#Kelly and Cal 2014
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dreams-on-silver-screens · 11 months ago
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Kelly and Cal (2014)
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robertreich · 5 years ago
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6 Crucial Races That Will Flip the Senate
This November, we have an opportunity to harness your energy and momentum into political power and not just defeat Trump, but also flip the Senate. Here are six key races you should be paying attention to. 1. The first is North Carolina Republican senator Thom Tillis, notable for his “olympic gold” flip-flops. He voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, then offered a loophole-filled replacement that excluded many with preexisting conditions. In 2014 Tillis took the position that climate change was “not a fact” and later urged Trump to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, before begrudgingly acknowledging the realities of climate change in 2018. And in 2019, although briefly opposing Trump’s emergency border wall declaration, he almost immediately caved to pressure. But Tillis’ real legacy is the restrictive 2013 voter suppression law he helped pass as Speaker of the North Carolina House. The federal judge who struck down the egregious law said its provisions “targeted African Americans with almost surgical precision.” Enter Democrat Cal Cunningham, who unlike his opponent, is taking no money from corporate PACs. Cunningham is a veteran who supports overturning the Supreme Court’s disastrous Citizens United decision, restoring the Voting Rights Act, and advancing other policies that would expand access to the ballot box. 2. Maine Senator Susan Collins, a self-proclaimed moderate whose unpopularity has made her especially vulnerable, once said that Trump was unworthy of the presidency. Unfortunately, she spent the last four years enabling his worst behavior. Collins voted to confirm Trump’s judges, including Brett Kavanaugh, and voted to acquit Trump in the impeachment trial, saying he had “learned his lesson” through the process alone. Rubbish. Collins’ opponent is Sara Gideon, speaker of the House in Maine. As Speaker, Gideon pushed Maine to adopt ambitious climate legislation, anti-poverty initiatives, and ranked choice voting. And unlike Collins, Gideon supports comprehensive democracy reforms to ensure politicians are accountable to the people, not billionaire donors. Another Collins term would be six more years of cowardly appeasement, no matter the cost to our democracy. 3. Down in South Carolina, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is also vulnerable. Graham once said he’d “rather lose without Donald Trump than try to win with him.” But after refusing to vote for him in 2016, Graham spent the last four years becoming one of Trump’s most reliable enablers. Graham also introduced legislation to end birthright citizenship, lobbied for heavy restrictions on reproductive rights, and vigorously defended Brett Kavanaugh. Earlier this year, he said that pandemic relief benefits would only be renewed over his dead body. His opponent, Democrat Jaime Harrison, has brought the race into a dead heat with his bold vision for a “New South.” Harrison’s platform centers on expanding access to healthcare, enacting paid family and sick leave, and investing in climate resistant infrastructure. Graham once said that if the Republicans nominated Trump the party would “get destroyed,” and “deserve it.” We should heed his words, and help Jaime Harrison replace him in the Senate. 4. Let’s turn to Montana’s Senate race. The incumbent, Republican Steve Daines, has defended Trump’s racist tweets, thanked him for tear-gassing peaceful protestors, and parroted his push to reopen the country during the pandemic as early as May. Daine’s challenger is former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock is proof that Democratic policies can actually gain support in supposedly red states because they benefit people, not the wealthy and corporations. During his two terms, he oversaw the expansion of Medicaid, prevented the passage of union-busting laws, and vetoed two extreme bills that restricted access to abortions.The choice here, once again, is a no-brainer.
5. In Iowa, like Montana, is a state full of surprises. After the state voted for Obama twice, Republican Joni Ernst won her Senate seat in 2014. Her win was a boon for her corporate backers, but has been a disaster for everyone else.
Ernst, a staunch Trump ally, holds a slew of fringe opinions. She pushed anti-abortion laws that would have outlawed most contraception, shared her belief that states can nullify federal laws, and has hinted that she wants to privatize or fundamentally alter social security “behind closed doors.” Her opponent, Democrat Theresa Greenfield, is a firm supporter of a strong social safety net because she knows its importance firsthand. Union and Social Security survivor benefits helped her rebuild her life after the tragic death of her spouse. With the crippling impact of coronavirus at the forefront of Americans’ minds, Greenfield would be a much needed advocate in the Senate. 6. In Arizona, incumbent Senate Republican Martha McSally is facing Democrat Mark Kelly. Two months after being defeated by Democrat Kyrsten SINema for Arizona’s other Senate seat, McSally was appointed to fill John McCain’s seat following his death. Since then, she’s used that seat to praise Trump and confirm industry lobbyists to agencies like the EPA, and keep cities from receiving additional funds to fight COVID-19. As she voted to block coronavirus relief funds, McSally even had the audacity to ask supporters to “fast a meal” to help support her campaign. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, became a gun-control activist following the attempt on her life in 2011. His support of universal background checks and crucial policies on the climate crisis, reproductive health, and wealth inequality make him the clear choice. These are just a few of the important Senate races happening this year. In addition, the entire House of Representatives will be on the ballot, along with 86 state legislative chambers and thousands of local seats.
Winning the White House is absolutely crucial, but it’s just one piece of the fight to save our democracy and push a people’s agenda. Securing victories in state legislatures is essential to stopping the GOP’s plans to entrench minority rule through gerrymandered congressional districts and restrictive voting laws — and it’s often state-level policies that have the biggest impact on our everyday lives. Even small changes to the makeup of a body like the Texas Board of Education, which determines textbook content for much of the country, will make a huge difference. Plus, every school board member, state representative, and congressperson you elect can be pushed to enact policies that benefit the people, not just corporate donors. This is how you build a movement that lasts.
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chucksrus84 · 5 years ago
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The consequences of the 2016 Presidential election, as well as the midterm elections of 2014 and 2010 is devastating...
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Why didn’t you people VOTE for Hillary Clinton in 2016? We could have avoided this mess.
200,000 Americans would most likely be alive today, had voters made the right choice. 
The consequences of NOT voting for Hillary Clinton and Democratic Senators in 2016, will be felt for 5 to 6 decades now that Mitch McConnell has stacked the lower courts with right-wing extremists; and with another right-wing extremist about to be nominated as SCOTUS, it is very likely that the following rights will be weakened or gutted. 
DismantlingSocial Security (it’s beginning already)
The Voting Rights Act
Gay Civil Rights
Roe vs. Wade
Universal Health Care or ACA
Environmental Right Policies (the EPA will be further weakened)
DACA
And end to safety nets 
Dismantling of Medicaid and Medicare
etc upon etc. 
The people who told you to vote for Jill Stein, or wanted a revolution, or told you to stay home and not vote...will be fine. Many are millionaires who’d rather keep the tax-break they got from Trump than help YOU. Some are millionaires who claim to be against oppression and will use their platform to say they won’t vote but will hire white lawyers to defend a protest without any self examination; and then there are the grifters out to make a buck. Whatever the case may be, these people (who are news anchors, and news hosts, and self-proclaimed activist and rap legends looking out for number, and political commentary guests) will be fine. They will all be fine. Because your suffering means more money for them.
But YOU won’t. Neither will your children or grandchildren.
My only advice to you is register and vote. Vote out Republicans. 
Vote for Democratic Senators like Mark Kelly, Sara Gideon, Jaime Harrison, Cal Cunningham, M.J. Hager, Mike Espy, Amy McGarth...
Vote for Democratic Senators.
Democrats haven’t had the upper hand in the Senate for over SIX years and during that time, Republicans have systematically weakened every civil rights amendment on the books.
So yeah, we lost the courts. We lost them in 2016 because of people’s stupidity.
But maybe we fix it by expanding it. 
Note: I want to thank the 94% of Black American women who voted in 2016. I’m sorry the country refuse to follow your lead. 
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thecollegefootballguy · 5 years ago
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The Top 25 Teams of the Decade: #10 Stanford
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Hello everybody, we’re celebrating the arrival of the 2020′s by looking at the 25 best programs of the previous decade.
We’re on to the top ten to celebrate the #10 team from the 2010′s:
Leland Stanford Junior University Cardinal
Record: 98-35 (.737) Division Titles: 5 Conference Titles: 3 Bowl Seasons: 9 Major Bowls: 5 Final Top 25 Finishes: 7 Final Top 10 Finishes: 4 Final Top 5 Finishes: 2 Best Season: 2010
Stanford had their best decade since Pop Warner nearly 100 years ago. The Cardinal have never been consistently good this long in program history. Part of the great story was just how bad Stanford was in the 2000′s, the Cardinal spent most of the decade as one of the worst BCS conference teams in the country before Jim Harbaugh came to town and turned everything around.
By 2010, Harbaugh had Stanford firing on all cylinders. In just his 4th year in Palo Alto, the Cardinal were one of the best teams in the nation even if nobody knew it at the time. Led by Heisman hopeful QB Andrew Luck, Stanford’s offense put up monstrous numbers. Despite starting the season unranked, the Cardinal quickly climbed up to 9th in the AP Poll by October with huge wins over UCLA and Notre Dame. Stanford had to topple heir-presumptive #4 Oregon in order to claim the PAC-10 title from the Ducks, but they lost in Eugene 31-52 as they were boat-raced by perhaps the best of the Kelly UO teams. The Cardinal were nearly upset by USC the next week, but regained their footing, and won out relatively unchallenged. 11-1 Stanford was pitted against ACC champion #12 Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. The Cardinal blew out the overmatched Hokies 40-12 to claim their first major bowl since the 1972 Rose Bowl and finished in the top 5 for the first time since 1940.
Jim Harbaugh’s work was done in Palo Alto, and the architect of Stanford’s turnaround left for the NFL, leaving OC and alum David Shaw in charge. Andrew Luck stayed on despite significant NFL interest, citing unfinished business. The Cardinal raced out to a 7-0 start, hammering all comers and averaging well over 45 points per game. The first real threat was again USC, the Trojans gave Stanford all they could handle, taking the Cardinal to triple overtime before falling at home in a 56-48 barn burner. #3 Stanford climbed all the way to 9-0 before once again reckoning with #6 Oregon. For the second year in a row, College Gameday was present as the nation watched the Cardinal once again fail to outpace the Ducks. Stanford lost 30-53 and was once again knocked out of the BCS Championship Game and Rose Bowl in one blow. Once again 11-1, Stanford was matched up against #3 Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl. Special teams errors kept the Cowboys in the game and OK State eventually sealed the game in overtime 41-38. It was still one of the most successful season in program history, even if everybody on the Cardinal felt they could have done better.
Andrew Luck was now gone, and 2012 began with big questions on the offense. Stanford upset national champion hopeful USC, but struggled to score in that game, as well as in tight losses to Washington and Notre Dame. David Shaw threw in redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan to stabilize the offense and the Cardinal regained their form. Stanford rattled off four wins to climb up to #14 in the nation before their fateful date with undefeated #1 Oregon. The formerly snake-bitten Cardinal completely shut down the Ducks’ high flying offense and Stanford won in overtime, 17-14. The Cardinal claimed the North division and then beat UCLA in the PAC-12 Championship to win the conference for the first time since 1999. #8 Stanford was pitted against Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and the Cardinal won 20-14 in a game that didn’t feature too many fireworks. It added a bit of closure to the 2010 and 2011 teams that failed to make it to Pasadena, though once again there were grumblings that the team could have reached even higher if the offense had been reworked earlier in the season.
2013 was another successful year on The Farm. Stanford had now reoriented itself fully into a hard-nosed, defense-oriented squad that dominated the lines. The Cardinal began the year 5th in the nation and remained there for the first month and a half before falling to Utah 27-21 in Salt Lake City. Solid wins over #9 UCLA and #2 Oregon saw Stanford’s defense put on a clinic against the mighty Ducks. The 8-1 Cardinal once again climbed to 5th in the polls before losing to rival USC 17-20 in the Coliseum. Thanks to an Oregon loss to Arizona, Stanford was able to remain in the North race. The Cardinal rebounded once more, winning the PAC-12 with an easy 38-14 win over Arizona State in the PAC-12 Championship Game. 11-2 Stanford was once again 5th in the AP poll and faced off against Big Ten Champ #4 Michigan State in the Rose Bowl. This time, the Cardinal were held off by the stout Spartans, who more or less beat Stanford at their own game in a 24-20 trench battle.
The Cardinal began 2014 with high hopes, but luck was not on Stanford’s side this year. The Cardinal lost to USC by 3, the Notre Dame by 3, before Arizona State really shut down Stanford 26-10. The lackluster Cardinal were then blown out by Playoff bound Oregon before falling to Utah in double overtime, again by 3 points. 5-5 Stanford was a far cry from the powerhouse it had been in the previous several years, but they finished strong to come end the year 8-5 and in the top 20 of many computer rankings in a very strong PAC-12 field.
2015 started off on the wrong foot to say the least. The Cardinal carried their troubles scoring into the new season, stalling out in a frustrating game against Northwestern 6-16. Then, they realized how to orient the offense around Christian McCaffrey and the rest is history. Stanford would never score fewer than 30 points for the rest of the season. The Cardinal obliterated #6 USC and then easily outpaced #18 UCLA among mostly easy victories over the rest of the PAC-12′s crop. Stanford was 8-1 and on the outside of the Playoff race when Oregon came calling. This was the last proper year of the Stanford-Oregon saga, and the Ducks finally got to repay the Cardinal for ruining their seasons in 2012 and 2014. Unranked Oregon upended Stanford 38-36 in Palo Alto to knock the Cardinal out of the Playoff race. The damage had already been done, and despite losing to the Ducks, Stanford already had the PAC-12 well in hand. A win over #4 Notre Dame knocked the Irish out of the Playoff before the Cardinal beat rival #24 USC in the PAC-12 Championship to confirm their trip to the Rose Bowl. Stanford was given #5 Iowa as a consolation prize for not making the Playoff, and the Cardinal demolished the Hawkeyes 45-16 in one of the most lopsided Rose Bowl victories of all time. Stanford finished 3rd in the final AP poll, their highest finish in the 2010′s.
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The Cardinal returned all-world Christian McCaffrey in 2016, but struggled to replace Kevin Hogan behind center. Stanford started the season 8th in the polls but quickly dropped all the way out thanks to back to back blowout losses to Washington and Washington State. A 10-5 loss at home to Colorado was an extra twist of the knife that left the Cardinal well out of the North division race. Stanford did end up winning their final 6 games and finished the year 10-3 and 12th in the polls to recoup most of their hurt pride. 2017 was similarly disappointing. Back to back losses to USC and San Diego State dropped the Cardinal from the rankings again. A win over #20 Utah helped to bring the squad back to 6-2, but a tight 21-24 loss to Wazzu on the Palouse was another setback. Stanford rebounded the next week with a 30-22 win over #9 Washington and followed that up with an easy 38-20 win over #9 Notre Dame. Stanford was once again in the PAC-12 Championship Game, but this time not as an easy favorite. The #14 Cardinal faltered against #11 USC in their first loss in Santa Clara. A frustrating loss the TCU in the Alamo capped the season.
A slow leaking of talent began to take its toll in 2018. Stanford was no longer the team it had been in the first half of the decade, and sustained regular losses. After a 4-0 start, the Cardinal lost 4 of 5 to drop well out of the division race. They ended the year 9-4 but going 9-4 in the PAC-12 meant a lot less in 2018 than it did in 2013 or 2014. In 2019, Stanford really started to unravel, sustaining heavy injuries to finish a dreadful 4-8, their worst record since 2007.
It’s hard to say where the Cardinal go from here. They will likely regain their foothold as a regular bowl team, but it’s hard seeing Stanford get back to regular Rose Bowl competition. David Shaw is as committed as they come to sustaining success on The Farm. Time will tell.
The 2010′s will go down as a monumental success for the Cardinal. Stanford had a winning record against all its major rivals: outpacing Notre Dame 6-4 and USC 7-5. They absolutely dominated UCLA 10-1 and most importantly pounded Cal into the ground 9-1, easily their most dominant stretch against any of the other California teams since they began playing.
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stuckontheisland · 6 years ago
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Bootleg Masterpost
Hi party people! I’m a new trader and have a small collection of stuffs that I want you all to know about in case you’re interested in anything or would like to trade! Feel free to msg me! <3 <3 
Anastasia | Sep 17, 2017
Christy Altomare (Anya), Derek Klena (Dimitry), Ramin Karimloo (Gleb), John Bolton (Vlad), Caroline O’Connor (Countess Lily), Mray Beth Peil(Empress Maria),
Bonnie and Clyde| Sep 28, 2013
Laura Osnes (Bonnie Parker), Jeremy Jordan(Clyde Barrow), Melissa Van Der Schyff (Blanche Barrow), Claybourne Elder (Buck Barrow), Louis Hobson (Ted Hilton)
Bridges of Madison County| March 9, 2014
Kelli O’Hara (Francesca), Steven Pasquale (Robert), Whitney Bashor (Marian/Chiara), Hunter Foster (Bud), Caitlin Kinnunen(Carolyn), Derek Klena (Michael), Michael X Martin(Charlie), Cass Morgan(Marge)
Carousel | April 26, 2013 | Lincoln Centre Production
Kelli O’Hara(Julie Jordan), Nathan Gunn (Billy Bigelow) Stephanie Blythe (Nettie Fowler), John Cullum (The Starkeeper/Dr. Selden), Jessie Mueller (Carrie)
Dear Evan Hansen| Oct 19, 2018 | LA Opening Night
Tracked Audio
Ben Levi Ross(Evan Hansen),  Jessica Philips(Heidi Hansen), Maggie McKenna(Zoe Murphy), Marrick Smith(Connor Murphy), Christiane Noll(Cynthia Murphy), Aaron Lazar(Larry Murphy), Jared Goldsmith(Jared Kleinman), Phoebe Koyabe(Alana Beck)
Dear Evan Hansen| Unknown
Ben Platt (Evan Hansen), Rachel Bay Jones (Heidi Hansen), Mike Faist (Connor Murphy), Laura Dreyfuss (Zoe Murphy), Jennifer Laura Thompson (Cynthia Murphy), Michael Park (Larry Murphy), Will Roland (Jared Kleinman), Kristolyn Lloyd (Alana Beck)
Falsettos| Lincoln Centre/PBSProfessionally Recorded
Stephanie J. Block (Trina), Christian Borle (Marvin), Andrew Rannells(Whizzer), Anthony Rosenthal (Jason), Tracie Thoms(Dr. Charlotte), Brandon Uranowitz (Mendel), Betsy Wolfe (Cordelia)
Gypsy| Unknown 2008 | Broadway Revival
Laura Benanti (Louise), Patti LuPone(Rose), Leigh Ann Larkin(Rose), Boyd Gaines (Herbie), Tony Yazbek(Tulsa), Alison Fraser (Tessie Tura), Leonora Nemetz (Mazeppa), Marilyn Caskey (Electra)
Hamilton| Unknown
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Phillipa Soo, Leslie Odom Jr, Renee Elise Goldsberry, Christopher Jackson, Daveed Diggs, Okieriete Onaodowan, Anthony Ramos, Jasmine Cephas Jones, Jonathan Groff, Sydney James Harcourt, Daniel J Watts, Neil Haskell, Ephraim Sykes.
Into the Woods| Unknown 2002 | Broadway revival
Vanessa Williams, Stephen DeRosa, Kerry O’Malley, John McMartin, Gregg Edelman, Laura Benanti, Molly Ephriam, Adam Wylie, Marylouise Burke
Leap of Faith| April 4, 2012 | Broadway
Raul Esparza, Jessica Phillips, Kendra Kassebaum, Kecia Lewis-Evans, Leslie Odom Jr., Krystal Joy Brown, Talon Ackerman
Legally Blonde| Unknown |Professionally Recorded MTV
Laura Bell Bundy(Elle Woods), Christian Borle(Emmett Forrest), Orfeh(Paulette), Richard H Blake(Warner Huntington III), Kate Shindle(Vivienne Kensington), Nikki Snelson(Brooke Wyndham), Michael Rupert(Professor Callahan), Annaleigh Ashford(Margot), Asmeret Ghebremichael(Pilar), Tracy Jai Edwards(Serena)
Next to Normal| March 18, 2010 Cast: Jessica Phillips (Diana s/b), J. Robert Spencer (Dan), Kyle Dean Massey (Gabe), Jenn Damiano (Natalie), Adam Chanler-Berat (Henry), Louis Hobson (Dr. Madden/Dr. Fine)
Next to Normal| June 6, 2009 | First post-Tony performance
Tracked Audio Cast: Jessica Phillips (Diana s/b), J. Robert Spencer (Dan), Kyle Dean Massey (Gabe), Jenn Damiano (Natalie), Adam Chanler-Berat (Henry), Louis Hobson (Dr. Madden/Dr. Fine)
Next to Normal| Nov 29, 2009
Tracked Audio Cast: Jessica Phillips (Diana s/b), J. Robert Spencer (Dan), Kyle Dean Massey (Gabe), Jenn Damiano (Natalie), Adam Chanler-Berat (Henry), Louis Hobson (Dr. Madden/Dr. Fine)
Next to Normal| March 18, 2010
Tracked Audio Cast: Jessica Phillips (Diana s/b), J. Robert Spencer (Dan), Kyle Dean Massey (Gabe), Jenn Damiano (Natalie), Adam Chanler-Berat (Henry), Louis Hobson (Dr. Madden/Dr. Fine)
Next to Normal| March 20, 2010
Tracked Audio
Cast: Jessica Phillips (Diana s/b), J. Robert Spencer (Dan), Kyle Dean Massey (Gabe), Jenn Damiano (Natalie), Adam Chanler-Berat (Henry), Louis Hobson (Dr. Madden/Dr. Fine)
Priscilla Queen of the Desert| March 6, 2011
Will Swenson (Tick/Mitzi), Tony Sheldon (Bernadette), Nick Adams (Adam/Felicia), C. David Johnson (Bob), Jacqueline B. Arnold (Diva #3), Anastacia McCleskey (Diva #2), Ashley Spencer (Diva #1), Jessica Phillips (Marion), J. Elaine Marcos (Cynthia)
Songs for a New World ​| June 2018 | NYCC Shoshana Bean, Colin Donnell, Mykal Kilgore, Solea Pfeiffer
Spring Awakening| August 15, 2008 | First performance, San Diego
Kyle Riabko (Melchior), Christy Altomare (Wendla), Blake Bashoff (Moritz), Steffi D (Ilse), Sarah Hunt (Martha), Kimiko Glenn (Thea), Gabrielle Garza (Anna), Anthony Lee Medina (Otto), Matt Shingledecker (Georg), Andy Mientus (Hanschen), Ben Moss (Ernst), Angela Reed (Adult Women), Henry Stram (Adult Men)
Waitress | March 30, 2016
Jessie Mueller (Jenna), Keala Settle (Becky), Kimiko Glenn (Dawn), Drew Gehling (Dr. Pomatter), Nick Cordero (Earl), Dakin Matthews (Joe), Eric Anderson (Cal), Christopher Fitzgerald (Ogie)
Wicked| August 17, 2005
Shoshana Bean(Elphaba), Meghan Hilty(Glinda)
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patriotsnet · 4 years ago
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How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-the-republicans-have-in-the-senate/
How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate
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Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects
WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.
Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was by NBC News as the apparent winner.
Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.
Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.
Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the partyâs first gain.
Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.
In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it âtoo early to call.â
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly but the race is rated âtoo close to call.â
Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.
Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.
What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?
alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.
geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.
nrakich : What they said!
United States Senate Elections 2020
November 3, 2020 U.S. Senate Elections by State U.S. House Elections
Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 3, 2020. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for regular election.
Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 3, 2020, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2021.
Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 116th Congress, including 2020 special U.S. Senate elections in Arizona for the seat that John McCain won in 2016 and in Georgia for the seat that Johnny Isakson won in 2016.
Twelve seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2020. Heading into the election, Republicans had a majority with 53 seats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the chamber. The vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
On this page, you will find:
Information on historical wave elections
Republicans On Course To Hold Senate Majority
WASHINGTON D.C, November 4, 2020 The Republican party looks set to hold its majority in the U.S. Senate, as election night draws to a close across the nation.
The latest figures show the Republicans with 47 confirmed seats and the Democrats with 45. At the time of writing only six seats remain unconfirmed: Alaska, Georgia, Georgia Special, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. 
Republicans are on target to hold both North Carolina and Maine, and also have a healthy lead in Michigan which currently has 68% of the vote counted.
Georgia also looks secure for the Republicans, with Sen. Perdue on target to hold his seat. 
Of the six unconfirmed seats, only Georgia Special is without a clear winner and deemed a runoff.
Alaska currently has only 39% of the vote counted, with Rep. Dan Sullivan leading his Democrat challenger by 61.7% to 33.7%. Polls predict that Republicans will hold the seat.
The Democrats took a victory in Colorado, winning the seat from the Republicans, and also took the win in the Arizona Special election, after the death of Republican John McCain left the seat open.
However, the Democrats also lost their Alabama seat, as pro-life Republican Tommy Tuberville won the seat from Sen. Doug Jones.
Republicans have held a majority in the Senate since 2014, and prior to November 3 election night, held 53 seats.
Twitter just deplatformed President Trump premanently! And, other conservatives, including General Flynn and Sidney Powell, were also deplatformed.
Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican
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Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.
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Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.
Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.
President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.
It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.
Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
Iowa: Joni Ernst Vs Bruce Braley
Republican Joni Ernst defeated Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race to fill the open seat vacated by the retirement of Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic stalwart in the state. Ernst, 44, will be the first female senator to ever represent Iowa, a state that catapulted Barack Obamas career just six years ago.
Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, shocked the political establishment when she won a crowded GOP primary in June. Ernst, a little known state senator, burst onto the national scene after releasing an attention grabbing ad called Squeal, which featured her talking about castrating hogs.
Braley stumbled throughout his campaign from making remarks that insulted some Iowa farmers to threatening a lawsuit against his neighbor over roaming chickens. Republican and Democratic surrogates with potential 2016 ambitions flooded Iowa in the final weeks of the campaign to help their candidates.
Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects
Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.
Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.
Read more here. 
The Winding Road To Democratic Control
Following an anxious four days of waiting after the 2020 general election, nearly all major news networks declared that Joe Biden had exceeded 270 electoral votes and won the presidency. Democrats also retained control of the U.S. House, although their majority has been trimmed back .
But the U.S. Senate still hung in the balance, a tantalizing prize for Democrats dreaming of a trifecta, and a bulwark against a Democratic agenda for Republicans who seek to hold onto some power under the new Biden administration that will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.
Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.
The Senates balance of power teetered on the fulcrum of Georgias two seats, both of which were decided by the January 5th runoff election. Georgia law requires candidates to be voted in with at least 50% of the votes cast; if a candidate does not reach that threshold the two candidates who received the highest number of votes face one another in a runoff election.
Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:
Incumbent David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff .According to Georgias Secretary of State, Perdue received 88,000 more votes than Ossoff, but came up just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. This is in part due to the 115,000 votes that went to Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel who will not appear on the January ballot.
Maine Senate Race A Toss
 With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.
CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.
The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. 
The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
Why Is There An Election In Georgia
The election is being rerun because of Georgia’s rule that a candidate must take 50% of the vote in order to win.
None of the candidates in November’s general election met that threshold.
With 98% of votes counted, US TV networks and the Associated Press news agency called the first of the two races for Mr Warnock.
Control of the Senate in the first two years of Mr Biden’s term will be determined by the outcome of the second run-off.
Mr Warnock is set to become the first black senator for the state of Georgia – a slavery state in the US Civil War – and only the 11th black senator in US history.
He serves as the reverend of the Atlanta church where assassinated civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr grew up and preached.
Claiming victory, he paid tribute to his mother, Verlene, who as a teenager worked as a farm labourer.
“The other day – because this is America – the 82-year-old hands that used to pick somebody else’s cotton went to the polls and picked her youngest son to be a United States senator,” he said.
If both Democrats win, the Senate will be evenly split 50-50, allowing incoming Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. The Democrats narrowly control the House of Representatives.
Mr Ossoff has also claimed victory in his race against Republican Senator David Perdue, but that race is even tighter. At 33, he would be the Senate’s youngest member for 40 years.
Mr Biden won at least seven million more votes than the president.
Us Election 2020: Democrats’ Hopes Of Gaining Control Of Senate Fade
Democrats are rapidly losing hope of gaining control of the US Senate after underperforming in key states.
Controlling the Senate would have allowed them to either obstruct or push through the next president’s agenda.
The party had high hopes of gaining the four necessary seats in Congress’s upper chamber, but many Republican incumbents held their seats.
The Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the lower chamber, the House, but with some key losses.
With many votes still to be counted, the final outcome for both houses may not be known for some time.
Why don’t we have a winner yet?
Among the disappointments for the Democrats was the fight for the seat in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins staved off a fierce challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.
However, the night did see a number of firsts – including the first black openly LGBTQ people ever elected to Congress and the first openly transgender state senator.
The balance of power in the Senate may also change next January. At least one run-off election is due to be held that month in Georgia, since neither candidate has been able to secure more than 50% of votes.
This year’s congressional election is running alongside the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 were Republican-held and 12 were Democrat.
Senators serve six-year terms, and every two years a third of the seats are up for re-election.
Cal Cunningham Concedes North Carolina Senate Race
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Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday, saying in a statement that he had called Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis to congratulate him on his victory.
“I just called Senator Tillis to congratulate him on winning re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate and wished him and his family the best in their continued service in the months and years ahead,” Cunningham said. “The voters have spoken and I respect their decision.”
CBS News projects that Tillis has won the race, after Cunningham’s concession. Tillis led Cunningham by nearly 100,000 votes as of Tuesday. The presidential race in North Carolina is still too close to call, although President Trump is currently in the lead. The full results of the election in North Carolina are unlikely to be known until later this week, as the deadline in the state to receive absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day is November 12.
What Are The Magic Numbers
It depends on who wins the presidency. If its former Vice President Joe Biden, Democrats must flip three seats because new VP Kamala Harris would get to cast any tie-breaking vote. If its President Donald Trump, Democrats would need to flip four seats to seize control of the Senate. They already control the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.
With numerous races still uncalled in the Senate election, so far the Democrats have flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, but Republicans flipped an Alabama seat.
Republicans also beat back Democratic challenges to retain seats in South Carolina, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Maine and Texas. Democrats had launched aggressive challenges in attempts to pick up Senate seats in traditionally Republican areas, but that didnt happen for them.
Either side needs 51 seats to have a majority of seats in the Senate. According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans had reached 48 seats and Democrats were at 47, as of 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on November 4.
However, Republicans were leading in several Senate races that had yet to be called.
In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis declared victory, but, according to WSOC-TV, not all votes had yet been counted and the race was too close to call on November 4.
In one of the two Georgia Senate races, Republican David Perdue was also leading with most returns in.
Where It Stands: Election Hinges On Key States Final Results May Take A While
McConnell is expected to remain leader of the GOP conference if Republicans hold the chamber. During Trump’s first term, McConnell led the effort to remake the federal judiciary with 220 judges confirmed, including three Supreme Court justices.
Democrats hoped that progressives’ concerns about Barrett replacing liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court would help fuel their bid to oust Republicans, who confirmed her just days before Election Day.
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the only Republican to vote against Barrett, was one of the most vulnerable members. But Collins was ahead early Wednesday in her bid against Democratic candidate Sarah Gideon, according to The Associated Press.
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, also a top-tier target for Democrats, was leading in the AP vote count, but the race as of early Wednesday was still too close to call, as was North Carolina’s choice for president.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats hoped to win one or both Senate seats in Georgia. The contest between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has not yet been called by the AP. And the special election for the other seat will go to a runoff because no candidate received 50% of the vote Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor from Atlanta, on Jan. 5.
McConnell said the outcome of the presidential race is still unsettled and it may be another day or more before key Senate races are decided.
Could Flip Under The Right Conditions: Michigan Iowa Montana Kansas And Georgia Special Election
Michigan: Michigan is one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race, and the reelection bid of Sen. Gary Peters will get caught up in that. Democrats say the fact that the coronavirus has hit Michigan hard makes it more likely Biden can win this state, which was crucial to Trumps 2016 victory. In the Senate race, Republicans have made a big deal out of John James, an Iraq War veteran and conservative media darling. James has outraised Peters for three straight quarters and is close to having as much money as Peters in the bank. Democrats argue Republicans are too bullish on a candidate who also lost a Senate race against a Democrat in 2018. Polls have shown this race close between the two.
Montana: Can a popular Democratic governor who won in Trump country unseat a sitting Republican senator? Term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock , a former 2020 presidential candidate, is running against Sen. Steve Daines . Bullock is the Democrat with the best shot, given hes won three times statewide, including when Trump swept the state in 2016. And in 2018, Sen. Jon Tester won a tough reelection fight. But can Bullock unseat a sitting Republican senator in a state that some strategists estimate could vote for Trump by as many as 20 points?
Democrats Probably Need To Win All Four Toss
There remain some big wild cards in the race for the Senate majority: Neither side has a handle yet on how the coronavirus pandemic, or the race between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden, will shape individual Senate races.
Democrats, once seen as a long shot to take the majority from Republicans in November, have had a lot go their way in recent months. Theyve persuaded some choice candidates to jump in and make races more competitive, and their fundraising has been strong.
But to pick up at least four Senate seats, Democrats probably have to win all four toss-up races. That, plus a win by Biden, would give them an effective Senate majority, since his vice president could cast tie-breaking votes.
With a lot more unknowns than normal at this point in the election cycle, here are the 10 races most likely to flip. Because so many races are so close, rather than rank them, I grouped them into three tiers: Likely to flip; Toss-ups; Could flip under the right conditions.
Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder
Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.
President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.
The Brennan Center has that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.
Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.
Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.
Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.
Potentially Competitive Us Senate Races In 2022
Held by Republicans
Maggie Hassan Biden +7.4
The Democrats could also have opportunities in Ohio, where Sen. Rob Portman is retiring, and in Florida, home of Sen. Marco Rubio , but both of these once-preeminent swing states have drifted toward the GOP in recent elections and could be tough to pick off in 2022.
The GOPs top two pickup opportunities are also readily apparent: Arizona and Georgia. Both were among the most narrowly decided states that Biden won, and both have a history of favoring Republicans. Both are home to Democratic incumbents who won their seats in 2020 special elections: Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael G. Warnock . The GOPs path back to a majority begins with reclaiming these two states.
Beyond that, though, obvious GOP opportunities are harder to come by. New Hampshire could be competitive if popular Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Sen. Maggie Hassan , but it has trended in the Democrats favor in recent years, going for Biden by seven points last year. Ditto Nevada, where first-term Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection, but the GOP bench is somewhat limited as the state has also drifted blue in recent years.
Democrats control of the House is arguably more imperiled than their hold on the Senate. Thats a function of the Senate seats that are up for reelection as well as the lay of the land in the House.
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How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate
Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects
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WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.
Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was by NBC News as the apparent winner.
Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.
Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.
Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the partyâs first gain.
Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.
In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it âtoo early to call.â
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly but the race is rated âtoo close to call.â
Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.
Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.
What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?
alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.
geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.
nrakich : What they said!
United States Senate Elections 2020
November 3, 2020 U.S. Senate Elections by State U.S. House Elections
Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 3, 2020. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for regular election.
Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 3, 2020, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2021.
Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 116th Congress, including 2020 special U.S. Senate elections in Arizona for the seat that John McCain won in 2016 and in Georgia for the seat that Johnny Isakson won in 2016.
Twelve seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2020. Heading into the election, Republicans had a majority with 53 seats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the chamber. The vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
On this page, you will find:
Information on historical wave elections
Republicans On Course To Hold Senate Majority
WASHINGTON D.C, November 4, 2020 The Republican party looks set to hold its majority in the U.S. Senate, as election night draws to a close across the nation.
The latest figures show the Republicans with 47 confirmed seats and the Democrats with 45. At the time of writing only six seats remain unconfirmed: Alaska, Georgia, Georgia Special, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. 
Republicans are on target to hold both North Carolina and Maine, and also have a healthy lead in Michigan which currently has 68% of the vote counted.
Georgia also looks secure for the Republicans, with Sen. Perdue on target to hold his seat. 
Of the six unconfirmed seats, only Georgia Special is without a clear winner and deemed a runoff.
Alaska currently has only 39% of the vote counted, with Rep. Dan Sullivan leading his Democrat challenger by 61.7% to 33.7%. Polls predict that Republicans will hold the seat.
The Democrats took a victory in Colorado, winning the seat from the Republicans, and also took the win in the Arizona Special election, after the death of Republican John McCain left the seat open.
However, the Democrats also lost their Alabama seat, as pro-life Republican Tommy Tuberville won the seat from Sen. Doug Jones.
Republicans have held a majority in the Senate since 2014, and prior to November 3 election night, held 53 seats.
Twitter just deplatformed President Trump premanently! And, other conservatives, including General Flynn and Sidney Powell, were also deplatformed.
Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican
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Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.
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Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.
Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.
President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.
It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.
Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
Iowa: Joni Ernst Vs Bruce Braley
Republican Joni Ernst defeated Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race to fill the open seat vacated by the retirement of Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic stalwart in the state. Ernst, 44, will be the first female senator to ever represent Iowa, a state that catapulted Barack Obamas career just six years ago.
Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, shocked the political establishment when she won a crowded GOP primary in June. Ernst, a little known state senator, burst onto the national scene after releasing an attention grabbing ad called Squeal, which featured her talking about castrating hogs.
Braley stumbled throughout his campaign from making remarks that insulted some Iowa farmers to threatening a lawsuit against his neighbor over roaming chickens. Republican and Democratic surrogates with potential 2016 ambitions flooded Iowa in the final weeks of the campaign to help their candidates.
Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects
Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.
Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.
Read more here. 
The Winding Road To Democratic Control
Following an anxious four days of waiting after the 2020 general election, nearly all major news networks declared that Joe Biden had exceeded 270 electoral votes and won the presidency. Democrats also retained control of the U.S. House, although their majority has been trimmed back .
But the U.S. Senate still hung in the balance, a tantalizing prize for Democrats dreaming of a trifecta, and a bulwark against a Democratic agenda for Republicans who seek to hold onto some power under the new Biden administration that will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.
Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.
The Senates balance of power teetered on the fulcrum of Georgias two seats, both of which were decided by the January 5th runoff election. Georgia law requires candidates to be voted in with at least 50% of the votes cast; if a candidate does not reach that threshold the two candidates who received the highest number of votes face one another in a runoff election.
Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:
Incumbent David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff .According to Georgias Secretary of State, Perdue received 88,000 more votes than Ossoff, but came up just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. This is in part due to the 115,000 votes that went to Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel who will not appear on the January ballot.
Maine Senate Race A Toss
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 With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.
CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.
The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. 
The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
Why Is There An Election In Georgia
The election is being rerun because of Georgia’s rule that a candidate must take 50% of the vote in order to win.
None of the candidates in November’s general election met that threshold.
With 98% of votes counted, US TV networks and the Associated Press news agency called the first of the two races for Mr Warnock.
Control of the Senate in the first two years of Mr Biden’s term will be determined by the outcome of the second run-off.
Mr Warnock is set to become the first black senator for the state of Georgia – a slavery state in the US Civil War – and only the 11th black senator in US history.
He serves as the reverend of the Atlanta church where assassinated civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr grew up and preached.
Claiming victory, he paid tribute to his mother, Verlene, who as a teenager worked as a farm labourer.
“The other day – because this is America – the 82-year-old hands that used to pick somebody else’s cotton went to the polls and picked her youngest son to be a United States senator,” he said.
If both Democrats win, the Senate will be evenly split 50-50, allowing incoming Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. The Democrats narrowly control the House of Representatives.
Mr Ossoff has also claimed victory in his race against Republican Senator David Perdue, but that race is even tighter. At 33, he would be the Senate’s youngest member for 40 years.
Mr Biden won at least seven million more votes than the president.
Us Election 2020: Democrats’ Hopes Of Gaining Control Of Senate Fade
Democrats are rapidly losing hope of gaining control of the US Senate after underperforming in key states.
Controlling the Senate would have allowed them to either obstruct or push through the next president’s agenda.
The party had high hopes of gaining the four necessary seats in Congress’s upper chamber, but many Republican incumbents held their seats.
The Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the lower chamber, the House, but with some key losses.
With many votes still to be counted, the final outcome for both houses may not be known for some time.
Why don’t we have a winner yet?
Among the disappointments for the Democrats was the fight for the seat in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins staved off a fierce challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.
However, the night did see a number of firsts – including the first black openly LGBTQ people ever elected to Congress and the first openly transgender state senator.
The balance of power in the Senate may also change next January. At least one run-off election is due to be held that month in Georgia, since neither candidate has been able to secure more than 50% of votes.
This year’s congressional election is running alongside the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 were Republican-held and 12 were Democrat.
Senators serve six-year terms, and every two years a third of the seats are up for re-election.
Cal Cunningham Concedes North Carolina Senate Race
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Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday, saying in a statement that he had called Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis to congratulate him on his victory.
“I just called Senator Tillis to congratulate him on winning re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate and wished him and his family the best in their continued service in the months and years ahead,” Cunningham said. “The voters have spoken and I respect their decision.”
CBS News projects that Tillis has won the race, after Cunningham’s concession. Tillis led Cunningham by nearly 100,000 votes as of Tuesday. The presidential race in North Carolina is still too close to call, although President Trump is currently in the lead. The full results of the election in North Carolina are unlikely to be known until later this week, as the deadline in the state to receive absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day is November 12.
What Are The Magic Numbers
It depends on who wins the presidency. If its former Vice President Joe Biden, Democrats must flip three seats because new VP Kamala Harris would get to cast any tie-breaking vote. If its President Donald Trump, Democrats would need to flip four seats to seize control of the Senate. They already control the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.
With numerous races still uncalled in the Senate election, so far the Democrats have flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, but Republicans flipped an Alabama seat.
Republicans also beat back Democratic challenges to retain seats in South Carolina, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Maine and Texas. Democrats had launched aggressive challenges in attempts to pick up Senate seats in traditionally Republican areas, but that didnt happen for them.
Either side needs 51 seats to have a majority of seats in the Senate. According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans had reached 48 seats and Democrats were at 47, as of 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on November 4.
However, Republicans were leading in several Senate races that had yet to be called.
In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis declared victory, but, according to WSOC-TV, not all votes had yet been counted and the race was too close to call on November 4.
In one of the two Georgia Senate races, Republican David Perdue was also leading with most returns in.
Where It Stands: Election Hinges On Key States Final Results May Take A While
McConnell is expected to remain leader of the GOP conference if Republicans hold the chamber. During Trump’s first term, McConnell led the effort to remake the federal judiciary with 220 judges confirmed, including three Supreme Court justices.
Democrats hoped that progressives’ concerns about Barrett replacing liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court would help fuel their bid to oust Republicans, who confirmed her just days before Election Day.
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the only Republican to vote against Barrett, was one of the most vulnerable members. But Collins was ahead early Wednesday in her bid against Democratic candidate Sarah Gideon, according to The Associated Press.
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, also a top-tier target for Democrats, was leading in the AP vote count, but the race as of early Wednesday was still too close to call, as was North Carolina’s choice for president.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats hoped to win one or both Senate seats in Georgia. The contest between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has not yet been called by the AP. And the special election for the other seat will go to a runoff because no candidate received 50% of the vote Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor from Atlanta, on Jan. 5.
McConnell said the outcome of the presidential race is still unsettled and it may be another day or more before key Senate races are decided.
Could Flip Under The Right Conditions: Michigan Iowa Montana Kansas And Georgia Special Election
Michigan: Michigan is one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race, and the reelection bid of Sen. Gary Peters will get caught up in that. Democrats say the fact that the coronavirus has hit Michigan hard makes it more likely Biden can win this state, which was crucial to Trumps 2016 victory. In the Senate race, Republicans have made a big deal out of John James, an Iraq War veteran and conservative media darling. James has outraised Peters for three straight quarters and is close to having as much money as Peters in the bank. Democrats argue Republicans are too bullish on a candidate who also lost a Senate race against a Democrat in 2018. Polls have shown this race close between the two.
Montana: Can a popular Democratic governor who won in Trump country unseat a sitting Republican senator? Term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock , a former 2020 presidential candidate, is running against Sen. Steve Daines . Bullock is the Democrat with the best shot, given hes won three times statewide, including when Trump swept the state in 2016. And in 2018, Sen. Jon Tester won a tough reelection fight. But can Bullock unseat a sitting Republican senator in a state that some strategists estimate could vote for Trump by as many as 20 points?
Democrats Probably Need To Win All Four Toss
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There remain some big wild cards in the race for the Senate majority: Neither side has a handle yet on how the coronavirus pandemic, or the race between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden, will shape individual Senate races.
Democrats, once seen as a long shot to take the majority from Republicans in November, have had a lot go their way in recent months. Theyve persuaded some choice candidates to jump in and make races more competitive, and their fundraising has been strong.
But to pick up at least four Senate seats, Democrats probably have to win all four toss-up races. That, plus a win by Biden, would give them an effective Senate majority, since his vice president could cast tie-breaking votes.
With a lot more unknowns than normal at this point in the election cycle, here are the 10 races most likely to flip. Because so many races are so close, rather than rank them, I grouped them into three tiers: Likely to flip; Toss-ups; Could flip under the right conditions.
Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder
Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.
President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.
The Brennan Center has that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.
Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.
Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.
Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.
Potentially Competitive Us Senate Races In 2022
Held by Republicans
Maggie Hassan Biden +7.4
The Democrats could also have opportunities in Ohio, where Sen. Rob Portman is retiring, and in Florida, home of Sen. Marco Rubio , but both of these once-preeminent swing states have drifted toward the GOP in recent elections and could be tough to pick off in 2022.
The GOPs top two pickup opportunities are also readily apparent: Arizona and Georgia. Both were among the most narrowly decided states that Biden won, and both have a history of favoring Republicans. Both are home to Democratic incumbents who won their seats in 2020 special elections: Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael G. Warnock . The GOPs path back to a majority begins with reclaiming these two states.
Beyond that, though, obvious GOP opportunities are harder to come by. New Hampshire could be competitive if popular Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Sen. Maggie Hassan , but it has trended in the Democrats favor in recent years, going for Biden by seven points last year. Ditto Nevada, where first-term Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection, but the GOP bench is somewhat limited as the state has also drifted blue in recent years.
Democrats control of the House is arguably more imperiled than their hold on the Senate. Thats a function of the Senate seats that are up for reelection as well as the lay of the land in the House.
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source https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-the-republicans-have-in-the-senate/
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khalilhumam · 5 years ago
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Hold Your Fire, Dueling Democrats
New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/hold-your-fire-dueling-democrats/
Hold Your Fire, Dueling Democrats
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By William A. Galston
Less than 36 hours after the polls closed, Democrats had formed up into their traditional circular firing squad—and this time, after they won the presidency! But Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump was a fraction of what they had expected. The Senate seemed likely to remain in Republican hands. House Democratic leaders had to explain why the gains they expected had turned into significant losses. And despite well-organized efforts, Democrats had failed to flip a single state legislature, allowing Republicans to dominate the redistricting process as they did a decade ago.
Why? Who was to blame? Moderates charged that socialism and “defund the police” had weighed down Democratic candidates in swing districts. Progressives returned fire, arguing that moderates were trying to suppress the new voices in the party that had energized its base of minorities and young people. In a post-election interview, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez critiqued centrists’ campaign strategies and pointed to “the share of white support for Trump” as her biggest surprise and suggested that racism accounted for much of Democrats’ disappointing results. Throughout 2020, Democrats have demanded—rightly—that the fight against the pandemic be evidence-based. They should apply the same standard to their inevitable election post-mortem.  When they do, they will realize that their disappointment reflects the structural features of contemporary politics more than poor choices by strategists and candidates. Let’s begin with two facts. Donald Trump enjoyed—and used—the substantial powers of incumbency to boost his reelection chances—nowhere more aggressively than in Florida. There is nothing unusual about this—it’s one of many reasons why challengers rarely defeat sitting presidents. Whatever the final margin turns out to be, Joe Biden deserves credit for getting the job done. Second, an uncomfortable truth: Donald Trump’s presidency was no fluke. He crystalized and intensified the passions that propelled him to the presidency in 2016; he did not create them, and they have not gone away. He will probably end up with a higher share of the popular vote in defeat than he received in victory four years ago. Trumpism will loom as a massive outcropping in our political landscape for quite some time, and healing the divisions that fuel it will require a less ideological analysis (and self-examination) than Democrats have mustered during the past four years. Biden deserves credit for unifying nearly all the Americans who did not want Donald Trump to be President, a feat Hillary Clinton was unable to accomplish in 2016. Despite repeated warnings that the votes reported on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning would be Trump-heavy and that the “blue shift” would take place days later, Democrats reacted myopically to the early returns. The U.S. Elections Project has estimated that votes will reach a total of 158.8 million, compared to 136.7 million four years ago. If so, it was apparent that after Election Night, 8 million votes remained to be counted, the bulk of them from deep blue states. After these votes are all finally tallied, Joe Biden will likely enjoy a popular vote advantage of at least 6 million—and a winning margin of 4 percentage points or more. He moved five states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona—from the Republican to the Democratic column. By the standards of the close races that have characterized our politics since Ronald Reagan left the scene, this is a substantial victory, not a cause for disappointment, and it came with the highest turnout as a share of the population eligible to vote in more than a century. As partisan polarization has deepened in recent decades, ticket splitting has waned. (A pre-election survey by the Pew Research Center estimated that only 4 percent of the electorate was likely to do so this year.) If so, the outcome of Senate races would be predicted to conform increasingly to each state’s presidential vote. This is exactly what has happened. In 2016, for the first time since the 17th Amendment inaugurated the selection of senators by popular vote, not a single Senate race deviated from the presidential race. In 2020, only Susan Collins—a sui generis candidate in a sui generis state—was able to buck the tide. In Colorado, Biden won big, and so did John Hickenlooper. Biden won Arizona and Michigan by modest margins; so did Mark Kelly and Gary Peters. In Texas, Montana, and Iowa, all of which Biden lost by substantial margins, Democrat Senate candidates could muster no more than 45 percent of the vote. Biden lost North Carolina by 1.3 percent; the Democrats’ senate candidate, Cal Cunningham, by 1.7 percent. And in Georgia, where Biden and Trump are separated by only 14,000 votes out of nearly 5 million cast, both Senate races are headed to runoffs. The bottom line: In contemporary circumstances, Democrats will have a hard time winning Senate races in Republican states during presidential election years. This has little to do with money, message, strategy, or even candidates—and nearly everything to do with the intense partisan polarization that has made widespread ticket-splitting a thing of the past. Yes, Steve Bullock—the popular Democratic governor of Montana—ran 5 points ahead of Joe Biden. But in a state Biden lost by 18 points, it wasn’t nearly enough. Now to the House of Representatives. In 2018, Democrats won 53.4 percent of the votes cast in House races and gained 41 seats, with the highest turnout in a midterm election for more than a century. Although turnout rose across party lines, voter mobilization was massively asymmetrical. Compared to the previous midterm in 2014, Democrats raised their vote from 35.6 million to 60.6 million, a stunning gain of 25 million. By contrast, Republicans were able to increase their total by only 10 million votes. During presidential election years, total votes cast in House races also tend to mirror the presidential vote. So it proved in 2016, and although the total vote for House races this year has yet to be tallied, there can be no doubt that the Democratic advantage over Republicans narrowed substantially from its 2018 peak, in line with a Biden victory margin of at least 3 points lower than the edge House Democrats enjoyed two years ago. Against this backdrop, a narrowed House majority was inevitable. So long as partisanship remains pervasive and intense, House results are likely to vary in line with the presidential outcome in years divisible by four, with massive “wave” elections mostly confined to the midterms. And finally, the presidential contest, where a clear-eyed assessment of the results contradicts many confident predictions. This was supposed to be the “year of the woman,” whose revolt against Donald Trump’s aggressive and disrespectful brand of masculinity was predicted to trigger a massive surge in favor of the Democrats. This did not happen. Compared to 2016, Biden gained only marginally (if at all) among women. Among men, however, he improved on Hillary Clinton’s performance by 5 to 7 points. The predicted outpouring of minority votes did not happen either. Although African Americans voted in greater numbers than four years ago, their share of the electorate was unchanged, and Biden received a slightly lower share of their vote than Hillary Clinton did. Early figures suggest that Trump improved on his 2016 showing among Black men and younger Black voters for whom the civil rights movement and the Great Society are history lessons rather than lived experience. Latinos have equaled or surpassed Blacks as the largest minority group in the electorate, an advantage that is bound to widen in subsequent elections as more Latinos come of voting age. Despite justified concern about Biden’s performance among Latinos in Florida and Texas, he appears to have won roughly the same share of their vote as Hillary Clinton did. Still, the warning light is flashing yellow. “Latino” is a census category, not a group unified by a shared experience. Some have been here for generations; others have just arrived. Their country of origin influences their response to the political options they face in their adopted country. For a Spanish-speaker from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Colombia, socialism is toxic—a sentiment that Trump successfully exploited in Florida, where he received 47 percent of the Latino vote. He also bettered his national showing with this group in Georgia (41 percent), Texas (40 percent), Nevada (37 percent), and Arizona (36 percent). Contrast these results with his showing in California (21 percent) and New York (27 percent), where more Latinos come from Mexico and Puerto Rico. Democrats who view the Latino vote through a bicoastal Blue prism are likely to be led astray, as are those who draw facile analogies between Latinos and African Americans. Latinos may prove to be the Italians of the twenty-first century—a family-oriented, culturally conservative, and entrepreneurial group that gradually assimilates into the general population as the generations pass and discrimination fades. Despite Representative Ocasio-Cortez’s lament about white Americans, Biden scored substantial gains in this group, which still represents at least two-thirds of the electorate, according to the exit polls as well as other sources that many experts believe are more reliable. In fact, his showing among whites explains all his gains over Hillary Clinton in the national vote share; his showing among Black and Latino voters was at best the same as hers, if not a bit worse. He even scored important gains in the heart of the Trump coalition—whites without college degrees. Young adults and first-time voters gave Biden a slightly higher share of their vote than Hillary Clinton received four years ago, but to the dismay of progressives, their share of the electorate did not increase. (Senator Bernie Sanders encountered similar disappointments during his quest for the presidential nomination.) By contrast, Biden was able to slash Trump’s margin among seniors, a bloc with a high propensity to vote, by more than half, and he substantially bettered Hillary Clinton’s showing among moderate and independent voters As for geography, in-depth studies of the election returns by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal show that Biden did much better than Hillary Clinton among suburban voters, who make up about half the electorate. The Times found that in the 373 suburban counties across the country, Biden improved on Clinton’s performance by about 4.6 percentage points. In Georgia, the pro-Biden shift was a massive 8 points, compared to 3 points for Michigan and Wisconsin. As the Journal study underscored, there are different kinds suburbs with distinctive voting patterns. The inner suburbs, which tend to be wealthier and more diverse, lean Democratic, and Biden improved Democrats’ winning margin by about 3 points over Hillary Clinton. In the outer suburbs (“exurbs”), which tend to vote Republican, Biden cut Trump’s edge from 18 percent in 2016 to 12 percent this year. And in the Midwest, Trump’s margin in working-class suburbs declined slightly from four years ago. In other kinds of jurisdictions, Trump improved further on his strong 2016 showing in rural areas and small towns, while Biden’s performance in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee was not significantly better than Clinton’s. Biden’s improved performance in the suburbs surrounding these urban areas was the key to his victory in the Blue Wall states that put him over the top in the Electoral College. In Georgia and Arizona, on the other hand, both big cities and their adjacent suburbs contributed to Biden’s narrow wins. In short, Biden’s strengths were exactly what his backers for the Democratic nomination predicted: He was able to hold Democrats’ gains among the so-called “Rising American Electorate” (women, young adults, urban voters, and minority groups) while substantially improving Democrats’ showing in those groups—men, whites , seniors, and suburbanites—that gave Trump his wafer-thin upset victory four years ago. Gains in these groups almost certainly turned 2016 Democratic losses in the Blue Wall states into vital victories this year and helped move Georgia and Arizona into the Democratic column for the first time in decades. There is good reason to wonder whether any other Democratic nominee could have achieved these results. Democrats are rightly disappointed that President-elect Biden probably will not enjoy the unified support of the legislative branch. Barring Democratic victories in both Georgia Senate runoff elections, much of the progressive agenda will be on hold. If Biden is unable to achieve a working relationship with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, prospects are dim for major legislative accomplishments in the next two years. If McConnell gives priority to the nakedly political objectives that guided him in the first two years of the Obama, Biden’s plea for national healing will go unheeded. For now, anyway, Americans of goodwill in both parties are reduced to hoping that the urgency of the problems Biden will face as he takes the oath of office will move McConnell in the direction of the compromises that are the only alternatives to continuing gridlock, which would inflict further damage on the nation’s health, economy, and social fabric. Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump with a coalition that stretched from the center-right to the progressive left—that ran, as someone remarked, from William Kristol to AOC. To say the least, it will not be easy to unite this diverse assemblage behind a common program. For cultural as well as economic reasons, the issues that unite progressives leave moderate voters uneasy.  Even if McConnell chooses the path of cooperation with the incoming President, the progressive agenda has no chance of getting enacted into law during the first two years of the new Administration. Progressives face a strategic choice. They can put their agenda on hold, accept as necessary the bargains that Biden will be compelled to strike, and turn their energies toward putting Democrats firmly in control of the Senate after the 2020 mid-term elections. Alternatively, they can decide that fighting for their agenda will shift public opinion in their favor, even if they lose, and they will pressure the White House and the Democratic congressional leadership to offer bills that the Senate is bound to reject. The latter course would guarantee a continuation of the gridlock that has frustrated the American people by thwarting progress on so many vital issues, while the former would require committed advocates to display an unusual degree of foresight and restraint. To manage this swirl of pressures from his left and his right, Joe Biden will need all the experience he has acquired and all the skills he has honed during nearly half a century in national public life. It won’t be easy, but this is the hand he has been dealt, and his only option is to play it as well as he can.
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patriotsnet · 4 years ago
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How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-the-republicans-have-in-the-senate/
How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate
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Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects
WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.
Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was by NBC News as the apparent winner.
Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.
Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.
Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the partyâs first gain.
Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.
In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it âtoo early to call.â
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly but the race is rated âtoo close to call.â
Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.
Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.
What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?
alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.
geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.
nrakich : What they said!
United States Senate Elections 2020
November 3, 2020 U.S. Senate Elections by State U.S. House Elections
Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 3, 2020. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for regular election.
Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 3, 2020, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2021.
Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 116th Congress, including 2020 special U.S. Senate elections in Arizona for the seat that John McCain won in 2016 and in Georgia for the seat that Johnny Isakson won in 2016.
Twelve seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2020. Heading into the election, Republicans had a majority with 53 seats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the chamber. The vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
On this page, you will find:
Information on historical wave elections
Republicans On Course To Hold Senate Majority
WASHINGTON D.C, November 4, 2020 The Republican party looks set to hold its majority in the U.S. Senate, as election night draws to a close across the nation.
The latest figures show the Republicans with 47 confirmed seats and the Democrats with 45. At the time of writing only six seats remain unconfirmed: Alaska, Georgia, Georgia Special, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. 
Republicans are on target to hold both North Carolina and Maine, and also have a healthy lead in Michigan which currently has 68% of the vote counted.
Georgia also looks secure for the Republicans, with Sen. Perdue on target to hold his seat. 
Of the six unconfirmed seats, only Georgia Special is without a clear winner and deemed a runoff.
Alaska currently has only 39% of the vote counted, with Rep. Dan Sullivan leading his Democrat challenger by 61.7% to 33.7%. Polls predict that Republicans will hold the seat.
The Democrats took a victory in Colorado, winning the seat from the Republicans, and also took the win in the Arizona Special election, after the death of Republican John McCain left the seat open.
However, the Democrats also lost their Alabama seat, as pro-life Republican Tommy Tuberville won the seat from Sen. Doug Jones.
Republicans have held a majority in the Senate since 2014, and prior to November 3 election night, held 53 seats.
Twitter just deplatformed President Trump premanently! And, other conservatives, including General Flynn and Sidney Powell, were also deplatformed.
Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican
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Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.
1.285%
Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.
Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.
President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.
It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.
Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
Iowa: Joni Ernst Vs Bruce Braley
Republican Joni Ernst defeated Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race to fill the open seat vacated by the retirement of Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic stalwart in the state. Ernst, 44, will be the first female senator to ever represent Iowa, a state that catapulted Barack Obamas career just six years ago.
Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, shocked the political establishment when she won a crowded GOP primary in June. Ernst, a little known state senator, burst onto the national scene after releasing an attention grabbing ad called Squeal, which featured her talking about castrating hogs.
Braley stumbled throughout his campaign from making remarks that insulted some Iowa farmers to threatening a lawsuit against his neighbor over roaming chickens. Republican and Democratic surrogates with potential 2016 ambitions flooded Iowa in the final weeks of the campaign to help their candidates.
Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects
Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.
Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.
Read more here. 
The Winding Road To Democratic Control
Following an anxious four days of waiting after the 2020 general election, nearly all major news networks declared that Joe Biden had exceeded 270 electoral votes and won the presidency. Democrats also retained control of the U.S. House, although their majority has been trimmed back .
But the U.S. Senate still hung in the balance, a tantalizing prize for Democrats dreaming of a trifecta, and a bulwark against a Democratic agenda for Republicans who seek to hold onto some power under the new Biden administration that will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.
Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.
The Senates balance of power teetered on the fulcrum of Georgias two seats, both of which were decided by the January 5th runoff election. Georgia law requires candidates to be voted in with at least 50% of the votes cast; if a candidate does not reach that threshold the two candidates who received the highest number of votes face one another in a runoff election.
Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:
Incumbent David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff .According to Georgias Secretary of State, Perdue received 88,000 more votes than Ossoff, but came up just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. This is in part due to the 115,000 votes that went to Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel who will not appear on the January ballot.
Maine Senate Race A Toss
 With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.
CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.
The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. 
The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
Why Is There An Election In Georgia
The election is being rerun because of Georgia’s rule that a candidate must take 50% of the vote in order to win.
None of the candidates in November’s general election met that threshold.
With 98% of votes counted, US TV networks and the Associated Press news agency called the first of the two races for Mr Warnock.
Control of the Senate in the first two years of Mr Biden’s term will be determined by the outcome of the second run-off.
Mr Warnock is set to become the first black senator for the state of Georgia – a slavery state in the US Civil War – and only the 11th black senator in US history.
He serves as the reverend of the Atlanta church where assassinated civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr grew up and preached.
Claiming victory, he paid tribute to his mother, Verlene, who as a teenager worked as a farm labourer.
“The other day – because this is America – the 82-year-old hands that used to pick somebody else’s cotton went to the polls and picked her youngest son to be a United States senator,” he said.
If both Democrats win, the Senate will be evenly split 50-50, allowing incoming Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. The Democrats narrowly control the House of Representatives.
Mr Ossoff has also claimed victory in his race against Republican Senator David Perdue, but that race is even tighter. At 33, he would be the Senate’s youngest member for 40 years.
Mr Biden won at least seven million more votes than the president.
Us Election 2020: Democrats’ Hopes Of Gaining Control Of Senate Fade
Democrats are rapidly losing hope of gaining control of the US Senate after underperforming in key states.
Controlling the Senate would have allowed them to either obstruct or push through the next president’s agenda.
The party had high hopes of gaining the four necessary seats in Congress’s upper chamber, but many Republican incumbents held their seats.
The Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the lower chamber, the House, but with some key losses.
With many votes still to be counted, the final outcome for both houses may not be known for some time.
Why don’t we have a winner yet?
Among the disappointments for the Democrats was the fight for the seat in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins staved off a fierce challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.
However, the night did see a number of firsts – including the first black openly LGBTQ people ever elected to Congress and the first openly transgender state senator.
The balance of power in the Senate may also change next January. At least one run-off election is due to be held that month in Georgia, since neither candidate has been able to secure more than 50% of votes.
This year’s congressional election is running alongside the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 were Republican-held and 12 were Democrat.
Senators serve six-year terms, and every two years a third of the seats are up for re-election.
Cal Cunningham Concedes North Carolina Senate Race
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Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday, saying in a statement that he had called Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis to congratulate him on his victory.
“I just called Senator Tillis to congratulate him on winning re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate and wished him and his family the best in their continued service in the months and years ahead,” Cunningham said. “The voters have spoken and I respect their decision.”
CBS News projects that Tillis has won the race, after Cunningham’s concession. Tillis led Cunningham by nearly 100,000 votes as of Tuesday. The presidential race in North Carolina is still too close to call, although President Trump is currently in the lead. The full results of the election in North Carolina are unlikely to be known until later this week, as the deadline in the state to receive absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day is November 12.
What Are The Magic Numbers
It depends on who wins the presidency. If its former Vice President Joe Biden, Democrats must flip three seats because new VP Kamala Harris would get to cast any tie-breaking vote. If its President Donald Trump, Democrats would need to flip four seats to seize control of the Senate. They already control the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.
With numerous races still uncalled in the Senate election, so far the Democrats have flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, but Republicans flipped an Alabama seat.
Republicans also beat back Democratic challenges to retain seats in South Carolina, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Maine and Texas. Democrats had launched aggressive challenges in attempts to pick up Senate seats in traditionally Republican areas, but that didnt happen for them.
Either side needs 51 seats to have a majority of seats in the Senate. According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans had reached 48 seats and Democrats were at 47, as of 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on November 4.
However, Republicans were leading in several Senate races that had yet to be called.
In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis declared victory, but, according to WSOC-TV, not all votes had yet been counted and the race was too close to call on November 4.
In one of the two Georgia Senate races, Republican David Perdue was also leading with most returns in.
Where It Stands: Election Hinges On Key States Final Results May Take A While
McConnell is expected to remain leader of the GOP conference if Republicans hold the chamber. During Trump’s first term, McConnell led the effort to remake the federal judiciary with 220 judges confirmed, including three Supreme Court justices.
Democrats hoped that progressives’ concerns about Barrett replacing liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court would help fuel their bid to oust Republicans, who confirmed her just days before Election Day.
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the only Republican to vote against Barrett, was one of the most vulnerable members. But Collins was ahead early Wednesday in her bid against Democratic candidate Sarah Gideon, according to The Associated Press.
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, also a top-tier target for Democrats, was leading in the AP vote count, but the race as of early Wednesday was still too close to call, as was North Carolina’s choice for president.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats hoped to win one or both Senate seats in Georgia. The contest between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has not yet been called by the AP. And the special election for the other seat will go to a runoff because no candidate received 50% of the vote Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor from Atlanta, on Jan. 5.
McConnell said the outcome of the presidential race is still unsettled and it may be another day or more before key Senate races are decided.
Could Flip Under The Right Conditions: Michigan Iowa Montana Kansas And Georgia Special Election
Michigan: Michigan is one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race, and the reelection bid of Sen. Gary Peters will get caught up in that. Democrats say the fact that the coronavirus has hit Michigan hard makes it more likely Biden can win this state, which was crucial to Trumps 2016 victory. In the Senate race, Republicans have made a big deal out of John James, an Iraq War veteran and conservative media darling. James has outraised Peters for three straight quarters and is close to having as much money as Peters in the bank. Democrats argue Republicans are too bullish on a candidate who also lost a Senate race against a Democrat in 2018. Polls have shown this race close between the two.
Montana: Can a popular Democratic governor who won in Trump country unseat a sitting Republican senator? Term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock , a former 2020 presidential candidate, is running against Sen. Steve Daines . Bullock is the Democrat with the best shot, given hes won three times statewide, including when Trump swept the state in 2016. And in 2018, Sen. Jon Tester won a tough reelection fight. But can Bullock unseat a sitting Republican senator in a state that some strategists estimate could vote for Trump by as many as 20 points?
Democrats Probably Need To Win All Four Toss
There remain some big wild cards in the race for the Senate majority: Neither side has a handle yet on how the coronavirus pandemic, or the race between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden, will shape individual Senate races.
Democrats, once seen as a long shot to take the majority from Republicans in November, have had a lot go their way in recent months. Theyve persuaded some choice candidates to jump in and make races more competitive, and their fundraising has been strong.
But to pick up at least four Senate seats, Democrats probably have to win all four toss-up races. That, plus a win by Biden, would give them an effective Senate majority, since his vice president could cast tie-breaking votes.
With a lot more unknowns than normal at this point in the election cycle, here are the 10 races most likely to flip. Because so many races are so close, rather than rank them, I grouped them into three tiers: Likely to flip; Toss-ups; Could flip under the right conditions.
Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder
Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.
President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.
The Brennan Center has that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.
Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.
Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.
Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.
Potentially Competitive Us Senate Races In 2022
Held by Republicans
Maggie Hassan Biden +7.4
The Democrats could also have opportunities in Ohio, where Sen. Rob Portman is retiring, and in Florida, home of Sen. Marco Rubio , but both of these once-preeminent swing states have drifted toward the GOP in recent elections and could be tough to pick off in 2022.
The GOPs top two pickup opportunities are also readily apparent: Arizona and Georgia. Both were among the most narrowly decided states that Biden won, and both have a history of favoring Republicans. Both are home to Democratic incumbents who won their seats in 2020 special elections: Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael G. Warnock . The GOPs path back to a majority begins with reclaiming these two states.
Beyond that, though, obvious GOP opportunities are harder to come by. New Hampshire could be competitive if popular Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Sen. Maggie Hassan , but it has trended in the Democrats favor in recent years, going for Biden by seven points last year. Ditto Nevada, where first-term Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection, but the GOP bench is somewhat limited as the state has also drifted blue in recent years.
Democrats control of the House is arguably more imperiled than their hold on the Senate. Thats a function of the Senate seats that are up for reelection as well as the lay of the land in the House.
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getfastestnews · 5 years ago
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US Republican party tries to save its Senate majority, with or without Trump
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United States Senate Republicans are fighting to save their majority, a final election push against the onslaught of challengers in states once off-limits to Democrats but now hotbeds of a potential backlash to President Donald Trump and his allies on Capitol Hill.
Fueling the campaigns are the Trump administration's handling of the Covid-19 crisis, shifting regional demographics and, in some areas, simply the chance to turn the page on the divisive political climate.
Control of the US Senate can make or break a presidency. With it, a reelected Trump could confirm his nominees and ensure a backstop against legislation from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, (Democrat California). Without it, Joe Biden would face a potential wall of opposition to his agenda if the Democratic nominee won the White House.
In North Carolina, for example, the match-up between GOP Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, among the most expensive in the nation, is close.
“At some point, you put it in the hands of voters,” said Dallas Woodhouse, a former executive director of the state’s Republican Party.
Republican incumbents are straining for survival from New England to the Deep South, in the heartland and the West and even Alaska. Overpowered in fundraising and stuck in Washington until just last week to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, they are fanning out some alongside Trump for last-ditch, home-state tours to shore up votes.
With the chamber now split, 53-47, three or four seats will determine Senate control, depending on which party wins the White House. The vice president breaks a tie in Senate votes.
What started as a lopsided election cycle with Republicans defending 23 seats, compared with 12 for Democrats, quickly became a more stark referendum on the president as Democrats reached deeper into Trump country and put the GOP on defense.
Suddenly some of the nation’s better-known senators — Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, Susan Collins in Maine — faced strong reelection threats. Only two Democratic seats are being seriously contested, while at least 10 GOP-held seats are at risk.
“I don’t see how we hold it,” said Chip Felkel, a Republican strategist in South Carolina who opposes the president.
Felkel added: “You’d be hard pressed to admit we don’t have a Trump problem.”
The political landscape is quickly changing from six years ago when most of these senators last faced voters. It’s a reminder of how sharp the national mood has shifted in the Trump era.
Younger voters and more minorities are pushing some states toward Democrats, including in Colorado, where the parties have essentially stopped spending money for or against GOP Senator Cory Gardner because it seems he is heading toward defeat by Democrat John Hickenlooper, a former governor.
In more Republican-friendly terrain, the GOP senators must balance an appeal to Trump’s most ardent supporters with outreach to voters largely in suburbs who are drifting away from the president and his tone.
Tillis is struggling to gain ground in North Carolina, a presidential battleground, even after Cunningham’s sex-texting scandal with an aide.
Arizona could see two Democratic senators for the first time since last century if former astronaut Mark Kelly maintains his advantage over GOP Senator Martha McSally for the seat held by the late Republican John McCain.
A vivid dynamic is in Iowa, a state Trump won in 2016 but is now a toss-up as Senator Joni Ernst struggles to fend off Democrat newcomer Theresa Greenfield. Ernst wowed Republicans with a 2014 debut ad about castrating hogs but she faced criticism after last month’s debate when she stumbled over the break-even price for soybeans.
In Georgia, Trump calls David Perdue his favorite senator among the many who have jockeyed to join his golf outings and receive his private phone calls. But the first-term senator faces a surge of new voters in the state and Democrat Jon Ossoff is playing hardball.
Ossoff called Perdue a “crook” over the senator’s stock trades during the pandemic. Perdue shot back that the Ossoff would do anything to mislead Georgians about Democrats’ “radical and socialist” agenda.
Democrats have tapped into what some are calling a “green wave” — a new era of fundraising — as small-dollar donations pour in from across the country from Americans expressing their political activism with their pocketbooks.
Graham’s challenger in South Carolina, Jamie Harrison, has raised so much money — some $100 million — that it sent the top Trump ally scrambling to take the race seriously. Graham swiftly raked in his own record haul as he led the Senate confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.
Competitive races are underway in Republican strongholds of Texas, Kansas and Alaska where little known Al Gross broke state records, Democrats said, in part with viral ads introducing voters to the military-veteran-turned-doctor who once fought off a grizzly bear.
Swooping in to fill the gap for Republicans is the Senate Leadership Fund, tapping deep-pocketed donors. Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson has funneled more than $60 million to help Republicans hold the Senate.
Over the weekend, the fund was pouring $4.6m to one of the rare Republican bright spots — in Michigan, where John James, a Black Republican businessman is gaining on Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
“We see a potential opportunity,” said Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law.
The only other state where Republicans are playing offense is Alabama, where Democratic Senator Doug Jones pulled off a rare special election win the Trump stronghold but now wages a longshot campaign against Republican Tommy Tuberville, a former Auburn football coach.
“We are confident heading into the home stretch because we remain on offence is so many seats across the country,” said Stewart Boss, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
The Covid crisis has shadowed the Senate races as Democrats linked Trump’s handling of the pandemic to the GOP’s repeated attempts to undo the Obama-era Affordable Care Act, particularly its insurance protections for those with preexisting medical conditions. Republicans fired back that Democrats want to keep the economy closed, hurting jobs.
David Flaherty, a Colorado-based Republican pollster, said his surveys are showing that Covid will be “the most likely issue many voters will make their decisions on".
“In more places in the country than not, the president is not getting good marks” on that, Flaherty said, and it’s damaging Senate GOP candidates, “especially those in lockstep with the president.”
Several races may drag well past election night including if no candidate secures a majority, including in Georgia or Maine, where Collins was once considered among the most independent senators, is now confronting critics from the right and left.
Jesse Hunt, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee said the races are tightening in the final days.
“We always knew this was going to be a competitive election cycle,” he said.
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truck-fump · 5 years ago
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6 Crucial Races That Will Flip the SenateThis November, we have...
New Post has been published on https://robertreich.org/post/629984091895480320
6 Crucial Races That Will Flip the SenateThis November, we have...
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6 Crucial Races That Will Flip the Senate
This November, we have an opportunity to harness your energy and momentum into political power and not just defeat Trump, but also flip the Senate. Here are six key races you should be paying attention to.
1. The first is North Carolina Republican senator Thom Tillis, notable for his “olympic gold” flip-flops. He voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, then offered a loophole-filled replacement that excluded many with preexisting conditions. In 2014 Tillis took the position that climate change was “not a fact” and later urged Trump to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, before begrudgingly acknowledging the realities of climate change in 2018. And in 2019, although briefly opposing Trump’s emergency border wall declaration, he almost immediately caved to pressure.
But Tillis’ real legacy is the restrictive 2013 voter suppression law he helped pass as Speaker of the North Carolina House. The federal judge who struck down the egregious law said its provisions “targeted African Americans with almost surgical precision.”
Enter Democrat Cal Cunningham, who unlike his opponent, is taking no money from corporate PACs. Cunningham is a veteran who supports overturning the Supreme Court’s disastrous Citizens United decision, restoring the Voting Rights Act, and advancing other policies that would expand access to the ballot box.
2. Maine Senator Susan Collins, a self-proclaimed moderate whose unpopularity has made her especially vulnerable, once said that Trump was unworthy of the presidency. Unfortunately, she spent the last four years enabling his worst behavior. Collins voted to confirm Trump’s judges, including Brett Kavanaugh, and voted to acquit Trump in the impeachment trial, saying he had “learned his lesson” through the process alone. Rubbish.
Collins’ opponent is Sara Gideon, speaker of the House in Maine. As Speaker, Gideon pushed Maine to adopt ambitious climate legislation, anti-poverty initiatives, and ranked choice voting. And unlike Collins, Gideon supports comprehensive democracy reforms to ensure politicians are accountable to the people, not billionaire donors.
Another Collins term would be six more years of cowardly appeasement, no matter the cost to our democracy.
3. Down in South Carolina, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is also vulnerable. Graham once said he’d “rather lose without Donald Trump than try to win with him.” But after refusing to vote for him in 2016, Graham spent the last four years becoming one of Trump’s most reliable enablers. Graham also introduced legislation to end birthright citizenship, lobbied for heavy restrictions on reproductive rights, and vigorously defended Brett Kavanaugh. Earlier this year, he said that pandemic relief benefits would only be renewed over his dead body.
His opponent, Democrat Jaime Harrison, has brought the race into a dead heat with his bold vision for a “New South.” Harrison’s platform centers on expanding access to healthcare, enacting paid family and sick leave, and investing in climate resistant infrastructure.
Graham once said that if the Republicans nominated Trump the party would “get destroyed,” and “deserve it.” We should heed his words, and help Jaime Harrison replace him in the Senate.
4. Let’s turn to Montana’s Senate race. The incumbent, Republican Steve Daines, has defended Trump’s racist tweets, thanked him for tear-gassing peaceful protestors, and parroted his push to reopen the country during the pandemic as early as May.
Daine’s challenger is former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock is proof that Democratic policies can actually gain support in supposedly red states because they benefit people, not the wealthy and corporations. During his two terms, he oversaw the expansion of Medicaid, prevented the passage of union-busting laws, and vetoed two extreme bills that restricted access to abortions.The choice here, once again, is a no-brainer.
5. In Iowa, like Montana, is a state full of surprises. After the state voted for Obama twice, Republican Joni Ernst won her Senate seat in 2014. Her win was a boon for her corporate backers, but has been a disaster for everyone else.
Ernst, a staunch Trump ally, holds a slew of fringe opinions. She pushed anti-abortion laws that would have outlawed most contraception, shared her belief that states can nullify federal laws, and has hinted that she wants to privatize or fundamentally alter social security “behind closed doors.”
Her opponent, Democrat Theresa Greenfield, is a firm supporter of a strong social safety net because she knows its importance firsthand. Union and Social Security survivor benefits helped her rebuild her life after the tragic death of her spouse. With the crippling impact of coronavirus at the forefront of Americans’ minds, Greenfield would be a much needed advocate in the Senate.
6. In Arizona, incumbent Senate Republican Martha McSally is facing Democrat Mark Kelly. Two months after being defeated by Democrat Kyrsten SINema for Arizona’s other Senate seat, McSally was appointed to fill John McCain’s seat following his death. Since then, she’s used that seat to praise Trump and confirm industry lobbyists to agencies like the EPA, and keep cities from receiving additional funds to fight COVID-19. As she voted to block coronavirus relief funds, McSally even had the audacity to ask supporters to “fast a meal” to help support her campaign.
Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, became a gun-control activist following the attempt on her life in 2011. His support of universal background checks and crucial policies on the climate crisis, reproductive health, and wealth inequality make him the clear choice.
These are just a few of the important Senate races happening this year.
In addition, the entire House of Representatives will be on the ballot, along with 86 state legislative chambers and thousands of local seats.
Winning the White House is absolutely crucial, but it’s just one piece of the fight to save our democracy and push a people’s agenda. Securing victories in state legislatures is essential to stopping the GOP’s plans to entrench minority rule through gerrymandered congressional districts and restrictive voting laws — and it’s often state-level policies that have the biggest impact on our everyday lives. Even small changes to the makeup of a body like the Texas Board of Education, which determines textbook content for much of the country, will make a huge difference.
Plus, every school board member, state representative, and congressperson you elect can be pushed to enact policies that benefit the people, not just corporate donors.
This is how you build a movement that lasts.
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epacer · 5 years ago
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Cal Ed
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Widespread distance learning means more student information is going online
As California students are forced to learn at home due to the COVID-19 pandemic, public schools are handing over more of kids’ learning to educational online programs and apps.
They may be handing over student information too.
Public schools are encouraging students to use a variety of apps and websites for learning — including videoconferencing apps like Zoom, learning platform websites like Google Classroom, activity websites like BrainPop, educational game websites like ABCya, and even websites that aren’t strictly educational, like YouTube.
Parents should be aware that such websites and apps collect significant amounts of personal information about students, experts and advocates say.
“Students are in a difficult position .… Schools are required to use these ed tech platforms and there really is no option, unless you want to withdraw from the school,” said Cheri Kiesecker, co-chair of the national Parent Coalition for Student Privacy.
“It’s unfortunate that schools had to do this massive shift so suddenly, without a lot of time to ensure that privacy was one of the paramount things they were looking at.”
The kinds of data that could be collected on students include biometric data, such as images of their faces; behavioral data, such as how much time they spend on a website or on a test question; demographic data; geolocation data, and academic performance data, such as test scores.
State law prohibits online education companies from selling student data to third parties.
But privacy advocates say these companies’ data collection has shifted from direct advertising to automatic tracking of students’ online activity. Some companies could use that tracking to accumulate data profiles that students don’t see.
Yet data privacy is often not the first thing on parents’ minds as they’re quickly transitioning to using online tools, said Girard Kelly, privacy counsel for Common Sense Media, a nonprofit that reviews children’s technology and entertainment.
“Parents are just downloading whatever they can get to supplement their child’s learning at home,” Kelly said.
“There are more students probably using apps with less privacy-protecting measures than ever before — which is why it’s so important, before parents and educators download an app, to think about privacy.”
Most ed tech products have substandard privacy policies, according to a 2019 report by Common Sense Media, which grades hundreds of educational apps for the transparency and quality of their privacy policies.
About 80 percent of the 150 educational technology products included in the 2019 report did not meet the nonprofit’s minimum safeguards for privacy, either because they did not clearly outline adequate safeguards or because they lacked a detailed privacy policy.
Deep Sran, vice president of learning for Achieve3000 — a digital program used by many school districts to help students with reading — said ed tech companies have a major interest in ensuring student data privacy. He said his company takes data privacy “very seriously” as more states, including California, have adopted student data privacy laws in recent years.
“In this industry, you have to be very careful about student data,” Sran said.
Sran said hundreds of thousands of students nationwide have started using Achieve3000 since the pandemic began.
“We’re definitely seeing an increased need,” Sran said. “Technology was still seen, in some cases, as supplemental to the classroom work. Now, I think it’s ... absolutely essential.”
California’s student privacy law is considered one of the strongest. The state’s Student Online Personal Information Protection Act, dated 2014, makes it illegal for K-12 online companies to sell students’ information.
Nor can they use personal information to target advertising to students or create profiles of students for commercial use.
Still, California’s law doesn’t limit the kinds of data companies can collect, nor does it require companies to list all the kinds of data they collect and what exactly they’re using it for, according to the Electronic Privacy Information Center.
“Unless the school district has already negotiated a privacy contract with the vendor, it’s difficult for them to know what the vendor is actually doing with that data,” said Andrea Bennett, executive director of California IT in Education, an association of IT professionals working in schools.
And while companies cannot sell personal data to third parties, they can still share it.
For example, Canvas, a learning platform used by school districts in San Diego County, says in its privacy policy that users’ information may be shared with third parties in order to provide services through the site.
Achieve3000 says in its privacy policy that it collects several kinds of student data from school districts, including students’ race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, grades, test scores and disabilities.
Sran said Achieve3000 uses the data to customize learning for students and to show schools how students are performing.
It also may use that data for marketing, but it first removes information that identifies students, its privacy policy says.
The policy also says Achieve3000 may collect data about students from connected third-party websites, such as Facebook and Google.
Sran said Achieve3000 is certified as compliant with federal student privacy law by iKeepSafe, an organization that certifies online products for privacy law compliance.
Sran noted that Achieve3000 does not sell data to third parties and does not target advertising to students. Sran said he could not explain why Achieve3000 collects information from social media sites.
Resources for parents
Common Sense Media has published its own website, Wide Open School, that families can use to educate kids at home, Kelly said.
It offers daily schedules for kids, live virtual events like storytimes and drawing lessons, learning resources for various subjects and parent guides for using apps like Zoom and Google Classroom.
Wide Open School includes educational apps that Common Sense Media believes are “the best of the best” in terms of quality and privacy, Kelly said.
Parents can also read Common Sense Media’s hundreds of privacy evaluations, which detail which protections are and are not included in educational apps’ privacy policies.
Parents can see which ed tech apps their school districts are using in a database published by the Student Data Privacy Consortium, a nationwide group that works to strengthen data privacy practices.
In the database, parents can see the contracts their school districts have signed with ed tech companies. The consortium also offers a contract template with privacy protections districts can use when buying ed tech products.
Bennett noted that individual teachers may be using apps on their own that their school district doesn’t have a contract for.
Of San Diego County’s 42 school districts, 17, plus the San Diego County Office of Education, are part of the consortium, but some don’t have their ed tech contracts on the consortium’s website. *Reposted article from the UT by Kristen Taketa of May 16, 2020
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uzone-uploads · 5 years ago
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Is Tech Making Concrete Floor Decorative Paint Better Or Worse?
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sciencespies · 6 years ago
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Communities search for ways to live with growing fire threat
https://sciencespies.com/environment/communities-search-for-ways-to-live-with-growing-fire-threat/
Communities search for ways to live with growing fire threat
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by Anton L. Delgado and Dustin Patar
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In this photo taken June 11, 2019, is a sign outside Shingletown, Calif. The town got its name from its heyday making wooden roofing materials. The wildfire-vulnerable town has two nicknames, Little Paradise and Gateway to Mount Lassen. Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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Unless it’s Sunday, Kelly Loew is steering her rusty red Jeep down the same mail route in Shingletown, as she has six days a week for the last seven years. But she delivers less mail these days as California’s persistent wildfires drive residents away.
Last year, California experienced its deadliest and most destructive wildfire season. Shingletown, nicknamed Little Paradise, is one of the state’s most wildfire-vulnerable communities.
Despite the National Interagency Fire Center recording federal fire suppression costs quadrupling since 1989, the damage caused by wildfires has increased fivefold.
“The fear is palpable,” Loew said. “When I drive home through my neighborhood, I see tinderboxes everywhere.”
According to data from the National Catastrophe Service, wildfires over the past decade have resulted in more than $52 billion in insured losses across the country. Flames have burned nearly 49,000 structures across the U.S. since 2014, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. That’s more structures lost than in the previous 14 years combined.
“We shouldn’t be surprised that we’re seeing not only our cities growing, but lots of people taking over what had been rural landscapes and making them an urban environment,” said Stephen Pyne, a wildfire historian. “People like to live in lots of areas that are full of natural hazards and it’s very hard in the American system to tell people they can’t do what they want on their property.”
This summer, the Woodbury Fire northwest of Superior, Arizona, burned close to 124,000 acres and prompted a mandatory evacuation of Roosevelt and nearby communities. It’s the fifth largest wildfire in state history.
“My mind was on overload. I have to pack this, I have to pack that. … Plus you have to pack your personal stuff,” said Pat Spencer, a business owner in Roosevelt, Arizona. “Everybody was like, ‘Why are you packing it up?’ I said, ‘Just to be safe, rather than sorry.'”
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In this photo taken June 13, 2019, is Kelly Loew creating a defensible space around her home in Shingletown, Calif., by trimming pine branches and burning them in a pile. It’s a common but dangerous practice in the forested community. Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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Among her most important possessions: three figurines of angels embracing firefighters. Spencer has six firefighters in her family. Three of them—her son, husband and nephew—spent more than a week battling the Woodbury Fire, which broke out June 8.
Last year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, Arizona had 838 wildfires more than the U.S. state average, placing it among the top 10 in the nation. The data show that in the first six months of 2019, wildfires in Arizona have burned more land than was burned in all of 2018. Seven other states, including Alaska and Rhode Island, have shown the same trend.
Over the past three decades, the number of wildfires declared major disasters by the Federal Emergency Management Agency has been steadily growing, with 19 since 2009. Nearly 68% occurred in California, Colorado and Oklahoma; the others were in Texas, Washington, Tennessee and Montana.
The cost of wildfire recovery often falls to individual states. To get federal dollars flowing, the governor has to request a disaster declaration and FEMA must recommend it to the president, who can deny or approve it.
But while the number of wildfire disaster declarations has grown in the past two decades, only 16.2% of wildfires larger than 100,000 acres have been declared major disasters, which is about 0.002% of all wildfires in the past 20 years.
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TINDERBOXES EVERYWHERE
“Being human means there’s risk of some sort in your life,” Loew said. “If you’re looking for a quiet mountain town with a good community, a good school and great people, this is the place to be. … I don’t know why people wouldn’t want to live here.”
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In this photo taken June 7, 2019, most homes in Shingletown, Calif., are barely visible through the thick trees of Shasta County, California. The town got its name from its heyday making wooden roofing materials. The wildfire-vulnerable town has two nicknames, Little Paradise and Gateway to Mount Lassen. Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2010 Wildland Urban Interface report, Shingletown is an intermixed community, meaning housing and wildland vegetation intermingle, which increases wildfire risk.
The report shows over 39 million people across the country live in forested communities like Shingletown. More than half live in 10 states: Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, New York, California, Florida, Virginia, South Carolina and Alabama.
In California, more than 1.74 million residents live in such communities. Since the report came out in 2010, more structures have been burned in the Golden State than anywhere else in the United States.
The more than 41,000 burned structures in California is nearly 13 times more than the next state, Texas, which had 3,222 structures burned in the same time span.
“Fueled by drought, an unprecedented buildup of dry vegetation and extreme winds, the size and intensity of these wildfires caused the loss of more than 100 lives, destroyed thousands of homes and exposed millions of urban and rural Californians to unhealthy air,” according to a February report by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, known as Cal Fire.
More than 25 million acres of California wildlands are classified as under very high or extreme fire threat. The report blames “climate change, an epidemic of dead and dying trees, and the proliferation of new homes in the wildland urban interface.”
Research by the University of Idaho in 2016 found that wildfires in the West have been made worse by higher temperatures associated with climate change. Warmer air has made forests drier, making vegetation more flammable and better wildfire fuel.
Shingletown, named after its historic production of wooden shingles, is considered vulnerable because of its average age of 61, its median household income of $42,000—more than $18,000 less than the national median—and its location in the foothills of the Cascade Range.
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In this photo taken June 6, 2019, in the footprint of the 2018 Carr Fire, members of Cal Fire and the California National Guard grind dead vegetation to mitigate the wildfire risk in Shasta County, California. Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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To prevent larger wildfires, Cal Fire plans to grind down vegetation. Its top priority project is to create defensible space, along Shingletown’s main road, State Route 44.
In a low-income community like Shingletown, not everyone can afford to create defensible space. Some simply burn the flammable brush, known as slash, in their yards.
“Every slash pile being burned has the potential of getting away,” said Tom Twist, deputy chief of the Shingletown Fire Safe Council, which offers a program that gives residents access to a site to dump flammable vegetation. “We want to reduce the chances of what we call doorstep burn piles.”
California Assemblyman Jim Wood said he’s been working to find funding for wildfire prevention since wildfires in 2017 killed 44 people in Northern California, which until last year, were the most destructive in state history.
In November 2018, the Camp Fire in Butte County killed 86 people and destroyed close to 12,000 structures. That made it the deadliest wildfire since the 1918 Cloquet Fire, which killed more than 450 people in Minnesota.
Wood, a dentist by trade, volunteered with local authorities to use dental records to identify victims in Paradise. Less than a month later, he proposed Bill AB38, which would establish a $1 billion fund meant to financially aid low-income residents to fireproof their homes. The bill passed but was stripped of funding.
“The legislative process is not perfect,” Wood said. “But the commitment I have to trying to find a funding source … to help people protect their homes isn’t going away.”
California’s building code requires homes in fire-prone regions built after 2008 to have fire resistant roofs and siding, and other safeguards. This year, a similar amendment was passed in Oregon, which had the sixth most wildfires in 2018. Both codes require homeowners to pay for it.
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In this photo taken June 8, 2019, is Tom Twist, deputy chief of the Fire Safe Council in Shingletown, Calif. Twist says the dump site eliminates the chance of wildfire. “We want to reduce the chances of what we call doorstep burn piles.” Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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In 2010, 40 million people in the country lived in forested communities, approximately 1-in-10 Americans. But despite the risk of wildfires, building projects continue to be approved in areas still recovering from previous blazes.
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FIGHT OR FLIGHT
Twist, of the Shingletown Fire Safe Council, said he sees this as his second war. He served two tours in Vietnam—first in the infantry, then in the air cavalry.
“There is a lot of correlation between warfare between humans and warfare between humans and the environment,” he said. “When the fire comes … it’s chaotic for the first several hours until people settle in. It’s the same in a firefight.”
To control the chaos, Twist has been pushing to install SR-7 wildfire early-detection systems, which use infrared and optical cameras to detect growing wildfires.
“The Camp Fire is a prime example of what happens when you’re dealing with inadequate information in a rapidly developing wildfire,” he said. “If the SR-7 system had been deployed … it would have detected the fire and it would have given the people of Paradise about an hour and a half more time to evacuate.”
In June, residents of Roosevelt, Arizona, had a day’s warning before they had to flee the Woodbury Fire.
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In this photo taken June 21, 2019, hotshot crews return to their camps as smoke from the Woodbury Fire rises over the Superstition Wilderness in central Arizona. Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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“We want people to be ready to go. If it’s moving towards them, when we say go, we want them to grab their bags and get out of there,” Dick Fleishman, a National Forest Service fire information officer, said the day before the June 20 evacuation.
Spencer spent five days working on her brother’s yard waiting for the threat to be extinguished and the evacuation lifted. She was among the first to re-enter Roosevelt Estates.
“In the name of the Father, the Son, the Holy Spirit, Amen. Thank you, Lord, for protecting us, for protecting our homes. Thank you, Lord, for protecting our firefighters; without them our homes would not be safe,” Spencer said. “There are just no words, but thank God we are home. There’s no place like home. Amen.”
As she prayed, Spencer’s eldest son and nephew were still on the fire line.
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PRESCRIBED POTENTIAL
David Rubalcaba, 56, has been working fires for nearly half his life. As a hotshot, his job was to rappel from helicopters into wildfires across the country. He did that until 2003, when a burning sequoia crushed his left hand in California.
Now, as the assistant fire management officer—or “burn boss”—for the Karuk Tribe in Northern California, Rubalcaba’s job is to ignite and control prescribed burns. The forest management technique guides the destruction of vegetation that could fuel future wildfires.
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In this photo taken June 26, 2019, a reflective mural of The Last Supper and three firefighter figurines were among the first things Pat Spencer unpacked after the mandatory evacuation over Roosevelt, Ariz., was lifted during the Woodbury Fire. Her husband, John, watches as she hangs up the mural. Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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“I came to the realization one day that firefighting is the problem. I wanted to become part of the solution, and so I got into prescribed fire,” Rubalcaba said. “Prescribed fire is the big thing now because it’s the only solution to this catastrophic event we’re having annually with fire.”
For the first time since the 1920s, data from the National Interagency Fire Center has recorded the amount of acreage being burned by wildfires increasing. Federal fire suppression costs quadrupled to nearly $18.5 billion from $4.5 billion 20 years ago.
In the same time span, wildfire damages have increased fivefold with more than $52 billion in damages this last decade, according to the National Catastrophe Service, which analyzes disasters to assess risk management.
Last year, President Donald Trump signed an executive order pushing for federal land management and wildfire risk reduction, which said “post-fire assessments show that reducing vegetation through hazardous fuel management … is effective in reducing wildfire severity and loss.”
To better respond to wildfires, firefighting agencies divided the U.S. into 10 geographic regions. The Southern region leads the country with more than 25 million acres of prescribed fires in the past decade—twice the amount of the nine other regions combined.
According to the annual wildland fire summary and statistics report, for the past two decades the Southern region is one of only two regions that has had more land burned by prescribed fires than by wildfires. In 2018, four of the five states with the most wildfires were in the Southern region: Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. But none was in the top five for most land burned.
Research published this year by Crystal Kolden, a wildfire expert and professor in the department of forest, rangeland and fire sciences at the University of Idaho, shows that the region’s use of prescribed burns “may be one of the reasons why the Southeastern states have experienced far fewer wildfire disasters relative to the Western U.S.”
In 2018, California had the most amount of land burned and the second most wildfires. The two regions that represent the state have burned roughly 2.4% of the Southern regions’ total in the past decade.
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In this photo taken June 12, 2019, David Rubalcaba, known as the “Burn Boss” of the Karuk Nation in Northern California, supervises all prescribed burns on tribal land. The former smoke jumper took the job after a burning tree crushed his left hand in 2003. “I came to the realization one day that firefighting is the problem. I wanted to become part of the solution, and so I got into prescribed fire,” Rubalcaba said. Despite federal fire suppression costs quadrupling and an increase in employed firefighters, the damages caused by wildfires has increased fivefold. (Anton L. Delgado/News21 via AP)
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“Fire is a driverless car,” Pyne said. “It’s barreling down the road integrating everything around it and at some point, it may be a really sharp curve called climate change. Another point it may be a really tricky intersection called wildland urban interface. It may just be filled with road hazards leftover from logging or past fires.
“There is no fix to the fire problem. … We have to live with it.”
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Prescribed burning to combat wildfires has not increased in the U.S. West
© 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Citation: Communities search for ways to live with growing fire threat (2019, September 22) retrieved 22 September 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2019-09-ways-threat.html
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creativesage · 6 years ago
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(via The #Angels All-Female Investing Fund Is Shaping the Future of Silicon Valley)
Borrowing from the bro playbook, six former colleagues launch an angel investing plan to get in on Silicon Valley’s billions.
By Jo Piazza
It all started at the Twitter salad bar. A handful of women who made up a good portion of the company’s top executives began talking about angel investing—when an individual swaps a chunk of his or her personal wealth for a slice of ownership in a company at its earliest stages—as they sprinkled their quinoa and cherry tomatoes with flaxseeds. Specifically, they asked, why were all the guys they knew getting asked to invest in early-stage companies, but not them?
The venture world tends to involve a lot of tribal knowledge traded among tight fraternal networks. It’s a group whose members make money by spending money, using their or others’ personal wealth to bet big. When their gambles pay off, they have even more money to shape the future of Silicon Valley—which, in many cases, means the future of the country. “When you think about how power structures are formed in the Valley, it’s the founders and investors who create multibillion-dollar companies who can go on to found more companies and form philanthropies and fund political campaigns and determine what products get made,” says Jana Messerschmidt, who left her role as Twitter’s vice president of global business development and platform in 2016 and recently joined Lightspeed Venture Partners as a partner. “When you have such a concentration of that wealth going to white men, of course the world is shaped through their eyes.”
“When you have such a concentration of that wealth going to white men, of course the world is shaped through their eyes.”
After all, the six women have seen that power structure firsthand. They were raised in the church of Jack Dorsey, the prolific and sometimes controversial cofounder whose companies, Twitter and Square, have made him a billionaire. All of the women respect—and, in some ways, revere—Dorsey as a leader, but they also know that men like Dorsey, especially those who invested early, have a wealth and subsequent influence that make their voices heard by powerful leaders. (Dorsey has spent time with Barack Obama; Chile’s president, Sebastián Piñera; and Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to name a few.)
The women joked about their missing invitations to the investing party until, suddenly, the joking turned serious. They knew they would be better, stronger, and more efficient investors if they worked together. In January 2015, the group met at April Underwood’s tiny apartment, across the street from Twitter in San Francisco. “I could practically see my desk from my bedroom,” remembers Underwood, the former director of product at Twitter who recently left her role as chief product officer at Slack to pursue investing. In addition to Underwood and Messerschmidt, there were four other Twitter execs: Chloe Sladden, then an advisor, investor, and formerly Twitter's vice president of media; Jessica Verrilli, then vice president of corporate development and strategy; Katie Jacobs Stanton, then vice president of global media; and Vijaya Gadde, chief legal officer. “There was wine, a spreadsheet to organize potential investments, and a lot of laughter,” says Stanton, who left Twitter in 2016 to join genetic-testing company Color Genomics as its chief marketing officer and recently became a full-time investor. They decided to create a platform to share information about deals, not a fund that pooled all their money together. They also learned that to be an angel investor, all you have to do is say you’re an angel investor. In March, they wrote a blog post about their new venture, calling themselves #Angels, and, of course, posted it to Twitter. Founders behind companies like Buoyant, Threads, and Lovevery started reaching out shortly after.
Here’s how #Angels works: When one woman is approached about or seeks a potential investment, that person does the due diligence, fields the initial phone calls and meetings, and takes copious notes. Whether she’s convinced or not, she presents the opportunity to the group. That’s when each #Angel can make the decision to invest her own money in a company. (This structure is known as deal syndication, a model Stanton says is common among male investors.)
“I didn’t really have a huge wad to start,” Stanton says. “Most angel investments take a minimum of $25,000, which is a lot of money—and you have to assume you’re going to lose it all. Most of the women I know don’t want to lose any money. It’s so hard to make $25,000, let alone invest it.” Stanton negotiated her first investment—a $10,000 stake in Lowercase Capital, Chris Sacca’s venture firm. “It was all I had,” she says. “Fortunately, it did well.” (Lowercase invested in Twitter, Uber, and Instagram.) That savvy proved helpful as she dug deeper into the investing world via #Angels.
Every other Tuesday the #Angels have a conference call. It isn’t unusual for someone to be sitting in an airport getting ready for a flight, speeding home on US 101, breastfeeding, or shushing an overactive toddler. “There’s no judgment,” Stanton says. “We get it if there’s a baby screaming or a breast pump pumping. We’re all trying to do the best we can.”
The women’s investment interests span dozens of categories. Stanton looks for consumer products that make life better for women, like Brandless and Modern Fertility. Gadde, the sole #Angel who’s still at Twitter—she remains the company’s chief legal officer (the other women have left for executive roles elsewhere or to spend more time on investing)—is attracted to investments that will have a positive impact on the world; in 2017, she bought a stake in One Concern, a company using machine learning and artificial intelligence to gather information during natural disasters. She also invested in Vector Space, a company launching microsatellites into space to democratize access to satellites. “I mostly did it because I wanted to say I invested in a rocket-ship company,” she says, laughing. Underwood says she uses her angel role to push her out of her comfort zone, to look into areas she doesn’t know a ton about, like Rival, a ticketing platform that keeps fans safer by allowing them to upload a photo to complete a purchase. “The ones that sound crazy just might be the next breakout company,” she says.
Every other Tuesday the #Angels have a conference call. It isn’t unusual for someone to be sitting in an airport getting ready for a flight, speeding home on US 101, breastfeeding, or shushing an overactive toddler.
In the past four years the #Angels have collectively invested in over 100 companies, among them Gusto, Bird, Lygos, Airtable, Carrot Fertility, and Literati. Their money comes from profits the women have made after various IPOs of companies they’ve worked at, their salaries, and cash from their angel investments. They’re still early in their lives as investors—it often takes more than 10 years to see a return on cash supplied to startups—but they’ve already had four exits: Breast-pump tech company Moxxly sold to Olle Larsson Holding and cinemagraph app Polaroid Swing to Microsoft in 2017, then patron-membership site Kit sold to Patreon and credit-score service Pinch to Chime in 2018.
Unlike many of the female-led investment funds out there, the #Angels aren’t focused on backing only women. “Great investors wouldn’t just look at one gender to make great investments,” says Gadde. Underwood seems equally surprised when I ask why they don’t fund solely female founders. “I get it, but why wouldn’t we also want to just be investing in the very best deals we can, regardless of the gender of the founder?”
Still, they teamed up with Carta, a software company that helps startups manage their equity allotments, in February to investigate women’s roles in the venture industry. Carta analyzed 6,000 startups with a combined $45 billion in value to find out who actually sits on the capitalization table—or cap table, to use techie lingo—which is the ownership record of who has shares in a company. Having equity, a term used to describe partial ownership in a company, is how investors, founders, executives, and early employees make their money when a startup is successful—i.e., when a company is bought or taken public. The findings of that #Angels/Carta survey? Women hold just 9 percent of the $45 billion equity value of the 6,000 companies. The other 91 percent belongs to men. “The numbers were actually worse than I thought they’d be,” says Sladden, who left Twitter in August of 2014 and is now running a startup (which, at press time, was still in stealth mode).
Their theory is that the more female angel investors exist, the more control women will have over the future of tech. And sometimes that means more female founders: About 40 percent of the companies in the #Angels portfolio have a female founder or cofounder, including DIRT Protocol, Brandless, Modern Fertility, and Visla Labs. Hitting that number happened organically, they say.
 And their work over the past four years has inspired plenty of other women to jump into the game. I joined them at a private dinner hosted by the #Angels in December. A group of 20 women, all angel investors or angels in training, dined around a square table in the downstairs lobby of the San Francisco venture firm First Round Capital. Over baked goat cheese and petite roasted chickens, each woman at the table introduced herself and talked about her investment interests. They lamented over the deals they were shut out of. They asked how they could push for a founder to let them invest more money, how much the others were investing, and in what. One woman, Kelly Graziadei, who left her role as director of media partnerships at Facebook in 2017, revealed that the #Angels inspired her and some former colleagues at Facebook to start their own women’s angel investing fund. They call themselves F7, and they just wrote their first check, she told the room. Everyone applauded, with a few shouts of “Get it, girl!”
Their theory is that the more female angel investors exist, the more control women will have over the future of tech.
Some of the execs attending were eager to invest and wanted better access to potential deals. Stanton’s advice: Check out the site AngelList, which allows investments as low as $1,000. Underwood said investing your time before your money is another solve. “Build relationships with people you think will go on to do great things, and find ways to be helpful to them,” she explained. “If possible, take on an advisory role in exchange for equity.”
There was a lone man at the dinner: Phin Barnes, a partner at First Round. (He was there as the cohost.) At the end of the night, I asked him what it was like to be the token man in the room. I found myself unapologetically sizing him up, making note of what he was wearing: a lightweight black Patagonia fleece and pristine throwback sneakers. The women were better appointed—so chic, in fact, that if they slow-motion walked across a room, they wouldn’t be out of place in an ad for the next female-centric iteration of an Ocean’s movie. “I thought about all the stereotypes I must represent,” he said. “I was thinking about how much I was talking. I see how hard it can be when you’re worrying that someone is looking at you through a certain lens.”
“It gives you a little glimpse into the alternative reality of what the world could look like,” Verrilli, an #Angel and a general partner at GV, said to me when I mention the power dynamic of having all women and one dude at a table. She was both wistful and full of conviction, like she knows, or hopes, that the near future will look different. “What this room looks like right now is not a room a lot of us get to be in,” she added, “but we will.”
A version of this article originally appeared in the March 2019 issue of Marie Claire.
[Entire post, click on the title link to read it at Marie Claire.]
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we-got-the-a-team · 8 years ago
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uneducated guesses at candidates to be the New Randy
Omar Morales: Been on the team for all of 2 months and is now the interim Dash manager. Head coach at Eastern New Mexico for 3 years. Blank slate. If picked, the timing of his hiring is awfully interesting--if the Dash hired Randy’s successor in March, Randy was effectively a dead man walking from the start of the season.
Marcelo de Siqueira Campos L. Galvao: The Dash’s other assistant coach, since 2015. Brazilian. Has some NAIA head coaching experience, but otherwise keeps a low profile. Seems even less likely than Morales.
Butch Lauffer: Longtime coach and literal textbook writer on soccer tactics, coached with Randy Waldrum, mentored Morales at Eastern NM. Coaches at Western Texas A&M, lifelong Texan. Seems unlikely if the Dash want to break from the Waldrum style, but who knows.
Angela Kelly: Head coach at University of Texas since 2011; previously a player and assistant under Anson Dorrance at UNC. Former CanWNT and USL W-League midfielder. Oversaw Abby Smith’s development into a collegiate star (hi Jane Campbell hi, hello, hi~). Longhorns made their first national rankings appearance under Kelly in 2012 and turned them into a recruiting power. Not a dude!
Matt Ross: 1. Frankfurt FFC manager in Frauen Bundesliga, elevated from interim after Colin Bell went to Avaldsnes. Australian, and has some US connections via Sophie Schmidt (ex-Sky Blue) and Yuki Nagasato (now on CRS). Could be on the hot seat after a 5th-place finish (though with a small roster and a long string of prominent exits). Frankfurt also lost a sponsor, and Ross has dealt with some recent player drama over communication--something that, for better or (likely) worse, might make him a good fit for Houston.
Nick Cushing: If Carli Lloyd wants to bring back a souvenir from Man City, she could do worse than the manager who led MCWFC to the FA Cup and Champions’ League. Man City would probably pitch a fit, and it’s unlikely the Dash would compete on salary. Has 2 years’ experience leading Man City, and at 32 would be only a couple years older than NWSL baby coach Mark Parsons.
Any coach who previously had a US pro soccer head coaching job (Tom Durkin, Lisa Cole, James Galanis, Albertin Montoya, Charlie Naimo, Aaran Lines, Abner Rogers): Don’t underestimate the smallness of the women’s soccer coaching world. Any of these coaches are likely on most teams’ standing coaching lists. Of special note is Galanis, who coached the WPS Atlanta Beat, but more relevantly has been Carli Lloyd’s personal coach and trainer for years.
Daniel Clitnovici: Has head coaching experience with the Colorado Rapids Women and Colorado Pride. Last seen in the pros as an assistant coach and academy director for the NWSL Flash. Villanova picked him up as an assistant earlier this year after the Flash evacuated Rochester. Known for a high-press attacking style that would be a good fit for the Dash, and also for the Colorado Pride’s 10-match shutout streak in 2014, when he won USL W-League coach of the year.
Ben Dragavon: GK coach for the Seattle Reign since 2013, promoted to assistant coach in 2017. US Soccer has a vested interest in developing Jane Campbell, and Dragavon’s coached Hope Solo and Haley Kopmeyer. No head coaching experience, but has worked closely with Laura Harvey since the Reign’s inception and seems to be climbing the ladder.
Ben Waldrum: Don’t laugh. He’s been running FC Dallas Women extremely well (14-0-0 in 2016, lost in the conference finals to the CRS reserves), and has a USSF A license and a ton of academy and youth development experience. There’s a possible--maybe even likely--scenario where Ben succeeds his dad as Dash head coach, and Randy ends up working for Ben as a technical adviser for the Dash academy.
Leonardo Cuéllar: Former and longtime Mexico WNT coach, now managing Club América in Liga MX Femenil. Not terribly popular with the NT at the end of his tenure, but has decades of experience and could recruit well across the border. FeMex might step in if they’ve gone completely cold on the NWSL and want him to stay with the fledgling Liga MX Femenil.
Andrea Rodebaugh Huitrón: Ex-Mexico WNT captain for a span that included the ‘99 WWC. Went to college at Cal and has managed the Mexico U20s. Currently managing the Xolas in Liga MX Femenil, where they recently lost in the inaugural cup tournament finals. Still early in her coaching career, but experienced at 50. Not a dude!
Jorge Barcellos: One of the few former Brazilian national team coaches with prior experience coaching a US pro team (St. Louis Athletica). Currently coaching Kindermann SC (featuring WNT defender Barbara) to decent form in Brazil’s league and is unlikely to jump ship mid-season.
Keidane McAlpine: USC’s head coach since the 2014 season, where he’s rebuilt the Trojans into a Pac-12 and national powerhouse. His last roster won the national championship and included Sammy Jo Prudhomme, Morgan Andrews, Mandy Freeman, Savannah Levin, Kayla Mills, and Katie Johnson, all of whom are pros (and all but Levin went in the 2017 NWSL college draft). Also led Washington State to two years of Pac-12 success. Would be the only black NWSL coach.
Amanda Cromwell: UCLA’s head coach since 2013. Does a better job at UCLA bringing in and developing international talent than most NWSL coaches. Her rosters have included Sam Mewis, Abby Dahlkemper, and Jessie Fleming--and Mal Pugh, however briefly. Darian Jenkins did so well under Cromwell that she got drafted and signed by the Courage despite a devastating injury in October that’s kept her on the Courage’s DL. One of the winningest coaches in NCAA history (289 wins, .698%), not just active but all-time, thanks to 14 years and a 203-83-26 record at UCF. Has 55 USWNT caps and was on the US Soccer Board of Directors and NCAA rules committee. Not a dude!
Anson Dorrance, Cindy Parlow Cone, Tony DiCicco: Longshots despite high profiles and prior pro-league involvement. Cone’s the only one of this group I see even being remotely likely due to her continued involvement with US Soccer.
Patrice Lair (PSG) or Gerard Precheur (OL): Lol. Both on their way out, but there’s no way they consider the Dash as an opportunity, even if the Dynamo group uncharacteristically start throwing tons of money into the Dash.
Abby Wambach: Her name comes up for almost every US pro women’s soccer coaching job for no good reason other than it’s Abby Wambach.
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