#drafts: <25 from jan 2023

[taevayu]

☆★ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏── ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏@ ͏͏͏tae ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏: ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏  ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏🍓 ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏％ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ᶻz

╰ ╮ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏  ͏͏͏⇾ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏  ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏📨 ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ﹒ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ 🥤 ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ﹒ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ 🎧 ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ﹒ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ 📁 ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏ ͏͏͏ ͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ꜝ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏ ͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏ ͏͏͏₊ 

[steevejr]

charlie 2023 writing wrapped:

you created [5] more "normal" girls

you created [3] gay men

you created only [1] completely normal guy

you named [26] horses

your cast of margoverse characters rose to [65] and the wordcount to [326k]. yikes!

you made margo [35%] worse and [100%] nastier

you added [100%] more homoeroticism!

you wrote in [6] scenes of erotic violence

you wrote in [2] implied sex scenes

you made the lesbians [57%] meaner and [-25%] hotter

you earned [+1] diversity point by writing in [1] straight woman and lost [-10] diversity points by making the lesbians divorce

you [doubled] the amount of cigarette smokers! cool!

you wrote [1] good joke. that's a [100%] increase from last year, when you wrote [0] good jokes!

you increased transgenderism by [200%]. oops!

in all seriousness i wrote a lot this year!

i wrote all 32k of Jamal: the Movie in just november alone without really striving for that! and jan-march i started eniki's story all from scratch and wrote 25k words in a new world with a new cast :3 (CANT BELIEVE THAT WAS THIS YEAR)

and i polished up margo ch. 1-10 to a point that it can be shared with normal people! and i can't even track how much margo writing i do anymore. i think i wrote some part 3 this year? but i also did SO much editing and polishing on margo and co. so so much. so many threads pulled tight especially in pt 1 (which i havent touched since i wrote it in like 2021).

I think this has been one of my most productive years. aside from the one summer where I wrote like all of margo part 3 and 4 draft but I think that was still less than eniki+Jamal combined.

fave character created was vendrea. tied with jamal i suppose. second runner up is lamb from eniki's world. most intriguing character is kil. most fun ive had writing was jamal getting punched in that one scene.

most validating thing i was told this year is my adult friend read margo and eniki and said they could tell i wrote both because despite being different vibes they had a distinct writing style. (me??? style????? writing?????? whoag). and emily when they said my narrators are always very introspective and interesting to read (THATS EXACTLY THE GOAL!!!)

cant wait to see what i do next year :3

the story tally for posterity:

margo's bad week/jamal:the movie (326k)

margo 2: the week gets worse (10k lol)

12:04/eniki's story (25k)

neolithic werewolves (still unfinished lol)

middle school vampire rewrite

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

By: Genspect Australia

Published: Feb 1, 2025

For followers of the gender medicine debate in Queensland Australia, January 2025 has been a wild ride. With highs and lows already, we look forward to an eventful year. One thing is certain, this issue is not going away.

Jan 4, am: The Courier Mail in Queensland reported that the new Liberal-National government would be moving ahead to implement all 25 recommendations of the evaluation report on the Queensland Children’s Gender Service (QCGS) released in 2024. The report recommended an expansion of services state-wide, public-private partnerships to deliver services, and the previous Labor government had committed to a doubling of funding.

Jan 4, pm: In the afternoon, The Courier Mail article was amended to tell a completely different story with a new headline: Queensland Children’s Gender Service recommendations to be reviewed. Implementation was not now guaranteed, and the Minister for Health raised the possibility of ‘another review into the affirmative care model’.

Jan 5: The Qld Deputy Premier, Jarrod Bleijie and Health Minister Tim Nicholls appeared in a video posted on Facebook to state that ‘we do not support the expansion of gender services for children in Queensland’ and that they remained concerned about the use of puberty blockers in light of information that is coming in from around the world.

Jan 28: The Courier Mail ran a front page article titled CHILDREN’S GENDER SCANDAL with the online article heading being ”Rogue” gender clinics giving Qld kids puberty blockers without parental consent. The Minister stated that ‘The Cairns Sexual Health Service delivered an apparently unauthorised pediatric gender service without an agreed model of care to 42 pediatric gender service clients, 17 of whom were prescribed stage one or stage two hormone therapy in a way that may not align with treatment guidelines.’ Media reported that a whistle blower had come forward.

Jan 28: The Qld Health Department released a Health Service Directive pausing all new prescriptions of puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to those under 18. A number of reviews were announced: a clinical review and a health service review into the events in Cairns paediatric gender treatment, as well as ‘an independently led broad review of the evidence for Stage 1 and Stage 2 hormone therapies for children in Queensland.’ This is intended to be a ‘robust investigation of best practice in this field’.

Jan 31: The Federal Health Minister released a media statement to say that after taking advice from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and the Therapeutic Goods Administration he had asked the NHMRC ‘to undertake a comprehensive review of the Australian Standards of Care and Treatment Guidelines for Trans and Gender Diverse Children and Adolescents…and to develop new national guidelines.’ The guidelines are to be developed according to NHMRC Standards and the international GRADE approach to assessing evidence. (We assume that the involvement of the TGA is in response to the fact that puberty blockers are prescribed off-label in Australia, as the TGA has not approved them for treating gender dysphoria.)

At a press conference the same day, Minister Butler noted that the Australian Professional Association for Transgender Health (AusPATH) [whose members drafted the original guidelines] and Transcend, an LGBT+ support group representing families, had indicated last year that they thought the [AusPATH] guidelines needed updating. (Notably the guidelines were updated in 2023, without inclusion of any new published research post 2018. The update added two paragraphs addressing hormone provision by GPs outside of multidisciplinary hospital-based teams.)

The Minister also said that he had indicated to the Queensland Government that he did not think it would be appropriate for Queensland to continue its own evidence review given that a national approach was needed and the NHMRC was the pre-eminent body. Mr Butler reported that the NHMRC described evidence in the area as ‘contested and evolving’.

And that was just January.

--

By: Genspect Australia

Published: Jan 25, 2025

MEDIA RELEASE – Genspect Australia 28th Jan 2025

Genspect Australia commends the Queensland halt on children’s gender medicine

Genspect Australia welcomes today’s announcement by the Queensland Health Minister, Mr Tim Nicholls that puberty blocker and hormonal treatments of children with gender-related distress will be paused pending an independent review of the evidence for these treatments.

“This is good news that will protect Queensland children from irreversible medical harm, whilst the evidence for use of these drugs is re-examined. The 2024 NHS England Cass Review found that the ‘gender affirming’ model of treatment, as used in Queensland, rests on shaky foundations,” said Ms Judith Hunter, Genspect spokesperson.

Genspect Australia is a coalition of clinicians and parents promoting a non-medicalised path of treatment for gender-questioning young people.

Revelations of possible medical malpractice in prescription of blockers or hormones to children in the Cairns Sexual Health clinic precipitated the action by the Minister.

“Action has been taken because of events in Cairns, but the practices at the Queensland Children’s Gender Service (QCGS) in Brisbane have been similarly concerning”, said Ms Hunter.

A review of the QCGS in 2024 found that the clinic follows the “Australian Standards of Care” for treatment of children and adolescents with gender dysphoria, but according to Ms Hunter it missed the more fundamental point that the standards are not fit for purpose.

The Australian Standards of Care did not meet the standard required for consideration by the National Health and Medical Research Council, and received a failing grade for adherence to evidence in a 2024 review of international guidelines.

“It is deeply concerning that Queensland children are being treated with life-changing hormones under a protocol that fails basic quality controls,” said Ms Hunter.

Dr Jillian Spencer, a whistle-blowing child psychiatrist currently suspended from duty in Queensland Health for speaking out about her concerns on the practices at the QCGS, concurs. “It is bizarre that within the course of a decade, a radical treatment with cross-sex hormones that turns physically healthy children into medical patients for life became so widely accepted that clinicians are threatened with deregistration if they do not comply.

“Most of the children and young people presenting to gender clinics have complex mental health problems, autism, a history of trauma including sexual assault, or are just same sex-attracted and confused by their developing sexuality. Responsible medical practice should prioritise exploration of the origin of gender-related distress and focus on helping the child become comfortable in their body,” said Dr Spencer.

Dr Spencer welcomed the minister’s announcement. “This should give the many clinicians who are concerned for child safety the courage to speak up.”

The announcement has also been widely welcomed on social media by detransitioners and parents who question the safety of medicalisation for gender distress and advocate for less invasive treatments, such as psychotherapy.

“We frequently hear that treatment should be a medical discussion between families and doctors, not politicians, however treatment choices other than ‘affirming’ medicalisation have been discouraged and families have been shamed for asking questions” said a Genspect parent member who wished to remain anonymous. “We feel vindicated in our concerns”.

--

By: Genspect Australia

Published: Feb 1, 2025

MEDIA RELEASE – Genspect Australia 31st Jan 2025

Genspect Australia is pleased that the self-appointed ‘Australian Standards of Care and Treatment Guidelines for Trans and Gender Diverse Children and Adolescents’ are being reviewed and replaced, but cautions that the integrity of any new guideline rests on the appropriate selection of review panel members.

Genspect Australia is a coalition of clinicians and parents promoting non-medicalised and evidence-based care for children and young people with gender-related distress.

The Health Minister Mark Butler announced the guideline review today, and mentioned a key role for the Australian Professional Association of Transgender Health (AusPATH) in its initiation. “This rings alarm bells given the nature of AusPATH as an activist-led organisation that promotes radical ‘gender-affirming’ treatment as the only allowable path,” said Genspect spokesperson Judith Hunter.

The existing ‘Standards’ document was written by AusPATH members at the Royal Children’s Hospital in Melbourne and endorsed by the AusPATH board. In a published review of international guidelines commissioned by the NHS England Cass Review, the ‘Australian Standards’ was given a grade of only 19% for rigour of development which includes adherence to an evidence base, and the Minister today acknowledged that it was not NHMRC-approved.

The ‘Australian Standards’ document promotes immediate ‘affirmation’ of a gender-questioning child with a new name and pronouns, followed by puberty blockers if early in puberty, cross-sex hormones, and possible later surgery. This approach is now highly contested globally, with many countries taking a more neutral approach in recent years and prioritising psychological treatments.

“Irreversible sex-trait modification initiated when children are as young as 10 years old is an irresponsible and bizarre treatment for a condition that was unheard of 20 years ago”, said Ms Hunter. “We are witnessing an epidemic of transgender identification that occurs in clusters and peer groups and is undoubtedly driven by social contagion. To treat a transient identity in adolescence with irreversible and radical body modification defies the ‘do no harm’ principle in medicine. Review of these practices is way overdue.”

Genspect Australia is concerned about the timeline proposed for the review with interim conclusions expected on puberty blockers in mid-2026. “The UK has already looked at the evidence on puberty blockers and stopped prescription. Children are being harmed right now, with treatments that lead to sterility, loss of sexual function, and a myriad of long-term health problems from incontinence to risk of stroke. All states need to follow Queensland with a pause in new prescriptions,” said Ms Hunter.

The announcement of the review comes only three days after the Queensland Health Minister Tim Nicholls imposed a pause on new puberty blocker and hormone treatments in Queensland in response to alleged malpractice in the Cairns Sexual Health Service, and also outlined a review of the evidence for gender affirmative treatments of minors.

There is no dispute that gender-distressed young people and their families deserve the highest quality care, and Genspect Australia looks forward to engaging with the review process to ensure this outcome. “It is essential that the experiences of both detransitioners, who have been harmed by gender medicalisation and parents who advocate for a cautious ‘watchful-waiting’ approach are considered,” said Ms Hunter.

==

As WPATH demonstrates, when activists get involved, you end up with lies about puberty blockers and hormones, chapters about "eunuch identity," removal of all age restrictions, and handwaving all the warning signs, all the concerns, all the doubts.

[cyberbenb]

Ukraine is failing the mobilization test

Ukrainian society largely does not want to mobilize. Nearly 6 million Ukrainian men have not updated their information in military enlistment centers, and most of them likely don’t have grounds for a deferment or exemption. Forced mobilization of these men is categorically opposed by society. Rosy-cheeked aunts gather and shout “shame” at military enlistment officers tasked with searching for draft dodgers.

Society is also resistant to the mobilization of 25-year-old “children.” However, this sentiment does not extend to the sons of elites and deputies, who are readily and unhesitatingly deemed fit for the front lines. “Let (former Ukrainian President Petro) Poroshenko’s and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky’s sons fight,” they say. There is also a reluctance to pay more taxes — and I’m not even addressing the other duties or requirements imposed during martial law.

Furthermore, society is adamantly against sending soldiers from other branches of the military into infantry. Being in the infantry is not seen as an honor for Ukrainian soldiers but as something dirty and undignified — a form of punishment. At the same time, society strongly opposes sending poorly trained recruits into infantry. Ten years of war and three years of full-scale invasion weren’t enough to prepare Ukrainian men. Now, they must undergo at least six months of preparation, preferably abroad, where it’s easier to avoid service.

One can talk endlessly about drone warfare and a shortage of equipment and artillery, but it’s the infantry that holds the front line. The front line stretches 3,000 kilometers, with active combat continuing on a third of it. Society is unwilling to answer the question of where the military command should find the personnel to maintain the line against a vastly superior enemy — let the government solve this, but without mobilizing anyone and, God forbid, calling up 25-year-olds.

“One can talk endlessly about drone warfare and a shortage of equipment and artillery, but it’s the infantry that holds the front line.”

Let the MPs, prosecutors, and police officers go to war. Never mind that there aren't enough MPs and prosecutors to form even one regiment, and police officers have already been fighting with full brigades from the start.

Society has failed the test of maturity. The political opposition battles the government as though elections are just around the corner, despite the fact that elections cannot be held during martial law. Instead of seeking compromises with the opposition, the government prefers to keep political traitors and collaborators on a leash, cooperating with them while losing more and more credibility.

Ukrainian infantry take up zero positions in Kupiansk Frontline, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on Jan. 27, 2024. (Kostiantyn Liberov / Libkos / Getty Images)

A Ukrainian soldier stands in a trench near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on Oct. 25, 2023. (Kostya Liberov / Libkos / Getty Images)

One can rightfully criticize the government for its failures. It’s fair, they exist. But the government is a reflection of the views and politics of society. There is no demand for mobilization, and thus there is no adequate mobilization policy. There is no demand to transition the country’s economy to a wartime footing, and so there are no corresponding unpopular decisions.

However, the issue of the enemy’s total advantage in infantry remains unresolved. Yes, our partners are right. If we want the world to protect democracy in Ukraine, Ukrainians themselves must be the first to defend our democracy. There will be no negotiations on terms that suit us while the enemy continues to seize more and more territory. It’s time to remove the rose-colored glasses. The West favors strong partners, but as we retreat daily, we are not seen as strong, no matter how much weapons and money we receive. They are telling us this directly.

Are there issues with military management? Of course. But if you believe this is some secret plan by spies working for the enemy within our General Staff, I pity you. That’s conspiracy theory-level thinking, like believing the Earth is flat.

What reforms can we talk about when the only goal of the military command is to hold the front line from collapsing and prevent the enemy from breaking through into our rear? All available reserves are being used. That’s why we see mismatches of various units on small sections of the front line, leading to management problems.

In my opinion, there is no point in discussing management reforms without creating reserves that would ensure the implementation of those reforms. Forming these reserves is purely a political issue that must be addressed with political decisions. This question should be directed to political leaders, not military command.

Zelensky and Ukraine's parliament bear full responsibility for what is happening on the front line. These two political entities failed mobilization. To fix this, unpopular political decisions must be made, regardless of ratings and the opportunistic opposition, which will inevitably exploit this. Otherwise, we won’t make it.

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Trump sees peace in Ukraine as a deal but refuses to play his winning hand

The impending Donald Trump presidency has fueled market speculation that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could be reached soon — bolstered by Trump’s campaign trail rhetoric promising to end the war within days of taking office, if not sooner. Ukrainian Eurobonds have been among the best-per…

The Kyiv IndependentTimothy Ash

[coolasakuhncumber]

2024 in review

Look it's 14 Jan and this has been in draft for ages (months?) so it won't be great because I just don't really have the will to do it but if I don't do it tonight, it won't get done so here goes.

2024 was possibly the hardest year of my life thus far. It was traumatic and I don't want a year like it ever, ever again.

Work

It sucked. I was so full of hope when I went back into my long-term favourite work area in Oct 2023 and the rug was pulled out from underneath us in terms of leadership. A lot of lingering problems finally built up and it was left to fail. I acted in a higher role for many months, keen to prove myself, and I suffered for it. I burnt out, I cried in the workplace from being overwhelmed and at the end of my tether. I had colleagues pray with me when they saw me not coping.

I've blocked out a lot of the trauma in an act of self-preservation, but what I can objectively say is that of the 40 people in my work area at the start of the year, only 4 remained at the end of the year.

I had some very cool moments. My CEO and Minister knew who I was. They knew what I did and I (mostly) did a good job. I held the fort when I needed to do.

I stepped up. I worked too hard and stayed too long when it was all going down in flames. I wasn't listened to, I wasn't respected when I needed it, and the job held a lot of disappointments for me in the end.

I had evidence from prehab sessions that when I stopped working before the surgery, my blood pressure and heart rate dropped 10%. My body was in a fight/flight response for months. That's not ok and I'm trying really hard to be better with boundaries going forward.

My mum worked with me and I loved that, we did well together. I changed jobs in early December and she questioned why she was sticking around when I wasn't there anymore. She retired today, an excellent thing.

The new job is a much better culture, I quite like it. I'm frustrated by my direct manager who is acting in the role because they don't have the right skill set to do the job. I'm frustrated because I think I can do better. I know I can do better because I've done it better. I'm interviewing in 3 days so I guess we'll see what happens.

Health

It was a tough year for health. I spent almost 25% of my take-home income on my health in out of pocket expenses this year.

Heart. Lungs. The thing in April. Pneumonia. Awful. Prehab and rehab.

I had my heart reconstructed and it was such a good thing but also it was the most awful thing ever, you know? It was so so much harder than the other heart surgery I had half a lifetime ago. I'm not sure if I'm over the trauma hormones or if this is just my new experience of emotions.

Prehab was good, my lungs got well enough to have the heart surgery. Rehab was something I really broadly enjoyed. I liked most of the exercise physiologists, I liked most of the activities and developed some comraderie with people in my group classes. I really liked playing the Nintendo Wii balance games. It helped me get better.

Pneumonia and another stint in hospital in October, right after I got back to work kinda screwed up the recovery plan. I still have a post-pneumonia cough.

We're not talking about what happened in April. That stays between the three of us who know and the walls that listened while tears were shed.

I'm trying to keep things going and increase the exercise tolerance of this fleshy body and we're getting there slowly. Some days are harder than others.

Home

Tash move out. Time with parents. Erin. Maybe alone again?

My best friend and housemate of 7 years (Tash) moved out in Feb.

A friend (Ez) moved in the first week of May.

I spent late July - late Oct living with my parents (with the exception of a week when I went back to work before getting sick again).

Ez is moving out in a week and a half and I think it might be time to try living alone.

Friends

I like how again my friendship circle expanded with a new housemate. Brooke is the best.

The heart thing is weird, right? Because there were some massive risks and that's not a fun thing to tell people. It was confronting but also comforting coming up with a short list of people to give my mum to message and let them know I survived the surgery. Tash, Jay, Paul, Laura, Eva, Mel. That was my list and they're my people, you know?

I really liked using what non-work days I had to see Bridgette and her baby.

I feel a guilt that I couldn't be there for Tash when she and her long-term partner broke up. I feel weird that it happened while I was having my heart broken and put back together again. We both noted the last she went through a significant break up it was when I was in Sydney for 9 months with an eye injury. She is my platonic life wife.

There are some other women in my building who are cool and we're in the early days of having casual dinner hangs on Monday nights and I like it. A lot.

Family

Nephew. Aunt mode activated

He was born 3 days after my surgery and I love him so so so so much. What an incredible blessing it was to be in the same city for his first 4 months. I want more time with him. Perpetually.

I might one day move back to Sydney for him. Or have him come stay with me in school holidays.

There are two step-niblings coming in May 2025 and we're madly knitting baby blankets for them.

Romance

Dating. Eurgh.

I went on some dates earlier in the year but how do you bring the heart stuff into a romantic relationship? So I opted out for a while and just kept smooching Jay while it worked.

Love.

I love Jay and it remains as easy and as complicated as that. Our lives are becoming slightly more integrated and there's joy in that, foreshadowing the sadness of its inevitable end.

Travel

Non-existent

Other

Undercuts of joy. 10 years ago I would have considered this an unreasonable amount of money to spend on my hair. Even 2 years ago. But undercuts and some colour give me a dopamine hit.

Angie McMahon's gig with Laura and generally her second album bring me a lot of joy. Rediscovering Jack Garrett brought SO MUCH joy and a renewed habit of listening to music as I try to sleep. There's a perfect playlist in there somewhere.

I really loved that the Olympics and Paralympics were on during my surgery recovery.

I did a proper adult thing and did more renovations in getting my bedroom flooring replaced and I'm pretty happy with them.

I guess it doesn't feel like much when written out like that. So many really tough things all happened at the same time. The work and the prehab and the April thing and surgery fear and changing housemates and renovations and smashing the oven and all these bits and pieces. It was a lot. I want to rest intentionally (not just because I literally couldn't use my body after the surgery).

Desires for 2025

Slow down time. Do more things that demarcate the days and seasons. Do more that pushes me outside the comfort zone because that's how we grow.

Get to Cairns. Do the Indian-Pacific train ride with Mum. Drive from Perth to Broome and breathe in sea air.

Find a church community. Grow in faith.

[mariacallous]

Ukraine’s top military brass and political leadership are arguing over how best to replenish the ranks of the country’s battered armed forces after almost two years of fighting Russia. One question dominates this debate: if and when active-duty troops will be able to return home.

“Soldiers are tired, physically and mentally,” said Myroslav Borysenko, a former history professor at the prestigious Kyiv-Mohyla Academy who now serves as an artillery officer in a Marine brigade in southern Ukraine. Speaking to Foreign Policy in Kyiv during a rare, short break from his service, the 49-year-old Borysenko—who volunteered to join the military on the first day of Russia’s invasion in February 2022—said soldiers need to see a path out of the trenches. Currently, he said, they serve with no clear end in sight. Breaks like the one Borysenko enjoyed are a rare luxury that some soldiers have not experienced for more than a year.

As Ukraine enters its third year of war, victory against Russia seems an increasingly distant prospect. Last summer’s failed counteroffensive, combined with stalled Western aid, has put the Ukrainian military on the defensive. While Ukrainian authorities do not publish casualty figures, at least 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have likely died over the past two years, U.S. officials told the New York Times in August 2023.

Now, the need to rotate exhausted troops out of fighting is running up against a growing manpower shortage. Ukraine’s armed forces need more fighters: The country’s General Staff requested 500,000 additional men be mobilized to supplement the already 1.1 million-strong military, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a press conference on Dec. 19.

Further mobilization is broadly unpopular and has proved politically sensitive. Late last year, the matter was at the heart of the first open disagreement between Zelensky and his then-military chief Valery Zaluzhny, as the Ukrainian president proved reluctant to increase the pace of conscription. “Personally, I don’t see the point in mobilizing half a million people right now,” Zelensky told Britain’s Channel 4 News in an interview published on Jan. 20. Zaluzhny, who had been pushing for more troops, was dismissed on Feb. 8.

As Russia’s invasion began, Ukraine did away with its existing system of compulsory military service, which had required able-bodied men to serve for 12 to 18 months before the age of 27. Conscription unfolded in two annual waves.

Now, all able-bodied men ages 27 to 60 can be enlisted in the Ukrainian military at any point, regardless of their previous military experience. Men receive a summons to report to the local recruitment center, followed by a medical visit and a dispatch to an assigned military unit for training. Anyone over 18 can also elect to join the military, as Borysenko did, but the number of volunteers has decreased sharply since the first months of the war. It has become impossible to sustain the war effort without conscription.

Since late last year, Ukraine’s parliament has been embroiled in fierce debates over planned sweeping changes to the country’s mobilization system. A first bill submitted to parliament on Dec. 25 was withdrawn two weeks later after some provisions—including sanctions against draft dodgers that would have banned them from driving a car or buying a house—drew widespread criticism.

A second bill passed a first reading on Feb. 7, but debate once again emerged over several provisions, including sending summons electronically and allowing the state to freeze the bank accounts of draft dodgers. The new law would also lower the conscription age from 27 to 25 and give increased authority to military recruitment offices.

“It’s the paradox of the situation,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst based in Kyiv. “The majority of Ukrainians are patriotic, but many have this view that the military should be in charge of fighting and that civilians will simply support them,” he told Foreign Policy. “And of course,” he added, “people are afraid.”

The competing imperatives of conscripting more troops while also providing rest to worn-out soldiers are tightly linked. “The lack of a demobilization process makes mobilization even harder,” said Borys Khmilevskiy, a former combat medic who recently joined a team in Ukraine’s Defense Ministry brainstorming ways to upgrade the mobilization process. “For people who have not yet joined the military, the contract with the state currently sounds like, ‘You’re being recruited until you die or get injured really badly,’ and of course it’s not a good contract, so people don’t want to join.”

Last fall, following Ukraine’s unsuccessful summer counteroffensive, the question of if and how to demobilize troops moved to the political forefront.

Beginning in October 2023, small groups of soldiers’ wives and mothers took to the streets of several Ukrainian cities to demand the right for soldiers to demobilize after 18 months of service without the possibility of being enlisted again for another year and a half. The protests have been ongoing, with the latest ones unfolding in more than a dozen Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, on Feb. 11.

“We know it’s not up to us to decide that length, but there needs to be a term of service,” said Anastasia Chuvakina, a 22-year-old dance teacher from Odesa. She told Foreign Policy that her husband has able to visit home only three times, for just a handful of days each, since the start of the Russian invasion.

The absence of any clear demobilization procedure so far has also strained military-civilian relations, with resentment growing among some front-line troops who feel that some men in the rear are actively avoiding conscription.

“I was walking in the streets [in Kyiv], I saw all these fit men in civilian clothes, and I thought, that guy would be great for the airborne troops, that one would be perfect for the Marines,” said Borysenko, the artillery officer. “We’re tired, and we feel like society isn’t ready to properly prepare for this war, doesn’t see that we need to be rotated out.”

Meanwhile, Borysenko said fighting has grown more grueling as front-line troops have had to adapt to an ammunition shortage and technological change. “One year ago, nighttime could be a time for sleeping on the front line, but these past few months, the enemy received drones with thermal and night vision. And it’s changed everything,” he added.

But demobilization is a tough sell for the government when “the shortage [of manpower] is palpable,” Ukrainian military spy chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Financial Times in January. The tens of thousands of soldiers who would leave the army if an official demobilization period were to be declared would need to be replaced by fresh troops—just as Kyiv struggles to find willing people for the job. “I think the bill introducing demobilization will pass,” said Fesenko, the political analyst, “but I don’t think it will be applied in practice, not for now at least.”

Ukrainian authorities, both military and political, have acknowledged front-line troops’ exhaustion but are looking to increase breaks rather than set up a demobilization process. The first meeting between Zaluzhny’s successor, Oleksandr Syrskyi, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on Feb. 9 “focused on [setting up] an effective system allowing for troop rotation and rest periods for units,” according to a government press release.

But some argue the reform should still be impactful in the long term. “I think we need to rebuild the entire system—mobilization, demobilization, guarantees and compensations for soldiers and veterans, everything,” Khmilevskiy said. “Because if we want to survive, we need to build a system that can work for decades.”

[thefearandnow]

Happy New Year! 🥂

I've had this post saved for a while because since coming back to tumblr I've found it to be a really great space for setting myself accountable creatively. I've had a lot of ideas for goals I want to set for myself in 2023 so I'm gonna pin this post and keep coming back to it with progress/check ins. I'm also gonna queue this post for every month so I don't forget to revisit my list. Some stuff has to do with creating and some stuff are just personal things ✨

💀🎙 Write and produce monthly episodes of The Fear and Now

For my graduate degree I produced an analysis podcast about horror in fiction podcasts and part of changing my tumblr to The Fear and Now was partially to motivate me to make new episodes for the first time in more than 2 years. I'm basically going to reboot it entirely because I've become a much different producer since I started it but I'm excited to start working on it again. First step will be to relisten to the old episodes which is honestly what I'm most avoiding but I'm excited to do more analytical writing, research and use my improved editing skills to give it a facelift.

0/12

🎧 Write and post at least 25 Audio Drama Sunday posts

I've really been enjoying using tumblr as a way to recap my listening and get through my backlog of podcasts I want to listen to. On top of that it's been a great way to find new podcasts and support creators so I'm hoping to stay on a semi-weekly schedule but I'm also trying to set the expectation a little low 😅

1/25

🦉🌶 Finish writing the fiction podcast I started (8 episodes)

In 2022 I started writing my first ever fiction podcast, something I'd been wanting to do for years. It's been on hiatus for a few months but I want to come back around to it and at least get all the episodes in rough draft from.

2/8

✏️ Try NaNoWriMo for the first time

I discovered National Novel Writing Month (through a discord I'm a part of) this year and was a little too late to the party to try it myself but I'm really drawn to the idea of trying it November 2023. Of course, I think I'm gonna need to practice a lot to get myself prepared so I'm going to start setting daily word count goals every month.

Jan: 500 words | 75%

Feb: 500 words

📖 Read at least one novel a month

In 2022 some friends started a book club and it's really helped me get back into the habit of having structured reading time. Looking forward to reading more and keeping track of the new books I'll read in the new year!

1/12

💻 Give more feedback to writers/creators on tumblr

I've started following a few different writers on tumblr whose short stories I really enjoy and I want to get more into the habit of reaching out and telling them what I love about their work. It's one of those things that I've only recently spent much time thinking about but I think often I'm a passive enjoyer of content and want to actively be more involved as an audience member in 2023.

🎶 Self publish a mixtape of instrumentals

In 2022 I got into a routine of posting quick little sample-based sketches and beats. In the new year I want to take the best of those sketches and make them into a proper mixtape/EP that I'll publish via Bandcamp. I'm not really sure how to track the progress on something like this but I know I just want to have what I consider a finished project by this time next year.

✏️ Try NaNoWriMo for the first time.

I discovered National Novel Writing Month (through a discord I'm a part of) this year and was a little too late to the party to try it myself but I'm really drawn to the idea of trying it November 2023. Of course, I think I'm gonna need to practice a lot to get myself prepared so I'm going to start setting daily word count goals every month.

Jan: 500 words

✨ Explore my hair/gender expression

This one is literally impossible to quantify but it's something I want to reflect on and be more actively engaged with this year. So much of my life I feel like I've tried to ignore thinking about and exploring my own style and gender and its only recently that I've felt some regret about it. I want to buy new clothes and try new hairstyles and feel more comfortable in my own skin and I think I've found that for me I need to write it somewhere if I actually want to do the damn thing 😅 so this is me doing that lol

[historyhermann]

Climate Change and the Military: Examining the Pentagon’s Integration of National Security Interests and Environmental Goals under Clinton [Part 11]

Continued from Part 10. These are the links to documents used in parts 1-10, so it is a bit long.

This post is reprinted from the National Security Archive website and my History Hermann WordPress blog. Archived here.

© 2022-2023 Burkely Hermann. All rights reserved.

The Documents

Document 1

Position Paper, Department of State, Subject: U.S. Comments on Issues Related to Guidelines for National Communications

Apr 15, 1996

Source: Department of State FOIA

Department of State offers views on temperature adjustments, global warming potential, marine bunkers, and related issues relating to guidelines for creating national communications under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. While national security is not discussed in this position paper, on pages 3-5 the importance of bunker fuels to U.S. climate negotiators and its parallel to imported electricity are mentioned.

Document 2

Letter, United States Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change, Jonathan C. Pershing to Jan Corfee-Morlot, OECD, Subject: U.S. Comments on Climate Change Papers

Jan 24, 1997

Source: Department of State FOIA

Jonathan C. Pershing provides U.S. comments on proposed emissions trading schemes, possible changes to electricity sectors, sustainable transport, marine bunker fuel taxes, and other matters. Pershing, in an attachment entitled “Marine Bunker Fuels Taxes Paper,” comprising pages 22 to 25 of the document, comments that the U.S. delegation is pleased with changes to provisions on a tax on marine bunker fuels, and implies U.S. opposition to such taxes, noting their effects on global shipping. While neither the military nor national security is mentioned, there is no doubt that such taxes would affect U.S. military operations.

Document 3

Report, Department of State Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Office of Global Change, Doc No. 10496, Subject: Climate Action Report [Non-Classified]

Jun 30, 1997

Source: UNFCCC  (https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/usnc2.pdf)

This climate change policy report reviews factors impacting U.S. environmental policy and assesses greenhouse gas inventory, plans to mitigate climate change, and climate change adaptation.  It also highlights U.S. climate research, education, and international activities. On page 46, the Department of Defense (DOD) is described as the biggest energy consumer within the federal government. Page 78 notes cooperation between the DOD and Department of Energy (DOE) on an energy efficiency program. Later pages, for example 155, 160, 187, describe the DOD as “involved in climate change issues” and working with the EPA, DOE, NASA, USDA, and Department of State (DOS) in joint initiatives. The report also notes, on page 169, the Pentagon’s involvement in developing biomass energy, and (on page 279) its role in developing energy efficient lighting products in coordination with DOE.

Document 4

Memorandum, Department of State Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment and Development, Rafe Pomerance to Eileen B. Claussen [et al.], Draft, Annotated Copy, Subject: Principals' Meeting: Developing Country Paper [Unclassified]

Jul 15, 1997

Source: Department of State FOIA

Rafe Pomerance forwards to 20 different agencies this draft paper explaining the U.S. position on controlling greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries, incentives to encourage developing countries to support the U.S. proposal for the Kyoto Protocol, views of other negotiating blocs, domestic opposition, and negotiating strategies. On page 2, Sherri Goodman, deputy undersecretary of defense for environmental security, is mentioned, indicating DOD’s continuing involvement in climate change policy and negotiations.

Document 5

Letter, Department of Defense Deputy Secretary, John J. Hamre to Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, Subject: National Security Provisions in Kyoto Protocol

Sep 30, 1997

Source: Department of State FOIA

Deputy Secretary of Defense Hamre, in a letter to Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, calls on the State Department to "protect national security" by adding specific provisions to the Kyoto Protocol. The document directly states some of the DOD’s core concerns regarding climate change negotiations and spells out what the Pentagon wants to see within the Kyoto Protocol, including emissions reductions which are “consistent with national security.”

Document 6

Memorandum, National Economic Council Director, Annotated Copy, Eugene B. ("Gene") Sperling [et al.] to President Clinton, Subject: Climate Change Decision Memorandum

Oct 18, 1997

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

Eugene B. ("Gene") Sperling, Katie McGinty, Daniel Tarullo, Jim Steinberg, and Todd Stern request decisions from President Clinton on climate change policy measures to advance U.S. environmental goals domestically and internationally. On the final page of this memorandum, the authors write that the DOD is seeking an exemption under the climate treaty due to concerns that “fuel reduction requirements could hamper military operations.” They note that while the president’s advisers agree with the DOD’s objective, they may disagree on the scope of the exemption. They further indicate that they are working with the DOD to clarify the Pentagon’s objectives, resolve differences in positions, and note they will provide further information on the issue the following week. Although this document calls it a “national security exemption,” it is, more accurately, a set of exemptions.

Document 7

Briefing Book, White House Office of Environmental Initiatives, Subject: Climate Change Policy Papers [Unclassified]

Oct 22, 1997

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

The White House Office of Environmental Initiatives describes principles guiding President Clinton's climate change policies and frameworks for action and presents fact sheets on various environmental issues. Reflecting the scope of the military’s involvement with climate policy, the DOD is mentioned on page 16 as working with the DOE, Department of Housing and Urban Development, EPA, Department of Labor, Department of Commerce, and FEMA, along with industry partners, on the Partnership for Advancing Technologies in Housing. Such a program is committed to developing, demonstrating, and deploying “housing technologies and practices” in order to make cheaper homes that are more resistant to disaster, more sustainable, and “provide a safer working environment.”

Document 8

Briefing Paper, Office of Science and Technology Policy, Subject: Climate Change: U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program

May 14, 1998

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

Office of Science and Technology Policy advisers Rosina M. Bierbaum, Peter Backlund, and Susan Bassow provide background, scientific focus, research priorities, talking points, and answers to questions about interagency U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program (USGCRP). On page 1 of this briefing paper, the DOD’s involvement in USGCRP and cooperation with other agencies are mentioned. This document serves as further evidence of the DOD’s integral involvement in climate change policy during the Clinton administration.

Document 9

Memorandum, United States Special Representative to the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development and Special Negotiator on Climate Change, Mark G. Hambley,  Subject: COP-4, Supplement to Update No. 3 for Tues/Wed, Nov. 3/4, 1998

Nov 3, 1998

Source: Department of State FOIA

State Department negotiator Mark Hambley forwards notes taken by U.S. diplomats on meetings at the fourth Conference of Parties to U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. He mentions that Holly Kaufman, one of the DOD representatives in Buenos Aires, took notes on an afternoon meeting of the U.N. Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), and joint meeting of SBSTA and the U.N. Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). In her notes, on pages 5 and 6, she describes discussions on environmental efficiency, flexible mechanisms within the Kyoto Protocol, a U.S. proposal for consideration of other climate models, the fact that some countries favor a continuation of the joint implementation phase, and additional topics. While national security is not directly mentioned, it does reveal the DOD’s interest in these topics, fitting with the Pentagon’s focus on “environmental security” which took center stage in the 1990s.

Document 10

Report, United States Delegation to Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Subject: Report on Afternoon SBSTA Session

Nov 4, 1998

Source: Department of State FOIA

William S. Breed, Dan Benton, and Paul Schwengels report on the fourth Conference of the Parties to U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting on technological development, technology transfers, and climate research and observation. While Breed is an environmental scientist who worked for the DOE’s Office of Policy and International Affairs, and Schwengels worked as a senior program manager for the Environmental Protection Agency, Benton worked for the DOD. He was the Pentagon’s Associate General Counsel. His involvement indicates the Pentagon’s interest in technology transfer, development, climate research, observation and involvement in climate change negotiations.

Document 11

Memorandum, United States Special Representative to the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development and Special Negotiator on Climate Change, Mark G. Hambley, Subject: COP-4, Supplement to Update No. 6 for Friday, November 6, 1998

Nov 6, 1998

Source: Department of State FOIA

Mark Hambley forwards to U.S. government colleagues more notes taken at meetings of the fourth Conference of Parties to United Nations Convention on Climate Change.  Topics include flexible mechanisms, compensation for developing countries affected by climate change, and scientific research and observation. Hambley attaches notes, on pages 6 and 7, by Colonel Benton, one of the DOD’s representatives, on the afternoon SBSTA session, which summarize the discussion by delegations about climate change research, observation, and methodological issues. Benton summarizes the argument by Austria, on behalf of the European Union, that bunker fuels should be included in national totals. He then notes U.S. pushback to this suggestion and describes a Swiss call for the SBSTA/SBI looking at chlorofluorocarbon substitutes rather than at a meeting of the Montreal Protocol parties.

Document 12

Speech, Department of State Under Secretary for Economic, Business and Agricultural Affairs, Stuart E. Eizenstat, Subject: Remarks Prepared for Delivery by Stuart E. Eizenstat, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs, UNFCCC Fourth Conference of Parties, Buenos Aires, Argentina [Non-Classified]

Nov 12, 1998

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

Stuart Eizenstat addressed the fourth Conference of Parties to U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, calling for further environmental cooperation to combat climate change.  His prepared remarks highlight the Kyoto Protocol's flexible mechanisms, including emissions trading schemes, emissions reductions by developing countries, carbon sinks, and treaty compliance. On the second page of his speech, he says that the U.S. will sign the Kyoto Protocol and that Washington is “guided by the firm belief that the signing will serve our environmental, economic, and national security goals.” The latter phrase refers in part to the accomplishment of the military’s objectives in Kyoto the previous year at the third Conference of Parties.

Document 13

Memorandum, United States Delegation to Bonn Climate Change Conference, Mark. G. Hambley, Subject: Supplement to Climate Change Update No. 7 for June 7/8, 1999

Jun 8, 1999

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

U.S. negotiator Hambley forwards reports from the Bonn climate change conference on meetings regarding developing country communications and bunker fuels. In the attached report, on pages 3 and 4, by Kevin Green of the Department of Transportation (DOT), he notes consultations with Swiss representative Jose Romero and other delegates about bunker fuels. Even though national security is not explicitly mentioned, this document indicates the continued importance to U.S. negotiators of bunker fuels as a solvable issue.

Document 14

Memorandum, United States Delegation to Bonn Climate Change Conference, Mark. G. Hambley, Subject: Update No. 8 for the Subsidiary Body Meetings of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (June 8/9, 1999)

Jun 9, 1999

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

Climate negotiator Mark Hambley provides an informal report of meetings of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation and Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice. He notes, on page 4, that one of the more controversial issues for nongovernmental organizations is on the proposed decision about bunker fuels, saying the ins and outs of the discussion are covered in DOD and Department of Transportation (DOT) reports.

Document 15

Memorandum, Department of State Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Office of Global Change, Duncan Marsh to David B. Sandalow, NSC Council on Environmental Quality, Subject: Clearance Request on Draft Response Letters to NGO

Jul 29, 1999

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

Duncan Marsh forwards responses to letters from environmental groups in preparation for a meeting on carbon sinks and related issues. This includes a summary by Frank Loy and Roger Ballantine, on pages 3 and 4, of national security exemptions secured during the third Conference of Parties, and the work by the IMO and ICAO to reduce bunker fuel emissions, reporting of said emissions, and other matters. Dan Benton, a DOD representative, is mentioned on page 5 as receiving Loy and Ballantine’s memorandum. One of the responses, from the US Climate Action Network and affiliated groups, includes a discussion of bunker fuels, on page 11, and calls for closing the “international bunker fuel loophole.” The latter is a reference to the military exemptions gained by DOD at the third Conference of Parties.

Document 16

Briefing Memorandum, Department of State Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, R. Tucker Scully to Under Secretary of State Frank E. Loy, Annotated Copy, Subject: Meeting with Environmental NGOs, Monday, August 2, 1999, at 2:30-4:00 p.m. in Room 1207

Jul 31, 1999

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

R. Tucker Scully provides background information to Frank E. Loy, and outlines the U.S. position ahead of a meeting with environmental groups about carbon sinks and other related issues. He notes, on pages 7 to 9, the claim by environmental non-governmental organizations that the U.S. is undermining text proposed on international bunker fuels during climate change negotiations. He points to the agreement in Kyoto on the issue and worries that efforts to resolve this issue could “raise questions about the exemption for military operations.” He further argues that diplomats have gone to “great lengths” to refute accusations that the Kyoto Protocol undermines national security. He adds that environmental NGOs can be satisfied by pointing to future action by the ICAO and IMO on bunker fuels. His points are reinforced by talking points for meetings with environmental groups outlined on pages 19 to 22.

Document 17

Memorandum, United States Special Representative to United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development and Special Negotiator on Climate Change, Mark G. Hambley, Subject: SB13, Update No. 13 for Wednesday, 13 September 2000 [Unclassified]

Sep 13, 2000

Source: Clinton Library FOIA

State Department negotiator Mark Hambley reports on meetings of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change subsidiary bodies in Lyon, France, ahead of climate change negotiations in The Hague. This includes noting, on page 4, that no decision had yet been taken on bunker fuels and pointing out DOD representative Dave Peters as being present at the conference. Hambley includes a report from Peters on page 8, which focuses on greenhouse gas emissions from international transportation, noting responses from the Swiss, French, and U.S. delegations on this issue.

[iihfworldsjunior]

Hockey Canada announces World Juniors selection camp roster

In less than a month left until the puck drops at the 2022 IIHF World Junior Championship, Hockey Canada, in partnership with the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) has released 35 athletes who been invited for the Canada’s National Junior Team selection camp scheduled for December. 9-12, in Calgary.

Canada's Cole Perfetti (11) celebrates his goal with teammates against Russia during first period IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship action in Edmonton on Monday, January 4, 2021.

Hockey Canada has announced its list of 35 under-20 players bound for Canada's 2022 National Junior Team selection camp beginning Dec. 9 in Calgary.

The roster includes three returning players from the silver-medal 2021 World Junior team: Dylan Garand (G), Kaiden Guhle (D) and Cole Perfetti (F).

Among other notables: 2021 No. 1 NHL draft pick Owen Power, projected 2022 No. 1 overall pick Shane Wright and 2023 draft-eligible phenom Connor Bedard.

As reported by Jeff Marek on Tuesday, Brandt Clarke, the eighth overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft and the OHL's top-scoring defenceman, is not part of the selection camp roster. Quinton Byfield, who is out indefinitely with a left ankle fracture, was also kept off the roster despite playing for Team Canada in 2020 and 2021.

Six players representing Canadian NHL teams are on the list: Guhle (MTL), Xavier Bourgault (EDM), Ridly Greig (OTT), Perfetti (WPG), Joshua Roy (MTL) and Ryan Tverberg (TOR).

The 2022 World Junior Ice Hockey Championships take place in Edmonton and Red Deer, Alta., and begin on Dec. 26, 2021, with the gold medal game on Jan. 5, 2022.

Canada will choose its 25-player roster following selection camp, and opens the IIHF men's under-20 tournament on Boxing Day versus the Czech Republic. Austria, Germany and Finland are also in Canada's pool.

Ottawa 67's head coach Dave Cameron will coach Canada. He was also head coach in 2011, when Canada lost the final 5-3 to Russia, in Buffalo, N.Y. Canada will play pre-tournament games Dec. 19 against Switzerland, Dec. 20 versus Sweden and Dec. 22 against Russia.

Last year, Canada fell in the gold medal game to the United States.Team USA announcedits selection camp roster on Tuesday.

[techcrunchappcom]

New Post has been published on http://techcrunchapp.com/why-tom-izzo-and-michigan-state-basketball-might-get-emoni-bates-for-two-years-detroit-free-press/

Why Tom Izzo and Michigan State basketball might get Emoni Bates for two years - Detroit Free Press

CLOSE

Emoni Bates scores 63 points and grabs 21 rebounds in Ypsilanti Lincoln’s double-overtime 108-102 win over Chelsea on Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2020.

Detroit Free Press

Ten years ago, Tom Izzo waited to hear from LeBron James.

The call never came.

Izzo turned down a chance to jump to the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers and instead remained at Michigan State. Less than a month later, James announced on ESPN he would be taking his talents to Miami.

It turned out to be the right move for Izzo.

[ 25 years of ‘Mr. March’: Preorder our updated Tom Izzo book today! ]

And on Monday, he finally landed his generational talent in Emoni Bates.

Emoni Bates committed to Michigan State on ESPN’s SportsCenter show Monday. (Photo: ESPN)

Now, he must wait to see when – and if – that union can happen. And if it does, there is a chance Izzo could have the budding superstar for two years, and not one.

Bates’ stunning midday announcement to commit to MSU could eventually be “The Decision” for the Spartans. In two years at Ypsilanti Lincoln, the athletic 6-foot-9 forward has become one of the most heralded high school prospects in the country, perhaps since James skipped college for the NBA nearly two decades ago.

“I’m not sure what the future may hold,” Bates said as he and family members hoisted Spartan hats to their heads, “but as I do know right now, I will be committing to Michigan State University.”

[ Want more MSU news? Download our free mobile app on iPhone and Android! ]

Road ahead

Bates is Izzo’s first commitment for the 2022 class. But a lot can transpire between now and then that will weigh on his decision to head to MSU or go elsewhere.

He could even stick around East Lansing for two years.

Ypsilanti Lincoln’s Emoni Bates drives against Ann Arbor Huron during the first half at EMU’s Convocation Center in Ypsilanti, Tuesday, March 3, 2020. (Photo: Junfu Han, Detroit Free Press)

• The most interesting possibility is Bates could reclassify and forego his senior season in high school to enter college a year early, and join guard Pierre Brooks II as part of the Spartans’ 2021 class. Both Bates and his father, Elgin, told ESPN’s Jeff Borzello they have not made any decision; however, Sports Illustrated’s Michael Rosenberg reported Monday that Bates will indeed reclassify. “After this year it will tell me everything I need to know,” Bates told ESPN. “I can’t decide on that right now. After this year, if it’s too easy, I might – but if not, I’m probably going to play another year.”

His father, who is creating his own prep school, Ypsilanti Prep Aim High, told ESPN: “By the end of his junior year, he will be in position to graduate. We don’t know yet. It’s up to him, it’s a day-by-day thing for him. It might be a decision he decides to make later on.”

[ Windsor: Emoni Bates is a monumental win for MSU, even if he never plays ]

• Bates’ birthday makes any decision to reclassify more about going to college early, not about turning pro.

Experts believed as recently as last year the league would lower its age limit for the draft from 19 to 18 (currently a player must turn 19 during the draft’s calendar year and be one year removed from high school). It has been a hot topic in college and the NBA for the latter part of the 2010s, and many felt Bates would become the first beneficiary of a potential rules change after he turns 18 in 2022.

However, talks about eliminating the “one-and-done” rule went from seemingly a done deal in early 2019 to an impasse during ongoing labor negotiations this winter. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski in April reported the rules change may not be on the table until 2025 at the earliest now as part of the next collective bargaining agreement.

Bates was born Jan. 28, 2004, meaning he cannot enter the NBA draft until 2023 after he turns 19. Even if he reclassifies, he would not be eligible for the 2022 draft, which could allow him to stay at MSU for two seasons.

Ypsilanti Lincoln’s Emoni Bates (21) walks off the court after the Railsplitters won 72-56 over Howell at MHSAA Division 1 semifinal at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Friday, March 15, 2019. (Photo: Junfu Han, Detroit Free Press)

• Bates also would not meet the G League’s minimum age requirement of 18 for the 2021-22 season, and would not be eligible for the NBA’s development system draft until the 2022-23 season.

He could opt to not reclassify, play his final two years of high school at his father’s newly created Ypsilanti Prep Academy and then enter the G League. Or Bates could reclassify, play one year at MSU and then test the G League. The G League recently began pulling some high-end players away from colleges – including No. 1 2020 prospect Jalen Greens and former Michigan commit Isaiah Todd – with a boost of $500,000 salaries.

However, Bates told ESPN he would prefer to play college basketball.

“It’s good for certain players. That’s a lot of money,” he said. “I don’t really plan on, I don’t think I’ll do it. It’s good for some people, but I don’t think I’ll head that route.”

• Discussions are urgent and ongoing across the country within the NCAA, state and federal legislatures about athletes being able to financially capitalize on their names, images and likenesses. And a megahyped star on the rise like Bates would be a major test case of a college athlete’s peak value for endorsements.

In May, the Michigan House of Representatives with a 94-13 vote approved a bipartisan plan to allow college athletes to earn compensation on their likeness. Many of those guidelines would take effect before the end of 2022 if the state Senate approves the bill, which would give Bates a chance to financially capitalize on his status as one of the game’s best prospects.

Those laws and rules also could be expedited as a growing number of states are enacting legislation that allow athletes to begin to exert their name, image and likeness rights as soon as next summer.

• Bates could follow the overseas route LaMelo Ball and a handful of other top prospects have taken until becoming eligible for the draft, and earn a sizeable paycheck. It would not expedite Bates’ path to the NBA because of his birthday.

And that also seems like the least likely option given Bates’ strong feelings for Izzo and MSU’s coaching staff.

“I want to say thanks to coach Iz and (assistant coach Mike Garland) for staying with me since I was younger and being there through the process,” Bates said on ESPN. “They’ve been showing love to me since I was in seventh grade, they’ve been recruiting me hard since then. I just know they’re showing that their love is genuine, and they’ve just been there for a long time.

“I’m big on loyalty, and they showed me all the loyalty.”

Coup for two?

Tom Izzo and wife Lupe, right, celebrate Michigan State’s 68-67 win over Duke in the NCAA East Region Final, Sunday, March 31, 2019 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. (Photo: Kirthmon F. Dozier, Detroit Free Press)

Izzo could be rewarded for that persistence – potentially for two years — if Bates doesn’t turn pro.

MSU’s coaches cannot talk about recruits until they sign a letter of intent. But there is no need to when that player is the consensus No. 1 in his class and considered among the best prospects this century.

Bates’ announcement is as big as when Magic Johnson said after winning the 1977 state championship as a senior at Lansing Everett that, “Next year, I will be attending Michigan State University.” That announcement gave Izzo’s mentor, Jud Heathcote, the key piece for the Spartans’ first national championship in 1979, and Johnson left for the NBA after his second season at MSU.

Izzo has had his share of big-time recruits, with Mateen Cleaves’ decision in 1996 the building block for the Spartans’ 2000 national championship. In recent years, Miles Bridges in 2016 and Jaren Jackson Jr. a year later became the Hall of Fame coach’s highest-rated recruits, along with Kelvin Torbert in 2001.

But none compare to Bates, who has been touted as the nation’s best in his age group – and then some – since he was throwing down dunks as a lanky seventh grader.

High school basketball star Emoni Bates looks on during the second half of the Michigan State vs. Maryland game on Saturday, Feb. 15, 2020, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. (Photo: Nick King/Lansing State Journal)

One of his earliest suitors was Izzo, who spent any chance he could driving to see Lincoln play the past two years. Bates was a frequent visitor to MSU and befriended a number of the Spartans, and Izzo reportedly was the only college coach to contact him at midnight on June 15 – the first moment he could talk to players who finished their sophomore season.

And those years and that late-night phone call paid off at 1:48 p.m. Monday, when Bates beamed as he put on the white hat with the green Spartan logo.

This was not Chris Webber or Jabari Parker, the two players who got away from Izzo that still he regrets. Forget about LeBron, who he admittedly would have loved to coach.

Bates could be Izzo’s Magic and help win him a second national title in the twilight of his coaching career. And maybe, like Magic, he’ll even have two years to do it.

That’s if Izzo’s biggest dream becomes a reality.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @chrissolari. Read more on the Michigan State Spartans and sign up for our Spartans newsletter.