#what do you mean there were 12 months. no there weren't. 2022 ended in mid august. perfect year with no bad months at all

[eggmeralda]

listening to my february-june 2022 playlist which led to ⬇️

[cindylouwho-2]

Etsy Third Quarter Earnings 2023 - It's the Economy, Not Upper Management's Fault (Apparently)

Slide 12 from Etsy's 3rd Q earnings call, © Etsy; they are definitely going all out to let US buyers know about the Purchase Protection changes.

Etsy's third quarter 2023 didn't show any real sales growth, and upper management is projecting an even weaker holiday season. However, economic issues and geopolitical instability bore the brunt of the blame, along with ecommerce competition that is spending too much money on ads (compared to Etsy, of course). The top brass doesn't think it has made any big mistakes, and surprisingly, didn't announce any new ideas to get things moving again, largely repeating what's been said for the past year or more.

That doesn't mean we didn't learn anything new, though, so let's dive into the aspects that will most interest sellers. In portions where I am reporting on what was said or posted, I will put my personal commentary in square brackets to separate it out.

First, here are the resources that you should read/watch yourself, if you want to know more:

the press release

transcript of the conference call

slides from the conference call

video of the call (click on “Webcast” under “Latest Quarterly Results”)

my summaries of the third quarter 2022, and the second quarter 2023 for comparison

Second, the basic numbers (covering July to September 2023, compared to the same period in 2022):

Sales on Etsy were $2.7 billion, up 1% 

Total sales for all 4 marketplaces (Etsy, Reverb, Depop, Elo7) were $3.0 billion, up 1.2%. [Elo7 was officially sold in mid August, meaning it was only included for half of the quarter]

Etsy’s revenue (including all 4 sites) was $636.3 million, up 7%

Seller service revenue was up 16.2% to $175.4 million, while marketplace revenue was up 3.9% to $460.9 million

Net Income was $87.9 million, up almost $1 billion due to the loss taken on Depop in the third quarter of 2022

Active buyers on Etsy alone stand at 91.6 million, a second consecutive all-time high

Active sellers on Etsy alone are 6.7 million, the third large jump in a row compared to the previous quarter; numbers had been stagnant through the end of 2021 and all of 2022 [Note that “active” means one charge or transaction in the past 12 months; many “active” shops currently have nothing for sale.]

Sales where the buyer and/or the seller was not in the United States were 47%, up from 43% last year, but most Etsy buyers are still in the US

Sales on mobile are now at 68%, up from 67% last year [this includes both the buyer app and mobile browsers]

The Economy, Pricing & the Consumer Appetite for Discounts

As you may have heard, the economy is not great, especially for lower-income households, and that affects certain products more than others. CEO Josh Silverman actually stated "the volatile macro climate is going to make it challenging for us to grow this quarter." Strikingly, both VP of Investor Relations Deb Wasser and CFO Rachel Glaser urged people to buy their holiday gifts on Etsy [which hit me as a bit desperate during an earnings call!]

However, households in US areas that average above $100,000 in yearly income are actually spending more on Etsy, and the top 10% of US households (by income) spent 20% more on Etsy this quarter than last year. Glaser pointed to this as evidence Etsy was doing fine, all things considered, and a better economy would once again lead to more growth. [That's a fair take based on that evidence; Etsy certainly is doing better than some other ecommerce marketplaces right now.] Is there an overarching plan if the economy doesn't improve? Investors weren't let in on any such plans during this call.

Despite all of this, sales were actually up a bit each month of the third quarter, while dropping in October. Glaser stated this matched US ecommerce trends. Non-US countries were up 7% this quarter, including the UK, Germany and France, continuing the trend of bigger international growth.

"In this economy, we are seeing that mass merchants who sell essentials and whose brands stand for low prices and deep discounts are generally gaining e-commerce share broadly at the expense of most others." Hence, as I pointed out last quarter, Etsy is leaning into discounting and stressing affordability to try to drive sales. This includes at least 3 approaches:

offering discounts paid by Etsy, such as the "GET5" coupon and the $10 off of $40 orders promotion. The former drove orders and paid for itself; the latter did not. They will continue to test these types of offers.

promoting sales that sellers already run, such as through links on the home page and through emails. [This would seem to include the lengthy holiday sale that Etsy is pushing, with at least 25% off.]

giving sellers more data on pricing, including when and how to put items on sale. They touted the [mostly useless] pricing tool as part of this plan, since "our sellers don't have pricing departments, giving them insights into things like how best to price each item and how or when to use promotions. So we need to be the ones to provide those insights and be their advocates."

They also talked a lot about the fact regular Etsy prices can be affordable. [It may be difficult to convincingly present that position to prospective buyers. Spinning shopping on Etsy as buying direct from the maker with no "middlemen" is a bit rich, considering Etsy is the middleman, taking an ever-larger cut in the past few years, through fee increases, Offsite Ads charges we didn't have to pay before 2020, and ever-increasing margins on Etsy Ads.]

In short, consumers are very price conscious right now, and Etsy is aiming to provide them with what they want.

Search - Branching The Biggest and Most Generic Queries

As they have been discussing for a few years now, one of Etsy's biggest goals for search is to better narrow down large searches, which currently produce an overwhelming number of results [a fact not helped by the continuing growth in seller numbers and Etsy adding items to results that don't have the search terms anywhere.]

They are now happy with the relevance of large searches - "[w]e've made a ton of progress on relevance" - [even though smaller searches can be quite poor, as I discussed last quarter], so they aren't going to focus on that as much going forward. Instead, they are finally testing better ways to offer multiple branches from large searches, or "open-ended head query items" [head searches are the opposite of long tail searches, so this is only being done in a small percentage of the total unique queries overall].

Here is the example given in the call, from a test ran recently:

Slide 6 from Etsy's 3rd Q earnings call, © Etsy; shows a test on breaking down a generic search into more specific ones.

This version had multiple rows of top items in specific narrower searches, before the full search results appeared further down the page, which led to a lot of scrolling. However, I am not seeing that version of the test any more when I check. I am seeing this one instead:

Search for "tree" on Etsy, November 3, 2023.

Note that the normal search results are much higher up the page with this one, plus you can see the 4 different options to narrow the results down without having to scroll. While the 4 sub-topics look like they might be categories, clicking on them simply leads to a search using all of the terms, i.e., a search for "tree home decor" instead of a search for "tree" filtered to the Home Decor category.

Note that Etsy plans that these options will ideally include personalization and contextualization, and are also likely to feature more "quality" items [which so far seems to mean items that have the Etsy's Pick badge in other areas, even though that hasn't happened in this type of test, or at least not that I have seen up until now].

Other changes in search mentioned include "utilizing ML [machine learning] models designed to determine the visual appeal of items and incorporating that information into our search algorithms." [It's hard to say how far they have gotten in testing that versus using it across the site; often these types of musings during calls turn out to be works in progress instead of live algorithm factors. I am trying to formulate a few tests on this, though, so stay tuned!]

Enforcing Etsy Policies To Entice More Shoppers

Etsy is finally aware of the negative image it has in some circles, and is making a big deal out of how it is now enforcing the rules and removing more handmade violations. "Handmade policy takedowns are up over 120% for the third quarter" sounds great [but they didn't mention that the overwhelming majority of their takedowns - roughly 95% - are wrong, and that innocent sellers' businesses are damaged when this happens.]

Because the job of cleaning up handmade violations is so overwhelming to program bots for, they are now approaching it by trying to deactivate the most visible items first, and claim that "we've nearly cut in half the percentage of visits where a buyer comes across a violating listing." [This explains the glut of long-time sellers complaining that their best sellers have been deactivated for handmade violations. Etsy is going for the items with good quality scores first, and as I have noted, they do a poor job of distinguishing real violations from legitimate listings. Aiming to remove non-handmade items from the biggest searches etc. first is a good idea, but you would need competent programing and quick human review to do this fairly and effectively, and Etsy has neither. By the way, despite promising in late September to review all handmade bot flags within 48 hours or reinstate them, and to deindex listings from search rather than deactivate them entirely, they are still not doing that.]

One of the investment group reps said they had seen an improvement in enforcement, and asked how much it was affecting sales. Silverman replied "I'm also proud to say that we are seeing no deleterious effect to GMS from that. People don't come to Etsy wanting mass-produced product, and we're finding that as we do even more to suppress those listings on the site, the site experience only gets better." [In other news, I am not at all proud to say that the packaged snack seller who is violating Etsy's gift basket policy by selling mass-produced foods in cardboard boxes is still on Etsy, and is now a Star Seller, despite me reporting them twice in 2 1/2 years. Since the corporation isn't removing this stuff - which sells well - I am not surprised that the gross marketplace sales have not been affected yet.]

Purchase Protection and On-Time Delivery Guarantees

As shown at the top of this post, Etsy's recent changes to the Purchase Protection Plan - officially stating that eligible orders arriving after the last estimated delivery date will be fully refunded after a case is opened - are a key part of the holiday marketing plan in the United States only, even though the policy applies worldwide.

Slide 9 notes that over 98% of orders were delivered on time in the US last holiday season [but of course sellers could enter their own custom delivery windows then, which is no longer possible in the US or the UK]. The slide did not note if that included items where tracking doesn't always get updated on Etsy, such as envelopes with Pitney-Bowes labels, or services Etsy doesn't program the tracking for. Were those part of the late items, or were they not included at all? We just do not know.

[Remember, if your order qualifies for seller protection, Etsy is the one who pays the refund, not you. They've been doing this for over a year now. Of course, some countries and classes of items are less likely to quality for seller protection, largely due to shipping and tracking differences. Review how seller protection works if you are concerned.]

Advertising

One of the most interesting parts of the call was both Silverman and Glaser blaming Temu and Shein for running massive ad campaigns that were not sustainable if they wanted to be profitable. They explicitly stated Etsy may reduce the spending on Offsite Ads if the other companies are driving bids up higher than they are worth, and also said they are increasing paid social media as one way to compensate. [So if you rely on sales from Offsite Ads, watch those number in the next few months.]

Overall, Etsy spent more on marketing/advertising this quarter than the previous year, up 9% to $161 million. As part of that, new commercials will come out in the UK and the US for the holidays, while Etsy tried TV commercials in Austria and Switzerland during the quarter.

"Etsy Ads was the primary driver of [services revenue] strength as we optimized our XWalk functionality to better value potential listing conversion and pricing into our ad ranking system." [Since I don't use Etsy Ads any more, I can't test this at all. They've previously said they incorporated listing prices into the search algorithm, but my testing demonstrated little effect. This is something I will test in search again.]

Miscellaneous

Etsy alone has added nearly 1 million sellers over 3 quarters after that number being relatively flat for a year, and Silverman says they've done nothing to go after those new folks. More people selling on Etsy was attributed to economic factors [but I suspect AI availability is also involved, as the tutorials for setting up an AI-generated shop on Etsy are all over the web now. Note this increase means that while gross marketplace sales have been roughly flat this year, the average amount per seller has dropped.]

Etsy spent around $1 million covering the October bills of sellers affected by war in Israel and Gaza.

Depop had an excellent quarter; "GMS and revenue both grew double digits on a year-over-year basis with growth in active buyers sparked by strong new buyer growth in the U.S." Reverb was down a bit, but kept ahead of other musical instrument businesses.

Silverman has mentioned that Etsy isn't the first place many people think to shop for certain types of items over several different calls now. For example, "Only 12% of buyers will name Etsy top of mind as the place to shop for gifts." They don't seem to have any updated numbers showing how they've been improving that situation. [It's time to go after that "enormous opportunity", Josh!]

I wish I could report there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but just waiting for the economy to improve is probably not the best way to increase sales. Yes, economic factors are a big part of Etsy's sales stagnation, and Etsy is doing better than many of its competitors, but they are going to have to present some new plans soon if they expect to keep investors happy.

Don't be surprised if there are major site changes in 2024, because this can't continue.