#was it just me that was aggressively taught in k-12 to never ever ever start any assignment like that

[palmettocapital]

A Man For All Markets (2017)

Recommended by: @Dutch_Book (who gave me one of his personal copies) and @JerryCap 

Super interesting childhood -- didn’t speak a word until he was two and then began speaking in full sentences; reading at a 10-yr-old level when he was 5. Details a lot of “science play” including a number of fairly advanced amateur chemistry and physics experiments he conducted as a kid

Compares ham radio to the first Internet, allowing amateurs with simple setup to communicate with people all over the world. Had to pass a licensing exam on Morse code to operate one. Used a self-devised system to teach himself Morse that was 4x faster than the method used to teach army trainees

Method for permanent retention was to fall asleep reviewing material he’d taught himself

Martingale system -- betting scheme that requires “doubling up” after each loss in a game like roulette, consistently betting (eg, always red), will eventually recoup your loss but subject to needing a very large bankroll and bets may get so big the casino disallows them

Initially attracted to beating roulette because he believed an equation properly factoring in friction and gravity could predict how the ball would fall, though conventional wisdom was that any noise would be enough to ruin the prediction. Later proved this to be the case.

Basic blackjack/21 dates to at least 1601 (mentioned by Cervantes), referred to by 18th Century French as vingt-et-un. Conventional wisdom was that it was mathematically proven no system of varied bets could beat the house’s edge, but Thorp decided to test it when he learned of a system that lowered house edge to 0.62% (best of the casino games on offer). 

His core insight on blackjack was that previous calculations had assumed the odds of any card being played stayed constant throughout the game, whereas Thorp realized the real odds varied wildly and depended on which cards were left in the deck --> means there are periods where player has an edge vs. house. So player just has to keep track of the shifting odds and vary his bets accordingly. This is the beginning of card counting. Simply, player’s edge for a deck in progress depends mainly on fraction/percents of each type of card present.

Modern computing (IBM 704) and Thorp’s access to it as an junior professor at MIT made his advances possible. Basically used a brute-force approach that wouldn’t have been possible by hand to test the impact of removing various card values from the deck on the player’s edge. Taking out small cards (2s-6s, and particularly 5s) helped player, removing 10s and Aces hurt player.

Devised his “ultimate strategy” which assigned a point value to every card, but was too hard to keep track of mentally. Decent compromise for usability was assigning 2s-6s a value of +1, 7s-9s a neutral 0 and 10/J/Q/K/A a -1. As small cards (+1s) are seen, implies a higher proportion of large cards remaining, so count rises and deck becomes more favorable.

5s are the most impactful card, but he decided to use a measure of “ten-richness” for casino play because there are 4x as many 10-value cards in a deck. Deck starts with 36 non-Tens and 16 Tens or a ratio of 2.25. Below 2.25 is “ten-rich”, at 2.0 the player has an edge of 1% and it rises as the ratio drops.

Decided to publish his results quickly because he believe in science it’s common for the time to be right for a discovery, with multiple researchers discovering something at the same time (eg, Newton & Leibniz with calculus; Darwin & Wallace with evolution). This was clearly the case with blackjack owing to improving computing power.

Initial approach was to bet 2x his minimum when edge was 1%, 4x when it was 2%, up to 10x when his edge was 5%. 

Spent a lot of time practicing his play as well as working his way up in terms of what he was emotionally comfortable betting in order to be able to play his system calmly/accurately.

Why 16 is such a bad hand in blackjack - draw and you bust with high probability, stand and dealer likely to beat you with 17+.

Odds swing around a lot more near the end of a single deck, so some players use “end play”. Casinos began to combat this with early reshuffling to keep returning deck to its initial state. Early reshuffling slows play and frustrates casual players, which hurt profitability -- eventually card-shuffling machines made this must faster, but casinos paid a per-shuffle fee to those vendors, so it was still a hit to profitability.

Discusses how there are some systems that rely on tracking cards following a shuffle, since one shuffle does not fully randomize a deck (apparently it’s been proven it takes 7 thorough shuffles to effectively randomize a deck). He built mathematical models and empirical studies to study shuffling.

“Third base” (left-most seat) best one for the card counter because he’s last to act and has seen more cards because play begins to dealer’s left.

Tested his mental/emotional state before playing by “counting a deck” -- if he could do this in 20-25 seconds, he was ready to play at speed.

Never play at a table for a 2-card blackjack has been changed from original 3:2 to something lower.

Their roulette strategy applied Kelly criterion thinking, ie that it’s worth forgoing some expected gain for a large reduction in risk. For example, their betting system on roulette yielded average profit at 44% of bet for one pocket, but a 43% advantage if they reduced risk by spreading the bet across 5 numbers (expected number + 2 on each side). Called “voisinage” betting in French.

Along with Claude Shannon (MIT prof & “father” of information theory), created the first ever wearable computer for beating roulette -- believes this is perhaps the first instance of a computer that could outplay any human at a game (later occurred in checkers, chess, Go, Jeopardy)

Key to beating baccarat was that while it was impossible to win on Banker/Player bets (due to card-counting being less effected with 8 decks in a shoe at once), side bets (around natural 8/9) had exploitable characteristics. These were later eliminated.

Baccarat is a high-rolled game and was massively profitable for casinos -- accounted for 50% as much profit as blackjack with 2% as many tables, ie 25x on a per-table basis.

His partner sourced investors for their first fund by going to the courthouse, pulling other funds’ filings, and cold-calling their LPs.

His approach to arbing warrants was to use computers to draw a fair value curve for the security and then buy or short the common/warrant based on which was rich/cheap to the curve, using the slope of the curve at that point as the hedge ratio. 

Converted Bachlier’s options pricing theory into a usable trading strategy by subbing in the risk free rate (UST bill with expiry closest to warrant expiry) for growth rate & discount rate. This was in 1967 vs. Black & Scholes publishing their formula in 1972.

Due to inability to assess cultural fit in interviews, his approach was to hire everyone for his fund on a provisional basis for 6 months

CBOT introduction of CBOE in 1973 was a game-changer for increased liquidity and lower costs to trading options (put options came in 1974)

His fund’s risk management approach rejected conventional notions like VaR in favor of more comprehensive/intuitive questions around what major risks could befall market or counterparties.

“Junk bonds” -- Milken/Drexel approach was a game-changer because it provided steady capital to less established companies that had not had financing needs met. This new spigot of capital increased competition for more established companies and led to hostile takeovers and restructurings, and apparently a structural rise in valuations -- he argues that blue chip companies with low returns on capital were vulnerable to Drexel-finance takeovers that often made them more valuable through more aggressive investment.

Interesting discussion of the arbitrage opportunity his son discovered in 1990 to participate in de-mutualization of small S&Ls across the US by becoming a depositor and subscribing pro-rata to rights offerings as they raised equity. Notes that management incentives made it clear this would happen over time as directors had priority subscription rights before depositors and could therefore capture outsize value.

He declined to be an LP at LTCM because he had heard John Meriwether had a history of taking outsize risk at Salomon, and he though Merton & Scholes lacked street smarts/investing experience.

His modeling suggests 2% rule is preferable to “4% rule” typically used in retirement calculations.

Key to using leverage responsibly is factoring in the worst imaginable outcome and whether you can tolerate it. If not, reduce borrowing.

Optimal bet under Kelly = edge/odds. Causes you to bet larger in situations with minimal downside or big edge. Because Kelly method leads to large swings, most users go <optimal, like half-Kelly or less. Requires long time horizons.

Since 1520, 85 institutions have remained continuously in existence -- 70 of these are universities.

Believes it’s easy to spot bubbles once well under way. Hard to profit, but key to avoid it.

Believes in scaling down TBTF institutions as a general rule.

Studies pre- and post-GFC show earnings and stock performance for a given company correlate negatively to the % of corporate profit paid to top-5 executive.

Believes there is a need for more probability/statistics education at the K-12 level -- aligns with Annie Duke there.

Economists have found one factor explains a nation’s future economic growth & prosperity above any other -- output of scientists & engineers.

Takeaways

Thorp is clearly a remarkable person -- a genius autodidact and a classic example of what Taleb would call a “skeptical empiricist”, somewhat obsessive about testing conventional wisdom using his own calculations, models and experiments, often identifying significant profit opportunities. It’s also a story about how the ability to stay abreast of technological breakthroughs (modern computing, new programming languages, new financial instruments, etc) over a long career can be extremely profitable, especially if you consistently get to them before others.

There are lots of remarkable autobiographical features I skipped over in my notes that make the book particularly worth reading. Thorp is an amazing idea of “American dream” type mobility -- born to a working class family during the Great Depression, attending public schools, winning scholarships and eventually working his way up to great wealth. The book makes him sound like the financial world’s Forrest Gump, as it covers almost every major issue of the last 50 years and Thorp/s involvement -- for example, he invents the card-counting method; “beats” blackjack, roulette and baccarat; meets Buffett as he’s winding down the Buffett Partnership; discovers Black-Scholes before Black/Scholes/Merton; participates in the early days of convertible arbitrage and evolves it into statistical arb; determines Madoff is running a fraud in 1991; pioneers quant and factor investing and the market-neutral approach to hedge funds, helps Ken Griffin & Frank Meyer get Citadel off the ground and signs on as their first LP; etc.

In many ways, the book is written for an investor with little technical knowledge and does a good job explaining much of what he worked on. The later ~1/3 of the book focuses on a number of his business ventures, opinions on politics/wealth/charity, and high-profile anecdotes that are interesting without being particularly technical.

[bountyofbeads]

‘Poor, smart and desperate to be rich’: How Epstein went from teaching to Wall Street

BY LINDA ROBERTSON AND AARON BREZEL | Published JULY 16, 2019 06:28 PM | Miami Herald | Posted July 17, 2019 |

Before Jeffrey Epstein managed money for the world’s rich and powerful, he was educating their teenage children.

Epstein, the accused sex trafficker awaiting a bail ruling in a Manhattan jail, taught math and physics at the Dalton School, a private K-12 institution whose students are the sons and daughters of New York City’s elite. It was there on the aristocratic Upper East Side in the mid-1970s that a charming, bright young man with a head for numbers catapulted from his Coney Island roots to a double life of astounding wealth and disturbing depravity.

By the time he was 45, Epstein was living 18 blocks from Dalton in a nine-story mansion now worth $77 million, one of several posh homes where investigators say he molested dozens upon dozens of young girls, who were recruited to give him massages and coerced into sex acts. He followed a similar pattern at his waterfront estate in Palm Beach, where he pleaded guilty in 2008 to soliciting prostitution — despite being charged with far more serious crimes against underage girls — and received a remarkably lenient sentence, courtesy of a U.S. attorney who would later become President Donald Trump’s labor secretary.

Epstein launched his financier career during a parent-teacher conference at Dalton in 1976 when he dazzled a student’s father with his intelligence. Epstein confided that he wasn’t cut out to be a teacher. He envisioned himself on Wall Street.

“This parent was so wowed by the conversation he told my father, ‘You’ve got to hire this guy,’ ” recalled Lynne Koeppel, daughter of the late Alan “Ace” Greenberg, an executive at Bear Stearns investment bank. “Give Jeff credit. He was brilliant.”

Greenberg was also impressed by Epstein, then 23, a two-time college dropout and son of a parks department employee. Greenberg, son of an Oklahoma City women’s clothing store owner, rose from Bear Stearns clerk to CEO and had an affinity for employees he called “PSDs” — poor, smart and desperate to be rich.

“That was Jeff,” Koeppel said. “He was very smart and he knew how to woo people, how to schmooze. He’s personable and makes good company.”

Did Epstein purposely position himself at Dalton to get a foot on the ladder to jet-setting, celebrity-mingling, power-brokering high society?

“If that was his plan, it worked,” she said.

Epstein, now 66, started his job at the Dalton School at age 21 without a college degree and taught high school students only a few years younger than he was.

He was informal, friendly and liked to joke around, former students said. He was popular with female pupils, despite his puzzling personality.

“Epstein was considered a little creepy by the girls,” alumna Karin Williams said. “I won’t say that the girls didn’t like him. But they thought he was odd.”

Despite his short stint, Epstein left an impression.

“He’s the only man who I’ve ever met who had a full-length fur coat,” said Williams, who remembered the coat as Epstein’s flamboyant 1970s fashion statement at a school with a conservative dress code.

Student-teacher relationships were not unheard of at Dalton, former students said. It was a permissive time in the United States, and 40 years before #MeToo. However, no one who spoke to the Herald recalled Epstein engaging in a relationship or initiating unwanted physical contact with them.

“In retrospect, you could see how maybe he was looking for young nymphs,” said alumna Heidi Knecht-Seegers. “But I didn’t have a class with him and I was one of the few who didn’t drink or smoke or go to parties.”

Epstein — a math whiz as a kid — rose quickly at Bear Stearns, making partner by 1980 as reported in a 2002 New York Magazine profile. But while Epstein impressed traders and hedge fund managers, many of his students were less taken.

“To me he didn’t belong there,” said Maya Travaglia, who had Epstein for 10th grade math. “It just felt very unformed. He didn’t command the class.”

Joshua Persky, who graduated in 1977, had Epstein for physics.

“I thought he was okay,” Persky said. “Once in a while, he could not complete a complex homework problem, which I didn’t mind either.”

Peter Thomas Roth, who later founded an eponymous skin care company, described Epstein as an “amazing” physics teacher of his favorite class on Facebook. Epstein also tutored Roth in statistics to prepare him for the Wharton School at Penn.

Still, some kids complained to school administrators, Persky said.

“I think it was unusual that a school focused on quality education would hire a person with no experience and no college degrees, especially when the Dalton teachers we knew were excellent,” said E. Belvin Williams, a former Dalton trustee and associate dean of the Teachers College at Columbia University. “My hunch is he had contacts with parents or board members.”

By comparison, Travaglia noted, her geometry teacher was Yves Volel, an activist and Haitian presidential candidate who was assassinated in the late ’80s. Volel’s style was much more rigorous.

Ultimately, Epstein’s haphazard, uninspired teaching led to his dismissal after the 1975-76 school year, according to Peter Branch who was the head of the high school.

“It was determined that he had not adequately grown as a new teacher to the standard of the school,” Branch said.

The Dalton School is one of a group of New York private schools known for demanding academics. And like its peers, Dalton is expensive. Tuition in the mid-’70s was about $3,200 for upper school students. Today it’s over $50,000.

There’s a focus on the arts at Dalton. Notable alumni include Anderson Cooper, Claire Danes, Sean Lennon — the son of John Lennon and Yoko Ono — and a long list of actors, artists and musicians. Curriculum follows “the Dalton Plan,” which encourages each student to make his or her own educational choices.

The school offered a rich assortment of classes — 10 languages, including Russian; printmaking; jewelry-making; sculpture and drawing classes with nude models.

Persky performed modern dance with Jennifer Grey — “Baby” from “Dirty Dancing” — and Shauna Redford, daughter of Robert Redford.

Epstein arrived during a transition period for the Dalton School. The previous headmaster, Donald Barr, father of current Attorney General William Barr, quarreled with the board of trustees and resigned. Barr was a disciplinarian who clashed with the progressive parents.

“Donald Barr was a very authoritarian headmaster,” Karin Williams said.

Following Barr’s departure, T-shirts and sneakers were incorporated into the dress code. Blue jeans and “long male hair” were still prohibited, according to The Daltonian, the school’s newspaper. Travaglia remembers administrators measuring the length of girls’ skirts during the Barr years.

Barr left a semester before Epstein arrived and it’s unclear whether Barr had a hand in hiring him. Branch, who was interim headmaster, did not remember who hired him.

Apart from Epstein, Dalton has weathered a few of its own scandals in recent years. In 2013, a school email to boosters and donors included a confidential list of children who had been rejected. Gardner Dunnan, the headmaster who succeeded Barr, has been sued, accused of sexually assaulting a female student that he let stay in his apartment in 1986. The case has been transferred to the Southern District of New York, where Epstein is being prosecuted for alleged sex trafficking.

Epstein built a career making connections with the well connected. He got his start at Dalton and never moved far away. At Dalton, he was surrounded by the young girls he became fixated on as an alleged sexual predator, and schools became his preferred hunting ground.

His most recent accuser, Jennifer Araoz, said she was approached by one of Epstein’s recruiters when she was a 14-year-old freshman outside The Talent Unlimited High School on East 68th Street, a handful of blocks from his mansion. She was brought to him by a woman in her 20s who told her he was a caring man who could help her become an actress. He showed Araoz around his opulent townhouse with its super-sized decor of statues, taxidermy, leopard-print furniture and a Steinway grand piano, while white-gloved servants offered her wine and cheese, according to her court filings and an NBC interview. She was paid $300 for her visits until the day a massage in a special room with angels painted on the sky-blue ceiling turned into rape, Araoz said.

Her story mirrors those of other victims, who said he preyed on young teens who often had artistic aspirations He sought out insecure, vulnerable girls; prosecutors speculate there could be hundreds. Even Epstein’s friends remarked -- in flattering tones -- on how Epstein loved women and was frequently in the company of young women in New York, Palm Beach, at his Zorro Ranch in New Mexico or his private island in the Caribbean. His jet was nicknamed the “Lolita Express.”

At the Interlochen School for the Arts in Michigan, Epstein targeted 13-year-old Nadia Bjorlin, according to her mother, who told the Daily Mail that Epstein offered to be Nadia’s “godfather” and foster her singing career. Bjorlin’s mother, wary of Epstein and his aggressive assistant Ghislaine Maxwell, rejected his perverse proposal; Nadia went on to become a soap opera star.

Araoz and Bjorlin had both lost their fathers shortly before Epstein approached them.

Epstein, a talented pianist who attended Interlochen summer camp as a kid, donated $17,000 and a new cabin adjacent to the girls’ dorms to the school in the woods.

Epstein created a self portrait, framing himself as a wealthy party host, philanthropist and intellectual, donating money of uncertain origins from his foundations to arts organizations, scientists, Harvard University, the Santa Fe Institute think tank and cancer research funds.

He gave $180,000 to Ballet Florida in West Palm Beach, some of that earmarked for therapeutic massages.

The all-girls Hewitt School, located four blocks from his Manhattan mansion, received $15,000.

Epstein donated $75,000 to Dalton, springboard to the role he wanted to play.

The last time she saw her old teacher, a Dalton alumna recalled, Epstein was crossing Park Avenue at 71st Street with Woody Allen and his young wife, Soon-Yi Previn.

Miami Herald investigative reporter Nicholas Nehamas contributed to this report.

[ecotone99]

[SP] Keeper

I set the cup of coffee back on the table as I took my last sip. I let the warm and bitter taste of the coffee stay for a while before I finally let it down. I finally felt myself a little bit more energetic than when I woke up. Coffee always had that effect on me. It was a few hours after sunrise that I found myself here at Raed's cafe.

Raed's was this homey little cafe near my apartment, only a 10-minute walk away. It was only after a few days from when I moved here that I stumbled upon this place. I remembered feeling very glad that there was a place like this near my new home. After my first visit, I frequently found myself going back to Raed's just to have that cup of coffee and to meet with K.

K was the manager and owner of Raed's Cafe, who I met during my first visit. He was a tall man standing just below six feet with brown wavy hair and a picture perfect smile. He always wore this tucked in, black, long sleeved polo with the nameplate "Manager" pinned to it, which was also always paired with slim khaki pants. He was the type of guy who was always the center of attention in the room, always full of energy. We quickly became friends after my first visit.

"You want another one?" K asked as he passed by my table, which was directly in front of the bar.

I nodded. "Yeah, thanks." K told his barista to prepare another coffee and after a while, I was drinking my second cup.

"So, how are you?" he asked, as he took a seat across me. "It's been a while since you last went here. It's nice to see a regular back again." he asked.

"Well," I sighed. "It's the usual daily mess of going to work everyday from 12 to 5. Those are short hours, but I'm telling you, they're really stressful. It's really nice to relax here and be sane every morning before I go to work."

"I'm glad you like it here," he smiled. "At least I know I get to help someone start their day right."

I nodded. "Oh! That would be a nice line for the greeting card I'm working on. 'Help someone start their day right'. Perfect for coffee shop owners and the .like/"

K laughed, "I'd like a commission for that if ever you actually use that."

"They'd probably reject it as usual," I laughed. "It really is hard to work in that job - writing greetings I don't even mean. What a joke! My works have gotten approved and I got paid fairly so who am I to complain? I wouldn't even be here if it weren't for that job. The pay is good so I didn't mind moving."

"That's tough," K said. "I'm lucky that we're a team here in Raed's. We work together to think of things, while you, on the other hand, have to do things alone."

"Let's switch jobs," I said jokingly.

K laughed and said that he had to check on a few things. "I'll see you again tomorrow?"

"Yeah, I’ll see you," I said, as I finished the cup of coffee. I stood up and made my way to the door. "Thanks, K."

It was an hour before noon, just the right time to head to work. I took a 15-minute walk to the bus stop and waited. It took around 5 minutes before the bus came. When I got off the bus at Downtown DT District, I walked for another 15-minutes and then I found myself in front of the building of my office. It was a 5-storey building with glass windows and modern design. I looked up and saw the window not far from my cubicle at the 3rd floor. It was actually staring outside through the window and watching people that was my real work. Often times, writing greeting cards needed inspiration and I found it outside.

I went in the building and went inside the elevator. It was cramped as usual, full of people wearing their fancy suits and ties. I blended in like normal with my navy blue suit. I always thought that my outfit didn't fit with my job. I felt like I was overdressed just to write for 5 hours. Once the elevator reached the 3rd floor, I made my way out. My cubicle was found on the far end of the aisle that went straight from the entrance of the elevator. I set my bag down beside my monitor and sat down. It was going to be a long 5 hours.

The usual day at work would consist of reading submissions from my staff, revising the submissions, and finally making my own greeting card, which would all be submitted to Chief Bill, the President Writer. The task may seem easy, but there are a lot of submissions to go through, maybe 40 to 50 a day. And I would need to finish those in 5 hours. THis was what the Head Writer did and I didn't understand it at first when I was promoted, but I didn't mind.

I read the first out of forty submissions from my staff sent to my email. The design was bright, colorful, and bordered by straight lines. In the middle of the card, a greeting was placed in fancy lettering. 'After one drink, everything will click' I was puzzled right after I read the greeting. It didn't even make sense. I checked who wrote the card and it was the intern, Joseph. I typed in my feedback, reminding him that he's working for the Motivational Cards Department, not the Alcoholics Department. Some people really can't do things properly, I thought. I read through all of the submissions and I was surprised that there were only five submissions that needed major improvement. I was thankful for that since usually there were ten to fifteen submissions that needed major revisions.

The light of the golden hour was glaring at my window I finished working. It was a stressful yet productive day at work. I made my way out of my cubicle to report to Chief Bill.

I knocked on the door thrice and opened it. "How are you doing? I've sent all the submissions to your email, Chief," I reported. Chief Bill grunted and I closed the door. The Chief never really was a guy for small talk.

I got my bag from my cubicle and made my way to the elevator. The trip down was uncomfortable and very noisy. There were officemates planning their night out and there was also the usual rant about the superiors. I hated noise like that. Thankfully, as I was about to get sick of it, the elevator reached the lobby. I hurriedly walked out and I was on my way home. The route home may be the same, but it was always longer. I realized it was because of the increase in the people riding the bus. There were also a lot more cars than there were before noon.

I got off the bus at AD District and walked for half an hour to my apartment. On the way, I caught a glimpse of Raed's and I saw only a few people in the cafe. I would've gone inside for a cup of coffee, but I figured that I would wait for tomorrow. I reached the building of my apartment and opened the gate. The apartment complex was five-storeys tall, relatively new, and there were 8 apartments for each floor. My apartment was on the fifth floor and I always rode the elevator going up. I reached the door of my unit '502' and unlocked it.

The familiar smell of home, soft leather, and linen greeted me as I went inside. The apartment was a studio sized room with the essential kitchen, bathroom, and bedroom/living room area. It was a small yet comfortable space for one person. Found on the left side from the entrance was the bathroom, on the other side was a mini closet room, and straight from the entrance was the bedroom/living room area on the right side with the kitchen right across it. I went inside the closet room and changed my clothes. I wore a soft white shirt and shorts, my usual sleeping attire.

I was getting hungry so I cooked up a small meal for myself at the kitchen. The days of living alone taught me how to be a good cook. It was in my college days when I started preparing food for myself. I started with instant noodles and the like, but then I got tired of it. So, I learned how to cook. Now, in my late 20's, I can say that I've learned and mastered a lot of dishes. Tonight's meal was my favorite Adobo along with a few cups of rice. I took my first bite and I tasted the rich flavor of the adobo along with the salty and sour taste of the sauce. I could've cooked it better, I thought.

After cleaning up, I looked at the clock and it was four hours before midnight. I sat on the couch and I reflected about my day. Today was the usual day of getting up early, getting coffee, and going to work. It was routine. My life has become routine since I landed my first job right after college six years ago. I graduated with a degree in Creative Writing and I had dreams of becoming a novelist. I wanted to write my own book, sell it, market it, and just be proud of it. Instead of doing that, I focused on my career and I got jobs in companies that needed writers for their marketing team. After three years of marketing jobs, I moved to writing greeting cards since the pay was surprisingly better. Even though I despised it, I did my best at work in order to earn more. I got a good income, a good career, and a few friends, but I wasn't happy.

I sighed and stood up to get some warm coffee. I took a sip and I felt the relaxing energy of it all. It was refreshing. I sat down again and thought about my dreams. Stagnation and routine. Those two words were the words I hated the most. In the past, I stood out from the rest since I wrote pieces that were always moving and outside of the box. Now, I am what I despised - inside the box and stagnant. It was in the past year that I realized this. Since then, I've been trying to get back to working on my dreams but the cycle was hard to break out of. It was when I talked to Kanna a few months ago when I realized I should change.

"Taki, you can't go live your life being miserable. You have your own passion. You're a master with words and you're writing greeting cards?" Kanna said as she looked at me straight in the eye. Her sharp eyes stared at me and I felt attacked.

"I-I don't know," I muttered.

We were in a cafe in BD District drinking coffee and reminiscing about the past. It had been half a year since I last saw her, my best friend. She still wore her black hair short and she still had that aggressive yet caring way of talking. It was our free day from work in a long time and after catching up on our lives, I opened up to her about my realizations.

"You can always write your feelings down and everything, but you can't express yourself when you need to talk?" She sighed. "Ok. I won't force you into telling me something you can't properly express. But do promise me this," she looked at me again straight in the eye. "The next time we meet I want you to show me something new! I know you, Taki. I believe in you."

I was taken aback by her strong belief in me. Kanna was a really strong-hearted person and she had this way of influencing others to believe in her. I didn't really believe in myself at that time, but I trusted her. It took a hard effort for me to get the words out of my mouth. "Ok. I promise."

"There you go!" she smiled. "Place this moment in your Keeper so you won't forget."

"I will," I said. I was very thankful for Kanna on that day.

I removed my Keeper, which was my watch, from my wrist and held it. I closed my eyes and I thought of the day when I promised to Kanna. I searched for the memory and there it was. I saw the image of Kanna of that day at the cafe forming inside my head. I felt the energy and feelings of that memory surge into my head and engulf me. I did as she told me and kept the memory in the Keeper. This was the function of the Keeper. It can store memories that I chose to keep and seal in it. It was very useful in remembering important moments like my promise to Kanna.

I held on tight to my Keeper and thought hard of the new promise that I had made with myself. The process of storing a new memory needed focus and concentration. I condensed everything I felt and thought about during that time into one single memory. There was a beeping sound from the Keeper that told the memory was saved.

I finished my cup of coffee and thought about tomorrow. Tomorrow would be different.

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[wildlyhardphilosopher-blog]

how to teach your puppy to walk on a leash | how do i train my puppy to stop biting me

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how to teach your puppy to walk on a leash | how do i train my puppy to stop biting me

Noticing an emphasis on potty training? Here are a few tips to get you started in the right direction: Prevue Pet Products (2) Saturday Lifetime Class Wantagh 10am (weather permitting)/li> Free 5-8 business-day shipping within the U.S. when you order $25 of eligible items sold or fulfilled by Amazon. Swheat Scoop Step 1: Decide Your Puppy’s Feeding Schedule Environmental Factors Daily Schedule Home, Yard & Beyond Which facility location works best for you? * The term “good owner” is used to mean that rules are always enforced and that the good behavior is always rewarded. Dogs look for leadership from their owner. Indulging in bad behavior such as nipping, begging, stealing from the table, barking, etc. are all bad habits. Do not make excuses for these behaviors and do not allow a pup to develop unpleasant behaviors. A trained pup will become a trained dog and those who come in contact with your pup/dog expect good behavior. Do not tolerate jumping, growling, snapping or nipping. This behavior must always be corrected so it is always seen as unacceptable to the pup/dog. 35.99 SIGN UP for our newsletter Podcasts All other time is SUPERVISED free time, spent socializing, relaxing and bonding with the family and so on. Online Pharmacy Equipment Check-list November 9, 2015 If you cannot watch your puppy, the chances of them making a mistake go through the roof. So even if you choose to use a constant supervision method exclusively, you will still need to confine your puppy sometimes to a paper covered area just in case. Your dog won’t know his name until you really teach it to him! Teaching your dog his name is actually about teaching your dog to look at you when you say his name. This is one of the more fun training games for 8-10 week old puppies! Join Hill’s® My Pet Companion What is the number one question that I hear from dog owners – Aly, how do I house train or potty train my dog? Potty training is all about patience and consistency. You need to make sure you are not losing “your cool” and getting upset with your dog and make sure to keep your puppy or dog on a strict schedule. Basic manners 10 Ways to Give Your Dog More Mental Stimulation How to Potty Train a Dog With an Enclosed Yard on fashion brands AbeBooks Neuroscience & Psychology Don’t be too tactile. It’s hard to resist giving your puppy a stroke but, where possible, you should try to use touch as a reward action for your puppy. “A pat or a cuddle is a reward to a dog,” explains Beck. “So if you show physical affection when your puppy is misbehaving it will think that type of behaviour is acceptable and may repeat it to generate another cuddle.” Keep your puppy on a schedule. Feed him at regular times and always give him a chance to relieve himself right after being fed. (we feed our puppies Wellness Core Puppy Formula – affiliate link) & up (464) The Trail Runner System: Whole Dog Journal’s Review Pug Here For You Anytime There’s an excellent chance that your dog can be trained to eliminate appropriately outside of the house. The behavior is far more likely related to a medical problem, an insufficient reinforcement history for appropriate responses, insufficient opportunities for success, the wrong cleaning products, or a combination of these factors. Sustainability Concentrate on the crate! diet All Products Carefully watch them and you should soon notice what body language means a wee or a poop is imminent. There will be recognizable signs. Hi Noreen, Growly Dog Advanced Featured content How to Train a Puppy to Accept Handling All meals in the crate In other languages: Apply There are only 2 possibilities: Glen of Imaal Terrier Develop a way of communicating to understand each other’s needs. Are you an author? Learn about Author Central Romance HOT TOPICS Arizona’s Oldest & Largest No-Kill Shelter Why Grooming Your Dog is Important Take a few steps back. Reward him with a treat and affection if he stays. Related services skip navigation Nickel is a wonderful pet who barks loudly at other dogs and many people including our neighbors. I wanted help controlling some of this behavior without using aggressive or negative reinforcement techniques. I had previously been through other forms of training with Nickel. Ruth Skinner taught my husband and I how to communicate with Nickel in a… $15.19 Repeat Delivery The ideal time to start housetraining a puppy is 8.5 weeks, but any dog of any age can be housetrained as long as their human is consistent, positive and patient 1. Don’t lead with fear. Make a Reservation On petco.com we’ll match the online advertised price for these key competitors: chewy.com, petsmart.com, wag.com, walmart.com, target.com, amazon.com, and jet.com. 5 minutes of playful romping Pointing Breeds Why SFPP Some things you need to be mindful of: Fundraise for Animals This particular behavior would be a “No.” Memorials & Honorary Gifts Jolanta helps clients with general manners problems and also with serious difficulties such as aggression and separation anxiety. Jolanta also volunteers with Pet Help Partners, a program of the Humane Society of the United States that works to prevent pet relinquishment. Her approach is generally behaviorist (Pavlovian, Skinnerian and post-Skinnerian learning theory) with a big helping of ethology (animal behavior as observed in non-experimental settings). She’s happy to report that the science supports dog-friendly, human-friendly training, with plenty of rewards and fun. At 10-12 weeks, puppy play is very mouthy – it’s a natural canine way to learn about their world and to play. Start teaching your puppy not to bite your hands and ankles during play in two ways. Weekends. View more related content Overnight Care Contra Costa County Resources I have never owned a dog, and we’re getting a puppy in a few weeks. Naturally, I’m trying to read all tips possible. This book is good for first time owners. It’s a quick read and the keys are reinforced numerous times so you remember them. If you are a first time dog owner, I recommend this book. Vicky is awesome. I would highly recommend Bark Busters to train your dog. She is a great trainer! Seeking Sanctuary – Outdoor/Barn Cat Placement I say it’s the most effective method I know or have ever read about. Puppy’s learn the correct behavior quicker than with any other technique and there’s fewer mistakes (and less cleaning!) along the way. The video that has been circulating on Facebook showing a trainer hitting a dog with a plastic bat over and over, is sparking outrage. Your IP: 35.237.233.167 November 20, 2017 Add to List With Partners Dog Training, we are here for you. Too many trainers claim to “fix” your dog and leave you hanging. At Partners, we are devoted to discussing, educating and following up. From experienced consultants; to one-on-one check-in interviews, to transition lessons and group classes. Our training system is designed to help you and your dog find success! Locations & Contacts Rufus & Coco Other Buy Rocco & Roxie Professional Strength Stain & Odor Eliminator fro Walmart for $29.99 Report: King County deputy shoots man reaching for rifle “The trainer who was seen in the video striking the dog was interviewed as were other staff members and manager. It was reported that the Academy of Canine Behavior was asked to work with the dog after it had exhibited strong signs of aggression. The investigation concluded the behavior of the trainer towards the dog did not rise to the level of cruelty to animals as defined by statute,” the county’s press release said. This page was last edited on 24 July 2018, at 00:41 (UTC). Konrad Lorenz, an Austrian scientist who is regarded as developing the foundations of ethological research,[14] further popularised animal behaviorism with his books, Man Meets Dog and King Solomon’s Ring.[15] Lorenz stated that there were three essential commands to teach a dog: “lie down” (stay where you are), “basket” (go over there) and “heel” (come with me).[16] Puppy Barking Puppy Training  Buy Now Cat Behaviors and Common Problems Explained The Happy Puppy Site It may sound contradictory, but if you see a wet spot or a pile on the floor, the least productive thing you can do is punish your puppy. By the time you find an accident, even if it’s only a few minutes afterward, they’ve forgotten what they’ve done. Read on in the slides below to check out all of our favorite puppy potty training products. Day 3 Upon waking up from a nap You take the dog out, but nothing happens. 7 Tips for Delightful Hotel Stays with Your Puppy Homes 8 New Website Help Guide Lost and Found Share this page Things We Need Birds Copyright © 2018 HubPages Inc. and respective owners. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. HubPages® is a registered Service Mark of HubPages, Inc. HubPages and Hubbers (authors) may earn revenue on this page based on affiliate relationships and advertisements with partners including Amazon, Google, and others. Hillman Courses On Sale This type of training does not rely on making dogs worried or frightened, so there is less danger of causing problem behaviours. This approach also means that dogs have better welfare, enjoy their training and form a better bond with owners or carers – so why would we do anything else?

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fbq('track', 'ViewContent', content_ids: 'dogtraining.dknol', ); How to toilet train your puppy Petlanthropy How Long Does It Take to Potty Train Your Dog? 4 years ago from Southeastern Massachusetts Follow us: (96) Find An Event $0.99 This will come back to haunt you in a big way and result in noisy sleepless nights. You want your puppy to learn that night-time is for sleeping and for nothing else. Don’t pause prevention, protect your pet now. Pets and Vets Canine Good Citizen In reality, it’s almost impossible to keep an eye on your puppy at all times, even during the first critical days. You need to take a break once in a while and give your pup one, as well. Without enforceable limitations, respect can’t be developed. And when there is no respect, building a bond with your Dog is almost impossible. If using umbilical cord training: Attach a leash and tether your puppy to you, ready to react if they make moves to eliminate. Take them to their bathroom spot at the scheduled time. ✘ Close 93443 Lucy Easton July 26, 2018 at 9:21 am Related Video Shorts Food & Nutrition Don’t allow him on any furniture for one week. Every time your dog pees or poops outside it needs to be celebrated. Give them baby talk or a treat, jump up & down, pat their little heads & remind them of how brilliant that decision was. Yes it might look silly but your pup needs to know he’s done the best thing ever. When you consistently praise your puppy for going outside they’ll start to understand that going potty outside is the best decision available. Price List First of all, make sure you’ve spent enough time out there. As soon as your puppy wakes up. Puppies almost always go potty right after waking up. See More potty training a dog in an apartment | puppy crate training potty training a dog in an apartment | puppy training tips potty training a dog in an apartment | crate training puppies Legal | Sitemap

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This Sleeper’s a Keeper: A 14,000-Mile Unrestored Original 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle SS454 LS6

Up in the hills the crafters still refer to it as squeezin’s, trickling through a homemade distillation system. More public and commercial now, old-school moonshine remains a sort of rite of passage for many. The Chevelle SS you are looking at is the automotive equivalent of good moonshine. Plain white wrapped, column shift, bench seat, and little to show that it is packing a real kick. It goes smooth, then you realize you are at 110 mph or faster. As for the crafter, well, that would be ol’ Chevrolet, passing the LS6 around to some guy named Roger Penske. How much should you use? Oh, we are just sippin’ it, a little at a time; in fact, less than 15,000 miles since it was purchased back in 1970.

Tim Wellborn is noted for his ability to buy cars right, and this one came into the collection in Alabama back in 2013 after it was offered at Mecum’s Indy Classic. At the time, Tim and his wife Pam already had a low-mileage black LS6 in their collection, but something about this particular car drew Tim’s attention with enough pull that he decided it was worth chasing.

“I like white muscle cars, and I thought the gold interior was a great complement to it,” says Tim. “Plus, it was a non-cowl induction car, non-stripe car, a bare-bones car. The black one was such a time capsule, and it had taught me a lot about these cars, so when this one came up I decided it was worth chasing if it came in at a good price. It did.”

Column shifters on muscle cars could be considered a detriment in some cases. The lever in the LS6, however, looks almost aggressive in its angularity. Tim was correct when he wondered if the selling price would end up being reasonable as result, and he took it home without topping $100,000.

While some factors may not have helped the car, others did. “The first thing that caught my attention on this car was that metal Roger Penske dealership tag on the decklid, because everybody knows who he is,” says Tim. “How many LS6 Chevelles are still around that have provenance from his dealership? I figured not many, and that adds to this car’s interest and value.

“This car has more original documentation, including notes the original owner wrote, than any other car I have ever owned. In 1992, the owner had written up the history of the car and wanted it sold at auction. That sale had happened about a year before I bought it, so the guy who consigned it was only the second owner. And it’s so original. The owner wrote notes regarding everything he ever did to it, even everything he replaced. The tailpipes, oil and coolant changes, plugs, air and oil filters, wiper blades and tires—that was it. It has the original driveline, original paint, original interior, all of it.”

Once Tim got it back to the museum, he found it to be “an amazing driver. It’s smooth, quiet and extremely powerful. People know I have a lot of Mopars, and I love them, but this is a completely different ride. In fact, Dennis Gage was down here filming for his TV show, and after driving this Chevelle he got out and told me it was the best-riding muscle car he had even been in.”

So how did this jug o’ lightnin’ get through to today without the sort of abuse so many other muscle cars suffered? On May 25, 1970, a young man named Burton Greeby came to Havertown, Pennsylvania, to Mr. Penske’s big Chestnut Street dealership in Philadelphia. He had a pretty good idea what he wanted: a 1970 Chevelle LS6 454/450hp with the cloth interior (on the order form, “blue” is scratched out and “tan” written in), tinted glass, a rear defogger, a rear speaker, automatic transmission, a 3:31 Positraction rearend, power steering, and a heavy-duty battery.

The salesman calculated an approximate total of $4,111, but Greeby did some hard negotiating, special-ordering the car for $3,699 and a grand total of $3,931 including tax. As Tim noted, the paperwork is extensive, so this form shows he could not get factory air, and they killed the power locks to get the price down. There is a factory build sheet here, something not often seen, and it shows the specifics of the car’s construction. The sales-day notes show that Greeby came to the dealer with a whole lot of money (yep, sounds like moonshinin’) on July 7 to pay the entire bill off and pick up his new wheels.

Southeastern Pennsylvania, with its street race scene and local dragstrips, was a hot place to be. Havertown itself was home to K&G Speed Associates, sponsors of the Frantic Ford Mustang fuel Funny Car. Steve Kuniuka’s place was down in Concordville, near the East Coast base of Jungle Jim Liberman. Indeed, among the paperwork that Tim got with the car are timeslips from Atco Raceway, just over the bridge in Jersey. Somehow the car was classed into SS/DA, though it was not in worked-up Super Stock trim by any stretch of the imagination.

Greeby wrote little notes on each slip: air cleaner on or off, low-gear start, and so on. The Chevelle’s best e.t., being big in weight and with a 3.31 cog, was 13.85. It is not known how many laps were made except for these few slips, and since there is a drawing of how the smog equipment was routed, it’s possible he temporarily pulled it off for the effort. Regardless, the car was never modified seriously for racing and seems to have been very well cared for from day one. Even that smog junk.

So when Tim himself was selling a group of cars from the collection at Mecum’s Florida auction several years ago, he chose to send the black car over the block. It had stripes, a similar solid history, and a little more curb appeal to the general buying public. The white car became the keeper.

Tim says, “In my opinion there were really three ‘greatest muscle cars of all time’: the 1971 Hemi ’Cuda, the Boss 429 Mustang, and the LS6 Chevelle. These were the benchmarks for Chrysler, Ford, and GM of that era. So as the collection has grown and matured, we wanted to make sure we had representation on those. I still need to find a comparable replacement for the Boss ’9 we used to have.”

At a Glance

1970 Chevelle SS454 Owned by: Tim & Pam Wellborn, Alexander City, AL Restored by: Unrestored original Engine: 454ci/450hp LS6 V-8 Transmission: TH400 3-speed automatic Rearend: 12-bolt with 3.31 gears and Positraction Interior: Gold (“tan”) cloth bench seat Wheels: 14-inch SS Rallye Tires: F70-14 Goodyear Polyglas Special parts: Rear speaker, rear defogger, tinted glass, H/D battery, power steering, AM radio; 14,175 original miles

The designers made major changes to the 1970 Chevelle release, moving the taillights into the bumper structure and giving the SS a flat-black panel with callout lettering offset to the right side. With the LS6, a lot of guys saw this view.

For many enthusiasts, the 450hp 454 LS6 is still considered the pinnacle of street production engines from Chevrolet. Available only one year in high-compression trim, the 454 established immense street cred for the brand in 1970, and likely helped sell a lot of more basic examples to people who could not afford the insurance premiums on this bad boy.

Though most people removed the emissions equipment for good, the original owner drew up the exact routing, leading to the conclusion that he may have removed it for one of his drag racing tests but had the foresight to save it. The scarce original components are still there, and the routing sketch was in with the paperwork.

Tim Wellborn admits that the gold interior was a big attraction, and we agree it goes great with the white body. On the handwritten order form, the “blue’ is scratched out and “tan” written in, meaning that original owner Burton Greeby may have reached the same conclusion as he sat down with the salesman.

The column shifter is not on everybody’s must-have list, but on the Chevelle it looks almost nasty. Selecting it eliminated the weight of extra bucket seat structures, took down the initial purchase cost, and, most importantly, let your girlfriend ride closer.

These undated timeslips from Atco Dragway were likely from the car’s first year of existence. The car ran high 13s, though based on speed readings, tire spin was a challenge. Being classed in SS/DA, where the dialed-in Division 1 Hemi Mopars ran, did not help matters and may have been one reason drag racing was never seriously pursued.

Wellborn noted that the extensive Penske paperwork helped seal the deal. The handwritten order form, assembly plant build sheet, and window sticker help tell the story, but are just a few of the many items that were included in the car’s sale. It has had just three owners since delivery.

The low-mileage car delivered on its promise of originality and condition once it was in the collection. Dennis Gage drove it for his TV program and returned smiling, saying it was the best-riding muscle car he had even been in.

“I Thought the Wellborns Had Mostly Mopars”

Tim and Pam Wellborn are noted for their museum in Alexander City, Alabama. When we contacted Tim about this story, he joked a little about the Mopar connection.

“Yeah, we have got some, but the museum is not just for Mopars. We have a bunch of GM and Ford stuff on display right now. That Chevelle, an SD455 Trans Am from 1973, a Ram Air IV GTO Judge convertible, a G.T. 350 Shelby, and more. We have had some people wanting to put cars on display, so that has let us rotate through a lot more variety.”

The museum is open on Saturdays, as well as by appointment.

Wellborn Muscle Car Museum 124 Broad St. Alexander City, AL 35010 (256) 329-8474 wellbornmusclecarmuseum.com

The post This Sleeper’s a Keeper: A 14,000-Mile Unrestored Original 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle SS454 LS6 appeared first on Hot Rod Network.

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