#the bates

[thefundiedata]

Baby Bates 2 is on the way!

On Sunday 8th June 2025, Lawson and Tiffany Bates announced via Instagram and YouTube that they are expecting their second child. The couple are already parents to William (10 months).

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement Probably twelve weeks. Tiffany said in the YouTube video that they wanted to wait for the end of the first trimester before announcing. The couple suffered a loss in 2023 which has affected how they have announced since. They announced extremely late with William (20 weeks, 4 days) and their average to announce is now 16 weeks, 2 days.

Helpfully, Tiffany has also given much more concrete data for Josie's due date. In the YouTube video, Tiffany suggested they were due very close together. I have therefore moved Josie's due date back to December, her new predicted birth date is 9th December 2025 unless she gives more specific data to work with.

Early, Late or On Time? Early. Tiffany and Lawson had a long firstborn spacing (using the estimated spacing of the pregnancy they lost) of 738 days. This, multiplied by the second child multiplier, meant they were estimated to have a 1284 day spacing to Baby 2. This seemed unlikely, given that would mean a spacing of around three and a half years. Still, it is a second child spacing that is quicker than the firstborn spacing that came before it, which isn't that common. Other spreadsheet couples who achieved this feat are:

-Jed and Katey Duggar -Nurie and Nathan Rodrigues -John and Campbell Morton -Rachel and Alan Busenitz -Bethany and Dan Beasley -Andrew and Kori Wissmann -Esther and John Shrader

In fact, this spacing is 0.69x the length of their first, the third biggest difference of all couples.

Due Date If Tiffany is at least twelve weeks, at most 21st December. I'll be using this for now. Last time round, Tiffany had her baby eleven days early. With this in mind, Baby 2 is expected on 10th December 2025.

Impact on the Data Tiffany will be 26 years old when she has this baby. Therefore, this pregnancy has affected the 25-30 maternal multiplier. It's had a small impact, reducing the bracket's predictions ever so slightly. It has also reduced the second child multiplier, impacting everyone who is yet to have their second child.

Lawson and Tiffany are now predicted to have eight children, up from their previous prediction of four.

What's Next? If they follow their data from William's pregnancy. Lawson and Tiffany will announce the gender of this baby in October and will announce their name after the baby is born but before they announce the birth.

Lawson and Tiffany's new predicted spacing, taking this pregnancy and multiplying it by our new, swanky third child multiplier (my aim to avoid the weird estimations that had been going on with third children) is 641 days. They are therefore expected to announce their next pregnancy in April 2027 and have their next baby in September 2027.

Congratulations to the family!

[crazypercheron]

oh yeah, you can definitely see the individual trees more

[forsapphics]

She is the poem

by June Bates

[anna-sawais]

#same girl FRIED GREEN TOMATOES 1991 — dir. Jon Avnet

[nemesis-writer]

POV- Writing for ____x reader fic

[inferno-ontherocks]

Eddie Diaz: The Sip Saga

[euphoric-mars]

looking horror right in the eyes

[coolpeaches]

Baptiste Cothenet photographed by Davis Bates

[peterokii]

women..............

[thefundiedata]

Baby Balka 4 is on the way!

On Sunday 27th April 2025, Josie Balka announced via Instagram that she is expecting her fourth child. She and husband Kelton are already parents to Willow (5), Hazel (3) and Miles (1).

Early, Late, or On Time? This pregnancy is early according to the data. Josie so far has been the poster girl for how next-gen fundie pregnancy spacing has gone. She had an extremely quick marriage-firstborn rate, a still pretty speedy first-secondborn rate (using the estimated data of when her due date would have been had she not miscarried) and then a much, much slower second-third rate.

Marriage-Willow: 287 days Willow-estimated 2*: 593 days Hazel-Miles: 982 days

Now, what the spreadsheet anticipated happening, as often happens in these circumstances, was Josie settling into that pace and having another ~900 day spacing. It was estimating a 965 day pacing with an announcement in April 2026. This pregnancy has come much sooner than that. This announcement was 1.59 Standard Deviations early, way outside the expected range of the data.

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement We're not totally sure. Josie's previous data is as follows:

Announcement for Willow: Day 118 Announcement for Hazel: Day 105 Announcement for Miles: Day 76

The average of all of these is an announcement on Day 100, which would mean a due date at the end of October. If she's announced closer to when she did for Miles, it would mean a due date in mid-November. Seeing as her Instagram comments have implied she's only recently discovered she's pregnant, I think it's fair to assume that this is an earlier announcement.

Due Date: Likely end of October to the end of November but Josie hasn't given an exact date. Assuming she's announced close to when she did for Miles, the spreadsheet is estimating a due date of 17th November. Josie does deliver early so the new baby has an estimated birth date of 5th November. (The kid could be named after Guy Fawkes if he wasn't a Catholic!) I also think this is more likely than an October due date because Josie was skiing in February, which would be an interesting choice if she was in the first trimester, but could be wrong, fundies have previously ignored suggestions around activities in pregnancy.

Impact on the Data: Josie will be 26 when she has this baby. As such, the pregnancy has a small effect on the 25-30 maternal multiplier. It reduces that bracket by around a week, which is a relatively small adjustment to the multiplier.

It does speed up Josie's predicted pace, though her predicted family size stays the same at 9 children.

Baby Five? The spreadsheet anticipates a spacing of 888 days for Baby 5 with an announcement in October 2027 for a birth in April 2028.

[junkfoodcinemas]

Anthony Perkins as Norman Bates Psycho (1960) dir. Alfred Hitchcock Maika Monroe as Lee Harker Longlegs (2024) dir. Osgood Perkins

[normasshearer]

FAVORITE CLASSIC FILM PERFORMANCES

Anthony Perkins as Norman Bates in PSYCHO (1960) dir. Alfred Hitchcock

I think that we're all in our private traps, clamped in them, and none of us can ever get out. We scratch and we claw, but only at the air, only at each other. And for all of it, we never budge an inch.

[isabelleadjani]

ANTHONY PERKINS as Norman Bates PSYCHO dir. Alfred Hitchcock, 1960

[possessedpasm]

Hey, everyone, it's Normal Bates

[pinayelf]

Love you like the rain, it falls much faster, living in a piece of ever after