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Democratic Power Rankings after the First Debates

Here’s my non-scientific, punditry-only power rankings for the Democratic nomination. I have ranked people in terms of their likeliness to win the nomination, not in terms of my support for them. I would vote for an indicted ham sandwich if it were nominated by the Democratic Party, so any snarky comments are purely for your entertainment. Top Tier 1) Elizabeth Warren: The Liz Warren train has left the station. She’s already out-polling Bernie and with an assist from Harris, she’s got Biden in her sights. Don’t sleep on Liz Warren. She’s the smartest of all the crew. She has demonstrated her political savvy. She’s got the Lizmentum. I would love to see her debate Trump. 2) Kamala Harris: Before the debates, I think Liz Warren stole most of the oxygen for any candidate who wasn’t Biden or Bernie. Sen. Harris is an even better public speaker than Obama and has the most political skills of anyone in the pack. She also wants to be perceived as a criminal justice reformer due to her background. I think she’d make a great President. We’ll see if she gets some Kamalamentum. 3) Julian Castro: Castro’s shown himself to be a formidable public speaker. As the name-recognition of the whole field increases, Biden and Bernie’s support will dissipate, creating room for a few more candidates in the top tiers. Castro certainly showed that he has the chops to be in that group. 4) Corey Booker: Booker’s side-eye of Beto was a great moment. Also, on the campaign trail, Booker set up Kamala Harris to murder Joe Biden on national television. He’s a realistic candidate now, but he’s got a lot of baggage. 5) Jay Inslee: His laser-like focus on climate change is the only rational position to have given that climate change will likely kill us all in the scope of a few decades unless we take radical action. He’s the only cis-hetero white man who deserves to be on the stage.. On the bubble 6) Tulsi Gabbard: Her opposition to endless war is also the only rational foreign policy position to have. That said, she doesn’t always come across as totally rational. She’s a good speaker and she’s got some excellent positions. I would just like to know that she’s not compromised by Russia somehow. 7) Pete Buttigieg: Mayor Pete has demonstrated several times now that he doesn’t get it when it comes to race in America. I think he will struggle to connect with the African-American community, which could be fatal in the Democratic 2020 primary. He should run for Senator from Indiana. Even if he loses, it will help down-ballot candidates. 8) Bernie Sanders: Sanders did it first, but he didn’t do it best. His rebranding of left-wing neoliberalism as socialism is creative. However, he mostly borrowed the rebranding of any reasonable centrist policy as socialism from Republican attack ads. Tulsi and Warren are already out-Bernie-ing Bernie. He’s already a Senator, which is a useful thing for a progressive to be. 9) Joe Biden: Your time’s up. I’m sorry. Joe simply doesn’t have the brains or the political savvy to keep up with this crew. His poll numbers will continue to dump and he’ll probably drop out in early 2020. Joe Biden should retire. Not a realistic winner 10) Kristin Gillibrand: She’s a great senator who has worked hard to get to this stage, but she doesn’t have a constituency. She’s not as smart as Warren, as savvy as Harris, or as good of a self-promoter as Bernie. She deserves praise for pushing Al Franken out of the Senate. She doesn’t have the chops to go the distance in this field. Good thing she’s already a Senator. 11) Andrew Yang: Yang has a constituency and a brand. His resume just doesn’t look like that of a serious candidate to many voters. He’s smart and I’m glad he’s putting great ideas into the public sphere. He should move to a state with a seat that’s up for grabs and run for Senator. I would suggest he take on Susan Collins in Maine. 12) Amy Klobuchar: I think she makes a great Senator from the great state of Minnesota. I would encourage her to stick with it. Minnesotans love boring, passive-aggressive people! 13) Bill De Blasio: He should probably just stick to his day job, or he’s liable to lose it. Hasta la victoria, siempre, comrade! 14) Marianne Williamson: She reminds me of a very famous person who gained notoriety, media interest, and political power by going on TV and saying crazy things. I only hope the Democratic electorate isn’t as foolish as the Republican one. 15) Steve Bullock: He should run for Senate from Montana.  He was not in the debates, but did better than the six below who were. 16) John Hickenlooper: He should run for the Senate against Cory Gardner from Colorado. 16) Michael Bennet: He should stay as a Senator from Colorado.

17) Seth Moulton: He should run for Senator from Massachusetts if Liz Warren wins. He was not in the debates, but did better than the four below who were. 18) Joe Sestak: He should run for office in Pennsylvania. He was not in the debates, but did better than the four below who were. 19) Beto O’Rourke: He should run for Senator from Texas again, this time against John Cornyn. He’s good at that. He’s not good at Presidential debates.

20) Mike Gravel: He’s good at being online. Why not run for Senator from Alaska? He was not in the debates, but did better than the three below who were. 21) Wayne Messem: He should run for literally any political office Florida. He was not in the debates, but did better than the three below who were. 22) Tim Ryan: He’s a perfectly acceptable U.S. representative for Youngstown, Ohio. He debated on Wednesday and should not have. Yikes! These guys? 23) John Delaney: He should think about running for Governor of Maryland in 2022 or doing literally anything else with his life. Looking like Bill Dauterive from King of the Hill can’t help.  He debated on Wednesday and should not have. 24) Eric Swalwell: Being a U.S. Representative from the Bay Area in California is a reach for this guy. He should focus on doing that job better.  He debated on Thursday and should not have.

[gopowerank]

I’m Back from Vacation

Here’s your power rankings: 1) Kamala Harris - She’s shown consistent improvement in the Politico weekly tracking poll. Plus she’s leading the field in the betting markets. Donald Trump is reportedly terrified of her. She has managed the early criticism of her prosecutorial past fairly well. She’s the candidate to beat. 2) Corey Booker - He’s shown consistent improvement in his polling numbers. He is handsome and a dynamic speaker. However, he is too cheesy and Obama-esque. Voters get tired of a president’s style. I predict that he’ll peak too early. 3) Amy Klobuchar - Her numbers were so small before, that her massive improvement is probably due to increased name recognition. That said, having Buzzfeed drop the “secret” that she is a terrible boss was a savvy move to control the narrative. She is the most underrated candidate in the pack. 4) Kristen Gillibrand - Her polling growth is impressive, but has slowed. Also, Klobuchar is eating up a lot of the white lady oxygen. 5) Julian Castro - He had one amazingly huge number in the Emerson poll, but overall he’s not on people’s radar. He needs to get himself back in the news cycle. 6) Sherrod Brown - He did well in the Emerson poll, and he’s registering on the radar. He’s a tried and true competitor, and he is going to give everyone else a run for their money. However, it’s not clear where he gains specific traction in the Democratic primary electorate. (A previous version of this post confused the polling for Sherrod Brown with Jerry Brown. The editor apologizes for the error.) 7) Joe Biden - On paper, Joe Biden is the frontrunner in the polls. However, he’s been losing ground on almost every poll and he hasn’t formally declared. Plus, lest we forget, he’s bad at running for President. 8) Bernie Sanders - Bernie’s holding steady or losing a small amount of ground in the polls. That’s not where he needs to be if he really wants to run. Ultimately, I think he’s not going to run, given the crowded field with many competitive candidates to his left. 9) Beto O’Rourke - Beto peaked right after the midterms. However, losing a Senate race is not a good enough resume to become President. His numbers are in free fall. 10) Elizabeth Warren - Sen. Warren peaked right after she announced. She has excellent ideas. However, she simply does not have the political poise and horse sense of Harris or Klobuchar. Plus, the white lady vote is going to be pretty widely distributed. 11) Tulsi Gabbard - This was not the most ideal campaign launch for the Iraq War veteran and Congresswoman. The fact that Julian Castro is already out-polling her is a disaster for her campaign. 12) Pete Buttigieg - Pete hasn’t been polled yet, so he only gets a courtesy mention here. This openly gay Afghanistan war vet has an outside shot. He is going to struggle to get name recognition with such a weird name. 13) John Delaney - Just look up mediocre white male and you will find his picture. At least he’s actually running for President. 14) Michael Bloomberg - If Bloomberg runs, he’ll run as a Democrat. If he runs as a Democrat, he won’t win the primary. Therefore, Michael Bloomberg, who is good at acquiring and maintaining wealth, probably won’t run for President. If he were actually going to run, I’d put him at 10 on this list.

[gopowerank]

Dark Horse BUYS

So, PredictIt still has the same list of candidates as it did the last time I looked. However, there are a number of candidates for whom no shares are currently available who, IMHO, have at least a non-zero chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Here they are, listed in order of plausibility:

Eric Garcetti: 

PROS: 

He is the mayor of Los Angeles, the second largest city in the country, which has more a larger population than 20 states. 

He is actively running for president. 

He was born and raised in a political family and knows what running for office is like. 

He has Mexican, Jewish, and Italian ancestry.

CONS: 

He’s not as well known as a lot of other people in the primary. 

Kamala Harris is going to eat up all of his oxygen in California.

Tulsi Gabbard: 

PROS: 

The telegenic Hawai’ian U.S. representative has a high profile. 

She is an Iraq War veteran who came home to represent the good people of Honolulu on the City Council and in the U.S. House. 

She is a woman of color and a practicing Hindu. 

She really wants to run for President. 

Due to her heterodox positions in the past, she has some crossover appeal to conservatives.

CONS: 

Gabbard was against equal rights for LGBTQ before she was for them. 

She has been a little too cozy with Putin and Assad. Also, she is a big fan of Hindu nationalists. 

She does not have the world’s greatest reputation for constituent service. 

Michael Bloomberg: 

PROS: He’s a billionaire who was a mayor of a city that is more populous than most U.S. states.

CONS: He used to be a Republican.

Richard Ojeda: 

PROS: 

This very telegenic West Virginia State Senator has the right background. 

He is actively working to campaign for the nomination. 

Like Gabbard, he is a proud veteran. 

He has way more cross over appeal to Trump voters who are rightly feeling deceived. 

He is a lifelong Democrat who voted for Trump in 2016 and now feels betrayed.

CONS: 

He hasn’t been very thoroughly vetted, so we don’t know what he has said or done in the past that can be used against him. 

The very thing that gives him crossover appeal with Trump voters is what will probably doom him in the primary. 

He’s just a state senator.

Eric Holder: 

PROS: 

He was the attorney-general and he’s got a lot of rich and powerful friends. 

He wants the nomination and he is actively campaigning for it.

CONS: 

He is below the median for telegeny. 

He is not a good public speaker. 

It was too easy for the right-wing conservatives to get under his skin.

Terry McAuliffe:

PROS:

He was the governor of large state.

He has lots of political connections, particularly to the Clintons.

He’s a good fundraiser. 

CONS:

Nobody is nostalgic for the Clinton era any more.

He has the charisma of used office furniture.

Sherrod Brown:

PROS:

He’s a U.S. Senator from Ohio who has won multiple elections deep in Trump territory.

He’s a passionate and fiery left-wing voice.

CONS:

He probably doesn’t want to run.

If he loses his Senate seat, his replacement is appointed by a Republican.

Bob Casey, Jr.:

PROS: He’s a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania who knows how to appeal to Trump voters.

CONS: 

He’s been in the Senate for more than 12 years and most people don’t know who he is.

He is bald.

John Hickenlooper:

PROS:

He was the governor of Colorado.

He won the governorship when Colorado was very purple.

CONS:

He had the chance to be very supportive of legal weed and he wasn’t as supportive as he probably should have been.

He announced a plan to end homelessness in 10 years 17 years ago.

Julian Castro: 

PROS: 

He was a big city mayor and a cabinet secretary in the Obama administration. 

He is actively campaigning for the nomination. 

Before Beto came on the scene, he was the favorite of the Obama nation. 

He is reasonably telegenic and he can give a decent speech. 

He can talk about growing up as a Hispanic in south Texas.

CONS: 

After all these years in high profile positions, most people still don’t know who he is. 

He’s only okay at speech making. 

The Obama team abandoned him as soon as a shinier object (Beto) came along. 

He has an identical twin brother, so what if they pull some weird twin shenanigans?

Howard Schultz:

PROS: He is a telegenic, PR-savvy, self-made billionaire, whose brand is anti-discrimination and coffee (Starbucks).

CONS: See PROS. 

Jeff Merkley:

PROS:

He is a U.S. Senator from Oregon, whose replacement would be nominated by a Democrat.

He got some internet cred for visiting one of Trump’s baby jails and exposing the conditions there.

CONS: 

He has the charisma of a pail of warm water.

He is weird-looking.

Bill de Blasio:

PROS:

Like Bloomberg, he is mayor of a city that is larger than most U.S. states.

He won re-election after a rocky first term.

He is a fairly reliable left-wing mayor.

CONS:

He had a rocky first-term.

He’s not very skilled at reading the room.

Tom Steyer:

PROS:

He’s a billionaire.

He wants to impeach Trump

He has a pretty-enough face.

CONS:

He’s never run for office.

Pete Buttigieg:

PROS:

He is gay and has been on the forefront of equal rights for LGBTQ people.

He was a popular mayor of a medium-sized town in Indiana, which is key Trump territory.

CONS:

His name is pronounced “BUTT-ee-Jeez.”

Most people will pronounce his name “booty gig.”

Nobody knows who he is.

Mitch Landrieu: 

PROS: 

This guy can give a good speech. Just watch his viral video about tearing down monuments to traitors. 

His mom was a U.S. Senator and he grew up around politics. 

He probably wants to be president.

CONS: 

He’s politically savvy enough to know that this isn’t his cycle. 

Also, he’s got an interesting face.

Tim Ryan: 

PROS: 

He is somewhat telegenic. 

He’s been a U.S. representative from Ohio, key Trump territory. 

He has been fairly thoroughly vetted. 

He clearly wants to run for president.

CONS: His other main resume item is writing a book about “real food.”

Eric Swalwell: 

PROS: 

He is somewhat telegenic. 

He is a U.S. representative from California. 

He has been somewhat vetted. 

He is actively running for president.

CONS: This mediocre white man thinks he can be president.

Seth Moulton: 

PROS: 

He’s reasonably telegenic. 

He is a U.S. representative from Massachusetts. 

He is a Marine Corps veteran.

He won an insurgent campaign to defeat an incumbent in a primary in 2014. 

He has been somewhat vetted. 

He is known as an independent.

CONS: He’s probably not running and he wouldn’t have any insider support.

Angelina Jolie:

PROS:

She’s one of the most famous people in the world.

She has a history of supporting human rights across the globe.

She knows how to present herself on camera.

CONS:

She just got out of a contentious divorce, where she got outplayed in the PR game.

Running for president sucks, and she’ll find out that out relatively quickly.

Oscar De La Hoya

PROS:

He is good at boxing.

He is probably? popular with Mexican-Americans.

He is traditionally handsome.

CONS:

He’s probably a rapist.

He’s an alcoholic.

He just got a DUI in 2017.

[gopowerank]

Way Too Early - PredictIt Picks

Okay, it’s way too early to start 2020 speculation and PredictIt election market probably has the best way too early data available out there on the race. So let’s do this. Everyone else is ranking these shares as “Buy,” meaning a candidate is underrated on PredictIt, or “Sell,” meaning a candidate is overrated. So, I’m going to follow lemming-like into the breach. However, I am also going to add the coward’s choice of “Hold,” meaning a candidate is correctly rated. 1) Beto O’Rourke at 19 (cents/percentage chance of getting the nomination). This is a SELL. Beto is a moderate white male from the South. He is not the candidate black women are looking for, who most definitely will be the decisive Democratic primary voting bloc in 2020. 2) Kamala Harris - 17 - BUY - Kamala Harris has the skills, the resume, and the political networks to go all the way. Also, the California presidential primary, her home-state primary, has been moved way up. 3) Joe Biden - 17 - SELL - Joe hasn’t even announced he is running yet. Also, he has terrible campaigning skills. He is undisciplined and prone to say incredibly offensive things. Also, he’s a creep. People love him when he has a job in the government, but they do not like him when he is asking for a job in government. 4) Bernie Sanders - 16 - SELL - Bernie may have protested for civil rights in the 1960s, but his understanding of race hasn’t evolved at all since then. Black people as a group did not prefer him in 2016. His track record on saying racially offensive things has not improved since then. 5) Elizabeth Warren - 10 - HOLD - Warren is an enigma. She is smart and fierce, but sometimes she is clueless and tone deaf, particularly on issues related to her family ancestry. In a state that overwhelmingly leans Democratic she underperformed that partisan lean in both of her Senate elections. That said, a 10% chance that she’ll win is probably decent. I see her doing well in New Hampshire and Iowa. 6) Amy Klobuchar - 10 - BUY - When the dust settles, Klobuchar will be the dark horse candidate left standing. She is very popular in her very purple home state of Minnesota. She is at least as smart and fierce as Elizabeth Warren, but is even better at running for office. Also, she’s next door to Iowa. She’s the only real competition Kamala has, and a VP slot is a likely hers if she wants it. 7) Cory Booker - 9 - HOLD - Booker has not declared and I predict that he’ll bow out before the primaries begin. Like Biden, he is an undisciplined candidate and he is too much of a radical centrist. However, he’s a strong fundraiser, so that always helps. In a field full of moderates of color and female moderates, Booker will struggle to stand out. Also, there have been #MeToo rumors surrounding Booker. 8) Kristen Gillibrand - 7 - BUY - Gillibrand is a talented politician who is very popular in her home state. I think she’ll wash out pretty early in the primaries, but a 7 is way too low for her in this crowded field. 9) Oprah Winfrey - 3 - SELL - She’s not running and doesn’t want to be president. 10) Hillary Clinton - 2 - SELL - It’s time for her to officially retire. The fact that she has gotten less popular after winning the popular vote in 2016 is a big problem. 11) Chris Murphy - 1 - HOLD - Yeah, 1 cent is about right. 12) John Delaney - 1 - BUY - He’s actually running and he has a constituency. 13) Andrew Cuomo - 1 - HOLD - He’s a talented politician who decisively defeated a major insurgency from the left to retain the office of governor. In New York, he functions something like a god-emperor. Why would he give that up? 14) Mark Zuckerberg - 1 - HOLD - He’s a billionaire so I’d give him a one percent chance of winning the nomination. 15) Tim Kaine - 1 - BUY - He’s not going to win, but he wants this and he’s a moderately talented politician. 16) Dwayne Johnson - 1 - SELL - There is no way in hell that he would want the job of president. He can barely stand working with Vin Diesel, let alone Congressional Republicans. 17) Jerry Brown - 1 - SELL - Unlike most of the other politicians on this list, Brown is no longer interested in being president. He ran for President in 1992, and got a pretty good taste of how unpleasant it is. He can retire at the top of his game and spend time writing his memoirs.

[gopowerank]

The Media Will Not Be Able to Normalize Trump

The great concern of the day is whether the media will slowly acquiesce to the narrative that the two main political parties are two great equal and opposite forces that will battle each other into eternity. This, of course, would not be problematic if it were true. If political disputes really were more or less small disagreements about questions for which there was no good evidence, this would not be an issue.

However, in our country, we have one political party that is more or less a normal political party (the Democrats) and another that is simply opposed to politics (the Republicans). To confound matters, a plurality of the Republican electorate has managed to nominate a candidate who is ill-informed, grandiosely narcissistic, racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, authoritarian, and contemptuous of the possibility of his own error.

If the political press were to treat this as simply a horserace contest between two comparable evils, they would be morally wrong to do so. However, they will not be able to do so. All living Republican presidents, George H.W. Bush (41) and George W. Bush (43), have refused to comment on or endorse the presumptive Republican nominee. The most recent nominee, Mitt Romney, has done the same. A sitting Republican senator, Ben Sasse, has refused to endorse his own candidate. Many prominent religious leaders have attacked Trump or refused to endorse him.

Trump just went through a grueling primary process where prominent members of his own party and writers, thinkers, and journalists associated with his party frequently and regularly, on videotape, denounced Donald Trump in the very terms I described him above. The Republican National Committee is purging its ranks of any dissenters from its new regime, creating a large body of unbiased observers looking for work who can go on cable news shows and trash Donald Trump.

Donald Trump is not liquid enough to self-fund a general election campaign, which costs about half a billion dollars. The typical donors to such campaigns have publicly stated that they are not interested in funding Donald Trump. Republicans rely much more on the fundraising efforts of super PACs than Democrats. Having the blessing of the Republican National Committee without the support of wealthy industrialists is like getting an empty gift card designed to hold cash.

Donald Trump cannot help himself from making racist, sexist, xenophobic, and downright stupid comments. He has been advised again and again to cut this nonsense out, but has mostly failed to do so. As the country becomes less and less white, the bar for Donald Trump’s electoral success is raised. Additionally, the previous record-setter in obtaining the support of white people, Mitt Romney, also failed to win the presidency. As Donald Trump continues making racist, sexist, and xenophobic comments, he will also encourage turnout among people of color, women, and LGBTQ.

Donald Trump’s most famous policy proposals—the wall with Mexico funded by Mexico and banning Muslim immigration—are impossible, unconstitutional, or both. Donald Trump is a well-documented liar. His lies are so obvious and pathetic that it would literally insult the intelligence of any journalist, politico, or anyone who is not a rabid nationalist to defend them.

Politicians in the Republican Party on the same ballot who wish to be reelected will be presented with a Chinese finger trap. They can distance themselves from Trump and risk depressing turnout among all GOP voters and alienating Trump fans. Otherwise, they can embrace Trump and risk alienating moderates and independents who strongly dislike Trump. Also, Senate candidates who refuse to hold hearings on Merrick Garland are also basically endorsing Trump’s judgment.

Additionally, Trump is massively unpopular with suburban Christian whites, a crucial demographic for the GOP to turn out to the polls and win. The key to gerrymandering is “w,” or “wasted votes” which is the number of votes one earns in an electoral district over the number needed to win, generally anything above 50% + one vote. Rural and suburban areas of the United States generally already have low “w” for Republicans. Rural and suburban voters are generally 55% GOP and 45% Democrats. However, urban core areas have incredibly high “w” for Democrats. Urban core voters are generally 90% Democrats and 10% Republicans.

Therefore, the GOP has created tightly defined urban core districts that include mostly Democrats and diluted the rest of the urban vote into suburban districts. However, since these districts have a low “w” for Republicans, it means that the demographic assumptions about the electorate that went into planning these districts have to hold up. Generally, Republicans gave themselves about a 5 percentage point buffer zone in these districts. However, if a politician such as Donald Trump were so unpopular among a key constituency, i.e., suburban white Christians, as to suppress turnout past the buffer, it could mean a landslide electoral disaster for Republicans nationwide.

This is the equivalent of a disease that is perfectly evolved to destroy a cloned plant that has been planted across the world. Such a disease could lead to mass starvation and misery, particularly among the world’s poor. Donald Trump is the disease, the cloned plants are gerrymandered districts relying on suburban white Christians, and the Republicans are the population that needs to be fed.

Since gerrymandered districts are built in this manner both at the federal and state level, and most states hold legislative elections in 2016, this could be an extinction-level event for the Republican Party. Note that Charlie Cook has listed approximately 39 house seats in blue states occupied by Republicans that are at least theoretically competitive in 2016. The Democrats need to pick up 30 seats to flip the House, a pick up equivalent to what they accomplished in 2006 and half of what the Republicans picked up in 2014.

Ironically, it is the opposite gerrymandering of Democrats that helped bring Donald Trump to prominence. Since Democrats would want to spread their urban vote advantage into districts with suburban Christian whites, the Democrats created congressional districts in blue states that overrepresent Trump supporters and minimize the power of suburban white Christians. Since Republicans based their delegate allocation off of congressional districts that were gerrymandered by Democrats in this manner, they accidentally disenfranchised the one Republican voting group that could have actually stopped Trump.

[gopowerank]

What will the future of the Republican Party be?

Today in Vox, Amanda Taub has a great dissection of the Republican Party. She splits it into two halves, an authoritarian one and the other one. She associates the authoritarian half with Trump, and the other half with business interests. While I think there’s a fundamental truth to her analysis, I think she misses something more important going on. In continuity with the tripartite division of the current nomination race, I think the party is actually divided into three groups that are all authoritarian, but in different ways.

In fact, it turns out that the research suggests it is not just Trump voters who are authoritarians, but almost all Republicans. I think that Trump, Cruz, and Rubio actually represent each of these different types of authoritarianism fairly well. I think Kasich is struggling in the polls because he is not very authoritarian. Consider the Medicaid expansion in Ohio as exhibit A. If you think that Kasich has made the right decision to stay in the race, then Rubio dropped out a little too early. If Rubio had stayed in, he’d probably be beating Kasich fairly decisively.

The Trump-style authoritarians are generally white nationalists. These individuals are primarily motivated by racial and ethnic hatred. They want to withdraw from our increasingly pluralistic society and world. Their chief fear is not just losing their jobs, but losing their jobs to foreigners. They do not want to shed blood for foreigners and they do not want to trade with them. They do not even want to live with them. They would rather retreat to de facto white-only neighborhoods and workplaces. They are not regular church-goers, but nominally identify as Christian and fear others who identify as some other religion. These Trumpists fear women’s equality primarily because they see women as biologically inferior to men. However, the Trumpists think that rich people pay too little in taxes and they reject cuts to the social safety net. Trumpists simply want black people to get cut off from government benefits, like during the early part of the twentieth century.

The Cruz-style authoritarians are generally practicing Christians. They also fear those who identify as non-Christians. They also strongly fear women’s and LGBTQ equality, but not because they think women are inferior. Instead, they believe that gender roles are God-given and immutable. They strongly believe that those who question such roles are questioning God, himself. They do not recognize that walling themselves off into white neighborhoods perpetuates racism. Instead, they think that they are providing a safe environment for their children away from sex, drugs, and rock and roll. They think that God rewards those who work hard and charity is only truly good if it is voluntary. Therefore, they think that reigning in government is a matter of morality. Cruz-style authoritarians like free trade and foreign interventions, because they genuinely believe that this will make life better for poor, benighted people worldwide.

Finally, the Rubio-style authoritarians are wealthy business elites like the Koch brothers or business elites who would like to become like the Koch brothers. They see their success in business as earned in a secular way. They are nominally Christian, but generally believe that God helps those who help themselves. They genuinely believe that if government regulators would just leave them alone, they would be able to create a better world for everyone. They also believe that taxation is a form of government getting in their way. Therefore, they abhor the government social safety net, because they think that if everyone were to apply themselves as they did, everyone would become wealthy. However, they value inclusion and diversity in the workplace, because it is generally better for their bottom line, as study after study has shown. They also strongly value international trade for the same reason. Additionally, they like international interventions, because they want to get their hands on the mineral resources of newly “liberated” countries.

So the authoritarian Republicans are thus divided between which powerful group in society should exercise its authority when their interests come into conflict. They fight over whether power should be exercised by white people as a group, Christian churches, or American business elites. All of these attitudes are fundamentally undemocratic. However, it is noteworthy that white nationalism is the one that most resembles democracy, in a funhouse mirror sort of way.

The fundamental problem for Republicans is that the Trumpists and the Cruzians are fundamentally opposed to compromise with the Democrats. Therefore, this makes politics fundamentally impossible for the Rubi-ites when there is divided control of government. However, at the state level, where Republicans are increasingly exercising single-party control, the compromise between the three groups is relatively easy. Since trade, immigration, and foreign interventions are simply beyond the ken of state governments, those are not flashpoints for conflict. The practicing Christians dominate, because theirs is actually the compromise position between the two for most state politics. This makes the Christian right seem more powerful than it actually is, because it simply represents an accommodation between racists and business interests.

That said, the Republican Party has a ticking demographic time bomb. Any attempt by business interests to compromise on identity politics with the Democrats will be shut down by the white nationalists through the threat of tearing apart the Party. This will ensure that as the country becomes increasingly less white, Republicans will be competitive in fewer and fewer elections. The Republican Party we know will slowly wither away within a few decades, since the children of Republicans are less and less likely to vote Republican or to agree with either of these three groups. Also, since white nationalists are poorer than the other two groups, they are also dying at much faster rates.

Therefore, within twenty years, the Republican Party will probably remain as authoritarian as it ever was, but it will mostly cater to the concerns of practicing Christians and business elites. However, what it means to be a Christian will fundamentally change as younger generations reshape it. Most Christians will probably become basically committed to feminism and LGBTQ inclusion and equality. Also, since all but the most elite of the business elites would actually be better off with socialism anyways, they will eventually make their peace with a moderately larger social safety net and increased tax burden.

This means that I am not afraid of truly evil men like Paul Manafort, whom Trump just hired to help him secure the nomination. Manafort may be very effective in today’s GOP world of authoritarian politics. However, the country has changed so much in the last few decades that his style of politics will likely never succeed again. Democracy has gone viral. It has literally changed our DNA. The longer democracy stays around, the harder and harder it is going to be for authoritarians to win in politics. The longer pluralistic societies exist, the harder and harder it is going to be for nationalism to survive.

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Why Donald Trump’s Campaign Shows that Trump’s and Sanders’ View on Money in Politics is Wrong

Donald Trump started out this campaign as a heterodox independent. Of all the heterodox opinions that he used to hold, he’s mostly abandoned them except his position on free trade. Trump has not received donations from billionaires, other than himself. He has raised barely any money by political standards. Yet he has sold out almost every position he has ever had for Republican political orthodoxy.

First, Trump suggested that taxes on the rich were too damn low. After pressure from the GOP policy consultants he hired to make him look more serious, he issued a tax plan that guts taxes on the rich.

Second, Trump praised planned parenthood and framed himself as a recent convert to his pro-life position. Now he says that women who get abortions should be personally punished.

Third, Trump was in favor of gay marriage. Now he’s opposed to it.

None of these things required any money to change hands. All they required was for the drastic social pressure of trying to jockey for place and position to have its effect on Trump’s outcomes.

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#CruzSexScandal

Okay, this one was a little too perfect.

Heidi and Ted Cruz almost never live together during their time being married. Heidi is in New York while Ted’s career in Texas takes off. Then once Heidi finally makes it to Texas, an Austin City police officer finds her wandering on the side of an expressway in a suicidal condition. Then, almost as soon as they were reunited in Texas, Ted Cruz runs for the U.S. Senate, wins a seat, and moves to D.C. without Heidi.

Cruz stood out among the GOP candidates for not attacking Trump, and only went hard after Trump until he absolutely had to. Even then, his attacks on Trump are relatively muted.

However, Trump responds by insinuating that Cruz is ineligible for the presidency due to his Canadian birthplace. He even finds a few people to file some lawsuits challenging Cruz’s eligibility for the ballot.

However, Trump has some dominant finishes in primaries and sets himself up as the prohibitive favorite. A few weeks ago, a reporter from a pro-Trump media outlet, Breitbart, says he’s got some dirt on Cruz. Breitbart has an excellent track record of publishing half-truths and falsehoods. However, the same reporter says that the higher-ups have nixed his report.

Also, a lot of other journalists talk about “the thing,” which is something that is damaging to Cruz. Additionally, Cruz picks a plucky yet inexperienced young woman as his national spokesperson. Totally unsubstantiated rumors abound that Cruz and the spokesperson are carrying on an affair.

All of the lawsuits against Cruz’s eligibility fizzle out and the Republican establishment begins to reluctantly endorse Cruz.

Someone makes an ad which is just a glossy picture from a magazine for which Melania Trump willingly posed and presumably whose publication she previously authorized. Trump then interprets this as a direct attack on his wife by Cruz, even though it was done by a Super PAC that doesn’t even support Cruz. Trump then uses this as a pretext to threaten to “spill the beans” on Cruz’s wife.

Then Cruz gets a commanding victory in Utah and looks like he could realistically win enough delegates to get the nomination.

Then, all of a sudden, the National Enquirer gets a scoop that Cruz has had affairs with five women. The editor is a close friend of Donald Trump and that outlet has given him favorable coverage in the past. The National Enquirer has broken some major sex scandals in the past.

Donald Trump just pwned the Republican Primary.

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The Algorithm Is On Vacation

Okay. I’ve decided to suspend operations on my excel spreadsheet, because the race for the nomination is essentially over. Here’s the deal. Hillary Clinton is in a more commanding position than Barry O. in 2008. She’s the presumptive nominee. Hopefully, Sanders supporters will keep participating in the down ballot elections that actually make a difference in policy. If not, then they’re just a bunch of hypocrites who want free stuff. However, if Sanders supporters actually run for office and support like-minded candidates, they could change the political equation in this country.

In terms of the elephants, Trump is going to win the nomination. He had the best possible outcome last night. A win in four states, plus a decent second in Ohio to its incumbent governor. This means that Kasich will stay in the race for a few more go rounds, splitting the anti-Trump vote, and preventing Cruz from actually beating Trump. Even if Trump falls a little short on the delegate count, denying him the nomination would mean the end of the GOP as an organized institution, and would surely cause Trump to run as a third party candidate anyways.

It turns out that the elite of the GOP were never actually in charge. They were much like a magician in a children’s cartoon who discovered a magical amulet. The magician tries to wield the magical amulet, but it is too powerful for him to control and ends up destroying the magician. The amulet in this particular analogy is white Christian nationalism. White Christian nationalism will probably always be with us until the end of the age. But at least now we can more easily call bullshit when it is wielded by a politician.

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Rubio should have dropped out while he had the chance. Trump is probably going to win Florida and all its delegates. I give Kasich more than even odds of taking Ohio. However, the problem is that Kasich winning Ohio is just going to keep Kasich in the race longer, which minimizes the likelihood of the only chance the GOP has to stop Trump. That is, to rally behind Cruz.

Since Illinois has the weirdest delegate allocation I’ve seen yet, it’s not going to be a big prize, even if Cruz can come from behind to win it. Missouri is a bigger prize for a Cruz upset. However, Missouri and Illinois are both open primaries, which have generally favored Trump over Cruz.

If Trump gets two or fewer states, he’s in real trouble. If Trump gets four states and Kasich gets one, Trump is probably going to win the nomination. However, ironically, if Trump wins Ohio, that could actually make Kasich drop out, which would put Trump up against his greatest disadvantage, a one-on-one fight with Cruz.

Cruz is going to face a lot of tough states in the next few weeks, but he’s got the advantage on the last day of primary voting, June 7. If Cruz can stay within striking distance and Kasich and Rubio both drop out before June 7, Cruz may at least be able to place his name in nomination at the convention. 

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The GOP primary will probably be essentially over on Mar. 15.

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These are the totals for all the primaries so far that have released raw vote information.

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International Women of Mystery Day

Today could not be better primed to be a big Trump win. Most of the poor white voters who would otherwise be supporting Bernie Sanders in Michigan have switched to the Republican Party and will probably be voting for Trump in large numbers. Kasich’s last minute surge to third place in Michigan would be comical if the GOP was not hoping it might stop Trump. 

Mississippi is right between Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee and is likely to go to Trump just like those states. Even if Cruz dominates in Idaho that doesn’t really upset Trump’s delegate math. Idaho is a primary state and not a caucus state like Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, and Maine, which Cruz won. Also, note that Idaho is neither Texas nor next door to Texas, like Oklahoma, which are the other states Cruz won.

Finally, whoever wins the Hawai’i Republican Caucus will receive the palm leafs of Queen Lilioukalani and a handful of delegates. There is no polling and I have no idea which one these four clowns is going to win the state. But I guarantee you that only Trump can spare the delegates.

Both Hillary and Trump will probably win Michigan and Mississippi by a comfortable margin. If this does not happen, then tomorrow you will be buried in an avalanche of takes so hot that it might cause the internet to become so volatile that it melts a hole right through to the center of the earth. Idaho and Hawai’i are only in this thing today because they are both technically states and the letter “i” forms the beginning or end of their names.

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Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii get out and vote today!

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The Idylls of March

Okay, both the GOP and Democratic primaries are almost wrapped up. Despite Cruz’s big wins on Saturday, Cruz’s biggest problem is that his best states, i.e., the states that voted for Huckabee in ‘08 and Santorum in ‘12 are mostly behind us. 

Trump will probably win all of the big states up for grabs tomorrow and on the 15th. This includes Michigan, Ohio, and Florida. Cruz is weak in all these states. Kasich probably doesn’t have enough cross border appeal to win Michigan. Rubio is still looking at a 13 point deficit in Florida. Only Kasich is in striking distance in Ohio, but we haven’t had a poll there since February 20. 

Ohio is a big winner-take-all state, but it’s not enough to deny Trump the nomination, particularly given the favorable calendar for Trump going down the stretch. Trump is likely to win several fairly big winner-take-all states and modified winner-take-all states (some delegates awarded by district vote), including Florida, Illinois, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California. The last time Trump faced a modified winner-take-all primary in South Carolina, he won every single district even though he only got 32.5% of the vote.

The anti-Trump movement seems to have cut somewhat into Trump’s margins in the last few primaries. However, this doesn’t look like enough to make a difference in any state other than Ohio. Also, the anti-Trump vote was far stronger in caucuses. However, there are fewer and fewer caucuses the farther out the vote goes.

Basically, the game gets progressively harder for anyone other than Donald Trump as it moves toward the finish line. If Rubio can’t beat Trump in Florida, there will be tremendous pressure for him to step aside, particularly if Kasich wins Ohio outright. However, even if Kasich wins Ohio, it is almost mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination.

This primary is the Kobayashi Maru scenario for the GOP. The most likely result, an outright Trump delegate clinch, will ensure defeat and expose Republican ideology as a con that has never been accepted by GOP voters themselves.

A Cruz victory, the only realistic way to stop a Trump nomination, would also probably go down to defeat in the general. Although Cruz is ideologically acceptable to the GOP elite, he is not personally acceptable to the GOP elite. Also, if Cruz lost, this would show that Republican ideology is not acceptable to general election voters.

The only plausible way for Kasich or Rubio to get a nomination is through a contested convention, which almost certainly would cause Donald Trump to run as an independent, thereby fracturing the GOP vote.