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cupidmarwani-archive · 5 years

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The Rehabilitation of Ava Bekker (1/12)

Summary: Ava Bekker panicked, and now that Connor is dead, she has to start over.

Warnings: PTSD, Flashbacks, Smoking, ETC

Ava panicked.

There was too much that happened, and she had just wanted to be loved. It was that simple. She wanted someone to hold her, and tell her she was good, and make her feel like she was loved. Connor had been the easy choice, the one standing beside her at every turn, smiling at her. He told her that her surgeries were perfect. She had wanted him to stay, wanted him to be everything to her and vice versa. Everything she did, Ava did out of love.

Except for that last part, which was done out of panic. She asked him for an hour to get to the airport and he said no. He was blocking the exit. And Ava didn’t know what could possibly come next for her, so she did the only thing that came to mind and put the scalpel in her hand to use.

There was a lot of blood. On her. On the floor. Mostly on Connor. She ran for it then, and made it all the way home. She gave herself five minutes to wash the blood. Ten to pack and get the cash she saved under her bed in case of emergency because, really, once she killed Connor’s father, she knew deep down that she’d need an escape plan.

She took a cab to the airport, bought eight tickets with her spare cash, and grabbed the one no one would ever think to see her on. Sicily, Paris, Cairo, Mexico City. Albany, Boise, San Antonio, Minneapolis. Enough places that no one would know where to look, and the plane she got onto was headed straight to the midwest. Minneapolis is a big enough city to get lost in, and an easy starting point to get to the middle of nowhere.

Now she’s here, on an ugly blue seat that’s rough against her legs, squished between a matronly woman knitting with knobbly brown yarn and a man that smells like fish and has decided that her leg room is his. To say the least, it’s unpleasant. But at least she’s not in cuffs, she thinks. Connor with his arms crossed, that disgusted look on his face, watching her dragged away. That would be the worst part.

It hasn’t hit her yet, what she’s done. After showering, her body is clean, for the most part, and she even clipped her nails to get rid of the caked red beneath them. She can see, in her mind’s eye, how he collapsed with his hand on his neck, blood splattering out of him and hitting her hands, her scrubs, her face. She left behind evidence at home, she realizes. But it’s not home anymore, and it doesn’t matter because no one will be able to find her after this. She’s planning on disappearing.

Hi, she thinks to herself. My name is Avery Rhodes. I’m twenty eight. I moved from South Africa with my parents when I graduated high school, and then studied art for a few years. I worked at a Denny’s because my art degree was worthless. Nothing worked out, so I came out here to try farming. No, I’m not married. No, I don’t have a special someone. Yes, I can pay rent, at least for the next few months.

Ava tightens her hands on her backpack. After the plane tickets, she still has about twenty grand in cash. Enough for a used truck and gas to get somewhere far from the city, and then start new as a farmhand for someone with little internet access and a warm bed she can sleep in. She’s being idealistic, if she’s honest with herself, but it’s this imagined plan that keeps her from hyperventilating or bursting into tears. The running away, she’s thought of all this, but killing Connor wasn’t part of the plan. She didn’t want to kill him. She didn’t mean to. It just kind of happened, and now she can’t take it back. And Connor, he’ll never hold her through the night and tell her he loves her again. She’s completely alone, even squished in the middle seat of a cheap airline with her carryon rattling overhead.

Outside the window, which is half-lidded to protect against sun, the city has given way to green pastures and neat bricks divided by crops. The darker ones are soybeans, she thinks, and when she lands she’ll probably find out for sure. There are plenty of big company farms out here with background checks and files and worse, but there are also little family owned ones out there, especially some that might be hiring. She can figure this out, she tells herself. One way or another.

There’s another hour or so left for this flight, and Ava tries to distract herself with the sky magazine. A high powered blender, an inflatable pillow. She stares at the pictures, but doesn’t process them. Her body is humming, almost, with leftover adrenaline from what she’s done. Deep down, at the bottom of her backpack, is a picture she couldn’t leave behind, one she had printed out a few weeks ago. Her and Connor, happy and smiling. His arms were around her and they had kissed just before that picture was taken. She wants to look at that, but it’s too risky right now.

Beside her, the old woman keeps knitting. The fish man keeps hitting her knee with his. The plane keeps roaring and Ava, surrounded by people, feels so completely alone that it burns.

She doesn’t know what to do with herself, in a situation like this. There are no surgeries to prep for or consults to host. Connor isn’t a few steps away for her to talk to and look at and thinking about him hurts right now with the weight of what she’s done. Later it’ll sink in, she thinks, watching her twitchy hands on the edges of the magazine. They’ve always been so steady. They had to be, when she was a surgeon. The slightest twitch, the slightest misstep, and she could commit irreparable harm. Ava prides herself on being steady. But right now, she shakes. Because she was steady when her scalpel found home not too long ago.

When the plane finally begins its descent, she hasn’t been able to still her angry muscles. Everything’s too much, including the buzz of the other passengers quietly talking. She’d like to be in a quiet OR, able to focus because she’s always been good at that. Real things, like standing in line with her luggage while people bump shoulders with her, aren’t as simple or doable.

She might start screaming, as she shuffles past a starbucks-that-isn’t-a-starbucks and wonders where she can buy a prepaid cell like in all the movies. Not the sort of movies Ava usually watches on her own, but one’s she’s seen at Connor’s side and remembered. There’s probably one in the big mall just a cab ride away. The twin cities have one of those, huge. There’s supposedly even a theme park inside. But that’s not what Ava is here for. She steps outside and hails a cab to the mall, a plan clear in her mind.

Step one, get a prepaid phone.

Step two, use it and free coffee shop wifi to look for a job ad.

Step three, buy a used car and go to the job.

It seems simple like that, and helps her keep from stumbling over her own feet when a cab pulls up and asks where she’s headed. She’s got the money to do this and, before she knows it, she’ll be safe and away, and she can reach into her bag and pull out the picture of Connor and her. He’s with her. She’s okay. All she has to do is keep going.

#rhekker #chekker #fic #mine #rab!fic

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is talking a big game about an expanded electoral map with Arizona, Georgia and Texas in play, even though those states haven’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in two decades.

So let’s talk about just how feasible this strategy is. How competitive are those three states at this point? And what’s more, how does this strategy complement — or counteract — Democratic efforts to pick up Midwestern battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, or perennial swing states like Florida?

First up, Arizona. What do we think? Does Biden have a shot there?

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Of the three states we’re looking at, I think it’s pretty clear that Arizona is the most in play — and that Biden may even have the lead there, based on the limited polling we have.

President Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2 points. So it stands to reason that if Biden is up 6 points or so nationally, Arizona is a toss-up, and that’s before we consider other things that may have shifted between 2016 and now.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): I agree, although I have been surprised at the degree to which Arizona seems to have moved to the left since 2016.

sarah: What other evidence do we have that Arizona has moved to the left since 2016?

geoffrey.skelley: Well, unlike in Georgia and Texas, Democrats actually won major statewide contests in Arizona in 2018 — including the state’s marquee Senate race — and election turnout was nearly as high as the 2016 presidential contest, meaning that performance may reflect a broader shift toward the Democrats rather than just a side effect of the midterms’ blue wave.

nrakich: G. Elliott Morris of The Economist had an interesting newsletter item recently that showed how much various states have moved left or right since 2016, based on the 2020 polls so far. Arizona had the starkest movement.

And Geoffrey’s right that, if Arizona were still 6 points redder than the nation and Biden led by 6 points nationally, we’d expect polls of Arizona to show a tied race. But Biden has consistently led in Arizona polls so far.

Biden has the edge in Arizona polling so far

Presidential general election polls of Arizona conducted since March 1

Dates Pollster Biden Trump Margin May 18-22 HighGround 47% 45% D+2 May 10-14 Redfield & Wilton 45 41 D+4 May 9-11 OH Predictive Insights 50 43 D+8 April 7-8 OH Predictive Insights 52 43 D+9 March 10-15 Marist 47 46 D+1 March 11-14 Monmouth 46 43 D+3 March 6-11 Latino Decisions 50 42 D+8 March 3-4 OH Predictive Insights 49 43 D+6 March 2-3 Public Policy Polling 48 47 D+1

Source: Polls

On the other hand, I’m still somewhat skeptical of the idea Arizona has moved that much to the left. Some of the higher-quality polls, like from Marist and Monmouth, do have the race closer to a tie, whereas the polls suggesting Arizona has gotten significantly more Democratic (e.g., by showing Biden up by 8 points) are not coming from gold-standard pollsters.

sarah: One other thing about Arizona that makes me think it might be fertile ground for Democrats in 2020 is that Democratic Senate challenger Mark Kelly seems to have the upper hand against Sen. Martha McSally, and if that race ends up close — or flips blue — that bodes well for Democrats in the long run, as it’s more evidence that Arizona might be becoming more of a blue state.

nrakich: Yeah, Kelly has been a monster fundraiser. He’s taken in more than $31 million since the beginning of last year.

Although I don’t think a down-ballot race is likely to drive turnout for the presidential. If anything, Kelly might run ahead of Biden because of his money and great bio.

geoffrey.skelley: That’s fair, but it’s worth remembering that every Senate seat that was up in 2016 went for the party that carried the state at the presidential level, so the fact a Democrat is polling that well in the Senate contest is probably a decent sign for the party’s chances as a whole.

sarah: For sure. It’s less that a down-ballot race would affect the top of the ticket, but more that Arizona really might go blue in 2020.

It sounds like we agree with the Biden campaign’s assessment that Arizona is in play, so does it make sense for them to campaign there?

Or is there an argument to be made that they should keep an eye on it, but maybe not commit fully?

nrakich: I mean … both?

It’s a spectrum.

I definitely think Biden should spend more time and money in Arizona than in Georgia and Texas. But I still think Arizona is unlikely to be the tipping-point state, and Biden should spend even more time and money in must-win states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

geoffrey.skelley: Oh, they should definitely fully commit. Arizona gives them another possible path to 270 in the Electoral College. Arizona’s worth 11 electoral votes, so it could sub in for, say, Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) if Trump were to narrowly carry the Badger State.

nrakich: Now you have me questioning myself, Geoffrey! *whips out calculator*

Hmmm, Florida and Wisconsin were 3 points to the right of the nation in 2016. Arizona, as discussed, was 6. That’s not a big gap at all; maybe they do converge this year?

geoffrey.skelley: Another thing to keep in mind is that Democrats have been making inroads in the suburbs and dominating urban areas. Maricopa County (Phoenix and its environs) was the most populous county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but Trump only won it narrowly by about 3 points, and in 2018, Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema carried it by 4 points. So Democrats may be hoping for a repeat in 2020. Win Maricopa, win Arizona.

sarah: OK, it sounds like focusing on Arizona is smart for the Biden campaign, but maybe we’re a bit more skeptical of Georgia and Texas, the other two states the campaign has included in its “expanded” electoral map?

nrakich: Yeah. Georgia was 7 points to the right of the nation in 2016, and Texas was 11 points to the right. Given long-term trends, they have both probably moved a little to the left, but they have further to go than Arizona.

That said, Biden may well win those states — take a look at the polling there:

Georgia polls are extremely close

Presidential general election polls of Georgia conducted since March 1

Dates Pollster Biden Trump Margin May 16-18 Civiqs 48% 47% D+1 May 11-13 BK Strategies 46 48 R+2 May 4-7 Public Opinion Strategies 47 46 D+1 April 25-27 Cygnal 44 45 R+1 March 31-April 1 Battleground Connect 46 48 R+2

Source: Polls

Can Biden shock Trump in Texas?

Presidential general election polls of Texas conducted since March 1

Dates Pollster Biden Trump Margin May 8-10 Emerson College 48% 52% R+3 April 27-28 Public Policy Polling 47 46 D+1 April 18-27 University of Texas at Tyler 43 43 EVEN April 10-19 YouGov 44 49 R+5

Source: Polls

But if he does, he will probably already have clinched the Electoral College in the Midwest, Arizona or Florida.

geoffrey.skelley: Georgia is interesting. On the one hand, Biden could target the increasingly Democratic suburbs of Atlanta. On the other hand, it’s one of the most inelastic states in the country — meaning voters there are among the most likely to stick with their usual party regardless of which way the rest of the country swings — in part because its white voters remain predominantly Republican and its large black population is heavily Democratic, and there just isn’t a ton of movement there.

Additionally, if Democrats couldn’t carry Georgia in 2018 when the electoral environment was very pro-Democratic, that makes me skeptical they can win it in a presidential year, when partisan conditions could be more balanced. That said, if Biden is winning by 6 or 7 points nationally, that might be enough to put Georgia in his column, as Trump only carried it by 5 points in 2016. But as Nathaniel was saying earlier, that’s not a situation where Georgia is an integral part of Biden winning 270 electoral votes. It’s gravy at that point, though maybe it helps Democrats in the two Senate contests there.

nrakich: Yeah, Georgia is definitely inelastic. But on the other hand, Georgia has inched leftward (relative to the nation as a whole) in the last three presidential elections. And I think there is room for more suburban whites to move toward Democrats, not only in Georgia but also in Texas and Arizona.

sarah: That’s a good point, and I think a real question determining whether Georgia and Texas will be competitive is just how much the trends of 2018 — namely, suburban white voters moving to the Democratic Party — hold true.

This is an extreme hypothetical, but earlier this year, Nathaniel looked at what would happen if a state’s presidential vote was based strictly on how rural or urban the state is, and he found that Georgia would remain in the R column, but both Arizona and Texas would swing blue:

What if the urban-rural divide dictated the 2020 election?

The results of a hypothetical presidential election if a state’s urbanization were the only factor, based on the relationship between FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index and 2016 presidential election results

State Result State Result Alabama R+16.0 Montana R+30.8 Alaska R+27.3 Nebraska R+8.2 Arizona D+6.1 Nevada D+12.3 Arkansas R+20.5 New Hampshire R+11.9 California D+17.7 New Jersey D+18.3 Colorado D+4.2 New Mexico R+12.2 Connecticut D+7.6 New York D+22.5 Delaware D+2.3 North Carolina R+6.6 Florida D+8.3 North Dakota R+23.2 Georgia R+3.6 Ohio D+0.6 Hawaii D+3.3 Oklahoma R+11.6 Idaho R+16.1 Oregon R+1.5 Illinois D+10.3 Pennsylvania D+4.1 Indiana R+5.5 Rhode Island D+11.6 Iowa R+16.1 South Carolina R+9.4 Kansas R+9.3 South Dakota R+27.4 Kentucky R+13.6 Tennessee R+8.3 Louisiana R+8.6 Texas D+4.5 Maine R+23.4 Utah D+1.7 Maryland D+11.5 Vermont R+25.9 Massachusetts D+13.2 Virginia D+1.0 Michigan R+0.3 Washington D+3.8 Minnesota R+4.9 West Virginia R+22.4 Mississippi R+25.1 Wisconsin R+8.3 Missouri R+8.2 Wyoming R+33.6

Source: American Community Survey

What do we make of this? Might Texas actually turn blue before Georgia?

nrakich: We have a tendency to think about elections through the lens of the decisive voters in the previous election, which for 2018 was suburbanites. But as I showed in that urbanization article, Georgia does have a lot of rural voters too, and there is still room for them to move even more toward Trump. So, actually, maybe those two trends will cancel each other out.

geoffrey.skelley: OK, but Georgia was still notably closer to going for Clinton than Texas — Trump won Georgia by 5 points and Texas by 9 points, which is a fairly sizable difference. And while Georgia may be more inelastic than Texas, Texas is not that elastic. Our 2018 elasticity score for Texas was 1.03 — not that far above the baseline of 1 — while Georgia’s was 0.90.

Texas is changing, but Barack Obama lost it by 12 points in 2008, which was a really good environment overall for Democrats.

nrakich: Yeah, there’s just too far for it to go.

geoffrey.skelley: As is often the case with questions about when Texas could go blue, it depends on how fast the political environment changes, but it still probably won’t happen until sometime after 2020, given what we know currently.

sarah: People seem to agree that the Biden campaign shouldn’t invest too much in Georgia and Texas if it comes at the expense of other battleground states in the Midwest or Florida. Is that fair?

nrakich: I think there’s a case for keeping your options open in Georgia. But the Biden campaign would be foolish to invest significantly in Texas. If Texas votes Democratic, Biden will already have won virtually every other swing state and, therefore, the election. It’s simply not a part of his path to 270 electoral votes — more like a part of his path to 400.

Also, Texas is an extremely expensive state in which to campaign, so it just wouldn’t be an efficient use of his money.

geoffrey.skelley: If Trump really is doing a lot worse among older voters than in 2016, it would be foolish for Biden to abandon Florida, which has one of the oldest populations in the country.

I could see reasons for Democrats to worry about Florida being a mirage after they failed to win the gubernatorial and Senate races there in 2018, but it’s just been too close in recent presidential elections to actually give up on it. Trump only won it by 1 point in 2016!

nrakich: Oh, I have strong feelings about Florida.

sarah:

nrakich: Florida is definitely still a swing state; it’s not as inelastic as the 2018 results implied. The Democratic nominees for governor and senator, Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson, still outperformed Hillary Clinton in most counties; they just underperformed Clinton in a few key areas, especially Miami-Dade County. (This article by Florida Democratic consultant Matthew Isbell does a great job showing that.)

The reason for this is probably that their Republican opponents, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott, did a lot better among Hispanic voters than Trump did. According to exit polls, Trump got 35 percent of the Latino vote in Florida in 2016, while DeSantis got 44 percent and Scott got 45 percent. In 2020, I don’t think Trump will be able to match DeSantis’s and Scott’s numbers.

So if Biden can pair Clinton’s performance among Hispanic Floridians with Nelson’s and Gillum’s among other voters, he can absolutely win Florida.

geoffrey.skelley: We’ve talked a lot about how Biden might be able to expand his electoral map, but he can’t afford to give up on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016, they were collectively decided by 78,000 votes, and who wins them in 2020 will likely be consequential as well.

The bigger questions in the Midwest and Rust Belt are probably whether to invest in Iowa and Ohio, which Trump carried by about 9 and 8 points, respectively. Those two states might be harder for Democrats to win back considering how they swung hard toward the GOP in 2016 after backing Obama in 2012.

That said, Iowa does have some history of being pretty swingy. It’s also cheaper to advertise in Iowa than Ohio, and if we’re talking down-ballot races, there is more at stake there, too. Potentially four competitive House races and a Senate seat in Iowa, whereas Ohio has no Senate race and is likely to have only one or two close House races.

nrakich: Yeah, if Biden wants to be an effective president, he’ll need a Democratic Senate. IMO, that means he should give extra credit to Georgia and Iowa when deciding where to allocate his resources.

sarah: The balancing act that the Biden campaign will inevitably have to engage in isn’t entirely clear to me yet. How much will they actually invest in states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas versus doubling down on states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?

Much of this will inevitably boil down to what the tipping-point state is in 2020, but one thing that’s hard to figure out is how much of the map already realigned in 2016. Put another way, does Biden have his eyes on states like Arizona because winning states like Wisconsin back will be difficult?

nrakich: But I think that’s the needle we need to thread: Arizona might be moving in one direction and Wisconsin in the other, but even in the “realigned” (really more “recalibrated”) 2016 map, Arizona was redder than Wisconsin.

geoffrey.skelley: It’s curious because some of this comes down to the national environment. Maybe Wisconsin is a point or two redder than it was in 2016, but if Biden wins by 4 or 5 points nationally, maybe that’s enough to carry it even if Wisconsin is continuing to move toward the GOP.

But how exactly that plays out in each state is hard to say.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Sarah Frostenson #Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Sk

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patriotsnet · 3 years

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Why Are Republicans Red And Democrats Blue

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/why-are-republicans-red-and-democrats-blue/

Why Are Republicans Red And Democrats Blue

The History Of Party Colors In The United States

Why Red for Republicans and Blue for Democrats? | America 101

Prior;to the United States presidential election of 2000, which party was Red and which was Blue was largely a matter of which color a news outlet chose.;On the October 30, 2000, episode of the Today show, Tim Russert coined the terms red state and blue state.

As far back as the 1888 election blue was used to represent the northern Union states and red the south, but this wasnt consistent throughout time . In the 70s and 80s the major networks starting using lighted maps to illustrate election results. Democrats were often coded blue and Republicans red, but it wasnt consistent. This inconsistent coloring continued throughout the Clinton years and up to the Gore Vs. Bush. This can all be varied by old videos and articles.

Democrats And Republicans: Blue And Red Or Red And Blue

Lycaon pictus said:If you mean “conservative” in the sense of “maintaining as much of the status quo as humanly possibly” there’s a good case that they still are. The Democrats are the ones trying to keep the social safety net intact, while Republicans want to replace it with uh I’ll have to get back to you on that.

Nerdlinger said:The age-old question: On US electoral maps, should the Democrats be blue and the Republicans red, as is recent American practice, or should the Democrats be red and Republicans blue to better reflect the colors more associated with their ideologies on an international level?

ColeMercury

ColeMercury said:Democrats blue, Republicans red. That’s the convention that’s been developed, so there’s no point in flipping it around just because. And if your justification is ideology, the Democrats aren’t a socialist or social-democratic party so they shouldn’t be coloured red anyway.

zoomar

zoomar said:Wow, with my vote it’s exactly 50-50.I don’t know how the current color coding got started, but it makes no sense. Red is almost universally associated with the left. Blue has a less clear ideological meaning, but if you use blue, it should by default refer to conservatives in the US. I vote for Red=Democrats, Blue=Republican.

19942010

While Many Conservative Parties Around The World Are Associated With Blue In Us Elections The Republicans Are Denoted By Red And The Convention Is A Relatively Recent Development

For those who dont follow US politics closely, aspects of the vote might seem confusing from how the electoral college and popular vote work to which swing states can .

The uninitiated might also be unfamiliar with the maps and graphics on TV showing states turn red and blue as the results are announced heres how the colours work.

Recommended Reading: How Many Republicans In California

Red States And Blue States

Since around the 2000 United States presidential election, red states and blue states have referred to states of the United States whose voters predominantly choose either the Republican Party or Democratic Party presidential and senatorial candidates. Since then, the use of the term has been expanded to differentiate between states being perceived as liberal and those perceived as conservative. Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties’ geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.

All states contain both liberal and conservative voters and only appear blue or red on the electoral map because of the winner-take-all system used by most states in the Electoral College. However, the perception of some states as “blue” and some as “red” was reinforced by a degree of partisan stability from election to electionfrom the 2000 election to the 2004 election, only three states changed “color” and as of 2020, fully 35 out of 50 states have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000.

The Psychology Of Tie Colors In The Race For President

Have you ever asked yourself the question why we only see red and blue ties on presidential candidates as of recently? Some might argue that candidates will choose those ties that best reflects their partys identify, meaning red ties for Republican Romney, and blue ties for Democrat President Obama, but this is only partially true.

Take Tuesdays Presidential debate for instance. Romney wore a bright blue and white striped tie while Obama opted for a burgundy-red piece, a change that I was very happy to see. Pre-debate I was actually hoping that Obama would be wearing a red tie a color that is synonymous with power, confidence, and excitement all things Obama lacked in the first debate.

Obama is Taking Charge, Wearing a Burgundy-Red Tie

I am now making the argument that Obamas red tie helped him step up his game during the last debate. Not only did the tie grabbed the audiences attention, but I strongly belief that it gave President Obama a boost of confidence after taking a look in the mirror.

The psychology & emotional effects of colors is definitely nothing new. In fact, psychologists have been researching the meaning of colors for decades, if not centuries, and evidence does indeed prove that certain colors do evoke certain emotional responses in people. This is nothing new to presidential candidates who pay attention to what colors to pick out for a public appearance.

Other Suggested Articles:

Recommended Reading: How Many Republicans Are In The House 2018?

Its A Tie: Presidential Debates As Accessory To Democracy

BETHESDA, MD OCTOBER 04: In this handout provided by The White House, President Donald Trump participates in a phone call with Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley in his conference room at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on October 4, 2020 in Bethesda, Maryland. Chief of Staff Mark Meadows is also present in the room on the call.

He did not wear a tie. Thus, the media rang the alarm. Reuters, BBC, Newsweek and other outlets singled out President Trumps tie-lessness as part of the news coverage following his COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization. In pop culture, the sight of a national leader without a tie is troubling. Think Hugh Grant dancing around Downing Street as Prime Minister in Love Actually or Morgan Freeman announcing the literal end of the world as President Beck in Deep Impact. We are much more aware of subtle political dress codes than we realize. As tensions mount over the upcoming US election, lets take a look at one of its unwavering protagonists through the years. A classic necktie.

TOPSHOT This combination of pictures created on September 29, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump during the first presidential debate with Democratic Presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden at Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio, on September 29, 2020.

Which States Are Considered Red And Which Are Blue

To go along with the colors, the terms red state and blue state were popularized by anchorman Tim Russert during and immediately after the 2000 election. Today, these terms are used to refer to which party a state voted for during a presidential election.;

Generally speaking, the Northeast and the West Coast are considered a collection of blue states as most of them have sided with the Democrats since the early 1990s.

The Southern states have sided with Republicans since the 2000s, while the Midwest tends to be tougher to predict. For example, Illinois and Minnesota are currently considered blue states, while Missouri and Nebraska are red. Hawaii and Alaska have been traditionally considered blue and red respectively as neither has switched parties since the late 1980s .

The Southwest has been split since 2000 with Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado going blue more often than red and Utah and Arizona voting predictably red. Finally, we come to the coveted purple states or swing states,;such as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These states switched colors in recent elections and are often a key focus of electoral campaigning and strategy. Swing states can vary by election year.

Recommended Reading: Are There More Democrats Or Republicans In America

Trending In London: Fashion Rental Energy Healing And Pigmentation

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee John McCain take part in the first debate of the 2008 elections at the University of Mississippi on September 26, 2008 in Oxford, MS. AFP PHOTO / PAUL J. RICHARDS

;The default color scheme for presidential ties is so conservative that it is nearly impossible to imagine something like pistachio, fuchsia or neon-anything ever making the cut. Sometimes, of course, being an outlier can help secure the needed benefit of the doubt. Bob Dole wore a moderate-green tie to his 1996 debate against the incumbent Bill Clinton. Such a choice helped create an overall image that pundits found informed, thoughtful, and elevated. It briefly albeit unsuccessfully buoyed Doles campaign. Hillary Clinton did not wear ties during her runs for the presidency. Still, her accessories were scrutinized by the media with particular focus on , bracelets, and headbands. Alternately, when democratic primary candidate Andrew Yang showed up to a 2019 Democratic Primary debate with no tie at all, his historic bold move turned heads across the political spectrum from Fox News to the New Yorker. Ultimately, it was a minor side note in what cost him the nomination proving that the country is just not ready for a tie-less president.

Why Do We Have Red States And Blue States

Why Democrats Are Blue and Republicans Are Redâand Why Itâs the Opposite Everywhere Else

If youve watched the news as a presidential election heats up, youre probably well aware that political pundits like to use the color red to represent the Republican Party and blue for the Democratic Party. A red state votes Republican in presidential elections and Senate races, while a blue state leans Democratic.

No matter which news program you favor, they all use these same colors to represent the parties. So it would be reasonable to assume these must be the official colors of these two parties and have been used for over a hundred years, right?

Surprisingly no. Republicans havent always been associated with the color red, nor have Democrats affiliated their party with blue. In fact, the whole notion of consistently attaching a particular hue to each political party is a relatively new concept in the US, not emerging as a common distinction until the 2000 presidential election between Democrat and Vice President Al Gore and Republican Texas Governor George W. Bush.

But why red for Republicans? And why does blue stand for Democrats?

Lets break it down.

Also Check: Who Are Republicans For The Rule Of Law

When Its Time To Head Back To The Office And On The Few Days When I Wear A Suit And Tie I Should Retire My Red Ties Right Unless I Want Everyone To Assume I Am A Trump Supporter Is It Possible For Any Man To Wear A Red Tie Now And Not Immediately Call To Mind The Former President Ken Newton Mass

Though the death of the tie is declared regularly especially given the pressures of both the long-term office-casual movement and our current working-from-home reality Guy Trebay, our mens wear critic, maintains that you should not count the accessory out quite yet. As he said, even if were not wearing them much during lockdown, you dont want to give up on an element of the wardrobe thats been around for 400 years.

Ties can, after all, be used to signal your club, your interests, whether you are a jokester, a brainiac or even a clown. Not to mention, as you say, political affiliation.

The question is whether the party dividing line between red and blue that has swept even the necktie into its maw will remain uppermost in everyones minds now that unity is the word of the moment . Given how central red ties were to President Trumps uniform, it is natural to think that we may now have a Pavlovian response to the color. But the fact is, red ties were a wardrobe staple long before Mr. Trump got hold of them.

Its the combination of shade and style that makes the statement of allegiance, not simply one or the other. Thats what you should keep in mind when getting dressed. Then go ahead: Tie one on.

When Red Meant Democratic And Blue Was Republican A Brief History Of Tv Electoral Maps

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Forty years ago this week, TV started telling the story of the presidential election as a battle between red states and blue states.;

When the die-hards and political junkies who stayed up until 3:30 a.m. Eastern time on Nov. 3, 1976, watched NBCs John Chancellor call Mississippi and the election for Jimmy Carter, they saw the win signified on the 14-foot-high molded plastic map of the United States;mounted on a wall behind the anchor.

————For the RecordNov. 8, 3:41 p.m.: The caption for the 1976 photograph of the original NBC electoral map misidentifies Cassie Mackin as Jessica Savitch.————

The state was then lighted up in red the color the network had assigned for the Democratic candidate.

The party colors were eventually reversed. But from that night forward, that;simple piece of stagecraft in Studio 8H at;Rockefeller Center became the visual shorthand in detailing the race for the 270 electoral votes needed for the White House.;

Digital versions of the electoral map have since become a living;tool for on-air analysts ;a way of feeding;election-night suspense as each state turns red or blue. Since 2008, CNNs John King has presented electoral college scenarios on a touch-screen the cable news network called its magic wall.

It is so beautiful I wish that after the election I could take it home, but I dont have a room big enough to hold it. Its enormous and it’s gorgeous.

David Brinkley

Recommended Reading: How Many Republicans Are In The House Of Representatives 2012

Medias Red Vs Blue Usage:

The Presidential election of 2000 saw the Blue vs Red ideology take hold.; Network anchors and pundits relied heavily on coloured maps in order to display how close the race was between George W Bush and Al Gore. This set a precedent with regards to the coverage of presidential; elections and as a result coined the deep rooted Blue vs Red associations and culture we see today. Over time, the use of these coloured maps not only defined the states that vote Democratic or Republican but also formulated a way to describe the cultural values associated with American electoral geography. Red and Blue terminology can be seen everywhere in American life from Modern Party iconography, in the name of consulting groups such as Blue State Digital, coffee brands such as Blue State Coffee and even fast food joints Red State BBQ in the state of Kentucky. In a study carried out by Business Insider, one can clearly see the differences in Blue America as opposed to Red America:

The Latest Key Updates On The 2020 Us Election Results

Who is winning the US election? Live updates on the latest results

However, in the US blue represents the more left-leaning Democrats, while the Republicans denoted by red, as per Donald Trumps Make America Great Again caps.

One might assume that the colours represent a long-standing tradition, but theyre a relatively recent feature of US elections.

According to Professor David Scott Kastan of Yale University, writing inThe Conversation, the systems origins lie in the spread of colour TV in the late 1960s, when colour-coded maps were first used on election TV broadcasts.

The red and blue colouring was a nod to the British system, The Verge reports, but initially there was no permanent colour association for either party.

TV networks changed the map coding from election to election, with Prof Kastan explaining: In Cold War America, networks couldnt consistently identify one party as red the color of communists and, in particular, the Soviet Union without being accused of bias.

Indeed, there were famous US election nights where the current colour scheme was memorably reversed.

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Five Years Ago Obama Was Blasted For Wearing A Tan Suit Now Its Used To Contrast Him With Trump

Ronald Reagan wore tan suits during his presidency. So did Dwight D. Eisenhower, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

But on Aug. 28, 2014, when President Barack Obama showed up for a White House news conference dressed in beige, the light-colored suit became a matter of national import. Rep. Peter T. King fumed that the suit pointed to a lack of seriousness on the presidents part, cable news shows held roundtable discussions, fashion critics and image consultants weighed in, and TV news reporters conducted man-on-the-street interviews to find out what the people of Northeast Ohio thought of the controversial look.

Five years later, however, Tan Suit Gate has taken on a different meaning, coming to symbolize the relative dearth of scandals during the Obama administration. On social media, just about every news item about potential conflicts of interests within the Trump administration and the presidents flouting of norms is met with some variant of Remember when Obama wore a tan suit? In the past week alone, the tan suit comparison has been leveled against President Trumps assertion that he is the chosen one, his demand that U.S. companies leave China, and his desire to hold next years Group of Seven summit at his Florida golf resort just to name a few examples.

If he wants to wear a tan suit, he can wear a tan suit, one woman said. Another asked, Why are we so concerned about the color of a suit?

Dig Deeper: Fashion + Politics

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plusorminuscongress · 4 years

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New story in Politics from Time: Dr. Anthony Fauci and Top Health Experts to Tell House Panel There’s No End in Sight to the Pandemic

(WASHINGTON) — There’s no end in sight to the coronavirus pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci and other top government health experts will tell Congress on Friday.

“While it remains unclear how long the pandemic will last, COVID-19 activity will likely continue for some time,” Fauci, along with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention head Dr. Robert Redfield and Health and Human Services testing czar Adm. Brett Giroir say in prepared testimony for a special House panel investigating the pandemic.

At a time when early progress seems to have been lost and uncertainty clouds the nation’s path forward, Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, is calling on lawmakers — and all other Americans — to go back to public health basics such as social distancing and wearing masks.

The panel, the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, is divided about how to reopen schools and businesses, mirroring divisions among Americans.

A rebound of cases across the South and the West has dashed hopes for a quick return to normal life. Problems with the availability and timeliness of testing continue to be reported. And the race for a vaccine, though progressing rapidly, has yet to deliver a breakthrough.

Fauci’s public message in recent days has been that Americans can’t afford a devil-may-care attitude toward COVID-19 and need to double down on basic measures such as wearing masks in public, keeping their distance from others and avoiding crowds and indoor spaces such as bars. That’s echoed by Redfield and Giroir, though they are far less prominent.

Fauci’s dogged persistence has drawn the ire of some of President Donald Trump’s supporters and prompted a new round of calls for his firing. But the veteran of battles against AIDS and Ebola has stuck to his message, while carefully avoiding open confrontations with the Trump White House.

In an interview with The Associated Press earlier this week, Fauci said he was “disturbed” by the flat-out opposition in parts of the country to wearing masks as a public health protective measure.

“There are certain fundamentals,” he said, “the staples of what you need to do … one is universal wearing of masks.”

Public health experts say masks help prevent an infected person who has yet to develop symptoms from passing the virus to others. For mask wearers, there’s also some evidence that they can offer a degree of protection from an infected person nearby.

Fauci said in his AP interview that he’s concerned because the U.S. has not followed the track of Asian and European nations also hit hard by the coronavirus.

Other countries that shut down their economies knocked back uncontrolled spread and settled into a pattern of relatively few new cases, although they continued to experience local outbreaks.

The U.S. also knocked back the initial spread, but it never got the background level of new cases quite as low. And the resurgence of COVID-19 in the Sunbelt in recent weeks has driven the number of new daily cases back up into the 60,000-70,000 range. It coincided with economic reopening and a return to social gatherings, particularly among younger adults. Growing numbers of emergency room visits, hospitalizations and deaths have followed as grim consequences.

Nearly 4.5 million Americans have been infected since the start of the pandemic, and more than 150,000 have died, according to figures compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Fauci said there’s evidence the surge across the South may be peaking, but upticks in the Midwest are now a concern.

“They’ve really got to jump all over that because if they don’t then you might see the surge we saw in some of the Southern states,” he told the AP.

Though Fauci gets push-back from White House officials, other medical experts in the administration are on the same page when it comes to the public health message.

Giroir, the testing czar, told reporters Thursday: “I think it’s very important to make sure that we all spread the public health message that we can control all the outbreaks occurring right now.”

He said controlling the outbreaks will require people to wear masks, avoid crowded indoor spaces and wash their hands frequently.

By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar and Matthew Perrone on July 31, 2020 at 10:02AM

#Time #politics #PlusOrMinusCongress #±Congress #Indega±#IndegaPlusOrMinus #TimeMag #TimeMagazine

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New Post has been published on https://toldnews.com/world/united-states-of-america/can-a-woman-win-2020-candidates-offer-an-easy-answer-i-have/

Can a Woman Win? 2020 Candidates Offer an Easy Answer: ‘I Have’

CRESTON, Iowa — Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York had a request: Before anyone mocked her claim that she was the Democratic presidential candidate best positioned to take on President Trump, at least listen to the evidence.

Ms. Gillibrand won her first House race in an upstate conservative district that had “more cows than Democrats,” as she likes to say. She ran on Medicaid expansion as early as 2006, long before it had become a litmus test for the progressive flank of the Democratic Party, which often derides her as inauthentic.

In her 2018 Senate re-election campaign, she flipped 18 counties that had voted for Mr. Trump just two years earlier, and in 2012 she received a higher share of the vote in New York than any statewide candidate before or since — better than Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, better than former Senator Hillary Clinton, better than former President Barack Obama.

While many voters don’t know much about Ms. Gillibrand yet, she also sees a set of assumptions about male and females leaders at work.

“The first-blush analysis is inadequate,” Ms. Gillibrand said in an interview. “This is what makes me the best person to take on Trump — electability. Experience. Track record.”

“I’m the most elect ——” she stopped. “I have the type of experience they’re looking for.”

At this early stage of the Democratic presidential primary, much of the discussion among voters has focused on the singular desire of defeating Mr. Trump, and selecting a nominee who’s best suited to that task. But while that line of thinking has largely been associated with well-known veteran male politicians, particularly former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the women running in the historically diverse Democratic field, several of whom have a demonstrated track record of winning over Republican voters, have been telling anyone who will listen that they, too, are equipped to beat the president.

In addition to Ms. Gillibrand, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has drawn on her electoral success in red counties to position herself as a bridge-builder in increasingly polarized times. And Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts — who soundly defeated a popular Republican incumbent in her first election — has focused recently on addressing concerns that she’s simply an “ideas candidate,” combining her rhetoric about economic inequality with a more explicit pitch on her ability to beat Mr. Trump. (A fourth leading female candidate, Senator Kamala Harris of California, has enjoyed most of her success thus far in Democratic strongholds.)

As they now campaign for president, they are encountering some of the same misogyny that Mrs. Clinton faced when she ran in 2016. They are running up against assumptions voters and pundits have about what presidential leadership looks like, battling a presidential archetype where men are the only touchstones.

As a result, they are frequently asked to explain why they believe they have paths to victory, and prove they can win over prized working-class voters in critical states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This has come even as polls have consistently found that numerous Democrats — including multiple women — enjoy an early edge in head-to-head matchups against Mr. Trump.

“We have 45 presidents who have been men. And seeing a woman in that role is still something that we’re not used to,” said Kimberly Peeler-Allen, a co-founder of Higher Heights, a national organization building the political power and leadership of black women.

She noted that the Democratic women running for president had been forced to answer for Mrs. Clinton’s defeat in 2016, and to allay concerns from voters that a woman can win the presidency. The men in the race don’t face such burdens.

She also pointed to last year’s midterm elections, in which more than half of the House districts that flipped from Republicans to Democrats were won by women.

“We have to, as an electorate, change our mind-set on what executive leadership looks like,” Ms. Peeler-Allen said. “Women lead differently. And that’s not a bad thing.”

Ms. Gillibrand has addressed the question head-on. She kicked off her recent “Rural Listening Tour” throughout southwest Iowa with a clear focus on highlighting her ability to win Republican votes. “Secretary Clinton and I, while I admire her, are very different people and we have very different stories,” she said at one stop. “I’m from the upstate part of New York. She’s from the suburbs of Illinois.”

On the campaign trail, Ms. Klobuchar touts the 42 counties Mr. Trump carried that she won during her re-election race last November. She won 51 of the state’s 87 counties in all, and she outperformed the other Democrats running statewide, earning 86,500 more votes than Senator Tina Smith and 76,000 more than Gov. Tim Walz.

She has made her understanding of rural issues and her ability to reach across the aisle central to her campaign pitch, trying to sell voters on what she’s termed “heartland economics.” In Nevada, Iowa, she vowed to protect the state’s farmers, suggesting she could form a coalition that could bridge divides between the agriculture industry and environmentalists.

“When I see those wind turbines out there and think of solar, and how that benefits us more in the middle of the country, you could put together a package that the Midwest would like,” Ms. Klobuchar said, pointing across the street to several turbines spinning in a chilly wind.

“I grew up in the metro area, but just on the border of farm country,” she said. As a child, she would ride her bike to her best friend’s dairy farm. “I was very close to that whole world. That was something that I grew up with and understand.”

In a race defined by early uncertainty, Democratic candidates such as former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., have garnered significant attention and high first-quarter fund-raising totals, outraising all the women in the Democratic field except Ms. Harris, who has relied on the liberal donor circuit in her deep blue home state. But their success has also fueled a backlash, as critics say their rise, in spite of their comparative lack of experience, is indicative of a presidential landscape that prefers male figures.

When asked in a phone interview if she believed her candidacy was being hampered by gendered notions of “electability,” Ms. Warren demurred.

“I can’t talk about everything in this race,” she said. “I can just tell you what I’ve done and what I plan on doing.”

In an interview in Iowa, Ms. Gillibrand specifically alluded to Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. O’Rourke, saying, “I don’t think either of them have won red and purple areas. I have.”

She also added a warning for the Democrats trying to occupy a more moderate lane, as Mr. Biden has since entering the race.

“If your ideas aren’t progressive or bold enough, you will not win the respect of the grass-roots,” Ms. Gillibrand said. “You will not win young people. You will not win black women — all the people who were responsible for electing a Democratic majority this last election cycle in the House of Representatives.”

The themes represent another fault line for a Democratic Party at an existential crossroads. After the surprise election of Mr. Trump, a sizable portion of Democrats began to voice concerns that the party’s embrace of gender and racial diversity had put it at odds with some of the electorate, and that Mr. Trump’s willingness to use racist and sexist political rhetoric had put Democrats at a disadvantage, especially in rural America or among Republican-leaning independents.

“We were not heard in ’16,” said Patty Judge, a former lieutenant governor of Iowa who started an organization called Focus on Rural America. “People did not understand the frustration and the anger that is out there in rural Iowa.”

When asked in surveys, most voters say they could support a woman for president. A recent poll found that 84 percent of Americans said they’re comfortable with a female candidate, more than those who said they were accepting of a candidate who is a Muslim, an evangelical Christian or over the age of 75.

But when pressed on the issue in interviews, Democratic voters in early primary states point to Mrs. Clinton’s Electoral College defeat as a sign that others — their family, friends or large swaths of the country — won’t back a female candidate.

During Ms. Gillibrand’s listening tour, voters who were asked to explain what it meant to be an “electable candidate” were fairly clear. They said Mr. Trump’s presence may require a man to lead the Democratic ticket.

“You’ll always hear ‘there’s no way a woman can win this,’ and they go back to Hillary,” said DeAnne Butler, who attended Ms. Gillibrand’s campaign stop in Clarinda, Iowa. “Even among my female friends.”

Ms. Warren said in a phone interview that she does believe voters sometimes forget about her 2012 Senate victory against Scott Brown, a well-liked Republican incumbent. Ms. Warren became the first woman elected to the Senate in Massachusetts history when she unseated Mr. Brown in a hotly contested race. A Boston Globe poll at the time found Mr. Brown had a higher favorability rating than Ms. Warren and that he was seen as the more “likable” candidate.

In her view, the question of who is best positioned to beat Mr. Trump depends on more than just poll numbers or the ability to flip red districts. It hinges on who can tell a cohesive story and put forth an “affirmative vision,” as she called it, that excites voters and draws contrasts with the current administration.

“The 2020 election is about big issues facing our country: who government works for,” Ms. Warren said. “We must beat Donald Trump, but we must do so much more.”

Ms. Warren, Ms. Gillibrand, Ms. Harris and Ms. Klobuchar can all claim an interesting distinction: They have never lost an election in their political careers. All of the most prominent male Democratic candidates, including Mr. Biden, Mr. Buttigieg, Mr. O’Rourke, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, have lost at least one.

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Couple points here or there, and Iowa State’s playing for the Sweet 16, evidence of just how fickle the NCAA Tournament can be. To search for players who were born on a certain date, for example all players born on December 25, choose the month, day and year with the drop down boxes and then choose the ‘Full Date Search’ option. Like with most big men, Towns and Turner’s college production will depend as much on their guard play as their own development. If you would like to search for all players born on a certain day, for example all players born on December 25th in any year, choose the month and day with the drop down boxes and then choose the ‘Month and Thomas Morstead Youth jersey Day Search’ option. Tickets are available in the following packages: Where can I buy tickets? ANSWER: Terron Armstead Youth jersey Let me answer this by asking you a question: Why would a team that has a running back who was voted to the Pro Bowl in his second NFL season go looking for a player in the first three rounds of the next draft to replace him? Johnson picked up his first pole since July 2016 at New Hampshire, a race in which he led one lap and finished 12th. The mains catered to Nike NFL Jerseys Wholesale most people’s tastes. Should the Titans participate Cheap Jerseys 90 in Super Bowl LIV, the team will conduct a random drawing in Basketball Jerseys For Sale which Season Ticket Members will have an opportunity to purchase Super Bowl tickets. Generally Cheap Jerseys Usa speaking, there’s a lot of noise around batting average, and BABIP represents where most of that noise comes from. Then it comes down to his physicality, as well. He made second team All-Big 10 and was the team’s Most Outstanding Player in 2018. Add to stir-fries or skewer onto Nike NFL Jerseys Wholesale chicken kebabs to add a sweet, grapelike flavor. It was also encouraging to see Johnson total the second-highest average depth of target of his career in Week 16, per Pro Football Focus data. Who doesn’t love an entire postseason cramped into a three-week span? With Kim Kardashian’s net worth, there’s no way she buys bargain sandals. I have received many versions of this statement in recent weeks – i.e., people wanting the Jaguars to select Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins at No. Pirro seemed destined Wholesale Jerseys From China for political stardom. It echoes over the sounds Cheap Jerseys Usa of 39 race cars on Sunday, the NASCAR radio call-in shows Monday and all of the NASCAR podcasts and news conferences on Tuesday and into the Basketball Jerseys For Sale next race weekend. We can’t ever have enough good football players. I don’t think that he sees the role http://www.nflsaints.us.com/Thomas_Morstead_Jersey of the chief of staff to alter the personality of the person he works for, said former Representative Trey Gowdy, a friend and fellow South Carolina Republican who golfed with the president and Mr. In the 30-second video, the ex-girlfriend pulls the shocked groom away from his new wife, begging him to forgive her:

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itsfinancethings · 4 years