2fatguysff

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Moves you NEED to make RIGHT NOW to help you win your Fantasy League

All the research is over. You've finished your draft. You love your roster. Right? You should, you just drafted it. Maybe you got sniped on your favorite mid round target. Maybe you got sniped multiple times. But you still drafted guys that you believe you can win with. What now?

During this short layoff between the end of the preseason and the season opener, I'm here to help.

First, make sure you set a week 1 lineup. This sounds like simple advice, but every year I'm in a league and one of my opponents has failed to set their lineup so it is a freebie. Don't let this person be you.

Second, and this is important, don't make panic trades. You drafted a team of players you like. So did everyone else in your league. Why should you make a trade before you have had a chance to see how your team does?

As much analysis and research goes into predicting what these players are going to do, it is an inexact science. So, your favorite prognosticator said you missed out on some value. It doesn't mean that the guy you drafted won't perform just as well, or even better. You drafted your guys for a reason, lets see how they perform.

Now after Week 1 has come and gone, decisions may need to be made. But between your Draft and Week 1, my advice is the same as Aaron Rodgers famous advice to Packer fans...R-E-L-A-X

So, what moves do you need to make right now to help you win your league? None. Other than remembering to set a Week 1 lineup of course.

[2fatguysff]

WR Draft Strategy

Okay, I get it. Everyone know that we need to draft WR early and often this year. But, does everyone know which WR to target where? Or why, we should be higher on some guys than we are on others? Hopefully, this can help you alleviate some of those question marks.

Why are WR the way to go early in drafts this year? The answer, quite simply is this, the NFL has become much more of a passing league. WR are simply more consistent scorers than RB currently. While there are some exceptions to this rule, it is accepted basically as fact.

So, who do we target, and when? Well in the first round the names are pretty well known. Jefferson, Chase, Kupp, Diggs, Hill, and Lamb. The second round is a little murkier. Davante Adams and AJ Brown for sure, but fewer people know of Amon-Ra St Brown outside of the dedicated fantasy world. A couple of other guys in this range would be Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.

Further down the draft, the names become less important than the situations. My recommendation is this. Find and target WR that are primary targets in high powered offenses. The teams here would include the Chiefs, Chargers, and Seahawks.

It is said that WR is incredibly deep this year, and there is some truth to that. I would argue that while the position is deep, it is not deep at elite level scorers. For this reason, regardless of your overall strategy, I highly recommend coming out of your first 4 rounds with at least 2 high end WR targets. This will offer you the easiest path to success in your draft.

As always, please follow me on Twitter at @2fatguysff and if you have questions, don't hesitate to reach out!

[2fatguysff]

Handcuff Strategy

In my last article I talked about RB Strategy as we head into our drafts. This article is one that I think ties in very well with that one.

Handcuffing is a strategy that involves drafting the direct backup to your star player, so that you are still locked into the performance of that situation. This is most often a strategy that people attribute to RB. When a star RB goes down in an offense that utilizes the RB very well, you are still going to get good performances out of the backups.

Most recently this was shown in Tennessee when Derrick Henry went down and D'Onta Foreman stepped in and performed very well. Last year as well when the Panthers traded CMC away, and Chubba Hubbard and Foreman(again) had great seasons.

Now, I am a believer in the handcuff strategy, but not in every instance. Not every stud has a clearly defined back up, and some situations are player dependent. This year, there are a few RB that I think handcuffing makes a lot of sense.

Derrick Henry is one. He is a prime candidate due to the Curse of the 370, and the fact that we know that his back up is Tyjae Spears.

The next candidate is Bijan Robinson. If Bijan gets hurt (god forbid) we know that Tyler Allegeir is going to be the guy.

The next candidate might be one that is unexpected. The next name is Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews is a great example of a guy who has a direct back up, who will step into the same role, in Isaiah Likely.

CMC is the last name that I will list here. While his situation is a little murkier, Elijah Mitchell will be the next man up in the primary role. While guys like Deebo Samuel will also see an updated role, Mitchell is the primary beneficiary.

If you have any questions on other potential handcuffs, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter(X) at @2fatguysff

[2fatguysff]

RB Strategy

Why are we talking about running backs? Wide receivers are the way to go this year in our drafts right? Well, yes, kind of. While a lot of strong rosters can be built by focusing on the wide receiver position, it is still important to understand how and when to draft running backs. In many cases, the names are not what is important. It is the strategy that is important.

The first RB strategy that I will present is the "en vogue" Zero RB strategy. While I am not personally a fan of this strategy, I will admit that it is possible to build a strong roster this way because of the heavy focus that most are putting on WR this year. This strategy has you spend your first 5-6 rounds drafting WR/TE, and potentially even QB, before you draft your first RB. What this strategy accomplishes is this, you are attempting to build positional advantages at other positions, while hoping to hit on high upside RB's later in the draft. Some very good RB targets for this strategy are, Dameon Pierce, James Cook, and James Connor.

The second RB strategy, and the one that I have personally been using in most of my drafts is the Hero RB strategy. This strategy has you draft one high end RB early, and then waiting several rounds before you take another. The primary targets for your hero RB would be guys like: Nick Chubb, Christian McCaffery, Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson. The reason I like this strategy is very similar to the reason that people like the Zero RB strategy. Because so many people are drafting WR early this year, RB value gets pushed down, and you are able to get quality RB later than you should.

A third RB strategy that I have seen this year is what I would call, the Bully RB strategy. This strategy would be the zig to everyone elses zag. While all your leaguemates are drafting WR, you spend your early rounds drafting RB. With this strategy you will focus on building your positional advantage at the RB position early, and focus on getting high upside WR targets later in the draft. You could almost call this the Zero WR strategy. This could be a great strategy this year, as long as you hit on your high upside WR targets.

These are what I consider to be the three primary RB draft strategies this year. Now, that you have them, I hope that you are able to utilize them effectively. But, I leave you with this piece of advice. Do not be so tied to a draft strategy, or draft plan, that you are unable to adapt to what your draft brings. Every draft is different, and your strategy may get blown up by what your leaguemates choose to do. Fantasy drafts are very fluid, and you need to be able to adapt on the fly to what you see.

Good luck on your drafts this year, I hope this guide helps!

[2fatguysff]

2023 Fantasy TE Rankings

Travis Kelce

Mark Andrews

George Kittle

Dallas Goedert

TJ Hockenson

Kyle Pitts

Darren Waller

Evan Engram

Chigoziem Okonkwo

David Njoku

Pat Friermuth

Dalton Kincaid

Cole Kmet

Greg Dulcich

Sam LaPorta

Dalton Schultz

Tyler Higbee

Gerald Everett

Mike Gesiki

Juwan Johnson

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2023 Fantasy RB Rankings

Christian McCaffery

Jonathon Taylor

Austin Ekeler

Saquon Barkley

Bijan Robinson

Nick Chubb

Josh Jacobs

Derrick Henry

Tony Pollard

Travis Etienne

Najee Harris

Breece Hall

Kenneth Walker III

Rhamondre Stevenson

Aaron Jones

Miles Sanders

JK Dobbins

Joe Mixon

Dalvin Cook

Cam Akers

Jahmyr Gibbs

Dameon Pierce

James Conner

David Montgomery

Isiah Pacheco

D'Andre Swift

Rachaad White

Khalil Herbert

James Cook

Jamaal Williams

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2023 Fantasy WR Rankings

Justin Jefferson

Jamarr Chase

Tyreek Hill

Cooper Kupp

Stefon Diggs

Davante Adams

CeeDee Lamb

AJ Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Garrett Wilson

Chris Olave

Jaylen Waddle

Tee Higgins

Amari Cooper

Devonta Smith

DK Metcalf

Keenan Allen

Deebo Samuel

Terry McLaurin

DJ Moore

Tyler Lockett

DeAndre Hopkins

Drake London

Chris Godwin

Kadarius Toney

Brandon Aiyuk

Christian Kirk

Michael Pittman Jr

Mike Evans

Jerry Jeudy

Treylon Burks

Rashod Bateman

Diontae Johnson

Christian Watson

Calvin Ridley

Jahan Dotson

[2fatguysff]

2023 Fantasy QB rankings

Patrick Mahomes - Mahomes continues to be the gold standard for QB play. He has consistently been the top QB, and I expect him to give another solid performance this year

Josh Allen - Allen is a fantasy goldmine. He gives both air yards, and solid amount of rushing upside. He makes the Buffalo offense tick.

Justin Herbert - This may come as a surprise to many, but I expect a huge year from Herbert. The addition of Kellen Moore as the new OC means a lot of passing for this offense. The weapons around him are great, so he should have a huge year.

Joe Burrow - I could easily have put Burrow higher on this list, but I expect him to give you another outstanding fantasy performance this year. He won't give you a ton on the rushing side, but his passing numbers will be more than sufficient to carry you.

Trevor Lawrence - The second year in Pederson's system will give us increased performance for "The Chosen One". I expect him to provide us with an MVP like season, and that will equate to an outstanding fantasy season as well.

Jalen Hurts - Last year's league winner comes in a little lower on my list than he does on many others. While I expect him to provide plenty of production, I do expect him to be scaled back a bit on the rushing side. This will hurt his overall fantasy production.

Lamar Jackson - The former MVP will be looking to have a bounce back season. With Monken in as OC, I expect Jackson's passing numbers to be the highest of his career. While he will run, I expect it to be much more situationally.

Justin Fields - Fields burst onto the scene last year with his rushing performance. This year brings some significant personnel changes to the Bears offense, and that should be nothing but a boon for his production. With an improved OL and better weapons on the outside, he should be able to give solid passing numbers in addition to his rushing upside.

Deshaun Watson - Personally, I don't want him on any of my ranking lists, but from purely a fantasy production standpoint this is where I have him slotted in. I expect him to be better than he showed last year, but I'm still not completely sure he will ever be what he was before the suspension.

Dak Prescott - Losing Kellen Moore will hurt his production, but I still expect him to play better than he showed last year. The addition of Brandin Cooks will help this offense. If Dak cuts down on the turnovers he could easily outperform his ADP.

Aaron Rodgers - The change of scenery will probably be good for Rodgers. The weapons around him are solid, and if he can return to his MVP like form, he could provide solid fantasy production this year

Tua Tagovailoa - With the weapons around him, and the offensive scheme he is in, I wanted to put Tua higher on this list. Unfortunately, the injury risk around him forces me to slot him in lower due to my belief that he will miss games.

Russell Wilson - Sean Payton will make a large impact on this offense, and I expect Russ to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. With plenty of weapons at his disposal, he will provide plenty of fantasy upside at his current ADP

Daniel Jones - The second year in Daboll's system should prove to be beneficial for Jones. While they added plenty of options in the WR room, I'm not sure how much they really improved there. If Waller can stay healthy, he provides a solid option, and I expect him to be a team leader in receiving.

Jared Goff - The Detroit offense put up plenty of points last year, and I think they improved this offseason. Bringing Marvin Jones back will provide a nice safe option, and the addition of Gibbs and LaPorta also give plenty of options as well.

Geno Smith - While this will continue to be a run first offense, Geno showed a great command of this offense last year, and I think he can be slightly better this year. The WR room is very talented, and offers plenty of options for QB production.

Kirk Cousins - I struggle with Cousins this year. Even though he has the best WR in the league at his disposal, the rest of the team isn't very good. He might easily outperform this ranking, but I think there is too much risk for me to put him any higher.

[2fatguysff]

Colts new QB

The more I dig into the Colts offseason, the more I think there are two options here. Either the Colts are going to end up with the 4th best QB in the NFL Draft, or they are gearing up to try and take a big swing at Lamar Jackson. I don't think there is any in between here. Ballard has been spending the offseason clearing this years cap number. This usually indicates a big offer to someone. The only person still available in free agency that could justify such a move is Lamar Jackson. Getting Lamar is the kind of move that he needs to make in order to save his job. If the offer that the Colts present doesn't contain enough of a poison pill, the Ravens will match the offer sheet, and the Colts will be forced to draft a QB. Ballard is delusional if he thinks that he will get his choice of guy at 4. QB's are going 1 and 2, and everyone knows the Colts need a QB, and if there is a team that needs a QB, they will jump the Colts and trade to 3 to ensure that they get their guy. The Colts standing firm at 4 ensures that they will get the 4th best QB. If Ballard had guts, he would make the move to 3 to ensure that he gets his guy. That is...unless his guy has been Will Levis all along.

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More NFL fans need to be paying attention to this RB prospect. His name is DeWayne McBride, and he is going to be a productive player in the NFL. Possibly for your favorite team! Do yourself a favor and start liking him now!

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2 WR prospects that I am trying to understand

So there are two guys in the #NFLDraft that I find incredibly similar, and don't understand why so many analysts have such different views of them. These guys are Jordan Addison and Marvin Mims. At the Combine, Mims was bigger, faster, and more explosive. The agility scores were essentially the same. During their college careers, Addison had the benefit of playing with elite level QB play, while Mims did not. I think this is the main reason for the production scores being as different as they are. If you swapped Mims for Addison, I think he not only equals the production score that Addison had, I feel like he could surpass it. Even on tape, I don't see why scouts are higher on Addison than Mims.

[2fatguysff]

NFL Business Season

Here at 2 Fat Guys, we love the business season of the NFL. This is when teams are built, and from a fantasy perspective, this is where winning rosters are formed. The smartest fantasy football players pay close attention to everything that happens during the "offseason". Everything matters. We are quickly moving from coaching carousel, to free agency, and soon we are moving into the NFL Draft. Each one of these impacts your fantasy football roster building. We love discussing these things, and hope to help guide you to new ways to build your next, or your first, championship roster. In addition, we will offer advice for making smart bets during the season as well.