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stoweboyd · 7 years ago

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Add To The Reading List: The New Geography of Jobs by Enrico Moretti

If Paul Krugman rereads a book, you have to imagine it’s worth reading at least once:

Paul Krugman | Know-Nothings for the 21st Century

I’ve been rereading an important 2012 book, Enrico Moretti’s “The New Geography of Jobs,” about the growing divergence of regional fortunes within the United States. Until around 1980, America seemed on the path toward broadly spread prosperity, with poor regions like the Deep South rapidly catching up with the rest. Since then, however, the gaps have widened again, with incomes in some parts of the nation surging while other parts fall behind.

Moretti argues, rightly in the view of many economists, that this new divergence reflects the growing importance of clusters of highly skilled workers — many of them immigrants — often centered on great universities, that create virtuous circles of growth and innovation. And as it happens, the 2016 election largely pitted these rising regions against those left behind, which is why counties carried by Hillary Clinton, who won only a narrow majority of the popular vote, account for a remarkable 64 percent of U.S. G.D.P., almost twice as much as Trump counties.

Clearly, we need policies to spread the benefits of growth and innovation more widely. But one way to think of Trumpism is as an attempt to narrow regional disparities, not by bringing the lagging regions up, but by cutting the growing regions down. For that’s what attacks on education and immigration, key drivers of the new economy’s success stories, would do.

Here’s a review from the publisher about The New Geography of Jobs:

“A persuasive look at why some U.S. cities have prospered in recent decades while others have declined."— Bloomberg Businessweek We’re used to thinking of the United States in opposing terms: red versus blue, haves versus have-nots. But today there are three Americas. At one extreme are the brain hubs—cities like San Francisco, Boston, and Durham—with workers who are among the most productive, creative, and best paid on the planet. At the other extreme are former manufacturing capitals, which are rapidly losing jobs and residents. The rest of America could go either way. For the past thirty years, the three Americas have been growing apart at an accelerating rate. This divergence is one the most important developments in the history of the United States and is reshaping the very fabric of our society, affecting all aspects of our lives, from health and education to family stability and political engagement. But the winners and losers aren’t necessarily who you’d expect.

Enrico Moretti’s groundbreaking research shows that you don’t have to be a scientist or an engineer to thrive in one of the brain hubs. Carpenters, taxi-drivers, teachers, nurses, and other local service jobs are created at a ratio of five-to-one in the brain hubs, raising salaries and standard of living for all. Dealing with this split—supporting growth in the hubs while arresting the decline elsewhere—is the challenge of the century, and The New Geography of Jobs lights the way.

"Moretti has written a clear and insightful account of the economic forces that are shaping America and its regions, and he rightly celebrates human capital and innovation as the fundamental sources of economic development."—Jonathan Rothwell, The Brookings Institution

#workfutures #enrico moretti #the new geography of jobs #economics #reading list

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jasonseney · 8 years ago

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#education #sweden #school #workfutures

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e-work1-blog · 8 years ago

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e-work.com in partnership with Work EvOHlution is proud to present a Webinar on Improving Outcomes for Distributed Workers, with Special Guest Dr. Laura Hambley. Please join us December 13th to learn how e-work.com is Transforming Your Workplace! #distributedwork #telework #mobilework #agilework #futureofwork #virtualwork #futurework #workplace #work # eLearning #mobile #workfromhome #travelforwork #outofoffice #facilities #efficiency #productivity #business #learning #changingworkplace #technology #improvebusiness #betterbusiness #workfuture #modernworkplace #todaysworkplace Follow this link to learn more http://conta.cc/2AuDnhO

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guildwuff2 · 6 years ago

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I made my patreon goal!

Thanks so much to the folks who’ve subscribed to my work! So what happens now?

I’m gonna start on doing comics, of course! I have some ideas for different arcs for each of my characters. I’ll be starting a poll on my patreon for which arcs the folks there are interested in more, but you’re free to poke me here as well, if you got any questions about it or would like to voice interest about any toon in particular👍✨

And! if you’re interested in seeing my work—future comics included—three days early, would like to participate in polls, or would be interested in a monthly artwork, consider supporting me! Every little bit counts <3

#sayeth the wuff #patreon tag #IM EXCITED TO DO COMICS MY DUDES

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jobisitejobs · 8 years ago

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Senior Sales Executive with Best Version Media

The position listed below is not with South Carolina Interviews but with Best Version MediaSouth Carolina Interviews is a private organization that works in collaboration with government agencies to promote emerging careers. Our goal is to connect you with supportive resources to supplement your skills in order to attain your dream career. California Interviews has also partnered with industry leading consultants & training providers that can assist during your career transition. We look forward to helping you reach your career goals! If you any questions please visit our contact page to connect with us directlyJob DescriptionJoin one of the Fastest Growing, Private, Media Companies in the United StatesBest Version Media (BVM) is looking nationwide for entrepreneurs and professionals who desire an exciting opportunity to be in business for themselves, but not by themselves.About Us:Best Version Media (BVM) brings neighbors together by providing a superior quality and a professional publication that reflects the integrity, pride and prestige of the local communities we serve. We are one of the fastest growing media companies in North America.Best Version Media (BVM) reaches more readers than any other company in the industry by providing the highest quality magazine in the micro-targeted markets we proudly serve.Responsibilities: Business-to-Business (B2B) advertising sales and building your own book of business Networking within professional organizations Prospecting, appointment setting, and face-to-face presentations Actively collaborate with management to create dynamic plans and goalsBenefits Include: The highest commission and earnings in our industry. The position has long-termed, sustained revenue. This provides stability, income, and prevents fluctuation yet, offers high growth A world-class training program specific to our industry A high level of autonomy with unlimited support and opportunities; allowing you to become the best versions of yourselves An award-winning culture which includes flexibility in a family and hobby-friendly environment with no evenings or weekends required The prestige of being a Publisher in your local market and have the influence that accompanies it A dynamic culture based on professional will, a compassionate heart, and fun-loving spirit all built on a foundation of humility Opportunities to advanceCompany Mission:Our mission is to provide residents, niche-markets, and community leaders with an exciting, warm and effective means to communicate with one another. We create an exceptional environment and opportunity where an individual Publisher can excel to his or her fullest potential. BVM offers professional development initiatives that not only further the Publisher's financial opportunity, but also have a strong focus on personal development programs that build character and virtue.Company DescriptionAwards in 2016 & 2017Entrepreneur Top Company Cultures for 20162016 Best and Brightest Company to Work for in the NationFuture 50 2016Fastest Growing FirmsTop 10 Businesses of the YearInnovation & Excellence Award 20162017 Best Places to WorkGreat Place to Work CertifiedInternational Fastest Growing Company of the Year - BronzeInternational Company of the Year - Silver2017 Top WorkplaceTop Place to WorkFuture 50 2017 Associated topics: director of sales, management, manager of sales, regional sales manager, sales director, sales leader, sales management, sales manager, shift lead, team leader SeniorSalesExecutivewithBestVersionMedia from Job Portal http://www.jobisite.com/extrJobView.htm?id=74200

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usajobsite · 8 years ago

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Senior Sales Executive with Best Version Media

#Job Portal

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jobisite11 · 8 years ago

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Senior Sales Executive with Best Version Media

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apprenticeshipsinlondon · 8 years ago

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Apprentice Recruiter

London, UK TalentXperts Our client is a fast growing recruitment company based in North West London that specialise in placing Temp and Permanent Workers. Company has launched an upskills program for young graduates who want to thrive in recruitment career, You will be working along with a team of hungry, driven and self-motivated recruitment consultants. You will experience a fast-paced, exciting and challenging working environment.Job details:As an apprentice recruiter,You will assist the senior team with achieving their targets whilst being trained up to be a recruitment consultant yourself.You'll start off with the basics of learning the fundamentals of resourcing and candidate attraction, job board management and thorough interview trainingYou will be fully exposed to the world of recruitment and given the opportunity to accelerate your career substantially. DutiesHelp in searching job boards and databases for candidatesTelephone screening candidatesLiaising with a senior recruitment consultant to clarify job specs from clientsLearn recruiting suitable candidates according to their skills and experience to meet client needsSelling job roles into candidatesLearn Client Resource Management (CRM) system and record maintenance.Ideal candidate must:Excellent communicatorA-Level or Strong GCSE leaverGood team playerEntrepreneurialIT literateTarget drivenFast learnerEnthusiasticLives near HarrowThis Apprenticeship is suitable for someone who is looking to start a career in recruitment but has little or no experience, recent school/college/sixth form leavers are best suited to this job role.Benefits:Paid workFuture prospect of full time workQCF Sales qualificationGaining work based experienceCareer development and progressionIndustry leading training and support throughout the ApprenticeshipLunch and transportation allowance is also on offer. from Youth In Jobs https://youthinjobs.co.uk/job/35189/apprentice-recruiter/

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stoweboyd · 8 years ago

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The Global Cities Are Controlling The World’s Economy

Emily Badger details the divergence of ‘global cities’ from the hinterlands beyond their environs, and points out the connections that link such power centers, and simultaneously exclude smaller cities and non-cities from the benefits of the global economic network.

What Happens When the Richest U.S. Cities Turn to the World? | Emily Badger

People in Rust Belt towns where Google has no office still use the search giant. Facebook and Twitter still require physical assets in server farms. Uber, a quintessential Bay Area company that is both global and digital, operates in about 250 American cities.

But these kinds of ties aren’t truly spreading the Bay Area’s prosperity. Server farms don’t create mass middle-class employment. Using Google isn’t the same as having a hand in engineering it.

Yes, Uber’s innovation eventually reaches smaller cities in Texas and Ohio.“But the economic benefits of it are at Uber headquarters,” said Michael Storper, an economic geographer at U.C.L.A. “The people who got rich off of it are not going to be in the small area. They’re going to be where it’s invented.”

To put it more harshly, when global cities need other communities today, Ms. [Saskia] Sassen said, it’s often to extract value out of them. New York bankers need Middle America’s mortgages to construct securities. San Francisco start-ups need idle cars everywhere to amass billion-dollar valuations. Online retail giants need cheap land for their warehouses.

The rest of the country may receive the innovations that flow out of global cities, and the benefits to consumers are real. “But by the time that’s done, the cities have already invented something new and made themselves richer again,” Mr. Storper said. “Before anywhere else can catch up, San Francisco has already leapt ahead again with new stuff they’ve invented.”

The advantages bestowed by the global economy keep compounding from there. Research by Filipe Campante at Harvard and David Yanagizawa-Drott at the University of Zurich finds that when two cities are linked by direct flights across the globe, business links between them increase as well, such that places with more connections grow more economically. Those economic benefits, though, don’t appear to touch places more than 100 miles beyond the airport.

Harald Bathelt at the University of Toronto has found that firms in leading tech clusters in Canada tend to invest in leading tech clusters in China, and vice versa. They’re pouring resources into and linking up to places that are already similarly successful.

“The Torontos, Ottawas and Waterloos in countries like Canada and the U.S., they will link with Shenzhen in China, they will link with Munich and Stockholm in Europe,” Mr. Bathelt said. “And other places will be kind of left out.”

Greg Spencer, another researcher at the University of Toronto, has analyzed the global footprints of the world’s 500 largest firms in advanced industries like machinery, digital services and life sciences — mapping their headquarters, regional offices, manufacturing plants, warehouses, retail stores.

In the international network that emerges, global cities stand out. Other places connect to the global economy by going through them.

“I keep coming back to the idea that a lot of this is about power,” Mr. Spencer said. He means relative power — which places are gaining or losing it as the geography of the economy shifts, too. “Not only are they losing their power,” he said of the places left out, “but they’re losing their connection to the power centers as well.”

#cities #workfutures #economics #emily badger #uber #greg spencer #harald barthelt #filipe campante #david yanagizawa-drott #michael storper #saskia sassen #google

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stoweboyd · 8 years ago

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Patreon Backs Out of Fee Structure Changes, But I’m Leaving Anyway

Patreon has backed out of proposed changes in the company’s model for fees, as user backlash grew. The apologetic tone of the post by CEO Jack Conte -- We messed up. We’re sorry, and we’re not rolling out the fees change. -- was a shift from the lecturing tone of earlier posts.

The controversy around the fee change spurred me to look at alternatives for Work Futures, which is how I came across Steady, but I have moved ahead with adopting Steady for other reasons. In fact, Steady’s takes 10% plus processing fees, more than Patreon’s fees. However, Steady allows me to integrate a paywall right here on my Tumblr blog, where I have written over 11 thousand posts, and where I start with more than 160,000 followers. Not to mention that I can use the Tumblr editor and other features that I have relied on for years, instead of the annoyingly primitive system at Patreon.

I plan an in-depth description of how it all works. Apparently, I am the first Steady user to try a Tumblr integration. But it seems to be working pretty well.

More to follow.

#patreon #steady #tumblr #jack conte #workfutures

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stoweboyd · 8 years ago

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On the Firstline with Lee Bryant: The Quantified Organization

I have interviewed a few practitioners and visionaries this fall in a Microsoft-sponsored inquiry into the Firstline workforce, the workers who are

the first point of contact with customer, the first touch point with the supply chain, those who have first hand experience with products they build or the services they deliver.

These are the retail clerks, construction workers, and the teams on the factory floor. Employees who may spend their shifts standing, talking with customers in a shoe store, assembling an electric car, or turning wrenches on a building site.

Lee Bryant is an old friend, a colleague I first met in 2004, I think, and who leads Post*Shift, a consulting firm helping clients throught the complexities and channels of transformation into 21st-century business practice.

Other posts in the Firstline series include On the Firstline with Euan Semple, Why Frontline Employees Should Make All The Important Decisions, and Poking in the Shadows: What about ‘Hard Work’?.

Lee Bryant

…

THE PROVOCATION

Stowe Boyd: We live and work in an accelerating, interconnected, and hyper-competitive world, where it’s increasingly hard to know what’s over the horizon, and where innovation, agility, and vision are more essential than ever. For business leadership this means it’s essential to develop and communicate a clear understanding of the company’s trajectory in the world as the basis for concerted action, moving from the boardroom and C suite across the company, and out to the firstline workforce: those who are the first point of contact with customer, the first touch point with the supply chain, those who have first hand experience with products they build or the services they deliver. How can leadership make that vision an organizing force, bringing the firstline into greater alignment with the company as a whole, and to help the firstline workforce to adapt to a new, rapidly changing business economy? Companies must become more agile than ever before to respond to constantly changing business realities, and that requires increased innovation not only at headquarters, but out at the firstline, where the company meets its customers, competitors, and greatest challenges. So the firstline workforce must be able and empowered to experiment, to innovate, try out new ideas, and to learn from those attempts to better fit the changing marketplace. What are the barriers that might block this from happening? The key to success, even in this sped-up economy, is still the productivity of the workforce. Getting more with less and achieving better outcomes means a workforce more connected and more efficient than ever before, maximizing everyone’s contributions. This requires a digital transformation of the business, one that reaches to all operations of the business. How will the transformed firstline workforce — in manufacturing, retail, hospitality, construction, healthcare and other industries — operate in the near future, and what role will technology play in that transformation? The shift to greater agility and efficiency requires a rethinking of the role of the firstline workforce, even as we rethink the business as a whole, to better engage and empower them. Their insights about what’s going on at the core of the business are often the best, and can be critical to company-wide innovation and improvement. What changes must be made to get the firstline workforce more engaged, to gain higher customer satisfaction, business performance, and workforce retention?

THE INTERVIEW

Lee Bryant: There are lots of angles and aspects to this, but for me, some of the questions that need addressing include the following questions:

1. How to mitigate the inefficiency of hierarchical communication and work coordination for firstline workers who need to work at customer speed, not corporate speed. The model they need is closer to a mesh network that connects them as peers than a centralised network that sees them as servants of the centre.

SB: I recently read some research that supports this. Microsoft researchers Mary Gray and Siddharth Suri investigated the communications patterns of Mechanical Turk workers (as reported by Emily Anthes in The shape of work to come). They discovered that the concept many have of these gig workers laboring as soloists has to be reconsidered. They found that there was an extensive social network of MT workers communicating and collaborating. And those who had connections to at least one other worker on the platform were more likely to gain 'master' status, discover new work more quickly, and had higher approval ratings. As Gray said, 'they need each other'.

I wager that the same is true for firstline workers. While their work may be formally structured as rote processes without great attention to the communications between firstline workers--and often as a work list of independent tasks--your mesh network grows organically in the face of actual work.

LB: Yes, I agree. This also mirrors emergent communication and collaboration among Uber drivers, who share tips on how to operate and also sometimes coordinate availability to maximise surge pricing. When the user case is useful enough, social networks seem to emerge almost naturally. So, whilst companies may think work happens within their formal hierarchical chains of command, the reality is that this is mitigated by a lot of peer to peer collaboration that is happening laterally.

2. How to switch from a process-centric to a service-centric approach to the organisational capabilities that support firstline workers. Rather than impose more processes on them driven by corporate or compliance needs, how can we create the service platform they need to help evolve firstline functions in conjunction with customers.

SB: How do you envision that evolution taking place?

LB: I think it starts with a change in mentality. For example, rather than HR or IT being central functions that just exist as centres of power in an organisation, they should be required to define their SLAs and APIs and be managed and measured as service units to support others doing work. But it goes much deeper. In the old slow-to-change world, we could believe it is possible to design a process as a solution to a challenge and then optimise the process to maximise efficiency. This then becomes seen as ‘the work’ and we train people to operate the process rather than teaching them how to think about and address the challenge the process was designed to solve.

But what we really need is evolutionary work environments consisting of lots of connected services and micro-services that each specialise in one part of the puzzle, but operate within an open and connected environment. That way, as each service evolves to become better at what it does, we also benefit from emergence as a second order effect. I think of top-down design of fixed processes as the ‘intelligent design’ counter-part to the evolutionary approach.

The job to be done for each service or service team is to solve a problem, not operate a process (we will have RPA for that!), which means they always need to be thinking of better ways to do it.

3. How to use firstline workers as the eyes and ears of innovation and continuous improvement - similar to what Dave Snowden calls the ‘human sensor network’ - so that they create the user stories for the organisation. This is a necessary precondition for the methodology we call the Quantified Organisation.

SB: Business is looking to gain new levels of productivity from that innovation and improvement at the firstline, and it has to come as an outgrowth of the firstline workers in contact with customers, and wretling with established ways of delivering value. Can you expand a bit on the Quantified Organization?

LB: The role of the organisation (i.e. its structures, practices and process) is to enable employees to create value for customers, but the way we run these organisations is often the reverse. How do we know the organisation is fit for purpose and how do we know what needs fixing? Related to the point about service-orientation above, I believe we can define the services or capabilities the organisation provides to employees and customers and give them organisational health metrics to track how well they are performing. We can track these heath metrics using either data sources (e.g. SNA data derived from social systems) or by asking the human sensor network, and this gives us a much better starting point for transformation or change activities than starting from the top. Instead of pointing our big data laser at individual performance, let’s turn it around and point it at the systems and structures that shape (or hinder) performance to ensure we are always evolving our organisations to become fit for purpose.

4. How to create meaningful management roles at the interface with the customer that stimulate mastery and continuous improvement, rather than being seen as lowly shop floor management - e.g. head chef vs fast food team manager. How do we incentivise people with skills to stay at this level and not seek generic management roles in the centre?

SB: Right. It must be possible for someone who has gained vital skills at the edge to stay at the edge, and not wind up as a 'manager' sitting at a desk or in conference rooms all day. Basically, there has to be a mastery track, like a software engineer that becomes a 'fellow' rather than being promoted away from coding.

LB: Yes. Hopefully, we will lose the majority of management roles as the coordination of work becomes more connected and management becomes more algorithmic. We do not need people to carry information from place to place, judge results and then call meetings to tell people to improve. We do, however, continue to need leaders, supporters, coaches and great communicators who can inspire collective action.

The Firstline series is sponsored by Microsoft, but the opinions expressed are those of the individuals involved, and not Microsoft.

#uber #mechanical turk #lee bryant #firstline #dave snowden #the quantified organisation #mary gray #microsoft #siddarth suri #workfutures

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stoweboyd · 7 years ago

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Some Predictions, 2018

I had the thought this morning that I might be better off thinking about the future adversarially, as if I were wrestling with a shadowed but immensely strong and fanged opponent, instead of looking out on a rolling plain filled with slowly ambling herbivorous events and interactions. Alfred North Whitehead said

It is the business of the future to be dangerous.

And maybe I should approach it from a different angle: maybe I should visualize my work as a futurist more like storming a castle than opening the mail.

Some of my predictions have been made in Twitter, already, while others are seeing the light of day for the first time, here. Others have been modified from 2017 predictions or other sources.

I placed these in four broad categories: Technology, Politics, Economics, and Climate. I’ll leave Arts and Culture for a separate post.

Politics

Democrats will regain control of the US House of Representatives, taking a/ all the seats in counties that voted for Clinton now held by GOP reps (23), b/ holding all the Dem seats in districts that voted for Trump (12), and /c targeting districts with retiring moderate GOP reps, districts with close races last election, and some wildcards adding up to 24 wins. It’s going to happen though, I bet. (see great graphics on this at WaPo). Bannon is a big factor, accelerating the splintering of the GOP.

Democrats will take the Senate, even though the Dems have 26 Senate seats up for grabs, while GOP has only 8 seats up for reelection. Bannon is a big factor, accelerating the splintering of the GOP.

Despite campaign rhetoric, Trump has maintained or expanded the wars that he inherited from Obama. Trump has achieved none of his major foreign policy goals. I predict 2018 will just get worse. (via twitter)

European populism will continue to expand, as detailed by Yascha Mounk and Martin Eiermann.

Mueller will find clear signs of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, and will indict campaign officials, including Donald Trump Jr., but not Donald Trump. Pence will resign since he was the leader of the transition team when it all came down, and Trump will appoint Nikki Haley as Vice-President, the first woman and Asian-American to hold that office.

Iran will be struck with on-going protests as a result of a cascades of social and economic problems: drought, water, unemployment, high prices, welfare cuts, corruption, and government policies. The government will start out trying to moderate the protests, but will ultimately ramp up the use of force. The country will move to crisis which will not be resolved in 2018.

Putin will win reelection.

Concerns about Brexit, populism, and anti-EU sentiment in Europe leads to more unstable governments there, and internal policy changes on Chinese debt lead to slowing development there. Both of these trends have negative impacts on the world economy.

Drought and heat wave in Asia, Africa, and india lead to enormous disruption and policy challenges. Nationalist and populist governments of Europe and Asia close their borders to new migrants and climate refugees.

GOP offers of 2018 bipartisanship fall apart after infrastructure discussions reach an impasse: GOP wants to use private-public partnerships, basically granting large sums to major developers, while Democrats favor a broadly-based jobs program coordinated with State governments. As a result, nothing gets done prior to 2018 elections.

#MeToo continues as a potent cultural force with significant impact in the political realm, with an on-going stream of male politicians brought low.

The Syrian civil war will come to a negotiated end, with an agreement for war amnesties for al-Assad�� government and the rebels, excluding ISIS forces. A complex multi-stage approach to the creation of a new government is proposed, but not solidified in 2018.

The standoff in Catalonia will continue into 2018, without a resolution. Rajoy was been massively weakened by the growing perception of intransigence, and his lack of a real resolution to the Catalonia crisis. Meanwhile, the separatists in Catalonia can't rally around a coherent plan for independence in a European Union that seems adamantly opposed to fracturing of member countries, despite the growing movements in Catalonia and other regions.

The UK and EU come to agreement on a timetable and logistics for Brexit, although myriad details remain to be tacked down. However, the possibility of an amicable and close relationship -- not as close as Norway -- but an agreement that allows for Britain to participate on trade in the EU as a slight disadvantage but under EU law while limiting free immigration.

North Korea fires a low-yield (5 kilotons) nuclear missile to the middle of the Pacific and detonates it as 'proof that North Korea is a nuclear power that can't be trifled with', says Kim Jung-un. This is less than half the yeild of the Hiroshim bomb, and causes no direct injuries. Trump rattles his saber, but ultimately the world accepts the notion of a nuclear-armed North Korea joining Pakistan, India, Israel, Russia, China, France, UK, and US.

Israel's aggressive stance toward annexation of West Bank territory leads to international condemnation, but Trump's administration does little aside from calls for moderation. Many critics begin to call the Israeli model Apartheid, and European support for Israel, in particular, plummets. The US blocks UN resolutions calling for sanctions against Israel.

Technology

Amazon will pick Denver or Toronto as the site for its second HQ.

Amazon will acquire Slack for $15B. Work chat will continue as the dominant theme in work technology in 2018, although they is considerable pushback on its negatives, too.

Apple will acquire Tesla for $75B. Tim Cook will retire, and Elon Musk will become CEO of the merged Apple/Tesla, to be called Apple.

Microsoft will buy Salesforce for $100B. Benioff will retire to philanthropy.

Driverless fleets by various companies will be launched in 2018 – GM in NYC, Lyft taxis in Boston, Ford, Waymo in Phoenix.

A growing number of major corporations will deploy AI intended to augment or replace frontline and middle managers, leading to tens of thousands of managers being reassigned or let go. This will be the result of AI-to-AI communications, where narrowly- and deeply-focused AIs will collaborate with other complementary AIs at a pace that humans can’t keep up with. Employee engagement rises.

Amazon Alexa technology dominates the home, with Google a strong second, and Apple as a distant also-ran.

Netflix acquires Spotify for $10B.

The ability to run Android apps on Chromebook devices will lead to growing migration from Windows, Mac, and iOS devices.

Google will acquire Twitter for $20B. Jack Dorsey will step down, and Google will redesign Twitter in a crowdsourced process, looking ahead to integration with Google Photos, Google Maps, Youtube, AdSense, DoubleClick, Google Home, and Google Assistant.

Facebook, Twitter and other social media systems will mobilize a combination of human and AI-based filtering to counter the deluge of fake news directed by Russia and other malefactors during elections in 2018, having increased but not perfect success.

Google will acquire Medium for $2.5B.See 10, above.

Amazon will release Alexa Glasses, which allow wearer to communicate with Alexa services by voice, and get audio response by bone conduction and video response projected on the glasses. They will sell millions.

Economics

Major stock indexes will continue their growth of recent years, led by technology stocks, like Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and others. However, the rate of growth will slow in the fall, as concerns about Brexit, populism, and anti-EU sentiment in Europe leads to more unstable governments there, and internal policy changes on Chinese debt lead to slowing development there. Both of these trends have negative impacts on the world economy, as does the drought and heat wave in Asia, Africa, and India.

Growing instability in Europe, due to the rise of nationalism and populism, will lead to a decline in European growth, and the return of problems with overly indebted countries and central banks.

China’s growth rate will slow because of internal and external concerns about deep debt overhang.

Sustainable energy will continue to drop in price, forcing energy systems to shift to battery systems to capture excess. As a result, coal and oil will continue to trend downward, and the energy sector will shift investments to sustainable sources.

Automation will increase worldwide, but the productivity paradox -- where those investments do not lead immediately to increase in productivity -- will continue, although many occupations (like financial services, IT, and retail, not just manufacturing) will start to see a decline in jobs.

Creative and freelance workers will begin to unionize as a means to counter the precarious nature of work in the gig economy, mobilized in part by the #MeToo, #Resistance, and #fightfor15 movements, and the leftward lean of the Democrats in the 2018 elections.

The concepts of ‘flexicurity’ and ‘fluidarity’ begin to form a central aspect of a new US labor movement.

Climate

2018 will be the hottest year on record.

The US will be hit with a record number of hurricanes.

Asia will be hit with a record number of typhoons.

The atmospheric levels of CO2 will reach a new record in fall 2018.

Africa, Asia, and India are confronted by extreme heat and drought, leading to famine, disorder, and heightened tensions. Hundreds of millions attempt to migrate from stricken regions, leading to reprisals, border wars, and growing catastrophe.

Puerto Rico is hit by several hurricanes, and its power is again knocked out. An additional million citizens emigrate to mainland US.

New York City is hit by a hurricane and large portions of the city’s already straining subway system are flooded. The prognosis is grim: it will take years and tens of billions to recover.

#workfutures #economics #climate #politics #technology #predictions #2018

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stoweboyd · 8 years ago

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How I Keep Track

Since I am launching a series called Keeping Track -- exploring how busy, creative people stay on top of their goals, commitments, plans, and schedules -- it makes sense to start with my own fumbling attempts in that area.

First, let me start by offering a confession: while I use a number of tools and techniques I am an admitted imperfectionist, and as such I'm not necessarily an exemplar of getting things done, except as the poster child for scruffy messoholics who can manage to do a fairly good job of keeping track, despite everything.

I aspire to keeping track in the three obvious dimensions: the future, past, and present.

The Future: Calendar and Journal

I am fairly scrupulous with Google Calendar, penciling in possible travel and events in the far future -- I put a question mark on provisional, or penciled in, appointments. Things that are more concrete, like what I am planning for the next several weeks have no question marks.

And near-term events are also likely to be included in my work management tool of choice, these days, called Flow (getflow.com). Within Flow I maintain 'two sets of books': projects like this Work Futures website, or client projects like my work with Traction, which I lay out in a more or less conventional way, using Flow's project and task management capabilities to track deadlines and task requirements, and capture descriptions and interaction with other coworkers.

This is not an in-depth review of Flow -- although I plan one -- but in passing let me note that it has several features that make it highly attractive to me. Flow supports markdown formatting in task and project descriptions, which I have a strong preference for. And projects and tasks have individual links that can be used in imaginative ways, cross-linking things outside of the silos of projects.

I also have shifted my idea spinning, planning, and goal setting into Flow, and out of document managers. Sometimes these ideas start as comments or just a sentence in a project description or a task note, and sometimes I start with the definition of a project -- like this Keeping Track series -- and the ideas and plan are captured there from the start.

When working with others on these future-oriented activities I rely on Flow's task comment threads heavily (and lament that project descriptions lack comments). Note the same affordances are used in present-oriented activities, too.

The Present: Journaling

Flow's fluidity plays a large role in the second 'set of books'. I am strongly committed to journaling my work on a daily basis, and by extension, on a weekly and monthly basis as well. Within Flow I manage a project called '2017', and a series of tasks, one for each day. Months are represented by labels in the task list.

Every day (Mostly. Remember that I am an imperfectionist!) I open or create a task associated with today's date, like '2017-12-01'. I use a special rule for weekend, collapsing Saturday and Sunday together like '2017-12-02 - 03'. I might have created a day's (or weekend's) task earlier than the day itself, because I may have known in advance that I'd be doing something on that day. For example, on Friday I decided I'd write this Keeping Track post on the weekend, so I added that as a subtask to the '2017-12-02 - 03' task. (Yes, Flow supports subtasks, but only one level deep, alas.) Each morning, I consider the items already added to the day's task list, perhaps adding others, and move them into a priority order.

The two sets of books comes into play each morning. For example, I planned to do some work today on a Traction initiative, and so I added a subtask about that. If it's significant enough, Flow's cross-linking allows the daily item to reference the Traction project or a task in it, or alternatively, to link from the project to the various activities undertaken on a day to day basis and captured in the journal entries.

Here's a screenshot of the '2017' project on the left opened to '2017-12-02 -03' (under the '2017-12' section label), and the subtask 'Note kumu.io to Erick' selected and checked off. Note the line of text in the description says 'for the emerging tech map project', which includes a link to the emergent tech map project'.

This obsessive attention to the activities of each day, for me, takes the place of writing in an analog journal by hand. I often (but not religiously) end my day by reflecting on what transpired, capturing thoughts and observations in the daily task description. I also move or copy subtasks that had not been accomplished to the next day or later days, relying on Flow's drag and drop interface.

The Past: Recollection

I rely on journaling in several ways.

First, I use it to channel my daily activities, to prioritize, and memorialize task work, as discussed above.

Second, I rely on journaling for the benefits of clarifying and capturing my thinking about what I accomplished or didn't, rather than retrieving that information later.

However, I do go back to my notes captured in the tasks that represent actions taken, meetings held, and calls made. That's the third use case. In fact, I create journal entries for calls and meetings, like '2017-12-01 Betty Wong call' rather than in a Google or Dropbox Paper doc, as I did for years prior to adopting Flow. And during the call or meeting, I take notes in the task description, and often create subtasks for follow-on actions that arise during the call. In may cases I move those subtasks, like 'follow up with Betty Wong with proposal', into a project that is related, typically named by the corresponding company or project name, like "acme' or 'milan february conference'. And I frequently revisit the notes from the calls and meetings.

I use a number of other tools for recollection. I rely heavily on saved.io, a simple bookmarking tool, to manage an archive of links and associated notes. Saved.io is very lightweight, and has a beautifully simple UX: you simply add 'saved.io/' in front of the URL in your browser, and it captures the URL and allows you to edit the note field, including tags (tags appear to be slightly broken in the tool at present, although you can search for them). Even better, you can add a category before the 'saved.io/', like 'work.saved.io/' and the link will be added to the 'work' category in the tool. Saved.io lacks social capabilities, so it is really just for personal use.

I also use the Chrome plug-in Toby to deal with tab overload in the browser. I often get to a point where I have dozens of tabs open in several browsers windows, and rather than keep them open indefinitely, or bookmark the various pages one by one in saved.io, I use Toby to save sets, like all the tabs in a single window, so that I can reopen them later. (I am looking at GhostBrowserwhich takes these ideas even further.)

I seldom delete email immediately after reading it and dealing with it. I generally archive it, and cull old emails in large batches at the end of the year from a year (I recently deleted 2012, for example), or delete all email from with a particular sender, like The New Yorker, or companies that have gone out of business.

I also rely on a Chrome plug-in called Better History to search through my browser history for things I didn't bookmark but should have.

My stoweboyd.com blog has transitioned over the years to acting as a writer's daybook, where I capture images, quotes, links, and report others works. I create short form posts there on a variety of subjects, ranging from politics and economics to culture and poetry. Much of my long form writing started as a short-term piece on stoweboyd.com.

The Big Picture

I am a media hound and inveterate tool head, so it may be that what seems sensible to me may be a bit of overkill for others. Nonetheless, I subscribe to the principles that the unexamined life isn't worth living, and much of what I do is the outgrowth of failure: failing to find bits and pieces that I scribbled somewhere, dates buried in emails, and great ideas forgotten in a file somewhere. I confess that my way of keeping track is as much a shell protecting me from myself and my bad memory as a means to more cleanly organize to productively face the world. My approach is as much an umbrella as a bicycle.

#keeping track #workfutures #journaling #task management #bookmarking #calendaring #flow #getflow #flow application #goal setting #planning

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stoweboyd · 8 years ago

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Complexity, SNAFUs, Dark Debt

John Allspaw pulled a few concepts from Report from the SNAFUcatchers Workshop on Coping With Complexity, a workshop that was named after the March 2017 storm, Stella.

The terms I found most intriguing were SNAFUs and dark debt. As the report authors confess, they are spending their time trying to grapple with the inherent complexity of internet-facing software:

Current generation internet-facing technology platforms are complex and prone to brittle failure. Without the continuous effort of engineers to keep them running they would stop working -- many in days, most in weeks, all within a year. These platforms remain alive and functioning because workers are able to detect anomalies, diagnose their sources, remediate their effect, and repair their flaws and do so ceaselessly -- SNAFU Catching.

SNAFU is derived from the military term, Situation Normal, All Fucked Up, which captures the idea that the brittleness of complex systems is inevitable, and as a result, we have to expect complex systems to wind up in unexpected states, like crashing in unanticipated ways.

My interest in the subject is less about computer systems but rather the growing complexity of business, which is subject to the same effects, although in a different form perhaps. And, at the same time, as so much of what businesses do is computerized and automated, the core meaning of SNAFUs treated in the report is just as compelling.

___STEADY_PAYWALL___

The report details a series of actual cases, but I am more interested in the analysis of the class of problems.

Most important: the SNAFUs are examples of complex systems failures, as defined by Richard Cook, and characterized by the authors like so:

Each anomaly arose from unanticipated, unappreciated interactions between system components.

There was no 'root' cause. Instead, the anomalies arose from multiple latent factors that combined to generate a vulnerability.

The vulnerabilities themselves were present for weeks or months before they played a part in the evolution of an anomaly.

The events involved both external software/hardware (e.g. a server or piece of application from a vendor) and on locally-developed, maintained, and configured software (e.g. programs developed 'in-house', automation scripts, configuration files).

The vulnerabilities were activated by specific events, conditions, or situations.

The activators were minor events, near-nominal operating conditions, or only slightly off-normal situations.

And of course, when complex systems fail, people are part of the cascade of failure. They are surprised when a SNAFU pops up, uncertain how to proceed, and have to fall back on existing mental models and tools to respond to an unanticipated and perhaps totally novel situation.

One of the largest points of discussion at the workshop was dark debt, a term that builds on the concept of technical debt. Ward Cunningham is credited with first use of that concept in a 1992 object-oriented programming paper:

Shipping first-time code is like going into debt. A little debt speeds development so long as it is paid back promptly with a rewrite. Objects make the cost of this transaction tolerable. The danger occurs when the debt is not repaid. Every minute spent on not-quite-right code counts as interest on that debt. Entire engineering organizations can be brought to a stand-still under the debt load of an unconsolidated implementation, object-oriented or otherwise.

But dark debt is something else. It isn't that certain shortcuts were taken in the writing of a program, and that later on that code can be reworked -- 'refactored' to use the programming term of art -- to cover missing use cases or imperfectly realized design choices. Dark debt is a vulnerability inherent in the combination of software behaviors developed independently of each other, often by completely different groups of developers. And such vulnerabilities don't come to light until the SNAFU occurs. As the report puts it, the SNAFUs discussed in the workshop 'arose from unappreciated, subtle interactions between tenuously connected, distant parts of the system'.

They list 10 events that have the profile of Dark Debt:

1. Knight Capital, August 2012

2. AWS, October 2012

3. Medstar, April 2015

4. NYSE, July 2015

5. UAL, July 2015

6. Facebook, September 2015

7. GitHub, January 2016

8. Southwest Airlines, July 2016

9. Delta, August 2016

10. SSP Pure broking, August 2016

IT and Organization: Takeaways

IT is the foundation of work, and businesses simply cannot do what they want to do when the computers go down.

But a larger perspective is based on the inversion of the model taken by the workshop participants, which is to realize that the SNAFUs cannot be viewed solely as an IT system phenomenon. The interactions of people with the systems -- from administrators to users -- and the models in people's heads about the systems -- and their intentions -- are as much a part of the SNAFUs as the software.

I recently wrote Who Owns Work, and Its Future? which considered work and its future as 'a large-scale social problem, something like poverty, illegal immigration, or global climate change'. Work -- at almost every scale -- must be regarded as a 'wicked problem', problems that have innumerable causes, is tough to describe, and don't have a right answer. SNAFUs are wicked problems by another name.

Here's a headline from the news to leave you thinking. As we learn more about the mischief and misdeeds going on inside of Uber -- such as the new revelations about Uber's trade secrets trial with Waymo -- consider the breakdown of the company's business operations as a SNAFU, and that the organization culture is warped by a dark debt of immorality and illegality. And eliminating that dark debt may be incredibly difficult, because it is distributed across IT systems, across organizational units, and buried deep in individual mental models. A truly wicked problem.

So any assessment of dark debt has to include the notion of the implicit cost of revising people's mental models, which may require an organizational culture reboot, in the final analysis. Or, alternatively, utter collapse.

#workfutures #dark debt #snafus #john allpaw #ward cunningham #technical debt #who owns work and its future #uber

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