#Audi Q3 Engine Suppliers

[atomicdinosaurdonut]

Digital Instrument Cluster Market For Automotive 2021| Analysis By Current Industry Status & Growth Opportunities, Top Key Players, Target Audience And Forecast To 2027

Apart from mobile, the automotive market is another market where new technologies and new innovations keep coming into existence. During the early 20th century, the supply of automobiles was limited while demand was high. Later, with technological advancement, the automobile industry grew, incorporating 99% mechanical moving parts and 1% electrical components like blinkers, headlights, tail lamp, etc. Later electronic components also became a part of automobiles, resulting in enhanced and improved functionality but a complex system. To reduce complexity, automakers started using minicomputers/microprocessors. Their objective was to make automobile interface more reliable, fast working and independent of the car functioning. However, minicomputers required a proper and simple, yet efficient display mechanism. Necessity is the mother of invention. Hence, this leads to the invention of electronic display or the digital display cluster in the automobile which is a digital panel that shows a set of parameters like the vehicle speed, the engine rpm, the fuel capacity and the utilized fuel from the fuel tank. This penal provides the driver, precise information about the vehicle functionality related parameters in a way that is easy on the eye. Market Research Future (MRFR) has published a research report about the global automotive digital instrument cluster market that estimates the upswing in this market with a 20% CAGR between 2017 and 2023. This report comprises of not only extensive primary research but also the detailed analysis of qualitative as well as quantitative aspects by various industry experts, key opinion leaders to gain the deeper insight of the market and industry performance. It analyzes the current market scenario, with historical and projected market size in terms of value and volume, macroeconomic and governing factors, and technological advancement, in the market. The report profiles the key players in the industry, observing their business strategies. According to this report, the factors responsible for the growth of the automotive digital instrument cluster market include the easily readable and comprehensible digital display panel, confused and fatigued drivers failing to comprehend the readings shown on the analog systems, and the preference for digital panels among vehicle service personnel due to the precise and easy to read information display that aids the diagnostic and vehicle repair. Economies of scale, with respect to manufacturing and maintenance of these digital systems, while the bulk is producing the thousands of cars, also adds to the market growth. Get a FREE Report Sample -  https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/sample_request/5710

The global automotive digital instrument cluster market has been segmented into display size, display type, type of fuel used, and lastly region. On the basis of display size, this market has been segmented into 5-8 inches, 9-11 inches and above 12 inches. By display type, the market has been segmented into liquid crystal display (LCD), an organic light-emitting diode (OLED), and Thin-film-transistor liquid-crystal display (TFT-LCD). LCD is a form of the visual display where a layer of a liquid crystal is sandwiched between two transparent electrodes. OLED is a light-emitting diode (LED) whose emissive electroluminescent layer features a film of organic compound that emits light via electric current. TFT-LCD is a variant of an LCD that uses TFT technology in order to improve image qualities. On the basis of the type of fuel used, the market has been segmented into battery electric vehicle (BEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), Diesel and Petrol. BEV is a type of electric vehicle (EV) that uses chemical energy stored in rechargeable battery packs. HEV combines a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) system with an electric propulsion system (hybrid vehicle drivetrain). According to this report, all five types are expected to witness an upward trend in shifting to the digital cluster system. This is possible due to the simplicity and user-friendly design of the digital instrument cluster system. The regional segmentation of the global automotive digital instrument cluster market has been segmented into North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Rest of the World (RoW). North America has witnessed a consistent rise in the number of automobiles plying on the road and this is expected to continue during the forecast period. Biggest markets in this region are the United States of America (USA) and Canada. Due to mediocre public transport system in North America, customers prefer personal vehicles for carrying out their daily activities. The digital instrument cluster provides greater control over the vehicle. It also offers better visibility of all the possible vehicle parameters, which is beneficial to customers during long-distance journeys. Due to many key players of this market being based in Europe and large population, the market for automotive digital instrument cluster is big here also. In Europe, high-end cars have always been prevalent, because they are better complimented with high tech digital instrument cluster systems. In Europe, the biggest markets for the automotive digital instrument cluster are France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom (UK). Due to Japan, the home of many advanced cars, the Asia Pacific automotive market has always had a strong global presence. Japanese cars support advanced digital instrument cluster, and their sales are very good in India and China. Apart from China, India, and Japan, the market for automotive digital instrument cluster is rising in remaining Asia Pacific countries too. Key Players The key players in global automotive digital instrument cluster market include Alpine Electronics, Inc.(Japan), Continental AG (Germany), Delphi Technologies (UK), Denso Corporation (Japan), IAC Group (Luxembourg), ID4Motion (Netherlands), Luxoft (Switzerland), Magneti Marelli S.p.A. (Italy), Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (Japan), Nippon Seiki Company Ltd. (Japan), Nvidia Corporation (USA), Panasonic (Japan), Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), Sharp Corporation (Japan), Visteon Corporation (USA), and Yazaki Corporation (Japan). Latest Industry News

Byton’s first production vehicles will feature technology from BlackBerry that would introduce unique digital instrument clusters in their cars. The new technology includes BlackBerry’s Hypervisor 2.0 software and QNX SDP 7.0 real-time operating system. BlackBerry was chosen as a supplier for its ability to partition and isolate safety-critical and non-critical systems. 4 JUL 2018

Audi has done away with analog instruments. In the new Audi Q3, even the standard specification on the base model includes a digital instrument cluster with a 10,25-inch screen diagonal. And with the top-of-the-line Man-Machine-Interface (MMI) navigation plus system specified, the displays appear in the brand’s so-called “virtual cockpit” arrangement. 25 JUL 2018

Get a FREE Report Sample -  https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/sample_request/5710

Key Questions Addressed by the Report

What was the historic market size?

Which segmentation (Product/ Capacity) is driving market?

What will be the growth rate?

How are the key players in this market?

What are the strategies adopted by key players?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 SCOPE OF THE REPORT 2.1 MARKET DEFINITION 2.2 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 2.2.1 DEFINITION 2.2.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 2.2.3 ASSUMPTIONS 2.2.4 LIMITATIONS 2.3 RESEARCH PROCESS 2.3.1 PRIMARY RESEARCH 2.3.2 SECONDARY RESEARCH 2.4 MARKET SIZE ESTIMATION 2.5 FORECAST MODEL 3 MARKET LANDSCAPE 3.1.1 THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS 3.1.2 BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS 3.1.3 THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES 3.1.4 SEGMENT RIVALRY 3.1.5 BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS 3.2 VALUE CHAIN/SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSIS 4 MARKET DYNAMICS 4.1 INTRODUCTION 4.2 MARKET DRIVERS 4.3 MARKET RESTRAINTS 4.4 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES 4.5 MARKET TRENDS About Market Research Future: At Market Research Future (MRFR), we enable our customers to unravel the complexity of various industries through our Cooked Research Report (CRR), Half-Cooked Research Reports (HCRR), Raw Research Reports (3R), Continuous-Feed Research (CFR), and Market Research & Consulting Edibles. MRFR team have supreme objective to provide the optimum quality market research and intelligence services to our clients. Our market research studies by products, services, technologies, applications, end users, and market players for global, regional, and country level market segments, enable our clients to see more, know more, and do more, which help to answer all their most important questions. Media Contact Company Name: Market Research Future Contact Person: Abhishek Sawant Email: Send Email Phone: +1 646 845 9312 Address:Market Research Future Office No. 528, Amanora Chambers Magarpatta Road, Hadapsar City: Pune State: Maharashtra Country: India Website: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com

Browse Complete Report - https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/automotive-digital-instrument-cluster-market-5710

[hostingnewsfeed]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

[lazilysillyprince]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

[smartwebhostingblog]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

[awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

[lovelyfantasticfart]

Volvo Of Halifax

Instantly after putting in the answer, I had been outfitted to personalize my world-large-web interface web sites inside subject of minutes. It鈥檚 important within the path of backlink inside a steady, very well thing to contemplate out trend that customers can find out towards navigate. I did have some 5 level, three inch vast harnesses in there, however since Takata grew to become an official supplier to Speedhunters I obtained the prospect to attempt their product out. That signifies your self need to have in route of employ the service of the exact same emblem, graphics, bullets, fonts, and shades. If you're a fan of luxury sedans, but want extra utility, the Audi Q3 is the reply. For those who have been to hire an Audi Q7 from Hertz, there is a good likelihood that you are happening a highway trip with your folks or household. Audi A4 may be outfitted Side Assist 鈥榮 and a premium audio dynamic address Adaptive Cruise Management Audi S Line Interior bundle electric rear window blind and curtain facet rear guide system. With a curb weight of just 1,995 kilograms (4,398.2 lb) (as 3.0 TDI), the brand new Audi Q7 is the lightest in its class.

We all know the story of BMW going into the sport utility market, particularly it was a daring move for somebody who is focuses on driver eccentric sedans and sports activities cars. Please tell us your views at publisher@cleanfleetreport.com. 9. The well-known automobile producer really stopped manufacturing cars in 1971 after the corporate was crippled by the development of the RB211 jet engine. Is the 2016 BMW 5 Series a great Used Car? Volvo Villa, your Volvo Villa used car retailer stocks an unlimited collection of Certified Pre-Owned Volvos for you to choose from. The 2016 Volvo XC90 is a 3-row, luxurious all-wheel-drive crossover with seating for up to seven passengers and serves as the brand鈥檚 flagship. Carling Motors Co. Restricted is located in Ottawa, Ontario and serves as your Ontario Volvo Seller. Volvo of Halifax is located in Halifax, Nova Scotia and serves as your Nova Scotia Volvo Seller. For sale : 1970 Volvo 122S . Auto On the market On Auto Trader South Africa Automobile .2004 VOLVO XC90 Auto On the market On Auto Trader South Africa Automobile Specs: 0 km SUV 3.2 l Petrol .

Malfunctioning elements can both lower the driving consolation or hinder the general effectivity of your motor vehicle, causing any of the following: inefficient fuel mileage, lousy general efficiency, or greater exposure to unexpected motor vehicle or hardware breakdown. Not to overlook, choose a high octane gasoline to avoid gas contamination and problems. On the track I can go 4 classes on a tank of gasoline which is great. MMI will be inscrutable and distracting as a substitute of returning on its promise of streamlining operation, too. You are able to do it: spitfire seat re-protecting step-by-step. This stainless steel made strap can make your wrist extra trendy and beautiful than earlier. The interior seems to suit the occupants like a effectively-made sports jacket. Despite some issues with steering and being weighted down, the S90 is a reliable and gasoline-environment friendly automobile that's worthy of taking for a test drive. The rear and front spoilers are deliberate to power the air beneath the automobile.

100 km/h runs are reached in 7.6 seconds and acceleration from 60 to one hundred twenty km/h in fifth gear is just below 12 seconds. The security features contained on this mini SUV are security bags (all-around), doorway hair, rearview digicam, anti-locking mechanism braking system and anti-robbery alarm programs. All-season tires are an accessible choice. Their staff is very enthusiastic and they won't provide you with a chance to complain. Volvo's DSTC stability control, RSC Roll Stability Management, a vastly superior braking system in action. Fast ahead to earlier right now, my mom tells me Porsche known as and stated it was in, so naturally I'm excited and drive right over to Schneider/Nelson to drop off the White Cayenne, with no thought what I am getting in any respect. A watch with a white face, maybe mom of pearl and roman numerals is a protected path to go. There isn't a 5.0-liter V-eight underneath its hood; truly, BMW has remaining the V-8 diesels to Rolls royce and Nova fully.

What kind of oil must be use in a BMW? The info seem to be that the rustics were smugglers who have been raking in the river for the brandy-kegs that they had deposited there within the gray of the morning, under the name of the Irish Titles Act. All MDX models come equipped with a Multi-View Rear Digital camera with Dynamic Tips. Nicely I believe the Swedish marque's products before. The usual Kit contains headlights, taillights, and side reflectors. This is a large step up from the original Boppy pillows that had cute covers however might only be spot cleaned. 2. Remove the three bolts along the bottom of the aux. A banker will not necessarily see a project as much less dangerous just because it is a franchise. Torque lb. - ft.SAE net , 236 @ 1,500 - 4,500 rpm, 325 .Find specifications for every 2006 Volvo XC90: gasoline mileage, engine, 2006 Volvo XC90 2.5T 7-p.enger Specs Max Trailer Weight: 2250 kg.. However in reality the mix of car and screen hero has to be credible - actor Robert Downey Jr. sees it this way too.

from Blogger https://ift.tt/3fFYkqF

[csrgood]

2019 Sees Bridgestone EMEA, in Partnership with Leading Car Manufacturers, Strengthen its Commitment to a More Sustainable, CASE-oriented Future

For nearly 90 years, Bridgestone has provided premium products and services to the world’s leading Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). In 2019, Bridgestone remained the number one choice for BMW, Audi, SEAT and Toyota, while continuing to serve as primary supplier for manufacturers including Volkswagen, Skoda and Mercedes.

As the world’s largest tyre and rubber company and the industry’s leading investor in research and development, car manufacturers sought Bridgestone’s expertise and dedication on various partnerships throughout the year – from ground-breaking CASE (Connected, Autonomous,  Shared and Electric) projects to the key performance benefits of new tyre technologies and solutions, such as the innovative Enliten technology. As a result of these strong partnerships, Bridgestone was successful in providing approximately 100 new original fitments in EMEA, spread across more than 50 different models from 14 manufacturers. In addition, the company saw fitments for tyres with a diameter of 18” or greater (HDR+) grow by over 10 percent from 2018.

Introducing Enliten

In 2019, Bridgestone pioneered a new lightweight tyre technology, Enliten, to help address global mobility challenges around sustainability. 

Engineered with the environment front of mind, Enliten enables tyres to have a super low rolling resistance – a key factor in a vehicle’s fuel efficiency and battery use – while requiring less materials to be created – reducing the tyre’s environmental footprint and also improving fuel efficiency or battery range. In 2019, Enliten was brought to the roads for the first time on Volkswagen’s new, all-electric ID.3 and the Audi RS Q3. 2020 will see Bridgestone work to bring Enliten’s benefits to even more models and manufacturers.

A record-breaking partnership 

No matter how great the challenge, Bridgestone is committed to helping its OEM partners achieve their goals. This year was no different, with the company developing record-breaking tyres for the likes of Volkswagen and Renault. 

Bridgestone and Volkswagen’s long-time partnership was put to the test on the racetrack in 2019. Custom-engineered Bridgestone Potenza tyres were specially developed for Volkswagen’s electric supercar, the ID.R. The tyres delivered the confidence and performance to help Volkswagen break the world famous Nürburgring-Nordschleife’s EV track record by 40.56 seconds.

Renault Mégane R.S. Trophy-R also broke an Nürburgring record on high performance Potenza S007 tyres, showcasing the prowess of Bridgestone tyres, and the company’s dedication to its partners. 

Developing CASE and space mobility  

As technology and global challenges evolve, Bridgestone is investing in the future. In addition to its new Enliten lightweight tyre technology, the company’s proprietary technologies, such as B-Silent reducing in-vehicle noise, B-Seal and Run-Flat Technology for continuous mobility and ologic technology lowering rolling resistance, are helping meet new mobility demands and responding to the requirements of OEMs to help make CASE and sustainable mobility a reality for all.

In 2019, SEAT chose to apply Bridgestone’s renowned ologic technology to equip its Minimó electric concept car. The small two-passenger, all-electric vehicle is engineered to adapt to the mobility platforms that will shape the future of urban driving. The year also saw bespoke Bridgestone Connect ‘smart’ tyres, which relay information on tyre load, pressures, grip level and tyre health to the interior screens, custom developed for Nissan’s IMQ EV concept vehicle. 

Bridgestone Corporation also partnered with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Toyota to commit to an international space exploration mission. Bridgestone will help explore the mobility challenges and performance needs of tyres for use on manned, pressurized rovers to help them make better contact with the surface of the moon.

Commenting on Bridgestone’s achievements in 2019 was Mark Tejedor, VP Original Equipment, Bridgestone EMIA: “Sustainability, CASE mobility and partnerships were three huge focuses for us in 2019. Which is no surprise – these are the crucial ingredients needed for a smarter, more efficient future of mobility. Through innovating and taking on new and demanding challenges – alongside great partners working under a similar vision to meet similar goals – we’ll bring this era of mobility to life. I have no doubt that we will go even further in meeting this goal in 2020.”

Media information: Liesbeth Denys Director PR and Corporate Communications MIA +32 478 78 26 22 

1 Enliten educes rolling resistance by, on average, 20 percent from a standard premium summer touring OE fitment, and weight by 10 percent, which also means that less material resources are used in manufacturing. Based on Bridgestone internal tests according to ISO28580 procedure considering Bridgestone Turanza T005 205/55R16 91H and Bridgestone Turanza T005 255/40R20 101W. 2 JAXA and Toyota Reach Agreement on Consideration toward International Space Exploration (news release issued by Toyota Motor Corporation) https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/27059582.html

source: https://www.csrwire.com/press_releases/43359-2019-Sees-Bridgestone-EMEA-in-Partnership-with-Leading-Car-Manufacturers-Strengthen-its-Commitment-to-a-More-Sustainable-CASE-oriented-Future?tracking_source=rss

[corrinex6416833-blog]

README.md At Expert. Google.

Given that the European Commission (EC) announced its initial questions into Google.com's company methods in 2010, the firm has actually been the subject matter of prolonged inspections through judges and also competition firms around the globe Governing authorities in the USA, France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil, and also South Korea possess all opened and also declined similar antitrust cases. Previously handful of times there certainly has actually been actually an outbreak from messages regarding Fiat Chrysler Automobiles ending production of the Dodge Viper in 2017 and shutting the Conner Opportunity Setting up facility where the v-10 powered sportscar is actually hand-built. The biggest civil lawsuits resolution in US past, among the MSA's core reasons was to lower smoking - as well as particularly youth smoking - in the United States. By checking the FTC's discretion to pursue these providers as if they prevailed fraudsters, the court of law has offered individuals an essential triumph. Latest FTC situations, consisting of Intel, N-Data, Google.com (Motorola), and Bosch, could possibly all have been actually taken under the Sherman Action, however were carried-- as well as resolved-- as Area 5 cases rather. The 2010 Horizontal Merging Standards, although even more stylish in comparison to prior variations, provide relatively short shrift to productivities (as Josh Wright has actually revealed ). The Obama Judicature Division's drawback in 2009 of its own ancestor's Sherman Process Part Pair of Record (which had actually highlighted mistake prices and also proposed easy guidelines for determining monopolization instances) highlighted a desire for hostile enforcement," without supplying particular guidance for the economic sector. Affection is actually the fundamental and inherent job from every person." These words were communicated through St. John Paul II in his 1981 Apostolic Exhortation Familiaris Consortio (On the Function of the Religious Family members in the Modern World ). In a world engaged in a complexity of issues, they are important phrases to consider. For those along with economic difficulties printing out the components, purchasing a binder, travelling to an event, spending for car parking, you can easily stand up to $10 compensated for publishing products and also obtaining a binder per month, as well as individually around $20 for journeying to an activity, such as gas, purchasing parking, rate from access, and as much as $TWENTY for event-themed expenses, like helping make a PTP sign for visibility at an activity such as a march or political rally. The majority of us recognize that - as well as our antitrust companies' questions with other industries verify that - IP civil liberties are probabilistic in attributes. You've been dealt with effectively by cars you maintained, I've been managed severely. Their theories illustrate a balance condition of perfect competitors because that is just what's very easy to style, certainly not because this exemplifies the very best from company. While I experience our team must hold all of them fiscally answerable, I adore the concept of the Pro-Truth Vow due to the fact that it holds all of them responsible to their words as well. No, this really isn't yet another unconvincing rumor-mongering message accordinged to still guesswork; Toyota's own Tetsuya Tada, primary engineer for the 86, verified to Best Equipment that two more sports cars are in the pipe.

The Truth Concerning gel Is About To Be actually Shown.

7 Quick Tips For gel.

Borders's organisation was to communicate info by means of manuals, which involved eliminating plants, chopping them in to newspaper, gluing them with each other, delivering them on significant vehicles to retail stores, to which consumers were actually assumed to drive in all type of weather condition. The purchasers who still need these type of lorries understand that this's permanently- so they'll be acquiring, certainly not leasing in any case. Defeating the Honda HR-V, Chevrolet Trax, and Vehicle Insurgent to the hit, the XV Crosstrek created substantial as well as constant year-over-year U.S. If you adored this article and you simply would like to receive more info relating to mouse click for source generously visit our site. purchases growth. As the taking care of director from Public law at Fact Project ®, she creates and ensures policy settings to prevent youth coming from making use of cigarette as well as to aid tobacco individuals give up. Tom Rosch, for example, has recommended that the FTC must test License Assertion Entities under Part 5 simply because our experts possess a gut feeling" that the perform breaches the Process and also this might certainly not be actually actionable under Segment 2.

7 Great Ways To Advertise gel.

The Working Team has likewise launched an online Rewards System," which finds to provide ICN members with expertise, techniques and arguments for detailing the advantages from competitors to support their competition advocacy initiatives with authorities and non-government stakeholders, along with in the examination from competitors interferences." All said to, amongst each of the ICN's initiatives, the AWG's projects hold out the greatest potential for enhancing economical well-being, given that government disturbance in affordable processes tend to be much more serious, distortive, and resilient in comparison to plain private restraints. Well, CAFE certainly Crossovers, as automobile like as they may be actually, are actually more beneficial for auto producers looking to comply with CAFE specifications, and also Audi really isn't heading to all this trouble to have actually the Q3 visited as an auto. In Subaru's off April 2015 to April 2016, the car manufacturer completed with virtually 1 million purchases of four-wheel drive cars-- 245,382 more than the next-highest-volume all-wheel-drive supplier: Audi.

[thesweatystudententhusiastfan]

2018 Cadillac XT4 Redesign and Release Date – The 2018 Cadillac XT4 is emerging with security measures, cozy chairs, and technological innovation that will see the car be a quick obtain in the market. It can have risen features and a linear system that is made for top rated rate. It has been intended to major competitor gamers in the car sector relating to functionality and gas usage.

2018 Cadillac XT4 Redesign

The data obtained from Cadillac Leader Johan de Nysschen has it the 2018 Cadillac XT4 compact crossover is upcoming from the lineup of the types. It is going to be coming immediately after the XT5 nonetheless with actually enhanced qualities that will make it better than the predecessors. The safety, enjoyment, efficiency and standard consumer working experience are the things deemed before the production of this vehicle which caused it to be the top amongst other brand names of the very same class.

It is likely to spot huge car tires which will be mated together with the dark tone. The tires may be safer and source ample fullness for that car. The general excess fat of your vehicle will be reduced and so will the length of the car. It is going to be lowered compared to the other preceding versions. The back part of the Cadillac XT4 2018 is going to be developed to make it beautiful, and the entry may also be decorated with highly efficient Led top lighting fixtures. There is likewise fog light fixtures which will be installed with chrome to provide greater experience even traveling a car in wet varying weather conditions. The back bumper is also enhanced and is just a little more impressive and lively. The generate shall likewise be able to take pleasure from good vision when reversing the car as a result of smart digital camera models that may give a crystal-clear perspective on encircling. The camera is also meant to minimize the likelihood of mishaps while keeping the travelers and the car operator on study course when traveling.

The interior will speak volume of the 2018 Cadillac XT4; it will have chairs that are developed from large-stop contemporary technological innovation and fabric. The substance will be effectiveness against scuff and any cautious managing of vacationers. All of the seats will likely be fixed with safety bands for simple protection in occurrences. The accessories from the car will be elevated, and you are prone to get on the web connection like Common serial bus dock, Wireless Bluetooth, and wi-fi romantic relationship to aid in the navigation. The travel can also take advantage of the food selection to get spots while traveling. The atmosphere conditioning models from the 2018 XT4 may help in regulating conditions and creating particular the car remains as warm as feasible for that travelers. It is going to have wi-fi speakers and HI-FI stereo system program solutions which will still help you stay curious when you are traveling. The dash panel is going to be an update from previous cars and may also be accompanied by unusual Ann color to improve the appeal from the 2018 Cadillac XT4 further. You may even have sufficient lower body and mind region equally from your back seats and entrance aspect. The freight place will probably be a small larger and correctly organized to fit your fill.

2018 Cadillac XT4 Specs

With regards to energy within the hood on this excellent and remarkably developed vehicle, it is anticipated to be an expensive engine solution. Depending on gossips, the 2018 Cadillac XT4 it is meant to provide you a 2.-liter turbocharged engine which at present powers the 2016 Cadillac ATS. The electricity manufacturing of this engine is 272 horsepower and improved torque. Also, it is expected that it vehicle will include a 3.-liter LGW dual-turbo V6 engine which can generate boosted features and incredible functionality. The electricity effectiveness should be increased with the decline in the entire physique extra weight. But, because the right engine decision that will come with this small SUV is never to know one particular are not able to imagine the electricity economic system. When it comes to combating suppliers, there are several vehicles forecasted to remain in shut rivalry together with the Cadillac XT4. Some of the significant rivals to this particular car include Audi Q3, BMW X1, and the Mercedes-Benz GLA-Institution.

2018 Cadillac XT4 Release Date and Price

There is no distinct price set for the 2018 Cadillac XT4 but, it is designed to collection from 30,000 dollars to 40,000  $. Nonetheless, that price may change depending on the designer’s option and the marketplace during those times. It is rumored it can success the marketplace within the middle-calendar year of 2018. It is an excellent car to anticipate; in case you are into vehicles, then you will be watchful to never miss out on it.

2018 Cadillac XT4 Redesign and Release Date 2018 Cadillac XT4 Redesign and Release Date - The 2018 Cadillac XT4 is emerging with security measures, cozy chairs, and technological innovation that will see the car be a quick obtain in the market.

[ds4design]

Revealing the Future: Faraday debuts its FF91

reader comments

Faraday's FF91 design is somewhat derivative, echoing the Jaguar F-Pace and evoking a latter-day Saab SUV, had the company not died before designing their own proper one.

Jim Resnick

Front detail is full of lit "F" letters, feeling a bit like a grille, which, of course, it isn’t.

Jim Resnick

The D pillar shows a strong hint of Saabness. The busy rear end suffers from too much sculpting.

Jim Resnick

We're not entirely sure how NHTSA will react to a single wraparound light at the front.

Jim Resnick

Propulsion engineering VP Peter Savagian talks batteries, power, but not suppliers.

Jim Resnick

Windows between wheel spokes close up at highway speed, netting a small aero benefit.

Front motor sits where a differential would. Note long, beefy Honda-like gooseneck uprights.

Jim Resnick

Rear of the chassis shows the servo for rear steering. Large rear motor unit is perched between the wheels.

Jim Resnick

Financially beleaguered and lacking two top executives—who left just before the end of the year—Faraday Future unveiled its first actual electric car at the 2017 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Tuesday night. Calling it "a new species" that "reformats the future," the FF91 ("nine-one") has a name which will confuse rather than clarify, but the critical numbers are impressive.

Faraday claims the FF91 will have the biggest electric drive system at 130kW of energy (using cells provided by LG Chem but packaged by Faraday). The greatest range, at a minimum of 378 miles using the EPA's protocol (700km on the EU cycle) before needing a charge. And a power output of 783kW (equivalent to 1,050hp). Charging is important to Faraday, too, and an open charging strategy across networks works at 1.5, 10, and 15kW power levels, though the fastest DC charging will operate over 200kW.

"This is the greatest energy density, the most compact and most potent system in the world," said Faraday's propulsion engineering VP, Peter Savagian. "We have 20 percent more battery, motor and more useful torque than anyone else." Clearly, all of this puts the cart before the horse a bit, because the FF91 is not yet on sale, is not yet in its final phase of R&D, and won't hit the market until sometime in 2018 at the earliest.

Getting all that power to the ground requires a bunch of traction, so the FF91 has optional all-wheel-drive through multiple motors, yielding torque vectoring at the rear. There's also rear-wheel steering. Savagian also told us the stability and traction control systems operate at a far higher resolution than other systems, netting much better cornering stability and acceleration at the limit of traction, the latter ringing a supercar bell with 0-60 mph reached in an official (even though it's not in production yet) 2.44 seconds, with a best-ever figure of 2.39 seconds. That is seriously quick and far quicker than anything in the SUV class with which the FF91 will compete—even the Tesla Model X P100D.

The FF91 platform will be a scalable chassis, able to meet a variety of size and duty needs across segments, a claimed innovation. Y'know, like the Volkswagen MQB platform which yields everything from the Golf, Jetta, Tiguan, and the next-generation Passat to Audi's A1, A3, Q3, and TT.

"We will always challenge the limits of performance," Savagian said. But is outright performance the tipping point for people interested in a pure electric luxury SUV like the FF91? Hasn't most of the research proven environmental, emissions, and fossil fuel use proven to be the elephant in consumer's heads?

"Form follows multi-function," stated Faraday's head of design, Richard Kim. Some cars like the Toyota Prius Prime are slipperier in drag, but one big goal was giving the maximum amount of space inside (151 cubic feet/4,276L), blurring the line between mid- and full-size. Yet, for all the book-rewriting Faraday claims for the FF91 design, it cuts a figure and profile scarily like a Jaguar F-Pace or the proper Saab SUV that the company never lived long enough to build. And parking it within inches of a wall on the passenger side at the reveal event leads one to wonder what might be hiding there.

The FF91 also promises to be a top-tier Internet of Things device. "The FF91 will provide full digital integration, to the extent that you will never even have to think about it," said R&D engineering VP, Nick Sampson.

"We won't innovate in 1-2 percent increments," he added. "Plenty of other companies make those small advances, but disruption is what the world needs. Faraday is not predictable; we will create things that have yet to exist. We're going to reformat the future. Air pollution, accidents and congestion will be obsolete." Brave words from a company that hasn't built a single commercial thing yet.

Autonomous driving is a large part of the FF91's soup and it uses 30 sensors—including a retractable LiDAR system—from around the car to enable a self-parking function where it can hunt around a parking lot, not just take over after you've lined the car up, as production Lexuses, Fords, and plenty of other brands have been selling for years now. But this does raise a question: when did parking become as stressful and impossible as three-layer chess? And shouldn't anyone operating a car have the basic ability to park the thing?

The FF91 will also use an open ecosystem where any app you have on your smartphone, such as one that provides video, will integrate across platforms. Multiple modems and two Wi-Fi antennae, it's claimed, will make the FF91 the "most convenient hotspot on earth."

While the FF91 is due in 2018, for now, anyone interested in the vehicle must register online with a $5,000 deposit to secure a slot. But no actual price has been announced yet. There are also no details about the interior.

Some of Faraday's innovations or breakthroughs fail to meet a basic smell test, though. Other cars can park themselves. Other cars adjust temperatures automatically. Other cars compensate for poor weather conditions. Other cars have Wi-Fi. Other cars have torque vectoring actively working to apportion drive power most effectively to the wheels. And other companies have a track record in the luxury sector.

As ever, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. And the driving.

Listing image by Jim Resnick

[atomicdinosaurdonut]

Automotive Digital Instrument Cluster Market upswing with 20% CAGR between 2017 and 2023

Apart from mobile, the automotive market is another market where new technologies and new innovations keep coming into existence. During the early 20th century, the supply of automobiles was limited while demand was high. Later, with technological advancement, the automobile industry grew, incorporating 99% mechanical moving parts and 1% electrical components like blinkers, headlights, tail lamp, etc. Later electronic components also became a part of automobiles, resulting in enhanced and improved functionality but a complex system. To reduce complexity, automakers started using minicomputers/microprocessors. Their objective was to make automobile interface more reliable, fast working and independent of the car functioning. However, minicomputers required a proper and simple, yet efficient display mechanism. Necessity is the mother of invention. Hence, this leads to the invention of electronic display or the digital display cluster in the automobile which is a digital panel that shows a set of parameters like the vehicle speed, the engine rpm, the fuel capacity and the utilized fuel from the fuel tank. This penal provides the driver, precise information about the vehicle functionality related parameters in a way that is easy on the eye.

Market Research Future (MRFR) has published a research report about the global automotive digital instrument cluster market that estimates the upswing in this market with a 20% CAGR between 2017 and 2023. This report comprises of not only extensive primary research but also the detailed analysis of qualitative as well as quantitative aspects by various industry experts, key opinion leaders to gain the deeper insight of the market and industry performance. It analyzes the current market scenario, with historical and projected market size in terms of value and volume, macroeconomic and governing factors, and technological advancement, in the market. The report profiles the key players in the industry, observing their business strategies. According to this report, the factors responsible for the growth of the automotive digital instrument cluster market include the easily readable and comprehensible digital display panel, confused and fatigued drivers failing to comprehend the readings shown on the analog systems, and the preference for digital panels among vehicle service personnel due to the precise and easy to read information display that aids the diagnostic and vehicle repair. Economies of scale, with respect to manufacturing and maintenance of these digital systems, while the bulk is producing the thousands of cars, also adds to the market growth.

Get a FREE Report Sample -  https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/sample_request/5710

 The global automotive digital instrument cluster market has been segmented into display size, display type, type of fuel used, and lastly region. On the basis of display size, this market has been segmented into 5-8 inches, 9-11 inches and above 12 inches. By display type, the market has been segmented into liquid crystal display (LCD), an organic light-emitting diode (OLED), and Thin-film-transistor liquid-crystal display (TFT-LCD). LCD is a form of the visual display where a layer of a liquid crystal is sandwiched between two transparent electrodes. OLED is a light-emitting diode (LED) whose emissive electroluminescent layer features a film of organic compound that emits light via electric current. TFT-LCD is a variant of an LCD that uses TFT technology in order to improve image qualities.

On the basis of the type of fuel used, the market has been segmented into battery electric vehicle (BEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), Diesel and

Petrol. BEV is a type of electric vehicle (EV) that uses chemical energy stored in rechargeable battery packs. HEV combines a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) system with an electric propulsion system (hybrid vehicle drivetrain). According to this report, all five types are expected to witness an upward trend in shifting to the digital cluster system. This is possible due to the simplicity and user-friendly design of the digital instrument cluster system.

The regional segmentation of the global automotive digital instrument cluster market has been segmented into North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Rest of the World (RoW). North America has witnessed a consistent rise in the number of automobiles plying on the road and this is expected to continue during the forecast period. Biggest markets in this region are the United States of America (USA) and Canada. Due to mediocre public transport system in North America, customers prefer personal vehicles for carrying out their daily activities. The digital instrument cluster provides greater control over the vehicle. It also offers better visibility of all the possible vehicle parameters, which is beneficial to customers during long-distance journeys.

Due to many key players of this market being based in Europe and large population, the market for automotive digital instrument cluster is big here also. In Europe, high-end cars have always been prevalent, because they are better complimented with high tech digital instrument cluster systems. In Europe, the biggest markets for the automotive digital instrument cluster are France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom (UK). Due to Japan, the home of many advanced cars, the Asia Pacific automotive market has always had a strong global presence. Japanese cars support advanced digital instrument cluster, and their sales are very good in India and China. Apart from China, India, and Japan, the market for automotive digital instrument cluster is rising in remaining Asia Pacific countries too.

Key Players

The key players in global automotive digital instrument cluster market include Alpine Electronics, Inc.(Japan), Continental AG (Germany), Delphi Technologies (UK), Denso Corporation (Japan), IAC Group (Luxembourg), ID4Motion (Netherlands), Luxoft (Switzerland), Magneti Marelli S.p.A. (Italy), Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (Japan), Nippon Seiki Company Ltd. (Japan), Nvidia Corporation (USA), Panasonic (Japan), Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), Sharp Corporation (Japan), Visteon Corporation (USA), and Yazaki Corporation (Japan).

Latest Industry News

·         Byton’s first production vehicles will feature technology from BlackBerry that would introduce unique digital instrument clusters in their cars. The new technology includes BlackBerry’s Hypervisor 2.0 software and QNX SDP 7.0 real-time operating system. BlackBerry was chosen as a supplier for its ability to partition and isolate safety-critical and non-critical systems. 4 JUL 2018

·         Audi has done away with analog instruments. In the new Audi Q3, even the standard specification on the base model includes a digital instrument cluster with a 10,25-inch screen diagonal. And with the top-of-the-line Man-Machine-Interface (MMI) navigation plus system specified, the displays appear in the brand’s so-called “virtual cockpit” arrangement. 25 JUL 2018

 Get a FREE Report Sample -  https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/sample_request/5710

 Key Questions Addressed by the Report

What was the historic market size?

Which segmentation (Product/     Capacity) is driving market?

What will be the growth rate?

How are the key players in this     market?

What are the strategies adopted by     key players?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 2 SCOPE OF THE REPORT

2.1 MARKET DEFINITION

2.2 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

2.2.1 DEFINITION

2.2.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

2.2.3 ASSUMPTIONS

2.2.4 LIMITATIONS

2.3 RESEARCH PROCESS

2.3.1 PRIMARY RESEARCH

2.3.2 SECONDARY RESEARCH

2.4 MARKET SIZE ESTIMATION

2.5 FORECAST MODEL

3 MARKET LANDSCAPE

3.1.1 THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS

3.1.2 BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS

3.1.3 THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES

3.1.4 SEGMENT RIVALRY

3.1.5 BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS

3.2 VALUE CHAIN/SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSIS

4 MARKET DYNAMICS

4.1 INTRODUCTION

4.2 MARKET DRIVERS

4.3 MARKET RESTRAINTS

4.4 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES

4.5 MARKET TRENDS

About Market Research Future:

At Market Research Future (MRFR), we enable our customers to unravel the complexity of various industries through our Cooked Research Report (CRR), Half-Cooked Research Reports (HCRR), Raw Research Reports (3R), Continuous-Feed Research (CFR), and Market Research & Consulting Edibles.

MRFR team have supreme objective to provide the optimum quality market research and intelligence services to our clients. Our market research studies by products, services, technologies, applications, end users, and market players for global, regional, and country level market segments, enable our clients to see more, know more, and do more, which help to answer all their most important questions.

Media Contact Company Name: Market Research Future Contact Person: Abhishek Sawant Email: Send Email Phone: +1 646 845 9312 Address:Market Research Future Office No. 528, Amanora Chambers Magarpatta Road, Hadapsar City: Pune State: Maharashtra Country: India Website: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com

 Browse Complete Report - https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/automotive-digital-instrument-cluster-market-5710

[hostingnewsfeed]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

[smartwebhostingblog]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

[awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

[lovelyfantasticfart]

2018 Volvo Xc90 Energy System Service Urgent

The entrance observe of the 2013 BMW X5 is 5 ft. The rear observe of the 2004 Audi TT is 4 ft. It鈥檚 not cheap, however neither are similarly powered rivals from BMW, Audi and Land Rover. Leather seats are commonplace, along with automatic local weather control, a power tailgate, the Multi-Media Interface (MMI) system, 18-inch alloy wheels, cruise management, and keyless entry. XC90 V8 Alternator Replacement - On miles, I got a red and a "Power SYSTEM SERVICE Pressing" message within the message middle, the Volvo B8444S which is just used within the Volvo S80, XC90, and Noble M600. Used VOLVO XC90 on the market - Browse for used VOLVO XC90 on the market on Auto Trader, South Africa's largest supplier for used VOLVO XC90 vehicles. Every part that your Volvo XC60 already delivers: safety, reliability, attentive particulars and thoughtful luxurious. See every thing this luxury SUV has to offer..The volvo xc90 is one of the best-promoting and most critically effectively-acquired fashions from the nbsp , car assessment by High S.d.XC Cl.ic.

With photos and data from Fourtitude, we see an up to date S8 that may almost definitely debut in Frankfurt next month sporting some refined styling touches inside and out as well. What Porsche has branched out. Can you use parts from a audi to fix a porsche? Create your personal set of Porsche Cayenne floor mats by combining your favourite logo along with your favourite floor mat coloration. The corporate has a mobility program which ensures the safety of disabled drivers of their automobiles. 2006 Volvo S60 2.5l Turbo oil change . 4,344 pounds (Turbo). These aren't exactly in 911 territory, but they're respectable within the section. The sedan鈥檚 gross vehicle weight ranges from 4,971 to 5,401 pounds, while the Gran Turismo鈥檚 ranges from 5,seven-hundred to 6,020 pounds. They account for 12 % of the load of the new A4's naked bodyshell without doors, lids and home windows. I am wanting a buying a 2000 Volvo S80 from an area automobile vendor and have it for a few days for a take a look at driv. Until you have got addressed all the trouble codes, the sunshine will stay on.

I do get some occasional very quick dropouts in sound in the wireless mode if I have my I-pod in my pants pockets but have had no downside if I keep it in a top pocket. Sound high quality clever, it's ok. Purchase 2012 volvo vnl64t630, 2006 volvo f7, 1990 volvo n12, 2008 volvo vnl64t300, 2007 volvo vnl64t300, 2005 volvo vnl64t420, 2011 volvo vnl64t630, 2012 volvo vnl64t670 .Every Battery for . Subsequent is the T6 and its turbo- and supercharged version of that engine (Volvo calls it twin-charging), which makes a extra impressive 316 hp and 295 lb-ft. You can learn extra about find out how to get free service tickets and totally different topics at his blog, Odalis Knows! Simply as significant as what the driver can draw from the Q7 is what the automobile can do by itself. The automated opening characteristic could be very convenient if you happen to strategy the automobile loaded down with buying luggage.

A six-velocity manual remains customary, and a new six-speed automated is a no-value option, replacing the previous 5-pace automatic. 1961 winner, Phil Hill remains the one American-born winner of the System One Championship. 40.000. And that is not for a particular challenge, but a regular one. Supercharged fashions features an "S" badge to know the unit you might be shopping for. Hemp and cannabis are two common titles for the cannabis flower. Frankly, are you essential about your web site and are you treating it as an enterprise? In line with the 2013 Ford Edge Owner Guide : Front wheel drive ( 18.Three U.S. 62,000) has a 261-horsepower six-cylinder turbodiesel engine and all-wheel drive. The Q3 features the 200 horsepower, turbo-charged 2.Zero Liter 4-cylinder engine. Get to the foundation of their suggestions. The 2011 Audi Q5 has 29.1 cu.ft. 9. Service Historical past. Last serviced at 50,777 in Little Rock, AR on 04/18/15 Oil and filter changed.

from Blogger https://ift.tt/3f3GCx9

[hostingnewsfeed]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

New Post has been published on http://nahlahussain.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/

Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019

March 29, 2019

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)

I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…

…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:

Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:

Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.

Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.

Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business

Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.

Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).

Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…

In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.

What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.

In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…

…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:

Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.

Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!

How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:

Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.

But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?

I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…

Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.

Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021

Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019

Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan

The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric

New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019

Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019

Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000

239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000

Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000

Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV

New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles

XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou

BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps

Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory

France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”

Elsewhere among our short positions…

We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…

…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.

Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.

When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.

We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:

And now for the fund’s long positions…

We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.

We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.

We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).

Thanks and regards,

Mark Spiegel

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.