therealfantasyguru

[therealfantasyguru]

Week 10 Waiver Wire

Week 9 was a pretty wild week to say the least. From injuries, to surprise studs and surprise duds, to some people coming off IR, there is quite a bit to unpack. However, I'm here to help you sift through the news and noise and get down to my top waiver adds for your leagues.

Tank Dell - this rookie had what we all thought was his breakout in weeks two and three which helped him soar up rookie rankings in seasonal and dynasty formats only to see his star drop just as fast and unexpectedly over the next 5 weeks which didn't even equal his week 3 output. With Texans QB CJ Stroud looking like the Texans future signal caller, it also appears he's found a speedy target along Nico Collins that has become one of Strouds favorite options. His increased usage also speaks to at the very minimum, enough targets to be the top priority this week.

2. Keaton Mitchell - the undrafted rookie went from is he too small

to play, to preseason darling, to one of the most hyped players in all of fantasy. His week 9 break out is no fluke and his 4.37 wheels and ridiculous contact balance remind me of a certain someone in Miami that took the league by storm this year before finding his way to IR. Mitchell only has Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in front of him and while Gus will likely take goal line work, Hill isn't anyone to be scared of in this backfield and Mitchell can be the RB2 as soon as this week's divisional matchup against the Browns.

3. Michael Wilson - owned in just 12% of Yahoo leagues and someone who can actually end up being the best person on this list is the rookie from Arizona. He had solid rookie production given he was playing with a backup QB and a team that for all intents and purposes, doesn't have a high powered offense. That may change this week with the return of Kyler Murray and I imagine Wilson's usage and production both take significant leaps over the second half of the season.

Let me know any questions you may have or if you need any more waivers to consider between now and your waiver period!

[therealfantasyguru]

Three Potential Landing Spots for Leonard Fournette

Earlier today, the Jacksonville Jaguars decided to part ways with fourth year running back, Leonard Fournette leaving fantasy managers who have already selected the running back in redraft leagues in instant turmoil. After finishing as RB 7 last season and carrying a lofty ADP of 32 overall, this move is without a doubt the shock of the fantasy off-season. The writing had been on the wall for Leonard Fournette though after the Jaguars decided not to pick up his 5th year option, but owners are still left with a gaping hole in their starting lineups with just 13 days until the start of the regular season.

The fourth pick in the 2017 draft had fallen out of favor with Jacksonville who had been reportedly trying to trade the disgruntled running back to no avail. After receiving no interest according to head coach Doug Marrone, the Jaguars waived Fournette saving $4.1 million in cap space.  Now that Fournette is on the open market, lets take a look at some of the top potential landing spots for the free agent running back.

The Miami Dolphins

Sure, the Dolphins have newly acquired running backs Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, but both have been bit by the injury bug far too often in their young careers and Howard is on his third team in three years. While Breida is a SPARQ superstar with his 99th percentile burst score and 92nd percentile speed score, he’s also lacked durability when given a chance to be “the guy”. Howard is more of a two-down plodder because of his hands and Fournette who reeled in a career high 76 catches last season has proven more than capable of staying on the field for all three downs. The Dolphins could take a flier on the 25-year-old running back who is expected to make $4.167 million in the last year of his rookie deal and the path to fantasy relevance is similar to Miles Sanders’ 2019 campaign in which he also passed up Jordan Howard.

The Pittsburgh Steelers

James Conner is the man in Pittsburgh and when Mike Tomlin chooses a running back to be his lead ball carrier, that person shoulders the load and is given the opportunity to establish a rhythm while having a firm footing in the offense. The problem is, like Breida and Howard in Miami, James Conner can’t seem to stay healthy and was featured in only 10 games last season. The Steelers did draft Anthony Mcfarland in the fourth round of this year’s draft, however, nothing about Mcfarland’s draft capital would suggest a role early in the season and the clear back up in the offense is Benny Snell who has reportedly ran circles around Mcfarland so far in camp. Snell doesn’t appear to be a threat to Conner as the second-year back managed a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry during his rookie season and didn’t exactly seize the lead back job when given the opportunity last season. Fournette himself is just a 4.0 yards per carry guy, but the Steelers boast one of the league’s better offensive lines and a change of scenery could hopefully unlock the Fournette the league’s been waiting on since coming out of LSU in 2017.

The Washington Football Team

Thanks to the departure of Derrius Guice, a person who was a back up to Fournette in college, The Washington Football team could look to bring someone in to replace the second year back out of LSU in what could be one of the more bizarre stories of the 2020 football season. Washington’s other backs are a 35-year-old Adrian Peterson who is in the twilight of his career and 3rd round draft pick Antonio Gibson who is still somewhat of a question mark as he is still learning the position. Bryce Love is also a name worth mentioning but appears to be third at best on Washington’s depth chart. Bringing in Fournette would give them an early down back to either beat out Peterson or be a nice 1-2 punch combo. Whatever the case may be, Washington is Fournette’s clearest path to fantasy relevance as the running back could come in and essentially be the best running back on the roster in a backfield loaded with question marks. Fournette would also take pressure off of second-year QB Dwayne Haskins by keeping defenses honest and replacing all the presumed touches Guice was going to receive in that backfield. If you drafted Fournette and woke up to the news of his release, Washington appears to be the best bet for him to come in and carve out a large role in an offense that could certainly use his services. Stay tuned, the next few days should be very interesting regarding Fournette’s future.

[therealfantasyguru]

Start em' - 5 People that should be in your week 2 Fantasy Football line up

  Week 2 Starts

I don't mention the no brainer starts here and the ONLY time you will see a fantasy star on this list is likely after a head scratching performance, or coming off an injury. Or, is an injury risk of some sort. Here are some Week 2 starters that you should leave in your lineup or consider starting. The Adrian Peterson's and Calvin Johnson's of the fantasy world will never be on this list regardless of the above disclaimer, if you need advice on the elite of the elite then you have come to the wrong blog for fantasy advice.

CJ Spiller vs. The Panthers

I don't care what happened last week and I am not concerned with him playing a strong Carolina Panthers rush defense. Spiller is in the rarefied air of "elite" running backs in this league and has the potential to torch the best defenses in the league even with 8 men in the box. You drafted him in the first round or acquired his services via trade for a reason...do not get cute.

David Wilson vs. The Broncos

That fantasy football gods giveth and they taketh away. Just as EVERY analyst came out of the woodwork nearly spraining a hamstring to jump on the 'David Wilson bandwagon', he has possibly the worst day a running back could ask for (2 fumbles, one of them was one yard out from pay dirt), not to mention he plays for no non-sense coach Tom Coughlin who is known to exile a player or two in his day to his dog house now has Wilson on his short leash. Wilson does have his limitations as a running back--could be better in pass protection and his fumbling problems have actually plagued him all the way back to his Virginia Tech days--but the 2nd-year back is just too scary (the good kind) of a talent to be left off of the field. This weeks opponent is an average run defense at best, so start Wilson and expect the rb to bounce back in a big way. If you are worried about Brandon Jacobs eating into his production, you shouldn't.

Kansas City Defense vs. The Cowboys

I have two reasons why you need to start the Chiefs defense this week, Tony and Romo. If this game were in Big D I would lean towards leaving this improved defense on your bench, however, this game will take place in KC which is one of the most underrated out of the difficult stadiums to play in category and should feast on an injured Romo. As good as Romo can be, this quarterback like a poorly cared for meth lab or faulty nuclear reactor, can malfunction causing catastrophe at any second, and when it goes bad for Romo, it goes really bad.

Jared Cook vs. the Falcons

This has been a few years in the making. I've been preaching from the top of the fantasy mountain top about Jared Cook for years now and my words had been received like a zealot rambling on about the coming apocalypse. All Cook needed was a quality qb to throw the ball in his ridiculous catch radius and to watch the uber talented Tight End come down with it. I am going to do what the Titans coaching staff would not do and blame the whole thing on Jake Locker. Locker will also be the reason why another talented Titan in Kenny Britt will likely be leaving Tennessee after this season as a free agent. Cook is an every week starter and is match up proof as there aren't many Linebackers, Safeties or Nicklebacks that can cover Cook.

TY Hilton vs. Dolphins

TY Hilton's usage is a mystery to me, not the Stonehenge or the Puma Punku type, but can almost be considered as head scratching. Hilton is the second most talented receiver on the team behind an aging Reggie Wayne and while he wont 'Reggie Wayne' Reggie Wayne how Reggie did Marvin Harrison some years back but I think Andrew Luck and the Colts coaching staff knows that good things happen when the ball is in Hilton's hands

  @solomonthewise1

[therealfantasyguru]

Why you shouldn't consider Arian Foster a Top 5 Fantasy Football Draft pick

I wouldn't waste my second pick on Arian Foster if you gave it to me twice. I haven't been locked in some technology-free bunker for the past three years and am totally aware of what the Texans workhouse brings to the table. With complete and unshakeable confidence I can say that Arian Foster will not finish as a top 5 fantasy running back this season, and may even fall out of the top ten. This isn't a bold statement (figuratively speaking, literally it is actually BOLD, "context" people!) to gain attention a la past three years he has been one of the most phenomenal player in fantasy football bowing in countless end zones and leading many to Fantasy Football glory scoring a mouth watering 41 rushing td's.

While Foster's 41 rushing tds has most salivating I am hesitant to get all warm and fuzzy inside, Foster does not have a ton of tread left on his tires racking up 956 carries over the last 3 seasons with evidence of his declined efficiency (4.9 ypc - 2010, 4.4 ypc - 2011, 4.1 ypc - 2012) suggesting that Foster may not be the same rb that set fantasy football ablaze just a few years ago. 2013-2014 will be a different tale for the Cinderella storied running back; Foster who is nursing more injuries than your top 5 fantasy football pick should, is also currently playing ahead of who many insiders would say is a better running back in Ben Tate.

Why he was elite...

Vision: Arian Foster could see the field clearly behind the open holes the Texans (ranked) offensive line would create. Using (elite) vision to survey defenses and read open lanes Foster cpent the last three years torturing defenses who were unable to stack the box. Even when defenses sent 8 man fronts against Foster he still proved efficient.

Patience: Foster does not have elite speed, however he is fast enough and possesses a keen sense of stop-and-go read ability which allows him to follow linemen or change direction and counter a read. Foster can wait for the hole to open and then reach the second level of the defenses secondary forcing touchdown saving tackles throughout the secondary.

Why he possesses serious bust potential...

  Wear and tear: Arian is not an elite level talent by any stretch of the imagination, injuries (calf, hamstring, back) and wear have eaten into his efficiency with declining yards per carry (4.9, 4.4, 4.1 see above) to support the notion. His body has begun to break down slowly over the past few years and its unsure how much tread is left on those tires. If you look back to his collegiate career the 27-year-old has racked up an insane 1650 carries.

Ben Tate: Ben Tate may soon be a household name and ironically it was an injury to Tate a few years back that paved the way for Foster to earn the Texans starting job and become on of fantasy football's most tantalizing running backs.

As I sat two days ago and watched Ben Tate carve up the New Orleans Saint's porous rush defense in what was a meaningless preseason dress rehearsal, I imagined a cold chill running down the spine of Arian Foster (sidelined with back and leg injuries) and his fantasy owners alike. The Texans will remain loyal granting Foster honorary starts but as soon as the fan chants for "TATE" to stay on the field or replace Foster begin to mount, there will be a serious decision for Gary Kubiak to make which will either please Arian Foster or the organization; smart money leans towards him choosing the latter.

Fantasy superstars being usurped by their more talented and/or younger counterparts is not unheard of; in fact, it happens often..Marshall Faulk by Steven Jackson, Priest Holmes by Larry Johnson, Thomas Jones by Jamaal Charles..the list really goes on and on, with the exception of Thomas Jones the rest of the names above were fantasy uber studs prior to being ousted from the starting line up. You've been warned.

[therealfantasyguru]

Fantasy Football 2013: Exit Welker, Hellooo Danny Amendola

Fantasy Football is around the corner and oh my are there question marks heading into the 2013 Fantasy Season.

None more so than former St. Louis Ram and Tom Brady's new best friend Danny Amendola. On paper Amendola and Welker look quite similar which would mean casting Amendola into this year's "elite" category and moving on to the next order of business right...not so fast. While Danny is slightly taller than Wes (2 inches), younger than Wes (32 vs. 27) and faster than Wes (4.58 vs. 4.65 forty yard dash) there is one advantage that Wes holds onto that Danny; he stays on the field.

That being said, I think that staying healthy, which is certainly a talent, is the only ingredient that Danny Amendola is lacking. If he can stay healthy (missed 20 games over past two seasons) for all of the reasons above I feel that he can be GREAT in fantasy football (PPR especially). I don't throw that term around loosely but if Danny Amendola has a monster year of the 120-140 catch variety don't be shocked and remember where you heard it. Danny is alot more athletic than Welker who has been Brady's slot receiving superstar (672 passes in 6 seasons with the Pats, one without Tom thanks to Patriot killer Bernard Pollard) and can do what many slot receivers cannot, stretch the field vertically and bust the defense open over the top.

If Danny stays healthy, he will be the best bargain in Fantasy Football (Matthew Stafford is a close second - stay tuned for that post), he is more dangerous on the field than Wes ever was when healthy and with Aaron Hernandez out (putting it soooo very lightly) Tom and Bill will put there heads together like always and end up using the best of what they have to show the critics that they have been wrong all along, expect Danny to benefit the most out of that.

2013 prediction *playing 16 games

129 catches 1600 yards 12 tds (sounds craaazy doesn't it)

Twitter @solomonthewise1

[therealfantasyguru]

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[therealfantasyguru]

The Best Fantasy rb in the AFC is......

...Darren Mcfadden, and unfortunately for any Chris Johnson owners, it is not even close. Run DMC is currently averaging close to a little over 131 yards a game on the ground and has 4 total touchdowns.  

Mcfadden has all of the tools to be a superstar in the NFL; gamebreaking speed, good hands, above average pass blocking (could be a little better and only one of two bad knocks on this stud, the other being injury prone), and has a lethal stiff arm that helps him rack up those yards after contact.  

All of the tools that will send him to the his first pro bowl this year, are the same ones that will guarantee his spot as one of the top running backs in both the NFL and Fantasy Football for years to come.  If anyone is valuing this guy below other top tier running backs like Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, or Arian Foster (I hate calling him a top tier back, but based on last years value he is still has top tier value) it would be wise to submit a trade proposal for this 24 year old workhorse for the run-heavy Oakland Raiders.

Aside for Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, I do not know another running back in the NFL that combines the speed and power that Mcfadden does.

[therealfantasyguru]

Move over Arian Foster, Ben Tate is the new sheriff in Texas, atleast for week 3 that is...

I have said it before and I will say it again, Arian Foster is OVERRATED.  If you put Jodie Foster behind the Texans o-line and gave her the same holes as Arian saw in 2010, she would have been a top 5 fantasy running back last season too.  

Hamstring injuries have slowed down last years rushing champion and frustrated every fantasy owner thus far that decided to roll the dice and pick him over the consensus top pick Adrian Peterson.

In steps Ben Tate.  A year removed from a season ending injury that stripped him from any chance of fantasy glory last year, Ben Tate is now a name worth knowing in fantasy circles.  If you have him this week, you start him. If you are in a league where he is available (not likely) you PICK HIM UP.  If your in a league where a Ben Tate owner has no idea who he is or why he is on their team, you trade for him.

Tate has the potential to be a fantasy superstar this year.  He is more talented than Arian Foster, can stay on the field on third down because he can pass block and catch out of the backfield and for the time being, he is healthier than Arian Foster (hamstrings can linger ALL SEASON LONG hint hint).

[therealfantasyguru]

If you could start 3 WR for Week 2: Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Johnny Knox, Early Doucet

Brandon Lloyd is a big question mark this week so Id monitor his health situation. I'd go with Meachem, Early Doucet, and Johnny Knox in that order. If Lloyd plays I'd keep knox off the roster this week.

[therealfantasyguru]

Sell High!! Buy Low!!

Greed is not always good.  You saw what greed did to good ol' Gordon in the fictitious world of Wall Street(not so bad for him in Wall Street 2 Money Never Sleeps but we will ignore that fairy tale ending), in fantasy football however, different principles may apply; it is more about knowing when to be greedy and when to cash your chips in. 

Sell High

If you have CAM NEWTON and your considering letting him START against the Packers I propose this to you, DONT.  That little tidbit has absolutely nothing to do with this post but I just want to throw it out there incase you dont get a chance to read my Week 2 Start em' Sit em' post that should be following this one.

Cam torched an under prepared, banged up Cardinals secondary that was at the whim of some blitz-happy play calling, incase your wondering why Steve Smith looked like he was practically uncovered in every highlight reel that has been airing on television since the rookies 422 yard coming out party.  Dom Capers (the Packers defensive coordinator) will keep pressure on the rookie and throw many schemes and zone blitzes that will bring Newton's numbers back down to earth and his value tumbling right on back down with it (Not everything that goes up in the fantasy football world must come down but in this case im sorry Mr. Newton). If you have some one itching to take Cam off of your team I'd pull the trigger if the value was right.  I am not saying that the young Qb will not be a stud this year, I am just cautioning that if he happens to lay an egg against the defending champs all of those trade proposals you've been losing sleep over may be gone.

 Buy Low

Percy Harvin

Simply put, with the exception of Adrian Peterson and a 100 plus yard kick return by Percy Harvin the Vikings offense was dreadful, and that may be putting it lightly.  Percy Harvin is the unquestioned top target in a Minnesotta offense that I see being much better than they were in San Diego the rest of the season and he is in that lucky third-year for wide receivers when the light switch mysteriously turns on all of a sudden and they become fantasy gold.

It is only week 1 so this list is going to be pretty short at this point, as the weeks begin to accumulate I wil have more fantasy stock watch and trade advice.

[therealfantasyguru]

week one notables and waiver wire pick ups

What ive learned through the first half of the day so far, Cam Newton is good...or atleast has the potential to be.  422 yards with 2 passing tds and 1 rushing td, for a rookie debut on the road, that is not a bad outing; actually, tied for the single game rookie record in passing yards. He is STILL available in 67 % of yahoo sports leagues.

The Lions are FOR REAL.  Matthew Stafford is good and Calvin "Megatron" Johnson is going to be spectacular this year (was one horrible Stafford throw away from having three td's on the day).

Brandon Pettigrew had 6 targets on the day and nearly had a score.  he is clearly the dominant tight end in a very underrated Lions offense and is a break out candidate if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy.

Ryan Fitzpatrick torched the Chiefs in KC.  I was a big Ryan Fitzpatrick skeptic prior to the start of the season, after seeing him throw four touchdowns on an improved KC defense im a believer. 

Mike Tolbert gets too many touches in San Diego to be ignored.  Let's get this straight, I hate hate HATE running back committees, but it is clear hear that Tolbert is the better blocking back is on the field for the crucial third down blocking/passing plays and is the Charger's goal-line vulture.  Matthews may be the more talented back and the future of the San Diego Chargers, but Tolbert is going to score points this year.

Trade Kevin Kolb.  His numbers were good today; but very misleading.  Both of his touchdowns came on blown third down plays by the Panther's Defense and he looked shaky behind the inconsistent Cardinal's offensive line.  He is still a solid fantasy qb, but if you have a trade partner that is high on Kolb, pull the trigger.  Kolb is not in my top ten of fantasy qbs this year, the only reason that he is close is because of how weak the Cardinals schedule is this season.

[therealfantasyguru]

BUYER BEWARE!! Arian Foster will not be a top 5 Fantasy Running Back in 2011

Fantasy columnists have this man listed as the #1 or #2 fantasy running back. I am here to tell you that there will be no fantasy player responsible for more fantasy buyer's remorse than Texans running back Arian Foster.

For those of you who have already drafted Arian Foster...I am sorry that I did not write this post sooner, for those of you lucky enough to have your draft day still coming up on the calendar, I guess this post is for you. It is officially time for me to share my hatred for this man which started last preseason with an ankle injury to rookie Ben Tate and explain why this slightly above-average running back is SEVERELY overrated and highly unlikely to repeat last years break out performance.

I have more than a few reasons not to like this man or touch him in any of my up coming fantasy drafts and this list has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that he bows after every touchdown or the fact that he recently shunned the fantasy community...from the words of Arian Foster himself "4 those sincerely concerned, I'm doing ok & plan 2 B back by opening day. 4 those worried abt your fantasy team, u ppl are sick" (dont worry sick people I am one of you, probably the sickest by Arian's standards).

The slightly pulled or torn hammy (depending on whose speculation you are buying into) that has all the major fantasy football websites buzzing is the most recent of Arian Foster's red flags, but certainly not the last.  The hamstring is a running back and wide receiver's nightmare.  It is an injury that can be easily re-aggravated or worsen without complete rest and effects an athletes explosiveness (Arian Foster ran a 4.73 and 4.69 at the combine, not exactly a speed demon).

BEN TATE--His name is in CAPS FOR A REASON, IF YOU HAVENT PICKED HIM UP IN FANTASY YET, STOP READING THIS AMAZING POST, LOG-IN TO WHICHEVER FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE YOU ARE PLAYING WITH AND PICK HIM UP. Tate is probably the second most physically talented Auburn Running back ever, Bo Jackson, unquestionably being the first. While Arian Foster was considered a nobody out of college, Ben Tate was listed as a fantasy sleeper before breaking his ankle last pre-season and being placed on IR, leaving the competition for the Texans starting running back job up for grabs between fumble happy Steve Slaton and then 2nd year unknown running back out of Tennessee Arian Foster.  This preseason Tate has already shown flashes of brilliance, if Tate can beat out Derrick Ward he will be the clear cut #2 running back behind ailing Arian Foster and heir to the Texan's running back throne behind the same amazing offensive line that made Arian Foster look like he was OJ Simpson.

Subjectively speaking I personally dislike Arian Foster for what he does off of the field, objectively speaking, Arian Foster is a good running back that just happened to fall into a GREAT situation for any running back. He is on a Texans Team that boasts one of the leagues best offensive lines, not to mention Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson make defenses respect the pass as much or more so than they have to respect the run. He is not the flashiest running back but thrives in a Texans offense that plays against an AFC South division that ranked among the leagues worst in stopping the run.

If you have a top 5 pick and decide to chose a running back this year, here is a list of people that will help anchor your team to fantasy glory...

Adrian Peterson (Has been a top 5 rb since his rookie season).

Chris Johnson (CJ may be holding out right now, but the Titans will be pulling out that checkbook in plenty of time for him to show his contract worth @ jacksonville week 1).

Jamaal Charles (finally a starter, averaged 6.4 yards a carry wasting half of the season splitting carries with Thomas Jones).

Ray Rice (now getting goal line carries and a catch machine, could be the most underrated of the top backs in fantasy).

LeSean Mccoy (I am not 100 percent sold on the "dream team" but Vick loves to check down to Mccoy an this rb is good at making people miss in the open field).

[therealfantasyguru]

The Peyton Manning Effect

Arguably the most consistent fantasy quarterback since his rookie season in 1998, Peyton Manning has given colts fans and fantasy owners alike absolutely NOTHING to worry about over the last 13 seasons (throwing atleast 26 tds and 208 consecutive starts).  Well Indianapolis we have a problem.  As if signing Kerry Collins wasnt reason enough to raise the threat level to DEFCON 1, Peyton Manning himself looks like a quarterback who has already conceded to missing week 1 against division rivals Houston.  

With Peyton's neck injury leaves a dark cloud of uncertainty over the state of Indiana, it also leaves a BIG question mark on the fantasy values of teammates Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Joseph Addai/Delone Carter (is Joseph Addai still alive?).  The most likely to survive without Peyton is tight end catch machine Dallas Clark.  Least likely to come away from this unscathed has got to be Reggie Wayne, and if you listen to his rant here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6891243/indianapolis-colts-add-kerry-collins-sources-doubt-peyton-manning-ready, it is clear as day that he knows it.

If your draft is coming up and you have ANY colts that your itching to draft on your big board, DONT. If you like to roll the dice id draft them late where they can be a value pick.  I am not a medical doctor but it does not take a licensed practitioner to tell you that neck injuries are never good, just ask Sterling Sharpe.  At the end of the day Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning and it is impossible to rule him out for any week...that being said being stubborn and drafting Peyton, Wayne, Clark, or Addai as if Peyton were under center is foolish...if you take any of these players early then you deserve the gaping hole that they may leave in your fantasy lineup...like life, fantasy is full of options, choose wisely!

[therealfantasyguru]

Julio Jones--your fantasy rookie of the year

His combine numbers (4.39 in the 40 and 38.5'' vertical jump)  are not what impress me the most about this freak of football nature, its the fact that he landed in Atlanta opposite Roddy White and Quasi-elite QB Matt Ryan.  After getting outgunned in a sorry excuse for a divisional round matchup, Atlanta left Georgia Dome with their tales between their legs and an obvious need for some resemblance of a wide receiver opposite Roddy White (Michael Jenkins this post is for you).

It has been a long time in fantasy football since a highly talented rookie wide receiver has played in such a promising situation..the name Randy Moss in 98' is the only situation that comes to mind.  Though Randy he is NOT, Julio has a chance to not only produce as a fantasy rookie, but to shine in Atlanta's new look pass happy offense. While All Pro Roddy White will be facing most of the teams number one corner backs, Julio Jones will be out running, overpowering and out jumping the opposing teams number 2 corner all season long. 

Ryan Williams out fo the season, Mikel LeShoure out for the season, Daniel thomas (crowded backfield), Mark Ingram (see Daniel Thomas). AJ Green, uber-talented but in a depressingly awful situation with Rookie stalwart Andy Dalton.  Julio is the clear cut choice, this one is not even close...almost a waste of a post...but prediction nonetheless! Im going to keep them rolling....I feel some hatred for Arian Foster oozing into the next post...

[therealfantasyguru]

Dont Expect Last Year's Michael Vick

BEWARE THE CHARMS OF THIS MAN.  Last years statistical output by this reformed fantasy superstar was not a fluke, Michael Vick is back. Thanks to Kevin Kolb's inability to take advantage of a good situation, the fantasy world was forced to watch this waiver wire miracle cut thru defense after defense like some gamer playing Madden on rookie for most of the 2010 season.  For the skeptics... Michael Vick put his stamp on his return to the fantasy world on an electric Monday night in Washington where he ripped my fantasy team to shreds scoring like ten thousand points and doing everything but turn water to wine as the Redskins looked like a jv team being coached by the team mascot.

All praise aside, that was last year.  If you paid attention to the end of the season, defensive coordinators saw a chink in Mike's armor. Coming back from prison #7 managed to become more than just an erratic passer who was fast enough to make up for his lack of pure passing skills.  This blew coaches away for the first 10 weeks of the season until teams caught on. Blitzing schemes and continued quarterback pressure caused Vick to look human the last 5 weeks of the season (5 consecutive weeks with an int, 6 if you count his loss in at home to the Packers in the playoffs).

Now with a full offseason of preparation plus the Eagles offensive line woes I see Vick finishing high among fantasy qb's but nowhere near the level of fantasy greatness that all of the analysts are projecting him to have.  

WHO ID DRAFT OVER HIM: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson (he is getting paid, and cant wait to prove his contract worth), Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles. 

Notice I left out Arian Foster....We will get to that

[therealfantasyguru]

And the number 1 Wide Receiver in Fantasy Football this year will be.....

Calvin "MEGATRON" Johnson. Without a doubt. I know what you are thinking...Calvin has NEVER led the league in catches. Calvin has NEVER led the league in touchdowns, Calvin has NEVER led the league in receiving yards. Calvin is a Detroit Lion. There are plenty of reasons to reject my idea of Megatron being the number 1 wide receiver in fantasy but I dont care.  Calvin has also NEVER had a solid quarterback for an entire football season or been in a situation to lead the league in the laundry list of categories I listed earlier and he has still come close..

Last season Calvin Johnson tied for 2nd in receiving td's with 12 (standing alone in 2nd with 13 if you count that awful call at Chicago week 1). If Mr. Glass aka Matthew Stafford can manage a full season Calvin will finally show the fantasy world why he was drafted second overal in the 2007 NFL Draft. Calvin will set career highs in all of the receiving categories and be the unquestioned trendy pick in the fantasy draft next season.  THIS season is you want to take your league by storm let the people ahead of you take Andre Johnson or Roddy White off of the board. Megatron would be a steal as the third wide receiver taken.

Heard it hear first.  More bold predictions to come...

[therealfantasyguru]

I am the best in fantasy football, yea I said it.

Ok so for those of you that are skeptical, lets check the resume:

I have never finished worse than 3rd in any league that I have ever been in (this includes leagues that range from 6 to 12 people, ppr, non ppr, keeper leauges, etc).  I was in 4 super bowls last year and won 3 of them (the one loss was on a fluke, if you ask me Joe Webb being played at qb/wr/te is a crock of shit). 

Im going to let you in on a little secret, being good at Fantasy Football doesnt require you to have an overstock of useless fantasy football knowledge all the way down to the player's favorite food or to have access to Mike Fabiano or Matthew Berry's cell phone numbers, its all about managing your expectations of players and following trends...plain and simple. I draft and trade based on player expectations and start players based on my GUT. Rather than blab on about being good at fantasy football id rather just make some bold predictions for this upcoming season and sit back and watch them come true, again.

Stay tuned people...fantasy football knowledge is going to be kicked your way all season long..