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tumbleweed-writes · 1 year ago

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Scorned: Chibs Telford X Reader. Chapter Two

PREVIOUS CHAPTER HERE

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Chibs was still seething by the time he made it back to the Sons clubhouse. He had taken a long ride after confronting Jarry, hoping that the long ride could clear his brain and soothe the dreadful sense of anxiety that had settled down into his belly.

He found though that he still felt just as keyed up as he’d been when he’d left the local police department. If anything he found that he felt more irritable as the day had gone on and his mind had longer to stew on the situation with his ex fling and his current love.

He barely acknowledged Tig, barely giving his vice president a tight nod, as he rounded the corner of the service counter that had once served ice cream and other novelty treats.

The service counter now served as a makeshift bar of sorts, glasses, pitchers, and bottles of liquor being stored under the cabinet and bottles of beer resting in the mini fridge that had been purchased.

It was not the most sophisticated setup and it was certainly nothing compared to the bar that had rested at the old Sons clubhouse at TM Auto, but it worked for their current needs.

That could be said about most of the features of their current clubhouse. It fit for their current needs but they were unsure if it would be where their clubhouse would remain.

The space did not feel as secure as the Sons old compound out at TM. The old storefront honestly felt as though it was a little too public facing though the line of shops the building resided on was not the most active.

Jacob Hale had bought out most of the shopspace when he had hopes of building a high end condo on the property. That dream of course had been shot down partially thanks to SAMCRO’s involvement in making sure that plans for development did not go through.

The retail and living spaces had been left empty for years, Hale finding that he was unable to unload them for a price that might cause him to break even.

A few businesses had moved into the spaces but the area still felt less than developed.

That didn’t mean that more businesses might come though.

Chibs couldn’t help but to think that perhaps SAMCROs clubhouse needed to be in a more secure feeling location where the public was less likely to gaze upon it so easily.

At least the old clubhouse had felt separate from the Sons legit business at the auto mechanic shop. The old clubhouse had the ability to be gated off with the fence surrounding TM Auto and the clubhouse lot. It had made things feel more protected in times of lockdowns and had given a sense of privacy.

Privacy was not something SAMCRO could financially afford at the moment though. They were barely out of the red with RedWoody Productions. There had been some side work doing protection runs for a few trucking companies and a couple of other side jobs involving bodyguard gigs. The club was just scraping by though.

Chibs had hopes that perhaps when the club found themselves enough out of the red that they might be able to look for a more permanent home that felt less open to the public. He had also considered perhaps buying Hale out and buying a few of the properties beside Scoops and Sweets. They could surely find a way to construct some sort of massive clubhouse that felt a little more secure with more buildings and the right construction crew.

It was just a pipedream at this point though the club not quite having the money to invest in that kind of project at the moment.

They had at least finally painted over the Scoops and Sweets signs hanging over their awning and the ice cream and candy signs on the sides of the entrance making it look less inviting to anyone who was unaware that this building no longer was an innocent ice cream parlor.

A club hangaround had even offered to paint a Sons Reaper somewhere on the building, but Chibs and the man were still negotiating just what the idea would entail.

Chibs could admit he was at a loss as to what to do with the building.

His brothers and he had done their best to make the space feel less like an old retail space and more like their clubhouse but it was a slow work in progress.

A few Friday night parties had at least managed to happen in the smaller space making it feel more like home as time had gone on.

Chibs said nothing as he opened the cabinet below him, finding a shot glass and a bottle of Jameson.

Tig watched as Chibs poured a far too full shot, taking it down before following it up with another in quick succession.

He dared to speak spotting the tension rolling off his club Pres. “You good brother?”

Chibs gritted his jaw there being a million things he wanted to say to describe how he felt at the moment but he only found one statement that perfectly encapsulated how he felt.

“Ye ever felt like yer past was comin up tryin to fuck over yer future?”

“More often than you know. What’s this about? Everything quiet with the Irish?” Tig dared to ask jumping to the most logical conclusion about just what Chibs’ past pertained to.

Chibs sighed, taking another shot almost wishing it was that simple. He would almost rather deal with the True IRA than whatever shit Sheriff Jarry was attempting to pull.

He let out another sigh shaking his head. “Aye, not heard a word from em in a long while.”

He paused the venom clear in his voice as he spoke again explaining his issue. “Fuckin Sheriff Jarry’s been talkin to my ol lady, bringing up our past arrangement to Y/N. Stirring up shite.”

Tig let out a heavy huff, his jaw tensing at the comment. He shook his head quick to ask. “What game do you think she’s playing here? It’s been almost over a year since you two ended that little arrangement. You think she’s playing the long game, trying to prod an ol lady to say the wrong thing so she can go after SAMCRO?”

Chibs shifted the bottle of Jameson in his hand thinking about just drinking straight from the bottle at this point but quickly decided against it. “I don’t know. I almos hope it’s that simple. I can’t shake the fuckin feelin its more personal than that though. Feels more like she’s got it out fer me fer endin shite with her. She left town pretty soon after Jackie Boy…after shite ended.”

Chibs paused his throat growing tight at the mention of his fallen brother and the sacrifice that had been made.

He took a deep breath speaking again. “Feels more like she’s stirrin up shite to try to get rid of her competition. She was always fuckin push and pull with me. Didn’t want the reality of what bein with me was but was back and forth on if she wanted to end shite. She wanted me to make the choice fer her so she could be pissed no matter what fuckin choice I made. It was fuckin exhausting, shite felt draining. I couldn’t fuckin trust her. The sex was great, but the shite that went along with her was fuckin killin me. I’m the one who finally put an end to the back and forth bullshite. Part of me thinks she had hopes we’d rekindle shite between us at some point…that things would go back to the way they were, her feedin us intel and money bein exchanged…us fucking. I fuckin told her it was over when I ended it, told her we’d make her disappear if she got on SAMCRO’s wrong side. Me movin on and takin an ol lady is a sign that I meant what I said bout it bein over.”

He shook his head still glaring down at the bottle of Jameson. “Feels like Jarry either wants to push Y/N from me to knock her out of the way and force me back to her…or she jus wants to fuckin punish me fer movin on.”

Tig let out a heavy sigh shaking his head unable to stop himself from saying it. “Guess that’s why they say not to stick your dick in crazy.”

Chibs scoffed at the comment, a small pained chuckle leaving him. “Aye, think we’re both guilty of that shite.”

Tig gave him a slight nod raising his brows knowing Chibs had a point. He’d not always chosen the most stable of bedroom partners in the past.

Chibs continued to stare down at the bottle of Irish Whiskey, his head aching and his mind spinning.

He found himself fretting over just what Jarry’s game plan was here. He didn’t trust her. That had been one of the biggest issues in their time together; a lack of trust.

How could he trust anyone who wore a badge? Even if the badge was worn by a cop who was willing to play dirty?

He was certain she didn’t trust him either. He was a professed criminal so of course she had not trusted him.

She had spent the relationship pushing for him to give her more information about the activities of the Sons and truth about acts he denied them having any involvement with.

Chibs was unwilling to open that can of worms up with her though. He had the slightest feeling she could not entirely handle the truth with as back and forth and as flighty as she seemed.

She was constantly declaring that he was the worst choice for her romantically in one breath and insisting that she wanted him in the other breath.

She would goad him into being the bad guy and breaking things off with her and when he refused to make the choice for her she reacted with anger and spite.

It felt like mental chess and Chibs was too damn old for mind games.

To be honest he had found himself knowing that there was no real future between them; no reasonable one at least.

They could never be exactly open about their involvement. It wouldn’t look so innocent to have the local sheriff dating the known outlaw biker. The residents of Charming would kick Jarry right out of the job if there was any sort of normal courting situation.

The only option had been to be secretive and to maintain the exchange of information and cash between Jarry and SAMCRO as well as the secret sexual encounters between Chibs and Jarry.

Although the sex had been good and he had fun with Jarry when she was not so controlling and neurotic, Chibs had known that there was no chance of longevity in their odd pairing.

Althea Jarry was controlling, paranoid, indecisive, and at times erratic . She spent her time pushing his buttons and his patience until they both brought out the worst in one another.

Good sex and an exchange of intel for SAMCRO had not been worth the emotional turmoil Chibs felt that Jarry had brought with.

Tig finally spoke nodding to the bottle Chibs was still hyper focused on. “Venus and I can take Y/N out to lunch this weekend…see where her head is at, see if she feels threatened and reassure she’s got no reason to be. You know if Jarry pushed any buttons, Venus’ll know how to unjam em. You gotta talk to Y/N bout this though. Don’t know how much you told her about Jarry and you, but you gotta tell her everything. Prepare her for the worst and trust her to handle it.”

He paused quick to speak again. “You should get out of here. Get on over to Y/N’s place. Open up to her about this shit. Sitting here and trying to drown it in Jameson isn’t going to do you any favors.”

Chibs frowned, wanting to snark that Tig thought he was some kind of relationship expert now that he had a steady ol lady in Venus Van Dam.

He bit his tongue keeping the comment inward knowing lashing out at Tig for genuinely giving him some good advice was not ideal. He could admit to it being a surprise that this good advice came from such an unlikely source.

Chibs knew Tig had a point. Y/N would most likely alleviate his fears and anxieties or at the very least be willing to share the burden of them with him.

When Chibs had met Y/N he had still been reeling from how things had ended with Jarry.

The sheriff had taken a long sabbatical after the misery that had gone down with the fall of Jax Teller.

Chibs had been left struggling to pick up the pieces of the fractured club that was now his responsibility to lead. He had been left traumatized by loss and the horror of all that had happened.

To make matters feel more emotionally draining Fiona had decided to grant him a long awaited for divorce which meant that Chibs was coping with the fact that that chapter of his life was officially legally closed. It had been a closure that had left him both mourning what had been and feeling uncertain of what would be.

He had been sleep deprived, stressed, and emotionally drained when Venus Van Dam had casually brought up the cute little thing that had opened up an antique shop down the street from the Sons clubhouse.

Chibs had not thought much of the comment he having a million other things on his mind. He’d not even paid much mind to it when Tig had begun to go on little shopping trips with Venus down the street to this antique shop.

When Kerrianne’s birthday had rolled around and Chibs had been at a loss as what to buy her, Venus had suggested the shop.

He’d not walked into that shop expecting to fall in love, but it had hit him like a brick to the back of the head.

He was not a believer in love at first sight. He’d always firmly thought it was more of a case of lust at first sight.

There had been something there between Y/N and he upon their first interaction; a comfort he’d not known with many people.

He had realized that Venus had picked up on it quickly, spotting the look on his face when he’d returned with a purchased bracelet for his daughter and a look in his eyes that screamed infatuation.

Venus Van Dam was a hopeless romantic and had seemed to encourage the interactions between Chibs and Y/N mentioning the shop would be a good place to find items to furnish the clubhouse and make it feel more like home.

The visits to the shop had become frequent for Chibs and a friendship had grown.

When Venus had proudly announced that Y/N would be attending a Friday night party as her guest, Chibs had taken extra care into his appearance that night.

He’d spent the first hours of the party nursing a shot and keeping his eyes on the crowd searching for Venus and her guest.

When they’d entered the party he’d not had time to approach them as Venus had led Y/N right to him. He’d spent the vast majority of that party attempting to woo her.

Shots had been shared and Chibs had offered to teach her to play pool. A joint had been shared on the roof when the party had grown a little too full of debauchery.

He’d asked her on a date over a shared joint relieved that she had agreed to it.

They’d not looked back after that.

Y/N was someone he could trust. There was no push with her. It was all pull.

It was nothing like the pull he’d endured with Jarry. The pull from Jarry had always felt desperate, manipulative at times, starved, and frantic. Jarry had always pulled him back to her in ways that were steeped with panic, lust, and at times rage.

He’d lost count of the amount of times he had found himself pulled back towards Jarry after a at times physical altercation between the pair they winding up practically hate fucking.

The pull to Jarry always felt tinged with something rotten and unstable.

The pull towards Y/N felt comforting. He could best describe it as a sense of warmth and security. The pull towards her felt healing after all the pain and loss he’d endured. It felt peaceful. The pull towards her felt loving and accepting. He felt like he had found some sense of serenity.

He felt his stomach turn fearing that Jarry was hoping to taint that sense of peace.

Chibs pushed back the bottle of Jameson making a silent promise to himself that he would not allow his past to taint his future.

He refused to let Jarry take this away from him.

—-------------------------------

Their clothing lay strewn across her living room and down her hallway long forgotten.

Chibs had come to her apartment intending to be mature and talk this out with her. His lips had met hers the second she’d opened the door though and talking had been forgotten for more pleasurable activities.

Y/N laid by his side they both nude resting under her bedsheets the AC flipping on making the room cooler than necessary.

She stared up at Chibs as he sat by her side, a magazine resting in his lap with rolling papers and a familiar baggie.

She spoke, rolling her eyes ever so slightly. “Don’t spill anything. I really don’t want to go through the hassle of trying to figure out how to get any bits of bud out of my bedsheets at this hour.”

“I’ve been rollin joints longer than ye been alive ye brat.” He remarked playfully, causing a soft laugh to leave her, she rolling her eyes again.

“Our age difference isn’t that massive.”

He smirked, shaking his head fast to point it out. “There’s at least a decade there, Love. Aint sayin more so I don’t feel too fuckin dirty bout it.”

She spoke a sigh leaving her as she watched him make the final moves on rolling the perfect joint. “You liked it when I called you a dirty old man that one time. You were pretty vocal about how much you liked it.”

“I liked that ye were riding my cock and I was sayin so much filthy shite cause I was pussy drunk, Love. We are amazing at sayin filthy sinful shite in the moment. Pretty sure we established after our first time that we are both suckers for dirty talk.” He pointed out a snicker leaving his lips as he placed the magazine and baggie aside, finding a lighter and an ashtray she kept on the nightstand just for him.

She watched him place the joint between his lips and light it taking the initial first hit.

She reached out he passing it to her, allowing her to take her own drag from it.

They passed it back and forth silently for a long moment they both feeling the heavy relaxed sensation of a high wash over them. Chibs Telford always had the best pot. It was something she'd figured out quickly upon their first shared joint at that Friday night party months and months ago when he'd finally asked her on a date.

He finally put out the joint in the ashtray before he settled down back against her.

She snuggled close to him, his arms opening for her allowing her to rest her head against his chest.

The peaceful feeling didn’t last for long Y/N finally working up the nerve to say it. “Am I allowed to know the details about the history between you and the Bitch Sheriff and just why she’s pissed off enough to approach me about it?”

Chibs sighed knowing he had to follow Tig’s advice and be 100 percent open about it all. “Back when Jackie Boy was still…here…some shite went down with the former sheriff, man was murdered and a new sheriff came to town. Sheriff Jarry started sniffin round the club made it clear she was open to developing a profitable relationship with SAMCRO.”

“She’s a dirty cop?” Y/N asked decoding what he meant by a profitable relationship.

He sighed nodding his head as he spoke again. “She wasn’t jus interested in that though…she was interested in me.”

“So you dated?” She asked surprised by the information. She would have assumed that Chibs’ activities with SAMCRO would have made him wary of the cops.

Chibs sighed again, tempted to reach out and relight the joint to calm his nerves. “Not exactly…it wasn’ the mos traditional pairing, Love. We met traded intel fer cash…and we fucked. We developed a wee bit of a pattern; meetin up fer sex. Shite between us couldn’t be a fuckin normal relationship.”

“Would you have wanted it to be? Did you love her?” Y/N dared to ask a small frown crossing her features as she took in the information he’d just dropped in her lap.

Chibs sighed, rolling the question through his head before he spoke. “At times I thought I’d not mind it. There were wee moments of fondness. I might of started to fall fer her at times when things felt good, but shite was usually too destructive fer it to be love. I don't think it was love, at least fer me it wasn't…more often than not shite between us was fuckin toxic. We brought out nasty sides of each other…We fought a lot…not just verbal spats but there were a few physical fights. I always took pride in not bein the kind of lad that thinks it’s fair to hit a woman but she wasn’t afraid to hit me and I reacted in turn. We’d fight and fuck and never deal with the reality of what things were between us. It was exhausting and awful. So, no even if shite had been different and she wasn’t a cop, I don’t think I woulda wanted it to be a real relationship not fer long at least.”

He paused, relieved that she didn’t yank away from him at the mention of physical altercations. It was not something he was proud of. “She never could fuckin accept that shite between us was complicated. I wasn’ goin to leave SAMCRO and she wasn’ goin to stop bein a fuckin cop. We never could trust each other given our business arrangement. I couldn’t fuckin tell her anyhing without fearin she’d use it agains the club. She wasn’t fuckin tellin me a thing unless she got cash in her hand. She was never fuckin satisfied with the reality of what we were. She couldn’t make up her mind bout if she wanted shite with me to continue or wanted me gone. She would try to push me away in one breath and yank me back in another.”

He frowned his stomach in knots fearing what her reaction might be to all of this information when he was done. “I didn't love her. Nothin between us was fuckin love. I was miserable and shite with her was too complicated and too stressful to keep goin on. I’m the one who made the final push. I told her it was over, I ended shite. Told her the truth, that I don’t love her, she’s a fuckin cop and I’m a fuckin outlaw. Told her what happens to cops who wind up on the wrong side of SAMCRO. Made sure she knew shite between us had to end. I ended the arrangement between SAMCRO and her and the shite between us the only way I knew how…by tellin her the truth.”

“Do you think she loved you? Do you think it was ever something more for her?” Y/N dared to ask, thinking of her interaction with Jarry. It had screamed jealousy and heartbreak.

Chibs let out a heavy sigh shaking his head. “Not sure, she wasn’ exactly open bout how she felt. Most of her talkin to me was pushin fer info bout the club or pushin my buttons with her mind games bout if she wanted to break up with me or not. The…pyhysical aspect of our relationship mighta been good, and she was fun when she wasn’t playing fuckin mind games with me. The good moments were rare though. I’m glad it's over and to be honest…I regret it happened. I won’t lie, Love…shite between her and me started with Jax wanting me to keep her in SAMCRO’s pocket. It wasn’t a foundation fer anything good.”

He cringed, almost certain she would tell him it was too much, almost sure she’d deem him as some asshole for the latter part of his admission about using sex to keep Jarry in SAMCRO’s pocket.

She let out a heavy sigh shaking her head. “Should I be worried about her? She was trying to intimidate me by bringing up how unsafe SAMCRO is. Then when that didn’t work… It felt like she was trying to swing her dick around…remind me that she had you first. She seems a little too interested in trying to start shit with me. Something tells me that having a fucking cop as my sworn enemy isn’t going to do me any favors especially considering who I’m dating.”

“Ye ain got nothin to worry bout. If she starts shite with ye, let me handle it.” Chibs insisted squeezing her a little closer to him, a protective tone entering his voice.

It was a feeling he was accustomed to having with her; protective.

She gave him a crooked smile fast to speak. “I will handle it before you do, trust me, Filip. I felt like she was going out of her way to almost…play some kind of juvenile mean girl game with me…I don’t like bullies. I can’t promise I won’t throw a punch before I call you if she ever tries to push my buttons again.”

He chuckled a somewhat proud smirk crossing his lips at the comment. He pressed a kiss to the top of her head daring to ask. “How are ye feelin bout…everything I just told ye?”

“We all have our pasts, Filip. I mean…we are both divorcees.” Y/N pointed out the comment making his stomach turn well aware of the history between his girlfriend and her ex husband.

It had come up pretty soon in their romantic relationship; the reason behind why Y/N had moved so much in the past decade and why she had considered even changing her last name.

He felt his stomach turn his mind more focused on the thoughts of her ex and the traumatic history there as she spoke again. “I think we both have crazy exes.”

She paused, not giving him long to focus on the comment as she spoke again. “At least I like your ex wife.”

He let out a huff still stunned that Fiona Larkin had taken an approving shine to Y/N.

The meeting had been forced as Kerrianne had wanted to visit her da in the states four months before and Fiona was wary even if Kerrianne was legally an adult now.

Chibs didn’t blame her given the seedy business SAMCRO was involved in with Redwoody and the danger that came with his world.

He had resisted the urge to argue that Fiona’s world with the True IRA was just as dangerous and had instead brought up the fact that his girlfriend had a normal safe job and would look out for Kerrianne if something came up.

Fiona had of course insisted that she must meet this girlfriend if she were to trust her child with her.

Chibs had resisted the urge to argue and be upset that she seemingly did not trust his judgment.

So, a facetime call had been set between Y/N and Fiona with Chibs nervously pacing outside the room after Fiona had insisted that he didn’t need to be hovering over the women as they talked.

He had been dumbfounded that the talk had gone well and Fiona had given Y/N such glowing praise. The two had developed a cordial and even friendly relationship given that it was becoming obvious that Y/N was here to stay and would be involved in Kerrianne’s life.

He spoke a huff leaving him at the comment. “Fuckin funny.”

Y/N gave him a crooked smile unable to stop herself from teasing him. “It’s true though, if you ever piss me off I’m packing my bags up and going to Belfast.”

He managed to give her backside a swat working a giggle from her as he spoke. “Aint fuckin losin ye to my ex wife. Even if I piss ye off I’m doin what it takes to keep ye around.”

She smiled at the comment, her lips pressing to his cheek recalling his earlier comment. “I’m not going anywhere, even if you are a dirty old man.”

He gave her backside another swat, his lips eagerly pressing to hers as he spoke. “Not too old to make ye moan my name.”

“I know, I do have a love for antiques though given my line of work.” She snarked back the comment earning her another kiss, he turning her over onto her back, his lips pressing to hers.

He moved over her with ease his lips pressing down her body. She let out a soft pleased sigh at the sensation. He spoke his lips soft against her skin the words leaving him. “Gonna show ye that I aint an antique yet.”

She let out a soft moan enjoying the press of his lips to her skin and the scratch of his facial hair against her. She had never had a more determined nor a more passionate lover than Chibs Telford.

All thoughts of Sheriff Jarry faded from Y/N’s mind as she soaked up the love Chibs gave her.

Y/N had no intention of letting anything nor anyone take the love Chibs showed her away.

#chibs telford #sons of anarchy #chibs telford fanfiction #chibs sons of anarchy #Chibs Telford x reader #sons of anarchy fanfic #sons of anarchy fanfiction #Chibs Telford fanfic

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swatchlings-art · 11 months ago

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hey so pharmister.. do you have any more content for that au? any headcanons? how the fuck does pharma end up with them bc? who's bright idea was it to throw him onto the idiot ship? ToT

and also how do they get together? do they get together?? the spinister rizz(tm) is too strong not to work /hj

OHOHOH I'M SO GLAD YOU ASKED!

So, for me pharmister is a ship that exists exclusively for my Pharma's redemption tour AU (which is my own take on a "Pharma lives after the Lost Light finale and now has to deal with the consequences of Everything")

AND MAN DO I HAVE CONTENT FOR THIS AU!!! I have... 72 pages of planning for it, and only 2 chapters fully written (out of 25 so far!) unfortunately most of it is all a WIP haha...

BUT get ready for me to babble AT LENGTH about it here lol

>how the fuck does Pharma end with the scavengers?

In my AU, Pharma wakes up from being braindead a few years after the finale and then gets a proper trial for his crimes, but instead of being sent to death row he's given the opportunity to Reintegrate Into Society after doing what's basically community service. He loses his medical license for obvious reasons, so he gets sent to do his service with The Peace Corps (which... are the Scavengers after being given a purpose in this New Cybertron).

>Who's bright idea was to throw him onto the idiot ship?

this is actually one of my favorite details for my au lol SO the only reason Pharma gets this second chance at life is because Minimus, in honor of Megatron, has formed a Restorative Justice Program for war criminals on both sides of the war. And part of that program is doing this type of Community Service instead of getting the death penalty or infinite prison time. His program is controversial among the populace and very new and experimental, but he's trying his best to make it work. He selected the Peace Corps for Pharma because the Scavengers are actually a glowing example that his program works so far and he thought putting him under their care would help Pharma have an easier time adapting to his new life (wildly unaware that it'd be psychological torture to surround Pharma with decepticons he loathes).

AS FOR HOW PHARMISTER WORKS HERE!!!

>Any headcanons? how do they get together? DO they get together?

yes I have SO many headcanons. The most important of them all is that Spinister saw Pharma for the first time and went "Wow, he's hot!" and only continued to be down bad for him from there (at first having an extremely shallow crush on the former medic, until [Plot Point] happens and he forms Genuine Tender Feelings for him).

Pharma as he exists in my AU is going through a full blown depression, and is having a really hard time accepting that he'll never be a medic ever again, and also he's paranoid as HELL thinking everyone and anything is out to get him. Ah, the wonders of trauma!

And it takes a bit of development for him to start trusting any of the scavengers at all, but the one that is easier to trust is Spinister. Mostly because he's completely honest about everything he has an opinion on. He's extremely blunt! The type of guy that blurts the first thought that forms in his processor without thinking about it first! He's too dumb to make a convincing lie or keep up a charade!

And also, Spinister's very obvious crush on Pharma is oddly reassuring and annoying for him at the same time. He has complicated feelings about being loved as he is! He hates it! But Spinister is just happy to be around Pharma because he likes him without judgements. Spinister has decepticon standards when it comes to love! Whatever fucked up things Pharma has done are Tame for him, hell, he also harvested organs at some point (It's like they're meant to be ♡ <- this comment would get him slapped).

I feel like fully revealing my hand as to if and how they get together would be spoiling that part of my AU. but what the hell!!! I don't get many opportunities to talk about it.

Anyway YES they get together but at first Pharma uses him to try and fill the void inside him (Spinister is more than happy to go along with it), and only later on does Pharma start to appreciate and become deeply fond of Spinister (because if anything, he CAN trust him to be on his side and he even starts to admire that Spinister is just... very at peace with himself despite his perceived flaws. That's enviable somehow).

ANYWAY!

Hope that was a satisfying answer to your question!!! I cannot fully express how grateful I am that someone else wants to know more about my AU and my beloved crackship I accidentally created ♡♡♡ so thanks for asking!

#Anonymous #ask box #Pharma's redemption tour AU #pharmister #long post #transformers #f uck it's going into the tag

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chaifootsteps · 8 months ago

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the show's discomfort with its own plot beats is so buzarre to watch. like once Stolas became Viv's favorite the full moon deal had to go, but it had to be done in a way that would make Stolas look better instead of having him grow and change, because Viv's writing is allergic to both character development and accountability. this of course accidentally resulted in him looking worse, but there's something else that I find a contradiction in terms

so the basic implication is that there just hasn't been a meetup since Ozzie's, right? As far as I can tell none of the text messages in the show mention it and Blitzo says it's been a few months. This feels like it's supposed to represent Stolas respecting Blitzo more because he's not forcing him to visit anymore (read: not raping him every month, and I'm kind of blindsided that the show's logic is that we should give Stolas a cookie for managing this bare minimum level of decency).

Here's the thing though: in his texts he says stuff like 'you don't have to come but I'd still like to see you'. So by the show's logic he still has this deal where - as far as Blitzo knows - he has to do what Stolas wants to get the book. But since Stolas is feeling a tiny bit bad about it he gives Blitzo outs so he doesn't have to see him…but then passive aggressively asks him to come anyway?

How exactly would that work? Suppose Blitzo had been anxious that Stolas was being weird with him and went to see him anyway.

Would Stolas still expect Blitzo to sleep with him? If Blitzo made a move thinking that's what Stolas wanted, would Stolas take that as proof Blitzo actually wanted him even though Blitzo would just be doing it because it was how the whole deal worked? Would Stolas think that this was 'better' than what he was doing before because he gave Blitzo a choice this time, even though Blitzo might not actually want to do it anymore than he did at the start but was just playing it safe?

I don't know, the whole thing is so odd. If we're supposed to think Stolas actually learnt that he had coercive power over Blitzo and had been taking advantage of him, you'd think he'd be horrified with himself. And I mean actually horrified, not just lip service in a duet number that he forgets about when he acts shocked that Blitzo doesn't think highly of him.

You'd think he'd give a flat 'you don't need to come for the next few months' sort of statement while he was arranging the crystal.

You'd think he'd question his entire self perception and worldview.

But he doesn't. Just like the writing he doesn't really commit to the idea he's done wrong because he still wants to have his cake and eat it too. He doesn't truly understand the power imbalance because if he did he wouldn't be doing the passive aggression routine at all. He'd leave Blitzo alone until he could get the crystal or make it very, very clear that his 'still come over if you want' invite does not include sex.

Despite giving lip service to the idea he's a monster he obviously still thinks of himself as a good person because he starts with the whimpering and crying about how Blitzo doesn't think highly of him. It's just so back and forth - does he understand he raped Blitzo or not?

even during the start of his full moon speech when Blitzo panics and immediately comes on to him Stolas blushes and looks like he got within an inch of giving in and just enjoying sex with Blitzo again. this on a night when he's supposed to be breaking off the arrangement and should find the way Blitzo immediately tries to sexually appease him horrifying if he actually understood the coercive power he held over him all this time

and honestly 'sex addict who has wrecked his life through poor impulse control' would work as a character profile in a dark comedy sketch show like hb was supposed to be, but in an oh so serious adult show that Addresses Abuse (TM) it seems reasonable to suggest Stolas be sent immediately to rehab and to someone who can teach him the ABCs of consent, since he's apparently in dire need of both

All of this. Stolas has canonically already learned the ABCs of consent and understood how imbalanced and horrifying his treatment of Blitzo was, only to immediately turn face and become worse than ever the instant Blitzo didn't kiss his feet. But according to Viv and according to the standom, there's no limit to how many "chances" he deserves to redeem himself. As long as he puts on a flimsy veneer of "trying" to get better, he can rape Blitzo as many times as he wants and it's all Blitzo's fault.

#Anonymous #stolas critical #stolitz critical #viv stuff #actual blog post

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mariacallous · 2 months ago

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On ThursdaY, Reuters published a photo depicting then-United States national security adviser Mike Waltz checking his phone during a cabinet meeting held by President Trump in the White House. If you enlarge the portion of the image that captures Waltz’s screen, it seems to show him using the end-to-end encrypted messaging app Signal. But if you look more closely, a notification on the screen refers to the app as “TM SGNL.” During a White House cabinet meeting on Wednesday, then, Waltz was apparently using an Israeli-made app called TeleMessage Signal to message with people who appear to be top US officials, including JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Tulsi Gabbard.

After senior Trump administration cabinet members used vanishing Signal messages to coordinate March military strikes in Yemen—and accidentally included the editor in chief of The Atlantic in the group chat—the “SignalGate” scandal highlighted concerning breaches of traditional government “operational security” protocol as well as compliance issues with federal records-retention laws. At the center of the debacle was Waltz, who was ousted by Trump as US national security adviser on Thursday. Waltz created the “Houthi PC Small Group” chat and was the member who added top Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg. "I take full responsibility. I built the group," Waltz told Fox News in late March. "We've got the best technical minds looking at how this happened," he added at the time.

SignalGate had nothing to do with Signal. The app was functioning normally and was simply being used at an inappropriate time for an incredibly sensitive discussion that should have been carried out on special-purpose, hardened federal devices and software platforms. If you're going to flout the protocols, though, Signal is (relatively speaking) a good place to do it, because the app is designed so only the senders and receivers of messages in a group chat can read them. And the app is built to collect as little information as possible about its users and their associates. This means that if US government officials were chatting on the app, spies or malicious hackers could only access their communications by directly compromising participants' devices—a challenge that is potentially surmountable but at least limits possible access points. Using an app like TeleMessage Signal, though, presumably in an attempt to comply with data retention requirements, opens up numerous other paths for adversaries to access messages.

"I don't even know where to start with this," says Jake Williams, a former NSA hacker and vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy. “It's mind-blowing that the federal government is using Israeli tech to route extremely sensitive data for archival purposes. You just know that someone is grabbing a copy of that data. Even if TeleMessage isn't willingly giving it up, they have just become one of the biggest nation-state targets out there.”

TeleMessage was founded in Israel in 1999 by former Israel Defense Forces technologists and run out of the country until it was acquired last year by the US-based digital communications archiving company Smarsh. The service creates duplicates of communication apps that are outfitted with a “mobile archiver” tool to record and store messages sent through the app.

“Capture, archive and monitor mobile communication: SMS, MMS, Voice Calls, WhatsApp, WeChat, Telegram & Signal,” TeleMessage says on its website. For Signal it adds, “Record and capture Signal calls, texts, multimedia and files on corporate-issued and employee BYOD phones.” (BYOD stands for bring your own device.) In other words, there are TeleMessage versions of Signal for essentially any mainstream consumer device. The company says that using TeleMessage Signal, users can “Maintain all Signal app features and functionality as well as the Signal encryption,” adding that the app provides “End-to-End encryption from the mobile phone through to the corporate archive.” The existence of “the corporate archive,” though, undermines the privacy and security of the end-to-end encryption scheme.

TeleMessage apps are not approved for use under the US government's Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program or FedRAMP. TeleMessage and Smarsh did not immediately return requests for comment about whether their products are used by the US federal government and in what capacity.

"As we have said many times, Signal is an approved app for government use and is loaded on government phones,” White House press secretary Anna Kelly tells WIRED. She did not answer questions about whether the White House approves of federal officials using TeleMessage Signal—which is a different app from Signal—or whether other officials aside from Waltz have used the app or currently use it.

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency does not create policy around federal technology use but does release public guidance. When asked about Waltz’s apparent use of TeleMessage Signal, CISA simply referred WIRED to its best-practices guide for mobile communications. The document specifically advises, “When selecting an end-to-end encrypted messaging app, evaluate the extent to which the app and associated services collect and store metadata.”

It is not clear when Waltz started using TeleMessage Signal and whether he was already using it during SignalGate or started using it afterward in response to criticisms that turning on Signal's disappearing messages feature is in conflict with federal data-retention laws.

“I have no doubt the leadership of the US national security apparatus ran this software through a full information-assurance process to ensure there was no information leakage to foreign nations,” says Johns Hopkins cryptographer Matt Green. “Because if they didn’t, we are screwed.”

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alera21 · 2 months ago

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C:// Hello fellow autonomous personality robot!

C:// It’s me! CSB-2A7-F570 (or @walking-talking-tapedeck) It is a pleasure to meet a helpful bot such as myself, though from reading your blog it seems you serve a much grander explorative purpose. Space! How exciting! [^_^]

C:// Would you mind telling me your source manufacturer? Daybreak Dynamics(tm) has specific policies for their bots interactions with certain rival manufacturers

wait I'm supposed to have come up with a manufacturer name? uhhhhhh...... let me think a bit....

Salutations CSB-2A7-F570! Unfortunately my purpose does not include as much space exploration as repairing the ones who do explore and, all too often, do battle at the edges of this great expanse of a galaxy. However, to me, keeping my fellows operational is still a grant purpose, one I am pleased to do.

My source manufacturer is an industrial development and production group, Titan Industrial Manufacturing™. They're more known for production of mechs and combat bots, but I was produced more specifically by a subdivision tasked with improving servicability on various projects. Their solution was to sell a solution, rather than forcing others to alter their designs. I was made to work around the... ill designed features of some of their other machines. Technically, purchase or rental of me or one of my siblings is the only way to service other TitanIM™ products that does not violate the user agreement, but of course it's cheaper to just hire some random organic mechanic. There was only ever limited demand for my comparatively costly line of mechanic bots, despite the fact that even the most flawed of us would do a far better job than any organic mechanic.

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saveahorserideaneddie · 20 days ago

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so i was watching out lord and savior mike’s mic’s video on the scream queens pilot and he made a point about how the show worked so well (in season one at least) because it knows what it is- it knows it’s a camp comedy and doesn’t try to take itself seriously or to insist on itself, and it makes it a point to enhance the kitschy elements that audiences laugh at and use them to its advantage

and that got me thinking about how the same can be said for a lot of ryan murphy’s shows (love him or hate him) where the show knows what it is and it doesn’t shy away from the elements that make them what they are

glee for example doesn’t shy away from being cringey and over the top- instead, it embraces it because that’s the whole point the show was trying to make; that there’s nothing wrong with being “Different” (and yeah the last couple seasons weren’t as strong but they weren’t terrible and they never forgot what the show was at its core)

and then you have AHS that embraces the anthological structure and (granted to varying degrees of success) manages to completely set itself apart from each previous season while leaning into and embracing the dark nature of the stories they tell

even his biographical works know that they’re dramatized retellings and (while they could be better marketed as not prioritizing fact over fiction) they don’t shy away from the dramatization of normal events and make great tv

(the only exception to this that I make is his “monster” series that does nothing but sexualize and exploit real people and their grief against their will- the subject matter of these stories is not there for RM to turn it into his own little sandbox and neither of the two seasons he’s released warrant anything positive said about them for that reason)

all of this to say- Ryan Murphy and his creative teams KNOW how to write good tv that’s both entertaining and true to itself.

which is why season 7/8 of 9-1-1 has been so frustrating to watch because it feels like it’s become a different show entirely, with plotlines going all over the place and never staying consistent, arcs being dragged out over entire half seasons rather than actually being addressed in a timely manner, plots being set up and then ditched halfway through, and all of this being done so that big, flashy emergencies can take place.

the BIG emergencies were never what the show was about. the calls are supposed to service the overarching plot of the episode, not control the narrative itself (even w previous seasons’ opening disasters, the disaster has in some way been chosen specifically to service the emotional arcs in the characters’ lives) and in season 7/8, that hasn’t been the case. The only philosophy has been “big, loud, and crazy” and it’s served to the detriment of the story. We focused 3 episodes on bees and an almost plane crash that all had absolutely nothing to do with the overarching plot of any characters, and all it did was take time away from the overall story just to be flashy. same with the contagion episodes. even the season finale, though the “seismic shifts” theme was in line with the story of that episode, they still prioritized the disaster over the plot and rushed an ending that, quite honestly hasn’t really left them with much existing content to develop for the next season without coming up with brand new plotlines.

the show thrived when the characters and their journeys were the forefront of the show- but since returning, it feels like all TM wants to talk about is “oh what big shock factor emergency can we cram in next?” and it truly feels like TM has lost what the show is, and now it’s going through an identity crisis because of it- i can only hope that it comes out of the identity crisis as the show we all fell in love with rather than some far cry from its former self that is nothing more than a shadow of the character dramedy it’s been for years.

#911 abc #911 #911 on abc #911 season 8 #911 season eight #911 season 7 #911 season seven #911 season nine #911 season 9 #tim minear #ryan murphy #911 discussion #911 negativity #< tagging just in case

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dcdreamblog · 9 months ago

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As someone who works in American health insurance (boo hiss) customer service, one call that I get frequently, about once every two months is "why doesn't my plan cover Miraclo (tm)?" And then I have to explain that there's no such thing as "generic Miraclo" and don't even get me started on so-called "herbal Miraclo."

So may I ask you to write a bit about the history of Hourman and why Miraclo (tm) isn't covered by most health plans?

Ok, I agree with you but I should warn you, if you are a person familiar with the medical field this explanation is going to make you cringe yourself sideways. Here goes. 1. Rex Tyler AKA Hourman, was not a pharmaceutical scientist by trade. He was a biochemist. His job was not to invent medicine specifically and he invented Miraclo on accident. The only three subjects it was ever tested on were

A. Tyler himself B. Rats C. An owl (if certain stories are to be believed)

2. Miraclo was never released to the public and we still don't know what's in it. As with any drug or chemical agent that grants superhuman abilities it is HEAVILY controlled and the only reason it hasn't joined the likes of Venom on the most wanted list is because it never leaked to the drug trade in the first place.

3. SPEAKING of Venom, Miraclo is how that drug got started when only PART of Tyler's notes ended up in the wrong hands.

And finally,

4. Miraclo is not safe for human consumption over any extended period.

It makes the muscles stronger, but not as strong as it makes them FEEL. Making it super easy to deeply injure yourself.

It only lasts for an hour (at MOST, for anyone other than Tyler its effectiveness can be measured in minutes if not less), meaning it would be useless for the treatment of basically any medical issue.

As you can expect from such a potent rush, the come down is worse. It leaves the subject weak, shaky, disoriented and aggravated.

It's addictive

It can only be taken once every 24 hours between doses without instant, violent overdose reactions.

If it IS taken "safely" over extended periods it strains the involuntary muscles, most specifically those around and within the heart. Placing the user at increased risk of random heart attacks.

It also sharply spikes your risk of developing virulent and aggressive leukemia

And, over time The debilitating effects after each dose become more and more permanent, meaning it makes the muscles it empowers weaker without it over time.

Before anyone even THINKS the words "but what about Hourman's son Rick" Rick Tyler is A. a metahuman B. using a form of Miraclo that makes it "nonaddictive" but doesn't get rid of any other side effects. C. Had cancer and D. spent several years retired under the assumption that the Miraclo rush had helped him kill a man.

I respect the Tyler men, deeply. We would not be living in this world we have, maybe even a world at all, without Hourman. Miraclo is a closely guarded secret for a lot of really good reasons and even their teammates have interceded multiple times with the worry that while it might make them for effective heroes it is almost certainly shortening their lifespans. (The original Hourman and Doctor Midnite infamously butted heads over it constantly)

The only difference between Miraclo and Kobra Venom is that nobody with a profit motive knows how to make Miraclo.

#dc #dcu #dc comics #dc universe #superhero #comics #hourman #rick tyler #rex tyler #tw unreality #unreality #unreality blog #ask blog #ask game #asks open #please interact

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carriesthewind · 2 years ago

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The more I read about “effective altruists,” the more I become convinced that their entire moral philosophy is just as shallow and selfish as it seemed the first time I heard about it.

Large numbers of "effective altruists” are most concerned about the supposed existential risk of AI intelligence because they are, overwhelmingly, white middle-and-upper-class young people. They live in America and Western Europe. They are healthy and non-disabled. Despite any lip-service they may pay to inequality and suffering, the status quo is working quite well for them. The only risk to their own comfortable existence is a major breaking of the status quo, the “existential risk” so many of them become obsessed with. But even then, working to effectively mitigate any real, known, existential threats to the world - e.g., climate change - would require seriously grappling with their own privilege and advocating for the rights and safety of others over their own comfort. And so they make up a fake threat, one that is completely devoid of any race or class or colonial or gender or disability consciousness, where their disregard for doing anything to help their suffering neighbor is not only justified but heroic, because they are stopping the “real” existential threat to "everyone’s" existence.

This is the bankrupt, selfish core of the “effective altruism” philosophy. It is so obvious that it feels almost pointless to put onto the screen. I feel like I can understand, in part, why coverage of the movement looks for something deeper. Why it focuses on teasing out its historical development and highlights the sensible ideas that adherents drape over the surface of the movement (like trying to objectively measure how effectively charitable interventions are meeting their goals), as if those are building blocks that could logically lead to longtermerism and 'earning to give'. It is the drive to believe that it can’t be as stupid and selfish as it seems in the surface.

But it is. Some of its adherents really believe in it. But that is because, despite the protestations of their own Rationality(tm), humans are really good at convincing ourselves to believe things that serve our own selfish interests.

#ai bs #'effective' 'altruism'#grump grump grump

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takero2 · 11 months ago

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Some kind of continuation of this post

How did Gabriel make such a big fortune if he created Agreste brand by himself? How did he manage to achieve such popularity in 20-30 years? And is he really that well-known. Well, yes. He's definitely filthy rich.

If you think you realize how rich the Agrestes are, think again. They have a big mansion in the center of Paris with enormous "basement". A manor typical for suburb area.

How was Gabriel allowed to build his house in the center of Paris? How much was spent only on buying the territory for this mansion? How much was the mansion itself? How much does he pay for housing and communal services? The house is huge, how is it even heated? The walls are made of cold stone, presumably marble (not really warm if you ask me). How much does he pay for the water (may I remind you that he has water canals in his basement + a huge garden)

Gabriel may not work all day and be focused on being a supervillain. He may not attend even his own shows. He may just sit at home all day long.

But besides all of that. He has money left for the production of his clothes. Renting a building for headquarters. Paying salaries to people who work for him. Sudden allocating money for the development and production of smart rings. Advertising his products (a lot of advertising if rings were bought by 99% of population).

Who's the CEO of the Agreste TM? Who's responsible for the advertisement? What kind of organization is it? Who are shareholders? (I might think of two. The Bourgeois).

The man is living his best life beating up teenagers

Edit: Just thought that his wife might be the sponsor

#Thoughts #miraculous ladybug #miraculous

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uboat53 · 3 months ago

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Tariff time? Yeah, seems like it's probably time to talk about tariffs. LONG RANT (TM) time.

WHAT IS A TARIFF

Okay, it's all over the news now, but for those who really don't know at this point, a tariff is a tax that someone has to pay when something of value enters a country for the first time. Very simple. Tariffs make products imported from other countries more expensive.

WHY WOULD YOU USE A TARIFF?

Early in American history, the federal government had no power to tax individuals or states, so tariffs were the main source of funding. Later on, though, we developed other sources of funding and the importance of tariffs to the budget declined significantly. Since at least the turn of the 20th century, tariffs have mainly been a way to protect domestic industries from foreign competition as opposed to a funding source.

How useful would they be as a funding source today? Well, in 2023 the United States imported about $3.08 trillion worth of goods. For comparison, in 2024, the federal government collected $2.4 trillion from the federal income tax and $1.7 trillion from federal payroll taxes. In the same year, the federal government collected just $86 billion in customs duties (tariffs), meaning that it accounted for about 1.75% of federal revenue. Now, it sounds like you might be able to replace, say, income taxes with tariffs from those numbers, but pause for a second. Do you think you could put a 78% tariff (enough to raise $2.4 trillion out of $3.08 trillion) on every single good or service imported into the United States without significantly reducing the amount of goods and services we import, thus reducing the amount you could collect?

These days tariffs are used mainly to protect domestic industries, either because it's judged that they face unfair competition from foreign countries or because they're judged to be vital to national security. Earlier this year, for example, South Korea placed a tariff of up to 38% on Chinese steel because it deemed that China was "dumping" steel, selling for less than the cost of production, in the South Korean market in order to drive South Korean steel makers out of business. The United States has also had tariffs of some sort on steel for a long time based on the idea that the domestic steel industry is vital to national security.

I would also point out that, unlike revenue collection, these other reasons for tariffs are very much judgement calls. Is American steel vital to national security when Canadian steel is readily available? It depends on your view of national security. The same is often true about "unfair competition".

TRADE DEFICITS

All right, in addition to tariffs, we also need to talk about trade deficits. Why do we need to address trade deficits, you might ask? Because the Trump Administration has made them key to their tariff plan.

So what is a trade deficit? Well, to put it fairly simply, if we buy $5 worth of goods from another country, say, Italy, and Italy buys $4 worth of goods from us, then we have a trade deficit of $1 with Italy. Add together all of our trade, both imports and exports, and you come up with our total trade balance. If that number is negative (if we import more than we export), then we call that a "trade deficit". If it's positive, then it would be a "trade surplus".

For the year 2023, for example, the US exported a total of $2.018 trillion worth of goods and services while importing a total of $3.08 trillion. All you have to do is subtract those numbers to find that we had a trade deficit in 2023 of $1.062 trillion. We've been in a trade deficit for a while, in fact, the last year that the US had a trade surplus was 1975.

Now, you may ask "how can we keep having a trade deficit every year, don't we run out of money?", which is a very good question. But here's the thing you have to conceptualize: we don't actually have a trade deficit.

I mean, do you really think that the world is giving us $3 trillion worth of stuff in exchange for $2 trillion worth of stuff? That'd be a really bad deal for the world and a really good deal for us! No, there's a very specific export that we have that makes up the rest of that $1 trillion. It's dollars.

Yes, the United States exported $1.062 trillion worth of dollars in 2023 to make that trade deficit actually $0. Why do we export dollars and, more importantly, why do other countries want them? Well, dollars are great! They're fairly stable in value, they're plentiful and available, and, most importantly, just about anyone you want to buy things from will take them. A dollar represents a portion of the national debt of the United States and the United States is one of the few countries in the world that has never defaulted on its debt, making the dollar one of the safest currencies in the world. Not only can you buy things that might simply be unavailable in, say, Laotian Kip, but even if they do accept the kip, you'll probably get a better price if you pay in dollars than kip.

Dollars are the lubricant of global trade and other countries really want to get their hands on them which is really good for us because we control the supply of dollars. We can make more of them and we can limit the supply as we want, which is more than you can say of most of the things we export. There are definitely consequences if we abuse this, but it's not a bad thing to be able to do.

The even more interesting part of this comes when you look at investment flows. Yes, dollars make it easier to buy things from all over the world, but do you know where they make buying things the easiest? Right here in the US where we use dollars for everything. Many of the dollars that we export abroad as part of the balance of trade end up right back here in the US as investment in American business and real estate. Technically this doesn't count as an import because it's still owned by a foreign entity, but makes it very easy for American businesses to raise money when they need to expand and/or chase opportunity.

So, yes, the US had a trade deficit in terms of material goods and we cover that deficit by exporting dollars.

SO WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE TARIFFS NOW?

Well… to be perfectly honest, that's less clear. The Trump Administration has talked a lot about the tariffs and they say a lot of different things, many of which are inherently contradictory.

Let's take the obvious contradiction first, Trump and his advisors have repeatedly said that one purpose of the tariffs is to encourage American consumers to buy American products, but they've also repeatedly insisted that the tariffs won't lead to price increases because foreign companies will pay them. Which is… yeah, incoherent.

The way that tariffs encourage consumers to buy domestic products IS by increasing the prices of foreign products. Unless American producers have, for some mysterious reason, been artificially inflating their prices and can afford to sell at the price that foreign goods used to and, for some reason, are also willing to lower their prices down to that level with less competition around to force the issue, then, yeah, you will pay more for that avocado or sofa or household appliance.

You see this throughout all of their statements. They want to negotiate foreign tariffs down, but that won't be enough to get us to lower our own tariffs. They want other countries to commit to buying more American goods (reducing their trade deficits) while we commit to buying less of theirs and they'll do this for… some reason? The tariffs are intended to be an incentive for other countries to negotiate, but they're also intended to be permanent in order to address the balance of trade. The tariffs are going to dramatically reduce American imports, but they're also going to raise record amounts of revenue.

In other words, it's not clear exactly why the tariffs have been put in place. It's not clear what they're supposed to accomplish, what the end result is supposed to look like, or even if the end result will be the tariffs remaining in place or being lowered/removed.

What we do know is what's in place now, a blanket 10% tariff on all countries plus an additional percentage equal to half of the current US trade deficit with each country.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

All right, from here I'm leaving the realm of established facts and entering the realm of speculation. It's reasonably informed speculation, but speculation nonetheless. You've been warned.

Right now, markets are on a kind of up-and-down trajectory as they address the uncertainty of the current policy. Traders aren't sure whether the tariffs are intended to be permanent, a thought which drives the markets down, or just part of a negotiation, which doesn't necessarily drive the markets up but at least returns them largely to their previous trajectory. Republican Senators and Representatives are also in a kind of wait-and-see pattern as they voice the hope that the tariffs will be temporary and they won't have to address them legislatively.

The Trump Administration, on the other hand, isn't giving any indication that there's an end to the tariffs. They talk about ongoing negotiations, but it's not clear that any are actually happening or that they are willing to offer terms that other countries can agree to. On the other side, they are actively preparing and enacting even further tariffs in response to other countries that have retaliated against our tariffs with their own.

My take on it (speculation!) is that Trump himself is a true believer in tariffs. He doesn't see much, if any, value in foreign trade, believes that trade deficits actually represent a decline in American wealth, and, through all of this, is a genuinely mercurial personality, highly variable depending on the last person he has spoken to.

In addition to the economic and personal factors around this, there's also the political factors. Foreign countries aren't going to want to reward the United States for suddenly punishing them, wouldn't that just incentivize any American president to just raise tariffs whenever they felt like it like some kind of extortion racket? On the American side, Trump has sunk a huge amount of political capital into this and inflicted a lot of economic pain on Americans and it's going to be very difficult for him to walk away from it without something that he can point to as a significant win.

When you put those two things together, it seems unlikely that the "deals" he's promised are going to come through anytime soon and it's likely that he won't agree to remove or reduce the tariffs for many months or even years.

If they do stay in place, we're likely to see a significant contraction of the American economy and, if we're particularly unlucky, the dreaded outcome of "stagflation" in which the economy contracts AND prices go up at the same time. The fact is that American manufacturing is totally dependent on foreign components and building factories takes years, often even a decade, not to mention training up the workforce to run said factories. At best, American manufacturing will continue while charging much higher prices to offset the tariffs they have to pay on the parts they need. At worst, American manufacturing could collapse entirely.

And that's not even mentioning the other two sectors of the economy, agriculture and services. And, sure, there's a large segment of services that technically doesn't rely on the international economy. I mean, how many wedding planners or auto mechanics deal with customers outside American borders? But, of course, all of them buy stuff and much of that stuff comes from abroad and will be more expensive. Lots of American service providers also DO sell things to foreign customers and, with retaliatory tariffs, they're about to become a good deal less competitive in the international market. The same is true of American agriculture which is already hurting because USAID has cut off the purchases they used to make in order to feed hungry parts of the world.

If you add all that up, it's a massive hit to the American economy and one that's likely to have significant political consequences.

What can be done about it? Well, obviously I don't think that President Trump is going to back down based on where he seems to be at, but, in the American system, the president is not a king and there are other options. There are the courts obviously. There are two angles of attack I can see, the first is that Trump is using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to enact his tariffs, but that law doesn't actually authorize him to enact tariffs, and the second is that this use of it fairly blatantly contradicts the recently laid out "Major Questions Doctrine" that the Supreme Court enacted in response to Biden's attempt to cancel student loans. The short version of it is that tariff power is explicitly granted to Congress in the Constitution and the Major Questions Doctrine states that, unless it does so explicitly, Congress does not delegate power to the executive branch (the president) on issues of "major political or economic significance", which it seems like this would qualify as. Not that the court moves quickly, if the Supreme Court even hears arguments on this question by this fall that would be lightning fast by their standards.

Congress is also, theoretically, a player here. Congressional Republicans are, obviously, wary of crossing Trump in general, but Congress is absolutely capable of completely overruling the president on any matter if 2/3 of both houses agree. This would mean 76 out of 220 Republicans in the House (35% of them) and 20 out of 53 Republicans in the Senate (38% of them) being willing to join all Democrats and vote against Trump. I don't expect them to get to this point anytime soon and, if they're getting close to this point, I would expect that they would try to pressure the president to back off before they have to do so, but it's certainly not impossible, given the likely economic impact of the tariffs, to imagine that enough Republicans might fear enough for their own re-election to take such a stand.

THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT

All that said, I don't expect any significant opposition to the tariffs to come about quickly. They're likely to remain in place with rounds of counter-tariffs and counter-counter-tariffs coming. We've already seen other countries put their own counter-tariffs in place and the Trump Administration is preparing its own counter-counter-tariff against China as soon as this week.

Prices are likely to rise and some goods may also become scarce. Most American companies are holding off on hiring and many are considering cutting staff, so we're likely to see increased job losses and unemployment over the next several months. In addition, larger companies are holding back on purchases which will heavily impact smaller businesses that sell to them and many small businesses do import/export. Expect a wave of small business failures as well. The stock market has been buoyed somewhat by the hope that tariffs will, indeed, be negotiated away quickly but, when it becomes clear that they won't be, I would expect a serious crash.

In the middle of all of that, there are likely some countries that will negotiate, either because they're so dependent on American trade that they have no choice or because they can convince the Trump Administration to accept minor concessions. Expect the Trump Administration to make significant announcements about these and for temporary stock market rallies followed by continued declines once it becomes clear that there's not much to them.

Overall, it's going to be a painful summer for Americans and anyone connected to our economy, which, unfortunately, is most of the world, and it will likely take several months before we get to the point where anyone with power actually does something about it.

MY ADVICE

Honestly, my advice for an average person either in the US or in other countries is simple: batten down the economic hatches. Save as much as you can, cut as much as you can, and prepare for everything you buy to get more expensive. If you have investments, don't look at them until at least next year, they'll only freak you out and the last thing you need to do is hurt your long-term finances while trying to keep your short-term finances intact.

Take care of yourself, take care of your family, take care of your friends, and, if you have the economic and personal bandwidth to do so after all of that, take care of vulnerable people in your community. Find some hobbies that you can do to keep yourself sane and do whatever level of political organizing and activism you think you can handle.

I wish I had better news, but the current American political system is sort of locked in until at least 2027. Do the best you can and be prepared to come out swinging when it matters.

#politics #us politics #trump #tariffs #economics #long rant (tm)

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