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Don’t hold your breath. Iran Israel ceasefire is fragile at best

By James M. Dorsey

Don’t hold your breath. US President Donald J. Trump’s silencing of Iranian and Israeli guns is fragile at best.

Speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of a NATO summit, Mr. Trump admitted as much.

“Can it start again? I guess it can, maybe some day soon,” Mr Trump said.

The fragility was built into the halt to the hostilities from the outset, starting with differences over whether the halt constituted a ceasefire.

Iran rejects the notion of a ceasefire, even if it has agreed to halt the hostilities.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, please go to

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US strikes against Iran raise more questions than answers

By James M. Dorsey

The United States bunker-busting air strikes against three Iranian nuclear sites raise more questions than answers, fuelling a war of narratives as the world waits for what comes next.

This weekend, President Donald J. Trump celebrated the strikes as “a spectacular military success” in televised remarks, even if it was unclear what that means and despite US intelligence and, by implication, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) assessments that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons.

Mr. Trump said the targeted sites – Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan – had been “completely and totally obliterated.”  

Taking a more cautious attitude without contradicting Mr. Trump, US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine said damage assessment showed the targeted sites had sustained “severe damage and destruction” but would not confirm that they had been “obliterated.”

Instead of listening to the US intelligence community and the international agency, Mr. Trump echoed Israeli claims that Iran was months, if not weeks, away from possessing nuclear weapons, raising the question about who the president listens to, the US intelligence community or Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

On Sunday, Mr. Trump suggested that he shared Mr. Netanyahu’s desire for regime change, hours after his Vice President JD Vance and Secretaries of State and Defence Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, insisted that the US strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, not the country’s regime.

“It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!,” Mr. Trump said on Truth Social, his social media platform.

Mr. Trump’s seeming embrace of regime change could shape how Iran responds to the US strikes.

While the administration declared that, at the very least, the strikes had significantly set back Iran’s nuclear programmes, Iranian officials asserted that the United States had failed to destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile, including some 410 kilogrammes enriched to 60 per cent purity.

The officials said authorities moved the uranium to safe locations in advance of the US strikes.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/us-strikes-against-iran-raise-more

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Israel’s defense doctrine aims for emasculation, not deterrence

By James M. Dorsey

Hamas’ October 7, 2023, paradigm-shifting attack has prompted Israel to change its defense doctrine with devastating consequences for the Middle East.

No longer satisfied with operating on the principle of deterrence, involving regular strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon, militant Palestinian groups in the West Bank, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Iranian targets in Syria and the Islamic Republic, and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Israel’s new defense doctrine focuses on militarily emasculating its opponents.

The new doctrine, focused on kinetic rather than negotiated solutions, has driven Israeli military operations since the Hamas attack broke a psychological barrier by successfully breaching Israeli defences and invading Israeli territory.

Hamas and other Palestinians killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in the attack.

Israel’s subsequent decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia and political movement, with little regard for the cost to innocent human lives, offered proof of concept for a strategy that involves killing top leaders and destroying military infrastructure based on the Jewish state’s military and intelligence superiority.

In addition to the devastation of Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas militarily and politically and the weakening of Hezbollah, Israel has destroyed much of the Syrian military arsenal and infrastructure since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Now, it is targeting Iran’s military command, missile and launcher arsenal, and nuclear facilities.

“The unexpected degree of success…reduced Israeli wariness about launching a similar campaign against Iran, despite expectations that a severe Iranian response might still be forthcoming,” said Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum.

Alarmingly, Israel’s newly conceived dominance-driven military assertiveness has fueled public anger and widespread anticipation of war across the Middle East.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israels-defense-doctrine-aims-for

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The Cost of Escalation: What the Iran-Israel Clash Means — James M. Dorsey Explains

To listen to the podcast go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/the-cost-of-escalation-what-the-iran

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By James M. Dorsey

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is caught between a rock and a hard place. He risks being doomed if he does and doomed if he doesn’t.

Despite causing significant damage and Israeli casualties with its missile barrages, Iran is incapable of winning a war against Israel.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/iranian-supreme-leader-khamenei-is

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Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei is doomed if he does and doomed if he doesn’t

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Trump's browbeating negotiation tactics won't work with Iran

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Is Israel against a negotiated resolution to Iran’s nuclear programme? – JMD on TRT

James M. Dorsey, senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, tells TRT World that Israel isn’t seeking a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear programme. Instead, he says, Israel wants the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

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The MAGA Split on Iran - JMD on Parallax Views

On this edition of Parallax Views, Middle East analyst James M. Dorsey, proprietor of The Turbulent World w/ James M. Dorsey blog/Substack, returns to the program to discuss what he considers a paradigm shift moment for the Middle East: last night's Israeli strike on Iran. What does it mean? https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/the-maga-split-on-iran-jmd-on-parallax

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Trump’s conundrum: Israeli attacks against Iran

By James M. Dorsey

Beyond shifting the paradigm of Middle Eastern geopolitics, Israel’s dramatic strikes against Iran are likely to shape the outcome of a battle within the Trump administration over US policy towards the region.

The battle, with Israel at its core, pits Make America Great Again proponents against pro-Israel figures in the administration, with Iran constituting a major battlefield.

Putting Iran on the front burner, Israel’s attacks have presented US President Donald J. Trump with his most serious foreign policy conundrum to date.

Mr. Trump’s problem is foreign and domestic.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/trumps-conundrum-israeli-attacks

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Israel strikes Iran -- JMD media appearances

Please watch and listen on https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israel-strikes-iran-jmd-media-appearances

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Israelis favour forever war, just want hostages released first

By James M. Dorsey

To say Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is a highly controversial figure in Israeli politics is, at best, an understatement.

Yet, his notion of a forever war against Palestinians resonates with a significant segment of Israeli public opinion, despite differences over strategy, tactics, and the prioritisation of the war’s goals.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israelis-favour-forever-war-just

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Gambling on Trump: Is Netanyahu grasping at straws?

By James M. Dorsey

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may be grasping at straws in his hope that US President Donald J. Trump will continue to back his refusal to end the Gaza war and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The prime minister is placing a risky bet that Mr. Trump’s recent suggestion that he is focussing on Iran nuclear negotiations, China, and Russia rather than Gaza means that the continued rise of Make America Great Again protagonists within his administration will not shift the president’s attitude towards the war.

Speaking about his feud with billionaire Elon Musk, Mr. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "Honestly, I've been so busy working on China, working on Russia, working on Iran... I'm not thinking about Elon Musk.”

By implication, Mr. Trump suggested that he was also not thinking of Gaza by not mentioning the war as part of his agenda.

To be sure, by doing so, Mr. Trump was allowing Mr. Netanyahu to continue the war.

Nevertheless, Mr. Netanyahu could be on shaky ground with pro-Israel figures in Mr. Trump’s administration losing battles to Make America Great Again proponents.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/gambling-on-trump-is-netanyahu-grasping

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To counter Hamas, Israel backs Gazan criminals

By James M. Dorsey

Israel’s throttling of aid for Gaza is as much about weaponizing food and other essential goods as it is about eventually installing a post-war Palestinian administration empathetic to Israeli concerns.

Similarly, Israel’s refusal to end the war intends to create space for an alternative to Hamas to emerge as the group’s popularity in Gaza hits rock bottom.

So is Israel’s sidelining of the United Nations, despite its decades of experience in delivering aid to Gaza and extensive infrastructure in the Strip.

An outspoken Palestinian American Hamas critic who lost 33 relatives in the Gaza war, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, believes that Israel is following the example of the United States in Iraq, where it funded and trained Awakening Councils to counter Al-Qaeda.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video click, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/to-counter-hamas-israel-backs-gazan

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Extremist soccer fans display Israeli society’s brutalisation

By James M. Dorsey

Critics have long argued that Israel’s 58-year-long occupation of Palestinian lands conquered in the 1967 Middle East war has brutalised Israeli society.

Israel’s 20-month-old assault on Gaza and the Israeli public’s attitudes towards Gazan Palestinians serve as Exhibit A of the degree of brutalisation.

So does last week’s pummelling of two Palestinian public bus drivers by militantly racist fans of soccer club Beitar Jerusalem, a far-right darling, after a Palestinian soccer player, Zaki Ahmed, secured the 2025 Israel State Cup title for his team, Hapoel Be'er Sheva.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/extremist-soccer-fans-display-israeli

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Gaza ceasefire talks walk a tightrope

By James M. Dorsey

The latest Gaza ceasefire negotiations are as much about halting Israel’s assault on the Strip and ensuring the unfettered flow of humanitarian aid into the territory as they are about Israel and Hamas preparing for a blame game if the talks fail to achieve a truce.

Israel and Hamas, despite US optimism, remain as far apart on core issues -- an end to the 19-month-long war, a complete Israeli withdrawal, Hamas and Gaza’s future, and who will administer the post-war Strip – as they were at the outset of the latest round of ceasefire talks.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/gaza-ceasefire-talks-walk-a-tightrope

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The Trump administration’s ‘brain trust’ aims to change the paradigm of US-Israeli relations

By James M. Dorsey

The Trump and Netanyahu administrations may diverge on immediate issues, including Iran, Gaza, and Syria, but are weighing a long-term strategy to strengthen Israel militarily while making it less dependent on the United States.

To read further, participate in the poll, listen to the podcast, or watch the video, please go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/the-trump-administrations-brain-trust