Stanley Cup hangover for the Caps, plus the Pens are aging and were luckier than normal in dodging injuries last season. The B’s are too dependent on one line, and Toronto’s stars don’t get the ice time needed to produce in droves. Thus, put the Flyers down for third in goals behind the Jets and Tampa, and move their skaters up your draft boards accordingly.

12) At least two non-rookies who’ve never scored 55 points in a season will score 80+ in 2018-19

Lost amid there being 21 players who posted 80+ points in 2017-18 (marking the first time since the 2009-10 season that even ten players reached that threshold) was that only one non-rookie (Mikko Rantanen) did so without having scored at least 55 points in a prior season. So what’s the big deal, this kind of scoring leap probably happens all the time right? Nope. Prior to last season the most recent instance of any player scoring 80+ points without having posted 55+ in a prior season was Taylor Hall in 2013-14, and that was after he posted 50 in 45 games in the 2012-13 campaign. You get the point – it’s a very rare occurrence.

Despite this, I think not only will it happen again in 2017-18, but two or more players will do so. And while my forecast doesn’t require me to say who exactly will fulfill the criteria, I’d go ahead and tell you the three I think have the best chance. Nico Hischier, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Sam Reinhart.

Hischier was a first overall pick, and there is precedent for big breakouts for them in their second season (see, e.g., Steven Stamkos); plus he figures to be playing alongside Taylor Hall yet again, which certainly won’t hurt his cause. For Dubois, he was getting not only top line duty in the final quarter of the season, but seeing oodles of power-play time and helping to ignite Artemi Panarin while at the same time ending the campaign with 17 points of his own in his final 16 games. As for Reinhart, it’s his “magical fourth season” and he had nearly a point per game over the second half of the season as it appeared all his dots had finally connected.

13) At least 13 defensemen will score 15+ goals

Despite the surge in high point producing rearguards last season (as was predicted in one of my correct forecasts from 2016-17), only a total of nine defensemen potted 15 or more goals. And as it turns out that was just about the average of eight over the previous four seasons (based on yearly totals of 6, 10, 10, and 6).

So why do I see a big jump in the total during this coming season? For one, all nine rearguards who accomplished the feat last season were at or below the peak age for defensemen, so they don’t figure to do worse. Beyond that, four others (Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Tyson Barrie, and Torey Krug) were on pace for 15+ except for missing too many games. Right there that’s already 13 in total, and that’s not even factoring in new members of the 15+ club.

But perhaps the key factor prompting this prediction is more d-men than ever are firing lots of pucks on net. Last season 44 rearguards played 60+ games while averaging at least two SOG per game, which was up from 33 in 2016-17, 31 in 2015-16, and 29 in both 2014-15 and 2013-14. That’s a big jump, and I don’t see it as a trend that will reverse itself this season, which should lead to more 15+ goal scorers. While we’re on the subject of SOG……

14) At least nine players will score 30+ goals without exceeding 200 SOG

As poolies, we associate high volume goal scorers with high volume shooters, and vice versa. Rightfully so, since of the 18 forwards who registered 250+ SOG last season 11 had 31+ goals and none had fewer than 22. But on the other side of the coin, of the 32 players who scored 30+ goals last season, six had fewer than 200 SOG, marking the second straight season that six players met both criteria, up from four in each of the 2015-16 and 2014-15 seasons and zero in 2013-14. I’m sensing a trend – one that will only continue to grow.

Simply put, there’s a new breed of player emerging in today’s NHL – what I’ll call the selectively shooting sniper. And as often happens in the NHL, trends get noticed are adopted, especially if they lead to success, and lo and behold all six who potted 30+ goals despite less than 200 SOG last season were on teams that made the playoffs.

As for the fantasy impact, be careful when drafting for SOG and/or goals. The days of one being high meaning the other is likewise automatically high – although still true in the majority of cases – is no longer a given.

And last but not least, those of you who’ve read my forecasts over the years know that I swing for the fences each year with my last pick, so without further ado…….

15) Jeff Petry will lead the Montreal Canadiens in scoring for 2018-19

Despite the tire fire that was the 2017-18 Montreal Canadiens season, Petry, whose previous career best had been 28 points, shined. He seized upon an opportunity when Shea Weber got hurt and not only ended up with 42 total points but posted 28 points of those 42 in his final 41 games, for a 56-point full season pace. Newsflash – that would’ve led the team in scoring last year. And with Shea Weber out until at least mid-December and possibly longer, Petry will get a chance to pick up where he left off.

But what this really boils down to is Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi and Tomas Tatar all not taking a step forward. The relevant details on Drouin is in my cage match on him from earlier this offseason and I covered of Gallagher in my special bubble keeper week edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters from July. But here are the high (low?) points.

Of Drouin’s last 99 points, 48 have come on the power play. To be so reliant upon man advantage scoring is not a recipe for a high output, especially on the 2018-19 Habs. There’s also the fact that despite being more of a focal point offensively last season, Drouin’s SOG rate actually dropped from 2016-17 to 2017-18. He’s also not only never had an IPP (i.e., the percentage of goals scored while he’s on the ice on which he received a point) above 70%, which is the number usually achieved by star players, he’s actually never even hit the 65% mark, which means he doesn’t have a nose for scoring. And that was despite having an offensive zone starting percentage of 62%+ not only last season but each of the prior four!

For Gallagher, although he had only had 23 assists (versus 31 goals), his secondary assists rate was his highest since 2013-14, suggesting despite so few assists he overachieved in that area. And given his already high goal rate, chances are if his secondary assists rate drops he wouldn’t expect to get more goals or primary assists, which in turn means fewer points.

Gallagher also established a career high in IPP, a function of having to do more on his own due to playing with subpar linemates. But guess what – with Montreal not having upgraded this offseason the same thing is likely to occur, except this time teams are clued in and will focus more on Gallagher’s line. Lastly, his personal shooting percentage last season (11.2%) was higher than it’s been in any full season and marked only the second time it was above 9.4%. And his average shot distance was 25.8, up from 25.2 last year and 23.4 in 2015-16; so he was shooting from farther away yet more shots were resulting in goals. Together this data suggests he lucked into probably a handful of goals he shouldn’t have tallied.

As for Domi and Tatar, my concern is shellshock coming to the hotbed of Montreal, where the media and fans are ravenous and unforgiving. And with Domi being a former top prospect plus son of an NHLer most Habs fans remember, I think he’ll fare especially poorly under the spotlight, leaving Petry as the team’s de facto scoring leader.

* * *

There they are –15 Fearless Forecasts for the 2018-19 season. A few were last minute additions because originally I had ones that included Alex Galchenyuk and Seth Jones, but injuries made it so I had to replace those. Am I making excuses? No, but I wanted that to be known. The magic question is how many of these will actually come true? Only time will tell; but as usual I’m giving you a say, as here again the link to vote on which forecast (or forecasts) will end up being correct predictions, while also adding your own predictions if you’re so inclined. Last year your votes correlated pretty well with the ones that did, in fact, come true, so let’s see if you can match or even exceed your past success this time around.

One last note that I like to always emphasize. While of course I want this to be a fun read, I’m hopeful you didn’t just digest it solely with an eye toward fun or speculation. Whether or not the forecasts come true there are fantasy lessons embedded in each one, so make sure you go back through the list and seize upon those takeaways to help get a leg up in your league.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/15-fearless-forecasts-for-the-2018-19-season/

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thrashermaxey · 7 years ago

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Cage Match: Rickard Rakell vs. Mark Stone

One of the countless great things about the Fantasy Guide (available for order here) is I can use the point projections to help pick what – on paper – should be even battles, like this week, with Rickard Rakell squaring off against Mark Stone. The Fantasy Guide has them at virtually identical scoring rates for 2018-19, but let’s see if one player has an edge (both for this season and down the road) according to the deep dive of Cage Match.

Career Path and Contract Status

Rakell, 25, was selected 30th overall in 2011 and returned to juniors for two more years of development that saw him post barely point per game numbers, making him not a standout in the high scoring OHL. But he nevertheless took the AHL by storm in 2013-14 by posting 37 points in 46 games and earning a call-up to the NHL, where he had a mere four points in 18 contests. Even still, it was clear to the Ducks that Rakell was above returning to the AHL, so starting in 2014-15 he was with the Ducks to stay, and he tallied a so-so 31 points in 71 games. But since then, all Rakell has done is increase his 82-game scoring pace with each passing season, going from 36 as a rookie to 49 in 2015-16, to 59 in 2016-17, to 73 last season. Notice though I referred to scoring pace – that’s because Rakell missed 10+ games in each of his first three seasons, and last season still managed to only play in 77 contests.

Stone, 26, was drafted 178th overall a year earlier than Rakell then proceeded to tally 229 points over his next two seasons in the WHL. He nevertheless spent the 2012-13 lockout in the AHL and returned there for 2013-14 until his 41 points in 37 games led to him coming to Ottawa to stay. His first full NHL season was a doozy, as he posted 64 points in 80 games. Unfortunately, he’s played in fewer games with each passing season, dropping first to 75, then 71, and finally to only 58 this past season. Yet for 2017-18 he had better than point per game output (62 points), which is all the more remarkable since it came on the woeful Sens. It also reversed a slight scoring dip that occurred in 2016-17, which had seen Stone post a mere 54 points in those 71 games.

Rakell is set to embark on year three of a six-year deal that carries a mere $3.789M cap hit per season, while earlier this month Stone avoided salary arbitration by signing a one-year deal that will ding the cap at $7.35M, or nearly double Rakell’s number. Both will be UFAs when their current deals end.

Ice Time

Season

Total Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

PP Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

SH Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

2017-18

19:25 (R.R.) – 2nd

20:40 (M.S.) – 1st

2:44 (R.R.) – 2nd

3:06 (M.S.) – 2nd (tied)

0:07 (R.R.) – 14th

1:12 (M.S.) – 6th

2016-17

17:23 (R.R.) – 5th

18:34 (M.S.) – 2nd

2:16 (R.R.) – 4th

3:05 (M.S.) – 2nd

0:01 (R.R.) – 14th (tied)

0:03 (M.S.) – 12th

2015-16

16:04 (R.R.) – 5th

20:07 (M.S.) – 1st

2:14 (R.R.) – 4th

3:00 (M.S.) – 2nd

0:06 (R.R.) – 10th

1:13 (M.S.) – 7th

2015-16

12:34 (R.R.) – 11th

17:01 (M.S.) – 3rd

1:18 (R.R.) – 7th

2:24 (M.S.) – 5th

0:01 (R.R.) – 13th

1:24 (M.S.) – 5th

Rakell’s points progression pretty much mirrors his ice time spot on – that is, just as his scoring pace has gone up each season, so too have both his overall and PP ice times per game. Seeing that lends a lot of credibility to his scoring upticks. Moreover, he’s far from maxed out in terms of overall and power-play time per game, ranking 36th and 79th, respectively, among all forwards. Thus, there’s realistic room for him to see further ice time gain, and, in turn, further scoring gains as well, especially with the team continuing to not saddle him with non-productive, tiring shorthanded duty.

With Stone, there’s no such clear pattern. His ice times were virtually identical in 2015-16 as they were last season, yet his scoring pace was 66 points versus 87 last season. That doesn’t add up; however, we have an additional key data point in 2014-15 numbers, since Stone produced nearly the same output in 2014-15 as he did in 2015-16 despite far inferior deployment. So although we’ll look at SOG, PPPts and luck numbers carefully, just based on ice time alone it would appear that 2015-16 might be an outlier where he experienced unsustainable bad luck.

Secondary Categories

Season

PIMs

(per game)

Hits

(per game)

Blocked Shots (per game)

Shots

(per game)

PP Points

(per game)

2017-18

0.18 (R.R.)

0.17 (M.S.)

1.49 (R.R.)

0.91 (M.S.)

0.39 (R.R.)

0.67 (M.S.)

2.98 (R.R.)

2.27 (M.S.)

0.23 (R.R.)

0.20 (M.S.)

2016-17

0.17 (R.R.)

0.36 (M.S.)

1.14 (R.R.)

0.58 (M.S.)

0.45 (R.R.)

0.75 (M.S.)

2.49 (R.R.)

1.88 (M.S.)

0.17 (R.R.)

0.20 (M.S.)

2015-16

0.26 (R.R.)

0.50 (M.S.)

1.68 (R.R.)

0.73 (M.S.)

0.41 (R.R.)

0.72 (M.S.)

2.34 (R.R.)

2.01 (M.S.)

0.14 (R.R.)

0.20 (M.S.)

2014-15

0.14 (R.R.)

0.17 (M.S.)

1.11 (R.R.)

0.61 (M.S.)

0.31 (R.R.)

0.66 (M.S.)

1.48 (R.R.)

1.96 (M.S.)

0.12 (R.R.)

0.16 (M.S.)

This data should put even wider smiles on the faces of those who own Rakell. First and foremost both his SOG and PPPts per game have increased each season, lending further credibility to his higher points-per-game output with each passing campaign. Moreover, Rakell is an underrated multi-cat asset, or at least he is when it comes to hits. In fact, on a per game basis, Rakell offers a sneakily elite combination of hits and goals, as only Alex Ovechkin and, barely, Anders Lee had both a higher goals per game and hits per game rate than Rakell over the last two combined seasons.

Moreover, since 2000-01 only nine other players – by age 24 – had, like Rakell, amassed at least two seasons of 33+ goals, 14%+ shooting percentage, and 2.4 SOG per game. Among those who’ve played in the NHL longer than Rakell, the list consists of Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexander Semin, Jason Spezza, and Thomas Vanek. Say what you want about Semin and Vanek, but both had at least one 84+ point season while the others on the list were bona fide stars who each had multiple 90+ point seasons. Long story short, while past data is not predictive of future results, this is some pretty fine company to be in.

The only wrinkle is that each of them had a point per game season by age 24, so the fact that Rakell has not is of slight concern in terms of how valid it is to liken him to these player on the basis of these stats. Yet overall that’s a small asterisk on what is very, very encouraging data for Rakell, which serves not just to validate his output in recent seasons, but also to show there’s still room for realistic improvement in his SOG as well as his PPPts, suggesting, in turn, that his scoring gains could well continue.

As for Stone, it’s a positive that his SOG was highest in this past season; however, the jump as compared to the previous campaigns was not so substantial as to explain his increase in production, especially when coupled with a PPPt rate that stayed the same as it had been in his previous two campaigns and the aforementioned similarity in ice times to 2015-16. Right away that raises stronger concerns about unsustainable good luck in 2017-18, rather than the previously suspected unsustainable bad luck during 2015-16. As for multi-cat, Stone has been all over the map in terms of PIM, consistently good but not superb in hits, and superb – for a forward – in blocks.

Luck-Based Metrics

Season

Personal Shooting %

Team Shooting % (5×5)

Individual Points % (IPP)

Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)

Average Shot Distance

Secondary Assists %

2017-18

14.8% (R.R.)

15.2% (M.S.)

10.50 (R.R.)

10.98% (M.S.)

70.4% (R.R.)

75.6% (M.S.)

54.0% (R.R.)

52.8% (M.S.)

27.5 (R.R.)

29.7 (M.S.)

48% (R.R.)

38% (M.S.)

2016-17

18.6% (R.R.)

16.9% (M.S.)

10.82 (R.R.)

8.77% (M.S.)

72.9% (R.R.)

60.9% (M.S.)

55.2% (R.R.)

53.3% (M.S.)

25.4 (R.R.)

27.3 (M.S.)

27% (R.R.)

47% (M.S.)

2015-16

11.8% (R.R.)

15.2% (M.S.)

8.65 (R.R.)

8.02% (M.S.)

62.3% (R.R.)

67.0% (M.S.)

58.6% (R.R.)

51.9% (M.S.)

25.6 (R.R.)

25.1 (M.S.)

43% (R.R.)

44% (M.S.)

2014-15

8.6% (R.R.)

16.6% (M.S.)

7.66 (R.R.)

10.47% (M.S.)

68.9% (R.R.)

68.1% (M.S.)

50.5% (R.R.)

52.3% (M.S.)

27.6 (R.R.)

23.5 (M.S.)

50% (R.R.)

42% (M.S.)

We can see that both players have two seasons with high 5×5 team shooting percentage; but to me they tell vastly different stories. For Stone, his numbers were highest this past season and not especially low in 2015-16. Between that and his SOG and PPPts, it looks as though he was indeed unsustainably lucky last season. Then again, his IPP also skyrocketed, which could be a further sign of unsustainable good luck but also suggests he had to carry his linemates, a theory which is supported by how much better he performed than any other forward on his team last season.

On the plus side, as Stone shot more in 2017-18 and from a farther average distance than any other previous season, he still was able to keep his personal shooting percentage very high. In fact, by having averaged 1.8+ SOG per year and with a 15%+ personal shooting percentage four times by age 25, he puts himself in some pretty fine company too, as the only players older than him to do so even three times since 2000-01 have been Steven Stamkos, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jonathan Toews, Marian Gaborik, Martin Havlat, Dany Heatley, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Rick Nash, Jason Spezza, and Thomas Vanek. In other words, a lot of the same names we saw above with Rakell’s comparison.

Yet here too there’s concern in that most of these players far eclipsed Stone’s SOG rate, with only Toews. Lucic, and Havlat failing to average at least 3 SOG per game in at least one season by age 25, and, perhaps by no small coincidence, being the least productive of the players on the list. Thus, Stone could well end up following their trajectory, which is one without multiple point per game seasons, especially since other than last season he had sub-70% IPPs, which is usually the threshold for top players.

As for Rakell, what a difference a year can make. This time last year Rakell was coming off yet another scoring gain but that time in the face of a very elevated 5×5 team shooting percentage and his first time above 70% IPP. Fast forward to now, however, and he essentially replicated those numbers, which cuts against either season being the by-product of unsustainable bad luck. Instead, it shows a player who’s coming into his own and both creates substantial offense (5×5 team shooting %) plus is able to find a way to factor into scoring (70%+ IPP). It’s also encouraging that even as Rakell had his most SOG and his average shot distance crept upward, he still kept his personal shooting percentage high, suggesting that he's a legitimate sniper who should be perennially counted on for 30+ goals, if not even more should he get more ice time.

Who Wins?

Rakell is the winner, by more than I’d have thought. His career progression has been legitimate and, more importantly, leaves room for further gains. At this point his points floor is likely 75 and he could top out at 85 points, or even more if surrounded by high quality linemates and given the ice time that truly elite forwards receive.

Stone is no slouch; however, he’s also no point-per-game player – not now nor down the road. Rather, he’s a player who should be counted on for production somewhere in the 60s most seasons, with a better chance to rise above 70 than to fall below 60. This, of course, assumes his skills don’t erode due to season after season of injuries. Also, if he ends up on another team next season and is able to play alongside a truly elite center, his points could rise to 75; however I believe last season will be his first and only taste of point per game output, brought on more so by unsustainable good luck combined with him having to carry the Sens.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/cage-match-rickard-rakell-vs-mark-stone/

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thrashermaxey · 7 years ago

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Fantasy Cage Match: Barzal vs. Draisaitl

This is one of my favorite times of year for Cage Matches, since I have enough season-long data to see if breakout players are for real or simply enjoying a long but ultimately unsustainable spike in production. Case in point is Mathew Barzal, who, although always highly touted, has already far and away exceeded rookie expectations. Taking on Barzal is Leon Draisaitl, who might be in the midst of one of the quietest 75-80+ point seasons in recent memory. Which of these two should you want to own in fantasy? Cage Match is here to lead you down the correct path.

Career Path and Contract Status

Barzal, 20, was selected 15th overall in 2015 after posting 54 and 57 points in two WHL seasons. The Isles opted to let him stay in juniors for two more seasons, which saw Barzal post a collective 167 points in a mere 99 games, signifying he was NHL ready. Sure enough he broke camp with the big club this season tabbed as its second line center; after a somewhat slow October (7 points in 12 games), he’s posted 12+ points per month of the season, plus tallied a remarkable three separate five point games.

Draisaitl, 22, was picked third overall in 2014 after posting 105 points in 64 OHL games. He was ticketed to Edmonton right away but struggled (nine points in 37), leading him back to juniors, where he once again shined (53 points in 32 games). The 2015-16 campaign saw Draisaitl stick in Edmonton, where he emerged with 31 points in 28 games and posted 51 for the season. He built on that with 77 points last season, and in 2017-18 might hit the 80-point mark for the first of what could be many occasions.

Barzal is arguably one of hockey’s best bargains, playing on an ELC that runs through 2020-21 and dings the cap at $0.863M per season. Draisaitl’s cap hit is a lofty $8.5M per season through 2024-25.

Ice Time (data in this and the other tables is current through March 12th)

Season

Total Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

PP Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

PP Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

2017-18

17:35 (M.B.) – 3rd

19:17 (L.D.) – 2nd

3:07 (M.B.) – 1st (tied)

2:43 (L.D.) – 2nd

0:02 (M.B.) – 12th (tied)

0:52 (L.D.) – 7th

2016-17

18:53 (L.D.) – 2nd

2:54 (L.D.) – 2nd

0:25 (L.D.) – 9th

2015-16

18:03 (L.D.) – 4th

2:33 (L.D.) – 6th

0:03 (L.D.) – 12th

The questions surrounding Draisaitl entering 2017-18 were how dependent his scoring was on playing with Connor McDavid, and could he produce gaudy numbers if/when they played fewer shifts together. After all, last season Edmonton scored 2.52 goals per 60 minutes when Draisaitl played apart from McDavid, versus 3.57 when McDavid was apart from Draisaitl and 4.00 when the two skated together.

Digging deeper, last season McDavid and Draisaitl shared the ice for roughly 80% of Draisaitl’s even strength (ES) shifts, and Draisaitl tallied 31 of his 50 ES points (i.e., 62%) with McDavid also on the ice. Fast forward to 2017-18, and although they’ve played a good bit less together at even strength (just under 65% of their ES shifts), the percentage of Draisaitl’s scoring at ES with McDavid has stayed nearly the same – 30 of 50 points (i.e., 60%). Thus, Draisaitl is arguably relying on McDavid more to score this season than last.

But let’s remember, for 2017-18 Draisaitl’s other line mates have been arguably less skilled than last season, with the departure of Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins missing time due to injury. Plus, McDavid and Draisaitl are signed for years to come, so if they “need” to play together for one or both to succeed, what’s wrong with that? Look at Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, or Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Concern about Draisaitl’s dependence on McDavid is seemingly overblown or, even if true to some extent, shouldn’t scare off poolies.

As for Barzal, his Ice Time is low for his scoring pace; but with scoring being up for 2017-18, it now takes less TOI to score as many points. To illustrate, Barzal’s points per 60 minutes is 3.41, ranking him just outside the top ten for 2017-18. But it also puts him within the top 25 for all skaters who played in 60+ games in any season since 2010-11! In fact, 14 of the top 30 instances of 60+ game forwards in P/60 since 2010-11 are from 2017-18. Thus, what was once thought impossible (or highly unlikely) in terms of TOI and production is now seemingly possible, provided scoring stays high in future seasons. Beyond that, Barzal is in an Ice Time sweet spot, with almost no SH duty and a high percentage of PP Time, plus a low enough overall Ice Time to ward off concern about a rookie wall.

Secondary Categories

Season

PIMs

(per game)

Hits

(per game)

Blocked Shots (per game)

Shots

(per game)

PP Points

(per game)

2017-18

0.34 (M.B.)

0.40 (L.D.)

0.26 (M.B.)

0.54 (L.D.)

0.39 (M.B.)

0.34 (L.D.)

2.17 (M.B.)

2.50 (L.D.)

0.29 (M.B.)

0.12 (L.D.)

2016-17

0.24 (L.D.)

0.50 (L.D.)

0.44 (L.D.)

2.09 (L.D.)

0.31 (L.D.)

2015-16

0.27 (L.D.)

0.52 (L.D.)

0.25 (L.D.)

1.84 (L.D.)

0.12 (L.D.)

As Draisaitl’s SOG rate has increased, so has his scoring. But his PPP rate is tracking his first full season after being nearly triple that rate last year. Cause for concern? Most likely no, as it’s perhaps due to the Oilers having no real PP QB plus it can’t realistically get any worse, except in the highly unlikely event Draisaitl’s role on the PP is de-emphasized. Think of it this way – if Draisaitl’s PP scoring this season was merely the average of 2015-16 and 2016-17, he’d be headed toward 85+ points. Of course, there could be reason to worry if Draisaitl’s luck metrics – notably his IPP and/or team shooting % – paint the picture of unsustainable good luck this season and/or last. We’ll check on those below.

Barzal has already reached 50 assists; and if he stays at point per game scoring he’ll be just the fourth forward to meet both criteria as a first-year player since 1995-96, with the others being Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin. If we go back to 1990-91, we can add two others, the venerable Teemu Selanne, plus one who doesn’t stack up – Joe Juneau. But I’m not seeing parallels with Juneau and Barzal, since Juneau was a winger playing with a 142-point Adam Oates. In other words, Juneau was along for the ride, while at even strength Barzal plays with no one of the caliber of Oates and thus is making more things happen on his own. In doing so, I’d liken Barzal’s accomplishments more to those of Crosby, whose 102 rookie points were nearly 50 more than any other forward he skated with at ES.

But before we anoint Barzal the second coming of any of these players, let alone Crosby, we need to realize he’s not cut from the same cloth. In particular, his 2.17 SOG per game is more than a full SOG less than Crosby averaged and nearly that much less than Malkin’s rookie average. If we look instead at forwards who had 55+ assists (Barzal is on pace for 60) and averaged 2-2.5 SOG per game in a season while age 25 or younger since 1995-96, the good news is all ten who met the criteria not only scored 70+ points in that particular season but also at least one other campaign as well. However, although the list includes some fantasy luminaries Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza, Ryan Getzlaf, Doug Weight and Nicklas Backstrom, it also features Ales Hemsky, Josef Stumpel, Scott Gomez, and Paul Stastny. Thus, Barzal’s accomplishments may indeed portend greatness, yet his failure to shoot the puck a lot allows for him also to be rightfully compared to some players who were unable to sustain successful fantasy careers.

Luck-Based Metrics

Season

Personal Shooting %

Team Shooting % (5×5)

Individual Points % (IPP)

Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)

Average Shot Distance

Secondary Assists %

2017-18

13.0% (M.B.)

13.8% (L.D.)

9.44% (M.B.)

9.17% (L.D.)

74.2% (M.B.)

75.3% (L.D.)

52.2% (M.B.)

55.4% (L.D.)

24.8 (M.B.)

24.1 (L.D.)

49% (M.B.)

25% (L.D.)

2016-17

16.9% (L.D.)

9.74% (L.D.)

70.6% (L.D.)

53.2% (L.D.)

20.4 (L.D.)

35% (L.D.)

2015-16

14.3% (L.D.)

8.03% (L.D.)

73.9% (L.D.)

53.8% (L.D.)

23.5 (L.D.)

50% (L.D.)

The news for Draisaitl is encouraging pretty much across the board. For one, he’s managing to produce just as well this season as last despite sporting lower team shooting and secondary assists percentages. Why might his secondary assists percentage be so low? Probably due in part to the chemistry between him and McDavid, where one of them likely scores from the other’s pass, and vice versa. And this too would be an area that should rise if (when?) the Oilers start achieving more success on the PP.

Looking at the other areas, things are also rock solid with respect to IPP, with Draisaitl being above the “magic” 70% threshold in each of his full seasons, which is no small task when playing as much as he does with a point magnet like McDavid, who sports a career IPP average above 80%, meaning when a goal is scored with McDavid on the ice in most cases there are at most two other points available for the other four skaters out there with him. So the fact that Draisaitil has managed to stay above 70% for his IPP not only further underscores his chemistry with McDavid, but also his own nose for scoring.

Barzal’s team shooting percentage is elevated; however, I’d argue that for it to be high despite him being on a line with less talented players is more of a testament to his skill than being the beneficiary of unsustainable good luck. Predictably his IPP is also high; however, if it was to go down that would mean he’d have better players surrounding him who’d also help create more goals, and the net result could be no lost points. In other words, the fact that both his IPP and his team shooting percentages are high is a better sign than if one was high but the other low. His secondary assists percentage is higher than is likely sustainable; but that too isn’t as much of a concern given his circumstances, since if he had more talented line mates some of those could instead be goals or primary assists.

Who Wins?

Nothing against Barzal, but Draisaitl wins the match. If Edmonton was having even a halfway decent season both in general (they’re on pace for 228 goals for 2017-18, which would be 15 fewer than last season) and on the PP (they’re converting on 15.2% of the PP chances this season, down sharply from 22.9 last year), we’d likely be looking at Draisaitl making a push for 85+ points. Barzal is having a rookie season for the ages; however, as we saw above his lack of SOG puts him as much at risk of turning into a Stumpel, Gomez, or Hemsky, as it does a Getzlaf, Backstrom, or Thornton.

If you can parlay Edmonton’s disappointing season and Draistail’s “quiet” 75-80 point pace into getting him for a lower cost than might be expected, you should likely pull the trigger, since the price might not be this low again for the next decade. Barzal is likely a hold, although by the same token if you’re in a non-cap league you couldn’t be faulted if you explored selling him for proven point per game or better value or to upgrade at another position, since given what you likely paid to get Barzal that would be a very good return on investment.

Recent Cage Matches:

Vegas, Part 1

Vegas, Part 2

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/fantasy-cage-match-barzal-vs-draisaitl/

0 notes

thrashermaxey · 7 years ago

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Cage Match: David Pastrnak vs. Patrik Laine

Could David Pastrnak be a better fantasy option than Patrik Laine?

Whatever the opposite of choosing between the lesser of two evils is, that’s what’s in store with a battle between David Pastrnak and Patrik Laine. Although both seem poised to be keeper cornerstones and one-year league studs for the next decade plus, here it’s all about picking a winner, so that’s the tough task in store when these two step into the cage!

Career Path and Contract Status

Pastrnak, now 21, was drafted 25th overall in 2014 and earmarked for the AHL, where, despite being just 18, he excelled (28 points in 25 games). With Boston for the rest of 2014-15 he posted 27 points in 46 games, igniting hopes of him being another draft steal with early success, ala Patrice Bergeron. But he stalled as a sophomore, with only 26 points in 51 contests in an injury-shortened campaign. Since then, however, he’s been spectacular, with 70 points in 75 contests in 2016-17 and producing at a similar rate this season.

Laine, 19, was selected second overall in 2016 after a standout season for Liiga, and immediately thrust into a prominent role with the Jets. To say he succeeded would be a vast understatement, as he posted 36 goals (64 points) in only 73 games, for the highest goals per game rate of any 70+ game, 60+ point rookie since Alexander Ovechkin more than a decade earlier. This season, however, his scoring and goals rates are down somewhat.

Pasta’s cap hit is $6.66M, and he’s signed through 2024. Laine’s ELC runs through 2018-19 but he’ll likely be extended beforehand and have a cap hit at least as high as Pastrnak’s for 2019-20 and beyond.

Ice Time

All stats in this table and the others are through February 18th, and SH Ice Time is omitted because neither averaged more than 0:02 of SH duty per game in any season.

Season

Total Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

PP Ice Time per game

(rank among team’s forwards)

2017-18

17:50 (D.P) – 3rd

16:42 (P.L.) – 5th

3:06 (D.P) – 1st

3:16 (P.L.) – 3rd

2016-17

17:58 (D.P) – 4th

17:54 (P.L.) – 3rd

2:37 (D.P) – 3rd (tied)

2:43 (P.L.) – 3rd

2015-16

13:56 (D.P) – 8th

0:28 (D.P) – 9th

2014-15

13:58 (D.P) – 10th

1:41 (D.P) – 9th

Seeing Pastrnak’s meager average ice times in his first two seasons, it’s a wonder he managed 53 points in 97 games. In doing so, however, he posted the 61st best points per 60 minutes rate among forwards over that time frame, besting the likes of Brayden Schenn, Aleksander Barkov, James van Riemsdyk, and even teammate Brad Marchand. Since then, Pastrnak has made the most of his added ice time, as over the past two seasons his 3.09 points per 60 minutes is seventh-best among NHL forwards who’ve played 120+ games.

The issue is Pasta might already be at his realistic ice time ceiling, since although Patrice Bergeron and Marchand are averaging, respectively 19:26 and 19:31 per game, nearly 2:00 of that is SH duty, meaning Pasta already skates more non-SH minutes than both. If Pasta isn’t likely to receive more minutes in coming seasons, and he’s already scoring at one of the best P/60 rates in the NHL, his scoring cap might be close to what he’s producing now, or perhaps even less if his luck metrics are unreasonable.

As for player comparables, only four other forwards have ever played under 2800 minutes in their first three seasons while taking the ice for 170+ games and posting 120+ points. One (Jarome Iginla) became a star, a second (Sergei Berezin) fizzled, and a third had solid seasons then faded (Sergei Samsonov). Berezin was 25 as a rookie, so it’s easier to distinguish Pasta from him. Yet Pasta isn’t easy to liken to Iginla, who was a power forward. And Samsonov never scored even 55 points in any of those first three seasons. Pasta’s closest comparison might be the fourth to meet the criteria – Evgeni Kuznetsov, who, although a center rather than a winger, like Pasta had one big season among his first three.

After such a strong rookie campaign, it’s odd to see Laine’s minutes down, although there’s consolation in that his PP time is up, as is his PP usage percentage (51.0% to 58.7%). It turns out every Jets top-six forward other than Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler has seen his ice time decrease from 2016-17 to 2017-18. Call it the Kyle Connor effect, as Connor’s ice time has risen from 12:13 per game last season to nearly 16:44 now. As a result, Laine, plus Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers and Mathieu Perreault, have all seen their Y2Y ice times drop by a combined amount that roughly matches Connor’s gains.

If Laine continues his goals pace, he’ll join five NHLers who’ve scored 70+ in their first two seasons as teens. Three became superstars (Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Dale Hawerchuk). But they were centers; the two wingers (Jimmy Carson, Brian Bellows) went on to have success, but were by no means major stars. What does this mean for Laine? Maybe nothing, or maybe his early sniping success could suggest peaking early. If nothing else, it’s food for thought ala the Pasta’s comparables.

Secondary Categories

Season

PIMs

(per game)

Hits

(per game)

Blocked Shots (per game)

Shots

(per game)

PP Points

(per game)

2017-18

0.35 (D.P)

0.34 (P.L.)

0.76 (D.P)

0.84 (P.L.)

0.37 (D.P)

0.49 (P.L.)

2.66 (D.P)

2.86 (P.L.)

0.30 (D.P)

0.39 (P.L.)

2016-17

0.46 (D.P)

0.35 (P.L.)

0.94 (D.P)

1.09 (P.L.)

0.42 (D.P)

0.45 (P.L.)

3.48 (D.P)

2.79 (P.L.)

0.32 (D.P)

0.19 (P.L.)

2015-16

0.39 (D.P)

1.02 (D.P)

0.29 (D.P)

2.11 (D.P)

0.02 (D.P)

2014-15

0.17 (D.P)

0.43 (D.P)

0.24 (D.P)

2.04 (D.P)

0.06 (D.P)

Despite shedding ice time, Laine is shooting more, which is seemingly a great sign. Even still, we’ll check whether his ASD has increased and/or his personal shooting percentage has dropped, since in both cases that could signify more might not mean better. Laine also is responding to his added PP time by more than doubling his PP scoring rate.

But should we count on Laine’s PP scoring rate continuing, dropping back to what we saw last season, or landing somewhere in between? Digging deeper, it took only until game 50 for the Jets to equal the 48 PPGs they scored in all of 2016-17. Are they really that good with the man advantage? Probably not; however, chances are they’ll stay closer to what we’re seeing this season than last, given their young core plus the seemingly ageless Blake Wheeler. And that bodes well for Laine’s PP scoring.

Laine is also quite solid in hits and blocks, although Pasta is no slouch either. As for PPPts, Pastrnak has stayed consistent from last season to this year, and the B’ are in the same PPG percentage rate vicinity as last season, so that screams sustainable.

Although Pastrnak’s 2.66 SOG rate this season seems solid, it’s down nearly 25% from 2016-17. Moreover, of the 18 instances of wingers who scored 75+ points in one of the past four campaigns, only one (Artemi Panarin in 2015-16) had a SOG rate less Pasta’s current 2.66 per game. And the news isn’t great for Laine either, since if we up that threshold to his 2.86 rate the number who posted 75+ points despite a lower SOG rate only jumps to only five of the 18. If instead we go by the 3.48 per game rate Pasta had in 2016-17, the number climbs to 11 of the 18. So make no mistake – in today’s NHL both will need to shoot more to produce what would be considered top fantasy numbers for wingers.

Luck-Based Metrics

Season

Personal Shooting %

Team Shooting % (5×5)

Individual Points % (IPP)

Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)

Average Shot Distance

Secondary Assists %

2017-18

14.1% (D.P)

16.0% (P.L.)

10.42% (D.P)

10.11% (P.L.)

68.0% (D.P)

63.9% (P.L.)

62.7% (D.P)

58.9% (P.L.)

29.8 (D.P)

37.3 (P.L.)

46% (D.P)

42% (P.L.)

2016-17

13.2% (D.P)

17.6% (P.L.)

8.33% (D.P)

12.61% (P.L.)

70.0% (D.P)

68.8% (P.L.)

56.2% (D.P)

54.8% (P.L.)

33.6 (D.P)

39.1(P.L.)

39% (D.P)

53% (P.L.)

2015-16

13.9% (D.P)

8.74% (D.P)

78.8% (D.P)

49.8% (D.P)

31.5 (D.P)

45% (D.P)

2014-15

11.7% (D.P)

8.82% (D.P)

77.1% (D.P)

69.2% (D.P)

35.2 (D.P)

47% (D.P)

Pastrnak’s 2017-18 metrics are concerning, especially when his scoring rate is only comparable to last season. In particular, after three seasons of 8.33-8.82% for his team shooting percentage, that number has spiked to 10.42% for this season, and is accompanied by an OZ% of 62%, marking his highest non-rookie figure.

Also, Pasta’s IPP is down for the second straight season, which is understandable due to him playing with two extremely talented linemates. Thus, on one hand that’s a concern because a low IPP means fewer points; however, the fact that it had been higher in the past means it could go up again, in which case suddenly he’s in point per game territory. That also raises an important question – is Pasta being carried by his linemates? One way to try and determine that is by looking at his WOWY (i.e., “with or without you) numbers.

Last season when he and Bergeron skated together, Boston scored 3.25 goals per 60 minutes; when he skated without Bergeron it was 2.55, versus 3.31 when Bergeron took the ice without Pasta. It was a similar story with Marchand, as when Pasta and Marchand skated ice together that rate was 3.77, while Pasta without Marchand translated to a rate of 2.80 and Marchand without Pasta led to a rate of 4.01.

This WOWY data may have been a function of it being his first season playing with talented linemates. But will he keep his coveted role with Bergeron and Marchand? Suddenly that’s less clear, as he was removed from that line at times in the past week, and his ice time cratered. What this seemingly shows is Pasta needs Bergeron and Marchand more than they need him, and his production could be at risk if (when?) coach Cassidy tinkers with lines on a more regular basis. The good news is when separated from Bergeron and Marchand, Pasta was kept on PP1…..at least for the time being.

For Laine, the number that jumps off the page is his team shooting percentage from last season, which, at 12.62%, was far too high to be remotely sustainable, especially when coupled with his high ASD and secondary assists percentage. His numbers for 2017-18 are more reasonable overall, and we need to keep in mind this is coming with very low ice time, which should improve in future seasons. After all, Laine’s points per 60 over the past two seasons was 2.88, also putting him in the top 20 overall among NHL forwards during that period.

Moreover, the fact that Laine is a sniper with a high personal shooting percentage bodes well for his long-term success. He’s poised to finish each of his first two seasons with 30+ goals and a 15%+ personal shooting percentage, which would make him only the second player – after Eric Lindros – since 1990-91 to meet both criteria. And if we lower the shooting percentage threshold to 14%, that would lump in two other players with whom it would be very favorable to be compared, namely Sidney Crosby and Artemi Panarin.

Who Wins?

This match is another illustration of fantasy value being tied as much, if not in some cases more so, to factors beyond a player’s control as to a his pure talent. If Claude Julien is still coaching the B’s, chances are he doesn’t stick with a “super line” and maybe Pasta doesn’t break out like he has. If Winnipeg wasn’t playing as well as they are now, they might be more inclined to have Laine continue to log more minutes, which would help pad his stats due to him having arguably more raw talent than Pasta.

Going into 2017-18, Laine was being picked 15th overall in Yahoo drafts, versus 42nd for Pasta. I think Laine still has more perceived value (and thus higher cost), because of his status as a #2 pick, the still recent memory of what he did as a rookie, and his higher goal totals. To me, even though Pasta was removed from the top line briefly last week, he still wins in all leagues except those which place a premium on goals. Still, if Laine finishes this season well below his rookie totals, his cost might plummet for fear he was overhyped or a flash in the pan. If so, he’d be worth the gamble in hopes he’ll get more ice time soon and the comparisons based on his shooting percentage and goals ending up being more predictive than those based on his age and goals.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/cage-match-david-pastrnak-vs-patrik-laine/

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