jonrak

[jonrak]

The Greatest Threat to Mankind: A letter to 8 Billion People

[jonrak]

The Greatest Threat to Mankind: A Letter to 8 Billion People

These unprecedented times have left us with unprecedented dangers. We face the potential annihilation of our way of life and possibly, the extinction of humanity. The warming of the Indian Ocean has imperiled our brothers and sisters in East Africa, Bangladesh, and India, who are facing deadly flooding as well as locusts that have grown to such numbers that would eclipse major cities, decimating their farmland and subsequently threatening their food supplies.[1]

Drought and extreme heat are fueling a record breaking number of wildfires while lack of substantial rain is threatening the water supply for millions of Americans on the west coast. As we speak, more than 25% of the U.S. is reeling from the most severe case of drought.[2] The heat trapping of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitric oxide can no longer be ignored, much less denied. Carbon dioxide emissions from our dependence on fossil fuels are increasing 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last ice age. Due to the rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, the acidity of our oceans has increased by more than 30%. Satellites have detected that the Arctic Sea ice, as well as the once-gleaming glaciers from the Alps, Andes, Himalayas, Rockies, Alaska, and Kilimanjaro are disappearing. According to NASA, in the year 1900, the planet’s temperature was -.08° C. Now the planet’s temperature is over 1° C.[3]

I would be remiss if I were to say that the picture is anything but dire. At this rate, the global temperature is expected to surpass 1.5°C around 2040 and 2°C by 2050. A 2°C warming would undoubtedly lead to a billion people displaced and the scale of destruction is currently unquantifiable but there is a high likelihood that human civilization, as we know it, would end.[4] We face the potentially grim reality of inadequate food production compounded by skyrocketing prices. We could witness the desertification of entire regions, frequent flooding for some nations and wildfires for others; chronic water shortages and mass migrations of displaced peoples, which would overwhelm already stressed infrastructures. Armed conflict over waning resources would be inevitable and even the nuclear armed nations would not be immune. Government instability and chaotic fallout is not hard to imagine. We risk the loss of thousands of years of historical advancements and achievements of mankind, as well as the loss of our future and our children’s future.

Our best-case scenario is in fact, not very good news at all. Even if we were to stop immediately the emissions that are heating up our planet, we are already on course- like the Titanic- to hit that proverbial iceberg of 1.5° Celsius. According to the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the best we can hope for is that we brace ourselves accordingly and hope it stops there. The panel predicts the devastating news that coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C but there would be significantly larger losses (>99%) at 2°C. The panel also reports that of 105,000 species studied, 9.6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates are projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range from global warming of 1.5°C. This is compared to a staggering loss of 18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates’ geographic range from global warming of 2°C. Climate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth are projected to increase with global warming of 1.5°C and increase further with 2°C.[5] Either way, this Titanic is going to crash, and it’s up to us to determine our speed when it happens. The Paris Agreement’s strategies are deemed not aggressive enough on carbon dioxide emissions to prevent the global temperature rising above 1.5°C.[6] In other words, the captain of our proverbial ship, still has the speed at full throttle instead of reverse.

To survive this less-than-ideal situation (the understatement of the century) would demand “a global mobilization of resources on an emerging basis, akin to a wartime level response.”[7] We must immediately reduce emissions and stabilize the levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, not as an ethnic group, not as a creed or religion, or as a country, but as human beings who are staring into the face of total extinction and refusing to go gentle into that good night. There is real hope, but it is not found in denial or in the heated discourse over semantics (e.g., climate change vs. global warming) to name our shared enemy which has already breached the gates. It is knowing that we have the ability to lower the temperature even after it reaches that dreaded 1.5° C. If we institutionalize potentially disruptive but sustainable pathways to eliminate these gases, we can possibly return to lower temperatures and regain control before we sink.

In the following section I will discuss key actions that need to be considered seriously and implemented.

It will not be sufficient to solely reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero; CO2 will also need to be actively captured from the atmosphere. Leveraging photosynthesis may hold the solution. As algae grows, it removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by converting it to oxygen via photosynthesis. On average, one kilogram of algae utilizes 1.87 kilograms of CO2 daily, which means that one acre of algae utilizes approximately 2.7 tons of CO2 per day. For comparison, one acre of a 25-year-old maple beech-birch forest only utilizes 2.18 kilograms of CO2 per day.[8] We must invest in strategies that increase the rate of photosynthesis globally, including expanding the surface area of communities with fauna and algae. The cheapest way to remove excess CO2 is tree-planting. Two-thirds of human emissions can be potentially removed by planting one trillion trees in the world’s 1.7 billion hectares of non-used land with a cost of 30 U.S. cents per tree.[9] From reading the aforementioned, it should be clear that the cessation of deforestation is nonnegotiable or otherwise, we might as well all capitulate to an abysmal and likely torturous fate that is fast approaching.

Another viable option is the theoretical geoengineering technique called “enhanced weathering.” This involves the capture of CO2 indefinitely from the environment by the crushing and spreading of certain rock material (e.g., silicate) across large areas which then absorb the CO2 and convert it into bicarbonate, a benign molecule. This alkaline product can then reverse ocean acidification as well as improve crop growth.[10]

Methane is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas yet is significantly more powerful at capturing heat than carbon dioxide. Cutting methane emissions by almost half within the next decade would prevent a 0.3°C rise in the average global temperature by the 2040’s.[11] Comparatively, this would be considered the “low hanging fruit” in terms of low-cost implementations when juxtaposed to carbon dioxide reduction. Reduction strategies include improving the detection and repair of methane leaks at gas and oil facilities and flooding abandoned coal mines that leak gas. It includes the prevention of burning of fields after harvest and adjusting feed for livestock.[12] Also, focused attention and financial incentives should be allocated to the development of technology that converts methane gas from waste into energy.

While we make concerted efforts to slow down global warming, we must simultaneously plan for the inevitable consequences from the damage that has already been done. Increased attention and stewardship for the conservation of the species (e.g., bees) that we desperately depend on must be in order. Governments need to create and implement plans for the storage of potable water and foods, especially for those populations geographically at greatest risk. Another crucial action is the increased vigilance to prevent and combat wildfires in those regions commonly affected such as the western coast of the United States and Australia. This by far is not a comprehensive list of necessary steps but it is a reasonable start.

We, humanity, as well as the panoply of fauna and wildlife, face a fast-approaching existential threat. This is not a drill.

[1] VOX. (2020). Why locusts are descending on East Africa [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vo61TiAGwhk.

[2] John Keefe and Rachel Ramirez, C. (2021). The West’s historic drought in 3 maps. Retrieved 21 June 2021, from https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/17/weather/west-california-drought-maps/index.html

[3] Climate Change Evidence: How Do We Know?. (2021). Retrieved 21 June 2021, from https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

[4] Dunlop, I., & Spratt, D. J. (2019, May). A scenario approach THE AUTHORS. Existential climate-related security risk. https://www.academia.edu/40017142/Existential_climate-related_security_risk_A_scenario_approach_THE_AUTHORS.

[5] IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, (eds.)]. In press.

[6] Ibid, 5.

[7] Dunlop, I., & Spratt, D. J. (2019, May). A scenario approach THE AUTHORS. Existential climate-related security risk. https://www.academia.edu/40017142/Existential_climate-related_security_risk_A_scenario_approach_THE_AUTHORS.

[8] Polon, R. (2020, July 10). Not All Heroes Wear Capes: How Algae Could Help Us Fight Climate Change. The Aggie Transcript. https://aggietranscript.ucdavis.edu/not-all-heroes-wear-capes-how-algae-could-help-us-fight-climate-change/.

[9] Holloway, B. (n.d.). Top 5 ways scientists are trying to reverse climate change. Top 5 ways scientists are trying to reverse climate change | UPM Pulp. https://www.upmpulp.com/media/blogs-and-stories/stories/top-5-ways-scientists-are-trying-to-reverse-climate-change/.

[10] Beerling, D.J., Kantzas, E.P., Lomas, M.R. et al. Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands. Nature 583, 242–248 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9

[11] Maizland, lindsay. (2021, May 21). How Cutting Methane Emissions Can Move the Needle on Climate Change. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-cutting-methane-emissions-can-move-needle-climate-change?gclid=Cj0KCQjwxJqHBhC4ARIsAChq4asQ4lTvhMrvK_2RCnPENhMXbFZvOkXoyaaocAgnQd65blBgo94oj7IaAqZDEALw_wcB.

[12] Ibid, 11.