#IIASA

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from EcoWatch:

As the world works to stop global heating by ending the use of fossil fuels in accordance with climate objectives, ensuring that everyone on Earth has a decent standard of living is possible if the world quickly and decisively implements emissions reductions, new research has found.

The study, led by research scholar Jarmo Kikstra with the Energy, Climate and Environment Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), looked at energy scenarios that line up with both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

“With climate change intensifying and billions of people still lacking basic necessities, addressing both challenges simultaneously is not only possible but essential,” a press release from IIASA said.

The authors of the findings analyzed whether scenarios outlined in SDGs and the Paris Agreement provide enough energy for everyone on the planet to have essential services like cooling and heating homes, clean cooking, health care, education and transportation.

“Our goal is to understand what it takes to eliminate extreme poverty while also advancing climate action,” Kikstra said in the press release. “We’re not just talking about lifting people out of extreme poverty; we’re looking at futures with high development ambition, ensuring decent living standards as a minimum for everyone worldwide.”

Using the new DESIRE model, the research team compared energy scenarios that make sustainable development a priority with those that continue with past trends.

“One striking finding is that sustainable development scenarios significantly reduce the number of people consuming less than the minimum required energy for basic needs. Under these scenarios, the number of people that do not have enough energy to meet their basic household needs is projected to decrease by over 90% — a much faster rate of progress than what would be achieved by continuing current trends,” IIASA said.

The study highlights that emissions needed to support decent standards of living are much lower than total emissions.

“Our findings challenge the notion that eradicating poverty and protecting the planet are conflicting goals. In fact, the energy needed to ensure basic human dignity is small compared to what is currently consumed globally,” Kikstra explained. “Even so, such a sustainable development trajectory means growth rates in low-income countries are much higher than we have seen. It requires appropriate development efforts and international support.”

The study, “Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios: introducing DESIRE,” was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

[probablyasocialecologist]

"Part of the degrowth literature talks about how historically energy and emissions decoupling has not been fast enough, and uses this to argue for a degrowth strategy," says Kikstra. "We show that this is not a black-or-white debate. The nuance lies in the fact that also under degrowth strategies, forms of decoupling are necessary. But these are structurally different dynamics, which relate to a broad set of policies. A lot of new research is required to model such strategies, and we lay out different options to do so." "The results of the study suggest that fast emissions reductions in countries like Australia could be enabled in scenarios characterized by reduced or zero growth. Possibly even faster than in virtually all of the most ambitious mitigation scenarios described in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Scenario Database," says Bas van Ruijven, co-author of the study, research group leader, and principal research scholar in the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment program. The study also shows that reduced energy demand paired with lower GDP per capita lessens technological feasibility concerns by reducing the need for upscaling solar and wind energy and limiting future material needs for renewables as electricity generation stabilizes in the second half of the century.

[wachinyeya]

""

IIASA recently launched the Climate Solutions Explorer -- a comprehensive resource that visualizes and presents vital data about climate mitigation, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks arising from development and climate change.

The website utilizes the latest data and state-of-the-art models to assess future trends related to development- and climate-induced challenges. By offering up-to-date information on climate mitigation and impacts, the Climate Solutions Explorer aims to be a go-to platform for anyone interested in accessing the latest research on climate change and net-zero mitigation pathways.

The Climate Solutions Explorer is the result of a long-standing collaboration and contributions from various sources within and external to the ENGAGE project -- a global consortium consisting of nearly 30 partners, coordinated by IIASA and co-led by several other institutions. The project, which has been running since September 2019 and will conclude in December this year, aims to explore the feasibility of pathways that align with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.""

[moko1590m]

Automated Government、自動政府、の研究があるそうですが、現状と、今後の見通しをわかりやすく教えてください

ChatGPT said:

「Automated Government（自動政府）」は、AIや自動化技術を活用して政府の意思決定や行政サービスを効率化・最適化しようとする取り組みです。この概念は、デジタル・ガバメントやSociety 5.0といった構想の中核を成しています。内閣府ホームページ+3日立システムズ+3デジタル庁+3

🔹 現状：自動政府の取り組み

現在、完全な自動政府は実現していませんが、以下のような部分的な自動化が進んでいます。

政策立案へのAI活用：AIが政策の実行状況や成果を分析し、財政健全化や規制改革などの提案を行う試みがあります。 DLRI

行政手続きのデジタル化：電子申請やオンライン手続きの導入が進められ、行政サービスの効率化が図られています。

自治体経営の戦略的再編：人口減少時代に対応するため、合理的なサービス縮小や対話型合意形成の指針が提案されています。 株式会社自動処理

🔹 今後の見通し：自動政府の進展

今後、自動政府は以下の方向で進展する可能性があります。

AIによる政策提案の高度化：AIが複雑な社会課題を分析し、より精度の高い政策提案を行うようになるでしょう。

行政サービスの完全自動化：住民票の発行や税務処理など、定型的な行政サービスが完全に自動化される可能性があります。

デジタル・ガバメントの実現：政府全体がデジタル化され、国民とのインタラクションがオンラインで完結する社会が目指されています。 NTT Data Strategy

🔹 課題と懸念

自動政府の実現には、以下のような課題や懸念も存在します。

倫理的・法的問題：AIの判断に対する責任の所在や、プライバシーの保護などが問題となります。

技術的限界：AIの判断が常に正しいとは限らず、誤った判断が重大な影響を及ぼす可能性があります。

社会的受容性：国民がAIによる政府運営をどの程度受け入れるかが、実現の鍵となります。

自動政府は、行政の効率化やサービス向上を目指す一方で、慎重な導入と社会的合意が求められる分野です。今後の技術進展とともに、倫理的・法的な枠組みの整備が重要となるでしょう。

https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.hitachi-systems.com&sz=32

情報源

4o

You said:

その研究を行っている主な機関を教えてください。

ChatGPT said:

「Automated Government（自動政府）」の研究は、世界各国の政府機関や研究機関で進められており、行政サービスの効率化や政策立案の高度化を目指しています。以下に、主要な研究機関とその取り組みを地域別にご紹介します。

🇺🇸 アメリカ合衆国

1. National Artificial Intelligence Research Institutes（NAIRI）

概要：米国国立科学財団（NSF）が主導するプログラムで、全米に25のAI研究所を設立。

取り組み：AIを活用した政策立案支援や行政サービスの自動化など、政府業務へのAI応用を研究。 RoboticsBiz+2Wiley Online Library+2NSF - National Science Foundation+2

2. Federal Robotic Process Automation Community of Practice（RPA CoP）

概要：米国一般調達局（GSA）が運営するコミュニティ。

取り組み：100以上の政府機関から1,600人以上のメンバーが参加し、RPAの導入と運用に関する知見を共有。 U.S. General Services Administration

3. U.S. AI Safety Institute（US AISI）

概要：米国国立標準技術研究所（NIST）内に設立された機関。

取り組み：AIシステムのリスク評価と安全性確保を目的とし、政府のAI導入における信頼性向上を支援。

🇬🇧 イギリス

1. The Alan Turing Institute

概要：英国の主要なAI研究機関。

取り組み：政府サービスの84%がAIによって自動化可能であるとの研究結果を発表し、行政の効率化を提案。 ファイナンシャル・タイムズ

2. AI Security Institute

概要：英国政府が設立を計画している新たな機関。

取り組み：高度なAIモデルのアルゴリズムテストを監督し、AIの安全性と信頼性を確保することを目的としている。 ファイナンシャル・タイムズ

🇨🇳 中国

1. Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence（BAAI）

概要：中国政府が支援するAI研究機関。

取り組み：高度な言語モデルの開発を進め、行政サービスや市民生活へのAI応用を模索。

2. Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence（BIGAI）

概要：北京大学や清華大学と連携する研究機関。

取り組み：認知科学や発達心理学に基づいたAIの研究を行い、政府業務への応用を目指す。

🇦🇹 オーストリア

1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis（IIASA）

概要：国際的な独立研究機関。

取り組み：政策指向の学際的研究を通じて、気候変動やエネルギー安全保障などの複雑な課題に取り組み、政府の意思決定を支援。 ウィキペディア

🇩🇪 ドイツ

1. Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis（ITAS）

概要：カールスルーエ工科大学に所属する研究機関。

取り組み：技術評価とシステム分析を通じて、政府の技術政策や自動化戦略の策定を支援。 ウィキペディア

🇦🇪 アラブ首長国連邦

1. Technology Innovation Institute（TII）

概要：アブダビ政府が設立した研究機関。

取り組み：AI、ロボティクス、量子コンピューティングなどの先端技術の研究を行い、政府サービスへの応用を推進。 ファイナンシャル・タイムズ

これらの機関は、AIや自動化技術を活用して政府の効率化やサービス向上を目指す研究を進めています。今後も技術の進展とともに、各国で自動政府の実現に向けた取り組みが加速することが予想されます。

[marvincheung]

Biography

Marvin Cheung is a user researcher, startup advisor, and a thought leader in sustainable development, who specializes in delivering actionable insights in high-risk environments. Recognized for his ability to see around corners, he has been a featured speaker at the UN General Assembly Science Summit, and engaged diverse audiences at events by the Boards Impact forum, Chairman’s Network, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Cheung’s interest in interpreting and contextualizing data as a qualitative researcher led him to tech, where he advised and consulted for startups, one of which won a SXSW award. He has served as a co-director at the Center for Global Agenda (CGA) and a director at the Venture Strategy Group (VSG) at Unbuilt Labs since 2020. He has also served as a Global Diplomacy Fellow at the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) and an Inclusive Policy Lab Expert on SDGs and Strategic Planning at UNESCO.

In 2022, Cheung succeeded the advisor to four successive Directors General at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as Chair of the Global Consortium for Systems Research (GCSR). He began serving on the Advisory Board of the Lifeboat Foundation, dedicated to mitigating existential risks, alongside four Nobel Laureates in 2023. His international relations bestseller (Amazon U.S.) on system transformation methods, "5 Ideas from Global Diplomacy" (2024), develops a novel approach to solve grand challenges known as Transdisciplinary Systems Research. He is an external reviewer for the Johns Hopkins 2025 Graduate Venture Award, and a mentor at Yale's Tsai Center for Innovative Thinking.

Cheung holds an MA in Global Risk (Finance and Economic History) from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a BFA (Hons) in Art, Media, and Technology (maj. illustration, min. communications design) from the Parsons School of Design. He received advanced research training as a Departmental Visiting Student at the University of Oxford OUDCE Graduate School and a participant of the Oxford DPIR Spring School in Advanced Research Methods. He also completed Columbia Business School's Venture Capital Program for executives.

Rooted in Parson’s emphasis on creativity and innovation, Cheung has continued his contemporary art practice with a focus on chalk pastel drawings. During his time at Parsons, he was a student of pastel artist James Romberger, who is part of the East Village art canon alongside Jean-Michel Basquiat and David Wojnarowicz. Cheung remains a close friend of the Romberger-Van Cook family and stayed with the family for a few summers. Despite the East Village sensibility in Cheung’s art, he enjoys his life as an Upper East Sider and longboarding at Pier 76. He was a fashion week photographer and photographed supermodels such as the Hadids prior to his work in chalk pastels.

The trajectory of Cheung’s work reflects the critical influence of his advisors: Lauren Redniss (MacArthur “Genius” Fellow and Guggenheim Fellow) at Parsons, Sir Michael Leigh (former Director-General for Enlargement at the European Commission) at SAIS, and H.E. Amb. Dr. Yuriy Sergeyev (former Elected Member of the UN Security Council, Chair of the Sixth Committee on Legal Affairs, and Lecturer at Yale) at UNITAR.

A New Yorker at heart, Cheung was born in Hong Kong and currently resides in London with his 2-year-old Airedale Terrier Frederic.

“Mr. Cheung distinguished himself as an active fellow [at UNITAR] and a capable researcher" — H.E. Amb. Dr. Sergeyev

“[Cheung’s] work is captivating and gives us hope” — Charalee Graydon, Oxford Climate Alumni Network Chair of Trustees and Rhodes Scholar

“[A] thought leader” — Boards Impact Forum, the Nordic chapter of the Climate Governance Initiative, in collaboration with World Economic Forum

“Marvin Cheung is an artist unafraid to deal with massive complexities.” — James Romberger, professor and an East Village artist with works in collections such as the Metropolitan Museum of Art (the Met) in New York

[stephanieo85]

Gender equality is crucial for a climate resilient future, say researchers

[esseha]

Les Incertitudes des Points de Bascule Climatique : Un Avertissement pour l'Avenir

La persistance des politiques climatiques mondiales actuelles pourrait entraîner le basculement d’éléments critiques du système terrestre, selon une étude récente. Des chercheurs, dirigés par Nico Wunderling de l’Institut de recherche sur l’impact climatique de Potsdam (PIK) et Tessa Möller de l’Institut international d’analyse des systèmes appliqués (IIASA) de Laxenbourg, ont simulé différents…

[opdemontracker]

Drowning in waste: Pollution hotspots in aquatic environments - PHYS.org

An IIASA study explores waste management systems and reveals that achieving zero waste leakage by 2030 is unlikely, potentially jeopardizing related Sustainable Development Goals. The authors emphasize the need for global cooperation, particularly across four regions, to responsibly manage waste...

[ramtracking]

CO2 worsens wildfires by helping plants grow | UCR News | UC Riverside [ Wildfire ]

CO2 worsens wildfires by helping plants grow | UCR News | UC Riverside [Highlights] By fueling the growth of plants that become kindling, carbon dioxide is driving an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires,… Wildfires are a growing threat to the boreal north, especially under the rapidly changing climate. IIASA researchers modeled and analyzed… WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche…

[blog2social-dev-test]

Using Artificial Intelligence to Track Deforestation

While the first phase will focus on deforestation, IIASA plans to use the model for other environmental concerns where crowdsourcing would be applicable. Deforestation of the Amazon and other forest habitats is a major cause of climate change, as these rainforests are a key generator of oxygen and a sponge to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Tracking deforestation is a difficult process, especially in the Amazon which spans 5.5 million km, roughly the size of Australia. Satellite images are an excellent resource, providing researchers with a tool to check real-time changes, but sifting through thousands of images can be time-consuming. Enter SAS, which has partnered with the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) to build an artificial intelligence model to track deforestation at scale. “The urgency required to address these transformations requires the application of best of breed technology solutions,” said IIASA Director General, Albert van Jaarsveld. Read more here Originally published by: David Curry, April 28, 2020 RT Insights Read the full article

[wayti-blog]

"A survey of more than a million social media posts suggests that people feel more positive about nature's ability to solve climate change than human technology, according to new research published in the journal Global Environmental Change.

Researchers analyzing 1.5 million posts on X (formerly Twitter) using the latest artificial intelligence-driven language models found expressions of "disgust" and "fear" related to the term "geoengineering," which is often associated with radical technology such as spraying aerosols into the atmosphere or solar space sails.

But posts about nature-based efforts to protect carbon-storing ecosystems like rainforests, kelp forests under the sea and peat bogs offered more positive expressions such as "joy," according to researchers from the University of Cambridge, the Mercator Research Institute, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Boston University."

"Governments and global organizations need to consider how the voting public will engage with proposed solutions of climate action."

article

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from EcoWatch:

Current climate policies are putting the world at a high risk of critical Earth system components reaching tipping points, even if global temperatures return to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average following a period of overshoot.

However, a new study has found that, if global heating is quickly reversed, these risks could be minimized.

The human-caused climate crisis has the potential to cause a destabilization of large-scale elements of Earth systems like ocean circulation patterns, ice sheets and components of the global biosphere. In the study, the researchers examined the risks that future emissions scenarios and current mitigation levels posed to four interconnected tipping elements, a press release from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) said.

The research team determined the risks of tipping for destabilizing a minimum of one of four central climate elements: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Amazon Rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — the Atlantic Ocean’s main ocean current system. All four of these contribute to the regulation of the stability of the planet’s climate. Sudden changes to these biophysical systems can be triggered by global heating, leading to irreversible outcomes.

The report’s analysis explains how important it is to stick to the climate targets laid out in the Paris Agreement, while emphasizing that our current choices will impact the planet for centuries or even millennia.

“Our results show that to effectively limit tipping risks over the coming centuries and beyond, we must achieve and maintain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Following current policies this century would commit us to a high tipping risk of 45% by 2300, even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5°C after a period of overshoot,” said Tessa Möller, co-lead author of the study and a researcher with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)’s Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group, in the press release.

The researchers discovered that tipping risks become substantial by 2300 for several of the future emissions scenarios they assessed. If the average global temperature does not return to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 — even if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are reached — there will be a tipping risk of as much as 24 percent by 2300. This means that in roughly one-quarter of the scenarios that do not return to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, a minimum of one of the tipping elements they considered will have tipped.

“We see an increase in tipping risk with every tenth of a degree of overshoot above 1.5°C. If we were to also surpass 2°C of global warming, tipping risks would escalate even more rapidly. This is very concerning as scenarios that follow currently implemented climate policies are estimated to result in about 2.6°C global warming by the end of this century,” said co-lead author Annika Ernest Högner, also with PIK, in the press release.

“Only a swift warming reversal after overshoot can effectively limit tipping risks. This requires achieving at least net-zero greenhouse gases. Our study underscores that this global mitigation objective, enshrined in Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, is vital for planetary stability,” said Carl Schleussner, one of the authors of the study and a leader with the IIASA Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group, in the press release.

[researchbuzz]

Climate Solutions Explorer, JFK Files, YouTube Premium, More: Friday Afternoon ResearchBuzz, July 21, 2023

NEW RESOURCES International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis: Introducing the Climate Solutions Explorer. “IIASA recently launched the Climate Solutions Explorer – a comprehensive resource that visualizes and presents vital data about climate mitigation, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks arising from development and climate change.” TWEAKS AND UPDATES New York Times: Biden’s…

[russia-eurasia]

The next two weeks I have the opportunity and honor to participate in an advanced education program of the German #Bundesbank on "#EU monetary policy in practice". Each year they chose only 15 participants and I am one of them. And I an the only one for that, who is not from a German institution, but from the #HSE. I hope I can use the acquired insights for research on a recommended monetary policy and macroeconomic convergence in the #EAEU. #Eltville #Rhine #Germany #Eurasia #integration #GreaterEurasia #IIASA (at Tagungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank) https://www.instagram.com/p/BzYV3VvIfuJ/?igshid=13zk1poebipzx

[cheaphousespending]

5 Q’s for Dilek Fraisl, Research Scholar at IIASA – Center for Data Innovation

5 Q’s for Dilek Fraisl, Research Scholar at IIASA – Center for Data Innovation

The Center for Data Innovation spoke with Dilek Fraisl, a researcher with the Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability (NODES) Research Group of the IIASA Advancing Systems Analysis Program, where she works on the integration of new data sources into official statistics to address the world’s greatest development challenges. Fraisl spoke about her research concerning the potential of citizen…

[climatechangeve-blog]

Bridges vol. 42, December / IIASA By Kathryn Platzer, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) The second International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure (ISNGI) imagined resilient infrastructure systems that can meet the needs of twice todays world population with half of todays resources at the same time providing greater livability. Speakers at the symposium, held in Laxenburg September 30-October 1, , emphasized that the future of infrastructure systems (...