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junker-town · 7 years

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Can Nebraska football fans have patience? 2017 might require lots of it

Unless a lot of new pieces click during a lighter September, this landing could be rough.

Nebraska is one of the most fascinating programs to me this year. I have no idea what to expect from Mike Riley’s Cornhuskers. With turnover in virtually every unit — new quarterback, new starting running back, new Nos. 2-4 receivers, new starting center, top two tacklers gone on the defensive line and at linebacker, new starting safety/centerfielder — this program becomes Riley’s two years after he took over for Bo Pelini. The two-deep will be filled by either Riley recruits or Pelini recruits who have spent a majority of their careers under Riley.

Through two years, Riley has proven almost nothing. His first NU team was a dreadfully unlucky 6-7, losing six one-possession games with some of the worst turnovers luck in the country (minus-4.8 points per game). His second team was a wonderfully lucky 9-4, winning three one-possession games with some of the better turnovers luck in the country (plus-3.8 points per game).

You could make a case that the 2016 team was worse than 2015’s. S&P+ did, ranking the Huskers 46th last year, 10 spots lower than their previous iteration. The defense improved, but an experienced offense got worse in categories not based on luck. It was a successful year, in that NU got back to the nine-win range it’d grown tired of (among other things) with Pelini. But the team was limited, as evidenced by any game against a good team.

Nebraska vs. S&P+ top 30 (0-4): Avg. percentile performance: 28% (~top 90) | Avg. score: Opp 41, NU 14 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.5, NU 3.9 (minus-2.6)

Nebraska vs. everyone else (9-0): Avg. percentile performance: 73% (~top 35) | Avg. score: NU 32, Opp 16 | Avg. yards per play: NU 6.0, Opp 5.0 (plus-1.0)

Wins over Wyoming, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota and Maryland are nothing to scoff at, but Nebraska doesn’t make hires based on Minnesota. At least, it didn’t used to.

Riley is revered as one of the best people in football. He didn’t need long to heal some divisions caused by the cranky Pelini, and the first line on his résumé (“Built a consistent program at Oregon State”) will always be impressive.

But he’s 15-11 in two years in Lincoln. Over his last seven years as a head coach, he’s 44-44. Over his final four years in Oregon State, he fielded one top-35 team. He has not yet done so in Lincoln. He’s lost back-to-back games four times at NU — Pelini did that four times in six years. And Riley’s projected to go 6-6 this fall.

S&P+ ranks Nebraska 42nd with a projected win total of 6.3. The Huskers are the projected favorite in seven games. The defense could go from good to very good, if a new coordinator hire takes, but you could understand why the offense would be projected to stumble, given the returning production levels.

Still, it’s not like another mediocre season is set in stone. Riley and offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf have their guys on offense now. They’ll start a quarterback they recruited (likely Tulane transfer Tanner Lee). The offensive line, which offered 33 starts to sophomores last year and had to start eight different guys, might be experienced and stable. Recruiting has been solid (two-year ranking: 22nd), so while the skill position corps is undergoing massive turnover, the replacements will likely be pretty touted guys.

It’s easy to see why projections would be skeptical, but it’s also easy to see potential. The Huskers will likely start either 4-1 or 5-0 before welcoming Wisconsin — a team they nearly beat last year — to town. Momentum could drive a great year, or it could set up another “great start, mediocre finish” story like last year’s (and 2014’s, 2012’s, 2011’s, etc.).

With almost no projected senior starters on offense and few outside of the secondary on defense, this could be when the seeds of success are sown. Or it could be the year that gets Riley on the top of Hot Seat lists heading into 2018. I have no idea.

2016 in review

2016 Nebraska statistical profile.

The gulf between Nebraska’s ceiling and floor in 2016 was dramatic. Their offensive percentile rating topped 70 percent (~top 40) on four occasions and topped 90 percent twice. It was also below 30 percent (~top 90) five times. The Huskers averaged 6.2 yards per play against a good Minnesota defense and 5.2 against a miserable Oregon.

The defense was more stable — over 70 percent six times, under 30 percent twice — but still up and down. The Huskers shut down Wyoming and Maryland and gave up 40 to Iowa.

It does bear mentioning that the offense, and therefore the team as a whole, became much more scattershot late, when the schedule improved and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. dealt with injury. He had one of the best games of his career against Minnesota, but the second half of the year was washed away by good defenses and hamstring issues.

First 7 games (7-0): Yards per play: 6.3 | Team passer rating: 142.4 | Offensive percentile performance: 58%

Last 6 games (2-4): Yards per play: 4.3 | Team passer rating: 96.3 | Offensive percentile performance: 46%

Part of the regression was due to much better defenses showing up. But even when things were going well, NU was completing only about 55 percent of its passes. That fell to 46 percent over the last six games. And there were almost no big plays, which means the inefficient offense was rarely bailed out.

The defense didn’t cover itself in glory either, down the stretch. But the offense had the bigger issues, and now it’s starting over.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Armstrong Jr. was just good enough for the world to learn all of his flaws. If you stink, you get benched, but Armstrong was a solid rusher, willing to take hits and make plays. He finished his career with 8,871 passing yards, 1,172 rushing yards, and a combined 90 passing and rushing touchdowns. There’s nothing terrible about that.

His limitations were obvious, though. In 11 games against ranked opponents, he went 1-10 with a 48 percent completion rate and a 100.6 passer rating. Dreck. He was good enough to beat mediocre teams but almost never good enough to win a game Nebraska fans would remember.

But you still need a replacement, and it’s unclear whether the Huskers have one. Lee emerged as the top quarterback after spring practice, and at 6’4, 220, he looks the part. And he showed some upside in the spring game.

In two years at Tulane, however, he completed just 54 percent, with 23 touchdowns to 21 interceptions. He’s not much of a run threat (and he took far more sacks than Armstrong), and in 19 games, he produced a passer rating over 140 just four times; two came against Maine and 0-12 UCF in 2015.

Granted, Lee will have more high-caliber weapons than he did at Tulane. But he will also be facing infinitely better defenses.

But the good news is, Nebraska fans will keep their expectations for Lee in check—ohhhhhh nevermind.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Tanner Lee

In putting Lee atop the totem pole, Riley is choosing veteran presence over potential. That’s fine. And hey, Lee has a untapped potential in his own right. But it won’t be a surprise if either four-star youngster — redshirt freshman Patrick O’Brien or true freshman Tristan Gebbia — takes over the top spot before or during the season.

So who will Lee (or O’Brien, or Gebbia) be throwing to?

Stanley Morgan Jr. was the most targeted receiver last year but had a catch rate of just 51 percent and caught more than three balls in a game just twice last year. (He was also cited for marijuana possession in May.)

De’Mornay Pierson-El has spent three years as one of the most dangerous punt returners, and most frustrating receivers, in college football. Return skill doesn’t always equate to receiving skill, but after he caught 13 balls for 195 yards in the last three games of his freshman year, he caught just 12 for 111 in an injury-plagued 2015 and 20 for 254 last year.

Juniors Bryan Reimers (five catches in 2016) and Keyan Williams (seven at Fresno State in 2015) are the other only other wideouts with experience. Slot receivers JD Spielman (a redshirt freshman) and Tyjon Lindsey (a blue-chip true freshman) are tantalizing, but they’re all sorts of green. And the top two tight ends are gone, too.

Armstrong provided a threat with his legs (5.3 yards per non-sack carry, about 10 such carries per game) that Lee won’t. And even with that, Nebraska I-backs averaged a paltry 4.5 yards per carry, and the Huskers ranked just 90th in Rushing S&P+.

There’s hope in youth, though. Tre Bryant averaged just 3.9 per carry (3.6 after the season opener), but he was a freshman. And junior Mikale Wilbon, a former high-three-star, averaged 5.9 per carry (though that falls to 4.1 if you take away a single rush against Northwestern). That the line returns five players with 51 career starts is encouraging, but a lot of people have to grow up for NU’s run game to pop.

This feels like a transition year for Langsdorf’s offense. New blood isn’t a bad thing, and after last year’s No. 68 ranking in Off. S&P+, the bar is low. Still, it’s not easy to forecast improvement.

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Stanley Morgan Jr.

Defense

On paper, Riley’s decision to fire defensive coordinator Mark Banker was confusing. Banker had been Riley’s coordinator since 2003 at Oregon State, and his 2016 defense was better than both a) his 2015 defense and b) NU’s 2016 offense. Since an awesome run at OSU from 2007-10, he hadn��t fielded incredible units, but 2016 was a step in the right direction.

Perhaps the availability of Diaco influenced that decision. Riley and NU had to outbid Arkansas and others to win the former Notre Dame coordinator and UConn head coach. Diaco is respected (and, it must be said, has the most hypnotic eyes in college football), and his presence can’t hurt recruiting.

How much of an improvement is he over Banker, though? He did have a nice run at Notre Dame; from 2010-13, the Irish ranked fourth, 17th, fourth, and 31st in Def. S&P+.

That’s an average ranking of 14th, with a two-deep culled from top-15 recruiting classes. His UConn defense more or less reflected recruiting rankings, too (average Def. S&P+ over three years: 66th).

So if NU’s last four signing classes have ranked an average of 29th, per the 247Sports Composite, will the Huskers show much growth beyond the No. 33 unit they had last year?

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Freedom Akinmoladun

At least the transition from 4-3 to 3-4 seems like it should go well. Nebraska doesn’t have amazing size up front, but it should suffice. At least five linemen weigh 295 pounds or heavier, and in players like juniors Freedom Akinmoladun and Mick Stoltenberg and sophomores Carlos Davis and Khalil Davis, the Huskers boast a smidge of experience and play-making ability up front.

Senior Marcus Newby should take well to 3-4 outside linebacker, and junior ILB Dedrick Young II showed potential in pass defense. Incoming four-star freshman Avery Roberts could find a role soon.

Still, what’s the upside? If Diaco is reliant on good recruits to do good things, isn’t it a concern that, per 247, there are zero four-star linemen and only maybe two four-star linebackers (Newby, Roberts)?

Diaco has employed a patient, flexible 3-4, and the role of his front seven is to contain more than attack; maybe he’s got the pieces to do that.

There’s plenty of upside in the secondary, though. The loss of safety Nathan Gerry hurts, but he’s the only loss. Returning safeties Josh Kalu, Kieron Williams, and Aaron Williams combined for 10.5 tackles for loss, nine interceptions, and 20 breakups last year; if Diaco chooses to get aggressive in the back, that could pay off. Corners Chris Jones and Lamar Jackson (combined: five TFLs, 13 passes defensed) are keepers, too. Depth gets perilous at CB after those two, but they’re a good start.

Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

Joshua Kalu

Special Teams

There are reasons to like what NU’s got. The Huskers ranked 36th in Special Teams S&P+ last year, and almost everybody’s back, including place-kicker Drew Brown (no misses under 40 yards, 4-for-6 outside of 40, 28th in kickoff efficiency) and Pierson-El in punt returns. Pierson-El isn’t the most efficient return man, but he’s scary.

Punts could use a little work. Caleb Lightbourn averaged only 39.7 yards per kick last year, and NU ranked 88th in punt efficiency.

That could become more of an issue if the Husker offense struggles. Still, the odds of another top-40 finish are strong.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Arkansas State 83 13.5 78% 9-Sep at Oregon 23 -8.6 31% 16-Sep Northern Illinois 86 14.5 80% 23-Sep Rutgers 92 15.4 81% 29-Sep at Illinois 85 9.1 70% 7-Oct Wisconsin 11 -10.5 27% 14-Oct Ohio State 2 -17.9 15% 28-Oct at Purdue 87 9.7 71% 4-Nov Northwestern 37 1.5 53% 11-Nov at Minnesota 47 -1.3 47% 18-Nov at Penn State 8 -18.3 15% 24-Nov Iowa 48 3.7 59%

Projected S&P+ Rk 42 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 85 / 18 Projected wins 6.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 7.5 (36) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 22 / 26 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 5 / -4.8 2016 TO Luck/Game +3.8 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 46% (26%, 65%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 7.9 (1.1)

On paper, this feels like a transition year. The defense is shifting from a 4-3 to 3-4, and the offense is replacing about seven starters. The new starting QB didn’t prove much at Tulane.

The dynamics are fascinating, though. The new starters might be more suited to Langsdorf’s system than the departures were, and the odds of a fast start are strong. Even if the Huskers fall at rebuilding Oregon, they’re still looking at a 4-1 September. Odds are good that these new starters will have produced good numbers five games in.

After that, though? Over the last seven games, NU is looking at three projected losses (Wisconsin, Ohio State, at Penn State) and three tossups (Northwestern, at Minnesota, Iowa).

Take the tossups and pull an upset, and you’re looking at returning most of your starters from a nine- or 10-win team next year. Lose the tossups, and spring no surprises, and Riley has about 21 wins and two .500 seasons heading into year four. That sounds ... tenuous.

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